“Need a job? Good luck.”

From the NY Daily News:

New York economic slump! ’08 forecast looks at few new jobs, ballooning deficit

Need a job? Good luck.

New York will gain just 500 jobs this year – if we’re lucky – according to a scary new city forecast that sees slowdowns on Wall Street, stagnant real estate prices and an ocean of red ink in the city budget future.

Things won’t improve until next year, when city employment will rise by 20,800 jobs – compared with 41,100 jobs last year, the Independent Budget Office said.

“The fiscal picture has dimmed considerably,” IBO spokesman Doug Turetsky told the Daily News yesterday. “There is a fairly significant risk that things could get worse.”

If Wall Street loses even more money this year, the agency expects the city’s jobs will shrink by 8,700 this year, rebounding by just 15,000 jobs next year – and that’s if the national economy doesn’t sink into a recession.

“While there appears little reason to think our assumptions are too pessimistic, there is a reasonable chance that they are overly optimistic,” the IBO said.

The city housing market also is projected to finally cool down as prices stagnate or fall and fewer homes and apartments change hands. Commercial real estate deals also are slowing down, the IBO says, and business profits are shrinking – which means business taxes will fall by $500 million next year and property transfer taxes will fall by $1 billion.

“The Manhattan real estate market is still holding firm. The rest of the city is weakening,” Turetsky said. “The good, strong corporate profits seem to be coming to an end.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 255 Comments

Manhattan declines in ’08?

From PRWeb:

Year-End Report: Manhattan Rental Market Resilient, though Not Invincible in ’07

The Real Estate Group New York (TREGNY) released today their first Year-End Manhattan Rental Market Round-up. The study, which synthesizes data from all of TREGNY’s 2007 monthly Market Reports, evaluates the state of the Manhattan rental market based on its performance throughout the year. Intended as a guide for renters, owners and developers alike, TREGNY’s Year-End Report examines notable trends, average asking rents and price changes that occurred from January through December to provide insight on the health of the city’s rental market across different neighborhoods, apartment sizes and service levels.

According to the report, the Manhattan rental market remained relatively strong throughout 2007, despite the ongoing credit crunch and housing fallout. Citywide price gains across most categories averaged between 2.2% and 6.5%, with the exception of non-doorman two-bedroom buildings, whose rents climbed by an impressive 14.1% since this time last year. Individual Manhattan neighborhoods, however, experienced more dramatic gains–and in some cases–losses.

“The citywide numbers we’re seeing do indicate healthy growth, which suggests that Manhattan real estate has so far managed to weather the nervous conditions of a weakening U.S. housing market,” says Daniel Baum, co-founder and COO of The Real Estate Group. “On the other hand, significant rental declines in some areas of the city and all-around softening prices in the fourth quarter of ’07 may be foreshadowing declines in ’08.”

The Year End Market Report

Posted in General, National Real Estate | Comments Off on Manhattan declines in ’08?

North Jersey December Residential Sales

Preliminary December sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.

The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.


(click to enlarge)

The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.


(click to enlarge)

The third graph displays only December sales, 2001 to 2007 YOY.


(click to enlarge)

The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.


(click to enlarge)

The last graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a monthly basis.


(click to enlarge)

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 277 Comments

Lowball! December 2007

Welcome to another edition of Lowball!

Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.

To keep the list length reasonable, we’re going to use 20% as the minimum percentage off OLP to be considered a Lowball!

Caveat Emptor!

Bergen County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 241277   Wyckoff Twp.  $1,200,000    $840,000    $772,000    35.7%   $428,000  
 240289   East Rutherford Boro  $630,000    $459,000    $435,000    31.0%   $195,000  
 237865   Franklin Lakes Boro  $2,950,000    $2,950,000    $2,112,500    28.4%   $837,500  
 240653   Fair Lawn Boro  $524,900    $424,000    $385,000    26.7%   $139,900  
 235346   Lyndhurst Twp.  $609,900    $489,000    $450,000    26.2%   $159,900  
 242097   Garfield City  $399,000    $349,000    $295,000    26.1%   $104,000  
 241453   Wyckoff Twp.  $1,250,000    $1,025,000    $965,000    22.8%   $285,000  
 230922   Ramsey Boro  $849,925    $669,925    $659,000    22.5%   $190,925  
 243769   Franklin Lakes Boro  $2,900,000    $2,900,000    $2,275,000    21.6%   $625,000  

