Lowball! May 23 – June 23, 2007

Welcome to another edition of Lowball!

Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.

The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2363053   East Orange City  $169,900    $67,900    $63,000    62.9%   $106,900  
 2343436   Branchburg Twp.  $25,000    $17,000    $13,500    46.0%   $11,500  
 2335411   White Twp.  $99,900    $69,000    $55,500    44.4%   $44,400  
 2388027   Montague Twp.*  $262,500    $159,900    $159,900    39.1%   $102,600  
 2359771   Phillipsburg Town*  $120,000    $95,000    $75,000    37.5%   $45,000  
 2358403   Elizabeth City*  $419,900    $299,900    $265,000    36.9%   $154,900  
 2323942   City Of Orange Twp.*  $239,900    $158,999    $153,000    36.2%   $86,900  
 2311072   West Milford Twp.  $318,501    $225,000    $210,000    34.1%   $108,501  
 2040082   Montville Twp.  $799,000    $649,000    $537,000    32.8%   $262,000  
 2342858   Jersey City*  $235,500    $177,500    $161,000    31.6%   $74,500  
 2367803   Paterson City*  $362,500    $259,900    $250,000    31.0%   $112,500  
 2278330   Millburn Twp.  $3,195,000    $2,540,000    $2,215,000    30.7%   $980,000  
 2354260   East Orange City  $230,000    $210,000    $160,000    30.4%   $70,000  
 2310008   Newark City  $230,000    $170,000    $160,000    30.4%   $70,000  
 2338764   Vernon Twp.  $236,500    $175,000    $165,000    30.2%   $71,500  
 2381569   Summit City  $669,000    $469,000    $469,000    29.9%   $200,000  
 2291434   Lambertville City*  $323,400    $254,000    $230,000    28.9%   $93,400  
 2384074   Bedminster Twp.  $354,900    $254,900    $253,000    28.7%   $101,900  
 2261925   Edison Twp.  $419,900    $319,900    $300,000    28.6%   $119,900  
 2327519   West Milford Twp.*  $424,900    $319,900    $305,000    28.2%   $119,900  
 2333550   Caldwell Boro Twp.  $535,000    $415,900    $385,000    28.0%   $150,000  
 2326900   Springfield Twp.  $485,000    $379,900    $350,000    27.8%   $135,000  
 2381653   Woodbridge Twp.*  $414,000    $314,000    $300,000    27.5%   $114,000  
 2336362   Glen Ridge Boro Twp.  $999,000    $790,000    $727,000    27.2%   $272,000  
 2329811   Roselle Boro*  $409,900    $300,000    $300,000    26.8%   $109,900  
 2303748   Rocky Hill Boro*  $439,900    $339,999    $322,000    26.8%   $117,900  
 2248078   West Orange Twp.  $599,900    $455,900    $440,000    26.7%   $159,900  
 2304099   Morris Twp.  $1,495,000    $1,149,000    $1,100,000    26.4%   $395,000  
 2351070   Lopatcong Twp.  $209,900    $164,900    $154,500    26.4%   $55,400  
 2393638   Roselle Boro  $275,000    $250,000    $202,500    26.4%   $72,500  
 2318656   South Orange Village  $1,351,080    $999,999    $999,999    26.0%   $351,081  
 2353613   Millburn Twp.  $2,695,000    $2,125,000    $2,000,000    25.8%   $695,000  
 2320749   Ogdensburg Boro  $333,000    $259,000    $247,200    25.8%   $85,800  
 2385843   South Bound Brook  $254,900    $254,900    $190,000    25.5%   $64,900  
 2336039   Jefferson Twp.*  $435,000    $425,000    $325,000    25.3%   $110,000  
 2379470   Paterson City*  $179,900    $150,000    $135,000    25.0%   $44,900  
