Prices UP in Mendham? Huh?

Matt Woolsey from Forbes is reporting on the performance of the Mendham real estate market (an affluent Northern NJ suburb for those not familiar) as part of the Forbes Luxury Housing Index. The index is based on zip code data provided by Altos Research.

Anyhow, the report says that Mendham prices have increased 9.8% year over year (I’m assuming mid-April). Transaction activity in that zip is so small, I’m not sure if the sample size makes for any kind of meaningful statistic. In all of March, Mendham Boro and Twp saw 5 closed sales, year to date we are looking at 24.

Anyhow, I pulled the stats from the MLS to see what all the hoopla was all about. I didn’t find it.

Mendham Boro Closed Sales Average Sales Price
March 2008 – $655,000 (4 sales)
March 2009 – $500,833 (3 sales)
Prices down, but with that small sample size the number is meaningless.

YTD 2008 – $686,111 (9 sales)
YTD 2009 – $1,000,625 (8 sales)

Whoa! That must be it. Look at that increase in sales price! Let’s take a look at Mendham Twp.

Mendham Twp Closed Sales Average Sales Price
March 2008 – $2,910,000 (3 sales)
March 2009 – $399,500 (2 sales)
Prices down, but with that small sample size the number is meaningless.

YTD 2008 – $1,186,714 (21 sales)
YTD 2009 – $902,750 (16 sales)
Prices down, sample size is a little better here. I might be a bit more confident about this number

Ok, so what is up with that big jump in prices in Mendham Boro? Well, turns out that in February a $3.7 million home sold (one of two sold that month), and that is really pulling up that average.

Even if we look at the March contract data, to get the most recent indicator of the market, things don’t really look like prices are on the way up either.

Mendham Boro Contract Sales Average Last List Price
March 2008 – $1,077,667 (3 contracts)
March 2009 – $351,333 (2 contracts)
Keep in mind we’re talking about list prices here, we don’t know sale prices until the home closes. Same comment, sample size is tiny, the price change is noise.

Mendham Twp Contract Sales Average Last List Price
March 2008 – $2,614,667 (3 contracts)
March 2009 – $1,247,475 (2 contracts)
Same comment applies here.

I’m not sure what kind of magic data Altos has, or even how they could possibly get “real time” real estate data, but I’m not buying it. Even if they are basing their information on the current month contracts, which would be a very risky move, the sample sizes are so small in these towns that these median/average price changes are just statistical noise, up or down. This is one of the reasons you rarely see me talking about prices or sales volume changes on a town by town basis. Before you poo-poo me for ignoring the green shoots, this same report has Rumson home price *down* 30% in the same period.

From Forbes:

New Jersey Suburb’s Prices Holding Up

Mendham, N.J., is a small township of 5,000 residents 40 miles from New York City. With tree-lined streets and large, traditional houses on quiet, wooded acres owned by affluent residents–the median income is $145,000–it’s every bit the picture of an idyllic small-town suburb.

It’s got good schools and just-close-enough proximity to a big city to make it desirable, just like dozens of similar communities that fill the Tri-State, northern Chicago or Bay Area suburbs.

However, as the nation’s real estate market declines, Mendham has been one of the best performers in the Forbes Luxury Housing Index, which ranks the 500 most expensive ZIP codes in the country, using real estate statistics provided by Altos Research, a Mountain View, Calif.-based real estate derivates research firm. What’s stirring in Mendham? Why are prices up 9.8% from this time last year?

The whole of 2008 was a very slow year. While early 2009 has been an improvement so far, it’s still well behind sales rates of 2006 and 2007.

Brokers say that the depressed market has area homeowners pulling their homes entirely rather than trying to find sellers. Last year at this time there were 76 homes listed for sale while this year there are 105.

That’s a higher inventory, but in a wealthy marketplace where the median income is $145,000 and distressed homes are virtually nonexistent (Mendham has only three foreclosures, according to RealtyTrac), it’s also a sign of sellers’ increased confidence in finding a buyer.

“In 30 years, I’ve never had as bad a year real estate wise as I did last year,” says Betty Kiser, a broker at Coldwell Banker. “2007 was a really good year, but in 2008 it fell apart.”

Sadly, it’s not yet time to ring the recovery bell. Prices are still off from 2006 and 2007, by between 15% and 20% according to local brokerages, and still sliding a bit. According to our index, the median price has fallen to $1.26 million from $1.275 million in the last week. This calculation is a rolling average of the previous 90 days.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, North Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

284 Responses to Prices UP in Mendham? Huh?

  1. grim says:

    Especially given the most recent Metropolitan Area Employment released by the BLS:

    METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT: MARCH 2009

    Metropolitan Unemployment Rate

    New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island MSA
    March 2008 4.7% Unemployment
    March 2009 8.1% Unemployment

    New York City
    March 2008 4.6% Unemployment
    March 2009 8.2% Unemployment

    There is no way that prices are increasing at all in an environment where unemployment has almost DOUBLED over the past year.

  2. chicagofinance says:

    The end is nigh……leniency on the unlawful is de rigueur…

    WSJ
    APRIL 30, 2009
    Shorter Sentences Sought for Crack

    Administration Tells Congress It Favors Ending Disparity With Powder Cocaine

  3. still_looking says:

    chifi 2, ugh…

    I kinda like chest hair…on…guys. Chest hair on chicks? UGH.

    I had the sound off (everyone is sleeping…)so if there was any hair-raising narrative, I missed out.

    Mmmmm chest hair…. must.go.find.chest hair.now…

    sl

  4. Qwerty says:

    RE: Mendham prices

    They (the media, realtors) grasp at anything, and everything, to reinforce their real estate delusions.

    It’s a Conspiracy of Stupid.

  5. Sastry says:

    Barbara #317 Previous thread

    “14k over my current mortgage in fees and escrow”

    Sorry to be nitpicking, but your post doesn’t give the full picture. How much is for escrow (which is your money anyway)? How much is the monthly mortgage coming down? Are you doing any cash extraction? May be if you shop around, you will get a better deal.

    S

  6. Shore Guy says:

    WASHINGTON — The Obama administration Wednesday night planned to send Chrysler into bankruptcy, replace chief executive Robert Nardelli and pump billions of dollars more into the effort, all in hopes the company can emerge from court proceedings as a reenergized competitor in the global economy.

    Government officials clung to 11th-hour hopes Wednesday night that bankruptcy could be averted, but talks broke down with Chrysler’s creditors. A bankruptcy filing could happen as soon as Thursday.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fiw-chrysler31-2009apr31,0,1261303.story

  7. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    Just listed in A.C. for $200M: 2,000 rooms, ocean view

    New Jersey regulators on Wednesday authorized what could be an 80 percent-off sale for one of Atlantic City’s largest casinos, permitting the Tropicana Casino and Resort to be sold in a bankruptcy court auction.

    Retired state Supreme Court Justice Gary Stein, who has been overseeing the casino as conservator, said there is no guarantee it will sell for more than $200 million.

    “I can’t be confident, because this is the most unusual economy the casino industry has ever seen,” he said. Asked what sort of bargain the Tropicana would be at such a steep discount, Stein would only say, “It’s a very propitious time to buy.”

    The state Casino Control Commission voted Wednesday to permit Stein to file for bankruptcy, which he did soon after.

  8. crossroads says:

    Mendham prices

    I was told the same thing by a Manasquan realtor a couple of months back. they were boasting that it had been the only town to increase in monmouth county the whole it can’t happen hear attitude

  9. SG says:

    N.J. Transportation commissioner says road projects to last several months

    The department is also overseeing another $1 billion in federal stimulus funding being spent on New Jersey infrastructure projects, he said.

    Among those infrastructure projects is the new mass transit tunnel between North Jersey and Manhattan. Dilts called the tunnel “the most important project of this generation.”

    The tunnel construction will create 6,000 jobs annually through 2017 and 44,000 permanent jobs, he said. It will also speed up express service and in-state transit, he said.

    “The tunnel is absolutely a cornerstone of our transportation system moving forward,” he said.

    Continuing the Passaic-Bergen line project and advancing plans to expand the Hudson-Bergen light rail system are among NJ Transit’s capital plans, said Richard Sarles, the agency’s executive director.

  10. SG says:

    Bill would hurt, not help, affordable housing’s cause

    The thrust of the editorial is that bill S-2577, currently awaiting Gov. Jon S. Corzine’s signature or veto, will further the laudable objective of providing affordable housing in New Jersey. Sadly, the bill’s language has precisely the opposite effect and provides a loophole that could permit developers to avoid affordable housing obligations altogether.

    This legislation does not reflect the interests of our residents, or any other community in this state. It provides a windfall to developers, not stimulus to the economy. It diminishes the public’s confidence in the integrity and dependability of planning and zoning decisions made by local communities. Finally, the legislation is a step in the wrong direction for integrating affordable housing into our housing fabric. For these reasons, I join fellow New Jersey mayors and urge the governor to veto this legislation.

    FRANCIS M. WOMACK III
    Mayor
    North Brunswick

  11. sas says:

    aye..good catch grim!

    SAS

  12. sas says:

    “Flying Pigs, Tamiflu and Factory Farms”
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13408

  13. sas says:

    lower taxes? not in your lifetime.
    get back to work you sap!

    “More Scary Numbers from NJ Pension Reports”
    http://blog.nj.com/njv_johnbury/2009/04/more_numbers_from_nj_pension_r.html

  14. sas says:

    ughh.. time to make the donuts.

    SAS

  15. reinvestor101 says:

    Our party does not need that heifer and if she does not shut the hell up, her father can get out also. Hell, he was suspect anyway, which was why our embrace of his candidacy was tepid before he did the right thing and put Sarah on the damn ticket. We only lost because of ACORN helping “That One” steal the damn election. That won’t happen again.

    You just don’t understand. Ideological purity is a must for those of us who are rock ribbed patriots. Make no mistake, we aren’t just going to go quietly into to night and let people like that heifer, Meghan McCain represent our party.

    yikes says:
    April 29, 2009 at 7:48 pm

    reinvestor101 says:
    April 29, 2009 at 8:02 am
    Further, if Mac doesn’t tell that loud mouthed daughter of his to shut the hell up, he can go as well. She has gotten on my last damn nerves and is making me come to the belief that Mac is unpure.

    fool. meghan mccain is one of the few good things the republican party has going on right now (the others: fiscal ideas; increased shut-the-border efforts). you should listen to her – she’s much brighter than you are.

    easy on the eyes, too.

  16. sas says:

    Novavax up. wow, what a surprize.
    remember my post over the weekend?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NVAX

    SAS

  17. sas says:

    how can this be financed?
    easy, buy our treasuries, or a bomb will ba dropped on you.

    yes, a good way start wars and feed real terrorism.

    to me al quida is not real terrorism, thats a CIA asset front.
    Taliban isn’t terrorism, they run the best opium trade for wall st laundering.

    “CNNMoney.com’s bailout tracker”
    http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttracker/index.html

    SAS

  18. John says:

    Building collaspe downtown, as if I have enuf to deal with, party on rally.

