Tue 2 Feb 2010
From the Philly Inquirer:
Affordable-housing changes pushed in New Jersey
A plan to eliminate the state Council on Affordable Housing and put towns in charge of their own housing obligations is necessary to streamline an unwieldy bureaucracy, supporters said yesterday.
But as a Senate committee began hearing testimony on the proposal, opponents said it would deliver a serious setback to efforts to increase the number of affordable homes in New Jersey.
The housing bill, which drew a large crowd to a hearing yesterday, would move many of the council’s powers to the state Planning Commission.
“So much money goes down the drain in terms of all these planning mechanisms that’s not going into affordable housing,” said Sen. Ray Lesniak (D., Union), who sponsored the bill with Sen. Christopher “Kip” Bateman (R., Somerset).
…
Affordable-housing activists held a news conference before the hearing to say the measure would roll back New Jersey’s affordable-housing policies by 35 years and exacerbate racial and socioeconomic segregation.The council was created under the Fair Housing Act of 1985, after state Supreme Court rulings that each of New Jersey’s 566 municipalities has a constitutional obligation to provide a “fair share” of the region’s need for low- and moderate-income housing.
A 2008 revision to COAH’s Third Round rules established a need for an additional 115,000 affordable housing units to be built in New Jersey by 2018 and increased the ratio of how many such units need to be built for every market-rate unit and new job created.
Towns, which were required to submit plans on how they would comply with the increased obligations, widely contested the state’s accuracy in calculating the number of affordable housing units for which they were responsible. Dozens joined the New Jersey League of Municipalities in a still-unresolved legal challenge to the rules.
…
The bill also would allow the restoration of certain Regional Contribution Agreements (RCAs), which had allowed wealthier towns to pay poorer communities so they could transfer their affordable-housing obligations.
…
Nicole Plett, a member of the New Jersey Regional Coalition, spoke out against such agreements, saying they concentrate poverty in cities such as Trenton, Perth Amboy, and Camden, and continue to make New Jersey one of the most economically and racially segregated states.
…
Gov. Christie has said he wants to “gut” COAH, and the proposed legislation bears some similarities to recommendations made in a report last month by his transition team.
From the Record:
Real estate giant in talks to save Xanadu
The $2 billion Meadowlands Xanadu project, stalled for more than a year, may have found $500 million in construction funding it needs to open.
Billionaire Stephen Ross — whose Related Companies real estate firm is a major player in Manhattan development projects — has been in negotiations with Xanadu developer Colony Capital, as well as New Jersey state officials, about becoming a partner in the project, according to three sources familiar with the negotiations. The sources said Monday that a formal announcement could come this week.
If the Ross negotiations come to fruition, it’s expected that Xanadu — perhaps with a new name and a new look — could open before the end of 2010. The mix of entertainment and retail components is not expected to change dramatically under Related. A spokeswoman for the company was not available for comment Monday.
“I just hope he starts with the outside,” said state Sen. Weinberg, D-Teaneck, a longtime critic of Xanadu’s exterior. “I’d also be disappointed if there is so much retail that we don’t get what we were originally promised. But that said, I do hope, after the infrastructure improvements we’ve done around the site that we see something develop that helps the complex be an economic engine.”
Been a while since I posted some Warren, so here goes:
From New Jersey Newsroom:
Is it time to dump New Jersey munis?
Maybe it’s a good time to lighten up on any New Jersey municipal bonds or municipal bond funds you own. Or dump them altogether.
One smart money manager, Scott Noyes, CFA, CFP, president of Noyes Capital Management in New Vernon, points out that some of the state’s municipalities are in financial trouble, which may lead to their ratings getting downgraded by credit-rating companies. A downgrading usually means the bonds will lose some value. And so will owners of those bonds.
Noyes makes a strong case.
“Due to the decline in property values and loss of income-tax revenues,” he has written, “municipal bond ratings for New Jersey towns are being reduced at a faster rate than any other state in the nation, according to Bloomberg news.”
In early December, Moody’s downgraded some debt issued by Woodbridge Township, the state’s sixth-largest municipality, from Aa3 to A1. The rating for a new Irvington bond was lowered from Baa3 to Ba1, a notch below investment grade.
“Cities across the state are facing looming budget shortfalls, service cuts, and staff layoffs,” he reports. “Pension liabilities are a growing problem. The good times are over for New Jersey municipalities.”
Xanadu: More than a destination…an eyesore!
Jersey Gardens is just down the Turnpike, and the entire 4/17 retail corridor is a few exits up. I don’t understand the point about opening a mediocre facility at 50% capacity.
Good point. Seems like a typically ill conceived plan. But if you can get over the PCBs, that whole area might be the next dream Location for new homes.
Ill conceived, eh? You mean like financing *another* casino in failing AC?
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. Senate committee backs stimulus bill extending tax incentives to businesses, developers
Projects that get financial help through a state stimulus law — including a struggling Atlantic City casino project and a university development — would get extra protection under changes a Senate committee approved yesterday.
The bill would amend a law passed over the summer that included development incentives, extending tax incentives to private developments leased to public colleges and preventing residents from voting down projects that get state stimulus money.
The legislation would help a $2.5 billion casino project proposed by Revel Entertainment that is looking for hundreds of millions in incentives through the state Economic Development Authority.
A union representing workers at other Atlantic City casinos, Unite Here Local 54, had backed a referendum to prevent the casino from getting the funding, but the city rejected it. The union says Revel would drive two to four other casinos out of business while getting an unfair advantage.
“As many jobs as you get, you lose,” union president Bob McDevitt said. “It’s a no-win situation for the state.”
Unemployment to stay above 8% until 2015, ouch. Won’t return to 5% until 2019?
From CR:
Obama Administration Unemployment Forecast
#7
Welcome to the “new normal”. Wow.
More like a lost decade.
re xanadu: If its not going to be a casino, and they insist on retail, it needs to be the best damn outlet center the northeast has ever seen.
Good riddance COAH.
One of the worst, least effective, and most fraught with unintended consequence pieces of social engineering legislation around, which is saying alot.
Regardless of its intentions it became an unholy alliance between ‘activists’ who raised funds by auctioning off the ability to abrogate towns’ rights and developers.
If anyone thinks COAH was used for housing that would actually shelter the underprivileged in the suburbs, think again.
Most poor could not get to/from the suburbs and if here could not afford it because of the other costs.
COAH turned into a developers’ dream, though. Basically if a town did not want (and its zoning did not permit) a large multi-unit development all the developer needed to do was ’set aside’ a de minimis number of units for COAH and the State would come in and force the town to permit the development.
We have a lovely (yeah, right) 55 unit new condo development smack in the middle of what once were pristine woods that we spent ten years fighting. Courts ruled COAH trumped our zoning. We had to permit it.
The developer of course got to sell the 90% of non-COAH units at market and keep the proceeds. $1.1m each.
Every developer has this maneuver in his playbook.
Even worse are COAH’s other discriminatory regulations:
In COAH-land for every new person above the poverty line that THEORETICALLY could move to town, accommodation (tribute) must be paid to COAH to ‘enable’ funding an underprivileged person the opportunity.
Here are but a few examples I encountered since I’ve been on our town’s Board of Adjustment:
Try doing something with your yard if you have a ’steep slope’. Can’t. Not even plant new trees on it. No joke. We had a resident in front of us for months for a variance because she planted decorative bushes on her steep slope thus ‘disturbing’ it. Conversely, our town is on the hook to pay COAH for dozens of affordable housing units that will never be built becuase we have so much land that may be developed to house regular citizens - all of it steep slopes which by statute can’t be disturbed. Still have to pay COAH.
Or how about the fee now associated with every piece of new construction or major remodeling done? Check it out. Go down to your town hall, tell them you are doing major new construction on your house and ask what fees are associated with it. You will now pay 1-2% of the construction costs in new fees to cover the amount COAH is charging your town. You see, when you knock down an old house and build a new one you may be able to house more regular citizens so COAH collects a fee to ‘provide for’ more underprivileged housing to keep the ‘balance’. Doesn’t matter that your same family is living there befoire and after, COAH needs its cut. That’s great for houing prices. Once again, it lands on your back. Because you’re rich and privileged.
Or, now one of my favorites given how ratables can afect taxes. New employer coming to town? Better be careful. If a business opens up your town is required to do a calculation based on the number of employees to determine how many new residents may need to move to town to support that business and what percentage ’should’ be underprivileged. The hypothetical number of underprivileged need to be housed and, whoops, another payment by your town from your taxes to COAH to fund some theoretical migration that doesn’t even exist. Understand, the housing units won’t ever actually built. You just have to pay COAH.
Great way to get businesses in town to offset rising tax rates and lower unemployment. Charge them a fee for people they may hire. That had to come directly from Left’s playbook because it makes so much sense.
The Corleones only wish they could have been this efficient in their extortion.
RIP COAH.
Cant wait to hear Christies plan to curb the 8 billion deficit. Heres what other states are doing.
Massive Layoffs Coming in NYC, Nevada, California, Colorado, Arizona, Everywhere
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/massive-layoffs-coming-in-nyc-nevada.html
with unemployment on going at these levels
how does housing come back to life?
Heloc’s will never be the same.
but NJ, so near to NYC, can’t happen here.
Layoff’s in a NJ muni, just about impossible
the unions have had their way ,, for how long
40 years? Ya, can’t cut me or my sick days,vacation days, pension,let the taxpayer pay.
Anyone know where I can get some CDS on Irvington’s bonds?
Irvington bonds lol. Short the police force and go long the national guard.
Metals looking good again. Hope you bought on the dip.
Al (16)-
SRS’ dip below $8 has triggered my insatiable desire to day trade it. Will dance with that until the music stops.
I have breakfast in a group with Kip Bateman every Wed. I’d like to think some of my feeling about COAH have informed his thinking (but I’m sure he had those same thoughts way before me).
COAH sucks. Good riddance.
But what are the towns going to do with
the lower income people who want to stay or
come into town?
its for the children to get into a good school with high test scores.
I too have difficulty understanding the forecasts of a housing rebound in the face of amost certain protracted unemployment.
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/108666/a-quick-peek-at-the-retirement-houses-of-tomorrow?mod=fidelity-livingretirement
On affordable housing changes…
“Quick Peek at the Retirement Homes of Tomorrow”
when does the spring buying season kick in?
that will be the key
do we have enough inventory to satisfy the
pent up demand?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/01/AR2010020103527.html
Washington Post - “Rising FHA default rate foreshadows crush of foreclosures”
Clot/Grim - Is this what you are seeing?..more creditworthy borrowers?
“As their losses from 2007 and 2008 go bad and clear off of the FHA’s books, agency officials said, losses are expected to taper off, aided by the housing market’s anticipated recovery and an influx of more creditworthy borrowers, who have flocked to the FHA’s home-owner program in the past year.”
http://www.stumblingontruth.com/#
Good essay on too big to fail and political storytelling
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/02/volcker-rule-dead-on-arrival-and-is-obama-a-lame-duck.html
Yves @ Naked Capitalism: Is Obama already a lame duck? hahahahahahaha
Spring already started, lots of FTHB activity on the low end. Moat affordable homes in many towns have started to go UC. Almost everything is FHA.
Superbowl has nothing to do with it, but
many use it as the starting gate.
FHA combined with the FTHB credit creates a situation very much like the DAP problem that plagued FHA.
For many low priced homes, the pairing essentially creates a zero down scenario.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/short-sales-soar.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+(Calculated+Risk)
CR - Short sales could be the story of the year. Well…you’d think banks would catch on sooner or later..better something than nothing…
27 - Grim, in the article @23, they said - I thought - that by the end of the year, FHA may require 10% down for riskier clients - No?
