From the Star Ledger:
Trump says he may quarantine parts of N.J. in coronavirus crisis
President Donald Trump said Saturday he is considering imposing a two-week quarantine on parts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
New York has more cases of COVID-19 than any other state (52,318), with New Jersey second (11,124).
“Some people would like to see New York quarantined because it’s a hotspot — New York, New Jersey,” Trump told reporters at the White House before departing for Norfolk, Virginia, to see the hospital ship USNS Comfort set off for the New York area, according to a White House transcript.
“Maybe one or two other places; certain parts of Connecticut quarantined,” the president added. “I’m thinking about that right now. We might not have to do it, but there’s a possibility that sometime today we’ll do a quarantine — short-term, two weeks — on New York, probably New Jersey, certain parts of Connecticut.”
Gov. Phil Murphy said Saturday he and Trump did not discuss a possible quarantine when the two spoke by phone Friday.
“I’ve got no more color on it,” Murphy said in Trenton during his daily coronavirus press briefing. ”There’s no question the greater New York metropolitan area is the number one hot spot. … Until further notified, we’re gonna keep doing exactly what we’re doing. We believe the data and our facts are on our side.”
E-ZPass only: No cash being accepted for New Jersey Turnpike, Garden State Parkway tolls
The state Turnpike Authority followed the direction of the Port Authority, which also made its remaining three crossings cashless Sunday in order to help prevent the spread of coronavirus.
For travelers who don’t have E-ZPass, the car’s license plate will be scanned and a bill will be sent to the address registered with the vehicle. The bill should be at the cash rate, and no additional administrative fees will be administered, the authority said.
The Turnpike Authority held hearings on a proposed plan last week that includes a $900 million capital improvement project to convert all of its tolls to cashless.
“There are about 350 full-time and 540 part-time collectors on the turnpike and the parkway. They will continue to be paid,” a Turnpike Authority spokesman said.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/transportation/2020/03/25/no-cash-new-jersey-turnpike-garden-state-parkway-tolls/5077526002/
I returned a lease car some time ago and I swear the dealer said he’d take care of everything. My plate ended up on a black BMW and by the $3,300 trail of ez-Pass fees some arsehole out of Queens was Ubering using my plates. The EzPass booth scanned my old plate and sent me the bill. Took a few months by NY Thruway and NJ Turnpike and the PA did right by me and I was able to all $3,300 waived. At one point he was driving over the Throgsneck (RFK?) five times a day, keeping all those Uber added tolls.
My understanding is that ALL booths in NYC are tolls-by-mail.
You should have gone after BMW…… your understanding should have been that someone at BMW needed to be fired and brought up on charges…..
http://nj-ne.ws/ukGi0Nr
NJ travel advisory, not the quarantine by WF
That sucks, Boomer. Glad it worked out eventually. I find it interesting that they can quickly convert to an ezpass only / send you a bill in the mail system (without admin fee) … so 1) what’s the excuse for not doing this 10 years ago? 2) what do they need $900MM for? What’s left to do? All I can think remove the tollbooths themselves and build those trusses. I guess that’s what it costs.
The number of permits, commissions et al required (Page 29-30) is utterly ridiculous.
https://www.njta.com/media/5179/proposed-2020-capital-improvement-program.pdf
Joyce,
A very astute observation.
In the past, when one would drive through an EZ-Pass lane and the tag was not read – irrespective of who was at fault for not properly having it read – ezpass would take a picture of the vehicle, locate the registration, send out a bill for the toll AND a $50 fine. I know many of you received this at least once.
Wait a minute, so the infrastructure to photograph, pull plate off photo and send you a letter with the $50 fine was there ALL ALONG, then why the $50 surcharge for sending the letter when all that had to be done was a cross reference of the offending plate against plates with ez-pass accounts. Fkn criminal!
It’s as if someone linked two databases and ended what must have been tens of millions of dollars in fines. More probably.
1/2 a billion, eh? Seems legit.
How is the spring house selling season going?
shameless plug:
http://www.thefallswineroom.com
can deliver nj tuesday of this week.
gotta supply your own .223 and pugil sticks
Never leave plates on a lease turn in, ever. Take them off, bring them home and cut them up. I found NJ EZ Pass customer service to be mean and nasty. Plenty of other states to get them from and better terms re:transponders.
People will soon stop paying mortgages again. Credit card delinquencies likely to skyrocket.
I know, we are all janitors here, and financial advice should be largely ignored.
But someone explain to me why I shouldn’t expect cruise lines, RCL, CCL, NCLH to BK?
I know there are some devout cruisers on this board. When would you be willing to pay $ to go back on a cruise ship?
I can’t say about cruise ships, but my wife is bent on going to Sandals for the trip we had to delay for this past week as soon as it can get rescheduled.
From the hot seat, to get your drinking day started early. My observations:
-The good side those of you budgetary financial hawks, you are not going to have to worry about Social Security and Medicare expenditures in 10 yrs.
-Don’t invest in any health insurance company, they will be following the cruise ships soon enough. Whether because of directly insuring or Medicare Advantage insurance – having someone for 4 weeks on the ventilator and then dying, with the last 2 weeks likely dialysis is very expensive.
-Lack of supplies and the incredible pig headiness of hospital managers which keep treating this like a regular infection instead of treating like a true biological/haz mat event. You are going to need the military to override this mentality, which means federal takeover, which means nationalization of the problem (like the WW1 take over of the railroads by the US Army), which is an anathema right now to the ideology zeitgeist of the monied ruling interest of both parties. They are yet to acknowledge that there is a river in front of them, never mind accepting the crossing of it.
-Which leads to believe the mindset at this moment at 1600Penn is between what do I do, and let god sort them out. The vibes I’m picking is a severe callousness, third world like, where the goal is to get it over asap and get equivalent of herd immunity. Epidemiologically this means have as many people get sick asap, to h3ll with consequence and return to past normalcy asap too.
homeboken – Deflationary recession for travel and tourism overall as prices have now fallen to where they never have been before except for perhaps post 9/11. Consider the debt reputation for their entire supply chain and labor force as they adopt strategies to survive as there will be no bailout for them except for the $50 billion airline lifeline. The rest are expendable in the Wall St and Washington Calculus.
Companies have taken up strategies to preserve cash to weather this one out.
Some aren’t waiting and won’t be paying the rent due this week. Other things to consider about debt reputation. This is going to hurt more than the Housing Recession, fixed income securities, sovereign debt etc all are going to be stressed.
https://media.thinknum.com/articles/these-are-the-cheesecake-factorys-landlords-who-wont-be-getting-rent-on-april-1/
States and municipalities will pay settlements for this and other civil rights violations.
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/28/dhs-memo-says-gun-stores-essential-business-gun-ri/
DHS memo says gun stores ‘essential’ business as gun-rights groups sue states closing them
SundayMorning IrishCreamCoffe,
Didn’t I see you outside the Lincoln Tunnel at around 2:00 AM holding up a sign that said:
“The gods are going to battle the frost giants, and we are all going to die!!”
Fast you got to get up to speed man. This is not the board of 2019, we are at a different level for the foreseeable future.
https://youtu.be/5hfYJsQAhl0
You are about to trip away for the foreseeable future;
https://youtu.be/ebmwYqoUp44
My wife’s 60+ workplace colleague is incredibly annoyed that her cruise/trip was cancelled. She cannot wait to get out there after all this “craziness” is done.
If you enjoy watching the world burn, this is really your [BEEEEP] year.
You know people say NYC has it hardest, but IMO there’s a certain level of urgency and seriousness that is being imparted on those living here. I’m not sure I’d rather be shaking hands and sharing my dip in bumblefark somewhere thinking it can’t happen to me.
Last thought, what a fast bifurcation of classes, eh? White collars couped up at home while instacart delivery workers out there picking up groceries for them. I read about all this outrage about “workers” at these companies not receiving PPE or support. All these SaaS/PaaS app companies are basically in the business of designing products. The human drones which interact and use the product were never intended to fall under the umbrella of employees. You do you out there.
Really Joyce?
” so 1) what’s the excuse for not doing this 10 years ago? ”
Are you trying to get me riled up? I’m barely over the 50 million dollar salt sheds.
When does Xanadon’t open?
In other news Trump’s puppet physician upped his death estimate from 80K to between 100K and 200K, which was my original estimate. But I erred in my math. I based my model on police state suppression of the disease. We are doing less than Italy. Gotta figure the real number will be 4 or 5 times that, no?
Just wait for the numbers tomorrow when all of the sites that don’t report over the weekend report their numbers.
Body bags?
Also, I think that post from Clotpoll was spam.
The spouse’s cousin is on a ventilator in ICU. Just got the word. He works in the medical industry in NYC. I’m curious to know if underlying conditions are the only factor in severity?
Apparently, Nintendo Switch is sold out everywhere. Figured it might be a way to prevent my kids from killing each other.
I’m curious to know if underlying conditions are the only factor in severity?
There are 2 issues.
The patient – it seems to go for some weakness in the immune system. If you are off somewhere, somehow it has a big foothold. It stops at death, because after the lungs, it goes after kidneys and other organs.
The system. – Like I said early. Look up Haz Mat/Biological scene management. There are hot/cold/decontamination zones and strike force/teams doing the work.
In their moronic ways, everyone in the hospital environment is treating this as if was a stronger klebsiella, c diff, etc.instead a continuing event more like radiation dust than the usual hospital stuff.
But, you don’t have equipment, gear or systems in effect because the aforementioned ways is being handled. So everyone is very, very afraid. Intubating and putting people on ventilators that could likely go on other modalities, because at least in the seal circuit keeps all the virus within the filters.
So take a look at the fat boy physician assistant that was the first to have it in NJ. Got treated at Hackensack, because it was the first one, they had equipment and negative pressure rooms and handle the situation responding moment to moment to the factual (no fake news here) clinical evidence in front of them, I believe he was taken care with High Flow Nasal Cannula and BIPAP machine.
Now have 500 of him and no equipment and everyone panics, and the easiest thing is intubation, stay at a distance and let god sort it out.
Yes, this is the sad state of affairs right now. Are you going to sacrifice your life for a conglomeration of people whose mean age is 70.
Lib – I think we are much further along with therapeutics (Colroaquine, Remdisivir, etc).
Gentleman’s bet – I’ll set to O/U at 20,000 and take the under. I hope I’m right but admit, there is relentless optimism in me.
” I’m curious to know if underlying conditions are the only factor in severity?”
I think a correlation, but not causationt, between viral load and severity has been established.
ELI5: If you pass through a small contaminated area and get a low load in your system, you body has time to hit it as the low initial viral load multiplies itself. If you are in a medical setting and people are coughing in your face all day your initial seeding is much likely higher, it is more likely to overwhelm the body.
MIT releases plans to build a ventilator for $100
https://scitechdaily.com/mit-posts-free-plans-online-for-an-emergency-ventilator-that-can-be-built-for-100/
Plenty of empty beds in other cities.
“Transporting patients to other facilities would save thousands of lives if we can get them to places that have staff to care for them, beds and ventilators”
Blue look at the second photo in your link, cracked laptop screen, gotta love those hardcore innovators never letting style get in the way of innovation. Steve jobs would never to press like tgat
Lib – Number, Numbers, Numbers…..
Been to Italy many times. they aren’t sprawled out like here, and don’t have the multidimensional aka generations living together factor in every home
Ae we not at 15 days? Deaths are 2,056 right now, so how does that grow to 200,000?
Anecdotal Patient Zero in NJ now admits he got the Wuhan Wheeze in Shanghai.
https://twitter.com/JamesCaiNJNYC/status/1243575492747370497
My point about patient zero is he is a fuking liar, and numbers in China are much much worse.
Stay home. We will rebuild.
