Frankly, I don’t think home prices in the NY Metro Area will be hitting a bottom this year. From a timing perspective, the home price declines in the Northeast were running about a year behind home price declines in the West. From an economic perspective, we’ve only just begun to see significant job cuts in the area. In my opinion, we may see prices continue to fall for the next two years here, longer than the Q4 2009 prediction provided by Moody’s. We’ve not reached the necessary levels of affordability, which would require an approximate 30% drop from peak prices. But hey, even if you don’t believe me, listen to the experts. They are predicting nationwide prices to fall another 11% over the next year. The folks over at UBS are much more bearish than Moody’s, they are predicting that NY Metro Area prices “may decline 20-25% (if not more) from current levels”
So why jump in now? The sidelines still look like a very comfortable place to be while you wait for prices to come down even more.
If anyone has access to a copy of the report, I’d love to read it. I’d especially like to see the NY Metro area forecast. Just from skimming the wires, I know they’ve got some later dated “bottom” projections for some areas (I believe they are calling for a 2010 bottom in Florida), and I’ve got a feeling the Moody’s projection for NY Metro is further out than Q4 2009 as well.
From the AFP:
US home prices to hit bottom at year-end: study
The freefall in US housing prices that sparked a global economic crisis will ease by the end of 2009 but not before another leg down, resulting in a 36 percent slide, a study said Monday.
The report by Moody’s Economy.com said home prices in the 381 US metropolitan areas have already dropped an average of 25 percent, and will slide a further 11 percent before stabilizing.
“Notwithstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the housing downturn is within sight for the nation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Economy.com and an author of the report.
“Presuming we see strong action by policymakers to help support the economy and the housing market, prices will begin to recover by the end of this year.”
The study predicts that by the time the market correction is complete, it will have led to double-digit declines in 62 percent of the US metropolitan areas.
The overall economy may take even more time to recover, the report said.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Housing Market May Bottom in 2009, Zandi Says
U.S. home prices will reach bottom by the end of the year, concluding a slide that will have cut values 36 percent, Moody’s Economy.com said today.
…
U.S. home prices will fall another 11 percent on average before stabilizing, according to Moody’s Economy.com. The Case- Shiller home price index will fall 36 percent from its 2006 peak to the bottom this year, Zandi’s study said.About 62 percent of U.S. metropolitan areas surveyed will record double-digit declines in home prices by the end of the slump, according to today’s report. Prices will fall more than 50 percent in former boom areas such as southeast Florida and parts of California, including Riverside.
Since the ecomony started to go south, analysts have routinely placed a recovery for what ever market they happened to be in at six months out from the date they made the prediction, without any explanation why it should be so. The reality is, no one knows when the bottom will be reached or what happens after.
From Bloomberg:
Fannie, Freddie Funding Needs May Pass $200 Billion, FHFA Says
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by regulators, may need more than the $200 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. government if the housing market continues to deteriorate, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said.
The companies’ needs will depend largely on the direction of home prices, Lockhart said in an interview in Las Vegas yesterday. His comments followed statements from Fannie Mae in November and Freddie Mac Chairman John Koskinen last week that the government’s funding commitment through 2009 may fall short of what the companies need to make good on their obligations.
“When we sized the amount in September, we obviously looked at stress tests and what was happening in the marketplace,” Lockhart said. “There’s been some significant events since then that weren’t in our forecast.”
“ZURICH — Swiss banking giant UBS AG announced further cuts at its troubled investment-banking operation Tuesday, saying it would cull more than 2,000 jobs as it reported a larger-than-expected loss for 2008.”
Corrected from an earlier report that cited a 15k jobs loss.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123424664042367301.html
To paraphrase Jim Rogers, Moody’s has gotten it wrong every day for the past three years.
IMO, we’re looking at a minimum of another 30% down before we hit bottom. Straight back to 200-2001 prices, with the inevitable overshoot at the nadir.
#3 – And a 7 billion dollar loss.
#4 clotpoll
2000-2001 prices would make life very nice! I think deflation is great. house prices at 5 times income and $4 per gal gas are no good.
Investors Boost Bets Gold Will Reach $1,000 on Economic Turmoil
is this the new analyst catch phrase?
“There’s been some significant events since then that weren’t in our forecast.”
From the Boston Globe:
Boston’s tallest building faces foreclosure
Boston’s tallest skyscraper is facing foreclosure.
The Boston Globe reports Tuesday that The John Hancock Tower will be auctioned next month after lenders moved to foreclose on owner Broadway Partners, which has defaulted on some debt payments on the building and two others it bought in 2006.
A group of Hancock lenders opened the foreclosure process Friday by hiring New York firm SL Green Realty Corp. to arrange for the auction on March 31.
Jonathon Yormak, a principal at Broadway Partners, says negotiations with lenders are ongoing in an effort to stave off foreclosure.
Broadway Partners bought the 60-story Hancock Tower in 2006 for $1.3 billion. The building is now estimated to be worth between $700 million and $900 million.
From the Star Ledger:
Bergen County, Hoboken face six-figure bills for unauthorized early retirement programs
Early retirement programs are typically put in place as cost-saving measures, but things didn’t work out that way for Bergen County and Hoboken — and now both face whopping bills from the state.
Regulators are hitting the two governments with seven-figure charges, saying they illegally offered early retirement packages to public workers without first getting state approval. The state is charging Bergen County $1.4 million and Hoboken $4.2 million.
“Otherwise, the cost would be passed on to taxpayers, and we’re not supposed to do that,” said Tom Vincz, a spokesman for the state Treasury Department. “There have been a number of unauthorized early retirement incentives that have been caught in midstream, but these are examples where they were caught after they took effect.”
Bergen and Hoboken enacted the programs last year to cut costs. In Bergen, 29 employees retired through the program; in Hoboken, the number was 25. The sums the state is charging the two governments are based on actuarial calculations.
Last week, the pensions division of the Treasury Department sent letters to officials in both governments saying they “must be held financially responsible for the additional pension costs resulting from” the programs. The payments are not considered fines, and they are supposed to cover benefits costs for the retiring employees. The state is charging an additional $5,700 to Bergen County and $6,100 to Hoboken to cover fees associated with calculating the sums that are being billed.
…
Hoboken Mayor David Roberts said today he was “shocked” to learn of the charges and he doesn’t know how his financially strapped city will cover the cost.
Dream homes will always be out of reach.
I’m sleepy..
Ah, tbe American way of thinking. Maybe along these lines TARP is not so bad either. It’s not Corporate Welfare. Just government assistance for companies with need!
This country is so doomed.
Nadya Suleman, the mother of the octuplets born last month, gets $490 a month in food stamps, the Los Angeles Times reported Monday evening. Three of her first children also get federal supplemental security income because they are disabled, the Times reported.
Suleman’s publicist, Michael Furtney, confirmed the information.
During an interview with Ann Curry on the TODAY show, Suleman denied being on welfare. (Msnbc.com is a joint venture of NBC Universal and Microsoft.)
Suleman told NBC News correspondent Ann Curry in an interview that she was not receiving welfare.
Furtney said Suleman didn’t consider the food stamps and SSI to be welfare.
“In Nadya’s view, the money that she gets from the food stamp program … and the resources disabilities payments she gets for her three children are not welfare,” he said. “They are part of programs designed to help people with need, and she does not see that as welfare.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a3omS7KZmthw&refer=home
Congress Misreads Public Anger at Wall Street: Caroline Baum
“How’s this for a twist? For the market to begin to function normally, investors need a guarantee that the government won’t do anything, not a promise that it will.”
That’s for you, Stu – from your “Don’t do anything” a few days back.
She also quotes Luigi Zingales – I like that guy.
Bloomberg reporting that GM is cutting 10,000 salaried workers.
Deep Discount in New Jersey.
“This 7,000-square-foot house was originally listed at $3.5 million. Now it’s up for auction with a minimum bid of $1.75 million.”
Location: Franklin Lakes, NJ. On site auction.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123368343441344183.html
Last night took car service, driver was new was a laid off Honda Dealership manager. He was the manager in charge of sales, before that he worked at Toyota, guy is in business 25 years. Told me is driving car service off books for friend while collecting unemplyment. Also told me there are no jobs period selling cars, Japanese, German or American. You know the car industry is dead when there are no jobs in tristate area selling Japanese cars. He also said it is a vicious cycle. So many people come to look and not to buy or can’t get financing that the few salesmen left sometimes don’t even bother to try and sell a car, most people are just looking and most can’t get financing so why bother. The driver said it is a terrible attitude for a sales person. I guess realtors are falling into that boat.
SSI is not welfare by the way.
Fun bond of day, crazy isn’t it.
FORD MTR CO DEL NT 9.50000% 09/15/2011
Price (Ask) 38.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 59.017%
DL 1
I disagree. I think there are some very logical guesses as to how ad where this bottoms and what happens afterwards.
Very few people are willing to consider these scenarios at this time as they are to extreme for most people to accept. We are seeing a failure of the keynesian methodology as it has been applied over the last 30+ years. Such a statement or acknowledgment of such a statement is heretical in most circles.
Note, i think some aspects of keynes ideas are sound, but the form of his idea that have been put into practice are nothing more then curing withdrawal by handing the junkie more heroin and expecting him to no longer be addicted.
I am not saying my opinions are correct, but do think there are some opinions out there that are very close to the real deal.
Any so called expert who says “no one could have guessed”, or “no one knew” is full of it!
Kettle: I would listen to anyone’s assessment of what will happen next as long as they provide some reasoning why. For example, I completely agree with your assessment of first inflation, then deflation but unlike most of what passes for expert opinion in the financial pages, you present a rationale to support it. The talking heads on CNBC and their guests however simply throw out a ‘things will get better, how about in six months?’ and leave it at that. Aside from these boards I see no serious descussion of what the stimulus programs, monetization of debt, and increase to the money supply will do to the economy.
DL,
Housing will bottom after deflation bottoms out, its a lead lag pair. deflation looks like it will bottom out sometime around 2012 and then perhaps another year or so for housing to fully bottom before the very long and slow trudge upwards. Of course then inflation will be through the roof
just my opinion
anyone see this spot for Cspan?
the meat of it starts a 2:10
According to Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) (PA-11), in mid-September of 2008, the United States of America came just three hours away from the collapse of the entire economy. In a span of 2 hours, $550 billion was drawn out of money market accounts in an electronic run on the banks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INAGMSARPYw&eurl=http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/2/9/234340/6189/142/695504
The only thing that surpasses the graft in hoboken is the incompetence…..
Hilarious story of the meter collectors stealing quarters this weekend in the jersey journal. A woman saw them, called the cops and they were arrested with quarters filling all of their pockets….the director said they would have never been caught if not for the eyewitness, is there any acounting?????
Neighbor who was with GM corp, but worked at a local dealer just got laid off. He was with them 25 years. Was offered a strictly commission position at another dealership that would have been 2/3 his current salary if he hit all his numbers.
Now, he plans to open his own shop. I think he’ll do well.
is there any acounting?????
Sure, but he is on the take too.
Yikes,
From last nights thread…I didn’t cash out my 401K. Just moved everything that was invested in 100% stocks into a 50/50 split of corporate bond fund and managed portfolio fund. These typically do a fine job of matching inflation and on occasion, beat inflation by 1 or 2%. So cash out was the wrong terminology.
Thanks for the clarification Stu, I thought you cashed out to heat your house. Had visions of you guys burning dollars in a rusty old 55 gallon drum in your livingroom.
Stu, your comment yesterday still isn’t sitting well with me. A 4 year payback on the insulation and you still won’t do it.
Yet you go to AC? Spend hours trying to whittle down your cable bill?
C’mon man, this just makes no sense.
If you hit payback by year 4, what does your 10 year ROI look like? Probably see higher returns than a bond fund, not to mention the increase in resale value.
Won’t even go into the writeoffs.
Suprised the Montclairians haven’t lynched you yet for not being green.
DL (16)-
That looks like about a 1.75mm house.
It’s also a POS.
vodka (19)-
No one in gubmint or WS wants to approach the problem from the addiction paradigm. However, that’s really the root of the problem. The various financial failures are just symptoms.
Funny, but I really believe the two most powerful weapons we really have to get out of this economic hole are:
1. the processes used for detox/drug treatment
2. application of the laws of thermodynamics
Yes, I have now lost my mind. Off to work.
I’d like to apply the “stress test” to Ken Lewis.
DL (20)-
“Aside from these boards I see no serious descussion of what the stimulus programs, monetization of debt, and increase to the money supply will do to the economy.”
That’s because the loop that runs through WS, DC and media resembles junkies talking to their dealers.
Crossroads(6)-
“I think deflation is great”
– Sustained deflation is not good for the economy. People put off spending because they expect prices in the future will lower than the current price. This affects the bottom lines of the companies, they lay people off, reducing demand for their goods further, producing more deflation – a vicious cycle. This is the “paradox of thrift”.
We had a negative savings rate for quite a while and just about @ 1-2 % right now. Historical averages are around 8% (I think). With a 75% consumer based economy (historical average – approx.64%), this will sound a death knell. We need to revert to the mean, but doing it too soon will kill us. Hence, IMO, govt. needs to step in and take over the spending for a while (of course, in productive sectors with long term benefits).
I am going to get nailed for this post :).
Grim-#24
Sad, but true
gubmint stim = methadone
Grim Could one not reasonably argue that now that the job cuts are accelerating in the NYC metro area, that the house price declines should accelerate as well?
Kettle (19) –
“Any so called expert who says “no one could have guessed”, or “no one knew” is full of it!”
Roubini and Krugman are Keynesian, I think?
Clotpoll says:
February 10, 2009 at 9:03 am
I’d like to apply the “stress test” to Ken Lewis.
clot: I was in the Red Bank branch yesterday. For those not familiar, it is really Banco de America. Most of the signs are in Spanish, most of the tellers are bilingual, and most of the conversations are in Spanish.
Anyway, I go in to get two teller checks (to pay each realtor 1/2 month rent as a fee in lieu of paying landlord). The teller screws up the process 4 times. I walked in at 3:35PM and at about 4:05PM I walk out without my checks!!!!!!!!!
If I get charged ANYTHING I am sacking those fools!
WTF!
WTF!
WTF!
WTF!
WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Some tax news on this cheery morning from the Border War. I wonder if this is a precursor of things to come for NJ:
“BOSTON—New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (D) Feb. 6 said he will propose legislation prohibiting state businesses from collecting sales taxes of other states on items purchased in New Hampshire stores.
The announcement stems from a ruling last year by the Massachusetts Appellate Tax Board requiring a Connecticut-based tire retailer with stores in both New Hampshire and Massachusetts to collect a 5 percent use tax on tires sold in New Hampshire stores to Massachusetts residents.
. . . . “We need to send a clear message that Massachusetts and other states shall not impose their sales taxes on New Hampshire businesses,” Lynch said. “We have chosen not to have a sales tax here in New Hampshire and we are not about to let Massachusetts—or any state—impose its sales tax on our businesses for items purchased in New Hampshire stores.”
. . . . The Massachusetts tax board determined that Town Fair should be assessed approximately $109,000 for tires sold to Massachusetts residents.
New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly A. Ayotte said Feb. 5 she would file an amicus brief with the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court to appeal the tax enforcement action against Town Fair. “I am concerned that the action taken by the Massachusetts Commissioner of Revenue may be interpreted to expand its authority to collect taxes from New Hampshire businesses,” Ayotte said. “The Massachusetts tax law should not be enforced in such a way as to interfere with interstate commerce.”
Basically, the Mass. court said it could force a NH business to collect use tax because the business also had a Mass. presence. There is no other jurisdictional hook for that, and one wonders how Del. would react if NJ starts trying to force DE businesses to collect use tax when they sell to NJ residents? That sucking sound they hear in Trenton would be all the multistate companies putting their NJ locations into separate subsidiaries.
The state is going to work harder than ever to shake the money tree, so before you put the purchases in the trunk while shopping in Delaware, look around for Ford Grand Vics with blackwall tires, motor running, NJ or PA plates, and two guys sitting in the front with buzz haircuts. Then call the Del. state police on them.
From the Orlando Sentinel:
Gun dealers experiencing shortages of bullets
Selling bullets may be the most secure job in Florida as long as supplies last.
After months of heavy buying, gun dealers across the state are experiencing shortages.
Some say it began with the election of President Barack Obama. Others say it’s about the economic downturn or fear of crime. Whatever the reasons, ammunition has been selling like plywood and bottled water in the days before a hurricane.
“The survivalist in all of us comes out,” said John Ritz, manager of East Orange Shooting Sports in Winter Park. “It’s more about protecting what you have.”
Grim – re 26. Our original plan was to stockpile cash so we’d have a big enough downpayment for the second place. Stu’s thinking was that the tenants would just pay the heat until we could insulate and re-side the house down the road.
If we don’t have to put down as much as originally planned, then we can put invest the extra cash into fixing up the rental.
It will get done eventually. But Stu knows I will kill him if we can’t get another house because everything is tied up in his “investment property”. Especially now that I know you fine folks and have easier access to guns.
16.
That is wall to wall tacky. Only thing missing is Tony wielding a machine gun.
Don’t know if this was posted or discussed.
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/02/08/congress_spooke.html
Congress Spooked in September By Massive Financial System Run Underway?
Everyone remembers that Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke went into a closed session in Congress in mid-September of 2008 and scared the crap out of the assembled politicians. According to a (very rough) transcript of a semi-coherent Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) on C-Span, here is what Paulson and Bernanke said:
It was about September 15th [sic]. … On Thursday at about 11 o’clock in the morning the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous drawdown of, uh, money market accounts in the United States to the tune of $550-billion was being drawn out in in a matter of an hour or two.
The Treasury opened up its window to help, and pumped in $105-billion into the system, and quickly realized it could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close down the operation, to close down the money accounts. … If they had not done that, in their estimation, by 2 PM that afternoon $5.5-trillion would have been withdrawn and would have collapsed the U.S. economy and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed.
We talked at that time about what would have happened. It would have been the end of our economic and our political system as we know it.
PGC (42)-
What if Klink and Bergabe staged the whole thing?
On the subject of Red Bank (Monmouth County)….
A friend who is in retail told me yesterday that Hip City’s retailers are falling off the face of the earth. She says that along Broad Street, there are 34 vacancies between River Road and St James Church.
For a town that professes to be the hub of Central Jersey, that is an astounding number!
Weren’t $300 jeans invented in Red bank?
46.
Is Ken Smith’s comic shop still opened? I haven’t been to RB in ages
#44 – Fiddy – I was in Red Bank about 3 weeks ago and there were definitely a lot of vacancies. Monmouth Mall wasn’t much better.
errr, Kevin
#46 – Yes, but that place isn’t too dependent on comic book sales.
Grim #51 in Mod re: porkulus bill
Hip City –
If they close that Starbucks on the corner…..then the panic will set in!!
Look at this overpriced home in Chatham, one of the most overpriced towns in New Jersey:
http://vt.realbiz360.com/MLS-59346.html
It actually came on the market over a year ago for more than 2 million. Its in a neighborhood of $700-900K small homes. Probably worth 1.2 mil on its best day. This pig will sit for another year or two.
Pat, (yesterday)
[sheepishly] I actually *looked* at it…
House looks really old… would look for something closer to the coast…
Of course I’d have to get past my in-laws barricade before making it anywhere out of NJ. Heck prolly Bergen for that matter.
(thanks for thinking of us though… :) – now… back to waffling, fence sitting and aimless ramblings…
sl
#53 – At one point in the mid 90’s there were around 6 coffee shops in RB all within walking distance. I think they’re down to 3.
This one from CHATHAM was a FSBO for $2 million, he lowered it to $1.75 Mil and got no offers. Now he has reduced it to 1.55 mil.
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203890461&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=266299&fromPublic=PUBLIC
What is interesting is this seller paid around $400K according to a neighbor in the late 1990s. He says he wants to make his profit before the market drops.
Ummmm, should we tell him he is about 2 years too late.
Gator. 13
I’m still wondering who did her bad nose job, lip plumping and by golly, that French manicure!
She is a Angelina Jolie white trash wannabe… wait til she starts getting tattoos.
The fertility place she went to should require immediate outside oversight for all of their future procedures.
Shameless.
sl
Chifi 37
Got a debit card? Get money orders at the post office for god’s sakes…. WTF??
sl
This one from Chatham looks good for just under a million until you see that your backyard has one of those 100 foot tall electric power towers in the back. Literally one giant leg is about 20 feet from your property.
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203896248&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=266299&fromPublic=PUBLIC
This dog has a postage stamp size sloping backyard, needs new bathrooms throughout and has a very steep driveway. Did I also mention it is so far from Chatham’s main street (5 miles or so) that it is probably the least desirable Chatham neighborhood.
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203887414&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=266299&fromPublic=PUBLIC
The fertility place she went to should require immediate outside oversight for all of their future procedures.
Why not make them responsible for the cost of the SSI, Disability, and Food Stamps? Get an actuary, calculate the total cost to the taxpayers, and fine the doctors for this amount.
(Not unlike the approach used with Hoboken and BC early retirements above).
Shelley (54)-
What a crapbox. Looks like an office condo.
This one from Chatham looks good for just under a million until you see that your backyard has one of those 100 foot tall electric power towers in the back. Literally one giant leg is about 20 feet from your property.
I can sell that as a benefit.
You know how much one of those fancy backyard play gyms cost? They run upwards of $10 grand nowadays.
Here, you get one for free!
You won’t need to pay for the electricity costs necessary to run nightlights either. Just put in fluorescent bulbs and watch them glow faintly at night, powered by the FREE emf!
This one we saw several months ago when the people wanted $2 million. These home is owned by a family of real estate flippers who are trying to make their last killing. They have it down to $1.8 million, still about $800,000 more than it should be.
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203895386&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=266299&fromPublic=PUBLIC
We are seeing a failure of the keynesian methodology
Keynsian economics have never been attempted. The Keynsian School requires discipline is times of plenty. The government raises taxes, for example, during the good times when higher taxes are tolerable. The government builds a “rainy day” fund, so that during downturns, it has the money to fund stimulus.
We (the U.S.) on the other hand, only does the stimulus part. We spend like drunken sailors, stomping on the gas peddle, in both good times & bad.
Grim,
Gator’s right. Only way to insulate the house is to remove the siding and ply. Our aluminum siding is ugly and faded so it is something we plan to do, but want to wait for the contractors to get desperate for work in this worsening economy. As for being green, my 14-year old Civic that gets the same mileage as the new Prius more than shields me from the wrath of my fellow liberal Montclairions.
Trust me, if my shorts give us a second gift that is even half the size of the first one, we will get the work done a lot sooner. On the bright side of things, in the Fall and Spring, we get free air conditioning on those cool nights as the drafts are no less powerful than your average forced air system.
Red Bank, reminds me of a funny story of my mis-spent youth.
I was driving down Broad Street, checking out the pleated skirts of the Red Bank Catholic school girls, when WNEW-FM announced that Bruce Springsteen concert tickets were going on sale at that very moment! I was literally right in front of Jack’s Music (with Ticketron).
I pulled in the back, double-parked, and went inside Jack’s. I was the first one in line. And Jack himself was feverishly punching the “Buy” button on his Ticketron machine. He already had a stack of tix for his all buddies.
I got 3rd row center seats, and declared Victory!
On the night of the show, there was Jack and his entourage in the front row. The spoils go to the man with the Ticketron franchise.
When you talk denial in Chatham, these people are right up there:
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203881775&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=266299&fromPublic=PUBLIC
They have dropped from 1.195 to 1.425 even though this house is on the market close to a year. Its been relisted at least once. They have it at nearly $275K over the assessed price and all Chatham houses were reassesssed in 2006 at fair market value at what we now know was the height of the market.
What is even more interesting is they have a neighbor who has the same house that was listed for $979K then $929K and could not sell during most of the same period. I guess they really dont want to sell.
[40] grim,
that’s why I made sure I got mine. Easily enough to hold off Lord Clotpoll’s cavalry of llamas. They’re tall and slow and make easy targets.
Of course, I have to mount my NBC defenses. Clot may lob sheafs of toxic bank assets over my perimeter defenses and poison us to death.
My favorite from the Chatham extremely overpriced tour is this Cape Cod for 1.19 Million:
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203905776&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=266299&fromPublic=PUBLIC
Certainly a nice house as Cape Cods go but probably worth the 25%-40% under the $810k top of the market assessment, on its best day.
Shelley (69)-
Kudos to the homeowner for making the whole place look like a retirement home.
[64] grim,
Thanks for the chuckle. Cleaning coffee off my desk now because of you.
Shelly(69)
Looked at that one about a year ago also. Backyard way too small for kids.
Vic 37
I am more of an Austrian myself but wasnt bashing keynsianism itself. While I do disagree with the modern implementation of keynesianism, that doesnt mean Taleb or Rubini cant have legitimate points. All of their ideas are not invalidated just because i think some are invalid.
plume (70)-
I’m gonna have Spammy put the llamas on a program of an@bolic steroids and but@zolidin.
I figure within three months, we’ll have a crack cavalry of vicious, slobbering wool machines.
It may be hard to recruit midget llamamen, though.
US Home Prices Sank 13.8% in 2008: IAS Index
The recession and foreclosures battered house prices in 2008, dragging down values by 13.8 percent nationally and down 19.1 percent from their 2006 peak…..”We’re seeing house prices returning to pre-bubble levels and there are no signs of leveling off just yet,” Dave McCarthy, president and chief executive of Integrated Asset Services, said in a statement.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/gc04/idUKTRE51938G20090210
“I figure within three months, we’ll have a crack cavalry of vicious, slobbering wool machines.”
Or the starting lineup of the 2009 Yankees!
Renting 66
Perhaps i wasnt clear.
I was suggesting that keynesiansim as applied. That is not the same as Keynes original ideas. TPTB have also cherry picked only the aspects that are convenient for them. i think we agree on the matter.
http://www.tocr.com/listing_detail.php?tocr_listing_id=2364
Perfect mint condition Ridgewood short sale. I wonder what this guy paid for this house. It looks very nice so he must have really overpaid to throw it up in a short sale. I wonder if this is a good price, maybe I will throw in a bid, wonder if you can do 10% below asking on a short sale?
Hence, IMO, govt. needs to step in and take over the spending for a while (of course, in productive sectors with long term benefits).
I am going to get nailed for this post :).
Victorian,
With the consumer economy representing a large slug of our spending, we will be hurting irregardless of if govt steps in. We just hurt a little less. Someone has to step in if we want to lessen the pain.
Regarding #65
Shelley, my wife and I saw this on Sunday, a nice house but it is a prefab. Some neighbors were taking a tour of it as well. My wife and I spoke to them and they said that the whole neighborhood hates these people and doesnt speak to them. That is another reason why they are selling. He told us they brought it in on trucks and the town was hoodwinked by how they put it together to “play” they town and get around size rules. Its actually too tall by a couple feet. The problem (besides the price) us that the bedrooms are too small and it has a couple of useless rooms. The $25K tax bill does not help.
My wife and I did the math. For someone to buy this home and put down $300K, they would need to make about $250K per year to qualify for a 30 year mortgage. There is a very small window of people who make that amount who are under 35 to 40.
Found it.
A humbled Ken Lewis driving to DC for the TARP Accountability hearings.
http://routingbyrumor.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/magoo.jpg
[73] stu
Was gonna reply to clot, but I can’t top that.
Shelly,
Can I post your commentary up on the main page?
Hardplace
handing trillions in cash to zombie banks and funding hedge funds so that they can turn around and short you is not how you ease the pain
Thanks Nom.
#64 grim, electric jungle gym
… know a guy who bought because a retirement home as it was a selling feature for him. He & his wife had no grandkis as they didn’t have kids, & no one with kids is going to move nearby, no one will develop the land, gets to see all wildlife casually walking thru not spooked… all because of the great wonderful amazing selling point of
*wide arm gesture & great big eyes*
power lines!
I would retire under power lines. Figure it would provide me some free chemo.
Oh wait, that sounded like my inner John for a moment there.
Hardplace
handing trillions in cash to zombie banks and funding hedge funds so that they can turn around and short you is not how you ease the pain
Kettle1,
Not talking about the ill conceived TARP. I would have been happy to see some of these poorly managed banks go BK. Some worthwhile government spending that will help develop industries and provide “useful” infrastructure.
