From Patch:
Long Island Home Prices, Sales Dip As Interest Rates Rise
Long Island’s housing prices have finally started to come down from the all-time highs that were set during the summer. But real estate experts say it’s still a good time to sell your home.
The latest data from OneKey Multiple Listing Service shows that the median Nassau home price dropped to $695,000 in September, down $5,000 from August. In Suffolk, prices were down to $550,000 in September, down from $565,00 in August. But both prices are still about 5 percent over where they were at the same time last year.
Both Nassau and Suffolk reached all-time high housing prices in July. Nassau reached a record median sales price of $720,000, and Suffolk was at $575,000.
Prices are still nowhere near their pre-pandemic levels, though. The median sales price in January 2020 was $529,000 in Nassau County and $400,000 in Suffolk.
While prices are up, the number of sales is down. Sales usually slow in the autumn, but there were 1.055 homes sold in Nassau in September, down more than 23 percent from the year before. In Suffolk, there were 1,272 — a drop of more than 21 percent.
first
Something had to give..buyers have dried up mortgage applications are down around 40% Y0Y….
“If both sides of the political can seem to agree that Biden isn’t really in charge . . . Who the heck is?”
The Party. As has been, as will be, on both sides of the aisle. Little reform will happen until their strangleholds are diminished. That was the beauty of DJT…he caused serious fissures…people who play checkers disliked him because he’s an obnoxious asshole. Rs who play chess dislike him because his Party end run is still being felt these days…from blown GA Senate seats (giving both chambers to the Ds) to unseating Establishment figures like Cheney and Bush…
Funniest (saddest?) experience is meeting with a new Congressman in District on their first break…at home there is pomp and circumstance, import, parade marshalling, headline news coverage, they are one of 535 people out of hundreds of millions running the country!
They hit DC and they are told they are lower than a freshman frat rushee, pure dog vomit…they are told how to vote, what to do, and if they don’t, they cease to exist. Amazing some aren’t actually suicidal. Anyone who lasts that gamut for an extended period is seriously compromised. The Parties need to go.
“I am offering this resolution, that the committee direct the chairman to issue a subpoena for relevant documents and testimony, under oath, from Donald John Trump, in connection with the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol”
LOL, spoiled daddy’s little girl brat throwing a last hissy fit emblematic of a five year old rolling on the floor after her favorite toy was taken away and not even daddy could protect her.
“…now Traitor Tot claims his brothers defence. “I am that dumb…how could he ever be held accountable for signing off as an executive of the firm.”
Speaking with first hand real world experience (as opposed with phantasmal TDS) it would be highly unusual for a senior executive not in the Finance vertical to have any direct involvement with the preparation of the financial statements at any sizable corporation. A frightening number have not even looked at them, despite the company being the vast majority of their extensive wealth, and even fewer would understand them if they did…forget preparing them lol.
“Some of you will never be cool.”
This statement says more about you than the last ten years of your accumulated posts combined.
This statement says more about you than the last ten years of your accumulated posts combined.
It’s remarkable… and concerning.
All three of my WS appearances in 2001 were in Arizona.
Fabius Maximus says:
October 13, 2022 at 11:38 pm
I never knew this. Last time I saw him he was ripping my heart out on the mound at Yankee Stadium stadium in 2001.
A family friendly Halloween drag show… you know, for the children.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1580065815059046400
Any questions?
No you’ve proven you are a complete imbecile Gary. Thanks!
While the Republicans are burning all of those
books they can’t read, they should toss the Constitution
onto the fire. They haven’t any use for that outdated paper.
UK govt is a wreck. Empirical evidence that maybe we ain’t so bad.
https://apnews.com/article/business-london-financial-markets-liz-truss-b64e94dc4b89d330f48dc43e63cddca8
Buggy whips
Icebox
Phone books
Video rentals
Encyclopedias
Typewriters
Carbon paper
NEA
For anyone piggybacking my VIX position through the puts I suggested yesterday they are 4.80×4.90…that’s 0.70….you’re up 17% in less than 24 hours…
I exit when that happens…as always, you do you, but I’m no longer going to be involved…be aware that while they could very well go to 6.00 next week, near term expiration seriously limits your options…GL All…
Ex: I believe the left is into book banning as well, such as To Kill a Mockingbird. The crazies on both sides are destroying this country.
Banning Books? How 19th century…
Kids today have an entire planet of horror, gore and filth at their fingertips..
I probably wouldn’t believe the news except that it lands right at my feet almost every night now. Road rage injuries. Jumpers. Stabbing and gunshots.
Need to get some modafinil and just work 40 hrs straight.
I remember a few years ago the Hasidim tried to ban smartphones, they were protesting outside stores that were selling them, the store owner was Hasidic lol!!
They are still trying to ban them even today.
https://apnews.com/article/technology-middle-east-jerusalem-israel-1c084054f887a4605abdc0ecf540e5fa
Banning Books? How 19th century…
banning speech with moderators. A tad more modern.
Lw
thank you for the gift you provided even though I was at work and couldn’t do it. I need to get an app on my phone.
And thank you to Stu as well for his invite. I have to work on his timeslot and cannot attend or I would. Well, recently it looks like they are considering putting an immature unskilled person in my scheduling department. I might become a day shift worker after all.
3b says:
October 14, 2022 at 9:59 am
“The crazies on both sides are destroying this country.”
This is simply not true. The radical right is a miniscule element, with absolutely zero impact on any of our major institutions. The radical left has ‘owned’ institutions such as academia for decades, and within the past twenty or so years has successfully infiltrated and trashed institutions ranging from mainstream media to the FBI. And as for our political parties, the Dems and the radical left are now essentially indistinguishable, to the point where the radicals have successfully installed their Manchurian candidate as president.
Rarely do I wish ill will on anyone but I sincerely hope that whomever/whatever is most precious to these two is utterly and horribly destroyed causing them unimaginable and immeasurable misery, and then I wish they suffer the worst pain possible through some horrible, incurable, elongated cancer.