I will add that the cousin is in the administrative end of the business and not directly on the front line per say. The cousin holds a Ph.d geared towards the counseling end of the spectrum. I don’t know the level of contact involved with patients of various illnesses, mental or physical. What’s scary with all this is hearing the stories of friends of family and friends who contracted this disease when not involved directly with patients of any sort AND taking all precautions advised. It’s like we literally have to sit in a corner for weeks, isolate and just hope it passes.
re: plans to build a ventilator..I love the fact that people are trying, real caring people.
I doubt we shall see any of these used in hospitals…
Did the latest legislation include tort reforms?
NOPE.
I was in a photo op once for Rutgers a pharmaceutical engineering brochure. I told them I could do all kinds of stuff that would be visually dazzling and showed them my lab with high powered optics. They didn’t like the “clutter”. The brought me back to an empty lab space that looked completely unused and gave me a beaker of blue sand and said “pour this”. Of course, they put a white coat on me as well. I never wore a white labcoat in my life.
I seriously doubt Mr. Cai was a true patient zero in NJ. There were people running around with this bug left and right weeks before.
Juice, read the tweet carefully.
He said “no single health care work infected with the virus in Shanghai, China”
Facemask,
Could it that the true required PPE – a Level B/C Haz Mat Suit and HEPA Filter full head hard mask are built just down the road?
While we got to place orders and wait until some 3rd world hole or likely the same factory up the road in China makes it.
Well, the boomers really are getting some Karma. It just touched Wall Street, how soon before it gets a Goldman or Chase ruling class golden boy?
Anecdotal Patient Zero in NJ now admits he got the Wuhan Wheeze in Shanghai.
Rumor was he was there studying the ancient arts of kung flu.
The lies about doing “far more testing than anyone in the world” really irk me.
I know relative, absolute, per capita aren’t taught in trade schools but the per thousand testing rate lags far behind and will be the undoing of these efforts
Blue that is great, unfortunately it’s the marketing folks that rule. Btw I’m reading seed sales up 250% year of year , and the term victory garden is popping up in news stories.
Blue you are a polish grandmothers dream. All that talk of fruit trees and gardening they would eat you up.
SAWR. You are wrong.
“Well, the boomers really are getting some Karma. It just touched Wall Street, how soon before it gets a Goldman or Chase ruling class golden boy?”
Not soon enough.
A thoughtful essay from Bloomberg,
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-29/coronavirus-pandemic-puts-moral-philosophy-to-the-test?srnd=premium
Juice.
The numbers. This is how I look at it. 15 days and we haven’t done one goddamn thing to stop the spread of this virus. Do you think it’s safe to do take out? Go grocery shopping? Let your kids hang out with kids from other families? Because that is still going on with regularity. We took a sanity drive tonight to Eagle Rock. D is starting to get his PTSD back as he remembers isolation all to well. About the only thing that breaks his sadness is a car ride. Admiring Bloomfield Avenue, still way to many people doing take out. Still way too many people shopping at Whole Foods. Driving past Chipotle in West Orange, at least 20 people in there in line to get their take out. This is at 8pm on a Sunday night. And where the virus is still in the under 2K infected, people are not even making believe they are separating.
So what is 14 days? I know of two people who went for testing. Five days after they were tested, they were told their specimens were lost. Nine out of ten people who want the test can’t get one. Even the lucky one who gets one will not get their results back for 5-7 days if the labs don’t lose it. So the numbers you are seeing are at least 7 days old. We need to increase the testing sites by a scale of 10 to even begin to get to the real number. And those who are testing positive are just entering and beginning to overwhelm our hospitals. The death rate will increase exponentially once we cannot treat the sick. Not just those with the virus, but those who need regular services. CHOP, for example, is already delaying routine cancer scans. Those who require sedation must weight 5 days for their virus test results to come back before they will put you under. Most therapies that require contact have been cancelled. Lots and lots of people with cancer are going to die. Even those who need regular dialysis are probably doomed as machines will not be available for all. Need blood or platelets? Good luck finding them. There has been zero preparation for this. We are worse than Italy. They separated. They needed a police approval to go the doctors, drug store or grocery store. We are Italy in the tri-state area and we need to take the hoops down in public parks to keep us from infecting each other. And all of the models are based on countries who handled the spread of the disease utilizing draconian techniques. It is no surprise that we are in the first inning here with a population 1/4 that of China and have already surpassed them in the number of cases. The deaths are just starting. Those numbers are going to surge shortly. And just wait for the other cities in this country to get started. Until the tri-state gets all of the tests needed to meet its needs and until the rates of infection growth show a sign of slowing, you are wasting your time trying to use models. Why? WE ARE THE ONLY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD WHICH HAS CHOSEN NOT TO FIGHT THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS!
Name names…
Ah yes…… it was only a matter of time before they surfaced….
While there’s no direct evidence linking global warming with Covid-19, animals are moving to cooler areas, according to Aaron Bernstein of Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. That’s brought humans in closer contact with them and the diseases they carry, he said. Epidemiologists say the novel coronavirus originated in bats.
Bendell is more willing to make the connection between coronavirus and climate change. He says that a warmer habitat may have caused the bats to alter their movements, putting them in contact with humans.
Partly because of that connection, Bendell said governments should commit only to “fair and green” bailouts, and shouldn’t save carbon-intensive industries such as airlines, oil, gas, coal or cement. Instead, they should let the companies approach bankruptcy and nationalize one or two of them to get them aligned with national climate policies.
“Keeping the most polluting industries afloat will increase the likelihood of future pandemics,” Bendell said.
Deblasio out for a stroll today
https://twitter.com/SBANYPD/status/1244345901386207232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthedonald.win%2Fp%2FFMO9jI7H%2Fdebalsio-heads-on-run-in-prospec%2Fc%2F
So Eddie, the thing with SARS-CoV2 is that it is truly a new virus for humans, only a handful of viruses use the ACE2 receptor, which are in the lungs, heart, kidneys, arteries, and intestines. As you can see the virus attacks some very important organs, so the key is a persons immune response. So people with weakened immunes systems cannot mount a defense, the organs are overwhelmed and ARDS and organ failure sets in. Some people with healthy immune systems, no underlying conditions because this virus is so wildly different from any virus they have had before that it either fails to adequately respond or the immune system actually goes into cytokine storm which harms health tissue as well as the virus. I’m not in the health field but it strikes me that this is where we are with this. Anti-viral compounds administered at the onset of any symptoms will be key to containing this.
Scientific American Comments on Industrial Protein Farming:
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/one-root-cause-of-pandemics-few-people-think-about/
Lib, maybe this is all some type of wakeup call for the nation to gets its house in order for a much more rapid response to these types of things. In the future, we will likely see something that travels faster and has much greater and quicker lethality. All of the equipment that we do not have today in the future, needs to be strategically warehoused with a ready to go distribution plan and assets to carry out distribution. A czar overseeing it all and the ability to start the process with a phone call or push of a button. The military seems equipped for the job. Time to bring manufacturing back to our shores, no ifs ands or buts. US based companies enjoy a very good environment with which to operate. Stable democracy, excellent work base and while they need to make money, they need to give back and if that means jobs and production in this country at a slightly lower profit, so be it. No more buybacks. Airlines should be allowed to go BK. Capital One just blew an oil trade, $1B. Big bank just said it won’t foreclose or evict or repo cars for the time being. Risk cannot be priced any longer. Low interest rates mask hurdle rates and bailouts take away downside. A big part of good decision making is tied to risk analysis and artificially surpassed risk creates havoc.
Does Donald Trump have an ounce of credibility? Is there anyone who can take him seriously at this point? Would any of you who still defend Trump for his handling of this crisis care to provide a plausible explanation for his words and behavior? Is quoting a POTUS and asking him to explain his statements fake news?
Give this a watch. Might help with the Doom and gloom.
https://youtu.be/YitWZj9QhdQ
Is this man made or sourced from nature? Bigger question, no matter where it comes from, was this a means to control the population?
JCer says:
March 30, 2020 at 1:29 am
So Eddie, the thing with SARS-CoV2 is that it is truly a new virus for humans, only a handful of viruses use the ACE2 receptor, which are in the lungs, heart, kidneys, arteries, and intestines. As you can see the virus attacks some very important organs, so the key is a persons immune response. So people with weakened immunes systems cannot mount a defense, the organs are overwhelmed and ARDS and organ failure sets in.
“Japanese car makers slashed output in February at home and in other major production centers, suggesting the industry was slowing down before the full weight of the coronavirus pandemic crashed down in March.”
What’s in your wallet?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cftc-quietly-bails-out-capital-one
“was this a means to control the population?”
Perhaps? But who cares. You could say the same thing about cancer. Humans will adapt, which I’m sure was also thought of when the great plan of “creation” was conjured up by the great whatever.
Cuomo is on the record. The feds don’t have authority to enforce widespread quarantines.
Hell, even the state business shutdowns are illegal. There haven’t been widespread challenges yet because everyone gets that it’s for public health. Everyone, except for a few non conforming subcultures that is.
Speaking of layoffs.
There are approximately 1.5 million foreign “contract” workers holding jobs in the USA. The population includes roughly one million Indians about 900,000 H-1B visa holders. Majority are employed directly or as a contractor to the Fortune 500.
They are now petitioning the White House for an extension to 6 months to find work if laid off.
Chicago
Maybe we will see the end of those annoying commercials.
A Home Buyer,
I was about to post that video. Few here will probably watch it. I’ll summarize: Wash your hands, don’t touch your face, keep 3 to 6 feet from people and 99% of you will not get this virus.
Why do smoke detector batteries always start chirping at 2 in the morning and never at lunchtime? Are alarm systems coded to do that?
Eddie,
You get it. But the multiple advanced degree holding parents on my block still allow their kids to hang out with the other kids on our block. All it takes is for one kid to get it and both families will become fully infected. Now if that one kid played with a kid from a third family? Exponential growth. If there is one thing that rings true over and over, it’s that the masses are asses. We were all taught to wash our hands as kids. Ever see how few men wash their hands at stadiums or arenas after taking a whiz? I bet it’s 1 in 20. Be real!
re: What’s not in your wallet? CASH.
Speaking of CDS and margin calls.
The FED’s latest cash for trash buying up hundreds of billion in MBS caused some market participants to lose money and they got the dreaded margin call.
“In a Sunday letter, the Mortgage Bankers Association urged the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the nation’s main brokerage regulator to address the problem by telling securities firms not to escalate margin calls to “destabilizing levels.” The MBA, whose members underpin the housing market, asked the watchdogs to issue guidance directing brokers to work constructively with lenders.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-bankers-ask-sec-save-222840594.html
HMB. You are so right. Just put in the best batteries you can buy and you should be good for the interruption about once per year. I used Amazon batteries ONCE. Worst of all, when it chirps at night, you can’t tell which one it is. We have 4 of them.
BTW – when do we suspend mark to market?
Well then maybe your governor’s should let Trump do his quarantine if you well educated folk cannot seem to grasp basic hygiene and disease prevention?
I mean, if it was Kentucky, we’d probably have volunteers from the tristate area forming blockades to keep the red necks in place for the good of the civilized areas of the country.
Neither federal nor state governments have clear authority to restrict travel between states.
Does not mean they won’t do it, heck if it get’s bad enough we may need to blow the bridges between New Jersey as Pennsylvania to keep the zombie hoards of Pennsylvanians from coming here and drinking all of our liquor.
“Pennsylvania closed its state-run liquor stores on March 16.
Canal said his store, less than two miles from the Benjamin Franklin Bridge, was among a handful of stores in New Jersey closest to Philadelphia. They are known as “bridge stores” by many in their trade.