Interesting Yahoo Finance Headline:
“Stocks fall as gov’t unveils financial plan”
When will they learn? And Cindy…thanks for the earlier link.
More of the same it seems, they are going to try and revive the rotting corpse of CDOs.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHbjGJDSNnIs&refer=home
vodka (87)-
I hate it, but I love it. In this instance, the trend will definitely be our friend.
I’ll just tuck in right behind those hedgies and let them run interference.
I think we could see JPM enter the zombie zone by Summer.
Wholesale Trade
Released on 2/10/2009 10:00:00 AM For December, 2008
Previous Actual
Inventories – M/M change -0.6 % -1.4 %
Highlights
Inventories at wholesalers are dropping but not nearly fast enough given the much greater drop in sales. Wholesale inventories fell 1.4 percent in December against a 3.6 percent decline in sales at wholesalers, driving up the stock-to-sales ratio 3 tenths to 1.27. Auto inventories rose 1.7 percent while December sales plunged 8.1 percent, and the extremely disappointing vehicle sales data for January point to similar trouble ahead. Also higher were inventories of machinery, up 1.2 percent while sales fell 2.3 percent. While auto inventories are backing up due to a lack of consumer buyers, machinery inventories are backing up as industrial buyers pushout and cancel orders. Business inventories data on Thursday will include January data from retailers.
RE: “originally listed at $3.5 million … up for auction with a minimum bid of $1.75 million.”
What an eyesore. A giant stuccofoam box with gaudy roof elements tacked on. Are there no architects left in the world?
#95 – Look at the bright side, more inventory build will keep the GDP higher than it would have been without.
Weekend at Bernie’s…redux.
Buckle up Folks. Turbo Tim up in 15 minutes. Tarp II – The looting continues.
grim (97)-
All the metrics are skewed toward supply.
Demand? Not so much.
What an eyesore. A giant stuccofoam box with gaudy roof elements tacked on. Are there no architects left in the world?
I can’t help but laugh when I see a luxury home clad in EIFS (styrofoam backed stucco).
This stuff was invented to be a super-cheap cladding material for warehouses and strip malls. The styrofoam was intended to be a cheap insulation material applied externally to already built structures.
Requires little, if any, craftsmanship to apply. Incorrectly installed, this stuff becomes a ticking mold-bomb.
Run far, far away for any new construction clad in EIFS. If the builder cut corners there, he cut corners everywhere.
If the Tax Evader had any guts, he’d make his announcement wearing a Dick Nixon mask and holding a gun and bag.
grim (101)-
It’s pretty cool the way EIFS can rot an entire house from the inside out.
http://www.weccusa.com/eifs1.htm
Grim,
I also find that cladding hideous. But I bet it insulates the house fairly well, assuming primary insulation is also present.
12 minutes until Timmay the Tax Cheat tries to pump some more blood into the gunshot victim with 30 bullet holes.
Meanwhile, this trough needs to filled again.
Fannie, Freddie Funding Needs May Pass $200 Billion, FHFA Says
“When we sized the amount in September, we obviously looked at stress tests and what was happening in the marketplace,” Lockhart said. “There’s been some significant events since then that weren’t in our forecast.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aId2BJIzu0cQ&refer=home
I don’t understand these “stress” tests. Aren’t they supposed to apply stress until they find the point where the system breaks?
RE: “My favorite from the Chatham extremely overpriced tour is this Cape Cod for 1.19 Million”
Overpriced? But it has granite!
Syb,
You can use styrofoam as a secondary insulation material behind vinyl or fiberboard.
I’ve seen this technique used down on LBI. Old siding was removed and replaced first with foam insulating material. That was taped and covered over with roofing felt. Finally it was clad with hardiplank fiber cement siding that was property installed.
whenever politicans start to talk bail-out, market declines right away. as i said before, this is not a bail-out but a bait-in. washington wants to create a panic so they can get more money to spend. i expect one day dimon, lewis or pandit will come out saying “barak, enough is enough. don’t mention bail-out any more. give your money to your acorn friends.”
bottom is not close in NYC area. asking prices for most houses are still at peak (even new lists). the market will move lower through distressed sales which are just beginning en masse.
lol
We get a new website in TARP II
http://financialstability.gov/
2 minute warning just announced. Hurry Up offense in place. We need a Haily Mary.
Interesting read on the stimulus debate comparing Roosevelt stimulus to Obama’s…
SacBee.com:
My View: The New Deal roots in the stimulus debate
http://www.sacbee.com/opinion/v-print/story/1605961.html
Grim,
Please feel free to post any or all of it. I dont mind.
Shelley
grim: regarding NY continuing price declines. I posted yesterday, a family member who purchased a 1 bedroom co-op in upper Manahttan 2 years ago.
I tried to tell them to wait, would not hear of it.
Well last week a 2 bedroom came on the market in the building at 200K less than what they paid for their 1 bedroom. Of course the 2 bed needs to be renovated kitchen,bath etc., but a 200k difference? That in my mind is huge.
Some pullouts from the SacBee article…
“In any case, saving the banks solved only the supply side of the economic problem. Banks now had money to lend, but Americans needed to begin to borrow and spend as they had in the 1920s to get the economy moving again.”
“And Keynes believed you could not generate an adequate demand “without a large-scale recourse” to public works spending. Money spent through the WPA and other public works agencies put cash in the hands of workers who would spend it almost as soon as they got it. Spending it, they would create business for the rest of the economy, creating a revival of demand and of confidence.”
#110 skeptic: See my post at 115
3b and don’t forget about the option arm and alt-a resets a coming. Recent increases in fixed rate mortgages will not bode to well for those getting the old reset higher.
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/creditsuisse.jpg
Uh-Oh.
The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday announced that it is prepared to undertake a substantial expansion of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). The expansion could increase the size of the TALF to as much as $1 trillion and could broaden the eligible collateral to encompass other types of newly issued AAA-rated asset-backed securities, such as commercial mortgage-backed securities, private-label residential mortgage-backed securities, and other asset-backed securities . An expansion of the TALF would be supported by the provision by the Treasury of additional funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Timmy G is only making it worse. Timmy from the Fairly Oddparents could do a better job.
111 – Sean
um, I clicked financial stability fact sheet & got fact-sheet.pdf not found…
re: #121 – site is not up fully yet, and do you really think we will find anything but fluff there?
hey, whats another 200 billion amongst friends….
Fannie, Freddie Funding Needs May Pass $200 Billion, FHFA Says: “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by regulators, may need more than the $200 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. government if the housing market continues to deteriorate, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aId2BJIzu0cQ&refer=home
Victorian: Expanding it to 1 trillion to cover commercial mortgage-backed securities, private-label residential mortgage-backed securities, and other asset-backed securities would not put even a minor dent in the total.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_090210.htm
What a wasted opportunity to get off in a productive manner. Obama had a doover with respect to his oath of office; I suspect he will wish it were possible to have a doover with respect to this. Right now he sounds just like bush — well, without the twang and mispronunciations.
i dunno, fact sheet just kinda seems like, a ,…. nevermind.
Victorian,
Also, the MBS backing was announced as a possibility almost two weeks ago. As long as they don’t start farting around with short-selling bans, we’ll be alright.
#38
chicagofinance says:
February 10, 2009 at 9:14 am
If I get charged ANYTHING I am sacking those fools!
WTF!
WTF!
WTF!
WTF!
WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I finally sacked BOA yesterday, went with online checking / savings with ET. I got tired of paying double ATM fees and having crappy service. Now – my ATM fees are reimbursed and I get interest on my money.
“Big Bang” Theory
1) Treasury announcements
2) Fed Announcement expanding TALF
3) We also have a 12:00 Senate vote on Porkulus
4) What else, Perhaps some free space shuttle rides?
John #81,
http://www.tocr.com/listing_detail.php?tocr_listing_id=2364
Perfect mint condition Ridgewood short sale. I wonder what this guy paid for this house. It looks very nice so he must have really overpaid to throw it up in a short sale.
If you like commercial proerties in your backyard and the sound of Maple Ave.
548 BARNETT PL
It’s new construction
Deed $373,000 1/7/2003 2
Mortgage $298,400 2/14/2003
Mortgage $100,000 5/6/2003
Mortgage $125,000 5/7/2003
Mortgage $500,000 4/5/2005
Mortgage $800,000 6/6/2005
Mortgage $240,000 10/20/2005
Deed $0 9/21/2007 9/27/2007
LisPenden $800,000
ACT 548 BARNETT PL $1,399,000 8/3/2007
W-T 548 BARNETT PL $1,399,000 10/11/2007
ACT 548 BARNETT PL $929,000 1/29/2009
ACT* 548 BARNETT PL $929,000 2/6/2009
“My dog is hungry and he’s hungry for buttocks.”
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/09/16-illegals-sue-arizona-rancher/
I’m tired of hearing the word “deteriorating” with respect to housing. “Normalizing” or “Harmonizing” should be used in its place…
one “7 handle” coming right up…
uh… ya want fries with that?
sl
Finally, we will launch a comprehensive housing program. Millions of Americans have lost their homes, and millions more live with the risk that they will be unable to meet their payments or refinance their mortgages.
Many of these families borrowed beyond their means. But many others fell victim to terrible lending practices that left them exposed, overextended, and with no way to refinance. On top of that, homeowners around the country are seeing the value of their homes fall because of forces they did not create and cannot control. This crisis in housing has had devastating consequences, and our government should have moved more forcefully to limit the damage.
As house prices fall, demand for housing will increase, and conditions will ultimately find a new balance. But now, we risk an intensifying spiral in which lenders foreclose, pushing house prices lower and reducing the value of household savings, and making it harder for all families to refinance.
[120] John,
“Timmy from the Fairly Oddparents could do a better job.”
Unless you have young children at home, it is a bit creepy that you know who cartoon Timmy is.
Market plummets on bailout details.
Yeah, the O-man has the pulse of the american people. Too bad they are trying to slip his grasp.
#134 – I saw his lips moving, but was he really saying anything?
Well the plus side is that new resricted stock grants at most firms is priced this week. Timmy is making sure everyone gets extra shares by trashing share prices. I guess 100K cash in restricted stock nowdays will equal 100K in shares. Maybe when stock goes back to ten a share and these bozos cash out their 100K stock grant at a million Timmy G can explain how it happened.
Commie – I have three kids under the age of 9. Basically I watch squak box, NBR, disney and Noggin.
ChiFi: It seems every which way one turns in the world today, there is gross incompetence. This is especially the case in the banking arena. I have had to straighten out at least 5 different mistakes that were in their favor over the past 3 months.
The latest involved my NCL (norwegian cruise lines) Mastercard which was changing rewards programs. They were to send reward certificates out for all accrued points by the end of January. Since Gator and I each have a card of our own since we hit their max reward limits each year, they were supposed to send us both $500 worth of free cruise. On February 6th, I received a letter that has a one free upgrade certificate (pretty much worth nothing) and a note saying that they totaled my points and they felt bad so they would give us the one free certificate as a pseudo-thank you gift.
So I call them up furious as they owe us a grand and they say that they are aware of the problem and that they would call me back on my cell phone with a confirmation in three to five days that Gator and I will get our due rewards. I asked them why they did not reach out to us when they knew the mistake had occurred. I was immediately elevated to a manager who really said nothing more than sorry and we are overloaded. I told him that I was in a good mood today so I wouldn’t ding his FICO score the same way he would have dinged mine had I pulled the same cr*p. I’ll report back next Monday when they don’t call me back.
Mr. Market to Geithner:
You can’t polish a turd.
[138] Running Dog John,
I stand corrected.
Nom (136) –
“Too bad they are trying to slip his grasp.”
And you think the market is representative of the american people, how?
I am actually encouraged by the market drop. Anything not good for Wall St, is good for Main St.
Below 8,000 again.
Wall St. didn’t like the new world order speech.
Alright, we can get back to our regularly scheduled market implosion. What is the next round of hope that can be proposed. The stimulus bill bascially sucks so that will not get the pump monkeys out.
I do not see any good news for the forseeable future.
Hello DOW 6000!
Vic,
As Denniger points out, this program is essentially unallocated spending and a violation of US laws ( not that stops anyone).
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/779-The-Swindle-Continues…..html
Its also a great deal for hedgies. Buy 100 million in securities and use the other 400 million to short the same company who’s securities you just bought heads they win, tails we lose….
And here I kept thinking “Timmay” was the Timmaaaaay from South Park!
http://popculturespot.com/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWPROD&ProdID=634
sl
still_looking says:
February 10, 2009 at 9:44 am
Chifi 37 Got a debit card? Get money orders at the post office for god’s sakes…. WTF?? sl
I do not get charged (I think) by el Banco de America…
um, I clicked financial stability fact sheet & got fact-sheet.pdf not found…
They are being transparent.
Based on Geithner’s speech, there is no plan.
But it’ll cost a trillion dollars to do it, and we might mess up.
I better go and get my Firarms ID card ASAP. I may need to put a little pressure on Ms. Hype this week to let me do this.
Damn, we are so totally and completly ‘effed that I am starting to lose a little hope.
Anybody familiar with re-leasing cars coming off of lease? In the market for another car, exploring different options.
I do not want to part with my cash, in a purchase, so exploring other options.
First line of the fact sheet.
The Financial Stability Plan: Deploying our Full Arsenal to Attack the Credit Crisis on All Fronts.
No better way to drum up public support than to declare a “war”.
Lots of military lingo there, “Deploying our Full Arsenal”, “Attack”, “Fronts”.
MillerCoors 4th-quarter profit falls 40 percent
Are people too broke to drink? I thought it was supposed to work the other way around?
RE: 150
You can try browsing around http://www.leasetrader.com. It lets you take over someone elses lease…the other guy forks over the down payment, takes the hit, you only make monthly payments until the lease it up.
Kettle (145) –
I am not arguing for the TARP. I think the program is nothing but a elaborate looting scheme from our pockets to the banksters. Been against it from Day 1. We should just nationalize the banks, fire the management, open up their books, and end this charade.
What I am arguing for, is the need for the govt to step up their spending for a while- infrastructure, health care etc. In the meantime, we get the balance sheets of the average american household in order.
But, IMO, the bill passed by the Senate is essentially useless as dissected by CR and others – useless tax cuts, $15,000 tax credit, write-off losses against past taxes for the homebuilders etc.