The Left are freaks.
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1580871986795843584
The national debt under President Trump increased from $20,244,900,016,053 to $27,751,896,236,415
That’s $5.138 billion a day.
In less than one term, the debt under Trump’s presidency increased more than $7.5 trillion.
We need to create safe spaces for public outrage and destruction as a form of meaningful expression.
Elon Musk said he cannot afford to keep funding Starlink satellites – that have proved vital for Ukraine in defending itself against Russia, raising fears he may cut support to the systems, hindering the war effort
Now that’s a new one. Elon running out of money.
Elon tries to do a good thing by calling for end to war and now they are trying to throw him under the bus on social media with lots of misinformation about what it costing to support his Starlink efforts in Ukraine to provide them with a secure ubiquitous way to wage their warfare for the west. Do any of these social media keyboard warriors even realize what is going on here? His tech is changing the tide of this war.
The drones we see lots of videos targeting tanks from far away would not work otherwise, the drones even have thermal vision at night, the drones connect through Starlink to the artillery emplacements with coordinates and live video to create target acquisition, making what would normally be inaccurate artillery fire deadly accurate.
This was called out early on about Ukraine’s Howitzers, they are slow loading and inaccurate. They faced off a huge Russian force in the beginning of the war 100,000 troops and 1,200 tanks. They would not have been able to push them back like they have without Elon’s tech, they needed to be able to fire and move quickly otherwise for every for every salvo they fired the Russians would have returned 10 to 15 salvos back. They Ukrainians have been able to destroy and estimated 2500 Russian tanks and over 1500 artillery pieces. That would not have been possible without the accurate targeting that Starlink helps provide.
Very Stable: You should take a look at what the Washington Post says about Biden’s so called deficit reductions. I will sum it up for you, it ain’t true. Jose Biden is spending just like Trump.
If I were the ruskies, and wanted to eff up the world’s economy like America has chosen to do mine, I’d send a rocket into space with a billion steel balls and detonate it wiping every satellite out for miles.
Now that would jam up the logistics just a tad.
“We need to create safe spaces for public outrage and destruction as a form of meaningful expression.”
Isn’t this the mission statement on the masthead of NJRER?
Juice: I think the west is going to have to inform Ukraine, that Crimea is a no go area for them. They are going to have to let that go.
Juice: I think the west is going to have to inform Ukraine, that Crimea is a no go area for them. They are going to have to let that go.
Good luck telling a fighter who is winning, that they need to throw the fight. They are going to look at us, smile and say “ok boss”. Then walk back into the middle of the ring and beat the other guy to death.
The west can no longer put that back into the bottle. They’ll slowly start to withdraw arms shipments, and support, but it probably won’t matter. If Ukraine was not only willing to send a soldier to commit a suicide bombing, but specifically sanction that, we’re long past the point we can control this.
Third time this morning SPX testing 3615…she breaks that and holds next stop today is around 3540….
Last four Fridays all down over 1%….
Grim: Good analysis, but the Russians will never give up Crimea , even if Putin is overthrown. If this war is going to end without “Armageddon “ then the Ukrainians will have to back off on Crimea.
Jamie Dimon says no soft landing for US economy.
Off to the salt mines. Someone has to try and reassemble the damage in America’s society one human at a time.
Please try to be nice to each other for today. It’s been a long week, I could use a break.
Toodles.
3B and Grim – The diplomats have been at it for 9 years now and a larger war has broken out, where tens of thousands are now dying instead of about 1,800 a year over the last 9 years. It could be another 9 years before it’s ever settled regardless of who claims to be the winner. The fighters don’t make decisions, they will have to live with whatever the powers that be decide. That won’t be just Russia and Ukraine either, the EU, US and others will push for a cease fire eventually and perhaps years of back and forth skirmishes will continue to break out. For now both sides have committed to perhaps another year of full on conflict and tens of thousands of more dead. There will come a point where to price in blood and treasure is too much for either side.
ARKK is below their 2020 lows
Juice: No diplomatic solution to Crimea, in my view the Russians simply won’t give it up, and if the Ukrainians make a serious effort to retake it, then the possibility of the Russians using nukes is real in my view.
Chicago,
Too bad, Kwasi Kwarteng in my brief introduction to his past work sounded like a smart guy, knowing important facets of economic policy history. Would have done better in a Thatcher cabinet. Today, the political process doesn’t allow for long term thinking, but rather favors somone to slap a giant mound of band-aids on ever-growing, ever-festering wounds. Seems like he and Truss massively underpromoted their vision in advance of delivering it. Or maybe they just got unlucky in that they delivered their plans right in the middle of a global rate volatility surge, coinciding with a dumb leveraged derivative scheme blowing up in UK pension plans, which their political opponents within and without their party all eagerly blamed on Truss and Kwarteng.
3B – They simply don’t have the weapons to take it back RIGHT NOW and we won’t give it to them either. The Russians are firing about 20,000 shells a day of dumb munitions, the estimates are they have huge stockpiles and can keep up these artillery barrages for perhaps years to come, even if they don’t have enough conventional dumb shells they can make allot more they just need to ramp up production.
There is a comparison between industrial difficulties during World War II as production of ammo ramps up. First year you run out of ammo, second year not so much, by the third year almost all you want and by the fourth year way way more than you need.
Same is true for the both sides right now production is ramping up. Lets see how much treasure both sides are will to spend to go along with the casualties before they call a ceasefire.
BRT,
Wow ARKK is below its price 5 years ago.
They were to 2020 what Janus was to 1999.
Overconfidence plus incompetence is a dangerous mix.
Dunning-Kreuger effect.
“Overconfidence plus incompetence is a dangerous mix.”
Sounds like a familiar poster here who hangs out in the Pumpkin Patch.
11:30 or Foot Locker stores in major cities.
Brexiters, Reaganomics, Truss and Kwarteng have successfully rendered UK irrelevant.
