Northern NJ April 2009 Home Sales

Preliminary April sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey (GSMLS) is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.

The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 500, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.


(click to enlarge)

The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.


(click to enlarge)

The third graph displays only April sales, 2001 to 2009 YOY.


(click to enlarge)

The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2009.


(click to enlarge)

The fifth graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.


(click to enlarge)

The sixth graph displays the year over year change in sales on a month by month basis.


(click to enlarge)

The last graph displays the absorption rate (not seasonally adjusted), in months:


(click to enlarge)

Bonus Graphs!

March Sales By County (log scale):


(click to enlarge)

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

320 Responses to Northern NJ April 2009 Home Sales

  1. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. groups ask Gov. Corzine to fix budget woes by taxing rich residents more

    A coalition of labor unions, environmental groups and other liberal organizations is asking Gov. Jon Corzine to fix the state’s budget problems by raising taxes on the wealthy.

    Higher taxes on businesses and those making $300,000 or more a year could generate $437 million in new revenue, according to the Better Choices for New Jersey coalition.

    Steeper registration fees for the owners of SUVs and other heavy gas-guzzling vehicles would bring in another $80 million, the coalition members said at a Statehouse news conference today.

    Corzine is expected to announce his remedies Thursday to fix a state budget that has been rocked by revenue losses brought on by the recession.

  2. syncmaster says:

    Wow that big bulge in inventory from 2006 is still out there, we’re barely below 0%.

    Oh and WTH is with Warren County?

  3. sastry says:

    Scribe… previous thread on pot tax.

    Better for it to be legal and taxed, instead of staying illegal with too many tragic side effects. There are lot more things that can be regulated like p0rstitution, credit default swaps, etc.

    S

  4. Shore Guy says:

    Hiigher taxes on businesses and those making $300,000 or more a year could generate $437 million in new revenue”

    Sure, let’s provide more incentive for successful people (the ones most likely to create jobs for others) to leave the state.

  5. scribe says:

    Shore,

    With the US government raising taxes on “the rich,” I think it’s suicidal for NY and NJ to do the same.

    The cost of living is so much cheaper down south and out west. So many other spots that are better for business/living.

  6. kettle1 says:

    City Federal Condominium Auction Ends Abruptly Due To Low Bids.

    The owner of the City Federal condo tower abruptly halted an absolute auction of 20 units in the building after just 11 sold, saying the bids were too low.

    Condos that had been on the market for $239,000 to $935,000 ended up selling for $80,000 to $320,000.

    Atlanta-based Synergy Realty Services LLC exercised its right to end the auction at any time, even before the 20 condos National Auction Group had advertised it would be selling. A two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo on the 16th floor selling for $80,000 proved to be the last straw.

    http://blog.al.com/businessnews/2009/05/city_federal_auction_end_abrup.html

  7. scribe says:

    sastry,

    During the 70’s, pot was basically de-criminalized. You could walk down the street with a jay, and no one thought anything of it.

    The problem with legalization – the states will first of all promote it – bring it back – then try to over-tax it – then try to regulate it when it gets out of hand, which will result in it getting more out of hand …

    It will be very similar to the tobacco mess ….

  8. NJGator says:

    Providence Mayor Wants to Tax College Students

    By ERIC TUCKER, Associated Press Writer Eric Tucker, Associated Press Writer – 1 hr 20 mins ago
    PROVIDENCE, R.I. – The mayor of Providence wants to slap a $150-per-semester tax on the 25,000 full-time students at Brown University and three other private colleges in the city, saying they use resources and should help ease the burden on struggling taxpayers.

    Mayor David Cicilline (sis-ah-LEEN-ee) said the fee would raise between $6 million and $8 million a year for the city, which is facing a $17 million deficit.

    If enacted, it would apparently be the first time a U.S. city has directly taxed students just for being enrolled.

    The proposal is still in its early stages. But it has riled some students, who say it would unfairly saddle them with the city’s financial woes and overlook their volunteer work and other contributions, including money spent in restaurants, bars and stores.

    “We want to support the city as best we can, but financially is not really what we can afford to give,” said Heather Lee, president of the Brown Graduate Student Council. “We’re more able to provide labor, we’re more able to apply the things that we’re learning in the classroom, than we are to write a $300 check.”

    Cities often look for revenue from universities to compensate for their tax-exempt status, and many schools already make voluntary payments to local governments. Providence’s four private schools — Brown, Providence College, Johnson & Wales University and the Rhode Island School of Design — agreed in 2003 to pay the city nearly $50 million over 20 years.

    The idea of a student head tax has been floated before in other cities, generally to start discussions about collecting money from universities in lieu of taxes.

    But Tony Pals, spokesman for the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, said he knows of no city that charges students a direct fee.

    “The bottom line is, a tax like this has never gone into effect,” Pals said. “The timing is also unfortunate, given the significant amount of budget-cutting that institutions have had to go through because of the recession.”

    The four schools generate more than $1 billion a year in economic activity, said Daniel Egan, president of the Association of Independent Colleges and Universities of Rhode Island. They employ nearly 9,000 people in a city of roughly 172,000.

    “We think the indirect and direct benefit of students within the community would outweigh any costs,” Egan said.

    Cicilline’s office said there is no study showing how much students cost Providence for the use of police and fire protection and other services. The city points out that the private schools’ property, valued at more than $1.7 billion, is tax-exempt.

    Many college students are already involved in tutoring, arts education and mentoring for public school students. Providence College, for instance, offers student volunteers to staff after-school programs, and Brown is raising money for a $10 million endowment to help the city school system.

    Even so, Cicilline said everyone should be expected to help the city through this economic crisis. He said he wants students to have a vested interest in their city instead of seeing themselves as visitors just passing through.

    “It’s really about a shared commitment to the well-being of your community that you’re a part of,” the mayor said. “Everyone should be doing their part and coming to the table.”

    Students at Rhode Island College, a state school in the city, and the Providence campus of the University of Rhode Island would be exempt.

    A city head tax on students would need approval from both the City Council and state lawmakers. However, a similar measure failed in the state Legislature in 2005, and Rhode Island’s colleges are likely to fight this proposal, too.

    Josephine Nash, a Brown junior from New York City, said the idea seems reasonable, provided it doesn’t overly burden students on financial aid. “I do spend the majority of my year here, and I do use the services of the city,” she said.

    But Susette Holman, a Johnson & Wales freshman also from New York, said her mother works seven days a week, sometimes 14 hours a day, to put her through school. “I have three sisters at home, so how’s she going to be able to provide an extra tuition fee?” she asked.

    University administrators also object, saying students and their families spend years saving for college and shouldn’t have to bear more costs. Tuition at Brown costs nearly $40,000 a year, with about 40 percent of undergraduates receiving financial aid.

    “Given at least the rhetoric of trying to retain students, be a place that’s attractive to students and young people shortly after college, it just seemed counterintuitive to at least the students I talked to,” said Richard Spies, Brown’s executive vice president for planning.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090513/ap_on_re_us/us_taxing_college_students

  9. Happy Camper says:

    Donald Rumsfeld

    December 2, 2002
    Donald Rumsfeld signs off on a memo from the Defense Department’s legal counsel, Jim Haynes, permitting the use of aggressive interrogation techniques at Guantánamo, including stress positions, isolation, and sleep deprivation. Rumsfeld writes on the memo, “I stand for 8–10 hours a day. Why is standing limited to 4 hours?” The memo is eventually rescinded, after strenuous objections from the general counsel of the Navy, Alberto Mora, among others, but policies and practices continue to be influenced by the philosophy outlined in the earlier Bybee-Yoo “torture memo.”

    Alberto Mora, navy general counsel:
    When I saw the [Haynes] memorandum, I thought this was all a mistake. My assumption going into my first meeting with Haynes was that once these mistakes were pointed out the authorization would be instantaneously reversed. So I had a meeting with Jim, in which I indicated that I felt the document authorized abusive treatment that included torture. Jim’s instantaneous response was that, no, it didn’t. I asked him to think carefully about this, and I took him through the analysis that this could be torture, that it would necessarily have legal repercussions, including to the military-commission process, and could also engender liability for all individuals associated with this process.

  10. sas says:

    “Perhaps sas can elaborate here because thats all i got”

    I can elaborate alot. ye gotta remind me later.

    right now, one of my grandbabies just spit up on me.

    so, i will get back to you.

    I love kids.
    hard to believe a guy with a history like me, can be so soft.

    SAS

  11. Clotpoll says:

    Same as it ever was:

    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)– “The head of American International Group Inc. (AIG) told U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday that he is concerned about potential problems with the commercial real-estate market and the company’s CRE portfolio.”

    Hey Stu, I think we’ve got some exciting times ahead.

  12. Stu says:

    Clot:

    Exciting this time around will be breaking even on my trade.

  13. james says:

    Well…Well….Well… The news just keeps getting better. If anyone here thinks “Obama care” wont be the final nail in the American coffin think again. How on earth does O think he can expand Medicare to potentially 100 million people when the existing system for 65 and older is insolvent by 2016? Obama might get his universal healthcare but remember one thing. Bring a lot of body bags.

  14. kettle1 says:

    james,

    easy! you must ration care and use a utility assessment to determine who gets what procedure.

    You nip a large chunk of elder care in the bud right there and can significantly drop costs.

    Of course if you have the money to pay for the procedure yourself, then i am sure you could find a doctor to help you with whatever you like

  15. james says:

    Exactly Kettle, you have nailed it. Adventure capitalists will be investing in the private hospital. A small but elite group of institutions and practitioners that will provide what the paying public demands. The absolute best in healthcare despite the cost.

    If you think this is a fantasy think again. Plans are already in the works.

  16. chicagofinance says:

    dudes: A bad sign when betting and being reckless is having a peer group that provides comfort through relativism and a false sense of normalcy. I am in support of your well considered decisions, but I am uncomfortable watching you guys feed off each other.

    Please make a lot of money. I don’t need more sh!t stories. Please don’t throw the 7 with all the chips on the table.

  17. afe says:

    This chart reminds me of something – Went to an open house a couple of weekends ago. I am not going to be able to give you an accurate visual of this but I will try.

    So as we are leaving, the realtor starts with – “you should buy now, interest have gone down” (As she gestures a declining slope on her make-believe graph) and then she continues, “but rates are gonna…..”(her voice trails…as her hand makes this increasing slope gesture). It was deep man, real deep. I left speechless.

    I wish I could have countered with my own hand gestures using this graph as a guide.

    “Ya know, houses were selling up here (hold hand at eye level) and with prices being sticky and government interference, and sellers being stubborn and realtors being clueless about how to price properties, they are you know selling …..” (voice trails off…hand at groin level)!

  18. afe says:

    that’s interest RATES

  19. kettle1 says:

    James,

    growth industry for medical care in mexico and india at cut rate prices!!!

    its already underway

  20. james says:

    True, but the follow up care is in the US. When you get your garden variety of surgical complications from East Asia or Mexico it probably will be too late or too costly to help you.

  21. Firestormik says:

    kettle1:
    Exactly. A visiting nurse here following doctor’s instructions from overseas.

  22. kettle1 says:

    Fire, James

    dont forget about telesurgery.

    With current robotic systems being rolled out, a doctor in india or mexico could technically perform a surgery in the US in a “chartered” OR, or vice versa.

    James,

    I have also read that some US doctors are starting to move practices to foreign countries where they can practice at a lower cost and a higher profit margin.

    For example i have heard of a few different indian clinics that advertise they are staffed by US doctors. How hard would it be for some enterprising US doctors to setup shop right across the US mexico border?

    It also happens that india has some of the best heart surgeons

  23. Revelations says:

    #16 afe,

    And what does she think will happen to prices when those interest rates go up as she predicts?

    Another brick on the camel’s back.

  24. james says:

    Kettle, its a different way of life to practice medicine overseas. If you are profitable you are hunted. So you essentially trade profit for safety. Not sure that family men would want to take that bet, however, some would.

    Dubai is offering 10k a week to do specific procedures that are in need. The opportunity is there for those not tied down.

  25. Firestormik says:

    kettle1:
    I don’t think so about the remote surgery. Don’t forget about the round-trip packet delay and possible Internet outage, which will screw up the process. Not going to happen

  26. kettle1 says:

    Rev

    “The greatest failing of humanity is its failure to understand the exponential function”

  27. kettle1 says:

    Fire

    we will see, a lot of money has gone into developing these systems and the US military is very interested and has been funding development.