Essex County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 240147   Newark City  $159,900    $84,900    $83,000    48.1%   $76,900  
 240172   Newark City  $141,900    $84,900    $75,000    47.1%   $66,900  
 241360   East Orange City  $190,000    $131,500    $115,000    39.5%   $75,000  
 241534   Livingston Twp.  $750,000    $500,000    $500,000    33.3%   $250,000  
 240451   Belleville Twp.  $194,900    $172,500    $136,000    30.2%   $58,900  
 243097   Millburn Twp.  $1,050,000    $1,050,000    $740,000    29.5%   $310,000  
 241921   North Caldwell Boro  $570,000    $499,900    $405,000    28.9%   $165,000  
 241309   Newark City  $259,900    $209,900    $190,000    26.9%   $69,900  
 237819   Bloomfield Twp.  $339,900    $289,900    $252,000    25.9%   $87,900  
 237719   Livingston Twp.  $799,000    $639,000    $595,000    25.5%   $204,000  
 243467   South Orange Village Twp.  $1,259,000    $998,900    $950,000    24.5%   $309,000  
 245075   Belleville Twp.  $378,170    $378,170    $288,170    23.8%   $90,000  
 244199   Newark City  $149,900    $124,900    $117,000    21.9%   $32,900  
 242822   Millburn Twp.  $729,000    $609,000    $570,000    21.8%   $159,000  
 239670   West Orange Twp.  $459,000    $378,876    $360,000    21.6%   $99,000  
 239608   Belleville Twp.  $455,000    $369,000    $358,000    21.3%   $97,000  
 241118   Fairfield Twp.  $539,000    $475,000    $425,000    21.2%   $114,000  
 244247   West Orange Twp.  $379,000    $359,000    $300,000    20.8%   $79,000  

Morris County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 232870   Chatham Twp.  $1,995,000    $1,495,000    $916,000    54.1%   $1,079,000  
 241989   Harding Twp.  $2,195,000    $1,600,000    $1,250,000    43.1%   $945,000  
 237165   Butler Boro  $399,900    $319,900    $270,000    32.5%   $129,900  
 240684   Montville Twp.  $1,225,000    $999,900    $860,000    29.8%   $365,000  
 244038   Morris Twp.  $939,000    $750,000    $660,000    29.7%   $279,000  
 241269   Riverdale Boro  $355,000    $290,000    $255,000    28.2%   $100,000  
 242074   Lincoln Park Boro  $349,900    $259,900    $255,000    27.1%   $94,900  
 242169   Denville Twp.  $310,000    $284,900    $230,000    25.8%   $80,000  
 238321   Mendham Twp.  $1,199,000    $949,000    $900,000    24.9%   $299,000  
 232932   Randolph Twp.  $550,000    $435,000    $415,000    24.5%   $135,000  
 239620   Denville Twp.  $429,999    $334,900    $325,000    24.4%   $104,999  
 242631   Chester Boro  $525,000    $450,000    $400,000    23.8%   $125,000  
 236764   Dover Town  $359,900    $299,900    $275,000    23.6%   $84,900  
 241150   Netcong Boro  $299,900    $225,000    $230,000    23.3%   $69,900  
 242580   Lincoln Park Boro  $405,000    $329,900    $315,000    22.2%   $90,000  
 240309   Parsippany-Troy Hills Twp.  $399,900    $337,500    $315,000    21.2%   $84,900  
 239036   Mount Olive Twp.  $459,000    $390,000    $365,000    20.5%   $94,000  
 241513   Wharton Boro  $249,900    $215,000    $198,940    20.4%   $50,960  

