July 2009


This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

And finally, a little weekend humor, Arrive on Vacation Leave on Probation by BT Wall, hat tip to Brian Donohue at the Star Ledger.

From Bloomberg:

Housing’s Tequila Hangover Isn’t Easily Shaken: David Reilly

A housing bust is a lot like a tequila hangover. After the most acute signs of distress have passed, it still takes a long time before things start to feel normal again.

So even if housing markets are approaching or have reached a bottom — a matter of great debate at the moment, especially given yesterday’s release of May home-price figures — history shows a rebound isn’t likely to be anywhere near as fast or furious as the meltdown it followed.

Sometimes, rebounds don’t happen at all. Not, at least, without a large dose of inflation. And that carries its own risks for the economy and investors.

To see a mirage-like rebound, look at Midland, Texas. That area is still waiting to fully pull out of a housing slump that began in the early 1980s.

Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency show that inflation-adjusted prices in the Midland area finally bottomed about late 2000. They are still about 30 percent below their peak reached in 1982, the FHFA said in a June report examining past house-price declines.

This underscores how differently housing markets often behave compared with stock markets, which can quickly bounce back from lows.

Pulling out of a housing slump can take twice as long as it took for home prices to melt down, according to the FHFA. That fact should temper some enthusiasm over recent signs that housing markets are stabilizing.

Yet “real home prices for many areas within the U.S. have not yet returned to values they approached in the 1980s,” the FHFA report said. The agency found that real, inflation-adjusted home prices can take anywhere from 10 to 20 years to recover from previous peaks.

Of course, home prices look better in Midland, throughout Texas and nationally when they aren’t adjusted for inflation. So-called nominal home prices in Texas, for example, are up 80 percent from an early 1990s trough.

In this case, inflation is a meltdown antidote. Yet it isn’t clear the U.S. can easily inflate its way out of the current housing hole.

Talk of housing bottoms almost always assumes home prices will rise. That can be a dangerous notion, as many boom-time home buyers discovered.

I was reminded of this while visiting an open house last weekend in Scotch Plains, New Jersey. The house for sale was instructive because it had been built in the late 1700s and the broker supplied a transaction history.

The first ownership change with a listed dollar amount occurred in 1870, when the two-story, clapboard farmhouse sold for $13,000. Two years later it changed hands for $12,000.

The house wasn’t sold again until 1911, fetching $7,200. That marked both a nominal, and real, loss for the sellers. Two years later, the house was foreclosed on.

In 1927, the house sold for $13,500. The next sale, in 1949, was for $19,500, marking an annualized 2 percent return.

That wasn’t bad, given that the period included the stock- market crash, the Great Depression and the World War II recovery. Things were bleaker on a real basis. The Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator shows that $13,000 in 1927 was worth an inflation-adjusted $19,040 in 1949. So, on a real basis, the sellers made just $400 over 22 years.

History is a good reminder that housing cycles are marathons, not short V-sprints.

From the Federal Reserve:

Beige Book - Second District–New York

The Second District’s economy has shown more signs of stabilizing in recent weeks, though, on balance, economic activity may still be contracting. The labor market remains exceptionally weak but with some signs of leveling off. Manufacturing sector contacts report stable conditions and are generally optimistic about the near–term outlook. Retailers indicate that sales were steady in June and early July while continuing to run well below 2008 levels. Consumer confidence was mixed but generally steady at a low level in June. Tourism activity in New York City has also been sluggish but little changed since the last report, as have been commercial real estate markets. Housing markets have shown some signs of stabilizing in northern New Jersey and upstate New York but continued to deteriorate in New York City and especially in Manhattan. Finally, bankers report a downturn in loan demand-particularly from the household sector-as well as ongoing tightening in credit standards and steady to higher delinquency rates.