“There was a panic, a tsunami of business,” said Paul Santelle, executive director of the New Jersey Liquor Store Association, a trade group for “package store” owners. It was a scary level of business never seen before. It was like the last two weeks before Christmas and New Year.”
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/nj-liquor-store-reopens-after-being-overrun-by-pennsylvania-shoppers-after-coronavirus-shutdown.html
Hasn’t stopped Murphy from his suspension of the 2nd amendment for the good of the state.
What’s a few other suspensions in the grand scheme of things?
What an exaggeration. Suspend? Really now? Did they come to your home and collect your arsenal? Executive orders are subject to judicial review and may be overturned if the orders lack support by statute or the constitution.
In other words, you get your day in court now go wait in line for your bread.
I don’t live in Jersey anymore. I’m just sitting to the side eating popcorn.
But shutdown the stores (ammo and FA sales) and suspend the ability to run NICS… Sure they haven’t collected guns for anyone with one.
What about someone who doesn’t though?
And If it’s overturned, then that basically doesn’t mean it was an illegal use of power, no?
:)
“Shiny or Butter?”
The Matrixization of the world has begun. Fed in our pods by drones. Connected and monitored by a network of servers. Which way to Zion?
Sméagol will now return to the shadows, seeking his precious.
On a more ‘hopeful’ note – “This too shall pass.” – Gandalf the Grey
Lib And how many self important men don’t wash their hands after taking a dump!!
Does Murphy have an ounce of credibility? Is there anyone who can take him seriously at this point? Would any of you who still defend Murphy for his handling of this crisis care to provide a plausible explanation for his words and behavior? Is quoting a Governor and asking him to explain his statements fake news?
“Lib And how many self important men don’t wash their hands after taking a dump!!” I’ve seen that quite often too, but thankfully it’s less frequent than the #1 violators.
Which reminds me of one of my favorite Dangerfield quips “Look out for number one and try not to step in number two.” Man I miss that guy.
I warned you all about Murphy. Bet he gets reelected. You have to be either deaf, dumb or blind to not improve your public acceptance when a major tragedy strikes. Hence, I expect Trump to go down in flames.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-live-updates-fda-anti-malaria-drugs-emergency/story?id=69867398
You can’t even get a job at Lowe’s right now because they require a background check and drug test.
A Home Buyer says:
March 30, 2020 at 10:22 am
I don’t live in Jersey anymore. I’m just sitting to the side eating popcorn.
But shutdown the stores (ammo and FA sales) and suspend the ability to run NICS… Sure they haven’t collected guns for anyone with one.
What about someone who doesn’t though?
And If it’s overturned, then that basically doesn’t mean it was an illegal use of power, no?
:)
I’ve asked this before and I still don’t know the answer –
If it isn’t Trump, then who do you plan on pulling the lever for? Biden? I literally can not conceive of a populace that would feel Biden is capable of holding any elected office.
So what’s the alternative? We will have an election. The GOP will have Trump on the ticket. Will the Dem’s ride Biden’s corpse to November? If yes, please tell me why Biden, with his advancing dementia and nearly 50 years of swamp experience, is a better choice.
The “devil you know?”
Libturd says:
March 30, 2020 at 11:12 am
I warned you all about Murphy. Bet he gets reelected. You have to be either deaf, dumb or blind to not improve your public acceptance when a major tragedy strikes. Hence, I expect Trump to go down in flames.
It’s barely better. But at least he won’t lie compulsively. He’s simply less scary. All IMO of course.
Red Flag laws. They now have the authority to take them before you’ve committed a crime.
https://www.nj.com/news/2020/01/nearly-200-people-have-had-their-guns-seized-in-nj-under-new-red-flag-law.html
Juice Box says:
March 30, 2020 at 10:17 am
What an exaggeration. Suspend? Really now? Did they come to your home and collect your arsenal? Executive orders are subject to judicial review and may be overturned if the orders lack support by statute or the constitution.
In other words, you get your day in court now go wait in line for your bread.
Still can’t believe the president said he hoped we would be back at work by Easter. He has taken lying to a whole new level.
How’s that shale business doing?
D-FENS – “If the judge determines there is “good cause” a “temporary order” and a hearing within 10 days.
There ya go see, get a lawyer..
Why not have the hearing first?
Juice Box says:
March 30, 2020 at 11:47 am
D-FENS – “If the judge determines there is “good cause” a “temporary order” and a hearing within 10 days.
There ya go see, get a lawyer..
boken,
Orange clown has dementia along with narcisstic rage disorder. People who claim otherwise are people who made up their minds already to vote for Dumpy. It is the people who don’t follow politics who will make or break election. Swamp? Cmon, Trump cleared nothing. He changed the frogs with yes men who are unqualified and kiss his big tanned rear.
Bystander,
“Creepy Joe” has dementia along with personal space / r@pe issues. People who claim otherwise are people who made up their minds already to vote for Creepy. It is the people who don’t follow politics who will make or break election. Swamp? Cmon, Biden cleared nothing. He changed the frogs with other frogs who are unqualified and like his unrequited hugs.
“This too shall pass.” – Gandalf the Grey
I think he also said “You shall not pass”
HB,
Sure..Rick Perry is in charge of our nukes, Ben Carson – housing, and a hand bag maker and her ‘special’ husband are chief middle peace negiotators. I will take other side..thanks.
I hoped to have a have a job at Easter.
By the end of April? That’s no longer hope.
Biden 2020,
“We suck slightly less then Trump, for Democrats.”
For what it’s worth, I’ll be voting 3rd party.
HB,
Makes sense. Who would those candidates be besides the peanut gallery of anarchists, racists, eco-terrorists?
In all honesty… I don’t know. I usually wait until closer to decide but I’m not seeing any real contenders willing to step up to the plate which does concern me.
I’m just praying for “any functional adult” to appear before the election.
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1244615774322515968?s=20
This is insane. Fire everyone involved.
CBS News Caught Using Footage from an Italian Hospital to Describe Conditions in NYC
Shorts covering?
How in the world has the market been going hard in the green 3 out of the past 4 days on some really negative news? Horrible job numbers come out, and it flies. They extend the shutdown till at least end of April and market goes up.
So what is going on with mortgages and rent? No one has to pay for 3 months? Does everyone qualify?
What percentage of people exposed (or tested positive) to the virus actually show symptoms? Anybody have a source? In that link above by Home Buyer, the one with the front line doctor in NYC, the one none of you watched, the doctor states that 10% of those with the virus will be admitted to the hospital and 3% to 4% of that 10% group will go on a ventilator.
Stu:
This link is legit…… absolutely this is clot
clotpoll says:
March 29, 2020 at 7:32 am
shameless plug:
http://www.thefallswineroom.com
can deliver nj tuesday of this week.
gotta supply your own .223 and pugil sticks
Yeah…… saw this one yesterday….. pretty solid work
A Home Buyer says:
March 30, 2020 at 8:04 am
Give this a watch. Might help with the Doom and gloom.
https://youtu.be/YitWZj9QhdQ
I don’t know about that one…… for me it is always a question of whether I will get cleaner or dirtier by washing my hands…… gotta keep the Andromeda Strain off my willie….
Libturd says:
March 30, 2020 at 9:25 am
Ever see how few men wash their hands at stadiums or arenas after taking a whiz? I bet it’s 1 in 20. Be real!
Pret said there would be no more writedowns….. ooops sorry…. acid flashback to 2008.
Juice Box says:
March 30, 2020 at 9:30 am
BTW – when do we suspend mark to market?
Look at the calendar……. what is tomorrow?
Deadconomy says:
March 30, 2020 at 1:00 pm
Shorts covering?
How in the world has the market been going hard in the green 3 out of the past 4 days on some really negative news? Horrible job numbers come out, and it flies. They extend the shutdown till at least end of April and market goes up.
So what is going on with mortgages and rent? No one has to pay for 3 months? Does everyone qualify?
deadconomy, I can say one thing with a high level of certainty. It doesn’t strike me this is a bio-weapon, not deadly enough, doesn’t present severe symptoms in most fighting age people and no one makes a bioweapon without a vaccine or mitigation plan. If anything it either came from the wet market or BSL in wuhan where it was a research project gone wrong where it crossed into humans. The Chinese are lying through their teeth about the number of cases and deaths, again the number of dead in Wuhan is abnormally high, they aren’t reporting it as COVID but it seems there are many thousands of Urns and then the Epoch times reporting on cell phones is an interesting anomaly, I can tell you for sure they have more than 3500 dead beyond that we just don’t know. If it were a bioweapon there would be at least one country who wasn’t being effected.
Macy’s furloughs 130,000 workers. Tick tick tick
If Biden tanks I smell a brokered Convention with a move to draft the Governor of New York. Saluuuuuuute. Hopefully he’s a bit more electable than his pops.
Ex,
NYC Amazon workers threatening strike.
Dead,
I don’t know but I am following Chi’s lead on this. The rally just smells bad with all business closures and layoffs forthcoming. We are not even 2nd inning.
Chi,
Was kidding about Clot.
Deadconomy,
We are still in the downward channel. Actually, the chart is a TA’s dream. Here ya go.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/3HknLKfKnDnakT6N6
Don’t fret unless the market blows through that purple line. Then you should commit some.
The trend is still DOWn. (see what I did there)
Blue that is great, unfortunately it’s the marketing folks that rule. Btw I’m reading seed sales up 250% year of year , and the term victory garden is popping up in news stories.
Blue you are a polish grandmothers dream. All that talk of fruit trees and gardening they would eat you up.
Broccoli Rabe is peaking right now. Salad greens are nearly in full bloom. Lettuce 10 days down the road. I’m going out into the forest today to see if I can find some wild ramps.
ExEssex
Clothes retailers are doing furloughs because Corpses only need 1 outfit. I bet publicly traded funeral home chains and casket makers will be fine.
Forgot to mention the lower volume, which supposedly means that the recent upward move does not have great support.
JB, (re: H1-B)
You have not even accounted for one which stayed illegally and working undercover. Millions I would guess. Our hiring has absolutely ground to a halt. Before crisis, India recruiters would not even both sending us resumes for open roles. We were begging them every few weeks. Nothing. My IB is really in terrible shape on this front. They are arrogant, like India is some magical place where you pick talent off trees for nothing. They tried to t*tty squeeze the agencies (w/ discounts each year) and now paying for it. I hope this changes hiring practices in near term. Big companies got so full of themselves and now risks with model are apparent. Might be a bump for US worker for year or so but expect they go right back to outsourcing everything.
Suspected SARS virus and flu samples found in luggage: FBI report describes China’s ‘biosecurity risk’
https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sars-virus-and-flu-found-in-luggage-fbi-report-describes-chinas-biosecurity-risk-144526820.html
WASHINGTON — In late November 2018, just over a year before the first coronavirus case was identified in Wuhan, China, U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents at Detroit Metro Airport stopped a Chinese biologist with three vials labeled “Antibodies” in his luggage.
The biologist told the agents that a colleague in China had asked him to deliver the vials to a researcher at a U.S. institute. After examining the vials, however, customs agents came to an alarming conclusion.
“Inspection of the writing on the vials and the stated recipient led inspection personnel to believe the materials contained within the vials may be viable Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) materials,” says an unclassified FBI tactical intelligence report obtained by Yahoo News.
The report, written by the Chemical and Biological Intelligence Unit of the FBI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate (WMDD), does not give the name of the Chinese scientist carrying the suspected SARS and MERS samples, or the intended recipient in the U.S. But the FBI concluded that the incident, and two other cases cited in the report, were part of an alarming pattern.
Thanks to all for the replies. Appreciate it. This place is becoming my go to source for no bs analysis.
The trend is still DOWn. (see what I did there)–slick
That Dr. Price video is spreading faster than COVID-19. I hope everybody watches it and heeds his advise.
deadconomy. Do you see blood in the streets in the yet?
