LoanPerformance: Metro area prices down 11.1% in the past year

From LoanPerformance:

National HPI for September – Home Prices Down 9.8% vs 2008

National home prices, including distressed sales, declined by -7.8 percent in October 2009 compared to October 2008, according to First American CoreLogic and its LoanPerformance Home Price Index (HPI). This was an improvement over September’s year-over-year price decline of -9.5 percent.* On a month-over-month basis, however, national home prices declined by -0.7 percent in October 2009 compared to September 2009.

Including distressed transactions, the HPI has fallen -30.1 percent from its peak in April 2006. Excluding distressed properties, the national HPI has fallen -21.5 percent from the same peak.

LoanPerformance National HPI 12 Month Change: – 7.8%, Single Family Combined Series, October 2009

New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ*

Single Family Combined -11.10%
Excluding Distressed -7.74%

*Includes the following counties:
Kings County (Brooklyn), NY
Queens County, NY
New York County (Manhattan), NY
Bronx County, NY
Richmond County
Westchester County, NY
Bergen County, NJ
Hudson County, NJ
Passaic County, NJ
Rockland County, NY
Putnam County, NY

This entry was posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

392 Responses to LoanPerformance: Metro area prices down 11.1% in the past year

  1. Schumpeter says:

    One day closer to oblivion.

  2. frank says:

    “Excluding Distressed -7.74%”
    Are kidding me? where’s the recession?
    -7.8% is a rounding error. RE boom continues.

  3. Schumpeter says:

    Just met with a dude from Bernardsville. Over 600K, spread across two loans, both nine months in arrears, on a house that might draw 375K tops.

    It will be a pleasure feeding both of these banks a giant shit sandwich.

  4. Schumpeter says:

    frank (2)-

    The only error is that you didn’t die in the womb.

    “-7.8% is a rounding error.”

  5. grim says:

    Actually makes a rounding error while calling the decline a rounding error.

    Doesn’t get more frank than that.

  6. safeashouses says:

    Frank,

    This Westfield house is for you. According to trulia sold for 480k in July 06, now listed at 400k.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/1091517151-927-Ripley-Ave-Westfield-NJ-07090

  7. safeashouses says:

    Frank,

    Here’s another hot Westfield house for you. Started at 449k in June, now down to 350k ask.

  8. 3b says:

    frank’s mind is suffering a recession.

  9. grim says:

    3b says:
    December 21, 2009 at 9:22 am

    grim: Can you please get me an address for mls #2951880. Thanks

    42 Lincoln

  10. safeashouses says:

    Here’s one in Basking Ridge that according to trulia is listed for 25k (6% or so) above it’s 2002 sales price. And that’s after renovations and improvements.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/1067015128-112-Galloping-Hill-Rd-Basking-Ridge-NJ-07920

  11. grim says:

    Purchased for $254,900 in 2001.

    Check out this mortgage refi history. Sucked the teet of the subprime goddess.

    Mortgage $256,000 7/12/2002 7/12/2002 COLDWELL BANKER MTG
    11539 00013
    Mortgage $301,500 7/3/2003 7/3/2003 GUARDIAN LN CO/MASSAPEQUA
    12619 00810
    Mortgage $347,700 7/12/2004 7/12/2004 OPTION ONE MTG CORP
    13654 00746
    Mortgage $43,443 10/3/2005 10/3/2005 CENTEX HM EQUITY CO LLC
    14948 00246
    Mortgage $400,000 6/13/2006 6/13/2006 EQUIFIRST CORP
    16017 00095

    My guess is the $43k is a second, $400k is primary. The prior are all discharged. $443k debt on a $250k purchase.

    What happened to the $200k borrowed?

    Hummer for the daily driver.

    Mercedes convertible for the misses.

    Corvette for the mister.

    Couple of get skis at the shore house.

    Lots of shopping trips to the GSP.

    Some fancy vacations to boot.

    Didn’t put it back into the house, being sold-short, as-is.

    Who cares, let the taxpayer pick up the tab.

  12. Veto That says:

    “-7.8% is a rounding error.”

    3-4 years of cululative rounding errors add up to a fat discount so far. Just look at Hoboken for example. Prices are plunging there.

  13. scribe says:

    schump,

    when someone has two mortgages that are in arrears for 9 months like that … won’t the borrower get a lot more time while the banks try to figure it out?

    how much?

  14. safeashouses says:

    #11 grim

    Granite?
    Stainless?
    Hardwood floors?

  15. grim says:

    #11 – Nothing, as-is. At least the listing isn’t talking about massive reno.

  16. grim says:

    Let’s review that list..

    Equifirst
    Option One
    Guardian Loan
    Centex Home Eq. (Nationstar)

    The public records read like the Mortgage Implode-o-Meter.

  17. safeashouses says:

    #15 grim

    Maybe they were paying to send Graydon and Ellory to the Ivy leagues? Paying for medical bills? Launching a business?

    Trying to think of a reason besides consumption.

  18. safeashouses says:

    #18 grim

    Maybe they were the most prudent of us all. They got an extra 200k for free to play with and all they took was a hit on their credit report.

  19. grim says:

    #18 had an issue, wasn’t zero down. Under 10% for the initial 2001 purchase and they didn’t even wait a full year to refi that DP back out.

  20. grim says:

    10-Year making a run at 4?

  21. Schumpeter says:

    3b (8)-

    Kreuzfeld-Jakob is more than a brain recession.

  22. grim says:

    BOHICA! Why not just shut it all down? I’m sure Goldman would buy a racetrack.

    From the Record:

    N.J. sports authority warns of growing fiscal problems

    Squeezed by continuing losses at the state’s racetracks, the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority may need millions in state funding to keep it afloat, according to sources who have been briefed on the matter.

    Authority officials denied there was any plan in play to seek state assistance, but said it would not surprise anyone that the agency is have mounting financial problems that will soon require some hard choices.

    “Our revenue challenges are well known,” spokesman John Samerjan said. However, he said, the authority has yet to finalize a budget and that any assertion of how those numbers will stack up — or for that matter, that a request for state funding had been made — was “simply untrue.”

    Authority Chairman Carl Goldberg said he would not talk about the authority’s growing budget problems until he meets with the incoming administration. He is scheduled to sit down with Governor-elect Chris Christie Tuesday to discuss a number of issues.

  23. Schumpeter says:

    scribe (13)-

    If the borrower is cagey and plays the game, 18 to 24 months.

    This guy is mentally fried, however. His lenders were calling him over and over on his cell while we were meeting. He gets it every day, including holidays. He’s on meds and clinically depressed…so it’s time for him to move on.

  24. grim says:

    Stu/Gator, comments?

    From the Record:

    Developers pull out of MSU student housing and retail complex

    The developers behind a student housing and retail complex planned for the central business district have pulled out of the project, killing a development that would have radically reshaped Montclair’s downtown.

    The news dashed some municipal officials’ hopes that the complex – which would have housed up to 1,000 Montclair State University students, as well as retail boutiques and eateries – would boost the local economy, provide increased ratables, and create a college-town ambience along Bloomfield Avenue’s commercial corridor.

    New state legislation, the depressed economy, and difficulty coming to an agreement with municipal officials are to blame, said Bruce McKee, vice-president for Alabama-based developer Capstone Companies. Capstone was to develop the student-housing portion of the complex.

  25. Schumpeter says:

    safe (17)-

    Tuition is a big reason for MEW. A lady I rejected two years ago for not being honest with me in the interview sucked all her equity out of her house and put her kid through NYU film school.

    Her foreclosure was dismissed last week, when she finally declared BK. She was able to string out her lender for 2.5 years. Impressive!

  26. Schumpeter says:

    grim (22)-

    That’d be a great venue for demolition derbies.

  27. Schumpeter says:

    grim (24)-

    Montclair State will fail and shut its doors within five years.

  28. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    More Existing Homeowners Move up in November

    The $6,500 homebuyer tax credit is getting existing homeowners off the fence and to the closing table, according to a Campbell Communications monthly survey of real estate market conditions.

    Existing homeowners accounted for 41% of home purchase transactions in November, up from 38% in October.

  29. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Mortgages Keep Falling Behind in Q309

    The overall mortgage performance continues suffer as borrowers face rising unemployment and falling home values. The percentage of current performing mortgages dropped 1.5% from the previous quarter to 87.2%. Seriously delinquent mortgages – those behind 60 or more days – climbed to 6.2%, a 16.7% increase from Q209. New foreclosure actions took place on more than 369,000 loans, and of all the mortgages studied, 3.2% fell into the foreclosure process.

    The report also showed delinquencies creeping into prime mortgage pools. The percentage of prime mortgages falling into serious delinquency reached 3.6% in Q309, up 19.6% from the previous quarter.

  30. PGC says:

    Lisooh,

    From the previous thread on your parking space. Are you by any chance Vegetarian?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fci_5In9f5E

  31. safeashouses says:

    West Orange is nuts. Seems like houses listed between 275 to 300k all have 10 to 12k a year in taxes. Lots of houses are listing for lower than their previous sales price. Some houses seem to change hands every 1 to 2 years for the last 5 years.

    Maybe I should switch to Knob Creek

  32. Schumpeter says:

    grim (29)-

    Anyone who believes that article- and its patently false conclusions- is dumber than Frank.

  33. Schumpeter says:

    safe (31)-

    Unfortunately, Knob Creek cannot alter reality. It just gives you a break from it for a few hours.

  34. safeashouses says:

    #33 clot

    Concussions do the same.

  35. Herring123 says:

    Actually the NYU film school lady was pretty smart. Had the kid taken out student loans to pay tuition, none of it would’ve been dischargeable in bankruptcy absent extraordinary circumstances and the student would have been FCUKED for life. Instead all she has is a measly foreclosure to deal with…

  36. safeashouses says:

    Here’s a short sale in West Orange. Listed at 20% under 2002 sales price according to trulia. Plus it’s had some renovations/maintenance done.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/1079221059-30-Westwood-Dr-S-West-Orange-NJ-07052

  37. Schumpeter says:

    herring (35)-

    No foreclosure. BK stops foreclosure.

    I’m sure it will end up in liquidation, but she’ll get another 18 months in that dump.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (24) Grim

    Hate to be a tease but there’s more to that story.

    Just follow Deep Throat’s 3 word admonition to Bernstein.

  39. Schumpeter says:

    safe (36)-

    Under 200K, and a $9,300 tax bill. They should just bulldoze it now.

  40. Schumpeter says:

    safe (34)-

    You in a fight club or something? :)

  41. safeashouses says:

    #39 Schumpter,

    Frigging amazing. Why are the taxes so high in West Orange?

  42. safeashouses says:

    I tried pole vaulting in high school.

  43. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (35) Herring

    Ya know, I smell a planning opportunity here.

    Tuition, property, strategic defaults, hmmmmm.

  44. Schumpeter says:

    safe (42)-

    Ugh. So did I. One whole season. I’d have been happier on a tort^re rack.

  45. safeashouses says:

    I must have knocked at least 20 iq points out of my head

  46. grim says:

    Ya know, I smell a planning opportunity here.

    Not to worry, we’ll just make diploma subject to title theory.

    Repo man a comin’ for your MBA.

  47. House Whine says:

    Three disturbing things about the economy in Hawaii I just read: 1) Public schools are closed on most Fridays because they don’t have the money to pay everyone; 2) Cutbacks in the number of health inspectors with the elimination of the dept. which makes sure that rodents and pests don’t find there way into restaurants (yuch, this should scare plenty of tourists away), and 3) lack of funds to handle the special election for a possible upcoming vacancy in Congress.
    Also, the number of homeless is increasing. I can’t figure out from what I read why the state is in such a pickle. It says it’s real estate market wasn’t affected as adversely as other states were.

  48. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Credit Suisse Group Takes Over Atlantic City’s Oldest Casino

    Credit Suisse Group AG has taken over New Jersey’s oldest casino, becoming the second European bank in 16 months to claim ownership of a defaulting U.S. gambling resort.

    Colony Capital LLC last week handed over Resorts Atlantic City’s deed to mortgage holders led by Credit Suisse’s Column Financial in lieu of foreclosure, after missing payments on a $360 million loan since November 2008. Credit Suisse had bundled $175 million of the loan into a commercial mortgage-backed security sold to other investors, according to documents filed with New Jersey’s casino control commission.

  49. grim says:

    1) Public schools are closed on most Fridays because they don’t have the money to pay everyone;

    Yeah, it is called Furlough Fridays. Teachers union commercials repeatedly blast it on almost every radio station in the state. This was in response to a massive state budget deficit.

    http://doe.k12.hi.us/news/furlough/calendars/PUBLICDOEcalendar0910furloughfinal.pdf

    I’m surprised we don’t hear much about it, here on the mainland.

  50. safeashouses says:

    #49 grim

    wonder if furloguh fridays is on it’s way to the mainland

  51. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Safe 50 not in NJ.

  52. Mikeinwaiting says:

    No money to save have to 180 school days so just go longer into the summer.

  53. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Have to have

  54. safeashouses says:

    I gotta stop looking at prices in West Orange. I’ll turn into clot and start shouting no one will be spared.