Construction and Real Estate

Housing markets remained soft throughout most of the District, though there were signs of stabilization in a number of areas. Contacts in northern New Jersey indicate that the market has a somewhat more positive tone than in recent months: prices, though still down about 15 percent over the year, appear to have stabilized somewhat and volume has picked up moderately. There is still reported to be a moderate degree of new development of multi-family buildings along the Hudson waterfront, but otherwise new construction activity is described as moribund. New construction in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area was reported to be exceptionally slow in April and May but picked up in June; while the high end of the market has weakened somewhat, sales activity at the low end ($150,000 and under) has reportedly been fairly brisk, with multiple bids, sometimes above the asking price. This strength was largely attributed to the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Overall, home prices have held relatively steady in western New York State.

New York City’s market, however, has shown further signs of deteriorating, in both the sales and rental markets. In the second quarter, the median sales price for existing co-ops and condos in Manhattan reportedly fell 26 percent from a year earlier, while the number of sales transactions fell 50 percent; the inventory (number of units listed) was up 9%, though there is reported to be a substantial “shadow” inventory of new apartments-condo units that are unsold but not yet listed. Brooklyn’s and Queens’ markets have also slackened in the second quarter, with median prices of existing apartments reported to be down 15 to 17 percent from a year earlier, and the number of transactions down roughly 30 percent. The city’s rental market has also slackened further, with asking rents reported to be down 8-12 percent over the past year, and actual rents off more than 17 percent, on a per square foot basis. Also, landlords are increasingly offering concessions-free rent for one or more months–in slack neighborhoods.

The New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
* May S&P Case Shiller (Aggregate, Tiered, Condo)


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S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index

Low Tier (Under $284606) - Peaked in October 2006 and is down 24.51% from peak

Mid Tier ($284606 - $417722) - Peaked in September 2006 and is down 22.74% from peak

High Tier (Over $417722) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 16.95% from peak

Aggregate (Overall Market) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 21.00% from peak

Condo-Only Index - Peaked in February 2006 and is down 13.80% from peak

NY Metro Area Aggregate Year over Year Changes

May 08 -7.74%
Jun 08 -7.04%
Jul 08 -7.04%
Aug 08 -6.61%
Sep 08 -7.13%
Oct 08 -7.71%
Nov 08 -8.72%
Dec 08 -9.17%
Jan 09 -9.74%
Feb 09-10.33%
Mar 09 -11.80%
Apr 09 -12.45%
May 09 -12.21%

Bonus Graphs from Veto and Kettle:


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More Kettle/Veto graphs can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/mwlab5

From Calculated Risk:

Case-Shiller Prices Fall in May Seasonally Adjusted

Case-Shiller has released the Seasonally Adjusted house price index.

Prices fell slightly in May (compared to April) for the Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes.

Seasonally adjusted, prices fell in 12 of the 20 Case Shiller cities.

There is a strong seasonal pattern to house prices, and it is important to use the SA data. Unfortunately Case-Shiller did not release the SA data earlier this morning. This has lead to numerous incorrect headlines about prices increasing from April to May. That is correct, if they mention the data is Not Seasonally Adjusted.

From Marketwatch:

U.S. Case-Shiller index down 17.1% in past year
U.S. May Case-Shiller home prices up 0.5%
U.S. home prices up month to month for first time in nearly three years: Case-Shiller

From Standard and Poor’s:

Home Price Declines Continue to Abate According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through May 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that, although still negative, the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved for the fourth consecutive month in 2009.

“The pace of descent in home price values appears to be slowing” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “There is a clear inflection point in the year-over-year data, due to four consecutive months of improved rates of return, after the steep decline that began in the fall of 2005. In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 17 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual returns compared to those of April. Looking at the monthly data, 13 of the 20 metro areas reported positive returns; and the 10-City and 20-City Composites reported positive returns for the first time since the summer of 2006. To put it in perspective, these are the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months. This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing”.

“While many indicators are showing signs of life in the U.S. housing market, we should remember that on a year-over-year basis home prices are still down about 17% on average across all metro areas, so we likely do have a way to go before we see sustained home price appreciation.” Mr. Blitzer added.”

From the AP:

Index shows home prices increase from April to May

A widely watched index shows home prices posted their first monthly increase since the summer of 2006, indicating prices are finally stabilizing.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities released Tuesday rose 0.5 percent from April, but was still 17.1 percent below May a year ago.

