From CNBC:
This could be the worst market for a first-time homebuyer, experts say
Buying a first home is always a huge decision. It’s even bigger when the market has been as hot as it has in the last two years.
Financial advisors say this could be the worst market for home buyers we’ve ever seen, and caution clients to perhaps wait.
Certified financial planner Rick Kahler, founder of Kahler Financial Group in Rapid City, South Dakota, expected the coronavirus pandemic might cool down a real estate market that had been rising for the last decade.
“I told a client 18 months ago not to buy a home, but he did,” said Kahler, who lives in Rapid City. “I was dead wrong, of course.”
Not only has the pandemic failed to cool the hot housing market, it has kicked it into higher gear. At the end of September, the average home price in the U.S. was $377,000, according to real estate broker Redfin. That’s up 14% from the same month last year and a staggering 30% from September 2019, when the average selling price for a home was $291,000.
…
Current homeowners are in the catbird seat. If they “overpay” for a new home, they can make up for it by selling their old one. For first-time homebuyers, however, it’s a different story.
“This could be the worst market for a first-time homebuyer that I’ve ever seen,” said CFP Sheryl Garrett. “Don’t be in such a hurry to buy a house.”
Garrett, founder of the Garrett Planning Network, suggests that some people are driven to own a home for the wrong reasons.
Frist
Second!
Rt 78 Dump Truck accident yesterday? Seems it was blown tire, driver died..
https://www.nj.com/union/2021/10/police-id-dump-truck-driver-killed-in-i-78-crash.html
Maybe those first time homebuyers will use crypto or tech stock proceeds to pay for their new home. It’s not as if the only appreciating assets out there have been houses.
The people who are getting screwed are the ones who were trying to save part of their salaries and put it into a bank account earning no interest. The Federal Reserve and other central banks are against that kind of risk averse earning and saving approach. Instead they want everyone to speculate on risky assets to even have a chance of breaking even after inflation.
Sheryl is giving bad information with her don’t be in a hurry to buy a house; people should be buying two or more. Hurry, hurry!!
The greens are going to destroy the sem*iconductor business here.
Global Found*ries filed for IPO. They are the largest private employer in Vermont and the locals want them to cut C*O2 emis*sions. That state does not produce enough green energy, and it a long way off from becoming 100% rene*wable as Vermont consu*mes more than three times as much energy as it produce, so they have to import it from the who*lesale grid.
Some background..
https://tinyurl.com/3rtew9yd
Year over Year increase for my manse…..18% — nothing to see here.
I had the weirdest dream last night. Must have been the combo of listening to George Carlin and eating a fast food dinner. I was hanging out with Libturd, Phoenix, and Pumps in a restaurant. And me and Phoenix tricked Pumps into licking his own armpit. We were paraphrasing Carlin and saying if people could lick themselves we’d still be living in caves. I said now we can barely lick our own shoulders and its impossible to lick our own armpit. Me and Phoenix pretended to try and could only lick our own shoulders. We then challenged Pumps to do better than that. He took on the challenge and proudly licked his own armpit. I laughed so hard I woke myself up.
Weird, hold. How do you even picture Blumpy? I think of this
https://media.istockphoto.com/photos/happy-nerd-picture-id508234381
Hold/ Bystander: You two are in trouble when he gets back!!
81 year old Grandfather in Elwood Park axed to death by his 21 year old Grandson.
3b and bystander
Have no idea what any of them look like either. I know libturd is bald. But everytthing else is blank. Like talking shadows. Was weird.
Two things I learned today. Don’t be a first time home buyer and Libturd looks like Captain Jean-Luc Picard.
https://www.nj.com/news/2021/10/plan-to-build-a-convention-center-at-meadowlands-in-the-works.html
I see the words “public’, ‘incentivize’ and ‘induce’ too much in this article. More titans of crony capitalism coming to the trough.
They really should rename the entire Meadowlands Croneyville or something. The track, the stadiums, arenas, mall, Secaucus Transfer, the Environmental Center. That 5 mile radius is all 100% subsidized with NJ tax dollars and it’s all completely unnecessary. About the only thing not subsidized was the Lombardi rest area blow jobs.
American Dream is an absolutely terrible location for a large scale conference facility.
Terrible proximity to everything.
No mass transit options.
Not nearly enough local hotel capacity to support it, certainly not in a way that’s even remotely walkable, or in a location someone would want to spend a few days.
Not big enough to actually compete for the major conferences (CES, etc).
Juice, I wonder. That’s right where it bunches up because of the closed exist prior to. Either way, we are used to an overturned trailer once every 8 weeks at most. We have 1 a day on 78 right now.
Grim
They will have have a need to spend billions to build a rail link to it,
Grim: They will build it anyway.
They will have have a need to spend billions to build a rail link to it
Shitty way to get thousands of people to and from a conference, given that everyone wants to arrive for the start, and leave when it’s done – meaning moving a massive amount of people in a short window.
How many football game attendees are using the current rail infrastructure? Last I heard it was less than 10%.
American Dream would be the perfect size and location for a NAMBLA conference.
Miss out the first time she was on the market? She’s back already.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/24-Stephen-St-Montclair-NJ-07042/38689048_zpid/
Grim – I interviewed at American Nightmare a few months before COVID hit and got to see their long term vision for conference center, hotels, etc. Never gonna happen. At least not successfully.
Never gonna happen. At least not successfully.
Oh, it will definitely happen. Another 17 year boondoggle will definitely happen.
That DNA buy from last week is going off. Bought with blood in the streets, and got lucky. Believe in it long term, did not expect such a quick rebound off the short attack.
Also made some money on the bitcoin run in the past 2 weeks. Still holding, expect it to pass up 64k sometime soon. This guy I follow absolutely owns the bitcoin charts.
ARK G is starting to move, it is an absolute steal at current pricing if you are playing it long term.
Ahh… I can smell the Chesterfields and Rheingold from here!!
Or, is it now Marlboros and Busch Light? This is a fat Mary special for sure:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/635-Russell-Snow-Dr-River-Vale-NJ-07675/38018612_zpid/?mmlb=g,0
Open up 4 casino licenses on or adjacent to the complex.
Let the private sector build the conference space as part of the development plans.
Only way it works, is to turn it into mini Vegas. No public bonding, certainly no handouts. Casino Hotel is going to be the only thing anyone is going to want to build that doesn’t come in asking for a huge tax abatement.
750K is the new 599K. G0d, I’d be in jail for murder for sure if I had to put on a gas mask for some of these Karen specials.
But right on cue, here you go… asking 720K for a standard split. At these prices, the riff raff is sure to be kept away… probably the only upside. Add 14.6K in taxes and it’s a sure death knell:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/140-Sibbald-Dr-Park-Ridge-NJ-07656/37998706_zpid/?
Was in a house in Park Ridge the other day.
Was picking something up I bought from FB Marketplace.
I’m sure they paid $600-700k, hell, maybe more.
Didn’t feel like a house, was barely furnished inside. Incredibly sparse, and I’m not talking about a nordic minimalist esthetic.
Two really expensive SUVs in the driveway though.
Allllll show.
Đổi Thẻ Cào Thành Tiền Mặt. LƯU Ý! – Quý khách gửi thẻ mệnh giá 100.000 đ mà mệnh giá thực là 50.000 đ thì quý khách sẽ nhận được số tiền là 50.000 đ x …
Đổi Thẻ Cào Thành Tiền Mặt – Nhanh Chóng, Uy Tín, chiết …https://doithenap.com
I think the strangest scene is when W. Saddle River Road runs into Sheridan Avenue at the Waldwick/Saddle River border. It’s like going from Oz to Kansas or vice versa depending on your cup of tea. You can literally walk from a horse farm with some cows on dozens of acres to rows of houses separated only by driveways. Ya gotta wonder how that all came to be.
Two really expensive SUVs in the driveway though.
Allllll show.
Big hat, no cattle.
Saddle River, 775K, 3 days on the market… what’s the catch?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/35-Old-Chimney-Rd-Saddle-River-NJ-07458/52912385_zpid/
Saddle River for 499K with a stream at the back of the property:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10-Old-Stone-Church-Rd-Saddle-River-NJ-07458/38046791_zpid/?
“Miss out the first time she was on the market? She’s back already.”
Did the buyer from a year ago finally regain his vision after a case of temporary blindness?
That 499 has got to be flood
It’s damn near impossible to get cardboard boxes made right now.
There is apparently no cardboard and everyone in the US is booked solid making up for overseas delays.
Managed to secure some glass recently (there is a huge glass shortage right now too), but no boxes to pack those bottles in.
Can’t get Mac hardware apparently, says the Premedia Manager who is overdue on his hardware replacement cycle.
That 499 has got to be flood
Possible… thought the same.
Unless the stream is in a canyon, it likely flooded back in that August storm.
Bitcoin new all time high.
Don’t be a buffet and miss this ride.
My target was 64…but im going to hold for some more. Run looks strong.
The Old Chimney Rd house is USR, not Saddle River
Old Stone Church is flood zone. Saddle River is a black hole. No appreciation in decades. These folks paid $430,000 back in 2013. House is 94 DOM and has already had a deal fall apart. Should be ready for a price reduction.
re: “Saddle River is a black hole”
I remember reading about Rosie’s parting gift.
https://jerseydigs.com/rosie-odonnell-finally-sells-saddle-river-mansion-will-be-demolished/
why the fcuk am i paying for Prime if I can’t get sh1t overnight?
understood delays during covid, but two day delivery on wireless headphones?
New normal. Technology gave the small guy plenty of information and the platforms to share it. Changed the game. Wall st days of easy pickings off the small guy are gone. Go ahead, try and shake that tree big guy, they will buy the sh!t out of the dip like piranhas.
“Loving it. This is the new normal. For both $TSLA AND #btc the small guys ie us retail got to front run all institutions!!!”
Pumps
Bitcoin new all time high.
Just ride it until it hits $100,000.00. Don’t quit your day job because you are going to need that pension. Pigs get slaughtered , teachers just get pensions.
Jim,
People (esp 20/30 somethings) have made a sh!tload of money the past 10 years. Say what you will, but they are killing it. Old guys been chasing value past 10 years and still at it. Missed out on tremendous opportunities because they were applying the rules of the old market to the new market.
2010-2020 era— pfff, tesla?!! Do you see the price to earnings? What a joke. Easy short.
Got their a$$ handed to them.
Dude, don’t feed the troll….he’s ignorant as hell in the area in which he is supposed to teach and even less knowledgeable in financial matters if that’s possible.
He top-ticked the buy on ARKK in Feb and rode it down 30+%. I’ll let the poor dumb fcuk have a little flex with long duration stocks rebounding. Blind squirrel, broken clock, etc. It’s his MO…make a ten year ‘call’ and then insufferably post garbage every day of the next 3,650 when something moves (or someone predicts it may move) in his direction…
He’s still underwater. And an imbecile. The former will eventually change. The latter, never.
Lefty,
Suck it. Are you perfect? How’s that f’ing arkk short going, huh? I told you that you are playing with fire because arkk can go up just as fast as it goes down. It’s a highly volatile ETF in the short term, but absolute beast in the long term. The ark funds behave exactly like Tesla and Bitcoin. Up and down short term, but long term get the f’k out of the way.
I’m not an idiot, so don’t treat me like one.
Jim, i was only going to ride it to 64k, but think im riding till 100k. 100k is def a huge resistance pt. We will see what happens.
All sorts of high beta rate sensitive stocks flying. Ark (the last 8 month laggard) might finally be going on a run. We will see. Def the feel of a meltup is upon us.
Bitcoin 98k by November and blows out in December to 135k. Then pulls back?
ARK’s Cathie Wood: Deflation’s a bigger threat than inflation; here’s how she’s playing it
ARK Invest chief Cathie Wood reiterated her views on Tuesday that deflation rather than inflation is the biggest market threat, and that innovation companies like EV and fintech firms represent the best deflation hedge.
https://apple.news/A1fc9RiY1ShO6ycYp6s5l8g
“How’s that f’ing arkk short going, huh? I told you that you are playing with fire because arkk can go up just as fast as it goes down. I’m not an idiot, so don’t treat me like one.”
Posted here already that I took profits and then re-wrote the 2x writes further down. I’m up about 70% realized so far and now have the remainder of the trade on where it is literally impossible to lose money unless the stock goes below 90 and make a bunch – multiples – if she settles between 105 and 115 in the next few weeks.
So ARKK is going extremely well, idiot.
Pumps; Just a reminder your girl Cathy is moving her firm to Florida due to high NYC cost of living and doing business. I would say she is contributing to her deflation call.
I just bought $1000 in Bitcoin and made $150! Suck it! I’m now going to take my proceeds and go to the food store where inflation is transitory. Have fun staying poor!
Lefty,
Nice job. You seem to be doing a good job.
3b,
She is 66 and has a small firm. Do the math on why she moved there.
Inverse,
Money is being made, go get it.
You’d be nuts to live/work in NYC given the choice.
It’s a cold, dirty, overly expensive place to live.
K-12 kids? Try getting into decent schools in NYC.
Pumps: You are ignoring her comment on NYC and other expensive cities, her moving her firm is besides the point. It’s what she said. Cathy is your girl, she said it.
Ex: And all the cool interesting neighborhoods are mostly gone, but the crime is back!!
She didn’t say NYC was dying. She was simply implying about what always happens with the market: spillover. Market in search of any type of value arbitrage. It’s a cycle. Understand it, or dont.
In terms of capital market instruments, if you asked Pumps what is his favorite spread, he’d say “Skippy”.
leftwing says:
October 19, 2021 at 7:57 pm
“How’s that f’ing arkk short going, huh? I told you that you are playing with fire because arkk can go up just as fast as it goes down. I’m not an idiot, so don’t treat me like one.”