If Keynesianism is not applied as it was prescribed, then it is not Keynesianism. This is a kleptocracy, pure and simple.
Timmaaaaay’s seven page fact sheet sure beats the heck out of Paulson’s three page plan from September.
Next up for the “Big Bang” at high noon folks will be the Senate vote for Porkuls.
Video Feed…..
http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN2_wm.aspx
I don’t care what you naysayers shout. It is clear that the new Depeche Mode album WILL BE the soundtrack of 2009. A fully loaded dose of doom and gloom. It fits perfectly…..it was the perfect backdrop when all the green turned to red on my screen as G-man farted all over the markets….
I do not get charged (I think) by el Banco de America…
I think that may only be “preferred customers”. BAC doesn’t charge them for cashier’s checks either.
3b “Anybody familiar with re-leasing cars coming off of lease? ”
Do they even do that? You would think the repair costs would make it cost preventative for the dealer. Same reason rental car agencies sell cars after 20K on the odometer.
most people arent used to working with very large numbers. So how much is 10 trillion (rounding up from the 0.7 trillion spent so far):
AN individual would have to spend $1,000,000 PER HOUR for 1,142 years to spend 10 trillion!!!!!!
Giving about $100,000 to each household in the US would cost 10 trillion.
Vic,
I am not trying to argue with you. I agree with you in general terms. I was just pointing out additional aspects of the insanity
Question for the board…
Which is more disturbing?
John’s crush on a common root vegetable or ChiFi’s pubescent-like infatuation with Depeche Mode?
No ill will meant towards either of them, I just find both items so out of place with the rest of their personas.
#158 – Do they even do that?
Yes. Apparently it has become increasingly common in the past few months.
I have a friend who works as a higher up for a large Honda dealership(s). Since the cost of leasing a new vehicle now has to include a significant risk premium (huge depreciation/stronger yen/etc) many people can’t afford a new lease even if they want one. Their option is to extend the current lease they have.
This same friend had a lease that was expiring and wanted to get a Pilot. Said Pilot would have cost around $300 a month 2 years ago, it is now $600 a month. He opted to extend his current lease.
#158 stu: I don’t know, it was just a thought on my part.
I don’t have it all down, but check out these stoked 2009-style lyrics………Booya.
There’s something magical in the air.
Something so tragic, we have to care.
There’s a strange obsession that draws us nearer.
We don’t understand it and it never gets clearer.
There’s something mystical in our genes.
It so simplistic, it kicks and screams.
We have something radical in our hands.
Nothing logical to our plans.
155#, sean, it is not a fair comparison.
Paulson had only 3 days but Timmy (and Summers) has 70 days (since O was elected) to come up with something.
>Timmaaaaay’s seven page fact sheet sure beats the heck out of Paulson’s three page plan from September.
Could you imagine if Timmy’s speech wasn’t of the prepared variety?
Timmaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyy!
165#, also if you look at broad credit market, january has been a good month. the urgency is not that high as last september.
Fact sheet looks like a comprehensive list of goals.
Not so much a plan with any kind of detail.
#162 toshiro: I wonder if they would do it for a new party.
In other words the lease expires for the old party, the dealer now has a used car he needs to sell, with probably a high residual, but the automakers and dealers focus is getting the new inventory off the lot. And the nec invemtory is where the deals are.
As taxpayers, we’re going to be sitting on this multi-trillion dollar “three legged stool”.
My only hopes are that the legs are pointing downwards when we’re asked to take our seats.
hummer is doing $5k rebate for 2009 models. i am looking for a new manual shift SUV. anybody knows other deals?
#165 bi: Mr. Paulson admitted that he and the Fed had been planning for over a year to deal with any financial disaster.
Do realtors even pay taxes anymore? That would imply they actually are selling homes.
grim says:
February 10, 2009 at 12:09 pm
As taxpayers, we’re going to be sitting on this multi-trillion dollar “three legged stool”.
My only hopes are that the legs are pointing downwards when we’re asked to take our seats.
chi 147
recall: I walked in at 3:35PM and at about 4:05PM I walk out without my checks!!!!!!!!!
what’s your time/aggravation worth?
sl
“As taxpayers, we’re going to be sitting on this multi-trillion dollar “three legged stool”.”
Could have been worse…could have been one of those single post twist to raise stools.
No suspension of mark-to-market?
Or is Timmay saving that one.
#169 – 3b – That’s a good question. I can’t saee the dealers being happy about acquiring more used inventory (via expired leases) when they can’t move new inventory.
I have a lease ending in Nov. but I was planning on buying new with cash.
Actually I love Depche Mode, back in HS when there were record stores and an amazing hot girl who worked in the store had me buy Depeche Mode and of course I bought it without even knowing who they were and loved it. Malibus, OO7s, Spies and Camaflauge were great places to wear your parachute pants to do the new wave thing. I actually got a B once in a rare class that I acheived an A average. Class was Tuesday and Thursday at 8am and usually I spent Monday at China Club or Camaflauge and Wedsday always Camaflauge. Geting home at 5am Mon and Wed and being at a 8am Tues and Thurs class was very very ugly. I looked like an unshaven corspe without sunglasses in this guys class. Now if I was at CC in city it was WooHops at 4:30am and Bell Blvd it was White Castle at 4:30am. Either way stinky, buts lots of depache mode either way.
chicagofinance says:
February 10, 2009 at 11:55 am
I don’t care what you naysayers shout. It is clear that the new Depeche Mode album WILL BE the soundtrack of 2009. A fully loaded dose of doom and gloom. It fits perfectly…..it was the perfect backdrop when all the green turned to red on my screen as G-man farted all over the markets….
3b, want the world’s most reliable 14 year old car? We can do an unlimited mileage lease. $100 per month/36 months. 40MPG and low low low insurance costs. And one cupholder is still useable. I’ll glue a compass to the dash and we’ll call it the built-in GPS. You must drive stick.
Nothing is due at lease signing and you can keep the car at the end of lease.
still_looking says:
February 10, 2009 at 12:18 pm
chi 147 recall: I walked in at 3:35PM and at about 4:05PM I walk out without my checks!!!!!!!!! what’s your time/aggravation worth? sl
Still steamed. I had a function at the Hilton in MetroPark yesterday and needed two scotches to chill out when I got there…..
BC ,
once again as you have pointed out, Mrs Wantanabe is hosed
Due to 20 years of ineffective deficit spending, Japan has perhaps the highest national debt relative to GDP in the developed world (about 170% of GDP). One important difference between Japan and the US is that Japan’s debt is mostly financed domestically whereas the US debt is largely financed abroad. Japan has been able to service its enormous debt because its citizens are disciplined savers who dutifully buy government debt even at interest rates close to 0%.
My question is this: As unemployment rises in Japan due to the collapse of its export oriented economy, fewer and fewer citizens will have disposable income to invest in government debt. Under these circumstances, how is the Japanese government going to finance itself without raising interest rates to attract foreign investors? Won’t elevated interest rates in turn wipe-out most if not all of the government’s operating budget?
it’s called hurry up & wait.
#151 – Lots of military lingo there, “Deploying our Full Arsenal”, “Attack”, “Fronts”.
#168- Fact sheet looks like a comprehensive list of goals. Not so much a plan with any kind of detail.
Another big rush into treasuries.
Perhaps we’ll see mortgage rates dip back into the 4 range again.
John says:
February 10, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Actually I love Depche Mode, back in HS when there were record stores and an amazing hot girl who worked in the store had me buy Depeche Mode a
Bell Blvd it was White Castle at 4:30am.
JJ: I think a lot of people don’t get it. I always genuinely liked DM, but the amount of mileage I got from “the cool people” and really good looking girls was the super bonus plan. Then you add to the fact that they have kept churning out relevant stuff for years. The thing is that I am a European guy and a NYC guy. These guys are Bruce Springsteen over there, except in the UK. They are U2 without being abject phonies and sellouts. Go ask LOSTINNY…..
JJ: I still remember when White Castle on Bell Blvd was the only thing open in Queens after 2AM. We would shoot pool and drink beer across from the Murray Hill shopping center in Flushing on our first breaks from college, and then have a stack of slider and those disgusting shakes….
Clot, Dl
Can you even imagine what would happen if the so called experts came clean on the economy? The average go is so far out of the loop i still hear people debating recession.
Now imagine the experts start telling people how far we have to far and what the consequences are… How about Obama standing at his podium explaining how the american standard of living will and must decrease, that we are not the beautiful people.
would be fun to see even if it wont ever happen
#179 stu: For me it would be perfect. For my daughter I have to do a little better.
My neighbor is selling his 1995 H1…
35K, he’d probably take a wee bit less.
This is the real Hummer.
For whatever that’s worth.
3B…If you change your mind ;) The offer will probably still stand for the next 14 years, but I can’t guarantee I’ll throw in the GPS. :P
#156 – chifi
gloom & doom? not quite yet. hm, how about sexy narcissists stuck in their own navels? who does being pretty hurt? in other good news, a new Pet Shop Boys too! it’s going to be a very melancholy on the dance floor in ’09. for ’10 Short the pop, go long Tool.
Stu:
You compared your Camry? Corolla? to a Prius as far as MPG….
A Prius gets about 50 MPG. Mine gets 46 and I drive it like you don’t want to be anywhere near me.
Senate moves economic recovery plan big step forward, passing $838 billion bill that must now be reconciled with House version
#183 grim:Perhaps we’ll see mortgage rates dip back into the 4 range again.
So if I continue to wait to buy a house, I will receive the following.
1. House prices that are continuing to decline even as rates decline.
2. A 4% mtg.
3. A 15k tax credit.
It is all about you 3b,it’s all about you.
Can’t wait for this stimuless to pass, and obama to give another speech tonight proud that he got that and the bank rescue plan done today. maybe he’ll top it off with a big banner behind him that says “mission accomplished”
Oooops Sorry
1995 Honda Civic
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/11700.shtml
36 MPG average
ithink,
maybe we get a new RATM album
The Prius:
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/22016.shtml
46 MGP average
#177 toshiro:I have a lease ending in Nov. but I was planning on buying new with cash.
Just my opinion, but I would hold onto the cash.
Actually, believe it or not a ford crown victoria contains the highest percentage of north american built parts of any car sold in america. As such it uses the least fuel to produce as parts are transported the shortest distance to the manufacturing plant. The Prius has parts shipped from all over, in particular the batteries are very heavy and lots of fuel is consumed to ship them and build them. If you factor in total fuel used in making vehicle AND by driving vehicle and average length of ownership then a for the average 3-4 year lease owner a Ford Crown Victory will use much less fuel that a Prius. Ain’t that a kick in the nuts to the tree huggers who drive the prius.
Spam,
I had an 81 VW jetta diesel as my first car, got 50+ MPG. Of course i could only hit 70 mph going down hill on the highway…..
the enigne was 87Hp
#22
“According to Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) (PA-11), in mid-September of 2008, the United States of America came just three hours away from the collapse of the entire economy. In a span of 2 hours, $550 billion was drawn out of money market accounts in an electronic run on the banks.”
this is why I was so adament about gov’t intervention at the time. they f’d it up in a way, but doing nothing was not an option at the time
BTW my brothers 82 Rabbit Diseal stick shift with no air conditioning used to do 55 mpg, he sold it for $500 bucks with 190K on the odometer and running like a champ. Over 25 years later and the Japs can;t break 50 in the prius shoebox.
Spam…check the manual transmission. I still get 40 MPG every time! Plus the car cost me $13,900 complete. Honda Civic Hatchback DX I think.
John.
If people were willing to accept an 87Hp engine then 50 mpg is easy
#39
““We need to send a clear message that Massachusetts and other states shall not impose their sales taxes on New Hampshire businesses,” Lynch said.”
HA– typical Mass attitude. I am glad NH stuck it to them
chi at #156;
While I love Depeche Mode, I tend to believe that Robert Smith of The Cure is the true “master of mope”
Joy Division. That is all.
#205
mope = sarah mclaughlin
that’s depressing music.
the cure’s output over the last 10 is what’s depressing.
BTW why exactly do I care about gas milage? Most people who work in city barely drive, maint, deprication, repairs and insurance are more important. Plus if you get better milage you drive more so what is the point.
http://www.mpgillusion.com/
Replacing a car that gets 14 MPG with a car that gets 17 MPG saves as much gas for a given distance as replacing a car that gets 33 MPG with a car that gets 50 MPG (about 100 gallons per 10,000 miles). MPG obscures the value of removing the most inefficient cars. A 14 to 20 MPG improvement saves twice as much gas as a 33 to 50 MPG improvement.
#197 – Just my opinion, but I would hold onto the cash.
Oh, I know what you mean. I’d just prefer to avoid any debt whatsoever for the foreseeable future. I don’t have any currently and the thought of acquiring some leaves me a bit uneasy. I was only planning on a Fit, so no big expenditures.
Dead Kennedy’s, Blotto, Sex Pistols, Clash, Ramones, all pretty cool. Except when I saw the Clash the lead singer was two hours late and tried to cause a riot by telling all 10,000 people to storm the stage as he does not believe in assigned seats, right after WHO concert Festival Seating incident too. But man that guy could rock. Joe Strummer baby say hi to Sid Vicious for me.
exactly what are you going to do with car cash?
[204] skep,
Actually, typical of a lot of states. I am surprised NJ hasn’t tried similar stuff as they are just as slimy, if not more so, than the Mass. DOR.
Mass. taxation used to make sense, and they made a lot of inroads in the 80’s and 90’s but now have backslid into taxachusetts again
BC,
He echoes your points:
5. Five Deflationary Forces to Watch Now
Zimbabwe. Wheelbarrows full of dollars. Hyperinflation. Barely a day goes by without someone warning me of the hyperinflationary collapse hanging over our heads.
A couple of weeks ago it was Morgan Stanley (MS) ringing the hyperinflation bell, warning that “with policymakers around the world throwing massive conventional and unconventional monetary and fiscal stimuli at their economies, we think that it is worth exploring the black swan event of very high inflation or even hyperinflation.”
Which is true, but misses the point. And what is the point? Demand.
Look, the reality is that the economics of credit creation is no different than the economics behind the creation of all goods and services. It’s a story with two sides: supply… and demand.