  19. sas says:

    “how can this be financed?
    easy, buy our treasuries, or a bomb will ba dropped on you.”

    if you haven’t gotten it by now, let me help: this is essentially a global taxation by the united states on the rest of the country.

    god bless the USA & LBJ :)
    SAS

  20. sas says:

    opps I mean:

    “this is essentially a global taxation by the united states on the rest of the WORLD.

    SAS

  21. sas says:

    John,

    “Building collaspe”

    wait.. you mean the NY Rangers hockey?

    ha ha:)
    SAS

  22. sas says:

    “Towering Vacancies: Office Market Hits the Skids
    -rents sliding 14.6% in the first quarter”
    http://tinyurl.com/cutd4f

  23. Clotpoll says:

    sas (23)-

    I’m waiting for pret to weigh in on this. :)

    That guy’s probably herding yak in Mongolia right now.

  24. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Re 23,

    Yeah the rents are sliding 14%, IF THEY CAN EVEN FIND A TENANT!

  25. Clotpoll says:

    The French have it all on us:

    -Sloth as a virtue.
    -Food, wine.
    -Decent football.
    -First Lady who does s@x videos and naked pics.

    Who am I kidding? Hell, I’ve even got family there. France is the ultimate bug-out destination.

  26. BC Bob says:

    sas [23],

    Rents down approx 15% in the 1st quarter in NY? Must be a mistake.

    Clot [24],

    The same turnip truck that dropped him off in NY, has carried him out.

  27. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Looking for more about [term]?
    Wednesday, April 29, 2009
    Is Joe Biden Associated With A Fund Of Funds Feeder Scam?

    I see lots of possibilities: all of them reflect very poorly on the Bidens.

    •They were and remain controllers of a fund of funds which they allege misrepresented its returns and yet which they kept operational.
    •They were and remain controllers of a fund of funds which houses an alleged fraud in its offices (Ponta Negra).
    •They were and remain controllers of a fund of funds which employed a marketing organisation (Onyx) which was associated with distributing alleged frauds (Ponta Negra and Stanford).
    •They were and remain controllers of a fund that claimed to have 28 staff many of whom are difficult to trace and where the revenue to fund those staff did not obviously exist. This suggests that either the staff were not paid, did not exist or (more sinisterly) they were paid by stealing from the small amount of funds under management. You could only steal the client money if the asset custody safeguards were not robust. There is an audit statement on the SEC files qualified as to the robustness of these protections – however there is no evidence that the lack of robustness was exploited.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/is-joe-biden-associated-with-hedge-fund.html

  28. BC Bob says:

    “Building collaspe”

    “wait.. you mean the NY Rangers hockey?”

    sas,

    And on the other side of the river, a towering inferno.

  29. John says:

    Sumner Redstone Vows To Never Die, Slams Rupert Murdoch, Jay Leno
    By Hilary Lewis
    April 30, 2009: 01:22 AM ET

    Sumner Redstone lashed out at his big media rivals—and Jay Leno—today while comparing himself to Brad Pitt’s character in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

    “I’m The Curious Case of Mr. Redstone,” he said in an interview with Larry King at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference on Wednesday. The 85-year-old mogul then added, “I have no intention of ever retiring, or of dying.”

    He also insisted he wouldn’t relinquish control of CBS or Viacom, refusing to make the same mistake he believes Ted Turner made by selling his company to Time Warner. Redstone also vowed he wouldn’t lose control of either company the way he claims former Disney head Michael Eisner did before he was forced out.

  30. John says:

    The rangers win the cup every 50 years or so, they are booking their 2046 parade right now.

  31. Stu says:

    The Ranger’s losing was expected. Now the Devil’s last 2-minute breakdown was quite the surprise.

  32. Frank says:

    Where’s the CRE recession??

    April 29 (Bloomberg) — Boston Properties Inc., the biggest U.S. office real estate investment trust, said first-quarter earnings excluding items rose and forecast funds from operations of $4.65 a share to $4.80 a share for the year.
    FFO increased to $134.8 million, or $1.11 a share, from
    $130.7 million, or $1.08, a year earlier, the Boston-based company said today in a statement.

  33. Frank says:

    Where’s the Gold Coast recession??

    7 UC in Hoboken this week. Look at the prices. Woowwww!!!!

    http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=5037f15a-f70f-4f32-8c9f-420224d6f16d&Report=Yes

  34. Frank says:

    In Hoboken, 5 1 bedrooms sold for $366,000 average price. That’s like 6x income in today’s job market. Wow, RE boom continues.

    http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=99d71edd-6cde-4218-aeb6-067c00a89bab&Report=Yes

  35. Frank says:

    Clotpoll,
    I am willing to buy your SRS for $18/share today.

  36. All Hype says:

    I put a little skin in the markets this morning. I have come to the realization that all the free money from the goobermint is not going into loans but right into the stock market. This rally could last a long time. I am starting to beleive that the reflation of the markets is the only thing going right for Uncle Ben and Timmay. But what do I know, I am just a guy who sits at a desk at a pharma company.

    I will be honest and tell you how much I have gained/lost.

  37. BC Bob says:

    “In Hoboken, 5 1 bedrooms sold for $366,000 average price.”

    366K in Hoboken? The gold coast? Sounds like the past few years buyers are taking it up the shoot.

  38. PGC says:

    From the FT

    Timing of Goldman bond sale raises questions

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac2ad492-3516-11de-940a-00144feabdc0.html

    Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds?
    Captain Renault: I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
    [a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
    Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
    Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much.
    [aloud]
    Captain Renault: Everybody out at once!

  39. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “In Hoboken, 5 1 bedrooms sold for $366,000 average price. That’s like 6x income in today’s job market”

    Yeah they were all listed at $450K. Look moron I don’t mind you popping off about something you have some clue about but please quit talking about Hoboken real estate. Your ignorance is evident everytime you post.

  40. Stu says:

    All Hype (37):

    I wish you luck. I think you may be a little late to the unsustainable future tax liability party.

  41. BC Bob says:

    AH [37],

    Trillions, that is not going to John Q, has to find a home somewhere. If anybody thinks that the stock market can’t make a run at its 200 dma, they’re kidding themselves. It will get interesting if/when we approach that #. The traders will make $. The buy/sell and hold will be squirming.

  42. All Hype says:

    Stu says:
    April 30, 2009 at 8:27 am
    All Hype (37):

    I wish you luck. I think you may be a little late to the unsustainable future tax liability party.
    ________________________________________________

    You may be right, I am going to have my finger on the mouse to sell if the markets go south quickly. Trust me, this is not a lot of money I am playing with here. Just trying to do something to pass the time away with this terrible economy.

  43. tbw says:

    The amount of strollers in Hoboken amazes me. Especially the Bugaboo strollers. My wife and I have ONE stroller. A Graco.

  44. John says:

    My junk is drying up, but if you think CIT can stay in business another 21 months, this one coould be a winner, B rated with a 40% yield.

    CIT GROUP INC INTERNOTES BOOK 6.60000% 02/15/2011 FR
    12557WTB7
    Price (Ask) 60.000
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 40.110%

  45. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. weekly jobless claims down 14,000 to 631,000

    U.S. jobless claims at lowest level since April 11 (Wasn’t this last week?)

    U.S. continuing claims up 133,000 to 6.27 mln (this is the news)

  46. John says:

    A bull can run pretty fast. But if we have another strong week or two more I am selling a wee bit myself. Not going to cash, just out of margin.

  47. BC Bob says:

    One step forward, two steps back. Americans saved the tax break?

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Consumer spending and incomes took a step back in March after two steps forward in January, a sign that the improvement in the consumer sector in the first quarter was fragile and tentative. Real consumer spending fell 0.2% in March after gaining 0.9% in January and 0.1% in February, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Meanwhile, nominal incomes fell 0.3% in March as wages and salaries slid 0.5%. Americans pocketed the modest tax break they got in March as part of the economic stimulus package, boosting their savings rate to 4.2% of after-tax income in March from 4% in February

  48. tbw says:

    I paid $350,000 for my house in 2006. The house next door is now a short sale and they want well under $350,000 for it. That house is larger than mine, nicer than mine, and on a bigger lot than mine. Oh well…

  49. BC Bob says:

    J [47],

    My bells and whistles will sound off 10-12% higher.

  50. Stu says:

    tbw (strollers):

    We had a Bugaboo. Purchased it new off of Ebay for $700. Sold it a few months ago after three years of use on Craigslist for $500. We got to drive (push) the Lexus of strollers for about the same price that most pay for their low budget strollers. Our primary reason for the Bugaboo was for it’s ability to roll on the beach (which is invaluable to us LBI lovers). For our booster seats for the cars, we got ’em 2 for $30. Graco all the way baby.

  51. grim says:

    I paid $350,000 for my house in 2006. The house next door is now a short sale and they want well under $350,000 for it. That house is larger than mine, nicer than mine, and on a bigger lot than mine. Oh well…

    C’est la vie, just imagine how you would feel if you had purchased it for $400k a year earlier.

  52. grim says:

    Admit it Stu, the only reason you rolled a ‘boo was because your neighbors would think you beat your kids if they saw you slumming them around in a Maclaren.

  53. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    April 30, 2009 at 8:32 am
    My junk is drying up, but if you think CIT can stay in business another 21 months, this one coould be a winner, B rated with a 40% yield.

    JJ: ya’ got junk in the trunk?

  54. Stu says:

    Grim (53):

    “…your neighbors would think you beat your kids if they saw you slumming around in a Maclaren.”

    Trust me, it was one the most difficult purchases I ever made in my life. :P

  55. grim says:

    Clot, gimme a read on repricing this morning, with the 10y yield through the roof I can’t imagine lenders wouldn’t be pushing rates higher. On the positive sides (green shoots!), we’ve finally got a yield curve that we can ski down.

  56. Stu says:

    tbw (49):

    You’re in pretty good shape. We had the steal of the decade in Montclair in 2004 and the most recent comps are eating us alive. We plan to dollar cost average down into RE when we purchase our next home some time next year (renting out both units of our multi).

  57. grim says:

    Stu,

    Saw a handful of nice deals hit the market this week. Now, one of them was a Burg, so we’ll see where that goes, but we’re definitely seeing pricing at better than 2004 levels in Montclair.

  58. bi says:

    thanks g*d. the recession is finally over. this morning a vetern fund manager/economist called chris something partially agreed with me on bloomberg radio. he said the recession was probabally over by the end of April.

  59. BC Bob says:

    “this morning a vetern fund manager/economist called chris something partially agreed with me on bloomberg radio”

    Hilarious. You must be doing cartwheels on the NJ TPK.

  60. 3b says:

    #59 Was that before or after this fact?

    U.S. continuing claims up 133,000 to 6.27 mln.

    It is amazing to me that there are people out there yourself included who can pick the exact day that the recession ended.

    And if the recession is over at COB today, April 30,2009 now what happens?

  61. John says:

    CHRYSLER TO PROCEED WITH CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY AFTER DEBTHOLDER

  62. BC Bob says:

    “It is amazing to me that there are people out there yourself included who can pick the exact day that the recession ended.”

