From the WSJ:
Rising Interest May Crash the House Party
When cash is trash, the housing market is happy.
That was the case during the mid-2000s boom when lenders required little or no money down. It is also true today, but for different reasons: Not only has unprecedented central-bank stimulus kept mortgage rates artificially low, it has pushed record numbers of financial investors to buy into housing.
More recently, interest rates have risen since talk began in May that the Federal Reserve could “taper” its bond-buying activity. Combined with rising prices—they are up about 12% year over year on average nationwide—it has helped push a measure of housing affordability developed by the National Association of Realtors to a five-year low.
Higher rates usually hit home sales with a lag, making data on pending home sales from the NAR—the next reading is due Monday—a key tool in gauging buying momentum. With the proportion of homes being sold for cash rising, it is now a more reliable housing barometer than weekly data on mortgage applications.
A report this summer by Goldman Sachs estimated 57% of residential-home sales through 2012 and early 2013 were paid for in cash compared with just 19% in 2005. That is despite the fact that the average 30-year mortgage rate so far this year is nearly two percentage points lower than back then.
Interestingly, the surge in cash buying hasn’t blunted a steep drop in pending sales. They fell in September for a fourth consecutive month to the lowest level since last December.
…
The NAR sees home sales next year staying at about this year’s level while mortgage rates end 2014 about a percentage point higher than today and two points higher than this past spring.Based on recent trends, it may have to trash that forecast.
Good Morning New Jersey
Me thinks Yellen will rebalance QEx to buy more MBS than Ts and lower rates
Pending home sales due out at 10am, consensus estimates are for +1.1% month over month.
There’s a long way to go before Fed raises rates
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/11/23/fed-rate-raising-delay/3664703/
The Federal Reserve may not be happy until it gets unemployment all the way down to 5.5%, if statements from central bank officials and other economists are an indication.
Up until recently, the U.S. central bank appeared steadfast on a benchmark of 6.5% before it began normalizing its target for short-term interest rates from the near-zero current level. The zero-bound has been in place since the darkest days of the financial crisis that exploded in 2008.
That commitment to concrete targets for policy change has changed recently, however.
The unemployment rate has been on a steady downward trajectory, though the October reading showed a slight uptick to 7.3%. But it has been doing so in great part due to the shrinking labor force.
From the NYT:
Who’s Putting a Roof Over Parents’ Heads
Do you really need that in-law suite?
That depends chiefly on where your in-laws were born. A new study by Jed Kolko, the chief economist at Trulia, the real estate Web site, finds that the chances of your children’s having live-in grandparents are greater if those grandparents are from India, Vietnam or Haiti. In fact, foreign-born adults are four times more likely than natives to live with relatives, Mr. Kolko found.
Over all, about 9 percent of older Americans live with relatives, according to Census data. But close to half of those born in India (47 percent) and Vietnam (44 percent) live with family members, while those born in Germany (6 percent) and Canada (5 percent) are slightly less likely than American-born seniors to live with relatives. (Trulia has published a full list of countries.) Among the American-born, those of Hispanic or Asian descent are the most likely to live with relatives when they grow old.
Women, the unmarried, and the “old old” — 85 and older — are also more likely to move in with their children.
In recent years, the share of older adults living with their children or other relatives has increased, to 7.3 percent in 2013 from an average of 6.6 percent from 1994 to 1998. But unlike those basement-dwelling millennials who are still living with their parents, older Americans who do so have not been motivated by financial reasons, Mr. Kolko says. The trend has been long-term, in keeping with immigration patterns rather than driven by the recession. And local housing prices were not a determining factor.
East Rutherford is the new Brooklyn, from the Star Ledger:
Where the hipsters are in N.J.: East Rutherford?
The real estate company RealtyTrac set out to find the zip codes that could possibly have the largest population of hipsters – that subculture of people who like indie rock, flavored coffee and thrift-shoplike clothing.
Near the top of its Top 25 list is East Rutherford, the tiny Bergen County with a population of 8,875 living under the shadow of Metlife and Izod stadiums.