Posted here already that I took profits and then re-wrote the 2x writes further down. I’m up about 70% realized so far and now have the remainder of the trade on where it is literally impossible to lose money unless the stock goes below 90 and make a bunch – multiples – if she settles between 105 and 115 in the next few weeks.
So ARKK is going extremely well, idiot.
Pumps:She said nothing about market spillover, go back and read her article. She’s your Girl. I do seem to remember you saying when it was first posted here that it was a bold call on her part, and you didn’t agree with it. She’s your Girl, you should give her a call and talk about it with her.
Beyond the Universe
Tech-company executives foresee the creation of a virtual metaverse—a vast digital world powered by AI where users represented by personal avatars work, shop, attend classes, pursue hobbies, go to parties and more—with replicas of places in the real world rendered in realistic-looking 3-D, the WSJ’s Sarah Needleman reports. Here’s what they’re saying:
Marc Whitten, senior vice president at Unity Software Inc.: “The metaverse is going to be the biggest revolution in computing platforms the world has seen—bigger than the mobile revolution, bigger than the web revolution.”
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook: “In addition to being the next generation of the internet, the metaverse is also going to be the next chapter for us as a company.”
Daren Tsui, CEO of Together Labs Inc.: “The avatar experience will feel so real that you can hardly tell the difference between a virtual meeting and a physical meeting. And the virtual experience will be better.”
John Egan, CEO of L’Atelier BNP Paribas:“The potential is unending.”
Congrats on your first gain since the start of the year Pumps
Predictit betting odds on NJ gov race has the following odds:
-If you bet $0.96 on Murphy and he wins the election, you win $1.00
-if you bet $0.04 on Ciaterelli and he wins the election, you win $1.00
14 days to go . . .
8:48 don’t get me wrong I love the City, just stop pretending it’s an easy or even good life there. You gotta be pulling in a mil a year to make it there.
Bragging rights to Jerry favorite amp.
I learned he was into solid state recently.
Holy Mac’ keral:
https://www.whathifi.com/news/jerry-garcias-budman-mcintosh-mc2300-amp-just-sold-for-dollar378000-at-sothebys
r:”virtual metaverse”
Some people do make six-figure monthly incomes from playing videogames…
Monthly folks..
I was a top ranked player in Castlevania. To bad it was never online.
“-If you bet $0.96 on Murphy and he wins the election, you win $1.00
-if you bet $0.04 on Ciaterelli and he wins the election, you win $1.00”
Yeah, it’s NJ. And yeah, it’s hard to compete with Murphy’s Wall Street treasure trove. But, the real reason for the gap is the rejection of populist politics.
Broken record, I am. I know.
“People (esp 20/30 somethings) have made a sh!tload of money the past 10 years. Say what you will, but they are killing it. Old guys been chasing value past 10 years and still at it. Missed out on tremendous opportunities because they were applying the rules of the old market to the new market.”
When exactly did I hear this before?
Why we go out of our way to help a trolling, lying, financial advisor is beyond me. Maybe it’s because we know you are a teacher?
Pumps, READ THIS:
https://intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/03/05/dont-learn-the-wrong-lessons-from-the-dot-com-crash/
But, the real reason for the gap is the rejection of populist politics.
As opposed to government controlling everything? I’m hoping the intensity gets turned up to a 10! I’m hoping there’s a near revolt due to the s0c1al1st flames creeping closer to the American way of life every day. It’s becoming a “Fahrenheit 451” moment on every facet of our lives and like rab1d dogs, the leftist movement needs to be put down.
Just got news from neighborhood Karen the anti-vaxxer, well her husband is now in hospital with Covid. Blood clots….no vent…Hopefully they throw the kitchen sink at him..
Two young kids too and he is sole breadwinner….hope the kitchen sink treatments work.
All over a $30 dollar shot, probably going to be one of the long haulers with lots of health issues now.
The issues that are driving I populism nationally, vaccine mandates, open borders, etc aren’t top issues in nj.
The biggest issues in the debate were the school funding formula and shrinking the state budget which are related.
With +1M Democrats and 1M public union workers is almost impossible to overcome that advantage. It has nothing to do with populism. In fact Murphy is far more populist.
Lib, I understand your position on this. At the same time, you have to realize you are losing money by not investing in these run ups over the past 10 years. You could have sold tesla and bitcoin already if you bought early and ignored all the naysayers complaining about these assets. No matter what you bought, you would more than likely be retired off it. This is the reality right now. Even if it busts, these people have already made their money and sold.
That’s the thing with value investors. They don’t hit it big unless there is a huge bust in the market. Value investors didn’t do much over the past 10 years in an economy that is being transformed by new technologies. There were loads of opportunities to make money in growth stocks, but value investors ignored it…totally missing out. Value investors will have their day, but I don’t think anytime soon. Technology is moving too fast, and it’s making a lot of value stocks a trap as they have their profits eaten by new disruptive growth stocks.
Libturd says:
October 20, 2021 at 8:34 am
“People (esp 20/30 somethings) have made a sh!tload of money the past 10 years. Say what you will, but they are killing it. Old guys been chasing value past 10 years and still at it. Missed out on tremendous opportunities because they were applying the rules of the old market to the new market.”
When exactly did I hear this before?
Why we go out of our way to help a trolling, lying, financial advisor is beyond me. Maybe it’s because we know you are a teacher?
Pumps, READ THIS:
https://intrinsicinvesting.com/2021/03/05/dont-learn-the-wrong-lessons-from-the-dot-com-crash/
Every party needs a slogan. Every party needs a bogeyman. They shifted from white nationalists to populist I guess.
The Russia stuff food I guess now that Biden cozied up to Putin. The price of gas through the roof strengthens vlads hand tremendously.
In fact the Russia narrative has pretty much disappeared. I guess it’s usefulness has expired.
New York City’s housing market is undergoing a powerful rebound, fueled by New Yorkers trading up, out-of-staters moving in, and others looking beyond the pandemic’s aftershocks to make a long-term bet on the city.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-housing-demand-surges-after-pandemic-slowdown-11634644800?st=s40vfuzefhnpi41&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Eddie,
You are ready to burn it all down? Was it that different when Republicans have been in charge? Think you need to return to reality. Everything is almost exactly the same no matter which party is in charge. The only thing that changes is the rhetoric.
Pumps almost there $64,938.10
Make sure to tell the Gym teacher about your coin play this afternoon in the lounge…
Housing not coming down anytime soon.
“U.S. new-home construction slowed in September as builders coped with rising costs for materials and labor. Privately owned housing starts fell to an annual pace of 1.56 million units in September from 1.58 million in August, the Commerce Department reported. Demand for homes has been especially strong since the pandemic hit. But the latest figures “provided further evidence that higher input costs, supply disruptions and shortages are weighing on activity,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.”
Juice,
It’s at 65,500 right now. It’s moving to 100k.
Nyc is dead. Sure.
Told people to buy when they were crying NYC is dead in 2020. Fast Eddie was the only one taking it seriously. 3b was too busy lecturing me for telling 30 year realtor that he was wrong about NYC and it was a buying opportunity.
“More than 4,500 Manhattan condo and co-op sales closed from July through September, according to a Douglas Elliman market report. That marked the most third-quarter sales in more than three decades, the firm said.
“Many of these people saw what happened after the [housing market] collapse in 2008,” said Donna Olshan, head of Olshan Realty Inc., a New York residential brokerage firm. “They saw that when New York goes on sale, it’s for a short period of time.””
Pumps, it’s not tech and disruption. It’s debt that is fueling this rally. Eventually, you need to pay back the debt. Value will rise again and sooner then you know. You will be wiped out and I will be drinking an Imperial lager. Bull markets only do what they do when there is an outside influence. In this case, it’s our governments willingness to put every negative event on the FED’s balance sheet. Eventually, you have to pay yield on our treasuries. What is that going to do to inflation? What is your currency worth when this occurs. Remember, you have to keep paying for those who can’t pay for themselves. The bottom and middle class is rapidly becoming one lower class. All the gains are at the top. Our government has decided to get a Brazilian. This is NOT going to be pretty. It’s only a matter of time.
Remember, there is always a period of ludicrous exuberance right before the wheel fall off the wagon. We are probably entering it right now. When it will end, I have no clue. Nor does anyone. But I am certain it will take out all long-term gains from now to the top and probably much of the Trump/Biden debt-injected market gains as well. High P/E tech stocks will be murdered yet again. Take some gains.
My crystal ball says right around tax time next year, we will suffer greatly.
Remember, during the tech bubble, it too was the young people who got rich overnight (including me) and then got slaughtered.
“In terms of capital market instruments, if you asked Pumps what is his favorite spread, he’d say “Skippy”.”
LOL. Chi, you’re a CFA/RIA, right?
Funny, I got into options trading the usual way (and the worst way possible)…long calls speculation. I’ll date myself – but it was a good lesson – first trade was when a corporate raider went after one of the original airlines back in the bad old days of Milken and hostile LBOs…missed it by a week, option went to zero (of course), but seeing where the next series moved to (in the back pages of the printed WSJ lol) was eye-opening.
Was in/out of that market over the years…As an IB it was impossible to trade, anything let alone options, but away from the bulge bracket firms as a principal or when overseas I was able to…GFC and AIG was crazy, another lesson…
Anyway, fast forward to bunch of fresh capital from disposing of some non-liquid assets through the divorce process…coincided in part with some toppiness in the market and absolutely unprecedented lows in volatility in late 2017…another lesson.
Went in 2018 educated, with a bunch of dry powder and started deploying with 1/6 of my portfolio to basically options (100:20 ratio in LT/trading accounts)….wrote off some extraordinary returns that year to beginners luck and that the year end volatility was an anomaly…2019 played the vol, did well, which gave me confidence (and the YTD returns) to go nearly all-cash into the Fall, felt the market was seriously overvalued…pulled out literally days before the Fed hopped into the repo market and the market ripped from 3000 to 3400, oops, lol…while that miss hurt, a little, for my investment portfolio it left me basically all-cash going into the first quarter of 2020….Of course that year was insane as I hopped back in LT and traded the vol…..2021 for me was the real test and it’s still working…
So, anyway, my trading portfolio has now overtaken my investment portfolio in size despite starting at 1/6 the value about four years ago….I hope I’ve found a niche and feel a lot more confident given the events I’ve traded through…..I mentioned a couple days ago I put on ME, Z, and have an open short in DIS…in DIS yesterday I did an ARKK type readjustment taking some profit and rewriting part of the position…took 1.3x profit off the table, obviously with the remainder it’s now impossible to lose money and my screen is showing me up 68% on the remaining half right now anyway…
Z was easy, won’t bore you with the thesis there but threw that on two days ago, screen showed me with 2.3x profit this morning, exited half, letting the rest go and again impossible to lose money there now (hell, my return is locked at a minimum 130% even if the remainder goes to zero…). ME similar story, in on 10/14, since it was LT did shares with options, only up 25% there but on much larger exposure, should have stuck to options trades would have had another multiple times return with less risk….
Anyway, my goal is to demonstrate to myself that I can produce regular reproducible returns within risk/drawdown parameters acceptable to me….if I weren’t such a skeptic generally I would say I’m there but I really want to see how this inflation/rates issue resolves over the next 18 months to roll some of these recent returns out of trading and deploy into solid LT holds at acceptable entry points….
Sorry for the long post…one last comment worth repeating….
Leverage. Asymmetric. Defined Risk.
Oh, and for the CW fans probably the most important factor to consider in her, among the very many lol…..entry price matters.
THE MORNING CALL | DEC 14, 2020 AT 8:30 AM
My parents and grandparents often recounted the sacrifices they made during World War II. Gasoline, butter, sugar and canned milk were rationed because they needed to be diverted to the war effort. War disrupted trade, limiting the availability of some goods.
On Aug. 28, 1941, President Roosevelt created the Office of Price Administration. OPA’s main responsibility was to limit the prices of most goods and to limit consumption by rationing. Americans received their first ration cards in May 1942. OPA rationed automobiles, tires, gasoline, fuel oil, coal, firewood, nylon, silk and shoes.
Americans used ration cards and stamps to take their meager share of household staples including meat, dairy, coffee, dried fruits, jams, jellies, lard, shortening and oils. Americans learned, as they did during the Great Depression, to do without.
Sacrificing became the norm for most Americans, who knew it was for the common good. Americans purchased $185 billion in war bonds.
After 9/11, we also came together as a country, and we still have enhanced security at airports. I don’t hear many complaints.
Today, asked to undergo minimal inconveniences like wearing masks and social distancing, we hear many Americans whining like a bunch of selfish, entitled, spoiled snowflakes.
“entry price matters.”
Always does, and that’s the easy part. Exiting timing is much trickier, which is where I understand your options plays makes this much more simple (I think).
Lib,
I respect your knowledge and experience in the markets. Don’t mistaken my position as thinking I know more than you or anything along those lines. I appreciate the posts trying to help.
“In fact the Russia narrative has pretty much disappeared. ”
You must have missed the news yesterday. This raid came out of SDNY so I assume that Donnie would have clogged up the Gold Toilet in Trump Tower when he found out. This is where Muller and his Taxes meet.
https://twitter.com/WendySiegelman/status/1450479941024374786
FBI is at DC home of Oleg Deripaska
Lib,
Great piece. I remember my friend riding CMGI all the way down. Bought in on margin at every floor. Took him years to pay off.
Right now, you have to stay in the market. Momentum is trending upwards, and earning looks great. Also, the biggest gains in the market are always before the bust. Better off riding this till at least december at the minimum. If scared, just start selling mid to late december.
Entry price matters for sure. It’s pretty much everything.
