From the NJ Department of Workforce and Labor Development:
New Jersey Gained 13,000 Private Sector Jobs in July; Unemployment Rate Rose Slightly to 9.3 Percent
Employment in New Jersey grew in July, led by a gain of 13,000 jobs at private sector companies, ending a string of 17 consecutive monthly contractions dating back to January 2008. The private sector growth was tempered by a decline of 7,100 public sector jobs. The state’s unemployment rate in July was 9.3 percent, remaining below the national rate of 9.4 percent.
According to preliminary estimates from the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s monthly survey of employers, nonfarm wage and salary employment in the Garden State increased by 5,900 jobs in July, to a total of 3,936,100. Over the month, six of ten private industry supersectors recorded gains while three realized losses; one was unchanged. The decrease in public sector employment was largely attributable to higher than expected summer separations in local government education.
From the APP:
Economists cautious about state report showing N.J. gained jobs last month
New Jersey’s economy added 5,900 jobs in July, the bulk of which were in the private sector, in a sign that the recession might be easing, the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development reported today.
The figures were a 180-degree turn from the previous 17 months — and, apparently, what the rest of the nation was reporting — leading economists to caution about jumping to conclusions.
“This is apparently good news. However, it’s not time to pop the champagne corks yet,” Rutgers University economist James W. Hughes said. “Last year, we had a substantial revision (after the initial figures were released). We need several months of positive data like this to establish a trend.”
The report showed the unemployment rate rose last month from 9.2 percent to 9.3 percent, its highest level since June 1977.
From the AP:
NJ’s jobless rate inches up in July
New Jersey’s unemployment rate remains at a 32-year high. However, state officials say job gains in July reversed a 17-month trend.
The jobless rate last month inched up one-tenth of a percentage point from 9.2 percent in June to 9.3 percent.
Preliminary estimates from the state’s Labor and Workforce Development Department show the state’s economy added 5,900 jobs for a total of 3,936,100.
The department says six of ten private industry supersectors recorded gains while three saw losses.
Gainers included the leisure and hospitality, construction and manufacturing sectors. Trade, transportation and utilities saw the greatest losses of 4,500 jobs.
Since December 2007, New Jersey has lost 150,100 jobs.
From the Press of Atlantic City:
New Jersey unemployment rises in July
New Jersey’s unemployment rate rose slightly in July to 9.3 percent, although employers managed to create a net 5,900 new jobs, state officials said today.
It was the first month of job growth after 17 straight months of job losses, according to the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Officials there estimated that a total 13,000 jobs were actually added in the private sector last month, but was offset by 7,100 job cuts in the public sector.
The cuts were attributed to higher losses in local government education over the summer.
“New Jersey’s private sector employment is trending in the right direction,” Labor Commissioner David J. Socolow said in a statement. “Governor Corzine’s economic recovery initiatives are fostering job creation, and the nation’s recovery program is helping to restore economic confidence.”
“New Jersey’s economy added 5,900 jobs in July”
let me guess: A&P and Safeway
SAS
“David J. Socolow”
bloke, can you kiss anymore soggy bottoms with your comments? man..what a sap.
SAS
nope, not A&P. Just a bunch of newly created state jobs for double dippers.
From Zero Hedge.
“A new monthly report released by the New York State Comptroller indicates that the tax collection weakness in Empire State continues. For the April-July quarter total tax revenue was $11.5 billion, $52 million below projection, and, more significantly, $3.6 billion below amount collected in the prior year period. For the Year To Date period, receipts, including transfers from other funds, through July 2009 of $15.7 billion were $190.9 million below Financial Plan projections released by DOB on July 30 and $4.8 billion lower than last year for the same period.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/quarterly-new-york-state-tax-revenues-drop-24-compared-2008
Departing Housing Agency Chief Hired by Financial Services Firm
James B. Lockhart III, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, will become vice chairman of WL Ross & Co., a New York company that buys billions of dollars in distressed companies and securities with hopes they can boost their value and sell them off.
First Barney Frank biography hits store shelves in September
From Bloomberg:
FDIC May Add to Special Fees as Mounting Failures Drain Reserve
Colonial BancGroup Inc.’s collapse and the prospect of mounting failures among regional lenders may prompt the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to impose a special fee as soon as next month to boost reserves by $5.6 billion.
The FDIC board might act sooner than expected after the Aug. 14 failure of Alabama-based Colonial cost the agency’s insurance fund $2.8 billion, and as banks such as Chicago-based Corus Bankshares Inc. report dwindling capital and Guaranty Financial Group Inc. of Austin, Texas, says it may fail. The fund fell to the lowest level since 1992 in the first quarter.
“With the failure of Colonial Bank and the possible near- term failures of one or two more large banks, the FDIC may be forced to levy a special assessment on the industry sooner than it had planned,” said Camden Fine, president of the Independent Community Bankers of America, an industry group.
The failure of 77 banks this year is draining the fund, prompting the agency in May to set an emergency fee of 5 cents for every $100 of assets, excluding Tier 1 capital, to raise $5.6 billion in the second quarter. The agency has authority to set fees in the third and fourth quarters, if needed, to prevent a decline in the fund from undermining public confidence.
The FDIC board has until Sept. 30 to adopt a fee that banks would set aside in the third quarter. The agency has already signaled another special fee this year.
They just opened a Quiznos near our house,
there is 7 or 8 new jobs!!!
I am sure that will drive the local economy
to robust recovery!!
Just out of curiosity, does anybody have experience living in an area where the garbage pickup isnt supplied by the town?
If so what type of fees are associated with a private garbage pickup?
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/03/11/now_needy_fdic_collected_little_in_premiums/?page=full?ref=fp1
Grim @ 7 – Do you remember this article back in March?
Congress believed the fund was well-capitalized…1996 through 2006.
9 – we pay $82 every 3 months for garbage. We have a medium sized garbage can (they supply it)–so you can go higher or lower dep on the size of the can. The other two we called were similar, maybe 85 or so.
“165 yesterday –
“There is a coyote running round Montclair.”
I thought Montclair was overrun with cougars.
9 – actually just looked, one of the garbage cos I called was $101 per 3 months. so you gotta shop around.
7:31a Hormel Q3 sales down 6% to $1.57 bln
End of the can good stock pile?What do you do with all the can goods that has a expiration date?
Dropping- we pay $180 for the year b/c it was paid in advance, otherwise $210.
SG it is called “Sufferin Succotash My Life as Criminal Lisping LiberalMary”
I can’t stand BF, for a gay man he is the worst put together mess of a human I have ever seen.
SG (6)-
That book should be titled “BOHICA”, for a whole host of reasons.
miami all over the news this am,, repeated time and time again. crisis over.
greenshoots,,,
NJ next?
Sears Holdings missed by a mile.
Wake me up when the consumer starts buying again. Until then, green shoots my hairy butt.
Unemployment numbers:
+15,000 to 576,000
Green shoots abound.
Yeah, but 576,000 is better than 600,000!
Stu,
Correct! That will be the logic behind a 1% rise in the Dow:) To the moon!
# 18 – re Miami – and the Condos that are selling.
Priced to sell. They dropped it roughly a $100 thousand under their closest competition. The final prices were half of what units sold for at the peak of the market.
I can hear them now, ” Gee, who’d a thunk it? Drop the price in half and the condos sell!”
The next housing boom. ” We sell them at a loss but we make it up in volume”.
Judging from this chart of new claims, I wouldn’t say it looks like a quick recovery. As a matter of fact, typically the unemployment charts are very parabolic. This is looking like we are in for a long slog slightly below the peak. I would expect this to be the case now that easy money from the banks is now out of the equation.