  55. cobbler says:

    Unlike NJ, Hawaii’s tourists are captive – once they bought an airline ticket, they can’t go anywhere else. As most of HI revenue shortfall is resulting from ~15% drop in tourism, legislature plans to smack the remaining tourists with the hotel occupancy tax increase from 7.5 to 12.5%.

  56. Mikeinwaiting says:

    safe very few will.

  57. House Whine says:

    49- Yeah, we also wondered why we hadn’t heard about this. Do you think the reason we are now hearing about it is because Obama will be visiting Hawaii for the holidays?

  58. PGC says:

    As an artist I really admire this guy. He did some great pieces in New Orleans after Katrina.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/2009/dec/21/banksy-copenhagen-regents-canal

  59. chicagofinance says:

    233.Essex says:
    December 21, 2009 at 5:15 pm
    I rented in Chicago for five years…talk about SNOW and parking issues. Of course in places like that shithole you usually drive a crapheap so whatever happens to it is not an issue.

    SX: Chicago is many things and has obvious warts, but it is not a sh!thole. Essentially, it is a real cool place that desperately has to deal with the fact that it is not NYC and has to compensate for the fact that from November to March, in July and August the weather sucks a%%. Otherwise, it is fcuking unbelievable.

  60. chicagofinance says:

    SX: Also, Chicago does not have a lot of snow. In fact if you say it does and you also say you lived there five years, then I might not believe you.

    Look at where the lake is and look at where the weather approaches. Indiana and Michigan gets tons of lake effect snow, but Chicago is pretty modest. They even get less so than here, because they never have Nor’Easters….

  61. chicagofinance says:

    l: you know that many of my Asian/South Asian school friends refuse to date/marry Jersey asians? Why, because they have BIG HAIR. You know, I’m starting to wonder if you don’t too :)

    255.lisoosh says:
    December 21, 2009 at 6:48 pm
    Chi -Costco is NOT big hair. The big hair goes to Sams Club.
    Costco is popular with Asians -they like the free samples.
    You should look into them, they carry a lot of organic stuff.

  62. chicagofinance says:

    Hunter (3) and I are watching the stock market wrap-up….or the “Supermarket” as he says. He told me that he likes Target, FedEx and UPS because Christmas is coming soon. He also likes Amazon, because the boxes they deliver have a smile on them. Also, he likes a Goldilocks economy. Not because of sustained growth with modest inflation, but rather he likes the story of Goldilocks, so a Goldilocks economy must be good.

  63. d2b says:

    chicagofinance says:
    December 21, 2009 at 10:50 pm

    SX: Chicago is many things and has obvious warts, but it is not a sh!thole. Essentially, it is a real cool place that desperately has to deal with the fact that it is not NYC and has to compensate for the fact that from November to March, in July and August the weather sucks a%%. Otherwise, it is fcuking unbelievable.

    This is a bit of a backhand compliment.

  64. sas says:

    what the heck is going on with New Zealand banking?

    recession over, not yet.

    SAS

  65. sas says:

    who is brittany murphy?
    or is that another one of them domesticated saps?

    SAS

  66. Outofstater says:

    #10 That place has all the charm of an assisted living facility.

  67. sas says:

    I just hope OTB stays. I don’t want to see that go.

    we use to sneak out the back door and goto yankee clipper, or that over to the GWB office and do a little wagering.

    I always enjoyed horses.
    SAS

  68. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [54] safe

    “I’ll turn into clot and start shouting no one will be spared.”

    Please don’t start channeling clot. If you do, I’ll have to subdue you.

  69. Essex says:

    The first summer we were there 500 people died in a heatwave. 500. Corporate HQs were leaving in droves. It is the murder capital of America.

    Michael Jordon came back and played bBall. That was the highlight. Otherwise. Pure suck.

  70. Cindy says:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/goldman-holiday-cartoon.html

    via Naked Capitalism..

    “No, no, no I’ve been put on Earth to do God’s work.”

  71. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    New Jersey Leads Municipal Bond Downgrades as State Aid Shrinks

    Bond ratings of New Jersey towns and cities are being reduced faster than in any other state as property values slide 11 percent and Governor Jon Corzine lowers municipal aid to cope with a $1 billion budget deficit.

    Moody’s Investors Service cut ratings on $592 million in general obligation debt issued by 14 municipalities since October, about four times the rate for neighboring New York, the second-most indebted state, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. New Jersey’s per-capita personal income of $51,358 last year was exceeded only by Connecticut, according to the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

    With the U.S. jobless rate hovering around 10 percent and tax revenue dwindling, the downgrades in New Jersey, the most- densely populated state, may be the start of a national trend, according to Richard Ciccarone, chief research officer at McDonnell Investment Management in Oak Brook, Illinois. Nine of 10 finance officers polled by the National League of Cities in September said it would be difficult to meet their fiscal needs in 2010, the worst outlook in 24 years.

    “In many of the large states, this is going to become the norm: California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois,” said Ciccarone, whose firm oversees $6.8 billion in municipal bonds, including New Jersey debt. “The stress levels have got to be very high right now for municipal fiscal officials.”

  72. grim says:

    (cont)

    In Clifton, a suburb 11 miles (18 kilometers) west of New York, finances suffered in fiscal 2008 from the state property- tax cap, rising employee costs, a $536,000 drop in investment income and property-tax collections that were $263,000 below projections, according to Moody’s. The company last month lowered to A2 from A1 its rating on $50 million of the municipality’s debt.

    The city may fire workers and reduce nearly all core services, including trash and park operations, City Manager Al Greco said in an interview. Clifton lost $2.5 million in state aid this year to help fund a $115 million budget, Greco said.

  73. still_looking says:

    Cindy,

    Every day, a little bit better (or a lot) I hope.

    sl

  74. Cindy says:

    Still 78 – Yes, actually. A little better each day. Saw my doc yesterday. He wants me to run a second seven-day course of the Levaquin – just to be certain. I will have a follow-up Xray in about three weeks.

    Tests came back neg for H1N1. Must have been bacterial pneumonia. They sure watched my white count before they would release me. Had to be under 14,000.

  75. Schumpeter says:

    sl (77)-

    I think this guy’s got some fight in him. He really got going when I told him how much the banks were going to have to pay. He also followed the conversation and understood his options. The ones who are really bad off don’t pay attention to half the info I give.

    I sure hope I’m right.

  76. Schumpeter says:

    Anybody catch the senaturd who asked for people to pray something would happen to a Dem so he couldn’t show up to vote on healthcare?

    That’s my kind of politician.

  77. freedy says:

    i feel bad, only went a year without paying the mortgage.

  78. freedy says:

    clifton, a true shit hole

  79. Schumpeter says:

    The Argentine outcome is beginning to look like a best-case scenario.

  80. ruggles says:

    re: the depressed guy in B’ville – It’s only a matter of time before the number of times your creditors call a day is a badge of honor. number of days you get to stay in your defaulted home before they take it already is.

  81. freedy says:

    the guy should not be depressed.
    ride the wave,, it is very trendy to
    be a dead beat. screw the banks.

  82. morpheus says:

    the hell with real estate. Didn’t anyone bay attention in the prior thread: NOM has the power to bless. My kind of blessings.

    I will establish a shrine in my office to him. Later I will establish a temple just like the ones I saw in Asia.

    Now I really have to make the next GTG.
    Do your blessings work with people who have worn little gold bands for so many years?

  83. Kettle1 says:

    Sl

    perhaps fight club can be used as therapy. Let’s all beat the hell out of one another for fun in the evenings, and then the daily BS whether it’s stupid people, bill collectors, etc should seem like little more then background noise.

    NJRERFC?

    Who wants to host the first one? Clot might have a nice foreclosure for us to use. Bring some gauze SL?

  84. morpheus says:

    “pay” even.
    One must not blog before coffee.
    need coffee. blessed be the bean. May she cleanse all in her passing.

  85. Schumpeter says:

    The first rule of Fight Club is, you do not talk about Fight Club.

  86. ruggles says:

    speaking of cars – That audi christmas commercial illustrates perfectly in 30 seconds why we need a total collapse of society to fix anything.

  87. yikes says:

    new jersey schools are the best!

    http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-15/1261451110279210.xml&coll=1

    A Belvidere High School teacher faces charges for alleged sexual contact with a female student last week, the Warren County Prosecutor’s Office said yesterday

  88. Essex says:

    Two urban myths: Lake Effect Snow…and Gang related shootings in and around Lincoln Park.

  89. ruggles says:

    94 – since its warren county, there’s a 99% chance the teacher and student are also blood relatives.

  90. Kettle1 says:

    Clot

    can you find us a nice empty foreclosure with some tile floors so we don’t leave to many blood stains?

  91. NJGator says:

    In my inbox this morning from a local realtor (not ours thankfully):

    Tip: When is the Time to Buy
    Buying a home for the first time is a major decision that requires planning and preparation. Becoming a homeowner is an exciting process with many complexities that real estate agents are trained to manage.
    We are experienced in working with first-time buyers and are well-versed in the creative financing that can make dreams become realities. For those who are low on cash, there may be a mortgage assistance program to help you purchase a home with limited funds. Your real estate agent is familiar with these programs, which have variable guidelines. There are many financing options available in today’s marketplace. A little creativity can help you enjoy the freedom and security of owning your own home and building up equity as your property increases in value.

  92. still_looking says:

    Ket, 90

    Gauze? F*ck gauze! I’m bringing smelling salts, Dermabond (instant skin glue,) Orthoglass splint material and Hank’s solution.

    Maybe even a Pleura-Vac and chest tube trocars…

    sl

  93. still_looking says:

    If it gets to the point that I need a burr-hole drill… I’m slipping out the exit.

    sl

  94. John says:

    What the heck a bond of the day! 5.7% tax free in the 40% tax bracket is almost a 10% taxable equivalent.

    RE is going down another 10% in Tri-state. What else you gonna do with your money. Pres O is raising them taxes soon and he is trying to kill new issuance of tax free bonds, build america bonds at really just tax america bonds.

    NEW YORK N Y CITY INDL DEV AGY REV 05.00000% 03/01/2046PILOT REV BDS YANKEESTADIUM LLC SER.
    Price (Ask) 89.319
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 5.700%

  95. 3b says:

    #9 grim: Thanks.

  96. frank says:

    #12,
    “Hoboken for example. Prices are plunging there.”
    Are you kidding me? prices are at 2005-2006 level, otherwise known as all time high.

  97. safeashouses says:

    #70 nom

    Please don’t start channeling clot. If you do, I’ll have to subdue you.

    LOL. I could never fully turn into Clot. Not a fan of soccer and prefer beer to whiskey.

  98. gary says:

    NJGator [99],

    Email the realtor and tell them you have a friend who has his eye on this pretty victorian in Glen Ridge. Ask them what borrowing options are available for your friend who foreclosed and declared bankruptcy in the last six months, is currently weening off the bipolar meds and is optimistic that the manslaughter charges will be dropped.

  99. Kettle1 says:

    Sl

    I will bring my dewalt and 100 pc drill bit set, otherwise the smelling salts should be sufficent. Oh and a shovel “just in case”.

  100. make money says:

    Anybody catch the senaturd who asked for people to pray something would happen to a Dem so he couldn’t show up to vote on healthcare?

    Good time for FBI to contract the 5 families to ensure a few guys don’t make it to the voting ballot.

    However, I warn you if tehy allow competitive bidding Clot will take care of this for free.

    As a matter of fact I will write a check to IRS for 20 large if they give me immunitty to play a little James Bond.

  101. still_looking says:

    Ket, 107

    Shovel?

    Ceramic tub, chipper, acid.

    sl

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (89) Morpheus

    LMAO right now. Thx, I needed that.

    As for whether it works, I will reserve judgment. Frank also had me bless his race car and it threw a rod at NE Dragway. I guess it is sorta the same thing (shooting one’s ####) but he wasn’t too happy).

  103. 3b says:

    3rd GDP revised downwards again, form 3.5, to 2.8, to 2.2. But don’t worry economists are expecting 4th quarter GDP to b3 4%, until its revised downward,again.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-revised-down-to-22-rate-in-third-quarter-2009-12-22

  104. lisoosh says:

    #61 -Chi, I don’t have big hair, but I am thinking of getting one of those Bumpits things so I can simulate it.

    https://www.asseenontv.com/prod-pages/bmpts_ood_ontv.html

  105. safeashouses says:

    #107 gary

    LMAO

  106. chicagofinance says:

    So you judge NJ based on Newark? You judge NYC based on what happens in East NY? Please. The weather sucks, but the city tries hard to compensate for that by being cool. You are a guitar guy. You are going to harsh on the Blues?

    70.Essex says:
    December 22, 2009 at 1:15 am
    The first summer we were there 500 people died in a heatwave. 500. Corporate HQs were leaving in droves. It is the murder capital of America.

    Michael Jordon came back and played bBall. That was the highlight. Otherwise. Pure suck.

  107. BC Bob says:

    3b [111],

    Govt increased expenditures 8% and prices paid index was up 1.3%. Without govt indebtedness and price spikes there would be no green shoots. The devil is in the details.

    Hey, my neighbor is “rich”. He lives in a 1M home and drives a ferrari. Upon further review, his mortgage is 1.25 mil and his ferrari is being repossed. However, he’s rich.