From CNN/Money:

Home price index up for 1st time in 3 years

The value of U.S. homes grew on a monthly basis in May for the first time in nearly three years, according to 20-city index released Tuesday.

The month-over-month increase was 0.5%, according to the report from financial data company Standard & Poor’s and economists Case-Shiller. It was the first increase in the monthly index since July 2006.

On an annual basis, home prices in the 20 cities fell 17.1%, but it was the fourth straight month that the year-over-year decline lessened.

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fell 17.1% in May From Year Ago

Home values in 20 major U.S. cities fell less than forecast in May, reinforcing evidence that the market is stabilizing.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 17.1 percent from a year earlier, the smallest drop in nine months, following an 18.1 percent drop in April, the group said today in New York. The gauge rose from the prior month for the first time in almost three years.

Price declines may keep moderating as demand steadies and distressed properties account for a smaller share of transactions. Even so, rising unemployment, stagnant confidence and the loss of wealth caused in part by the drop in property values mean a rebound may be slow to take hold.

“Lower home prices and improved affordability should start to stimulate home sales somewhat during 2009 despite higher unemployment,” James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report.

Economists forecast the index would drop 17.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 32 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from declines of 17.5 percent to 18.3 percent.

Compared with a month earlier, home prices climbed 0.5 percent in May, the first gain since July 2006 and biggest since May of that year, today’s report showed. Just six of the cities showed a decline in prices from April to May.

The price figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes.

From the New York Times:

Hopeful Signs in Housing

HOMEOWNERS and sellers of New Jersey, are you sitting down? You are about to read a recent state housing-trend analysis that’s not half bad: Overall sales are up; inventory is down; and, after three years, home prices may be on the verge of halting their decline.

In June, according to Jeffrey G. Otteau, whose company issues monthly reports to the real estate industry, there was a “breakthrough”: the number of home sales exceeded that of June 2008 by 12 percent. Such a year-over-year increase has not occurred since midsummer 2007, said Mr. Otteau, the president of the Otteau Valuation Group in New Brunswick.

It does not mean that the state’s economic troubles are over, Mr. Otteau said in a recent telephone interview.

Generally, he said, home prices tend to stabilize when there is a six-month housing supply. “We are getting very close,” he said, noting that the total number of homes on the market in the 21 counties that his company monitors had sunk to about the same number as were listed in 2006, before the market fell to its knees.

In June, there were 25 towns with a four-month supply, or less, according to his company’s data. These communities are scattered across 6 counties (10 in Bergen, 6 in Essex, 3 in Middlesex, 3 in Union, and a town each in Morris, Mercer and Passaic.)

Notably lacking from that list is Hudson County. Although it had the strongest market of any county until the Wall Street crisis last fall, the area is still lagging. So far this year, it has had 28 percent fewer sales than the corresponding period in 2008.

At least its sales pace has increased each month since January. In June, the inventory was down to 11.5 months, from 19. Still, that was only at the lower prices. Among homes priced above $1 million, Hudson had a 52-month supply, most of them waterfront-area condominiums.

In all counties except Passaic, the new data showed that the sales pace is slowest for homes priced over $1 million. In Passaic, the largest inventory — a 27-month supply — was for homes priced from $600,000 to $1 million.

Statewide, there is an 18.6-month supply of homes priced from $1 million to $2.5 million, and a 35.8-month supply of homes listed at $2 million or more, these numbers show.

“In general,” Mr. Otteau said, “fewer homes are being put on the market so far this year compared to last.” In June, there were 14 percent fewer new listings than a year before. Part of the reason for that, he acknowledged, is that some people gave up hope of selling their homes in a harsh market and decided to wait. Also, builders have put up fewer new houses this year.

Hudson County had 18 percent fewer new listings. And even Monmouth County, where homes in oceanfront communities inevitably swell the listings during the summer, had 8 percent fewer new listings this year than last.