Then again, if you really believe in a company long term. Entry point doesn’t matter. If you are holding for 20 years, it’s better to dollar cost avg into said position instead of trying to time the market. Again, this is for companies that you truly believe in long term. I think DNA might be one of these plays. Just dollar cost avg and call it a day. Doesn’t matter what the price is, just buy every month for the next 10 years, and you should make a sh!t load of money. If economy tanks, you might have to hold it for 20 years. Point is, this is going to be a leader in a new industry. It’s going to be very valuable to the economy in the future.
Great article Lib. Some gems…
“Blodget declared, “I expect my obituary will read, ‘Henry Blodget, he predicted Amazon would hit $400.’”
LOL, really ironic given where his career ended up.
“It took until 2014 before 1999 buyers of Amazon stock had generated 10% annual returns.”
Entry price matters. How about this one…if the link doesn’t come through at max timeline click that timeframe….still 27% below its price 20+ years ago…https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CSCO?p=CSCO&.tsrc=fin-srch
“So, the lesson of the Dot Com era is not that people came to have irrational beliefs about the future. In fact, investors in the late 1990s underestimated just how big of a deal the internet would prove to be. Rather the massive error that investors made was to incorrectly think that pretty much any company that was operating in internet related industries was a sure thing.”
And in the two quotes above lie the fallacy of CW….she is a portfolio theory, demonstrably price-insensitive buyer of individual companies in sectors that will certainly prosper.
None of which guarantees any results and as the history of other disruptive periods shows will more likely than not end in tears for her investors.
I’m sure you’ve for trump now. Bombshell, game changer, beginning of the end. Is that boss Hogg and Roscoe on the case? lol.
Pumps,
I am 70/30. Stock to stable. I always align my investments with my market sentiment. It has always served me well. As Jim eluded to, free trades (minus tax implications) is fantastic. By the end of the year, I’ll be 50/50 at best barring government coming to its senses. We’ll see what the New Year brings. I can retire right now. Not a problem. But I’ve never done as well as I have in the past three debt infused years. I’m good not making anything for a few years. Just worried about inflation a bit.
I disagree. This exactly why ark is not like the dot com bubble. They aren’t making bets on an entire industry. They are betting long term on trends as opposed to entire sectors. They are picking the most valuable pieces of this new disruptive tech. They are extremely good at picking the winners and not the losers. How many losers did cathie pick since 2014? I really don’t know any. Maybe you can enlighten me. She is a master at reading disruptive tech trends. She is only getting stronger, it’s wild to witness. She is absolutely in the zone.
“So, the lesson of the Dot Com era is not that people came to have irrational beliefs about the future. In fact, investors in the late 1990s underestimated just how big of a deal the internet would prove to be. Rather the massive error that investors made was to incorrectly think that pretty much any company that was operating in internet related industries was a sure thing.”
And in the two quotes above lie the fallacy of CW….she is a portfolio theory, demonstrably price-insensitive buyer of individual companies in sectors that will certainly prosper.
None of which guarantees any results and as the history of other disruptive periods shows will more likely than not end in tears for her investors.
Pumps: Your Girl Cathy says otherwise, you should give her a call.
“Point is, this is going to be a leader in a new industry. It’s going to be very valuable to the economy in the future.”
OK, idiot, you and I both know you have not cracked one of the company’s public filings, have never glanced at any of their investor materials, cannot right now without first doing a google search articulate exactly what the company does and what its products are, have absolutely zero idea of and could not care less about the competitive structure of the sector and the company’s place therein, and have not conducted one shred of diligence on valuation….
Other than that, you provide great investment advice!
You are a farce. A caricature.
Was it that different when Republicans have been in charge?
We have China testing hypersonic missiles, North Korea launching missiles from submarines, the southern border turning into a sieve, the prices of goods and services becoming uncoupled, a quagmire happening at the ports as shelves become bare, dead American soldiers during the Afghanistan fiasco and hundreds of Americans stranded, billions in military equipment seized by terr0r1sts, energy and gas prices rising as I type this, ever-changing edicts on handling the coronavirus and crowds of various sizes screaming. “F.uck Joe Biden.” All this in 10 months. Ask the question again if it was different with the Republicans in charge.
“All this in 10 months. Ask the question again if it was different with the Republicans in charge.”
But there are no mean tweets.
And we are ‘respected on the world stage’ again…LOLOLOLOL.
Not everyone agrees, but I believe this is the start of new industry to the likes of the internet in the early 90’s. The financials are going to look like sh!t because this is a new industry that is only beginning to form. Why do I need to crack the company’s filings on a company that is only beginning its journey? People did that with tesla. Blew it off because of financials in a company that was only beginning to disrupt an entire industry. Bad move. DNA might end up being the Tesla of the next decade.
leftwing says:
October 20, 2021 at 11:06 am
“Point is, this is going to be a leader in a new industry. It’s going to be very valuable to the economy in the future.”
OK, idiot, you and I both know you have not cracked one of the company’s public filings, have never glanced at any of their investor materials, cannot right now without first doing a google search articulate exactly what the company does and what its products are, have absolutely zero idea of and could not care less about the competitive structure of the sector and the company’s place therein, and have not conducted one shred of diligence on valuation….
also, the West Bank got worse.
I can say this. They kept screaming there were going to be meat shortages mid 2020 and Trump claimed his team got together, and took care of it, and it’s no longer a concern. Whether they fixed it or whether it was just fear mongering….whatever. But that whatever problems that were on the horizon in the supply chain went completely ignored. At the end of the day, we all know paying people more money than they are used to stay home has created artificial labor shortages everywhere….and this is what happens.
https://news.yahoo.com/does-nuclear-power-have-a-place-in-a-green-energy-future-170518028.html
Wait…people are discovering the truth…but likely still have disdain for the people that told them to truth (cough cough….Pumpkin….cough cough….). It’s more of a crime to be right early than wrong.
“Not everyone agrees, but I believe this is the start of new industry to the likes of the internet in the early 90’s….”
Last reply to your idiocy, dumbass…..
Your reply literally proves the point of Lib’s article….to the letter. LOL.
And O’Biden’s approval rating is in the 30-something percent range which means it’s lower than that because polls are heavily skewed left.
Have a look at NJ home prices. 2020: +15%. 2021 thru Oct: +20%.
Nobody here saw this. Why are the NJ home values shooting higher?
My answer is demand is bringing in homebuyers who can afford NJ homes with ease.
The left is already in the process of constraining and controlling the supply line and now are dropping hints that they’re going to take a look at your bank account. Hmmm…
I used this comparison to show that not many people understood the internet in its infancy. Same applies to DNA. Most people do not have the slightest comprehension of what DNA is and where they are going. Blow it off if you want, but this has major upside potential.
leftwing says:
October 20, 2021 at 11:30 am
“Not everyone agrees, but I believe this is the start of new industry to the likes of the internet in the early 90’s….”
Last reply to your idiocy, dumbass…..
Your reply literally proves the point of Lib’s article….to the letter. LOL.
I have been saying it.
And lefty, remember from a few months ago when I said NJ home prices will be higher next year….you better not say it was inevitable when it happens. You better not say it was an easy call.
Yo! says:
October 20, 2021 at 11:43 am
Have a look at NJ home prices. 2020: +15%. 2021 thru Oct: +20%.
Nobody here saw this. Why are the NJ home values shooting higher?
My answer is demand is bringing in homebuyers who can afford NJ homes with ease.
I know what DNA is because I have extensive knowledge in Biology.
Ginkgo recently went public in a SPAC acquisition that valued it at more than $15 billion. Its backers include Bill Gates’s Cascade Investment and Cathy Wood’s ARK Investment Management.
“I believe, over the next decade, it will grow to become the new Amgen (AMGN) or Biogen (BIIB) ,” Collins wrote. “Ginkgo programs cells. ‘Biology by design’ as they call it. Recently, management increased its expectations of new programs from 23 to 30 as early cell programming success has led to greater demand. This allowed the company to increase total revenue expectations from $150 million to at least $175 million for the full year 2021.”
But wait, there’s more. “The company is at the forefront of applying advanced technology to biological applications. In addition to cell programming, Ginkgo has seen growing demand for biosecurity, a huge new market brought on by COVID-19. This takes the company beyond foundry and diagnostics.”
Nice job!
Libturd says:
October 20, 2021 at 11:01 am
Pumps,
I am 70/30. Stock to stable. I always align my investments with my market sentiment. It has always served me well. As Jim eluded to, free trades (minus tax implications) is fantastic. By the end of the year, I’ll be 50/50 at best barring government coming to its senses. We’ll see what the New Year brings. I can retire right now. Not a problem. But I’ve never done as well as I have in the past three debt infused years. I’m good not making anything for a few years. Just worried about inflation a bit.
I still remember when 60 minutes profiled Xyleco and you proclaimed that some dude who didn’t graduate high school was going to change their world. 2 of their board members were also on Theranos….turned out to be another scam
“Most people do not have the slightest comprehension of what DNA is and where they are going. Blow it off if you want, but this has major upside potential.”
Stupid fcuk….I actually invested in this as units…..posted in here, searchable, I said my only trepidation on holding it through DNA was that CW was also IN, which having her participation scared not encouraged me.
As I’ve already said on here I put the shares back to the company in the redemption at $10 [doing my part to reduce float]….then pre-merger substituted for that stock a bunch of 9/10C spreads at 32 and sold them at 78 the next day, rolled those profits into 11/12.50C spreads at 22 and sold them within the next couple days at an average price of 101. Oh, and I still have the warrants that were attached to the shares and are sitting in my account and will continue to do so…you could hold the DNA shares to infinity and not replicate that IRR.
Ranks as one of my best trades, ever….right up there with the TSLA 420 short, TSLA long Elon SEC settlement, and BMY/CELG merger….
And I actually know the company well and the space better, having banked it for a decade or better.
So, pardon me if I don’t take your call of ‘major upside potential’ with any level of seriousness whatsoever. You are self admittedly throwing darts at a board blindfolded.
How many other people with painted faces, orange hair, and floppy shoes hopped out of the car with you this morning?
Left: I have a Chicago MBA, which is kind of more rigorous than a CFA, but I am biased.
My war stories. Lost $40,000 on Enron through buying calls. Whacked out of a dotcom 1.0 company. Watched colleagues lose stuff in front of me such as a guy buying a house and held his down payment in Arriba stock for safekeeping. Got caught up with Tyco and Kozloski. Also when I was at AT&T watched colleagues get fired when they couldn’t get their margins to match what Ebbers and Worldcom was showing The Street.
Lost a consulting gig at Avis Cendant when 9/11 killed some of contacts.
All of it gives me a special perspective on pricing vol.
As an aside. I don’t know, but something wicked this way comes. I’m looking first week of November. Let’s get past month end.
Don’t you agree? Something is fuct in here and a spanner is work will appear.
leftwing says:
October 20, 2021 at 10:15 am
“In terms of capital market instruments, if you asked Pumps what is his favorite spread, he’d say “Skippy”.”
LOL. Chi, you’re a CFA/RIA, right?
Spanner in the works
“why the fcuk am i paying for Prime if I can’t get sh1t overnight?”
Wasn’t that always going to be the Bezos plan to make you think you have one thing and accept getting less?
“Ginkgo has seen growing demand for biosecurity, a huge new market brought on by COVID-19. This takes the company beyond foundry and diagnostics.”
A strong company need not market itself with catchphrases. Performance alone should keep investors on board and more coming. Are you aware of what “biosecurity” is? The term went mainstream when Mad Cow Disease took off. It’s another term for protecting one flock from another. Covid-19 did not bring a huge new market for biosecurity. It always existed. When I see catchphrases, like “disruptor” or “AI”, it is clearly a red flag that they are marketing themselves to fools. Not picking on you here, but you don’t see successful companies throwing terms around or reinventing their purpose quarterly. Young companies need to focus on core competencies before trying to be everything to everyone.
Overnight shipping was to wipe out mom & pop. Why would you wait three days if you could get it later today or in the morning? Now that mom & pop are pretty much gone, especially from a pricing point. Why pay through the noise for (outsourced) shipping?
“-If you bet $0.96 on Murphy and he wins the election, you win $1.00
-if you bet $0.04 on Ciaterelli and he wins the election, you win $1.00”
If you can actually gamble for real on this, let some jackasses run Ciaterelli up to .07-.08 and load up on Murphy at 93-94. Easier return than bitcoin.
JFC, chi, that sequence is baptism by fire….ouch.
I agree with you. Problem for me, if I distill down that long first post to you, is that the combined and unprecedented twin distortions from the effects of the Fed and COVID has rendered any rationale analysis or even framework for analysis moot….as such, trying to put together any portfolio – even with the best of analysis – is a crapshoot….which is how sometime around four years ago I pulled in on any long term ‘investment’ and discovered a way to sell to the market overpriced risk, rather than buy it from them…..I can’t wait to get back to ‘normal’ and roll more proceeds into a bunch of solid LT platform companies….at these prices, with these rates and economic backdrop? Pass.
12:45 and Walmart before that – and SEARs before that.
mom & pop stores in the USA had been risky ventures for the past 150 years
How could you compete with the economy of scale that SEARS offered. They could provide every single item in the modern home. Plus, they could deliver the entire home.
Sears Homes: http://www.searsarchives.com/homes/1908-1914.htm
Marketing matters. You have to be able to market to sell products, get funding, and bring your product to the market. Musk, Cathie, and jobs are masters at this.
“A strong company need not market itself with catchphrases. Performance alone should keep investors on board and more coming.”
Aren’t we all here to make money? So why are you such a dick all the time?
You are one smart dude, but your ego holds you back. If you knew tesla so well, why did you waste so much time trading it? Should have juat bought it all last decade, crack open a beer, and call it a day. Instead, due to having to feed your ego, you go complicate it and add more work to the table.