    3b,

    Hey, we are shovel ready.

  63. John says:

    chicagofinance says:

    Page c10 of today’s WSJ finally said what I have been screaming since last October, Triple C ain’t Triple X you need junk in your trunk, it ain’t all bad, Beyonce and J-low got plenty of junk in dat trunk, but you and I would plow that like a 14 year old farm boy on his first late night visit to the sheep, however like rockafeller when the shoeshine boys jump into the market it is time for the playas to get scared.

    April 30, 2009 at 8:57 am
    John says:
    April 30, 2009 at 8:32 am
    My junk is drying up, but if you think CIT can stay in business another 21 months, this one coould be a winner, B rated with a 40% yield.

    JJ: ya’ got junk in the trunk?

  64. 3b says:

    #63 BC Bob: We sure are!!

  65. grim says:

    Recession might be over, but that doesn’t mean home prices are going to start moving up again.

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Sfmd3anrXVI/AAAAAAAAFJ4/u7w_0tRFcgk/s1600-h/WeeklyClaimsApr30.jpg

    Looking at the last two recessions, continuing and weekly claims stayed elevated for about two years, near peak.

    When the late 80s bubble finally burst, real prices declined well into the mid 90s, even though the recession had ended.

    NJ prices will continue to fall throughout the year. I see nothing that pushes me to modify my original forecast of NJ prices falling 30% off peak when all is said and done.

    If you absolutely MUST to buy, I’d recommend waiting until after September to do so.

  66. bi says:

    one more indication that the recesion is over: S&P up over 10% in April, best in 10 years.

  67. John says:

    Chyrsler Pensioners and free medical for life barnicles are finally getting it good and hard. Maybe you should have put the motor mounts in the right way in my dodge dart you sobs and I would feel better about you.

  68. grim says:

    bi,

    Didn’t you tell us, a few months back, that there would be no recession. Goldilocks you said, a soft landing. Sounded like you were channeling Paulson.

    Why should someone who completely missed the recession have any say in the recession being over? Hell, you didn’t even think it existed. Now you are telling us it is over?

    C’mon bi, get real.

  69. #68 – You might want to have a bit more tact John (yes, I know). Gloating like that might have a way of turning around and biting you in the a**.

  70. BC Bob says:

    JB [69],

    Broken record since the top. By the way, he/she stated, due to pant up demand, that home prices would be up 10% in 2008.

    Every pundit/expert that completely missed the bubble are cheering a bottom. A slew of Irving Fisher’s. Hopefully, they can continue the rant. Get everybody on the sidelines back in. The market is uncanny in sucking everybody in, before the next move down.

  71. skep-tic says:

    failure of financial journalists to grasp significance of basic financial data is rampant, unfortunately

  72. Clotpoll says:

    Frank (36)-

    Sorry. Not selling. Just buying at all points along this manufactured, weak-ass, low-volume, no-broad-participation, mother-of-all-dead-cat rallies.

    May starts tomorrow.

    Biden connection to Ponzi scheme news will break big in another 7-10 days. Wide-scale riots in Europe should start within the month.

    Go ahead, keep getting long.

  73. jcs says:

    Starbucks profit drops 77%. Same stores sales down 8%.

  74. skep-tic says:

    re: Chrysler

    (1) will be interesting to see how union reacts to controlling the enterprise. no one to blame but yourself if the operation fails.

    (2) glad to see the secured lenders stand up to the gov’t. we are supposed to be a nation of laws and gov’t seemed to be pressuring them to give up their contractual rights.

    (3) unclear to me what the advantage of having Fiat involved is if Chrysler is now going bankrupt anyway.

  75. grim says:

    Every pundit/expert that completely missed the bubble are cheering a bottom. A slew of Irving Fisher’s. Hopefully, they can continue the rant. Get everybody on the sidelines back in. The market is uncanny in sucking everybody in, before the next move down.

    No better example than the Realtors *still* having credibility in the press. They told us, unequivocally, that there was no real estate bubble, it could not be, prices would rise well into the future. We’ve entered a period of permanent prosperity!

  76. John says:

    I am getting to audi 5000 time. 8,400 is time to sell a little, 24 year old just told me made a killing this week in a new medical marijunna IPO!!!

  77. kettle1 says:

    Grim,

    I have family that lives in mendham and that stat is misleading at best. If you actually look at the families in the town a good portion of them are struggeling under financial strain just like most of the state and nation.

    In one particular part of the town, a fair % of the residents jumped on the HELOC, 2nd mortgage band wagon. there was an especially big jump in this activity when there was a sudden buzz in the neighborhood in 2006 when one of the neighbors sold their house for 900K. Suddenly everyone in the neighborhood came to the conclsuion that they were all millionaires and should spend like they were.

    At local social events (i.e parties , GTG, BBQ etc) it now sounds like a bad episode of desperate housewives as a lot of those people are depending on the “recession” being over soon and credit expansion/home values skyrocketing again.

    As is often the case the reality is very different from the facade.

    I am sure some of the people in the town are doing fine, but a fair number are just playing an image game.

  78. 3b says:

    #71 BC Bob: And I would argue even if we are at a bottom in some markets (and we are most certainly not as far as the real estate market in the NYC metro area), so what.

    We are at at bottom. Now what? how long will we be at the bottom? Will we be flat for years?

    I know I am a broken record, but once again, I will say, after all that has trasnpired, how can any repsonsible so called financial expert or anyone else start seriously talking about recovery,and renewal,and dusting ourselves off?

  79. PGC says:

    I’m still sticking with my start of year prediction of Recession to end in Q3/09.

    I think the next set of earnings statements will blow the bottom off the market. Anyone left standing in Q4/09 will be in a position to hold, if not grow.

    I would be interested if any one has any numbers on M&A activity. I wonder if it is ticking up after being dead in 2008.

  80. Victorian says:

    This makes me giddy to see this –

    “Fidelity’s Bolton Says Stocks Already in `Bull Market'”

    Draw the sheeple in. Bastards.

  81. bi says:

    71#, the market is sucking bears and bulls all the time. the biggest suckers are ultra shorts wearers. i mentioned here many times since last year. these are not good stuff for amatuer traders. unfortunately, the ring leaders on this board did not take my idea seriously.

    by the way, bob, you are the smartest guy here since you talk something only after you clear your winning positions to avoid conflict of interest.

  82. BC Bob says:

    “one more indication that the recesion is over: S&P up over 10% in April”

    bi,

    What is your point? Since when is the stock market/economy perfectly aligned.

    Back in late Nov the market was up approx 17% in 3 weeks. We heard your same rant at that time.

    You are simply monotonous and tiresome. At least 50.5 is entertaining.

    JB,

    New rules. Every time Bi chirps about the market, the donation button must be hit.

  83. Clotpoll says:

    Did I fail to mention that it’s getting harder and harder to get mortgages…and both refi and purchase money applications have fallen off a cliff? Given that, who gives a damn about 8 deals in Mendham?

    Or, that CMBS have already fallen off the same cliff? A few more retailer bankruptcies should help that along nicely. A new term should come into our vocabularies by September: constructive eviction (all the rage in AZ, CA, FL, NV). Let’s hope that TALF will work for CMBS better than Hope For Homeowners works for J6P.

    Or, that we should touch 10% U-3 while the weather is still warm? Hey, that means probably a 20-22% U-6: Grapes of Wrath stuff. Be sure to put some of those tasty green shoots into your dirt sandwiches, folks!

    Or, that the next beneficiary of TARP will have to be Bergabe’s FedCo? The festering garbage of Maiden Lane will have to be pulled off FedCo’s balance sheet, as it’s beginning to stink way more than the bulk of the balance sheet, which is simply dry, ossified trash.

    Go ahead and get long, Frank. Only before you do, please keep in mind that the queues of RE buyers are still not appearing at my door…and the Spring market was DOA in February.

    Best of all, 90% of my office’s listings are now some form of distress sale.

  84. grim says:

    I’m still sticking with my start of year prediction of Recession to end in Q3/09.

    ECRI said the same this morning, and I agree that it is plausible.

    However, the wildcard isn’t when it is over, it is what happens afterward.

    IMHO, I see no reason we should experience any kind of strong recovery in jobs, the economy, or the real estate market.

  85. BC Bob says:

    82,

    Well, if you were on my email list, you would know better.

  86. Clotpoll says:

    skep (75)-

    Inmates running the asylum.

    However, having Nardelli gone can only be a huge plus.

  87. bi says:

    86#, did you disclose your position in your email?

  88. skep-tic says:

    the house across the street from me is bank owned and is now going to be auctioned. it was bought in 2006 for around $750k. It is currently listed around $450k so you could buy it tomorrow and save the auctioneer the trouble this weekend. Minimum bid on the place will be $100k. I am pretty sure it will go for no more than $300k at auction. Whatever bank approved this loan should be out of business.

  89. BC Bob says:

    82,

    In addition to this, it was discussed at the Asbury Park GTG, attended by Bruce.

  90. bi says:

    S%P is just one indicator. you cannot draw conclusion based on short-term (3 weeks) data. we need 2 more months of monthly S&P data to confirm that.

    >Back in late Nov the market was up approx 17% in 3 weeks. We heard your same rant at that time.

  91. 3b says:

    #80 PGC: Earnings are going to continue to be ugly through out the rest of the year. IMO at some point the market will focus on that reality,and stop with this # s are down, but not as down as they could have been so we bid stocks up.

    Than we get that market bottom blow, and at the end of 2009, we start a long slow painful recovery in the markets ,with unemployment still rising until the middle of the second quarter of 2010. And than a long slow painfue recovery from there as well.

    Oh and real estate in the NYC metro area, is dead for years, regardless of seller denial/delusions.

  92. Clotpoll says:

    It shouldn’t take two more months before the margin calls to bi’s residence resume.

  93. Clotpoll says:

    Oh, I forgot. bi married his margin clerk. She can give him the good news at the breakfast table now.

  94. SG says:

    Another example from premier central NJ town – Bridgewater.

    MLS 2625689

    Remarks: Pre-forclosure/Short Sale, subject to seller’s mortgagee’s approval.

    House listed at $ 539,000

    Total Assessment: $ 659,400

    These houses were going for at least $700,000+ in 2005.

  95. Clotpoll says:

    3b (92)-

    There still has been no massive, grinding, despairing Black Friday market event. In a recession as massive as this one, is it not reasonable to expect one? I sure do.

    I can only remember curbs being in once…and it was pre-market…on a day that ended to the upside.

  96. skep-tic says:

    Clot– what is constructive eviction? sounds fun

  97. 3b says:

    #78 I am sure some of the people in the town are doing fine, but a fair number are just playing an image game.

    Which is the same in many towns. But in many wannabe towns; the process is much more painful. IMO they played the game even more than towns like Mendahm, Ridgewoods, and Saddle River.

  98. Clotpoll says:

    SG (95)-

    You’re pushing that a bit. The house has been a POS for years and is on 202/206. The town should burn it down and let the fire dept put it out for practice.

    Also now in attorney review.

