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From the NY Daily News:
State delinquencies on mortage payments grow
Increasing numbers of home-owners statewide are falling behind on their mortgage payments – especially those with high-interest subprime loans.
The mortgage delinquency rate for one- to four-family homes in New York rose to 4.5% by the end of June, up 0.61 percentage points, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
And the delinquency rate for New Yorkers with subprime mortgages was a hefty 12.1% – up 1.5 percentage points since the first quarter. It was a troubling 16% – an increase of 2.4 percentage points – for subprime adjustable-rate mortgages, which shift from low teaser rates at a certain point.
The number of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages in foreclosure rose to 10.4%, up 2.4 percentage points.
While mortgage problems are worse in places like Michigan – where 1% of all residential mortgages entered foreclosure in the second quarter – the New York numbers were cause for concern.
“You ain’t seen nothin’ yet,” predicted Carol Finnegan, a foreclosure prevention counselor at Brooklyn Housing & Family Services.
From the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
Mortgage delinquency climbs in Pennsylvania
Thousands of Pennsylvanians are among the growing number of homeowners nationwide stuck with higher mortgage payments as interest rates tick up and housing values fall.
A survey done by the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that while the national delinquency rate for mortgage loans on residential property stood at 5.12 percent in the second quarter, Pennsylvania’s delinquency rate was 5.58 percent, up from 5.20 percent a year ago. The delinquency rate measures the number of homeowners who are behind in their payments but have not yet entered the foreclosure process.
…
Subprime adjustable rate mortgages in Pennsylvania posted the highest rate of delinquency at 15.02 percent . Nationally, subprime ARMs had a delinquency rate of 14.82 percent .
Prime loans, which are given to consumers with the best credit ratings, accounted for the lowest percentage of delinquent loans in Pennsylvania at 3.03 percent, but that percentage was the 11th highest in the country.
From the Wall Street Journal:
Record Number of Homes Entered
Foreclosure in Second Quarter
By DAMIAN PALETTA
September 6, 2007 8:25 p.m.
A record number of homes entered the foreclosure process in the second quarter, and housing market problems have put mounting strain on prime loans, according to data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
This marked the third straight quarter of a record number of homes entering foreclosure. Pressure remained the most severe on subprime adjustable-rate mortgages, as 18 states reported at least 19% of these loans were delinquent. More than 26% of the borrowers with subprime ARMs in Mississippi and West Virginia were delinquent, MBA said.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, 0.65% of homes entered the foreclosure process in the second quarter, shattering the 0.58% record set in the first quarter. The second quarter foreclosure starts were 44% higher than in the second quarter of 2006.
The rise in foreclosure starts comes despite intensified efforts by regulators, lawmakers and lenders to stem the time of delinquencies, with close to 2 million adjustable-rate mortgages resetting by the end of next year into higher monthly payments.
Of the 44 million loans included in the MBA’s National Delinquency Survey, 5.12% of all loans were past due, or delinquent, on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with 4.84% that were past due at the end of the first quarter. The MBA’s delinquency statistics do not include loans that are already in the foreclosure process.
The worst performing sector was subprime adjustable-rate mortgages, as 16.95% were past due, up from 15.75% in the first quarter and 12.24% in the second quarter of 2006. Of the subprime ARMs, 12.40% were considered “seriously delinquent,” an early indication that they could be headed for foreclosure.
The performance of prime loans worsened in the second quarter as well. Total loans past due rose to 2.73% in the second quarter, up from 2.58% in the first quarter and 2.29% in the second quarter of 2006.
For prime adjustable-rate mortgages, 4.15% were past due, up 54% from the second quarter of 2006. Also, the number of prime ARMs entering the foreclosure process rose to 0.62%, a 296% increase from the second quarter of 2006.
5.12% of 44 million houses = 2.2 mil.
1] The economy is still good.
2] Arm resets have not yet reached peak.
—–
Now on to Paulson the great.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/turmoil-could-take-months-resolve/story.aspx?guid=%7BCF588366%2D2D23%2D4396%2D809D%2D88295D248F87%7D
Paulson said estimates of 2 million foreclosures are exaggerated
he also said
It’s certainly going to be into the weeks, maybe a number of months,
There have been real strains in the capital markets and across some of the credit markets,” Paulson told the Nightly Business Report on PBS. “And I think this will take a while to play out, and almost certainly over time this will have an impact on our economy.”
2nd qtr – State-by-state mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-09-06-mortgage-delinquencies-chart_N.htm
NJ
Foreclosure – 1.23%
delinquencies – 4.33%!
Approximately 54,000 loans delinquent in NJ, 15,000 facing foreclosure?
jb
BW Article,
A Bold Idea for Bernanke
Frederic Mishkin thinks the Fed should cut rates quickly if home prices tumble
by Peter Coy
But the paper is important because it outlines a different way to conduct monetary policy. Traditionally, the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates until it sees concrete evidence that the economy is slowing. Mishkin says the harm that falling house prices do to the economy is predictable, so there’s no sense waiting until the damage is done. By acting quickly, he theorizes, the Fed can buoy consumer spending and minimize the loss in economic output while suffering only a small bump up in the inflation rate. Such a policy, he writes, “can be extremely successful at counteracting the real effects of [a] very large housing slump.”
While Mishkin refrained from discussing current monetary policy at Jackson Hole, other economists have been less shy, with some suggesting a cut in the federal funds rate of a full percentage point to avert a housing-led recession. Millions of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are tied to short-term interest rates that the Fed influences. By reducing those benchmark rates meaningfully, the Fed could keep many adjustable rates from being reset beyond borrowers’ ability to pay. “The Fed is already behind the curve,” David A. Rosenberg, North American economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER), wrote on Sept. 4.
BW Article
Light at the End of the Subprime Tunnel
The Mortgage Bankers Assn.’s new numbers are grim, but the group’s chief economist says a recovery, though delayed, is in sight
The percentage of U.S. mortgages entering the foreclosure process set a record in the second quarter of 2007, even before the late-summer subprime meltdown, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. announced on Sept. 6. The group’s chief economist, Douglas Duncan, says the ongoing turmoil in the financial markets will delay the market’s eventual recovery by at least a few months.
On the bright side, the mortgage group said, the increase in foreclosures was concentrated in just four states: California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. Those states had big shares of adjustable-rate mortgages, high prices, and lots of home purchases by speculators. Excluding them, “we would have seen a drop in the rate of foreclosure filings,” Duncan said in a statement accompanying the report. Problems are also severe in the Upper Midwest industrial states of Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana, where manufacturing job losses have damaged the housing market.
Richard DeKaser, chief economist of Cleveland-based bank National City (NCC), said in an interview that he roughly agreed with Duncan, predicting that foreclosures will probably peak sometime around the middle of next year. He predicts that prices will hit bottom then as well, dropping by roughly 4% from their peak in the 2007 second quarter as measured by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. That prediction is mild compared to some other forecasts that prices could drop 10% or more, but it is pessimistic by historical standards. Home prices have rarely fallen on a national basis since the Depression of the 1930s.
Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV:Hovnanian, late Thursday reported a $77.9 million loss on a 27% revenue drop.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Aug. nonfarm payrolls surprisingly weak, fall 4,000
Job growth came to a screeching halt in August, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls contracted by 4,000 in August. This was the first decline in payrolls since August 2003. The decline was much weaker than than the 115,000 increase expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.6% in August from the previous month. Average hourly earnings increased 5 cents, or 0.3% to $17.50. This was in line with expectations. Earnings are up 3.9% in the past year. The average workweek held steady at 33.8 hours. This was also in line with expectations.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Payrolls Fell 4,000 in August; Jobless Rate Holds at 4.6%
The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in August for the first time in four years, raising the risk the economy may stall in the second half and serving as a warning for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Employers cut 4,000 workers from payrolls, compared with a revised gain of 68,000 in July that was smaller than previously reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The unemployment rate held at 4.6 percent as almost 600,000 people left the workforce.
“Rate cuts will be right around the corner,” Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. “At this stage, they don’t need the cover of any more weak economic data to act.”
The drop in jobs is the clearest sign yet that the deepening housing recession and turmoil in credit markets are hurting the wider economy. Payrolls are one of the main factors, along with sales, incomes and production, that help determine the starting point of economic contractions, and today’s report may raise the odds the Fed reduces rates even before the Sept. 18 meeting.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast that payrolls rose 100,000 during the month, according to the median of 88 estimates, compared with an originally reported 92,000 gain in July. None of the analysts foresaw a decline, as predictions ranged from 35,000 to 140,000.
Revisions subtracted 81,000 workers from payroll figures previously reported for June and July.
Wages gained 3.9 percent in August from a year earlier. Workers’ average hourly earnings rose 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, after a 0.3 percent increase the previous month.
…
Manufacturers, builders and the government led the drop in payrolls last month. Factory payrolls slid by 46,000, the most since July 2003, after slipping 1,000 a month earlier. Economists had forecast a drop of 10,000 in manufacturing employment.
Payrolls at builders dropped by 22,000 after falling 14,000 a month earlier. Government payrolls decreased by 28,000.
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 60,000 workers last month after boosting payrolls by 78,000 in July, the report showed. Retailers added 12,500 jobs after hiring 5,000 in July.
“The Mortgage Bankers Assn.’s new numbers are grim, but the group’s chief economist says a recovery, though delayed, is in sight”
is it me or these guys making too much money for stating the obvious? seriously, tell us something that we dont know.
Here is how your typical economic report sounds these days only I used the example of breathing:
Although we are caught up in a lengthening exhale, it is with great certainty and optimism that this will soon be followed by an inhale.
Disclaimer: The author of this article has a vested interest in breathing. He is both long and short of breath.
stuw6,
lol
Inventories of homes are high because prices’s are over-inflated. No home is worth its current price. Therefore builders and homeowners need to adjust to new reality and reduce prices’s to more acceptable levels. Example , in Upper Montclair, NJ builder reduced prices’s for new homes from 1.6-1.9 mill.(sat on a market for over a year) to 1.1 Mil. and sold them all in approximately 1 month. Builder still made fair profit.
That’s -4k with +120K in birth death model adjustments.
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
morning call: stock futures points to 1% drop at open. bond rally pushes 10 year yield down to 4.42% (well ahead of my schedule). gold up $8. oil down 35cents.
This is a perfect staging for rate cut and bail out plan.
Beazer gets alleged default notices on senior notes
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/beazer-gets-alleged-default-notices/story.aspx?guid=%7B885423B6%2D7A4D%2D4EC1%2DB66D%2DF93D4F34258B%7D&dist=hplatest
bi: enough already. Please ;)
so we lose 4,000 jobs in a nation of about 300 million and all of a sudden the fed is supposed to drop money from the sky? the article from the Asian newspaper yesterday was right on point: Americans are flipping out and the pain so far has been minimal. I guess I naively thought that this housing bubble would be easy come, easy go. I never would have imagined that ostensibly smart people would glibly advocate crushing the dollar to keep this party going. If Bernanke caves to this pressure, we are all cooked
Nothing but crocodile tears…
jb
#19 skeptic: If Bernanke caves to this pressure, we are all cooked…. and housing prices will still continue to drop, and irinically maybe even more.