Just let go of the ego and stop being such a prick. Lighten up.
leftwing says:
October 20, 2021 at 12:32 pm
“Most people do not have the slightest comprehension of what DNA is and where they are going. Blow it off if you want, but this has major upside potential.”
Stupid fcuk….I actually invested in this as units…..posted in here, searchable, I said my only trepidation on holding it through DNA was that CW was also IN, which having her participation scared not encouraged me.
“When I see catchphrases, like “disruptor” or “AI”, it is clearly a red flag that they are marketing themselves to fools. Not picking on you here, but you don’t see successful companies throwing terms around or reinventing their purpose quarterly.”
Go back and look at their announcements leading up to the merger Lib…..quantity, timing, and content.
Your best Broadway show is not better choreographed….I’ve been there and done that…everyone in a room or on a call sorting out ‘what is going to be rolled out when’ to build lego by lego ‘the story’ culminating in the event….I saw that and CW hop in and knew ST at least this is a trade not an investment yet.
Serious company, real product….$24B market cap right now? Ehhhhh…..that doesn’t fit through the risk/reward doorway….get out the chainsaw for either the company valuation or doorway…..
“So why are you such a dick all the time?…Just let go of the ego and stop being such a prick. Lighten up.”
No ego. See, if you actually made an effort at any work whatsoever you would know the market is very humbling and anyone who approaches with hubris ultimately gets hurt…
On being a prick, I’m actually a very pleasant human being (so I’m told) invited to spend quality time with people whom I respect and like.
Being a dick to you? Absolutely. You represent an affront to everything I deem of value and worthwhile.
Two comments from Lib representing completely opposite ends of the ‘truth and accuracy’ spectrum…
“the real reason for the gap [Murph vs Jack C] is the rejection of populist politics.” — This has to be pure trolling, right? Even a Dem apologist dead-ender like Lib has to know that the only reason for this (and by and large, the explanation for blue states everywhere) is that the free-stuff crowd outnumbers the productive crowd.
“It’s debt that is fueling this rally. Eventually, you need to pay back the debt. Value will rise again and sooner then you know. You will be wiped out… Bull markets only do what they do when there is an outside influence. In this case, it’s our governments willingness to put every negative event on the FED’s balance sheet…” — Outstanding comment! Succinct, accurate and borne from experience.
Lefty,
Whatever you say. If putting down people makes you feel good, so be it. Relationships are definitely not your strong point. Ego gets in the way.
How many billions are you worth since you know it all?
Afford homes in NJ with ease!! What a moron, maybe you should actually talk to some of them , but that’s not possible as you don’t know anyone in corporate America with two exceptions. Maybe you know some teachers that are buying homes with ease in NJ.
Chi,
How could you not feel something bad is coming when Cathie’s neurotic clapping monkey telling everyone here that we are idiots. It reminds me of 2000 when I worked for telecom startup, preparing for IPO in March. Guy I knew was cheering for months, putting thousands into ESPP. We were all going to be rich. How could you not buy as much as possible? He was incessant. I dabbled with a few hundred. This guy was 20k easy. IPO hit in Q1 2000, shot up 35% next day to $38 then all the execs cashed in and quit that day. I think there was lockout period for employees. Can’t recall details but basically by end of Q1 the stock was under $15. By Q3, under $8 and by early 2001 about $2 before company filed BK in Q3 2021. Some of us lived through it before and this time is much much worse as Fed actively pumping and cheering on insanity as desperate hope. Katie, bar the door as they say.
3b,
Yo is not me. I don’t know why you keep associating me with other people on this blog.
I get it, you guys got burned in 1999. This is not 1999. It’s 2021. I know you don’t want to hear it, but it is different. Was the fed using the same strategy they are using now back in 1999? 1999 was a complete joke at the peak. Anything with .com was flying. That’s not the case right now. I don’t get why we keep make comparison’s to 1999.
Will there be a bust….there always is, but I don’t know about some monster bust. Fed seems to want to prevent that at all costs. Over the past 10 years, any time a gear in the economy was about to stop, the Fed came to the rescue.
Boomer strikes again. Keep America Stupid.
County college is dirt cheap. Boomer like piling on the debt and leaving it to the youth and giving them nothing in return.
“Getting the ax is his proposal for two years of free community college.”
What is going on with Zillow? Read an article that they have been buying up fixer homes like crazy and now put brakes on? I really can’t believe Fed has done this. Gives billions free to these companies and they turn around an blow up the housing sector, forcing regular folks into competition who take on debt/mortgage without much govt handout. WFT is country coming to?
Seems the gators got Brian Laundrie
Pumps: My apologies I just noticed that it was Yo who said it and not you. That being said I would assume you agree with his statement.
gJGSbroc
I have an NYU MBA plus a CFA. Both took a lot of work. An MBA covers a wider scope of business knowledge and should also help boost writing and presentation skills. A CFA has a lot to do with study and test prep skills and should ensure at least some familiarity with a wide range of financial knowledge.
I don’t think an MBA replaces a CFA designation or vice-versa.
Pumpkin would flunk out of both.
Zillow . . .
As a participant in the housing industry, Zillow made two big moves over the last 1-3 years or so. One smart, one dumb.
The smart one is that they started charging for rental listings. Before that, they were free for landlords to post rental listings. In Northern NJ, the king of apartment rental listings was long craigslist, then it was supplanted for a short time by apartments.com, then zillow became the leader by far. For context, shortly before Z went to charging, I would get something like the follwoing response to an apartment rental ad (1 email = craiglist; 1 email = apartments.com; 10 contacts = zillow). Personally, I stopped using Z when it went to charging, but their freemium -> market leading position -> start charging model was smart. I just strongly disagree with the price (something like $10 for a 2-week listing, guaranteeing at least one contact or your money back).
The dumb one was getting into the flipping business. The idea was that they have better data to be able to do this than local players. To me, catastrophically stupid – instead of selling infintely scaleable 1’s and 0’s, you are competing with every guy with a moustache, a strong back and a truck out there in the US. Like Google buying a billboard company.
“I get it, you guys got burned in 1999. This is not 1999. It’s 2021. I know you don’t want to hear it, but it is different. Was the fed using the same strategy they are using now back in 1999?”
I didn’t, because I remembered my dad getting singed on Black Monday in 87? I studied economics in high school and every school year, we had a stock picking contest. I remember the events like they were yesterday. It’s always the same story. Counter-market risk and solvency in the IBs was uncertain. FED tries to soothe market through smooth talking, fails and then has to start purchasing on the open markets. In this case, I think it took 7% of the monetary base of the country to stop the bleeding. This in turn significantly lowered the Fed Funds rate by .5 overnight. The reason this worked was due to the slow and methodical Greenspan both lending the money and demanding quick and public payback. Everything put on the balance sheet was quickly removed.
If market crashes tomorrow, Fed Funds rate is essentially at 0. Loans are kept on the balance sheet in perpetuity and we starting with a deficit of what 125% of GDP? What debt level causes international trade in a different currency. Like the renminbi?
In short, the FED is starting in a horrible position. Powell is no Greenspan. The FED simply “can’t” do the same thing it did in 99 either because real estate is already inflated. Where are they going to drive investment dollars to? So I suppose you are correct Pumps. It indeed IS different this time. The FED doesn’t have bullets in its gun.
Plus the FED chiefs have all lost credibility in that they were all burned for insider trading. They can no longer instill confidence. They are as corrupt as the leaders who appoint them.
Lib,
Im just playing devils advocate. So don’t get angry at me.
So what actually causes a bust? IMHO, it is when a gear stops working in the economy. It then causes all the other gears to stop working till the engine crashes. You don’t have to save the whole economy, all you have to do is keep the gear moving. The FED seems to be able to do this now. 2020 should have been a massive bust, but the FED came right in and did whatever it took to keep those gears moving. So much so, that businesses cut back thinking it would crash when the opposite happened.
The FED seems to know what they are doing right now. Is it perfect? No, but it sure as hell beats a massive depression. Who cares about all the noise, what is the big picture? Seems to be that the FED is in more control than they have ever been in our nation’s history.
2008 should have also been a massive bust…but what happened? Coincidence? No, 2020 and 2008 are case studies on why we will prob never see a major bust like the Great Depression in our lifetime.
The FED didn’t do nearly as much you and I did in 2020. Remember that lockdown? Well the internet made it like it never really happened. We just spent online what we used to spend in person. Then our corrupt leaders, in an attempt to buy votes, started sending 98% of the population free checks when only about 10% of the population was impacted negatively. Covid hospitalization? No charge. Hello socialized healthcare, only you don’t even have to pay for it. The debt did. Hello monster rally. The problem is, this debt has not even begun to come off the balance sheet and the rally is going to fizzle soon. What’s the debt service going to cost?
You keep ignoring debt.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
THIS CHART ABOVE is what is fueling the market. Not innovation. It’s probably the only chart responsible for krypto growth.
Lib: He ignores the debt, he ignores the zero interest rate environment; he just rambles on. It’s amazing!
Regarding Zillow, they are not only buying fixer uppers. Zillow buys houses, period. Value minus carry and spruce up with a tight allowance for profit. Probably paying around 82 to 85% of as is value in certain markets. Not much room for mistakes.
The fed does appear to know what they are doing….trading ahead of their moves.
“It’s probably the only chart responsible for krypto growth.”
It’s the chart responsible for the EXISTENCE of crypto….
The Fed (Reserve and Govt) have pumped so much money into people and companies that real estate and stocks can’t even absorb it all so we are inventing entirely new asset classes to mop up the liquidity….
You think NFTs would even exist if we were in a 6-8% range for the 10Y and a normal overnight rate?
We are literally making up non-existent sh1t to buy because there is nowhere else to put the money being thrown at us.
Collectable market is off the charts as well. Screw tech stocks….I sold a bunch of cards that I bought for quarters for hundreds of dollars each this week.
DNA is an attractive company. I know the biotech tools space well. I am sure the company will do well.
The prospects for the stock…..which is entirely different than the prospects for the company?
It is trading at 70x revenue three years out. Not 70 times trailing, not 70x revenue estimate for 2021, not 70x revenue for the following year….and not 70x P/E…..70 times REVENUE three years out…..and only a modest 131x forward (2022) revenue. LOL.
Pumps is finally right….it’s not anything like 1999….1999 was tame compared to this…..
crushed, you nailed it on Zillow….entry into flipping made no sense….why move into a low margin, cyclical, asset heavy business coming from platform 1.0?
They paused it because they have reached an inventory level that their ops couldn’t support…unsaid I suspect that with pricing stabilizing, the slow season coming up, sh1tty margins (12 or so percentage point spread), and it being a small and unprofitable part of their overall business why risk hiccups there blowing the golden goose up?
Overall, a positive decision spun very hard negative by the WSJ.
Also, they did a pause at least once before, in March 2020, when obviously no one had a read on the RE market direction….
Gives me comfort they manage risk this way for an unprofitable, small segment of their business, that plus the overreaction down is why I went long.
Pumpkin at 4:39 . . .
Lib’s link says it all, but the long version is:
You are glossing over THE biggest conversation with respect to asset prices, gdp growth and the global economy and general investment since 2008. Since 2008, there has been concern and debate about whether or not the FED and Uncle Sam are out of bullets (fiscal and monetary policy), and thus will not be able to confront the next recession. If they are unable to confront the next recession, it will theoretically be longer and deeper than if they can confront it. Indeed, maybe longer and deeper than 2008, dotcom bust, or 1929.
US federal debt = $29T.
Debt to GDP = 125%+
2021 Annual interest cost for Fed debt= $400B
2021 Annual interest cost as a percentage of federal spending = 9%
Pre-Covid annual fed budget deficit: $1T
All of these numbers are getting worse each day. If it’s possible to actually push out more fiscal spending, then our leaders are jerks for not spending on 3-K or free community college over the last 20 years, rather than $5T for the endless wars and $4.5T overreacting to Covid. If it’s not possible to actually push out more fiscal spending than our economic system might “bend” – credit downgrade for US debt, the non-US govt buyers of treasuries may shift away from UST, inflation, global reduction of demand for USD compared to other currencies, tax raises in USA which actually might lower govt collections, and possible really bad cascading effects onward from there.
Monetary policy – well, the federal funds rate is near zero and the conversation isn’t really about raising it, for crying out loud. The conversation isn’t even about selling the stuff on the Fed’s stuffed $8T+ balance sheet. The conversation is about tapering – merely reducing the pace of new purchases while assets hitting maturity roll off!
So, it’s sensible for an investor to look around and feel like the global economy is perched on the edge of cliff, a knife’s edge or whatever metaphor for precarious danger that you want to use. And, it’s sensible that such investors would be keenly sensitive to any problem which might present systemic risks and might start the fire (like, for example the Chinese property market – off-hand, Chinese new housing construction is something like 25% of the Chinese GDP; meanwhile at the heights of 2006 in the US the relevant comp was 6% – which normalized back to approximately 3% after the 2005-2007 housing frenzy ended).
To date, the investor who has gone long, long, long in the face of these conditions has done well. However, when that paradigm shifts, no one really knows what comes next – something between soft landing and the walking dead.
Finally, regarding action in the face of this. I’m many years from retirement, so I am buy and hold on pretty much everything. I wonder sometimes whether I would liquidate a substantial portion of my holdings even if the markets doubled overnight today, I’m such a buy-and-hold. Nonetheless, it’s scary sometimes to think about what Powell and the other Fed Chiefs have done; and what Biden and the other recent Presidents have done; and what Xi and his guys have done (because China is the #2 economy), etc. etc.