 2387981   Piscataway Twp.*  $472,500    $339,900    $355,000    24.9%   $117,500  
 2287822   Mendham Boro  $585,000    $460,000    $440,000    24.8%   $145,000  
 2270294   Madison Boro*  $525,000    $399,999    $395,000    24.8%   $130,000  
 2288631   Ogdensburg Boro  $339,900    $299,000    $256,500    24.5%   $83,400  
 2388493   Elizabeth City  $204,900    $204,900    $155,000    24.4%   $49,900  
 2353189   Vernon Twp.*  $349,000    $265,000    $265,000    24.1%   $84,000  
 2333985   Old Bridge Twp.  $207,000    $189,000    $157,500    23.9%   $49,500  
 2322258   Pequannock Twp.  $499,000    $439,000    $380,000    23.8%   $119,000  
 2372169   East Orange City  $112,875    $95,545    $86,000    23.8%   $26,875  
 2346078   Franklin Twp.*  $195,999    $179,900    $150,000    23.5%   $45,999  
 2285801   Franklin Lakes Boro  $1,995,000    $1,699,000    $1,530,000    23.3%   $465,000  
 2259194   Millburn Twp.  $1,595,000    $1,349,000    $1,225,000    23.2%   $370,000  
 2326177   Passaic City  $395,000    $335,000    $305,000    22.8%   $90,000  
 2365258   Maplewood Twp.  $549,900    $495,900    $425,000    22.7%   $124,900  
 2284548   Mendham Boro  $565,000    $449,950    $440,000    22.1%   $125,000  
 2347438   Franklin Boro  $79,500    $65,000    $62,000    22.0%   $17,500  
 2314194   Hillsborough Twp.  $525,000    $460,000    $410,000    21.9%   $115,000  
 2298241   East Orange City  $199,900    $150,000    $156,200    21.9%   $43,700  
 2351110   West Milford Twp.  $248,900    $224,900    $195,000    21.7%   $53,900  
 2339321   Clifton City  $389,000    $329,900    $305,000    21.6%   $84,000  
 2289139   Paterson City  $184,900    $149,900    $145,000    21.6%   $39,900  
 2359926   Paterson City  $148,900    $129,000    $117,000    21.4%   $31,900  
 2280286   Hardyston Twp.  $349,900    $279,900    $275,000    21.4%   $74,900  
 2361272   Fairfield Twp.  $449,900    $370,800    $355,000    21.1%   $94,900  
 2280124   Edison Twp.*  $658,000    $529,000    $520,000    21.0%   $138,000  
 2385914   Bridgewater Twp.*  $309,900    $299,900    $245,000    20.9%   $64,900  
 2290258   Newark City*  $360,000    $319,900    $285,000    20.8%   $75,000  
 2380205   Ringwood Boro  $239,900    $239,900    $190,000    20.8%   $49,900  
 2331386   Linden City  $265,000    $210,100    $210,100    20.7%   $54,900  
 2325085   Springfield Twp.*  $614,500    $519,000    $487,500    20.7%   $127,000  
 2405957   Bridgewater Twp.*  $189,000    $189,000    $150,000    20.6%   $39,000  
 2319474   Nutley Twp.*  $849,900    $689,000    $675,000    20.6%   $174,900  
 2370225   Bloomfield Twp.  $339,900    $275,000    $270,000    20.6%   $69,900  
 2283696   Allamuchy Twp.  $439,900    $380,000    $350,000    20.4%   $89,900  
 2267873   Franklin Lakes Boro  $1,200,000    $1,099,000    $957,000    20.3%   $243,000  
 2364336   Pohatcong Twp.  $699,000    $569,000    $558,000    20.2%   $141,000  
 2270570   Mendham Twp.  $749,900    $599,900    $599,900    20.0%   $150,000  
 2390298   Parsippany-Troy Hills  $299,900    $299,900    $240,000    20.0%   $59,900  
This entry was posted in Lowball. Bookmark the permalink.