Continuing on my example posted yesterday,
the plan can make Joe make no down payment during refi by setting proper write-off value and term of the loan.
Also there will be no losers if it works. As the real estate market stablized, more transactions will benefit middlemen while property appreciation will benefit potential buyers.
>bi Says:
September 6th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Here is what I understand how the bail out plan works. Say Joe bought his house for $400K in 2005 using IO loan with 5% interest. The total interest paid in 2 years is $40K. Now the house is assessed at $360K and Joe is doing refi with the bank with fixed rate with N years so he can have the same monthly payment. The net in net,
Joe keeps the house but his previous mortgage payment is treated as “rent” as if he has been renting 2 years from the bank.
Now who are the winners and losers?
Winners:
1) Joe: his credit would be destroyed if he walked away.
2) bank: it would lose $40K since the house could be sold at deep discount, say, $320K;
Losers:
1) Middleman: foreclosure brokers, transaction lawyers, title insurance and etc.
2) Current renters who expected blood bath in winter
JB: I would like to think that Bernanke would not be swayed by one month’s employment number, but since we are now a nation of cry babies, maybe he will be.
If he does, cut and continues to cut, in your opinion what does that do for housing, as far as continued price declines.
I still don’t think he’ll cut. There are just too many precedents that would be set by him doing so.
1. The FED has never been in the business of saving the stock market (which is up for the year).
2. The FED doesn’t listen to pleas from the president or congress/senate, let alone business leaders.
3. The FED would lose any future defense against the unforeseen. (i.e. impact of arms resets, terrorist attacks, BI message board posts, etc.)
Even if he does cut the lending rate, the market will rally for 3 days and then it will be right back to where it was before, only then the FED will have less ammo to use against a real crisis.
You can make arguments about whether you like or dislike federal chairman’s moves, but you can’t claim they are not knowledgeable of the impact of their decisions.
BTW: Nasdaq futures are now down well over 1% this morning.
Housing in our area is not going to drop much more than it has already. It will stay flat at worst for a few years. If it does drop substantially more, I’ll say I was wrong. Currently, I’m not and by the listings I receive on a daily basis, I see no indication that it will.
Be patient Gary. The arms have not yet reset ;). After that, you will be able to better gauge pricing changes.
If he does, cut and continues to cut, in your opinion what does that do for housing, as far as continued price declines.
The problem isn’t a restrictive Fed Funds Rate, it is a lack of confidence in the credit markets.
Do you think a rate cut will instill, or undermine, confidence? This is the important question.
jb
>>I still don’t think he’ll cut. There are just too many precedents that would be set by him doing so.
the latest jobs report was the final straw all but assuring a rate cut either this meeting or the next.
JB [27]: IMO, the rate cut could not instill confidence as the rest of the world banks are raising lending rates. How does that make our economy look. Does it surprise anyone that many Asian countries are lessening their US debt purchases? How will a lower lending rate affect this? That is the question we must ask.
From MarketWatch:
Beazer gets alleged default notices on senior notes
Beazer Homes USA Inc. Friday said it has received purported default notices from U.S. Bank National Association, the trustee under the indentures governing several outstanding senior notes. Beazer, an Atlanta-based home builder, in a press release said the notices allege the company is in default because it has not yet filed its quarterly financial report with regulators for the period ended June 30. The notices allege the defaults will become events of default if not remedied within 60 days, Beazer said. The company said it does not believe it is in default and the notices are “invalid and without merit.”
Yes Richard [28] a cut will come in the future, but I’m pretty confident that it will not occur until the recession worsens and retail purchases fall significantly lower. An up market + a single poor employment report do not equal a rate cut. Admittedly, the last 4 employment reports were not so hot, but until the predictions of recession are better than 50%, no cut IMO.
#27 JB:Do you think a rate cut will instill, or undermine, confidence? This is the important question.
I guess that depends on the definition of confidence, and where. For instance, does it instill confidence in sellers that now that rates may be coming down prices will go back up, or at least not fall any more.
And will potential buyers feel confident that rates are dropping, so houses may become more affordable, even without further price drops.
Or will it be like the early 90’s, where we had falling interest rates,and falling house prices?
As far as our creditors, I believe a rate cut will not instill confidence in them, and bye by dollar.
Ben Bernanke has been portrayed in major media and even this board an accademia who is only interested in what the target inflation rate should be. people seems forget his root: from a farming town called dillon in south carolina, he knew what “compasionate conservative” exactly means before karl rove made this phrase when he worked in his father’s local phamacy store. in contract, greenspen is more entreprenial type. he built a successful forecasting business in mathattan in his early career and he is friendly to market speculators.
#25 gary: so none of the listings you receive show any kind of price drops, none at all?
I know in my haughty Bergen Co town (or now that we like to believe we are haughty), I am seeing price reductiosn (e-mails) on at least a weekly basis, some of them quite significant.
We actually have listings with a 3 handle aagain, something a realotr in my town tolde me 2 years ago we would nevr see again.
There was an article in the NYT’s today about realotrs leaving the business, and the article referenced Montclair as one of the last NJ towns to finally see a slow down in housing.
seems to me some people on this board have too much bubble in their heads so they forget economy 101: fed eases credit when economy slows and tighten credit when it gets too hot.
Bernanke was going to cut even before today’s job numbers. The boys on Wall Street are holding a gun to his head. Too many toys to pay for and like any good junkie, they’d rob their Grandmother just for another hit.
I guess that depends on the definition of confidence, and where. For instance, does it instill confidence in sellers that now that rates may be coming down prices will go back up, or at least not fall any more.
I’m not talking about confidence in the housing market, I’m talking confidence in the credit and secondary mortgage markets.
Psychology and confidence in housing will take years to restore. No Fed cut will fix this.
jb
#37 JB: Thanks for yoru thoughts.
From MarketWatch:
Indymac says it may swing to a loss in third quarter
Indymac Bancorp Inc. said it may swing to a loss this quarter as the second-largest U.S. independent home lender expects to sell fewer loans into a balky secondary market and cut back on making riskier loans.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, the Pasadena, Calif., lender said it may break even or post a loss of as much as $36.8 million, or 50 cents a share. Indymac made $86 million, or $1.19 cents a share, in the third quarter of last year. The forecast reflects how the turmoil in the credit market has made lending unprofitable for now and forced some big lenders like Indymac to change their business models radically.
Comrade 3b,
The listings I see do have price reductions, they simply went from absurd to chuckle levels. And any desirable house in a “sought after” town illicits bidding within tolerance to greedy buyers expectations. Sure, take your pick of the 3 bedroom splits and capes in borderline towns. They’ll sit but as I said, there will be competition for the more desirable homes.
I’m a trade upper as are most of my friends, so we see it first hand. There still is enough people willing to sell their soul for the smaller selection of those “wanted” homes.
From Reuters:
U.S. regulators to probe rating agencies
U.S. regulators plan to probe how the major credit-rating agencies are paid and their independence from Wall Street firms that issue bonds, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Friday.
Amid the crisis in the mortgage market, the regulators have begun to examine how the ratings firms evaluated subprime-mortgage-backed securities that grew into a trillion-dollar market, the report said.
Critics have said the financial fortunes of ratings firms are closely tied to the volume of securities deals and that higher ratings often spur deals, the report said.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission wants to see whether clients that sell more deals and therefore generate more revenue for ratings firms, tend to get better ratings, the report said.
While there is no evidence so far of such preferential treatment, regulators are interested in examining the question because of the lucrative nature of the mortgage market, the report said, citing one person familiar with the matter.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY GRIM
media has bashed real estate middlemen too far so they become cry babies. one report yesterday even claimed that 1 in 7 mortgages will likely be default. appraently this is crying for more cookies.
#40 gary: “There still is enough people willing to sell their soul for the smaller selection of those wanted homes.”
For now maybe, but even that too will change.
I know among my family/friends/acquatienances, teh whole psychology has changed, nobody talks about up,up, and way any more, and I am no longer being pooh-poohed, and called doom and gloom.
In fact we are asked what do we think,and how did this happen and why. They are just waking up to the fact that at the end of the day it was not rocket science, but just plain old common sense.
The psychology appears to have changed , and that means everything.
Gary,
What does it matter in your situation? The only number you should care about is the spread on the trade-up.
If home prices fall, that means the price of your home will fall as well. If you’ve got to simultaneously buy and sell, chances are these broad market moves will be a wash.
Please don’t tell me you don’t think you’ll see your own equity evaporate along with those “laughable” asking prices. Or do you really think you can both command a “laughable” price, while being able to secure a deal on the new home?
jb
jb,
I know my equity will go bye-bye to some degree as well. To me it’s all about price. That’s the only thing that matters.
40#, many in my area witnessed same situaton before august event. it is another issue whether the credit crunch will completely change the market dynamics. often you have two or three other offers ahead of you for a “desirable” home. a friends of mine wanted to move to my town but his bids for two houses with 3% less than asking were overtaken by others. since he already sold his house at price 10K over his asking, he is renting a house in my town.
That 4K layoff number is nonsense. I worked at a top ten bank that mergered with a top ten bank and the paper report we laid off 5K people. However, everyone was offered a voluntary package and only people 22-32 who were thinking of going back to school, people over 55 who wanted to retire and pregant or working mothers who viewed it as a chance to get a break from work took the package. That and a few nitwits who were already scheduled to be fired for performance issues who got their termination date pushed up a few months, but got very lucky it was labeled a layoff and got a juicy package. Not one single hard working person who wanted to work got laid off. This is not 1989 to 1992 where there were mass layoffs. Even places like AHM that let go a lot of people had places like WAMU in the parking lot looking for people. Of course WAMU wasn’t looking for cab drivers turned mortgage brokers but they picked up any real banking, IT, Auditing, Finance or real mortgage person to fill their open jobs. Back when EF Hutton, Drexel, etc went under in the late 1980s there were no recruiters standing in front of the building. This is such an overeaction to a meaningless number.
And yes, spread just so happens to be a factor. A 10% drop on a house currently valued @ 350K isn’t as drastic as on a 600K house and the spread does become thinner. 20% down on 600K is 120K but 20% down on a 540K sale is 108K. That’s only 12K difference in DP but 60K difference in sale price. Multiply that 60K over 30 yrs. w. interest and it’s a huge difference. Its all about the price.
Re Rating Agency Probes
It’s essentially the same situation as the Grubman/analyst story in the late 90’s.
Remember the Bush plan only helps 80,000 of the 2 million subprime borrowers facing increased mortgage costs, plus they are all smaller mortgages. The Bush plan will have no impact on the 500K+ houses in NJ.
Richie Says: September 7th, 2007 at 9:59 am
HAPPY BIRTHDAY GRIM
R: 30?
Ratings
Moody/S&P QTY
(000) CUSIP DESCRIPTION COUPON
% Maturity
Call/Put/Pre-re YIELD
% PRICE
1 BAA3/A- 150 22237LNR9 COUNTRYWIDE HM LN NT 3.250 05/21/08 10.735(M) 95.125
Countrywide short term bonds still investment grade according to Moodys but now yielding close to 11% – What UP?