Passaic County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 236418   Wayne Twp.  $169,900    $79,900    $55,000    67.6%   $114,900  
 241630   Wayne Twp.  $69,900    $69,900    $45,160    35.4%   $24,740  
 241505   Haledon Boro  $529,900    $449,900    $383,000    27.7%   $146,900  
 241396   Pompton Lakes Boro  $419,900    $345,000    $305,000    27.4%   $114,900  
 241642   Passaic City  $289,000    $229,900    $215,000    25.6%   $74,000  
 240484   West Milford Twp.  $135,000    $135,000    $103,000    23.7%   $32,000  
 239170   Wayne Twp.  $1,389,000    $1,199,900    $1,085,000    21.9%   $304,000  
 243664   Wayne Twp.  $924,900    $799,999    $725,000    21.6%   $199,900  
 243473   Hawthorne Boro  $489,000    $429,900    $385,000    21.3%   $104,000  
 242706   Clifton City  $389,900    $359,000    $310,000    20.5%   $79,900  
 239972   Paterson City  $439,900    $380,000    $350,000    20.4%   $89,900  

Somerset County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2451946   Watchung Boro  $975,000    $775,000    $620,000    36.4%   $355,000  
 2392687   Peapack Gladstone Boro  $499,000    $399,000    $340,000    31.9%   $159,000  
 2416743   Hillsborough Twp.  $374,900    $299,900    $277,500    26.0%   $97,400  
 2433101   North Plainfield Boro  $315,000    $279,000    $235,000    25.4%   $80,000  
 2446635   Bound Brook Boro  $310,000    $274,900    $235,000    24.2%   $75,000  
 2403792   Bridgewater Twp.  $560,000    $455,000    $427,000    23.8%   $133,000  
 2396187   Watchung Boro  $1,499,000    $1,499,000    $1,155,000    22.9%   $344,000  
 2418420   Bound Brook Boro  $339,900    $299,900    $265,000    22.0%   $74,900  

Sussex County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2236725   Fredon Twp.  $1,100,000    $890,000    $675,000    38.6%   $425,000  
 2425734   Newton Town  $334,900    $219,900    $219,000    34.6%   $115,900  
 2418768   Hopatcong Boro  $384,900    $269,900    $265,000    31.2%   $119,900  
 2419901   Stillwater Twp.  $299,999    $229,000    $219,900    26.7%   $80,099  
 2306895   Andover Boro  $319,000    $299,000    $236,000    26.0%   $83,000  
 2323293   Hardyston Twp.  $679,900    $549,000    $508,000    25.3%   $171,900  
 2421170   Byram Twp.  $354,900    $294,900    $265,920    25.1%   $88,980  
 2423114   Byram Twp.  $319,000    $263,000    $243,000    23.8%   $76,000  
 2395268   Hopatcong Boro  $399,997    $329,000    $305,000    23.7%   $94,997  
 2408464   Vernon Twp.  $265,000    $229,900    $205,000    22.6%   $60,000  
 2370721   Hampton Twp.  $319,900    $280,000    $250,000    21.9%   $69,900  
 2415402   Hampton Twp.  $274,900    $240,000    $215,000    21.8%   $59,900  
 2409837   Frankford Twp.  $239,000    $197,000    $187,500    21.5%   $51,500  
 2411234   Vernon Twp.  $275,000    $229,000    $217,000    21.1%   $58,000  
 2451599   Lafayette Twp.  $283,000    $274,000    $225,000    20.5%   $58,000  

Hunterdon County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2367977   Hampton Boro  $325,000    $245,000    $240,000    26.2%   $85,000  
 2399454   Clinton Twp.  $550,000    $479,900    $409,000    25.6%   $141,000  
 2410043   Clinton Twp.  $389,900    $304,900    $292,000    25.1%   $97,900  
 2388301   Tewksbury Twp.  $2,095,000    $1,699,950    $1,611,600    23.1%   $483,400  
 2392418   Readington Twp.  $924,000    $750,000    $715,000    22.6%   $209,000  
 2443444   High Bridge Boro  $242,000    $229,900    $190,000    21.5%   $52,000  
 2428687   East Amwell Twp.  $347,500    $309,900    $275,000    20.9%   $72,500  
 2400049   Readington Twp.  $575,000    $525,000    $460,000    20.0%   $115,000  