  99. bi says:

    my hunch is S&P will reach 900 mark without resistence, then dow 9000 with little struggle and then S&P 1K mark. at that time, reality will kick in either way. again, just hunch.

  100. 3b says:

    #96 clot: I am much more concerned with the markets rising for no sound fundamental reasons, than with the decline. The longer the rally charade goes on, the harder and uglier the next leg down.

    Let’s get the next leg down over with.

    Stop the manipulation, and the delusions, flush away the toxic, and then we hit bottom, and than we can talk about how to recover.

    We cannot talk receovry until unemployment stops rising,and the stock market can only be a forward indicator for the economy,when the unemplyment rate stabalizes at whatever it’s peak number may be.

  101. Clotpoll says:

    skep (97)-

    Normally (in residential RE), constructive eviction is when a tenant leaves and/or withholds rent due to a condition caused by the landlord. Often, you’ll see tenants of slumlords do this when the slumlord has let the units deteriorate to the point of being unsafe to inhabit.

    On the commercial RE side, you now see retail tenants all over the US withholding rent and demanding re-worked leases. If the landlords don’t deliver, the tenant simply packs up and goes. However, retail landlords are actually allowing tenants to continue to operate (in many cases, rent-free), because strips and malls both: 1) lose traffic and 2) have a harder time finding new tenants when they have vacancies.

    As you can see, this is a lose-lose proposition…and it’s becoming more widespread daily.

  102. Clotpoll says:

    bi (100)-

    Reality will never kick in for you. Even if it is delivered via brass knuckles to your jaw.

  103. Clotpoll says:

    3b (101)-

    The country and TPTB have chosen manipulations and delusion. Overwhelmingly.

    So, here comes our Lost Decade. Only problem is, if you compare our situation to Japan’s when theirs began, they were in about 100x better shape than we are now.

    Our Lost Decade may be more like a Lost Biblical Generation.

    I think the best hope for our problems being short-lived lie in the hope that public outrage triggers armed insurgency and shortens the whole mess.

  104. kettle1 says:

    3b, clot

    my guess would be that our Black X-day event will be shortly after S&P approaches 1000 and falls through the floor.

  105. kettle1 says:

    So whats up with morristown?

    I drove through there this morning and noticed the new apartment/condo complexes going up by the train station and the square.

    Who do they thing is going to live those for the going prices? A better question, can the developers get people into them at a price that will cover development costs?

    Did morristown just build its new slum?

  106. John says:

    http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=MJNA&time=6mo

    from 1 cent to 69 cent, maryjane is flying high.

  107. John says:

    The black swan will be the lack of a black swan.

  108. BC Bob says:

    [105],

    Time to get back in the game, at that point. Funny, S&P futures 200 dma close to your #.

  109. grim says:

    So whats up with morristown?

    I drove through there this morning and noticed the new apartment/condo complexes going up by the train station and the square.

    That has been in the works for years. No way a developer isn’t going to move forward on an approved project that has secured financing.

  110. we says:

    Morristown

    The one with the big sign, 50% sold?

  111. Clotpoll says:

    grim (110)-

    That stuff was DOA years ago. Outfits like Wells Fargo now punish their originators by making them sit open houses there.

  112. Clotpoll says:

    Wells is very decent about it. Originators get a choice of soul-sucking, time-wasting purgatories:

    1. Gold Coast

    2. Morristown

  113. grim says:

    Re: motown

    I think they’ll do well. If they can merge Morristown/Twp, and improve the schools, that area will be hot.

  114. kettle1 says:

    even if they were able to fill all of the morristown untis, did they not consider that that part of town already grinds to a halt on a daily basis? I suppose they didnt bother to consider what would happen when you increase traffic density in an area that is already way over capacity.

    Clot,

    Is there an unexpected electrical fire or do they just swap them for tarp paper and turn them into public housing?

  115. kettle1 says:

    grim 114

    serious or sarcasm?

  116. sas says:

    “Oh, I forgot. bi married his margin clerk. She can give him the good news at the breakfast table now”

    pillow talk

    SAS

  117. grim says:

    No, I’m serious, however I’m not talking short-term.

    I still feel we’re in a longer-term demographic shift towards re-urbanism. My thoughts about suburbia being a failed experiment have been shared here on a number of occasions.

  118. sas says:

    ignore the 900lb guerrilla in the room.
    buy RE in NJ or be priced out forever.

    “Slaughtering New Jersey Pensions”
    http://blog.nj.com/njv_johnbury/2009/04/lying_with_numbers_on_the_nj_p.html

    SAS

  119. sas says:

    “re-urbanism”

    i will remember that if a REAL pandemic breaks out.

    cough.. cough…
    oh no.
    I’m.. I’m…. scared.

    SAS

  120. kettle1 says:

    Grim,

    I still feel we’re in a longer-term demographic shift towards re-urbanism. My thoughts about suburbia being a failed experiment have been shared here on a number of occasions.

    i agree with the general idea

    SAS

    What you do think about the Guatemalan government seeming to take the side of the citizens against texaco/chevron in the current pollution/dumping case?

  121. sas says:

    “What you do think about the Guatemalan government seeming to take the side of the citizens against texaco/chevron in the current pollution/dumping case?”

    its damn if you do, damn if you don’t.

    its good that they are against texaco/chevron, but, then they come in and take over and act like texaco/chevron.

    yeah, it a tough one.
    I really don’t have detailed data about the situation.

    SAS

  122. Secondary Market says:

    @118 word up!

  123. #118 – I’ll agree with the general concept of a re-urbanization of the US. I’ll actively support the same. However, this may be a long long process. Lots of interests will be fighting a rear guard action to prevent the same from happening.
    Care to offer any estimates on the time spans? 1 – 2 generations? more? less?

  124. Secondary Market says:

    I’m going to throw myself under the bus and admit we bought the Orbit Stroller, excuse me, the Orbit “Infant System”. It was between that the Bugaboo and w/ this being our first, my wife was consumed by the hysteria (propaganda) of more $$$ = more safety. I’ve learned to choose my battles and arguing w/ a 9 month prego women is not a battle I choose to engage.

  125. kettle1 says:

    bc

    saw that the other day. If successful that could open the flood gates to some serious turf battles. In europe i think that the towns have a better chance then the banks.

  126. John says:

    I can’t wait to have my grandkids back in the Bronx, boom boxes, spray painting, dealing drugs maybe a little gangbanging, it all cool as I am an OG who is down with OPP who can get enuff of that white angel dust.

    grim says:
    April 30, 2009 at 10:44 am
    No, I’m serious, however I’m not talking short-term.

    I still feel we’re in a longer-term demographic shift towards re-urbanism. My thoughts about suburbia being a failed experiment have been shared here on a number of occasions.

  127. kettle1 says:

    i must be cheap. the kettle family used a hand me down graco and a BOB purchased off craigs list for $75 that was in mint condition

  128. Of course, a re-urbanization could happen a bit sooner should Bill Ford get his way, namely; “Higher taxes to push the price of petrol up by more than 70 per cent“.
    Now he wants this to sell him some `lectric Fords. I’m not sure if he’s aware of the phrase “unintended consequences”.

    Sorry for the DB link, I don’t have a direct FT account.

  129. kettle1 says:

    clot,

    rapture is near, a politician tells the truth!

    DURBIN: And the banks — hard to believe in a time when we’re facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created — are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place.

  130. skep-tic says:

    #119

    “I still feel we’re in a longer-term demographic shift towards re-urbanism”

    I tend to agree with this, but I wonder about how far this can go. for example, if urban schools do not drastically improve, or private schools become more plentiful and a lot cheaper in cities, I think only a small subset of families with children will choose to live there over suburbs. Then most what you will have is simply elderly boomers moving to cities, which sort of diminishes the cool factor a bit and brings into question what will become of the cities once boomers leave the scene

  131. #132 – skeptic – I think only a small subset of families with children will choose to live there over suburbs

    Economics may force their hand as costs associated with living in the `burbs become too high.

  132. skep-tic says:

    the argument against suburbs from an economic standpoint (rather than fashion) is really about energy, right?

    I guess I’m just a little skeptical that energy is going to get so expensive anytime soon that it will dictate american lifestyle to that degree.

  133. Stu says:

    Favorite headline of the day…

    “Dow Chemical first-quarter profit drops 97 percent, but still beats Wall Street’s expectations”

  134. Stu says:

    And DOW Is up 19% on the release.

  135. jcer says:

    I truly believe there will be an urban renaissance. I see people moving in closer to urban centers. The fundamental reasons are not wanting the commute for work or play. The suburbs will still have plenty of people because some people wouldn’t give up the lifestyle. In NJ I don’t think the shift will be as dramatic as other states because by US standards NNJ is overwhelmingly urban, in the midwest Brigadoon would be considered a city. I think we will see more people living in close ring “suburbs”(Urban extensions, think close suburbs with their share of businesses and establishments) and cities proper.

  136. #134 – It centers mostly around energy. The suburbs are very inefficient in a number of other areas (admin, infrastructure, etc.) but energy is the biggie.
    Also, lofts are just so much more hip.

  137. jcer says:

    I think energy costs play into it but really the big key is convenience and cost. To live in the burbs with true convenience is very costly and still not that easy.

  138. skep-tic says:

    I was speaking to a friend of mine a couple of weeks ago who is a consultant in the energy field. He said the USA has 600 yrs worth of coal. Now obviously there is a cost to burning coal like a MF (look at China), but I tend to think most Americans when it comes down to it would prioritize keeping cheap power above a lot of other priorities. And if we do start burning coal on that level, cities are going to be awful places to live

  139. d2b says:

    Stu:
    I like when I hear that the ‘non-GAAP’ earnings are…
    or

    Earnings without one-time cahrges are…

    If it wasn’t for those pesky rules and laws we would have make our numbers.

  140. grim says:

    And if we do start burning coal on that level, cities are going to be awful places to live

    Ex-urban plants and transmission lines would fix that.

  141. 3b says:

    #104 clot: Most American are either too stupid, or do not care.

  142. Everything's 'boken says:

    My BIL has been in RR for 30 years. He says that the system is completely incapable of handling a switch to coal nationwide.

  143. 3b says:

    #135 stu: See all we would have needed was another 3%

  144. kettle1 says:

    skeptic,

    not judging, but coal is probably the biggest source of radioactive releases in the US

    http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/rev26-34/text/colmain.html

    Also note that the 60o yr figure is BS. It assumes a 0% growth rate and a number of other false assumptions.

    The real number is closer to 75 – 100 yrs

  145. kettle1 says:

    Also note that the 100 yr figure carries a number of caveats as well.

  146. Zack says:

    #136 Stu

    Try to understand what the stock is telling you and don’t outthink it. A stock trades on a day to day basis mostly on prevailing sentiments and emotions rather than fundamentals.

  147. kettle1 says:

    if a society is willing at accept the collateral damage imposed by extensive coal burning power generation then you would probably be better off going nuclear with a 3rd/4th gen reactor/breeder program.

  148. hirono says:

    Clot you said:

    “I think the best hope for our problems being short-lived lie in the hope that public outrage triggers armed insurgency and shortens the whole mess.”