Recall that the same congress who banned the DAP program due to the stratospheric delinquency rates basically created an identical situation with the FTHB credit. They just shifted from the assistance being provided by the seller or surrogate, to being provided by the government.
Unfortunately the outcome will be the same.
Cindy,
Someone with a 580 FICO isn’t qualified to buy a house, period.
To get to that point we are talking about multiple multiple-month lates, charge offs, high credit utilizations, maybe a recent bankruptcy.
As a taxpayer, I don’t want to be on the hook for guaranteeing this borrower.
31 - Grim - Well I agree - but jeepers creepers - the article says they have “more qualified” buyers coming along.
So, we have the 580 credit score with 10% down - Oh great.
Our portly governor could have chosen a better word the “gut” to describe his intentions. I guess the phrase “slim down” COAH regulations never crossed is mind.
Someone should have a talk with his PR department.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-horton-swings-to-profit-orders-jump-45-2010-02-02?siteid=rss&rss=1
“Home builder DR Horton see quarterly profit”
” may have found $500 million in construction funding it needs to open.”
In the back crack of Bill Gates’ couch?
“Layoff’s in a NJ muni, just about impossible the unions have had their way”
Pesche [14],
Well dream the impossibe dream. Let’s call it a start.
“Harrison faces first town layoffs in three decades”
“A town statement said layoffs would affect “27 full-time employees and 19 part-time employees.”
“Based upon the affected employees’ salary and benefits, the town of Harrison will save $2,705,000 annually,” the statement said.
http://www.theobserver.com/articles/2010/01/27/news/doc4b5f297cedf57612340524.txt
AG [16],
Any time a retracement includes a corresponding drop of 10-15% in open interest, close your eyes and buy.
Cindy (23)-
The buyer pool seems to be somewhat improved (in terms of credit quality) over the past six months. Keep in mind that this has been forced by the constant ratcheting up of qualification standards by lenders.
Of course, the result of higher standards is a much smaller buyer pool.
Most important, keep in mind that this is a classic “horses gone, shut the barn door” situation. The defaults from 06-09 will be enough to completely vaporize Ginnie and FHA. we’re seeing the first wave of cascading defaults now.
Oblivion never smelled so good.
Bubblicious:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703822404575019082819966538.html?mod=WSJ_hp_editorsPicks
Relo - You want to feel discouraged? Check this out…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/martin-ford/jobless-recoveryand-joble_b_445439.html
“Jobless recovery…And Jobless future?”
“At a minimum, tens of millions of jobs will be subject to automation, self-service technologies, and offshoring.”
The market makes up its mind without ratings. Ratings are a “lagging indicator”…..if you use common sense, it is not very hard to piece together this market…..as an aside WTF is this? “One smart money manager, Scott Noyes” NOT
2.grim says:
February 2, 2010 at 6:12 am
Been a while since I posted some Warren, so here goes:
From New Jersey Newsroom:
Is it time to dump New Jersey munis?
Maybe it’s a good time to lighten up on any New Jersey municipal bonds or municipal bond funds you own. Or dump them altogether.
One smart money manager, Scott Noyes, CFA, CFP, president of Noyes Capital Management in New Vernon, points out that some of the state’s municipalities are in financial trouble, which may lead to their ratings getting downgraded by credit-rating companies. A downgrading usually means the bonds will lose some value. And so will owners of those bonds.
13.freedy says:
February 2, 2010 at 7:04 am
with unemployment on going at these levels
how does housing come back to life?
Heloc’s will never be the same.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVqBYkrlsmw
9.grim says:
February 2, 2010 at 6:52 am
More like a lost decade.
Another one? So soon? [/snark]
Nom- 171 yesterday
Thanks for the info for my friend in Oregon. I’ll bet he has that all figured out. He became a resident of Washington years ago - just had some remaining business interests in OR.
The “smart money manager” add up the below amounts. Last time I checked 2514
Question: I have $25,000 to invest in the stock market. What would you recommend?
Answer: Here’s a possible portfolio for you – assuming you have adequate life insurance, health insurance, home/renters insurance, etc., along with an emergency fund:
Vanguard Dividend Growth, large blend, minimum $3,000, 800-662-6273
Vanguard PRIMECAP, large growth, $3,000, 800-662-6273
T. Rowe Price Equity Income, large value, $2,500, 800-638-5660
T. Rowe Price MidCap Value, $2,500, 800-638-5660
Royce Special Equity, small value, $2,000, 800-221-4268
Scout International (foreign), $1,000, 800-996-2862
Chifi[303];
Remember, you can’t spell “c-ck–cker” without OSU.
We have a JJ sighting……
http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/my_night_with_prosti_dude_LxwFH9NnMM0Mdo1KfHRdpK
but grim you mean after my settlement i
will not be able to buy a mcM in BC.??
how will i ever live that down
Just came back from Las Vegas, nothing is selling there over $100K, average selling price = $70K. That’s recession.
Meanwhile in NJ, homes are still selling for $400K+. Where’s the recession in NJ?
36 BC Bob - Maybe those displaced Harrison workers can get a new publicly financed gig at the future Montclair Senior Center. If any town will be hiring while others are firing, it will be us!
“Ratings are a “lagging indicator”…..if you use common sense, it is not very hard to piece together this market”
Chi,
Akin to the common sense demonstrated during this past bubble?
“Just came back from Las Vegas”
Frank [49]
Now, take the first flight back.
33. Once he gets his first triple by-pass he’ll be as good as new!
I wish I could go back, it’s warm, the food is great and the new casinos are great. Too bad I can access the blog from anywhere.
Friend closing his business of 20 years, flat broke. Going the bankruptcy route on the business, sell the house, get out of NJ.
Lisoosh[55];
Friend closing his business of 20 years, flat broke. Going the bankruptcy route on the business, sell the house, get out of NJ.
Need to know more before making a judgment. Was it a ‘buggy whip’ type business? Was the writing not on the wall before BK was necessary? I’ve been trying mightily to get out of the NYC orbit myself, so I commend him on that decision.
Schumpeter says:
February 1, 2010 at 4:05 pm
Every large modern society needs a massive population of poor, ambitionless dupes who can be bought off with empty promises and cheap giveaways.
Absolutely love this. start a website and put that as the tagline up top.
or, put it on a tshirt or bumpersticker.
#57 Yikes
I like this description, it is more succinct.
http://www.despair.com/potential.html
Planning in NJ is a joke, especially with all the fiefdoms.
Case in point - Route 27, bordered by Somerset, North Brunswick and South Brunswick. Everybody wants the commercial ratables so each town/side of the street is being overdeveloped to death. All of the businesses are suffering, occupancy is rising and the increasing vacancies are an eye sore.
Stupid.
“The “smart money manager” add up the below amounts.”
The man is a CFA and CPA. Are you suggesting that he cannot add to $25K?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704762904575025823767385834.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_news
California’s Divided Fortunes
Inland vs. Coast
A Clovis company - Pelco, that recently laid off 100 workers, is mentioned in the article. I live “inland.”
Anon E. Moose says:
February 2, 2010 at 9:33 am
Lisoosh[55];
“Need to know more before making a judgment. Was it a ‘buggy whip’ type business? Was the writing not on the wall before BK was necessary? I’ve been trying mightily to get out of the NYC orbit myself, so I commend him on that decision.”
Combination of factors - he was in fast food, owned his own place. The demographics have changed as the area has rapidly grown its Asian/Indian population and their tastes are different. The area is also subject to rapid overdevelopment relevant to population (see above), with food places opening (and closing) constantly.
Writing was on the wall for a long time. He just kept hanging on to what he knew. Hindsight says he should have cut and run sooner but hindsight is a slow educator.
He wants to move to Arizona, which has its own problems.
Yikes
Every large modern society needs a massive population of poor, ambitionless dupes who can be bought off with empty promises and cheap giveaways.
Yikes,
clot is correct. history shows that the above is the easiest population to manipulate and control. Its also historically a good sign that your empire has fallen from grace.
A population that actually adheres to the the principles that the US was founded on (and we now only pay lip service to) is difficult at best to control and is only “governed” at best. As the people tend to self determine their fate in such a society.
expect more of the same until we start to see a few CEO’s and politicians hung in public
safe - grim sent your e-mail. Got to run out, will send links, info, tips etc. when I get back.
46
Sounds like 2000+ days of frustration.
RE Coah
NJ and its politicians seem to believe that you can hand someone success or force it upon them. You cant.
Look at the winners of the big lottery jackpots. Most of them end up broke and in generally worse condition then before they won the money.
example:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveMoney/8lotteryWinnersWhoLostTheirMillions.aspx?page=all
until we recognize that we can offer someone the tools to help themselves, but they must take the steps themselves, we are doomed to continue this twisted misguided social experiment.
if someone refuses to use the offered tools to help themselves, there isnt much you can do for them besides not letting them drag others down with themselves.
25k buy bank debt at 9% plus and dollar cost average interest payments into no-load no-fee S&P 500 fund. Done.
Every large modern society needs a massive population of poor, ambitionless dupes who can be bought off with empty promises and cheap giveaways.
True a society without strippers, PSL salesmen and Timeshare people would be a sad society.
Unemployment expanded in December in the nation’s metropolitan areas, with 19 reporting a rate of 15% or higher, government says.
[40] cindy
A couple of decades ago, I was sitting in a conf. room at State Street, watching a presentation on the roll-out of a new securities accounting system. The flowchart diagram showed little stick figures at certain points, representing employees that handled certain functions.
With the press of a button, to represent the new flowchart, a number of the little stick figures disintegrated. I recall thinking that those were jobs disappearing, and that this was the future.
At that point, I knew I did not want to be in an industry where I could easily be replaced by automation.
70 we called that “project nova” at EF Hutton. We flowcharted the dependencies and interdependencies of various departments and created corresponding policies and procedures so we could figure out the useless and redundant tasks. The name of project was brillant. Nova means no go in spanish, the useles and redundant jobs going forward would be a “no go” as we were getting rid of them.
re: #10 - re: Xanadu and outlets
Aren’t the Secaucus Factory Outlets just a mile away, didn’t anyone who built the pace see that the outlets have marginal retail at best even with the discounts?
FYI retail closed about 20,000 stores in 2008 and 2009 combined and very few retailers are expanding.
There are approximately 1.2 million retail stores in the U.S. There was a 5.3% monthly decline overall in Retail in 2008-2009 with the closing of approximately 2.4% of all retail stores.
A jobless recovery is projected at best so how does any retailer expect to open in Xanadu and make money if the rents are high and the traffic is low?
Right now the transportation from the city to Xanadu is spotty train and some bus service at best and I don’t see the Bergen and Passaic county residents giving up their Saturday afternoon of shopping Rt.17 & Rt 4 to sit in Traffic on Rt. 3 or the Turnpike to go and visit Xanadu.
Even during the week, it would be tough to pop into Xanadu after work to pick up something, it requires dealing with rush hour traffic which can be a mess in that area.
#71 - Nova means no go in spanish
It’s also when a star explodes and kills any of the life that surrounded it.
John (68)-
I’d like to think that in a better Amerikan society, strippers would be hotter, PSL salesmen would sell at 1971 prices and all timeshares would be sold without forcing you to sit through the presentation.
But, alas, then the coffee wouldn’t be for closers.
“True a society without strippers, PSL salesmen and Timeshare people would be a sad society.”
[44] cindy,
Thanks for the update. I bet he does have it figured out.
Good tax planning should be able to firewall the damage caused by state legislatures playing Robin Hood.