“Do these very positive housing market numbers in June mean that we suddenly don’t have an economy in trouble, and unemployment up around 10 percent?” he said. “No.”

But unemployment is a “trailing indicator” of trends, he said, and while the housing market is only one measure of what lies ahead, in New Jersey its signs bode well.

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

From Bloomberg:

Home Resales in U.S. Increased 3.6% in June, More Than Forecast

Home resales in the U.S. rose in June for a third consecutive month, spurred by tax incentives, lower borrowing costs and foreclosure-driven declines in prices.

Purchases climbed 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million, stronger than forecast and the highest level since October, the National Associiation of Realtors said today in Washington. Median prices fell 15 percent.

The gain in sales confirms Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s remarks this week that the worst housing slump in eight decades appears to be moderating. A record drop in household wealth, due in part to the plunge in property values, and mounting unemployment are among the reasons rebounds in housing and the economy are likely to be drawn out.

“The bottoming process in the housing market is under way,” Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the report. “The stabilization has been driven in part by an increase in deeply discounted foreclosed properties.”

Economists forecast existing sales would rise to a 4.84 million rate from a previously reported 4.77 million for May, according to the median of 68 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 4.7 million to 5 million.

June traditionally is one of the top sales months of the year as families prepare to move before the start of the next school term, according to the NAR. The group adjusts the figures for these seasonal variations in order to facilitate month-to- month comparisons.

Sales were down 0.2 percent compared with a year earlier.

The number of houses on the market fell 0.7 percent to 3.82 million in June, NAR said. At the current sales pace, it would take 9.4 months to sell those homes, compared with 9.8 months in May. A 7 months supply is usually consistent with stabilization in prices, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, said in a press conference. It may take until the end of this year or early 2010 before property values steady, he said.

The median price of an existing home fell to $181,800 from $215,000 a year earlier, the NAR said.

From MarketWatch:

U.S June existing home sales up 3rd straight month

Resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos rose 3.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million, the highest level since last October, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Resales have risen for three straight months. The housing market appears to be healing, said Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist. The increase was higher than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to rise to 4.85 million. Inventories of unsold homes are still elevated and putting pressure on prices. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell to a 9.4 month supply at the June sales pace, down from 9.8 months in May. Yun said that inventories would have to be at a 7 month supply to get price stabilization. The median sales prices fell 15.4% in the past year to $181,800. Resale activity is concentrated in lower-priced home as a result of tax incentives, analysts said. Distressed properties accounted for 31% of sales in June.

From CNBC:

Existing Home Sales Rise for Third Straight Month

Sales of previously owned homes in the United States increased at a faster-than-expected annual pace in June, an industry survey showed Thursday, in the third straight month of gains.

The National Association of Realtors said that sales rose 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million units from a downwardly revised 4.72 million pace in May. June’s reading compared with forecasts for a 4.84 million unit annual pace.

It was the highest level of sales since October 2008.

The median sales price was $181,800 in June down 15.4 percent from $215,000 in the same month last year, but up from $174,700 in May.

From the Courier Post:

N.J. faces $10B deficit next year, report says

New Jersey faces a projected budget deficit of $8 billion in its next fiscal year, as well as a shortfall of more than $2 billion in its unemployment compensation fund, a report said Tuesday.

The independent Office of Legislative Services estimated the shortfall at the request of Senate Republicans — and GOP office-holders greeted the $10-billion figure with calls for a special legislative session to address state finances.

David Rosen, the OLS’ budget and finance officer, in April told lawmakers the state was facing the worst revenue plunge in “modern history.”

Tuesday’s estimate predicted the unemployment compensation fund’s deficit would rise from $2.2 billion to $3.5 billion over the course of fiscal year 2011.

The gloomy projection came just weeks after Corzine signed a $29 billion budget that initially faced a deficit estimated at $6 billion.

When he signed the budget, Corzine noted it was nearly $4 billion smaller than the spending plan enacted for the previous year.

