C19 Open Discussion Week 4b

From TechCrunch:

Commercial real estate could be in trouble — even after this is over

Commercial real estate owners, brokers, and landlords have collectively made many hundreds of billions of dollars a year in recent years as the economy zipped along.

Now, they’re getting clobbered by the pandemic-fueled economic crisis. Worse, their industry may be forever changed by it.

To state the obvious, extracting rent from nearly anyone right now is problematic. According to the National Multifamily Housing Council, just 69% of U.S. households had paid their rent by April 5 compared with the 81% who’d paid by March 5 and the 82% who paid by the same time last year.

That statistic will almost assuredly look worse by May 5, given the soaring numbers of both laid-off and furloughed employees.

On the commercial side, the problem is beginning to look as dire. In addition to the countless small retail and restaurant businesses that may be forced to permanently vacate their commercial spaces because they can no long afford them, a growing number of corporate chains is also beginning to prove unwilling or able to pay their rent.

WeWork, for example, has stopped paying rent at some U.S. locations while it tries to renegotiate leases, says the WSJ, this even as the co-working company continues to charge its own tenants.

StaplesSubway and Mattress Firm have also stopped paying rent as a way to strong-arm building owners into rent reductions, lease amendments and other courses of action designed to offset the losses they are incurring because of the coronavirus.

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121 Responses to C19 Open Discussion Week 4b

  1. homeboken says:

    IHME model recast with another downward projection in death count. Current projections are 30k-120k total US deaths.

    Weren’t we at 240k like 3 days ago??

    I am sticking to my 25-30k guess.

    Meanwhile – unemployment claims today-guesses there anyone?

  2. grim says:

    For all the talk of C19 indiscriminately killing everyone.

    Sure looks to be fairly well contained to 65+ with serious underlying health issues.

  3. homeboken says:

    What is more reliable, IHME models or a Yun NRA model?

  4. dentss dunngan says:

    Well if 35 to 45 people die then Trump has saved some lives because they were projected north of 150K …

  5. deadconomy says:

    “Staples, Subway and Mattress Firm have also stopped paying rent as a way to strong-arm building owners into rent reductions, lease amendments and other courses of action designed to offset the losses they are incurring because of the coronavirus.”

    Throw them on the street. Tell them that they don’t like it, there is the door. Govt was so ignorant to put in place a 90 day no eviction and 90 day mortgage forbearance. What did they think people were going to do? The selfish bastards will always act in their self interest and try to game the system. So why in the world did the govt have to come out and say this 90 day nonsense.

    This economy is so screwed, it’s not even funny. And the govt is partly to blame for opening up Pandor@’s box by saying you don’t have to pay rent/mortgage to tenants and mortgage holders.

  6. homeboken says:

    DD – there are only 2 plausible reasons, to me:

    1. The response and actions of state, local and federal government (yes that means Trump and the task force) has been incredibly effective.
    2. The models that we used to make the shit down decisions were horrible. Talking multiple standard-deviations off from actual results.

    Either one, maybe both. Smart people recognize mistakes and what works. And we need to remember this next time.

  7. deadconomy says:

    If govt wanted to help, they give access to short term loans for people that can’t pay rent or mortgages. Instead they put all the pain on landlords and banks/mortgage companies. Absolutely brilliant, Uncle Sam. They are going to take out a lot of landlords and mortgage companies… because we all know tenants are never paying this back and will eventually be evicted after not paying 5-6 months of rent. Same with mortgage companies…

  8. homeboken says:

    6.606mm new jobless claims. 1 week.

    Over 16mm in the last 3 weeks.

    Get used to lockdown – once it’s lifted, you aren’t going back to work anyway.

  9. deadconomy says:

    The irony in all this…. Where will the tenants live when no one wants to take on the risk of being a landlord anymore? Not making money on appreciation and not making money on rent. Who in their right mind would get into this? And the long term consequence is less available homes to rent, aka less affordable housing. Everyone happy now?

  10. deadconomy says:

    Who is going to rent to someone that just skipped out on rent payments for 6 months and was evicted or stopped paying their mortgage? What a mess…

  11. FakeNewsHoaxes says:

    Imagine if trump had come out and advised the populace to reduce their BMI to healthy levels and exercise? It’s your best defense today. Progressives would have lost their minds. They hate individual and largely the truth.

  12. deadconomy says:

    I don’t think people realize how bad it is.. and it’s not just us.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/canadian-real-estate-markets-hit-hard-by-pandemic-1.5525681

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    Imagine if trump had come out and advised the populace to reduce their BMI to healthy levels and exercise?

    I’ve been saying this for some time. It’s personable responsibility to take care of yourself.

  14. FakeNewsHoaxes says:

    Eddie. I know a few who claim to have gained significant weight since being shut in. Good luck with the wuhan flu when you can’t catch your breath after walking up the stairs.

  15. homeboken says:

    There is a very thin rental supply for someone with a recent eviction on their tenant history. And the quality of that thin supply is not what anyone would consider desirable.

  16. deadconomy says:

    “In the fourth quarter, household net worth to gross domestic product was a record 545%. “If you have followed my writings for a while, you’ll be aware that total wealth in society cannot grow faster than nominal GDP over the long term, and that every country has a well-defined mean value in terms of the wealth-to-GDP ratio. In the U.S., that mean value is 380%. In other words, when the actual wealth-to-GDP ratio deviates too much from 380%, you know that the ratio will mean revert at some point. You just don’t know when,” he said.

    Property and equities are the two asset classes most exposed to a decline in wealth, he said.”

  17. Fast Eddie says:

    DOW futures up after claims number. Anyone care to speculate?

  18. Juice Box says:

    Eddie – expectation was 5 million number came in at 6.6 million.