Warren County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2414608   Phillipsburg Town  $116,900    $69,900    $33,000    71.8%   $83,900  
 2368439   Washington Twp.  $301,900    $214,900    $195,000    35.4%   $106,900  
 2430255   Belvidere Twp.  $94,900    $79,900    $65,000    31.5%   $29,900  
 2446890   Oxford Twp.  $26,000    $22,000    $19,000    26.9%   $7,000  
 2380755   Frelinghuysen Twp.  $599,000    $479,000    $447,500    25.3%   $151,500  
 2424875   Washington Twp.  $249,000    $199,999    $192,000    22.9%   $57,000  
 2431122   Blairstown Twp.  $324,900    $289,900    $255,000    21.5%   $69,900  
 2365615   Franklin Twp.  $225,000    $225,000    $180,000    20.0%   $45,000  

Union County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2436996   Elizabeth City  $499,999    $350,000    $300,000    40.0%   $199,999  
 2452459   Springfield Twp.  $499,999    $349,999    $321,000    35.8%   $178,999  
 2419493   Union Twp.  $468,850    $369,850    $340,000    27.5%   $128,850  
 2409663   Plainfield City  $232,000    $169,000    $169,000    27.2%   $63,000  
 2434622   New Providence Boro  $579,000    $500,000    $425,000    26.6%   $154,000  
 2242383   Roselle Boro  $324,900    $249,900    $240,000    26.1%   $84,900  
 2318447   Elizabeth City  $344,900    $279,900    $260,000    24.6%   $84,900  
 2391449   Elizabeth City  $440,000    $369,000    $338,000    23.2%   $102,000  
 2412073   Cranford Twp.  $485,000    $419,000    $375,000    22.7%   $110,000  
 2439139   Elizabeth City  $400,000    $400,000    $310,000    22.5%   $90,000  
 2426297   Berkeley Heights Twp.  $665,000    $549,000    $525,000    21.1%   $140,000  
 2250306   Elizabeth City  $415,000    $379,900    $330,000    20.5%   $85,000  
 2444710   Rahway City  $274,900    $249,900    $220,000    20.0%   $54,900  
Posted in Lowball, New Jersey Real Estate | 30 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

Now Open, Part II!

Prior weekend thread closed due to comment overflow.

Posted in General | 228 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

Weekend Video Interlude

Ka-Ching by Shania Twain from the Up! album. I can’t help of think of Pink Floyd’s Money during the intro.

Posted in General | 289 Comments

Transit-oriented incentives

From the Record:

Economic incentive legislation passes hurdle

A proposed new program designed to draw major corporate investment and job creation to New Jersey’s urban areas got legislative committee backing in Trenton on Thursday.

The bill would enable a company that invests $75 million on new construction, renovations or equipment in an urban transportation hub to recoup most or all of the money through tax credits.

The legislation comes amid growing concern that New Jersey’s business environment is expensive and difficult to navigate, and prompts companies to expand in lower cost states.

The credits would be available to projects located within half a mile of a rail station in an area whose economic condition make it eligible for state urban aid. That applies to nine communities, including Newark, Paterson, Jersey City and Camden.

Companies that create 250 or more jobs that are new to the state would get tax breaks over 10 years equal to their entire investments. Investors that create fewer than 200 new jobs would get breaks worth 80 percent of the investment.

Top officials in Governor Corzine’s administration, which initiated the bill, said the program will substantially broaden New Jersey’s incentives to businesses. They said companies willing to invest $75 million would likely be committed to that area for a significant period of time and anticipate that such a sizable investment would create far more than 250 jobs.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 6 Comments

…and then there’s Manhattan

From the Wall Street Journal:

Manhattan Shrugs Off Housing Downturn
Associated Press
January 3, 2008 12:10 a.m.

NEW YORK — Amid a housing slump that’s plaguing the rest of the country, Manhattan’s residential real estate market finished the final quarter of 2007 with record average prices, according to two separate reports released Thursday.