Perhaps because the secular credit expansion comprised a span of more than 20 years, many people, including Washington politicians and mainstream economists, are making the mistake of focusing only on the supply of credit. The demand, they assume, will always be there. And that is a false assumption.
Yes, inflation will one day be a reality, but that reality is so far into the future it might as well be behind us.
Meanwhile, there are at least five deflationary forces in the present one should focus on, leaving the inflation concerns for a future date, because a person could go broke preparing for inflation when we are barely a third of the way through a deflationary debt unwind:
1. Including the underemployed, we have a “real” unemployment rate of nearly 14%.
2. Thus, labor costs are rapidly diminishing.
3. Meanwhile, inventories and capacity remain extraordinarily high.
4. And credit is tightening even as credit demand is plummeting.
5. Finally, these changes in consumption are secular, not cyclical; driven by a combination of forced and voluntary thrift
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/ba-ms-SKS-SBUX-deflation/index/a/21045/p/1
Tosh,
The Fit is my 95 Honda Civic almost to the T. It even looks a lot like it. Dollar for dollar, the Honda fit is the best value purchase you could make on a car today. If my baby ever croaks, only had one ‘real’ repair (alternator) after 14 years, then I would immediately get the fit. But if you don’t get the manual transmission, you will be sorry. I test drove the automatic Civic when I bought mine and was scared to leave the parking lot of the dealer to merge onto I70. The stick isn’t exactly greased lightning, but I can make it move if I need to…as long as the AC is turned off!
Surprised to see bi pop his head in here today. This is the kind of day where he usually stays away.
#184
when I was in my first week of college there was this really sleazy dorky junior who lived down the hall who went to Choate or some other similar school and skipped 2 grades so he was like 19 but a junior. anyway, his room was loaded with high end booze and for about a week he was the most popular guy in the dorm until people figured out other sources for liquor. He was way into Depeche Mode everyone thought it was really depressing. That is my main association with the band.
HEHEHE(214) –
Nice article, Thanks!
Where’s bi?
“No better way to drum up public support than to declare a “war”.”
Well, in the last administration, we had a War on Science, and a War on Reason, not to mention the War on Tarra.
Why not a War on Fiscal Responsibility or a War on the Prudent? When the ittesponsible far outnumber the responsible, they have to turn on someone.
Clot,
He came in ahead of the gubmint announcements. It appears that his black box remains in good working order. Looks like we are inching further away from 25 and closer to 90 on the SRS.
“Could you imagine if Timmy’s speech wasn’t of the prepared variety?”
It is a shame Timmy is not stuck in a well. Lassy would probably find him anyway; darned that dog.
#215 – Thanks stu, that’s exactly what I want from the Fit. I would absolutely get the stick.
Stu (221)-
I am feeling especially good today. I thought Tax Evader was going to get caught in the klieg lights, but he underperformed way beyond my wildest hopes. I was waiting for him to say “pay no attention to that man behind the curtain”, but the underlying message was clear. These guys have no plan, no strategy, nothing. Now, they don’t even have Klink and his chutzpah to hide behind.
Back to enormous .vix, end of days, endtimes, decline of Western civilization. Burn, burn, burn.
I purposely went to the CNBC dopes to get their take. It appears the mote may be lifting from their eyes. More than a frisson of panic there today.
probablly this is the last opportunity for my friend stu to exit his SRS without incurring losses.
re 176
Mark to market
Would it be a good investment strategy to disqualify from purchase any company that supports rollback of Mark to Market?
If I recall, some of the major financial firms announced they do not want this step taken.
We need to challenge bi to go away forever- a la WWF- if SRS can hit 150 again.
Bi…
Tee hee hee.
I declare today: Meat Puppet Tuesday.
Porkulus went hog wild.
Check out the latest additions from the Senate.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c111:5:./temp/~c1116IyP0I::
But he will want something in return Clot. I laid out a pretty darn good deal for him on the 25-90 tip. Perhaps he’ll bite on the SRS must reach 0 for you to go persona non grata if he’ll go at 150?
Sean,
Link doesn’t work.
Sean,
Your link didn’t work so I updated it…
http://tinyurl.com/stimulusplanupdated
Okay. We are in DEEP debt as individuals, as states and municipalities , and as a Federal Government. Many businesses are in debt, and, in many cases, unable to pay the interest on that debt.
People who are either laid off, fearing same, or just uneasy about the state of the world are cutting back, which hurts the businesses, which are already in deep trouble.
Okay. We are in DEEP debt as individuals, as states and municipalities , and as a Federal Government. Many businesses are in debt, and, in many cases, unable to pay the interest on that debt.
People who are either laid off, fearing same, or just uneasy about the state of the world are cutting back, which hurts the businesses, which are already in deep trouble.
And John’s Stimulus
http://tinyurl.com/johnsstimulus
Lets try this again:
Okay. We are in DEEP debt as individuals, as states and municipalities , and as a Federal Government. Many businesses are in debt, and, in many cases, unable to pay the interest on that debt.
People who are either laid off, fearing same, or just uneasy about the state of the world are cutting back, which hurts the businesses, which are already in deep trouble.
tosh/stu, the fit is cool little car but i always thought the best thing about it was the automatic transmission with paddle shifters, if you havent tried it yet, go for it, like playing a really good video game.
i have the 07 civic auto and cant get my avg gas mileage up over 27mpg except if i go on a long highway trip.
Porkulus Link
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.1:
Click on [H.R.1.AS2]
Third time is the charm?
Okay. We are in DEEP debt as individuals, as states and municipalities , and as a Federal Government. Many businesses are in debt, and, in many cases, unable to pay the interest on that debt.
People who are either laid off, fearing same, or just uneasy about the state of the world are cutting back, which hurts the businesses, which are already in deep trouble.
So, there are weeks when, as John might say, “the markets are bouncing up and down like a hooker in the back seat of a 1975 Thunderbird with crush velour seats.” Here and there, there seem to be opportunities for folks to make money activly trading. But, for the long-term investor, where is the value? Who can point to any overall STRENGTH in the economy to justify higher values for just about any stock?
As bad as things have been, what happens to the Dow, or other indicies, as long-term investors start throwing up their hands and walking away? Are we back to the 1970’s market? If so, what does that portend for RE in this area?
I know I am not Mr. Sunshine, but it is hard to see anything but downward pressure on RE around here. HEck with the sidelines, a bunker might be more apt.
Veto,
How many horses. Mine is 102 I think. I read about the paddle shifters, but it seems like one more thing to break. I like to buy my cars stripped.
Grim,
Please kill the phantoms above.
211.
John,
you mentioned Blotto. No one remembers Blotto. The Clash got booed off stage in Philly opening for The Who by all the philly rednecks. Classic Rawk still reins in Philly.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29120681
Speaking of cram downs.
$650,000,000.00 for Digital TV boxes.
How is that stimulative?
All this car talk, I need a new alternator on the land rocket, 4.5 hours of labor, crowbar to subframe and all, plus parts. I’ve stopped making non essential repairs and directing an equivalent amount to a new-used car account but the alt needs to get done.
RE: “i am looking for a new manual shift SUV.”
BMW X5. BMW sales are down 36% this year.
I do think the admin is wise not to take punitive actions against CEOs. Since their strategy is to encourage private capital, I can imagine a lot of CEOs getting forced out by investors over the next 1-2 years, and the parachutes will probably be a lot smaller.
RE: H1 “This is the real Hummer.
Fun to see people attempt driving them through toll lanes — there’s about 1 inch clearance on each side.
#198 Straw
Again?
“parts are transported the shortest distance to the manufacturing plant.”
That would be the manufacturing plant in Canada?
244 Shore,
Darwin will win anyway… our govt keeps doing this and we are surely doomed.
sl
RE 245
Heard the new digital signal is either all or nothing. A lot of folks in the boonies that got by with fuzzy reception are now in a bind.
Stimulative for satelite and cable companies? :)
Where are those boxes made?
China?
X5 is not an SUV. I’d be afraid to put a bag of potting soil in the hatch if it even has one.
I said north america
PGC says:
February 10, 2009 at 1:51 pm
#198 Straw
Again?
“parts are transported the shortest distance to the manufacturing plant.”
That would be the manufacturing plant in Canada?
RE: “X5 is not an SUV.”
True, guess it’s an “SAV.” Heh.
http://www.gizmag.com/go/5974/
I would think you can get a four door hardtop wrangler with a stick at a decent discount.
blotto
I wanna be a lifeguard!
Muzak, Elevator Music Provider, Files for Bankruptcy (Update1)
Email | Print | A A A
By Michael Bathon and Dawn McCarty
Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) — Muzak Holdings LLC, the company that made “elevator music” famous, sought bankruptcy protection from creditors.
The company, based in Fort Mill, South Carolina, listed debt of as much as $500 million and assets of less than $50,000 in Chapter 11 documents filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Delaware. Muzak said 14 affiliates also will seek bankruptcy protection. Muzak subsidiary Muzak LLC said it has assets of as much as $500 million.
Muzak supplies businesses with more than 2 million songs and music to set the ambience for customers in their stores, hoping to persuade shoppers to become buyers, according to its Web site. Muzak was founded in 1930 by General George Squier, who adapted military messaging technology to deliver music into the elevators to reduce the onerous noise they produced.
Muzak’s $220 million of 10 percent callable bonds due in 2009 traded at 75 cents on the dollar today, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The securities traded at about 91 cents on Jan. 8, Trace data show.
The 30 largest consolidated creditors without collateral backing their claims are owed a total of $375 million, court papers show. U.S. Bank National Association is the largest unsecured creditor as indenture trustee for Muzak’s 10 percent callable bonds due in 2009, 9.875 percent callable bonds due in 2009 and 13 percent callable bonds due in 2010. The total amount due under the bonds is $371.3 million, according to court papers.
The case is In re Muzak Holdings LLC, 09-10422, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Delaware (Wilmington).
This cannot be good, Wal-Mart is where you go to work after you have been laid off from a real job.
Wal-Mart Lays Off Workers from Home Office.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., began laying off 700 employees at Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club home offices this morning, according to two sources.
Ed Clifford, president of the Bentonville/Bella Vista Chamber of Commerce, said he began hearing of the layoffs about 9:30 a.m. today. He said the effect of the action will be widespread across Northwest Arkansas.
A woman who said she lost her job today as a recruiting coordinator for Wal-Mart told The Morning News that she was called into a meeting at 8:30 a.m. with a group of other people from her department and was told that they were among 700 people being laid off.
Those being laid off were given packets with information about severance arrangements and escorted from the building, she said. They will be allowed to come back after hours to retrieve personal belongings and clean out their desks, she added.
“You could tell who was leaving because we all had our folders with us,” she said. “It was very quiet.”
Messages seeking comment have not yet been returned from Wal-Mart.
*
Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas, said the job losses would have a “multiplier” effect.
“It’s never good news and particularly when you talk about a bedrock company like Wal-Mart that has such a multiplier effect in the community, where each job lost affects other jobs, because people don’t shop or eat out.
“It is bad out there. I don’t think it’s hard to overstate right now just how bad it is. Consumers have a complete lack of confidence because there is no safe haven — no job is a safe job.”
Wal-Mart Stores posted a 2.1 percent increase in same-store sales in the U.S. in the fourth quarter. Deck said though Wal-Mart is performing relatively well in the retail sector, “the company must be thinking strategically about costs and its work force.”
#258 – Sand between my toes
White stuff on my nose…
You were referring to the same Blotto I was thinking of… not very punk though.
Stiff Little Fingers ftw.
Plus the Prius really looks like an old shoe with wheels.
http://tinyurl.com/priusprototype
140 hp on the ex but it feels like 90 for some reason. I agree on the stripped approach, i had a 4cyl vw gti manual for 10 years, drove it into 140k miles but unlike hondas vws break often, i may have replaced every part on that car, except engine of course, german engines last 400k miles but what good is it when steering wheel comes off in your hand?
anyway, yeah paddle shifters sound like a repair liability for sure but really very fun and easy to use.
The only car I’ve ever driven that had impressive paddle shifters was as expensive as a house.
All others were nothing more than sluggish automatic transmissions with wheel mounted paddles offering shifting suggestions to the trans computer.
“but what good is it when steering wheel comes off in your hand?”
Funny, prior to buying the Civic, I test drove a used Passat. The center of the steering wheel little fell off when I was turning the wheel. When I returned to the seller, he asked what I thought…I then handed him the missing parts to the steering wheel.
My dad had awesome BMW that also was always in the shop. I passed my drivers test in it.
grim,
F-car?
Shore,
Welcome to the Nompound, please state how many fire arms you will be bringing and their calibers. personal body armor and non-lethal munitions are encouraged as well ;)
please remember that all members of the nompound are required to carry at all times. The first violation results in a verbal warning. The second violation results in expulsion.
All electronic devices shall carry strong encryption at all times unless said device is to be physically destroyed immediately after use.
Any sightings of steroid enhanced llamma’s in yankees attire should be reported immediately as there is a suspected terrorist organization with known designs utilizing llamas in a nefarious fashion.
Thank you for your cooperation and please enjoy your stay at the nompound
Agreed.
True paddles are affixed to the steering column.
I have steering wheel mounted paddle shifters that are completely useless since I can’t shift down/up unless the steering wheel is still or I’m driving in a circle.
I’ve used them maybe a dozen times out of boredom. Sport mode ranks higher on the fun scale.
[267] Kettle
Where I’m from, the Yankees ARE a known terrorist organization.
Doesn’t the Element have the paddle shifter option as well?
[267] ket,
I had to scroll up to see what you were talking about.
Wow, look at SRS go ;)
So it appears that the financials were feeling pretty good about getting all of the bad debt removed from their balance sheets. So good that they were willing to no longer accept tarp money.
Now that the bad bank idea is off the table, how long before they go begging again?
Why isn’t this much in MSM?
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2009/02/is-obama-politi.html
ABC and MSNBC gave this short shrift. But essentially putting the Census directly under the Chief of Staff is an ominous portend. It says “fcuk your bipartisanship, we are coming and taking your women and food.”
I predict that within one year, we will be hearing about the Michigan Militia again.
It looks like the IMF is in better shape then we thought. This just arrived in my email box.