From Bloomberg:

N.J. Faces $8 Billion Budget Deficit, Forecaster Says

New Jersey faces a projected deficit of $8 billion next fiscal year, even after cutting $4 billion of spending and raising taxes this year to close a budget gap, the nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services said.

The state would need $2.5 billion in fiscal 2011 to fully fund pension contributions and will lose $1.6 billion of federal stimulus money, David Rosen, the office’s chief budget analyst, said in a July 20 memo to Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean. It also faces $1.1 billion in expiring tax increases, Rosen said.

Rosen predicted a total of $8.8 billion in spending growth and revenue losses, which would be offset by an $800 million increase in collections from major taxes including those on sales, personal income and corporations. “This figure represents growth below normal growth rates, but would be the first year of growth following two years of decline,” he wrote.

The office’s projection comes about three weeks after Governor Jon Corzine signed a $29 billion budget for fiscal 2010, which began July 1. That plan trimmed spending the most in state history while raising taxes on cigarettes, wine, liquor and the wealthy to close a deficit of $8.8 billion.

NYC Comp Killer

151 East 58th St Unit 34C, One Beacon Court
(aka the Dreier Residence, aka Bloomberg Tower)
Purchased: 2007
Purchase Price: $10.4 Million

Sold: 7/21/2009
Sale Price: $8.2 Million
21% below 2007 purchase price!
(Not to mention numerous remodels, new kitchen, home automation, etc)

There were over 40 bidders and the best they could do was 21% under the purchase price?

This sets one hell of a comp.

From Bloomberg:

Marc Dreier’s Manhattan Condo Sold at Auction for $8.2 Million

Con man Marc Dreier’s luxury Manhattan condominium sold today for $8.2 million, 21 percent less than what he paid two years ago, in an auction that attracted more than 40 bidders.

The buyer at the auction at U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan declined to identify himself. A broker who attended and who declined to be identified said the purchaser was Ajit Jain, head of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s reinsurance unit. Jain didn’t return a call for comment.

The buyer of the 3,000-square-foot apartment at One Beacon Court got the apartment at a discount to the most recent comparable sale there. The last recorded sale at Beacon Court was a 3,058 square-foot unit on the 49th floor. It sold in May for $12 million, city records show. Proceeds from the transaction will be used to pay creditors in Dreier’s bankruptcy case and victims of Dreier’s fraud, said Salvatore LaMonica, trustee in the Chapter 7 bankruptcy case.

From Curbed:

Marc Dreier’s One Beacon Pad Auctioned for $8.2 Million

When it was all said and done, fresh penitentiary inmate Marc Dreier’s One Beacon Court condo (and pretty much everything in it) was scooped up at auction by an anonymous bidder for $8.2 million. Dreier reportedly paid $10.4 million for the 3,000-square-foot apartment in 2007

I think I’m more surprised that Bloomberg and BAC actually thought that the Realtors would provide an unbiased economic picture. They sell houses, it’s their job to make houses look like a good buy. When home prices were shooting skyward, they told us to ignore affordability, because we’d all be rich and giddy on equity. Now that prices are falling, and continue to fall, they focus our attention on “affordability”. Silly Bloomberg, it’s always a good time to buy.

From Bloomberg:

Realtors’ ‘Rosy’ Index Overstates Affordability

A common measure of the affordability of homes for buyers is providing a too “rosy” assessment because of tighter credit conditions, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.

“Despite the rosy appearance of affordability provided by the index,” its “relevance” has been lessened in recent years, the New York-based mortgage-bond analysts wrote.

Tougher lending standards mean that instead of coming with the average interest rates on typical loans used to calculate the index, about half of new mortgages for home purchases are going to borrowers who need to turn to debt insured by the Federal Housing Administration, they said. FHA loans allow for down payments as low as 3.5 percent, and the agency doesn’t have credit-score requirements.

Insurance premiums required on FHA loans help create financing costs on the debt more than a percentage point higher than available on conventional mortgages, according to the report, which said the FHA share of home-purchase loans has climbed from about 10 percent.

“It’s like seeking admission to a prestigious, free university,” the strategist wrote. “For those who can get in, education is cheap, but who can get in?”