East Rutherford doesn’t look like a hispter town. There’s no trendy café serving artisan doughnuts and witty reparte, no bicylcle repair shop. But for RealtyTrac, it has all the other ingredients that lure hipsters, making it the sixth most suitable place to find them. (Hoboken is the only other New Jersey community, coming in 13th and sandwiched between two neighborhoods in Queens, N.Y.)
The company looked at several real estate factors. It found that 20.4 percentage of the population is between the ages of 25 and 34, and 57.6 percent of the residents are renters rather than homeowners. With the train line into Manhattan on the border of the town, 27.8 percent take public transportation to work.
…
RealyTrac’s research was geared more toward investors than sociologists. According to the report, places like East Rutherford could be “emergent hyper-local hipster markets where investors can realize solid returns on rental properties while also enjoying low vacancy rates that ensure they won’t have much down time between renters.”
was very cold, but the few open houses visited were packed. surprised to see some of those ppl were, like me looking to upgrade. houses were OK, but taxes are a killer
Housing market closed for the next 6 weeks
anon,
houses were OK, but taxes are a killer
I’ve been told high taxes are for the children.
grim,
What’s your take on Verona? I went to an open house there yesterday just out of curiosity and so on. Asking price was $500,000 on a 50 X 110 lot with just under $13,000 in taxes (theft). The house was originally built in the ’20s and there was an additonal room added on the back years ago. The room had no use or purpose. There were three bedrooms, not bad in size but overall, the house was just blah… nothing drastic either way.
I’ve heard it said that one of the contributing factors to the collapse of the USSR was the collapse of oil prices. Like many middle east countries, Oil and gas are their largest exports. It’s like imposing an economic sanction on them.
54.Grim says:
November 24, 2013 at 5:20 pm
Fracking = Peace
[7] anon
“Taxes are a killer”
Okay, who are you and what have you done with anon?
Nom,
Pats big win! Giants s.uck! Ok, I was wrong. :)
Get your Heloc now or be priced out forever!
“People don’t want granite countertops — they want marble costing at least 25 percent more,” said Mroz, owner of Michael Robert Construction in Westfield, an affluent town less than an hour’s commute to Manhattan. “Money is so cheap today, people can splurge on $1,000 faucets.
Spending on home renovations is rising to records as banks such as Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. increase lending for home equity lines of credit, or Helocs, after property prices this year gained at a pace not seen since the last housing boom. Heloc originations could rise 16 percent this year and reach another five-year high in 2014, according to Mustafa Akcay, an economist for Moody’s Analytics, powering the earnings of Home Depot Inc. and boosting the economic expansion. ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-25/faucets-at-1-000-abound-as-home-equity-spigot-opens-mortgages.html
Home Prices Rise a Mere 0.2% in September
The LPS Home Price Index showed a material slowdown in home prices in September as demand for homes drops on rising rates.
By Shanthi Bharatwaj, Staff Reporter
Home prices barely moved in September, as demand for homes slowed on the back of higher interest rates.
According to LPS Home Price Index, home prices rose a mere 0.2% from the previous month. Prices are still up 9% on a year-over-year basis and the index is up 8.2% year-to-date. Seven of the 20 largest states saw modest price declines, a sign that the recovery may have halted in some regions. Connecticut saw a 0.9% drop in home prices, while home prices in New Hampshire dipped 0.6%. Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Washington were some of the other states that saw prices retreat slightly. Nevada continued to see prices rise, posting a monthly gain of 0.8%. Arizona saw prices edge up 0.3%. In California, prices were unchanged, after accelerating at a scorching pace for most of this year. The pause might actually be welcome news, as some analysts have worried that prices have risen too fast in the state. Home prices in San Jose are almost back to their previous peak, according to LPS. Texas continues to hit new highs, with prices up 7.5% this year. On the metro-level, Las Vegas continues to lead the gains, with prices up 26% year-over-year. Of course, home prices in the city are still more than 40% off its peak. The LPS index is a repeat sales analysis of home prices based on transactions every month. It adjusts for prices of distressed sales such as short sales and foreclosures, which sell at a discount. On Tuesday, we will have more housing data with the release of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for September. The Case-Shiller Index is based on a three-month moving average and does not adjust for distressed transactions. The Census Bureau will also release housing starts data for September, which was originally scheduled for release on Oct.17 but was delayed due to the government shutdown.– Written by Shanthi Bharatwaj in New York.Follow @shavenk
I went to this open house yesterday, because I drive past it almost every day.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1084324941-5-Caruso-Ct-Bridgewater-NJ-08807
It’s hard to imagine how it can ever sell. The style is so distinct, and it really feels like a white elephant. And it’s built for 1991 technology. There are 4 kitchens, including 2 outdoor kitchens. How hard is it to carry food around?