Libturd and Fast Eddie
Some comedy relief from Korea
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36fH2cm_mW0
I think the us population will shrink by a few mil over the next couple of years. And not because of death. It won’t be only legal immigrants without work. The industries held down by illegals look pretty bleak. Construction, hospitality, domestic services, etc. Without social welfare, the only choice will be to leave.
Bystander – I understand the dislike of Trump, I really do.
And frankly, my personal business would do enormously better with a Dem controlled government, think HUD funding.
But Biden legitimately has dementia. He is deteriorating very fast. Am I over-blowing this?
I get it – There are huge machines that make the administration go forward. But the president is the face of the nation, like it or not. I can’t foresee any scenario where Biden gets the uniformed voter motivated.
Imagine Biden on the phone with another world-leader, imagine him trying to negotiate without his handlers. The guy gets unreasonably aggressive when asked any “off-book” question. Other leaders around the world will eat him alive. He has challenged voters to push-up contests, called them lying dog-faced pony soldiers, told them to “go vote for someone else”. If he gets uncomfortable he gets aggressive, again, a sign of dementia.
Can the Dem’s please provide me with another option? Biden will lose in historic fashion. Seriously, it won’t even be close.
Does technical analysis work for Coronavirus projections as well?
Beer,
Hah, line of the day “Corpses only need 1 outfit”. Reminds me of business headline over weekend “Walmart sees jumps in top sales but not bottoms”..totally makes sense with work from home..priceless
Hold my beer,
You do realize that video is ripe for an endless number of innuendos, yes? ;)
boken,
Not here to defend Biden. I never liked him as a candidate but questioning his sanity while disregarding the countless brain damange moments by Trump? That is pretty bias. Recall that Trump only won election by 70k votes in very blue collar states. Those people are getting crushed right now. I think the VP choices may decide this one. Good chance neither make it through 4 years mentally together. Cuomo has alot of street cred right now. Nikki Haley resigned from Boeing right before bailout. Should be interesting summer.
Fast
Only if you are a dirty old man
This is their day job.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elXKLm3Ca7A
Biggest girls kpop group ever
Lib, no I do not….point taken.
November is a long time away… especially for a nation that has an attention span shorter than the time it takes a 98 MPH fast ball to reach a catcher’s mitt. When this plague starts to wane and the summer days approach, you’re going to see the economy start to flow again. People are aching now to get back to normalcy, wait another month or two.
What you’ll see then is Trump touting how he steered us out this, which he is doing and how he orchestrated a restart in the economy. Unless we’re all dead, it’ll be hard to dispute, deserving or not. And, if they replace Biden with Cuomo, you’ll see Cuomo get hammered for not acting sooner and allowing NYC to resemble a war zone. No matter, Cuomo is not Giuliani as far as rock star status goes and even Giuliani couldn’t parlay his status into the presidency.
By – If Biden is such a solid choice, then why is the party, where he is the lead/only horse in the official nomination process, openly talking about other options?
Regardless of anyone’s opinion of Trump – He has really solid foundation to run on.
He is the incumbent, he has enormous support from his party (something like 95% of GOP support) and he is on TV every day for the foreseeable future. Absolutely no one I know is saying “Boy I wish I could get a daily update from Joe Biden” The guy is irrelevant
Don’t quote me on this but I recall reading somewhere that Biden’s last basement town-hall had something like 650 TOTAL live viewers. Anyone else hear that?
Bystander your firm is doomed, you guys are our biggest customer. I have worked for and with a lot of the big banks. I’ve never seen such technical incompetence and I was an employee of your firm 10 years ago. The vast majority of the “talent” they have brought in from the revolving door Indian outsourcing vendors is incompetent, you cannot build good systems when only 20% of your workforce knows what they are doing. In the meantime they have lost all of their top technical talent to the likes of GS, MS, BOA, et al and even Google and other tech companies, the people left seem to be those incapable of getting a better position at a competitor. They could have built on there capabilities but instead they gutted it to try and save money. Every line of business they have is hemorrhaging customers, they have effectively lost the US market.
Your firm has tried to play the vendors off one another for far too long and I think the big thing is they want local resources at rock bottom prices and frankly immigration is currently a tough nut to crack, they don’t have the resources and are having issues keeping them in the country. The rates for H1B people are going up in this market as housing costs escalate and the visas themselves become harder to get. I know your firm was getting onshore developers at around $600 per day, that’s not sustainable at the salary these folks are getting paid some are finding it is better to go back to India if they cannot find someone to transfer the visa, they can’t live here for 70k per year in salary.
HMB,
Yes, Biden is just about the worst the Dems could have done, besides maybe letting Bloomberg buy it. He is a corporate shill and does not appear terribly intelligent. Though I know the Dems would ask him to step down, and he would oblige, if dementia is the case. Now on the other side of the aisle, the R’s are spineless and wouldn’t ask Trump to step aside even if he killed their mothers, which he might be planning to do, or not, or might, or might not. It’s a friggin’ embarrassment.
BRT – on TA. I barely believe it, but this one looks pretty textbook, until it’s not.
Though on the virus spread. It does not take an advanced degree in mathematics to know that death rates and spread rates will be higher in countries that do nothing to prevent the spread than in ones that do. Yet, all of the models are based off of the latter.
3,000 dead and still no plan from the president. It’s a disgrace. What’s the plan Fast Eddie? What’s the plan Juice? The question is open for any of the Trump supporters here.
Libturd
Plans don’t matter. TV ratings do.
Biden is a horrible choice but then again so was Warren, Harris, and Bernie. The truth be told Bloomberg or Booker was probably their best shot. Of the lot of awfulness that was the democratic candidates Biden was one of the weakest, he’s old, stumbling, has a closet full of skeleton’s. Trump’s bumbling of the COVID response is the democrats only hope, I could see Cuomo beating Trump in a national election, at this point I don’t see Biden winning.
Tragedies do make heroes out of fools.
What’s the plan Fast Eddie?
Certainly not the touted #2 healthcare provider in the world better known as Italy and certainly not that of India… the same India under siege after you professed how well they were doing. So much for that.
What’s Trump’s plan? What planet are you on? Restricted travel, $50 billion small business loan, deferred tax payments resulting in an additional $200 billion in liquidity, another $2 trillion distributed to individuals, resources and businesses, $8 billion targeting first response, public and private sectors to produce medical supplies and increase capacity, issued guidance on safety and precaution… I mean, seriously, what the f.uck else do you want from the federal level?
So basically reacting and throwing pasta at the wall to see what sticks. Nothing proactive. Thanks.
Rinse and repeat in two weeks I suppose?
Damn. I was all set to join the lawsuit.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/gun-shops-are-now-considered-essential-businesses-in-nj-gov-murphy-says.html
Lib,
It’s January 31st, 2020, you’re now president of the U.S., what’s your plan?
D-Fens
Beat me to it! But… It’s standard procedure. If they pull back it can’t get to court.
Arizona’s Governor has forbidden towns and counties to order shelter in place
I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict this doesn’t end well.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/sick-experiment-arizona-not-implementing-coronavirus-lockdown-measures/
India:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nishitajha/india-coronavirus-lockdown-migrant-workers
Lib – re: “What’s the plan?
We need to attack the Virus Back!! Earliest attack for some will be September and that will be for the Docs, Nurses and medics then it wil be ranked Athletes, Celebrities and Politicians get the vaccine next.
If you are lucky you can get a shot in maybe January, stay home until then.
My plan is to get some beach front property in Arizona when this is over.
Eddie it’s not so much Trump’s actions but rather his responses to this which have been scary. The actions being taken would likely have occurred under any president we had. Simply put congress passing a bloated stimulus and taking the advise of the experts. Trump is unpredictable which makes the crisis scarier than it need be. We would never lock down like China, or even Italy. Italy had a really hard time getting people to comply and Europeans are less “freedom” oriented than Americans. Until people see carnage any preemptive action would not have been well received by the wider population, hence no politician would take it. Also Chinese mis-information wasn’t helping anything as until a few weeks ago everybody thought this would only kill the elderly and infirm.
Fast Eddie,
1/31/2020? What day was the senate intel committee briefed? Certainly compelling enough to result is large stock sales. Have to assume the POTUS knew the same or more and likely sooner.
What to do? National address about the coming virus. Full explanation about testing and social distancing. Presentation of broad strokes of what to expect and why. Prepare health care system for impact of virus by obtaining additional supplies and educating staff. TELL THE TRUTH AND SHOW EMPATHY!
1- Defense Logistics Agency to run the Logistics. 26k people that know where everything is and move it globally, including the r3ctal probes for area 51 aliens.
2-All states medical wing of national guards coordinated by central authority – CDC. Field/temporary hospitals to be built on biological hazard models – no nurse managers or hospital administrators allowed. Hot/Warn/Cold/Decontamination zones.
3- Defense act authority to manufacture haz mat level c suits, head hard HEPA mask, and other ppe.
Top 3 to start,
You don’t want to ask me my plan. I was raised in a gulag. Youngest of seven kids. Was fined my lunch money for touching the walls.
Certainly, I would have laid out a plan, regardless of what it was.
Eddie on India, I’m shocked there aren’t already a tremendous number of cases and deaths. Just looking at the photos, they do not have social distance, there isn’t enough space and sanitation is a foreign concept for most in India. Lets see COVID bodies into the Ganges, with people drinking and bathing from the same river, it will likely spread like wildfire unless Indians are resistant to it which is always a possibility.
India is actually doing something. I give their PM a lot of credit. Though, it will eventually spread like a wildfire there like it is beginning to here.
DiBlasio is a moron. Check out his rental security deposit idea. Oy.
Can we get some Federal leadership already before the whole thing collapses!!!
JCer,
Agree, I am f-ed here but location is real reason. No companies are located here anymore so they got people by the grapes. Our office is 50 percent h1b and 40 percent older workers, with a few under 30 mixed in. Did I tell you that I got highest rating in group and got no raise and 4 percent bonus. Greatest economy ever.There was no reason for it. They decided to pull money back at last minute. Sure you knew that though.
Just to be clear……. this set of markets is deep, deep, deep end of the pool sh!t.
There is absolutely no way to figure out what is going to happen.
I will say one thing, and it has nothing to do with movement in April 2020.
There are basically two types of companies right now. The ones sitting on a bunch of cash, and everyone else. The ones sitting on a bunch of cash are not wasting time sweating the details of 2020. Instead they are planning strategically for the next 24-36 months. While everyone else is just trying to tread water, they are building the Deathstar to be used against competition. Try to buy these companies or sectors as cheaply as you can over the course of April-June…… the rest of it is a fuking crapshoot……. don’t take a huge risk right now….. because it is bigger than it seems on its face becuase of conditions….
Bystander says:
March 30, 2020 at 1:56 pm
Dead,
I don’t know but I am following Chi’s lead on this. The rally just smells bad with all business closures and layoffs forthcoming. We are not even 2nd inning.
Chi x 1000
4:03 imma wax my p@ssy and move to Malibu.
No mass deaths yet but…
https://twitter.com/andrewrush/status/1244657465859457024?s=21
Word on the street is that companies are firing citizens and retaining h1b.
Issue is that h1b need to leave US immediately on firing or furlough.
Wait until the shore hears there are zero seasonal rentals this year.
Jersey shore closed for business.
Hearing non-residents are going to be barred.
Go Murphy go
Didn’t I tell you all about that big retailer the other day.
Just wait, far more.