    I cannot address your specific points, as i am not an IT guy, maybe someone else here can.

  28. Revelations says:

    Re #1,
    “fix the state’s budget problems by raising taxes on the wealthy.”

    NJ is the proverbial snake that devours its own tail.

  29. james says:

    I have seen the Da Vinci robotic surgery system. It is a 1 million dollar coat hanger. No one uses it.

  30. afe says:

    Revelations #22 & Ket #25 – AMEN!

  31. Revelations says:

    kettle1, :D

  32. cobbler says:

    That the overall healthcare expense is growing like weeds as a share of GDP (and shoul go yet higher this year since GDP shrinks in a meaningful way, and medical expense only a little bit – fewer cosmetic dentistry, etc.) does not come from more doctors, or nurses, or hospital beds – we have about the same number as 20 years ago; it comes from the massive amount of technology that had been purchased in these 20 years, and a number of people that handle it. As a society we like technology and want more and more of it – the same as with flat screen TVs and McMansions – as long as we can have someone else pay. Since the technology continues to develop, at some point if we don’t put a limit it will simply eat us out of house and home. So, the question is who do you like to empower to put a limit – your employer (who refuses to pay more than certain amount for your medical coverage, so the coverage gets skinnier, your co-pay increases and low-paid employees stop being able to afford it), insurance company (which competes for your employers’s business, and from 3 uses of cash – to pay providers, to pay their staff, and to get profit – is only interested in the 3rd), or the government that has a budget. My feel is that if they collect as tax the amounts currently spent on buying private insurance, they likely will be able to provide coverage to all including the currently uninsured. At that, the winners will be the companies that now have “rich” coverage (and state/municipal governments too, btw – as their employee and retiree healthcare obligations will be gone), and losers – small businesses not giving benefits now. The ways to make coverage cheaper are basically service limits (no bypasses and $70K/yr cancer medicines for 90-yr old Alzheimer patients, etc.), reduction in paperwork (in the dermatologists’ office I visited a week ago there are 2 docs, 1 nurse, and 6 people dealing with office work), reduction in facilities (the same office had probably 12 rooms total and at least 4,000 sq.ft footage that had to be rented, heated/AC’d, cleaned, etc.), and reduction in defensive medicine via indemnification for most malpractice.

  33. xmonger says:

    re 1: “A coalition of labor unions, environmental groups and other liberal organizations is asking Gov. Jon Corzine to fix the state’s budget problems by raising taxes on the wealthy.”

    Brilliant! I see Texas in the future for the xmonger clan if the parasites keep at it.

  34. Revelations says:
  35. kettle1 says:

    COb, Fire

    My solution to healthcare? Non-profit.

    If you make taking care of sick people a for profit activity you will always end up with a corporation maximizing cost while minimizing service. That is the entire purpose of a corporation, to maximize profits. In the case of healthcare that means that the corporations are maximizing costs while minimizing services.

    Treat healthcare as a non-profit, something like a credit union model, where the customers are also the shareholders. The entire purpose of the business at that point becomes to maximize service for the shareholder (i.e. patient) while minimizing unnecessary costs.

  36. Revelations says:

    Sorry, I should have summarized for those not interested in following every link.

    Basically, to save money and increase efficiancy, have more nurse practitioners and other health professionals handle more basic care needs, and reserve doctors only for the more complex work.

  37. cobbler says:

    kettle [34]
    Horizon BCBS of NJ is a non-profit. It s.ucks as much or more than Cigna or other for-profit insurers. You can’t get meaningful savings unless you have a right to say NO.

  38. kettle1 says:

    Rev,

    welcome to the commoditization of medicine. Bound to happen, just like the attorneys and engineers, etc.

    The nurse clinic sounds like a good idea to me, but one problem is that such a system would reduce the compensation that doctors see in the end. That is a problem if you still expect a doctor to pay hundreds of thousands of $ for college then med school.

    Not that a doctor has a right to a high salary, but the pay must be sufficient to justify the expense of obtaining the requisite knowledge and training

  39. kettle1 says:

    cobbler,

    the problem is that BCBS is essentially a non profit partner to the corporations, not the individuals. That is why i specifically mentioned credit unions as an example.

    in the case of BCBS the participating corporation is essentially the shareholder partner, not the employee using the healthcare

  40. Revelations says:

    So based on “inventory pace”, inventory has been shrinking (YOY), right?
    This makes sense as I haven’t seen as many new listings as I was expecting to see this spring. I guess folks are holding off listing their home if they can help it. I suppose this is a rational response, but I wonder how many homeowners are waiting expectantly for “the turn-around” before giving the nod to their list agent?

    They may be waiting a long time.

  41. Revelations says:

    37 ket, Good points.

  42. kettle1 says:

    Rev 39,

    tell the sellers you will stop back by in 2018.

  43. kettle1 says:

    how appropriate!

    Taylor Says Fed May Not Have Much Time Before Rate Rise Needed

    The Federal Reserve may soon need to raise interest rates, said John Taylor, the former Treasury official who devised the “Taylor Rule,” a formula for rate- setting based on the outlook for inflation and growth. “My calculation implies we may not have as much time before the Fed has to remove excess reserves and raise the rate,” Taylor, a Treasury undersecretary under President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2005, said yesterday at an Atlanta Fed conference in Jekyll Island, Georgia

  44. Firestormik says:

    kettle: Good idea in theory, but what about the implementation? IMHO it’s going to be close to the universal healthcare

  45. kettle1 says:

    Fire,

    I dont have a problem with the general concept of universal healthcare.

    at this point almost any other system would be better then what we have now

  46. Firestormik says:

    43: Let’s hope for that.

  47. Firestormik says:

    kettle:
    It might not be better in terms of speed of service, comparing to the current situation if you are insured, but in terms of the efficiency I agree 100%

  48. kettle1 says:

    fire,

    speed and efficiency are usually trade offs. you get one or the other, rarely both

  49. Firestormik says:

    kettle, well said

  50. Sastry says:

    Ket #34… you turning into a pinko librul commie?

    S

  51. Sastry says:

    Ket #37… about med students… heard from a friend that the curriculum these days is shifting towards “web-based” (lectures on ipods to boot!) and not much on teacher-student interaction. All in the name of reducing costs. I feel a bad vibe about it.

    The health care mess… If there are too many doctors, the quality will fall (in India, it is easy to find a doctor that will charge very little money, but he/she could be totally clueless — they also have medicine degrees in about 5 yrs after high school to boot).

    Best advice was from Dubya: don’t get sick!

    S

  52. sas says:

    well blokes, I will be signing off for awhile. About 1-2 months, hopefully just 1.

    I will be travelling overseas.
    Japan, swinging over to Mumbai & Nasik out in the Maharashtra, then double down to a not so friendly location in the middle east.

    all buisness.
    hopefully, all goes well. i.e I don’t end up 6 ft under :) he he.

    In Japan, I’m finishing off my last project for a pharma company in NJ.
    as for the others, i will leave that to ye imagination.

    take care all.
    chin up

    talk to you in due time,
    SAS

  53. grim says:

    From the APP:

    20,033 area homeowners appeal taxes

    For months, Kenny Vu played phone tag with real estate appraisers, squinted at charts listing property valuations for his neighborhood and pounded figures into his calculator before composing spreadsheets.

    Believing Middletown overvalued his property when it conducted a revaluation in 2008, the computer software tester said he had no choice but to file an appeal this year with the Monmouth County Board of Taxation.

    “It’s outrageous,” said Vu, 66, who notes that the sales used to set his property’s value occurred at the height of this decade’s real estate boom. “It would be an extreme hardship for me to pay twice as much in taxes.”

    Vu filed one of the 20,000 tax appeals in Monmouth and Ocean counties this year, a 230 percent increase from 2008, when only 6,067 were filed, county officials said.

    A slumping economy and a slew of revaluations and reassessments are a couple of the likely reasons so many property owners decided to challenge their valuations, said L. Ozzie Vituscka, the tax administrator in Ocean County, which received about 14,000 appeals, a record.

    “I’ve been here a long time, and I’ve never seen anything like this,” Vituscka said. “I think a lot of people are looking at what they’re going to pay in taxes and figure it’s worth a try.”

  54. Clotpoll says:

    james (14)-

    What is an “adventure capitalist”?

  55. Shore Guy says:

    Healthcare system? System? System implies a rationality and thought in its design. We may have the best technology, but there is no system — just a jumble of pieces duct-taped together.

  56. Shore Guy says:

    delete the “a.” So much for editing while at a traffic light.

  57. Cindy says:

    (55) Sas – Have a safe trip. I had a posting for you this AM.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8029494.stm

    “BBC – Stanford drug informer role claim”

    “Evidence has emerged that the Texan who bankrolled English cricket may have been a US government informer.”

  58. Stu says:

    ChiFi(15):

    Then we will all go down together.

  59. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Informer, licky boom-boom down!

  60. Cindy says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/14/business/14regs.html?ref=business

    Sean – Here’s one for you, too.

    “Obama Urges Rules on Investment Tied to Crisis” NYT

    “In its first detailed effort to overhaul financial regulation, the Obama Administration on Wednesday sought new authority over the complex financial instruments, known as derivatives, that were a major cause of the financial crisis and have gone largely unregulated for decades.”

    “The administration asked Congress to move quickly on legislation that would allow federal oversight of many kinds of exotic instruments, including credit default swaps, the insurance contracts that caused the near-collapse of American International Group.”

  61. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Wednesday, May 13, 2009
    FOIA Disclosure Busts Paulson, Geithner And Bair

    Posted by Tyler Durden at 7:34 PM
    Judicial Watch, which lucked out majorly on a FOIA request to the Treasury, has received several hundred pages of stunning revelations, among which are that Hank Paulson essentially used the same tactics that he used on Ken Lewis on a group of nine bankers at the October 13 meeting which apportioned government investments to the various “critical” banking institutions. The major disclosure was captured in a memo called CEO Talking Points, which delineates the continuous use of strongarming tactics by not just Paulson, but by Tim Geithner, and Sheila Bair, who were also present at the meetings. According to one of the Talking Points:

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/foia-disclosure-busts-paulson-geithner.html

  62. confused in nj says:

    Has anyone ever had a worth while experience with a Dermatologist or Neurologist? Dermatologists, especially, push creams which have little effect on your condition, be it Eczema or Psoriasis. How about a Medical Overseer who will say we have nothing worth while for your condition, save your money. Fake Medicine is Bad Medicine. Also, we don’t need Anti Depressants with side effects like Suicide, or Asthma Drugs with side effects like Asthma related Death. A big cost of Medicine today is fake treatments, in lieu of saying they don’t have a Clue.

  63. Cindy says:

    http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=92574

    Stu – Thought you would get a laugh out of this:

    There is a Ticker Forum thread titled:

    “SRS Mental Hospital Accepting New Patients” It has something like 600 posts.

    Some samples –

    “The Doc just left my room. He and my wife thought I was sleeping, close to brain dead. Terminal SRS condition with FAZ complications. He looked at my wife and just slowly shook his head, then left. Wife started to cry, but we have a wedding to pay for she mumbled, then I passed out.”

    “I’m back in, Rm. 2350. Come and see us sometime: I’m the one huddled in the corner, hugging my knees.”

    “How’s everyone in the SRS crank ward. I just thought I would stop in during visiting hours.”

    Reading what I do here, then checking out their posts – well it cracks me up.

  64. Cindy says:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

    Like you didn’t already know it:

    “California is a Complete Basket Case” from Mish

    Yes, they are asking for TARP funds.

  65. Cindy says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/14/opinion/14Roubini.html?_r=1&emc=tnt&tntemail1=y

    One for you too, BC Bob –

    Op-Ed – NYT – The Almighty Renminbi? – Nouriel Roubini

  66. BC Bob says:

    “I am in support of your well considered decisions, but I am uncomfortable watching you guys feed off each other.”

    Chi,

    Please stop the nonsense. I’m not feeding off anybody. I’ve watched this ETF go from $300 to $19 and change. I’m in at $19.77. If my stop gets elected, I’ll make close to 20% on the trade.

    If I was feeding off others I would be holding the bag right now.