Hey folks. My friend is buying a house. Here is an e-mail from her broker (I swear it is real). I know you will enjoy this spin. I redacted certain information, to keep identities and locations confidential. But I did keep in her mispellings and bad grammar. Enjoy!
“Below is the statistics and the individual house listings. As you can read in both emails, the market in _______ is unchanged. There is only a minimal decrease from last year. I normally do not share the statistics with buyers but in your case I belive I needed to demonstrate the current martket in ________ as the resources you are referencing may be outdated. The house at ________ surpasses with it’s amenities and condition many house in its current asking price range of $___________. With the posibility of the interst rates dropping I believe many buyers that are staying low key will start buying houses. My firm performed a survey from last year vs. this year. The results were the prices stay the same or increased by a percent or two but the length of time sold increased.
I do not want you to loose this home as I see it a perfit fit for you.”
Gary,
I am a recent homeowner and I follow the market closely. The RE market is not only based on fundamentals but also on a complex interaction between those fundamentals and buyer/seller sentiment. In the end it is the buyer that sets expectations long term. Do you not see a change in buyer sentiment? I live in one of those “nice towns” and I can assure you that I have seen a change even in the relatively short time that I have been a homeowner (less than a year). I have a bunch of new neighbors and we all swap buying stories. I agree with you that some towns hold on longer and stronger than others and I would argue that my town is one of those. But even in my town I see the market slowing to a crawl and prices coming down a bit (it is slow but unmistakable). Just across the street from me a nice 3 bedroom 2 bath colonial that would have sold in late 2005 for close to 1 million was just put back on the market for low 800’s after sitting with little to no bites the first time. The houses in better areas of town generally go quicker thank the ones on a main road, close to the tracks, etc. However like everything else all parts of the market are linked. As the house on the main road finally went under contract down my block for 20% under original asking do you not think that this will alter the prices on homes further into the neighborhood? There is a point when the cost of owning one of those prime homes goes beyond buyer willingness to pay that amount. I have personally seen it all summer. Unless we have massive job loss I think we will see a gradual retrenchment of prices, yes even in these prime NYC commuter towns. Like JB said, if you trade up as we will in a few years then this should not be too much of a concern.
#36
“Bernanke was going to cut even before today’s job numbers. The boys on Wall Street are holding a gun to his head.”
You got this right. The Fed will put a spin on it that are trying to help the consumer but the reality is that they are bailing out the Banks.
Rates have risen on most consumer loans in recent weeks now we will get a nice fed rate cut to widen margins for the banks even more.
also, they can pay even less on CD’s and savings accounts again.
Merry Christmas for Wall Street.
Foreclosures for Main Street.
agreed. take joe’s case in post 22# as example. joe would loose nothing financially if he walked away since he “rented” two years at very favorable rate (his credit would be a big problem). but bank would loose big time.
>56# You got this right. The Fed will put a spin on it that are trying to help the consumer but the reality is that they are bailing out the Banks.
#40 gary-
“And any desirable house in a “sought after” town illicits bidding within tolerance to greedy buyers expectations. Sure, take your pick of the 3 bedroom splits and capes in borderline towns. They’ll sit but as I said, there will be competition for the more desirable homes.”
almost every house has something undesirable about it – be it, town, location in a specific town, needs updating, or just plain ugly – whatever. in the past, people paid up even for these houses – now, they’re just sitting.
now there is one more element of undesirability – price –
since we are entering a time when no one can bank on a big profit, and with lending standards tightening etc., price matters.
i don’t see overpriced “desirable” houses flying off the shelves the way i did last year.
just my observation
54#,
This is exactly what i predicted earlier.
“With the posibility of the interst rates dropping I believe many buyers that are staying low key will start buying houses. …”
#48 All good points, but how long are places like Wa-Mu going to be hiring?
And like everyhting else in the world of money, if you do not make money, especially on the “street”, you and your department are quickly expendable.
As far as layoffs, Citigroup and JP Morgan, even before the sub-prime melt down, have been having significant lay offs,and moving of operations to cheaper areas. I am surprised there has not been more media coverage on that.
Interesting read:
Investing
Get Aboard the Mortgage Bailout Plan
By Jon D. Markman
Special to TheStreet.com
http://www.thestreet.com/pf/newsanalysis/investing/10378291.html
#59 bi:This is exactly what i predicted earlier.
“With the posibility of the interst rates dropping I believe many buyers that are staying low key will start buying houses. …”
I guess you and that dim witted realtor cannot be wrong.
You do understand that these masses of people oont he sidelines, will still need to be approved, and have a down payment no less.
Where will you be celebrating Realtor safety week next week?
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/nar_observes_realtor_safety_week.html
“With the posibility of the interst rates dropping I believe many buyers that are staying low key will start buying houses. …”
and they will get good deals too with much lower prices..
#58 tcm I don’t see overpriced “desirable” houses flying off the shelves the way i did last year.
Agreed, and in fact I do not see anything flying off the shelf.
62#, what i said in my prediction was that realors would start to spin the numbers: the rate is dropping and the price will go up bababa… they will do the opposite to sellers citing messages from this board. i predict the activity will pick up this fall.
Agreed, and in fact I do not see anything flying off the shelf.
———————————————-
I see lot’s of flat screen HDTVs flying off the shelf.
I took a walk around the parking lot of a printing plant where I worked yesterday. 98% of the people who work here are blue-collar (40K/yr or less). My 95 Honda Civic was by far the oldest car on the lot. And you think these guys are gonna be able to make a downpayment on a home in NJ? Sure!
More proof of a drop off in consumer discretionary spending. Here are some comments made from Harley Davidson today:
The Milwaukee-based manufacturer said it now expects 2007 earnings of $3.69 a share to $3.77 a share, well below the average forecast of $4.12 a share in a survey of analysts by Thomson Financial.
“Initial reports about our 2008 model-year motorcycles from our dealers and the media have been excellent, but this is a difficult time for the U.S. consumer,” said CEO Jim Ziemer in a statement. “However, our U.S. dealers’ retail sales have fallen sharply during August.”
Against the current economic background, Harley-Davidson said it no longer expects worldwide dealer retail sales to increase during the second half of this year, with a “modest” revenue decline for 2007 and earnings per share falling 4% to 6%.
For 2008, management now expects the U.S. retail environment to continue to be challenging for motorcycle sales, with moderate revenue growth, narrower operating margins and earnings-per-share growth between 4% and 7%.
Harley-Davidson also withdrew its financial forecast for 2009.
Bi,
Don’t speak for others.
A little color here…..a lot of homeowners are sitting ducks now. Things in NJ are stable for now. Hurricane Chip is blowing full blast outside, but people are in their homes with the back-up generator going. As long as there are not job losses, we can limp along, but we have to wait and see. What is going to happen in the job market between now and Columbus Day?
REAL LIVE CASE STUDY
I closed on a house (actually, one unit in a 2-family house) in a nice Essex county town in April of 2007. (It was against my better judgment, but at least was affordable and has good fundamentals, e.g., walking distance to town and trains.) I have to sell in the next 6-8 months to take advantage of a job opportunity out of state. I’ll keep the group posted on how much of my 10% downpayment I lose — I’m not even counting the extra $20k we sunk into improvements.
Chifi, from Dealbreaker:
Jobs Report: The Wall Street Fall-Out
Everyone was watching this morning’s jobs data as a window into whether the Fed would cut rates and how deep such cuts might go. This numbers came in much lower than expected, leading almost everyone to conclude that a cut will come on September 18th. Goldman Sachs is now saying the most likely result is a fifty basis point cut. Some fear that even that won’t be enough to hold off a possible recession. But you know all that.
The numbers were low enough to be scary. The first time the powers that be reported job losses since 2003. But the scariest number—at least from where we sit—was perhaps the zero job growth in the financial sector. Ordinarily, at least in recent years, the financial sector adds twenty thousand new jobs every month. Last month they added zero.
In case you aren’t paying close attention, you should know that you work in the financial sector. The zero jobs number is most likely an over-estimation, given that we’ve recently been going through a phase where the numbers get revised downwards. That means job losses.
And from the looks of it, more are coming. If the Goldman story we led off with this morning is any indication, Wall Street firms are in a retrenchment phase, and cuts may well go deeper than has been previously reported.
Re Goldman:
It’s always sad when veteran employees with spouses/children/golf club memberships to pay for* are shown the door for no good reason (other than the market being in the toilet), but what of the neophytes, who haven’t even been around long enough to have their spirits and wills to live crushed? We’re told that eighty salespeople from Goldman’s Class of 2007, hired just two months ago, were notified yesterday that the firm is “reevaluating” their (collective) role.
The disposables were then given the option of being transferred into operations now or biding their time for the next three months waiting for an as-yet-undecided fate, which could very well include being “let go.” If this is the kind of crap deal being offered to the Mini-Masters of the Universe, what do you think is being proffered to the youth of, say, Bear Stearns?
*By which we do not at all mean to imply James Cayne should be laid off. You came to that conclusion on your own, don’t put that on us.
Happy ‘Dollar Under 80 Day’…
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w
I’m not sure that Fed reducing the prime overnight rate will do much to help housing. It might have an indirect effect on LIBOR, which governs many ARMS. But this is not guaranteed, as other articles have pointed out.
Most people who have ARMS have been moving into traditional 30-year mortgages, because they can’t even afford the pre-reset rates. This demand for long term credit, coupled with the pullback by bond investors due to the increase in defaults has pushed up long term interest rates, independent of of what short term rates are doing. Remember that short term rates were steadily increasing for years but had little effect on longer term rates, i.e. the Greenspan “conundrum”. I predict a similar disconnect to occur if the Fed starts reducing short term rates.
If/when the Fed does reduce short term rates, this will obviously cause the dollar to weaken and foreign investors will expect even higher yields for longer term bonds, so this might even make the mortgage market tighter than it already is.
A little color here…..a lot of homeowners are sitting ducks now. Things in NJ are stable for now. Hurricane Chip is blowing full blast outside, but people are in their homes with the back-up generator going. As long as there are not job losses, we can limp along, but we have to wait and see. What is going to happen in the job market between now and Columbus Day?
Albani: I’ve been saying all along that without a recession(job loss)we will continue to stay flat or decline marginally, however a year ago chances recession were slim to none, nowdays they’re between 50%-75%. By columbus day, we will be in the second quater of a contacting GDP economy.
Then it’s gonna be time to make money.
Can’t wait!!!
also, think back to how inflation affected mortgage rates in the 70s and 80s. If this happens again, housing prices will fall proportionately.
Why doesnt anyone seem to be looking at the big picture?
Consider articles like this:
Frederic Mishkin thinks the Fed should cut rates quickly if home prices tumble
and the recent article from financial times and coming out of europe as well. Asia and Europe are starting to open their eyes to our fiscal irresponsibility and the threat that that poses to their markets. At the same time most Americans are drowning in debt while their real income either drops or stays the same as inflation increases, decreasing their purchasing power overall.