    That 16.6 million claims in three weeks. If this keeps up we will be hitting that 30 million dollar number sooner than later.

  19. Juice Box says:

    By next month 30 million unemployed. Were are the government employee furloughs? Tax receipts are going to be way way down, there is no bones about it now. Pay cuts across the board and all non-essential government employees should be furloughed.

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    I would think that if claims exceed forecasts than it’s obviously worse than expected. The futures across the board rose on greater (worse) numbers. It’s illogical, unless the market is factoring future outcome based on other variables.

  21. deadconomy says:

    I’m convinced the economy is shot. Took a bullet to the chest and is slowly bleeding out.

  22. A Home Buyer says:

    Every government employee is essential.

    Otherwise, why are you paying so much in taxes?

    They wouldn’t have been hired if they were not essential!

  23. homeboken says:

    Juice – I think you are correct. The economic impact of this is still a total Effin mystery. But we all agree that every day we all stay closed hurts badly. We all sacrificed to this point in order to flatten the C19 curve.

    I predict we will shift gears soon and understand that our unemployment curve has gone parabolic in the last 3 weeks. That is now the curve I am interested in flattening. My guess is we can’t print our way out of this.

  24. homeboken says:

    Eddie – My guess is – the situation is worse than expected, so the market swallows the bad news ASAP and moves to step 2 which virtually assures more stimulus CARES ACT version 2 (4?). So asset prices respond in an inflationary manner.

  25. Juice Box says:

    Anyone care to speculate? Man behind the curtain buying futures. Central bank(s) intervention, unlimited QE, and swaps. If it’s illegal for our Fed to buy the futures then perhaps our “partners” in other dark corners of the world are.

    Fr example what did the central banks of Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Singapore, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and New Zealand have to do to get the 1/2 trillion in swap lines?

  26. Juice Box says:

    homeboken – Federal tax reciepts have to be way way down. Employers can now defer payment of their 6.2% share of Social Security tax on wages paid from March 27 through December 31, that was in the CARES ACT bailout bill that passed. That is a a massive drop in tax receipts for those that are working never mind the hundreds of billions of from those now unemployed.

  27. xolepa says:

    Grim, please moderate

  28. Juice Box says:

    What good is it to lend to main st if main st is closed?

  29. Hold my beer says:

    I saw on YouTube channel China in focus that China is now making fake masks. Over 5,400 companies that never made masks registered to make them since mid January in China. And lots if those masks are subpar.

  30. Hold my beer says:

    My area is about to get hit hard with covid. The county called everyone’s phone to do a broadcast conference call on corona. They said expect a wave of cases soon, too many people are going out for non essential things and not doing social distancing, and testing is still very limited.

    Officials have been saying for a while that after Easter is when this area will get bad.

    On the bright side i still have 42 rolls of toilet paper, a box of Nancy Drews, and a box of Tom Clancy novels so I have wiping material for months

  31. Juice Box says:

    beer- Take a look at what customs has been finding landing on just our shores. CDC put up a nice collage of the fake stuff.

    https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    Beer,

    Where do you live? Approximately?

  33. xolepa says:

    Adding to my earlier comment (in moderation, as of this writing)

    My oldest son is a Teaching professor and highly specialized Doctor at RJW. He was pulled off his regular duties and is now in the front lines. It takes him just about an hour each day to get suited up at the hospital and is strictly watched while doing this. He has not been in personal contact with his wife and young kids for about two weeks. Wife decided to take kids and leave to her mother. But that’s only after mother was quarantied for almost two weeks.

    Other son is doing residence in SE Florida. He also was pulled off rotation and placed in Frontline. His spouse is not too happy and her being French born, is very concerned about her family back in France. Apparently, France and most of Europe have VERY strict lockdowns right now. Police will stop you right away if you venture outside. We also have friends in Belgium. All five of their grown children, none married, are back in their childhood home, waiting this out.

  34. homeboken says:

    Economic Version

    xolepa says:
    April 9, 2020 at 9:50 am
    Adding to my earlier comment (in moderation, as of this writing)

    My oldest son is a blue-collar employee and highly specialized at his craft. He was fired as the future business pipeline has totally dried up. He spends about 4 hours each day to searching for a job so he might be able to support his family. Wife decided to take kids and leave to her mother, their marriage is all but over. The depression is setting in and I am worried he will return to his drinking/drug abuse of the past.

    X – I feel for your personal situation, I really do. I hope your family stays safe and I appreciate their work. I appreciate all work. Non-Essential workers that have been fired have a different view of how “essential” their job was.

  35. Hold my beer says:

    Fast Eddie

    I’m in the Arlington Texas area. With no traffic about 25-30 minutes away from both downtown Dallas and downtown Fort Worth. During rush hour an hour to 1.5 hours away from both.

  36. Juice Box says:

    Xolepa – I applaud your sons for stepping up as many of here are powerless to help other than donations.

    Some prophylaxis efficacy studies for the front line medical workers around the world are ramping up now.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/trials-drugs-prevent-coronavirus-infection-begin-health-care-workers#

    Here’s some other info from other doctors leading this charge here.

    https://twitter.com/aknappjr

  37. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    IHME model recast with another downward projection in death count. Current projections are 30k-120k total US deaths.

    Weren’t we at 240k like 3 days ago??

    I am sticking to my 25-30k guess.

    Meanwhile – unemployment claims today-guesses there anyone?

    Their strategy seems to be, scare the hell out of people, because we can’t violate their civil rights to keep them from interacting with each other.

  38. chicagofinance says:

    Huge fight happening at S&P 500 2,800

    Fast Eddie says:
    April 9, 2020 at 9:05 am
    DOW futures up after claims number. Anyone care to speculate?

  39. Juice Box says:

    Landscapers are here for the first time this year.

    When does the governor ban them too?