From the Wall Street Journal:

Commercial Loans Failing at Rapid Pace

U.S. banks have been charging off soured commercial mortgages at the fastest pace in nearly 20 years, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal. At that rate, losses on loans used to finance offices, shopping malls, hotels, apartments and other commercial property could reach about $30 billion by the end of 2009.

The losses by regional banks on their commercial real-estate loans will be among the most watched details as thousands of banks report second-quarter results over the next two weeks. Many of the most troubled banks have heavy exposure to commercial real estate. So far, 57 banks have failed this year.

The $30 billion estimate is based on financial reports filed by more than 8,000 banks for the first quarter. The trend continued as a handful of major banks reported second-quarter results, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. Regional banks tend to have higher exposure to commercial real estate than these big financial institutions.

The commercial real-estate market, valued at about $6.7 trillion, represents 13% of the U.S.’s gross domestic product. But the recession and scarce credit are pushing more commercial developers and investors into default. Meanwhile, property values continue to decline, and banks are required to record a loss on any troubled real-estate loans where the appraised value falls below the amount owed.

Delinquencies on commercial mortgages held by banks more than doubled to about 4.3% in the second quarter from a year earlier, Foresight Analytics estimates. Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D., N.Y.), who heads the House’s Joint Economic Committee, said she is working with Treasury Department officials on a plan to try to head off rising defaults on commercial mortgages before they cascade into a crisis.

In contrast to home loans, the majority of which were made by about 10 lenders, thousands of U.S. banks, especially regional and community banks, loaded up on commercial-property debt.

Ding Dong! The Witch is Dead! The New Jersey housing market has lost its biggest set of pom-pom waving cheerleaders, and none to soon!

Sugar-coat this one all you want, but the fact of the matter is that Burdgdorff is gone, the axe was swung and those who survived were folded into the characterless Caldwell brand (not sure which fate was worse).

These folks were the self-proclaimed kings of real estate, nothing but arrogance and hubris. I’m sure many of you here are happy to see them gone. There is something inherently beautiful in the fact that a firm that vehemently denied the existence of a bubble ultimately being destroyed by it. Just desserts.

From the NYT:

The Home-Grown Advantage

TWO of the state’s largest real estate agencies — Coldwell Banker and Burgdorff ERA — are in the process of being melded into one by a parent company, NRT (which itself has a parent, Realogy, and a “grandparent,” Apollo Management). And some smaller, independent agencies are taking the move as an opportunity — to promote their smallness, and perhaps to grow bigger.

In Montclair, the week after the June 23 merger announcement, one smallish agency ran a full-page ad in the local weekly to tweak their larger rivals.

“Big is one thing,” it said under a picture of David with his slingshot, standing next to the gigantic hairy foot of Goliath. “Smart is something else. We’re something else. Rhodes Van Note & Company.”

In that community, the Burgdorff ERA branch had just been “rebranded” as a second Coldwell Banker office — less than a mile from the first. Instant rebranding took place in six other communities, too, including Short Hills and Summit. In mid-July, however, Burgdorff signs still hung on a few office buildings; even some lawn signs still hadn’t been switched.

In six additional towns, Burgdorff offices were closed outright, and agents moved to Coldwell Banker offices. NRT officials based in Parsippany described the merger as a way to cut costs and strengthen efficiency.

But for the affected agents, said Lois Schneider, a longtime Summit broker, the turmoil “has to be nightmarish.” Ms. Schneider, whose independent agency bears her name, also described the merger as “confusing for the public, at least right now.”

She said that she had built her firm’s success on “community-oriented, personal, friendly service,” handpicking a tight-knit team of agents, all women, and that she saw customers as being hungry for “local-ness” and personal attention now, more than ever.

Like both Ms. Schneider and Ms. Bigos, Mr. Baris said it pained him to see the demise of the Burgdorff brand, created by Douglas and Jean Burgdorff in Murray Hill in 1958 and sold to NRT in 1996.