  67. BC Bob says:

    “Then we will all go down together.”

    Stu,

    Then we apply to Tarp.

  68. BC Bob says:

    Cindy [60],

    Buy CME?

  69. BC Bob says:

    Cindy[65],

    The only hope for the dollar is a systemic crash. Watch the 82 level, dollar index.

  70. Cindy says:

    (68) BC

    Hey – Up $15.62 yesterday. (6%) Somebody thought that was a good idea.

    Just so you know BC, I’m reading up on these things because it fascinates me. I have no money riding on anything. Just my minute dollar cost averaging each month and my Roth money in CDs.

    Also, I have NO idea what you mean by “watch the 82 level, dollar index.”

    I do think transparent trades at an exchange to settle CDS is outstanding.

  71. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    BC relax Chi’s been all worked up since that Depeche Mode guy almost died the other day.

  72. BC Bob says:

    Cindy [70],

    Keep reading. Just worry about the return of your money not the return on your money.

  73. John says:

    CME is getting nailed by 60/40 slam on tax rates.

  74. Stu says:

    Thanks Cindy,

    Very entertaining. I like the early posts like this one:
    ————————————-
    Hello. My name is spanktron9…and…um…I’m long SRS..@30.

    Hello, Spanktron9! When did you first realize you had a problem.

    When I doubled down for the 4th time at 24.50.

  75. House Hunter says:

    a story for all of you…I heard the govt may do this, but it is real.
    A friend of my husband lives in Hamilton NJ. His neighbor was going to lose his home so they proceeded with a short sale..which most likely was low balled so it was a no go..or is it because the new “plan” let he mortgage company lower the interest rate to 1% for 5 years AND wrote off completely his second loan (home equity loan) I had printed out some materials on this “new plan” but thought all aspects of it to be a little far fetched..guess I was wrong. Seems the govt is providing incentives to the banks to do this. what happens in 5 years? what a bunch of bullsh*t

  76. grim says:

    Jobless claims up 32,000 to 637,000.

    Those green shoots ain’t got roots.

  77. Stu says:

    Almost forgot to plug Grim’s excellent charts. It sure looks like the pace downwards in sales is accelerating still. April looks absolutely horrible. All we need is one more market leg down and the panic selling that has inflicted the hardest hit areas should appear in our area. I’m really thinking this fall will be the timeframe for it. More and more people struggling on the local level and the precarious state of our government budgets both local and state should really provide NJ residents with a ‘real’ stress test shortly!

  78. grim says:

    In addition, I believe last week was revised upwards by 4k.

  79. Stu says:

    Last weeks was that ominous 599K number so 4K, plus this weeks 32K is pretty close to 637K. Let’s not forget about all of those soon-to-be wealthy census workers either.

  80. grim says:

    Continuing claims up to 6.56 million, the 4wk moving average at 6.34 million, I believe both of these are setting new records for this cycle…

  81. Clotpoll says:

    BC (66)-

    Second that. Still no lines of potential RE clients queueing up outside my office.

    Instead, I’m on a stretch of highway so littered with For Sale and For Rent signs, they all blur into one. Also, I’m less than five minutes away from a giant mall operated by a bankrupt company…in which I suspect 30-40% of the tenants have paid no rent since October.

    My friends and neighbors are still losing their jobs at the rate of about 3 per week. BTW, those jobs and incomes will never, ever be replaced. On top of that, as jobs are lost and divisions cut, the RE they occupied goes vacant.

    Meanwhile, we have the gubmint rolling over for unions, discussing health care we can’t pay for and perparing the kill shot also known as cap-and-trade.

    Disclosure because we own/trade SRS or FAZ? Hell, we shouldn’t even be talking here. We oughta be collecting bullets, seeds and fuel and getting ready to move to higher ground.

    The tsunami is coming. 2-3 more weeks, all hell breaks loose.

    Disclaimer: what do I know; I only own a RE company.

  82. Clotpoll says:

    BC (69)-

    I think a systemic crash is now a close to 100% probability.

  83. Stu says:

    Clot: You need to work on your disclaimer :P

  84. hughesrep says:

    Those green shoots ain’t got roots

    Things planted in pure manure never develop solid roots.

  85. kettle1 says:

    house hunter 77

    in 5 years, i think there is a good chance we will be dealing with a substantially devalued dollar. depending on exactly how that works thought the economy, the note on that house may be effectively reduced by a fair amount.

    However that would be a very big gamble to stake you financial livelihood on.

    BC,

    In 5 years, think you could negotiate with a bank to pick up a home for a few ounces of shiny?

  86. John says:

    What does jobs have to do with the price of tea in china? Jobs is always last to recover. Plus making susuage is ugly. Companies have to earn there way out of this and running lean is key, they can ramp up later. Employees get expensive the longer they stick around, raises, 401K match and Pension vesting plus severance is based on years of service and medical costs rise as employees age. GM/Ford although ugly is tossing weight overboard to survive, bring in the new HS grades in 2011 to replace the old guys at a lower wage and have 40 years to worry about there pension. Now if they could only get KFC to feed their retirees every day they could get those drags to eat a bucket a chicken a day so they kick the bucket sooner.

    grim says:
    May 14, 2009 at 8:33 am
    Jobless claims up 32,000 to 637,000.

    Those green shoots ain’t got roots.

  87. Clotpoll says:

    Hunter (76)-

    That sounds like “Making Home Affordable”. There is actually an incentive in the program for servicers who can strongarm second lienholders into accepting little (or even nothing) in the workout.

    Mostly, the new wave of mortgage workout nonsense doesn’t work, because lenders consider existing “piggyback second” loans to be cash-out (even though they are not). Loans that were cash-out are not eligible.

    There are also deal-killing subordination issues, also. Those second lienholders won’t give up without a fight.

  88. kettle1 says:

    Clot,

    havent had a chance to fully explore this idea yet, but i am wondering if we see a leg down after the GM bankruptcy hits, followed by another upward movement.

    There still seems to be a lot of money on the side lines and we cant see our black X-day until a good chunk of that money gets sucked into the market.

    My thought is that GM goes bankrupt, market drops, obama throws more money into the furnace and the market “stabilizes”, everybody sighs figuring that that has to be the worst of it, some big sideline money jumps in, and then we get our black X-day and see how fast we can get to another 666 market.

    Just a thought i have played with, still seeing if it matches with TA (note i play with TA for fun, not money and have no idea what i am doing)

  89. Sean says:

    Also MBIA has an ERISA class action lawsuit against it by the employees since they were apparently forced to invest their 401k money in MBIA stock.

    No TARP for you!

  90. John says:

    I only have one monoline bond I bought cheap but that article is backward, MBIA split its business in two to screw the people who bought insurance on subprime junk to the benefit of the people who bought muni bond insurance and MNIA shareholders,bondholders and employees. They are trying to wiggle out of paying on all there subprime claims in the future that is why those banks that bought insurance on subprime junk are hopping mad. If Mbia plans works it is great for there bonds if it fails they are toast. Either way I will just sit on the bond I bought at 35 cents on a dollar and I am not buying anymore as this sounds like a coin toss.

  91. kettle1 says:

    Clot,

    1000 round lots of .223 went up for sale the other day at a distributor that i occasionally use. all lots sold out in less then 5 minutes!!!!! The guy who owns the place said that normally it would take weeks/months to sell all of that off.

    Its become like trying to get U2 (or DM) tickets from ticket master. you better queue up before hand and have speed dial ready!

  92. Hubba says:

    Whoa! Check out the months inventory……super bust.

  93. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (88)-

    The monolines are dead men walking. In fact, their corpses are beginning to stink.

    We actually got a PMI quote two days ago at close to $400/month from Ambac for a 810-FICO borrower on a conventional/conforming 30-fixed note. The borrower wanted to keep his DP at just under 20% so he could have some rainy day money.

    But at the cost of $4,800/year? Yeah, right.

    We took the guy FHA. MI premium will only be $110/month.

  94. Clotpoll says:

    John (89)-

    At the school I went to, they also taught me that companies need demand for their goods and services.

    Where is this demand, pray tell?

    “Companies have to earn there way out of this and running lean is key, they can ramp up later.”

  95. John says:

    MBIA still has an easy out left. Remember TARP banks can and will be forced to sell into PPIP by FED. MBIA can apply to buy assets in PPIP then borrow from FED with great leverage and through a third party buy back its own insured securities they are on the hook for at 100 cents on a dollar for 30 cents on a dollar and start cleaning up financials as they start knocking off liabilities. Remember PPIP is ment to absorb the blackhole of toxic assets. Also we have a new flood of recirculated TARP that is set to flow back to FED to be redistributed but this time with leverage baby.

  96. Clotpoll says:

    John (89)-

    Wouldn’t it be a more universal and lasting solution if we just reinstituted slavery?

    “Now if they could only get KFC to feed their retirees every day they could get those drags to eat a bucket a chicken a day so they kick the bucket sooner.”

  97. kettle1 says:

    John 90

    What does jobs have to do with the price of tea in china?

    the US GDP is 70% consumer spending. If 10-20% of working americans are out of a job or underemployed, and have had their credit lines cut, how exactly are they going to buy stuff for all these companies.

    No one buys stuff, then the companies start laying people off due to poor sales. Those people think stop buying stuff. Rinse and repeat….

    When your economy is credit/consumer based. you must have an increase in spending generated either through increased unemployment, increased credit lines that people are willing to use, or an increased inflationary velocity of money in the wage market to turn the market around.

    Right now the government has only 1 option. In the short term they can replace consumer spending with government spending, but that can not be done for very long.

  98. John says:

    Wow that sounds as slimey as realtors who bash re on-line and then sell homes they know are going to fall in value to people who are going to lose there life savings just so they can get 3%.

    Clotpoll says:
    May 14, 2009 at 9:03 am
    Sean (88)-

    The monolines are dead men walking. In fact, their corpses are beginning to stink.

    We actually got a PMI quote two days ago at close to $400/month from Ambac for a 810-FICO borrower on a conventional/conforming 30-fixed note. The borrower wanted to keep his DP at just under 20% so he could have some rainy day money.

    But at the cost of $4,800/year? Yeah, right.

    We took the guy FHA. MI premium will only be $110/month.

  99. John says:

    Actually indentured servitude is better. At end of their youth you kick them to curb.

    Clotpoll says:
    May 14, 2009 at 9:07 am
    John (89)-

    Wouldn’t it be a more universal and lasting solution if we just reinstituted slavery?

    “Now if they could only get KFC to feed their retirees every day they could get those drags to eat a bucket a chicken a day so they kick the bucket sooner.”

  100. Clotpoll says:

    John (98)-

    You better hope that Elizabeth Warren has had her untimely car crash before they try any of that stuff.

    I think PPIP is DOA, simply because Warren is already wagging her finger at the potential players. I also think that the assumption of TARP backflow automatically going to FedCo/TreasCo is tenuous, at best.

  101. Clotpoll says:

    John (101)-

    As intuitive as you may be about bonds, you remain an idiot.

  102. grim says:

    Clot,

    Was the FHA through your guy? I’ve got a couple of clients thinking about going that route even though they’ve got their 20.

  103. Clotpoll says:

    John, if you ever deign to step outside your rich world of fantasy, you may notice that the wheels are coming off.

  104. Clotpoll says:

    grim (105)-

    Yep. People often forget that you can certainly make a large DP and still go FHA.

    The difference in qualification standards, rate and MI make FHA worth at least a look for any conventional/conforming borrower.

  105. BklynHawk says:

    Grim- Great work on the chart! Thanks for the update. Spring sales season DOA…

  106. BklynHawk says:

    charts, not chart

  107. james says:

    The future of primary care medicine will without a doubt will be in the hands of mid level practitioners ie Physician Assistants, Nurse Practitioners, Midwives, and CRNA’s for anesthesia. Its cost effective and the outcomes/patient satisfaction data from the past 20 years demonstrates it.

    I agree that healthcare needs reform, however, it is going to require a change in what the public expects. They will have to learn to accept what they get not what they want. Healthcare reform without tort reform is a recipe for disaster. If you want to save massive amounts of money just stop the practice of defensive medicine.