  40. deadconomy says:

    “But recent experience also shows something else: While the Fed’s bond buying and money printing don’t always lead to general inflation, it does lead to excessive borrowing and inflation in asset prices — stocks, bonds, real estate and other investments. And when those bubbles finally burst, they result in significant losses of wealth, income, jobs and income security for millions of people who suffer the full impact from the busts without reaping much benefit from the booms.

    In the end, the real cost of printing and spending trillions of dollars to rescue the economy is not likely to come in the form of higher taxes to pay debt service or higher inflation that reduces our standard of living. Instead, the price will be paid by having a boom-and-bust economy in which the level of indebtedness, the depth of the recession and the size of the government rescue increase with each cycle, until the world finally loses faith and we are forced to give up our exorbitant privilege, much as Britain did a century ago.
    Nobody knows when that tipping point might be reached. But it is worth noting that the United States has already gone from being the world’s largest creditor to the world’s largest debtor, and our lead in that dubious category is widening by the day.
    So as we enjoy the benefits of our $2 trillion free lunch, we might do well to remember the advice of a wise economist, Herb Stein, who famously reminded us that “if something can’t go on forever, it will stop.””

  41. homeboken says:

    Can I ask a political question to those that are smarter about such things?

    Bernie is “suspending” his campaign but he is staying on the ballot and hopes to continue to collect delegates. What is the plan here?

    Is it really as simple as wanting to hold weight at convention and pull Joe further left? Or is there something deeper here?

    The whole D primary process is confusing to me. I still can’t fathom a world where the DNC keeps Biden at the top of the ticket. They are already in the press telling me about the dream-team cabinet he will pick, and how great his VP choice will be. What kind of way is that to try and win an election?

    It’s like saying “We know our CEOis really weak, but look at all this awesome support staff!”

  42. Bystander says:

    Dead,

    The fake economy driven by Fed underpinning has been in play since 2010. At some point, unemployment recovered, home prices stabilized, businesses returned to profitabilty. Instead, they inserted some BS inflation target mandate to keep rates low. I would say somewhere around late 2014, the Fed should have moderately started raising rates. We only got two in two years. By 2017, the Fed started to raise rates. They were swallowed by market. After Dumpy’s (Ryan’s) unneeded tax cut, they tried to squash his ridiculous attempt at market pump. By end of 2018, market dropped to more sustainable levels but Dumpy did not like it so went on campaign to tear Oz Powell a new arse hole. It worked and Oz capitualted by dropping rates back down during the “greatest economy ever”, really unprecedented stuff. He kept it going with repo bailouts and Tbill QE since last year. Oz now has keys to the kingdom with this bailout. It is pathetic. No idea where it will go but Dems and Rs seem not to care. There is no way that this does not lead to major inflation..probably by summer. Businesses will try to make up lost revenue by increasing prices. Should be a full on sh&t show by fall and unemployment hovers at 20%.

  43. Juice Box says:

    TBTF? and WTF!

    Seems there is an answer as to why the banks are not quickly lending out the $350 Billion to small businesses.

    Wells Fargo had only $10 billion available below their asset cap of 1.95 trillion for the new SBA loan program and they have 170,000 applications already.

    They have been barred from growing its assets above $1.95 trillion for more than two years, they are now crying uncle and need their lending cap raised, the Fed has obliged.

    What other TBTF bank has the same lending cap predicament?

  44. ExEssex says:

    “This” is the event most people have been fearing along with huge reversals of fortunes.
    Yes personal responsibility is important but couple that with a macro-economic steam roller and you have only thoughts and prayers.

  45. Thursday notboken says:

    Homeboken,

    The Clinton democratic machine is like the communist party in the Soviet Union circa 1982. A bunch of septa & octagenerians waiting for the worms. It has no passion. All deadwood.

    Bernie is really old but is carrying the passion bucket that will get people to the polls. Without Bernie, Trump will win again. Yeah he is a grifter crook. But an incompetent one worthy of a Hudson County mayor like Russo or Cammarano. The Clinton democratic machine are crooks and are competent at it, just look at the economic damage of their treasonable sale of the economy to commie China. That is the real danger.

  46. Juice Box says:

    What is the plan here? Party politics and influence peddling.

    They want their progressive people on the DNC committees for the convention, right now the deck is stacked with old guard, there will be tremendous battles re-shaping the future of the party at the convention even though Bernie is headed to the pile of candidate bodies in the corner.

  47. Juice Box says:

    re: “without Bernie, Trump will win again”

    I have a feeling AOC her small cadre of followers and more than a a few Bernie bros aren’t going to take this last hurrah of the boomers lightly.

    History Rhymes, if they do not create the so-called “convention bounce” by unifying the party (which has a majority of voters by a wide wide margin this time) they will lose, perhaps not as bad as McGovern but hey what do I know, I am just a simple cobbler.

  48. RentL0rd says:

    For all the talk of C19 indiscriminately killing everyone.

    Sure looks to be fairly well contained to 65+ with serious underlying health issues.

    Grim, South Brunswick reported 4 deaths so far (in last couple of days actually) – Mother and daughter 33 and 70. And two men 46 and 60.

  49. RentL0rd says:

    Ugh.. the quote did not work.. the first two lines are Grim’s comments.

  50. A Home Buyer says:

    The issue isn’t that no one younger will succumb, it’s that by and large it’s asymptomatic or mild for those under 65 without conditions.

    Does your specific cases include their health status, and it does it rule out genetic predisposition to the pathways the disease takes?

  51. Juice Box says:

    More than anecedotal study antibody study being done now in California now. Perhaps early exposure fall of 2019 and development of herd immunity?

    MONTEREY, Calif. —Researchers at Stanford Medicine are working to find out what proportion of Californians have already had COVID-19. The new study could help policymakers make more informed decisions during the coronavirus pandemic.