Trump caliber geniuses in need of an IMF bailout.
I am amazed by you. You are the poster boy for “own your own mistakes.” Yet, here you are blaming cathie wood for people that were up huge and did not sell. That’s on them, not her. They rode the cycle, but held on because they are GREEDY. How much more money did they want? Was an incredible run from 2014-2021. Now they have to wait for the next cycle.
Her strategy doesn’t get to change with the economic cycle, or adjust to changes in rates. The strategy is focused on trying to invest in the massive change happening in the economy. She will win again, when the cycle and rates align. If you don’t have patience or tolerance for risk, you should not be investing in disruptive tech. Disruptive tech investment is not for the faint of heart….it’s not for people that have to look at their stock portfolio on a daily basis. If you can’t handle seeing your investment down 50%, then get the f/k out of investing in such a volatile and risky field.
It takes years, and sometimes decades to see the return when you invest in disruptive tech. When it comes, you f/ing sell, and then wait for the cycle to do it again.
Same chit with real estate. It’s all a cycle. If you bought at a peak, it happens. Don’t sit there and cry about the now. If you have patience, real estate will only go up over time. So what if you f/ed up with the previous cycle. Patience is a virtue when it comes to investing.
Expecting to always invest at exactly the right time isn’t realistic. Getting crazy and overreacting emotionally to a bad timing investment is why most people are not investors and always lose money. It’s a long game, and just because you chit the bed in the first inning doesn’t mean you have to quit the game and sell.
No One says:
October 14, 2022 at 12:25 pm
BRT,
Wow ARKK is below its price 5 years ago.
They were to 2020 what Janus was to 1999.
Overconfidence plus incompetence is a dangerous mix.
Dunning-Kreuger effect.
Iran enters Ukraine. Looking more like WW3!
Pumpkin,
You are thicker than a Blizzard.
All your Goddess did was make baskets of the highest risk names in various tech sectors. She completely ignores fundamentals and completely shoots from the hip. She is no Wizard of Wall Street. She is more like the Hero of the Stupid. You don’t need to pay Kathie’s fees to perform similarly. You too can play roulette with your money.
Do you realize how silly you sound?
You are pretty much saying, everything goes up and down in cycles. I must immediately alert the Nobel Foundation.
What a brilliant fund manager does is leave you with the highest amount of value over the lifetime of a fund. You don’t measure their success based on the range of the fund. That’s one of the silliest things you’ve ever said.
Since the start of ARKK, Cathie Wood has now returned 69%, BRK-A 93% and QQQ 125%.
Right there is all you need to know.
On the bright side, my investment property investment as measured against an investment in SPY is getting closer to beating the index by the day.
Robbie Coltrane died. He was great in Cracker
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11316815/Harry-Potter-Cracker-star-Robbie-Coltrane-dies-aged-72.html
Her strategy doesn’t get to change with the economic cycle, or adjust to changes in rates.
Dude, it’s a managed ETF, that’s the whole point, keyword being “managed”. If you wanted one devoid of change, you opt for indexes or sectors.
All of here changes and brilliance resulted in half the return of the index most of her names are in.
Disruptive tech. Disruptive to your ability to retire at a normal age perhaps.
Of course the key start point for ARKK was when Pumpkin first started hyping it. He never heard of it 5 years ago, but at the top was vowing to dollar cost into it for the years, because it was such a no-brainer winning investment. Now he tries to rewrite history and imagine that he owned it on the way up, and would have sold at the top. Literally the opposite of everything he said in real time! Someone willing to advance search the site for his quotes could create a great annotated chart of his Crameresque calls.
She absolutely knocked it out of the park last cycle. Why do you think she became so famous? No one outperformed her in the last cycle…it’s a fact. For people that didn’t sell after that run, that’s on them. There will be another run if the ETF continues to exist. It’s just a matter of time…
This not a retirement fund. This is a high risk fund and it is advertised as such.
Libturd says:
October 14, 2022 at 1:47 pm
Pumpkin,
You are thicker than a Blizzard.
All your Goddess did was make baskets of the highest risk names in various tech sectors. She completely ignores fundamentals and completely shoots from the hip. She is no Wizard of Wall Street. She is more like the Hero of the Stupid. You don’t need to pay Kathie’s fees to perform similarly. You too can play roulette with your money.
BRT,
Again, it’s a high risk fund and it is advertised as such. You are not supposed to be using this ETF for 50% of your wealth. Maybe 5-10%. It’s adding hot sauce to your portfolio.
I had no problem buying on the way down. I would have no problem buying at current pricing. Problem is, better opportunity out there with DNA and crypto like ETH and XRP.
No One says:
October 14, 2022 at 2:08 pm
Of course the key start point for ARKK was when Pumpkin first started hyping it. He never heard of it 5 years ago, but at the top was vowing to dollar cost into it for the years, because it was such a no-brainer winning investment. Now he tries to rewrite history and imagine that he owned it on the way up, and would have sold at the top. Literally the opposite of everything he said in real time! Someone willing to advance search the site for his quotes could create a great annotated chart of his Crameresque calls.
Picked up some more SPX exposure…my main portfolio is moving with the market at about 75%, ie. I’m up or down three quarters of the market move. A good slug of that is VIX rolling in Nov and Dec. Near term exposure that will be adjusted shortly…
That is with about 70% cash…nice reserve if she falls off a cliff to pile in then…
At somewhere around SPX 3200 I would start to lock in 1:1 losses as if I were fully invested assuming I made no adjustments, not a realistic assumption lol.
Torn, was pulling for continued declines but now I’m actually vested in market upside…
Lib, not happy I’m doing SPX for several reasons…mostly, not enough time to work individual and other names…I’ll be looking at your drawings over the weekend, think I want to start legging into some NDX exposure. May get a text or two from me.
Sure.