#10…Eddie, you did not ask me, but 26 years owning in Essex County, last 20 in Cedar Grove, my take….Verona, a bit like “Montclair Lite”…compared to CG, better downtown, Community Center, better school system, 20 % higher tax rate than CG. More “professionals”. (Original owner of my house had a Wallace/Lemay -look it up!-bumper sticker in the basement) That being said, we picked CG as we were sending kids to private.
We were where you are 6-8 years ago as far as looking to “move up”. Found same, had to pay $200k more to buy a fixer upper with much higher taxes. Chose instead to stay and expand what I knew as far as house and neighborhood. Paid off mortgage and tax bill is “NJ manageable” $700 a month.
Good luck!
1987 Condo,
That open house I went to was basically my house in a different location. I like Verona’s shopping area but the thing that concerns me is if you travel a mile or two down Bloomfield Avenue, you enter a different “realm” of environment. Slightly to the south into West Orange, you’re entering a quickly changing landscape as well. Let’s call it the creep/crawl effect. But all in all, that particular open house I went to was a trade up in price and taxes only.
FE – Verona? Huh? From a commute perspective how does that work? Middle of nowhere for where you need to go.
Oakland would be closer and easier if you want more alternatives.
Also – do you really hate yourself? Essex County? You post about taxes every day and you are looking in ESSEX COUNTY?!?!?!
Grim,
Lol! I’m just checking out some things. Cedar Groves taxes aren’t that bad. And Verona is just over the hill, sort of speak. Said child joins a car pool so it wouldn’t be much difference but I would say that town is not an option anyway.
16 – 5 Caruso Court….owned by Joseph Caruso.
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?district=1806&l02=180600718____00021__08_____M
Do you get to rename the street if you buy that house?
#18-20… “creep” was and still is always a concern, actually my greatest concern in 1993 was Montclair, but that seemed to have “worked” out. Given policing and taxes you may be ok. As far as Essex County tax, that was a big concern, but over last 20 years, County tax rate has grown about 1% a year….it really topped out back in 90’s..while I have noticed other counties, particularly Passaic, realized they could charge a lot more and did. For example, used to be Little Falls was cheaper than CG, now their effective rate is 25% higher.
I have spreadsheets and have been tracking taxes in this state ever since my condo taxes went from $3,300 in 1987 to $5,500 in 1989!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The real answer is to leave NJ! Things are bound to get worse!!!! My goal is to avoid ending up where all the rest of you decide to go!!!!!!!!
16 – Holy damn that’s terrible – though it’s the perfect movie set if you wanted to do a movie set in the roaring 80s (ala Wall Street).
Someone call Gordon Gekko, we found his new house.
Not sure if this is posted or on toolbar:
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/lpt/taxrate.shtml
I know of several streets around NJ that have these ethnic names….Bonafacio Ct, Caruso Ct, Rocco Ridge……justified or not, it just sounds horrendous……just to rename the street probably adds $100K to the selling price…..
FYI….and my last name ends in a vowel…..
Do you get to rename the street if you buy that house?
Probably not – owner is a builder and looks like he built the whole street out and kept one for himself. He built the road, so he named it, before handing it over to the township (which is typical). Perhaps you can write into the contract that you want the owner to petition for a name chance, he’s probably politically connected as well.