    Your long on this type of talk but rather short on action.

    Why don’t you fire the first shot you pussy.

  149. hirono says:

    Clot you said:

    “I think the best hope for our problems being short-lived lie in the hope that public outrage triggers armed insurgency and shortens the whole mess.”

    Your long on this type of talk but rather short on action.

    Why don’t you fire the first shot you coward.

  150. Alap says:

    The swine flu is the result of the previous administrations incompetence. President Obama will cure it and save the world.

  151. John says:

    Professional Courtsey,lets see priced at under 37 with a yield over 16% and Moodys and S&P give out B ratings, I guess it is a community college B rating.

    MBIA INC BONDS 5.700% 12/01/2034
    Price (Ask) 36.500
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 16.150%
    55262CAJ9
    Moody’s Rating BA1
    S&P Rating BB+

  152. John says:

    Well maybe with enough coal power it will stop all wars as we will all be the same color.

  153. confused in nj says:

    Bloomberg’s Five Year Flu Disaster Plan has been implemented. It involves him advising people daily to stay home, wash their hands, and cover their mouths when coughing. He provided the advice in both broken English and broken Spanish.

  154. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    From WSJ “Huge new fields also have been found in Texas, Arkansas and Pennsylvania. One industry-backed study estimates the U.S. has more than 2,200 trillion cubic feet of gas waiting to be pumped, enough to satisfy nearly 100 years of current U.S. natural-gas demand.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124104549891270585.html

    For national security, our trucking fleets should be converted to NG

  155. John says:

    Ok I am setting up a meeting and guy tells me he can’t get a yes or no from his boss to attend as he suffers from reticent vacillation.

    That alone is enough reason to ban ivy league people from wall street.

  156. WaitingInRent says:

    Since people are plugging strollers. We looked long and decided on the Uppababy. Very happy with the purchase. Great around suburbia, a little difficult in the city. Put strolls up to the table so my 1 year old can sit either in it or the high chair at restaurants

  157. kettle1 says:

    condo:

    and yet only a fraction of that number is recoverable.

    regardless of size of energy reserve you have to answer 3 questions before you determine its utility:

    -cost of extraction
    -% recoverable from said reserve
    -flow rate

  158. JBJB says:

    Best stroller is The Bob. No question about it.

  159. Stu says:

    “Uppababy”

    That name alone scares me. Not that Bugaboo Frog was much better. Keep it clean and I’m sure some sucka will buy it from you off ebay.

  160. WaitingInRent says:

    “Uppababy”

    That name alone scares me. Not that Bugaboo Frog was much better. Keep it clean and I’m sure some sucka will buy it from you off ebay.

    Yes, but it is made in the USA (Boston I believe)….

  161. Stu says:

    I just checked out the Orbit stroller. $900!!! And I thought I was crazy. Orbit is a good name for it, considering the price tag :P

  162. 3b says:

    #156 John: The funny thing with Ivy league and Wall st, is that until the early 80’s most Ivy League people shunned the “street” as they felt it was beneath them.

    Guss levy and John Weinberg 2 goldman,actually wall street legends would not be hired there today.

    Not only were they not Ivy League, but Gus Levy never finidhed High School.

  163. kettle1 says:

    BC

    this is going to hurt:

    Mexico shuts down economy as flu pandemic imminent

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53N22820090430

  164. BC Bob says:

    kettle [164],

    Buying Peso’s?

  165. stan says:

    Frank,

    Hobo numbers were awful. Only sales that made money were long time owners. In fact, quite a few lost substantial amounts of $$$.

  166. BC Bob says:

    Stan [166],

    He continually grooves a fat meatball, right down the middle of the plate, for you. As ususal, out of the park.

  167. Shore Guy says:

    And then when we increase its usage by 5X for new purposes (like truck fuel) we end up reducing that suppply to 20 years.

  168. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    Please point me to the document that gets you to 5x increase in usage.

    I’ll take 20 years at this point!!

  169. Secondary Market says:

    @162 Stu, I’m still in sticker shock. We got it about $100 cheaper but it was still less than the Bugaboo and it’s accessories needed to make it comparable.

    As far as energy, once Nuclear finally finds its right PR pitch It’ll be the right way to go. But I think Green Gore and friends are way too partisan to properly educate the mass its benefits.

  170. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    Just don’t cool the breeders with liquid Na and watch out for that whole weapons-grade Pu issue.

  171. Shore Guy says:

    Condo,

    E-85, LNG, etc., for energy are all just stopgaps. We should just go whole hog into photovoltaics and every other method of extracting energy from the sun — both for direct use, batteries, and splitting water to create H — and THAT would accomplish something with respect to both energy and national security isues. We might as well save ourselves another intermediate step and not focus on LNG.

  172. PGC says:

    I think Mrs PGC had seven strollers last time I counted.

    The big one was a Valco Runabout that we added the toddler seat on the front and a buggy board on back so I can push all three kids at once.

  173. Stu says:

    Energy misers…

    About 15 years ago, I was driving to Cincy to visit my sister who recently moved out that way for a great job opportunity (talk about cheap housing). Well I saw the cooling towers from the highway of a huge nuke plant (Susquehanna) so decided to stop to see if I could get a tour. At the time, I was way into energy, power and transportation issues and had been lucky enough to have a professor who gave us access to the Tokamak down in the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. Well I drove up to the plant and virtually walked right up to the reactor building before someone asked me what I was doing. Somehow I evaded the plant security and was nearly arrested for it. Well anyhow, I ended up scheduling a tour for my return home since they needed to check my credentials with the authorities (which was surprising since this was pre-911). So upon my return, I received the tour with the actual plant manager. It was by far the most intriguing tour ever. I was actually able to walk around inside one of the reactors since it was shut down for maintenance. I even wore ‘silkwood’ style hazmat suits. Best of all was the radiation detector I had to wear around my neck the entire time to make sure I did not receive any undesired doses of radiation.

    There were two factoids I learned that I still remember clearly from that tour. First, the plant operators worked 20 hour shifts twice per week. It had something to do with weird safety issues. Second, I asked why Chernobyl was such a disaster and Three Mile Island was not. He said, the containment structure was not yet fully built at Chernobyl hence the massive release of radiation. He also said, that of all of the media hype around Three Mile Island, the total release of radiation into the atmosphere was equal to that of three chest x-rays. Of course, the nuke plant manager might have had some built-in bias.

    So be careful when you travel with me. You might be forced to stop to investigate power plants and/or rollercoasters we might happen to pass.

    IMO, I still think Hydrogen will eventually become the next major energy source revolution, but not before we exhaust our oil and NG resources a bit more.

  174. DuckVader says:

    Stu says:
    April 30, 2009 at 12:36 pm

    I just checked out the Orbit stroller. $900!!! And I thought I was crazy. Orbit is a good name for it, considering the price tag :P

    —————-
    I guess it’s the same as with most things – perception that more expensive is better. We’ve basically stuck with the Japanese Combi stroller.

  175. Stu says:

    Stroller talk.

    The saddest thing about all of this mad stroller business is that we ended up using our free Toys R Us umbrella stroller probably twice as much as we used the bugaboo due to it’s tiny size and weight.

  176. Everything's 'boken says:

    Forget wind and solar. The environmental lobby will never allow use of an area large enough (1/2 of N Dakota, for example).

  177. Stu says:

    ‘boken,

    I agree. The efficiency of these solutions is still way to low. Only an uninformed greenie would really see these two as solutions.

    And there is no such thing as clean coal. Ever see how the black poison is mined?

  178. chicagofinance says:

    WSJ
    REAL ESTATE APRIL 30, 2009
    A Short Sale May Not Mean You’re Home Free By RUTH SIMON
    Financially troubled borrowers may think that foreclosure or a short sale of their home means their mortgage woes are over.

    Not necessarily.

    Some homeowners are finding that when they sell their homes for less than the outstanding mortgages — a so-called short sale — their mortgage companies are going after them for some or all of the difference. Mortgage companies are also sometimes taking legal action to recover unpaid amounts after a foreclosure is completed.

    In a growing number of cases, holders of mortgages or home-equity loans are requiring borrowers in short sales to sign a promissory note, which is a written promise to pay back a loan or debt. Real-estate agents and attorneys say they have seen an increase in requests for promissory notes as mortgage companies look to short sales as an alternative to foreclosure.

    In many states, lenders have always had the right to pursue former homeowners for unpaid mortgage debt. Yet until recently, most borrowers who ran into trouble were able to refinance or sell their homes and pay off their loans. Now, falling home prices are widening the gap between home values and mortgage balances, and the number of homeowners who can’t make their mortgage payments is rising as the economy has weakened. More than 3.8 million homes will be lost in 2009 and 2010 because borrowers can’t make their mortgage payments, according to forecasts from Moody’s Economy.com.

    Here are some factors they may consider:
    How big was the unpaid debt?
    Was the property purchased as an investment?
    What are the borrower’s assets and income?
    What is the policy of the investor or mortgage insurer?

    Jodie Byrd sold her home in the Los Angeles area in a short sale last summer after her husband lost his job and the couple realized they wouldn’t be able to make their mortgage payments. The sale price covered the $685,000 mortgage, but their lender, Washington Mutual Co., then began pursuing them for the $21,600 balance on their second mortgage.

    Ms. Byrd says a clause in their contract gave Washington Mutual the right to pursue the debt, but adds that her real-estate agent said that wasn’t likely to happen. The couple eventually settled the claim for $4,000.

    A spokesman for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which acquired Washington Mutual last year, says it’s the company’s policy not to comment on individual cases. Speaking generally, he says, “a short sale may resolve the first mortgage, but the second mortgage … would be a separate negotiation with the lender or servicer.”

    Some experts say that mortgage companies may pursue leftover debt, or “deficiencies,” in greater numbers as the housing market settles. Lenders are “doing everything possible to work with their borrowers and trying to bring stability back to the lending and real-estate market,” says Marc Ben-Ezra, an attorney in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., who represents mortgage companies in foreclosures. “However, the ability to get a deficiency judgment is a valuable right that I think lenders will pursue aggressively in the future as the market stabilizes.”

    One-Year Moratorium
    HSBC Finance, part of the North America unit of HSBC Holdings PLC, has implemented a one-year moratorium on the collection of deficiency balances for short sales and foreclosures that occur after April 1, “given the current economic environment,” a company spokeswoman says.

    Other mortgage servicers say their actions are often dictated by their contracts with investors or mortgage insurers. Bank of America Corp., for example, will “attempt to seek a promissory note whenever it is feasible” in a short sale “in the interest of protecting investors and shareholders from the losses,” a spokeswoman says. In the case of a foreclosure, the investor or insurer “is generally the one who pursues the deficiency, but we do ourselves on some-bank-owned assets,” she says.

    Not every troubled borrower is hit with such a claim. Often, mortgage companies don’t go after borrowers for unpaid amounts either because state laws prohibit or limit such actions or the cost outweighs the potential return. Borrowers subject to a deficiency may also elect to file for bankruptcy in an effort to have the debt discharged.

