Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

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207 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion

  1. UnRealtor says:

    Look at this dreamer:

    124 Hobart Ave, Short Hills (MLS 2332257)

    This is essentially a Newark row house on a narrow lot.

    A Burgdorff listing.

  2. BB says:

    But it’s in Short Hills.

  3. Hard Place says:

    125 Hobart – what a horrible makeover. The current renovator bought it for 560k in 12/05.

  4. BB says:

    I was being sarcastic

  5. UnRealtor says:

    “I was being sarcastic”

    Sorry, didn’t recognize the name, and thought you were a Greedy Grubbing realtor.


    BC Bob?

  6. ithink_ithink says:

    Buyer brokers – what are your thoughts?

    What I’ve heard thus far:
    Positive – Good for 1st time buyers & to navigate thru the process, esp. inspectors, etc…
    Negative – Getting in on the commission so might not get best price.

    Any thoughts on using an assigned agent thru a financial instituion’s program? I assume its the same as a buyer’s agent but can bundle other fees?

    Thank you in advance!

  7. Pat says:


    “We have built an artificial mirage that can hide something from would-be observers in any direction,…”

    Doesn’t the NAR already have a patent on this thing?

  8. Everette says:

    Must be nice to be able to afford a place like that lol
    I saw a listing in Chatam @ arounf 425 or so how is that a starter home? This is why I am all for banning NYC commuters. I live in Nj I work in NJ why should I not be able to afford Morris count an parts of somerst. Commuters are the downfall of this state.
    I do not have a problem with people who have been commuting since before the bubble jus any new commuters. Before the bubble and the influx of stupid nyers this state had expensive McMansion area’s and average income family towns. Its not all the Nyers fault but I get sick to my stomache every time I hear a realto say easy access too transportation to Nyc. Come on an hour and a half bus ride a e hour bus ride.
    We do not need so many buses into NYC. Somerset wherer i live is an hour an 45 min with traffic drivingn OI have done it. brunswick, princeton, fleminfton, mount olive, rockaway, are horrible commutes to NYC if u commute outsie northern somerset co, bergen co, a few parts of morris co,hudson co and anyplace over an hour away from the city than you are the biggest idiot alive.

    maybe u get more for the money in NJ but too bad u cant enjoy it spending all ur time traveling and all these people must be wonderful parents it no wonder kids do drugs.
    Go back to NYC ur not a real Jerzian only a wannabe poser
    and pay your 1 million dollars for a 300 sq foot studio Jidoiots

  9. Jamey says:

    Yeh, the whole commute-to-exurbia/save a few bucks thing is just perpetuating an untenable way of life.

    What’s gonna suck is all those folks who paid 700g for a fixer-upper in Somerset, only to find the cost of their commute up about 70%…and the value of their home down about 45%.

    But getting home @8:pm will somehow make it all worthwhile…

  10. Pat says:

    Everette: I hear people from PA say these things about Jersey folks.

    People go where the jobs are, and they live where they can afford to live, until the balance changes. Then they move. Cycle repeats. Wash & spin.

    There’s nothing new going on. As long as there’s a way to commute, it will happen.

  11. Everette says:

    I know a lot of jerzians r border hoppin too Pa bu going to Pa u r not saving much plus its not fair that they are being priced out of there towns. It just seems that commuting is at an all time High
    I guess if there wernt so many of them like brfore the buble it would be fine.
    I am not familiar with Nyc prices but if you live in areas like many of the towns i mention u need transporttion
    if a husband and wife Move to Nj and commute to Nyc lets break it down’, the added expense
    2 car payments 600 /mo
    2 car ins payment 400 / mo
    2 mo bus passes 500 / mo
    gas 200 / mo

    So thats 1700 dollars more to commute from Nj plus they r prolly still eating out everyday in the city. Maybe the save a little bit on groceries. So tell me again how the r saving money living in Nj and commuting wasting time on a bus

  12. Richie says:

    Who pays $4800 for car insurance for 2 cars? Is that with 100 points?

    I have 4 cars covered for $2300…


  13. James Bednar says:

    I don’t understand why a buyer wouldn’t use a buyers agent when dealing with a listed property.

    You don’t pay their commission directly.

    You can negotiate a lower commission with that agent in order to reduce the selling price.

    Many times the listing brokerage won’t allow for a dual disclosure and will “assign” you an agent to act in your behalf. The listing brokerage gets the full commission.

    Sure, there is a chance you can use a dual disclosed relationship to suit your own interest, but that is only if you can get the listing agent and broker on your side (by dangling the double commission carrot in front of them).


  14. patient homebuyer says:


    i just wanted to let you know something that made me happy.

    i saw a 2bdrm coop in forest hills queens on austin st (if you know the area it is a nice spot) well anyway this was in april 06 he was asking 410k for the place i offered 280k and he said no i have an offer for 390k
    long story short i wished him luck with his offer

    well it is on craigslist again this time with a realtor (he was a fsbo and did i mention a loan officer with wamu) it is now 325k with the realtor with an open house on sunday!!!!!

    he should have taken my offer whioh is now 200k if he reads this blog

    20% haircut in 6 months well 25% with the realtor fees

  15. Everette says:

    have u seen nyers drive they drive like ther going to a fire for full coverage on 2 vehices I pay 3000 / year
    I was making the point that people who commute spend a more living in nj in different ways just like people who move to PA
    you might save 3000 a year on taxes but e people commuting will spend add 3600 per year on gas with 45 mile commute
    plus u haveto pay for car inspection every year 70.00
    Car ins not much cheaper. Price of goceries not much diff
    There r other costs too. So all in all its not really worth going to PA and commuting

  16. Trout says:

    “Commuters are the downfall of this state.”

    Um… I’m not a commuter or even an NJ resident, but isn’t it a GOOD thing when people are bringing money into your town from somewhere else? I understand being annoyed at outsiders/high prices, etc. But that’s a situation many communities dream of. And, while you happen to be locally employed, chances are you wouldn’t like or even recognize your state if it didn’t get that NYC dough.

  17. UnRealtor says:

    Everette, ur posts r hard 2 read

  18. BC Bob says:


    Good for you. The sellers will start puking soon, the same dynamics as any other market.

  19. varughese says:

    Has any one heard about canal crossing ?


  20. BC Bob says:

    Has any one heard about canal crossing ?

    Can you be a little more specific regarding your question???

  21. Everette says:

    But when there are no afforadable towns left in a state becuase you get priced out is that fair? I do not think so. I know tons of people that still live with there parents or rent becuase the cannot afford the prices here. I wouldnt mind so much if it were just certain area here and there, but its everywhere. And with the taxes so high unless the prices start comming down there will be many NJians not being able to afford.
    Take away the exotic mortage and what do you have? A big mortage payment.

    So please someone explain what I am missing I am 27 years old Married, wife is pregant with Twins and my wife would like to be a stay at home mom we beleive in being there for our children and always having someone there for them. So please with 2 car payments 2 car ins payments, 2 new mouths to feed, no credit card debt (Just finally got outta 40K credit card debt between my wife and I from when we were younger) and we will not be able to buy a house or a townhouse and afford taxes on just my salary.
    I think I make good money for being 27.
    So now I have to get contract work so we can afford to live on one salary.
    I think if we boot anyone who moved to NJ and commutes to NYC in or after 2001 I think NJ won’t be that bad. There will not be an overflow of New Yorks
    Oh and by the way Trout Nyers do not listen to you when you beep, I have almost been hit by them well over 200 times this year. And you can tell who is not a real Jerzian, a real jerzian will cut you off not side swipe you and if a njian does almost side swipe you they back off when u beep. Plus they add to the already overcroweded highways. They will not hesitate to drive over 100mph on 287. I cannot tell you how many times I have almost been hit becuase the cross over the double yellow lines when they are trying to make a left and are to impatient to wait.
    So yes I have a deep hatered toward many ny commuters cause they make are road unsafe and they do stupid things like pay 500K for a 2 bed 1 bath house thats 900 square feet they figure what a deal get 600 more square feet and only have to pay half the amont I would in NYC for a 300 Sq foot studio

  22. Sg says:


    This is slightly older article, but very global perspective. The scary part: If you see 1997-2005 growth, while most western countries did good, but Hongkong was -43%, Japan -28%. So there is chance that can happen here too. It will be not first time.

    Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which is based on prices when contracts are agreed rather than at settlement, shows that average house prices have actually fallen by 7% since 2003; prices in once-hot Sydney have plunged by 16%.

    In UK, The volume of sales has slumped by one-third compared with a year ago as both sellers and buyers have lost confidence in house valuations.

    American prices have risen by less than those in Britain, yet this is still by far the biggest boom in American history, with real gains more than three times bigger than in previous housing booms in the 1970s or the 1980s.

    America’s ratio of prices to rents is 35% above its average level during 1975-2000 (see chart 1). By the same gauge, property is “overvalued” by 50% or more in Britain, Australia and Spain.

    To bring the ratio of prices to rents back to some sort of fair value, either rents must rise sharply or prices must fall. After many previous house-price booms most of the adjustment came through inflation pushing up rents and incomes, while home prices stayed broadly flat. But today, with inflation much lower, a similar process would take years. For example, if rents rise by an annual 2.5%, house prices would need to remain flat for 12 years to bring America’s ratio of house prices to rents back to its long-term norm. Elsewhere it would take even longer. It seems more likely, then, that prices will fall.

    Australia & Britain are ahead. See what happened to those markets,

    The rapid house-price inflation of recent years is clearly unsustainable, yet most economists in most countries (even in Britain and Australia, where prices are already falling) still cling to the hope that house prices will flatten rather than collapse. It is true that, unlike share prices, house prices tend to be somewhat “sticky” downwards. People have to live somewhere and owners are loth to accept a capital loss. As long as they can afford their mortgage payments, they will stay put until conditions improve. The snag is that eventually some owners have to sell—because of relocation, or job loss—and they will be forced to accept lower prices.

  23. BC Bob says:

    “I cannot tell you how many times I have almost been hit becuase the cross over the double yellow lines when they are trying to make a left and are to impatient to wait.”

    You have been well indoctrinated. Had a good laugh about your experience on the roads. Do you think Jerseyites pay attention to yellow lines?? Also, it’s down the shore, not the beach and please don’t ask for a hoagie, it’s a sub!!!

    You forgot to add that Jerseyites will pick your pocket and smile as they do it. By the way, I’m in love with a Jersey Girl.

  24. Sg says:

    Wow !!! The real awakening was last paragraph. Most people think we are not like Japan. Unfortunately, US boom is bigger then Japan boom of 80’s. And in Japan, they really don’t have much land !!!

    Japan provides a nasty warning of what can happen when boom turns to bust. Japanese property prices have dropped for 14 years in a row, by 40% from their peak in 1991. Yet the rise in prices in Japan during the decade before 1991 was less than the increase over the past ten years in most of the countries that have experienced housing booms (see chart 3). And it is surely no coincidence that Japan and Germany, the two countries where house prices have fallen for most of the past decade, have had the weakest growth in consumer spending of all developed economies over that period. Americans who believe that house prices can only go up and pose no risk to their economy would be well advised to look overseas.

  25. twice shy says:

    re: buyer’s brokers

    Relying on a seller’s broker to represent your interests is less than ideal unless you have a built-in sh**t detector.

    I’m starting to wonder if it might be better to enlist a buyer’s broker to find motivated sellers and get them to consider some of the lowball offers some of us would like to put across.

    Any personal anecdotes, pro or con?

  26. lina says:

    I hate sellers these days! I just got my second decline on my offer!

    I put in an offer on a listing ($399.9K) at $330K – they said no. I went up to $350K (which is the MAX this place is worth – it’s really nice, renovated, etc. but is tiny and has no yard), and they “politely declined”. These guys bought it in foreclosure in July for $270 and are expecting to get $130K more?? Get real!

    i hope they have to drop their price to $349 in November when they have no buyers and are facing an empty house ….

  27. BC Bob says:


    Not only that but the striking similiarity is the age factor. When the top hit in Japan, the majority of their population was older. Look at the % of our population that is aging, baby boomers. There is a real possibility that this market can mirror Japan.

  28. BC Bob says:

    Housing takes its toll on Caterpillar.


    Caterpillar’s biggest problem was slowing machinery sales, as the slowdown in the U.S. housing market discouraged new purchases of smaller bulldozers, graders and other vehicles. “New product introductions and mine permit delays in the U.S. slowed growth in large machine sales,” the company added.

    While the U.S. business is weaker, Caterpillar’s international business is quite strong, CNBC’s Phil LeBeau said.

  29. Mr. Oliver says:

    Everette, you’re not on IM. Please try and write in English. Thanks.

  30. twice shy says:


    I guess we’re all out-to-lunch. Following this blog will condemn us to a lifetime of rental servitude. A 350 counter on a 400 ask in late October, in this market? I’d say you put in a fair bid, more than fair. Only shows that seller’s are in control–not!

    If you can, just turn off the emotion and sit tight. Let’s see what happens to their fat 130K profit in 3 months. LOL to ’em.

  31. SAS says:

    BC Bob,

    Not sure how to take CAT. I have been in China several times in the last two years. They are building towns and cities literally overnight, all with CAT rigs. So… they stumped me?
    I still think its a good company, this may just be a slight pullback.



  32. Brian says:

    Regarding the first post on the “Short Hills” home. To paraphrase Sen. Bentsen – “I knew Short Hills. Short Hills was a friend of mine. 125 Hobart, you are not a Short Hills home”.

    That house is a joke. It sits in between two nice areas, but the value of that home is in the six figures not seven. I’m out of Short Hills and mortgage free since 2003.

    Re: CAT – mining activity has been a big driver as well. As gold/copper, etc have pulled back it’s led the miners to hold off on some purchases. CAT is the second biggest contributor to the Dow Gains (behind MO).

  33. Rich In NNJ says:


    People have been commuting to NYC for 100 years.

    Your not the first to be priced out of a home in NJ. I was also at the age of 27.

    Also, it doesn’t matter where you’re from or where you’re going as far as driving “skill” goes. So I’d drop the generalizations as well.

  34. Rich In NNJ says:

    CAT is in great shape overseas, it’s just domestically where they are hurting. Their comments about the housing market and the slow down they are feeling domestically is what’s rattling investors and the market.


  35. Richard says:

    that short hills home. hideous, simply hideous. i wouldn’t give you $795k for it let alone 1.795 million. unreal.

  36. Rich In NNJ says:


    A few additions to my previous post.

    People have been commuting to NYC for 100 years. It’s not going to change. “…is that fair?” Yes, very.

    You’re not the first to be priced out of a home in NJ. I was also at the age of 27 in 1990. You know what happened to the housing market the following year, right?

    Also, it doesn’t matter where you’re from or where you’re going as far as driving “skill” goes. So I’d drop the generalizations as well.

    Stop fretting over what others can (or can not) do and keep saving. Time is on your side.


    PS If “they” have cars and drive (yes I know, like banshees) into the city, why would they need the $500/month bus passes?

    And Trout is correct. It’s a good thing they spend their incomes in NJ.

  37. BC Bob says:


    Agree. The article states that also. The slowdown was attributed to the domestic market. Everybody is feeling the pinch.

  38. Everette says:

    i understand people have been commuting for many years
    but there has been an over abundance of them I hate too bring it up since sept 11. also i am getting tired of being 75 miles away from Nyc and still hearing realtors use that a there sales pitch. My big issue is being priced out of the entire tri state area. Why are there busses to nyc 75 miles away from NYC
    There is nothing wrong with commuting but if u are taveling over an hour thats just being ridiculous and non sensical
    Its each person choice if they want to commute far but lets not encourage them by putting a bus in the poconos or in every town in maqjority of North and central NJ
    If u wanna live that far outta the city it should be a pain too commute why should they have iteasier then people who live and work in NJ

  39. Spelunker says:

    the masses on the highway that drive like maniacs cannot be generalized to a particular demographic. it exists around the entire globe. save young grasshopper… dont let your anger drive you to the dark side. be a jedi and use your jedi mind tricks to low ball greedy sellers and flippers.