My take is that Verona is very stable…..old school northern Italians that know how to keep what they do not want away…..
Nom [12];
Nom, you know better than that. To a Michael Moore-type like anon, only little people pay taxes, and higher taxes are good for them.
Pending sales down 0.6%
Rags [16];
I shudder to think how many white formica trees gave their lives to decorate that place.
Grim, when we were looking, we popped into an open house off Alps Rd. in Wayne that had a very similar decorating feel throughout.
Decor aside, that price doesn’t seem too far out of whack given the size property and location. Not as confident about Bridgewater, but in Bedminster it would probably be a steal.
Pending home sales VERY strong in the Northeast:
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-11-25-ekbmcinbnns/phs-10-2013-pending-home-sales-11-25-2013.pdf
Non-adjusted year-over-year up 5.9% in October. Headline SAAR up 2.8% in the Northeast vs down 0.6% nationally.
Con’t [32];
Re: “White” house in Wayne;
It reminded me not so much of Gordon Gecko as Goodfellas.
Pending home sales VERY strong in the Northeast
1 bottle of windex + 1 more gallon of paint + 1 rented floor polisher = another $5000 added to my asking price.
Anon,
The problem is that once bought, you’d have to spend another $300k to fix stuff up, repurpose/restyle the rooms. I saw the HVAC are all original, so within a few years if not immediately, there goes $75k. I’d assume the outdoor kitchens all need mechanical replacement. The 2 subzeros are both original, there goes another 20k, etc. Someone buying a $2mn house will also be looking to redesign the Bar/AV area to support a real home theater.
And now after 22 years, the lot next door is for sale. When that house gets built, that neighbor will then have great views of the naked pool party that the house seems built for.
23,
Lol. That’s the key to happiness. The ability to free yourself from these NJ chains of tyranny. It’s all turning to sh-t eventually. Make your money while the good times last. Protect your assets as best you can. Then be ready to bounce at the first signs of trouble.
A lot easer said than done.
These days will be looked upon as the good times. 2 years from now the wheels start to fall off
Here is a real dream home, a paradise for those that like whittling and Taxidermy.
http://www.s18photography.com/awesome-newfield-nj-house-nj-real-estate-photographer/
39,
Reinforce the hardwood with 2 layers of sandbags and that house might be worth the taxes.
Ugh, the knotty pine is giving me a headache. It would be like staring at polkadots all day. More money than brains.
“The owners mentioned really liking wood”
That’s what she said…
Holy splinters
Rags [36];
After all that, you’ve got 8500 sf on 2.5 ac. sitting on a ridge line with a view you basically own, all for $2.5MM (presuming no negotiation off list). Again, based on what I’ve seen driving through Bernardsville on occasion, that doesn’t strike me as insane. Not to my taste or means, but I don’t think its insane.
Note the seller is also carving off adjacent land as building lots (http://www.trulia.com/property/3122371816-7-Caruso-Ct-Bridgewater-NJ-08807). Lot #3 is 7 Caruso Ct., but it seems #1 and #2 are up as well. That is something for a buyer to consider — they may look at this house on its land and see the larger vacant tract, but after they buy they will have neighbors soon, and close. That’s the real downside of this deal to a buyer for No. 5. Maybe at $2.1 TPIR for a buyer to pick it all up, but I don’t think that will get it done to the sellers satisfaction — $2 for his house plus $500-750k each for three lots — he is looking to take $4M off the table.
43 – Big money in highways and bridges:
http://www.carbroconstructors.com/Carbro/Projects.html
Juice [38];
What’s up with the sleigh bed being seemingly backwards (head to foot)? Bad staging?
Show some love for New Jersey. It is seriously one of the best places to live in the United States or better yet the world.
http://thestir.cafemom.com/big_kid/153975/the_5_best_worst_states
“New Jersey may be famous for Snooki, Tanning Mom, and generally being the butt of a million jokes, but according to a new report, it’s the number ONE best state to raise a kid in. Released by the Foundation for Child Development, the annual Child Well Being Index (CWI) is a state-by-state comparison of quality of life for kids. Fist pump?”