In Oregon, as elsewhere, is all just for public consumption. We publicly whip businesspeople yet government breaks of all stripes for small businesses are lucrative, especially the wink-wink given to rampant tax evasion. And for the large businesses, major tax concessions to stay put and employ the sheeple.
If Nike starts looking for the exits, they will decry Nike’s “greed” yet offer generous tax concessions to stay put.
No dupes are bigger than the ones who think you get laid by 40 virgins if you blow yourself to smithereens.
The absolute master salesmen of the world are the ones who are able to close the deal on that line of bullshit.
[71] john
EF Hutton. Gawd, that brings back memories of the days when I was on the phone to Manny Hanny, Chemical, and Sanwa banks every day.
None of them are around either.
Manny Hanny and Chemical are not JO Morgan Chase!!!
Remember, Chemical bank bought Manny Hanny and then kept Chemical name. Then Chemical bought Chase, but even though they bought Chase they switched names as it sounded better. Chase then bought Bank One and JP Morgan.
Chemical never went out of business.
BTW EF Hutton is Smith Barney Morgan Stanley
Eraserhead back in front of Congress, lying his ass off.
“Even as ever more Congressmen express concern about the implications of the ongoing CRE “bubble” (yes, this is a quote), S&P comes out with a report noting that should the banking system be forced to take all appropriate CRE-associated writedowns, it likely would not survive. And all this is occurring as REITs probe new 52 week highs. Welcome to the new economy.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kanjorski-admits-there-growing-bubble-commercial-real-estate-sp-observes-cre-losses-could-wi
“No dupes are bigger than the ones who think you get laid by 40 virgins if you blow yourself to smithereens.”
More people have probably died fighting over whose god is more benevolent than any other cause.
[78-9] john
Thanks for the history lesson. Didn’t care then, don’t care now.
Comrade you should care, history shall reapeat otherwise.
Clot
I know you’re only daytrading it but be careful with that SRS.
REITs are right now in the center of the unholy triumvirate of a client desperate for a refi, an investor desperate for yield, and hungry IBs in the middle.
Throw out any fundamental analysis. The fees relative to the work on this cr@p are phenomenal. It’s found money, with buyer and seller kicking down the doors for the product.
Corporate refis and recaps will get done for the REITs. Betting on their demise is fools gold, as their conditions will improve, if only from terminal to critical, but still improve.
83. The lesson is that these F*ckers swallow each other up. Growth by acquisition or the “roll-up” — no substance.
[84] john
Got out of that line of work (bank mergers) as I don’t expect many except the shotgun marriage variety.
funny part is when Chemical and Manny Hanny merged WSJ has called it “two drunks holding each other up in middle of night”
I used to eat lunch at 55 water street sometimes in the “Chemical Cafeteria” always thought that was a gross name.
going to be a record year for small banks on verge of failure being gobbled up Synus and suntrust are on edge.
SRS is broken, inverse the market. Even the DXD has a higher beta.
Tax News of the Day:
If you are going to claim all kinds of tax benefits from your “nompound” farm, you had better actually be farming:
“The U.S. Tax Court Feb. 1 held that Marc Vianello and Michelle Mullarkey Vianello were not engaged in the trade or business of farming in 2002 and 2003 (Vianello v. Commissioner, T.C., No. 15967-07, T.C. Memo. 2010-17, 2/1/10).
The petitioners were both certified public accountants, and they were able to purchase a property with pastures, woodlands, and soybean crop land from a sheriff’s sale after a dispute with the seller of the property. The court found the petitioners never met the original property manager in person and contracted with various individuals to manage the property during the times at issue. . . .”
I read the case, and I think that the taxpayer got jobbed, but it was an unsympathetic taxpayer and some fact gaps that allowed the tax court (complicit in the IRS collections regime, IMHO) to deny deductions for actual expenses for the farming operation.
This is a warning that unless you are standing before the court in the dirty overalls with that day’s farm mud on them, they are not going to permit small farming operations run by dilletantes to claim deductions.
Moral of the story is that you have to silo off your tax preferred businesses from the less sympathetic aspects of your tax profile to avoid getting on the IRS radar.
Should clarify, SRS hasn’t really seemed to track double inverse the CRE market. Perhaps you r/e pro’s can chime in here.
left (85)-
I watch it like a hawk; thanks. Basically, I just hope to catch it on the days when sentiment is sour.
I think the current love of REITs is going to be studied eventually as one of the biggest incidences of mass hysteria ever.
mocha (92)-
That’s because its benchmark isn’t the CRE market.
[89] john
Aside from deals like BNY-PNC today, I don’t see an appetite for small and regional banks except from the FDIC’s repo showroom.
Why go into the market when you can buy from the repo man for less?
Years ago, in the last banking crisis, BNE was shopping its trust division and State Street was interested but said no. Later, as BNE and Shawmut propped each other up, State Street hired all the bankers, who brought over that business.
[89] john
“Synus and suntrust are on edge.”
Suntrust has been on the edge as long as I can remember. Some days, I wonder what’s propping them up.
Mocha, here’s info on SRS’ benchmark (IYR):
http://www.proshares.com/funds/srs_index.html
“Component companies include those that invest directly or indirectly through development, management or ownership of shopping malls, apartment buildings and housing developments; and real estate investment trusts (”REITs”) that invest in apartments, office and retail properties”
Thats not CRE?
BTW, a high beta issue…married to a high volatility environment…equals fun for all (provided the trend is your friend).
until the end when it bends.
mocha (98)-
You’re being a bit vague and general. It’s a weighted index of specific CRE-related issues. Not exactly the same animal as the CRE market writ large and unweighted.
“ProShares UltraShort Real Estate seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.”
There are also well-documented tracking inefficiencies and time erosion concerns due to the non-cumulative nature of the beast. Finally, since SRS uses derivatives as its its mechanism of execution, dividends are not in play.
At the end of the day, when given the choice between “investment” in some sham, Ponzi, POS stock or gambling, I’ll choose to gamble.
To me, it’s a more honest process.
BTW, SPG is one of the biggest sham/Ponzi/POS issues going.
do you have a link that explains that in layman’s terms?
John, Clot
PSL?
Re: Manny Hanny –
Remember how Ralph Kiner used to butcher that name as he did the wrap-up after the Mets games ??
“Manufacturers Hand-over” I think Ralphie had a 7th inning stretch under his belt by the end of the night.
He’s beautiful…..but he could mangle the language.
“Xanadu”
Who here would be at all surprised if a workman’s torch set off an unfortunate fire that consumes the place?
Change you can believe in:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100201/bs_nm/us_budget_backdoortaxes
Reuters
Mon Feb 1, 2010 4:09 pm ET
Backdoor taxes to hit middle class
By Terri Cullen Terri Cullen
NEW YORK (Reuters.com) — The Obama administration’s plan to cut more than $1 trillion from the deficit over the next decade relies heavily on so-called backdoor tax increases that will result in a bigger tax bill for middle-class families.
In the 2010 budget tabled by President Barack Obama on Monday, the White House wants to let billions of dollars in tax breaks expire by the end of the year — effectively a tax hike by stealth.
While the administration is focusing its proposal on eliminating tax breaks for individuals who earn $250,000 a year or more, middle-class families will face a slew of these backdoor increases.
The targeted tax provisions were enacted under the Bush administration’s Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001. Among other things, the law lowered individual tax rates, slashed taxes on capital gains and dividends, and steadily scaled back the estate tax to zero in 2010.
If the provisions are allowed to expire on December 31, the top-tier personal income tax rate will rise to 39.6 percent from 35 percent. But lower-income families will pay more as well: the 25 percent tax bracket will revert back to 28 percent; the 28 percent bracket will increase to 31 percent; and the 33 percent bracket will increase to 36 percent. The special 10 percent bracket is eliminated.
Investors will pay more on their earnings next year as well, with the tax on dividends jumping to 39.6 percent from 15 percent and the capital-gains tax increasing to 20 percent from 15 percent. The estate tax is eliminated this year, but it will return in 2011 — though there has been talk about reinstating the death tax sooner.
Millions of middle-class households already may be facing higher taxes in 2010 because Congress has failed to extend tax breaks that expired on January 1, most notably a “patch” that limited the impact of the alternative minimum tax. The AMT, initially designed to prevent the very rich from avoiding income taxes, was never indexed for inflation. Now the tax is affecting millions of middle-income households, but lawmakers have been reluctant to repeal it because it has become a key source of revenue.
Without annual legislation to renew the patch this year, the AMT could affect an estimated 25 million taxpayers with incomes as low as $33,750 (or $45,000 for joint filers). Even if the patch is extended to last year’s levels, the tax will hit American families that can hardly be considered wealthy — the AMT exemption for 2009 was $46,700 for singles and $70,950 for married couples filing jointly.
Middle-class families also will find fewer tax breaks available to them in 2010 if other popular tax provisions are allowed to expire. Among them:
* Taxpayers who itemize will lose the option to deduct state sales-tax payments instead of state and local income taxes;
* The $250 teacher tax credit for classroom supplies;
* The tax deduction for up to $4,000 of college tuition and expenses;
* Individuals who don’t itemize will no longer be able to increase their standard deduction by up to $1,000 for property taxes paid;
* The first $2,400 of unemployment benefits are taxable, in 2009 that amount was tax-free.
Great article/interview - hope we coontinue to see more like it.
U.S. Economy “De-evolving”: An Industrialist’s Plan to Revive American Manufacturing
U.S. Manufacturing grew in January at its fastest pace in more than five years. Yet, manufacturing makes up only 12% of the U.S. economy - down from its post World War II peak of 28% percent in 1953.
That lack of an industrial base has put the American economy and worker in jeopardy, says distressed investor Lynn Tilton, CEO of Patriarch Partners. “The reality is, in recent times, every great empire has been built on a manufacturing economy,” notes Tilton. “The fall of every empire has been the failure to remember that one fundamental fact.”
Sounds promising, but how does America compete with cheaper labor from emerging markets?
“It’s a long humble journey back” but with “cash and creativity” Tilton’s confident it can be done. What we lack in cheap labor and certain raw materials American manufacturers can make up with innovation, she says. It will also take sacrifice on the part of capitalists. Investors will have to be willing to accept tighter margins in the short run in exchange for a stronger country in the long run.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/u.s.-economy-%22de-evolving%22-an-industrialist’s-plan-to-revive-american-manufacturing-416990.html?tickers=tlt,uup,TM,xli,F,%5EDJI,%5EGSPC
#108 Qwerty
The Bush tax cuts should not have gone through in the first place. Trickle down economics does not work.
1.8 Trillion added to the deficit and still counting. Thank you GWB.
“Investors will pay more on their earnings next year with the tax on dividends jumping to 39.6 percent from 15 percent and the capital-gains tax increasing to 20 percent from 15 percent.”
Trust me this will make the stock market boom!
PGC, seen this?
http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/files/2009/04/obamadebt.jpg
Veto
Investors will have to be willing to accept tighter margins in the short run in exchange for a stronger country in the long run.
Ha, like thats going to happen.
PGC,
While i think GWB was a disaster and should probably be brought up on charges, its not like he was an exception the last several presidents have all done nothing but short term actions.
Say hi to the new boss, same as the old boss.
PGC [110],
Approx 3T[total] defecits for fy 10′ and 11′ and still counting.
“Say hi to the new boss, same as the old boss.”
Hyde [113],
Same puppet, same seat, different suit.
Buy now and you can be in before Memorial Day.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703389004575033451409665946.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_realestate
Relo [116],
Asking approx 20% less than his cost basis.
117: Or just wait for the lis pendens.