    How a borrower is treated can depend on mortgage company policy, the size of the unpaid debt, whether the borrower has a job or other assets, or whether the home was bought as an investment. “If there isn’t a financial hardship … that’s where the investor or mortgage insurer will go after the homeowner for more,” says David Knight, a senior vice president at Wells Fargo & Co.’s home-mortgage unit.

    A PMI Group Inc. spokesman says the mortgage insurer “primarily target[s] borrowers who are not experiencing hardship — but those who simply elected to walk away from the property due to its decline in value.”

    Promissory Notes
    Still, the number of short-sale agreements that are made with strings attached is increasing. In the past month and a half, “every short sale I have has had a promissory note or gives the lender the right to collect a deficiency,” says Pamela Simmons, an attorney in Soquel, Calif., who represents financially troubled homeowners. Often, the terms are buried in the sale contract, she says.

    Regina Rivard, a real-estate consultant in Apollo Beach, Fla., has completed 22 short sales in the past six months. In half of them, the holder of the first or second mortgage required that the borrower sign a promissory note or retained the right to pursue the deficiency. The amounts borrowers were obliged to pay ranged from a few thousand dollars to as much as $100,000, she says.

    Some borrowers are balking. Mack Ransom, a mortgage broker in Ashland, Ore., recently brought Countrywide Financial Corp. a short-sale offer for $279,000 — well below the roughly $415,000 he owes on his two mortgages. Countrywide countered that it would accept a $310,000 bid, provided Mr. Ransom signed a $48,000 promissory note, he says. Mr. Ransom rejected that offer and is pursuing a different short sale.

    “I would take the foreclosure and the credit hit over that,” he says. A spokeswoman for Bank of America, which acquired Countrywide last year, declined to comment on a specific case, but said: “The company will ask the borrower to sign a promissory note during the short-sale process if dictated by investor guidelines.”

    Going to Court
    Other borrowers who have already gone through foreclosure are being taken to court by mortgage companies for unpaid debt, though such actions are still relatively uncommon. In Lee County, Fla., deficiency actions have increased in the past six months, with most filed by holders of second mortgages, says Charlie Green, clerk of Lee County Circuit Court. “The sale of the property was not enough to cover the total amount that was owed on the note or notes,” says Mr. Green, who recently began tracking such filings in response to the increase.

    Dunstant King, a cab driver in Boston, refinanced his mortgage in 2007, thinking it would save him money. Instead, his payments increased as the economy slowed. In January, Mr. King, who had a $290,400 mortgage and a $72,600 home-equity loan, lost his home to foreclosure. In February, a lawsuit seeking $92,000 was filed in Suffolk County, Mass., Superior Court on behalf of the loan pool that holds the second mortgage, according to court records.

    “I don’t have the money to pay them,” says Mr. King. “Business is really bad.” His attorney, David Dineen of Greater Boston Legal Services, says, “We believe Mr. King has legal defenses” to avoid that debt.

    A spokesman for Deutsche Bank AG, the trustee for the loan pool, says that the decision to file the lawsuit was made by the mortgage-servicing company, Franklin Credit Management Corp. Franklin executives did not respond to requests for comment.

    Blake Brewer, an attorney in Independence, Ohio, is currently representing a borrower who completed a short sale with the approval of his lender, National City Corp. The following year, Mr. Brewer’s client was sued for the $65,000 loan balance, plus accrued interest, on his home-equity line of credit. The borrower “fully believed National City understood they weren’t going to get paid,” says Mr. Brewer.

    A spokesman for PNC Corp., which acquired National City late last year, said the company’s policy is not to comment on pending litigation.

  179. Sean says:

    re: #131 – Kettle1

    Durbin ran into a brick wall this week, he had been working on getting a compromise on the “Cramdown” legislation so it would pass the procedural 60 votes needed for a full vote today.

    The senate versions of the housing reform bill may pass today and a separate cramdown bill will be worked on sometime in the future, or maybe never.

  180. JBJB says:

    “Hydrogen will eventually become the next major energy source revolution”

    Hydrogen is not an enrgy source, mearly a potential carrier, and comes primarliy from fossil fuels or steam reformation of methane. To make H2 from water as someone suggested earlier, you need a lot of energy input, which today is usually done w/ electricity made from coal. Making H2 from water usuing photons is a potentiall game changer, but we have yet to figure out how to mimic photosythesis on an industrial scale. But why would you use soalar power (or nuclear) to make H2 instead of just making electricity? I think H2 is the least viable option of all the alt fuels.

  181. Alexnyc88 says:

    What about the damn Fort Lee prices? Why is everyone there behaving like they earn $200K per year + bonuses? I thought its a middle class neighborhood.

  182. PGC says:

    #176 Stu

    “The saddest thing about all of this mad stroller business is that we ended up using our free Toys R Us umbrella stroller probably twice as much as we used the bugaboo due to it’s tiny size and weight.”

    What is sadder is that I was sent into NYC specifically to get a Times Sq Geoffry the giraffe design special edition.

  183. yikes says:

    On government orders, China’s universities — most of which are state-controlled — boosted enrollment by up to 30% a year, year after year for most of this decade, and built vast new campuses. Financing was considered a cinch: New students would mean more tuition to pay off the loans that funded the expansion. But those plans were wildly optimistic, leaving hundreds of universities across China crippled by debt.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124087181303261033.html

  184. Sean says:

    for the stroller obsessed.

    http://www.prammuseum.com

  185. Sean says:

    re: #181 – Hydrogen has a chance.

    MIT has patented a new catalyst based electrolyzer that will make extraction cheaper.

    This new technology is powered by a 6 meter by 5 meter photovoltaic array on the roof, and is capable of powering an entire house’s power needs plus a fuel cell good for 500 km of travel, with just 5 liters of water.

    It also works at room temperature.

    That is if the oil companies don’t buy the rights to develop the technology.

    http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/oxygen-0731.html

  186. sas says:

    I’m scared…

    SAS

  187. sas says:

    please.. govt do something.
    :)
    SAS

  188. bi says:

    here is another sign showing that this recession is a mild one if it ever happened: soon after 5:00 pm, this board becomes a ghost city each day.

  189. about says:

    grim-
    we are renting and have 20% to place on a 500K home, and thought we’d be buying this year. Although it seems very tempting for 1st time home buyers now, my husband wants to wait 3 years (he’s coming up on a retirement and will be starting a second career)… he’s convinced that although the rates may be higher, that prices will be lower and not on the rise. also feels that it will give us some perspective of where nj is going with taxes…maybe we could look elsewhere for ‘good school systems’.
    Any opinions about trying to time this purchase right?
    thanks.

  190. zieba says:

    bi,
    Is your F5 key worn out?

  191. John says:

    Those are green shoots!!!!!!!!!!! When people fear layoffs they stay late for face time. That is people out spending their bull market cash!!

    bi says:
    April 30, 2009 at 2:04 pm
    here is another sign showing that this recession is a mild one if it ever happened: soon after 5:00 pm, this board becomes a ghost city each day.

  192. bi says:

    to me all this banker-bashing is a subtle form of anti-semitism. most folks here cannot see it. only smart people like marc faber can see it.

  193. John says:

    Take the 100K and rent an amazing place for 60k in the Hamptons and blow 40K on partying all summer, by October we will all be dead of swine flu anyhow so use that money up now.

    about says:
    April 30, 2009 at 2:08 pm
    grim-
    we are renting and have 20% to place on a 500K home, and thought we’d be buying this year. Although it seems very tempting for 1st time home buyers now, my husband wants to wait 3 years (he’s coming up on a retirement and will be starting a second career)… he’s convinced that although the rates may be higher, that prices will be lower and not on the rise. also feels that it will give us some perspective of where nj is going with taxes…maybe we could look elsewhere for ‘good school systems’.
    Any opinions about trying to time this purchase right?
    thanks.

  194. JBJB says:

    “perspective of where nj is going with taxes”

    That’s an easy one. If Corslime wins again in Nov, there will be a major push to fleece home owners (primarily suburban), cause that’s were the money is.

    If he loses, I still don’t see much hope, but the rate of increase could at least be tempered.

  195. Stu says:

    JBJB: I agree about the obstacles around the potential of hydrogen as an energy source, but I think technology advances truly has the potential to make it possible.

    We’ll see I suppose.

  196. NJCoast says:

    Silver Cross (preferably the Balmoral)is the only appropriate pram for the Allenhurst boardwalk/Deal-Ocean Ave set.

  197. Stu says:

    “to me all this banker-bashing is a subtle form of anti-semitism.”

    As a Jew, I think your finding is preposterous.

  198. about says:

    194.. yes john, we are keeping our options open.

  199. JBJB says:

    Sean

    OK, I am familiar with that MIT study, which is awfully short on actual data but did generate a lot of hype. Not to mention, to operate such a process on an industrial scale would likely require more platinum metal than is currently available on earth. Add I will add, even if commercially feasible (which it is not)why would use such a process to make H2 to then run through a fuel cell? Why not just use the solar derived electricty directly? They are essentially describing a suped-up, grossly expensive battery. Methinks Dr. Nocera may have been spinning the story to keep the DOE/NIH funding comming in. Fair enough, but lets not get crazy.

  200. kettle1 says:

    Shore,

    Run liquid thorium breeders

  201. Stu says:

    about:

    Be careful taking advice from John. He might suggest you invest in some bonds in this particular industry.

    http://farm1.static.flickr.com/129/395282854_8d3a6f8f40.jpg?v=0

  202. PGC says:

    #197 NJCoast

    I grew up in a Kensington.

    My mother was going to ship one over for us, but I managed to talk her out of it. It is too big and polished to go in and out of a car and it is to big and bulky for the subway or buses. Once the child hits toddler level, they just climb out of it.

  203. ruggles says:

    On energy – Its unlikely that man and other current species will inhabit the Earth for much more time than the dinosaurs and other past creatures did so I say destroy the environment while we’re here. Coal for everyone! Mother Earth will clean up our mess.

    On strollers – If you’re spending more than 100 bucks on these things then you probably have such a gifted child (headed for a fancy overpriced school district) that he learned to walk in the womb and doesn’t need one.

  204. John says:

    Me too, after all the bankers are losing money.

    Stu says:
    April 30, 2009 at 2:17 pm
    “to me all this banker-bashing is a subtle form of anti-semitism.”

    As a Jew, I think your finding is preposterous.

  205. Barbara says:

    anyone catch the Children of Chernobyl on HBO? I’ll take hampster wheels over nuke energy. Didn’t change my mind, just strengthened my resolve.

  206. Stu says:

    Barbara,

    Investigate what caused the issue in Chernobyl. Then take a look at the damage done to the workers in a coal mining town. Coal is used to produce 25% of the world’s energy. The way China is growing, that number will increase dramatically in the near future.

  207. yikes says:

    A.West says:
    April 29, 2009 at 10:44 am

    retard101 is a postmodern troll, in that he’s transparently a figment of someone’s imagination, yet that person refuses to admit that the shadow puppet isn’t “as real as a heart attack”.