  108. chicagofinance says:

    according to lurkerpret you are a fcuking loser

    102.John says:
    December 22, 2009 at 8:33 am
    RE is going down another 10% in Tri-state.

  109. 3b says:

    #116 Without the govt spending we would be talking depression, Ho-Ho Ho!!!

  110. still_looking says:

    <a href=”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aUtZYWxFdgcI&pos=15″Now I know how the FDIC is getting funds for all the failed banks…

    sl

  111. 3b says:

    #117 lurkerpret, I like that.

  112. still_looking says:

    119 is supposed to be this:
    Now I know how the FDIC is getting funds for all the failed banks…

    sl

  113. gary says:

    Dear Sellers,

    tick… tick… tick… tick…

  114. still_looking says:

    BC 116

    Isn’t that like that WH party crasher, Salahi (sp?) guy trying to pay his landscaper with a [fake, no less] Patek Phillipe watch?

    sl

  115. relo says:

    24: should read:

    The news dashed some municipal officials’ hopes that the complex would – bring them some extra spending cash at the holidays in the form of bribes and kickbacks.

  116. lisoosh says:

    Where’s Pret, oops I mean lurkerd. Those foreigners buying up NY is looking really good….

    Tenants Struggle as a British Landlord Goes Bust

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/22/nyregion/22dawnay.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1261491324-iBfJFwsBLMVOsTJBlTnCeQ

    “Foreign investors were a major force in New York’s real estate boom of the last decade, with families and companies from Dubai to Australia swallowing weekend apartments and Midtown office towers. In 2007, the roster of international investors came to include a British firm, Dawnay Day, whose executives had a splashy reputation for spending millions on fine art and yachts.

    ….. The efforts, though, didn’t get far before the recession spread across the globe and Dawnay Day went bust. Now, as part of one of the United Kingdom’s largest real estate insolvencies of the recession, the firm’s yachts are up for auction, and their expensive art has been stripped from the walls of its former London headquarters.

    And in the 47 buildings, anger, uncertainty and a degree of misery have set in. At tenant meetings, renters complain of gaping holes in their ceilings and walls that allow rats to freely roam. The properties face foreclosure, and it is very possible that the buildings may fall back into the hands of the landlord some tenants say neglected them long before they attracted a foreign buyer.

    “They were a multinational corporation guided by greed,” Juan Haro, director of the housing rights group Movement for Justice in El Barrio, who has worked with tenants in the buildings, said of Dawnay Day. “They failed miserably. They crumbled financially and they were a victim of their own devices.””

  117. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Tax News of the Day:

    “DOJ Claims Former U.S. Representative
    Transferred Property to Avoid Tax Levy

    The Justice Department filed a complaint Dec. 15 alleging that Craig Washington—a former Democrat member of the U.S. House from Texas—owes $609,872 in unpaid taxes, penalties, and interest.

    According to the complaint, filed with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas, Washington, currently a Houston attorney, had unpaid tax liabilities for the 1988 through 1990 tax years. The complaint seeks to enforce a lien against property Washington transferred to his former wife following their 1993 divorce.

    The complaint noted that the 10-year statute of limitations for collecting the taxes for the years at issue has not expired because, while the assessment was made in September 1996, Washington filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in January 1991 that was not dismissed until February 2000. It added that the limitations period was further extended by an offer in compromise proffered by Washington.

    The government said the three Houston-area properties Washington transferred to his wife were then transferred to Washington Children’s Trust No. 1 at his direction and that the trust held the properties as his agent and/or nominee.
    “The United States seeks to set aside as fraudulent the transfers of the real properties to the Washington Children’s Trust No. 1, and seeks a judgment extinguishing the interest of the Washington Children’s Trust No. 1 in the properties and ordering them sold in satisfaction of the income tax debts of Craig A. Washington, Sr.,” the complaint said.”

    So, if you are planning to transfer some title, or you are getting property in a divorce, remember that old adage, “timing is everything.”

    Right Morpheus?

  118. Schumpeter says:

    Oblivion beckons.

    Don’t fight it.

  119. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [125] Relo,

    (to the tune of Winter Wonderland)

    Doorbells ring,
    It’s the season.
    And you knowwww,
    What’s the reason,

    There’s someone out there,
    Who’s after his share,
    Sticking out his greedy, little hand.

    First to come is the doorman,
    He’ll complain, he’s a poor man.
    The janitor’s next with some lame pretext,
    Sticking out his greedy, little hand.

    Next will come the superintendent’s visit.
    He will ring your doorbell loud and long.
    When you open up and ask “what is it?”
    He just stands and sings his Christmas song.

    Later on, you’ll get the cash up,
    for the men who pick the trash up.
    It’s nice they’re all here,
    Just one day each year,
    Sticking out their greedy, little hands.

  120. FirstTimer says:

    Been lurking for quite a while and was hoping to get your thoughts. I am a prospective home buyer looking to purchase in the spring. I know the general opinion of the board seems to be that I shouldn’t but that is the plan for various reasons (job, family, etc.) Given that, I had a few first-time homebuyer type questions:

    - My job is in Morristown – looking to be within 20 minutes of there, in a town with relatively good school district and taxes. From some research, Madison, Chatham, Livingston? Budget is around 600K.

    - Any suggestions for real estate agents to talk to that work in these areas would be extremely helpful. Don’t want to end up with typical agent like referenced in #99 above.

    Thanks so much. I know posts like this are probably annoying to you guys, but I have come to trust your opinions, and any help you could provide would be extremely appreciated.

  121. Kettle1 says:

    FirstTimer,

    Talk to grim, the blog host. mHe is a licensed RE agent and you cant go wrong with him!

  122. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [131] first,

    Unless you know you want to be here for a decade or more, and you know your job isn’t going anywhere, think long and hard about buying.

    I looked in those areas over a year ago. here are my thoughts

    Livingston–taxes are outrageous and I don’t see the attraction

    Chatham–prices are outrageous and I don’t see the attraction. Schools may be good, and taxes are better because it it Morris Co., but prices are really out there because it’s Chatham.

    Madison–my favorite of the three. Schools are so-so, but prices and taxes will likely be better.

    That’s my 0.02. Others will disagree.

  123. safeashouses says:

    #132 First Timer,

    If you need full day Kindergarten you probably want to stick to Essex and Somerset counties. i think only 2 districts in Union county have an all day Kindergarten.

    Chatham. Pretty town, (Strictly anecdotal) the percentage of pretentious, arrogant people seems much higher there than Westfield, Livingston, Basking Ridge..

    If you like a semi-rural feel Warren in Somerset County has good schools, decent taxes, buy you’ll have to drive 20 minutes to go anywhere.

    Main St in Madison has horrible traffic. Only 1 lane each direction and lots of lights. If you move there you need to consider that, maybe even do a test drive from a prospective place to your job during rush hour to see what it would be like.

    New Providence and Berkeley Heights also have good schools and are nice towns.

    If you want a town with a downtown there’s Westfield and Cranford. Livingston is not as city like as them, but does have lots of stores and restaurants.

  124. 3b says:

    gary: I found your house, as I am always looking out for you. Check out the wonderful warm and inviting kitchen, and the delightful bathroom a throw back to a more simple time. Oh,and it does have 2 bedrooms, and that is a real plus. All can be yorus for a wonderful price of $714, 900.00 in Hillsdale.

    And lets not forget we are talking a blue ribbony Bergen Co. train town,

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2940456&id=999999

  125. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    First timer,

    When we looked in those areas, we used an agent that I trusted (and I trust no one). I cannot recall her name, but if I find it, I will post it. She worked out of Summit (Pru, I think).

  126. Stu says:

    Firsttimer,

    Nom is spot on his analysis of the three. If your goal is to save some money, then I too like New Providence.

  127. ruggles says:

    First timer – There’s a cheap house in bernardsville that might be coming on the market. See Clot…

    As a former chathamite, I can tell you, you’re better off in Madison.

    I also have an excellent agent suggestion but she’s not quite in the area (she’ll prob do mad and chat but livingston, i don’t know). so if you get desparate, I’ll post.

  128. FirstTimer says:

    Comrade, Safe, etc:

    Thanks for the suggestions. The plan is to be in the house for 10+ years. The wife’s family is close and she is set on living in the area.

    Comrade – if you do remember who you worked with, that would definitely be helpful. Here is a list of their agents in that office now: http://www.prudentialnewjersey.com/Directory/US/NJ/Summit

    I will definitely add New Providence to the list.

  129. Painhrtz says:

    3b fcuk my eyes

  130. FirstTimer says:

    Ruggles:

    If you don’t mind posting, would be helpful to have the name.

    Thanks so much for all the help everyone.

  131. Stu says:

    On the Montclair Capstone Developer dormitory withdrawal…Our current town council is the worst in recent history. They plan to overpay for a failed private senior center to open a public Montclair Senior Center which supposedly would also serve as a community center. The center has almost no parking and the town received a grant of 500K making the center purchase a mere 3 million now. Of course, if they accept the grant, the center must be used for senior-related activities 60% of the time. So instead of landing one of the best ratables ever in the dorm development, they instead decide to remove a large ratable and will add another 3 million to our 200 million debt.

    Anyone considering moving into Montclair better have ‘old money’ or a VERY secure job.

  132. Stu says:

    Oh yeah, and to make matters worse, when some seniors were informally polled, their number one reason for leaving Montclair was the ‘high’ property taxes.

  133. Essex says:

    115. No I judge a place based on opportunities to live and work and quality of schools.

    Love the blues though and the food there. Lakefront is nice.

  134. ruggles says:

    first timer – flor thomas – cb mendham

  135. John says:

    I am a loser baby, 202 trades in 2009 and only made money 198 times. Actually people are always mad at me. When I bought a coop in 1992 they called me just as nuts as when I loaded up on Junk Bonds a year ago. Tough not to run with the herd mentality. I even had Jets fans yelling at me when I was unloading tickets after the 3-0 start. I have around 5 Jet fans who stopped talking to me as I keep saying I am buying two PSLs for pennies on the dollar next year. They paid full price.

    Chifi, I did not ditch you with the SB Gross 600 page research thing. I did not have it. It was stamped internal research only do not distribute to clients. I was only verbally given the highlights. Which I gave to you in a one sentence. Bottom line ten year is 3.75% today.

    chicagofinance says:
    December 22, 2009 at 9:14 am
    according to lurkerpret you are a fcuking loser

    102.John says:
    December 22, 2009 at 8:33 am
    RE is going down another 10% in Tri-state.

  136. 3b says:

    #140 You did not like the double oven in the kitchen? Very handy for those who love to cook.

  137. DuckVader says:

    FirstTimer,

    Good luck on the purchase. Had friends who bought in both over the past few years in both Chatham and Madison and they’re happy with both towns. So I don’t think you’ll go much wrong with either from a big picture perspective. School systems are good and you’ll be happy with both. Find the house you like and within reason and you should be happy in either town.

  138. Veto That says:

    “Are you kidding me? prices are at 2005-2006 level, otherwise known as all time high.”

    Frank,

    the last round of UC comps you posted with same sales in the last decade showed 2004 price levels. Which is far below the 2006 peak. The one comp was borderline 2003.

    Hoboken is in state of collapse.

  139. John says:

    New Jersey is NUMBER ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    N.J. Leads Municipal Bond Downgrades as Aid Shrinks
    Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) — Bond ratings of New Jersey towns and cities are being reduced faster than in any other state as property values slide 11 percent and Governor Jon Corzine lowers municipal aid to cope with a $1 billion budget deficit.

  140. safeashouses says:

    #136 3b

    Wood paneling. Like living in a giant dartboard.

  141. 3b says:

    #151 It is knotty wood pine, Ok!! And it is probably worth a fortune.

  142. Schumpeter says:

    Stu (143)-

    That was gonna be my comment. By the time this senior center is up and running, all the seniors will have been taxed out of town.

  143. Shore Guy says:

    If one were to create a governmant structure in NJ from scratch — at al levels — right now, bering in mind the current debt load, I suspect one would not create anything that looks like what NJ has right now.

    That alone is reason enough to make rastic changes. What worked in 1917, or 1977 for that matter, may not work — heck, is not working — today.

  144. Schumpeter says:

    All hail the secretariat!

  145. Shore Guy says:

    Seniors, schmeniors. Who needs people who pay school taxes but do not use the service?

  146. Schumpeter says:

    My guess is that Montclair is about to unexpectedly develop a 3 mm homeless shelter.

    You gotta expect that town’s council will vote within the next year or two to make the entire municipality a “safe haven for the homeless”, or some such nonsense.

  147. House Whine says:

    Senior Citizen Centers..I found out recently that my town has two large senior citizen centers 1/2 mile apart from each other. One is paid for and run by the township and the other is paid for and run by the county. This duplication of services makes no financial sense to me.

  148. Schumpeter says:

    Shore (156)-

    All people in the NE corridor who reach age 62 should be forcibly quarantined within the state of PA.

    That way, the death panels can be convened in one location and work through cases more quickly than if they were spread out.

  149. Shore Guy says:

    Clot,

    A nuke-free, free-range, safe haven, sanctuary city.