If we made ourselves energy independent and had a balanced budget, and made the stuff we NEED, what would be the downside of repudiating all foreign debt, shutting down the Fed, opening a New Bank of the United States, and redeeming up to $25,000,000 in federal reserve notes for New Dollars on a one-for-one basis for each U.S. citizen who paid taxes the prior year?
Sure it would tick off a bunch of foreigners and foreign governments but so be it. When individual borrowers get in over their heads the BK court in essence does this for them. Russia did it and is now all the better for it.
#112 Qwerty
That graph shows how GWB drove the bus into the wall and we have a lot of digging to get back out of the hole.
2 wars, the tax cuts and the last time I looked that was his name on the bottom of that 700Billion bailout check.
While there is some truth to new boss same as the old boss. I think this is more as “2000-2008, who let Bluto drive?”
B.O. will ruin us. It probably doesn’t matter at this point who gets elected when or where because they all seem to be idiots. I am tired of all the social engineering going on in NJ. We need less laws, regulations, and taxes. Now we have more social engineering at large with B.O. wanting gays serving opening in the military. I don’t know if the end is near but is certainly isn’t far off.
“…Everyone is gay…” -Kurt Cobain
Jim [121],
An administration with less than 10% of business experience yet they control/seek control of banks, hedge funds, health care, auto industry, insurance industry, MBS market, etc.. They are the largest hedge fund in the world.
” “The reality is, in recent times, every great empire has been built on a manufacturing economy,” ”
I thought empires were generally based on conquest and subjugation.
” “The reality is, in recent times, every great empire has been built on a manufacturing economy,” ”
I thought empires were generally based on conquest and subjugation.
PGC 120
You seem to be under the impression that party affiliation matters…..
Any president controlled my corporate interests will run us into the ground because that is what will benefit the corporations.
The only president that will be in the peoples favor is own who is not beholden to corporate interests, regardless of their party affiliation.
that my friend is why we end up in the same abyss regardless of which path we take.
Phil saw his shadow. Any report from Joe Sixpack?
Shore 119
That is the only way we successfully reboot the empire. But wont happen. It would decimate the existing corporate interests. It would be the equivalent of a corporate neutron bomb.
Plenty of strong new businesses would arise, but the existing big dogs would be taken to the wood shed. they certainly arent going to volunteer for that.
lisoosh 125
they are, we have just developed more advanced forms of subjugation and conquest.
The way that modern corporations behave is not so different from historic raiders
122. Essex
Isn’t that Kurt Cobain guy dead?
119 - Shore, this is a good question. i dont really know but my guess is that we’d need the cooperation and permission of our creditors before we changed the currency denomination of our debts to them.
We could prob stiff them but thats a default and would make us lose the coveted reserve currency status.
Inflation seems so much cleaner. but i dont know.
Planning for housing is so important. Because if you do not make any plan before making any housing then it will crate problem in future and you will have to face lot of problems.
Veto 131
We have already lost reserve currency status. The change is not over night but the process to move to something other then the US $ as the global reserve currency is already well underway.
We dont need permission from anyone to take such actions. As shore pointed out there would be a price to pay, but if we actually achieved the goals shore stated then it would be well worth it.
Jim says:
“I am tired of all the social engineering going on in NJ. We need less laws, regulations, and taxes. Now we have more social engineering at large with B.O. wanting gays serving opening in the military.”
Hey Jim, do you see the contradiction in these two statements? Banning gays from the military is a regulation. Allowing them to serve would be to REMOVE that regulation.
108- Well, at those new rates of taxation you can be sure that consumer spending will not be able to make a comeback anytime soon. You can’t squeeze water from a stone. It’s a real disgrace that they haven’t fixed the AMT permanently.
Jim,
Come on now man, the spartans and a few other historic armies encourage gay relationships amongst soldiers to increase unit cohesion and as a form of mentorship.
#1 He also has an MBA from the University of Chicago; and #2 I guess the answer is yes, because from what I know he is a dot-connector…..
Veto That says:
February 2, 2010 at 9:45 am
“The “smart money manager” add up the below amounts.”
The man is a CFA and CPA. Are you suggesting that he cannot add to $25K?
Whine,
if they fix the AMT then they will have a huge gaping tax revenue hole ti fill….
dont expect a fix anytime soon
“The Bush tax cuts should not have gone through in the first place. Trickle down economics does not work. ”
You’re right. the government should take my money because they know how to spend it so much than I do.
Also, can anyone put a date out there that the Great One and his legion will stop blaming things on the trained chimpanzee Bush? Can we agree if he gets a second term that sometime in 2014 or so they Obamaniacs will stop?
“That graph shows how GWB drove the bus into the wall and we have a lot of digging to get back out of the hole.”
spend it so much better, even
‘We have already lost reserve currency status.”
lol, easy tiger. took england greater than 50 yrs to lose that status.
SHore,
at what point is it taxation without representation when the the corporate lobbies are writing the bills being passed? how about when speech = money and corporations are legally people who just happen to have 10,000X the financial resources the average joe has.
Veto,
I agree the transition will take decades, but the foundation is already being laid, to many countries are tired of being force fed our inflation.
136. Mr. Hyde
Well, that might be but I just don’t see the average American military member “bonding” in this fashion. I know it has worked in other armies but I don’t think it would have a good outcome in the US.
Chi, for you (ducks head and runs):
http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2010/02/lancet_wakefield_autism_mmr_au.html
Lancet Renounces Study Linking Autism And Vaccines
“We dont need permission from anyone to take such actions. As shore pointed out there would be a price to pay”
Are we still talking about the freedy walk away thing here?
144 - Why? Are American men more “manly” than other men?
Leftwing,
Do you actually make over $250K per year or are you a “Joe the Plumber” type who thinks “one day I will make over 250K”.
If it is the former, please take note that you are paying historically low tax rates, particularly during a time of two wars. Before 1982 the top tax rate was somewhere between 70-92%.
If it is the latter, you are an idiot.
Qwerty;
The article you cite on “backdoor taxes on the middle class” was pulled by reuters because it is full of errors. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100202/bs_nm/us_budget_backdoortaxes
“take note that you are paying historically low tax rates”
plg, this cant be stressed enough. Particularly as we face increasing tax rates into the future.
Pig
Nasty names, which is why you will never end up in my tax bracket.
While the marginal rates pre-Reagan were higher, the effective rates were much lower.
Today, effective rates and marginal rates are much closer. And the effective rate today may very well be higher than in ‘82 for many.
That depends on how good your accountant was back then.
Bottom line, I can spend my money much more effectively than some government. Other than to fund (about four) legitimate functions of government keep your grubby hands out of my pocket and life, and earn yourself the money you want to spend.
“Today, effective rates and marginal rates are much closer. And the effective rate today may very well be higher than in ‘82 for many.”
good point as well. tie score 1 - 1.
lol.
yea but 250K was real money back in the day. 14% of families on Long Island have household income of more than 250K.
PGC -Kraft got Cadbury.
sigh.
Veto,
How does on lose status as a reserve currency? It’s a process, like building a giant pyramid or better, a giant ponzi.
Let’s start with currency flows out of said county along with less foreign demand, foreign central banks begin to diversify, ffr at 0% which is the foundation for the world’s biggest carry trade, the fed begins to monetize debt and defecits explode. Sound familiar?
When it occurs, all will be shocked. We never saw this coming.
By the way, no permission required to default.
http://www.businessinsider.com/busted-banker-caught-looking-at-nude-girl-while-colleague-is-talking-interest-rates-on-tv-2010-2
A neat chart if effective tax rates over the past 15 years.
My point is that Obama’s tax suggestion would still be historically low marginal and effective tax rates, particularly for a period during which we are engaged in two wars. Ofcourse, you will insist it is a socialist plot to expand government, but it is in fact an attempt to raise enough revenue to clean up a massive mess left by 8 years of Republican government.
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/stupid_chart_of_the_day/
“It’s a process, like building a giant pyramid. By the way, no permission required to default.”
i agree bc, these were basically my points.
Scribe [156],
Great stuff.
“The man is a CFA and CPA. Are you suggesting that he cannot add to $25K?”
I noticed that too. Must be the minimum amounts required to open an account with the funds.
Heard an interesting show on Bloomberg on Sunday morning. They said that it is now down to less than 1% of mutual fund managers that can beat the indexes which they mimic due mainly to management fees and the dilution of talent such as Lynch and Gross. Forget mutual funds. They are done. ETFs are twice as effective and dirt cheap.
#whatever
what is this?
bi?
Planning for housing is so important. Because if you do not make any plan before making any housing then it will crate problem in future and you will have to face lot of problems.
veto [159],
You didn’t copy and paste ponzi?
ha ha. yes, ponzi was your word.
Pig
Good LOL.
The first thing I noticed on your graph was the Y-axis.
Then, apparently unlike you, I scrolled down. Look at the bottom two graphs, genius, particularly the orange line on the last one.
Your link contradicts your point.
Also, re: higher taxes as a “socialist plot to expand government”.
We agree on this totally. I do not believe the Great One is engaged in a socialist plot. He is, and always has been, very upfront about his intentions. He wants more of my money to distribute as he sees fit. Period.
frank’s identity finally revealed!!
He’s actually mandy stadtmiller!!!!
http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/my_night_with_prosti_dude_LxwFH9NnMM0Mdo1KfHRdpK
sl
RE: “That graph shows how GWB drove the bus into the wall”
Actually, it shows a declining deficit in GWB’s second term, until the 2008 meltdown hit.
pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/files/2009/04/obamadebt.jpg
RE: “2 wars, the tax cuts and the last time I looked that was his name on the bottom of that 700Billion bailout check.”
Both wars were voted for and funded by congress. And you didn’t look very hard, as President Obama signed the $700 billion stimulus into law in February 2008.
online.wsj.com/article/SB123487951033799545.html
Veets (152)
I’m mercying this guy. Call the game already.
RE: “was pulled by reuters because it is full of errors”
There is no mention of “errors” and I know it was pulled — likely after Reuters received a smackdown from the White House.
You’re right. the government should take my money because they know how to spend it so much than I do.
“Taxes are the price we pay for civilization.” There is a lot you can’t pay for on your own. A bad collective is better than uncoordinated masses.
Politics is partisan and the corporations back both sides.
What we see on these boards is “Oh Yea, GWB was bad, but O is worse.” GWB is right up there will Harding on the presidential wall of shame. But here it seems his administrations legacy gets a Mulligan.
“B.O. will ruin us.”, do you not mean ruin us further? That’s like saying GWB only got us a little bit pregnant, but wait to you see how pregnant we’ll be in a few months under O.
Back in reality, how can O make it worse. Congress and the administration is in stalemate. Beyond a veto pen and Executive Order, he has no real tools to maneuver. The block vote of 40 plus Liberman mean that nothing will really change before November. Beyond then, it is probably more of the same up to 2012.
I am not a D, but I would like to see the game at least the game called straight, even if its not being played straight.
Starting with the gem at 6:56am, and continuing thereafter, leftwing is on a roll today.
134.plg says:
February 2, 2010 at 12:50 pm
Jim says:
“I am tired of all the social engineering going on in NJ. We need less laws, regulations, and taxes. Now we have more social engineering at large with B.O. wanting gays serving opening in the military.”
Hey Jim, do you see the contradiction in these two statements? Banning gays from the military is a regulation. Allowing them to serve would be to REMOVE that regulation.