42 Responses to Lowball! May 23 – June 23, 2007

  1. James Bednar says:

    Sales data for this period can be found here:

    http://njrereport.com/files/Sales-Jun07a.xls

    jb

  2. James Bednar says:

    For those of you interested in the large dollar lowballs.

    MLS Town % off OLP $ off OLP
    2278330 Millburn Twp. 30.7% $980,000
    2353613 Millburn Twp. 25.8% $695,000
    2364757 Westfield Twp. 16.4% $550,000
    2338355 Harding Twp.* 11.6% $550,000
    2301093 Millburn Twp. 16.2% $549,000
    2388811 Harding Twp. 8.5% $500,000
    2285801 Franklin Lakes Boro 23.3% $465,000
    2304099 Morris Twp. 26.4% $395,000
    2259194 Millburn Twp. 23.2% $370,000
    2318656 South Orange Village Twp. 26.0% $351,081
    2322698 Chatham Twp. 16.7% $349,900
    2321368 Bernardsville Boro* 8.6% $300,000
    2317805 Morristown Town* 15.8% $299,900
    2354827 Westfield Twp.* 15.3% $295,000
    2273782 Franklin Lakes Boro 14.8% $279,000
    2336362 Glen Ridge Boro Twp. 27.2% $272,000
    2337789 Essex Fells Twp. 13.4% $267,530
    2040082 Montville Twp. 32.8% $262,000
    2267873 Franklin Lakes Boro 20.3% $243,000
    2371402 Kinnelon Boro 12.3% $240,000
    2352474 North Caldwell Boro* 11.4% $225,000
    2321079 Millburn Twp.* 7.5% $225,000
    2383406 Summit City 11.0% $220,000
    2335027 Morris Twp.* 14.2% $210,000
    2344858 Ridgewood Village 19.0% $209,000
    2294319 Summit City* 18.9% $207,500
    2381569 Summit City 29.9% $200,000
    2320177 West Orange Twp. 13.8% $200,000
    2364806 Madison Boro 8.5% $200,000
    2369326 Livingston Twp. 11.1% $199,000
    2352973 Randolph Twp.* 15.0% $195,000
    2390743 Westfield Twp. 10.9% $195,000
    2362829 Ridgewood Village 11.4% $194,000
    2361266 Raritan Twp.* 19.5% $184,900
    2329648 Millburn Twp. 14.2% $184,000
    2351574 Livingston Twp. 7.3% $182,500
    2301768 Scotch Plains Twp.* 14.7% $180,000
    2364142 Westfield Twp. 13.2% $175,000
    2319474 Nutley Twp.* 20.6% $174,900
    2387340 Fairfield Twp.* 15.0% $174,000
    2308161 Franklin Lakes Boro 16.4% $172,000
    2371690 Bernards Twp. 8.6% $170,900
    2304012 Harding Twp. 14.5% $170,000
    2348892 Raritan Twp.* 16.3% $169,100
    2283919 Monroe Twp. 14.3% $165,000
    2344174 Summit City* 12.7% $164,000
    2248078 West Orange Twp. 26.7% $159,900
    2368651 Westfield Twp.* 16.2% $159,000
    2358403 Elizabeth City* 36.9% $154,900
    2366151 Washington Twp. 16.5% $152,000
    2329220 Kinnelon Boro* 13.1% $151,000
    2364009 Mendham Twp. 13.0% $150,001
    2333550 Caldwell Boro Twp. 28.0% $150,000
    2270570 Mendham Twp. 20.0% $150,000
    2305235 Clark Twp.* 13.6% $150,000
    2362809 Westfield Twp.* 11.1% $150,000
    2351077 Chatham Twp. 10.3% $150,000
    2359081 Summit City* 8.1% $150,000
    2367599 Summit City 7.1% $150,000

  3. Chuchundra says:

    Where do you get this data from?

  4. James Bednar says:

    Local MLS systems.

    jb

  5. justbought says:

    Nice list JB. That first house in Millburn was listed first at $3.995 with different agent for 6 months. So overall $$ drop is $1.780mm. But that means nothing in that price range. A $10mm home in summit was reduced to ~$7mm i think. $3mm lowball? dont think so

  6. James Bednar says:

    A number of those original prices were nothing but a dream.

    jb

  7. metroplexual says:

    Hey Jim where is the Allamuchy lowball?

  8. James Bednar says:

    20# Johnsonburg
    3/1 Ranch on 2.24ac
    From the pictures, looks like a nice piece of property. Barn in rear.

    jb

  9. syncmaster says:

    What do the asterisks at the end of the town names mean?

  10. metroplexual says:

    It is right off of exit 19 on I-80. I think I will check it out today it is only about 4 miles from where I live.

  11. scribe says:

    What was the Branchburg property for $25,000?

  12. metroplexual says:

    Jim, are you sure it is 20 J-burg? NJACTB has it listed as Board of education.

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4sr.cgi?&srch_type=1&ms_user=monm&district=2101270

  13. James Bednar says:

    As-is trailer in an age restricted park.

    jb

  14. James Bednar says:

    207, I was trying to obscure the address.

    jb

  15. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Outstanding stuff, JB.