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=17996
Pretty good yielding new issue for someone just looking for yield. How can a bank make money borrowing at 10.5% for 30 years and lending for 30 years at 5%. That is a lot of interest expense. Think about it, Grannie at 60 buys a 100K Capital one bond, she gets 10,500 a year interest for 30 years for a total of 315,000 plus she still gets her 100K back. Cap one is paying 415K over 30 years to borrow 100K today.
CAPITAL ONE CAPITAL V NOTEPFD 10.25000% 08/15/2039 MAKE WHOLE
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 101.500
Yield to Worst (Ask) 10.088%
9.NJdroppingtheball says:
August 20, 2009 at 6:47 am
Just out of curiosity, does anybody have experience living in an area where the garbage pickup isnt supplied by the town?
If so what type of fees are associated with a private garbage pickup?
NJdrop: Colts Neck has two major choices. Marpal and Sakoutis. We priced them against each other. Marpal came back at $62.83 per quarter and they threw in a large dumpster. We had to bargain with both to get the price knocked down. I guess it always help to have multiple choices.
Should I be concerned if my “buyer’s agent” is telling me that I should make offers priced comparable to houses that closed in November 2008, and that house prices have been stable since then, since we’re talking about the same prestigious town that her own home is in?
Of course she’s willing to allow us to make an offer below that, but really.
When I suggest that home prices continue to fall, and sellers should be worried about their prices falling further while buyer demand shrinks during the winter, it doesn’t seem to be an argument she’s likely to make to the seller.
Is creating fear and discomfort in sellers something that I should expect a buyers’ agent to do, to facilitate lower prices for the buyer? Or should I just assume that just about every agent likes to believe their town is immune and special, because they are also representing some sellers, and have their own homes and careers at stake?
As a buyer’s agent, I would think she would be most interested in getting you the lowest price, which she could use to drum up more business. You may need to find a different one if this is not the case.
I need help. Tampa area of Florida. Anna Maria Island. Is anyone here familiar with it? Further, does anyone have a sense of the RE market down there? As an example, one data point told me that there is no market….as in zero transactions….anyone please?
re #29 – Chi you should contact this guy on Anna Maria Island, just don’t look him in the face for too long.
http://www.davidsislandlistings.com/
August West-
November 2008 is ancient history in this market. That’s 10 months ago….remember the stuff had only begun to hit the fan.
Consider that your mortgage company will insist on sold comps within 90 days. Tell your agent to show you these recent sales.
Your agent should be most concerned with getting to the closing table. Her commission check will be about 1% of the sales price. A difference of $20K in sales price boils down to about $200 in her pocket (before taxes).
Tell her to get busy !
27 west
send her packing
The end is nigh…..
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08202009/news/regionalnews/striphanger_185422.htm
19- Stu “Wake me up when the consumer starts buying again…”
I have been looking for an article I read this weekend – of course I can’t find it….anyway…the idea was this:
Share of consumption:
12% – low income
46% – middle class
42% – upper level
The idea was – We need the upper- level consumers to be able to spend money. The leveraged/debt crisis has mostly disabled the middle class. The lower 12% are not over leveraged and the upper level consumers have the funds to stay out of too much trouble and are more diversified in their portfolios so the R/E leverage did not impact them as much. Conversely, the middle class probably had a chunk of investment dollars in their R/E.
Anyway…We need the upper level consumers today because the middle-class consumers are disabled.
And what happens? The state and fed gov threaten to OVER TAX the very population we NEED to bring us out of a recession.
re #33
“People see a naked woman and they smile,” he said. “They see a penis and they freak out.”
Especially in the Village.
27 – sit with her in the office and have her print out every sale (and under contract) in that town for the past 6 months–everything not just your price range. (i say sit with her so you she what she’s doing). then do your own analysis.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/08/the-well-heeled-might-be-able-to-save-the-us-economy-from-a-long-period-of-dismal-consumer-spending—-if-only-we-dont.html
Got it: LA Times
“The consumer isn’t overleveraged – the middle class is”
clot, about to order this remington.
http://www.remington.com/products/firearms/shotguns/model_870/model_870_express_tactical.asp
you going to the GTG? i’ll buy you a knob creek.
wife and i for now are free Saturday, if it’s not a massive drive from bucks, we’re there.
Cindy (34):
Very interesting.
Yes what are the GTG deets?
re #36 Cindy The report misses a crucial point. The top 10% may spend 42% by dollar volume but not by unit volume. There are only a few million of them.
How can a few million rich create enough demand to employ everyone else?
We had the same problem during The Great Depression, this is a structural issue. When the wealth is created during boom times, the lower classes get credit not wealth.
Kettle,
Did you ask a question about owning a home close to NJT rail? Let me know because I did.
Yikes have had my 870 for almost 20 years reliable tough no nonsense gun. not the prettiest but does everything well.
Cindy is that the LA times telling us to eat cake. going to get bad real bad
More on Jobs, we are becoming more and more like France every day.
While the private sector has shed 6.9 million jobs since the beginning of the recession, state and local governments have expanded their payrolls and added 110,000 jobs, according to a report to be issued Thursday by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/20/us/20states.html?_r=1&hp
A. West [27],
Or should I just assume that just about every agent likes to believe their town is immune and special, because they are also representing some sellers, and have their own homes and careers at stake?
Bingo!! They’re tour guides always looking to make a “deal” for you while peddling snake oil on the side.
Yike this is what I’m saving up for
http://www.tcarms.com/store/icon-warlord-in-308-win.html
Between that and the 7mm Rem mag I should be able to cover a good distance at the family “nompound”
From another Blog on the Miami Condo booming sales story, seems it is a snow job.
Gang, this is a snow job by a local television reporter who did a 3 minute on air segment. He did no investigation to support the claims of the Realtor or anyone else for that matter. Where is the developer in the story?
Let me explain:
There isn’t a single plan in the bldg. that shows a 2,220 SF 2 bedroom. I reviewed all of the plans and they count air as livable SF and outdoor terraces. This is an old developer’s trick in Miami, We measure from the center of the drywall stud and anything that can be called out as salable SF is thrown in. The true size of these units are 1,1,00 SF at best. That’s right a 2 bedroom unit in 1,100 SF with no privacy in the master bedroom as it opens into the living room below.
The Developer is not in charge, the bank is. The developer most likely has been left onboard to direct the sales force to sell at all costs and get them out. Why is the the developer incentivized to help out the bank? Well the banks says something like this: “Maybe we will reduce the value of our deficiency judgement against you by a few bucks if you move this carcass of a project off our balance sheets like yesterday!” This way the Developer can go home at night and pretend to his wife that they aren’t wiped out and keep living in the same house for another 6 months.
The bldg. cost with land better than $400 PSF. That cost went much higher when buyers did not come to closing and new marketing dollars were spent and more interest on the loan had to be paid. Assume they are better than $600 PSF into this project now.
They paid Brokers 50% of their commissions in advance of closing at the peak when the contracts were tendered with a 10% deposit. These early buyers, never came to closing and the Developers lost all of the advance deposits. Assume 75% of the building was sold out and the Developer paid out 3% of the “then valued” units in cash. I would roughly place this at an initial $200,000,000 million in sales contracts and $6,000,000 went out the door to realtors never again to be seen.
The HOA expense = big ongoing problem. Now the banks says cut the price to 50% of what we have loaned on this building and get us out, the HOA fees as the majority holder of units is killing us each month. Several of the units in the bldg. of those who did close at the peak are already in foreclosure and are not paying anything towards upkeep.
Assume that a bulk buyer who has now bought several units in the bldg., lets say 10 units, has a an HOA fee to pay per unit of $350 minimum. Thats $3500 per month before he brings in a single renter.
Now, I can tell you that he is competing against thousands of units in the downtown market many with far superior views then this bldg. This particular bldg. is nestled up against the elevated track of the Miami metro rail and just below the Miami River bridge at Brickell which is a nightmare for traffic when it is raised. Also, this bldg. is in the most vulnerable of areas for hurricanes. The views are awful from this bldg.