  150. Shore Guy says:

    Not tax free; howev er, the city will, no doubt, tax the residents earning above $100,000/year to pay illegal residents to go to college. It is only fair.

  151. Schumpeter says:

    Shore (160)-

    I’d like to see Gator & Stu get out, then a daisy cutter gets dropped on the whole communist mess.

  152. Stu says:

    Schump:

    Check out this headline from the town website. Try not to puke:

    State Follows Montclair’s Lead: Adopts Complete Streets Policy

    http://www.montclairnjusa.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2221&Itemid=99999999

  153. Nicholas says:

    Google now has “walking directions” in beta testing on Google Maps.

    It gives an approximate time to walk the distance as well as the shortest route. Those guys are all over the place with applying technology in new ways.

  154. Cindy says:

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-smallbiz-bankruptcy22-2009dec22,0,3305684.story
    LA Times

    “Small-business bankruptcies rise 81% in California”

    “The actual number of small businesses in trouble is probably higher, experts said, because many owners file for personal bankruptcy rather than seek protection for the business.”

    So Obama met with some bankers and said “give these guys some loans.”
    Why doesn’t he add….”or your 0% money is shut off.” Did the people elect the president or the banks?….oh, never mind….

  155. Cindy says:

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homesales23-2009dec23,0,1485462.story

    According to this story: “November home sales soar 7.4%”

  156. Nicholas says:

    Been a while guys as I have been pretty busy. I got a chance to get up to NJ and see some co-workers during a holiday party.

    They do this theraputic thing at the holiday party where they gripe about management, bonuses, or both by singing hillarous songs or through caption contests. It was all very amusing until about 25 people got up and sang

    “We wish you would really hire us.
    We wish you would really hire us.
    We wish you would really hire us.
    Or we will lose our jobs.”

    Apparently our company lost 3 important contracts and whole segments are on the verge of getting canned. They were pleading with other hiring managers to throw project hours their way. It was uncomfortable and not humorous when they sang.

    It felt kinda like a guy that tries to wash your windshield and you know you are not going to give him any money but he keeps trying harder.

  157. frank says:

    November home sales soar 7.4 percent
    Home sales up 7.4 percent in November as federal aid spurs sales

    where’s the recession? Buy a home now, before prices skyrocket.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/November-home-sales-soar-74-apf-1426453664.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

  158. safeashouses says:

    #164 stu,

    Good luck implementing that in Hunterdon, Sussex counties and parts of Somerset like Warren and Basking Ridge. Very important people have sidewalks/footpaths so they can walk 3 miles or more to the nearest store.

    Of course perhaps someone’s BIL owns a masonry/paving firm and will get the exclusive rights. Maybe they can add jitney services or go green and build light rails throughout the more rural areas of NJ.

  159. Nicholas says:

    About two weeks ago I heard that Verizon is letting 400 sub-contractors go in an effort to stop the bleeding.

    My sister-in-law was one of the subcontractors that got fired. She now has been layed-off twice in one recession…amazing.

    In addition I was shoveling snow this weekend when one of my neighbors mentioned that Care First (is that Blue Cross Blue Shield?) is planning a reduction in force by 600 over the next three years with cuts to the first 200 to begin immediately.

    I was just about at the point where I started thinking that things were going to get better but I’m going to hold that judgement in reserve until the spring. I believe that there will be a long descent for the next few years given the way things are moving.

  160. still_looking says:

    Dear Santa,

    Please please please, let gold go under $1000/oz soon.

    Thank you,

    sl

  161. frank says:

    U.S. house prices rose 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis
    from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index.

  162. morpheus says:

    nom at 128:

    bad luck to mention divorce. This is after argument today with wife who took the side of the brazlian wife who took an american husband’s son to brazil. You know that case: wife gets a divorce in brazil,re marries and then dies.

    Just what I need to think about today. should make her next trip to visit the family in asia very enjoyable

  163. Cindy says:

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosures22-2009dec22,0,7969044.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fmostviewed+(L.A.+Times+-+Most+Viewed+Stories)

    Here is a jolt of reality.

    “More Prime Mortgages Default in 3rd Quarter”

    “For the first quarter ever, the number of homes in foreclosure with mortgages services by U.S. national banks and savings and loans topped the 1-million mark, according to figures released Monday by the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.”

  164. lisoosh says:

    Cindy #165 –

    Some Columbia U dude was being interviewed on Bloomberg radio yesterday. They got to the value of the financial sector.

    His conclusion was that try as he might he couldn’t find any.

    Most investments pushed are high potential yield and very speculative, “real” businesses aren’t as attractive because the returns are lower.

    He called it the failure of financial capitalism (I paraphrase). It was a good segment.

    Cue Chi bemoaning academics and how they aren’t in the field and don’t really get it and how the finance world brings tremendous value to everything it touches.

  165. lisoosh says:

    #173 – hope it’s not Japan. From what I understand if kids get taken to Japan and the parents divorce, the non-custodial parent essentially gives up all rights.

    Don’t know how anyone can side with that Brazilian woman and her husbands family are a disgrace.

  166. still_looking says:

    Nicholas, 170

    shhhhhh you’ll spoil frank’s drug induced delusional high…

    remember:

    1) everything is fine.
    2) those millions of REO houses that have been kept off the market are fake.
    3) unemployment really is improving – uh, let me check back with you on that one…
    4) the folks who made it back to work are making just as much more money than they did before.
    5) this story is just some fabrication
    6) there is a tooth fairy
    7) there is a Santa Claus (see 171)
    8) yes you are a special and unique snowflake.

    sl

  167. Sean says:

    From yesterday.

    A&E had a series “Parking Wars”

    http://www.aetv.com/parking-wars/glossary/

    One episode.

    Parking Marker:
    Also a marker of how bad the Boston parking situation has become, this is an object (such as a cone or lawn chair) left in a parking space to indicate that a specific person shoveled away the snow and therefore claims (and will defend) it.

  168. still_looking says:

    176

    Lis, I am with you on this one… the kid was abducted. They figured if they could keep him kidnapped long enough he would eventually Stockholm syndrome into wanting to stay there.

    This is one example of why I still believe there is a God. She’s dead. I assume the daughter she was birthing died too. God paid both of them back, the husband and the dead bitch.

    If they don’t return the kid soon… I would hope His swift justice would fix the rest of them.

    May they rot in hell.

    sl

  169. Cindy says:

    Lisoosh @ 175

    I was just thinking that if O …”told them they owed it to the nation to make more loans to small businesses and help rebuild the economy” he should have added an “or else.”

    Talk, talk, talk – that is all he does.

  170. Schumpeter says:

    stu (163)-

    All I hear is the giant sucking sound of your wallet being vacuumed.

  171. Cindy says:

    179 – You know Still, sometimes I wish you would just drop that veil of complacency and tell us what you really think…

  172. Schumpeter says:

    morph (173)-

    Was it you I recommended the wood chipper and steamer trunk to?

    I forget.

  173. Kettle1 says:

    Used to think verizon Fios service was good. but then i recently recieved a collection notice for an unpaid verzion account. The amount is the exact amount that verizon overcharged one of my accounts and refunded to me about a year ago!!!!!

    Its takes 15 minutes and 500 submenues to get a real person on their phone system and since verizon internally splits their boston and NY/NJ divisions i have already spent about 2 hours ad 12 phone calls on the phone, just to try and find someon at verizon who knows what is going on.

    I am through with that and sent a letter to the collection agency demanding they prove that they debt is real, to include photo copies of any and all documentation that tie me to any such debt.

  174. Stu says:

    Best part of the NJ complete streets:

    The following exemption: 4) Cost of accommodations is excessively disproportionate to cost of project, more than twenty percent (20%) of total cost.

    So we just gave contractors the ‘Green Light’ to charge an additional 19.99% on every new road project.

    Yay Jersey!

  175. Schumpeter says:

    sl (179)-

    This was clearly a job for a tactical extraction team.

    Going through Brazilian courts? This is a country where police round up street kids and shoot them.

  176. d2b says:

    Kettle1-
    Only mark on my credit report ever is from Verizon. Very screwed up billing on their part.

  177. Schumpeter says:

    Five former Navy seals, some flash-bang grenades and a little camo.

    You’d have that kid out of there in no time.

  178. Schumpeter says:

    Or, just hire sas.

  179. Schumpeter says:

    Verizon is proof that Satan lives among us.

  180. Painhrtz says:

    That would be clot but the advice applies to all

  181. 3b says:

    3168 frank: Did you read the whole article. Sales are up, prices are down, the urgency to buy is gone.

    Just thought I would recap it for you sicne you never actually read the articles.

  182. Stu says:

    Hey Nom. Does the whole family ski?

    Gator and I have been discussing whether or not we take junior skiing again this year. Gator don’t ski due to her bad knees, but I’m the moron who still sports traditional 225s (steel) and never miss an opportunity. They might not carve, but I never have to push my fat ass to the lifts and they tear up ice.

    Well, any chance you’d like to do a trip with us?

  183. d2b says:

    I start holiday shopping tomorrow. Just wondering if you spent more, less, or about the same and why?

    I am spending less for a few reasons.

    1.) We took an vacation a month ago. When I came back I paid off the cards and I have no interest in paying big bills a month from now.

    2.) We need very little and I want no junk.

    3.) Want to splurge on LR furniture in the spring.

  184. fly-over says:

    re:136
    I’m drooling over the 1950′ ovens, cooktop, and pink tile bath.

  185. 3b says:

    #196 Now that is the spirit. I am glad you can appreciate that this was a custom built house 50 plus years ago. And lovingly maintained by its original owners. And it is worth every penny at 714K.

  186. Stu says:

    fly-over (196):

    The best part is the fact that the two bathrooms are exactly alike, except one doesn’t have a bath. That is just freaky.

    “THE DWELLING NEEDS SOME TLC AND IS BEING SOLD AS-IS BUT THE SETTING AND PROPERTY SIZE WARRANT DOING THE NECESSARY UPDATES.”

    What this dwelling needs is some bulldozing Waco style.

  187. Sean says:

    anyone see his video from last week’s eagles vs san fran game?

    The Philadelphia Eagles fans let two misguided 49ers supporters know what its like in our house.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2isksLw0jW8&feature=player_embedded

  188. Kettle1 says:

    Schump

    a tactical extraction would probably cost less then the attornys for the court fiasco.

    Would be a no-brainer for me. With instructions to execute wit
    h extreme prejudice

  189. NJGator says:

    Sl 179 – The half-sister lives. Part of the Brazilian family’s dubious legal argument is that it would be wrong to take him away from his half-sister after he has already lost his mother.

    According to the APP “After the Thursday stay was issued, New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg placed a hold on a bill renewing a trade deal that allows Brazil and other countries to export some products duty-free to the United States. Brazil received about $2.75 billion in benefits last year from the agreement, according to Smith.” This needs to happen yesterday.

  190. Kim says:

    FirstTimer,

    Also check out East Hanover and Hanover Township (Whippany/Cedar Knolls). Those towns have lower taxes than the other towns mentioned and have very good schools. The one drawback is none of them have good downtown areas.

  191. 3b says:

    #198 Stu: Sooooo?? You have never heard of a sponge bath?

  192. fly-over says:

    re:203
    It is a hysterical landmark, so can’t be updated.

  193. still_looking says:

    Cindy, 182

    Stuff like that sickens me.

    sl

  194. still_looking says:

    Schump 186

    Should’ve been done 5 yrs ago — now they’ll scream about how since he was abducted by us so long ago has been here so long, he should stay here.

    What goes around comes around..sometimes sooner than later…

    sl

  195. still_looking says:

    Now… compare this to the Janet Reno case with that Cuban kid *we* used force to return to *his* dad. I forgot his name, it was probably 15 or so years ago.

    sl

  196. Kettle1 says:

    clot

    i wonder if Blackwater does private reditions

  197. NJGator says:

    207 SL – Elian Gonzalez

  198. still_looking says:
  199. Schumpeter says:

    vodka (208)-

    Blackwater will do anything for money.

  200. morpheus says:

    207:
    I agreed with what they did with the cuban kid. His father was still alive and the woman took the child away and fled to the US.

    OK conservatives, call me a commie! Assuming no abuse, You cannot take a man’s child away from him. I dont give a shit if the kid is in commie cuba, he is with his father.

    Sorry, as a parent, I get rather emotional about this. Will tell some stories at GTG about past issues realting to these situations. I do not want to leave a paper trail.

  201. John says:

    Thank god I can pop out kids quicker than a crackhead can spend $20 bucks. I would of had 20 new kids in the time that guy spent looking for one kid.

  202. still_looking says:

    Yes, that kid… thanks all…

    Please, feel free to compare and contrast… and then, remember, Elian’s father was not some rich lawyer with a well politically connected family.

    I guess my point is…. Why Can’t the F*cking People of this World do the RIGHT thing??

    That’s the issue for me – WHERE is the justice?

    I feel like the world threw right and wrong out the window and now it’s simply all about

    “What Can I Get Away With??”

    I know the world is unfair. But there used to be some people who upheld laws and promoted decency, honesty and fairness…

    That’s why I’m so angry. I gotta get my haircut. Maybe I’ll be more civilized when I return…maybe not.

    sl

  203. Stu says:

    “Blackwater will do anything for money.”