  40. Spelunker says:

    patient homebuyer, i drove the GSP for years and it is like the autobahn. I have had old ladies high beam my in the left lane while i was doing 80.

    Everette there is nothing wrong with you guys renting a place close to work. It would be cheaper than buying and you can stay close to that family until the day comes for a house. As of late it has become the savy and (gasp) chic thing to do.

  41. varughese says:

    Hi everyone,
    What do you guys think of the south bound brook property that I put a link to earlier ?


    We are thinking about getting the Raritan. I look forward to your responses….

    Thank you

  42. BC Bob says:


    Another thing about those double yellow lines. They were never meant to be double. The state just decided to hire more workers and didn’t know what to do with them, to keep them busy. Therefore, they decided to put them all out on the roads and make the single yellow lines double. They had to justify the hire.

  43. Spelunker says:


    the place doesnt look bad at all. I mean it is a larger townhome, love the layout and it is close enough to metropolis. My concerns would be bound brook’s flooding reputation. Also are they offering – a n y t h i n g – by way of insentives? Have they come down from original price yet?

    If these have just come on and you could wait i would say wait a bit and catch a slightly better deal. most important, take a look at that flooding situation.

  44. Rich In NNJ says:

    Ridgewood Cape
    312 Walthery Ave

    03/22/02 Asking $379,000
    06/28/02 Sold: $379,000

    01/04/04 Asking $429,000
    02/18/04 Sold: $435,000

    05/26/05 Asking: $549,000
    08/17/05 Sold: $529,000

    02/20/06 Asking: $539,900
    10/20/06 Sold: $485,000

  45. UnRealtor says:

    Mmmm, house I’ve been watching has dropped another $50K. That price drop just reshuffled all similarly-priced comps still stuck in a 2005 bubble-peak timewarp.

    More squeeze on those Greedy Grubbers. More price drops to come, more seller squeeze to come.

  46. UnRealtor says:

    Rich In NNJ, are there ghosts in that house? Why would a house sell 4 times in 4 years?

    These speculator buyers are out of the market now. Can’t park in a house for 1-2 years and cash out for a quick $50-100K anymore.

    Now you have to pick a house you can stand to live in for 10 years or more.

  47. Rich In NNJ says:


    I don’t know, it sold in in ’91, ’95 and 98 also.
    1991 $179,000
    1995 $209,000
    1998 $233,000

    Maybe it WAS the ultimate starter home. Then I’m guessing a speculator or someone thinking they could build new and bigger?

    The latest buyer used an ARM… but you can’t tell what type. Hope they plan to (and can) stay for quite awhile!

  48. 007 says:

    I think (south)Bound brook is a flood zone. Better avoid that.

  49. SAS says:

    “And, while you happen to be locally employed, chances are you wouldn’t like or even recognize your state if it didn’t get that NYC dough.”

    you got that right.


  50. SAS says:

    ” There is a real possibility that this market can mirror Japan.”

    I think it will mirror, but it won’t be as extreme as Japan because we have reserve currency of the world. Japan does not. As much as other countrys don’t like us, they do not want to see us crash (not yet anyways).

    For example, China wants us to remain healthy because we buy all their goods, and then those dollars come back to us in the form of T bills….well….. after the red China govt takes a little off the top.

    But with that said, if you bought a house in NJ within the past 3-4 years…you are totally screwed. Most will not be screwed if they bought before that…just a little disappointed that you didn’t cash out.


  51. SAS says:

    This Ahmadinejad guy is nuts.
    Reminds me all to well of Hitler.
    Those hippies say Bush is Hitler, they obviously don’t read much about Ahmadinejad.
    This guy could cause alot of headache for us all.

    by the way, the only comparison between the Tet Offensive and Iraq is that we didn’t get the political support we needed in nam because the panty waste politicans didn’t support us for 2 reasons:
    1) we didnt want to piss off the Russians, but Kennedy showed they were nothing but a bunch of paper tigers
    2) the growing unpopularity of the war due to high casualties. Thats one weakness of the US. We don’t have a stomach for that, but most countrys do.


  52. Aref says:

    KB Home notice of default. Nothing too serious, but its early days yet….


  53. Pat says:

    Rich in NNJ:

    You raise a concern I’ve had. Are houses to be avoided with more than 3 sales in five years?

    When looking at possible homes, I toss them, because I’m worried about the neighbors. Rational? One home, just what we are looking for, has sold four times since 1999. Good schools, good neighborhood. I keep driving by it trying to see what the problem it.

  54. Spelunker says:

    heres to the folks that believe that a 12k Dow spells a housing savior.


  55. v says:

    How many people actually invest in the DOW?? Most people invest in the S&P and that’s not doing as well as the DOW. A DOW only increase means investors are fleeing into big cap stocks. The only time investors want to do that is when they want to play safe and are worried about the future.

  56. Spelunker says:

    Hey V,

    I dont know how many actually invest in DOW stocks however, many (bag holders) today are on the sideline and believe that this uptick on the DOW spells a second wind for housing. I even had a realtor cheapishly offer their analysis of the DOW and equate it to a better housing market. shameful.

  57. v says:

    Spelunker ,
    The houses i like are in 550-650K range. If i buy one of those, then i may not be able to invest in the stock market :(

  58. Spelunker says:

    hell, if you buy one of those you may not be able to invest in tomorrow night’s dinner.

  59. RentinginNJ says:

    Is it possible that the Dow is doing well because of the housing market and not in spite of the housing market?

    After the market took a hit in 2000, a lot of money was redirected away from stocks and into real estate. Now that the housing party is clearly over, there may be a return to stocks. After all, there is still a lot of cash sloshing around the economy that needs to find a home.

  60. RentinginNJ says:


    Have you considered relocating to a lower cost area of the country? I don’t know what kind of family ties you have here, but it sounds like it could be a good fit for you. If you move west or south, you have a better chance of living on one salary. You can find more affordable housing, a lower cost of living and a slower-paced lifestyle, where people live closer to their jobs and the drivers are a little tamer.

  61. mm says:

    I have a question:
    What if potential buyers on this website have one of their low-ball offers accepted and they become homeowners; Will they still be bubbleheads? Or will they then be claiming soft landing?

  62. Zac says:

    an accepted 40% lowball is hardly a soft landing

  63. mm says:

    Yes but 40% lowball is not realistic either; Grim’s lowball section shows only one 40% off accepted for october.

  64. Zac says:

    that was the hole in the dike

  65. Spelunker says:

    that’s one more than we would have heard of a few months ago.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    RentinginNJ Says:
    October 21st, 2006 at 9:36 am
    Is it possible that the Dow is doing well because of the housing market and not in spite of the housing market?

    After the market took a hit in 2000, a lot of money was redirected away from stocks and into real estate. Now that the housing party is clearly over, there may be a return to stocks. After all, there is still a lot of cash sloshing around the economy that needs to find a home.”

    My anecdotal experience agrees with this thought. 2005 was a slow year for new client leads. 2006 has slowly been building, and since Labor Day we’ve had to swat them off like flies.

  67. Zac says:

    Realtors should change their stragety and compile a list of potential buyers; and then have sellers present their best “reasonable offers.”

  68. bubblewatcher says:

    When the 40% accepted offers are finally acknowledged by the general selling/buying public, instead of the manipulated MLS data and the media propaganda – the real results will begin. May take until the spring market to prove this out.

  69. Spelunker says:

    bubblewatcher, amen.

    the true OLP and DOM of homes is grossly being masked by relistings today. you can run but you cant hide. well at least not for much longer.