I can remember Gays serving covertly in 1963 at a base in Texas. I can remember in basic training entering a bathroom, at the base movie theater, and seeing a sergeant leaning against the wall behind the urinals. Not thinking anything of it I proceeded to do my business. The sergeant came up behind me and decided to help. I cold cocked him. Had he been serving openly, where I could tell he was Gay, maybe a special insignia, I would have left the bathroom, and we could have avoided the confrontation. So I’m all in favor of Gays serving openly, if that also means straights know who they are, and can avoid those types of situations.
Lefty,
PLG loses a point because he made the argument for those making less than $250k and then posted a chart for the top 1%.
But then he did call you an idiot in 148 so he gains 1 point back for being fiesty. Still tie.
I will only call a winner after the first tear is shed.
Smackdown.
Don’t know if it’s linkable but J. Gregg (Senator from NH) just reams OMB Chief Orzsag in testimony.
Orszag was trying to slide through a ‘re-investment’ of $100B of repaid TARP moneys in other stuff. Gregg shuts him down, yelling at him that Gregg will read the law to Orzsag since Orzsag is incapable understanding it. Gregg proceeds to read the parts where TARP fund repayments ’shall’ be used to reduce the deficit and he adds ‘not so you can come into Nashua and throw around cash for political support’.
The Great One is live from Nashua in about ten.
One good thing about his policies. Looks like we’re going the British model with rowdy backbenchers in the legislature. At least we can be entertained while watching our future being squandered.
Qwerty,
As usual, you are full of sh1t.
http://www.businessinsider.com/reuters-takes-down-story-linked-by-drudge-report-2010-2
I bet you answer those surveys your party emails you too.
Both parties are exactly the same. Wake up and stop taking the bait.
Aren’t you sick of the commercials on Fox News already? Did you buy your Franklin Mint coins and/or Miracle Ear yet?
Sucka!
#154 Lisooh
Kraft got Cadbury.
There has to be a Hershey highway joke in here somewere, they will be a world of hurt soon.
Or perhaps, Macaroni & Cheese filled Easter eggs?
176 Stu - That would make Lil Gator so happy.
What the chart shows is that the effective tax rate is still at historical lows even with Obama repealing the Bush tax cuts on those making over 250K. The marginal tax rate is also at historical lows. How does that contradict what I said?
The investor calling for US manufacturing has it right. All of the companies looking at short term profits, will pay the price later. It would be foolish to think in this environment low cost manufacturing in us denominations will continue. It cannot, our trading “partners” will need to adjust for weakness in US currency. Additionally by using chinese suppliers, these American businesses are creating competitors for themselves, what happens when they turn around and start selling the products directly, cutting out the American middle man? Cummins got globalization and China correct, most other manufacturers have failed and still it is scary that their products might be ripped off. China et al just can’t be a producer, they need to consume these products as well. For the most part they are the worst about buying our goods, other countries consume a lot of at least American branded goods, just look at Mexico. They drink coke, eat frito lays products, drive Chevy’s and Fords, etc. I’m going to say it now, the old economy was a good economy! Manufacturing needs to be located near sources of consumption, it is the only way to guarantee long term sustainability. Moving the manufacturing to China eliminated consumers, and the chinese market didn’t make up for it. Manufacturing in the US makes perfect sense now, protection from currency market volatility, tremendous goodwill is gained in middle america, and protection from supply disruption and oil price increases. I am not saying we shouldn’t continue to source from overseas but rather having domestic product to some extent is VERY PRAGMATIC and PRACTICAL.
RE: “[Obama] has no real tools to maneuver”
He needs more than control of the White House, a majority in the House, and a majority in the Senate?
Here’s a maneuvering tool: pass legislation to address the issues important to the American people (economy, jobs), rather than force ObamaCare down their throat:
people-press.org/report/584/policy-priorities-2010
RE: “I would like to see the game at least the game called straight”
Doesn’t seem that way from here.
plg
Recall, I was the ‘idiot’ because I did not according to you “take note that you are paying historically low tax rates” particularly when compared to the eighties. You were using this argument to justify higher taxes now.
You then proceeded to link a chart that shows current effective rates are in fact higher than the eighties, even before your Dear Leader’s tax hikes.
You are becoming tedious and boring and worst of all, inaccurate. Badger someone else.
“[T]he drive of the Rockefellers and their allies is to create a one-world government, combining super-capitalism and Communism under the same tent, all under their control … Do I mean conspiracy? Yes I do. I am convinced there is such a plot, international in scope, generations old in planning, and incredibly evil in intent.”
Lawrence Patton McDonald
U.S. House of Representatives
from Georgia’s 7th district
*Killed in office 1983 Korean Air Lines Flight 007
plg (157)-
Get your mind right.
We are all screwed anyway by the corporations and their political lobbyists. They cut my salary 12% for most of last year and I’m still mired in AMT. Did my taxes yesterday and I owe Uncle Sam more than ever. Even after calling our multi income a loss for sh1ts and giggles, I still owe a boat load to the man. This is even after paying a nice amount of estimated taxes. I think it may be time to go to a tax adviser. It might make sense to pay them to cheat for me, rather then to risk doing it myself. I suppose it’s Obama’s fault, or was it Bush, or maybe the Pope. I’m sticking with the Pope.
The future is super capitalism and communism under one umbrella.
“B.O. will ruin us.”, do you not mean ruin us further?
PGC [170],
Well, since we wil have a shortfall of 1.6T, this fiscal year, and the % of defecit to GDP will be largest since WW11, I guess the answer to your question is yes.
left (165)-
In this regard, Il Duce is much more fascist than soci@list. I’d venture as far as to say that were he to take a more soci@list bent, his ideas would be better received.
Meanwhile, I’d be glad if PLG would pay my share of any tax increases coming down the pike. ‘Cause Lord knows, I sure ain’t gonna pay them.
“We agree on this totally. I do not believe the Great One is engaged in a socialist plot. He is, and always has been, very upfront about his intentions. He wants more of my money to distribute as he sees fit. Period.”
all the cpas I know are chatty cathy’s. Might as well post your tax return right on this blog and every street corner in NYC
Government spending is the driver. Taxes are the cold shower. In a way, I welcome higher taxes, because they are the wake up call for people who think that government spending is “free” because somebody else pays for it.
This chart (chosen for convenience) suggests that total government spending now represents over 40% of GDP.
http://tinyurl.com/yk59kvr
Most of this spending comes in areas that the government has no right to be involved in, and no talent for productivity.
The main issue I have with the income tax is that it directly punishes effort, success, productivity, work. Everything that a growing economy needs more of. If the US suffers from a lack of savings, wouldn’t it be better to tax consumption rather than earnings?
Of course I forgot, politics is about providing a justification for cannibalism - to eat the rich - it’s for the children, and only fair.
“Manufacturing needs to be located near sources of consumption”
when the avg salary of the us worker is cut by 20-40%, it will make sense to manufacture alot of things here again.
PGC (170)-
IMO, this is the best we can hope for.
Unless, of course, all of them would start killing each other. That would be great.
“The block vote of 40 plus Liberman mean that nothing will really change before November. Beyond then, it is probably more of the same up to 2012.”
Stu
The only way is to starve the beast.
BO is essentially Facist, everything from his campaigning to his policies with the Banks make him look like a poor-man’s version of Mussolini or Franco. The only thing missing is the trains running on time, etc.
How much is everyone on average putting into 401K from bonus. Last year was so bad people were going all in, this year who knows.
plg (178)-
I don’t give a rat’s ass about “historic lows”. They are TOO FCUKING HIGH RIGHT NOW, AS THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF THE TAXES COLLECTED ARE EITHER STOLEN OR SQUANDERED.
Interesting how my daily lesson plan in the new world order was put into mod not once but twice.
Google Congressman Larry P Mcdonald
Killed on Korean airlines 1983.
Google Larry P Mcdonald.
Bonus?
What’s that?
401K? Not before the IRA now that the match is gone. Probably the reason we owe so much more in taxes this year.
Can’t forget that we need to continue financing endless, pointless wars.
There was a Congressman from Georgia that died in 1983 on a Korean airlines flight. Google him for your daily lesson in what the future holds. Apparently I cant type his name without my posts going into mod. Hmmmm
ok, i call it.
194-
Schumpt just came into the ring with a chainsaw.
“There are only two possible outcomes to the greatest financing gap in history. Interest rates have to soar to unimaginable levels to attract recalcitrant investors, or the plunge in spending sends us into a postponed Great Depression II.
Let me know which one it is, will you? I’ll be hiding out in my camouflaged underground bunker in the desert. And if you do come calling, be a peach and bring me some MRE’s, a five gallon bottle of water, and a case of 9 mm ammo, will you?”
[110] PGC,
Don’t tell me that you are one of those kool-aid drinkers who believed that, under Clinton, the Federal Government actually took in more than it paid out?
The Federal “Budget” excludes a lot of things (notably, entitlements) that are running at deficit and ballooning the national debt, and always were. Consequently, while the “budget” was balanced, we were still going into the hole albeit at a slower clip.
[199] al
Desert Nompound???? Aside from the decent sight lines and natural obstacles, isn’t a desert a bit, well, harsh?
This article about says it all about our financial condition:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/feb/02/america-europe
America is broke, and needs its old friendsThe US badly needs its European allies to help redress its loss of balance and stem the haemorrhaging of its international clout
Barack Obama’s $3.8tn budget is a vastly complex affair. But one fact stands out plainly: in layman’s terms, America is broke. The federal government’s outgoings will exceed income by about $1.6tn this year; over the next 10 years combined, the predicted gap is $8.5tn. Given the partisan impasse on Capitol Hill over spending cuts and higher taxes, there is no reason to assume matters will improve any time soon.
Obama suggested this week that such mind-boggling improvidence is unsustainable, economically and even morally. But continuing, chronic American financial vulnerability also carries increasingly serious implications for US global influence and its standing as the world’s only superpower. In short, the deficit, and the mindset that produces it, begin to threaten the post-1945 security architecture.
[snip]
Veto 189
when the avg salary of the us worker is cut by 20-40%, it will make sense to manufacture alot of things here again.
you think i’m a sadist. Do you know what the US looks like when you cut the average income of the US worker by 20-40%?
The existing debt doesnt just dissapear…
that 20-40% is essentially financial Armageddon for most Americans.
a housing drop of 50% is nothing compared to 20-40% income drops across the board.
The US economy is about 70% consumer spending. a income decrease of 20-40% would actually have a great effect due to debt service effects, so you would probably see consumption go down by 30-50%.
In one fell swoop you just wiped out 20-35% of the US economy. you cant grow your way out of that kind of drop.
The obvious solution here is the one proposed by Shore. Turn inward and become energy self sufficient, developing a “national” economy as opposed to global. Then prices are more representative of income.
Now, what were the words to that Kinks song from the 1970s?
I remember, when you were down
And you needed a helping hand
I came to feed you
But now that I need you
You won’t give me a second glance
Now I’m calling all citizens from all over the world
This is captain america calling
I bailed you out when you were down on your knees
So will you catch me now I’m falling
[174] stu
I would not have harshed the story or the messenger like that, but you beat me to one thing–that story did not “hang together” as it related to current and proposed tax law. So I won’t try to take it apart.
The most glaring misstatement was that the tax on dividend income would go to 39.6% from 15%. It would actually be considered income and taxed at marginal rates.
Also, AMT is a different issue altogether, and even without Dear Leader’s extremely narrow view of what constitutes “taxes” that he won’t hike, that isn’t technically being hiked.
As for harshing Qwerty, it was an MSM link and he isn’t a tax expert, so I won’t shoot the messenger.
199. Com, thats not my plan its a quote from some hedge fund manager I never heard of.
Nom 201,
depending on who you believe, there is a very real danger of the midwest beginning to see desertification. Not that you or i will have to worry about it very much if its accurate. but our grandkids might.