    Or they will do ‘nothing’ for money.

    http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2007/10/02/blackwater_bush/

  204. Schumpeter says:

    “If it isn’t clear to everyone by this time that the United States remains firmly in the grips of a massive “shadow recession,” then we can only credit this ignorance with some unshakable and deeply rooted form of denial or a seriously reckless case of willful blindness. Either way, we would like to commend the current powers that be for their tour de force performance in establishing themselves firmly both as the most masterful of bullshit artists to occupy the beltway (and that’s saying something) and simply the most economically inept (and expensive) team ever to hold national office. The risk adjusted returns on this particular ruling clique would make the pre-dollarization Zimbabwe carry trade look attractive.

    If there is a silver lining to be found here it is probably that this little experiment might finally drive a splintered wooden stake through the heart of John Maynard Keynes’ ghost (or at least irradiate Paul Krugman’s ravings to within 50 rads of his professional life).”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/underlying-todays-gdp-revisions

  205. Sean says:

    re: #213 – “You cannot take a man’s child away from him”

    It happens all the time here in the US. Why would you think Brazil would be any different?

    I have seen people who were once sane caring people go to extremes to keep the kid away from the father, and they all grew up and lived in the same town!

  206. Sean says:

    Anyone have a decent recipe for fricassee Fido?

    Who would have thought Fido’s carbon footprint was larger than an SUV.

    Polluting pets: the devastating impact of man’s best friend

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091220/sc_afp/lifestyleclimatewarminganimalsfood

  207. Schumpeter says:

    Doesn’t every great nation need a clandestine, rogue army of thugs to do the “things” that really need to be done to uphold freedom around the world?

    [sarcasm again stuck "on"]

  208. Kettle1 says:

    SL

    there used to be some people who upheld laws and promoted decency, honesty and fairness…

    Its the great cosmic catch 22. Such empires do not last long before becoming corrupt. Such individuals usually do not come out on top at the end of the story.

    Such a world would also dictate that modern politics and most of our social programs not be tolerated. Good luck with that

  209. plg says:

    Gov.-elect Chris Christie compiles plans to slash N.J. spending up to 25 percent

    By Statehouse Bureau Staff
    December 22, 2009, 11:11AM
    TRENTON — Gov.-elect Chris Christie and his transition aides are compiling plans to slash New Jersey state spending and state programs by as much as 25 percent in response to the continuous flow of dim financial news from the New Jersey Treasury Department, according to an internal document obtained by The Star-Ledger.

    Even before he takes office next month, his team is looking for programs that can be eliminated entirely and calling on state administrators to find untapped federal funds to cover whatever they possibly can.

    David Gard/The Times of TrentonState workers heading home walk past the Statehouse.”Absent strong action, revenues and expenditures will likely remain out of balance for the foreseeable future,” according to a Dec. 18 memo from the state Office of Management and Budget to all cabinet members and agency directors.

    The letter was dispatched “at the request of the governor-elect’s transition team” and said the deadline for responses is Jan. 6, nearly two weeks before Christie is to be sworn in. Christie, a Republican, defeated Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in last month’s election and has been critical of Corzine’s spending practices and budget forecasts.

    The latest cuts, aimed at closing a budget gap Christie estimates at $9.5 billion, would come on top of cuts ordered by Corzine to close a $1 billion hole in the current $29 billion budget. The governor has yet to reveal those plans but expects to do so before Christmas. Corzine has also frozen “discretionary” state aid to municipalities and arts groups, forcing them to scramble to pay bills.

    Unlike the federal government, state law requires Trenton’s spending and revenue to be in balance; deficits are not allowed.

    ——————————————————————————–
    • Full Star-Ledger coverage of the N.J. Governor-elect Chris Christie transition

    •Full Star-Ledger coverage of the N.J. budget

    ——————————————————————————–

    “In light of the state’s fiscal circumstances, all agencies are asked to submit reduction plans equal to 15 percent, 20 percent and 25 percent below their” budget projections for fiscal 2011, according to the memo. The cuts cannot include the recent rounds of reductions enacted by Corzine, but must, instead, be made on top of them — and must include at least a five percent cut in spending on direct state services. “Across the board reductions are not to be submitted; instead consideration should be given to the elimination of ineffective programs or the consolidation of duplicative programs.”

    That reflects the “zero-based budgeting” approach Christie laid out during the campaign, to scorn from Democrats who said he lacked specifics. The memo also repeats Christie’s vow not to raise taxes or fees, even if it means drastically shrinking the size and scope of government.

    “The current situation requires the state to review its operations, to determine which functions should continue and which no longer are necessary,” it says. “Revenue enhancements in place of reductions will not be considered at this time.”

    The document urges agency heads to find savings without cutting salary accounts and to “maximize federal revenue,” including by shifting state employees into empty slots funded by the federal government. The only new spending that is acceptable must “be shown to result in long-term savings” and fit within the cuts framework.

    For weeks, Christie has been laying the groundwork for extreme budget moves — from resisting more funding for food pantries to warning that some of his favorite causes, like higher education, might not be spared the ax in his first year.

    “We’re broke,” has become his recurring line.

    On Monday, Christie was asked about the possibility of using millions in state revenue to keep the struggling New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority afloat. “In the end, they’ve got to understand that, despite the season, I’m not in a giving mood,” Christie said.

    But Democrats — who control both houses of the Legislature — are already beginning to balk at sharp cuts at the same time that Christie is planning to let extra income taxes on the state’s wealthiest people expire.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/12/nj_budget_statehouse_cuts_memo.html

  210. Shore Guy says:

    Tonight on True Parking Lot Wars of New Jersey: Roadtrip to Seaside. Watch what happens when a carload of Hudson County yuts encounter a jeep that cuts them off and takes the last parking spot. Rated TV-R (will rot your brains).

  211. Stu says:

    Christie sounds a lot like Corzine did shortly after getting elected. What’s next? Will he utter the words, “Hold me accountable?”

  212. Shore Guy says:

    ““In light of the states fiscal circumstances, all agencies are asked to submit reduction plans equal to 15 percent, 20 percent and 25 percent below their” budget projections for fiscal 2011, according to the memo. The cuts cannot include the recent rounds of reductions enacted by Corzine, but must, instead, be made on top of them — and must include at least a five percent cut in spending on direct state services. “Across the board reductions are not to be submitted; instead consideration should be given to the elimination of ineffective programs or the consolidation of duplicative program”

    This is like budget p0rn. Cuts, cuts. Yes, oh yes, yesssssssssssssssssss!

  213. skep-tic says:

    house on my street offered for $850k in 2008 just sold for $420k last week. This is rougly 2001 pricing. Is this the bottom?

  214. Schumpeter says:

    Shore (225)-

    Hand out pink slips, and send everyone in Trenton packing. Leave that festering town to the gangs and drug dealers.

    Nobody will notice the diff.

  215. Schumpeter says:

    skep (226)-

    Nope. Next comes the blow-off bottom.

  216. Painhrtz says:

    Once again need a cohesive centrist third party to put a nail in the coffin of the well connected pols for life dems and repubs. Somebody wake the sheople.

    clot thanks great read. At least some folks are getting it.

  217. frank says:

    #222,
    “The document urges agency heads to find savings without cutting salary accounts”
    Are you Fn kidding me, so you mean Christie will keep all those Corzine new hires on the payroll?
    Give me my vote back.

  218. Cindy says:

    Still @ 205 “Stuff like that sickens me.” Got it.
    @ 215 I too look for examples of decency, honesty and fairness. I won’t give up.

    This Doom Loop – moral hazard era – whatever it is CAN’T last forever. There are decent people in this world and they will eventually have their say. I know, I know. Clot, You are always laughing at me. But that is how I honestly feel.

  219. Veto That says:

    “find savings without cutting salary accounts”

    I guess Christie figures that cutting jobs would just increase unemployment outlays, thereby cancelling out any net cost reductions in the overall budget.
    Still, even if they avoid layoffs, you would think that a %5 salary cut would be in the plan somewhere.

  220. Schumpeter says:

    frank (230)-

    According to you, you and your pals sunk billions of our $$$ into financials before the economy tanked.

    Give me back my money. Then, turn yourself in for having stolen it in the first place.

    We don’t need a team to go get that kid in Brazil. We need to rendition Frank to a CIA prison in Romania.

  221. Kettle1 says:

    Sean, 219

    drivel. global warming pets???? half the US drives an expedition and we are going to bitch about cats and dogs?

    The # sounds BS to me thought. assume a golf get 30 mpg and drives 12,000 miles per year –> 400 Gallons of gas a year are used.

    per the EPA, gasoline combustion produces 2.421 KG of carbon per gallon consumed. that means the golf in our example produces 968.4 KG of carbon per year.

    The average dog/cat food is animal byproducts left over from the production of human food. So lets say 75% of pet food is from the left overs and the other 25% is from human grade product.

    A common average figure is 2Kg carbon for every pound of beef produced. Most pet food is a mixture of beef poultry and fish, but lets assume its all beef since that has the highest carbon foot print.

    the average medium sized dog is eating 304 lbs/yr of meat, or (304 * 2 = 608) 608Kg carbon from meat and 190 lbs of grain per year or ( 190 * 0.15 = 28.5) 28.5 Kg carbon from grain. Thats a total of 636.5 Kg of carbon for a medium sized dog.

    The article is BS fluff.

  222. meter says:

    I have to say, although I’m the most cynical and sarcastic person I know (I pride myself on those qualities), this site has raised my sarcasm level by a factor of somewhere between 2 and 3.

    Nice to have like-minded people out there, even if I don’t necessarily agree with their every political opinion (looking at you, Shump & Nom).

  223. skep-tic says:

    here’s how I can the price drops continuing in 2010

    1. Unemployment continues to get worse

    2. Interest rates go higher

    3. Other “stimulus” is cut (e.g., the homebuyer tax credit).

    The most likely of these right now is number 2, but I still think significant interest rate rises might be a 2011 phenomenon.

  224. jcer says:

    Skep 2001 is probably not bottom, but is darn close in my mind. The late 90′s represented tremendous affordability, by 99-2000 growth really started. If the economy recovered that would be bottom, but I don’t see that as the case so the prices will be pressured by a smaller number of qualified and motivated buyers. That being said in todays market a 2001 priced home moves quickly. For some reason going up is easier than going down.

  225. freedy says:

    the new gov. may be folding before he
    even gets into office. Trenton makes the
    world takes.

  226. justlistening says:

    Still alot of downward sentiment out there for NJ real estate on this board.

    Food for thought:

    With real estate so highly regionalized is there really ever a true bottom? No doubt people some people get some great deals.

    I remember reading this board back in Feb or so and I saw a Wyckoff listing that sold for 900 in ’06 that just closed for 500. May of you said it means a price adjustment for the whole town. Since then I haven’t seen a showstopper like that again. Actually I have seen similarly located properties selling for alot more.

    Tell me this. What is a good deal?

  227. Kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    lets look at a human for comparison….

    average american consumption (per year):
    Grain:600 lbs
    meat: 200 lbs

    kg carbon /lb:
    grain: 0.15kg
    meat:2.0 Kg

    (600*0.15) + (200*2.0) = 90+400 = 490 Kg carbon.

    This looks like more then the medium sized dog, but consider that the meat in most pet foods is the byproduct of human meat production and would otherwise be a waste product. I would argue that in that sense you could net out at least 60% of the carbon footprint from petfood meat since its actually increasing the efficiency of human meat production by utilizing waste products.
    If we follow that assumption then the medium dog is producing 50% of what the human is and 1/3 of what the annual gas consumption of the golf is.

    oh, and the SUV comparison:
    20 MPG @ 12K miles per year = 600*2.421 = 1452.6 Kg of carbon produced by its annual gas consumption. That about 2X the dogs carbon production assuming he eats only human grade meat and 6X the footprint of the dog if he eats alpo.

    That pet article is full of fail!
    http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y57/kb7rky/FARK%20Photos/failboat3.jpg

  228. Kettle1 says:

    Skeptic 226

    Is this bottom?

    ROFLMAO

  229. frank says:

    #234,
    “Give me back my money.”
    How about you give back the commission that you stole from people that bought homes from you that according to you are worth a lot less that they paid for? Talking about a huge crime. Let’s talk NAR.

  230. joyce says:

    Does anyone know the status of MLS 2692065?
    Thanks

  231. justlistening says:

    Skep (237) and others

    Out of curiosity, do you think about house price or monthly affordability?

  232. frank says:

    #240,
    “Still alot of downward sentiment out there for NJ real estate on this board.”

    Don’t get sucked in, this board is mostly negative, except me, in reality good towns get very good bids, bad towns (Newark, Orange, etc.) get no bids in this market.

  233. Kettle1 says:

    Jcer 238

    The late 90’s represented tremendous affordability,

    Gut check! the late 90′s represented a period when the median home prices was about 2.5X median household income. yes that was an affordable stable price level.

    But guess what, Incomes are dropping and debt loads have increased substantially since then. Due to decreasing incomes and a large increase in the average household debt servicing payments, the late 90′s prices will not be stable, unless debt loads magically disappear and incomes rise (opps that would mean substantial inflation and a new chapter 11 bankruptcy give away for the sheep).