Morris County testing center. Where is everyone?
https://twitter.com/jessiereport/status/1244622111047659525?s=21
Chifi,
Cash rich? So basically this list.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/microsoft-apple-and-alphabet-are-sitting-on-more-than-100-billion-in-cash.html
Bystander I know it well, it is the old, i.e people who aren’t switching companies and the H1B’s, I actually work for a vendor so I have no idea what the comp structure looks like at this point but I do know the employees are not real cooperative with the vendor and are disgruntled, even the H1B’s know they are getting the shaft. Only the MD’s are well compensated, everyone else is basically eating alpo at this point. A 4% bonus! No wonder they lost all there talent, I used to get 20-30% and I thought that was a pittance because my wife at GS was getting 60%. It explains the lack of motivation in the staff outside of the workaholics. The really crummy thing is the management consultants(Accenture et al) are billing 300-400 an hour. I saw this and I was like let me get this straight the developers are paid like 12 bucks an hour and they play someone $400 an hour to do power point….oh yeah this makes sense.
We actually re-badged some of your Cognizant consultants and about 2 years I told my BA how bad his dev team was going to be he didn’t believe me. The guy left 2 weeks ago for a different firm, he told me I gave the dev team too much credit they were actually worse than I indicated they would be!
Now mind you this was an old white dude in his mid 50’s so the economy is not as bad as you’ve indicated. It actually was looking up, I knew quite a few consultants who had their rates increased after threatening to leave. Unfortunately that ship has sailed, we are now in full on recession.
Greatness Gary, Sheer Greatness.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1244320570315018240
To my GOP friends, its not the Dem Party job to provide a candidate to your liking. You have your own convention, broker your own replacement for Donnie. If not then your choice is to a Biden Repub.
The problem for Microsoft and Goog, is that despite their cash haul, their competitors already have their own DeathStar.
I remember the day I say my first Amazon delivery van, then the first Truck on the freeway. Today was the first shipping container on an Intermodal train. When do we get the first Container Ship?
Took my first trip to the grocery store in a fortnight. Went to Stews in Paramus. It is off the beaten path so it was quiet. They have their own dairy processor in CT, so it was a good bet for milk and eggs.
While there are some gaps on the shelves, they are well stocked. There was even some Bounty to be had. I dont need it so left it for someone else. They have beer and wine in store which is rare in this part of the world. So the hatches get battened back down for another few weeks.
Well, Russian way….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWN1CAD5P_g
Costco in Marlboro had Charmin and $1.73 gas
I wonder after all this demand and supply shock, what will the ad market transform into? GOOG, FB, TWTR etc all have ad-based incomes, nothing else. AAPL will also suffer from income losses and market apetite. However, MSFT is still in much better shape compared to that as it grows cloud services and overall diversified SW market. With that AMZN, MSFT should remarkably split from the pack I believe.
What would your estimates for housing market? My bet would be a lot of drops in overall market almost every metro area, but NY/NJ should be less damaging I’d assume. We didn’t experience any of the bubbles like ones in TX, Nashville, Boulder, SF area.
For those who bash out Italy, I’d say the health system has done a good job, but the governments and the folks who like to keep social as one could expect from Italy messed it up really bad. When they delayed the lock down, and send all students in crowded trains and buses, it sprawled much bigger than they could handle.
Another note was the split in Swiss cases, Almost orders of magniture higher in south that borders Italy than in the north. Possibly the life style plays much bigger role, also formation and interaction of families and folks.
I’d say US is doing a better job in keeping social distancing especially at suburban quarters.
Most US coronavirus cases per 100,000 via @CNN:
New York 342
New Jersey 187
Louisiana 87
Massachusetts 83
Connecticut 72
District of Columbia 70
Michigan 65
Washington 64
Vermont 41
Colorado 40
Illinois 40
Rhode Island 39
Nevada 33
Pennsylvania 32
Georgia 29
Mississippi 28
Italy has 168, Spain 188 on similar stats.
NJTownhomer, it’s really quite simple. In the case of Switzerland, by and large they follow instructions, Italians, even the Swiss variety in Ticino are more likely to bend the rules, also close cultural ties put the Swiss Italians in far more contact with virus. In Italy as they were locking down people weren’t necessarily following the orders, they still aren’t last week tonight had a hilarious video of Italian mayors ranting an raving. My friends wife is from the Milan area and her 70 year old mother lives in Bergamo, he was telling me early on his mother in law was still eating out and seeing friends…….. You also need to consider the people in Ticino have close ties to Italy, many crossing the border to shop.
It’s density, Italians and Spaniards even in the countryside tend to live in villages. Conceptually Europeans live closer together, they take public transit, and in general they leave less personal space.
Because Italy came up again,
I know southern Switzerland very well. The cantons of Valais and Ticino are beautiful in the warmer months. One can fly into GVA and be at the cable car in Bagnes (Verbier) in under 45 minutes. There’s an stunning hotel at altitude in Crans-Montana, also an hour drive from GVA. Locarno, Lugano, Maggiore, just so many good memories. I have to imagine that part of the world will remain scarred for some time, it doesn’t go back to business as usual for a whole host of non-economical reasons.
I fly to Nashville often. I had a $13 acai breakfast bowl last month, that and a $5 coffee and the handlebar moustache hipster had the balls to tell me they don’t do dairy when I asked for milk. It was at that point that the transformation was complete.
Standing on the 13th floor of the Fifth Third building one can point to several major corporate projects going up at any given time. Amazon has just started gutting and putting in foundations. Explosive growth.
Nice to learn about southern Swiss area. Thanks BoomerRemover.
I travel to and stay in AUS a lot, and same applies there like Nashville. In fact rumor is Tesla recently bought land in the area. They are heavily invested in software, and they may be spared from the downturn but still I see some of the foam will be taken off just like others.
My 2 cents, or less…
While the Chinese were welding people in their apartments in January, the amoral Left was busy impeaching Trump over a phone call. At the same time the corrupt WHO was busy changing the name of the virus as to not stigmatize the Han Chinese; adding that the virus spread was under control by the Chi-coms and that international travel with China should not be restricted one bit. Politicians and social media virtual signalers alike, the world over, were tripping over each other to kiss and hug Chinese people and call everyone racist who didn’t want to do the same or venture into China-towns across the land.
Fast forward to today. American are prisoners in their own homes while actual prisoners are being released. Businesses are shut and our economy may never recover and collapse. Widespread social disorder and out of control crime might be the next leg down after all those who will die have died. I have way more questions than answers but one thing I have deduced is that THEY wanted it to spread. Politicians Left and Right crave power above everything else. Cuomo, Murphy, Trump, etc…they all love the daily pressers. Power is more addictive than drugs for these people.
I had hoped that I’d be out of NJ before a major SHTF event happened. Alas I am stuck here. We’ll see how it goes.
BTW, why is my NJ income tax filing still due April 15?
While the Chinese were welding people in their apartments in January, the amoral Left was busy impeaching Trump over a phone call.
And I don’t recall any pandemic protocols being discussed at the last democratic debate.
For sure the most hollow complaint is that the administration has been too slow to respond. These are the same people who spent the past three years openly obstructing, sabotaging and resisting everything. They conducted a series of never ending hoaxes. They made no attempt to govern.
Their top policy initiatives were open borders and chain migration. Not working out so well in queens.
Jan 21 – 1st confirmed case of COVID-19 in US
Jan 31 – Trump shuts down all flights from China
Biden/CNN/etc – Trump is a racist, xenophobic tyrant!
Also Jan 31 – Senate 100% consumed debating the need for “witnessess and documents” for a “trial” that had an outcome that was certain to acquit.
See what happens when we take our eye off the ball in search of political nonsense? People die. Great job!
Off topic (ha!):
The Manhattan Condo Market Showed a Flicker of Hope. The Virus Snuffed It Out.
Just as the Manhattan residential real-estate market was shaking itself out of a multiyear slowdown, the party was suddenly over.
Sales spiked during the first quarter, but now the market has all but shut down, brokers say, as fears of the new coronavirus and worries over the economy take hold.
Beginning in mid-March, many sellers stopped adding new sales listings and pulled scores of listings already on the market, according to UrbanDigs.com, a real-estate data and listing site. That steep drop began even before Gov. Andrew Cuomo banned in-person real-estate showings.
The number of Manhattan contracts signed in recent weeks fell by half compared with the same period of 2019, and many of those deals were already in the works before the full impact of the virus on New York, according to UrbanDigs.
More at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-manhattan-condo-market-showed-a-flicker-of-hope-the-virus-snuffed-it-out-11585569600?mod=hp_major_pos1#cxrecs_s
I’m in the same boat. I don’t think you see a price drop in this area because it wasn’t a bubble. People weren’t becoming rich off real estate purchases in this area in the past 10 years. Those places where the prices doubled and tripled, watch out. Esp if you are nowhere near the coast or any major body of water with access to ports.
“I travel to and stay in AUS a lot, and same applies there like Nashville. In fact rumor is Tesla recently bought land in the area. They are heavily invested in software, and they may be spared from the downturn but still I see some of the foam will be taken off just like others.”
Well jersey city and hoboken etc… made some rich. I just look at that as the exception. Those areas were cleaned up and allowed for new development. That’s why they went up in value, not because of speculation. The land value was artificially held down by mouth breathers and crime. All you had to do was get rid of them and the price would go up.
Death rate is estimated to be .66% when accounting for presumed undetected mild cases.
1.38% when undetected cases are not included.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html
Let’s also keep in mind, you can only die once (unless your a democrat on a voting roll, I kid!) So Covid will wipe the floor with people who were going to die from flu. Flu deaths should be significantly down this year…
“NJTownhomer”
NJ and NY had it first. Our numbers will match Italy. Density has to do with the speed of the spread of infection. Not the total amount of growth. Just watch. Also, all of these numbers are before our hospitals reach peak capacity. The death rate will increase significantly when this happens.
Homeboken
Stopping flights from China would have made no difference at this point. You needed to seal your border so those infected around the world couldn’t bring it in.
Chi
Your financial advice continues to be spot on. Not worried about the market at all right now. The sideline and the opportunity cost of sitting on it is nothing compared to being in the right place for the inevitable rebound.
Trumpsters
You are all seeming absolutely, positively defensive lately. What gives? Starting to see the light as the death numbers climb? Perhaps this isn’t just another flu?
Gonna be a busy work day for me today. Catch you all in the evening. Be safe and stop shopping. It ain’t worth it!
Lib – What does that mean “Our numbers will match Italy’s”?
Not being snarky, just curious. Total cases per capita, death rate? The US death rate is about 1/10th of Italy’s at this moment. Granted we are behind them on the time-line but do you really see a 10x increase in death rate here in the US?
“I think the VP choices may decide this one…Cuomo has alot of street cred right now. Nikki Haley resigned from Boeing right before bailout. Should be interesting summer.”
Never happen.
The reasons Cuomo is attractive to voters have made him persona non grata in the Democratic Party. He is blunt, doesn’t suffer fools, accepts accountability, and expects it from others. With those traits he has pissed off every Dem Party insider. VP off the table. Win through a brokered convention – the definition of the inside game – is infinitesimal.
Re: Haley, in two hundred fifty years of the Republic only Roosevelt has run for re-election after voluntarily replacing his sitting VP and that was after very public disagreements over major policy issues (Veep openly opposed Roosevelt trying to pack the Supreme Court and various aspects of the New Deal). Not the case here, Pence is locked.
Abbott Labs just developed a test that can output results in 5 minutes; we’re now testing 100,000 per day; another US corp. just developed a sterilization method that can cleanse masks to be reused up to 20 times. That’s a fraction of the latest developments. The previous three administrations had a chance to ramp up our readiness and did nothing.
Always someone else to blame with Trumptards. I heard Trump was really worried during Senate trial and his focus was not there. Apparently he hit more sand traps and water hazards due to this concern. Still cheated on his final score. Red hats are so full of sh%t.