Yet at the same time we hear constant calls for Fed rate decreases so that people and companies can access more credit and are more willing to do so. A significant portion of the consumer spending that has been supporting the market recently appears to be coming largely from home equity. Consider that the average home price in NJ is approx 350K and that if you follow the 2.5 times salary guideline with a 20% down payment then you are paying 70K upfront and then need to be making approximately 110K/year. The average income in NJ is about 65K and the USA as a whole has a negative savings rate. Yet people are suggesting that even with a historically high home ownership rate that the market should be manipulated to maintain these prices even though they are economically unsound when put into perspective with the ret of the economy/market.
What completely baffles me and makes me think that most of the “experts” that are sounding off from the banks and from wall street are full of BS and are only worried about their short term profits is that the current situation is obviously and inherently unstable. If all of the people calling for fed activity and housing bailouts got what they wanted the devaluation of the dollar will only accelerate. This means people has even less money then before while prices are going up. Unless painful steps are taken to keep inflation under control, reduce overall spending, and increase savings then the current fiasco will become a self-reinforcing cycle. That is until asia and eruope finally decide that we are to far gone and call in their IOU’s. Then the S**t hits the fan in a bad way.
The scariest thing to me in all of this is that there are only a handful of economists/financial guru’s/policy makers who dare to acknowledge the precarious position we are in. Right now the USA in essentially a Meth head. We got a taste of it and liked it so we went back for more. We can now quit the habit and deal with the withdrawal and the pain that goes with it or we can decide to take bigger and bigger hits until we come clean because we OD’d and ended up in the ER ( the dollar collapses). While I am not in finance I am educated enough to look at the data and make an educated guess
Business cycles exist for a reason. They have historically culled the weak and over extended (risk wise and financially). Forest fires out west are the perfect analogy. If regular moderate forest fires are prevented then you end up with monster fires covering hundreds of square miles. At the rate we are going we appear determined to hold out for that giant fire.
Steps off soap box… (I love my soap boxJ )
IS there anyway of finding out of all the loans that were scheduled to reset in Oct-Jan how many have already been refinanced and are still accounted loans scheduled to reset?
This will info will provide a clearer picture of the damage(huricane)coming.
Or the other way around. How many of these loans were denied their application to refinance and are now sitting ducks and destined to an auction near you.
Harley-Davidson cuts profit outlook
Fri Sep 7, 2007 11:42AM EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSWEN085320070907
If anyone wants wants to know how govt bailouts work, please fly New Orleans and look around.
MJ Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 10:57 am
“With the posibility of the interst rates dropping I believe many buyers that are staying low key will start buying houses. …”
and they will get good deals too with much lower prices..
What’s different now compared to three years ago is that the alternative financing is no longer available. When the rates were real low, a NINA loan with a comparatively high rate was still low by historical standards. That’s what moved the inventory. Today, borrowers have to qualify on their actual income. It won’t make a difference how low rates go. 5% 30 year fixed won’t matter if they can’t qualify.
From a sociological perspective, what I find very scary is how people allow marketing and envy to lure them into a form of financial slavery. When folks take out and use credit for things like televisions or homes in which they have no money down or readily available, the lender is simply accepting that person’s life (their future earning power+) as the collateral. It’s downright feudal! Then consider the way inflation is like a form of perpetual interest payments to the government against savers and your mind can really start to blow! Because the only good thing for a reasonably responsible, median income earning and extreme saving individual would then be a deflationary depression. But what fun is that?
Or have I had one too many martinis with lunch today?
Only people who can’t reinvent themselves get laid off and can’t find work, I used to feel bad for them but no longer do. Take for example NYSE floor brokers and clerks who got canned. NYSE paid 100% tuition and for certifications and it was an 8:30am to 4:30pm job, tons of people there with HS or BS degrees and no certificatons. They knew for 5-10 years that automation was coming. Many just did what they did and refused to go to school or get new skills, low and behold they got canned and some got a years pay. Then during that year they still did not update their skills and now they are in trouble. At some point if you are a Y2k person, internet bubble analyst or more recently a SOX consultant, mortgage broker or real estate agent, eventually for most of us our job dies one day and unless we can reinvent ourselves so someone else will pay us six figures we are doomed. That is not the companies job it is the workers job.
Greenspan sees turmoil similar to 1987: report
Friday September 7, 8:25 am ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the current market turmoil is “identical” in many ways to that which occurred in 1987 and 1998, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Friday.
“The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987,” Greenspan was quoted by the newspaper as saying.
He made the comment on Thursday at an event in Washington organized by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, an academic journal, the report said.
Greenspan, now a consultant but who was Fed chairman from 1987 to 2005, said business expansions are driven by euphoria and contractions by fear, the report said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070907/greenspan_market.html?.v=6
Just for fun, here is the training hours required for the following jobs. Notice Real Estate Broker is 48 hours, WHOPPEEE
Doctor: 6840 hours
Astronaut: 6760
CPA 5980
Dentist 4840
Psychologist 4320
Veterinarian 3840
Chiropractor 3840
Architect 3840
Lawyer 3360
Archaeologist 2880
Pilot 2560
Plumber 2080
Stockbroker 1920
Hair stylist 1500
Chef 1500
Electrician 1425
Teacher 1360
Police Officer 1120
Esthetician 600
Real estate agent 48
In terms of forclosures, my husband and I talked to man the other day that provides status’ to banks on properties up for foreclosure. (for instance, has the home been labeled as “winterized” to preserve it from damage, making sure no one has further damaged the property or broken in)He works in the Mercer county area and said he has 350 homes on his list. He feels it is impossible to get to all of them in a timely matter.
Richie Says: September 7th, 2007 at 9:59 am
HAPPY BIRTHDAY GRIM
R: 30?
Yes, I believe the big JB hit his 3-0 today.
Foxtons Real Estate Broker Wanted Ad
Location:
US-NY-Flushing
$35k Base salary/Car/Laptop/Cell phone/401k/health/dental
Employee Type:
Full-Time Employee
Industry:
Real Estate – Property Mgt
Sales – Marketing
Manages Others:
No
Job Type:
Real Estate
Sales
Req’d Education:
None
Req’d Experience:
Not Specified
Req’d Travel:
Up to 50%
Relocation Covered:
No
Wow lots of qualifications needed!! Just perfect to handle a million dollar deal.
duke #82
I agree with you, but this is linked to a bigger issue. The current philosophy in economics is that you must have market growth. But why? is it impossible to have a stable productive market that is based on maintaining a positive economic condition. I am not a economist. but i believe that it is and some economist somewhere has probably propose the idea. The problem would most likely be that you will not make nearly as much money and that is currently unacceptable.
oh and the obligatory (duke sucks) :)
Wow, so my plumber has more training then a stock broker???? i would then suggest we go to fully automates stock markets immediately; or get the plumbers on the stock floor
Pilot 2560
Plumber 2080
Stockbroker 1920
Hair stylist 1500
Good morning dried friskie eating bunch.
hehehehehehe
It’s going to get worse here but not as bad as Fl.Extreme carnage in sunshine state.Poking around the rubble down there.
It really $#cks grubbing grubbers. Admit it.
#89 kettle1
I guess so. But I sure hate to fall into the “it’s just a big ponzi scheme” crowd. (Who knows, maybe humans will actually start to colonize Mars and beyond and we can then expand forever.) As a pratical matter for now, I’m just renting and watching for the first real clues as to whether we are in for a bout of deflation, inflation, or stagflation, and to what degree. Seems like somebody thru the usual deck of tell cards into the air and they haven’t all landed yet….and the ones that have conflict to a degree (aside from housing, that is).
# Bubble Disciple, you said:
September 7th, 2007 at 11:57 am
also, think back to how inflation affected mortgage rates in the 70s and 80s. If this happens again, housing prices will fall proportionately.
bubble,
One of my relatives bought a house in 1978 with 6 months of lead time to the closing.
In-between, mortgage rates soared from 8% to 13% – but prices increased as well. People were in a big rush to get mortgages locked down before rates went any higher. By the time they got to the closing, his seller wanted more money, too – another $500 – and he almost walked away. He laughs about it now.
If people perceive that rates are rising and are going to go even higher, that can set off a surge in home buying. Rising rates can push people off the fence.
So it’s not necessarily such a clear equation – that rising rates equal a drop in prices.
#92 Duke
I pretty much agree with you. In the really big picture i think that we are seeing a lot of turmoil and uncertainty throughout the world as the entire planet tries to come to terms with the effects of globalization. In 15 – 20 years i think that the early 90’s to the first 2 decades of the 2000’s will be seen as a transition period where power structures and markets adapted to being open to global markets and communication.
example of carnage in Fl. some well located property selling for 150K just 1 1/2 ago now asking 30K. 5 years ago it was about 20k.
bank owned now…………
hehehehhehehe
Any commish last month?
Take a deep breath friskie bunch. it will get better…….yeah in about 2-3 year.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Bob
I forget to link to this post on Seeking Alpha this morning; some of you may find it very interesting or very annoying:
Adjusted Case Schiller Housing Data
“Housing may become reminiscent of tech stocks where few of tech’s former high-fliers (even if they’re quite profitable today) have seen their stock prices return to tech boom levels.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/46638-adjusted-case-schiller-housing-data
want more commish friskie eating bunch?
here’s a idea. Push dowen house prices to affordable levels. like magic buyers will come out of nowhere.
Comprende?
#95 read: it will get better…….yeah in about 2-3 year. Nah maybe in about 5 to 7 years, after prices finish dropping,alot more.
I am glad that doctors are at the top of the list.
But to be fair to RE Brokers, you need to have been in the business full time for 3 years I think before being able to take the training course.
#85
those are interesting numbers, but they seem a bit arbitrary. I’m sure I spend more than 3300 hrs “training” during my first year of law school alone
Does anyone have any links or organisations for Renter’s Rights?
I rent a house and the landlord has refused to fix a leaky garage.
dukeb Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
From a sociological perspective, what I find very scary is how people allow marketing and envy to lure them into a form of financial slavery.
duke: The person at my firm with the least responsibility, salary, and net worth….lives in the best town (although modest house), drives the nicest car, and has the most well appointed house.
The highest priority for this person is outward appearance.
Dukeb – Did you read this other interesting article from the same author of the Adjusted Case Schiller Housing Data study?
Negative Amortization and Interest Only: The Next Mortgage Bomb?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/46644-negative-amortization-and-interest-only-the-next-mortgage-bomb
#100 tbw: Though you might like an update on the condo market in RE.
The historic house condo has been slashed to 399K.
The other 2 beds, have been cut from 689K to 624K, the 3 beds have been cut form 713K to 684k
Finally the penthouse condo has been “slashed” from 1. 3 million to 1,095.
stuw #67,
I took a walk around the parking lot of a printing plant where I worked yesterday.
What, you didn’t run into any recruiters from WaMu?
Nope!
re: 104
I checked wiki for some joe-6 pack learning:
“Negative amortization loans can be high risk loans for inexperienced investors. These loans tend to be safer in a falling rate market and riskier in a rising rate market.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_amortization
so a rate cut would equal a wise bet, not a bailout?