  108. veto that says:

    This morning: ACME and Seatle’s Best in West Windsor, Lights out inside, big yellow signs on windows STORE CLOSED. Have to get my caffeine at the local bagel shop now, walk out smelling like fried eggs.
    I thought that affluent suburbia would be spared but its starting to look like ground zero everywhere. Not to mention there are about 48 retail re offices in that town, im sure half will close this year.

  109. grim says:

    #107 – Perfect, thanks, will be giving him a call.

    The biggest concern they’ve got is staying liquid, with a big, fat, cushion. Even if it costs a bit more each month to service.

    Liquidity is prime!

  110. PGC says:

    This should be fun to watch

    From the FT

    Global banks sue MBIA over split
    By Saskia Scholtes and Aline van Duyn in New York

    http://link.ft.com/r/KC2844/BH6F3/SG1K/4F048/ZSI14/7V/t

    Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan and 15 other large financial institutions filed suit on Wednesday against MBIA, claiming the bond insurer reduced its ability to pay policyholders by splitting its business in two.

    The suit, which includes Barclays and HSBC of the UK as well as European banks, is the second legal challenge to MBIA’s restructuring since the bond insurer in February received regulatory approval to split into two: a “good bank” business responsible for guarantees of municipal bonds and a “bad bank” that had insured structured bonds backed by mortgages and other assets.

  111. 3b says:

    #89 John;Jobs is always last to recover.

    And what eelse is exactly recovering? And even though jobs may be the last to recover, they cannot recover until we hit botoom;we have not hit bootom yet on unemployment.

  112. BC Bob says:

    JB, [112],

    I agree. In the past, I would look to put down 20-40%. Now, as little as possible.

  113. still_looking says:

    Regarding defensive medicine.

    You couldn’t fathom how much time, cost and effort is wasted because of the small group of folks who think that any bad outcome is a winning lottery ticket.

    The stories I could tell you…

    …over a scotch, but not here.

    sl

  114. BC Bob says:

    “…over a scotch, but not here.”

    SL,

    How about some green shots, or is that green shoots?

  115. Clotpoll says:

    sl (116)-

    The best defensive medicine, IMO, is a strong eugenics program.

  116. still_looking says:

    117 BC, I’m with ya.

    sl

  117. 3b says:

    Now Bernanke believes that the rebound he was talking about this year (just last week), may be stalled.

    Yes Ben those green shoots withering on the vine might be an indication of that.

  118. Cindy says:

    http://market-ticker.org/archives/1037-FLASH-Liddy-Lays-An-Egg-On-BERNANKE!.html

    Another story Elizabeth has been following – Why, exactly, did tax payers get thrown under the bus regarding the 100 cent-on-the-dollar payout to AIG counter parties when the transactions were worth much less.

    Denninger @ Market Ticker is following the CSpan hearings with yesterday’s and today’s posts.

    “Flash: Liddy Lays an Egg On Bernanke”

  119. kettle1 says:

    3b, 121

    say hello to U3 @ 20-25%. I wonder if the government will even bother reporting the stat once it breaks 15%sometime in early to mid 2010

  120. ruggles says:

    111 – but aren’t Plainsboro West Windsor schools top rated? Nothing bad ever happens in towns with great schools.

  121. House Hunter says:

    thanks for the info clot and Ket.
    I am suspect of some of the stories floating around. I hear rumblings of people getting mad about the second loans…they want their student loans forgiven if bozo next door gets his ski doo for free…also, putting all this off to another day is the scariest part of all.

  122. John says:

    LIBOR, CDS, Muni Bonds, Corporate Bonds have recovered, the banking panic is over, public is starting to realize there will be no more Lehmans. Stock market is also recoving and cash is moving from the sidelines. I rarely shop and I don’t really care about retail sales.

    3b says:
    May 14, 2009 at 9:27 am
    #89 John;Jobs is always last to recover.

    And what eelse is exactly recovering? And even though jobs may be the last to recover, they cannot recover until we hit botoom;we have not hit bootom yet on unemployment.

  123. still_looking says:

    118 Clot.

    How ’bout this? In NJ, the state provides guardianship to mentally challenged.

    We’re not talking Corky-type challenged – we’re talking nonverbal, no cognition, untestable for IQ lumps of living beings.

    They are all REQUIRED BY LAW, to NOT be DNR (do not resuscitate.)

    They come in with binders full of testing, surgeries, procedures, dental care, Pap smears — I’m talking med/dent care to an extent that I don’t even afford myself.

    Um, Guess who’s paying for this??

    I talked to one of the docs who is contracted to take care of them when they are hospitalized.

    That doc shook their head in disgust over not being able to make the sickest ones DNR. Agrees that it’s inhumane.

    This is the MILDEST of the stories.

    sl

  124. John says:

    What’s Hurting the Middle Class
    The myth of overspending obscures the real problem

    Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Warren Tyagi

    So you guys are saying that a lady who thinks women should be barefoot and pregant in the kitchen rather than working is going to tell the Fed how to run PPIP> Doubt it.

  125. BC Bob says:

    kettle [122],

    I’m actually surprised that U-6 is still reported. I agree, I smell another M3.

  126. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [1] grim,

    All the more impetus to speak with my co-investor and get on that Nompound purchase in PA.

    Tax this, NJ!

  127. Cindy says:

    John – Sean said yesterday she will probably be shown the door soon. You all are probably right. But know that her goal has been to protect the taxpayer. She makes me feel like I have a voice.

  128. John says:

    I am still laughing about elizabeth warren, a Dr. Phil wannabee is going to push Bernakee and Timmy G around? Wow maybe she can team up with Jerry Springer and tag team them. what a loser

  129. BC Bob says:

    “LIBOR, CDS, Muni Bonds, Corporate Bonds have recovered, the banking panic is over, public is starting to realize there will be no more Lehmans.”

    J,

    Relating the stock market is easy. However, the economy continues to deflate. Pick your posion.

    So we are not diving over the cliff, head first. We are simply rolling down the hill at 30 mph. Unfortunately, the destination is the same.

  130. kettle1 says:

    BC,

    they can pull the U series,

    i have enough data and enough analysis to be able to extract an approximate U series from the CPS data. I also have enough data so that i could probably detect excess monkeying with CPS and account for it.

  131. Stu says:

    FHA all the way. Wish I knew more about about in 2004. Putting money down is the biggest detriment to jingle mailing it in when prices drop another 15-30%.

  132. BC Bob says:

    Reflating.

  133. 3b says:

    #135 John: yes all those things that you have mentioned have improves to some degree, but considering where they were, anything would be better.

    But all of those items that you mention have little to no impact on most every day Americans.

    Jobs and incomes in an economy that is 70% driven by consumers is what matters. It is as simple as that.

    As far as the stock market recovery, a recovery led by retail investors is scary.

  134. kettle1 says:

    SL 128,

    you and my wife could have an interesting chat about that. She works with that population

  135. Stu says:

    “As far as the stock market recovery, a recovery led by retail investors is scary.”

    And with volume decreasing rather than increasing and with insider selling like I have never witnessed before.

  136. veto that says:

    Greenback doomers, Would you mind sharing some of your hedging strategies that you are employing in preparation for the total inhialation of our 1st world civilization? I dont buy into all the gloom foretold herein but do share in your propensity for pessimism, am also risk averse and in love with diversification. I currently hold a little of these:
    FXC – canadian dollar trust
    GLD – etf
    GXC China ETF
    UNG – Nat Gas Commod ETF
    Am i missing anything? What about canadian dollar, is it too exposed to dollar to provide any real protection? Should i look for a basket of currency ETF instead? Thanks in advance for educating me!

  137. confused in nj says:

    110.If you want to save massive amounts of money just stop the practice of defensive medicine.

    Defensive Medicine in many instances is actually Disease Creation. Their favorite ploy, when you feel well is to tell you your Cholesterol is sub optimal, and make you a revolving door patient. Then as the Side Effects pile up, add other drugs to treat them. All the while telling you that your not feeling well, now, is all in your head.

  138. kettle1 says:

    stu

    “As far as the stock market recovery, a recovery led by retail investors is scary.”

    “Märchen macht Wahnsinn”

    applies equally well to the dysfunctional eternal optimism and phobia to unpleasant news that is the social status quo

  139. John says:

    I am not looking forward to when the job market recovers, it was nice going to wild by nature last night getting a spot right away and no lines at the register and even seeing things on sale. Soon as the economy recovers I would go near a store with a ten foot pole.

  140. kettle1 says:

    Veto,

    what is your thought process behind long china?

  141. NJGator says:

    127 SL – Many years ago my mom was hospitalized in Jersey Shore Medical Center. Her “roommate” was an elderly woman named Edna who was pretty much catatonic except when she spoke to ghosts, and had absolutely no visitors except for the doctor who would show up once/day at the door, call out her name twice and then check off something on the chart and move on. I wonder how much we were paying for that.

    A few weeks after my mom arrived there was one day when family showed up with a cake and a reporter for the Asbury Park Press. Turns out Edna was turning 100 that day. Her father had been mayor of Neptune many years ago and was largely responsible for getting Rte 35 built near the town or something like that. All the family showed up for the party and the newspaper pictures. No one came back again afterwards. Edna died alone a few weeks later.

  142. still_looking says:

    138 ket,

    Probably. But we are probably on opposite sides of the fence about some things.

    sl

  143. John says:

    I actually love unpleasant news that is when I am buying. I hate good news I am usually selling or holding steady. Heck I booked a Aspen Ski Trip during Desert Storm I on Pan Am no less. I bought a BMW during Lehman Melt down heck I bought a house Christmas week 1999 while others were getting ready for Y2K. I even rented Hampton Houses summer 1988-1992 all at great prices. I love a recession!!!!! Time to put money to work.

  144. still_looking says:

    Gator 145
    Edna died alone a few weeks later.

    She was one of the luckier ones when that happened.

    Like I said, you wouldn’t believe the shit I see. My misanthropy is well earned.

    sl

  145. veto that says:

    Green Shoots — Bad for the Greenback?

    ONE OF THE IRONIES of the global financial crisis, which started in the U.S., is that it has resulted in America becoming a magnet for the world’s capital, which sent the dollar higher.

    By rights and all logic, the near-meltdown of U.S. banks should have led to a similar nosedive in the dollar. But precisely the opposite has happened.

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124164425747093117.html?ru=yahoo

  146. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [94] kettle,

    Was that Eric and the site I turned you onto that sold out of .223?

    Know if he is gonna get more? It’s the only caliber I am lacking. I have less than 100 rounds and need to bulk up.

  147. BC Bob says:

    “CME is getting nailed by 60/40 slam on tax rates.”

    J,

    Slammed upwards, up 20% in a week.

  148. Clotpoll says:

    John (128)-

    Ignore her at your own peril. She’s at least dangerous enough to have a lot of very powerful people trying hard to marginalize her.

  149. kettle1 says:

    nom,

    yes.

    I got an e-mail alert that they were in stock. I clicked on the link within about 5 minutes of getting the e-mail and they were already sold out. I e-mailed eric and he said that they cant keep it in stock.

    madness

  150. 3b says:

    #152 clot: How many people in your estimation are out there today, buying with 20% or more down?

  151. Clotpoll says:

    3b (137)-

    A recovery led by retail investors is also impossible.

    “As far as the stock market recovery, a recovery led by retail investors is scary.”

  152. John says:

    BC I know, back in Feb when I said it was time to get back into exchanges I did. I am up 70% on that. But that is just long term stuff.

    Listing of Deratives is very good still some stuff rleated to short sales. 60/40 tax treatment for options and other regulatory mumbo jumbo that is causing static. Also DE and BATS will make it interesting for NYX

  153. Clotpoll says:

    3b (154)-

    Not enough to drive the market.

  154. PGC says:

    I read somewhere (can remember so no link) that the seconds were actually in better shape. It went along the lines of the only thing they were giving up was the lien on the house. That meant that they could not come after the house, but they could still come after you.

    So after the short sale goes through, Joe SP gets a nice letter in the mail saying that the clock is still running and how does he plan to pay back this full recourse loan.

  155. Al says:

    PRODUCER PRICES * The Labor Department said the Producer Price Index climbed 0.3 percent after declining 1.2 percent in March. Food prices rose 1.5 percent in April, the biggest increase since January 2008. * Food costs rose on a record jump in egg prices, along with soaring prices for vegetables and meat. * Excluding food, the headline PPI would have increased 0.1 percent. * Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.1 percent rise in the overall index.