Our numbers have to match Italy’s or we are fock’d next time a plague happens and people don’t believe the government or pundits because “There will be bodies in the streeeeet! Doooom!” Was the 6 pm mantra on the nightly news.
If this fizzles, and looks like a bad flu year, you better be ready to prep yourself because the next time could be an epic failure of social and governmental action out of fear of looking alarmist again.
Or just my two cents anyways.
A home buyer
NYC had 124 people die from corona in a 6 hour period yesterday so I think nyc is going to exceed italy numbers all by itself
Great on Abbot and Roche, Eddie. But this should have been put into motion in January. Not April.
Homeboken, my skin is thicker than the shell of a coconut. When comparing numbers, you must be careful to make sure you are comparing oranges to oranges. We are in the first inning here. They are probably in their 4th as they still haven’t reached peak. Nevertheless, though their population is older, they are in better physical shape then us. But that is probably less significant than the fact that they ran out of beds to treat the surge almost a month ago. We haven’t even gotten to that point in NY. And NY will have the benefit of having the resources they need. When it works its way across the country, the hospitals will not have that benefit. Will be interesting trying to get the USS Comfort to Denver for example.
Comparing Italy’s numbers to the current US number is just plain silly. Yet all of the hope mongers continue to do so. It’s why the death estimates keep rising. First it was just another flu 37,000. Then it was twice a regular flu, maybe 80,000. Then it was 100,000. Then it was 100 to 200K. Then it was 100 to 200K best scenario.
Unless there is a miracle cure, and I really hope there is one, testing alone ain’t gonna do jack sh1t unless you test all 360 million of us. Because as long as we don’t quarantine and continue to order take out and shop at Costco, we are still spreading this disease to each other. Maybe a little more slowly, but no nearly slowly enough.
Will be in meetings until 1pm. Stay safe my friends.
Always someone else to blame with Trumptards.
Nothing is flawless, especially in these uncharted waters. A smooth sea doesn’t make a skilled sailor. This administration is proactive as witnessed by the unprecedented measures we’re seeing. Field hospitals, converting commercial space into hospitals in a matter of hours, private/public coordination, liquidity, constant updates and guidelines for the populace… all rolling out. It’s not blame, it’s simply outlining the contrast between one side being severely outplayed and the other side demonstrating leadership.
“The previous three administrations had a chance to ramp up our readiness and did nothing.” True, but so is the following:
“This administration had a chance to ramp up our readiness and did nothing.”
Real estate prices will definitely be going down in this area and I can’t believe some say we were not in a bubble. People are losing jobs, taking salary cuts and all the rest. I also think people are going to think twice about being packed into apartments in Hoboken and Jersey City etc As well more companies will embrace work from home especially Wall Street jobs which were resistant to it, and realize the huge cost savings real estate wise, and that does not mean necessarily people flock back to the suburbs, as people can live anywhere now and work from home. Places like the Poconos and Catskills come to mind.
10am meeting cancelled.
Florida is also going to raise the death rate significantly, as will time. Tons of people are already on ventilators. 9 out of 10 of them will die, we just aren’t willing to plug on them yet. But the demand for ventilators for the newly infected will outweigh the odds of keeping ventzombies living. Goodbye mom and dad. Wish I could be there with you so I could have reminded you who you voted for. (wah wah)
Always someone else to blame when it comes to liberal p@ussy Democrats.
Ed,
Let me be clear, I don’t blame Trump. This is extreme situation that no president could have foreseen. I do support medical experts that the admin are pushing forward. I don’t need the MyPillow idiots. Still, the first instinct across this entire admin is to lie and deflect blame and Faux news gets down on their knees immediately to bl*w him. There is no need for this and it has nothing to do with his poor treatment by media..boo hoo. Some might see it as strength but I see it as major defect in personality. A simple, “we are monitoring situation and planning response”..that took weeks to get from this admin and Senate leaders. It was a hoax first.
The Democratic Party had an obligation to offer Americans a real choice to vote for, not another bought and paid for career politician like Joe Biden. So I will be sitting out this election too.
Coworker had a breakdown this mornings call with 30 people. The proletariat are now just starting to wake up to the fact that their JOBS will be cannon fodder for this war against the Wuhan Wheeze as companies fight to remain in existence over the next few weeks.
No worries folks the 13D filings and now showing up as the activists vacuum up stocks to show the boards who is boss now.
Don’t panic yet but when 1/3 rd of our entire US workforce is either unemployed or furloughed by May you may need to have another plan.
I noticed the dissemination in right-wing media yesterday that the new talking point is impeachment delayed response. As usual, the Trumpsters all fall in line immediately because fealty to the Supreme Leader is the only thing that matters. I’ve always said these are dangerously stupid people and I meant it as their stupidity will actually harm others. They’ll pretend like their Dear Leader and themselves were not downplaying this as the flu for the past month and declare that any response or outcome at this point is due to the impeccable leadership of Trump. You are all seeing it in real time with Fast Eddie. I wish these people had a sense of shame but I’ve given up on that a long time ago.
Bystander,
I agree with some of your points. I get it.
Nothing is flawless
Nonsense
See, you guys are livid, besides yourself that this administration is not only handling this thing flawlessly but calling out the deranged imbeciles doing everything possible to try and derail it.
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2020/03/19/c19-open-discussion-week-1/#comment-1159323
I wish Democrats had a sense of shame but I’ve given up on that a long time ago.
No government predicted this would be as bad as it was as fast as it was. Asian countries like South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan had already dealt with responses multiple times so they were more prepared than we were. Nobody, even pandemic experts were stating the numbers we are seeing currently in January. If they were, I’d love to read the articles or see the videos.
3 weeks ago, we were talking about a handful of people in NJ having it. Trump and his team were late to the game, just like everyone else. But when they started to take action by closing off travel, the Dems screamed Xenophobia and were telling everyone to go out and eat in Chinatown and the rest of the city (both San Francisco and NJ). Meanwhile, it was spreading like wildfire through both cities at that point. Just admit it, it caught us all by surprise. Hindsight is 20/20.
Every country should be sending China a bill for their nonsense early on.
Look at demographics and total number by age cohort by state.
Old states, states with large retirement and assisted care populations – that’s where you see the fallout.
Florida is absolutely ground zero in the US, they just don’t know it yet.
Their desire to keep businesses open until spring break was over will be revealed as the dumbest possible decision.
Yeah Joyce, things change, events happen, situations arise, don’t they? Of course, you’re absolutely flawless, right Joyce?
I believe PA is a boomer chart topper as well.
Anyone who thinks a politician will save you needs to spend some time working on a campaign and attending their functions and fundraisers. Then switch to the other side and do some lobbying for big business.
Dallas county is encouraging families to remove their family members from nursing homes and have those residents live with them . Those who do that will have to self quarantine for 14 days and will only be allowed to use their backyard. Part time employees of nursing homes in Dallas county are now only allowed to work in one facility.
Denton county has over 40 cases from one group home of mentally challenged residents.
Tarrant and Dallas counties have more than doubled their known cases in less than a week. Today is the start of 2nd week of shelter in place for this area. A Dallas convention center is going to be converted into a 250 bed hospital with tool to expand to 1,400 beds
Kill the patient “economy” to cure the disease. I’m from the government and I’m here to help.
“Don’t panic yet but when 1/3 rd of our entire US workforce is either unemployed or furloughed by May you may need to have another plan.“
Of course, I’m not. Neither is anyone else including Trump and his administration. Once again, because I point out how ridiculous that comment was, somehow you think I’m talking about something else. Take it for what it is. Criticism of Trump is criticism of Trump… not support for Obama, Biden or Hillary. Christ.
Fast Eddie says:
March 31, 2020 at 10:39 am
Yeah Joyce, things change, events happen, situations arise, don’t they? Of course, you’re absolutely flawless, right Joyce?/
But But Captain Hindsight could have saved the the day….
They didn’t lock down Wuhan until Jan 23rd based upon 25 deaths “reported” and Trump banned flights the following week, but hey hey hey he should have gone full wag the dog aka “purposely diverted attention” during the impeachment right! The Media and the politicians would have said he was interfering with their pomp and circumstance of handing out their commemorative impeachment pens and partying like it was 1999.
JB,
On job front, I totally agree. The front lines are toast, hourly workers/restaurants etc. Next are the exempt small to mid size business employees which have been ramping up this week. By end of month, I fully expect large F500 to start the decimation. In fact, my boss says big meeting where we need to give up hirings this year. He would not share spreadsheet though. That is usually a sign that it is bigger than future hirings. Also saw email from group stating that they don’t need us to do work that we normally perform bc data quality (magically) improved. This sounds bad. What will happen to health coverages during worst possible time? Sorry but this feeds right into Sanders agenda. No worries, Dow is up. You will all be rich from stocks.
– The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to St. Louis Fed projections.
– There are nearly 67 million Americans working in jobs that are at a high risk of layoffs, according to the analysis.
– St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said last week that the initial estimates are grim but the plunge should be short-lived.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html
Look on the bright side, you may be homeless, but at least you are alive.
Said it before, I’ll say it again.
Both the virus and the economic impacts of the shutdown are going to be highly discriminatory.
The virus will predominantly impact the elderly and ill.
The economic impacts will predominantly impact the poor, young, and disadvantaged.
Don’t say there isn’t a trade being made, because there absolutely is.
The decision was made to sacrifice the economic potential of the poor, young, and disadvantaged. Many of them will never recover. Many of them will lose EVERYTHING they ever worked for … to save some old rich white people who don’t need to work anyway.
Don’t get me wrong. Pence is a profoundly odd dude, and creepy. That said, I find it incredibly annoying that anyone who is fundamentally styled religious is de facto deemed intellectually deficient by the left.
They guy is competent, articulate, loyal to his boss, and has the personality of plain gluten free toast.
leftwing says:
March 31, 2020 at 9:25 am
Re: Haley, in two hundred fifty years of the Republic only Roosevelt has run for re-election after voluntarily replacing his sitting VP and that was after very public disagreements over major policy issues (Veep openly opposed Roosevelt trying to pack the Supreme Court and various aspects of the New Deal). Not the case here, Pence is locked.
Lose your job, your home, and dignity all because you only have over a 98% percent chance of survival of covid-19. Homeless people will become desperate and crime will start to go up, but hey there was only a 98% chance you would survive so let’s destroy the economy and your livelihood. I’m from the government and I’m here to help.
Sure, we can say we’ll save every life at any cost, but nobody seems to be adding up what that real cost is . I’m not talking about the cost of the treatment or healthcare, but the resulting societal and economic impact.
“the plunge should be short-lived.”
Exactly!
I really feel this all temporary. But the pain (and panic and fear) is going to be much worse than any of you imagine.
As for not knowing it’s coming and the expected death rates. I projected 200K with back of the envelope math over three weeks ago. And that was faulty because I based it on draconian lock down math. There is no excuse for our lack of preparedness and still completely ineffective response. You guys will see. 10 dead in PRM/64 cases. 6 infected in Glen Ridge, but that numbers about to double based on practices I have been witnessing. Too many parents are letting their kids hang out with other kids. It’s plumb crazy.
I don’t know if I buy that…….. we have an acute care medical emergency that is affecting a very small amount of the population. The problem is that we have cameras everywhere and internet enabled communicators that can take singular situations and draw vast amounts of attention to them.
Boris Johnson and the Swedes probably have the correct approach (i.e. let the thing foster herd immunity and burn itself out), but it is morally and socially untenable.
grim says:
March 31, 2020 at 11:14 am
Said it before, I’ll say it again.
Both the virus and the economic impacts of the shutdown are going to be highly discriminatory.
The virus will predominantly impact the elderly and ill.
The economic impacts will predominantly impact the poor, young, and disadvantaged.
Don’t say there isn’t a trade being made, because there absolutely is.