  70. v says:

    Even a 20% drop will mean 2004 and 2005 ARMers ( how many millions? ) will not be able to refinance.

  71. bubblewatcher says:


    Already at 10 – 15% in some markets. 20% not far off.

  72. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    Agreed prices are off roughly about 12-15% certain areas low end or high end of that range and those who bought will feel like bagholding fools in next 12-18 months.
    I want to let you know people who have speculated and owned real estate are
    admitting things look ugly and are concerned.

    Take the pacifiers out and be patient.

    Bleed’em DRY!

    If you have been patient and waited for this insnaity to blow over, make sure you are compensated for your time effort and patience.

    10-15% off of 2005 prices is not compensation.
    25-30% + is so BLEED’EM DRY!



  73. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    Do a little work and find out what 2005 prices peaked at in the neighborhood.
    Then take 25-30% off of those prices NOT the Dream prices a few of the Grubbing sellers think they are entitled to.


    Bababababa Housing Bust!


  74. James Bednar says:

    Interesting piece out of the WSJ, I don’t have a direct link:

    Treasury Trading Will Get Scrutiny

    New York Fed Summons Primary Bond Dealers To Discuss Market Influence

    By Serena Ng and Greg Ip

    Officials from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have summoned Wall Street’s biggest bond dealers to discuss regulators’ concerns about a rise in questionable trading practices in the giant market for U.S. Treasury securities.

    The New York Fed requested that each of the 22 “primary dealers” bring a compliance officer and a head of trading to a meeting on Nov. 6, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    Last month, the Treasury Department told bond dealers it had observed a rise in suspicious trading that it said distorted prices in the markets for Treasury securities over the past two years. These weren’t limited to the cash-bond market, and included the overnight-repurchase and futures markets for Treasuries.

    James Clouse, the Treasury Department’s deputy assistant secretary for federal finance, said in a speech that there were times when some firms gained control over certain Treasury issues that were in high demand in these markets, “and seemed to use that market power to their advantage.”

    By buying up most of the available supply of certain bonds, some firms prevented other investors from getting hold of securities they needed, or forced them to pay high prices for the bonds in what is known as a “squeeze.” Mr. Clouse didn’t identify any culprits, but said the SEC and the CFTC were pursuing cases in this area.

  75. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    NO MAAS to Dream Prices Grubbers!

    Your prices are insulting and you must be knocked silly to realize it.




  76. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    The Spring is going to be the BIG Letdown!

    Then No one is going to bail you out.
    Grubbing sellers are deadmeat hanging out to bake.

    Take the advice or else get mowed down.


  77. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    You want to sell grubbers then lower your prices fast before the real stampede develops.
    You think we have alot of inventory now just wait til springtime when everyone that should have sold will be trying to sell. Inventory is going to Balloon.


    The Spring will bring BUST!

    Wait and regret!



  78. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    The Biggest Baddest bubble in History will not correct the excesses in 1 year or 12-15% prices drops.

    If you think so you are Dream”en Grubbers.

    Spring 2007 Housing BUST!

    Accept It!




  79. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    40,000 GSMLS listings by April.


    SPRING 2007 BUST!!!!!!

    12-15% in NOOOOTTTT”””ING!

    Bleedd’em Dry


  80. UnRealtor says:

    MM writes:

    What if potential buyers on this website have one of their low-ball offers accepted and they become homeowners; Will they still be bubbleheads? Or will they then be claiming soft landing?

    If they’re honest: they will see that we’re obviously coming down from the largest asset bubble in history:


    If they’re liars: they will claim “soft landing.”

  81. v says:

    I feel there will be an increase in listings when Mr Liereah is proved wrong yet again.

    If i’m a seller or recent buyer, i would hold my realtor for promising a spring come back.

    Have you guys read about Mr Liereah’s new book?

    There was a bit of discussion on the book at “The Housing bubble” blog.

  82. v says:

    Mr Liereah’s book will help you “Learn how to identify markets that are overvalued or fully valued”

    This book will snap sellers out of thier pot dreams.

  83. Blow blow blow your house Down says:


    Remember this…..Grubbers.

    Wait ’til spring 2007 to come to your senses and fill in the blanks…….





  84. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    NO Rebound in spring 2007!

    NOOOOTTT”””ING No rebound Losses!!!!!!!

    Lower prices and misery for delusional grubbing sellers.

    Bob vs D Lereah

    Lereah been dead wrong last few years.

    Bob been dead right.




  85. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    Grubbers got to get out the door before the masses head for the exits. It is getting crowded at the exits right now. Open your Grubbing greedy eyes.

    Housing is illiquid…can’t flip out of it in a second.

    Housing Bust Spring 2007….


  86. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    12-15% downside is NOOOOTTT””ING compared to the miserable grinding drop you will face in the next 12-18 months.

    A parabolic move up requires a harsh reaction in the opposite direction to correct the excessive irrational behavior of morons.

    Bleed”em Dry


  87. rhymingrealtor says:

    Bob is certainly making up for lost time!


  88. twice shy says:

    Amen to that, KL. Either that or he’s excited about touring a few open houses tomorrow.

  89. twice shy says:

    BTW, I’ve noticed ads on Yahoo Finance and other sites in the past few days to “Start your career as a mortgage broker. Now hiring.”

    Sign the bottom is in?

  90. Metroplexual says:

    I spoke to my neighbor today, the one who works for Realogy. He says the main concern at work is stock price ever since being spunoff from cendant. He also is spouting the same RE industry nonsense about it being a good time to buy with interest rates and that seller need to be more realistic with price.

    It totally amazes me that he does not see what is coming. He’s a nice guy with a nice family and he is pretty sharp. I am guessing that he sold on the NAR nonsense. But I am reminded of a statement that radio commentator Bruce Williams has said, “The easiest people to sell to are salespeople”.

  91. Jeni says:

    If you notice on the new NJ Apartment MLS, there are more properties being listed on there that have “lease options.” Its obvious homes aren’t selling for the prices they are asking so they’re giving it a shot in the rental market… the air is sneaking out…


  92. SAS says:


    You are correct and good call.

    I too agree with all the buildup, you will eventually see price drops in both rental values and home values. But here is the catch.
    Those people whom make policey know this, they are not stupid, unethical, but not stupid.

    So now, in the future, you will have a decrease in percentage of income going to housing costs…yay right? No, wrong, because taxes now will go up to make up for that difference. THerefore, you have no net gain. Make sense? That is why there is no incentive to decrease taxes in NJ.

    Always something holding a brother down.


  93. Hard Place says:

    Wife’s away so the mouse will play. Just some examples of the downturn…

    Let’s call this “Turning Back the Clock” since prices are going back down below last year or earliers levels. I would do more, but I’m getting kind of sleepy…

    MLS #: 2230230
    SP: $ 550,000 on 10/2/06
    Previous Sale Price (PSP): $537,168 on 10/12/04

    MLS #: 2257938
    SP: $ 563,000 on 10/2/06
    PSP: $532,000 on 1/2/04

    MLS #: 2273808
    SP: $ 570,000 on 10/3/06
    PSP: $540,000 on 5/7/03

    MLS #: 2262946
    SP: $ 492,500 on 10/12/06
    PSP: $527,500 on 5/15/05

    MLS #: 2259465
    SP: $ 350,000 on 9/28/06
    PSP: $341,250 on 8/26/04

  94. Rob R. says:

    About CAT:

    Don’t be fooled by overseas growth. CAT is likely passed a major price peak back in March/April.

    If U.S. growth slows, it is very unlikely that growth in China, and other parts of the world, will continue.

    China is another bubble, based on easy credit. Don’t be tricked by the propaganda that China is now “capitalist.” They are only experiencing a boom based on easy credit and some liberalization of their hampered, centrally directed economy.

    What is likely to happen–U.S. growth slows, reducing our trade deficit. That slows the growth in other countries, leads to decreased profits, and job loss overseas.