READ MY LIPS: CUT YOUR GRUBBING HOUSE PRICES FAST Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
want more commish friskie eating bunch?
here’s a idea. Push dowen house prices to affordable levels. like magic buyers will come out of nowhere.
Comprende?
i read your lips and advised my friskie eating comrades to do the same. we definitely want more commish. thanks for the great idea. we have all agreed to push down house prices to affordable levels so that buyers will come out of nowhere like magic.
let us know how much you can afford so we know how to proceed ;)
READ MY LIPS #97,
Push dowen house prices to affordable levels. like magic buyers will come out of nowhere.
Is it just me or did you just endorse the “there are buyers on the sidelines” position?
I’ve never been approached by a recruiter in a parking lot. Must be the BO.
*ROFLMAO*
#103
I agree that the stuff people have is a pretty poor indication of wealth/income. Likewise for job title/description. I am 29 and I know as many people my age whose parents still pay some or most of their bills as those who do not (interestingly, the ones who are independent are generally much more successful). I wondered for a long time how some of these people managed to do X or live in Y given some of their jobs, but as the years go by it seems clear that there’s no other explanation than parental support.
skeptic #103,
I’ve noticed the same. They’re “living life to the fullest” while I pay down my damn mortgage on a depreciating pos condo.
John –
wait a sec…
$35k Base salary/Car/Laptop/Cell phone/401k/health/dental
Car/Laptop/Cell phone???!!
not a bad deal =)
#110 sync: Is it just me or did you just endorse the “there are buyers on the sidelines” position?
Yes,….bi
doh! From your favorite meltdown man.
[edit]
In the past half-dozen years, the major brokerages in New York added hundreds of thousands of jobs in three areas: mortgage-bond sales and trading, private equity, and prime brokerage (the management of hedge funds’ brokerage accounts). Each has grown by leaps and bounds each year. Now all three are frozen. There are no mortgages to package and sell and no clients who want them. The private-equity deals are all hung. And the way I see it, the hedge-fund business is liable to be cut in half by the chain of mismarking and redemptions. I think that many of these firms have as many as 30 percent more people than they need right now in these departments, and all of them will be cashiered by the end of the year. The lists are being drawn up; the HR people notified. Not too close to the holidays, please! And for those who are left, sorry, no bonuses. The money was all eaten up by severances. Unlike other times on Wall Street, the jobs will dry up across the board, because so many firms have beefed up the same divisions. This time, get laid off at Bear, no walking across the street to Lehman. The departed will be cut off from billions in disposable income that fuel the New York economy.
[edit]
Thousands of miles from where the walls began tumbling down, New York, the town where the architects of card houses live, will soon feel the full force of the storm. So much of our economy depends on these financial builders and their minions who buy and sell the products that the pain may actually end up being felt worse here than in the epicenters of the problem. You just don’t know it or feel it yet. It’s all happened too fast, in just a few weeks of another sweltering summer, with the worst, much worse, yet to come. Which is why I bet that in the time it took for you to read this article, the Tom Joad effect just took another few bucks out of your pocket. Get ready, many more dollars will soon vanish before you discover you’ve been robbed.
James J. Cramer is co-founder of TheStreet.com. He often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns and articles, both before and after they are published, and the positions he takes may change at any time.
Bi’s eternal optimism that a quarter point rate cut and fed bail out reminds me about this story of a really optimistic kid who falls face first into horse manure stands up and says.
“Gee there must be a pony here somewhere”
Hey JB Happy Birthday, any way we could get a demographic survey going on here? Seeing you’re turning 30 and skeptic is 29, I’m 29 too, got me wondering what the age demo is on this board. I’d also be interested in towns people live in, or at least counties.
That article gave me goosebumps. When I read the last sentence about finding out I’ve been robbed, I found myself reflexively reaching out to my azz to make sure my wallet is still there. It is. But it’s empty!
To #102
Please click on this link to view your rights as a Renter here in this lovely State of New Jersey.
http://www.hud.gov/local/nj/renting/tenantrights.cfm
I AM expecting to see WAMU representative in the parking lot of my job between Oct 15- Oct 30th
29
Morris county
Prestigious minutes from NYC, Bergen County.
38
morris
28
Union County, soon to be Somerset County.
40 (ouch)
Essex, diverse South Orange
29
Westwood
I guess I’m the grandpa here. ;)
#104 stuw6. / No, I didn’t see that link…thanks for posting it. I think he’s right, the negative amortization bucket might be a very scary thing to dump over our heads in due time.
32
Morris County
35
Essex County
29
Fairfield County, CT
re #120
Thank You. But aren’t there places you can call to explain your situation and find out your rights?
42 (Double ouch)
Middlesex for now
#77 kettle1: Amen.
#82 dukeb: “in vino veritas”
55[+]-“gramps”- Harr.Pk Bergen
ahem…. 40 something.
37 Clifton
36
Montaxclair, in wonderfully corrupt Essex county where we are so proud of our diversity that we cleverly erect a hockey arena in Newark!
57 Hudson
31
Male
Married
Enjoys fine wines, rare cheeses, and long walks on the beach.
I’m not much into health food, I am into champagne.
what is this? aol?
a/s/l
33, Pequannock (Morris)
54 Brigadoon, Union County
80:
That’s not an example of how government bailouts work; just an example of how Republican government works.
38, Somerset County.
cs, 102 –
NJ produces a book, Truth in Renting.
Also-
NJ Department of Community Affairs
Office of Landlord-Tenant Informaton
Trenton. Fax 609 292 2839 (411 for number)
New Jersey Tenants Organization
389 Main Street
Hackensack, NJ
201 342 3775
44 (although sometimes mistaken for 43)
Westfield, Union County
Mishkin, what an idiot!
(Couldn’t resist.)
I like to say…
“Mishkin Impossible!”
jb #138,
LOL!
from Reuters:
LBO loan market recovery to take time: M.Stanley
Fri Sep 7, 2007 11:13AM EDT
By Ben Harding
BARCELONA, Spain (Reuters) – The situation in the leveraged loan market, where a huge pipeline of private equity buyout financing has been left stranded due to credit market turmoil, is unlikely to improve until next year, a Morgan Stanley banker said on Friday.
“I think this year is going to get worse before it gets better,” Greig Morrish, a vice president at Morgan Stanley and a member of the credit team for the bank’s Senior Loans Group, told Reuters in an interview. “Not much is going to happen for the rest of the year.”
He said he estimated the global backlog at some $400-$500 billion, with up to 100 billion euros ($137 billion) of funding to shift in Europe and $300 billion in the United States.
“Central banks can only do so much to restore confidence. The banks will have to start lending again, opening warehouse lines, working through the pipeline. It’s going to take at least to the end of this year and realistically it’s not going to change until Q2 next year,” Morrish said on the sidelines of the Euromoney Leveraged Finance conference in Barcelona.
From Bloomberg:
Citigroup Unit Won’t Take New Mortgage Bank Clients
Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank, curtailed lending to mortgage companies, according to two people with knowledge of the decision.
The bank’s First Collateral Services unit won’t accept new clients for “warehouse” credit lines, which provide cash to mortgage banks so they can fund home purchases and refinancings, the people said. They declined to be identified because they don’t want to hurt relationships with New York-based Citigroup. First Collateral, based in Concord, California, still lends to existing customers, the people said.
Citigroup’s decision may make it harder for some home lenders to survive. More than 100 have sought buyers or halted operations since the start of 2006 as U.S. foreclosures climbed to a record in the second quarter. Loss of warehouse credit may have led to all of this year’s 15 bankruptcy filings, said Ronald Greenspan, senior managing director for FTI Consulting Inc., a Baltimore-based firm that advises creditors.
“Our decisions are based on our continued evaluation of the current and evolving market environment,” Citigroup said in an e-mailed statement that didn’t confirm the decision. Brad Knapp, listed as president of First Collateral on the unit’s Web site, didn’t return a call seeking comment.
First Collateral ranked fifth among warehouse lenders with $4 billion of commitments as of March 31, according to estimates by National Mortgage News. The biggest was Seattle-based Washington Mutual Inc., the newsletter said.
——————————————-
AntiTrump Says: #80
September 7th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
“…If anyone wants wants to know how govt bailouts work, please fly New Orleans and look around…”
—————————————-
Jamey Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 2:44 pm
#80:
“…That’s not an example of how government bailouts work; just an example of how Republican government works…”
——————————————–
Commanderbob comments:
Really Jamey ??————Last time that I checked, The moron mayor of new orleans and the equally inept governess of Louisianna were both democraps—and it didn’t help to have a city mostly BELOW SEA LEVEL–I would think that the FIRST point of concern of this ‘city’ was to make sure the surrounding dams that make this place livable were in proper condition———What are you gonna do now : Blame Bush for the hurricane??—-Might as well—-I usually go for the obvious: — ——–GOD and corrupt democraps—We in New Jersey are not the only ones to have these crooked political BUMS !—-(NOT GOD, of course)
commander bob nj,
About those surrounding ‘dams’ – they were not in good shape when Katrina hit, the Federal government shares culpability in that.
34, People’s Republic of Montclair, Essex County
Enjoys fine wines, rare cheeses, and long walks on the beach.
Sounds like a line out of Playboy mag. Happy Birthaday. Great Blog.
Take all the money Bush wasted on searching for nonexisting WMDs in Iraq and you could pay for the subprime bailout and rebuild New Orleans 3 times over.
Let’s try to keep this board non-partisan. I think we can all agree that most politicians, regardless of party, are complete morons.
Forget about democrats and republicans!
Word of the day:
kleptocrat |ˈkleptəˌkrat| noun a ruler who uses political power to steal his or her country’s resources.
ORIGIN 1960s: from Greek kleptēs ‘thief’ + -crat .
stuw6 #153,
Morons? Give them credit. They’re crooks, put in office by you and I. We’re the morons.
31
Morris county
syncmaster Says:(#150)
September 7th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
commander bob nj,
“..About those surrounding ‘dams’ – they were not in good shape when Katrina hit, the Federal government shares culpability in that..”
——————————————
Commanderbob replys:
Sure ‘Sync’, The ‘big-daddy’ in Washington D.C. should also look over all of us !!—Like maybe the 50+ homes in New Milford (Bergen) that got the flood ‘hit’ two months ago—–Most of them are only five to ten feet above high tide by the Hackensack River——You know the storm : the ‘Nor-easterner–These homes should have NEVER been built in a flood plain ! Even the historic von Steuben house in River Edge sustained some damage (built 1755[?])—–Do you think that Federal Government should have built Levees all along the river?
My point is that the local,County and/or State Governments bear the primary responsibility to either construct flood control measures to protect life and property (and MAINTAIN them) or not allow buildings to be built on sensitive lands at all———-Wayne, NJ is an excellent example of this ……’two-bit’1920 summer homes converted to year-round structures next to the river–flooded every few years—and now bought-out by the ‘FEDS’ ——–Paid for by All of US !!