So a $220,000 purchase price divided by 1,100 SF is really $200 PSF which is only marginally better than what units have been selling for in the last 3 months. You will note that oceanfront units on Miami Beach recently sold to a bulk investor for a 94% discount or $.06 on the dollar. these units had a luxury pool and beachfront cabanas.
Now for our bulk investor to make 10% on his money after HOA fees, RE tax, Insurance, and unit repair what does he need to charge in rent?
10 units at $220,000 = $2,200,000 x 10% = $220,000. I am going to assume that his nut for expenses is 4.07% or $8950 per annum assuming that he is all cash in the deal. That means he needs to charge $2,580 per mth per unit to make 10% assuming that he has zero vacancy, no marketing and no sales commissions to pay for a realtor bringing him a renter.
I can tell you that I can rent a penthouse overlooking the ocean for less than that in Miami right now. Also, based on a 30 year fixed mortgage at 5.25% that rent payment would be the equivalent of a $469,262 mortgage P & I payment.
Bottom line, the deal stinks and unless he can buy these units for $50,000 a piece he has no protection from renters who won’t pay after they lose their jobs, the legal and eviction costs, higher future insurance and tax costs and non-payment of HOA fees by other owners in the bldg.
Dear Sellers,
Answer: (.005 X ask price) X (weeks on market)
Question: The amount of money you are losing per week because of your riduculous asking price.
40 – Sean – I agree with you. A few million people cannot create the needed demand. I liked that the issue of middle-class leveraging was pointed out…
Couple that with the lack of pay increases for years and the employment cutbacks, and the spending majority (middle class) are out of the consumer picture for a while.
#9,
Wonderful Brigadoon does not collect trash but new customers can usually can get a deal . Intiially, I paid $20/mo. for bi-weekly pickup. After 4 years, I was paying about $35/mo. This did not include bulk items, leaves/brush or recycling. Those were separate.
gary(47),
In laymans terms, 1% per month.
“state and local governments have expanded their payrolls and added 110,000 jobs”
Stimulus at work. Good luck getting rid of them too if there ever is a turnaround.
Can anyone tell me about 264 Glen Ave. Millburn? I know the house was sale for $309k a while ago. It doesn’t show up as recent sale on Zillow. It would be a nice comp for the area.
John,
Did you pick up some of that Cap One debt?
freedy 18
just consider the MSM an extension of US Gov PsyOps at this points. As i said the other day, my russian friend is impressed with how quickly the MSM seems to be picking up KGB propaganda methods
[10] cindy
I remember that FDIC would periodically float trial balloons about raising premiums on deposits and the banks would howl, so they ran to their buds on the Hill, who howled at the FDIC.
And who did the most howling? The dynamic duo of Dodd and Frank, of course.
Incidentally, I liked the props the article gave to my alma mater. Very unusual for the Boston Globe to do that.
Thanks for the comments guys,
She’s really not bad, she’s very good at pre-screening homes to fit what we’re looking for. And after discussing, she did give me printouts for houses sold (though I can do this myself for most houses sold through July).
I think she’s just more accustomed to people who want to find a house that’s “just right” and then not caring about getting that last 5% of price, because they want to “win” that specific house. If I really liked a house and was sure I’d be there for 15 more years, I’d be willing to do that too. But right now, there isn’t a house on the market I’m in love with – thus, I pretty much only want to buy one of a few houses left if they create a new “comp killer”. Otherwise, we’ll just forget about houses for 7 months and see what’s new on the market in April/May 2010, when we’ll try to find the kind of house we really really like (and are willing to pay a bit extra for).
I think my realtor is good at finding quality and not wasting our time, and she knows the area, but I see that price negotiations isn’t her big thing – getting the right kind of house is. Ultimately, it looks like pricing is going to be my job.
By the way, I noticed a pattern in the upscale town I was looking at. Houses selling below 800k were generally selling above tax assessment. Houses above 1.2m were also generally selling at or above assessment.
Houses in between, which is generally our range, aren’t selling real fast, and the majority sold within that range over the past 6 months have been selling below assessment.
I know assessment is only a loose proxy for value, but I thought that trend was significant, and worth using in pricing decisions/ negotiations. Agent seemed strongly against using this logic, saying all homes are different, and price has no relationship to assessment.
#43 – Sean – …we are becoming more and more like France every day.
Only without the food, art, keen fashion sense, 8 weeks of vaca and Goddard.
We’ll have the puritan version, which is working ever increasing hours for less and less fun and made guilty for the little you do have.
/sigh
I put a limit order bid in at 100.5 and 101 and got rejected, they want you to limit order at the market at 101.5, I am fully invested so I am passing as I don’t want to go into margin. I may try again later in the day when they get most of it sold. Maybe with 500K to sell they don’t want to sell below 101.5 cause them everyone else will want that price.
I am shocked that Citi Bank and AIG bonds are all the way back from the bottom in such a short time. I am a big time bull and my jaw is on ground at some citi bonds trading above 100 and some AIG bonds trading in the 90s.
Alap says:
August 20, 2009 at 10:09 am
John,
Did you pick up some of that Cap One debt?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=ah718roKKF7U
Re: Tax Assessment –
I’ve found that the thing the assessor usually gets incorrect is the Land Value. The Assessment Contract is awarded to an out of the area firm (so there’s no hint of favoritism). They usually mis-apply the land value and that boosts the assessment on that Great Middle that you refer to.
Housing: No Mood for a Recovery
Amid all their talk about a bottom in the housing market, the optimists are ignoring some key facts. For one thing, the costs of ownership remain high. Prices relative to incomes and rents are still above long-term averages. Mortgages are increasingly hard to come by, despite all the taxpayer assistance lenders have received. Inventories are nearly double what they were earlier this decade, a quarter of existing homeowners owe more than their properties are worth, and foreclosures continue to rise sharply.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-j-panzner/housing-no-mood-for-a-rec_b_263305.html
Yep, watch oout for that inflation…. Sarcasm
More Evidence of Deflation
The Bureau of Labour Statistics released data Tuesday morning that confirms my previous premise that deflation is indeed active in the economy and accelerating. From the BLS:
From July 2008 to July 2009, prices for finished goods fell 6.8 percent, the index for intermediate goods decreased 15.1 percent, and crude goods prices dropped 44.8 percent, all of which are record 12 month declines.
* The consumer price index is down 2.1% year over year.
* The Federal Government current receipts are down negative 10+%; the rate of fall has not been this great in almost 60 years.
* Federal tax receipts on corporate income is down 40+% year over year; not since 1930 has the collapse been this great.
* State and local government sales tax receipts are negative for the first time since the beginning of World War II.
* Corporate profits after tax have experienced the most severe collapse in history.
* Net corporate dividends again have an historic collapse.
* Compensation of employees wages and salaries accruals – go back to 1949 to find the same level!
* Personal income is negative 2.5%, as is disposable personal income year over year.
* Personal consumption expenditures continue to dive off the cliff, as does personal consumption for durable goods.
* Total personal consumption expenditures is negative for the first time in modern history!
* Final sales to domestic purchasers, negative for the first time in modern history!
* Final sales of domestic products is, you guessed it, negative for the first time in modern history.
* Personal savings rate continues to skyrocket, now approaching $600 billion, as the general populace continues to deleverage at a feverish pace.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/157021-more-evidence-of-deflation
HEHEH 61
it sounds like they are summerizing this blog
Still holding out for inflation????
check out these charts….
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-hello-deflation-2009-8
After looking a the last 2 links, consider that we are still deflating even thought the FED and treasury have been pumping trillions into the economy. Consider what says about the magnitude of this event, when trillion pumped into the market ONLY SLOWS the slide….
via CalculatedRisk; %13.2 of mortgages in foreclosure or delinquent. Good lord.