[203] Hyde
“The obvious solution here is the one proposed by Shore. Turn inward and become energy self sufficient, developing a “national” economy as opposed to global. Then prices are more representative of income.”
Essentially, that is protectionism. Create a walled system to eliminate assymetries.
I said it here about a year ago that such protectionism is the only way that Obama’s econ. and environ. policies would work.
Googled McD from KAL007.
Never paid any attention before now, other than recalling some junior congressman went down on that flight.
I think he’d be an interesting character to many on this board.
Here’s one of his quotes:
“We have four boxes with which to defend our freedom: the soap box, the ballot box, the jury box, and the cartridge box.”
Georgia Democrat.
Absent immediate and BOLD, and I mean REALLY BOLD moves to cut the cost of government (including medicaid, Medicare, and other entitlements, as well as parts of defense) we are likely to witness the BK of the United States. I never would have imagined that I would ever write such words, but here we re. Should it happen, perhaps the trials tht occur afterwards will exact just punishment from the “leaders” who brought us to this sorry state of affairs.
[207] Hyde,
Are you speaking of the depletion of the Ogalla Aquifer?
Leftwing:
I said you were an idiot if you were in the Joe the Plumber category thinking you will one day make 250K.
I said historic lows in comparison to the tax rates pre-1982 when they ranged from 70-90. That referred to marginal rates. You raised effective tax rates. My response was that even effective rates are at lows in comparison to that period. The increase suggested by Obama are reasomnable considering we are conducting two unfunded wars.
I don’t mind a debate, but you are mischaracterizing my argument and that is shiesty. Exactly what would be expected from someone who thinks the rich pay too much in taxes and the government should keep their hands out of their pocket. It must be this same sheistiness motivates you to shirk your responsbility to your country to pay your fair share of taxes while reaping all of the benefits of the taxpayers who cam before you and afforded you the oppotunity to live and work in this country. Those taxpayer paid for their wars, built infrastructure and handed off a better country. Can’t say the same for you.
“America is broke, and needs its old friendsThe US badly needs its European allies”
Shore [202],
Rain makes grain. However, hell of a problem during a blistering, summer drought.
207. Check out this video to see what the inland valley of California looks like re desertification. The gov shut the water off. Dont worry food prices are too low anyway and Americans are too fat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ETGVR5sw1o
[169] qwerty
No, it was full of errors, or at least disjointed assertions that can only come to pass under certain circumstances.
You know me, I am a fellow traveller and I know that there will be both direct and indirect tax increases on the “middle class,” but it was still a very, very poorly written story.
209. The congressman made some even more interesting quotes. I guess if you get too close to the truth you get eliminated.
“you think i’m a sadist.”
i guess 20-40% wage cut is extreme. i dont know what the correct percent is. I was half joking to make a point but inflation hides alot of these effects so most of the adjustment could happen over 10-15 years without most americans realizing it.
plg
Good for you. Walking away from prior personal insults, while working in a different one, and then wrapping yourself in the flag for protection.
Say what you want, just try to keep up. I know it’s moving fast for you.
PS. Nice use of buzzwords like paying ‘fair share’ when data and logic abandon you.
Nom 207,
thats part of it. apparently these are some other environmental feed back loops that are suspected of coming into play.
Last time i read about it it was noted that the mechanism could be similar as to what happened to turn the sahara from a green area to the desert it is today.
definitely still int he speculative stage per my understanding.
Shore 210
Too late.
talk to people who are about to retire or who currently receive some of these various entitlements. All you hear is that “they were promised to me, and i deserve them”.
The majority have no concept of the hole we are in or the magnitude of the entitlements we face.
Most people figure they have never seen the US go bankrupt so it couldnt ever happen.
Are you joining the Clotpound or Nompound?
“adjustment could happen over 10-15 years”
Folks, we dont have 10 years to sort out this mess. We dont likely even have until the end of the current administration in 3 years. We make huge changes SOON, or we are done in our current form.
If B.O. starts unilaterally freezing programs, not filling positions, and taking other actions to start closing the budget gap NOW, not FY 2011, which starts Oct. 1, things are going to go boom.
Look back over the past couple of years, you will not see any such dire forecasts on my part. The size of the current budget gap and the disconnect between reality and Official Washington’s perception of the state of things has changed my perception of how dangerous the current situation is.
It is like we are in a house with runaway CO2 levels. We are persuaded that all is fine wheres the increasing CO2 levels lulls us to inaction. The only thing that may now save us is an external alarm, such as foreigners refusing to buy our debt. As bad as that would be in the short term, it may be the only thing that saves the republic.
I wonder if China would accept Hawaii in exchange for what we owe them?
The freaking exponential function is going to slap us in the face.
“I wonder if China would accept Hawaii in exchange for what we owe them?”
Thx, I needed that. LOL.
“adjustment could happen over 10-15 years”
Shore, This was referring to lowering wages to spur manufacturing here, not talking about national debt. But i got your point. We’re done.
Except we still have nukes.
I wonder if china will accept a few torpedos to the midsection?
Doomed.
It’s all over folks.
Lights out.
221. Agree completely on all points, however, what people fail to realize is that this is being done by design masked in incompetence.
“It is engraved on the consciousness of all ambitious politicians in the US that the most basic principles of national life are rooted in the ethic of the confident, demanding, easily provoked middle class. What Mr Obama referred to repeatedly as “American values” in his speech to Congress are really the values of this class: self-reliance, self‑improvement, industriousness – and, as the Obama White House has found to its cost, antipathy to being bossed around by Big Government.
And when it does not hear what it likes, as Mr Obama and Mr Brown have both discovered, it gets very, very angry. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/7113381/Barack-Obama-finds-out-who-really-holds-power.html
Heading out for a skate see you guys later.
Nom and Clot would you guys want to get together, maybe at a Devils game?
In all seriousness I’m always looking for opportunities and have one or two ideas. You guys sound like you may have some free time or desire to look at different things. Banker, realtor, and tax attorney…what bad could come of that? If you guys go to games with chifi wrap him in too.
Next one I can definitely go to before the Olympic break is 2/12. We could meet up at the game in the Goal Bar or hit Forno’s pre-game for some clams in green sauce (mmmm).
Let me know.
Nom,
“The most glaring misstatement was that the tax on dividend income would go to 39.6% from 15%.”
I saw that as well.
I only shoot the messenger when the messenger swallows the kool-aid without even mixing it with water.
My father in-law is from the same camp as Qwerty/Jamil. Fox News is on 24/7 both in the house and on satellite radio in the car. He emails me the propaganda all the time. Bush could do no bad and Obama could do no good. He brings up the topic of death panels as often as John brings up hookers.
These people drive me crazy. They need to think for themselves for once. If QWERTY didn’t spend so much time perusing right wing krap all the time, he might have been able to notice the more than obvious flaws in the article in which he linked. Rather than trying to save the world by ousting the lefty socialist Democrats, he could serve himself much better by learning how to do his own taxes rather than paying some schmuck down at H & R Block to use TurboTax.
But what do I know? I’m just a registered Republican who completely understands why so many of us pulled the lever for that lefty socialist democrat.
Oh, and Qwerty…please tell your friends at party headquarters to stop sending those surveys that require a contribution in order to be read.
Veto 224
nukes are in a general sense useless. They only provided a significant advantage when very few had them and they require massive upkeep and infrastructure.
nation states would be committing suicide by using them, only rouge groups would have anything to gain from their use.
“I wonder if China would accept Hawaii in exchange for what we owe them?”
Shore,
We could always try again. Send Timmy, hat in hand, beg our bankers to increase their currency bands 10%. If it fails a second time, just ask them to step up their purchases. After all, he did tell chinese students that we believed in a strong currency.
Last time Timmy went begging to the Chinese he got laughed at by a bunch of 4th graders.
Next time they might steal his organs.
Hyde,
i just like using the word nukes whenever possible.
BC,
They have our national b@lls in a vise. They can help if they want, thus enhancing their own power, or they can let us collapse, hurting their exports to be sure but again enhancing their position relative to our own.
We need to get free of the need for external energy sources, we need to be able to make the things we NEED (not want, but need). If my friendly congressional representative does not get on the ball, this citizen may need to put up a challenge — not that he wants to.
Shore Guy (221):
I’m not trying to play devils advocate here, but I think we have a long way to go before Armageddon. As a percentage of GDP, our debt load doesn’t even have us in the top ten. I’m not saying our debt is justified, on the contrary I think our supposed leaders have gone about the crisis intervention in the worst way possible. But I don’t think we are approaching bankruptcy as a country. A major change in standard of living for all but the top 1%, absolutely. But I don’t think we will be waiting on lines for TP or bread before Obama’s second term.
Shore who is your Congressman.
Im in contact with Halfacres campaign in Dist 12.
“this citizen may need to put up a challenge — not that he wants to.”
Shore,
That’s great. We can then play No Retreat, No Surrender, at your campaign rally.
hey the markets up over 100 again.
whats the matter over here in this blog.
Recovery on track? Barry ’s got it all under control. The VP was on this afternoon,,jobs
created, no problem,,
The spring selling season is here. Hurry
Shore,
Chinese don’t like Hawaii that much because the ladies want light skin. Getting a tan makes them feel like they look like peasants - low class. Maybe if BO and Tiny Tim will hold the umbrellas to shield them from the sun.
By the way, I don’t worry about outright bankruptcy of the USG - almost all the debt is US$ denominated, and Bernanke is itching to print more. This is why I’m happy to carry a short US$ position via my new large 30-yr mortgage.
On the deficit=gas analogy, wouldn’t CO be a better fit than CO2? CO2 will mostly help your plants grow, while CO will put you to sleep then kill you.
Shore/BC are correct (imo) about the strategy that should be utilized going forwards. Unfortunately, it ain’t never gonna happen. Americans on the global level are like the Democrats on the federal level. They don’t have the chutzpah to do what is necessary to affect improvement. Admit globalization has failed and put up the same tariffs and unfair trade practices utilized by the Chinese on imports. We are getting our arses handed to us in this global game of hockey and DC has simply decided to not pull the goalie for an extra skater. And what the F are we doing in Afghanistan. Why are ‘WE’ the policemen of the world. Enough already. Let Europe and the emerging markets curtail the spread of radical islam. Osama was right when he said that he need not attack us again for we would bankrupt ourselves in the war on terror.
“If my friendly congressional representative does not get on the ball, this citizen may need to put up a challenge.”
Shore, Really? Do you have direct experience managing through a chapter 9 bankrupcy?
From the NYT’s article about loan modification - http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/02/proposals-to-reduce-mortgage-principal/
Consumer advocates said they were disappointed with the scope of the changes to the Making Home Affordable program because the changes didn’t address ways to reduce the loan principals of the millions of homeowners who owe more than their houses are now worth.
CONSUMER ADVOCATES MY ARSE. Pardon my shouting, but someone should tell these NAR sponsored Consumer Advocates that you can and should also advocate for consumers of today and tomorrow, not JUST the over-consumers of yesterday.
hyde (207)-
The desertification of the Midwest will be our version of the Dust Bowl…this time, courtesy of Archer-Daniels.
Don’t panic, but it’s already started. Take a look at western Nebraska…or areas of the Mississippi River valley where repeated flooding has stripped away the topsoil.
i do know one thing you have to play hard
ball with banks, they ain’t going to help
you. if anything they put the boot to your
head.
screw them
Although I bet Monsanto has a genetically-engineered grain that will grow in a sand dune, require no water and be Roundup-resistant.
Bet that stuff will make us all healthy.