I’d rather be in the carribean right now.
[47] street,
I’d rather be in the Caribbean any time.
Savoring. . .
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10035307/massachusetts-minutemen-back-associated-press-poll-1st-15-years-michigan-state-spartans-remain-no-1
And the best county in this state for kids growing up is Hunterdon. That may explain why mine are so successful, intelligent, attractive….
Yati, yati…….
Seriously, my kids had to take lessons on how the rest of the world (mis)functions as they started getting older. A lot of their friends grew up in fairy tale worlds, so far apart in culture and behavior from many parts of the state.
(48) Would you care to be, let say, anywhere in Haiti or DM outside the resorts?
[51] xol,
It’s rhetorical so does it matter?
1. Knockout game starts to go viral tho it has existed a few years.
2. Knockout game is largely a young black male thing,
3. Viral nature threatens to cast young lack males in bad light.
4. Casting young black males in a bad light is racist and verboten, especially after Trayvon.
5. Media suggests issue is a fabrication and young black males are really no threat.
http://www.cnn.com/video/standard.html?/video/bestoftv/2013/11/25/newsroom-brown.cnn&hpt=hp_t2&from_homepage=yes&video_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F
6. Anyone who suggests otherwise is a homophobic, mysogynistic racist.
Actually they dont grow up in Neverland. Your town is a kinda PeterPanville
xolepa says:
November 25, 2013 at 2:14 pm
And the best county in this state for kids growing up is Hunterdon. That may explain why mine are so successful, intelligent, attractive….
Yati, yati…….
Seriously, my kids had to take lessons on how the rest of the world (mis)functions as they started getting older. A lot of their friends grew up in fairy tale worlds, so far apart in culture and behavior from many parts of the state.
Lock them all up in same cell and let them knock each other out.
Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:
November 25, 2013 at 2:33 pm
1. Knockout game starts to go viral tho it has existed a few years.
2. Knockout game is largely a young black male thing,
3. Viral nature threatens to cast young lack males in bad light.
4. Casting young black males in a bad light is racist and verboten, especially after Trayvon.
5. Media suggests issue is a fabrication and young black males are really no threat.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A growing number of Americans doubt President Barack Obama’s ability to manage the nation, according to a CNN/ORC poll released on Monday that reflects the possible larger impact of his administration’s fumbled rollout of its healthcare law.
The poll also found that 53 percent of those polled said Obama is not honest or trustworthy, marking the first time that the CNN/ORC polling found a clear majority questioning the president’s integrity, CNN said.
It’s Bush’s fault.
Libtard,
Regarding the british airways credit card: I recall the promotion saying you could book a flight with them or their partners (their biggest partner is American Airlines). When I go to book rewards travel out of NY (all airports), it appears the only eligible destination is London. Do you know what’s going on? The daily flight schedules from JFK to all the other places they claim they fly to are not showing up in the rewards search. Did you have any trouble booking your flights?
What do you think of those stock indexes that follow the s&p 500 and the DJIA?
BOHICA. Our costs go down, we give ourselves raises and pay out dividends. Our costs go up and we raise rates.
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2013/11/new_jersey_utility_customers_c.html#incart_m-rpt-1
#38. Love the faux antler touches.
Re: [58];
What do you think of those stock indexes that follow the s&p 500 and the DJIA?
Tools of lazy capitalist pigs. Both they and the pigs who invest in them should die a firey death.
Nevermind, Libtard. I got it working. That website it terrible.
(55) That has been done before, except in another are:
When I was in High School – several decades ago – the Gym teacher would gather up all the incorrigibles on a monthly basis. This happened during detention hours and thus not many students nor administrators were present. He would then take them to the small gym and lock the doors. He put on each kid a blind fold and a set of boxing gloves. Then, he told them it was open season on anyone in that room. Needless, to say, the gym teacher had his own set of gloves. No blindfolds, though. He taught everyone in that room a lesson. A lesson on how to be scared.
are=era,
Carlo’s must have opened in Red Bank…..in fact Carlo must be there because half of the friggin’ metrosexuals in the country and the women who love them are putzing around there…..
country = county
water down the cement and skip every third nail…..
grim says:
November 25, 2013 at 12:13 pm
43 – Big money in highways and bridges:
http://www.carbroconstructors.com/Carbro/Projects.html
[53] “Media suggests issue is a fabrication and young black males are really no threat.”