    The team tested 3,200 people at three Bay Area locations on Saturday using an antibody test for COVID-19 and expect to release results in the coming weeks. The data could help to prove COVID-19 arrived undetected in California much earlier than previously thought.

    The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state’s lower than expected case numbers.

    As of Tuesday, the state had 374 reported COVID-19 fatalities in a state of 40 million people, compared to New York which has seen 14 times as many fatalities and has a population half that of California. Social distancing could be playing a role but New York’s stay-at-home order went into effect on March 22, three days after California implemented its order.

    https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study-investigates-californias-possible-herd-immunity-to-covid-19/32073873

  52. homeboken says:

    Juice – I do have to give enormous credit to Bernie. He had passionate support and a real message. I disagree with almost all of his policy choices but he was consistent and drew enthusiasm.

    I agree, the Democratic party is being reshaped right before our eyes. I will be hopeful that they come out of this with a strong message for the future. But it is shocking to me that the party is going to re-shape because of 1 guy that has been in elected government for 30+ years, and NEVER been a registered member of the party. Think about that.

  53. Thursday NotBoken says:

    Juice, you got to go back to the 1960’s to understand what is going on.

    Up to 1965 or so. GOP was the party of the eastern establishment – Boston to DC -Thurston Howell III and upper middle class professionals. The Dems were working class labor, liberals and DIXIECRATS. When LBJ signed voters and civil rights legislation the DIXIECRATS bolted for the GOP. By the the mid-70’s they had hijacked the GOP from the eastern establishment calling them RINO and molded the present GOP, which scared off a lot of the old Eastern Establishment.

    What Clinton did was to whistle to those Eastern Establishment folks and told them com here, while he kicked the economic poor/working class/labor off having influence in the party. Clinton replaced economic liberal with social liberal – those are two different things.

    That is why today. Ask any well off northeastern physician/lawyer/businesman and he will identified as a dem, really socially liberal, economic conservative. But they belong in the GOP, and they should fight for a socially liberal GOP and check mate the power of the socially conservative “old dixiecrats”.

    The issue is that there are three predominantly political nexus fighting for control of two party. Frankly one of them (socially and economic conservative) already won one – the GOP – until Trump screw their pooch. The fight is for the socially liberal and economic conservatives vs the socially and economic liberals for control of the Dems.

    Yes, control of the party means what law firms, pr firms, fundraisers, event coordinators, get their palm greased and lives high of the hog for 4 years +

  54. Grim fan (not the first nor last) says:

    Long time lurker and rare poster echoing some educated comments here from a more JSP perspective…

    Against the advice of some smart heads here I’ve kept too much powder dry believing that cash will ultimately prevail. This past week my suspicion has turned to confirmation in observing that catastrophes like covid and tremendous unemployment figures are simply more fuel for larger rounds of printing.

    It’s clear that the corrupt d’bags in DC have no problem with crushing the dollar sooner rather than later in their mission to inflate away the country’s massive unpayable debts, while grabbing while the grabbing is good.

    Unfortunately I’ve never been any kind of gambler trader and have no idea how to evaluate a balance sheet, though I wonder how much fundamentals really matter that much these days.

    Today I suppose I need to stop wringing my hands and spend most of that powder on outrageously overvalued equities – going in NOW and BIG. It’s gonna feels kind of sh!tty but at least we still have our health, my job and little unsecured debt – good place to be.

    Thank you for reading my therapeutic vent.

  55. Juice Box says:

    So Schools in Pennsylvania will be closed for the remainder of the school year.

    Guess we are next, what about all of those families that cannot work from home? This is going to create an even greater economic disaster, as parents will have to now choose between work and their children. 70% of American workers can’t work from home even if they want to.

  56. Juice Box says:

    Not even considering moving the remainder of the school year to July and August either? Telling 70% of the workforce to forgo one or even two incomes to become a homeschooling luddite and still pay full taxes for schools isn’t going to work they did not do it in Asia, schools are re-opening in Asia.

  57. Fast Eddie says:

    PARIS (Reuters) – Being overweight is a major risk for people infected with the new coronavirus and the United States is particularly vulnerable because of high obesity levels there, France’s chief epidemiologist said on Wednesday.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-confinement/obesity-is-major-covid-19-risk-factor-says-french-chief-epidemiologist-idUSKBN21Q0S7

  58. BoomerRemover says:

    As you guys know my child’s daycare has been billing customers in full. The rationalization is that while you still have a job you should keep paying, in full.

    That daycare center offers live classes for an additional fee. Sometime ago my wife and I cut a check for ballet lessons for our 3 year old. I think she may have had three of ten lessons.

    What I expected from the instructor was an email that read something like this: Hey parents! I know you’ve all cut checks for X lessons and now this happened, hows about I get on the iPad and try to divert their attention for 30 minutes (yeah right, wishful thinking, she a DINK?) so you can get some work done.

    What I received was an email offering to do lessons via video and asking for monetary donations to “help in these difficult times.” B, you already cashed my check!

    I don’t know this individuals situation, and acknowledge there’s a certain amount of luck that helps to nudge people along paths in life, but I am not going to be the lender of last resort for the personally irresponsible.

    I blame the gofundme’s of the world for emboldening an entire generation of people to simply ask.

  59. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    A friggin 5 minute monsoon just swooped through my property and took out 8 seeding trays. I went out and salvage the rest. The rain pelting my face stung. It knocked over my neighbors basketball hoop.

  60. homeboken says:

    Juice – I really wish there was a real time way to show, en masse, how foolish these long-term closures are for citizens (state and national). I would love to start a movement in NJ – Any single closure beyond what the Federal Gov’t applies, MUST include corresponding tax rebates for lost services, schools, parks, etc. Also want to see government workers furloughed/laid off to compensate for the upcoming lost tax revenue.