    A bit like the character Gradus in Nabokov’s “Pale Fire”. A secondary character invented by an invented and delusional author.

    a top 10 comment in the history of this blog. agree 100,000%

  208. Barbara says:

    Stu,
    its the half lives that get me, and the babies with brains on their shoulders.

  209. Barbara says:

    stu, also with regards to mismanagement, we bungle plenty here too, its just that the damage was limited to years with Valdeez (sp?) as opposed hundreds of years. I can see the 2030 prez elections now…the Energy Industry is OVER REGULATED!!! Privatize it!!! Boom.

  210. Barbara says:

    2030? my math may be off ;P

  211. zieba says:

    I thought the fallout in Chernobyl was due to the fact that they skipped construction of a fall-back cap structure due to the high cost.

    Think you have a tough gig? How about the armies of “rubber robots” who were assigned with the task of shoveling graphite and soil over the void in the hours and days following the diseaster.

    I would love to take one of the ecological tours through the area but I figured I’d be wise to plant my seed first.

  212. 3b says:

    #189 bi: So now you even challenge that there was a recession?

  213. 3b says:

    #195 JBJB:cause that’s were the money is.

    Or that’s where the money was.

  214. kettle1 says:

    barbara,

    how about the children of love canal? nuclear isnt significantly different from something like the industrial chemical industry. Massive exposure to toxic compounds is going to be problematic regardless of whether or not the source is radioactive.

    The primary issue is that the majority of reactors in the world are built based on a dual purpose design. With the duel purpose being energy production and weapons material production.

    It entirely possible to build air colled reactors that require no active cooling systems and cannot be used for weapons material. The problem is that the government played a big part in initial reactor designed and wanted dual purpose reactors as part of weapons development during the cold war.

  215. Alexnyc88 says:

    #190 we are in exact same position, we have the money to guve 20%, but we feel prices are still too high. I want to see at least 30% off 2006 peaks.

  216. yikes says:

    i really hope the market can go up to maybe 9500. that way, i can cash out the few stocks that i didn’t.

    im probably pushing my luck waiting for them to get back where i bought them in 06/07, but i dont need the money now.

    so here’s to a smaller little uptick in the market … after that, i dont care what happens

  217. kettle1 says:

    barb

    its the half lives that get me

    the neat thing about 3rd/fourth generation reactor tech is that you can use what is currently considered nuclear fuel waste as a primary fuel and in so doing breaking down the materials (transmuting them) to a material that has a very short half life relative to traditional waste.

    What is currently considered nuclear reactor waste is actually prime fuel material for 3rd and 4th generation reactors.

    Re Chernobyl:

    The real root cause of Chernobyl is that the russians with with an positively unstable reaction design as opposed to a negatively unstable reaction design.

    In a positively unstable design, the reactor will continue to heat up and increase rate of reaction until it melts down or goes kaboom. In a negatively unstable reactor, the reaction will inherently collapse and shut down unless carefully controlled to be kept within its operational range.

    On the night of the reactor accident at Chernobyl, the primary and secondary b safety systems were shut down and the reactor went unstable. being positively unstable by design, it went kaboom

  218. Barbara says:

    kettle,
    its like a nasty pomeranian vs a friendly pit bull. Nasty pom will nip at people every day, maybe even draw blood. Otherwise friendly pit bull has one bad day and its game over.

  219. Barbara says:

    221
    kettle,
    that is interesting, did not know about that.

  220. chicagofinance says:

    A.West says:
    April 29, 2009 at 10:44 am
    A bit like the character Gradus in Nabokov’s “Pale Fire”. A secondary character invented by an invented and delusional author.

    West: so odd you brought up this author today….I just had one of those unique John experiences…..I am sitting in the Red Bank Starbucks about 20 minutes ago, and the Catholic School (RBC) lets out so the place streams full of girls in their uniforms…..after about 15 minutes they all file out. I, having, finishing off the WSJ and my coffee, get up to leave and notice a girl sitting on one of the barstools reading a book. Fine, I couldn’t care less. However, she turns around toward me, crosses her legs (which was immodest in her short skirt uniform and that I am at a regular table below her). Anyway, she is voraciously reading Nabokov……get this…Lolita.

    I sped out of there before my brain exploded.

  221. Against The Grain says:

    Interesting story about a motorcycle tour through the Chernobyl region:

    http://www.kiddofspeed.com/chapter1.html

  222. kettle1 says:

    barb,

    nasty pomeranian vs a friendly pit bull

    I am not a doctor, but from the studies i have looked at chronic exposure to nasty chemicals or radiation seems to be fairly comparable. Both can cause rapid and unpleasant deaths at high enough exposure or exposure to certain species of chemicals/ radionucleotides.

    With both, long term low level exposure can cause increased incidents of a laundry list of conditions. Both can also cause genetic damage that may be passed to offspring.

    In my personal opinion i think to some degree radio-nucleotides have a safety aspect that standard chemical pollution does not. You can get a geiger counter for $100 and it will pick up a radiation source of almost any type. if there were a leak into a stream behind your house could easily tell if you chose to check and that leak would probably be easily traceable.

    With chemical pollutants it is not often cheap to test for them even if the test is simple. you also do not have a universal test cheaply and easily available to anyone who chose to do so.

    I am not trying to cheerlead for nuclear power. but i do think that it should be looked at in equal comparison to compounds and industries that people readily accept exposure to on a regular basis. Unfortunately there is probably more misinformation then not in the public realm

  223. Barbara says:

    kettle, but aside from coal the chemicals you are talking about are not about energy, they come from other industries. Apples and oranges.

  224. Barbara says:

    and I understand that nuke plants when running efficiently are very clean. Its when the accident happens, and it will happen are we really going to use magical thinking when it comes to clean nuke energy and pretend that a major accident will never happen? In order of nuclear to become a major supplier, you need many. Eventually something is going to go wrong.

  225. RentinginNJ says:

    In order of nuclear to become a major supplier, you need many. Eventually something is going to go wrong.

    Nuclear already is a major supplier; about 50% of NJ’s generation comes from nuclear.

  226. JBJB says:

    “In order of nuclear to become a major supplier, you need many. Eventually something is going to go wrong.”

    The same could be said for just about anything. If fact, nuke plants have operated all over the world for a long time with a very few problems. The success rate is probably better than for any other major industrial process known to man. The safety issue w/ nuclear is a major red herring IMHO.

  227. Stu says:

    Nuke power makes up 6% of the world’s energy production and is used to produce 100% of the power in many European countries.

  228. kettle1 says:

    barbara,

    i disagree on the apple/orange diffierence. You can measure the radioactive fallout from coal power plants.

    the source of the chemical is irrelevant. the point was that [people are exposed to a myriad of these chemical every day, and from a medical impoact standpoint there is little difference between them and and equivilent levels of radionucleotides in terms of risk assessment.

    Nuclear is not a tech to be taken lightly just as industrial chemical production is not, both can kill and cause huge disasters.

    For a good example of an industrial chemical disaster that had a huge scale look at Bopal inida, or love canal niagra falls. Nuclear can have a big impact as well. but it shouldn’t be any more scary then a coal power plant.

  229. jcer says:

    I see a good base in nuclear power(Esp. Breeder reactors) but i also think more localized power sources need to be placed on the grid. I think expanding solar power with newer, cheaper, more efficient photovoltaics is a step in the right direction. I think the killer application of fuel cell research is not necessarily hydrogen but methane, captured from organic waste. I think there is room for biofuels as well. I think more efficient/effective methods of making ethanol or plant based oil will come and make this idea more viable. Coal is not the answer. Too many downsides to consider it. Ideally our power sources need to renewable and carbon neutral.

  230. Barbara says:

    “i disagree on the apple/orange diffierence. You can measure the radioactive fallout from coal power plants.”
    its apples and oranges because we are talking about a specific industry and its future. To defend your argument by throwing in the impact of other unrealted industries is a little diversionary.

  231. Stu says:

    Perhaps we could solve our energy needs by simply attaching dynamos to stroller wheels?

  232. JBJB says:

    jcer

    Do you mean a methanol FC, like a DMFC? or some continuous process using gaseous CH4? methane gas compression would kill you for a stand alone system no?

    “Coal is not the answer” – you’ve never met a midwestern politician.

  233. kettle1 says:

    barbara,

    last point and i will shutup. I wasnt trying to be diversionary. My point was that industries should be held to similar standards. If a society is willing to accept the consequences from industry X, then there is no real reason why a different industry that has similar impacts should be anymore demonized.

    regardless, enough of beating a dead horse. :)

  234. kettle1 says:

    Perhaps we could solve our energy needs by simply attaching dynamos to stroller wheels?

    Stu for energy secretary!!!

  235. HEHEHE says:

    “Perhaps we could solve our energy needs by simply attaching dynamos to stroller wheels?”

    That or harness the methane emitting from Bi’s posts.

  236. Doyle says:

    Holy Nerd Herd :)

  237. jcer says:

    JBJB, yes like a dmfc or even rmfc, compression is an issue and scrubbing the impurities is another. Fuel cells are a tough problem to begin with and methanol cells make it even tougher, the water loop,methanol leakage and CO2 removal to create a controlled efficient chemical reaction makes for a very difficult control system. But there is so much methane that could be captured and put to use if they could figure out how to do it more effectively and on a small scale.

  238. JBJB says:

    242

    my guess is that methane from waste would also have to be scrubbed on the way in as well to prevent catalyst poisoning and other nagging problems.

  239. kettle1 says:

    SAS,

    you’ll love this

    Pumping and Dumping the 401(k) Crowd
    http://maxkeiser.com/2009/04/29/max-blog-pumping-and-dumping-the-401k-crowd/#more-984

  240. kettle1 says:

    Gee think the improvement in performance is sustainable????

    Catastrophic Quarter Is Averted as Job Cuts Help Profits Exceed Estimates

    Corporate earnings worldwide haven’t been the disaster analysts predicted as companies from Ford Motor Co. to Siemens AG beat earnings estimates through job cuts, factory consolidations and a dose of lowered expectations

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=at35Pc9vufo8&refer=home

    who buy’s your products when the workers lose their pay checks?

  241. kettle1 says:

    Clot 3b BC

    check out this math:

    US taxpayers face $1,900bn bill, fears IMF
    Efforts to stabilise the financial system could end up costing US taxpayers about 13.3 percent of annual output, or $1,900bn, over the next five years, according to analysis by the International Monetary Fund

    The estimate of the cost of guarantees is based on institution-by-institution analysis of likely defaults and recovery rates, while the cost of Fed loans is based on a 90 percent recovery rate.

    http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=Business_News&subsection=market+news&month=April2009&file=Business_News2009043065315.xml

  242. kettle1 says:

    LOL

    Fed Keeps ‘Powder Dry’ While Waiting for End of U.S. Recession
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aLtqu0GAjKns&refer=home

  243. 3b says:

    #247 kettle: The article describes the rrecession as possibly waning.

    How do you wane, when you s Still have unemployment rising,and probably hitting 10% by year end, or early 2010?

    Do you feel my pain,when one has to read these articele written by these so called experts?