Prudential Douglas Elliman said the average Manhattan apartment price, which includes cooperatives and condominiums, jumped 17.6% in the fourth quarter to a record $1,439,909 from the year-ago period, while Brown Harris Stevens reported a 34% increase to $1,430,514, another record.

The median also rose, but not as sharply. Prudential reported a 6.4% increase to $850,000, and Brown Harris Stevens said the median price gained 14% to $828,000. The median price is where half sell for more and half sell for less.

When the average price outpaces gains in median price, that typically indicates higher sales activity at the top end of the market, said Brown Harris Stevens Executive Vice President Jim Gricar.

Sales of apartments over $10 million more than tripled during the quarter, while closings at the ultra-luxury apartments The Plaza and 15 Central Park West averaged $6.95 million and made up 7% of all quarterly condo sales, Brown Harris Stevens said.

Many foreign buyers, capitalizing on a weaker dollar, are snapping up some of these high-end condos in the city, Mr. Gricar said.

“I had a friend in town from London last week who said the market here was like a big 50% off sale,” Mr. Gricar said.

Meanwhile, Prudential said price increases on two- and three-bedroom apartments helped to push up prices overall. Prices on two-bedrooms jumped 22.1 percent, while three-bedroom apartment prices surged 39.8%.

Prudential Chief executive Dottie Herman noted that as more families stay in the city, instead of moving to the suburbs, demand for larger apartments is growing.

However, being a small island with a growing population is Manhattan’s greatest advantage. Unlike other markets nationwide struggling with a glut of unsold homes, Manhattan inventory shrunk by 13.5% in the fourth quarter from the prior year, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman.

“Across the country, houses are being built and inventory increases,” Mr. Gricar said. “In New York, it’s the reverse story. There’s simply no inventory.”

Prudential’s report is based on 2,518 home sales, while Brown Harris Stevens’ report tracked 2,531 sales.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 192 Comments

Bubble Nation

From Seeking Alpha:

Pedaling Prosperity Propaganda: Rhetoric of Depression?

The propaganda that the subprime debacle is not enough to derail an otherwise healthy economy fades into the distance when we see all the kings’ men, the Treasury, the Office of the President and the Federal Reserve banding together. Somehow this simple “crisis of confidence” has manifested so much momentum that our largest investment banks have to offer loan-shark deals, to hard capital sovereign countries, just to stay in business. The economy is sound they all say, it’s only a flesh wound – keep buying.

The embarrassment is that the (government sponsored) American citizens’ mandate seems to be to consume, regardless of increasing debt levels or ability to pay. Businesses have grown to believe that expanding credit will always get them through tough times. Their new game plan is to offset all the bad credit by loading up the more creditworthy to carry the load; in much the same way Citi diluted its junk. I have personally received hundreds of dollars JUST to keep lines of credit open and/or float any credit balance at zero interest till the end of 2008. This is a sign of desperate times and a failed paradigm.

The U.S economy has been made into a voracious credit pyramid desperately needing bigger bubbles just to stay afloat. This is the consequence of the illusion we have been sold – perpetual prosperity. Propping up asset bubbles with more fiat money ultimately threatens not more just inflation but a rapid deflation when the music stops. The dollar retracing the past 40 years’ growth is mainly due to the realization that financial engineering was accepted as organic growth. It wasn’t and the jig is up. The extent of that failed paradigm finally resulted in issuing mortgages like after dinner mints and showed just how desperate we have become to simulate (no T) growth.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 1 Comment

Irreparable…

From the Wall Street Journal:

Bush to Revive Push for Housing Remedy
By JOHN D. MCKINNON
January 2, 2008; Page A2

WASHINGTON — With public sentiment on the economy still sagging, President Bush will make a new push for congressional action to shore up the troubled housing market, a top aide said.

In an impromptu briefing aboard Air Force One as Mr. Bush returned from his Texas ranch, top communications adviser Ed Gillespie told reporters that the president wants Congress to do more to “help make the market more stable.” The administration sees “an opportunity for bipartisan consensus” on a housing initiative, despite the feuding that erupted last year between the Republican White House and the Democratic House and Senate over issues including the Iraq war, health care, and spending for parks and museums.