I’m not sure what it’s like, but if you look at my Linked in network suggestions, it keeps suggesting my former students from 8 to 10 years ago. Some of the goofiest kids I worked with who were horrible at math now have titles like “Credit Risk Analyst”. This will not end well.
Leftwing at 6:38 on Zillow in the flipping business making no sense . . .
Agreed. There are like 10 tech and finance business models that would make sense for Zillow to do in this space (maybe they already do?) which would align with their core product and that Wall Street would reward:
(1) Z could sell a data subscription to flippers which advises on homes that a flipper should target with his flipper marketing. Something like back-end data and algorithms incorporating owner info [old people, or guessing who suffered a job loss, or bad flooding or whatever else might make an off-market house owner be interested in a flipper’s lowball] house price and condition estimates for all existing off-market homes to ongoing, refreshed sales price data.
(2) Z could finance flipping. Using algorithms to predict the potential success of a given flip (what is the flipper buying for, what are the proposed improvements, what is the targeted sale price) and access to cheap finance, it might be a better hard money player than the leaders in the hard money industry.
(3) Z might be able to somehow gather data re contractor reliability, pricing and quality for flippers as a data tool. The algorithm crunches construction defect or construction delay litigation, workman’s comp claims, osha violations against permit origination date information. AI scans the before and after photos, if available, of a flip.
Jim Cramer blasts ‘bearish billionaires,’ says it’s time to stop taking their investment advice
CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Wednesday blasted “bearish billionaires,” saying everyday investors ought to stop listening to their stock market calls.
“It’s time the end this ridiculous charade of bearish billionaires who’ve been negative for ages being allowed to come on air and say everything they want about how bad things are, even as you’ve made so much more money being positive than they have in the last few years,” the “Mad Money” host said.
“You can’t take investment advice from oligarchs no matter how smart they sound, because they have a very different set of priorities and a very different agenda from you, and we need to stop pretending otherwise.”
Compared to everyday investors like the viewers of his show, Cramer said super wealthy people can afford to have “total contempt” for the stock market and take minimal risk.
“You only need to get rich once,” Cramer said, adding that once the “mega rich” reach that pinnacle, the one true threat to them is inflation because it erodes the value of their dollars. By contrast, many hourly workers in the U.S. are seeing their wages go up right now, he said.
“I think many of the wealthy, wittingly or unwittingly, are pulling up the ladder behind them by scaring you away from the stock market with horror stories about the dangers of inflation lurking everywhere,” Cramer said.
Cramer said it goes beyond dire inflation warnings of late.
“They’re also scaring you away from some of the best stocks in the market that really don’t have anything to do with inflation at all,” he said, highlighting Tesla, Amazon and Netflix as examples.
“Rich and powerful people spent years coming on air and talking trash about all three,” Cramer said, but he contended they’ve become some of the most successful companies of all time.
Aside from a few exceptions, Cramer urged retail investors to stop taking their cue from “super-rich money managers.”
“Do you think it’s a coincidence that so many hedge fund guys made giant bets against [Tesla, Amazon and Netflix] and lost? I don’t think so,” Cramer said.
“The people behind those companies wanted to create wealth for their shareholder; they were willing to take huge risks for you in order to help you get rich long with themselves. If you held their stocks for long , that’s exactly what you did,” he said. “That’s huge for the vast majority of people, but if you’ve already got a billion dollars, it’s meaningless, which is why they have no appreciation for these companies or their evangelical leaders.”
Cramer nails it. Knocks it out of the park.
It’s funny, this is exactly what I always talking about today in an earlier post.
How many times has the “smartest guy in the room” start going over the books with tesla to convince you tbat it was garbage? Heard it so many times that it cost me my shot at tesla. I listened like an idiot. Should have took the easy play (always bet on musk) instead of listening to the “smart guys” that said tesla was a joke. Talk about being wrong…
OMG, priceless, it is pure karma you are a fan of Cramer….
Many, many people have made untold sums off Cramer’s advice…by taking the other side of the trade. LOL.
crushed, all great ideas…I like (1), goes right to the heart of big data…for (2) they already offer mortgage and title services, should be a no-brainer to finance flippers….basic offer a prepackaged “flip-in-a-box”, the prospect flipper gets nearly all services wrapped for him
Re: (3) buy Angie’s list, flailing and failing, it wouldn’t even be a rounding error for them. Incorporate into the main business for consumer and flippers, rejuvenates it.
I’d add (4)…if you’re going to go through the bother of buying and fixing homes why do it in a subscale business at a crappy margin? Hold the homes and be a landlord. Invitation Homes-like. Which is where the President of the flipping division came from….hmmmmm..
I’d add (4)
left, that is one of my favorite strategies. Anything Cramer advises do the opposite. Shorting anything pumps recommends might also be a wining strategy.
left my father was a real estate developer for 40 years, he would have told you the idea of a large national company acting as a landlord or flipping homes was insane. Residential realestate was his least favorite line of business because of the difficulty of dealing with individual consumers, the high level or variability in cashflow, etc. He would tell you wall street banks don’t understand the real estate business mostly because of the incentive structure was not promoting good decision making, they were paid to package deals if the deals blew up in 5-7 years that wouldn’t hit their bottom line. He would not too infrequently sell what he considered marginal properties to large Wall Street interests with very unfavorable terms. The problem is the incentive for an employee of a bank or Zillow is not the same as an individual who stands to make a large payday on a successful deal. Residential realestate is hyperlocal you need to be plugged into what is going on, the politics, etc in order to be successful.
Selling data or matching investors to vendors or lenders is the best bet. It is simply too hard to keep an eye on SFH, to deal with different jurisdictions, etc. They cannot get employees to do this for them, there is too much leg work and anyone good is in the business themselves. Typically national real estate companies need local partners in order to succeed and targeting tons of markets mean lot of partners which is not easy either. Zillow I think has learned this lesson, real estate is harder than it first appears.
Im not a cramer fan, but I agree with what he said in the article I shared.
Jcer,
Nailed it. I agree with your father. How the hell do they do it on a national level? I don’t know.
But…they are doing it.
>$15 billion
Kusner Cos.’ estimate of the worth of its own real estate holdings. The company has largely shifted away from flashier Manhattan acquisitions to buying rental apartments in mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states.
Left,
Not sure if I missed your call or not. Sorry if I did, switching from Android to Iphone. What a nightmare.
I don’t agree, but porn for the rest of you.
1. Stocks: all-time highs
2. Home prices: all-time highs
3. Bitcoin: all-time highs
4. Wages: all-time highs
5. Job openings: all-time highs
6. PCE Inflation: highest since 1990
7. Fed: we need to hold interest rates down at 0% for another year to boost asset prices and inflation
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1450830354277928964?s=21
So this is the lesson for today. People will make money in this market but the key to success is who will keep it for long term.
Yup. The hate is strong with the old guard.
“People don’t believe me that Amazon was called “SCAMAZON” just 10 years ago on Internet forums. Amazon Web Services was considered a total joke for upside. In 2018, it became more of a certainty and a Sure Thing.”
“Bitcoin has fully recovered from a >50% drawdown for only the 5th time in history
If bitcoin returns half of what it returned the last time this happened, btc will hit $125,000
If it returns half of what it has returned on average, btc will hit $300,000”
https://twitter.com/yassineark/status/1450840264550060033?s=21
The comments on Donnies new Media Empire announcement by Traitor Tot are awesome.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1451002275535605767
Pumps Kushner is the local real estate guy and a slumlord, that is a very different business than SFH. They are managing complexes and a lot of them in concentrated markets. That is a return to their traditional business, they got burned badly in Manhattan, Kushner’s wealth is from NJ urban and suburban apartment complexes, they know that business. When they describe it as “mid-atlantic” they are talking about NJ, they flipped a bunch of ghetto apartments in NJ for ghetto apartments in the SE, it remains to be seen if that performs better(the cap rates are way higher provided you can collect the rent). Blackrock buying single family homes is the example, they will likely get beaten badly, single family is a nightmare, operationally it’s very difficult. My family did development in NJ, NY, PA, CT, MD, and FL with the lion share in NY/NJ, generally you have a local partner and geographically it is close enough that you can be around enough to make sure it isn’t being mismanaged.
Fab- only thing I got from that video is Donnie jr got lots of Botox and some bad hair implant job..
Rt down to .89, which is great news.
Nearly 350k booster doses given to date.
Closing in on 75% first-dose, with huge progress made closing racial gaps.
We’re down to something like 5k a day on new first doses, which is really starting to hit a wall, new doses are the slowest they’ve ever been. We might see this pop a bit with approval of the 5-11 age range.
Mandates are appearing to be fizzling out at this point. Pretty sure we’re approaching #peakvax here.
One scientist from Rutgers who has been calling out Fauci from the beginning.
Their own memos….on lab created covid…
https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1450950410013794314
Juice, I was in the same department as Dr. Ebright. He was one of the most intelligent professors on campus. And it should be noted, Ebright was sounding the alarm on this stuff (the Wuhan lab) years ahead of the pandemic. He’s got balls of steel openly criticizing in public the guy that holds to the keys to all his grant money (Fauci).
Here’s the problem, Fauci is basically in a position with enough influence to cut off the grant money from any scientist at any university. The only reason you don’t see anyone coming out of the woodwork in academia to challenge his nonsensical positions and behavior is because it’s akin to career suicide. We desperately need to get him out of here and replace him with someone who has much more intelligence and credibility (Scott Gottlieb?). It won’t happen because he’s officially been anointed the high priest of science. Maybe midterms can sway this.
Kushner should go to China and help them with their apartment problem.
“7. Fed: we need to hold interest rates down at 0% for another year to boost asset prices and inflation.” And double our national debt?
Despite the U.S.’s progress, economists cite Japan and EU nations as examples of the failures of ZIRP. Low interest rates have been attributed to the development of liquidity traps, which happens when saving rates become high and render monetary policy ineffective. Implementation of zero interest rates has mostly taken place after an economic recession when deflation, unemployment and slow growth prevail. Diminished investor confidence or mounting concern over deflation can also lead to liquidity traps. Additionally, despite zero interest rates and monetary expansion, borrowing can stagnate when corporations pay down debt from earnings rather than choosing to reinvest in the company.
ZIRP can also lead to financial turmoil in the markets during periods of economic stability. When interest rates are low, investors seek higher yield instruments (KRYPTO?) that are generally associated with riskier assets. In the early 2000s, U.S. investors facing similar conditions chose to invest heavily in subprime mortgage backed securities (MBS). Due to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s involvement with MBS, investors perceived these securities as secure with relatively high returns. However, as history has shown, mortgage backed securities were an integral piece leading to the Great Recession.
“Kushner should go to China and help them with their apartment problem.”
That’s really funny.
Question to the group. Sell now or wait till spring? We just finished a complete renovation of the kitchen and refinished floors. No ties to NJ anymore, I work from home for years now and husband is semi-retired. Bergen County, 1500 sqft split level, looking at 600k.
I’d sell now. The artificial things in place such as eviction/foreclosure moratoriums and foreclosures, once they end, are going to cause all kinds of chaos in the market.
Why are people so against vaccines? It’s ridiculous. It really is. So sick of these people bashing vaccines that saved a lot of lives.
If you have the option to wait, why would you sell now? It’s the worst time of year to sell real estate. If you are not living in it, then you sell now.
bergen says:
October 21, 2021 at 10:16 am
Question to the group. Sell now or wait till spring? We just finished a complete renovation of the kitchen and refinished floors. No ties to NJ anymore, I work from home for years now and husband is semi-retired. Bergen County, 1500 sqft split level, looking at 600k
Lib,
Low interest rates are here to stay. They will prob go negative if the economy falls off. This is the reality whether you agree with it or not. What’s the other option? Raise rates and destroy the economy? Why do that? What’s the worst thing that can happen, we become japan? Life goes on. That’s better than a full blow depression where people are on bread lines suffering for no reason whatsoever. There is no reason people should be in that position if we don’t have to.
bergen,
How long have you been in the house? Do you have a mortgage or is it paid? What are the variables in your control? The ones you can’t control are inventory numbers; meaning, the buyer/seller ratio. If you have many buyers and little to chose from, then it’s in your favor. A year ago, all you had to do is sit back and watch the sellers fight for your house. Now, there’s a little more inventory but still a seller’s market. If wringing every dollar out of the place is not a priority or you don’t need to go now, then perhaps waiting until spring makes more sense.
Sometimes central banks control interest rates, and sometimes they don’t. Occasionally they lose control and look like the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain.
The worst that can happen is probably going back to the 1970’s early 1980s type of inflation and interest rates.
Never ever sell. Real Estate only goes up, you should leverage that house and buy three more in Bergen County. The streets are paved with gold and there are millions of people clamoring to live in a 1500 sq ft split level with $16,000 a year in taxes.
Trump SPAC “Truth Social” soars….
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DWAC
thanks for replies
taxes are 10.3k, 125k left on the mortgage, been here 9 years, will rent on the other side, so don’t need to go now
Not that it matters, because this post by you is pure trolling, and most likely intend to be. However, flip this situation to you. Imagine you had the ability to draw down on a credit line of $500,000 at a low interest rate and no need to repay anything for five years. Think of all the good you could do for yourself, family, friends, society. Go ahead go crazy. Nothing to stop you.
The Great Pumpkin says:
October 21, 2021 at 10:39 am
Lib,
Low interest rates are here to stay. They will prob go negative if the economy falls off. This is the reality whether you agree with it or not. What’s the other option? Raise rates and destroy the economy? Why do that? What’s the worst thing that can happen, we become japan? Life goes on. That’s better than a full blow depression where people are on bread lines suffering for no reason whatsoever. There is no reason people should be in that position if we don’t have to
re:” full blow depression ”
Straw man argument again Pumps?
No way we go back to a depression for you see the banks can never fail.