James,My post #157 is awaiting moderation—I was ‘good’—I didn’t mention “GOD” in the same sentence with democrats..
come on now. you guys know too much about the last RE downturn. either you guys were a rare breed of teens and pre-teens who followed real estate rather than listening to milli vanilli in your discman, or you’re not that…ok, I got it. it’s a blog :)
Milli Vanilli? dude you just ‘dated’ yourself.
you too :)
btw, the Real Milli Vanilli is from Newark, NJ.
:) Eighties Ruled! 90’s were not too shabby either…..
54 (yikes)
Monmouth County, 6 short blocks from the Atlantic Ocean
38
Bergen County
I’m not into yoga, and I have half-a-brain
#152 Enjoys fine wines, rare cheeses, and long walks on the beach.
If he added he hopes for world peace, he could be in a beauty pageant. (just kidding JB, could not resist)
*40* Husband, Father, cyclist, snowboarder, avid guitarist….
Car enthusiast. Friend to little dogs. I live in ….yeah….you guessed it.
Grubber:
Some of my family members were trying to play in the last real estate bubble and burned pretty bad, so i remember some of the heated discussion i got to over hear, credit is also do to this blog, i have learned a lot by lurking here for over a year :>
#158 Some of us lived through it.
re 147
Low-level guy giving an interview? Surprising they would allow that.
35, Manhattan, but not for long. Just asked permission from landlord to put up a temporary wall, so that we can wait until the market goes down.
42 (Morris County)
CNBC is reporting that Countrywide will cut 12,000 jobs
Countrywide Plans to Cut
As Many as 12,000 Jobs
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
September 7, 2007 5:24 p.m.
Countrywide Financial Corp. is expected to announce plans to reduce its work force over the next three months by 10,000 to 12,000 jobs, representing as much as 20% of the current total.
The company is retrenching to focus on relatively conservative loans that it can hold as long-term investments in its savings bank unit or sell to government-backed investors Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The company also will aim to make loans that can be insured by the Federal Housing Administration.
The job cuts may be smaller if the market improves, company officials say.
37
Essex
I can tell we’re still a long way from the bottom because I was listening to Bloomberg Radio, and there was an ad for an “Real Estate Investing” course called “Flipping without Flopping”.
“Specially designed for the tri-state area!”
“Learn how I became a millionaire starting with no money or lousy credit”
30, going on 60 (middle-sex county)
Been too busy to comment the last few days, but just went to the NYT website and the word
RECESSION is huge at the top:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/07/business/07cnd-econ.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
The good news is that on the subway ride home, i print out the day’s conversation and laugh my ass off (usually at Booyah)
29
Plainsboro
35, Manhattan and Morris County.
Apple shares way down…where is all of that apple talk now????? Doh!
31 – Pway represent!
hate apple….pcs are worse…someone needs to innovate asap…that’s the stock i’ll buy
‘Apple shares way down…where is all of that apple talk now’
So, you’ll be shorting?
—Apple shares way down…where is all of that apple talk now????? Doh!—
Yes, Apple. What are they, up 100% the last twelve months, like 10x in the last couple years?
Yes, they seem like a good target.
Apple’s down because of the iphone sales drop and the fact that they discontinued one of the phones. Not a big deal. Apple will be fine.
It’s a buy and hold stock. Like hold it for a few years, reap the benefits.
36 / Morristown /
12,000 layoffs at Countrywide?
Countrywide to cut 12,000 jobs
Given that the season is over for this year why is gsmls inventory increasing?
Wonder if it is expired listings coming back on the market or possibly contracts that failed to go through.
#175 Hobokenite:
I heard that stupid flipping without flopping commercial on bloomberg radio too. You would think most of the people who bought that cool-aid must be living in homeless shelters now.
Why are these guys still wasting money on commercials.
Just pray to jebus Bush rescues us from this mess.
29 – bergen county
Imus (54)-
Who is the real fool there? The agent, or your friend who continues to employ her?
Imus (179)-
Please short AAPL.
Please.
Grim (138)-
What? You gave up urban biathalon?
Happy birthday, James!
Now, give us some damn graphs.
Grim (138)-
I think you can pick up some “rare cheese” at the Countrywide office down the street from me.
Something stinky’s coming out of there.
smegma?
The dirty secret exposed….
Middletown (as of July 24th) / 39
I’m off to Seattle…………
from the WSJ
Task Force Will Seek More Loan Revisions
By RUTH SIMON
September 8, 2007
Attorneys general and banking regulators from 10 states have formed a task force hoping to persuade mortgage-servicing companies and investors in mortgage-backed securities to increase the number of troubled subprime loans they restructure, to stem the tide of foreclosures.
The task force, headed by Iowa Attorney General Thomas Miller, has invited a dozen of the nation’s largest subprime-mortgage-servicing companies to meet later this month in Chicago. The group will ask servicers to find ways to modify more subprime loans instead of moving borrowers into foreclosure. The group also wants servicers to create more longer-term solutions for distressed borrowers, such as lowering the borrower’s mortgage interest rate, rather that creating a repayment plan that offers a temporary fix.
***
The working group plans to meet separately in October with investors who hold mortgage-backed securities, Mr. Miller said in an interview. The group was formed after a meeting in July that was attended by officials from roughly three-dozen states.
The task force also includes the attorneys general of California, Arizona, Texas, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado and Massachusetts, banking regulators from North Carolina and New York, and a representative from the Conference of State Banking Supervisors.
***
Well, it’s the pity party du jour. Politicians from top to bottom are trying to score points on this one. You know why attorneys general are called AGs (aspiring governors)
#175 Death thores perhaps? Would not read too much into that commercial IMO.
#187 Anti: this is the brief Fall market. People want to me in/out before the holidays.
47 Hudson county
from Tsalms
“twice blessed is he who drinketh from another man’s wine, for he shall have his own on the second day….”
Happy Birthday Grim!
now i know why i am so optimistic about re market in central jersey. my realtor friend send me all the sales this year at one townhouse community in central jersey. here is the list:
Closing Date bd LP SP DOM
08/31/07 3 $349K $333K 37
04/05/07 3 $342K $330K 86
05/01/07 2 $312K $305K 12
06/05/07 2 $310K $300K 15
07/12/07 2 $308K $298K 21
08/07/07 2 $270K $262K 286
contract D.
08/14/07 3 $340K ?
08/03/07 2 $290K
seems most were sold in 3 months. some are just in 2 weeks.
More update: the friend of mine who sold 10K over asking actually sold only in ONE day. he got 3 offers and finally set down at $630K, which is about the same price as in 2005.
Beware miracle cures
The Economist
Trust in the markets, not the politics
http://www.economist.com/opinion/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=9767665
WHERE there is crisis, there is opportunity. That is something politicians surveying the wreckage of the subprime-mortgage crash know only too well. With America’s Congress now back from its summer break, Democrats are scrambling to do something, anything, about the mess.
Ideas are already piling up on the doormat like so many bailiff’s letters: a rescue fund for borrowers, fines for unscrupulous lenders, federal regulation for state-supervised mortgage brokers and greater liability for buyers of mortgage-backed bonds. Wary of being outflanked, George Bush may extend mortgage insurance for some cash-strapped borrowers. Hearings starting this week are likely to lead to reams of further suggestions. Some will be helpful, but most will probably do more harm than good.
Nobody doubts things are bad out there. More than 2m homeowners face higher interest charges thanks to resets on adjustable-rate mortgages. Perhaps a quarter of them could lose their homes. Mortgage delinquencies have shaken global credit markets because yield-hungry investors piled into illiquid paper backed by risky loans. Banks far and wide are showing enduring signs of distress
So it is easy to see why the call for more regulation is tempting. But it is also easy to descend into caricature, portraying borrowers as victims of villainous banks, brokers, rating agencies and hedge funds. By one estimate, half of all subprime borrowers lied about their income (emphasis added, rent). Many chose to ignore the risk that house prices might fall. Heaping all the blame on Wall Street and its clients ignores the role of broader forces. Ultra-low interest rates and Asia’s savings glut provided much of the liquidity that inflated the bubble.
Of course, nobody could suppose that today’s regulation is fine just as it is. The failures in mortgages and the credit markets have revealed flaws. But two thoughts should stay the hands of over-eager reformers. Across the markets, self-correction is under way. Shares of the most egregious mortgage lenders have plunged and dozens have gone bust. Loan-underwriting standards are tighter. The riskiest subprime securities have almost no takers. These spasms are how the market cleans up its mistakes and learns not to repeat them. That sounds cold-hearted, but pain is a necessary part of this correction.
When politicians seek to deaden that pain and supplant those lessons with hasty fixes of their own, they almost always blunder. Look at the Sarbanes-Oxley act, pushed through Congress in the turbulent aftermath of Enron’s collapse. Although it was not all bad, the law placed a straitjacket on companies and their auditors which was so tight that it has since had to be loosened. And consider the proposal today, backed by Senator Charles Schumer, that a “suitability” standard be applied when a subprime loan is made. This may cut the risk of default, but it would also make it difficult for anyone with a blemish on his record to get a mortgage. Surely the legislators do not mean to heap still more pain on to the poor?
Slowly does it
Rather than rushing into a bail-out of housing, politicians should give the financial authorities time to lean on the market. The government has a lousy record of doling out money in crises (think of the mess it has made in New Orleans). State-led rescues are fraught with moral hazard: what investor wouldn’t take on that “liar loan”, knowing that the taxpayer is ready to jump in and help when it all goes wrong? Money should go first, and perhaps only, to those who can show they were defrauded or deceived. Encouragingly, American banking regulators this week issued guidance that should coax lenders to restructure bad debts, in part by offering to take a sympathetic view of the accounting hits that follow. Time, too, is the essential ingredient in reforming the capital markets, especially the conduct of the rating agencies, the whipping boys of the crisis right now (see article).
Above all, if legislators want to avoid unintended consequences, they should prefer information to regulation. Brokers who are getting three times the normal commission rate for selling an exotic subprime product should have to disclose that. They should also be made to spell out the terms of interest-rate resets more clearly to borrowers. And other financial markets might be less prone to catching mortgage flu if the off-balance-sheet “conduits” that buy wads of asset-backed securities had to reveal more about their exposures.
Politicians say they want to help. What the financial system needs just now is the rarest of political virtues: self-restraint.
‘now i know why i am so optimistic’
That can’t be why, since you didn’t have the information until now. You are optimistic for quite another reason.
Chifi, say hi to Kim Thayil in Seattle from my side if you meet him……
Not many know his parents are from India. He is a pioneer of sorts to go into grunge instead of becoming a physician :)
40..and from the next town over from lovely “westfield”!!!
Am a TRUE JerseyGirl… wont take me out of this state …unless I go broke of course, and that is very easy to do in lovely JERSEY!!!
#202 Central Jersey hmmm, looks like Brigadoon is expanding.
At the end of 2001, the year the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to 1.75% from 6.5%, Countrywide had fewer than 18,000 employees on its payrolls. By the end of 2006, that number had tripled, to nearly 55,000.
Wonder what’s with all the dump trucks for sale in Hoboken:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/search/car?query=%22dump+truck%22+hoboken&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max&addTwo=
All in one day no less.