56 A. West – I am seeing the same thing in the numbers I am crunching for Montclair. In Montclair the break point seems to be 700k – if you are selling below that, you are twice as likely to be assessed for more than the sale price.
[34] cindy,
A good, cogent article, and on point but incomplete. I belong to that cohort (barely but I am in it), and we are certainly looking hard at spending because of the tax burden and the loss of deductions.
Further, future spending may not benefit the US economy. If I were wealthy and wanted to buy a yacht, I would not do it here. Instead, I would buy it offshore and register it there, thus depriving US vendors of income and tax coffers of revenue. Avoiding high taxes and high costs is not unpatriotic (see Gregory v. Helvering), despite what some on the left think. Further, the Left’s pronounced war on conspicuous consumption for various reasons (furs being a good example, bottled water being another) may result in less consumption, but that means less economic activity, thus less redistribution of income in the form of payments and taxes. So they resort to even higher taxes to gain the tax revenues they lose, and this results in more avoidance planning, and so it goes.
In fact, it goes beyond spending, and will hit the nonprofit sector hard. I have virtually eliminated charitable giving (except to our church) for financial and philosophical reasons. Lest you think me miserly, I feel that my “giving” to society hasn’t gone down, it has simply changed form from voluntary contributions to a charity of my choice, to forced exaction by the government to redistribute income to those it deems worthy. Either way, I am paying for the “betterment” of others, so why should I give extra? This was one of the factors that caused nonprofits to oppose the redistributionist tax initiatives, including the disallowance of deductions for charitable giving (which are already constrained on upper income individuals anyway, and would be constrained more).
The economy and the public fisc relied heavily on the top 15%; now they are learning what it may be like if some of us go away. The “progressives” and populists may want that, but it becomes a case of “be careful what you wish for, as you just might get it.”
A.West says:
August 20, 2009 at 10:25 am
I think my realtor is good at finding quality and not wasting our time, and she knows the area, but I see that price negotiations isn’t her big thing – getting the right kind of house is. Ultimately, it looks like pricing is going to be my job.
A.West: Not wasting someone’s time is a big deal. She doesn’t waste yours, then show her the same courtesy in return. Further, don’t rook her at the end…….even if people think realtors are garbage, just remember, you treat them poorly, you give them motivation to treat other customers poorly.
I talk from the perspective of a professional in a public facing position, where I constantly have to avoid people who look at me as a free resource….you treat me with professional respect, I will run through a brick wall for you.
This should make for a heck of a federal bailout in the making….. Wait until a storm hits one of these “naked” states. Wait this might be good. Its one way to reduce inventory. let the strom demolish a huge section of real estate and then make sure there is no i nsurnace in place so that no one can afford to rebuild…. Genuis!
States Shed Reinsurance and ‘Run Naked’ Through Storm Risks
Several states prone to natural disasters are measuring the odds on a mega-bet. Concerned observers say those calculations are based on “Lady Luck” and “rolling the dice.” Public insurance programs in some coastal states are flirting with the notion of saving millions of dollars every year by shrinking or canceling the coverage they buy from private reinsurers — the deep-pocketed companies that insure insurers whose exposure to loss exceeds the budgets of some nations.
States are the insurers in this case. And they are either tired of paying piles of cash for reinsurance policies that are rarely needed, or too broke financially to maintain coverage that has saved state residents from paying billions in hurricane damage claims. In the parlance of the insurance business, without coverage or a hedge against their expensive risks, they are “running naked.” Here’s the bet: Save hundreds of millions with no disaster, or pay perhaps billions with one.
“It’s actively discussed every year,” John Golembeski, president of Massachusetts’ public insurance program, said of discontinuing the state’s reinsurance policy. The price this year was $80 million. In return, the reinsurer promises to pay $900 million in claims if a storm sweeps ashore. Golembeski makes sure those decisions, made by money-counting legislators, are accompanied by a weather warning: “We don’t know when it’s going to hit.”
Other states are more muscular in their movement away from reinsurance. Texas let its policy die at the end of May, less than a year after reinsurers paid $1.5 billion in claims related to Hurricane Ike. That’s not a bad return on the state’s investment. Texans paid $180 million for the policy. Texas will buck this hurricane season with no reinsurance. California is also looking to reduce its coverage. The state’s public earthquake insurance program has paid $2.3 billion total for reinsurance since 1997 — almost half of all its revenue. In return, it has collected $250,000 in claims. California wants to save its money and pay the claims on its own.
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/08/17/17climatewire-states-shed-reinsurance-and-run-naked-throug-90924.html
kettle1 says:
August 20, 2009 at 10:46 am
After looking a the last 2 links, consider that we are still deflating even thought the FED and treasury have been pumping trillions into the economy. Consider what says about the magnitude of this event, when trillion pumped into the market ONLY SLOWS the slide….
ket: come on ket……it is always flavor of the minute with you…but whatever the flavor, the dish is always doom….
Fiddy 60 – Our land values are crazy – and were assessed at about a 100k premium to homes a block away. The difference was in my neighborhood there were some high end renovated homes that sold in our valuation year. The buyer up the block paid about a 50k premium for a viking range and granite countertop. Just because he stupidly overpaid for a fancy kitchen, didn’t make our little plot of land any more valuable.
“There is a coyote running round Montclair”
I was in Robbinsville the other week and my fiancee got out of the car to get an info sheet on a house for sale. We looked over and were like, “oh look, it’s a dog. Wait, where is his collar? It’s a fox? Oh crap, it’s a coyote. He was running around in the open like it was nobody’s business.
I went to go look at a house last night w/ my sister and brother-in-law in the Hills of Somerset.
http://new.gsmls.com/publicsite/propsearch.do?method=moredetails&sysid=2703719
MLS# 2703719
They sold their townhouse a couple of months ago and have moved in (along with their dogs) w/ my parents. Baby is due in December and they really want to be in a house by then.
The neighborhood is nice….large rooms…basement is huge and has a lot of storage. They’re looking to spend between 750-800k on the house. Currently asking 900k…bought in 2004 for 885k.
Wondering what strategy / justification can be made for an offer of 750k? In their opinion…the kitchen does need some work…..for a house worth 900k…..they expect granite, stainless steel sink in kitchen, nicer floors.
In addition, the carpets must be pulled up and 4 out of 5 bathrooms are dated. To get the house the way they want it…you’re probably looking at an additional 75-100k.
Any opinions on how to attack this negotiation?
Chifi,
I agree. I’m not even thinking about doing deals with someone else. But I also would hope that my agent would be supportive of writing up a fact-based offer to sellers, explaining why they should take what might appear to them to be a low offer seriously.
This is the sort of go getter attitude I’d like to see though:
http://www.searchlightcrusade.net/2008/12/buyers_agents_presenting_an_of.html
re: coyote – My sister recently gave a kitten to her daughter won’t let it out of the house for fear that it will be killed by a coyote or some other animal.
Funny growing up as kids the two cats we had were allowed outdoors and they had scrapes with racoons, dogs, and other animals, perhaps even cayotes. They took every opportunity to escape from my sister’s clutches.
I feel sorry for that kitten having to live it’s life indoors, and I also feel sorry for that coyote in Montclair, since the suburban police are bound to fill it full of lead before the week is done.
75: West- We had a similar experience with a realtor. We got the impression that she did not want to be the one bringing down comps (as if) in “her” town. I actually think she believed what she was saying and, based on a small sample size, could present a defensible position.
29: Chi – Not familiar with the Island in particular, but with the area in general, but very possible no transactions exist. For example, Hernando Beach – north of Tampa, no transactions, none, nada – for quite some time.
enjoy chifi
http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/funny-pictures-scary-cat-noms-in-hell.jpg
WOW I just got a call from Jets, they are down to last 1,000 season tickets to sell and now they are offering tickets without the preseason. Just 8 regular games. told me lower end zone can be had for 640 a season ticket, upper for 600 a ticket. Thank God I got rid of my extra tickets.