    Imagine this – we all do our part, we shut down the economy to save people. Hooray!
    Our reward for doing so – Now you have no job, your kids have no school and likely, nowhere to go all summer. State and local taxes go up up up, someone is gonna pay for this “stimulus”. Of course, you have no job so you end up defaulting on your mortgage and get a tax lien.

    But hey – at least Grandma Gertrude gets to die “naturally” at 78 years old as opposed to “un-naturally” at 77.

  61. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Boomer, sounds like a small claims lawsuit in a few months.

  62. homeboken says:

    By the way, the best way to show instant disapproval is the organized protest. Who wants to gather in Trenton to make our case to the Governor.

    Oh wait, your 1st ammendment right to peacefully assemble is eliminated. Covid and all.

  63. BoomerRemover says:

    the great JPOW tithe

    h—s://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/06/828462517/another-break-from-the-past-government-will-help-churches-pay-pastor-salaries?fbclid=IwAR1YGRO_PSgzM5B06_SqwIzWgjU5dHH8Pear0X5Oo7jWHn568xMGaghmd3s

  64. BoomerRemover says:

    BRT – With whom as the plaintiff?

  65. Juice Box says:

    homeboken -The flatten the curve plan was supposed to be short term, who wants to be on a team that only punts when it’s 4th and 1 to go? I am hoping the antibody study Stanford and others are doing now will come out in a week or two and tells us what is really going on so we can get back to work already. Anyone at risk, lock them in their homes and give them free streaming and free meals and free groceries delivered to their front doors, the rest of us should get back to work (with social distancing etc) it’s been a month already time is almost up.

  66. Juice Box says:

    re: monsoon good amount of hail coming down now, should be over in 5 minutes. Glad I had the trees all trimmed the first week of March..

  67. joyce says:

    New Jersey is starting to see signs the rate of infection from the coronavirus pandemic is slowing in the state, Gov. Gov. Phil Murphy said Thursday while stressing that cases and deaths are still going up and more work needs to be done.

    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/nj-coronavirus-infection-rates-show-real-progress-from-lockdown-social-distancing-gov-murphy-says.html

  68. joyce says:

    Looking back on the numbers… The rate of growth started to decline weeks ago. Well before the 2-3 week time lag from when the social distancing started to when it would show up in confirmed cases.

  69. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I’d be filing a lawsuit against the daycare immediately.

  70. A Home Buyer says:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-ventilators-some-doctors-try-reduce-use-new-york-death-rate-2020-4


    “The ventilator itself can do damage to the lung tissue based on how much pressure is required to help oxygen get processed by the lungs,” she said.

    Crazy that we are upending our manufacturer facilities to make a product that may actually be the problem. Imagine if we find out that not only are the newly made non certified ventilators didn’t help, but actually we’re the cause of lung damage or death…

    On top of the costs for the manufacturer switch of lines and the then moving back to normal process…

  71. deadconomy says:

    “Against the advice of some smart heads here I’ve kept too much powder dry believing that cash will ultimately prevail. This past week my suspicion has turned to confirmation in observing that catastrophes like covid and tremendous unemployment figures are simply more fuel for larger rounds of printing.

    It’s clear that the corrupt d’bags in DC have no problem with crushing the dollar sooner rather than later in their mission to inflate away the country’s massive unpayable debts, while grabbing while the grabbing is good.”

    Post nails it. It’s disgusting. Thanks for sharing.

  72. deadconomy says:

    Bystander, I think you described it perfectly in your post. There is going to be major carnage from the actions of the last 15 years. They just won’t let this bubble burst…till one day they can’t do a thing about it. Guess be a donkey and just live it up while they are still getting away with printing money.

  73. BoomerRemover says:

    The market is so crazy that I just can’t pull the trigger on SPXU short term at the moment. I mean nothing is certain, but it’s wild out there. I can’t help to think we’ll open up +3-5% tomorrow.

  74. No One says:

    Today’s rally was apparently about the govt buying junk bonds, and stimulating a junk rally.
    Step 1: government keeps interest rates super unnaturally low for a decade, leading people and companies to borrow more and increase leverage
    Step 2: government passes emergency regulations shutting down thousands of businesses and putting millions out of work
    Step 3: after seeing that investors change stock and bond prices reacting to the consequences of #1 and #2, government attempts to cover up that evidence by manipulating up those bond prices, allowing some alert institutions to sell their troubled debt to the government
    Step 4: the nation is poorer and more indebted than it started
    Step 5: blame capitalism

  75. Juice Box says:

    Crap power is out now , sun is out but it’s still pretty windy, my guess it’s trees on the main road as those people never trim back the branches, and have been the cause of the last few outages.

  76. deadconomy says:

    Yes, capitalism will be blamed in the end, and we will all be worst off because of it. Sad…

    Isn’t that amazing? Govt buys junk bonds… comedy

  77. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Too bad JJ’s not here to inform us all of the bonds that are going to be bailed out 100% that you can buy for pennies on the dollar.

  78. No One says:

    Yes – and buying junk bonds doesn’t actually even ease any company’s debt burden!
    It just makes their bonds look like they are in less trouble.
    I scanned a database using a somewhat faulty Merton Model based probability of default estimate – and saw companies with about $1.7 trillion of debt that had (in this flawed model) a 30% or higher probability of default estimate. These were only from companies listed on stock exchanges. The stocks attached to those debts have surged the last couple days.

    I don’t know how much shaky debt exists in the private equity world, or the debt of the shadow finance world.

    These are the kind of thoughts that keep me from becoming too bullish on this first dip. Looks like historically bad economies, why not expect a market dip as big as other historically bad economies? The big question is whether these bad economies unearth big debt vulnerabilities, because that’s what turns something like this into a financial crisis.