I’m long popcorn.
the great spectacle of the USG trying to inflate the US$ to the mooon, in order to maintain the illusion of financial solvency should be quite entertaining
Need to pick up dome Butter options as well.
“I’m long popcorn.”
Monsanto popcorn?
Dupont makes awesome popcorn.
plg (212)-
HOW ABOUT ENDING BOTH THE WARS AND DISCONTINUING SPENDING MONEY THAT WE DON’T HAVE? YOUR IDEA IS COMPLETELY UNACCEPTABLE IN ANY FORM. TRY AGAIN.
“The increase suggested by Obama are reasomnable considering we are conducting two unfunded wars.”
Schump,
they have been testing a form of GM rice in asia that can pretty much do that
Schump, Shore,
It would be a hoot watching Europe try and back fill if the US pulled out and they suddenly had to clear up their own backyard.
I wonder how quickly they might change some of their “hollier-then thou” rhetoric, when they have to clean up the mess?
It would probably be a good thing int he long run.
Shore (221)-
Doubt it. Hawaii is a sinkhole of debt and mismanagement.
“I wonder if China would accept Hawaii in exchange for what we owe them?”
Schump
So Veto wants to wipe out consumer spending and you want to shut down the military industrial complex.
Do you both hate this nation? What else are we supposed to do? Thats about 90% of our GDP right there.
hyde (251)-
I think it would be hilarious to give the Russians some advance notice, then just fly home every single member of the US armed forces stationed anywhere in Europe.
Schump,
the russians would be like a 15yr old boy who just got a shot at a victoria’s secret model. they’d shoot their load before they even got their pants off.
They would promptly ensure the US president a lifetime supply of vodka
Schump 254
just europe? how about the world?
Just wanted to let you know that its not showing up properly on the BlackBerry Browser. Anyway, Im now on the RSS feed on my laptop, so thanks!
I think I miss Reinvestor…. (sigh)
sl
[227] leftwing
Heck yeah. I may even be able to get firm tickets for “business development” prospects. Heh.
Regardless, we can certainly talk. Email me at nomdeplumenj@gmail.com
[220] hyde
“Are you joining the Clotpound or Nompound?”
Well, if background and discussions are any indication, the food will be better at the Clotpound.
Assuming he has food there. Then the Nompound might be better.
187: Nonsense.
People,
lets talk about what’s really important. Lost starts tonight. I will try to remember to feed my children this season.
What do we need at the federal level? Defense, State, Treasury and the Supremes. Maybe the FDA. Anything else?
I think Rex Ryan is already doing a great job on Defense in New Jersey.
China doesn’t want to play ball, how about heavy tariffs on imports from China. I call it mutually assured destruction, we don’t buy their junk, no one else can or will, and the rug is pulled out from under them. The gov’t over there needs to be real careful or there could be revolution from with in.
Yes,
CO is what I should have typed. So much for typing at traffic lights and rest areas.
“Lost starts tonight.”
I went to lock this into my dvr last night. The whole screen practically turned red. Is it a 4 hour premier? or is the first half a re-cap?
BC,
I was just fiddling around with No Surrender on guitar on Friday.
The US is holding the gun, and has been the whole time. These countries should never forget that the US holds the physical and economic gun the their heads. Our economy is so big and connected to those other countries that our downfall will bring most of them with us.
Veto,
its a one hour recap and a 2 hr premier woo!
Speaking of guns, how is that guy Dwek still alive, is he in witness protection? I can’t imagine the unsavory pols and some of the people he ripped off don’t want his head. I have to believe there is a bounty on his head.
“The US is holding the gun, and has been the whole time. These countries should never forget that the US holds the physical and economic gun the their heads. Our economy is so big and connected to those other countries that our downfall will bring most of them with us.”
This is just a fiction of your imagination. If China coughs, the U.S gets a bird flu these days.
270: any trust to the rumor that there’s a “Jersey Shore” tie-in?
or truth
wing (227)-
Thanks, but can’t do 2/12. Son’s birthday party.
plume (260)-
If things get as tough as I expect, no amount of culinary skill will be able to enhance the kinds of stuff we’ll be eating. I mean, possum is just plain nasty.
Obama’s Job Proposals “Don’t Get to the Core of the Issue,” Lynn Tilton Says
In order to really stimulate job growth in this country, Tilton says “difficult decisions” must be made such as erecting the same kind of tariffs other countries have on imported goods, such as textiles, and forcing the Department of Defense of “Buy American.”
Tilton, whose firm owns both textile and aerospace companies, admits these proposals would help Patriarch Partners. But she’s dedicated to reviving the U.S. manufacturing sector, and says these and related efforts are necessary to level the playing field for U.S. goods, suggesting “free trade” is an oxymoron.
Finally, Tilton says she has “no clue” how President Obama plans to meet his goal of doubling U.S. exports in five years, wondering: “How weak do we let the dollar get so we can be the cheapest labor in the world?”
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/obama’s-job-proposals-%22don’t-get-to-the-core-of-the-issue%22-lynn-tilton-says-417280.html?tickers=MAN,%5EGSPC,%5Edji,TLT,TBT,UUP,XLI
273.
C’mon….this I have not heard.
OT: Our school district just mandated 3 furlough days for teachers. Their pay will be docked in April, May and June. The recent snow day and the flood day in September will count as two of the days.
“any truth to the rumor that there’s a “Jersey Shore” tie-in?
If so it proves that there is no plot to Lost. They are just making it up as they go along.
278: It must be true. Saw it on a blog. Much like this one.
G’day, fcukface:
“Today the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly held interest rates at 3.75%. No doubt this was in fear of the Australia’s enormous housing bubble that exceeds the height of the bubble that long ago burst in the US. 20 economists predicted the RBA would hike. Not a single one predicted anything else.
Fear in the board of governors over the pending crash is palpable. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd did not learn a single thing from the US and the disastrous policies of Greenspan. He gave one last goose to the housing market with $14,000 tax credits in a foolish attempt to stem the tide of the global recession that started two years ago.
Prime Minister Rudd brags about Australia’s ability to duck the recession. It did not work. All Rudd did was delay the inevitable, fueling an even bigger housing bubble. The bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash, and rest assured Australia is headed for a housing crash.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/pool-of-greater-housing-fools-in.html
Veto
if its anything, probably a Jersey Shore on the TV in the background sort of thing, not a major plot point.
“Saw it on a blog. Much like this one.”
Relo, this is good reason to be sceptical.
“probably a Jersey Shore on the TV in the background”
If i see ‘the situation’ casted as one of ‘the others’ im done with that show for good.
I think the Aussies will prove as adept as we are at strategic default, walkaways, begging for bailouts, etc. From the same article in #282:
“Just as happened in the United States with subprime borrowers, Australia’s first-home buyers struggle as interest rates rise.
Almost half of first-home buyers lured into the market by the Rudd Government’s $14,000 grant are struggling to meet their mortgage repayments and many are already in arrears on their loans.
Thousands of young home buyers are using credit cards or other loans to meet obligations, while those in “severe stress” are missing payments.
Just weeks after the grant was withdrawn, a survey of more than 26,000 borrowers conducted by Fujitsu Consulting has found 45 per cent of first-home owners who entered the market during the past 18 months are experiencing “mortgage stress” or “severe mortgage stress”.
“The dream of home ownership has turned sour for many thousands of first-home buyers now that the reality of rising interest rates is kicking in,” said Fujitsu Consulting managing director Martin North.
“Rising utility costs and school fees are also cited as reasons for hardship, and many first-home owners are living without proper furniture or carpets as they divert all their cash to their monthly repayments.”
During the past 18 months, more than 135,000 first-home buyers have entered the market, encouraged by the generous grants and stamp-duty relief.
As a result, more than 50 per cent of first-home owners are forecast to be in the “mortgage stress” category by the end of this year.
“This was a disaster waiting to happen,” Steve Keen, professor of economics at the University of NSW, said yesterday.
“The grant panicked first-home buyers to rush into the market, which pushed prices up by far more than the grant itself. Now we have buyers falling behind with their repayments as rates increase and thousands of owners exposed to the danger of bankruptcy as the situation deteriorates.”
My source is beyond reproach.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The Copenhagen climate talks went nowhere. The Senate’s attempt to pass a global warming bill appears stuck. But that’s doesn’t mean greenhouse gas laws aren’t coming.
Obama’s climate change police
The Environmental Protection Agency, spurred by a Supreme Court ruling, is racing to fill the void. As early as March, the EPA is planning to cap greenhouse gases from things like power plants and large factories, essentially doing what Senate Democrats want, without a messy vote.
Some say it’s a great idea. It could put a serious dent in greenhouse gas emissions and go a long way to cleaning up the environment. Others say it could jeopardize investment in industry and hurt job creation.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/economy/epa_global_warming/index.htm
Explain the logic to this one.
re: #271 - Dweck must be most worried about the rabbis he squealed on since Dweck isn’t getting off 100% he will do some time in Federal lockup. These rabbis were trafficking in human organs and even though they have 613 commandments the frum people aren’t know for their forgiveness since they skipped the second book after all. You would think in the slammer after he is forced to “marry” someone he is goona squeal like a pig beg for forgiveness and protection from the very same rabbis. Who else is he gonna hang out with the Mexican gangs?
288: I’d imagine that’s gotta bode well for domestic manufacturing.
Woodbridge school board eyes massive layoffs, program cuts and privatization
WOODBRIDGE — Township school officials Monday evening began sharpening their budget knives in anticipation of a potential bloodbath that may include slashing dozens of jobs and school programs, privatizing services and even shutting a school.
http://www.mycentraljersey.com/article/20100202/EDUCATION/100202068/-1/newsfront/Woodbridge-school-board-eyes-massive-layoffs-program-cuts-and-privatization
Cant wait to hear the government tit suckers cry foul. Take the pain you lazy bastards.
Force McGravy to teach at one of those schools for free. In shackles.
After all, he’s a product of Woodbridge schools.
Is McGravy a minister yet?
What a great tax dodge.
291. Who needs schools anyways.
[276] clot
I intend to follow my sister’s lead. She is raising chickens on her Nompound.
154. At least it wasn’t Hershey.
130. Yes. Yes he is.
Not NJ, but expect more of the same . . .
“Ames Safety Envelope Co., a Somerville [Mass.] company founded in 1919, said it has agreed to be acquired by Tab Products Co. LLC, a move that is expected to result in the loss of about 150 jobs . . . .
Tab then plans to integrate the production of Ames products into a Tab facility in Wisconsin . . . .
One reason why the company is being sold is that “computer-driven digital solutions have increasingly replaced the company’s principal markets of X-ray and medical filing products,” the release said; the high costs of manufacturing in the Northeast were also a factor.”
#286 schumpeter,
I’ve been saying for years on this blog that Australia Is in a housing bubble.
I have no doubt Australia will eventually succeed at buggering its currency, too.
I had this hope that the AUD would be immune for awhile, but it’s inevitable they’ll get caught up in the great race to the bottom.
291. Al
I thought it was all for the children? What will happen to them? Surely a few million can be found to save the one school and countless government workers.
291- I don’t pretend to know anything about that town’s school systems and school programs but I don’t see any mention of cutting back any of the administrator’s jobs or salaries. Is there perhaps too much pork at the higher level?
Like speed limits, “cap” limits become the new minimums.
School budget increases will go up 4% a year, every year, despite the fact that there is little inflation.
From the Record:
Ridgewood BOE sets tax increase ‘at cap’
Board of Education (BOE) members approved a motion, in a 3-2 vote, to keep next year’s budget increase “at cap.”