  244. kettle1 says:

    3b,

    i feel your pain. but 10% by the end of the year???? we are n track for 15% U3 if the current growth rate does not abate. 10% is baked in as BC likes to say. The question is do we see 12% or 16% in december.

    if thats not enough fun for you, something like 20% of retailer sales come from holiday shopping. how does that work out when we are are 10+% U3? What does that do to a 70% consumer spending bades economy?

  245. HEHEHE says:

    Job Pessimism Picking Up Again

    Posted by Tyler Durden at 2:58 PM
    Some 3rd derivative fun – as the chart below shows, the differential between those who see “Jobs Not So Plentiful” and “Jobs As Plentiful” is not only consistently high, but has demonstrated the first rise since October 2008: quite a bearish signal for jobs. Put this in your 2nd derivative green shoot pipe CNBC.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/job-pessimism-picking-up-again.html

  246. HEHEHE says:

    Breaking: Sad Day at Kilpatrick Stockton

    We’re not entirely sure of all the details, but there appears to be a very sad situation developing at Kilpatrick Stockton D.C. today. Everybody in Kilpatrick’s building received this email this morning:

    Good morning,
    Please remain in our space until further notice. Metropolitan Police Department are currently responding to an unconscious male with a gunshot wound to the head on the 11th floor of Kilpatrick & Stockton. We are contacting building management to determine further information.

    We will keep you posted.

    Thank you.

    http://abovethelaw.com/2009/04/breaking_sad_day_at_kilpatrick.php#more

    Permanent solution to temporary problems

  247. Sean says:

    re #247 Kettle1 the Fed was misquoted. “Powder Dry” was meant to say the our printer ink doesn’t dry out.

  248. kettle1 says:

    Sean 252,

    that makes more sense, thanks for clearing that up

  249. sas says:

    “A summer GTG?”

    if I’m not dead & gone after my upcoming assignments, I’d like to attend.

    SAS

  250. sas says:

    “Food Stamps Create Jobs… in India
    Several States With High Unemployment Are Outsourcing Food Stamp Services”

    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=7452561&page=1

  251. BC Bob says:

    My father received his $250 stimulus check yesterday. His comment, “You guys are screwed”

  252. HEHEHE says:

    2009 YTD Bank Failures Already Most Since 1993
    Posted on April 27, 2009 by Kevin LaCroix
    Email This

    Print

    Comments
    Trackbacks With the addition of four more bank closures this past Friday night, the YTD number of bank failures now stands at 29, which already exceeds 2008’s total of 25 and is the highest annual total since 1993, at the end of the last era of failed banks. All signs are that the number of bank failures will continue to grow in the months ahead, a prospect that is already affecting the D&O insurance marketplace, even for smaller community banks.

    http://www.dandodiary.com/2009/04/articles/failed-banks/2009-ytd-bank-failures-already-most-since-1993/

  253. sas says:

    “Top Senate Democrat: bankers “own” the U.S. Congress”
    http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/04/30/ownership/

    -Sen. Dick Durbin, on a local Chicago radio station this week, blurted out an obvious truth about Congress that, despite being blindingly obvious, is rarely spoken: “And the banks — hard to believe in a time when we’re facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created — are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place.” The blunt acknowledgment that the same banks that caused the financial crisis “own” the U.S. Congress — according to one of that institution’s most powerful members — demonstrates just how extreme this institutional corruption is.

  254. kettle1 says:

    155 condo,

    from your article

    One industry-backed study estimates the U.S. has more than 2,200 trillion cubic feet of gas waiting to be pumped, enough to satisfy nearly 100 years of current U.S. natural-gas demand.

    that 100 yrs assumes that natural gas consumption rates do not increase over the 100 year period. If the rate of natural gas consumption were to grow at an average rate of 3% per year then you would use the entire stated reserves in 45 years at 2% in 55 years, and at 1% growth, in 69 years.

    the really ugly part is that the actually recoverable reserves can be 30% to 70% with the general average probably being close to 40% recovery

    assuming 40% recovery and a 3% annual growth in consumption, we could consume the entire stated reserve in 26 years. In a best case scenario of 70% recovery and 1% consumption growth rate we would exhaust the reserve in 53 years.

    A reasonable estimate would suggest that the stated reserves actually represent 30 to 45 years worth of supply. This of course ignores cost of extraction issues which would further reduce the actual total recovery.

    if you want to include those a very rough guesstimate would be a total supply of 25 to 35 years based on the stated reserves

  255. kettle1 says:

    condo,

    a good rule of thumb; whenever you hear the media state the size of an energy reserve, assume that what is actually recoverable is 30%.

  256. A.West says:

    ChiFi,
    Wow. I wonder if she meant for you to be her Humbert Humbert or perhaps her Quilty, when she tires of him.
    Congrats for walking away from that engraved invitation. I imagine John would have finished that story differently.

  257. BklynHawk says:

    235/ChiFi-

    All for a summer GTG. Not sure I want wine from a WinePod?

  258. Barbara says:

    Ok,
    This one is for Gary.
    I was a skeptic but I’m finally seeing real asking price reductions on decent houses in Montclair. I check every two week or so and the last 2 seem to have a lot of keepin’ it real pricing mixed in with the usual OMGWTFBBQ pricing.
    Of course, the prop taxes….

  259. stan says:

    Frank…….Hoboken is getting crushed,

    Hoboken condos 11 sold
    # 1 210 Jackson street closed for 420k, identical condo paid 500k in 2007 LOST 80K
    #2 1222 washington, paid 412k in 2006, closed for 320k LOST 92k
    #3 626 jefferson sold for 475,000 purchased in 1998 for 220k
    #4 152 6th street sold for 314k last purchased for 175k in 2000(updated recently)
    (smaller place sold for 35k more last year)
    #5 1300 grand street, sold for 445k, bought from builder for 317k in 2005, (dp in 2003, these places are down 10-15% from peak pricing)
    #6 700 1st street, sold for 475k, bought for 515k in 2004!!! Lost 40k in five years
    #7 307 first street developer release sold for 408k, neighbor paid 467k 10/08 for identical unit across the hall
    #8 bought for 470k, last purchase for 580k in 2006 (110k loss)
    #9 510 Monroe St, sold for 5490k, last purchased for 530k in 2004
    #10 129 willow, made a profit…..342k, last sold for 280 in 2005, was remodeled however
    #11 904 jefferson, sold for 499k, purchased for 481k in 2005……An acquaintance of mine paid in the 500’s, was there a few weeks ago, nice building

  260. BC Bob says:

    Stan [266],

    When Frank said the Hoboken market was on fire, he meant sellers were getting torched.

  261. yikes says:

    necessary nighttime viewing:

    BUlls-Celtics.
    Already a skirmish one quarter in. There will be blood … by the third quarter.

    Go Chicago

  262. confused in nj says:

    A large Tread Mill, placed at the border, and powered by incoming illegals, could provide a never ending supply of cheap electricity. A second Tread Mill at the border, for captured exiting illegals, could provide an additional small amount of cheap electricity. Those making 100 round trips could gain automatic citizenship.

  263. stan says:

    BC- ha your right

    he’ll be back next week again…..same ol story.

    the pace of decline is really accelerating here on the gold coast. It’s interesting to watch.

    Rents/prices dropping in tandem.

  264. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #262,

    just use it as a comparison versus US oil reserves

  265. stan says:

    I rarely make predicitions, but Biden will make Dan Quayle look like john Adams by the time he retires…..

  266. grim says:

    Prices ain’t up, but a new thread is!

    Up Up Up!

  267. flowerboy says:

    The BOB stroller is the bomb. Maclaren for easy trips.

  268. Firestormik says:

    Stu says:
    April 30, 2009 at 8:58 am

    Trust me, it was one the most difficult purchases I ever made in my life. :P
    ————-
    Same here, then I realized that $200-$300 loss in 2-3 years is not such a big deal. Quality and handling is amazing

  269. JBJB says:

    [275]

    Word.

  270. Firestormik says:

    bi says:
    April 30, 2009 at 2:04 pm
    here is another sign showing that this recession is a mild one if it ever happened: soon after 5:00 pm, this board becomes a ghost city each day.
    ———————————–
    Yeap. Working our asses on side jobs

  271. Firestormik says:

    Barbara says:
    April 30, 2009 at 2:37 pm
    anyone catch the Children of Chernobyl on HBO? I’ll take hampster wheels over nuke energy. Didn’t change my mind, just strengthened my resolve.
    ———————————-
    Saw that. But do you know what actually happened there? They were doing a very stupid experiment. I know a very good site build in FLASH showing what’s hapened in real time. If anybody intrested I think I can translate it for you. My family moved in a city which was 60 miles from Chernobyl in 1986, my father came there in April (blowout happened it May), and the rest of the family had no choice but to move in August. And I’m still kicking :)

  272. Firestormik says:

    Forgot to mention the city I was born. Once a year my father, being a dean of a university, had to order windows clean up. Guess with what? Hydrogen fluoride!
    In Donbass area (Ukraine now) I guess it was worse in 80s the it’s now in China.

  273. Firestormik says:

    kettle1 says:
    April 30, 2009 at 3:06 pm
    On the night of the reactor accident at Chernobyl, the primary and secondary b safety systems were shut down and the reactor went unstable. being positively unstable by design, it went kaboom
    ————————-
    Not exactly, but very close. After they pulled out emergency and manual graphite sticks, while pumping double flow of water in order to stir the reactor to the half nominal power, they cut the auxulary pump – that’s what made it kaboom

  274. kettle1 says:

    fire,

    yes i agree,
    but it went kabooom because it was a positive unstable reaction which will accelerate and runaway if not properly controlled. A negatively unstable reaction would have simply shut down due to a increasing temperature decreasing the rate of reaction until it became self limiting and shut down without any intervention from the operators.

    The accident was a culmination of poor design choices.

  275. ex_MendhamITE says:

    I grew up in mendham. the town has completely gone to sh;t and you could not pay me to live there.

    nothing is selling. took my parents 3yrs to sell their home and they got out pre-lehman..thank God.

    I have friends who pay 50k/yr in property tax and they can’t even go to Kings supermarket for milk with out getting harassed by the nazi-cop shop that tickets every towny for 1mph over or a cell phone dig…etc.

    The town councils of Mendham Borough or Twp, COULD NOT GIVE A RATS A$$ about the taxpayer/citizen… they raise taxes every year and piss money away like it grows on trees.

    the small biz’s in town are all suffering and sales are down. the old school middle class residents of the 1980s are nearly gone. all you have left are delusional yuppies and uber rich.

    there are no normal people left.

    another radical change is that 20yrs ago, you’d see ONE dem political sign in the entire town…there were dozens of Obama signs, as the EssixCountyFication of Morris County continues, the explosion of facist, tax and spend politics infects Mendham and westward.

    ya’ll need to wake up and get out of NJ…it is the Titanic and it is going down fast.

  276. Megan says:

    I came across your nice website on the the other day and saw a some of your earlier posts that you did previously . I just added you to my bookmarks. Keep up the great work. i will Look forward to reading more from you again.

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