  79. Fast Eddie says:

    I miss sports.

  80. Juice Box says:

    Week old but pretty good stuff if you have an hour.

    Oil and Gas, Airlines, Logistics, Hospitality, Banking….these company are now bankrupt…we now need to shift to a more resilient system. Talks about getting people back to work in bands and then supply change changes here.

    Pomp Podcast #256: Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya on How To Invest in This Crisis

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hA3TV1bGsg&feature=emb_logo

  81. No One says:

    BRT,
    I miss JJ too, but my recollection of his last idea was Puerto Rican bonds that I suspect turned into his Waterloo. He disappeared from here not so long after.

    Does Grim or anyone else know if he’s still alive (and out of jail)?

  82. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Last supposed post we saw, was claiming he was in the Trump administration. Someone apparently said he moved to Maryland at some point. Puerto Rican bonds…haha. All your picks can’t be winners.

  83. JCer says:

    BRT, he was totally Trump administration type material…….it all makes sense now

  84. grim says:

    Oh I love Prashant.

  85. Juice Box says:

    Grim, got room on your team? You must need a peasant or two.,..

  86. grim says:

    Couple of scientists looking for coronavirus DNA in wastewater treatment plants says it’s far more widespread than testing would indicate.

  87. Fabius Maximus says:

    If Trump came out and asked us to reduce our BMI, the collective call would have been, “You first Lard Ass!”

    So you Internet MDs, if Donnie gets it, are you prescribing assuming his past history with “Colombian Marching Powder”?
    https://www.newsweek.com/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-france-heart-cardiac-1496810

  88. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    The cardiac risk is first off very rare, and 2nd, easily identifiable. You just give them a 1/4 dose and monitor EKG. No change…good to go. Change…that’s a red flag. This medication is not dangerous.

  89. leftwing says:

    “Staples, Subway and Mattress Firm have also stopped paying rent as a way to strong-arm building owners into rent reductions, lease amendments and other courses of action designed to offset the losses they are incurring because of the coronavirus.”

    “Throw them on the street. Tell them that they don’t like it, there is the door.”

    I’ll take the other side of that trade. Any commercial landlord eats rent. All the time. Change of tenants. Buildouts. Unforeseen events like Sandy (I got four months commercial rent free on that one). No commercial landlord wants to toss a good tenant. If you have ever tried to evict a tenant there is no such thing as self help and the legal process is neither cheap nor easy. Every commercial landlord has this lost rent cost built in. Unless, of course, you were suckered into buying a POS less than C-level building on the fringes of downtown Summit in 2019 with a projected 1.5% cap rate after YOU make the needed improvements and you assumed what the he11 I’ll make bankroll on capital gains…yeah, then you are all jammed up and need that rent as structured. But if you’re in that situation it just puts the tenant in even a stronger position to tell you to p1ss off. The most important decision being made in daily commercial transactions around these events is who is the price maker, and who is the price taker. If you don’t know, or worse, if you don’t even know you ought to be asking that question well then you’re beyond help. It’s the old adage about sitting down at the poker table and not knowing who the mark is….

    Anyway, regarding a potential landlord-tenant dispute in the covid environment if you can actually find a court open to take your application and process it in a timely fashion (good luck) and then you decide to drop all the lawyer fees and time to actually get your tenant evicted…who the fcuk is going to take your tenant’s place? Seriously. Every other potential tenant is in exactly the same boat, trying to stay afloat and looking to shed sh1tty leases.

    I went long CAKE, PLNT and others hard near the bottom through a set of options and some stock. In 30+ years of trading/investing they were literally some of my best trades ever. Why? The thesis. They have a solid balance sheet so which landlord in his right mind is going to toss them when CAKE tells him to pound sand? All retailers/restaurants are in the same boat. What is Simon Properties going to do, toss an A level tenant with the ability but not the desire to pay for a D level tenant who can’t pay? Who’s taking CAKE’s space at the SHM? Applebys? Right, lol. He’s got much bigger problems, look at the credit ratings of some of his anchor tenants like functionally bankrupt companies who can’t pay such as Macy’s etc. CAKE not paying rent and looking for some concession is the least of his problems.

    Big picture collectively as a society we’ve written a check for $4.5T. Three parties are going to pay for it. Future taxpayers, which is OK because basically a good portion of the money is going to current taxpayers. So that’s just a transfer from the left pocket to the right pocket, generationally speaking. And who are the other people underwriting the trillions? Banks and landlords. because sh1t flows downhill.

    Holistic view to make money? Nobody in 4000 years of human history has ever said “oh, the poor landlords and bankers, let’s make sure they are OK”. Never, ever have those words been uttered. Ever. He11, bankers are so despised nearly a quarter of the earth’s population subscribes to a rel1gion to that considers the basis of the bank a s1n, lending money for interest. Anyway…

    BAC went to 25.32 today. Are you fcuking kidding me. Let’s leave the anomoly of Dec 2018 aside for a comparison because it’s too easy. Other than that price point BAC was last at that level in Oct 2017. Compare any macro/micro stat you want, pick two dozen, between late 2017 and now. When you lay those stats side by side the difference is stunning. Compare the environment then for BAC (or other US commercial bank, it just so happens BAC is what I trade). GDP growth/outlook. Unemployment. Potential writeoffs. Rates. There is literally no measure now that comes close to late 2017. Yet BAC is trading like we are in an all time low unemployment, 3+ percent GDP growth forever economy. Why in the world should BAC be partying like it’s 2017?