So lets recap, Jets think they can sell PSLs for 20K with a 500 a game ticket price, so a pair costs 50K next year in a great seat. This year they are begging me to sit granted in junky seats but nevertheless at only $1,200 for a pair of season tickets which is a price anyone can afford. Anyone who already bought a PSL should file a class action lawsuit!!! Crazy, the Giants two weeks ago was selling individual games which means they did not sell out this year even without a PSL.
I am still happy I have my tickets, but am shocked at the fall in price.
Chifi
my stance has not changed in the last 1+ year. I have expected us to peak somewhere in the neighborhood of S&P 1100-1200 and then drop below 666 in a series of downward waves. I actually expect another move upwards before we start the downward series of waves.
An event/correction of the scale we are seeing its a years/decades long event. Short term traders can make a killing in a volatile market like this. I am not a short term trader. not my bag baby.
But then again this is just something i track as a hobby and claim no expertise in. anyone who listens to anything i say is likely to lose their shirts. besides i am just a high school janitor
Kettle1 – that is some deflation.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCNS
What you are witnessing is “disinflation” which is likely to LOOK like deflation, don’t be fooled just look at the price of oil.
I hope the advice you charge for is better than the advice you give here.
chicagofinance says:
August 20, 2009 at 10:55 am
A.West says:
August 20, 2009 at 10:25 am
I think my realtor is good at finding quality and not wasting our time, and she knows the area, but I see that price negotiations isn’t her big thing – getting the right kind of house is. Ultimately, it looks like pricing is going to be my job.
A.West: Not wasting someone’s time is a big deal. She doesn’t waste yours, then show her the same courtesy in return. Further, don’t rook her at the end…….even if people think realtors are garbage, just remember, you treat them poorly, you give them motivation to treat other customers poorly.
I talk from the perspective of a professional in a public facing position, where I constantly have to avoid people who look at me as a free resource….you treat me with professional respect, I will run through a brick wall for you.
#82 – Sean – Disinflation – Thanks for that. I’ve been looking for something that accurately describes what I’ve been witnessing with regards to prices. That does it nicely.
yikes (37)-
Saturdays/Sundays are tough. Football.
[37,45] Yikes, painhrtz (and Clot, SAS, others)
(something funny about juxtaposing those first two names)
I want a shotgun but don’t care to spend a lot on it, and was thinking Mossberg. Any thoughts about these, and about gauges—should it be 12 gauge, and if so, why does it matter (versus 16 or 20 gauge)?
yikes (37)-
Don’t know the 870. As you know, my choice of tactical shotgun is the Mossberg 500.
[79] kettle
Why do I get the feeling that the link is directed at me?
Tactic = point shotgun, pull trigger, wipe up splatter.
John (58)-
That’s because these issues are stone cold losers, and everybody knows it. These are the bond equivalents of pets.com at $100.
“I am a big time bull and my jaw is on ground at some citi bonds trading above 100 and some AIG bonds trading in the 90s.”
Housing Recovery? Green Shoots “More Like Crabgrass,” Weaver Says
Historically, from peak to trough, it takes more than four years for housing prices to bottom. That means some of the first and hardest hit areas like Phoenix and San Diego may, in fact, be near bottom. The Northeast, on the other hand, may still have further to fall since prices peaked in 2007.
However, if you’re looking for a full recovery, don’t hold your breath. Weaver says historically it takes 10 years for prices to return to previous highs.
In the meantime, prices will fall and foreclosures will rise. She believes national home prices will ultimately fall over 40% from peak levels, meaning recent talk of prices bottoming after a surprise turn in the Case/Shiller Index is premature.
Referring to a report done by the Federal Reserve of Boston – examining the Massachusetts downturn in the late ’80s – Weaver states, less than 7% of borrowers who had negative equity in their homes defaulted. Unfortunately, “the universe of borrowers is far riskier” today and unemployment more drastic. Therefore, she’s not counting on such low default rates this time.
vodka (70)-
Nature’s own fleet of bulldozers.
“…let the storm demolish a huge section of real estate and then make sure there is no i nsurnace in place so that no one can afford to rebuild… Genius!”
Besides, Brownie & Co already proved this sort of strategy works during Katrina, which also had the side benefit of chasing away hundreds of thousands of poor people and killing off the weakest of the lot.
west (75)-
If you pursue this course, you will never get this house. Guaranteed.
You don’t lecture the guy on the other side of the table. You present the offer, give them your bonafides, and STFU.
“But I also would hope that my agent would be supportive of writing up a fact-based offer to sellers, explaining why they should take what might appear to them to be a low offer seriously.”
An example of how Shorts get the living sh!t kicked out of them……
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AIG#chart1:symbol=aig;range=5d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
How many “buyers” here have submitted lowball offers with “justifying” letters and comps attached, have the sellers stiff them cold…then watch the sellers end up selling the house to somebody else for the same price or less?
John says:
August 20, 2009 at 10:25 am
I am shocked that Citi Bank and AIG bonds are all the way back from the bottom in such a short time. I am a big time bull and my jaw is on ground at some citi bonds trading above 100 and some AIG bonds trading in the 90s.
JJ: You are aware that no RIA worth anything can put people into unrated and junk? You have no chance against audit…
re AIG & C: …really? look at UST, the maturity date, and the backstop…I think it makes sense……as an investment, I don’t know whether the compensation is high enough…
Hey I know, but I got Citi bonds between 50 and 62 cent and AIG between 44 and 62 cents. It ain’t worthless as long as there is a fool ready to buy it from you.
Clotpoll says:
August 20, 2009 at 12:14 pm
John (58)-
That’s because these issues are stone cold losers, and everybody knows it. These are the bond equivalents of pets.com at $100.
“I am a big time bull and my jaw is on ground at some citi bonds trading above 100 and some AIG bonds trading in the 90s.”
Clotpoll says:
August 20, 2009 at 12:27 pm
How many “buyers” here have submitted lowball offers with “justifying” letters and comps attached, have the sellers stiff them cold…then watch the sellers end up selling the house to somebody else for the same price or less?
clot: don’t hold an eye chart in front of a blind person……
Citi, AIG and Genworth, don’t ask me how all are A Rated investment grade.
chicagofinance says:
August 20, 2009 at 12:37 pm
clot: don’t hold an eye chart in front of a blind person……
clarifying…not the sellers, but the people to whom your comment is directed…
Clotpoll says:
August 20, 2009 at 12:07 pm
yikes (37)- Saturdays/Sundays are tough. Football.
clot: I thought you said Monday to Friday is tough due to shock therapy….
Chi,
Yeah, give it a few weeks
John (97)-
Somebody should submit this to GS’ ad agency:
“It ain’t worthless as long as there is a fool ready to buy it from you.”
chi (101)-
Nah. Shock therapy doesn’t work so well when you combine it with heavy drinking. I had to give up one of the two, and there’s no way in hell I’m putting down the Knob Creek.
I am channeling my inner Ari Gold.
Clotpoll says:
August 20, 2009 at 12:52 pm
John (97)-
Somebody should submit this to GS’ ad agency:
“It ain’t worthless as long as there is a fool ready to buy it from you.”
95: Clot – I think your previous post about this being a sort of sport for “buyers” was apt.
That said anyone want to buy some Citi, BAC, AIG, GNW or GMAC bonds from me!!!
So what I’m hearing is that its best to put in your bid, bid just high enough to not “insult” them, show that you have the money to close the deal, and hope nobody else bids higher before they have to sell. End of story. Otherwise, don’t even bother to bid?
Nom I have owned both prefer the 870 parts are cheaper, thing shoots caked with mud, snow blood etc. The 500 while a pretty gun with a smoother action proved a bit more finicky and couldn’t withstand the abuse I put it through. For a home improvement wall painting device both will serve you just fine. I believe since both have been in side by side production the 870 outsells the moss by almost 2:1 but that was some arbitrary statistic I heard a few years ago.