Chi, you know better than this. Personal debt is different than govt debt. Don’t get them twisted. Govt is supposed to run on perpetual debt. Otherwise, bond market would cease to exist.
An individual going into 500k debt with no means to service debt is much different than a govt backed by fiat currency going into debt. We have the FED, and they can inflate away the debt if need be. It’s just not the same as personal debt.
If they raise rates drastically right now, all that does is slow the economy down. Now that the economy is drastically slowing down because you raised the rates, you just made it that much harder to pay the debt back as the economy is no longer growing, but contracting. On top of the economy not growing, aka losing revenue, you now have to pay more money to service said debt. Why would we want to go down this road? Why?
If you drastically raise rates, it will all crash. Don’t kid yourself. You can’t load up the debt, than drastically increase the cost to service said debt.
Juice Box says:
October 21, 2021 at 11:36 am
re:” full blow depression ”
Straw man argument again Pumps?
No way we go back to a depression for you see the banks can never fail.
There are a large number of people who have looked at the data, and made a decision that it makes zero sense from a statistical perspective. These are not anti-vaxxers.
The mRNA data for the second shot on 12-17 year olds showed myocarditis in approximately 1 out of 6000, with a large percentage of them requiring hospital care. In that same age group, the risk of hospitalization in COVID positive people is approximately 1 in 10000. So in short, 2 doses of mRNA is statistically more dangerous to you than COVID. These numbers are inflated for those that were already infected by COVID meaning you are likely to have an adverse reaction on the 1st shot
So, the FDA needs to take a clear look on actually recognizing those that have natural immunity as vaccinated (when all the data points to their immunity being far superior). Moreover, those studies show that the dosing was way too high for that age group and they’ve cut it to a 1/3, which is definitely appropriate. The problem is, they don’t have the data on those doses. This is now being rushed. This could have all been avoided if they were level headed and didn’t insist a 300 lb male gets the same dose as a 110 pound female for the past year.
You’ve had 2 senior FDA officials resign over the administrations planning and handling of this which is awful for the optics. The same guy that on his campaign trail who said to the country that Trump would politicize the approval process (he didn’t) is doing just that.
What’s K Sinema’s angle? Her party hates her because she’s not going along to get along. Eventually she will take a deal from her party I assume, but I wonder what that deal is. Senators don’t bravely stand up against runaway spending just on principle alone.
She has been doing publicly bipartisan stuff for several years. She was one of very few who clapped for some Republican sponsored programs during a Trump state of the union speech early on.
Does she think this is how she can run for president? I don’t see that working because Democratic presidential primaries are dominated by commie voters and minorities, not moderates. Unless she wants to run on the “first bi president” platform since Cankles didn’t win.
BRT,
Give it a rest. The vaccines have saved countless lives. Just enough with the bs.
My hardcore Republican friends tell me the same bs as you. Quite frankly, I’m sick of it. Stop acting like the vaccine is dangerous and the virus is not. Please.
I always resort to asking my friends what is your solution? Just do nothing? Jokers.
“Elon Musk’s net worth is now higher than the market cap of all but 25 public companies.”
“He’s undervalued. I’m not aware of anyone else on the planet that has disrupted so many industries with Novel Solutions. He does next to nothing to reward himself with luxuries and indulgences which is something I’ve never scene before. He makes Warren Buffet look overindulgent.
He’s rid himself of most possessions and properties and lives in a tiny sustainable home. I don’t think he gets much credit for being such a hard worker. It’s like he’s read The Psychology of Money.”
If you have bashed Musk over the past 10 years, admit how wrong you were. Tell yourself how stupid of a position that was. Never bet against musk. Never.
No One,
She is the conservative version of Bernie Sanders. She has always stood by her convictions. She actually reminds me a lot of my own political alignment.
I suppose, she figures she has nothing to lose taking her current position. Her state will benefit greatly if she takes a deal. If she continues to buck the party line, she probably ends up more popular in her state. If the Dems try to damage her, she can easily join the other side and Trump will make a hero out of her.
Shame there aren’t more like her.
Didn’t Musk shoot a car into space? Tell your story to the underaged heavy metal miners in Africa.
‘Nuff said.
Can’t wait for him to screw up.
Tell your story to the underaged heavy metal miners in Africa.
This is one thing I wish the “save the environment” crowd or anyone cares to explain how stripping the earth of metals and creating electric cells is better? And then what to do with the byproduct and ultimate waste of spent/damaged/non-reusable electric batteries and components?
This is why no one likes talking to you. You are incapable of rational or intelligent conversation.
The severe consequence of the climate alarmist crowd has been that the only “pollutant” they care about is carbon dioxide….allowing everyone else to poison lands with real pollutants that are much worse.
Hydrogen is the long-term Green solution. The moneyed interests will never let the hydrogen story come to fruition.
Brt,
Why is it so difficult to support the vaccine? Why are people searching for reasons to not take it? What you are doing, whether intentional or not, is trying to find reasons to justify not taking a vaccine that has been approved by the FDA.
Why do you get mad at me when i call it out?
How is the electricity generated to power the batteries? In our country it’s still almost all non-renewable. Good thing third world countries like Costa Rica know what it means to be green and generate 100% of their electricity through renewable resources. America #1.
Stop posting data and nuanced comments. I’m incapable of understanding.
Why do you have sex with farm animals?
The Great Pumpkin says:
October 21, 2021 at 12:55 pm
Lib,
You are taking the same approach with this as BRT with the vaccine. So what’s the alternative? Do nothing? Keep using fossil fuels till we run out and then try to figure out?
Face,
Grow up.
There are plenty of “moneyed interests” pushing hydrogen in transport. The problem has long been that it’s extremely energy intensive and thus expensive to create, and thus uneconomical as a propulsion technology. Hydrogen is best seen as a means of storing energy than a source of energy, until there’s a fusion reactor. Sure the industrial gasses companies have been pushing for this for years. But now the environmentalists have picked up on the fact that while the hydrogen powered vehicle doesn’t emit CO2, the manufacturing of the hydrogen emits massive CO2, such that it’s worse than just using gasoline or diesel, net. Unless you come up with “greener” ways of making the hydrogen, like using solar power or windmill power to make it. Which in turn just makes it even more expensive.
A fusion reactor would be the best way to use hydrogen as fuel. But about 70 years later, economically practical fusion power still doesn’t exist, and doesn’t look near.
Anyway, blaming “moneyed interests” for the absence of particular technologies is lazy thinking mixed up with conspiracy theory. Like the mythical cars that would get 100mpg that the oil companies shut down. Never happened, probably the story some grifter told investors after he ran off with their money. Look around you and you will see that it’s “moneyed interests” that have delivered millions of technological innovations to you. And are spending hundreds of billions in R&D trying to develop things new and better. And as we see energy costs rise and energy become more scarce and intermittent in the years immediately ahead, try to remember that it’s tons of government regulations and highly regulated companies that end up causing this.
Pumps: it’s an agency issue. Adolescents are put in the position of making a “bad percentage” health decision (negative average value to their health) that could impact them for many decades, and put the lives of old people with possibly 10-20 years of life ahead. While it makes for good politics and optics, the logical decision is waaaaay more murky. Vax a healthy white 12 year old in good physical shape who is on percentage likely to have a mild COVID outcome so Colin Powell can live another couple of years?
he Great Pumpkin says:
October 21, 2021 at 12:55 pm
Brt,
Why is it so difficult to support the vaccine? Why are people searching for reasons to not take it? What you are doing, whether intentional or not, is trying to find reasons to justify not taking a vaccine that has been approved by the FDA.
Why do you get mad at me when i call it out?
BRT I love the deforestation in the name of “green energy” what a farce. It was like when I told my FIL about my opinion of the infrastructure bill, his response was aren’t you concerned about climate change? To which my response was what are they doing to actually prevent it? No one has a solution, you can subsidize solar or wind even more than they already do but they take energy to produce and typically do not live up to their production promises, create waste and also do not provide consistent power. They keep pushing for electrification where we will still likely get our power from fossil fuels when we need it most or else we will freeze in our homes. There is no clear easy way to tackle it and throwing money at it isn’t going to “fix” things. Then once we stop burning coal it just drops the prices which means the third world just burns more. So we have alternative energy sources, electric cars/charging stations, and weatherization for homes. What else can we do to “tackle” climate change that does involve taking wads of taxpayer money and flushing it down the toilet. Can we see a report of how successful the Obama dollars we spent were on reducing emissions? Last time I checked most of the projects his administration funded when belly up. It’s graft not infrastructure or an investment in fighting climate change.
Why do you get so mad when people try to teach you something?
The Great Pumpkin says:
October 21, 2021 at 1:13 pm
Face,
Grow up.
Brt,
Why is it so difficult to support the vaccine? Why are people searching for reasons to not take it? What you are doing, whether intentional or not, is trying to find reasons to justify not taking a vaccine that has been approved by the FDA.
Why do you get mad at me when i call it out?
Why would I get mad? You called me the equivalent of your hard core right wing friends. You are incapable of separating the risk profile between adults and children.
You also called the data I posted, which comes from the CDC studies, quote “BS”. You are essentially for killing 2 kids to save 1, then scaling it up over the entire population. You are a moron.
That being said, you are clearly incapable of even reading anyone’s words and interpreting them. I’ve said countless times on this site that I’m in support of the vaccine. And if you’ve ever read my posts on this, including my most recent, I’ve stated that the mRNA vaccines should be a single shot for children at the dosages they were suggesting. I’ve also stated, it may be possible to give them 2 shots, but at a lower dose….and I said this MONTHS before they officially cut the dose to 1/3. Now it may be possible that 2 of those shots is ideal and leads to better outcomes…the problem is…the data isn’t in yet! So you cannot jump to conclusions. The same goes for a 3rd booster (which is likely beneficial to at risk individuals), but again, you are not allowed to jump to conclusions….that’s how real science works.
I’ve also stated, I believe they should have started the children trials on the J&J much earlier because that is adenovirus, and does not lead to myocarditis. It is likely much safer given the initial data we have on 12-17.
Moreover, it’s not FDA approved for ages 5 to 11! And there’s a reason they haven’t done it yet, because they see the numbers and cannot justify it. But someone from above sure seems eager to rush this one out. So why do I get mad? Simple…you have no facts and you are the most arrogant opinionated poster on this board to say the things you do when it’s obvious to everyone none of your opinions are ever justified.
Pumps: here’s one. Toxic superfund site on the Passaic. Company comes in and remediates completely. EPA says place is safe. Do you go for a swim with your family? Why not?
Yeah. Thought so.
But the EPA said it was safe.
JCer, IMO wind is great, but obviously limited in terms of scale and reliability. Going nuclear is our best option as we transition to something better. And my later research in grad school was on Room Temperature Organic Ionic Liquids, which have shown great promise in possibly finding organic alternatives to metals for all of these “clean energy” things like solar panels and fuel cells.
For those that don’t know, a room temperature ionic liquid are made of larger asymmetric organic cations/anions. They are liquid at room temperature because their asymmetry prevents them from being able to form a crystalline structure.
Yes chi that is the point, a friend of ours was just forced into the vax by their employer and had an adverse reaction. At our age maybe that’s a risk worth taking but for young kids it’s just silly. My daughters friends family all got it, the kids were all fine, the wife was pretty sick and the husband damn near died and is still recovering months later. Exceedingly few children experience severe illness compared to 40 year olds who can get sick and it just seems like the chances of a bad outcome expand exponentially with age. Vaccinating a bunch of 7 year olds wouldn’t have saved Colin Powell, the virus is making it’s way through the vaccinated population whether they know it or not.
80 year olds regardless of vax status should be very careful but on the contrary after a long lock down they have lots of time on their hands and don’t know how much time they really have left so they want to go live. My mom and her friends are all planning vacations, going to c@sinos(a superspreader event if I’ve ever seen one), out to eat, etc. My frail FIL is planning vacations, these people have no commitments, plenty of money and an undetermined amount of time in which they are physically able to do things.
Pumps: Is here today schooling Chgo, Juice, Lib, and others. Hope you guys are taking notes; it will be on the final, which will be a combination of multiple choice and essays.
Hispanics now have a higher vaccination rates than whites in Texas
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/?_ga=2.22126203.1981306009.1634837435-673980586.1626438533
“Ese” question?
Buy now or get priced out forever!!
https://www.nj.com/ocean/2015/02/after_decades_of_studies_toms_river_residents_no_c.html
BRT besides nuclear, the others are additive, yes batteries can help with storage but not if we are going to now use electric for cars, heating. cooking, etc. I’ve got over 6000 sqft and besides cooling and the electric oven my electrical load is pretty small, I can run literally everything with a 9 kw generator. I’ve got no issues with renewable power sources but a lot of what get pushed is’t renewable, wind is fine but do I really want them deforesting the tops of mountains in the Catskills, Adirondacks and VT to put wind turbines which are deleterious to the well being of the wildlife? Yes materials engineering likely holds the key to building solar cells without the mining impacts. None of this on it’s own makes a material impact, the largest reductions in carbon emissions have come from switching to natural gas because of fracking. It just goes to show we got bupkus from the Obama infrastructure investments and a real reduction in carbon output as an unintended consequence of the free market!
Chi, even better, Christie Whitman, head of the EPA with no science degree, tells you it’s safe to go into WTC and that the air is clean after the 2 biggest asbestos filled buildings collapsed leaving a gigantic plume of particulate all over the entire island.