    Today I was a meaningful amount of total volume in several strikes for BAC puts. Intelligently, defined risk, buy and write, but very aggressively. Last time I went this hard at something was AIG a decade or so ago. BAC earnings are this week. My “low before we get out of this mess” target for BAC is low teens, 15-16. Not this week, but eventually. And, full disclosure, we will certainly get maybe a 10% pop or better near term from an FDA ‘endorsed’ (not necessarily cl1nically approved) therapeutic in the next two weeks. That complicates wildly any short position. So there is a lot of vol, and upside risk, so be smart. But, we are on a critical point in the markets right now. Absent the Tx pop, where you going with this market? Long? Want a short? Banks and landlords. Fcuked.

    Hope for my brokerage statement it works out. Of course, this is not advice. I’m just some internet dude here after two zoom happy hours typing in a pool in chest deep water looking at the hair floating straight out around my n1pples and thinking that when those sh1tty str1p malls re-open I may need to try my first waxing. So YMMV. But, I promise this, if BAC runs to 16 in the next two to four weeks you guys likely won’t hear from me again. Ha.

    Everyone have fun and be safe. Sh1t happens. Understand which events you can control and let the others go, it’s the only path to sanity and peace. And let’s see those fcuking bank stocks take that roller coaster down.

  90. Juice Box says:

    Fabius – love your Donnie thang and Biden is really on the money with stuff that happened 35 years ago but ask about stuff the happened just a short few years ago?Well short term memory loss is well”progressive”. We don’t see the Sunday morning talk show fire or anything even close to smoldering. Does that mean trotting our Golden Chicago girl again to run point?I doubt his hope and change or spouse is getting off the couch for this one.

  91. Juice Box says:

    Grim really sewage? OK….. I was thinking wading into data, team for sewage means wading into the stuff, to do that means access. How about I get you exclusive access to a county somewhere nearby with 800k population ? I might know somebody and it ain’t Tony….

  92. JuiceBox says:

    As if I know the science too, I am a happy cobblre just hoping my cough does not end me.

  93. Fabius Maximus says:

    Juice,

    Here is the reality laid out for the Bernie Supporters.
    https://twitter.com/deannagmcdonald/status/1248116846991233024

    The same is for the Chi’s of the world. I used to vote Dem, but!
    Now its a real Sh1t Sandwich! Its Joe or Trump, Your call! You explained your sit out or 3rd party vote in 2016, but you see what that got.

    If you didn’t vote Hill in 2016, you own Trump. If you don’t vote Joe or sit out and Trump wins, you own the Donnie win.

  94. Fabius Maximus says:

    D-Fens, I think your 45 decision is a mistake, but if that’s what you want, and you have rented it and are happy with it, then go for it.

    Make sure you get trained, and make sure that your kids watch the safety videos.

  95. joyce says:

    If they lose, does the democratic party as a whole (everyone, candidates, insider big wigs, primary voters, etc) have any responsibility? Do they ‘own’ any of it?

    In 2016, Ted Cruz came in second in the primary. Does this mean every republican who didn’t like Trump should have lined up behind Cruz? They shouldn’t have voted for John Kasich; they should have voted for Ted Cruz, right?

    April 9, 2020 at 9:26 pm
    Juice,

    Here is the reality laid out for the Bernie Supporters.
    https://twitter.com/deannagmcdonald/status/1248116846991233024

    The same is for the Chi’s of the world. I used to vote Dem, but!
    Now its a real Sh1t Sandwich! Its Joe or Trump, Your call! You explained your sit out or 3rd party vote in 2016, but you see what that got.

    If you didn’t vote Hill in 2016, you own Trump. If you don’t vote Joe or sit out and Trump wins, you own the Donnie win.

  96. Fabius Maximus says:

    I was on the end of week “hows everyone doing call” Younger guy asks, “you older folks, you were around for 9/11, how does this compare.”

    I wasn’t ready for the question and it did bring up a few memories. Must be my liberal outlook and my Trigger Waring Necessity!

    The big difference is that 9/11 was like a parent dying of a heart attack, short, sharp and incredibly painful. This is like a parent dying of cancer. Long drawn out, still the same amount of pain, but you have the chance to maneuver around it and spend some quality time preparing for the inevitable.

    Don’t want to drag up 9/11, but my story is like a JJ’s. After many days of all work no sleep, my boss intervened and told me to check out and take some enforced down time. Things were under control, but I was burnt out. I drove to AC. From that pointsit’s a blur, but I remember a few things from that trip, outside of the fact I got really really drunk!
    First was that Big spinning wheel where you can lay 20-1. I can remember I discovered a system, i just cant remember it. I ended up waking up the next morning with 5 figures worth of chips. I recall playing roulette at some point as well. I went for a walk and ended up on a bar on the boardwalk and girls dancing on a bar, but that’s another story.

  97. No One says:

    Bernie is just laying low in isolation hoping the virus gets to Slow Joe before August. Maybe even sending some virused-up Bernie Bros to go cough on him.
    It would be tough for the dems to just skip him, the still-living runner up.

  98. Fabius Maximus says:

    It is Donnie’s issue. Greatness Gary!

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/americans-are-paying-the-price-for-trumps-failures/609532/

    I don’t take responsibility at all,” said President Donald Trump in the Rose Garden on March 13. Those words will probably end up as the epitaph of his presidency, the single sentence that sums it all up.

    Trump now fancies himself a “wartime president.” How is his war going? By the end of March, the coronavirus had killed more Americans than the 9/11 attacks. By the first weekend in April, the virus had killed more Americans than any single battle of the Civil War. By Easter, it may have killed more Americans than the Korean War. On the present trajectory, it will kill, by late April, more Americans than Vietnam. Having earlier promised that casualties could be held near zero, Trump now claims he will have done a “very good job” if the toll is held below 200,000 dead.

  99. joyce says:

    1) You came nowhere near answering any of my questions.
    2) I picked Kasich on purpose because of your previous comments regarding him.
    3) I have no idea what you’re trying to reference by linking your previous comment.
    3a) A lot of erroneous predictions you made.