    The central banks overseas will try to stimulate export demand by weakening their currencies (leading to U.S. dollar strength).

    This will reduce the overseas sales of U.S. companies like CAT, magnifying any reduction in demand for construction equipment due to the slowdown in growth.

    If U.S. growth slows, it is very likely that global growth slows as well. If global growth slows, then there will be less need for heavy equipment, and CAT profits are likely to decline, if not turn to outright losses.

  95. DD says:

    flippers doing the 2 year back flip!

    I would never want to make these morons money!

    What were they thinking?

  96. v says:

    I agree with you. None of those economies are self sustaining. They depend on exports to US to manitain near double digit growth rates.

  97. sas says:

    well said.


  98. Ramesh says:

    Hi friends,
    I am looking at two homes. one in middle class neobgorhood(average schools) but above average home. Another in upper middle class neibhorhood(above average schools) but average house. Which one should i buy? Thanks a lot in advance.

  99. What are they thinking says:

    Another sign of desperation – there is a full page color ad from Realogy in Section A of the Friday USA Today. The title is, “What you need to know about today’s real estate market – Now is a good time to buy”. They go on to mention that, “Homes are selling”, “Demand will continue”, and “Home sale prices have increased each year from 1972 to 2005”.

    Guess profits are down so they are trying to drum up business…

  100. bubbletuner says:

    I wanted to hear some of your comments about this suggestion. You see, I can’t stand the thought of calling one of those real estate agents to try and “sell me a bargain before it’s too late”. I’ve been watching the market for about a year now and have been pleasantly surprised as things have changed so dramatically. I have seen a few homes on the market simply by placing an envelope in a sellers mailbox stating “I would rather avoid using a middle man”. I always have gotten a call the next day including info as to how long it is ’til their contract is up and how they would love to show me their house sometime “unofficially” and of course, free from their realtor’s fee if I miraculously show up after their contract expires. I tell you all, YOU DON’T NEED TO USE A REAL ESTATE AGENT WHEN HOUSES ARE JUST SITTING. Do the research yourself, then make an offer and tell them you’re offering it when their contract expires. That’s my plan (mind you, I’m not buying for another year or two). But please guys you can save yourself a bundle by avoiding the whole agent issue. Sorry, it’s a monopoly out there and I refuse to submit. Those money grubbing agents played the game their way when the ball was in their court. Now that houses are sitting and you don’t have to worry about being outbid…..BOYCOT REAL ESTATE AGENTS. I’m telling you, try it. Those sellers will call you every time.

  101. NH says:

    Hi all,

    I’ve been reading this blog for awhile and just had an accepted offer. 20% off asking, thanks for all your advice. 799K to 645K.

  102. Yuriy says:


    Hi guys. Please see that listing and comment. Your honest imput would be greately appreciated.
    Thank you and have nice Sunday!

  103. v says:

    What about comps? Are they off 20% as well?

  104. Jay says:

    Donald Trump and Robert Kiyosaki of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” gave an interview on the book they co-wrote. Here’s an interesting exchange:

    KIPLINGER’S: Given what is happening in the real estate market, is it a good time for your readers to get into real estate investing?

    KIYOSAKI: Absolutely not, that’s really ridiculous. You should always buy low and sell high. The bad part about it is that so many financial guys are suddenly recommending real estate. My answer is that I like it when markets crash because that’s when I go back in.

    TRUMP: The market hasn’t crashed; it’s just not as good as it was two years ago. Two years ago, the market was the greatest in the history of the world. And now it’s a good market. It’s not a bad market now. But you just can’t get lucky; you have to know what you’re doing.

    KIYOSAKI: You got to be smarter today.


  105. 007 says:

    Welcome back.


  106. James Bednar says:

    I might make a run through the open house circuit this afternoon.


  107. sas says:


    Get to know the per/year taxes on that property. I would imagine its pretty high.

    Those tall ceiling are a pain to keep a home warm and cool. Utilitie bills will be a bitch.

    Honestly, its not an attractive house, not much “curb appeal”. I think at that price, you could get alot better house. But, if your heart is set on that house, anything over 700,000 may be a mistake because in about 2-3 years, I predict that is how much that house will be worth.

    Nothing like home values going down, while property taxes go up… but hey thats NJ.
    and we all love NJ because we have family here and good pizza joints. Although my family never helps pay the bills…

    Know the trends….they are your friends ;)

  108. Hudson Will says:


    leaving a polite letter under the front door of homes, or in the mailbox, that are selling and that you would consider is a great idea and a friend of mine did exactly that, He actually went to the street he and his wife had yearned to live on, and just put letters under into all boxes asking if they were considering selling in near future please contact etc etc. They got their house. it is particularly attractive for sellers now because they are feeling the cold wind of a down market and will resent even more having to give any % over to a realtor. You are offering them the opportunity to not feel so bugged by the down market, to retain a little pride!! Try this idea and let the board know your results. And good luck.

  109. Spelunker says:

    i like the house. its just really really out there in price. Then again if you’re looking at 848K homes then maybe money is not so much of any object. In my mind homes that flirt with a one million dollar price tag should LOOK like a million dollar home. you know 8 bedrooms and three car garage and the like.

  110. Spelunker says:


    do you think it will take as long as 2-3 years for that house (or others priced like it) to go from 848 – 700K?

  111. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    Yuriy Says:
    October 22nd, 2006 at 12:40 am

    I looked at the picture and what struck me right away was it had only a 1 car garage. It must be a tiny lot.
    These are grubbing sellers.

  112. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    Great post and excellent work

    Open your eyes grubbers and look!

    Hard Place Says:
    October 21st, 2006 at 4:36 pm
    Wife’s away so the mouse will play. Just some examples of the downturn…

    Let’s call this “Turning Back the Clock” since prices are going back down below last year or earliers levels. I would do more, but I’m getting kind of sleepy…

    MLS #: 2230230
    SP: $ 550,000 on 10/2/06
    Previous Sale Price (PSP): $537,168 on 10/12/04

    MLS #: 2257938
    SP: $ 563,000 on 10/2/06
    PSP: $532,000 on 1/2/04

    MLS #: 2273808
    SP: $ 570,000 on 10/3/06
    PSP: $540,000 on 5/7/03

    MLS #: 2262946
    SP: $ 492,500 on 10/12/06
    PSP: $527,500 on 5/15/05

    MLS #: 2259465
    SP: $ 350,000 on 9/28/06
    PSP: $341,250 on 8/26/04

  113. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    NH Says:
    October 21st, 2006 at 11:37 pm
    Hi all,

    I’ve been reading this blog for awhile and just had an accepted offer. 20% off asking, thanks for all your advice. 799K to 645K.

    20% off of what?????

    Was $799K an inflated price over 2005????

    30%+++ off of a peak 2005 Price gets a pat on the back from Bob.

    NOOOOOTTTT”””””ING else



  114. Blow blow blow your house Down says:



    The Real misery begins. Then hope fades into papapapa PANIC!




  115. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    Please report back to this board on any 30% + lowballs and acceptances.

    Lets celebrate your success.

    You’ll need these type of price cuts to keep up with the escalating property taxes anyway.



  116. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    Remember 30% + Off of Peak 2005 prices not some dreamed up bloated price.

    This is cause for celebration!!!

    Good luck and


  117. gary says:

    There’s an open house in Harrington Park today, a FSBO. It is an auction starting @ $390K and the owner states that the house will be sold to the highest reasonable bidder by tonight.

    Is he saying that he’ll accept at least $390K? Isn’t it a little arrogant that he believes his house will sell within hours?

    Anyway, I laughed when I read the listing. It’s in today’s Bergen Record.

  118. Zac says:

    Can someone give me the street address of this listing? – MLS#: 2326732 thanks.

  119. rhymingrealtor says:

    2326732 — 1021-23 central ave Plainfied NJ


  120. Zac says:

    Thanks KL.

  121. sas says:

    “do you think it will take as long as 2-3 years for that house (or others priced like it) to go from 848 – 700K?”