The decision was made to sacrifice the economic potential of the poor, young, and disadvantaged. Many of them will never recover. Many of them will lose EVERYTHING they ever worked for … to save some old rich white people who don’t need to work anyway.
I know of at least 100,000 furloughs or layoffs in the past two days that are not yet published.
Clearly far too many companies were playing Just-In-Time supply chain with their cashflow.
Many of these companies are expecting to be shut down for the long haul at this point.
We have numerous offers to sublease, purchase outright, or buy any physical assets (computers, etc) of a number of domestic companies.
For every person under 35 who dies an is deemed “healthy”…… how many smoke or vape? Make a PSA on that one…..
“It’s why the death estimates keep rising. First it was just another flu 37,000. Then it was twice a regular flu, maybe 80,000. Then it was 100,000. Then it was 100 to 200K. Then it was 100 to 200K best scenario.”
And yet there are only 39k deaths…in the whole freaking world. Fcuk estimates.
I’m not minimizing it, and in fact for my family (especially my elderly parents) I have been out in front of it quite early and with more than a little hurt feelings on some people’s parts….
But…my point….the spread of this virus and therefore the ultimate death toll is ultimately a personal decision of the populace. Isolate, wash your hands frequently, and don’t touch your face. those simple directions take R naught below 1 and we’re done.
The outcome is 100% in our – the populace’s control.
You are stating the what…….. the real question is why?
grim says:
March 31, 2020 at 11:26 am
Many of these companies are expecting to be shut down for the long haul at this point.
The stimulus being thrown at everything is profound…… it remains to be seen whether data means complete sh!t at this point….. if the government is buying everything….
Best analogy to what is happening right now……
https://youtu.be/ZOoJoTAXDPk?t=84
“The outcome is 100% in our – the populace’s control.”
I’m not leaving my house with a hazmat suit, even if Trump orders me back to work. My larger concern is D. He will need growth hormones soon and that’s about a 20% risk I do not want to take.
Good thing it’s “Under control.”
Bang. Glen Ridge went from 6 to 12 cases in one day. Wait for the compounding.
Let us return to New Jersey houses. If you need to sell one, then what do you do?
I don’t get what is wrong with buying oil stock and coast for next 20 years. It is ridiculous at these prices. Even if people drive less and fly less, the enormous power source has no legit alternative.
chifi, or obese.
Check balance sheet of company…… your equity could get zeroed out…. also many companies are hanging in because of dividend….. what would happen if it got suspended?
Bystander says:
March 31, 2020 at 11:42 am
I don’t get what is wrong with buying oil stock and coast for next 20 years. It is ridiculous at these prices. Even if people drive less and fly less, the enormous power source has no legit alternative.
“Good thing it’s “Under control.””
It is Lib, because….
“I’m not leaving my house with a hazmat suit”
Wash your hands and don’t touch your face and you literally have a near zero risk of infection.
3B – This I completely agree with and I am seeing first hand, in the oldest, stodgiest and low-tech of all industries, commercial real estate.
Fannie/Freddie/HUD have all just completed the “on-line transition” They utilized their network of lending partners and rolled this whole thing together amazingly fast. New UW standards, inspection requirements, online tracking systems, etc.
Big call this afternoon as they formally unveil it all to the market. I’ll report back anything interesting. But if FHA/HUD is now set up to get people working from home, then everyone else should be too. HUD is the slowest and least sophisticated technically of any GSE. Covid will have some silver linings that we will look back on when this is in the rear-view.
3b says:
March 31, 2020 at 10:04 am
Real estate prices will definitely be going down in this area and I can’t believe some say we were not in a bubble. People are losing jobs, taking salary cuts and all the rest. I also think people are going to think twice about being packed into apartments in Hoboken and Jersey City etc As well more companies will embrace work from home especially Wall Street jobs which were resistant to it, and realize the huge cost savings real estate wise, and that does not mean necessarily people flock back to the suburbs, as people can live anywhere now and work from home. Places like the Poconos and Catskills come to mind.
By – re: Oil. I am of the same school of thought. There is no way Russia, the Middle East and the US will live with sub 30/barrel. Calls between US-Russia and US-Saudi are already underway.
Add into that – the middle east will never maintain any semblence of peace. Even a small skirmish in an OPEC country will bounce oil. Add demand as the economy comes back in 3Q20.
I am long XOP at 7.92 (pre-split from yeserday 4:1). I also eat paint chips and should not be relied on for anything meaningful, just ask my wife.
“Many of these companies are expecting to be shut down for the long haul at this point. We have numerous offers to sublease, purchase outright, or buy any physical assets (computers, etc) of a number of domestic companies.”
The long term economic effect is the opportunity for a major reset. Burdened with underperforming assets? Business unit, real estate, or personnel? Gonzo. All three are closed now anyway, when we’re through the curve just don’t re-open any of them. The ability and cost of doing so in the context of the virus and its economic impact is as low as it will ever be.
This is the opportunity for a major economic cleansing. Once through it, the economic curve out is going to be a rocket ship for a few years.
Those left behind….yeah, it sucks…..and, especially good point made about the tradeoff of blowing up the most vulnerable economically and socially for a decade or better to avoid ‘only’ a 99.5% chance of living (more, if you’re young and healthy). Take whichever side of the cost of a life argument you want, but there is a very real life tradeoff for people who don’t have the luxury of blogging all day long.
Thanks Chi. Was thinkin sector based investing but point taken.
Personally, the 100k to 200k estimates seems to me like the governments way of trying to scare you into staying indoors instead of using military, police, and national guard. It’s working for a number of areas. Every neighborhood has their resident a**holes apparently. In the meantime, force appears to be needed in communities that keep insisting on celebrations and social gatherings.
“Wash your hands and don’t touch your face and you literally have a near zero risk of infection.”
Tell that to the 3,000 American’s who have died. Oh wait, we did.
I really wish it was that simple.
This administration did do something..
“Public health and national security experts shake their heads when President Donald Trump says the coronavirus “came out of nowhere” and “blindsided the world.”
They’ve been warning about the next pandemic for years and criticized the Trump administration’s decision in 2018 to dismantle a National Security Council directorate at the White House charged with preparing for when, not if, another pandemic would hit the nation.
“It would be nice if the office was still there,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institute of Health, told Congress this week. “I wouldn’t necessarily characterize it as a mistake (to eliminate the unit). I would say we worked very well with that office.””
“The previous three administrations had a chance to ramp up our readiness and did nothing.” True, but so is the following:
“This administration had a chance to ramp up our readiness and did nothing.”
2 questions.
1. The 55+ adult complexes being built or planned in our neck of the woods? Who would want to be next to their peer group after this?
2. When will Russia/China release a gold-backed blockchain’ed currency ?
“Florida is absolutely ground zero in the US, they just don’t know it yet.”
Grim, I’m coming up on two weeks down here so far…Florida should explode simply because of surface demographics – age and population. It will pop, but most likely around Miami-PB area because of the NY metro travelers. It will be interesting to see per capita infection rates. Anyway, despite getting the snot knocked out him nationally DeSantis has done a decent job, leaving most of the decisions to locals who seem to have acted appropriately.
Our beaches (more sparsely populated and not Spring Break heavy) were among the last to close…Palm beach and Naples have been locked down for a while. While more laid back than the NY metro area people seem to be observing good social distancing for the most part. Plus, I don’t think all the Spring Breakers who acquired and shared the virus are running out and visiting grandma in the LTC facility down here…..she’s not, and they are heading home, away from FL. The Spring Break antics will likely have much less effect on the locals here than may first appear.
In fact, here’s where the Spring Break virus is heading….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq2zuE3ISYU
I agree to disagree.
Also, IMO, this virus will have the opposite impact on working from home. I think people finally realize how nice it is to be able to leave your house, go to work, and socialize. I feel like a rat trapped in a cage right now. I will never ever sign up to work from home. It’s depressing and will increase the suicide rate.
Just my opinion….
3b says:
March 31, 2020 at 10:04 am
Real estate prices will definitely be going down in this area and I can’t believe some say we were not in a bubble. People are losing jobs, taking salary cuts and all the rest. I also think people are going to think twice about being packed into apartments in Hoboken and Jersey City etc As well more companies will embrace work from home especially Wall Street jobs which were resistant to it, and realize the huge cost savings real estate wise, and that does not mean necessarily people flock back to the suburbs, as people can live anywhere now and work from home. Places like the Poconos and Catskills come to mind.
And if you want to further plot where the curve will accelerate in coming days/next week….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5BFrDocPNs
“Tell that to the 3,000 American’s who have died. Oh wait, we did.
I really wish it was that simple.”
Then they die. Pretty simple.
No different than the drunk that repeatedly gets behind a wheel, an addict shooting up, an idiot teenager cliff jumping before checking for depth and rocks….
Stupidity has consequences. Not my job nor the government’s to protectyou from your own obviously idiotic decisions.
Covid will have some silver linings that we will look back on when this is in the rear-view.
The end of the House Tour Guide?
home,
Very good. Why not VDE at lower expense?
leftwing,
Nothing personal, because, really, it never is. But do you have any relatives in the care of a nursing home? My mother in law is. She could wash her hands till they disintegrate and she’s still got a death sentence.
This whole concept of asking the old to sacrifice themselves (or any group or individual) is easy to say, but much harder to do. Like I said. Call your folks and wish them goodbye. It’s for the children. (wha wha)
Remember, these are the same people who play, I got mine with Medicare, but fcuk you when it comes to socialized medicine. Sacrifice? They would just as well throw your ass under the bus.
Deadeconomy Thats because you are stuck at home, but when this thing passes you can view it differently. Huge savings for companies by dumping or reducing office space.
3b,
Was about to say same thing. Companies have been reducing footprint for years. We all moved to one floor last year with absolutely no space between employees. This will expedite the process. If/when this subsides, I get they give up lease and do WFH.
Lib,
I am in same situation. My mother just recovered from oral cancer. She was in Westchester nursing home when this broke out a month ago. She finished last radiation and we moved immediately to independent living within sticks of CT. She is sitting there now. Leftwing is a dolt.
Cool visual data
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data#
That nursing home is in complete lockdown now with a case. No one allowed to visit. Horrible for families.
Left is okay, but I still haven’t forgiven him for not coming over and saying hi when our kids were at a rink at the same time.
Heck, I’ve gone a double date with Gary (Fast Eddie), Nom I hang with quite frequently and I’d even buy Pumps a drink.
“A wise man gets more use from his enemies than a fool from his friends.”
Heck, I’ve gone a double date with Gary (Fast Eddie)
Tell them how good-looking I am. :-)
3b, savings at what cost?
It’s not a great thing to live and work from home. It’s depressing. And if this work from home thing plays out, they will digitally track your every move in your own house. Do not open up Pandor@’s box, this will get ugly real fast.
Think about your entire family working from home. If said husband and wife have a stressful job, you can count on a divorce coming as they go to war at home based off of stress created from work. Oh, you just had a stressful zoom meeting, and your wife did too, now let the fireworks begin.
I don’t think people are thinking this work at home thing clearly. Why would you always want to be available for your employer? They will never leave you alone. Talk about a living hell.
Another thing this will lead to. Now I’m going to have to create office space in my own house on my own dime so the employer can pocket more profit….get out of here. They paying my electricity bill since I won’t be able to lower ac or heat during the day? Or all the computer juice being used?
I think some people think they will be getting lots of free time while working from home….dream on. They will know your every move and will act on it. They will try to suck out as much blood as they can. Look at what happen with the advent emails and cell phones that could access emails? Ball and chain… Think about this long term before you advocate for it and ruin people’s lives.
It’s a positive thing to get out of the house everyday, come back to it free and clear from your boss. It’s a reward pulling into that driveway after a long day of work; free at last.