I’ve been looking at ETFs for the bottom. In the high rate environment, I really like Small Cap. Found a Small Cap Value ETF I think I’m going to run with in VBR. I know it’s not your style, but I think it will be a sweet little safe spot soon. Still looking for individual names. Though, it’s still way too soon IMO.
March 2020 to Jan 2021 was bad data. All those gains, erased, it was never real my friend.
Hahaha, since he hasn’t posted recently I thought maybe he had some meds kicking in so I started reading his post…got about halfway through and stopped when he starts lecturing about ‘how markets work’…lol…I use analogies frequently here…I’ve racked my brain, and cannot come up with one so ridiculous to illustrate being lectured by the Fool on ‘how markets work’….
“Brexiters, Reaganomics, Truss and Kwarteng have successfully rendered UK irrelevant.”
Most of the best countries to live, all-in, are those countries that are ‘irrelevant’.
The Nordic countries, most ‘minor’ countries on the Continent, Australia, etc are wonderful places.
‘Relevant’ countries? Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, US are for the most part shit shows.
Maybe someone on the Left can explain what deep seated insecurities drive their continual need to be the ‘biggest’, the ‘best’, and ‘respected on the world stage’, ie relevant.
Quiet obscurity is indescribably delicious.
When ARKK was at 120, she proclaimed “I love this setup”. She really thought she was buying a small dip before another meteoric rise. So did you. It’s very hard, in fact, near impossible to manage a portfolio down 75% in this time frame if it’s unleveraged and holding assets. She did it.
It’s funny, your time window that you want to reference keeps changing every time it goes further down.
“Why do you think she [CW] became so famous?”
She was an obscure, undersized manager who made an entirely irresponsible outsized binary bet on TSLA based on event that could not be known or evaluated (share price at convert maturity). TSLA at the time was a huge cult favorite and as that gamble – not investment, but throw of the dice – hit newbies and rubes proclaimed her genius and threw money at her which she promptly threw into a wheelbarrow and set on fire.
“Since the start of ARKK, Cathie Wood has now returned 69%, BRK-A 93% and QQQ 125%.”
And that does not come close to capturing how badly she performed as the risk she took on was wildly greater than any of the above securities, ie. with higher risk she needs to be returning more than these securities, not just matching them.
“It’s very hard, in fact, near impossible to manage a portfolio down 75%…”
And aside from the math, anyone who has spent appreciable time in the markets knows that securities priced (brought public) at the top of the market and then fall out of bed never recover…when the markets re-open new companies come out and that is where the institutional money goes, no one serious goes dumpster diving for years old rancid leftovers…I’ve given a dozen examples from prior peaks, while there may be some dead cat bounces for her companies the pathway for these peak priced cash flow negative speculative companies are takeunder M&A at less than their IPO prices, let alone relative to their peaks.
I dare her to post her cost basis in the garbage she holds…
She made money because of a once in a century event…the national bank gave away money for free. If your thesis is to invest on the basis of a 100 year event, go for it. Otherwise, let’s have her slither away to the same obscurity where her shit-co, top of market investments will inevitably reside.
The guy who blew up the truck on the bridge worked for a shipping company. An unwitting accomplice. Collateral damage I suppose.
chi, wish I could do something like a VBR….maybe if we get an actual crash I will…right now I want situations with liquid option chains…that SPX position I put on before close?
Although it will mark to market up and down, the breakeven is below 3200…meaning at maturity in 2023 I have no losses until 3200, and I take 100% profit above that level up to about a 45% return for 15 months…
I just can’t find any straight equity investments with that type of risk/reward profile in a declining/flat market…take the SPX down abruptly to 2800? Yeah, I could see going balls deep on some equities….
At this point, we are likely past the halfway point of the correction. This is where you will have a hard time losing in the long run on any sensible market investment, unless America is over, which it most likely is not. By sensible, I mean value or index ETF. I think the flavor of value will be around for a while this time too. Probably see dividends increase as a stimulus for purchase, so look for companies with a history of raising them regularly.
Though, still not seeing blood in the streets. Not even a trickle, yet. It’ll be coming, and right on my expected timeline.
I bet Germany is learning something from this embarrassing debacle.
Very Stable Genius says:
October 14, 2022 at 1:02 pm
Brexiters, Reaganomics, Truss and Kwarteng have successfully rendered UK irrelevant.
Trump caliber geniuses in need of an IMF bailout.
It happens. No one knew the Fed would go this hard. Don’t say it was obvious. I’m not being a d’k, but how many of the bears were wrong from 2009 to 2021? Every f’ing year they were wrong. Now, because of a pandemic, they go run their victory laps on bulls like cathie. Get a life. Busting her balls for a rate environment not seen in decades and that was more aggressive than volker. Went from 2% rates to almost 7 in a f’ing year.
BRT says:
October 14, 2022 at 4:02 pm
When ARKK was at 120, she proclaimed “I love this setup”. She really thought she was buying a small dip before another meteoric rise. So did you. It’s very hard, in fact, near impossible to manage a portfolio down 75% in this time frame if it’s unleveraged and holding assets. She did it.
It’s funny, your time window that you want to reference keeps changing every time it goes further down.
If it was so easy, why didn’t you do it? Get out of here with this bs.
“She made money because of a once in a century event…the national bank gave away money for free. If your thesis is to invest on the basis of a 100 year event, go for it. Otherwise, let’s have her slither away to the same obscurity where her shit-co, top of market investments will inevitably reside.”
Dude, get a clue. Disruptive investing is all a gamble. Wtf do you think it is? That it’s run on fundamentals? Get real.
You are good at trading and the short term. You are not an investor of disruptive innovation. It’s all good. You don’t have to hate what you don’t like.
leftwing says:
October 14, 2022 at 4:25 pm
“Why do you think she [CW] became so famous?”
She was an obscure, undersized manager who made an entirely irresponsible outsized binary bet on TSLA based on event that could not be known or evaluated (share price at convert maturity). TSLA at the time was a huge cult favorite and as that gamble – not investment, but throw of the dice – hit newbies and rubes proclaimed her genius and threw money at her which she promptly threw into a wheelbarrow and set on fire.