    At current income and debt levels historically stable prices will probably be iin the ballpark of 20% below the stable prices of the late 90′s. And that assumes that unemployment doesnt get much worse then it already is and incomes dont drop much more.

    Dont forget that our dear leaders have told us to expect a higher base level of unemployment while the banks are no longer handing out free money and actually expect something resembling historical lending standards.

    You cant look at a year for a stable price, look at historic debt/income, mortgage/income ratio’s.

  234. 3b says:

    #246 Oh frank stop. Many prices in many good towns are back at 2003 levels in many cases lower.

  235. 3b says:

    #243 Nobody forced them to buy.

  236. 3b says:

    #238 And lets not forget property taxes in 2001 vs. now. In my town they increased by over 60%!!! in that time period.

  237. frank says:

    Home Sales Skyrocket, Backlog Clears

    The news from the housing sector continues to be excellent. The surge in sales in recent months was undoubtedly helped by the anticipated expiration of the tax credit for first-time buyers, but I don’t think we can dismiss this news entirely (not least because the credit has been extended). Sales are up no matter how you look at it. This market is now clearing, which means that prices have fully adjusted to the new realities. House prices are down and interest rates are down, making housing more affordable now than it has been in many decades. The inventory of homes for sale has shrunk dramatically, thus making room for all the homes that will be coming on the market as the result of the “second wave of foreclosures” that the world has been fretting about for most of the year.

    It’s extremely significant that the housing market has cleared to this extent. Prices are no longer falling, and that puts an end to the fears of a downward spiral that would undermine the balance sheets of the institutions holding mortgage-backed paper. It also restores confidence to the housing sector, as people realize that they are no longer trapped with a depreciating asset. Household balance sheets are again improving. Those who want to move to where there are more jobs, can. Life goes on, and things get better, and that’s the way it should be. A lot of the plans that got put on hold a year or so ago are now being put back on the drawing board.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/179403-home-sales-skyrocket-backlog-clears

  238. 3b says:

    #237 # 1 is pretty likely too, or at best a very slow decline in the stated 10% UE#

  239. Stu says:

    There is no bottom before the government stops printing money to buy bonds to purchase MBS which will eventually leave us trillions (yes that’s right) in debt from this program alone. Additionally, the tax credit needs to go. Finally, the gubmint needs to stop allowing banks to borrow at zero and loan at 5% (not to mention the fees they profit from).

    Could you only imagine what would happen if the government tap ran dry tomorrow?

    No, we are not at bottom. Sheyit, they can’t even stop the temporary (supposed) tax credit. Last deadline, they expanded it.

    Now can we get back to tires or skiing, or pet food carbon usage?

  240. 3b says:

    #251 frank Perhaps Mr. Grannis can tell us where exactly those more jobs are.

  241. Kettle1 says:

    SOrry stu,

    stories like that BS petfood thing annoy me given their epic level of idiocy

  242. 3b says:

    #240 There appears to be lots of houses available in Wyckoff, from 379K all the way up, more than 60 listings right before Christmas;plenty for everybody.

  243. 3b says:

    #253 Stu: The home buyer tax credit is going to become permananet by virtue of them just extending it right before it expires again.

  244. Stu says:

    Look at these other headlines from the author of Frank’s cited SA article:

    # Retail Sales Collapse, But Keep the News in Perspective
    on Jan 15, 2009

    # Trade Hits an Air Pocket but Will Likely Survive
    on Jan 14, 2009 • DRYS

    # Unemployment Numbers: Losses Were Awful, But Jobs Are a Lagging Indicator
    on Jan 11, 2009

    # Unemployment Claims Drop by 20%
    on Jan 09, 2009

    # Yesterday’s Sell-Off Is Not Worrisome
    on Jan 08, 2009

    # Rising T-Bill Yields Signal Growing Confidence in Economy
    on Jan 07, 2009 • TBT, TIP, TLT

    # Commodities Volatility Indicate Firming Demand, Rising Prices
    on Jan 07, 2009 • DBC, GSG, OIL

    # It’s Likely That Auto Sales Have Bottomed
    on Jan 06, 2009 • F, GMGMQ.PK, HMC

    # If Manufacturing Is So Bad, Why Did the Market Go Up?
    on Jan 04, 2009 • DIA, QQQQ, SPY

    # Narrowing TED Spread Says the Crisis Is Passing
    on Dec 30, 2008

    # The Brighter Side of Falling Home Prices
    on Dec 30, 2008

    # There is No Household Debt Crisis
    on Dec 30, 2008

    # In reality good towns get very good bids
    on Dec 22, 2009

    (I like that last one)

  245. skep-tic says:

    3b is right– the homebuyer tax credit is never going away. I also think low mortgage rates are here to stay for the long term, similar to Japan. Finally, using the 90s as a benchmark does not seem realistic to me. This is 20+ year old history by now. Today’s first time buyers were in elementary school then. They have grown up in a world where substantial indebtedness is the norm.

    The only thing discouraging that mindset right now is unemployment. That is a big detail, but I still think that the culture has not changed. When people get jobs again they will spend like there’s no tomorrow, just like before the crash.

  246. skep-tic says:

    my overall point is that you need to look at affordability in the context of the world as it is today and will be for the forseeable future, not try to project past conditions on the present.

  247. skep-tic says:

    #245

    “Skep (237) and others

    Out of curiosity, do you think about house price or monthly affordability?”

    both. I wish I could only say price, but I don’t have the means to be a cash buyer

  248. 3b says:

    #258 Stu: I like the next to last one too.

  249. Stu says:

    “Out of curiosity, do you think about house price or monthly affordability?”

    It is our main determination for whether we will rent or buy in Glen Ridge.

  250. 3b says:

    #260 skeptic: Maybe, but they have to get jobs that will enable them to be able to afford the monthly payment.

  251. Stu says:

    I miss Biluva. Where did he go? Frank bores me.

  252. Schumpeter says:

    biluva is strapped to a board somewhere.

  253. Stu says:

    Hey BC,

    Looking at the 5-year chart on gold, barring a miraculous short-term recovery in OUR economy, what do you think the odds are that we’ll get back down to 925-950 range within the next six months?

    My completely ill-advised odds are about 75%.

  254. Kettle1 says:

    Skeptic,

    The current debt orgy that allowed the 2000′s bubble was based on willy nilly securitization.

    While it may not go away what nation or bank is going to be buying AAA rated securities secured with subprime sludge? There is no more “prime” to speak of unless you either substantially drop prices or change the definition to include 0% down 6:1 income ratio’s and ignore credit scores.

    Regardless of whether or not debt slaves have become fond of their chains, we are very close to running out of greater fools to feed the beast, hence the extraordinary governmental intervention in the housing market.

    You forget that all that debt carries a substantial service rate. For people with large Credit card balances their debt servicing can approach the principle on a modest house.

    You also forget that we are a graying population and as such we will see a long term decline in RE demand across the board, from second homes to new construction, as well as a general reduction in SQFT.

    the government can delay reality for a long time, but at some point the coyote must look down.

    We will bottom somewhere around 2015 -2017

  255. confused in NJ says:

    Amazing how in the brave new world of America, Debt can well exceed Assets, and be considered a Success. They need to revise Accounting & Economics courses taught in school to incorporate Psychobabble.

  256. confused in NJ says:

    268.We will bottom somewhere around 2015 -2017

    Why not 2012?

  257. Shore Guy says:

    We have Barry calling from D.C. Go ahead caller:

    http://www.wtop.com/?nid=25&sid=1847027

  258. skep-tic says:

    Kettle– I don’t necessarily disagree with your individual points, just perhaps with the practical implications. I think we would all agree that the gov’t has done a surprisingly good job of propping this monster up and they show no signs of removing the punch bowl.

    The limit may be if/when the U.S. gov’t finally gets tapped out and who knows how long that will be in coming? Plus, when/if it does come, we are all f’d anyway. My increasing inclination is to live life as if the U.S. gov’t's massive stimulus is real and permanent which, barring the disaster scenario above, it shows every sign of being.

    We can argue till our faces are blue that housing would collapse if not for 4.75% morgages and 3.5% down, but as long as these are reality, we are just talking theory.

  259. Kettle1 says:

    confused 270,

    the housing demand due to a sudden upsurge in first time undead buyers will cause another little spike in the market and delay the bottom.

    it will take a few years for the undead to fully decompose hence causing demand to bottom sometime around 2015-2017

  260. Shore don't like a cloture-proof senate Guy says:
  261. Schumpeter says:

    The NJ housing market is dead and its corpse has been tossed off a cliff and is currently in freefall. To stretch the metaphor, once the corpse hits the ground, it will fester for 10, possibly 20 years.

    Nothing to do now but mop up the greasy spots.

  262. 3b says:

    #272 FHA ALL THE WAY!!!

  263. Kettle1 says:

    Skep.

    if not for 4.75% mortgages and 3.5% down….

    Even with that, the glacier that is the housing down trend will grind on.

  264. Shore Guy says:

    What a country:

    LAS VEGAS — The never-ending saga of the Las Vegas “Stripper-Mobile” will begin a new chapter in 2010 when the portable pole dancers embark on a coast-to-coast tour.

    A representative for the Déjà Vu Showgirls strip club told FOX5 the truck that once drove exotic dancers up and down the Las Vegas Strip is embarking on a nationwide tour to promote its brand.

    Video: ‘Stripper-Mobile’ Stirs Up Controversy

    [snip]

    http://www.fox5vegas.com/news/22029193/detail.html

  265. Essex says:

    275. Cashflow is king these days…and McMansions in the exburbs….so last decade.

  266. Schumpeter says:

    skep (272)-

    Housing has collapsed BECAUSE of these numbers. They are part and parcel evidence of a giant, systemic fraud.

  267. Shore Guy says:

    For Frank. Perhaps an old girlfriend is in one of t
    he photos?

    http://www.fox5vegas.com/slideshow/news/19982751/detail.html

  268. Shore Guy says:

    “McMansions in the exburbs”

    Rooming houses of the 2020s, only less well built than any past ones.

  269. Shore Guy says:

    Speaking of places that should be merged into another town:

    Home rule run amok
    December 21, 2009

    Interlaken’s elected officials had a golden opportunity to save money and take the lead in shared services or consolidation. Instead, they chose to move ahead with their ill-conceived plan to build a new police headquarters, ignoring citizen requests to put the matter to a vote and a fiscally prudent option encouraged by Allenhurst officials.

    Council President Elizabeth Brown said they need to move forward on bonding, and that “this is the responsible thing for the town of Interlaken.”

    No it’s not. The responsible thing, particularly with the pending retirement of police Chief Karen Sullivan, would be to get into a cost-saving shared services arrangement with Allenhurst and to abandon plans to build a $675,000 addition to borough hall to house the police department.

    At Thursday’s council meeting, held at a fire hall to accommodate the expected crowd, Allenhurst Mayor David McLaughlin encouraged the council to sit down with officials from his town to discuss sharing police services. That would give the two small towns — with a combined population of less than 1,600 — a leg up if municipal consolidation plans formulated by a state panel become mandatory or tied to state aid.

    A motion to table the vote on bonding for construction was shot down. In January, Brown, who decided not to seek re-election this year, will be replaced by Councilman-elect Robert White, who is against constructing a new police headquarters. Thus, the council decided to forge ahead now and pass a bond ordinance to fund the construction.

    It’s home rule run amok.

    snip

    http://www.app.com/article/20091221/OPINION01/912220305/1029/OPINION/Home+rule+run+amok

  270. Shore Guy says:

    Anyone thinking of heading to Bucks and commuting to work in Nj, beware, tolls (and perhaps backups) are on the way:

    Plans for new Pa.-NJ I-95 bridge include tolls
    THE ASSOCIATED PRESS • December 22, 2009

    NEW HOPE, PA. — Plans are moving forward for a new Interstate 95 bridge over the Delaware River between Pennsylvania and New Jersey and unlike the current bridge it would be tolled.

    snip

    http://www.app.com/article/20091222/NEWS03/91222081/Plans+for+new+Pa.-NJ+I-95+bridge+include+tolls

  271. Veto That says:

    What is all this talk about real estate today? have you all gone mad??

  272. Veto That says:

    For the record, 2015 is my bottom.
    We have another 10% price adjustment to go but basically, the majority of the price correction is behind us. The first 20% came down fast and then last 10% will grind along slowly. When its all said and done we’ll have a 45% price correction on an inflation adjusted basis in 2015.
    Bye the way, my crystal ball is telling me all this for fact.

  273. Veto That says:

    Shore, not to be rude buddy, but dont you work?
    Or are you a beach cleaner by trade?
    If i win the lottery im going to live the life that you have.

  274. Shore Guy says:

    Veto,

    Yes, I do indeed work.

  275. Veto That says:

    2015 is the bottom whether we get hyperinflation or deflation.
    rates will be adjusted by fed to cancel out any inflationary forces up or down. thats my hypothesis.

    Homes and debt have fallen out of favor for a while. We need a good decade of foreclosures to clean out the system and let people forget about the miseries of home ownership.

    When we do stabilize in 2015-16 we hopefully wont get another big bubble right away because hopefully the govt will have adopted some regulations to prevent people from using their homes as pots of gold. Let me say Hopefully a 3rd time.