The motion was presented by BOE Vice President Robert Hutton at a meeting Monday night.
The aim of Hutton’s motion was to provide administrators, who will have to scour their costs line-by-line to find cuts to fill an anticipated $2.5 million budget gap, parameters to work within.
Hutton also hoped to eliminate a discussion topic – whether or not the school budget can be brought in below the 4 percent tax levy increase allowed by the state.
Nom, plenty of feral chickens here in Cayo Hueso. damn rooster starts up at 3am.
re: #303 - Grim to go above CAP the towns needs get approval from the State, and Under the law, if a district must make reductions to stay within its spending cap, it may reduce only “administrative” costs or programs that are inefficient or ineffective.
njescapee - what is the name of that outdoor restaurant down there in Key West that is designed to represent a third world backyard with odd lot lawn chairs and chickens running wild?
Blue Heaven. think it is supposed to be more hippie than 3rd world but hey,
excellent blueberry pancakes.
since we are posting spending charts, here is a fun one:
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4b64638f0000000000015f39-620-345/us-government-spending-versus-revenue.jpg
Another fun one:
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/2b37544bd14ad7499f4f1300/debttogdp3png.png
we’ve seen this before, but does this end any way but with significant pain for everyone?
Why the Government Wants to Hijack Your 401(k)
To say that I’m “outraged” doesn’t come close to describing the emotions I experience every time I think about the government’s latest hare-brained scheme. According to widespread media reports, both the U.S. Treasury Department and the Department of Labor plan are planning to stage a public-comment period before implementing regulations that would require U.S. savers to invest portions of their 401(k) savings plans and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) into annuities or other “steady” payment streams backed by U.S. government bonds.
Folks, there’s only one reason these agencies would do such a thing - the nation’s creditors think that U.S. government bonds are a bad bet and don’t want to buy them anymore. So like a grifter who’s down to his last dollar, the administration is hoping to get its hands on our hard-earned savings before the American people realize they’ve had the wool pulled over their eyes … once again.
….Facing an uphill battle and increasingly skeptical buyers, the government is changing tactics and targeting the biggest pile of money available as a means of dealing with its fiscal follies - the $3.6 trillion sitting in U.S. retirement plans, including 401(k) plans.
http://moneymorning.com/2010/01/27/retirement-plans/
#276 Clot
I was planning on bidding on your canned butter and Balsalmic contracts after TSHTF. Possum a la Berrue Noir might just work.
Grim,
What is the average # of post per thread to your blog and what is the record # of posts in a single thread.
Are there any factors that have been correlated to # of posts?
312.
Friday armegeddon/oblivion and armaments talk is always a popular one. 400+ usually.
veto,
this ones for you
Property Values Projected To Fall 12 Percent In 2010
by Michael David White
NewObservations.net projects residential real estate prices will fall 12 percent nationwide in 2010.
Our average of four major indexes predicts a total fall in prices of 34% from peak to stable trend. The total fall of 34% is based upon a current loss across four number sets of 19%.
http://newobservations.net/2010/01/27/property-values-projected-to-fall-12-percent-in-2010/
how did this get on the MSM???
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/35150411#35150411
“excellent blueberry pancakes.”
Escapee, those arent blueberries.
Veto
from the same link:
Our highest priority must be to bring down the house of cards. We should encourage foreclosures. We should encourage default. We should bring overhead down. Our first goal must be inexpensive housing.
Are there any factors that have been correlated to # of posts?
In the past, big DOW down days used to generate lots of comments.
Threads with trolls used to generate a stir too.
Overall blog traffic, not comments, roughly correlates with the seasonal sales/contracts trends.
Comments activity has been picking up here steadily over the past few weeks.
Hard to say what the biggest one-day was. I want to say we’ve hit 500 comments in a day before. The Pesche Walk-Away thread was certainly the biggest one day in a while.
grim
just emailed you. mls 2742943 and 2742945 can you give me addresses?
thanks
Welfare country of Germany
http://www.bild.de/BILD/news/bild-english/world-news/2010/02/01/jobless-for-36-years/day-in-life-of-germanys-most-shameless-unemployed-man-arno-duebel.html
“Property Values Projected To Fall 12 Percent In 2010″
hyde, look at this quote from that link. It seems that your and clot’s forecast is in there too.
“The most radical prediction is that values will fall 51% from peak to stable trend.”
That guy stole my analysis but notice mine was posted to scribd by at least a week earlier that his was posted. He tries to use long term growth rates over inflation to make his forecast like i did but he botched it if you ask me because he gives no specifics of how he comes up with his long term rate over inflation which is the key to the whole projection. Oh well. pretty funny. I like how he compares the different indeces. Its interesting to see that they differ greatly.
“We should encourage foreclosures. We should encourage default.”
Nice. freedy would concur.
Does it say anything about stiffing innocent waitresses in that article?
I like this the best…
My prediction is that the leaders at our Treasury and the Fed will finish as the bigger or the biggest fools. They are waging nuclear war to maintain bubble pricing on 129 million housing units (If you are like me, you say that sentence, and you know that the policy is dead wrong.). Only an academic bureaucrat could make such a choice and believe in it. And the financial press has not even one word to say against this lunatic fantasy. The blind cover the dumb and vice versa.
This part is funny too…
Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner prove that book learning makes you dumb and government work makes you slow. Don’t put your faith in them or their experience. They haven’t spent enough time in the real world.
If you own real estate and you can sell, sell it. If you want to buy, make sure you are staying for 10 years and insist on a great deal. Make sure you can live with losing 10 percent or 20 percent or 30 percent of the price that you pay for your home.
The risk inherent in our current real estate market is far beyond the tolerance of 98% of would-be buyers. That means you. You can get screwed badly if you buy now. Don’t do it. Don’t put yourself in the poor house.
veto - buy now or be unable to default on your home loan and get your house for free forever.
#299 Safe
“I’ve been saying for years on this blog that Australia Is in a housing bubble.”
When you have full recourse loans, there is less chance of JingleMail. It does happen, but you have to leave the country to never return. Prices stay stable, the loan terms go out to cover affordabiliy.
“buy now or be unable to default on your home loan and get your house for free forever.”
Ruggles this is true.
But as a renter, i can always order, cut and run at the local fast food drive-through when i get mad at my bank for od charges.
The federal government has taken extraordinary measures to stop the fall. Given the massive power of the United States Treasury and the Federal Reserve, those efforts may win. Their steps to artificially maintain prices center on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA making essentially every new mortgage loan in the United States today.
Without their lending, real estate prices in the United States would fall dramatically. The author estimates prices would fall 50% to 75% from today’s level if Fannie, Freddie, and the FHA stopped making loans. Private investment in mortgage loans has disappeared. Without government lending most purchases would have to be made from the buyer’s savings. Buyers would have to pay all cash.
We are in a radical real estate depression hidden from us by massive government fixes.
Intelligence Officials Warn Attempted Al Qaeda Attack Months Away
WASHINGTON — Al Qaeda can be expected to attempt an attack on the United States in the next three to six months, senior U.S. intelligence officials told Congress Tuesday.
The terrorist organization is deploying operatives to the United States to carry out new attacks from inside the country, including “clean” recruits with a negligible trail of terrorist contacts, CIA Director Leon Panetta said. Al Qaeda is also inspiring homegrown extremists to trigger violence on their own, Panetta added.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/02/intelligence-officials-warn-attempted-al-qaeda-attack-months-away/
This is the false flag event which everyone should be anticipating. The drum beat will continue. If you are keeping up with whats going on you should be seeing this for yourself. Dont worry about the event itself. Worry about the gov’s response afterwards. Might think about moving extra cash out of the bank in case its a big one.
72 - Sean, re xanadu, I hope you don’t think Secaucus was ever a decent outlet center–coulda been but they never really tried.
I totally agree with you but they say they’re putting retail in that thing and I’m trying to figure out what might work as a viable destination–something you can’t get in bergen county, manhattan or palisades center already. I say upscale worldclass outlet center–d&d building/ short hills mall stuff. Include a mix of regular destination outlets we don’t already have: cabelas outlet, ll bean outlet, restoration hardware outlet. Throw in a wegmans, hello kitty superstore, and complimentary prostitution services and maybe they’ve got a winner.
Veto
perhaps he took the basis for his work from here.
When i was playing with unemployment projections last spring a few different blogs posted the charts as their own.
damn lurkers. no originality.
ruggles (331)-
I say turn it into a casino, pr0stitution supercenter, world’s biggest liquor store, firing range, hunt-for-humans stadium (think indoor Running Man), rollerball rink, ski-jump-while-on-fire, comfort center for drunken Jets fans and, oh yes…a Wal-Mart.
Here’s an interesting chart from CWS related to our deficit conversation covered earlier today.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/image898.png
Who needs to watch Biggest Loser?
Jim Chanos here, in a 1-hour screed, detailing the collapsing Chinese empire. Delightful:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chanos-chinese-overheating-and-overindulgence
I guess my idea of combining alcohol, Jets fans and firearms at Xanadu might be a tad ambitious.
Here comes the UCC monster. Where I am, you can follow these filings online, right along with lis pendens notices on homeowners. The UCC invocation is a kill shot to businesses that lever against accounts receivable.
“There’s an interesting type of Margin Call that I think we’re about to see take place in great numbers within the banking industry, specifically within the business lending units. When a bank makes a business line of credit it files a UCC-1 filing against all business assets including accounts receivable.
When a business becomes over leveraged and sales fall they begin to look like that are not going to make it financially. If a business owner fails to demonstrate how and when they can rectify the situation, usually with capital injections, the bank’s primary tool to recoup their loan outstanding is to perfect their interest in those business assets.
They will notify the accounts (clients) of that business they are perfecting their interest in those accounts and they are to pay the bank directly. The bank will also notify them, that failure to do so or paying the borrower does not relieve them of their liability to pay that account to the bank and could end up paying it twice.
At the same time, the bank will notify the borrower in this case that if he receives payment from his account receivables he’s to forward that to the bank, and to not do so is an act of fraud.
This is the business owner’s “Margin Call”. I don’t think business owners understand the recourse a bank has, why and when they will use it, and how important it is for a business to keep their business lender happy and work with the bank as much as possible. They also don’t realize that when a bank notifies their clients it raises such a stink as to their solvency; their clients might just choose to do business elsewhere and the notification itself can put a business out of business.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/california-banker-on-business-loan.html
#334 And a Waffle House, for the morning after.
Perhaps they can open a new “Two Guys?” That place rocked.
#340 And a Great Eastern?
Great Eastern I don’t remember. How about a “Cloth World” or “Grants?”
Definitely need a Maryland Fried Chicken, and perhaps a giant pawn shop.
Or a Korvettes or Bradlees?
Oh, oh…check cashing bodega.
Finally, some sort of giant, all-you-can eat human feeding trough. Anybody ever been to a Luby’s cafeteria?
You eat enough of that food, and you’ll develop a third chromosome.
Spencer Gifts
Orange Julius
Heaven
Ani DiFranco killing it at the State Theatre tonight.
Cry
Anyone catch the David Stockman (Reagen’s budget-ier) interview on Cavuto (on fox biz channel)? Very good interview. He seems to be among the global market crash in the next two years crowd.
Katie Couric pushes for human microchipping on national tv.
If you are looking for an express elevator to hell here it is. The mark of the beast.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVctWVTA3gI
“Ani DiFranco killing it at the State Theatre tonight.”
I have never heard her. Is she like anyone a geezer like me might recognize?
“David Stockman ”
Had it righ about Government’s propensity to spend every available dollar.
Great post but its all over man….
What is considered eligible for Affordable Housing in Atlanta, GA?