    Why would PPI prices raise – it is due to gas being up again?? – At least that what I would suspect…

    For producers labor costs are down, commodities are starting to raise again….

    It is a bit too early for inflation… But I think we will see another 2-3 Trillion stimulous this year – Once AIG will get hit with commercial defaults closer to october-november…

    Got Gold?

  156. veto that says:

    ket,
    thought process behind long china:

    in a word, diversity.
    I have no clue whats going to happen to them in next couple of years but i know that a populous, educated, growing country, with decent natural resources and a big army, whos citizens will work days on end for a dollar with little, if any, regulation is a decent business model, economically speaking.

  157. realestatelady says:

    afe: Realtors being “clueless” as to pricing houses? Really? In 2005 a listing comes on in Hillsborough….priced where it should have been priced. Showings started the next day at 12:00 pm. I brought my clients and was there at 11:30 am. There were already 20 other agents with THEIR buyers….waiting. The seller ultimately got $50,000 over asking price. Should the listing agent have told her seller not to take the extra $50,000???? If she did….do you think they would have listened to her? The agents don’t set the price….the buyers do….and always will….so stop blaming this on the real estate agents.

  158. BC Bob says:

    “Got Gold?”

    Al,

    Yes, digging for more.

  159. BC Bob says:

    “A recovery led by retail investors is also impossible.”

    Clot,

    Why not? Just dial up Mrs Wantanabe.

  160. Clotpoll says:

    PGC (158)-

    That whole extinguish-the-mortgage-keep-note-intact thing that some second lienholders are doing means nothing.

    How the hell can you say that an unsecured piece of debt like a second mortgage deficiency is either: a) collectible; or b) marketable?

    Some lenders (WFC and BAC come to mind) are selling deficient second notes to scuzbucket bill collectors for pennies. They are also settling them directly with the borrowers for .10/USD and less.

    All you have to do to blow out the people holding these liens is either BK or resist and wait them out. The statute of limitations for collecting is only six years.

  161. BC Bob says:

    veto [140],

    I’d love to respond. However, it’s an essay, rather than a quick answer. Maybe at a GTC.

  162. Clotpoll says:

    BC (163)-

    Sorry. I forgot the essential equation there for a moment.

    retail investor = victim

  163. Clotpoll says:

    veto (160)-

    Not when nobody wants any of the crap an economy like that generates.

    Got demand?

  164. still_looking says:

    “In 2005 a listing comes on in Hillsborough….”

    Buahaahaahaahaahaahaahaa

    ROFLMAO.

    Oh, HEY! What’s that house assessed at now in 2009????

    WOW…what a good laugh… I needed that!

    sl

  165. John says:

    Business is business, drug dealers, used car salesment, life insurance salesmen, loan sharks, door to door salesmen, realtors, extended warranty companies and subprime mortgage lenders are all just giving the customer what they want. No biggie, they would just go somewhere else to get their crack.

    realestatelady says:
    May 14, 2009 at 10:32 am
    afe: Realtors being “clueless” as to pricing houses? Really? In 2005 a listing comes on in Hillsborough….priced where it should have been priced. Showings started the next day at 12:00 pm. I brought my clients and was there at 11:30 am. There were already 20 other agents with THEIR buyers….waiting. The seller ultimately got $50,000 over asking price. Should the listing agent have told her seller not to take the extra $50,000???? If she did….do you think they would have listened to her? The agents don’t set the price….the buyers do….and always will….so stop blaming this on the real estate agents.

  166. Clotpoll says:

    relady (161)-

    I’d submit that a house that draws 20 buyers to the door on the first hour of the first day of the listing is prima facie evidence of mispricing. The subsequent bidding war and 50K over ask price was the market correcting the agent’s error.

    The only way I’d believe it wasn’t a case of mispricing would be if the agent and seller agreed to price it that way as a deliberate strategy to stimulate a bidding war.

  167. Traitor nom deplume says:

    more news on what I think will be the Mother Of All Bailouts, End of Moral Hazard, and Beginning of Federalization of Everything.

    Hospitals Ask for Tax-Exempt Debt Relief
    To Avoid Outright Federal Government Aid

    “The American Hospital Association May 11 asked Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) to include tax-exempt hospital bonds in any legislation he proposes to give temporary federal government relief to the municipal securities market.
    Frank is chairman of House Financial Services Committee.

    Many hospitals are in imminent danger of violating bond and liquidity covenants because of declines in operating margins and even non-operating income, AHA Executive Director Rick Pollack said in his letter.

    Pollack pleaded for federal debt support so that hospitals can take care of the problem on their own, without having to turn to “a major infusion of federal dollars.”

    Hospitals are among the largest users of tax-exempt financing, and have been negatively impacted by the current financial crisis, he said. “More than half our members have seen their operating margins decline precipitously due to government program payment restraint, increases in uninsured patients, and reductions in overall patient volumes.”

    Hospitals’ ability to access the capital markets for financing or to refinance existing debt has largely dried up, or is unaffordable, Pollack said. This applies particularly to guarantees, such as bond insurance and bank letters of credit.

    In 2007, hospitals employed nearly 5.3 million people, and were the second largest source of private sector jobs, he pointed out. They purchased $304 billion in goods and services from other businesses.

    As it stands now, patient care resources are being diverted to pay down current obligations at accelerated rates, he said, and funding of new capital projects to ensure the modernization of hospital facilities and equipment is being jeopardized.”

    Postscript: If taking care of our sick people is the second largest industry in the nation, then IMHO we are truly fcuked.

  168. still_looking says:

    168 is for “realestatelady” 404 oops, I mean 161

    sl

  169. Clotpoll says:

    (161)-

    I would agree with you, however, that the MARKET sets the only price that matters: the one at which at house will sell.

    The public grossly overestimates the pricing power agents hold, in any kind of market.

  170. Clotpoll says:

    plume (171)-

    In related news, the state of California has begun the process of having itself declared a hospital.

  171. 3b says:

    #161 realestatelady: While you are not to blam, totally, your profession had a hand in it, by encouraging people to bid more.

    Did you ever advise one of your clients not to pay more?

    As far as 2005, that was 4 years ago? What about now when things are radically different?

    Why do realotrs now keep taking listings that are so over priced?

    In the end I blame the buyers, and believe they bear most of the responsibility, but many in your profession are guilty of reckless cheerleading.

  172. still_looking says:

    Clot…173

    …and the lesson no one wants to accept… Mr Market always wins. Government intervention or not.

    sl

  173. Clotpoll says:

    I detect an undercurrent of “let the sick get sicker and die” attitude coming from some very unusual places these days.

  174. 3b says:

    #157 clot: And the second half of my question would be how many of those who are attempting to buy with less than 20% are actually closing?

    Are they doing PMI,or paying a higher rate?

  175. PGC says:

    #164 Clot.

    Isn’t the point of a short sale to avoid BK. Do you have any shorts that are walking away with non protected assets they can go after.

    Also if the SoL is 6 years they can wait three years for you to rebuild assets and then have three years to go after you.

    That .10/USD on the dollar sounds like a good deal. That could be like shooting fish in a barrel for some of them.

    It will be interesting to watch.

  176. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [174] clot,

    To me, this bailout is more offensive than bailing out spendthrift taxpayers that bought mcmansions and jet skis on an assistant deli department manager salary.

    Now NJ gets bailed out, and we get to stick it to rural states with little debt and lower taxes.

    I wonder how the folks in Montana or Wyoming feel about having their federal taxes increased because NJ wants to keep paying school administrators 220K per year, and allow assemblymen to double- and triple-dip on pensions.

    And, in addition to the taxes I don’t pay, my NJ bonds will benefit.

    So if I am in a relatively well off state, I am pretty steamed about this.

    FWIW, if we ever have a secessionist movement anywhere in the union, it will be because folks in Red America are tired of paying for the profligacy of those in Blue America, and decide that repudiating the federal debt now is better than getting slammed later. To me, the muni bailout hastens that sentiment. It is the equivalent of Abbott District spending on a national scale.

  177. ruggles says:

    175 – “Why do realotrs now keep taking listings that are so over priced?”

    Because listings are still the number one best way for an agent to advertise and get their name out there. Its a conversation starter and in the end doesn’t matter if they sell that house as long as they sell a house.

  178. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    my understanding was that blue states tend to fund red states. is that incorrect?

  179. Clotpoll says:

    3b (178)-

    They are closing. Slowly. But, that’s more due to banks’ procedural delaying tactics. They simply don’t have the cash and get caught short regularly now.

    PMI higher (unless you go FHA). Rates higher, for the most part.

  180. #177 – Clot – I detect an undercurrent of “let the sick get sicker and die” attitude coming from some very unusual places these days.

    I’d say it’s much more than an undercurrent. Sooner or later it will turn. Once it does the reciprocity, culturally, socially, etc. may be very ugly. I’m not sure if I want to be around for that.

    That is if we’re both talking about the same thing here.

  181. Clotpoll says:

    PGC (179)-

    Yes, you do sell short to avoid BK. And, even with second lienholders leaving notes in place post-short sale, it’s still worth it to most borrowers to take that risk of being subject to a possible aggressive attempt to collect at some point in the future.

    I really think attempts to collect on these liens is futile. I also don’t think that lenders or bill collectors really believe they can do it. They may have tax/accounting incentives to do this that we don’t even understand. I sure don’t, because I’m no accountant.

  182. 3b says:

    #183 clot: Thanks.

  183. realestatelady says:

    The point is not what the house is assessed for NOW. The point I am trying to make is that the BUYERS are the ones that created the frenzy….not the agents. That home in Hillsborough was an EXAMPLE. It came on the market $30,000 higher than the last sale in that neighborhood…and still was overbid. Did we tell our buyers not to pay inflated prices? Sure….until they went to another agent and bought a house. You can’t MAKE a buyer not buy the home the see as their DREAM HOME….and you can’t MAKE a seller take less than they are offered, because you feel they are being greedy. The definition of MARKET VALUE, as stated by USPAP is: the definition of market value provided by USPAP is:

    The most probable price that a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller each acting prudently and knowledgeably, and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby:

    1. buyer and seller are typically motivated;
    2. both parties are well informed or well advised, and acting in what they consider their best interests;
    3. a reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market;
    4. payment is made in terms of cash in United States dollars or in terms of financial arrangements comparable thereto; and
    5. the price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing.

    Now where does that say anything about real estate agents??

  184. 3b says:

    #181 ruggles; Maybe yes, maybe no. But I believe that if you consistently take listings that are way over priced, you as an agent end up with a neagative reputation, and ultimatley hurting your prospects for closing tranactions.

  185. Clotpoll says:

    traitor (180)-

    If I could move to PA and then get involved in a shooting war once PA declares war on NJ, it would be the highlight of my life.

    Admittedly, I have lived a limited life.

  186. John says:

    re 186 I sold a house for more than it was worth and the buyer got screwed. There I said it, I don’t make excuses. That is business. Don’t make excuses. Realtors made deals from 2004-2008 that screwed by buyers, nothing wrong with that realtors job is to screw the buyer.

  187. Clotpoll says:

    Is this another agent who’s got game?

    Nice #186, whoever you are.

    BTW, why aren’t you working in my office?

  188. Clotpoll says:

    Shit. I’m using this place to bird-dog agents.

    Apocalypse is nigh.

  189. Clotpoll says:

    John (189)-

    Charming, the way you confuse your ego-driven opinion for fact.

    Pardon me; I have to mingle with the hoi polloi yet again.

  190. BC Bob says:

    “The point I am trying to make is that the BUYERS are the ones that created the frenzy….not the agents.”

    Who feeds the idiots with same worthless BS?

    From your former leader; DL.

    “The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.”

    “The good news is that inventory levels are improving and housing supply will come closer to buyer demand in 2006. We expect a healthy and more balanced market next year.”

    “We are really on track for a soft landing. There are no balloons popping.”

  191. jcer says:

    Yes, Kettle you are correct the north east states and california have been paying more than their share of federal taxes. I.e receiving percentage wise less of their money back. NJ, CT, NY, and CA have been funding TX, NC,GA, etc for years. It is a side effect of higher paid citizens who pay more taxes who have no greater voting power than anyone else.