Savings for the employer, not for you
deadconomy says:
March 31, 2020 at 1:59 pm
3b, savings at what cost?
dead,
I don’t disagree but the 2009 bailout changed everything. Up until that time, I was still getting reimbursed for internet, phone as I had to deal with Sinapore during off hours. We also could get education reimbursement which I used quite often. Since that time, the focus has been completely on cost reduction to improve bottom line and enrich execs and shareholders. Now, I work all hours with no reimbursment for anything. Just paid for new home monitor but company won’t pay a dime, particuarly if in shared cost center. Perhaps you could fight it but red tape and time are not worth it. The answer for most companies is “you are lucky to have a job”.
Why are people panicking and stressing out about working from home for a few weeks? Entire families moved to North America on wind powered ships that took more than a month to cross the Atlantic or settled the west in horse drawn wagons that could take a year or more to reach their destination. They were crammed into tiny quarters and didn’t even have the internet, video games, and toilet paper didn’t exist.
I can see a couple living in a studio apartment in nyc having issues, but most middle class families live in much more spacious conditions and can bring their tablet or computer to a different room and read, listen to, or watch anything they want while enjoying some me time.
Dead economy I am not advocating for it, just simply say I believe it’s going to increase
The savings to the employer are too great not to. I have been doing it for two days a week for the last 3 years and I like it.
And yes they can track me and my office calls get forwarded to my cell phone.
I don’t deny there will be issues, and stressful but is it any less stressful now for those living in the suburbs to get up 5 days a week and get kids to daycare than trip into the city then commute home pick up kids feed bathe put to bed, rinse and repeat 5 days a week.
Joyce could be saving for employee as well, no monthly train ticket, lunch out and coffee, and dry cleaning bills.
Lib, never personal especially with you. Over the years you’ve helped me more than you know…On the rink, I’ve been around long enough to read parents faces lol. Didn’t think it was the time. Next time, or when this is all over we’ll meet up at grim’s hooch factory.
On the NH question, I have no one in currently but a grandparent recently passed and a parent with a busted pelvis were both there. Both missed the virus. For current residents, especially those that have passed….the innocent, unsuspecting, and vulnerable are often the first victims. Of course residents don’t control their own destiny in regard to the virus. But, it is entirely incumbent on the provider to protect them. Yes, that means no outside visitors, health screening the employees, etc.
The fact that NHs act on behalf of their residents who don’t function on their own doesn’t undercut my basic point.
If someone doesn’t want the virus it is entirely within their control….wash, don’t tough your face, social distance. Your probability of catching it is minimal, regardless of others’ actions. And regardless of whether/which politician over the past two decades did or did not say or do.
Keep safe and sane buddy.
Oh, and Bystander, go fcuk yourself :)
“Tell them how good-looking I am. :-)”
Well you do have a ravishing hair style.
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On WFH. I’ve been doing it 80% of the time since Daniel got sick. If you manage teams that work 24-7, it’s the absolute greatest. No commuting costs. Flexibility in work hours. Ease of working overtime. No distractions. Money saved from not eating out. The advantages are endless.
Now three of us WFH is a nightmare with the D doing teletherapy, Jr. doing remote schooling and Gator and her brother interrupting me all day. But it will make for some great memories.
Another data set….from a company that markets smart thermometers, aggregated. Has major analytical holes in that patients are highly self selecting (ie, those that have purchased the specific devices) but may be interesting nonetheless….
https://healthweather.us/
Been following this for a few weeks Left.
Florida is definitely heating up. I just spoke with my mom. She stupidly went to Walmart with a pancho on and mask. She said it was packed, so it’s a good thing she was protected. I told her to wash the pancho so I could wear it to her funeral.
LOL, but not really.
I don’t think I’ve butted heads with my parents as hard as I did in early March since I was 16…..
That’s the thing. Working from home is fine when it’s one or two days a week, and everyone else in your house is off to work/at school. In a world where everyone is forced to work from home, no thank you. It will be a disaster.
3b, believe it or not, I miss my commute (never thought I would say that). It’s “me” time, and it can be relaxing. I just never realized it till it was taken away from me. I just miss being around people. I’m sick of this “zoom” interaction.
What really grosses me out about this at home work…some people probably haven’t showered in days. I just hope this work from home movement dies a quick death.
Most of these people that enjoy working from home probably never leave the house. I’ll pass on that, not for me.. I want to live and enjoy social interaction.
2:57 relationships will be tested during quarantine. It’s a lot like being snowed-in.
2:45 each of us at some point has stopped the other from going out to pick something up. Even though these places (Target, Grocery Store..etc) are not crowded, usually, they are the only remaining ‘depots’ for germ collection and transmission.
Just wanted to add one thing. Everything has a cost. You see those savings, there goes the economy. Going to be much much smaller. These people will end up never leaving the house or workplace, whatever you want to call it, but it won’t be home in the traditional sense anymore.
“Huge savings for companies by dumping or reducing office space.”
“Joyce could be saving for employee as well, no monthly train ticket, lunch out and coffee, and dry cleaning bills.”
Want to crash the economy….get everyone to work from home. Sure, they will be saving money, as they participate less and less in the economy.
Office space alone….how much damage would eliminating that from the economy cause? Construction jobs alone, never mind janitors etc…
Deadeconomy I don’t disagree but it’s where it is going. Even before all of this more companies were exploring it and it will only increase.
Work from home is a nice option but it isn’t as effective as co-location. Getting people interacting a room brings better results. WFH with kids and wife managing her 50 person global team is a nightmare. Video conference suck almost as bad as telephone calls. If you were mostly working with offshore folks there isn’t much of a difference provided you are home alone.
Dallas county has over 600 covid 19 cases with 82 new cases today. There are more people in Dallas county in icu with covid 19 than there were with flu at the height of the flu season and covid is just starting in this area.
30% of positive cases had to be hospitalized. About 75% of hospitalized are 60+ or have another condition. 28% have diabetes.
Testing is still hard to get so who knows how many people have mild to no symptoms
WFH is not for everyone. As a manager, I have to do a lot more big brothering. For example, in Skype for Business, I receive an alert whenever a team member logs in and out of the system. It certainly helps to have a bit of an IT background so I can tell by IP if they are really where they are supposed to be. Ultimately, I track my workers by their performance, not so much by their digital timecards. But you can never let your guard down, because it’s to easy for a team member to not work when they should be.
I manage both hourly and salaried workers. I have strict rules in place for when people are flexing their schedules. Especially the hourly workers, since there could be huge legal implications, say they get into a car accident while punched in.
I will say this. Very, very, very, few people who work from home (alone) dislike it. Additionally, I have a policy where WFH’s must come into the office at least once per month. This ends up being more valuable to the WFH than they know.
Me thinks it possible that unions will try to organize docs and nurses once things quiet down.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/hospitals-tell-doctors-they-ll-be-fired-if-they-talk-to-press
I used to work remotely in territory sales. Now I suppose those jobs are being conducted primarily by phone calls/teleconferences. The places I worked sold mission critical gear so results mattered. Where you were? Not so much. I made a lot of money
for the firms I worked for. My favorite part? Being on my own. Exploring areas like Chicagoland and NYC while being paid. Sure you can slip away for a golf game occasionally. Not being tethered to a desk was key in those days. Does anyone remember having a Beeper!?
Thanks Lib for returning my call the the other day.
Thanks Grim for restarting the forum, and to all that contribute as there is so much to learn on here. I’ve learned more on this forum than most others.
Right now i’m seeing things I never thought I would see in my lifetime.
Gotta keep working, non stop where I am.
Stay home as much as you can. If it want’s you it will outrun you.
I hate WFH for all the reasons stated above… need the routine, the commute the interaction with co-workers, etc. It’s an old school thing. When I WFH, my family thinks I can do chores in between conference calls, Zoom sessions and whatever else comes up. Like most of you, work can be mentally challenging to the limit and the WFH thing becomes more of a distraction. And, I agree with most when you say you’re at your company’s disposal because I’ve been logged on since 6:30 AM covering UK and NY overlap and I’m still going.
Very true about Skype conference calls
https://youtu.be/JMOOG7rWTPg
Or even better!
https://youtu.be/DYu_bGbZiiQ
Still can’t reason with my in laws on not going out. It’s a lost cause at this point.
As far as my tropical vacationing neighbors who are supposed to be under 14 day quarantine. I look out the window and her 3 kids are digging in my flower garden that I finished 2 days ago. I go outside and scream “what the f!!!”. I hear from the distance “oh is that ok?” Diggin up the flowers I spent weeks seeding indoors? She was like “they have to look for bugs for their homework assignment.” I think I’m going to set up an electric fence at this point.
WHO losing credibility by the day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlCYFh8U2xM
Regarding left or bystander or others….. my real point is kind of where left was going….. much of this permanent shutdown potential is sourced in that which was fuct anyway….. it is just an elegant method to cease being a going concern….. whatever that business was…..
Regarding the energy industry………. the problem with oil/gas is multi-fold…. there was a secular diminishment of that industry in advance of all these COVID-19 issues. There is ESG-bots, Bernie Fandroids, and the EU basically committed to eradicating these guys, if not criminalizing them.
Also this Saudi/Russia thing is not so easy…… if the U.S. sticks their nose in the middle, they will say to Trump, make your frackers stop flooding the market with oil. Why should we start pumping when you stupid a$$holes are adding to supply on negative marginal cost barrels (e.g., avoiding technical loan defaults)…….. our problem is that we are capitalists and they are centrally controlled.
The whole thing can certainly be resolved, but don’t think that we aren’t in the deep, deep, deep end of the pool sh!t and risk is higher than it appears on its face.
chicagofinance says:
March 31, 2020 at 11:27 am
You are stating the what…….. the real question is why?
grim says:
March 31, 2020 at 11:26 am
Many of these companies are expecting to be shut down for the long haul at this point.
Why should we STOP pumping when you stupid a$$holes are adding to supply on negative marginal cost barrels (e.g., avoiding technical loan defaults)…….. our problem is that we are capitalists and they are centrally controlled.
Home Buyer,
LOL… so dead on!
Or even better!
https://youtu.be/DYu_bGbZiiQ
Work from home is awesome when you are alone.
Home with kids and wife all the time? Yeah I will go to the office and take my chances with the Wuhan Wheeze.
Just a few weeks in and here we are with the 7th Fed cash for trash program. This time to outright stop dumping of US Treasuries.
“The facility reduces the need for (foreign) central banks to sell their Treasury securities outright and into illiquid markets, which will help to avoid disruptions to the Treasury market and upward pressure on yields. By allowing central banks to use their securities to raise dollars quickly and efficiently, the facility will also support local markets in U.S. dollars and bolster broader market confidence,” the Fed explained. “Stabilizing foreign dollar markets, in turn, will support foreign economic conditions and thereby benefit the U.S. economy through many channels, including confidence and trade.”
Write in Powell for President.
As much as we have heard the press lament their treatment by Trump directly out of his own fat mouth calling out their bullsh*t gotcha questions has Trump actually sicked the DOJ on them yet?
Aka James Rosen’s type of stuff, real constitutional stuff NOT about the feelings of the press, but the actual freedom of the press?
Some here complained so I am just asking… I will elaborate the difference between FEELINGS and FREEDOM of the press.
Has Trump invoked the 1917 Espionage Act against the press like when Eric Holder issued secret search warrants and declared a journalist a “flight risks” all over a leak about some North Korean nonsense?
Just curious….
“I look out the window and her 3 kids are digging in my flower garden that I finished 2 days ago. I go outside and scream “what the f!!!”. I hear from the distance “oh is that ok?””
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udfhBjR-FtA
I am now amazed. it took allot more than 9/11….. AND much shorter time…has to be our connected lives AKA social media.