If everyone invested like you and LIB, there would be no innovation. There would be no growth. You are too scared to lose money. It’s all good though, thank the cathie wood or musks of the world for doing it for you.
5:56 The world needs suckers too.
Seriously, if you’re happy. That’s all that matters.
That and gAinZ
What’s funny? You guys call yourselves capitalists. Yet, you are scared to take any type of risk with your investments. That’s the bread and butter of capitalism. People took big risks and were told over and over how foolish they were, yet, these are the big winners in the game of capitalism that help everyone else. Thank god some people have the balls to take risks.
Elon Musk took every single penny from paypal and put it all on the line again. You guys would have never ever done that. He was already set for life.
My point; don’t call yourself a capitalist and mock the risk takers as fools. That’s fine if you don’t take risks, but don’t mock the people that do.
Personally, I am going to invest in high growth/disruptive/high risk. Why?…Because I see that we are on a collision course with massive change. There is no way I am going to miss this kind of opportunity. Have to be at the right time and place, and we are there.
I don’t care if the Fed has to beat up the economy in the short-term. All I know is I want a piece of this massive innovation that is upon us.
The 2000 bubble gave rise to the internet.
The 2008 bubble gave rise to mobile phones & the app economy.
The 2022 bubble will give rise to mass crypto adoption, the golden age of AI, and a revolution in synthetic bio manufacturing.
I took plenty of risk, I shorted her portfolio for 11 months
You realize it was predicted by us that the fed would be forced to raise rates which would in turn her entire portfolio. That’s why I called it a ticking time bomb.
No doubt about it, you guys nailed it. Props for that. Wish I listened. I didn’t believe inflation would get this bad, and paid the price. Supply chains f’ed me because I never saw it coming. It set off a move against globalization that absolutely led to the inflation we are dealing with now. Also, I never thought Russia would invade Ukraine. Those are my mistakes and I own them. Cost me like 8k to learn it the hard way.
At the end of the day, acknowledge that her funds were the canary in the coal mine. The entire market was a ticking time bomb. There was not an investment that wasn’t a ticking time bomb. Some of those investments still haven’t blown up yet, but they will if the Fed continues.
BRT says:
October 14, 2022 at 6:28 pm
You realize it was predicted by us that the fed would be forced to raise rates which would in turn her entire portfolio. That’s why I called it a ticking time bomb.
BRT: The risk was brewing for a decade, artificially low rates, quantitative easing, market manipulation etc, artificial low rates destroys economies, massive screw up by the Fed, and now the massive excess has to be cleaned up with higher, which are actually just normal rates. It’s never different.
TGP,
I shit you not, in 2020 and again in 2021 my family thought I was crazy with every announcement of unneeded stimulus. I wouldn’t stop screaming about the coming inflation.
“No one knew”
Yet every single time, we did! You can’t give the average family in America 12K when the median GROSS income is $67,000. Especially on top of a shortage of ICs.
Here is a valuable lesson for a history teacher. NEVER LISTEN TO THE GOVERNMENT. They are the most dishonest people on Earth.
Whether it’s Barney Frank saying Sallie Mae was secure. Or Fauci saying masks don’t work. Or Powell saying inflation is transitory. Or Trump simply opening his mouth. It is likely to be complete bullshit. So when they say, “we didn’t know.” They mean, we knew, but chose this path. Teach that to your kids. They might start appreciating you. Especially, since they already know.
3B, BRT,
” artificially low rates, quantitative easing, market manipulation”
This is why we aren’t near the bottom. If it was high rates only, then maybe. But certainly not with the trillions coming off the treasury balance sheets. A lot of people think we have reverted to the mean. The mean did not have 7% mortgage payments, 10% car loans and 24% credit card interest. And I would venture to say that the further we go in time, the more debt the average person is servicing. So getting back to the mean isn’t quite good enough. There is a huge difference between QE and Unloading assets in a market that that doesn’t want them. Higher bank reserves too. It’s just a giant recipe for ugliness. But WE DIDN”T KNOW.
Pumps: no one has 10x the track record. You have no idea who you are talking to.
Kneel before zod.
The Great Pumpkin says:
October 14, 2022 at 1:29 pm
I am amazed by you. You are the poster boy for “own your own mistakes.” Yet, here you are blaming cathie wood for people that were up huge and did not sell.
Why the cash drag? 6M T-Bill yields 433
leftwing says:
October 14, 2022 at 3:34 pm
Picked up some more SPX exposure…my main portfolio is moving with the market at about 75%, ie. I’m up or down three quarters of the market move. A good slug of that is VIX rolling in Nov and Dec. Near term exposure that will be adjusted shortly…
That is with about 70% cash…nice reserve if she falls off a cliff to pile in then…
I understand the hate for Cathie wood. I do. Problem is, look at facebook for example, was at a high of 384 and is now at 126. Tells you all you need to know about the entire market. It’s not a cathie wood problem, but a market issue. She was in a high risk/high reward strategy; when the Fed was supporting she was winning and when the Fed took a bat to the head of the economy, she got killed.
Over night, the whales went from supporting investment in innovation/high growth to safe investments that produced cash. That’s the story here. The Fed forced their hand. Created an environment where the cost of money increased significantly, destroying the pipeline of capital that fueled said investment in innovation. It’s no longer easy to lose money and have access to more. Plain and simple.
I have respect for him. Not attacking him or coming from a position of superiority. I just think he lacks appreciation for individuals like cathie wood that fuel innovation with their ability to collect capital and put it to work where majority would not.
Chicago says:
October 14, 2022 at 8:22 pm
Pumps: no one has 10x the track record. You have no idea who you are talking to.
Kneel before zod
Lib – re: “with the trillions coming off the treasury balance sheets. ”
You mean trillions on the treasury balance sheet and trillions (more) on the Fed’s Balance sheet too.