At the same time, I had screwed up my knee from running. 1st doc prescribed me Vioxx from Merck. 2nd time around, he gave me Bextra from Pfizer. Went for a high energy ultrasound on my foot 2 months later for plantar fasciitis…prescribes me opiods. A few years later, we learn that both Vioxx and Bextra have a side effect of heart attack that the companies knew about. They estimate, they killed 55,000 people prior to settlement. Opiods? That’s still an evolving statistic to this day. Blind trust in big pharma is a big no no. What gets me is that the Dems were typically the ones who were the loudest on big pharma and regulatory capture while Republicans took the whole free market approach to allow them to run the math on lawsuits vs. the amount of people they killed and act accordingly. With the vaccines, we removed lawsuits from the equation. So obviously, you see…what’s to hold them in check now?
Natural gas is phenomenal right now…unfortunately, pipelines are supposedly evil.
Brt,
How are you not a right winger? How are you not? I’m not picking on you, but that’s how you come off on this blog.
At the end of the day, this vaccine discussion was never about children. It was about the adults. Why are you bringing the children into this discussion? It’s not even approved for children. You are using this to paint the vaccines in a negative way. I honestly do not believe for one second that you are vaccinated. You are constantly attacking it. So I honestly don’t believe you.
BRT says:
October 21, 2021 at 1:50 pm
“…unfortunately, pipelines are supposedly evil.”
Unless they’re Russian pipelines.
” it will be on the final, which will be a combination of multiple choice and essays”
Let me give you the answers – go long technology disruption, WFH is a fad for losers and NYC area real estate is always a great investment. All hail Oz Powell…derrh.
Why are so many of you against investing in renewable resources? Why?
They might not have the technology yet, but if they keep investing in it, it will eventually be figured out. Is the gas engine from 1890 the same as a gas engine from 2021? Come on now, you guys are just against renewable energy. You bash any chance you get.
What’s the bottom line here. Do we have an unlimited supply of fossil fuels? You guys are always complaining that we should not leave debt for the future, but you are all for leaving them with the worst debt of all….no means to get off of fossil fuels and a supply that will eventually be gone.
People want simple concrete answers. Nuance is the curse of the intelligent.
Better than saying NYC is dead.
WFH is for people that care more about themselves than the company. Go ahead, build that remote team that doesn’t give a damn about the company, because if they did, they would be there in person working with their team.
Bystander says:
October 21, 2021 at 1:54 pm
” it will be on the final, which will be a combination of multiple choice and essays”
Let me give you the answers – go long technology disruption, WFH is a fad for losers and NYC area real estate is always a great investment. All hail Oz Powell…derrh.
Yes, obviously, my 4 years of complaining about GWB, Hank Paulson, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, 8 years of complaining about Chris Christie, and support of causes like Gay Marriage, favorable trade policies for labor clearly speak volumes to the right winger I supposedly am. Oh…and I’m anti-war as well.
Like I said, I have solar on my home, drive a fuel efficient vehicle, plant hundreds of trees a year. Your roof has tiles, you drive a fuel inefficient vehicle, and do nothing for the environment. But please…tell me more about how you are the environmentalist and I am not.
I personally don’t do squat for the environment.
pumps, the government selecting a technology and investing in it creates a distortion. Are we really making an investment in the future or going down an incorrect path? When the environment cost of installing turbines exceeds the benefits is it positive, should the taxpayer subsidize it? Blindly throwing dollars at things that will not work is foolish. The mirror fields they built out in the desert to the tune of a billion dollars which isn’t used today, solar panels in far northern VT that aren’t really producing very much power, the list goes on.
Pumps: There you go again, commenting about WFH and corporate America, without a fecking clue. If any one comments on teachers you of course say we have no idea, yet you do in our professions. Total lack of self awareness on your part.
Punkin head,
No school today?
I don’t believe you are vaxxed, even though, you said for your age group, it makes sense to get vaxxed.
Does anyone on this blog actually think BRT is not a right winger? I guess I’m the crazy one. He’s not fast eddie, but he surely is not a centrist. He is also now an environmentalist. Okay.
Yes, you are the crazy one
Yet, things like the internet came from said investments.
It’s not a black or white issue. Sometimes you need govt to make the hard investments that business won’t. Too often, people associate any type of govt spending as wasteful. They just automatically assume that the businesses can always do it better which is clearly not the case. How many of these businesses have pissed money away? Nothing is perfect. Nothing…
JCer says:
October 21, 2021 at 2:08 pm
pumps, the government selecting a technology and investing in it creates a distortion. Are we really making an investment in the future or going down an incorrect path? When the environment cost of installing turbines exceeds the benefits is it positive, should the taxpayer subsidize it? Blindly throwing dollars at things that will not work is foolish. The mirror fields they built out in the desert to the tune of a billion dollars which isn’t used today, solar panels in far northern VT that aren’t really producing very much power, the list goes on.
Jcer,
For example. If this anomaly known as Musk did not come along, how long would these car companies milk said investments in the name of easy profit? Thank god Musk came along and forced their hand. I still can’t believe he was able to do that, simply an amazing accomplishment.
Businesses get complacent and chase easy profit. Not many want to forgo profits to grow their company. They don’t like change, but change is needed when it comes to energy.
What more do you want?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-booster-shot-was-95-6-effective-in-large-trial-companies-say-11634823482?mod=hp_lead_pos3
The vaccines are not vaccines at all from the historical standpoint. They are sugar high shots. Miriam Webster was caught trying to update the definition of vaccine and anti vaccine to include these POSes.
If they were good at all for the average healthy person Biden would not have had to go racist and use corporations to do his dirty work.
Fascist
Yup. Been saying this, but you guys just laugh it off.
“Get ready for some rosy home-sales numbers, and get used to the idea that it still won’t be enough. Until America has more homes available for sale, the housing market will look unusually strong in what used to be the slow part of the year without satisfying pent-up demand that has been years in the making.
The National Association of Realtors on Thursday reported that 6.29 million existing, or previously owned, homes were sold in September, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was up from August’s 5.88 million. It counted as the best month since January, when an annualized 6.66 million homes were sold.
Those figures are all, it needs to be re-emphasized, adjusted for seasonal swings. January is usually the weakest month for home sales, so its figures get pushed up. Sales are strongest during the summer months, so they get pushed down. September’s unadjusted existing home sales were about 5% lower than in August but 50% higher than in January.
So before coming to conclusions based on the seasonally adjusted figures, such as how the easing of worries about the Delta variant led to more home sales closing, we should consider how the pandemic has made a mess of the seasonal adjustment process. People might not be following the old house-hunting patterns and, as a result, real-estate agents might be a lot busier in the fall and winter than they were before Covid-19 came along.
The more important takeaway might be that, no matter the season, real-estate agents have been busier than they used to be, with sales higher this year than they were in 2019. And they might be busier still, if there were more houses to sell. At September’s selling pace, there were only 2.4 months of homes on the market. That compares with an average month’s supply of 3.9 in 2019.
For alleviating the supply problems it would be helpful if home builders were putting up more houses. But while busier than before the pandemic, they have been running up against supply-chain problems and labor shortages that have been limiting how many homes they can start building and lengthening the time it takes to complete them.
Nor is it just a matter of the constraints the pandemic has put on construction. The housing-supply problem has been years in the making. The housing bust and 2008 financial crisis left lasting scars that prevented many people from taking the step into homeownership and drove many small builders out of business.
It could take years, too, before supply is adequate to meet demand—a dynamic that could continue to put upward pressure on prices long after builders’ supply-chain and labor woes are resolved.
Get used to some gaudy housing numbers—they will be with us for a while”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-housing-boom-will-keep-builders-and-agents-busy-11634836705?mod=hp_featst_pos4
Esp this part. I keep saying that the pandemic is not the source of this, but no one listens. This has been years in the making and I called it 9 years ago on this very blog.
“Nor is it just a matter of the constraints the pandemic has put on construction. The housing-supply problem has been years in the making. The housing bust and 2008 financial crisis left lasting scars that prevented many people from taking the step into homeownership and drove many small builders out of business.”
Re: “ you are the crazy one”
NO NO NO..I hold that distinction, pumps is merely a dolt.
THIS Whole CO2 thing is moot, once the ice caps melt the earth will be able to adsorb all of the excess CO2 mankind produces. Man adds approx 33 gigatons of CO2 annually to the atmosphere. The earth produces 750 gigatons of CO2 naturally. The small amount we have added has tossed the naturally cycle of production and absorption out of wack. Once the ice caps melt the oceans will absorb more CO2 and there will be more land NEW land available to build strip malls and housing tracts to house the additional unborn 10 billion we will add to the population by then. It”s a win win for commercial and residential real estate.
I’m very much in favor of people voluntarily taking vaccines that will help them.
The reason the Left is so obsessed over mandating vaccines is that it’s a test of their key ethical principle: namely that individuals have no rights and that the perceived good of the collective must override individual freedom. Because once this country accepts their moral principle, there will be nothing stopping government compulsion on any possible area they feel like. And then all individuals will thereafter be the slave of the collective, as represented by collectivists.
No One,
Shouldn’t I have a choice in paying for people that refused the vaccine but ended up in the hospital for 2 months?
You know why there is a labor shortage? Too many people are sick themselves, or are taking care of someone that is. Again, a vaccine would have most likely prevented this, but who cares, right, it’s their right.
We have highly effective vaccines, yet we are still in a pandemic stage of this virus. Why? WTF, can’t selfish pricks just take the jab and do their part to try and end this pandemic? Nah, that’s just too much to ask. God forbid they take a vaccine and try to help end this pandemic.
Pumps : Who are you to label BRT or anyone else? And yes you are crazy.
3b, this is crazy.
Continue to call me crazy if it makes you feel better, but below is the definition of crazy. This vaccine was a god send, yet, people acting like it’s a punishment instead of a privilege. It’s all good until it’s someone in their family dying.
BidenIsTheGOAT says:
October 21, 2021 at 2:36 pm
The vaccines are not vaccines at all from the historical standpoint. They are sugar high shots. Miriam Webster was caught trying to update the definition of vaccine and anti vaccine to include these POSes.
If they were good at all for the average healthy person Biden would not have had to go racist and use corporations to do his dirty work.
Pumps: So you claim BRT is an environmentalist, with the assumptions what would not be qualified to comment, yet you a teacher deem yourself qualified to speak on Corporate jobs/ WFH? Do you see the disconnect, the complete lack of self awareness on your part??
Pumps: I was not referencing that post , just in general.
Pumps – Look at it this way… As Grim has mentioned we have achieved about a 75% vaccination rate. Now compare that to the IQ curve..
73.7% are average or below, however 75.8% are average intelligence and above.
You are to the right of the curve you made it into the 24.2% of the population that have a good grasp of reason. The vast unwashed masses are to the left of it, many struggle with man’s greatest gift which is the application of logic to understand and judge something. The struggle for reason is very real for many. Sure there were debates and fears spread on social media about the vaccine that still we hear about even today. There is however no magic pill in life, but this one is pretty damm close. Something like 400 million shots now and 8,000 deaths due to breakthrough infections and a vast majority of those deaths were the elderly and infirm. Simply incredible odds.
To BRT’s point about the dosage. He is spot on the guidance for children is is now a 1/3 dose. 10 micrograms instead of 30 and smaller needles for the children. Do they really need it? Yes they do. My neighbor’s kid brought it home, and their father is now in the hospital fighting for his life. There are countless stories about children infecting their parents and grandparents. Early on patient Zero in Hackensack Medical in March 2020 spread it to my friend’s husband who was there for surgery, he brought it home and killed his parents with it.
Yes.. I plant trees in areas to increase biodiversity and reduce my carbon footprint. Whackos like you show up at a pipeline, protest, and trash the place. Actions matter, not opinions.
BRT thinks climate change is a hoax. How exactly is he an environmentalist?
You are all over the place, 3b. Anyone can be an environmentalist, but not when they are bashing climate change movement and renewable energy efforts.
Juice,
Amen.
I just have to let it go, because it’s pissing me off on this beautiful day. I just want to return to normal. Sick of wearing a mask and sick of trying to enforce it.
Climate change fascinates me. I think the take-a-way is that the efforts so far as misguided. The Earth itself has heated and cooled over time. Yes, I believe that we need to make changes (i.e. Coal vs Natural gas…and eventually solar) but the worst offenders are not listening to “US” afterall. Go figure. I see the typical pour money into an misguided effort, make people buy things they don’t need, and spotty enforcement.
The reason the Left is so obsessed over mandating vaccines is that it’s a test of their key ethical principle: namely that individuals have no rights and that the perceived good of the collective must override individual freedom.
It’s for the common good and for the good of the group. Just think, when achieved, they’ll be no rac1al and equitable boundaries… we’ll all comply in a cute, atrophic subjugated kind of way.
Conservatives: Learn to value yourself.
Democrats: Learn to value the collective.
Just a short 5000 years ago the sea level was much higher about 3 meters, there were major ice sheet collapses that had nothing do do with man made Co2.
I still cannot help but to think that a divided Country is exactly what the powers that be want. DIVIDE and CONQUER you know. If we were united, we’d organize and realize just how badly we are all being screwed.
3:58 That is a myth. When the red states take more than they produce. Self-reliance is out the window.
Yes, the climate has always been changing, but how many species have survived this change? It would be wise to study and understand our planet.
It’s a weak position to say who cares, the climate has always been changing.
BRT thinks climate change is a hoax. How exactly is he an environmentalist?
Yes, because I have obviously stated numerous times that climate change is a hoax right? You lie and mischaracterize things and what people say. Then you have the nerve to ask people why they are immediately annoyed at you when we respond to you. I know why…you have no memory, therefore, you think you start with a clean slate every day.
I can do that too. Pumps thinks CDC studies and statistics are BS! Oh wait, you actually said that.
Ex: Well said and I have been saying it for years, but it’s getting worse. Keep the little people at each other’s throats while the real problems are ignored.
3:58 That is a myth. When the red states take more than they produce. Self-reliance is out the window.