    Yup, I do. My current thinking is we will see avg of 10% declines from Summer 05 highs for at least next 3-4 years.

    This is being generous too. But, alot can happen between now and then. Just one mans opinion ;)


  122. sas says:

    I would add to that, better, higher end towns, will see avg 5% declines.

    but hey, look how many people bought a house on margin? Just a slight dip in home value, and they lost it all baby. So, I think we can all agree, its going to get alot worse, before it gets better.

    But hey, they are not making anymore land, and we have good pizza in NJ.

  123. Spelunker says:


    personally i am hoping for declines of this amount to occur within one year. we have seen some of these already and i believe this is just the tip of the iceberg.

  124. Spelunker says:

    … maybe a Japan style housing crash in depth and speed. only no sushi. jersey pizza!

  125. scribe says:


    The house you like, but it’s been sold 4 times since 1999 …

    What about ringing doorbells and asking the neighbors?

    Maybe the house was sold repeatedly for a variety of reasons, or maybe it was being flipped … or maybe there’s a problem neighbor.

  126. sas says:


    True. I think right now the hardest thing to predict is the “velocity” or “slope” of the decline, but the destination is major house value declines. But the declines are really going to hurt those whom bought in the tops….

    If you are considering buying, I recommend holding, or perhaps just moving. There is no economical future for NJ. And when…not if….but when NYC financial sector takes a hit….look out. Those housing prices declines will be harsh and sharp.

    So..we will see. Either way. Know the trends, plan and prepare for them.

    Well, time for football.


  127. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    Get used to it grubbing sellers….Sticker shock…2005 is the past…accept it.

    To many lifestyles impacted with a weakening real estate market so the bunch of these cruddy slick talkers will keep fighting and fibbing all the way to the end.

    Don’t listen to one of them.
    I would suggest listen to some of the honest posters on this board.

    I know a few real estate folks and they are conccerned at what’s happening.



  128. oomph says:

    oh what a pessimistic lot!

  129. v says:

    A pessimist is a well informed optimist.

  130. Blow blow blow your house Down says:

    Buying something at 30% discount is a pessimist?

    Hahaha…Sorry charlie Lean times heading your way.

    Less money in realtors, builders, mtg brokers, landscapers, plumbers, appraisors and in the pockets of Buyers is GOOD!


  131. v says:

    As a buyer, can i ask if the house was ever a crime scene?

  132. oomph says:

    at 62 years old I’ve seen this come and go several times. Prices have to come down so we can buy! But over the long term they only go up. Bought my first house early 1970’s 13 % interest $42,000.00. Glad I did. But I guess I’m not well informed.

  133. v says:

    If you told a realtor/current seller “prices have to come down”, they would classify you as a pessimist. In my book you are well informed.

    Your earlier unqualified remarks about us being pessimists promoted my response. Stating your complete assesment helps.

  134. Al says:

    And In eaarly 60th 6000$/years was good very salary….
    And in 40th the apartmeents in Manhatten cost 40$……
    what next??? let’s go back to 1800th may be?

  135. Al says:

    But wait you ccould build your own house back than, and there was no need to get any permints either – anybody got home data from 1800’th??

  136. patient homebuyer says:

    i agree with the posters who said we are off 12-15% in most markets.

    and (it’s diffrent here lol) this includes manhattan. don’t belive me just check out today’s times real estate section

    one other thing,i was out at a friends place in long island yesterday it is in a really nice area (they bought in 96 and are staying no heloc there either)
    well on round swamp road there are 4 sale signs all over with extra signs that say “new price” these are homes in the 1.5-3m range

    this will be ugly

  137. v says:


    “shut out of home ownership”

    Well that is a ‘realtor’ scare tactic. As someone on this blog once said, if everyone is shut out then who will buy? Do you oomph have an answer?

    How many jobs in 1960 got outsourced? Did anyone in 1960 even think of outsourcing?
    Well an aveage house on the market costs 450-500K. If we applied the 60s ratio of 2X salaray, i need to make 225-250K a year. Is it feasible for most in NJ to make 200K+ a year?

  138. 007 says:

    Went to several open houses at Bridgewater this afternoon. Price range from 600k to 650k, one at 749k. The signing books show 2 to 5 people before us. Agents asked where we live. I think they tried to find out if we are renting or own a house already. All houses have small lots (0.14 acres) except the last one (749k). One already down 20k, and other agents all said there would be room to negociate the prices. But still I think they are all over priced, especially the last one. The 749K has bigger lot but I think it is at least 100k over priced at current market.
    Too bad, still not a buyer market. Hope that it will get down by next year.


  139. oomph says:

    v I agree I felt the same way back then and then and you had to come up with 10% down. It wasn’t a bowl of cherries. High interest rates in the 70’s and young wife saleries didn’t count for a mortgage. My first house had a garage apt for added income, I didn,t like being a landlord but needed it. There were no condo’s to get into the market with. There are houses or condo’s on the market you can afford. ask the coalminers and steel workers of that time about outsourcing. School teachers, nurses, and many other professions were underpaid. It’s the same today, it’s hard but worth it. If the RE market crashes outsourcing will not be your problem. Huge recession or depression will.

  140. NH says:

    agree with oomph,

    If the real estate market “crashes”, we will have ruge recession or depression. Consumer spending which propels our economy will come to a grinding halt. Jobs will be lost and people looking to buy with lowball offers will still not be able to buy as they will be unemployed.

  141. still_looking says:

    can anyone give me an approximate value for a 10 acre lot in basking ridge nj with a 5000 sq ft mansion (needs some work) from the 1930’s with a large pond 3 car garage (with work space above?)

    Thanks in advance.

  142. UnRealtor says:

    “Prices have to come down so we can buy!”


    Knock yourself out chief:


    I’ll wait for prices to normalize from the 100-year-high, if you don’t mind.

  143. oomph says:

    next year it will be the 101 year high

  144. Funny Guy says:

    “can anyone give me an approximate value for a 10 acre lot in basking ridge nj with a 5000 sq ft mansion (needs some work) from the 1930’s with a large pond 3 car garage (with work space above?)”

    How about between $1MM and $100MM? C’mon dude, did you think we were at the GS website?

  145. v says:

    “If the real estate market “crashes”, we will have ruge recession or depression. Consumer spending which propels our economy will come to a grinding halt. Jobs will be lost and people looking to buy with lowball offers will still not be able to buy as they will be unemployed.

    In our opinion this kind of thinking will put our family in h(arm)s way. If this really turns out to be a depression, we will use the downpayment we have collected so far to wade through the difficulties.

  146. oomph says:

    good luck gary lots of fools waiting for you to save them and thier home. Or find a builder, he’ll gladly buid it for you. Maybe you should apply to habitate for humanities!

  147. oomph says:

    Al of course there was color tv we even had batamax vidio by 70, it wasn’t the dark ages but you can stay in the dark ages if you prefer.

  148. It's crashing says:

    Hello oomph HELLO HELLO!!!

    oomph Says:
    October 22nd, 2006 at 4:53 pm
    at 62 years old I’ve seen this come and go several times. Prices have to come down so we can buy! But over the long term they only go up. Bought my first house early 1970’s 13 % interest $42,000.00. Glad I did. But I guess I’m not well informed.

    Yeah Oomph you paid 2 – 2.5 times income to buy a house. WAKEUP!!!!


    Now prices are 6-9 times salaries. Can you see the difference now?

  149. It's crashing says:

    Do not listen to morons like oomph. He thinks he is something special a genius beasue he bought when he did. Prices are out of wack.

    Today is different than 30 years ago.

  150. It's crashing says:

    Ask oompph about those option ARM loans back in 1970 or those credit cards or those car leases???
    what about those 0% loans to buy a tv back then?
    Fools of al ages uuummmph have been sucked into to the consumer finance ponzi scheme. Quite a few morons in retirement uuummmph using reverse mtgs and credit cards.

    They did not exist uuummph!