– Dear Beneficiary,This e-mail is brought to you from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We write to inform you That your name was short listed and forwarded to Barclays Bank Plc. for compensation with the sun Of (US$2,000,000.00) from our Offshore Account with them, Barclays Bank have been mandated to Take charge of all the commercial foreign debt settlement.After due vetting and evaluation of Your contract Inheritance files from Africa.After final deliberation with (IMF) In collaboration with United Nation delegates (UN), as well as All concerned International monitoring and security Organization.We contact you to confirm if You have successfully received your total compensation sum of (US$2,000,000.00) or not, Barclays Bank Plc will provide you with secured services and Payment advice. Note, your transaction has been limited and the Access ID (code) is (IMF-1-44-9-11-UN) and if Any group contact you over this compensation excises please ask the group for your Access ID( Code) and if not as same as this consider it unsolicited and don’t respond to such group.We would restore your access to the fund as soon as you give urgent attention to this Information’s and we have referred the release of your fund to the authorized institution Barclays Bank Plc which will pay you while United Nation (UN) will monitor all transaction.You are advice to forward to Barclays Bank Plc your receiving Account. Where you want your Compensation sum of (US$2,000,000.00) to be remitted meanwhile you don’t have to pay any charges to receive your fund anymore as you have met up with the whole requirements.Any complain should be forwarded to This Office Note: this compensation exercises are Expected to be resolved before 20th of February 2009.We apologize for the inconvenience.Yours Faithfully,Dr. James Washington.Secretary of State (IMF)
[267] ket,
You are really having fun with this, aren’t you?
In his apperance today, Geithner looked like a junior congressman from midwest. I hope he should grow his beard, remove military terms and wearing a pair of glasses in his next big TV apperance.
paddle shifters on nissans and hondas are not the same ones used on f1 cars.
And as i found out during the test drive, if you red line a gear and forget to hit the paddle, it automatically changes you into higher gear to save the engine from exploding shooting rods through the hood, which is a good thing…
[274] stu
Wow, what a deal. How can you pass that up?
[snark]
277
Nah, that’s the fun! I don’t WANT the car to upshift for me; let it bounce off the limiter, that’s what the fuel-cutoff is for.
My experience with Hi end German cars and paddles would be a story more suited for Forum.
Bi –
Please make sure that you stick around here during market hours. You really have an effect on SRS.
paddle shifters on nissans and hondas are not the same ones used on f1 cars.
Nor are the transmissions.
Nothing more than a marketing scheme, executed brilliantly by the auto marketers.
“IMO, we’re looking at a minimum of another 30% down before we hit bottom. Straight back to 200-2001 prices, with the inevitable overshoot at the nadir.”
Wow, you use to beat people up about predictions like this when you first started coming around.
TV is so addictive, if you want to get people spending, just go digital right now w/o warning. People will FIND the money to get their TV back on. Tack on a $10 surcharge to “pay down the deficit”. They will pay that too. And if they don’t- at least we didn’t waste millions.
plume (273)-
I always liked the Michigan Militia.
There are only a few cars with true F1-style gearboxes on the market. BMW has a few, as do Ferrari, Maserati, Alfa Romeo and a few other makers.
Unfotunately, they have not fared well in the US market because in the full-auto mode, they are not as smooth as traditional torque-converter automatic trannies.
(280)-
Post of the day.
But, today was worth waking up for because Ron Paul laid the smacketh down on Bergabe.
Anybody got a link to the video yet?
281#, no matter what, srs is a sucker. dow is re-testing it low. but srs is only 20% from its low, 80% off from its high.
splunk (283)-
Lotsa water under the bridge between then and now.
I also felt uneasy about RE agents in general back then. Now, I pretty much hate all of them.
And I am one.
#286 – That is the general consensus of the F1 paddle shifters. Great for the track, no so much every where else.
Having said that the Audi/VW DSG gear boxes are supposed to be super sweet and very smooth. Basically giving you the best of both worlds. I haven’t had the opportunity to drive one though.
Bi…Only a sucker for the impatient.
tosh,
Nothing is worse than sitting in a performance car and listening to the monotonous drone of an engine strapped to a tc/auto trans.
“We are going to do everything we can to help responsible homeowners… stay in their homes,” Mr. O-bama said at a town hall in Ft. Myers, Fla., his second campaign-style event in as many days.
*********
and thus the GOP resurgeance begins
275 nom,
yes
Bi (288) –
You are assuming that we did not sell at/near the high.
grim says “nor are the transmissions.”
you know more than i thought. nissan cvt paddle shifters are actually the same technology used on a ten speed except the chains are all rubber bands and pulleys making it feel like you shifted even though it only has one gear, when you are done beating on it smells like the clutch and tires are on fire.
Ron Paul and Bernake today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAEx1jBaJp4
Looting in India.
Subhiksha Trading Services said about 600 of its discount food stores and warehouses were vandalised across the country, after it admitted it was on the verge of collapse as it had “mucked up on not raising equity”.
http://www.rediff.com/money/2009/feb/10shops-looted-as-indian-retailer-fails-to-pay-bills.htm
DJIA is at the dangerous 7900 level. It has always bounced off this line over the past 4 months. I’m no TA expert (actually I think it is complete cr*p), but I do know that once a serious support level is breached, it’s usually a bleak outlook. Longs should pray for the market to finish above 7900.
Kettle: Ref 185. When our tax dogding Treasury Secretary gets on national TV and essentially says: “Plan? We don’t need no stinking plan!” That should be enough to tip off the markets that we are getting ready to spend the next three generation’s wealth in an attempt to return to 2006. Sorry to say, most Americans believe time travel is possible.
[280] John
My experience in a Subaru, driving on the lower deck of I-93 south into Boston, is better suited for Forum, or perhaps Car & Driver’s new “Don’t Ever Do Someting This Stupid” segment.
I invoke the A-Rod defense.
[299] stu,
I agree, and think that there is something to TA, so if this is breached, we are looking at the third leg down (and its not on Timmy’s stool).
stu everyone with a restricted stock award that has not been assigned a strike price is praying the other way. Next week we can have a bull market.
Stu,
Just a guess as i am a TA newbie, but 7700 seems to be the magic number now. 7700 was hit in Oct 2002, once we go below that it looks like 59XX is the next bottom
bi says:
February 10, 2009 at 10:51 am
whenever politicans start to talk bail-out, market declines right away. as i said before, this is not a bail-out but a bait-in. washington wants to create a panic so they can get more money to spend. i expect one day dimon, lewis or pandit will come out saying “barak, enough is enough. don’t mention bail-out any more. give your money to your acorn friends.”
bi, you asshat.
next time you post, can you form an original thought instead of receiving talking points from the republican talk radio clowns?
thanks.
Is third leg, tranny talk?
[285] clot,
You may get your chance to join up.
“most Americans believe time travel is possible.”
Well it sure feels a whole lot like last October.
Now what was that day that Cramer posted on his wall that claimed was the market bottom?
#255
“I said north america” and that is why I call you “Strawman”.
Your post indicates that Good Ole US Crown Vic has a lower carbon footprint.
So If i ship an engine from Mexico to Canada, you are right I have not left North America. And if the Mexican plant has shippd in piston rings, bearings etc from China, its still a North American engine.
You didn’t think Mike Morgan would watch today’s kabuki of absurdity without chiming in, did you:
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/2009/02/tim-tax-cheat-running-with-scissors.html
You know, “stool” isn’t a half bad description of the current stimulus plan.
little timmy should be tied to a chair and forced to watch 2 girls 1 cup looped for a few days
Stu,
The more times resistance is touched the less resistance it maintains. At least that’s what John keeps telling his secretary.
30 Jul 2008 (Cramer’s announced bottom reached)
DJIA = 11,583.69
15 Jul 2008 (Cramer’s called bottom date)
DJIA = 10,962.54
Today = 7900 (Cramer will most likely blame it on unforeseen circumstances)
If you thought you heard Cramer call a bottom during Tuesday’s Mad Money, you were right.
“It smells to me like something, in fact many things,” he said, “have at last changed for the better.”
“I am indeed sticking my neck out right here, right now,” Cramer continued, “declaring emphatically that I believe the market will not revisit the panicked lows it hit on July 15. And I think anyone out there who’s waiting for that low to be breached is in for a big disappointment, and [they’re] missing a great deal of upside.”
“Stop waiting,” he said, and “buy the next dip because I think it might be the last big one.””
if you dont know what that is DO NOT google it if you dont have eye bleach
If more then a dozen people know what kettle is talking about then really I mis-pegged the crowd here.
Zieba,
I travel in many and varied circles….
The Wikipedia description was enough to make me disinfect with a bottle of Knob Hill.
Watching other people watch the most disgusting video of all time.
http://www.slate.com/id/2182833/
inching toward 7800 …
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/09/16-illegals-sue-arizona-rancher/
i just want to say that whoever posted this link above really pissed me off with this.
the judge has to be the biggest assclown on the planet. you enter a country illegally and you have rights? WHAT THE FU*K is going on here?
clot, any room in that costa rica compound?
the most disgusting video of all time
2 banks 1 TARP?
2 girls 1 cup. I haven’t heard that mentioned in years. Yes, it is pretty gruesome.
yikes,
see my post @ 267
So, according to some, when the weather warms up and its comfortable to riot, people will come out in hordes and kill each other?
I have heard this theme on talk radio and on the blogs. Really dunno what to make of it. Really, riots in USA?
While I’m not that pessimistic.. I think its only getting worse.
I am against guns and can never get myself to use one. I hated ’em when I tried the shooting range.
Here’s my question: Is getting a dog a good alternative to a gun? c’mon, don’t laugh, I’m serious.
#324 – They’re supposed to be a great deterrent to crime, but you’d really need a big doggie.
I like French Bulldogs, I don’t think they count.
Clot Nom,
How about you 2 call a truce, Nom runs the Nompoud in the US and Clot runs the Clotpound in CR?.?.?.
7’s keeps getting touched nothing wrong with that.
However there is a bit of a butt plug at that level so that bottom has a lot of reistance.
As long as the cherry can hold out till 2010 I am fine with it being knocked around a bit.
HEHEHE says:
February 10, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Stu,
The more times resistance is touched the less resistance it maintains. At least that’s what John keeps telling his secretary.
I don’t care who runs the compound in CR, as long as I get my own hammock.
305#, yike, have u heard this in a neocom talk radio?
3:40pm, time for the PPT to pull out their bag of tricks?
vodka (326)-
It ain’t gonna be a Club Med.
If I do it, I’m gearing up for the end of days.
this should add to the fun in CA this summer
Shrinking Water Supplies Imperil Farmers
MENDOTA, Calif. — Dwindling water supplies are compounding economic woes in California’s Central Valley, causing farmers to leave fields fallow and confront the prospect of going under.
The state’s water supply has dropped precipitously of late. California is locked in the third year of one of its worst droughts on record, with reservoirs holding as little as 22% of capacity. On top of that, a federal judge in Fresno last year issued a ruling in an environmental lawsuit that could restrict diversions to farmers by as much as one-third, as part of an effort to save an endangered minnow, the Delta Smelt.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123423167165366189.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
[326] Ket,
Makes sense. And we would have reciprocity of course, maybe even issue visas to each other’s residents.
PPT better save their tricks for tomorrow when world markets collapse. Can’t wait to see China tonight, who were supposedly speculating on the success of Obama’s stimulus to turn their economy around. Their market is up almost 18% on the year. FXP baby!
The market is now open.
-400. Cool.
Stu (333)-
I’m actually much more juiced over FXP than SRS.
Me too. I’m about 40/60 FXP/SRS this time. Don’t want to put all my eggs in one basket this time around.
Nope no-one wants the mkt up this week.
HEHEHE says:
February 10, 2009 at 3:38 pm
3:40pm, time for the PPT to pull out their bag of tricks?
333#, to me it is another serious mistake betting against chinese stocks. that is why i said MM is a loser.
RE; 338
**click, click, click, click…**
Sounds of mouseclicks everywhere as people pile in to buy FXP following bi’s post.
FXP below 40 looks like a party to me…..
#337 John: Funny if the market was up today, you would have said it was to be expected due to the new TARP, stimuseless plan etc. You know the whole mustard seeds thing.
If one didn’t know better, one might suspect that John is a bagholder of some type.
3b,
I was thinking the same thing, but didn’t feel the need to say it. I’m glad you did.
Pre-bell puke-up.
Starting to feel like Sept/Oct.
Is getting a dog a good alternative to a gun?
The theory is, criminals will go the path of least resistance. Why rob House A, filled with a loud attention-getting dog, when you can just rob House B?
actually, we’re all bagholders. only difference is some people got houses out of this thing
“Starting to feel like Sept/Oct.”
Monsieur Vix is up 7%.
“7’s keeps getting touched nothing wrong with that.”
“However there is a bit of a butt plug at that level so that bottom has a lot of reistance.”
John,
Bottom, resistance? HMM, maybe support?
That’s OK, old floors become new ceilings.
Sometimes the old floor just gives way.
BC –
Are you still hedged? I still have a funny feeling that this is a bear trap.
BTW,
I tried linking to a stockcharts gallery page for Stu and it “refused” three times. No mod, no error, just boots to main page. Is this by design?
vic [350],
Hedged in gold and some shorts. Am I wasting $?
Which one Zieba, not the historical stuff I hope.
This is one of my faves
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia2000.html
Goota say things are fracked when Marketwatch starts quoting Trading Places.
//Quote Major indexes are hammered 4% to 5%, with The scene was reminiscent of the movie “Trading Places,” with Wall Street traders waiting for the announcement from Treasury and then all hell breaking loose. (At left are Dan Aykroyd and Eddie Murphy, in character as Louis Winthorpe III and Billy Ray Valentine in the 1983 film.)
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Check the market watch dot come headline, quoting a scene from Trading Places.
Timmmmay made a big impression.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?sid=3467319&symb=FAZ
You super short freaks gotta love FAZ
“Check the market watch dot come headline, quoting a scene from Trading Places.”
Sean,
Did Beek’s deliver the wrong report to Timmy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-M8A1GmniP4
kettle1 says:
February 10, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Stu,
Just a guess as i am a TA newbie, but 7700 seems to be the magic number now. 7700 was hit in Oct 2002, once we go below that it looks like 59XX is the next bottom
I can only hope that we will not see DOW in 59xx range….
Right now EVERY company laying off thousands to ten’s of thousands. At some point buisnesses will just lay off everybody but CEO’s – Great Savings!!!