The bigger question is: What are you doing to contribute to the collective?
Brt,
Okay, I’m wrong, maybe you are a centrist and not against the climate change movement. Just understand that i took the position based on what you have said on here. Again, maybe I was wrong.
Most are right wingers on this board. That’s why they bash teachers and hate their union. Just like you, but then again, maybe you are not a right winger. It just seems like it based on what you post here.
And most people hate me on here because I go against their positions. It is what it is.
Unfortunately, people like attacking each other to make themselves feel better. They like to have people to point the finger at and say that’s the bad guy. It makes them happy as opposed to the truth. My team is the best!! If only we could eliminate the other team. Trump ran on this platform and did a hell of a job uniting the country.
Ex says:
October 21, 2021 at 4:05 pm
I still cannot help but to think that a divided Country is exactly what the powers that be want. DIVIDE and CONQUER you know. If we were united, we’d organize and realize just how badly we are all being screwed.
DWAC – Trumps SPAC 45.50 +35.54 (+356.83%)
IT was at 52 at one point today..and is still trending higher in after hours.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DWAC?qsearchterm=DWAC
4:36 I get up early and spend all day with kids. Been doing that for 17 years. Helped a few get into college and others to enjoy the class I teach. 10 years elementary and 7 plus high school. I’ve given my time and energy in what can be a thankless job. It’s a second career for me. The money is mediocre, the environment taxing, and the ‘prestige’ limited. Yet, there it is. My chosen field.
Not true, you formulate your opinion on your convoluted interpretation of what I post.
BRT,
And do you not do the same?
In an earlier post today, you described me as the following, which I am not. It’s all good though, think what you want.
“Whackos like you show up at a pipeline, protest, and trash the place. Actions matter, not opinions.”
Sometimes that’s the problem with this place. Attack the individual instead of the substance being discussed.
I am guilty of it by labeling BRT. I have thick skin, but sometimes i let it get to me. I will try to be better.
Crack…it’s out of here!
Ex says:
October 21, 2021 at 5:28 pm
4:36 I get up early and spend all day with kids. Been doing that for 17 years. Helped a few get into college and others to enjoy the class I teach. 10 years elementary and 7 plus high school. I’ve given my time and energy in what can be a thankless job. It’s a second career for me. The money is mediocre, the environment taxing, and the ‘prestige’ limited. Yet, there it is. My chosen field.
Pumps: You have zero self- awareness.
Please enlighten us to the countless hours you’ve dedicated to studying the planet’s history.
The Great Pumpkin says:
October 21, 2021 at 4:12 pm
Yes, the climate has always been changing, but how many species have survived this change? It would be wise to study and understand our planet.
Actually, it is like you, because you share their opinions and you spew their nonsense here. But, it’s hilarious how you post about attacking the individual when I post a well thought out evidence based post that cannot be mathematically refuted and you come back and call me a right wing anti vaxxer. Again, I’ve just proven you have no short term memory.
As for your question, how many species have survived to date? Well, 99.99% of all species that have existed are extinct.
Okay.
So please tell me how you came to the conclusion that the odds are “safer” by not taking the vaccine? Do those odds take into account how those individuals spread covid more easily?
You take rare anomalies and try to prove a point with it. You then run victory laps. Based on the odds of suffering the side effect, the big picture says take the vaccine.
BRT says:
October 21, 2021 at 6:49 pm
Actually, it is like you, because you share their opinions and you spew their nonsense here. But, it’s hilarious how you post about attacking the individual when I post a well thought out evidence based post that cannot be mathematically refuted and you come back and call me a right wing anti vaxxer. Again, I’ve just proven you have no short term memory.
Good Morning Everyone! Remember:
Bitcoin is worth 2x JPMorgan
Tesla is worth 3x ExxonMobil
GameStop is worth 12x more than last year.
It’s a new world.
https://twitter.com/grdecter/status/1451163194781802497?s=21
No I don’t. The numbers were clear. On the 2nd shot, 1 in 6000 chance of hospitalization from the vaccine for age 5 to 11. 1 in 10000 chance of hospitalization form Covid for the same age group. Ergo, the vaccine, at it’s current dosage, is more dangerous to children than Covid itself. You are too stupid to realize that those stats are different adults, so adults that haven’t been infected should get vaccinated.
And for the record, especially ages 5 to 11, have shown to not spread covid much. Like I said, there’s an easy solution. Fix the dosing, limit the kids to 1 shot, get the J&J trials up and running ASAP, and actually recognize natural immunity is real. They are behind the curve on all of this. You want to double jab them all right away without the evidence that it’s safe for ages 5 to 11.
A few years old, but something that has a lot more brewing underneath the original story. I study these as a hobby, but this one I never expected. It’s crazy.
http://www.kathrynsreport.com/2021/06/fuel-exhaustion-piper-pa-22-160-n9227d.html
Can we agree that if everyone was vaccinated with pfizer, this pandemic would be over?
NO we cannot agree.
There is only one way to settle the Pumps VS BRT beef..
Pistols at dawn….I know just the place, as honor dictates..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burr%E2%80%93Hamilton_duel
“The reason the Left is so obsessed over mandating vaccines is that it’s a test of their key ethical principle: namely that individuals have no rights and that the perceived good of the collective must override individual freedom.”
This is the typical fodder of populism.
As to NG vs. nuclear vs. fusion. My knowledge admittedly is old and I need to brush up on it. I was lucky enough to tour the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab twice when I was in college and have literally walked inside of nuclear reactors when they were down for maintenance. I was a real energy junky when I was in college. Back then cold fusion was claimed to have occured in a test tube, but no one could repeat the supposed results of the flawed initial claims. At the time, they were shooting Deuterium and Tritium in the tokamak. I hated the idea of Tritium because it was radioactive and could invite the same list of problems that nuclear fission hasn’t resolved. None-the-less, hydrogen was the future. As to the massive energy needed to produce hydrogen, you are correct. But little work has been done in this area. Back in my college days, though it was more sci-fi based, there was talk of mini reactors powering everything. I never really believed it, but felt perhaps some technology would develop around harnessing the explosive power of hydrogen (it’s a lot of energy) much like a turbo uses wasted energy from the exhaust system to force more air into the engine. I think this is much more realistic than cold fusion. Nonetheless, I need to brush up. It’s been nearly half a century since I focused on it. I am probably wrong and willing to admit it.
Phoenix, you study the aviation crash reports?
I used to be fascinated by them. Especially when big birds went down. But the reliability of American maintained heavy birds has been incredible in the past thirty years or so. Besides the MD-80 tail flaps getting stripped from pilots overtesting them in preflight and the MAX issue, it’s been a heck of a run. Outside of the Moriches explosion, I can’t think of a single other crash beside 9/11 of course.
Lib,
The way it’s going the Chinese will solve that problem before America does.
Lib,
I was planning on getting a license until divorce lawyers cratered my bank accounts. Best I will get now is a simulator- probably the only reason I would purchase an X-box.
AOPA videos are interesting to watch. 15-20 minutes, you learn quite a bit.
But that story I posted, just skip and go to the end. It’s far from a run of the mill plane crash. You can work your way back after you read some of the comments or look at the photographs. How she ended up with that guy- I’ll never understand that gender.
Someone doesn’t believe in breakthrough infections
Serious question for you BRT.
What would happen if everyone in the world contained an active dose (figured shot up within the last 6 months) of one of the vaccines? Would this virus go away?
I am not asking you to consider what is safest, smartest or even possible.
BRT,
I believe in them. Still suffering.
Regret is a weird word. I don’t look back on my life like that any more, or use excuses for choices I made [Gahan was technically dead for two minutes following a heroin overdose in 1996]. Good or bad, they have consequences, but I’m leading a pretty blessed life here [in New York]. I just enjoy what I’m doing as much as I can.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/oct/21/dave-gahan-regret-is-a-weird-word-i-dont-look-back-on-my-life-like-that?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Real Estate in NYC when you are David Gahan:
https://observer.com/2009/06/depeche-modes-dave-gahan-sells-4-m-condo-buys-6-m-penthouse/
Not much, the breakthrough rate was extremely high in Israel and Singapore. Waves won’t end until the virus enters each person’s body. Best to be vaccinated recently when that happens. After that’s all done, it will be endemic, just like every other pandemic.
Thanks. I appreciate it.
So what you are really measuring is the risk of the vaccine to your kid vs. the impact having more people vaccinated has on the larger population (and really, we are talking mainly older or those with underlying health issues).
As was the case with Fauci mask madness (claiming they are not effective) when what he should have said is that they are not effective when worn ineffectively or that we should have saved them for front liners. It is possible that keeping it simple and just telling everyone to vaccinate might have been the thought process the government chose to use once again. Of course, politicians always think they are smarter than everyone, but are always first to claim they could not see it coming when so many non-politicians have been screaming it from their rooftops.
Again. Appreciate your opinion.
I think we can eliminate the nearly the entire risk profile of vaccinating children with the right dosing (1 shot, lower dose) or get the adenovirus trials from J&J or Astrazeneca going. Unfortunately, J&J trials have only started now and they ran the children’s trials poorly with respect to dosing regiment. So we are way behind the curve in that regard.
As far as vaccination mandates go, I refuse to believe it’s not about force until the entire administration, FDA, and CDC finally admit that natural immunity is real and requires no vaccination.
It’s worth noting, I have family members that check off multiple boxes on the comorbidity list. They are on immunosuppresants. We’ve always been cautious with them. We already convinced them to get their 3rd shot and they have. I’m previously infected and double jabbed. So’s my wife. My kids were already infected. This whole one size fits all approach mindset doesn’t work.
You Fuk*ers are again forgett*ing and making me very very angry… That is two not one but two “very”
The virus has mutat*ed, you are getting a booster for the old virus. The new va*ccine formulation is 100%, yes 100% effective you TOOLS!!!
Go protest in Washin*gton DC for the NEW vaccine and reject the old one and do it now before it’s too late. BEFORE WE ALL F*UC*KING DIE!!!**
Currently enjoying making Cat Power covers
https://m.youtube.com/results?sp=mAEA&search_query=metal+heart+dave+gahan
Ex says:
October 21, 2021 at 9:02 pm
Regret is a weird word. I don’t look back on my life like that any more, or use excuses for choices I made [Gahan was technically dead for two minutes following a heroin overdose in 1996]. Good or bad, they have consequences, but I’m leading a pretty blessed life here [in New York]. I just enjoy what I’m doing as much as I can
Now this is rough.
“Alec Baldwin has shot and killed a cinematographer on the set of the upcoming Western movie Rust, after a prop firearm he was using for a scene discharged in a tragic accident.”
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Friend of mine is a teamster working on films. He had to cart around Alec Baldwin one evening. Said he was a dick, so he just kept calling him Alex.
Sounds like the beginning of a bad movie. Like, bad enough that it would star Alec Baldwin. RIP Halyna Hutchins
Pure insanity..
Trump’s SPAC now up another $30 a share in after hours. That is 700% since yesterday.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DWAC
Was waiting to see how Trump would profit from his presidency. Well, there it is. Probably going to be a winner based on his rabid fan base. “Truth Social” is the perfect name too to suck in his target audience.
Juice Box says:
October 22, 2021 at 8:03 am
Pure insanity..
Trump’s SPAC now up another $30 a share in after hours. That is 700% since yesterday.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DWAC
Juice,
Remember what I posted yesterday about low interest rates driving dumb money into speculative.
These SPACs should not even be legal. Forget Trump. We are rapidly declining into a third world banana republic.
Was waiting to see how Trump would profit from his presidency.
The guy just keeps generating capital, jobs, industries, business, commerce, trade, sales and distribution while the bloated, bloviated and tumefied leftists s.uck on the generated revenue of the useful, value-added, productive folks. Joe O’Biden couldn’t create a legitimate business if the planet depended on it. Democrats become democrats for the same reason ex hair dressers become house tour guides; hoping to cash a paycheck at the behest of someone else’s leg work.
The guy just keeps generating capital, jobs, industries, business, commerce, trade, sales and distribution which all go bankrupt and get bailed out by your tax dollars.
Libturd,
I knew that was coming and was going to mention I expect responses that were blah, blah, he goes bankrupt and blah blah bullsh1t nonsense. I waited after I sent the message and laughed. How many people work under the Trump organization worldwide? Ask anyone on this forum or in general the setbacks they had organizing anything from a lemonade stand to a global company. My family was in business for 30 years, you have setbacks because you keep trying to innovate and generate. We had 25 people working for us when we sold because my father took his hard-earned dollars, took a chance and created a business. Losers lose because they never try.
I’m only playing with you.
I could care less about HIS Spac though. I think they are all bad. It’s gambling at it’s finest to invest in any of them.
I know you’re toying but the typical response about Trump’s bankruptcies become the only part of the equation by those who hate him. The guy generates f.ucking money.
I hope he comes through.
“Nobody is perfect, least of all US President Joe Biden, but at least his heart is in the right place in getting the economy back up and running. There is much to live up to, especially setting the bar so high on regenerating the economy and fixing the United States’ run-down domestic infrastructure.”
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3152699/how-biden-can-pull-us-economic-miracle-and-secure-his-legacy?utm_source=rss_feed
Also hope he comes through on this.
“I think @POTUS wants his Legacy to be that he launched a Moonshot Project to Cure Cancer. I found it interesting that @CathieDWood talked about the next Head of the FDA needs to be open to Innovation. I believe $ARKG is the most innovative Tool Chest to Cure Cancer.”
https://twitter.com/dilksjay/status/1451531161801461762?s=21
My friend just made 58k in two days on PHUN and DWAC…. 2,564% and cashed out. People making a killing out there, and you guys are wondering how house prices are being supported.