  100. chicagofinance says:

    Fab: NJ was called for Clinton at 8:01PM in 2016. I was travelling, but I did vote for Clinton in a mail-in ballot. Who cares? I only voted for Clinton so I can answer people the way that I am answering you now.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    April 9, 2020 at 9:26 pm
    Juice,

    Here is the reality laid out for the Bernie Supporters.
    https://twitter.com/deannagmcdonald/status/1248116846991233024

    The same is for the Chi’s of the world. I used to vote Dem, but!
    Now its a real Sh1t Sandwich! Its Joe or Trump, Your call! You explained your sit out or 3rd party vote in 2016, but you see what that got.

    If you didn’t vote Hill in 2016, you own Trump. If you don’t vote Joe or sit out and Trump wins, you own the Donnie win.

  101. Fabius Maximus says:
  102. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Trump had the Republicans by the balls. The Republicans were planning on trying to screw Trump out of the nomination but he quickly put them into their place. Their first question to each candidate was would they pledge to not run as a 3rd party candidate. Obviously, directed at no one but Trump. He immediately fired back and said no….why would I give up that leverage? What if the RNC doesn’t play fair?

    He forced their hand.

  103. chicagofinance says:

    Wells is in the penalty box because of bad behavior (recall CEO & other high profile execs fired). Bad coincidence that it cut them off now….. really hurts customers more than anyone else, and they were the ones originally wronged .

    Juice Box says:
    April 9, 2020 at 11:19 am
    Wells Fargo had only $10 billion available below their asset cap of 1.95 trillion for the new SBA loan program and they have 170,000 applications already.

    They have been barred from growing its assets above $1.95 trillion for more than two years, they are now crying uncle and need their lending cap raised, the Fed has obliged.

    What other TBTF bank has the same lending cap predicament?

  104. chicagofinance says:

    FYI – market is closed tomorrow….

    BoomerRemover says:
    April 9, 2020 at 2:56 pm
    The market is so crazy that I just can’t pull the trigger on SPXU short term at the moment. I mean nothing is certain, but it’s wild out there. I can’t help to think we’ll open up +3-5% tomorrow.

  105. chicagofinance says:

    FYI – Given the unconscionable bazooka that the government blasted at the market, it should have been up at least 6-8%……… the idea that the 2,800 level held speaks volumes to how much selling pressure there is. Everything is a joke right now, especially BB+/BBB- paper…… however, to bastardize an old cliche……. DON’T FIGHT THE FED.

    As an aside, if the market moves meaningfully up from here, the short-squeeze will be the buttfcuking of the century…..

    If you have any clue what will happen on Monday, then you will be exceeding rich.

  106. chicagofinance says:

    Wasn’t that the argument rationalizing the potential effectiveness of the Trump Administration circa December 2016?

    homeboken says:
    April 9, 2020 at 11:01 am
    The whole D primary process is confusing to me. I still can’t fathom a world where the DNC keeps Biden at the top of the ticket. They are already in the press telling me about the dream-team cabinet he will pick, and how great his VP choice will be. What kind of way is that to try and win an election?

    It’s like saying “We know our CEOis really weak, but look at all this awesome support staff!”

  107. Fabius Maximus says:

    Chi,

    You you actually voted for Hill after all the pontificating so you could lie to you clients?

    Wow.

  108. chicagofinance says:

    Huh? No you drip…… I don’t discuss politics with clients…. you are a cynical bastard….

    Fabius Maximus says:
    April 9, 2020 at 11:17 pm
    Chi,

    You you actually voted for Hill after all the pontificating so you could lie to you clients?

    Wow.

  109. Fabius Maximus says:

    2) I picked Kasich on purpose because of your previous comments regarding him.

    Hell no you didn’t, go roll tape to back that up.

  110. Fabius Maximus says:

    ” I don’t discuss politics with clients…”

    “so I can answer people the way that I am answering you now.Just like you ”

    Which Way? You cant have both?

  111. joyce says:

    Chicago is right. Maybe not about the Nazism, I don’t know. You’re insufferable… it has to be intentional or ignorance. I think it’s the latter.

    What is wrong with you? What are you talking about?

    I asked you a few questions. You respond nonsensically. What else is knew?

    In my question from 9:56pm today, I inserted Kasich in my question because of the somewhat supportive comments (with respect to the Republican primary) you made about him in the past. Cruz finished solidly in 2nd place so he would have been the obvious repub choice to rally around collectively to beat Trump. So I asked YOU in particular a hypothetical question… accordingly to your logic, they all should have supported Cruz over the other repub’s, including Kasich, to beat Trump, right?

    If you don’t understand, you can’t be helped.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    April 9, 2020 at 11:22 pm
    2) I picked Kasich on purpose because of your previous comments regarding him.

    Hell no you didn’t, go roll tape to back that up.

  112. JCer says:

    Fabius you really are insufferable, you think it’s relevant which sh*t sandwich you voted for in the 2016 election. You pontificate about failures and deaths during a pandemic that no president was going to stop. In fact your guy was saying we shouldn’t have blocked travel from China. You keep posting these ridiculous articles about Hydroxycholorquine, BRT is absolutely right and just a reminder this was being used against malaria when the honeymooners was on tv. It is a drug and should only be administered by a medical professional who is aware of potential side effects and monitors for the serious ones.

    To Chifi’s point only an idiot discusses politics with their financial advisors it’s not an appropriate topic. The only discussion around politics is usually as it relates to markets and tax consequences. No normal person brings politics into a professional situation it’s inappropriate.

    Trump is a buffoon but at least he brought the China hawks in, you don’t realize it but your side is much friendlier with regime that has more in common with Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan. How many people has the party in china disappeared? Yet your party says we should keep them as trusted business partners.

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