It’s more than a suggestion. This libtard was on the receiving end of a beat down, but wants to tell us all “let me be clear” . . . this whole thing is just a fake trend.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/11/25/knockout_game_trend_it_s_not_real_but_random_street_assaults_are.html
The first rule of black racist violence is: Don’t talk about black racist violence.
Now then. With that “polar bear hunting” stuff behind us, can we all please get back to talking about St. Trayvon, Obama’s imaginary son, and the omnipresent danger that white-on-black violence presents to every single black person in America?
missed this one when it came out…..
Triumph The Insult Comic Dog Hits The Final Presidential Debate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I46iwLIF1Fo
Triumph the insult comic dog….
…the Octomom was so big and full of kids…..Jerry Sandusky wanted to take a shower inside of her……
50. I love working in Hunterdon County because it’s like being in a bubble. Since I work with the public the more pleasant the people are, the better. And they are mostly very pleasant. I don’t know that I would want to do this work up in north jersey..different attitudes, different expectations.
@WSJ: U.S. Census: 45% of children with single mothers live below the poverty line. http://t.co/HVchpTku7h
Anon: Of the 19.5 million visitors to http://healthcare.gov in October, only 26,794 selected a plan.
Anon: Lincoln and JFK both murdered, Nixon impeached and Jessie Jackson says Obama is facing ‘most hostility’ [ever] for President.
97.8% of comments in blogs are totally made up bullsh1t
Anon: Are you surprised that Obama was able to negotiate peace with the Mullahs? After all, isn’t he a Muslim?
“97.8% of comments in blogs are totally made up bullsh1t”
I hope you copied that from Twitter. Otherwise, Anon will not believe it.
@NewsBreaker: Photos released with the Sandy Hook #Newtown report http://t.co/RfCOfaUPmw – @eyewitnessnyc http://t.co/RYJYfgyAMm
Anon: Report of Yale Gunman Was Hoax, but That Didn’t Stop Anti-Gunners From Taking to Social Media
This is fun. Baa Baa.
Anon: Did you even look at those photos? It’s a picture of video games, 2 rifles and 2 broken windows. Does this actually bother/excite you? If it does, I can shoot some pictures of my mailbox or perhaps some tree stumps for you. I could even post them on Twitter for you so you will believe that they are real.
[78] anon,
Wow, you actually did something useful.
Remember all that talk about the shooter using an AR? The rifle in the picture clearly isn’t an AR, and isn’t even a .223. The magazine is far too small for that. It isn’t wider than the trigger guard so it cant hold .223 cartridges. It also has no AR features. Rather, it appears to be a garden variety .22LR.
If that was the actual weapon used then the media and the government clearly jobbed everyone.
[82] errata,
Anons post was incomplete. The weapon pictured wasn’t likely used.
@nbcnightlynews: DEVELOPING: 7 people injured in shooting in East Oakland, CA http://t.co/8hNul7a9Zu via @nbcbayarea
[84] anon
Report is incomplete. There is no mention of a white guy and his legally purchased AR. How do you expect to move the ball if you leave it looking like street crime?
Anon…I guarantee you the guns were not registered. But keep on punishing the law-abiding gun owners. That’s the liberal way. Always punishing those with the means to aid those without. Baa, baa.
[30] moose,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2060704/Occupy-protests-Michael-Moores-mansion-luxury-99-Americans-dream-of.html
I especially liked how the house is valued on the tax roles at half it’s actual market value.
I’d like to play knockout game on that cake boss mofo.
Jesse Jackson = Al Sharpton = narcissistic race baiter
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