    One thing … don’t see a lot of Bergen County houses in there.

    Saw one Ridgewood house … but not much else.

    What do you think may attribute to this? Think just nothing is selling in Bergen, or the sales aren’t low enough to qualify for lowball?

  16. metroplexual says:

    Sorry I guess I am a bit dense this morning. I just thought you had a dyslexic moment. Thanks!

  17. James Bednar says:

    What do you think may attribute to this? Think just nothing is selling in Bergen, or the sales aren’t low enough to qualify for lowball?

    What do I attribute it to?

    Mainly the fact that I was too lazy this morning to merge the NJMLS data along with GSMLS.

    The vast majority of Bergen County transactions take place on NJMLS, not GSMLS. We are only looking at a subset of the Northern NJ market here. Also missing would be the Hudson MLS transactions (MLSGuide) as well as Middlesex, Monmouth/Ocean, etc.

    jb

  18. syncmaster says:

    JB, the data is interesting. Thanks. Looks like median DOM in my town is about 40 and median % off OLP (again, in my town) is 2.7%. The median SP is down to 315k. All told, not too shabby, but not spectacular either. I live in a ‘plankton’ market so this can’t be bad news.

  19. scribe says:

    grim,

    Thanks.

    There are an amazing number of trailer parks in NJ.

  20. UnRealtor says:

    Do we get a spreadsheet this week?

    :)

  21. UnRealtor says:

    RE: 2278330

    This property actually sold for 45% less than original asking:

    Dec 02, 2005 – $3,995,000 (MLS 2223612)

    Feb ??, 2006 – $3,750,000

    Mar ??, 2006 – $3,500,000

    May ??, 2006 – WITHDRAWN

    May 15, 2006 – $3,195,000 (MLS 2278330)

    May 31, 2006 – $2,995,000

    Jul 26, 2006 – $2,850,000

    Sep 07, 2006 – Under Contract

    Sep 16, 2006 – $2,540,000 (MLS 2278330)

    Oct 29, 2006 – Attorney Review

    Nov 26, 2006 – WITHDRAWN

    Dec 19, 2006 – $2,540,000 (MLS 2278330)

    Jan 31, 2007 – Attorney Review

    Feb 02, 2007 – Under Contract

    May ??, 2007 – Closed @ $2,215,000
     

    This buyer actually got a good deal, this is one substantial property.

  22. UnRealtor says:

    Oops, missed the spreadsheet link, thanks!

  23. Chuchundra says:

    Is there some way to get access to the MLS data if you’re not a realtor? RealtyTrac or something similar?

  24. Robert Troll says:

    “There are an amazing number of trailer parks in NJ.”

    Not in Bergen County. No trailer parks here, I am pleased to report.

  25. syncmaster says:

    Followup to my previous post – I just compared the Oct 2006 sales data posted by JB to the most recent one. DOM in my town is down from 60 to 40. Median sale price is down from 370k to 315k. Huge drop in price but atleast homes are actually moving.

  26. Greg says:

    Gonna be interesting when the 10 year is yielding 6% BTW check out http://www.jerseylegalforums.com

  27. Clotpoll says:

    Grim,

    Thanks for including that trailer in Branchburg.

  28. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    JB – Gotcha.

    As a prospective NJ buyer … one who visits this site daily and hopes to be in NJ this winter … is it out of line to ask if you’ll be surfing the NJMLS for lowballs?

    Either way, you do an outstanding job and keep up the good work.

  29. # 24 Rober Troll There is a trailer park in Lodi, and one in Little Ferry, both of course Bergen Co. Obviously you are a newbie to Bergen, Donny.

  30. Lindsey says:

    JB said:

    Mainly the fact that I was too lazy this morning to merge the NJMLS data along with GSMLS.

    Yes, Mr. Bednar, don’t think I haven’t noticed how much you enjoy slacking off. The warm weather getting to you, hmmm?

    You’re penchant for staring absentmindedly out the window will be your downfall young man. You really need to put some effort into this site, the place is falling apart.

    Please. I (and my wife, I’m sure) wish I was as lazy as you. Thanks for everything JB.

  31. Lindsey says:

    You say trailer park, I say manufactured home community.