1/7th of all dump trucks listed no less.
re 142
Thanks Lisoosh
44, Bucks Co. Pa., and durn proud of the posters on this site.
dreamtheaterr Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 9:16 pm
Chifi, say hi to Kim Thayil in Seattle from my side if you meet him…… Not many know his parents are from India.
yan: hopefully, I will not fall on black days….I’m going to attempt to relive Singles….”Linda Powell: I think that, a) you have an act, and that, b) not having an act is your act.”
#210 Pat, so true. It’s been such an education just hanging around this blog. The amazing part has been the selfless sharing of ideas by so many with absolutely no ulterior motives.
JB, well done on a f’in fantabulous job with this blog. And happy birthday!
I can’t believe these guys broke up…..what a complete waste……uh..this kicks serious sub-prime loans….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i89rLvjnCFg&mode=related&search=
34, New Brunswick. Trying to save pennies for a rainy day.
Can someone shed some light on MLS#: 2432267?
It’s no longer on gsmls.
John writes:
John, you must be aware by now that realtors provide an invaluable “marketing strategy” to sell your home and skim 6%.
I tossed these ideas out several weeks ago. They still seem fresh to me
As many people know it has not been the best of times lately in the Bond and Real Estate Markets. In an effort to help people and companies that have been hurt by the real estate and bond market crisis I put together some ideas of some things that could be done to help stabilize the Real Estate and Bond Markets. I’m sure minds more creative than mine can come up with better ideas but her are my proposals that might help to stabilize the markets by perhaps putting a bottom in or slow the pace home price declines.
Proposal
1. Tax credit for anyone who purchased or refinanced a home a home between 2004 and March of 2007. The credit would be based on the purchase price of the home and be more heavily weighted towards lower priced homes.
2. A tax credit to lenders in exchange for an 1 year freeze on adjustable rate loan increases. The credit would be based on a percentage of funds lost due to payments not adjusting
3. An immediate ban on mortgage pre payment penalties retroactive to 2004
4. A tax credit for anyone who buys a home in the next 18 months. Again this would be based on the purchase price of the home weighted towards lower priced homes
5. Tax credit to Freddie and Fannie for any refinances they complete of mortgage that were originate for loans made between 2003 and March 2007. An additional credit could be made for refinancing a delinquent mortgage.
Possible Funding Sources.
1. Excess profit taxes on companies who have benefited on the war in Iraq ( Defense contractors such as Halliburton)
2. Partial withdraw of forces from Iraq with funds earmark for Iraq sent to fund this program.
3. Excess profit tax on private equity Funds such as Blackstone taxing at normal corporate tax rates.
4.Taxes on Wall street firms who originated MBS pools.
5. Excess profit tax on oil companies.
6. Make Saudi Arabia pay for the defense that our military provides.
7. Temporary Federal Tax on all MBS pool related trades including CDO’s and ABX’S
States could also get into this by providing subsidies at local levels by declaring temporary tax credits to people hurt by the events here.
These proposals clearly would not solve all problems but it would perhaps help to put a floor on the problems facing the credit markets and also help the consumers that have been directly hurt by this crisis.
It would be nice to see our potential leaders and current legislators address or at least try to help people who have been hurt financially by this crisis
Now….he’s gone…..too far:
CAIRO, Egypt – In a new video released ahead of the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, Osama bin Laden made no overt threats but lectured Americans on the Iraq war and criticized global capitalism, calling its leaders the real terrorists.
NYC Dweller
MLS # 2432267 – 26 Beekman -summit
Under Contract 9/5
Prior sales:
Sold 6/8/07 1,345,000
Sold 3/12/2006 1,030,000
KL
Correction ** Sold 3/12/2003** 1,030,000
Sorry – typo
“Notice Real Estate Broker is 48 hours,”
Hookers have to train longer!
Hookers offer a more valuable service.
From the Record:
Cat squalor voids sale of house
The restaurateur who bought a Saddle River home just days before 150 cats were found to be living there in filth will be allowed to back out of the sale, a Superior Court judge ruled Friday.
Michael Acciardi, 47, agreed to pay $2.6 million for the 20-room house on Burning Hollow Road at a sheriff’s sale on Aug. 10. Four days later, authorities acting on a tip from a DHL courier rescued the first of the cats — and six dogs — that were found roaming the interior of the house, which was strewn with pet food and animal feces.
…
Presiding Chancery Court Judge Peter E. Doyne agreed, citing a report from a Union City claims adjuster that estimated the total repair bill at $2.25 million. Doyne approved Acciardi’s petition to be relieved from his obligation to buy the house.
Acciardi said the bank wanted to keep his security money of $420,000 for the $2.6 million sale. Instead, he said, it has to give him his money back within five days.
…
“I’m pretty well versed at buying and selling homes. … but this was a case of total surprise and shock. It’s somewhat of a lesson. Hopefully people can learn from the mistake that I’ve made.”
Un (216)-
How many houses did you sell last month?
The NJ requirement for real estate brokers is 225 hours.
BTW, the course work- which is a thorough review of NJ real estate statute, plus several related topics (1031 exchanges, office management, etc)- could actually be done a lot faster.
State licensure courses can’t, and shouldn’t, cover more than statute. So, what else should be covered to bring the amount of required hours up to a more impressive level?
The real problem in NJ is not the licensure requirement. Both the salesperson and broker classes have about a 60% failure rate. The problem is an almost-total lack of required continuing education.
Essex (222)-
Judging from the quality of your posts, I think you’d fall into the 60% fail group for brokers’ licensing.
How’s the Milkbone?
MO (217)-
Please divulge just exactly what it is that you’re smoking.
I want some.
Realtor/sales 75 hours= 75 hrs more than mortgage broker
Real Estate Broker= 3years full time 150 hours.
Typical time btwn starting job and recieving pay= 6months. That is 6 months of training.
Where did the 48hours come from?
KL
Read the moving banner on this one. Seller’s VERY motivated. I guess keeping up with the Jones’ finally caught up. I’ll give them 625K to take it off their hands.
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1083257374
Hey Clot, thx for the vote of confidence. Whew. Glad my self-esteem isn’t determined by random dooshbags on the net.
#217 MO: Lets thorw in that once all is done these people are back on their feet and sell their houses at some point down the road, 50% of the profit that they might make on the sale of their house goes to the government.
So now we can socialize losses and gains
36 Hoboken
now i know why i am so optimistic about re market in central jersey. my realtor friend send me all the sales this year at one townhouse community in central jersey.
Which townhouse community in central jerz?
Informal Survey:
Which scenario is more likely in the coming months:
a) Inflation
b) Deflation
c) Stagflation
d) More Goldilocks
Also, I’ve read that TIPS are a good investment in inflationary times and Strips in deflationary. I’ve tried to find a zero coupon etf and saw that Vanguard has applied for approval of one, but does anybody know if there is another that exists?
31
Male
Union county
(Moving back to Essex this month)
HEHE/others,
Is TIPS calibrated to cancel out headline inflation number or core inflation?
That’s a good question for which I don’t have an answer. That core inflation number is bs.
HEHE,
Agree, core inflation is complete bs. Let me know if you find out.
wow am i late to the party!
41, bergen county (for now.)
REALLY REALLY OFF TOPIC:
I haven’t been here much as I’ve been dealing with an ill parent. Even for a medical professional it’s been an unbelievably frightening education.
For elderly folks in Florida? Beware your health insurance — especially if it’s a Medicare HMO.
I don’t know how non-medical folks grasp what happens to their sick elderly family members.
(back to your usual programming schedule, already in progress…)
sl
48 hours is the training time for a realtor in Calif., my favorite bubble state!!!!
FYI There was ZERO, I repeat ZERO money lost on real estate. You can’t just go giving money to dopes who overpaid as you will cause crazy inflation by pumping such excess money into the economy.
For instance my neighbor sold his pos split fall of 2005 for 620K. He only paid 60K in 1978. He took his 620K bought a 400k house in SC, paid realtor fees, moving fees and bought all new furniture for new house. That house is now worth maybe 550K tops, are we supposed to give that new couple cash cause their house fell 70K, but hey they sold a pos cape for 520k to buy that pos split to some even younger couple and that cape is now worth 450K do they also get 70K, but hey what about the one bedroom coop that couple who bought the cape sold? Everyone played musical chairs in Spring 2003-to the fall of 2006, 3.5 years of frenzy. Since the average person only lives in his house for seven years that means we have to only give money to half the homeowners in the USA. The whole Bush plan is smoke and mirrors.
#202
Your stats are fairly meaningless until you tell us which town you are referring to.
How can I get comps for my town without signing up with a realtor? We have been saving up to buy and had planned to wait it out, but my landlord just offered to sell us our apartment. I really like this place, and if we could get it at a fair price, that would be awesome. I actually have not been paying that much attention to prices in the last year and need a starting point to figure out if what he is asking is fair.
On the other hand, he is in the middle of several building projects and is pretty clear that he needs the money. I think prices still will come down, but we are happy here and I don’t see us moving out if we do end up buying it.
Anyhow, any pointers to where we could get comps?
Today’s NY Times metro section has an article on how agencies that are helping people facing foreclosures are swamped with requests.
#243
Katinka,
Check the local county property tax records and it’ll give you more than enough data to do a full blown quantitative analysis on the subject. The data is a couple months stale, but good enough if you keep the time lag in mind.
ok, how do I do that? I can get to Morris County Tax Boards site, and am familiar with searching for specific properties by address or name, but how do I do it for town by bedrooms or whatever?
thanks so much!
Thanks rhymingrealtor!
katinka:
You can search tax records for most counties on http://www.njactb.org/.
go to record search.
Katinka
What town are you talking about?
Katinka,
I just saw it is in morris county – ask james to give you my email.
KL
Katinka,
Just pull all the records for sales done in the last 3 years into Excel and filter out all the data that you don’t need. You’ll get a couple thousand data points…enough to give you statistically significant results.
I live in Morristown.
#251
I think what katinka is getting at is that those tax records have no way of providing comp information. I.e., he/she can search by # bedrooms, amenities, etc…
I think katinka’s best bet is to hook up with someone with mls access. looks like rhymingrealtor is offering to help.
I may be able to help as well, if jb can send my email to him/her.
I use zillow and domania for comps.
Let’s try that again. I use zillow.com and domania.com for comps. They may not be the best sources but they do have sales histories and the abilities to search in the areas you’re looking in.
If only my brain would catch up with my body today.
Looking for comps? Just ask here.
jb
Or if you don’t want to ask in a public forum, just email me.
jb
Another place to get comps is propertyshark.com. You can get records for 6 addresses per day.
And, there’s also datauniverse.com, though I don’t know if it covers your area.
Guys, I wanted to find out your opinion about a condo that we are thinking of buying. its in the society hill phase 1 in jersey city. The condo is pretty clean 2 BR. What do you think should be a fair price ? And is the are safe ?
Katinka (243)-
Why not just meet a good agent, act like you’re a “for real” buyer, bleed info out of him, then sh*it on his head?
After all, we’re such bad people, we deserve it…right?