    But anytime between 2012 and 2015 should be ok to buy if you can wait that long. Thats my guess, even though i may buy earlier. Sorry folks i dont think NJ prices will melt down 50-60%.

    Of course all of this assumes that we wont have another financial crisis or some type of extreme collapse and unemployment doesnt go much higher. Those extreme scenarios seem unlikely to me anyway.

  276. Kettle1 says:

    Veto,

    I got my dates from my magic 8 ball, and colorful stamp that tasted sort of bitter.

  277. confused in NJ says:

    Collapsed Lehman Pays Big Bonuses

    The Wall Street bank which collapsed last year plunging the world into a deeper financial crisis is paying generous bonuses and recruiting middle and back office staff to help administrators sort millions of transactions, the Financial Times reported Tuesday.

    Lehman’s European business is trying to stop employees defecting as it is helping administrators Pricewaterhouse Coopers reconcile transactions with clients and trading partners to determine what is owed or can be claimed.

    Last week, a judge overseeing Lehman’s US bankruptcy approved an extra $50 million in bonus pay-outs to 230 derivatives traders who are working to unwind the bank’s $10 billion portfolio.

    “We’ve made our strategy and reasoning clear to our creditors,” Steven Pearson, a partner at PwC and one of the four joint administrators for the dead bank’s European arm, told the Financial Times.

    “We need to keep up with the market and we have to bear in mind that staff here have much narrower career development options than at other banks.”

    Any bonuses, Pearson added, were linked to the administrators’ focus on maximising the money returned to creditors.

    Lehman, which had 5,300 staff in Europe when it collapsed in September 2008, currently employs about 440 people for its European operations, higher than the 360 PwC expected to need nine months ago.

    They are trying to untangle and value millions of trades on Lehman’s books, some of which are potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars to either side of the deal, the paper wrote.

  278. relo says:

    Trying to verify dealer representations anyone w/knowledge/opinion or auction-involved friends (John):

    2007 Lexus LS 460L 30k miles, excellent condition. What is wholesale value? (yes, I know what the various websites say). Thanks in advance.

  279. Veto That says:

    Also, i think Frank is correct about something for once. When this is all said and done, some weaker towns and inner cities will have taken a 40-50% price cut while some quality towns will have only taken a 15-20% cut.
    Sorry but thats why you pay more to live in the better towns – the people are more stable financially and so they have a more stable economy as a result and they dont get laid off as much or as fast.
    But some of the really really affluent towns may take a huge cut to prices too, i dont really know that market very well at all.

  280. Veto That says:

    “I got my dates from my magic 8 ball”

    Ket,

    You hacked into the NAR mainframe again didnt you?

    Dammit. I told you not to do that.

    you are going to get us all pinched.

  281. Kettle1 says:

    Veto

    Dewey told me to.

  282. lisoosh says:

    Veto, think of this – higher paid people when laid off are LESS likely than lower paid people to be able to replicate their previous salary.

    And “better towns” costing more has no relevancy to percentage drop. So the $million town drops to a $600k town and the $100k town becomes a $60k town.

    One is still “more desirable” and far more expensive, same drop.

  283. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [139] first

    Janet Laing

  284. Stu says:

    “Sorry but thats why you pay more to live in the better towns – the people are more stable financially and so they have a more stable economy as a result and they dont get laid off as much or as fast.
    But some of the really really affluent towns may take a huge cut to prices too, i dont really know that market very well at all.”

    I don’t believe this at all.

    What would you consider Montclair?

    We are down 31% already, or at least my home is, and I’m being conservative.

    Those who live in the haughty towns are simply in denial of this reality.

    And it’s not just my home. It’s the one across the street, and up the block from me and on the block behind me too.

    Veto, are you a recent buyer? If so, I’ll bet you the appraisal fee that your home is worth 30% less than it was during the peak. I’m almost willing to wager 35% by July. No one wants to admit their losses. Look at Frank.

  285. Essex says:

    In this economy if you are laid off you are screwed.

  286. Kettle1 says:

    Veto,

    No one will be spared, the reaper cares not for your status or street address.

  287. ruggles says:

    “What would you consider Montclair?”

    Failed social experiment.

  288. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [194] stu

    What are you doing over the break? We are planning a tune up in the poconos (just booked our flight to Park City last night—that is the big trip).

    Wife and I may split a ticket because of D2. So Gator can hang out with the baby and us. And when D1 and your little guy get tired, we can go play on the real slopes.

  289. 3b says:

    #295 Veto: Lots of wannabe towns, and wannabe people living in those towns. Never assume those towns will necessarily take less of a hit. Lots of foreclosures in Saddle River, Wyckoff, Ramsey etc. In fact one could argue some of the so called less desirable towns could be more stable, due to less keeping up with the Jones’s.

    As far as unemployment there are more than a few so called experts who believe Unemployment will start to rise again in 2010, and peak at around 11% before resuming a slow decline.

  290. John says:

    The wholesale values on line are a good starting point but they are around 60 days out of date and cars depreciate around $500 a month. Also on line they fail to take into account, full owners, manual with all records add around $200 bucks, and color is important, for instance black station wagons remind people of hearses so they are like 3k less cause of color. Also if it is a rent a car or has any bit of dubious title that is a problem. Also real dealers want untouched cars. A non-detailed no touch-up paint car also goes for a little more, detailing, compounding and touch-up paint hides a lot of flaws. Another factor is float, BMW leasing, GMAC leasing often gives dealers a 30 or 60 day float upon lease termination. Meaning dealer is not paying interest on the loan to take possesion of car for first 30 or 60 days. Finally how much is left on factory warranty. KBB might list two 2007 BMW 5 series with 30K miles as same price, but one could have in-service date of August 2006 and other in service date of July 2007. 11 months warranty on a high end car can be worth one thousand. If the car is totaly mint, has all records and has clean title it is most likely gong for $1K under KBB wholesale at auction. I did not get a great deal on my BMW at auction this time cause is was a one owner garaged non-smoker Greenwich car with all records in glove box being sold by BNW of Greenwich at auction. Only reason my BMW was at auction was cause he had more than 4 2006 5 series in inventory and my BMW was on lot 60 days and he was about to be assessed with an interest rate charge. My wagon I got at auction I got an amazing deal, but I had no records and floor mats and spare was missing and it was in a minor accident that was repaired. I took a chance with it and got it for 3K under wholesale. High end Japanese and German cars in mint condition usually don’t go much below KBB wholesale. American cars that are volumne leaders, aka Taurus will sometimes have 500 of them at a single auction so it becomes a commodity. That Lexus is a smoking hot car .

    relo says:
    December 22, 2009 at 3:28 pm
    Trying to verify dealer representations anyone w/knowledge/opinion or auction-involved friends (John):

    2007 Lexus LS 460L 30k miles, excellent condition. What is wholesale value? (yes, I know what the various websites say). Thanks in advance.

  291. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [200] kettle

    Best part of tactical extraction from Brazil is no extradiction. They can bring charges for the extraction and the dad can flip them the bird.

    (which will be poetic justic because the Brazilians once arrested an american commericial pilot for allegedly flipping someone off—he was holding a piece of paper with his fingers and they took it be the bird even though it was upside down).

    (BTW, we are in an au pair search and have heard nothing but tales of woe concerning Brazilian au pairs. Based on what I have heard, I will never hire a Brazilian to work in my house. On it maybe, but not in it).

  292. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [296] veto

    “You hacked into the NAR mainframe again didnt you?

    Dammit. I told you not to do that.

    you are going to get us all pinched.”

    Apparently, he also raided their office and took their bitter stamps. You know, the ones with Mickey and Goofy on them?

    Mickey and Goofy stamps: That explains some of the NAR predictions and ad campaigns.

  293. relo says:

    306: John, thanks for the response. Dealer is giving some push back on the KBB etc. as it now comes w/ AWD which is not an option on the ’07. The ’10 model is difficult to find at the moment and there’s not much leverage other than “ok, pass”. I’ve got them about where I’d be comfortable on purch/trade-in.

    FWIW, the car isn’t mine. Just part of the friendly service…

  294. morpheus says:

    nom at 307:
    of course it depends on what type of services you are buying.

    Au pair story–John story please!

  295. Veto That says:

    “Veto, are you a recent buyer?”

    Stu, im a renter and holding out on buying since 2004-05.

    ive been waiting for blood in the streets but have only seen measly 20% discounts so far. i hope you are right.

  296. Veto That says:

    “one could argue some of the so called less desirable towns could be more stable, due to less keeping up with the Jones’s.”

    3b, yes, good point.

  297. Essex says:

    Montclair is fine unless you bought at peak…and therefore are way underwater and overtaxed….Massive older homes in need a major work/rennovation and probably sucking huge bills for taxes. These are sucker plays. A nice modest place and a little cash reserve — ideal.

  298. Essex says:

    Towns without trains seem to be the ones that are “less desirable” and if you need to get to NYC. They might be. In fact you can save big by not being in a train town. I also have a feeling the demographics will shift and ex-bankers try to wrangle a living wage…and ex-pharma folks who were lower rated players in their firm start to sell their asses on the street.

  299. Veto That says:

    “they have a more stable economy.”

    You are all making some decent points.

    More educated people make more money and enjoy higher rates of employment. We can all agree to this because there is lots of solid quantitative evidence to back it up.
    And it explains why better towns are higher priced to begin with.

    but you guys might be right about prices moving up and down by roughly the same precentage amount whether in good or bad town. That might be the part where im wrong.
    I dont know for sure. Like i said its just a guess that im pulling out of my back pocket based on what i see.

    For example, my town now is middle affluent. Prices have barely budged maybe 10-20% since 2005-06 peak. Meanwhile, the town next to us is slightly more blue collar, and prices there are down 20-35% since peak. and then the next town next to that is trenton with even lower demographics and they are down more like 30-45% sinc peak.
    But im keeping an open mind and hope that prices in decent neighborhoods have alot more correcting than i expect.

  300. Schumpeter says:

    veto (291)-

    Every day, my experiences with banks, tapped-out borrowers and the RE industry convinces me that we face a near-term future of nothing but extreme scenarios.

    “Of course all of this assumes that we wont have another financial crisis or some type of extreme collapse and unemployment doesnt go much higher. Those extreme scenarios seem unlikely to me anyway.”

  301. scribe says:

    Since Christmas is coming, for Christmas I want an especially colorful story from John for Christmas eve.

    Hit it, John …

  302. John says:

    My level of service is like in Californication when he goes and buys a new porsche. That saleslady knew how to close.

    morpheus says:
    December 22, 2009 at 4:25 pm
    nom at 307:
    of course it depends on what type of services you are buying.

    Au pair story–John story please!

  303. scribe says:

    by the way, do we have any real hackers in the inner circle here?

    I need some info …

  304. John says:

    Since I am about to stock the pond with brown trout and grab a tall boy for the train I have to wait till tommorrow to rant and rave, scribe you start I finish. No squirters please.

    scribe says:
    December 22, 2009 at 4:50 pm
    Since Christmas is coming, for Christmas I want an especially colorful story from John for Christmas eve.

    Hit it, John …

  305. Schumpeter says:

    (306)-

    I’m now convinced John is either a repo guy or runs a tote-the-note used car lot. Or both.

  306. Schumpeter says:

    veto (315)-

    The people in the blue ribbon towns just need longer to burn through their severance, credit, reserves, savings, etc.

    When they tap all that out & can’t replace their former incomes, game over. I’m having several phone conversations a week with the first wave of people in this group who are beginning to go under. Trust me, they are not pleasant…and, the sense of entitlement and rage in these people assure me that they will do the dumbest possible things that will result in their houses losing the maximum possible value.

    Hang in there. No one will be spared.

  307. Essex says:

    “Since I am about to stock the pond with brown trout…” — Is that code for take a crap??

  308. make money says:

    JOhn (306),

    Your street smarts and knowledge about everything and anything are second to none.

  309. Schumpeter says:

    scribe (317)-

    Something tells me this will involve John & Tiger tag-teaming some skanks on Queens Blvd.

  310. Laurie says:

    #207…the kids name is Elian Gonzalez and since I have Cuban inlaws and family in Miami I will never stop hearing about it. Am I Cuban…no.

  311. Essex says:

    325. You sir are only feeding the ego. Carry on.

  312. Schumpeter says:

    We should all chip in a few paragraphs and write the story for John.

    He must be under great stress right now, trying to come up with the next contrarian move to make for when Bill Gross succeeds in crashing the long end of the yield curve.

  313. relo says:

    320; John Story. Height matters?

    grab a tall boy for the train

  314. Veto That says:

    “323 – I’m having several phone conversations a week with the first wave of people in this group who are beginning to go under. Trust me, they are not pleasant”

    Shump – good stuff as always. Its nice to know the market matches the economy, even though it doesnt always reflect in asking prices.

  315. Essex says:

    Shame + entitlement = Murder/Suicide.

  316. Schumpeter says:

    Truth be told, this outfit is broke. No secret, ManU will be the next to fall.

    Pfft goes the soccer bubble:

    “Fernando Torres has admitted he is concerned at the lack of funds available to Rafael Benitez to turn the club’s season around – but is fully behind his manager.