And with that fun post I’m off on vacation, hopefully the world doesn’t end while I’m separated from my firearms in Germany. Have a great next few weeks everyone
108: I think the tolerance level for insults is directly realted to the distress of the seller.
west (108)-
No. You imply that a sale can only be made on the seller’s terms. That is not at all the case. However, if the seller is not minimally motivated to sell at current market value, no amount of “proof” will convince him to do so. Offering such unsolicited information will: a) cause an unmotivated seller to immediately blow you off; and, b) probably cause even a motivated seller to work against you instead of with you.
If you have a motivated seller on the other end, you’ve got to understand that there’s a good chance the motivation is coming from something very bad happening in that person’s life. If you don’t allow that person some space and an avenue by which to “save face”, kiss you offer goodbye. It is one thing to lead a seller to a painful realization; it is quite another to rub his nose in it.
Discretion- and silence- is always the better part of valor. A party in a negotiation who understands that he truly has the upper hand and plenty of leverage shouldn’t overplay it by piling on with reams of comps and unnecessary brinksmanship.
U.S. Stocks Advance as AIG Says It Expects to Repay Bailout
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axHzYENJfWKI
Clotpoll advances as he says that drinking Knob Creek will extend your life.
data on manufacturing and economic indicators added to evidence the recession may be ending.
Clotpoll says:
August 20, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Discretion- and silence- is always the better part of valor. A party in a negotiation who understands that he truly has the upper hand and plenty of leverage shouldn’t overplay it by piling on with reams of comps and unnecessary brinksmanship.
clot: so certain posters here have an inherent handicap in ever landing a lowball.
Green shoots:
In other findings:
— Fatal work injuries in the construction sector plunged 20 percent.
— Workplace homicides dropped by 18 percent.
— Fatal workplace falls declined by 20 percent last year, after rising to a historic high in 2007.
— The number of fatal work injuries declined for all age categories except among 16 and 17-year-old workers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Workplace-suicides-surge-by-apf-3128706669.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=d46b394fe09b9f6dd25e8510cede32f9&ccode=rd
Prudential Financial Inc., the second-biggest U.S. life insurer, advanced 4.3 percent to $48.07, helping to lead a group of financial shares to the top advance among 10 groups. The company was raised to “outperform” from ”market perform” by Randy Binner, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets, on capital strength.
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. climbed 8.8 percent to $22.05 and jumped earlier to $23.24, the highest intraday price since Sept. 22. The largest publicly traded U.S. athletic store posted a quarterly profit and forecast annual earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.
H.J. Heinz Co. added 1.7 percent to $38.60 after posting a quarterly profit that fell less than analysts estimated as it raised prices to offset lower volume.
Per-share profits topped analysts’ estimates by an average of 9.8 percent for the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results since June 17, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. Earnings slid 29 percent on average, a record eighth straight quarter of falling profits.
chi (115)-
It would seem so.
I still stand by my belief that 60%+ of the posters here will never buy a house.
People who want to buy houses buy houses: any time, any market, any economic environment. It ain’t that hard.
Am I on black list for this blog? I tried to contact with Grim by email and phone. Nothing…. I tried to ask some questions here on blog. Nothing. I enjoy reading this site every morning. If I am on the ignore list, please let me know I will stop posting and just read.
Thanks Clot,
That makes sense.
Hi Sal.
Dick’s Quarterly profit and beats annual estimate.Why?Middleclass buying sports goods again?Save for the future!!You can’t be buying this useless things.
#122 – Dick’s Quarterly profit and beats annual estimate.
Gun sales?
/panic
Hey Sal.Welcome!
Gun sales?
Makes sense.Time to get my own M-16.
#124 – Dick’s Quarterly profit and beats annual estimate.
Actually, they do sell ammo, don’t they?
I understand that there’s been a bull market in ammo since the inauguration. Might explain the sales.
I’m also too lazy to look at the actual press release.
Dicks is always packed!! Last time I was there people were buying high end golf clubs and stuff like there was a sale, there wasn’t.
I think a blacklist for this blog would be both fun and entertaining.
Grim, can you create a section here for a blacklist?
Can we nominate people for it?
Why is there no post 119?
Don’t hear from Frank.Blacklist?Is there such a thing?
I nominate Clot!
For President?
#127 – Dicks is always packed!
There’s a punchline here somewhere, I don’t feel like digging for it though.
The one in Woodbridge is practically empty every time I go in. They do seem to have very good sales. I’ve been looking at kayaks and for entry level stuff their sales prices are hard to beat.
Clot,
One more thing. In your opinion, jow much below list price is the psychological breaking point for the average seller? The nearest hundred thousand? 5% or 10% less? What gets them upset, versus what might get a counteroffer?
this all they sell under guns
BB Guns/Ammo Gun Cabinets Gun Cases Gun Cleaning Kits Gun Racks Gun Safes Rifle Scopes Spotting Scopes Paintball / Airsoft
The Dick’s in Roosvelt Field is a madhouse.
Just for fun tell the seller the realtor should eat the 6% discount.
This one is for SaS.
A New Jersey blogger facing charges in two states for allegedly making threats against lawmakers and judges had training from the FBI on how to be deliberately provocative, his attorney said Tuesday.
Hal Turner worked for the FBI from 2002 to 2007 as an “agent provocateur” and was taught by the agency “what he could say that wouldn’t be crossing the line,” defense attorney Michael Orozco said.
“His job was basically to publish information which would cause other parties to act in a manner which would lead to their arrest,” Orozco said.
Prosecutors have acknowledged that Turner was an informant who spied on radical right-wing organizations, but Turner was not working for the FBI when he allegedly made threats against Connecticut legislators and wrote that three federal judges in Illinois deserved to die.
“But if you compare anything that he did say when he was operating, there was no difference. No difference whatsoever,” Orozco said.
Orozco spoke to reporters after a court hearing in Hartford on Tuesday. Turner, 47, of North Bergen, N.J., did not appear, because he is in federal custody in Illinois. His arraignment on the Connecticut charges was rescheduled to Oct. 19.
In June, Turner urged his readers to “take up arms” against Connecticut lawmakers and suggested government officials should “obey the Constitution or die,” because he was angry over legislation — later withdrawn — that would have given lay members of Roman Catholic churches more control over their parish’s finances.
He wrote in Internet postings the same month that the Illinois federal appeals judges “deserve to be killed” because they issued a ruling that upheld ordinances in Chicago and suburban Oak Park banning handguns. He included their photos and the room numbers of their chambers at the courthouse.
Orozco officially joined Turner’s defense team in the Connecticut case on Tuesday, with approval from Superior Court Judge David Gold. Orozco said his Newark, N.J.-based firm has been representing Turner for the past five years, including during his FBI informant years.
Turner’s Connecticut attorney, Matthew R. Potter, said it’s too early to tell which trial will move forward first. Orozco said he plans First Amendment defenses in both cases.
Randall Samborn, a spokesman for the U.S. attorney’s office in Chicago, said the office would not comment on Orozco’s statements. The FBI office in Chicago didn’t immediately return a call for comment Tuesday.
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202433145191&Blogger_Who_Said_Judges_Deserve_to_Die_Was_Trained_by_FBI_to_Incite_Others_Attorney_Says_
•Porsche Raided by Prosecutors Investigating Possible Market Manipulation
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEnrT6mbNJ0c
#135 – I think they offer in store sales throughout most of the country. NJ being an exception.
Regarding 108:
I don’t want to give too many details because because this is private stuff. But let me just give a little bit of info and make my point.