    For someone your age you are a disgrace.

  151. oomph says:

    Blame my generation for putting you in this bind. Did I and your parents screw you? Grow up and go to work and get what you want, don’t cry over it. SHOW SOME OOMPH!

  152. chicagofinance says:


    I think we have discussed at length on this website how homes are a valuable lifestyle choice, but what many conveniently overlook is the tremendous ongoing costs of ownership. Certainly owning is cheaper than renting longer term. However, what ownership has been in the past was a wonderful method of “forced savings” through mortgage debt reduction that owners seem to have mistaken for vast “real” [inflation-adjusted] appreciation. That belief is patently false, and there are much better places to invest. The concern with the recent results of real estate seem to point to the fact that people are in fact NOT “saving” [the way to increase your real estate holdings on a real basis] and instead are digging themselves into a [potentially unfillable] hole. Let’s just hope that we can all live with what comes next…..


  153. Hard Place says:

    Being a little curious. Does anyone know how to see how historically rents have moved in certain regions? I’d like to see how they have moved over the last 20-30 years. Thanks. I’m going to hunt on Google and see what I can find, but any pointers would be appreciated.

  154. oomph says:

    I agree with you but poeple have to live somwhere and the only choice is to own. Most of this blog is about affordability of housing.
    Housing may be overpriced at this time 5-10%
    So many rejoice at Kara homes problems and seemigly hope builders stop building. No new homes comming to the market, (not overbuilding) will drive prices of existing homes up. look at a website like- building-cost.net if you really want to know what a house is worth. The cost to build or re-build determines value of all homes. Land cost is the main consideration. For 60 plus years I’ve been told buy land they aint”t making anymore, and that’s allways been true but look to this state and local gov’t. They are driving up the cost of land by green spaces, agencies that drive up the cost of developement, Pinelands north and south. High building permit costs tree commissions, soil conservation, cafra, dep,zoning, improved building codes, on and on. People aren’t buying now but that can’t last long. They have a need for housing and the cost can’t go down much. Materials have gone up and labor can’t go down much. Don’t forget these construction workers are as someone today said on this blog are blue collar and they buy homes too. Lucky for everyone they are not union or no-one could afford a house. This is the market and it will not change.

  155. Al says:

    I guess you are trrying to sell huh… good Luck “oomph”

    BTW that was very nice Salespitch – and of course you forgot the Rich Foreginers who come and buy all our homes.

  156. Al says:

    And Yes people do need to live somewhere – And Since I do not live in a house I live under 287/1&9 bridge but with cold weather coming I am thinking of moving somewhere south. And also my internat provider isvery unrelaiable – he keep saying that vibration from the cars keep massing the commection up – what a liar…

    Dude, I will live in the apartment forever if it means 1/5 of thhe cost of owning and you will keep paying for my kids schools, police and municipal services.
    And as far as rent will raise – well they tried to raise the rent in my apartment comples and after about 15% of residents gave them moving out notice withing a month of the raise they lowered the price right back.

  157. v says:

    ” No new homes comming to the market”


    Home building stats for last month jumped 6%. I wouldn’t call that slowing down.

    If the home builders just shut down like the autos, we will have a recession. My feeling is that the builders who are selling at 20%-30% premium will start cutting thier profits but will still survive. check home builder balance sheets .. they are still profitable after giving away thousands in incentives. Once the builders cut prices exisitng home selllers will have to match. The last thing builders will do is close shop and walk away. Brand name is thier main selling point. They will not let thier brand name go down the drain.

    A realtor on the main topic is predicitng a 20% cut by the end of next ear.

  158. UnRealtor says:

    oomph Says: “next year it will be the 101 year high”

    Hate to burst your, er, bubble, but the party is over — Exibitus Bagholderis:

    18 Meadowbrook Road
    Short Hills, NJ

    Jun 15, 2004 – Closed $755,000 (MLS 1671861)

    Mar 05, 2006 – $879,000 (MLS 2253723)

    May 01, 2006 – $829,000

    Jun 05, 2006 – $795,000

    Jul 13, 2006 – WITHDRAWN

    Jul 14, 2006 – $795,000 (MLS 2299446)

    Sep 07, 2006 – WITHDRAWN

    Sep 09, 2006 – $745,000 (MLS 2317848)

    Sep 27, 2006 – Under Contract

    Oct 20, 2006 – Closed @ $705,000

  159. oomph says:

    I’m a homebuilder for many years I always have a house to sell. I started in the middle of the savings and loan scandle in the early 90’s, when everyone was running scared. Do you think I’m beat. No this takes the crap out of the market. No more substandard builders, less ugly tract homes “ie” mini-mansions on small lots. buyers looking for value not bling.And maybe building lot prices will come down and my overhead will be less. As I said I do believe houses are overpriced but only by 5- 10%. If they come down much more I’ll retire and move to the south and build a beautifull home for my wife an I to live out our lives.

  160. v says:

    oomph –
    “Materials have gone up and labor can’t go down much. Don’t forget these construction workers are as someone today said on this blog are blue collar and they buy homes too. Lucky for everyone they are not union or no-one could afford a house.”

    Most of the labor comes from south of the border. I’m not saying that’s good or bad. All i’m saying is that they have constraints. The last thing they want to do is draw attention by forming unions.

  161. oomph says:

    If you think homebuilders are making 20- 30% NET, I said NET profit you live somewhere no-one can find. If thats the case why are homebuilder stocks down and why is Kara Homes bankrupt? You have no idea how much overhead and carring costs are.

  162. v says:

    That’s after the recent downturn.

  163. oomph says:

    v- homebuilding starts are when they start digging, these permits were pulled months ago. there are obligations on new construction that lasts . Look at building permits locally. I have one in process. I didn’t say it has slowed but that it should meet the market demand, and there is still a demand for new constructon. As to construction workers from south of the border they dont’t work for builders. They work for subcontractors as labor. They don’t have thier own construction companies if they are illegals. If thier legale are you predjudist? Do you think the legals work for nothing. They have the same high overhead as any buisness in NJ

  164. v says:

    oomph –
    I know what home building starts are. I was trying to disprove your claim that ” No new homes comming to the market”.

    “Do you think the legals work for nothing. They have the same high overhead as any buisness in NJ

    The overhead will come down when more people are looking for a small number of jobs.

  165. Omps, You believe that the current price is just about 10% over-priced? I guess you are soliciting offers within that range for your houses. I would recommend you go to church and pray harder. Your dirty rotten scoundrel. Why don’t you buy at those prices? if you really think it is good price, you should BUY rather than sell. I sense the utter desperation when you come here to convince us to buy! You come to the wrong place.

    The price has to come down at least 40% off. Guys, hold on tight. Let the guys like oomps drown!

  166. oomph says:

    v you think the Gov’t fees and insurance premiums will come down if there are less people working? Did you have any formal education? Dead man walking- I’m not offering any homes here, just interested in the thoughs of fools. my homes sell but I only build one or two a year and I am proud of each and every one. Do you create anything but bulls***

  167. v says:

    Has government fees gone up by 100% in the past 5 years?? Has insurance rates gone up by 100% in the past 5 years??? What part of building cost goes towards fees and insurance? and finally what has formal education got to do with government fees?? Does formal education preach about real estate going up 100% every 5 years?? Does formal education talk about contradicting onself every other statement?? I mean do you really remember what you posted last?

    Well you got your four houses for this year and next to bull*** all over.

  168. oomph says:

    dead man walking- I didn’t realize this blog was closed to opposing opinions. All builders are dirty rotten scoundrals.

  169. Al says:

    Buiding materials:
    In the last 3 month demand for future orders on constructtion grade wood and partile board dropped to nearly zero and right now costs of constructin materials dropped significantly – with the housing permit applications in 5 years low the costs of materials are not lickelly to rise – most likelly to drop. just so you know.
    Riht now the only people who are cheering and saying that homes priced right are the ones who are either selling or used to super-profits from last 5 years. If you can reire do so now, if you have to sell 2-3 newly build houses for ridiculos amount of money to retire – too bad for you, you might not being able to retire after all – thats what “easy fast 100% proof money” do to people.