  192. John says:

    Of course it is fact. A first timer buyer who is caught up in frenzy who is told at open house by realtor bid now or lose the home and don’t worry about home inspection and I have a lawyer and mortgage broker that can push the whole thing through for you who gets top dollar for client and a quick sale did his job. The buyer is now either underwater or in a BK or a short sale right now. The buyer got screwed. The realtor did his job. A realtor is paid a commission to get top dollar, if the owner wants to sell his house at less than it is worth he can do it himself. Sheer laws of economics cause realtor transactions to be a bad deal for the buyer. Heck when I sold my last house I had a deal I could sell it myself during the listing. Fee was 4%, so a buyer can buy it through me for 550K or for 572K on the same day on the MLS. This is no different than buy a car off a used car lot, you are paying more than the car is worth there too. It is always the case. Nothing wrong with it.

  193. John says:

    The concept of suitability does not exist in RE. It is buyer beware. Guess if you were a stock broker you would be selling out of the money options on 3x ETFs on margin to 90 year old widows.

    BC Bob says:
    May 14, 2009 at 11:19 am
    “The point I am trying to make is that the BUYERS are the ones that created the frenzy….not the agents.”

  194. kettle1 says:

    Re market value

    5. the price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing.

    doesnt that eliminate about a third or so of all purchases for the last 3-5 years????

    NINJA, stated income, OptionARM, financing the down payment….. All are special and creative based on realestate trends for the last 30+ years.

  195. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [195] jcer,

    Could not have said it better. I should clarify that it is not present taxes that these folks in red states will fear (for most, their income taxes are not going up) but future defecits that they feel that they will pay for. It is not a strictly rational view either.

    Further, the tax-shift metrics are also fueled by spending: If you build a supercollider in Texas, that skews the results. If you have “tax expenditures” that benefit farmers, that skews the results. Remember also these do not affect most americans directly, and they cannot appreciate the fact that they live in a net tax gain state because they neither see nor feel any benefit from that. So your average Joe Plumber is going to see his share of the deficit rise for the reasons I stated and wonder to himself “how can I disavow that”?

    How indeed?

  196. Clotpoll says:

    Disclaimer: John works on WS, in support of a company whose investment products only go up in value.

  197. Clotpoll says:

    Seller, beware.

  198. BC Bob says:

    “Guess if you were a stock broker you would be selling out of the money options on 3x ETFs on margin to 90 year old widows.”

    J,

    No, only gold futures leveraged 18-1.

  199. BC Bob says:

    I do agree, every buyer, RE, in last few years better take a look at themselves in the mirror. Many were chasing a dream/retirement.

  200. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob says:
    May 14, 2009 at 8:00 am
    Chi,Please stop the nonsense. I’m not feeding off anybody. I’ve watched this ETF go from $300 to $19 and change. I’m in at $19.77. If my stop gets elected, I’ll make close to 20% on the trade.

    Bost: I am not worried about you.

  201. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    May 14, 2009 at 8:47 am
    BC (69)- I think a systemic crash is now a close to 100% probability.

    clot: …..

  202. 3b says:

    #203 BC Bob:Many were chasing a dream/retirement.

    And figured they would do it on the backs of the next generation, including their own children.

  203. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: stop with the facts….you will be shouted down….

    John says:
    May 14, 2009 at 9:45 am
    LIBOR, CDS, Muni Bonds, Corporate Bonds have recovered, the banking panic is over, public is starting to realize there will be no more Lehmans. Stock market is also recoving and cash is moving from the sidelines. I rarely shop and I don’t really care about retail sales.

    3b says:
    May 14, 2009 at 9:27 am
    #89 John;Jobs is always last to recover.
    And what eelse is exactly recovering? And even though jobs may be the last to recover, they cannot recover until we hit botoom;we have not hit bootom yet on unemployment.

  204. Shore Guy says:

    Anyone who has ever lived through a kitchen or bath remodel has to marvel at how much is getting done so quickly on this out-of-this-world renovation:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8050133.stm

  205. chicagofinance says:

    I disagree with you.

    BC Bob says:
    May 14, 2009 at 9:54 am
    J,Relating the stock market is easy. However, the economy continues to deflate. Pick your posion. So we are not diving over the cliff, head first. We are simply rolling down the hill at 30 mph. Unfortunately, the destination is the same.

  206. Shore Guy says:

    “the north east states and california have been paying more than their share of federal taxes. I.e receiving percentage wise less of their money back. NJ, CT, NY, and CA have been funding TX, NC,GA, etc for years.”

    The same holds true for medicade reimbursements, and medicade is a huge drain in the North. Back when the program began, the South was poor and the North was rich so the North accepted lower reimbursements than the South and northern states also tended to adopt many more “optional” programs than the southern states did.

  207. chicagofinance says:

    I agree with you only after inserting the word with caps…

    3b says:
    May 14, 2009 at 9:56 am
    #135 John: yes all those things that you have mentioned have improves to some degree, but considering where they were, anything would be better. But all of those items that you mention have little to no DIRECT impact on most every day Americans.

  208. HEHEHE says:

    “LIBOR, CDS, Muni Bonds, Corporate Bonds have recovered”

    A temporary phenomenon at best. They are all currently propped up by government money. Just as the stock market has been the past few months. Eventually they’ll cave too.

  209. grim says:

    Lots of NJ Chrysler dealerships gettin the axe…

    23 Auto Group, Butler
    Belle Mead Garage, Belle Mead
    Berlin Chrysler, Berlin
    Burke Brothers, Cape May
    Clayton Amerman, Peapack
    Coleman Auto Group, Trenton
    Coleman Chrysler-Jeep, Hightstown
    Compass Dodge, Orange
    Conti Ford, Manahawkin
    Englewood Dodge, Englewood
    Downer Motor, Elmer
    Elm Auto Sales, Kearny
    Cherry Hill Jeep, Cherry Hill
    Hamilton Chrysler, Hamilton Square
    Jeep-Eagle 17, Paramus
    Westwood Chrysler-Jeep, Westwood
    Laflam Chrysler, Runnemede
    Lenihan Jeep, Marlton
    Liccardi Motors, Green Brook
    Lahman Auto Group, Parsippany
    Mall Chrysler, Maple Shade
    Schwartz Chrysler, Shrewsbury
    Mauro Motors, Woodbridge
    Sansone Dodge, Neptune
    Stadium Auto Mall, Rutherford
    Tenafly Chrysler Jeep, Tenafly
    Walsh Dodge, Jersey City
    Wayne Dodge, Wayne
    West End, Rahway
    Wyckoff Chrysler, Wyckoff

  210. John says:

    Systemic Risk is about 100% off the table, Federal Reserve Bank as Systemic Risk Regulator with abliity to print money is key to taking risk off table, even non financial service companies who can cause interlated dependencies can cause systemic risk will be regulated.

  211. BC Bob says:

    Chi [209],

    Fantastic. Not the first, nor the last.

  212. John says:

    What does have direct impact of people? Besides Opah and fast food.

  213. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    May 14, 2009 at 10:07 am
    I actually love unpleasant news that is when I am buying. I hate good news I am usually selling or holding steady. Heck I booked a Aspen Ski Trip during Desert Storm I on Pan Am no less. I bought a BMW during Lehman Melt down heck I bought a house Christmas week 1999 while others were getting ready for Y2K. I even rented Hampton Houses summer 1988-1992 all at great prices. I love a recession!!!!! Time to put money to work.

    JJ: I stayed at the St. Regis two blocks from the White House during the Anthrax scare. Upgraded to a corner suite with bulter service and a pot of coffee delivered with some dude wearing white gloves. I paid something like $149 a night (in 2002).

  214. RU says:

    I don’t think realtors had as much to do with the mess we’re in as the banks. The banks were the one issuing “liar” loans and coming up with gimmicky mortgages. The people who bought are also to blame. Buyers should know how much they could reasonably afford and always think about the worst case scenario. Back in 2005, I was looking at buying a multi-family home b/c I feared being priced out and couldn’t afford a single family home. I went with a realtor to view some multi-families and she never pressured me to buy. When I was getting pre-approved, a mortgage broker ran my credit and offered to give me whatever I wanted. Now I was smart enough to know how much I could afford and even thought about if I could carry the cost of the total mortgage if an apartment was unoccupied for a couple of months. Needless to say, I’m glad I waited until recently to purchase. I also don’t feel sorry for people who took out huge home equity loans to feed their need to keep up with the Jones’s. I always have lived within my means and saved for the future. I don’t need to drive a Mercedes. Would I like to….hell yeah! Maybe someday when I retire.

  215. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    May 14, 2009 at 11:55 am
    The same holds true for medicade reimbursements, and medicade is a huge drain in the North.

    Shore: what flavor is medicade?

  216. House Hunter says:

    did a wuick preview of the list of dealerships/Chrysler-Jeep places in NJ gone : 29

  217. House Hunter says:

    wuick would be quick

  218. Shore Guy says:

    Now fro something totally different. It makes one wonder WHAT they are teaching in seminaries:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8049853.stm

  219. 3b says:

    #211 chgo:But all of those items that you mention have little to no DIRECT impact on most every day Americans.

    True. But most Americans do not understand no care about the indirect impact on their lives

  220. John says:

    FYI – Even I am saying WTF?

    MBI MBIA INC.
    Trade Research Add to Watch List Detailed Quote Option Chain
    Last [Tick] 6.16[ + ]
    Change 0.47
    % Change 8.26%

  221. Shore Guy says:

    “Shore: what flavor is medicade?”

    Kind of a lemon-lime thing.

    Actually, I was waiting for someone to catch that, as I had to grab a call and could not fix it.

  222. Seneca says:

    John [128]

    Can you help me read between the lines of Warren’s piece on the financial woes of the middle class? She redirects blame away from overconsumption of food, clothing and material goods and lays the blame squarely on the inflated cost to purchase a home in towns with “top” school systems.

    Two-income families (today) don’t have a stay-at-home mom to fall back on if the primary breadwinner loses his job (like many did in the 60s).

    Were you being facetious and I missed it or are you just trying to rile up readers who attended one of the Seven Sisters?

    Her solutions to the problem are debatable (making loan-to-own bank strategies illegal, school vouchers, etc.), but she never proposes that women need to remain barefoot and pregnant, as you suggested.

  223. Stu says:

    I am not in anyway attempting to create a partisan argument here, but I did get into an argument with my father and father-in-law this past mother’s day as to what caused the housing bubble. Well they were firmly entrenched in the camp that Clinton forced Fannie and Freddie to loan to those who could not afford a home. I was arguing that it is not a subprime issue so much that it was the removal of the Glass-Steigal act (Phil Gramm) that created the bloodbath. Well I was reading the latest Quinn (non-partisan) on Seeking Alpha which provided me with this interesting quote from our former fool in chief…

    “I believe owning something is a part of the American Dream, as well. I believe when somebody owns their own home, they’re realizing the American Dream. The goal is, everybody who wants to own a home has got a shot at doing so. The problem is we have what we call a homeownership gap in America. Three-quarters of Anglos own their homes, and yet less than 50 percent of African Americans and Hispanics own homes. That ownership gap signals that something might be wrong in the land of plenty. And we need to do something about it.

    We are here in Washington, D.C. to address problems. So I’ve set this goal for the country. We want 5.5 million more homeowners by 2010 — million more minority homeowners by 2010. Five-and-a-half million families by 2010 will own a home. That is our goal. It is a realistic goal. But it’s going to mean we’re going to have to work hard to achieve the goal, all of us. And by all of us, I mean not only the federal government, but the private sector, as well. And so I’ve asked Congress to fully fund an American Dream down payment fund which will help a low-income family to qualify to buy. We believe when this fund is fully funded and properly administered, which it will be under the Bush administration, that over 40,000 families a year — 40,000 families a year — will be able to realize the dream we want them to be able to realize, and that’s owning their own home.

    I want to set up a single family affordable housing tax credit to the tune of $2.4 billion over the next five years to encourage affordable single family housing in inner-city America. One of the things that the Secretary is going to do is he’s going to simplify the closing documents and all the documents that have to deal with homeownership. And I’m proud to report that Fannie Mae has heard the call and, as I understand, it’s about $440 billion over a period of time. They’ve used their influence to create that much capital available for the type of home buyer we’re talking about here. It’s in their charter; it now needs to be implemented. Freddie Mac is interested in helping. I appreciate both of those agencies providing the underpinnings of good capital.”