There is only one way to deal with the unfunded liabilities. Print…
As I have stated they expect 2 Trillion more in tax collection in perhaps the next three years..Good luck with that.
Wait the CBO estimates arrive.
I’m not saying you didn’t know, but acknowledge it took a pandemic to achieve this. Fed would have been sailing away enjoying the breeze right now if not for the pandemic shutting off the world economy. My roaring 20’s prediction would have been gold. Look at how strong the economy is—-look at the inflation. Now imagine if the pandemic didn’t happen.
Libturd says:
October 14, 2022 at 7:39 pm
3B, BRT,
” artificially low rates, quantitative easing, market manipulation”
This is why we aren’t near the bottom. If it was high rates only, then maybe. But certainly not with the trillions coming off the treasury balance sheets. A lot of people think we have reverted to the mean. The mean did not have 7% mortgage payments, 10% car loans and 24% credit card interest. And I would venture to say that the further we go in time, the more debt the average person is servicing. So getting back to the mean isn’t quite good enough. There is a huge difference between QE and Unloading assets in a market that that doesn’t want them. Higher bank reserves too. It’s just a giant recipe for ugliness. But WE DIDN”T KNOW.
Lib: Of course we knew!! Well some knew, and had been warming for years this is where we were heading, even away from pandemic spending.
The horse is dead and buried already stop digging it up to beat it. For some investment that was only a few grand I fail to see the purpose of even talking about it. Look I held lots of investments that DID NOT pan out. Same for everyone here.
Move on already…..There are better ways to spend your time and money we all know that..
Don’t make me beg!!! Again!!!
Juice,
I’m not even invested in it. I just defend the idea that Cathie serves a purpose in our economy. We need people like her that focus on investing in solving problems rather than sitting back and collecting. I will defend her for this reason. She provides valuable capital to companies that are long-shots, but some will change our world for the better.
No she doesn’t, she buys their stock.
When the line between stock markets and venture capital looks blurry, it’s a bad sign for stock markets.
That’s the problem. Easy capital resulted in a market that had no choice but to invest in high growth risk. Retail became venture capitalists.
No One says:
October 14, 2022 at 10:17 pm
When the line between stock markets and venture capital looks blurry, it’s a bad sign for stock markets.
Ark is as close to a venture capitalist ETF as you are going to get.
Lefty pointed out that those companies that peaked will die. I agree, that’s why ark is actively managed. Their winners in the next cycle might not even be on the radar yet, or even exist. It’s not about the companies in the etf, but the sector itself. Right now, conditions are horrible for disruptive tech, but that will change as will the companies that lead the next cycle.
I have no doubt in my mind that DNA is a future leader in disruptive tech. Only a matter of time. Management is top notch. Jason kelly is someone i will put my money on all day every day.
Guy knocked it out of the park. Got funding at the top of the cycle and now is buying tech and competition at pennies on the dollar from money financed at the peak. Absolutely knocked it out of the park. Wow. Just wow.
This cycle has once again proven that valuations don’t mean much both on the way up (euphoria) and on the way down (despair).
When Fed is easy, multiples become bloated and when Fed is tight, the markets overshoot to the downside.
Liquidity drives markets, end of story.
If you ever lost money investing….i fought the Fed and the Fed won!
Playing off of I fought the law and the law won.
Ark is as close to a venture capitalist ETF as you are going to get.
I spend a lot of time with seed round and series a startups. I get what you are trying to say, but it’s so far from reality that it doesn’t even make sense. It’s also entirely antithetical to how a VC would invest.
Let’s see your buy/sells with price to know you put your money where your mouth is…
I picked up 6m bond at over 4 percent. Happy to allocate a little there. Also a 2 year over 4 percent. $VTI around 180 isn’t terrible to start averaging in, so bought some there too. 401k left on auto pilot as I’m far from retirement.
Grim,
Yea, I know it’s not close to a venture capital investment, but it’s the closest thing on the public market in terms of high risk/high reward. A lot of the companies they invest in will fail, and the few winners will carry all the weight.
Mike,
As for me, my biggest position is cash right now. I am building an arsenal that will be deployed into stocks/crypto and then residential real estate as residential real estate usually bottoms 12-18 months after the stock market bottoms. If no bargains ever come to local real estate, will just stick with stocks.
Is Pumpkin buying big into DNA at $2.59 per share? Or, waiting for a lower price?
I love the price, but i am not buying anything right now. Waiting to see what happens when the market breaks. Hold a small position in ETH -2 eths. Have 5k shares of DNA. Will add significantly to both when the time comes.
Guys, to echo JB a bit, why?
You are trying to debate someone who purchased AARK at the top. And vociferously defended the valuation ALL THE WAY DOWN. That was while everyone here – not one of us, not two of us, but most of us – told him not to.
Someone here who cares more can search for his exact entry price but he topped ticked it…and what you will see in that discussion is that he literally did not understand the relationship between rates and valuations. Was clueless. Still is, look at his ‘analysis’ above and the garbage he posts…it is the knowledge level of some young twenty-something on tik-tok or twitter…which is where he gets the cut-and-paste garbage he pukes out here.
I mean as a grown man recently he threw money at and defended penny stocks…do you really want financial discussions on here to go back to those days? Weeks and weeks of us putting forward common sense a first year finance student would know while he argues nonsense all day long supporting something so obviously offsides?
The man did not understand the relationship between rates and valuation…this is the person you are trying to discuss investments with….smh.
3b, how many days are we?
chi, yeah, old school…’cash and cash equivalents’. Although I’ll need to look, I’m not getting that rate. And cash in the IRA is obviously actual cash, no margin there…
Left,
Hate all you want. Doesn’t phase me.
Why do you act like I went all in with a single purchase at the top? That’s pure propaganda in your attempt to belittle me.
I stand by my position on ark said in the past. I would have no problem DCA’ing lomg-term into it from the peak on the way down. It will be a winner again in time when next bull market hits and the fed pivots. So give it a rest.