My wife and I FINALLY bought a house (after searching since March) in…let’s just say a pretty damn nice town in Union County. The house fit our needs perfectly but: A) my landlord didn’t want us to move, so we were month to month as fit our needs–i.e., we were in no absolute rush to leave. And B) My wife and I decided we simply would NOT go over our budget–i.e., we were steadfast in what our top offer could be on any one house.
So: We put our bid on this house, went back and forth a few times over the course of 8 days, and their “final” offer was roughly $15,000 over what we told our agent was our limit. (The truth was it was really more like only $8000 over!) Their snobby stance was, “We could NEVER go that low. Be gone with you.” Our realtor told the selling agent “Okay, have a nice day, call us if you change your mind.” We didn’t bite our nails, we didn’t sweat it–we just stuck to our guns and waited.
Seventy-hours later, guess what? The buyer’s agent calls our realtor and says, “Well, my clients crunched their numbers again, and if your clients are still interested, my clients will accept their offer.” Our realtor and we had a damn good laugh over that line!
The buyers with the $$$ and the willpower to be firm have all the hand in the world. The sellers will either capitulate, or you just have to move on. Our realtor was 100 percent frackin’ phenomenal, and told us all throughout the spring and summer when we were considering other houses, “Put whatever offer in you want. Either they’ll laugh, or they’ll negotiate. You’ve got the power, not them.” Never pushed us, never bullshat us, was tireless for us.
Closing in October and we couldn’t be happier. We got what we wanted and didn’t compromise in any way, shape, or form. Feels GOOD!
#140 – Congratulations and enjoy the new home!
#133 Dick’s Kayaks:
We bought 3 entry level kayaks from them about 6 weeks ago for lake use and are happy with them.
3 kayaks, 3 paddles and 2 lifejackets came to about $820 including sales tax.
Woodisgood,
May prosperity and joy come to your new home!
Woodisgood,
Congrats! Did that happen before the media started coming out with stories of a housing recovery already beginning, filling sellers with dreams of stable/rising prices?
Father Wants Public Caning for Malay Woman Over Beer
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arlcL6yx16N4
May the USA never gets in to this kind of dictatorship.
#138 yo’me
•Porsche Raided by Prosecutors Investigating Possible Market Manipulation
There has to be a joke in there on how many short traders you can squeeze into a VW Beetle.
I was also thinking of getting Kayacks, where do you keep your Kayacks at night?
Against The Grain says:
August 20, 2009 at 2:08 pm
#133 Dick’s Kayaks:
We bought 3 entry level kayaks from them about 6 weeks ago for lake use and are happy with them.
3 kayaks, 3 paddles and 2 lifejackets came to about $820 including sales tax.
But prostitution is very rampant in Kuala lumpur.Can’t have beer after sex.
John,
How’s the Dick’s in Belmar?
wood (140)-
That is how it is done. Textbook.
Congrats!
sbux rasising pricing on all drinks.
what a set they got.
Half a house for sale.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125073912867745325.html
#147- I was also thinking of getting Kayacks, where do you keep your Kayacks at night?
In a homemade kiyak rack.
RE: “People who want to buy houses buy houses: any time, any market, any economic environment. It ain’t that hard.”
In recent years “buying” was the easy part; actually keeping the house is another matter.
There’s a good chance one who buys any time, any market, any economic environment, is a bagholder.
@Nom [68];
Entirely with you on the non-church giving… I “gave” at the office – so to speak.
yikes says:
about to order this remington.
http://www.remington.com/products/firearms/shotguns/model_870/model_870_express_tactical.asp
Yikes, that is the model I have. Dick’s had the best price. We bought a few months ago b/c we wanted one that I could use. I took sporting clay lessons with it to get comfortable. I’ll never shot an animal, but will not hesitate to use on a bad guy.
rachel (156)-
No offense, but if you can’t shoot up some dinner, you’ll spit the bit when confronted by a meth-crazed homo sapiens crashing into your living room.
[123] tosh
Relax. sporting goods did enjoy a jump, and it was due to the downturn. Outdoor gear jumped (camping, small boating, fishing, and, yes, hunting) and folks who suddenly had more time for golf and kids bought gear.
That said, I still am stocking up on gunz ‘n ammo for the nompound.
144/A. West:
>>Did that happen before the media started coming out with stories of a housing recovery already beginning, filling sellers with dreams of stable/rising prices?< WE had been looking for five months, having physically stepped into probably 45 houses, so we simply knew what we wanted and we no longer i “let’s keep looking” mode.
As the negotiation period went on, clearly no one was ready to pull the trigger like we were, so time was on our side. Maybe by the beginning of August, after two weeks for them, they and their agent must have figured, Dang, let’s just get this done, no one else is serious. (Plus, to be fair, they would have been hard-pressed to find a couple with our perfect credit, putting 25%+ down, pre-approved, and totally flexible with the closing date.)
Our realtor also felt they MIGHT have found their new home around the same time, and felt the timing just was right for them.
Not to toot our own horn, but this might be educational for anyone here still looking to buy…they bought the house in 2002, and our final price ended up being approx. $15,000 LESS than they bought it for. (Note new kitchen four years ago; redid two bathroom two years ago; new roof a year ago; finished basement three years ago.)
Many many thanks to all of you wishing us luck. It’s our first home (after paying rent for 10 years!!!) and even though we’re moving from NYC to NJ, we know it’s going to be fantastic. (We both grew up in NJ so the culture shock won’t be so crazy.)
140 – Hahaha. A nice town in Union County… That’s a good one!
but also congratulations!
Auto dealers, fed up with government’s tardiness in sending out the rebates, started abandoning the program since they’re hardly in a position to float the up to $4,500 a pop given to those exchanging their clunker for a new, more fuel-efficient car.
Enter GM Thursday with a pledge to advance dealers the cash owed by the government so they can “continue immediately delivering new vehicles to GM customers.”
Smart advertisement:buyers will trade for GM cars
GMAC to the rescue!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO BABY!!!!
Panem et circenses, compliments of the Argentine gubmint:
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) – The fact the Argentina football season is starting a week late – a fallout from the debt crisis that has engulfed the league – does not change the look at the top.
Defending champion Velez Sarsfield is in good shape to repeat, and the stiffest challenge may come from Boca Juniors under returning coach Alfio Basile.
There’s one thing for sure. The new government-sponsored TV deal, aimed at helping to bail out heavily indebted clubs, guarantees that all 10 games each week are to be shown free on state TV. It’s an unprecedented move that is sure to be one of the government’s most popular initiatives.
The government has proposed paying the clubs about $154 million for the rights to televise this season on terrestrial television, more than double the $69 million the breached contract called for the broadcast consortium to pay.
The global economic crisis has struck directly at Argentine football, which is heavily dependent on selling its best players to rich European clubs to maintain a semblance of financial viability. But smaller transfer fees combined with widespread mismanagement have left the 20 first-division clubs owing about $182 million to the league, government tax agencies and players.
John (162)-
To the rescue? This is like the leper being bailed out by the consumptive.
just got an em-mail from my current clients HR group advertising the 8K tax credit?.?.?.?.
oh and the e-mail directs you to wells fargo
#158 – Nom – Relax.
IDK, I much prefer panicky reactions to all news. It makes my dull cubicle life so much more interesting.
I am going double long. I’ve been too negative.
Clot,
Rachael may have hope yet. Just read ” on killing” play some Half-life 2 / Halo / Grand Theft Auto and then start talking about your opponents in sports and work as “targets” and “objectives”. next ting you know you have circumvented the normal psychological barriers to killing another person.
Dont forget to practice with people shaped tagerts.
Poor car dealerships. Not only is the government screwing with them by delaying payments. They also got tricked into destroying the car that was traded in. That’s probably the only thing they could unload to offset their potential loss.