Shoring up public sentiment on the economy — especially the battered housing sector — could be vital to staving off a recession as Mr. Bush enters his last year in office. Pollsters say many people who aren’t directly affected by rising defaults on subprime-mortgage loans are feeling the effects anyway, as they see the values of their homes drift downward. Even if Mr. Bush fails to get much more action out of lawmakers, White House pressure could help Republicans’ political fortunes by reinforcing negative public perceptions of inaction in the Democratic-led Congress.

The administration and the Federal Reserve have taken several steps to attempt to address credit-market problems caused by rising mortgage defaults, including an administration-brokered industry effort to help people avoid foreclosure.

A House leadership aide said Monday that Democrats already have been planning to address economic security in 2008, including Americans’ struggles with housing, credit-card and college debt. Congress also will debate measures to combat global warming, putting pressure on Mr. Bush to come up with more specifics of his own.

Posted in National Real Estate, Politics | 248 Comments

NJ facing $3b budget deficit.. No new taxes?

From the AP:

New Jersey enters 2008 facing major budget woes

With Gov. Jon S. Corzine finalizing plans to increase highway tolls to help solve the state’s chronic fiscal woes, New Jersey enters 2008 with the nation’s third largest budget deficit, according to a new analysis.

Corzine is weighing plans to boost Garden State Parkway and New Jersey Turnpike tolls to pay state debt. He plans to introduce his plan to the Legislature on Jan. 8.

But the state also faces a projected budget deficit of up to $3 billion for the fiscal year that starts July 1, a hole that comes with Democrats looking to increase state aid for schools by about $580 million.

A recent review by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities found 13 states, including several of the nation’s largest, face budget shortfalls next year. Only California and New York face larger gaps than New Jersey.

California faces a deficit that could be as large as $14 billion, while New York faces a projected $4.3 billion shortfall, the review found.

The center cited housing market troubles as a leading cause for state fiscal woes, cutting sales tax collections from the sales of homes, furniture, appliances and construction materials, but New Jersey has had annual budget deficits since 2001.

It has solved them by, among other moves, increasing income taxes, corporate taxes, cigarette taxes and sales taxes.

In 2006, the Garden State increased sales, corporate, cigarette and other taxes by $1.84 billion, easily the largest total tax increase among states that year, though it avoided tax increases in 2007 when Democrats who control the Legislature faced re-election. They kept their control in last November’s election.

Corzine hasn’t ruled out tax increases in 2008, but hasn’t indicated he will propose increasing any, either. He has noted state taxes are considered high, and The Tax Foundation recently determined New Jersey has the nation’s third-highest tax burden.

Rather, Corzine has asked his administration to present ideas to cut $3 billion from the state’s $33.5 billion budget.

Posted in Economics, Politics, Property Taxes | 11 Comments

NJ commuters cause PA foreclosures

From the Pocono Record:

Monroe smashes home foreclosure record with 1,253 filings in 2007

Monroe County’s record-high 2007 home foreclosure rate may not be a surprise to informed observers, but it still can shock the senses.

There were 1,253 foreclosure filings with the county Prothonotary’s Office, according to final figures released by Prothonotary George Warden. The previous all-time high, set in 2003, was 941.

The Prothonotary’s Office passed the 1,000 mark for the year by early November.

The figures represent the number of home-loan default cases filed with the county to try to force buyers out of their homes. This doesn’t include local foreclosure filings in federal district court.

Monroe County, which has a population of about 165,000, already had one of the highest home foreclosure rates in the state earlier this decade.

Many have linked the foreclosures to abusive sales practices that trapped buyers in bad deals. Allegations include inflating appraisals to value and sell homes for more than they are worth in the local market, falsification of sales documents, undisclosed second mortgages hidden from buyers and the primary lenders, and onerous loan terms such as balloon payments and prepayment penalities if buyers try to refinance to a lower interest rate.