The reason I am still not buying it is because better opportunities came along. I don’t see how you can lose with ETH or DNA right now. The upside is immense. So rather put my money into what I see as major upside growth potential.
Comedy gold!
SmallGovConservative says:
October 14, 2022 at 10:23 am
3b says:
October 14, 2022 at 9:59 am
“The crazies on both sides are destroying this country.”
This is simply not true. The radical right is a miniscule element, with absolutely zero impact on any of our major institutions. The radical left has ‘owned’ institutions such as academia for decades, and within the past twenty or so years has successfully infiltrated and trashed institutions ranging from mainstream media to the FBI. And as for our political parties, the Dems and the radical left are now essentially indistinguishable, to the point where the radicals have successfully installed their Manchurian candidate as president.
That penny stock from 2013 is still alive. It wasn’t a scam, it was a failed attempt at a business. So what if it lost, it happens. I purchased the product, enjoyed it, and saw potential in it. So I invested in it. Too bad they ran into problems with manufacturing partners that f’ed them by pulling out of contracts for said reasons.
Stop painting the picture that I was invested in multiple penny stocks when it was one.
“I mean as a grown man recently he threw money at and defended penny stocks”
The posterboys for VC right now are the guys on the All in Podcast. Chamath, David Sachs, David Frieberg, and Jason Calacanis. These guys talk about their investments all the time, they are in on the groundlevel, do IPO/SPAC, then dump it onto the public. They even did it with sh1tcoins like Solana. The formula is the same, they make their money, 1000%, investors who buy later on lose 90-100%.
When Virgin Galactic went public via SPAC, Chamath sold out as soon as he could. Cathie bought it up for ARKX. I said at the time, one person here is the Shark, one’s the fish.
Last thought before I head out to the water on this beautiful warm sunny day…
I see many references to ‘how high rates are getting’…I understand for many of us that is shorthand for the recent rate of change but I’ve also noticed that reference regarding historical rates in the absolute…
Grab the link below, making sure you select ‘Max’ for timeframe if it doesn’t default there. Each of us can draw our own line but the anomaly is 2009-2020…not now. Now is simply normalization to historical levels.
The government over a decade created so much free money we ran out of things to spend it on…literally, there were so many dollars available for free we started making up things to buy…we created fake money (crypto) to buy, we created hundreds of fake companies (SPACs) to buy, we created fake art (NFTs) to buy, we created fake real estate (metaverse) to buy, we created fake asset managers to ‘invest’ with….banks, who lifeblood is taking as much money at the cheapest rate possible, stopped taking the free money from the government, they turned the world upside down by actually paying other banks to take money off their balance sheets that they were given for free….can you imagine paying someone to take your money off your hands?
THAT is the historical anomaly. Not what is happening now.
If your investment thesis includes a reversion to something resembling the late 20-teens any time soon your are going to be sorely disappointed, and poorer. That was not a cycle. That was a 100-year flood.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
Timeframe, Max.
Hahaha, went to close the computer and saw this name….the source of his wealth?
Blogger with barely noticeable net worth turned $25k into $100m…
LOL. I love this stuff as it helps disprove the existence of any just Higher Being and reinforces that the cosmos is run by a comedian with a Seinfeld-esque sense of humor, ha.
Good day, All.
“In 2009, the venture capital firm Sequoia enlisted Mr. Calacanis as one of its “scouts,” an informal network of entrepreneurs who look for promising companies on the firm’s behalf. As part of that program, Mr. Calacanis invested $25,000 on a friend’s crazy-sounding tech-enabled cab company. The friend was Travis Kalanick; the company was Uber. And despite that company’s recent turmoil, the deal has turned into Mr. Calacanis’s biggest win as an angel by far, worth about $100 million on paper.”
“Mr. Calacanis, 46, admits his personality is not for everyone. “Most folks think I’m lucky, some say I’m a complete fraud, and a handful think I’m a brilliant hype man, and I don’t agree with any of them — I agree with all of them…”
https://web.archive.org/web/20171103143058/https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/27/technology/when-tech-disrupts-wealth-and-stability-angels-may-be-solution.html
Someone that gets it.
“The P/E Ratio for $ARKG is 23.73 & the Price To Book is 4.11. The S&P 500 $SPY P/E is 27.99 and the Price To Book is 8.88, per the Wall Street Journal. If you roll your eyes when @CathieDWood says ARK has Deep Value holdings, ARKG is screaming it vs. what most people own.
I’m a longtime holder of many and/or all the ARK Funds. Since 2014, $ARKG in particular is reaching the most extreme levels for all the things I look for to buy shares on weakness. ARKG likely solves the most critical problems that will have the most exponential GROWTH.
Signify Health $SGFY , a former top holding for ARKG before $CVS bought them is the first of many that I believe is on that are on M&A lists following Elections in 3 short weeks from now. The pace will speed up. When there is a V recovery, this will be the steepest angle.”
The real amazement I see is the fine line between outright fraud and legalized fairy tails. Elizabeth Holmes should have just kept making claims about trying to reach goals instead of lying about achieving them.
We will have full self driving. We will send common folk to space for fun. We will have a network of robotaxi cars. We will have clean energy cheaper than natural gas.
“I’m not even sure people know what’s in $ARKG anymore but I challenge you to go through the top holdings and look at the PEG Ratios vs. the top holdings in the S&P 500. It might shock you on almost any Deep Value Metric. ark-funds.com/wp-content/upl…”
Left We are 6 months, and 8 days.
One year ago mortgage rates were 3 percent, today 7 percent. That says it all.
I could see this happening.
“Like Europe today, real estate will be impossible to purchase for future generations anywhere within or near major metros across the US.
To find an affordable home in the future you’ll need to be at least 1 hour from the nearest airport.”
Luke, not that force, the other one. Damn now this is cold. Like nitrogen cold.