The six towns that lost Burgdorff offices are Basking Ridge, Chatham, Hillsdale, Morristown, Princeton and Ridgewood.

In addition to Montclair, Short Hills and Summit, the towns in which Burgdorff branches became Coldwell branches are Cresskill, Livingston, Maplewood and Westfield.

From the Record:

Teaneck woman hopes bake sale will help forestall foreclosure

Facing foreclosure on her Teaneck home, Angela Logan is navigating a difficult time like a true PTA mom.

She’s having a bake sale.

The 55-year-old actress, comic and divorced mother of three sons has spread word among her friends and Teaneck’s arts community: Buy one of my famous apple cakes and help save my house.

Since coming up with the idea a week ago, Logan has received orders for 42 “mortgage apple cakes,” at $40 each. That’s nearly halfway toward her goal of selling 100 cakes by July 26, when an initial payment of $2,559.94 is due her lender under a federal program created to help homeowners in financial distress.

After meeting with a credit counselor, she turned to the Making Home Affordable program, established by the Obama administration to help struggling homeowners reduce their mortgage payments.

According to the terms of her modified loan, Logan has to make three payments of $2,559.94 to Bank of America, which took over Countrywide, by Oct. 1. She thinks she’ll be in good shape if she can get past the first payment.

Enter the apple cake.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Hit Record 1.5 Million in First Half

U.S. foreclosure filings hit a record in the first half, a sign that job losses and falling property prices deepened the housing recession, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

More than 1.5 million properties received a default or auction notice or were seized by banks in the six months through June, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today in a statement. That’s a 15 percent increase from the year earlier. One in 84 U.S. households received a filing.

“People are losing their jobs, seeing their income go down and are underwater on their mortgage,” Richard Green, director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, said in an interview. “It’s a toxic combination.”

From RealtyTrac:

1.9 MILLION FORECLOSURE FILINGS REPORTED ON MORE THAN 1.5 MILLION U.S. PROPERTIES IN FIRST HALF OF 2009

RealtyTrac®, the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Midyear 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 1,905,723 foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 1,528,364 U.S. properties in the first six months of 2009, a 9 percent increase in total properties from the previous six months and a nearly 15 percent increase in total properties from the first six months of 2008. The report also shows that 1.19 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 84) received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half of the year.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 336,173 U.S. properties in June, the fourth straight monthly total exceeding 300,000 and helping to boost the second quarter total to the highest quarterly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in the first quarter of 2005. Foreclosure filings were reported on 889,829 U.S. properties in the second quarter, an increase of nearly 11 percent from the previous quarter and a 20 percent increase from the second quarter of 2008.

“In spite of the industry-wide moratorium earlier this year, along with local, state and national legislative action and increased levels of loan modification activity, foreclosure activity continues to increase to record levels,” noted James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Unemployment-related foreclosures account for much of this increased activity, and the high number of borrowers who find themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes’ are now worth represent a potentially significant future risk. Stemming the tide of foreclosures is a critical component to stabilizing the housing market, so it is imperative that the lending industry and the government work in tandem to find new approaches to address this issue.”

From the WSJ:

US Foreclosures Continue Shattering Records: RealtyTrac

National foreclosure filings in the U.S. continue shattering records, propelled by mounting unemployment and continued erosion of home values.

Filings were reported on more than 336,000 properties in June, the fourth-straight month to see the total topping 300,000, according to RealtyTrac’s latest foreclosure report released Thursday. That helped boost the second-quarter’s tally by 20% from the year-earlier period, making it the highest quarterly total since the report’s first-quarter 2005 launch. When counting this year’s first half, one in every 84 homes was slapped with at least one filing, ranging from default notices to bank repossessions.

It’s just more bad news as the limping real-estate market struggles for stability. Foreclosures can command discounts as high as 60%, a drag on surrounding home prices and appraisal values. The data also show that the government’s frantic efforts to keep Americans in their homes haven’t been completely effective, and moratoria crafted to slow foreclosures seem to simply delay the pain. Even worse, with unemployment at a rate not seen in a quarter century, there’s no relief in sight.

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