Others contend that local foreclosures are caused by personal factors, from consumers living beyond their means to homes being lost in messy divorces. They also point to the financial and emotional costs of long-distance commuting to New York and New Jersey jobs as a contributor.

Posted in National Real Estate | 2 Comments

Predictions 2008!

OK you pompous prognosticators, dust off that crystal ball and lets hear ’em!

Ground Rules
Predictions provided should either be for June 30th, 2008 or December 31th, 2008, please specify.

Provide justification for your forecast, where applicable (unless you are just making it up, if so, state that).

You may provide any caveats and/or assumptions that your forecast is based on.

You need not provide a forecast for all categories below.

Where applicable, forecasts are judged against the surveys/reports listed.

Real Estate
National Existing Home Sales – NAR
Median Existing Home Price – NAR
Median Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Median Existing Home Price – OFHEO HPI

New Jersey Existing Home Sales – NAR/NJAR
Median Existing Home Price – NAR/NJAR
Median Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Median Existing Home Price – OFHEO HPI

National New Home Sales – NAHB
Median New Home Price – NAHB

Commodities
Oil
Gold

Equities
United States
International Developed Markets
Emerging Markets

Mortgage Financing
30-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
15-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
5/1-Year ARM – Freddie Mac PMMS

Macroeconomic
10y Treasury
Fed Funds Rate
National Unemployment Rate
New Jersey Unemployment Rate

Oddball
Anything else you’d like to make a prediction about.

Posted in General | 204 Comments

How Ameriquest bought NJ legislators

From the Wall Street Journal:

Lender Lobbying Blitz Abetted Mortgage Mess
Ameriquest Pressed For Changes in Laws;
A Battle in New Jersey
By GLENN R. SIMPSON
December 31, 2007

During the housing boom, the subprime industry succeeded at more than just writing mortgages. It also shot down efforts by some states to curtail risky lending to borrowers with spotty credit.

Ameriquest Mortgage Co., until recently one of the nation’s largest subprime lenders, was at the center of those battles. Working with a husband-and-wife team of Washington lobbyists, it handed out more than $20 million in political donations and played a big role in persuading legislators in New Jersey and Georgia to relax tough new laws. Those victories, in turn, helped blunt efforts by other states to crack down on reckless lending, critics of the industry contend.

Executives at Ameriquest, based in Orange, Calif., acknowledge that the company lobbied heavily against state lending restrictions, but say that other subprime lenders did so as well. In fact, a host of subprime lenders and banking trade groups, including Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Countrywide Financial Corp. and the Mortgage Bankers Association, spent heavily on lobbying and political giving.

Data from federal and state campaign-finance records, Internal Revenue Service filings, and the National Institute on Money in State Politics show that from 2002 through 2006, Ameriquest, its executives and their spouses and business associates donated at least $20.5 million to state and federal political groups. In comparison, over the same time period, Countrywide Financial, another large subprime lender, gave about $2 million in campaign gifts, and spent an additional $6.7 million lobbying in Washington, records indicate.

Much of Ameriquest’s efforts took place below the national radar, at the state level. State legislatures wanted to crack down on so-called predatory lending, which refers to the use of deceptive or unfair practices in the sale of high-interest loans, often to low-income borrowers who can’t afford them. In New Jersey, for example, lawmakers passed a strong predatory-lending law in 2003 that made it difficult for Ameriquest to continue doing business there.

Problems were also developing for the industry in New Jersey. The state Assembly there passed a similar law against predatory lending, the Home Ownership Security Act. It too contained a tangible-net-benefit rule, but it didn’t provide much guidance on how the standard would be applied. “The New Jersey law makes it impossible for anyone to be in compliance,” Mr. Bass, the Ameriquest lawyer, complained at an industry conference.

In October 2002, Ameriquest and Mr. Andrews’s lobbying firm contributed $4,500 to five New Jersey state senators, state campaign reports indicate. The American Financial Services Association, a subprime industry group that included Ameriquest, predicted the law would cause lenders to abandon the state. Nevertheless, in the spring of 2003, the bill passed the state Senate and was signed into law.