    Actually, there probably aren’t enough trailer parks in NJ and the ones that do exist are under a lot of pressure from developers who see the land as very attractive for other types of development.

    In all seriousness, trailer parks may be the only source of unsubsidized affordable housing in NJ. If there were a few more of them maybe we wouldn’t have COAH, “builder’s remedy” and other court mandated “solutions” to the lack of affordable housing in NJ.

  32. metroplexual says:

    Lindsey,

    You are spot on. These land uses are disappearing fast because many times these places border commercial zones and it takes very little to nudge a land use board to rezone or at least overlay zone so a Big box can plunked down on it.

    About 8 years ago there was an article in the WSJ that covered the impact in the Seattle area when people were evicted from their trailer park. This was due to the dearth of buildable land, out there topgraphy and hydrography are a major issue. So the park residents ended up homeless. But the strange part was they decided to live outside in the wilderness on the Snoqualmie river. THeir luck was bad that year because they had floods along the banks and a few of them died.

  33. Dave says:

    Seems like this is only happening in certain areas. Was hoping to see South Amboy on here. Love the info I’m reading here. Making think I should hold off a little on my home purchase.

  34. Dave says:

    Hmmmm, some of these areas my realtor looked into and never showed any lowballs as high as these… somebody may be holding out? >:0

  35. BuyNextYear says:

    Nice post on craigslist…whoever did it. It was funny!

  36. James Bednar says:

    Seems like this is only happening in certain areas. Was hoping to see South Amboy on here. Love the info I’m reading here. Making think I should hold off a little on my home purchase.

    I’m only posting the areas that I have access to.

    South Amboy is represented on a different MLS system, a system I don’t have access to. Sorry.

    jb

  37. Rich In NNJ says:

    Robert Troll / Donald,

    Not in Bergen County. No trailer parks here, I am pleased to report.

    Once again you state an opinion as fact and once again, you are wrong.

    2 in Lodi, 2 in Moonachie and 1 in Mahwah

  38. Rich In NNJ says:

    I didn’t see 3B’s post including Little Ferry.
    So that would be a total of 6 trailer parks in Bergen County.

  39. HOUSE OF CARDS says:

    Home Sales Drop, Consumer Spending Gains: U.S. Economy Preview

    By Bob Willis

    June 24 (Bloomberg) — Home sales dropped last month to a four-year low and consumer spending picked up, signaling the housing recession isn’t rippling through the economy, reports this week may show.

    Combined purchases of new and previously owned homes fell to an annual rate of 6.897 million, the fewest since April 2003, according to the median forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Americans spent 0.7 percent more on goods and services last month, a gain not exceeded since January 2006, another report may show.

    The spending report may also show that, for the first time in three years, inflation slid within the Federal Reserve’s preferred range. Still, policy makers will hold the interest rate target unchanged when they meet this week and will maintain that inflation remains their biggest concern, economists said.

    “The U.S. economy, ex-housing, seems to be showing strong signs of recovery, which will prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates any time soon,” said Eugenio Aleman, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.

    A report tomorrow from the National Association of Realtors may show sales of previously owned homes fell to an annual pace of 5.972 million in May from 5.99 million a month earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed.

    The following day, the Commerce Department is forecast to report new homes sold at a 925,000 annual rate, down from April’s 981,000 pace.

    “We haven’t seen the bottom yet for home sales,” said Ellen Zentner, a macroeconomist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Housing will continue to be a drag on growth.”

    Builder Losses

    Homebuilders also see no relief. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey’s largest homebuilder, last month reported its third consecutive quarterly loss as sales plummeted, it cut prices and wrote off land options.

    “Without a doubt, things have slowed since about March,” said Ara Hovnanian, the builder’s chief executive officer, in an interview June 18. “There is not a recovery that is about to happen.”

    The projected gain in consumer spending last month would follow a 0.5 percent increase in April, the Commerce Department’s June 29 report is forecast to show. Personal income probably rose 0.6 percent, after dropping 0.1 percent in April, according to the survey median.

    Job and income gains are keeping consumers spending even as food and fuel prices jump and home values drop.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=asBwUQ4aKUWg&refer=news

  40. shane says:

    JB, can you please add atleast zip code if not the whole address?

Comments are closed.