Don’t hate the playa hate the game. This is FREE MARKET ECONOMICS AT ITS BEST!!!!! Chyrsler and GM get financing from GMAC, Ford and Foreign Car companies wimp out on cash for clunkers as govt is slow in paying, enter my favorite GSE-GMAC to the rescue, front them the money, risk free, govt as will pay them anyhow. Remember earlier this week GM started the COBOLT AND MALIBU LINES and people said whoooo Nelly, guess who just got a chop stick up the poo poo hole in Japan, Sanyora Toyota
Clotpoll says:
August 20, 2009 at 3:40 pm
John (162)-
To the rescue? This is like the leper being bailed out by the consumptive.
GM to the rescue,, with Taxpayer money.
what a country
The new CEO from AIG, on vacation.
what a country
This is FREE MARKET ECONOMICS AT ITS BEST!!!!!
govt as will pay them anyhow.
?
I think Broadway Joe had better odds with his guarantee.
“President Barack Obama guaranteed Thursday that his health care overhaul will win approval and said any bill he signs will have to reduce rapidly rising costs, protect consumers from insurance abuses and provide affordable choices to the uninsured — while not adding to the federal deficit.
Obama listed those four “bullet points” as his basic requirements in response to a question from a caller to a Philadelphia-based talk radio show. Host Michael Smerconish interviewed Obama at the White House during the show and Obama took questions from several listeners.
Another caller said he sensed the administration’s “knees are bucklin’ a little bit” under criticism of the proposals. Obama said he was as determined as ever and “I guarantee you, Joe, we are going to get health care reform done.”
RELO I love it!!!!!!! The Govt gave me a little fright with their poor handling of the CIT crisis, but Thank God they are back!!!!
Can’t wait to see what my AIG bonds I bought Monday are worth. I rode Soveign bank bonds back to 101 sold them and did a split 50/50 GMAC AIG at 50 cents on a dollar, for the double down in an attmept to ride that back to 100. It is my Amway approach. ChiFi is from Chicago so he is unfamilar with these shylock strategies.
175: That’s more like a Patrick Ewing guarantee. Whoops.
173 Freedy – Did GWB take over as CEO of AIG?
Nom,
to bad obama isnt willing/able to take any of the ajor steps needed to actually meet his goals…..
1st order of business for anyone who is serious is to break the strangle hold of the pharma lobby and force collective bargaining for drug prices.
I hate Ewing, had Front Row seats under hoop for 1985 final four and I had a great sign that read Patrick Ewing – KIN U RED DIS? That damm jerk pointed to the CBS Guys and they told me to take it down or they would tell security and have me kicked out. That guy can’t take a joke. Around ten years later he lived near me on 34 and Lex, he had an apt on game nights so supposedly he did not have to go home to his wife, that guy gotta a lot of white tail, must be a few middle aged housewives who had to get stiched up to keep the baby in after their one night stand with Patrick in the late 80s to mid 90’s. It is no wonder he couldn’t win a championship. championship.
I will believe that we will have health care reform when Tim Tebow promises it. Any thing short of that and I think the status quo rules.
‘Cash for Clunkers’ Program to End on Monday
Only 1.8B is spent. What happened?
“Improved consumer confidence and credit availability during the past six months have combined with the CARS program to lift industry sales out of their slumping year-to-date levels, which have been down approximately 35 percent year-over-year,” Gary Dilts, J.D. Power’s senior vice president of global automotive operations, said in a statement. “These factors set the foundation for a gradual recovery in the months ahead.”
But Dilts said reduced inventories could hold back some momentum, although automakers have moved to increase production to match rising sales.
J.D. Power also said that the clunkers program is expected to pull sales forward from next year, flattening the recovery. So it reduced its 2010 sales forecast slightly to 11.5 million from 11.6 million.
U.S. sales exceeded 16 million as recently as 2007, but have slumped during the country’s financial meltdown and global economic downturn
Luxury Brands Beating Wal-Mart
Think luxury goods aren’t selling these days? Think again.
French luxury good maker Hermes enjoyed a 12 percent gain for the second quarter, while Wal-Mart’s sales declined 1.4 percent, VIX reports.
In fact, the Claymore/Robb Report Global Luxury Index ETF, whose holdings include Porsche, Daimler BMW, Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy, Hermès, Luxottica, and Pernod Ricard, has been dramatically outperforming the discount retailer since the March bottom.
“Global luxury sales aren’t deteriorating anymore at all,” Gucci owner Francois-Henri Pinault told Bloomberg.
“September will be the key month to see if we have hit the bottom, if the recovery is coming.”
Indeed, a number of European luxury-goods makers say that sales are stabilizing or improving.
Italy’s Bulgari SpA, maker of high-end jewelry, recently reported a narrower loss, while Louis Vuitton says sales growth above 10 percent.
Sales for PPR, the French multinational holder of luxury goods firms, were sustained by the resilient performance of its Gucci luxury mega-brand, according to Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Luca Solca, who also says that Gucci’s penetration of the Chinese market ahead of its rivals paid off this year
First-half sales of luxury goods advanced 11 percent in China and Hong Kong, and 15 percent in emerging markets, PPR said, helping to offset declines in North America, Europe and Japan.
At the core Gucci brand, sales grew 14 percent in China, including Hong Kong.
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/investing/luxury_brands/2009/08/19/249878.html
181: Once (not if) he becomes Gov. of FL I’ll pay more attention to that aspect.
These numbers sound like Fl, NE, and Ca not NYC. ahh the process of price discovery…
Manhattan Commercial Real Estate Office Sales Plunge 91%
In Manhattan, commercial real estate office sales reach standstill.
Only three Manhattan office buildings worth more than $30 million were sold in the first half of year, as buyer and sellers failed to agree on pricing and credit stayed tight, according to a report by real estate services company CB Richard Ellis Group Inc(CBG).
“Buyers are seeking distressed pricing,” said the report released on Tuesday. “Owners do not want to sell at distressed pricing, and lenders have largely withdrawn from the market.”
“When the CMBS market shut down, that really shut off the financing mechanism that allowed a lot of these large transactions to get done,” Enoch Lawrence, senior vice president, CBRE Capital Markets, said in a statement.
The three sales compare with an average 32 seen in the first half of the past five years, the report said. Sales of office buildings valued at more than $30 million, fell to a total of $767.5 million in the first half of the year, 91 percent off the five-year average of $8.2 billion.
Nom will be very busy with this clients
The U.S. and Switzerland finalized an agreement Wednesday in which the Internal Revenue Service will receive details on 4,450 UBS AG accounts suspected of holding undeclared assets from American customers.
“What this does is creates an overwhelming incentive for virtually every one of those account holders to come forward,” said Peter Zeidenberg, a litigation partner at the law firm DLA Piper in Washington. “If there had been a steady stream, there is now going to be an absolute flood.”
http://www.newsmax.com//newsfront/us_ubs_secrets/2009/08/20/250112.html
vodka (169)-
What else do you call business competitors?
“…then start talking about your opponents in sports and work as “targets” and “objectives”.’
If I put bounties on competing agents’ listings, why does that make me a bad person? :)
(171)-
This, from Wall St’s best and brightest.
“…whoooo Nelly, guess who just got a chop stick up the poo poo hole in Japan, Sanyora Toyota”
“So-called consumer discretionary companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings since June 17, including Sears, reported on average a 14 percent decline in sales, according to Bloomberg data.”
This was from Yo’me’s Bloomberg article on AIG’s promise to pay back the gubmint loan back at post 112.
Gotta wonder why this was thrown in there?
(179) Kettle
Problem there is that he will have to nationalize them to get the concessions. Even so, he makes them de facto generics. And forget about innovation after that—all new drugs will be foreign and the US will be effectively barred unless they are willing to endorse patent piracy.
Some crazy guys get some crazy MPG
http://www.cleanmpg.com/cmps_index.php?page=garage
circulation union alternative likewise conclude number comparable
wide consensus probably comparable warmest