At that point, opponents of the new law got some help. Just as it had done in Georgia, Standard & Poor’s said it wouldn’t rate some securities containing loans from the state. In addition, federal banking regulators issued a series of regulatory orders banning states from applying state consumer-protection rules to federally chartered banks and thrifts, part of a turf battle between federal and state regulators. That put pressure on states to soften predatory-lending rules so federally chartered banks didn’t have an advantage over state-chartered ones.

The subprime industry set to work trying to roll back the New Jersey law. The National Home Equity Mortgage Association, one of the subprime groups run by Mr. Andrews, released a survey predicting that the law would reduce mortgages in New Jersey by $4 billion.

Ameriquest and Mr. Andrews’s lobbying firm began handing out campaign contributions. Among the recipients were John Adler and Gerald Cardinale, two state senators who had voted for the new law. In October 2003, Mr. Cardinale, a Republican, received a $2,200 donation from Ameriquest, according to state election records. In November 2003, Mr. Adler, a Democrat, received $1,200 from the lobbying firm, the records indicate. In early December, the two senators introduced a bill to make changes sought by the industry.

That December, Neil Cohen, a state assemblyman who had voted for the new law, received a $500 donation from the lobbying firm, state records show. The Assembly’s Financial Institutions Committee, which was headed by Mr. Cohen, offered its own legislation to soften the lending law. Mr. Cohen couldn’t be reached for comment.

In 2004, as debate over the predatory-lending law dragged on, Ameriquest and Mr. Andrews’s lobbying firm together donated an additional $3,200 to Mr. Cohen, $1,100 to Mr. Cardinale and $1,300 to Mr. Adler, according to state records. Ameriquest gave $10,000 to the Democratic Party in the Assembly, $10,000 to Democrats in the Senate, and $7,000 to Senate Republicans, the records indicate.

Mr. Andrews’s wife, Lisa, then head of government affairs at Ameriquest, was also focused on New Jersey. On the Web site of her Washington public-relations firm, she says that she “built a coalition of mortgage brokers, mortgage bankers, appraisers, title companies, and others involved in home mortgage lending to create a grass-roots lobbying campaign that produced 7,000 emails and faxes to state policymakers in a six-week time frame.”

In June 2004, New Jersey’s Assembly and Senate unanimously passed bills that rolled back parts of the earlier law, including the tangible-net-benefit rule. Mr. Bass, the Ameriquest lawyer, announced that the company would “be offering a full range of loans in New Jersey.” Thousands of New Jersey homeowners subsequently refinanced existing mortgages or took out new loans with Ameriquest before the subprime market tanked. Many of those loans are now in foreclosure.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending | 2 Comments

Bending the rules to move condos

From the Record:

Senior housing age limit lowered

The council recently lowered the eligible age for age-restricted communities in the borough because a senior complex wasn’t selling its units.

Now residents must be 55 — not 62 — to move into the Stone Ledge Senior Housing complex — the only such community in the borough.

Condominiums have been slow to move in Stone Ledge, despite the initial excitement when the first unit went on the market. Since then, only one-third of the 36 luxury units have sold. The developer has even offered a 20 percent discount for Emerson residents, said developer Paul Van Dyke of Prudential Galaxy Real Estate.

Two units have sold since the restriction was lowered this month, Van Dyke said. The law creating a special zone for age-restricted housing was crafted specifically for the complex.

Watkins said the poor housing market has made it difficult to sell units. Sales are conditioned on the buyers being able to sell their homes, and Watkins said several potential buyers backed out after their homes didn’t sell.

Borough officials who voted for the rule change do not think it will significantly affect Emerson seniors who choose to buy in the complex.

“The prices on the units themselves are driven by market forces; they’re not controlled by the developer,” said Councilman Christopher Heyer. “The real estate market has taken a hit, and there aren’t as many buyers as there were before.”

Similar developments have also run into difficulties. K. Hovnanian Homes recently sold the Concierge Club, a for-sale senior condominium building in Teaneck, to a company that is converting the units to rentals. The company said at the time that the changing real estate market left them unable to absorb the slow selling pace.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | Comments Off on Bending the rules to move condos