Luke Stein, 18, was seized on a fugitive-from-justice warrant shortly after noon on Oct. 14 by police at Colorado University in Boulder, where he attends school, records show.
Stein — who’s a volunteer firefighter in Alpine and Demarest — had his vehicle’s blue-and-white emergency warning lights on when he pursued and deliberately rear-ended the victims’ car on Route 9W in Alpine just after midnight Monday, Oct. 10, Bergen County Prosecutor Mark Musella said.
Their Honda Pilot sped off and a short time later rolled and crashed into the woods in front of the Montammy Golf Club in Alpine, the prosecutor said.
Two teens were critically injured and two others were severely injured. A fifth was seriously injured.
Stein was headed home when he received an emergency alert on his firefighter pager to respond to the golf club for a motor vehicle accident, according to a detective from Musella’s office.
“He responded to Alpine Fire/EMS headquarters and returned to the scene with emergency personnel,” the prosecutor’s detective wrote in a complaint.
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/morris/news/driver-seized-in-colorado-in-route-9w-crash-that-critically-injured-bergen-county-teens/846381/
“It always amazes me that the majority of the public focuses primarily on the turmoil in the stock market…
What is happening in the bond market this year is even more striking: This is the fourth worst year (after 1721, 1865 and 1920) in the last 322 years!”
“We are witnessing the fastest repricing of US mortgage rates in 30+ years
And the mortgage market underpins the huge $40+ trillion US residential housing market
Marginal buyers are cut off
The ”best case” ahead is a frozen market”
“When US core inflation is at 40-year highs, the Fed cares ZERO about the rest of the world.
1) Will it end up breaking something?
Most likely yes.
2) Will it stop them?
Yes, if the repo or Treasury markets freeze.
Maybe, if we see some big insolvency.
Not there yet.”
House you like/want in your neighborhood? Send them creepy letters for a few years, when they get spooked enough buy the house at a thirty percent discount.
Later Netflix will write a movie about it, you can profit there too.
https://dailyvoice.com/new-jersey/morris/news/creepy-letters-sent-to-nj-homeowners-inspired-new-netflix-series-the-watcher/846244/
“for a rate environment not seen in decades and that was more aggressive than volker”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
Timeframe, Max.
BRT,
The real amazement indeed. Agreed to all of those.
And hyped not just by hucksters but also by enablers in investment banks who get paid to manufacture the “plays” on the “themes” that are selling. Also the fairytales written by seemingly objective consulting firms. There were plenty of fools in institutional investing. But I still appreciate having a window into the soul of a hapless retail investor fool like Pumps. In my professional and personal life I wouldn’t encounter such a person, so it’s useful for me to be aware that such people exist.
Surprised no one is talking about this on here.
“What happened in China yesterday is massive. I haven’t seen anything as big in my lifetime. Basically Biden said to American engineers working in China in the semiconductor to either resign or be ready to lose their American citizenship. Everyone resigned. Industry collapsed”
“Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight.
One round of sanctions from Biden did more damage than all four years of performative sanctioning under Trump.”
Lmao 👍🏻
“But I still appreciate having a window into the soul of a hapless retail investor fool like Pumps.”
“This is what annihilation looks like: China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero overnight. Complete collapse. No chance of survival.”
When all else fails:
https://youtu.be/on_TK2ci_MA
Godspeed
If you give credit due to Fed policies on the way up, you shouldn’t blame Cathie Wood due to Fed policies on the way down.
Pumps
A US citizen by birth can not have their citizenship involuntarily revoked. The government can revoke their passport though for certain reasons. Maybe that’s what happened?. Green cards can get revoked and naturalized citizens can lose their citizenship if they were found to have lied on their citizenship application.
I’m not sure, but it blows my mind that no one is talking about this big time move by the USA.
This thread was made for the buffets of this blog.
1/ How do you maximize compound returns?
A. Don’t use too much risk.
B. Don’t rely on bounce-backs.
C. Appropriate risk depends on expected Sharpe ratios.
D. Diversification increases Sharpes.
E. Hedge the (relevant) tails.
“Rule #1: Never lose money.”
https://twitter.com/reformedtrader/status/1457797335430225922?s=46&t=WMp_Y4yPCphk6rYBc3xfgQ
Maybe I should take the Lib approach. I obviously have fortune with timing the market. I rode the FAANG’s to a huge increase in 401k, and then was fortunate to exit before this fall. I bought real estate at both lows. Maybe the luck is with me-Homer Simpson. Lol
I did lose on the pancakes and ark. Can’t win them all. I did learn a tremendous amount about the market with each loss. Turning a negative into a positive. Investment well spent even if it didn’t produce actual capital.
Nothing like losing to teach you a valuable lesson.
BTW, I am against Buffett’s investment strategy unless you are wealthy. You have to take risks if you want to get ahead of your neighbors. I also believe diversification is for the rich. Diversification strategy for the poor investors is a losing strategy. Just keep swinging and striking it out until you learn how to hit is a much better strategy.
That’s why 401k is a scam. As is passive investing. Sure, works for the homer simpsons, but the smart individuals are getting f’ing robbed long-term. Your money is locked up in that 401k and is used to stablize the market, but that tax incentive makes you blind to it.
The most pathetic stupidity ever posted to these threads.
The Great Pumpkin says:
October 15, 2022 at 9:28 pm
BTW, I am against Buffett’s investment strategy unless you are wealthy. You have to take risks if you want to get ahead of your neighbors. I also believe diversification is for the rich. Diversification strategy for the poor investors is a losing strategy. Just keep swinging and striking it out until you learn how to hit is a much better strategy.
That’s why 401k is a scam. As is passive investing. Sure, works for the homer simpsons, but the smart individuals are getting f’ing robbed long-term. Your money is locked up in that 401k and is used to stablize the market, but that tax incentive makes you blind to it
Pumps
Read 7. The new policy restricts US persons from working for China semiconductor industry. Nothing about threatening to revoke passports.
https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file