    President George W. Bush – June 18, 2002

    I’m sure the blame resides on both sides of the aisle as both parties are beholden to the lobbyists who finance whichever party they think has the best odds of winning.

    Personally, I no longer care either way and will probably no longer vote anyhow.

    The two part Quinn is located here and makes for some interesting reading.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/137674-suburban-housing-markets-are-unsustainable-part-1

  224. d2b says:

    Here is the Chrysler list. I’m not sure if this was posted.

    http://www.autospies.com/images/users/Agent009/Chrysler%20Closings.pdf

  225. kettle1 says:

    Stu,

    you over thought it. They needed a new bubble after the dotcom bust. housing was probably the easiest as it had substantial room for growth.

    The great part was all they had to do was finagle interest rates.

    either party would have done it. it was that or a stagnant eocnomy

  226. John says:

    Seneca single income families could not afford expensive homes and high mortgages and two cars. When women entered workplace the doubling of incomes allowed for home prices to rise as well as the dual income households to afford two good cars nice vacations etc. However, when the majority of couples became dual incomes prices rose rapidly making this now hard to do on two incomes, rather than reduce consumption and go back to junky house and one old clunker they kept right on spending. Equally worse the women libbers who pushed for equal rights in the workplace for women ended up penalizing mainly stay at home moms as they made it near impossible to stay at home, they forced them to move to a lower standard of living or re-enter work force. Now we have women working who do not want to work and for all there effort they are just threading water as prices have doubled. I guess no good deed goes unpunished, you correct one problem, inequality in the workplace and you end up creating another problem.

  227. zieba says:

    Since many jobs will not be replaced one would think that the ratio of single income families will creep up over the coming years.

    J, Kettle provided info on SIF v. DIF’s a few days ago. I think something like a third of households were single income.

  228. chicagofinance says:

    Why?

    John says:
    May 14, 2009 at 12:14 pm
    FYI – Even I am saying WTF?
    MBI MBIA INC.
    Last [Tick] 6.16[ + ]
    Change 0.47
    % Change 8.26%

  229. Stu says:

    “you over thought it. They needed a new bubble after the dotcom bust. housing was probably the easiest as it had substantial room for growth.”

    I agree that the bubble in housing was purposefully created, but do you think Wall Street would have obtained those massive profits and bonuses without the Phil Gramm deregulation? Or put another way, would the easy money that was used to inflate the housing bubble been available to FNM/FRE and others if not for the fancy leveraged products being sold by Wall Street (thanks to deregulation)?

  230. Stu says:

    Zieba,

    Quinn hits on this a bit in his latest, although he does it anecdotally.

  231. HEHEHE says:

    short covering

  232. Stu says:

    HEHEHE (235):

    tomorrow is options expiration Friday. I expect a lot of bouncing around until the close today.

  233. Stu says:

    BC Bob (236),

    What is most interesting about that Minyanville article is what is listed in the writers bio.

    “Zucchi is also currently involved in his family’s commercial real estate development and management operations.”

    Think he is feeling it at home?

  234. BC Bob says:

    Stu [238],

    He’s certainly not touting his book.

  235. 3b says:

    3237 Stu:Personally, I no longer care either way and will probably no longer vote anyhow.

    I no longer plan to vote, and have accepted that both parties are the same 2 headed beast.

    I have to tell you, I feel alot better now that I don’t give a krap anymore.

  236. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [227] stu

    Look hard enough and you will find a quote like that from every president in our lifetimes. I am pretty sure that Clinton made one, Gore made one (though not president); Reagan made one, Carter made one, and I will presume Bush 1 made one.

    For my part, I suggested it started with Clinton when he changed the tax code and (though not related), regulators started exacting “commitments” from banks to lend (and they were doing this before 1/20/00, trust me).

    As for GLB, I was in DC at the time and don’t recall dems being held hostage to vote for it (or Clinton disavowing it in a signing statement). In fact, to date, Dems are not running away from that vote, like they did on the Iraq war or the Patriot Act.

    I think we agree, it is a bipartisan problem, but W’s fault was NOT in causing it, but in not discovering and correcting the problem, and not taking the political hits for doing so. In other words, he didn’t (a) have the foresight to see where it was going, and (b) man up on the issue.

    IMHO, there are far guiltier parties than W when it comes to the housing mess. Compared to all else going on, W was little more than a spectator.

  237. Clotpoll says:

    grim (213)-

    Does this mean the end of the Stadium Auto Mall radio commercials?

  238. Clotpoll says:

    3b (223)-

    Having a priest write a book like this is no different than letting functional retards run the economy of the US.

  239. psjoe says:

    Anyone have the under contract and closed sale data for Hunterdon?
    Thanks

  240. Clotpoll says:

    3b (240)-

    Not giving a damn is the only thing keeping me sane.

    Since I no longer vote (except to vote no on school budgets), I don’t listen to politicians pandering for my vote anymore.

    I like sas’ frame of reference: think of everything in terms of warfare, as in warfare perpetrated by an individual or group, x, against individuals like you and me.

    When you look at things that way, things that never made sense suddenly make lots of sense.

  241. Clotpoll says:

    John (245)-

    Was it before or after we tag-teamed your mama?

  242. John says:

    Hey no mama jokes or I will have to donkey punch you!

    Clotpoll says:
    May 14, 2009 at 1:39 pm
    John (245)-

    Was it before or after we tag-teamed your mama?

  243. Clotpoll says:

    That is immensely disturbing.

  244. John says:

    Re 250 I know but I laughed so hard I almost cried. You want to turn away but you can’t cause it is so damm funny and disturbing and you are trying to figure out WTF was going through their minds.

  245. yome says:

    “If this thing carries on, my generation will have to work until they are 75,” the 58-year-old Rupert said. Governments are “going to have to find the capital in the markets, which will crowd out the private sector, or they’re going to have to tax the living hell out of consumers, or inflate their liabilities to oblivion. There are not too many other options.”

    http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a4X0Co5HSGYE&refer=home

  246. billblass says:

    Blaming gubmit for RE mess is just doesn’t hold much water IMO. Yes we had the CREA that many like to blame, saying that the big bad gubmit forced the weakling bank industry to lend to dirty minorities and illegal aliens, and that the homo Barney Fraud personally pushed Frankiemae/Fraudymac to BK edge, but…

    I was an appraiser working in the prestigious North Eastern NJ market. During the boom appraisal orders poured into my office like Knob Hill into Clots highball glass. None of my clients were banks that would have been covered by the CREA nor were they badgered by ACORN – they were salesmen from brokers not covered by or influence by any gubmit bogey man but motivated by commissions. No argument with that here. However the weakening of lending standards and the creation of new lending products provided many opportunities to make loans which would not have been made during previous market conditions. Add to that the innovations in financial products by investment firms (i.e. wall st)that began to provide much of the money that lenders (the companies making the funding the loans not the brokers)while generating enormous revenue from the packaging and sales of mortgage pools.
    The key here in my opinion is that the revenue generated by brokers salesmen mtg cos RE firms blinded many from the realization that the underlying boom in RE prices were illusory and the underlying assets to these loans were inflated and/or the loans themselves were doomed to non performance.
    I often wondered if a idiot like me with limited higher education could see the fallacy of the RE bubble prices and potential non performance of these loans how could not that Wall Streeter from Wharton School not have seen it either.
    Getting back to brokers – how many of us so called RE pros have done business with a loan broker shop were the salesman is also processing the loan?
    Seem like an inherent conflict of interest to me in that the originator (who will not hold the note/or be particularly caring about the long term performance of the loan) is to get the paper signed and the loan funded. He process his own loans knowing exactly what his funding bank likes to see on the package and tailors the info to fit that. With products out there like Ninja, no doc, no income verification, it made that scenario ridiculously easy.
    Now the consumer has blame too – he became expectant of easy credit and if one broker couldnt do it there was another who could. Why sweat the increasing values when you could purchase with little money down and artificially low monthly payments. And if you werent buying but wanted to refi and take some equity out were you complainng that the new sales were enabling you access to more “equity” that loan salesmen were falling over each other to give you?
    I’m not touching RE agents here – but let’s face it if you had a good money guy you could steer you clients to who could give them just about anything they wanted $$wise you could essentially set your own price if you found the “right” borrowers.

    Last but not least of all the appraisers – of which to my shame I was.
    We bent over and took it from the brokers and RE agents they were setting the price and were making appraisal reports to fit it. Put the indicated value on the order sheet and guess what? we hit it. What difference did it make if the comps were manipulated to make the number that someone would just take the top three sales from the MLS and apply it to your subject regardless of compatability. Cant hit the number on the bi level use a colonial. Maybe that POS with half dormer cape that sold for 600K had used colonials for comps who care RE only went up and covered our deceit. And as an appraiser I did it for chump change and maybe a pat on the head. The loan broker made 10K-15K (maybe more) getting that no doc loan through for funding that POS cape and RE broker 24K-36K for the sale I got $325 and pressure to lower the cost of that even though the broker never paid me out of his own pocket. Yes I am a F-ing idiot. I suppose I should have extorted dough from the sales to hit his number but I didnt.

    All I can say is that I didn’t live large and being lower socio economic class in no big thing to me or my ego so no that I’m out of business I’m not selling my sport memorabilia collection or boat ,or McMansion.

    Just saying the big bad gubmit is bad, but regular civilians had the big hand in this debacle.

  247. 3b says:

    #246 clot: I too plan to Vote no on all schoold budgets going forward, just on princcipal.

    Everything else who cares. Take care of you and yours, that is all we can do, and that is all that matters.

  248. nomdeguerre says:

    Our dear leader Dubya was just spectator to a lot of things…

  249. grim says:

    #253 – Post of the day

    I should put that up on the main page.

  250. NJGator says:

    Clot 246 – Move to Montclair and you will never have to vote period. You get no vote on school budgets.

  251. Clotpoll says:

    My son, how long has it been since your last confession…

  252. Stu says:

    I like his moniker. BillBlass

  253. Clotpoll says:

    Gator (257)-

    If I lived in Montclair, I’d have long ago left or shot the place up.

  254. Stu says:

    Clotpoll:

    We do have a lot of great restaurants. After that it’s pretty much all of those wonderful things that come with diversity. High taxes, crime, lower test scores, no privitization.

  255. Firestormik says:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/companyNewsMolt/idUKTRE54D4IL20090514
    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Longtime technical analyst Robert Prechter, who forecast the 1987 stock market crash, predicted this week that U.S. equities may plunge to half their lows hit in March as a deflationary depression bites.

    Oil and U.S. Treasury bonds are also locked in long term bear markets, while corporate bond prices will plunge precipitously by next year as broad economy, banking system and company earnings sustain more damage from a financial crisis that’s akin to the Great Depression, he said.

    The U.S. S&P 500 stock index’s .SPX rebound by nearly 40 percent since it sagged to a 12-year closing low of 676 points on March 9 is not sustainable, Prechter said in an interview with Reuters

  256. BC Bob says:

    “One of Ireland’s top bankers was pelted with eggs on Wednesday as hundreds of angry shareholders attended a meeting.”

    “Pensioner Gary Keogh said he felt compelled to throw the eggs after Mr Gleeson tried to speak over another shareholder.”

    “The whole board should be replaced by Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck,” he added.

    “If we didn’t live in a tolerant society, the chairman and the rest of the board would be hanging by their necks with piano wire out on the road.”

    http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/8047657.stm

  257. grim says:

    #257 – Gat. While not a resident, I do take advantage of the Monday night v-ball at the high school. I suppose I should thank you for funding me.

  258. BC Bob says:

    JB,

    263 in mod. Hey, he didn’t toss his shoes.

  259. billblass says:

    Clot,

    I think just about thirty minutes ago…

    One more thing – An appraiser ideally gives the market value of RE without bias so that the funder or investor of the loan can fairly assess the risk. When an appraiser is working for an broker originator, whose main motivation is getting the loan funded and not the loans performance, he tends to tailor his values to his needs or look for another line of work.

    95% of my orders came from broker originators not banks. I would imagine in a time when most of the loan originations were made at banks that actually held the notes, that an accurate appraisal of the underlying asset was imperative, just as the financial condition of the borrower and his ability to repay the loan was (remember having to submit tax returns, pay stubs, letters from employers).