I am seriously worried about my job right now (well, come summer)…..
Anybody here is happy and confident that they are not at risk – except Stu – 009 agents are always needed.
No, no, it was a really good public page with bounce after bounce right on pre-drawn trendlines.
Nevermind, it never appeared on the page, I click submit and it boots back to main page. If it’s by design I’m more than fine with it… I was just curious.
A dog is better if your wife knows where to rub the peanut butter.
Actually, I really don’t care about stock prices. I am not cashing out my 401K for 25 years so I really don’t worry about that. I think misguided Tim and Ben think success is if citi, bac or JPM don’t go bankrupt so I really only care about that. I think those dopes will invest taxpayer cash to keep them afloat. BTW 2008 I piled into munis and have not sold any of the ones I bought they are all up which helps balance my other bonds which are underperforming. In the end I clip the coupons and so far I have not had any dog I bought in 2008 or 2009 go under. Ain’t no FAZ up 25% today but I ain’t gambling. I am too chicken to even buy pref stock right now in my taxable account.
schabadoo says:
February 10, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Is getting a dog a good alternative to a gun?
The theory is, criminals will go the path of least resistance. Why rob House A, filled with a loud attention-getting dog, when you can just rob House B?
Random question – How hard is it to create a new municipality in NJ????
Let’s say 100% residents of a certain area want to separate from the township they are in right now and form their own town???
Grimtown?
#344 stu: Somebody has got to try and keep the guy consistent.
I am happy to oblige.
“I am too chicken to even buy pref stock right now in my taxable account.”
John,
Better to be a live chicken than a dead duck.
Al, people need a phat playa like me all da tyme.
Tomorrow’s headline:
O-BAMA HUMAN?
DJIA closed at 7888.88.
interesting number
Eight is considered a lucky number in Chinese culture because it sounds like the word “prosper” or “wealth.
Let’s see how lucky they are when the Shanghai composite opens up tonight.
Grim – I am feeling disingenuous today. Can you please let me know if 36 Madison in GR is UC or withdrawn? If it’s UC, when is it expected to close?
#366 skeptic: Although I truly did want O-bama to succeed, it appears he and his team may be down and dead right after the gates opened.
Today does not bode well for him going forward.
thats a good one stu, this one is nice too…
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#chart6:symbol=^gspc;range=19760701,20090209;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off
Seven
Seven is considered spiritist or ghostly. The seventh month of the Chinese calendar is also called the “Ghost Month”. See Ghost Festival for more detail. During this month, the gates of hell are said to be open so ghosts and spirits are permitted to visit the living realm. It is not commonly associated with luck.
I was not kidding when I say the Stimulus should go into building Retirement/Internment camps for the Baby Boom Generation.
Anecdotal, been reviewing some family members investments. Lots of gloomy 201k talk from them, so they have lately been quizzing the kids and cousins on what to do. I tell them to send over a synopsis of their holdings, and offer to tell them what kind of questions to ask their “professional” investment advisor.
So far three have taken me up on a look and see.All three have a handful of years to go before retirement are still heavy into equities greater than 70%, including emerging markets and some really craptastic mutual funds. After all the fracking talk I gave them about the housing bubble over the last two years and coming deflation, the loss fear factor got the best of them and they took no action, when they spoke with their investment advisors. They sat there and took it like a bunch of sheep.
Smith Barney, and Fidelity as well as those tools over Amerprise, these folks are ripe for a nice class action lawsuit for doling out some of these investments.
This is all going to end in a giant supernova of lawsuits and gunfire and suicides.
Gator,
Under contract, last list price was $399k.
Last sale? 07/16/04 $445,000
Thanks, Grim. Was it originally listed for more?
The best plan is have all people who foreclose or go bankrupt to be drafted into the military. That’s the only way you can teach these overconsuming pigs a lesson.
New Jersey Landscape Project Map Book
http://www.njfishandwildlife.com/ensp/mapbook.htm
Upcoming training
http://www.njfishandwildlife.com/ensp/landscape_train.htm
of course, excluding certain exceptions.
Sorry this is the chart…
http://tinyurl.com/cobykg
376 to unmod please.
….
no reason to build camps, there’s plenty of +55 pleaces to go around for the boomer camps. mind you, the +55 may not ‘technially’ be around as they all file for revals & qualifications in 2009-2011 to be low-income housing but seems like it’ll fit the bill at this rate.
Funny, saw this one web.
A meeting at the White House –
Nancy Pelosi – I have a plan to spend 1 Trillion Dollars
Harry Reid – I have a plan to spend 850 Billion Dollars, and my plan is better
Tim Geithner – I have a plan to spend? Well I do have a plan, but I’m not telling anyone what it is.
Nancy Pelosi – No my plan to spend money is better.
President Obama – Relax there is plenty of tax payer money for you all to spend whatever you want with or without a plan (way to go Tim)
#369
“Although I truly did want O-bama to succeed, it appears he and his team may be down and dead right after the gates opened.
Today does not bode well for him going forward.”
***************
3B– I agree completely. It is hard to understand how these guys did not come up with a comprehensive response after over 2 months of planning (and Geithner has been working on this for even longer).
Unfortunately, I think today was their 1 shot to demonstrate that they could get control of the situation. Now I am afraid that anything they say is going to be met with immense skepticism since it will appear as though it is just another step in the ad hoc meandering we have seen thus far.
I think the market recognizes that by missing this opportunity the chances of bank nationalization just grew much higher
he is just a bobblehead. he is a fantastic speaker, but his head is even emptier than old george bush.
The Property Tax Dilemma
Home Prices Still On The Decline, Yet Property Taxes On Rise In Many Area
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/02/10/earlyshow/main4789971.shtml
The New Jersey home first hit the market last year with a listing price of $385,000. Now it’s selling for $279,000.
“he is just a bobblehead. he is a fantastic speaker, but his head is even emptier than old george bush.”
He’s GWB on steroids.
Call your state legislator. Tell him to get off his/her fat azz and pass this bill.
http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2008/Bills/A1500/1282_I1.HTM
Remember, its your life, not theirs.
and if it expired (don’t know the bill status), tell them to reintroduce it.
#240 Shore – I agree with you. The change in the economy has been so huge that we really can’t grasp it. The last 6-12 months have caused a fundamental shift in the way people look at their money and their lives. Most people don’t understand money or markets and so trusted others who told them that over time, markets always go up and they should sit tight and continue to invest. Now they’ve lost 40% of their assets. That trust will not return for a generation. Debt will be retired, consumption will be reduced and we will have a long slow slog along the bottom. I think RE will continue to decline, as will equities. I no longer expect a dramatic crash, more of a slow steady bleed-out. I’m not even sure that all these trillions thrown into the wind will lead to inflation. Just a gut feeling, but I think they will just disappear into the void. Maybe I need a drink. It’s five o’clock, right?
Sean says:
February 10, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Smith Barney, and Fidelity as well as those tools over Amerprise, these folks are ripe for a nice class action lawsuit for doling out some of these investments.
Sean: I would have thought the same. However, a securities and compliance attorney based out of Princeton that specializes in mediation and arbitration basically told me that only the most egregious stuff is going to get litigated. Everything else is going to be dismissed.
As an example, he mentioned a mentally impaired individual with a special needs trust was managed by someone who put 50% of the money into SIRI stock……..THAT is a lawsuit.
Just his opinion, but he knows a heck of a lot more about that kind of stuff that I do.
#388
Something has to give for all the trillions of $$ thrown at the problem. This is a closed system.
Outofstater says:
February 10, 2009 at 5:03 pm
#240 Shore – I agree with you. The change in the economy has been so huge that we really can’t grasp it. The last 6-12 months have caused a fundamental shift in the way people look at their money and their lives. Most people don’t understand money or markets and so trusted others who told them that over time, markets always go up and they should sit tight and continue to invest. Now they’ve lost 40% of their assets. That trust will not return for a generation. Debt will be retired, consumption will be reduced and we will have a long slow slog along the bottom. I think RE will continue to decline, as will equities. I no longer expect a dramatic crash, more of a slow steady bleed-out. I’m not even sure that all these trillions thrown into the wind will lead to inflation. Just a gut feeling, but I think they will just disappear into the void. Maybe I need a drink. It’s five o’clock, right?
Out: RE is fcuked in NJ. The financial services sector is fcuked. However, don’t get caught flat-footed. Do not extrapolate what is going on in your daily environment to everywhere else. The monst extreme example would be clot who is shoveling $hit all day long, but he is hedged correctly.
#390, 391 Zack and Chi – I know, a closed system, and don’t extrapolate. I know and that’s what bothers me. Maybe I read this blog too much and I know I don’t have all the information or the expertise to figure all of this out. Today just felt like some sort of horrible turning point but I don’t know why. God, somebody break out the Tarot cards and mix up a vat of margaritas.
“Do not extrapolate what is going on in your daily environment to everywhere else.”
So very true wise ChiFi!
When we were in Vermont recently, we went out to dinner with another young couple, one of whom Gator knew from high school. They said that for the most part, the recession had not impacted their Burlington VT livelihood. There were few layoffs up there and they appeared to have much less of a service based economy. When we told them about how many of our friends were collecting unemployment, they couldn’t believe it. From their perspective, if they didn’t watch the news, they wouldn’t even realize that there was a recession. Upon returning, someone posted an interesting chart which revealed unemployment numbers for each state. Vermont was second from the bottom.
So what ChiFi is saying is very, very important.
somebody break out the Tarot cards and mix up a vat of margaritas
…. hmm, let see here. I’ve got The Tower, and The Tower again (that’s odd) crossed by The Tower with The Tower as signifier…. wow, that shouldn’t happen.
tosh,
Ever seen “Father Ted?. There is a Tarot card reading scene in the show (Irish TV) that you just channeled, the show is hysterical. Well, it was funny when I watched it in Ireland 10 years ago after a dozen pints….
#389 – Chicago – yeah probably true in this age of no consequences, and even if there are class action settlements the monies will be too little and to late.
Anecodotal again but apparently there is a bubble forming in suicides.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1878044,00.html?xid=rss-topstories
The ammo bubble is already in play along with the divorce bubble.
#395 – RayC – I’ve heard of it but haven’t seen it. I think WLIW used to show it over here.
Stu says:
February 10, 2009 at 5:30 pm
So very true wise ChiFi!
Stu: so I am wise and pubescent in the same day…..no wonder I am so fcuked up :( ;-)
Outofstater,
I hope you didn’t listen to Bloomberg radio between 4:30 and 5pm. Connor Browne of Thornburg investments was being interviewed. Not only did he echo almost everything that was discussed here today, but when asked whether or not we would experience a depression, he said we are are already well past the start of it. He said that Paulson, Bergabe and Timmay are doing exactly what the Hoover administration did in 1931. He said the similarities are just too eerie. Scary stuff from a value fund manager. All of the other value fund managers I’ve heard recently keep saying that it is time to dip your toes back into the equity markets.
If you want someone who has a different perspective, I would suggest Zeke, who is a some time CNBC Fast Money Trader. I wouldn’t call him a bull, because such a description is rather insipid. I think an optimist is a better word.
http://www.rivertwice.com/
tosh,
Yes they did play it, and if your ever feeling especially sacrilegious, then its a good watch.
From Ritholtz:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/timmie-in-trouble.png
Martin Wolf piece in the Finanical Times. He leads off with;
Has Barack Obama’s presidency already failed?
wow.. from the above piece
” it is extraordinary that a popular new president, confronting a once-in-80-years’ economic crisis, has let Congress shape the outcome”
dead on
Newspeak:
Toxic securities are now called “legacy assets
-bergabe from the Paul/bergabe face off todat
Sweden’s Banks Need Money, Too
Sweden is frequently held up as the best example to follow when it comes to bank crises. In the early 1990s, after a burst real estate bubble pulled the rug out from under the financial sector, the Swedish government quickly forced banks to write down their assets, tap the state for capital and sell possessions to repay taxpayers. Although the current crisis is nowhere near this bad for Sweden’s lenders, the economic slowdown in Scandinavia and the Baltic states is pushing banks like SEB–and now Nordea–to recapitalize once again.
On Tuesday, after reporting a disappointing fall in fourth-quarter net profit of 25.2%, to 637 million euros ($820.9 million), Swedish lender Nordea was the latest to propose a rights issue to raise cash. The bank is looking for 2.5 billion euros ($3.2 billion) in capital from shareholders, and said it would cut its dividend to add an extra 500 million euros ($644.3 million) to the pot. It has already obtained guarantees from its three largest shareholders–the Swedish government, Sampo and Nordea-fonden–that 49.0% of the rights issue will be taken up. JPMorgan Chase and Merrill Lynch will guarantee the rest.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/10/nordea-seb-sweden-markets-equity-0210_banks_6.html
Interesting article
http://mpettis.com/2009/02/will-china-have-to-choose-between-social-stability-and-long-term-growth/
Stu,
You should be happy about this, china getting pumped up for a even harder fall
-from my link at 407:
Reuters has just announced that net new lending may have actually been and even more surprising RMB 1.6 trillion – twice the previous monthly record and an amazing one-third of credit growth in all of 2008. We will know by February 15 at the latest, when the PBoC publishes lending data, but if this is true (and the report was seen as highly credible by one of my friends at Reuters) it will probably goose the stock market up further while making people like me more worried then ever
Air freight drops as global trade siezes up
The scale of the downturn in world trade was underlined by figures on Tuesday from airport operator BAA showing a 16pc plunge in cargo moved by air. BAA, which runs Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted airports, said the number of tonnes of air cargo declined by 15.9pc in January, on top of a 15.1pc fall in December. The airport operator said cargo volumes are dropping at all UK airports as a “direct result of the global economic downturn”. It said freight volumes in the whole of 2008 were down 1.4pc compared to 2007, largely due the sustained drop at the end of the year. It comes as the cost of sending cargo by ship has dropped to virtually nothing on some routes.
Lloyds List, the shipping newspaper, reported last month that spot freight rates for Asia to Europe fell to zero last month as shippers were prepared to carry some goods for free just to keep their ships in operation
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/4577816/Air-freight-drops-as-global-trade-siezes-up.html
“Martin Wolf piece in the Finanical Times. He leads off with;
Has Barack Obama’s presidency already failed?”
SCATHING article….and so early in the O’bama presidency. If Martin Wolf is accurate, then BHO had essentially One Good Week. It all started to come apart very early on.