    If you are close to retirement and close to loosing it all – I am sorry for you, in large part because wellfare comes out of everyone’s pocket – so if everybody would be finantially responsible life would be a lot better.

    In every bubble there are people who make it big, and there are people who loose it all, and than there are majority of people who did not follow the herd – they are staying even.

  170. Jay says:

    I have read that building materials have come down about 30% due to slack demand. Oomph, is that true?

  171. oomph says:

    Yes permit and other fees have gone up a lot as has insurance. but again the cost of land and the carring cost,(interest) has gone up at least as much as housing if not more in THIS STATE

  172. Al says:

    link and thee quote:

    A steeper than anticipated third quarter drop in lumber and plywood prices surprised many analysts who originally expected an orderly
    slow down in residential construction activity. Prices for residential construction materials (lumber, OSB, plywood) dropped as demand
    weakened and costs continued to rise with current prices dangerously close to, or below production costs. The decline in lumber and
    plywood prices is likely to shave third quarter earnings for major North American forest products companies who continue to adapt by
    cutting production and curtailing. Compared to the third quarter of 2005, lumber prices have declined 16.8%, OSB prices decreased 27.8%
    and plywood is down 24.9%. In addition, new OSB production scheduled to come on line late in the year will push panel prices down
    further. The combination of over-supply in both housing inventories and construction materials have added to the already pessimistic
    views on current and expected sales activity in lumber and panel markets. According to NAHB estimates, annual housing starts are
    expected to be 1.85 million for the year and decline to 1.66 million before rebounding in the middle of 2007. Furthermore, builder
    sentiment declined in September for the eighth consecutive month to its lowest point in 16 years.

    Notice: they are talking about housing reboung by middle 2007 – wishfull thinking

  173. Jay says:

    Oomph, thanks for prompting a spirited debate. I for one love to hear opposing opinions as it leads us to constantly re-examine assumptions and justify our positions.

  174. Al says:

    “oomph Says:
    October 22nd, 2006 at 11:28 pm
    Yes permit and other fees have gone up a lot as has insurance. but again the cost of land and the carring cost,(interest) has gone up at least as much as housing if not more in THIS STATE ”

    What have come up will come down.
    Good luck selling your homes. Ill buy it from you half price. ohh wait you’d rather go bankrupt because you have no choice anyways – you must sell high or you loose all your investment money since you did buy land at it’s peak price….. paid peak prices for construction materials, and inflated fee’s for everything.

  175. Al says:

    Anyways I am off to sleep now, I guess I am turning into a very mean person when I am tired, Good night everyone.

  176. oomph says:

    I don’t know the % drop in some materials. Lumber is comming down Copper down slighly but sheetrock and insulation has been increasing for years roofing and siding went up a lot since Katrina. Builders can’t time the comodity market, we pay what it costs. again it’s the cost of land and the cost to make it buildable in the state of new jersey. $350.00 to the state of new jersey for permission to discharge storm water if you want to build. (this one is new last year). If I don’t build I guess the lot won’t get rain on it. These fees ad up to thousands and have to go into the price.

  177. oomph says:

    goodnight al
    Interesting evening on this blog, To clarify I left Union County More than 30 years ago. I build in Ocean County. My labor costs are at least 20% less than North Jersey but incomes are probably also 20% less. I can sell new homes around $ 300,000.00. You can’t find this in North jersey but my point is that it is all local, what the market will cost and what the market will buy. Don’t miss out on ownership.

  178. v says:

    Is 300K just for building or does it include land? What’s the SQ ft?

  179. oomph says:

    al – one last thing, why are you so happy that the lumber industry is in a slump, selling at cost. Don’t you like the people that work in that industry, do you want them laid off. Or are you hoping for the demise of the U S economy? You must be a gov’t employee on the dole.

  180. oomph says:

    v $295500.00 3 bed 2bath ranch 2car garage on more than 1/4 acre, custom ranch home on a website you probably know. NO REALTORS

  181. v says:

    FSBO? Do you know anyone who does buisness in Middlesex?

  182. oomph says:

    sorry no

  183. oomph says:

    v- You know it’s funny but when you said middlesex I started thinking. 33 years ago I left Union county for middlelsex couty to Evergreen apts, it’s probably still there, @ $190.00 a month. Couldn’t afford a house there so bought in Bradly Beach so far from NYC. Haven’t looked back big move, great move.

  184. Jay says:

    While I believe ownership is much preferred over renting, there are good times to buy and bad times.

    We are at the beginning of a major correction (crash, meltdown or whatever you want to call it) after 5 years of unprecedented and irrational housing price inflation fueled by abnormally low interest rates and resulting classic bubble psychology (speculative greed, and fear of being priced out).

    This is not a good time to buy. I would think that this is obvious to all by now.

  185. thatbigwindow says:

    Let me comment on Everette…

    Everette is just one example of many in the under 30 age group. Simply put, we are all fustrated that we have been unfairly priced out of the market because of this house bubble. It is not a good thing when there are not many first time home buyers because of affordibility.

    Patience my friends…

  186. Al says:

    There is no such think as “UNFAIRLY” priced out. Statement is correct, but there is nothing unfairabout it – nobody took money away from the first time homebuyers.


    I blame this on TV – too many stupid “reality” shows thats people watch ( I truly hate the word “reality” in description of these shows – did they ever show a regular person working – the longest part of everybody waking time???)

  187. FirstTimeBuyer says:

    I need some advice from you thoughtful folks.

    We like a small house in a nice neighborhood in Nutley on the Bloomfield border. Pros: New kitchen, hard wood floors, fenced in yard, attached garage, finished basement. Cons: 2-beds, one bathroom, needs interior paint and new roof.

    It’s been on the market since August, when it was listed at $399K. It’s now listed at $389K. We’re thinking of putting an offer in of $319K (20% off original list). What do you think?

  188. UnRealtor says:

    “We’re thinking of putting an offer in of $319K (20% off original list). What do you think?”

    Ask a realtor to send you all Nutley listings which closed in 2002 under $350K, and see what you think.

    If the house you like today measures up well against those, it may be a decent deal. If it doesn’t…

  189. FirstTimeBuyer says:

    Go back to 2002, huh? Thanks for the advice!

  190. rhymingrealtor says:

    First time buyer,

    2 bedrooms have a tough resale value.

    Do no byt the leasthouse you can afford in this tpwy of market – you need to be able to stay put. You will not be able to sell a 2 bedroom in a down market.

  191. lina says:

    That’s interesting about a 2 bedroom. I saw a place that has 3 bedrooms, but the third bedroom is TINY (the 2 main bedrooms are 11×11, and the third is 11×6).

    Do you think that size of the third bedroom impacts resale?

  192. omps, my “formal education” probably is more than the total of your chain, from you up to your grand-grandpa. But how does it have anything to do with the housing debate? My point is don’t lie here. If you seriously think the the market is very attractive, go buy it yourself! The fact that you are selling tells more than anything! you are a desperate lying bastard.

  193. Fellas, hold tight. Let’s watch the real estate crashing with great delight. It will do the country a great favor by ensuring the long term health of the economy. The future of this country entails the crashing of the bubble. It will also do a great favor to the traditional value: working hard and honestly to make a living, saving for a better life rather than gambling with zero-down interest only mortgage. Those people in the industry are all corrupted criminals. They create the bubble for their own gains while average joes will have a upside down mortage. Somebody robs the bank for $20 and get 10 yrs. These criminals essentially steals millions from the average guys. They should get life without parole. They claim they contribue a lot to the economy in the past few years. They did contribue a lot, not to the economy, but the inflation.

    I think David Lehreah should be prosecuted for business fraud. In his vocabulary, there is no truth or honesty. My opinion, He is a total waste.

    Let the flippers lose their pants and realtors lose their skirts.

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