    We (I) became a tool of this flaw and conflict of interest of these originations. The appraiser gave the whiff of legitimacy to these bogus loan packages.

  260. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [261] stu

    We had all those things in Philly too, but at least we got to shoot back.

  261. zieba says:

    Stu,
    Would you like some green shoots to go with that?

  262. Sean says:

    re: #269 – Grim – is your nickname Wooderson? You should have stopped cruising the high school for chicks by the time you were 25.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo4kDrWBa6c

  263. Traitor nom deplume says:

    grim, 276 in mod. We really have to do something about the filter.

  264. Stu says:

    “We really have to do something about the filter.”

    Perhaps you need to have your mouth washed out with soap young man.

  265. John says:

    And this is for you guys all pro SRS and bashing MBI yesterday. Goes to show it is gambling.

    MBI 6.15 Change +0.46 +8.08%
    SRS 22.51 Change -2.05 -8.35%

  266. grim says:

    #275 – Night school dodgeball ain’t like that.

  267. 3b says:

    #268 BC Bob: And in keeping with the delfation mode here is this:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0514/breaking31.htm

  268. veto that says:

    John, looking to cash out of those citi bonds on the rally in time for the approaching shet storm.
    From your experience, what type of price should i be hitting fidelity with?… cusip 173034GV5
    Thanks,

  269. skep-tic says:

    uh, great graphs, but where are the green shoots?

  270. Shore Guy says:

    First Tru-mp, now another rich guy decides to head to Florida to avoid high taxation. It looks like the NY Governor and Legislature sure showed him:

    http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/archives/2009/05/former_governor.php

    Now if NJ would just start taxing the heck out of the successful we can drive all those pesky rich folks out on NJ to Florida where they belong.

    I wonder how long it will take this guy, and the others who flee, to find Florida organizations, schools, etc, to give money to and how long it will take before contributions to NY organizations to trail off?

  271. John says:

    Veto, call the fixed income desk and let them quote you. You just set up an email alert and when they get the bid you are emailed and you can either accept or decline. If you are just putting in the sell yourself do it with a limit price try 99 and if it rejects go to 98,5 then 98 don’t do at market.

  272. John says:

    customer it at 95.026 and they are offering at 100, big spread

  273. 3b says:

    #287 John; Fight for every 05 that you can.

  274. gary says:

    realestatelady [161],

    Hey lady, you’re a f*cking scream! LOL! You want to buy some beanie babies? I heard they’re going to be worth big bucks someday! LMAO!! You trying to make an argument on this forum is f*cking classic!! Hey, you think I should buy now or I might be priced out forever? LOL!

  275. John says:

    BTW Citi has stablized. Highest yielding one I can find is 8.1%. I am not selling mine as I don’t want to get hit with the sort term cap gains. Yours is only a 2011. Get a good quote or wait a year from date of purchase. I started buying bank bonds back in the days of Lehman so I am risking it till October when does are at one year to start to deleverage.

  276. John says:

    I agree, but if it is less than a 10K piece they hose you.

    3b says:
    May 14, 2009 at 3:39 pm
    #287 John; Fight for every 05 that you can.

  277. stan says:

    Gary. That was great, thanks

  278. John says:

    Vito I am holding Citi but debating when to dump Ford. I am out at 200% as I like that number.

    345370BY5 FORD MTR CO DEL DEB 6.62500% 10/01/2028 10,000.0000 Paid, $1,710.70d $3,239.30 Gain for a 189.36% in 90 days.

  279. Clotpoll says:

    John (291)-

    I guess death is a form of stabilization.

    And, they now have a perfect chairman of the board: the very dead Dick Parsons.

    “BTW Citi has stablized.”

  280. veto that says:

    John, Thanks buddy, doing the limit order online, no takers yet and they take an hour to think about it.

    3b: will do… thx

  281. 3b says:

    #292 John: That is why odd lots are a buy and hold item.

    Some dealers will mark a piece like that 300 basis points o rmore. Actually even anything under 100k would be treated as an odd lot.

    I never sold anything unless I could get 70% at a minimum of a comprable treasury, or perhaps a high grade corporate.

  282. gary says:

    And BTW, these charts for April are absolutely beautiful. Thank you, grim!! What a horror show! When are the sellers going to actually get the picture? It’s a f*cking blood-splattered crime scene! Spring is done! Do you hear that real estate lady from Hillsborough who sold one house four years ago?

  283. zieba says:

    Oh snap, John is now posting account stubs. Chifi must be cringing and hyperventilating.

  284. zieba says:

    the only ones that I could identify were 4 as chifi and, of couse, 10 as sas.

  285. veto that says:

    john, i hear you but i bought them thinking that fed would nationalize c and that was months ago, so i was wrong and am lucky to get my initial deposit back and 100 bucks for my troubles.
    Thanks for the advice, the limits are still outstanding but will keep trying.

  286. SS says:

    ” kettle1 says:
    May 13, 2009 at 10:59 pm

    COb, Fire

    My solution to healthcare? Non-profit.

    If you make taking care of sick people a for profit activity you will always end up with a corporation maximizing cost while minimizing service. ..

    Treat healthcare as a non-profit, something like a credit union model, where the customers are also the shareholders. The entire purpose of the business at that point becomes to maximize service for the shareholder (i.e. patient) while minimizing unnecessary costs. ”

    I haven’t read through all ~300 posts so please don’t flame me for the following…

    Yes – but you need to provide incentives to doctors in this model. I believe the English have a system where if a doctor improves the health of a patient they receive additional compensation. We need to do this coupled with:

    -Tort Reform
    -Reduced Malpractice Insurance Premiums
    -Reduced Tuition Costs
    -More focus on preventive health care

  287. BC Bob says:

    “Oh snap, John is now posting account stubs. Chifi must be cringing and hyperventilating.”

    zieb,

    Nah. Only reserved for Clot, Make, Stu and myself.

  288. sastry says:

    SS #304…


    -Tort Reform
    -Reduced Malpractice Insurance Premiums
    -Reduced Tuition Costs
    -More focus on preventive health care

    And add a license revocation in case of flagrant malpractice (like the guy that reused needles in Long Island). Preventive health care would do wonders to lowering the overall costs.

    S

    S

  289. make money says:

    This letter was sent to me by Ron Paul. Who’s gonna give this guy lonegan a chance to increase property taxes?

    Dear Friend,

    Steve Lonegan is strong advocate of free markets. I was very impressed by his record of budget restraint as Mayor of Bogota, NJ. He has been a vocal critic of runaway spending and taxpayer funded bailouts, and he understands that we must reject the nanny state and return government to its proper, restrained role. Sending Steve Lonegan to Trenton would be a tremendous victory for the people of New Jersey.

    That is why I am supporting Steve Lonegan for New Jersey Governor. Steve is fighting hard in a difficult race, and he needs your help to win. Please support Steve in any way you feel appropriate. You can visit his website, Lonegan.com, to donate, volunteer or receive more information.

    At this time when big government forces are grabbing more and more power, we must come together and unite behind principled free market leaders like Steve Lonegan. Please join me in supporting Steve in any way you can and, most importantly, please make sure you get the polls and vote for him on June 2nd.

  290. cobbler says:

    [306] sastry
    “…Preventive health care would do wonders to lowering the overall costs…”

    No, it will not. With or without preventive care people inevitably die; as long as we are willing to spend huge amounts of money and technology on keeping most everybody who is on a death bed there as long as achievable, the costs will continue to go up – as technology improves and gets more and more expensive (and you use it for a longer time a pop). Tort reform will go a long way (and not only for the malpractice, btw), but with the political class being 80% lawyers of all stripes I don’t see it feasible.

  291. SS says:

    # 306 sastry

    I agree.

    There seems to be a shared component to many of these topics – too much focus on the revenue side of the P&L & not the expense. I’m no politician (which I guess is the answer to my ensuing question), but I don’t understand why the govt, (or state authority based corps, union shops, etc) look only to increasing revenues (taxes) rather than reducing costs. Families do it, private sector corps do it, why can’t these idiots do it?

  292. John says:

    so would arsnic
    cobbler says:
    May 14, 2009 at 4:28 pm
    [306] sastry
    “…Preventive health care would do wonders to lowering the overall costs…”

  293. SS says:

    # 308 – cobbler

    How can you say that? Totally baseless comment.

    While I don’t have the numbers to prove it, I’ve got a family full of fat diabetic, hypertensive, individuals who spend a mint on reactive medicine. My mother was on that same path – my sister being a personal trainer and myself being a ball-buster got her into the gym. 80 lbs later she’s off the meds, (except synthroid – she lost her thyroid to cancer), running 5k races and feels 110% better. She stopped most of her Dr. visits as well. So the $1,000’s spent on meds & copays is out the window…cost savings?..I’d say so.

  294. cobbler says:

    [311] SS
    …In the second article about end-of-life costs, Amresh Hanchate, Ph.D., of Boston University School of Medicine, and colleagues report on an analysis of data from 158,780 Medicare beneficiaries who died in 2001. In the last six months of life, costs varied significantly by racial and ethnic background—costs for whites averaged $20,166, compared with $26,704 for blacks and $31,702 for Hispanics.

    “Although 40 percent to 60 percent of these excess differences are associated with geography, i.e., living in high–medical-expenditure areas, substantial differences remain, even after adjustment for many patient characteristics in addition to geographic variables,” the authors write. “Strikingly higher rates of use of intensive end-of-life treatments such as ICU [intensive care unit] and ventilators account for most of these residual differences.”

    “Therefore, at life’s end, minorities often receive more expensive but not necessarily life-enhancing care,” they conclude. “It is unclear how much of this was actively sought, or the extent to which racial and ethnic differences are principally driven by how choices are presented or how they are ‘heard.’ These would be fruitful questions for future research.”

    (Arch Intern Med. 2009;169[5]:480-488, 493-501. Available pre-embargo to the media at http://www.jamamedia.org.)

    Since 2001 these costs went up by at least 50%. [please note that the article is not lamenting these costs as such – which to me is THE problem, but rather studying the ethnic/racial group differences]

  295. Sean says:

    ree#311 SS – I commend you on your rehab of your mom’s health, my mother is also very heathly for her age.

    The reason why she is so healty is she had no TV growing up and most likely was not exposed to a combination of Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, Family Guy, Domino’s Pizza and Soda with HFCS.

    The average American on the other hand is a tubbo who won’t get up from the couch long enough to properly wipe their read end between viagra commercials.

    Most of them are doomed to all medical ailments related to weight gain and a sedentary lifestyle.

  296. Sean says:

    re#311 SS – I commend you on your rehab of your mom’s health, my mother is also very heathly for her age.

    The reason why she is so healthy is she had no TV growing up and most likely was not exposed to a combination of Dancing with the Stars, American Idol, Family Guy, Domino’s Pizza and Soda with HFCS.

    The average American on the other hand is a tubbo who won’t get up from the couch long enough to properly wipe their read end between viva v*i-aG*ra commercials.

    Most of them are doomed to all medical ailments related to weight gain and a sedentary lifestyle.

  297. HEHEHE says:

    PPT at work:

    Shorting These Stocks Is Now Verboten

    Posted by Tyler Durden at 4:40 PM
    For all who wonder which shares are poised for the next invisible hand lift off, I present an email distributed earlier today by CMC, which is a major spread betting provider in the UK, to its clients. If certain individuals at Morgan Stanley’s ETF and quant trading operations want to opine as to the inaneness of the current hard to borrow nature of these stocks, now is the time to speak up (oh wait, curiously Morgan Stanley itself is in the Do Not Short list… hmmm… kinda odd that, is it not?).

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/shorting-in-these-stocks-is-now.html

  298. grim says:

    New thread, up!

  299. SS says:

    End of life – fine. When it’s your time it’s your time. But I’m referring to that looong stage before end of life.

  300. afe says:

    realestatelady (163) – I am not blaming you for how bad the market is – what I am asking for is for you & your colleagues to stop with the interest rate bull*hit. The NAR needs new selling points pronto! How much pressure agents decide to exert on the sellers to price to market is their own business…unfortunately, all of the factors I outlined above have not jump-started sales including the infamous “historically low interest rates”. IT DONT MATTA!

Comments are closed.