Clotpoll says:
February 10, 2009 at 3:43 pm
vodka (326)-
It ain’t gonna be a Club Med.
If I do it, I’m gearing up for the end of days.
you say it with such conviction! I want you on my team, man.
if there’s an NJ compound, and the internet is down, how will you guys correspond with the PA group?
#399 Stu – No, I didn’t hear that piece but I am reading “The Worst Hard Time” by Timothy Egan – it’s about the Dust Bowl and when he talks about the economy back then, he could be describing present-day events. Maybe that’s what’s got me so spooked. Today for the first time ever, I honestly thought we were in a Depression. Thanks. You helped me connect the dots.
Zack says:
February 10, 2009 at 4:31 pm
The best plan is have all people who foreclose or go bankrupt to be drafted into the military. That’s the only way you can teach these overconsuming pigs a lesson.
a bit harsh, no?
and Sean, what did Ameriprise do? we use them and so far it’s been pretty good …
OT: Hunter tugged at my pant leg and said “Da-pess Mode time?”
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
I don’t that Big O had a choice…the team made demands…he played it right…went out for a schmooze. We already know the dice are loaded and he is simply a figurehead…with some limited…but significant influence. I would rather have a beer with him than the other guy fwiw.
hey if you think O has played it right, then I guess you agree with everything Bush did in his last 6 months because this is basically the same thing.
FWIW, I would much rather have a beer with W. back when he was challenging H.W. to go “mano a mano”
Question for the compound crew. I would like to be prepared for the inevitable social unrest. I have 2 questions:
1. What do you all think is the barometer or breaking point for the average American. In other words, when do people stop watching and start carrying pitch forks.
2. For self defense what weapon do you recommend?
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orl-bullets1009feb10,0,2201778.story
Anyone seen SAS???
sl
Clot, I was thinking the Pine Barrens would be an excellent place for a compound. Some of the purest fresh water on earth from the cohansey aquifer. Plenty of Deer, moderate climate, access to the ocean for fish and transportation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Barrens_(New_Jersey)
Why does Geithner remind me of a lousy actor from a 1950’s B movie?
[crickets chirping….]
hello? anyone home?
sl
wow…. message got eaten by the ghost!
I’m here ;)
Stater (392)-
Today was a very big day. You get the feeling John Q got a peek behind the curtain…and saw that nobody has a clue, and nobody is in control.
RE: SRS
Stumble up on an interesting post on another forum.
The decay rate is around -1.625% per trading day. Considering the
standard deviation of these funds is around 16%, it’s not good to hold
Formula for decay rate:
[(FAS_now/FAS_start)^(1/(n-1))+(FAZ_now/FAZ_start)^(1/(n-1))/2 – 1
n: number trading days (68, since inception)
For FAS and FAZ:
((8.14/49.15)^(1/(68-1))+(49.68/74.41)^(1/(68-1)))/2 – 1 = -1.625% per
Day
Std Dev: ~ 16%
Std Dev/Decay ~ 9 trading days (~2 weeks)
For UYG and SKF (dividend-adjusted over last 68 days):
Std Dev: ~ 11.5% (6.3% since inception when things weren’t so
volatile)
Decay: -0.766% (last 68 days)
Std Dev/Decay ~ 15 trading days (3 weeks)
ProShares / Direxion should start a [(e^x) – 1] ETF so that up days
cancel out the down days equally!
fire (426)-
All the 2x shorts work fine. Investors need to understand that these ETFs track DAILY movement and require volume, .vix and momentum to deliver outsize results. You can roll along for weeks at a time with 40-60% paper losses and be sitting on a double or triple within 10 trading sessions.
Once you can get comfy with the mechanics of them, it’s still a wild ride…but immensely profitable, if you can manage to keep your lunch down.
fire (426)-
You want precise tracking? Short the indices.
Stu (399)-
I heard that, too. The guy was so calm, he spooked the crap out of me.
Also saw some interview in The Atlantic where a Harvard economist said we’re all fcuked and sorta implied Lawrence Summers is a dope.
Correctomundo Clot.
I’m so sick of hearing the tracking error BS. It’s daily, not perpetual and the VIX is the juice. I don’t care if I get all my gains in one day and I’m down the other 364 days. There are many better opportunities to daytrade than SRS. I’m playing a long-term macro-economic trend. The black day will come and when it does, it’s party time. Who’s house? Stu’s house! Patience my friends. Gotta get it put it in you!
james (419)-
Do you really think so…or do you just want to marry your cousin without sticking out like a sore thumb?
And one last piece of advice for many of you here. Do not watch CNBC! Immediately change the channel to Bloomberg and you will find yourself learning instead of praying. It’s refreshing to think for one’s self once in a while. Let it be what separates you from the rest of the sheeple.
You all should read this.
http://nostimulus.com/?q=facts
Wow, just watched the Taleb, Roubini interview on CNBC? Taleb spoke for about three minutes and said absolutely nothing. I also don’t see Roubini as Dr. Doom, more like Dr. Reality. It’s really a shame that he he has that moniker. I suppose vitually every other economist/analyst out there should be dubbed Dr. Optimist. And why does everyone on CNBC always speak at the same time. It’s worse than trying to have a conversation in the area of the cafeteria where the theater majors choose to sit.
In a big case of “Poetic Justice”, I was given/won a copy of the new Springsteen album.
I though I should give it a fair listen and I still stick by my assertion that his best work is behind him. In his own words:
“Well surprise, surprise, surprise
Yeah surprise, surprise, surprise
Well surprise, surprise, come on open your eyes ”
There was however one realization for me. There was a few fragments from Clarence Clemons that evoked the Asbury Park days. To me he was the sound that made the early Bruce days.
James,
Didn’t the so called non-partisan AFP hold a conference titled rightonline last year to combat left wing blogs and their use of new media?
Hardly a fair source to site. Where were they when Paulson announced Tarp 1 and W was pushing his stimulus checks?
We are not like you here. We don’t simply accept what people preach at face value. We are not sheeple. Peddle you partisan crap someplace else.
Clot,
The VIX is killing the leveraged ETFs.
Say you have $100 invested in SRS and $100 in the underlying index. If the index goes down 5%, your investment goes down 95 and your SRS goes up 110 (in theory). The next day the index goes up 10% = 104.5 and your SRS goes down to 90, the following day the index goes down ~4.4% = 100 but your SRS goes only to 97.9 – decaying
Correct me if I’m wrong
Sleeping. Read
The next day the index goes up 10% = 104.5 and your SRS goes down to _88_, the following day the index goes down ~4.4% = 100 but your SRS goes only to 95.7 – decaying
Just received an email from my landlord asking if we would be renting again when our lease is up (not even up for another 5 months.) He said if we do renew, there will be no rent increase.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9NajXfntSA
Just listen from 2:17 for about 30 seconds.
Don Harrold is so right as usual.
Disclaimer: I have never sent the man a penny nor do I take any of his trading advice. I just enjoy his videos.
Stu,
Whats the matter? I linked a site against your Messiah. Maybe you are a sheep just like the disciples of the chosen one in this video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01MNZBTt4K4
Firestorm…you can call it decay, tracking error or just plain corruption. All I know is that I bought in with an average price in 2007 around 80 and sold out with an average price around 200. Praise the tracking error! I hope it tracks incorrectly again.
It’s not a tracking error not corruption. It’s simple math :(
fire (437)-
That’s the way they work. No argument with your math.
However, I accept that fact, because when things line up right, these ETFs go parabolic.
State Street also clearly explains these issues to investors who are careful enough to inquire (in fact, you don’t have to inquire; the prospectus- and even message boards- are chock full of info on the parameters and tracking mechanisms).
Clot,
That’s right, but you have to time “when things line up” no further then 3 weeks after the moment you buy it, otherwise it might decay faster than “things” finally happen :(
I am no disciple of Obama, as a matter of fact, I am a registered Republican. I supported Obama during the election, not because I thought he was the messiah, but because W betrayed my country and myself. He caused so much irreparable damage to this country that it is simply unfathomable. I would have happily voted for the McCain of 2000. Unfortunately the McCain of 2008 looked exactly like the W of 2000 and of 2004. I hoped Obama would be different. He too lied and deceived just like every one before him. On the bright side, as he and his fellow Democrats ruin the country further, at least he can articulate his lies better than his predecessor and I am not embarrassed simply by his terrible command of the language as was the case with W.
See James? I can readily admit when I’m wrong and have been deceived. You, my friend, simply intend to deceive!
I never felt ill will towards the Germans for exterminating half of my fellow Jews, for they were deceived. They were simply sheeple. Their commander, on the other hand was the enabler and simply plain evil. Just like Saddam…right?
Fire:
Or you just hold until things line up for you, even if it takes a year or two. Patience (and risk aversion) is the key to investing. Too bad everybody requires instant gratification at any cost!
Sidley stimulus bonds give abusive tax shelters, hedge fund frauds; `long’ in Merrill Lynch destroyed by pump-and-dump shorts to clients e.g RBC-Dexia
http://tinyurl.com/atklu6
Anyone here interested in purchasing my “legacy assets?” (i.e. – worthless shit piled up in my garage).
Dink says:
February 10, 2009 at 10:54 pm
Just received an email from my landlord asking if we would be renting again when our lease is up (not even up for another 5 months.) He said if we do renew, there will be no rent increase.
Dink: Inquire about a rent cut. Don’t be lazy. Earn your rent cut. Back it up with market comps…..empty apartments are even better.
I offered my legacy asset to 3B earlier today. Oh wait, my 14 year old Civic still holds some value.
ChiFi:
Stay away from my tenants you!
Ford’s Model T, the working man’s car, could be bought for around $300 in the 1920s. A more upscale manufacturer, Studebaker, advertised their “Big Six Touring Car” for $1750. It had seating capacity for seven with a big six cylinder engine that “would not lose power on any hill.” Studebaker’s stripped down model went for $975.
The 1920’s DJIA peaked on 03-September-1929 at 381.17. Ford stopped manufacturing their Model T in 1927, but I suspect that working class cars could have been purchased for what the Dow went for at its 1929 top. The same could be said for the DJIA on 09-October-2007’s $14,146.
If one only looks at car prices, it would appear that the DJIA (without dividends) broke even after 80 years of inflation. But James Grant, an authority of credit of the 20th Century, would note that car loans for consumers were not common in the 1920s. In other words, most Model Ts were cash purchases from savings. This was not the case in October 2007. DJIA in 2007 could match the cash price of a modest car, but not the total cost when interest payments from car loans are included.
– Mark Lundeen, The 1929 & 2007 Bear Market Race to the Bottom, Report #69
Chi,
I’m thinking about it but I don’t know if I want to push my luck. Based on comps, we’re at at least a 15% discount right now. They fully intend on moving back, so they are happy with having a tame, no children married couple keeping a look after things while their away.
HEre is some interesting stuff on China Kettle1.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29130016/
“China May Cut Taxes to Aid Light Industry”
“Help for the Homeowners?”
http://tinyurl.com/cf4no6
kettle,
see my post at 448.
have fun with that one.
you may have noticed, sometimes I speak “SAS^spanisms”
have fun
SAS
Dink says:
February 10, 2009 at 11:32 pm
Chi, I’m thinking about it but I don’t know if I want to push my luck. Based on comps, we’re at at least a 15% discount right now. They fully intend on moving back, so they are happy with having a tame, no children married couple keeping a look after things while their away.
Dual: Just remember that asking rents are the same as asking prices. Just because you see it listed for a certain price doesn’t mean it will rent for that price. EVERY property dropped their rent. Some only $100, one dropped $600, and we still said no….our final deal was a property that dropped $400.
Fire,
Didn’t I see you on the Yahoo boards? Trying to educate the masses there about the very same thing?
You’re not wrong, you just need to know your audience.
The divide between the empty heads at CNBC and Roubini/Taleb is stunning:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29103328
CNBC needs to fire everyone sitting at that desk, and start over.
Stu writes — “as a matter of fact, I am a registered Republican.”
I hate politics on a RE board, but this seems unlikely. Which general “republican” policies do you support?
In fact in this very thread you wrote: “As for being green, my 14-year old Civic that gets the same mileage as the new Prius more than shields me from the wrath of my fellow liberal Montclairions.”
As for ‘ordinary’ Germans during World War II, see:
Hitler’s Willing Executioners: Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0679772685
7888.88 Ouch! But also an interesting looking number.
Stu,
The whole issue of Germany and complicity in the holocaust hasn’t been fully explained in the 64 years since the end of the war. In the 80s, it was Chancellor Kohl who planted the idea that it wasn’t the Germans who were responsible, but that evil NSDAP, as though they were aliens who landed from Mars and hoodwinked the Germans. The Germans, he maintained, suffered under the NSDAP as much as the rest of Europe; an idea that leaves anyone beyond Germany’s borders shaking their head in disblief. The Holocaust Museum in DC has a section where one can listen to survivors stories and the ones who experienced it never refer to those who perpetrated the acts against them as NSDAP members but Germans. I’ve lived and worked with Germans over 30 years and hear what they say when they don’t think outsiders are around. It was not just an evil leader fooling good men and women living in fear; it the took active support and participation of an entire society. Anyone, adult or child, who was alive at that time and maintains they didn’t know what was happening is not being truthful. I’ve had many a midnight conversation with WWII contemporaries over beer and in moments of honesty they admit what they saw. The man who set fire to the synogoge in my wife’s home town was proud of what he had done till the day he died.
re Taleb on CNBC – Stu, he emphatically made the great point that the same people are running things that screwed things up to begin with. he used the example of giving a pilot who had crashed a plane, a new plane. his saying that these people have to be booted before anything will improve, was wonderful.
re Burlington: I have a friend who works at the UVT in Burlington as a librarian. they’re having layoffs, and she’s worried re her job.
ithinkithink: re earlier thread – you had mentioned having kitchen tiles that were from school cafeterias and hallways (it sounded like you meant reclaimed ones). I looked into that because I love the old linoleum (the real stuff) and the new versions are so expensive. unfortunately the old linoleum is full of asbestos, so test first.
the German populace, alas, knew plenty, and was thrilled.
Hype –
You’ve definitely come over to the dark side (firearms!)
Still have that Valium available? May take you up on the offer when we return to Montclair.