    Liverpool have already lost seven games this season – compared to just two in 2008-09 – and have been knocked out of the Champions League. It is a widely held belief that the Reds do not have enough quality running through the club to seriously challenge for the title, especially with the summer departure of Xabi Alonso.

    However, with Liverpool’s finances causing serious concern – the debt is around £240 million – it is unclear if Benitez will have anything to spend in the January window, a situation which could place their hopes of qualifying for the Champions League next season – and even the Europa League – in some doubt.”

    http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=717005&sec=england&cc=5901

  317. Schumpeter says:

    veto (331)-

    I don’t even look at asking prices. I spend less than three minutes a day glancing active inventory.

    If you do this, your perspective will change.

  318. Zack says:

    #311

    Why do you call 20% measly??

    That is a 100K discount on a 500K house that you will not get for 400k.

    Tell me, how long does it take you to save 100K from your current job?

  319. Zack says:

    not get for 400k = now get for 400k

  320. 3b says:

    clot: I think this would be bulldozerable. Do You? All for a wonderful asking price of 316k;subject to bank approval of course!!

    Last sales price 250K in 2001 (it was over priced back than too). Guess the owners heloc’d it.

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2951880&id=999999

  321. Wag says:

    Any chance for a post holiday GTG? I need a drink.

  322. Essex says:

    I voted we Bowl. But no one seemed interested.

  323. Essex says:

    I guess no one wants to risk John handling their balls.

  324. Wag says:

    I will lift nothing heavier than a bottle of McCallan 18.

  325. Essex says:

    We should all see Greg Allman at the Wiltern then.

  326. Schumpeter says:

    3b (337)-

    Cruise missile.

  327. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [325] make

    I know who John is. He is on those Dos Equis commercials. He is

    THE MOST INTERESTING MAN IN THE WORLD.

  328. Essex says:

    Tru Dat Nom. Fascinating. At least on paper.

  329. Veto That says:

    “Why do you call 20% measly??”

    Zack, i was originally hoping for 40% discount and at 20% homes still seem overalued quite a bit.

    im grateful for the 20%.

  330. Veto That says:

    “how long does it take you to save 100K from your current job?”

    I cant really count the 100K as savings in my pocket under your scenario because i remember thinking i 2005 that i could never buy at those inflated prices, not even if i wanted to because whatever i could afford would be so small and old that i would just never do it.

  331. sas says:

    news headline tells me “strong data on housing market”

    yeah right jack.
    they told you to buy now or be priced out forever, told WMD, told you its a so called “jobless” recovery.

    don’t be a sap.
    SAS

    ps. they also told you in one will fall, they all will fall and you bought that one too.

  332. sas says:

    “they also told you IF one will fall”

    SAS

  333. sas says:

    “Unemployment funds going ‘absolutely broke’
    40 state programs to be emptied by the jobless tsunami within two years”

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34519544/ns/business-washington_post

  334. gary says:

    From 2001 to 2006, house prices were jacked up 88% while salaries went up a total of 24%. You tell me if we’re at a f*cking bottom.

  335. sas says:

    “while salaries went up a total of 24%. You tell me if we’re at a f*cking bottom”

    and worker production went up at a good clip. basically, you working harder for less, and the bubble hid this little diddy from you.

    SAS

  336. sas says:

    and credit replaced the middle class.
    take away the credit, take away the middle class.

    Hello Potterville…
    SAS

  337. grim says:

    Schumpeter says:
    December 22, 2009 at 10:54 am (Edit)

    My guess is that Montclair is about to unexpectedly develop a 3 mm homeless shelter.

    You gotta expect that town’s council will vote within the next year or two to make the entire municipality a “safe haven for the homeless”, or some such nonsense.

    Right on cue Clot.

    From the Record:

    North Jersey homeless to get more help

    New services are planned to help the homeless in 2010, a response to burgeoning numbers of those without shelter or food.

    Passaic County plans to unveil early next year a “10-Year Plan to End Homelessness” that calls for the creation of 600 new units of affordable housing and to provide education and other services.

    The county is also the first in the state to create a Trust Fund for the Homeless that will pay for housing construction, rehabilitation or financial help for people who could lose their homes.

    The money for the program will be collected through a $3 fee added to real-estate transactions done by the surrogate, county clerk and sheriff’s department.

  338. gary says:

    The proletarians don’t even realize that they’re being bled one drop at a time. At the hands of the incredible Dr. Phibes, they just sit there stunned and bewildered as the good doctor sucks the life out of them drop by drop as he chuckles uncontrollably.

  339. grim says:

    MLS#: 2708303

    I want this.

  340. safeashouses says:

    I’m going bowling this week. No pins will be spared.

  341. still_looking says:

    356 grim

    link?

    sl

  342. Stu says:

    Killer home Grim, but what do you make of this in the listing:

    “DO NOT APPROACH THE DRIVEWAY OR ENTER THE PROPERTY WITHOUT THE LISTING AGENT WITH YOU.”

  343. Stu says:

    Grim,

    You only want it for the bidet. Be honest!

  344. Essex says:

    360. Yes! Now that is nice…..

  345. grim says:

    I’d teach my dog to drink from it.

  346. NJGator says:

    Nom 304 – No can do. All I have for “break” this year is the 3 1/2 day weekends for Christmas and New Year’s. I am working the rest of next week. A good NY Jew covers so the kids can go home for Christmas.

  347. relo says:

    361: Has Clot already established a hard perimeter?

    DO NOT APPROACH THE DRIVEWAY OR ENTER THE PROPERTY WITHOUT THE LISTING AGENT WITH YOU.

  348. A.West says:

    I just learned that my sister in law has bought her 3rd house in the Atlanta area. She does plan to sell one or two of the earlier ones. What surprised me is that she is financing it all with an interest-only. Basically a floating rate loan paying Libor plus maybe 100bp. Somehow UPS must be underwriting the credit risk, because I didn’t think mortgages got written up like this any more. She says all the management uses this special deal to finance their homes in gated communities. I mentioned that I expected real estate to fall further – as interest rates rise over the coming years, and incomes stagnating, people simply won’t be able to pay as much. She told me I was scaring her with that kind of talk. She thought everyone had access to such loans.

  349. Sean says:

    Funny thing about skiing, usually can get some other couple to go, but this year cannot get anyone to go which is unusual, especially since the prices are rock bottom for airfare and hotel. Last year was Aspen with another couple we like, this year I can’t give away a trip to anyone, and I want to go to Vancouver/Whistler for a Feb Trip to the Olympics. I have always wanted to watch the ski jump. Going to be a superb deal this year if anyone want to go to Vancouver, and it is not even close to sold out.

    Credit destruction has to have a hand in this. I am using miles and knack for cheapness that never fails, the rest of the country well they are just f*U*cked with no credit and no cash.

  350. still_looking says:

    360 Stu,

    Thanks!

    sl

  351. House Whine says:

    367- There are some that still do have the credit and the cash but have no inclination to use or spend it right now. Times are just too uncertain to spend on extra vacations. And, a lot of us may have the money but can’t get the time off from work for fear of falling behind at work. Really, kind of sad.

  352. sas says:

    “with no credit and no cash.”

    and there goes the middle class.

    now, aren’t you glad there is serotonin reuptake inhibitor in the water? otherwise, we may have some problems.

    drink up.
    SAS

  353. sas says:

    next up..
    Statin-fortified drinking water.

    lol, you gotta love it.

    SAS

  354. MSP says:

    Schump,

    From last night..

    Just met with a dude from Bernardsville. Over 600K, spread across two loans, both nine months in arrears, on a house that might draw 375K tops.

    $375 in B’ville? Any idea where and what kind of house? I’ve been looking in B’ville for a few years and the only homes listed in that range are garbage.

  355. Essex says:

    Don’t knock em til you try em SAS….

  356. Essex says:

    372. I thought the same thing…at that price it would be a shanty in that town.

  357. NJGator says:

    A real estate related story of the goodness of the human spirit from a friend’s blog. SL – What kind of karma awaits the selling agent?

    I’m writing this a little short of breath as a result of a morning conversation with my friend Tom who has just been diagnosed with brain cancer.

    Tom is about my age, and the cancer struck out of nowhere. As he described it, he was having coffee in a coffee shop, when his foot fell asleep. He kicked a pole next to him a few times in an attempt to wake it up. Next thing he knew, he was coming to in the hospital. Apparently, he had collapsed. The doctors, upon testing, found two tumors in his head. So, off to exploratory surgery, and then the news: brain cancer. While the doctors are unwilling to give a definite estimate of his life expectancy after chemo and radiation, the range of 1-2 years was mentioned.

    The news from him on our call this morning hit me like a punch to the gut. However, this punch was nothing compared to the one-two punch he has received from the diagnosis and the situation below.

    This devastating diagnosis came to Tom just as he was forging ahead with a new chapter in his life. He had, just two weeks before, placed an offer on a condo in Hallandale, Florida. It’s a fixer-upper, and part of an estate. He’s handy and creative. Making it home would be a massive, but pleasurable project for him. The offer was accepted, and he had a great deal on the table. The above collapse happened after the offer was accepted, but before inspections and the closing. To be clear, the condo is not yet his.

    As you might imagine, given the diagnosis of brain cancer, purchasing and renovating a condo are not in Tom’s cards. Adding insult to injury, he’s self-employed, and without health insurance. (Please, America, let’s fix this!) The cost of treatment will be immense, and take any and all of his current resources. He will be destitute at the end by all calculations. It is possible for him to end up as a ward of the state. So, a representative from the title company placed a call on his behalf to the selling agent, updating them on the news, and asking to back out of the deal on the table. Here’s the kicker: the selling agent called back and said, “I ‘Googled’ the type of brain cancer he has, and he can live for another year. We’re not letting him out of the deal.” ARE YOU SERIOUS?!

  358. Shore Guy says:

    “’m now convinced John is either a repo guy or runs a tote-the-note used car lot. Or both”

    Funny you should say this. I have long thought an F&I guy for a dealer.

  359. PGC says:

    #274 Shore,

    I’ll be interested to see what the final payback to Liberman will be.

  360. PGC says:

    #274 Shore,

    I’ll be interested to see what the final payback to Liberman will be.

  361. PGC says:

    #305 3b

    Wyckoff maybe the Sparta of BC. Grim Ridgewood seems to be burning through inventory. Are prices holding?

  362. Shore Guy says:

    “recently recieved a collection notice for an unpaid verzion account”

    Ket,

    I went around and around with them for two years over an account I NEVER had with them, but they kept charging me for, and writing off, then recharging, then writing off, then, well, you get the picture.

  363. PGC says:

    #333 Scumpt,

    The Scousers are the odds on favorites, but they always have future marketing revenue to leverage off. I think it will be the likes of an Al Fayed Fulham or Spurs that will pull a shock default.

  364. PGC says:

    #356 Grim

    Ok now I have to go watch “A Clockwork Orange”

  365. still_looking says:

    Gator, 375

    Gawd. I hope that piece of real estate shit gets it worse.

    I’m sorry about your friend. I can’t even imagine the sadness and anger this must bring you.

    My animosity towards the corruption that is our government grows daily. I keep fantasizing that ordinary people will wake up and fight back but it doesn’t seem to be even remotely likely.

    I wish I had a job that would enable me to be off the grid for good. :(

    sl

  366. still_looking says:

    PGC 382

    I Netflixed it about a week or so ago. Wound up fast forwarding through most of the movie, got bored mostly and honestly failed to understand any meaning behind it…

    Maybe someone could explain it to me… I’ve searched reviews and they don’t make a whole lot of sense to me.

    Help?

    sl

  367. PGC says:

    #356 Grim
    Same house different realtor. Whats the history?

    http://www.housebeautifulnj.com/idx/residential/2708303/details.html

  368. PGC says:

    #384 Still

    It is very deep and philosophical. I’ll try and dig up a good explanation, I can’t do it justice here.

  369. chicagofinance says:

    I had to go back and see what 139 was. On the initial read, I thought Nom was disclosing the person to whom he lost his virginity. I thought it highly inappropriate.

    299.Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    December 22, 2009 at 3:43 pm
    [139] first
    Janet Laing

  370. chicagofinance says:

    Today was Donnie day. Also I got my picture taken with Starks on the center of the court.

  371. Schumpeter says:

    sl (384)-

    You get all the ultra-violence you need at work, I suspect.

  372. Schumpeter says:

    PGC (381)-

    Spurs are solid; they have a big cash position, even after buying the world last Summer. My understanding is that they also are still strong enough to go ahead with construction on the new White Hart Lane. Levy is one rich dude.

    Fulham is a little gold mine for Fayed. The team has always been run on a tight budget and thrives on underpaid, overachieving players. Hodgson is also an incredible gaffer.

    Ever been to Craven Cottage? That place is a British cross between Fenway Park and a decrepit minor league stadium. The place is falling apart, and ticket prices are an outrage.

  373. Schumpeter says:

    Even a damn Fulham replica jersey is over $100. You can buy two Chelski, ManU or even Barca for that price.

  374. Schumpeter says:

    10 yr at 3.74%. The bond vigilantes are back. And they mean business.