259 njgirl
Besides the area outside of the gated community being terrible, I had heard stories about the stench of the water there. One friend of mine swears the place is sinking. I looked at a lot of townhomes in there and after smelling what I smelled and seeing some things that may suggest my friend might be right, we opted not to buy there. And besides, they are asking way too much money. But don’t just take my word for it, go around the neigborhood (outside the gate) and see what you think. Are you going to take the train? Check out the area where the station is. Walk around the gated community. Look at the whole picture, not just the condo. Then decide if its for you.
For property sales where you can search by street address:
From NJ.com (Star Ledger and other papers)
http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers/
Katrinka,
Also the Courier News database. This one is better:
http://www.c-n.com/specialsections/datauniverse/
Also, House Front:
http://www.housefront.com/
booooooooooooooyaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Franklin voters to decide Ritchie’s fate Tuesday
The recall effort accused Ritchie of secretly meeting with developer Jack Morris in December 2005 on a 684-unit housing development that would satisfy the township’s state requirement with the state Council on Affordable Housing.
Ritchie said the meeting was to decrease the density of the project, which she claimed was inevitable, despite outcry from township residents who feared the new development, and accompanying Home Depot, would increase traffic and be a burden to the school district.
http://www.c-n.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070909/NEWS01/709090321/1006
I wonder whether NIMBY movement is starting to effect political outcomes or is it truely correct opposition.
After all, we’re such bad people, we deserve it…right?
________________________________
Realtors are ‘OK’ but on the sales food chain…(a field I spent 10 plus years in) they rank somewhere around car sales people. Not that a good car sales person is somehow inferior mind you…just hard to find. We talked with several realtors. One told us (in 2002) “be ready for a bidding war for any property that you find”. I simply said….”I won’t do a bidding war” (knowing that I had not the resources to win one and being honest)–to which she said…”well, you never get a house around here then….of course, thankfully, she was wrong”.
267 Essex
You should have invited her to your housewarming.
Scribe [263],
That Courier News database is powerful. I’ve been using the Star Ledger’s, among others, but this one provides more info over a longer time frame.
That’s what I like about this site. I’ve discovered so many tricks that help educate me as a buyer and make the valuation process more transparent. I shudder to think what I might have paid 3 or 4 years ago before the internet and Grim took the power of information from RE agents and industry and put them into the hands (computers) of the buyers.
Essex [267],
The bidding wars were already in force in 2002?
Wow. I’d forgotten. Now I know why I sat out the market then. The froth was already starting to churn. Although I suppose one could argue that any 2002 purchase, bidding war or not, overpaying or not, would still be above water in 2007.
No milkbones here, “whew”.
SG 266 –
Part of a pi$$ing match between local polititians and developers.
Franklin has lots of affordable housing and most public opposition to the project isn’t about the housing (though some repubs are pushing the tax/school issue).
The big red flag with the project is the Home Depot/big box stores complex. The development is slated for a small country road on one side and Route 27 on the other and surrounded by residential and protected open space – there is no highway access and traffic is already overloaded at that location. Plus there are 2 Home Depots within 4 miles, probably 6-7 within 10 miles.
The suggested development simply makes no sense. Franklin isn’t known for NIMBY. It is pretty diverse, both racially and economically and has lots of commercial and industrial districts.
Essex etal,
New Investor, James Bednar & myself all offered to get comps for katrinka, can we layoff the all realtors are __________.
Thanks
KL
I can do that.
Bidding wars in 2002? Uh… We were involved in two bidding wars in late 2000 and early 2001. As early as 2000 saw us standing in line at open houses while the realtor was telling people on the way out to give your highest bid and if you “win”, the house will go into attorney review that week.
(yikes) 49
Monmouth
Skywatcher
Espresso addict
Beach lover
Huge fan of NJrereport
Happy Belated Birthday JB!
You’re still a kid :)
Belmar Redeveloper Blues
http://starnewsgroup.com/weekly/2007/09.06.07/redeveloper__09.06.07_65907.html
Same for one Asbury developer (no link-verbal from realtor)
Yeah Gary, we were in Chicago before NJ about 1998, we were seeing that type of rush. People would bring checkbooks to open houses. It was pure insanity. That type of frenzy was in full bloom by the time we bought.
GSMLS had gone up from about 35100 listings to about 35500+ in a couple of days.
Hi JB/KL,
Could you give me the address of GSMLS# 2439290
Thx,
AT
re: realtor bashing
I’ve worked with good realtors and bad, just like any other profession. I don’t see much point in bashing them here as there are several on the board that have provided me with insight and information. I know they’re a tempting punching bag, but I think it is counterproductive. There are a lot more constructive ideas to share.
Let’s put it this way, and I am not bashing here, but it is shakeout time. Any realtor that makes it through this period — is going to have to really work hard. I know one woman who seems to mine a patch locally — she is the ‘one’ to list with if you want to sell a place and I know she has sold a couple in this area in the last couple of months. She works a base. And seems to work it pretty well. The ace in the hole is having a specific population that wants to live in an area….at least that keeps our home value up and the sales coming even in this downturn. It doesn’t bode too well for diversity, but it makes the neighborhood saleable. My jabs are only reserved for those who overgeneralize and assume something about anon. posters on web sites.
Hi guys,
Can anybody provide sell info for this one:
NJMLS# 2725189
3-42 Grunauer Pl., Fairlawn
I’ve been reading this blog daily (since it was called the NJ Bubble Blog) and figured I’d forward my demographic information.
32/M/Astoria/Renter/Downpayment presently yielding @ 5.05% (risk-free)
BS – Mechanical Engineering
MBA – Finance and Investments
Thought this was fairly bearish news, from someone who has some financial acumen.
http://tinyurl.com/2hpwbn
My own take on the recent real estate phenomenon is that while I do feel somewhat cheated out of having to delay homeownership, in the words of one of my mentors, “Life is a marathon, not a sprint. Take it one step at a time.”
Enjoy NFL Week 1….
Financial Cents:
Why would I listen to Bloomberg when I get all the Kool-aid I need from the Cheif *Economist* at the NAR?
#280 – Anti
18 1ST ST, New Providence
LP: 669,000
Days On Market: 12
Taxes: 9207
I having a feeling that the next week will be a rough one for the stock market…
(I meant this week)
Bubble:
Banks face 10-day debt timebomb
By Iain Dey, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 12:47am BST 09/09/2007
Britain’s biggest banks could be forced to cough up as much as £70bn over the next 10 days, as the credit crisis that has seized the global financial system sparks a fresh wave of chaos.
Almost 20 per cent of the short-term money market loans issued by European banks are due to mature between September 11 and September 19. Senior bankers fear that they will have to refinance almost all of these debts with funds from their own coffers, putting a further strain on bank balance sheets.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/09/cndebt109.xml
We got Pedro and Mangenius versus Evil Bill, and I am going to spend the next 3 hours with Skip Liddell learning about Successful Techniques in Long-Term Care Planning.
Boooooooooyaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
For the record……Seattle is NICE!
Granted……it is sunny and 75 degrees, so my perspective is skewed. If I visited in about a month, I would have a different opion. Kind of like visiting Chicago around Labor Day….
Anybody know of a customizable online real estate search tool for the n/e NJ area?
I’d like to find something that will allow me to filter the results for modern, mid-century modern, etc., style houses by keywood (even though there are less words on a $1m housing listing than a $1 ebay collectable!). The only thing I ever found to come close for this area is Coldwell’s tool, but that seems to only show their own listings.
As an alternative, even something that would let me specify for only new listings within the past 7-days, 14-days, etc.. by town, county, or state–being NJ again–would be helpful.
Thanks in advance.
Yeah, Seattle is pretty nice.
Although my impression was tainted by watching a drunken bum sleeping against a building near the pike-place market roll over and puke right around lunchtime.
Cool place though. Did you re-enact “singles” as planned?
#292
Unfortunately, I don’t know of a website that offers that capability. However, the MLS does offer that kind of browsing, so unfortunately it may be best to contact a realtor for something like that.
They can create customized searches for you exactly as you described, and send you weekly “hotsheet” listings if you desire. I know it would be preferable for you to do all of this yourself, but the limited-access MLS database is the most powerful tool for these activities.
kl (273)-
You’re deluding yourself to think that the renegade element here would do as much as pi$$ on you if you were laying in the middle of the road, on fire. Being compared to a hooker by anonymous punks on the internet is not my idea of the level of discourse that comes from someone I’d care to interact with, either personally or professionally.
I also find it curious that I’ve never seen a Realtor who posts here denigrate other people’s lines of work. Personally, I believe working well at anything that’s legal and ethical is an admirable pursuit. It’s doubly disingenuous when someone in another field of sales points fingers at Realtors, as though our line of sales is somehow a roll in the muck, while their line of sales is somehow superior. Selling is selling…period. Any good salesperson always walks the tightrope between his own best interests and those of clients; that’s the nature of the business. The salespeople who are good figure out the client always comes first, and those are the ones who survive. To indict Realtors simply because we must wrestle with our own self-interest does not, in and of itself, make the profession sleazy or dishonest.
Most of the posters here seem to be good folks and readily understand that: a) not all Realtors are bloodsucking crooks, and b) a good Realtor can can actually save you some time and money. I’ve tossed my share of free advice, comps and second opinions to several posters here and have been happy to do so. However, the shots taken here at the profession seem to be more gratuitous as time passes.
Buyers and sellers took the market up, and now buyers and sellers are taking it down. Many folks here were prescient enough to read the signs of collapse and are about to do very well for themselves. To take shots at the same people who are going to help you- by shoving some very low, painful offers down sellers’ throats- in months to come? It comes off as classless and gloating.
ChiFi (291)-
Black hole sun, won’t you come, and wash away the rain?
Check out the Dahlia Lounge yet?
Clod, that was a pretty harmless joke…you chose to personalize it…and obviously have taken some of it to heart. My goal was not to make you or anyone feel bad. It was a harmless one liner.
#296 Clot: you help and advice is always appreciated.
I was anti-Realtor at first, but you opened my eyes to the fact that there are good one available (although the search may be hard).
The bashing is just immature, and has no place in the discussion.
Thanks again.
sx (297)-
Thanks. I didn’t mean to necessarily single you out; nor do I think that I- or any Realtor- should be exempt from examination and criticism when we fall short. I certainly take plenty of shots at people here, and I have a thick enough skin to handle the rough trade that comes in return.
The exception I take is that blanket indictments of the RE profession do not advance the conversation here. The real influences on market dynamics are complex, and require us to come to better conclusions than merely stating that the whole game is controlled by a cabal of stupid and larcenous intermeidators. Were that truly the case, then the public IS an ass…and, following from that, blogs such as this one would not exist.
Clot, you’re a dork.
Oh, wait. Before anybody jumps all over me:
;)
Marito-
OLP is 399,000>389,000>374,900 Tax record indicates bought in 83 but not sure of sale price may have been 75,500 but that may have been mortgage amount.
KL
Heading off to Omaha on Tuesday. Anyone ever been?
jb
Yep…nice town. A big hill looks over part of it….clean air…the plains.
#286 Thanks New Investor.
Debated moving there when I worked for Gallup. Never been there but the plains are not as bad as people make them out to be. Enjoy the steak!
U can probably get a palace out there in Omaha for $150k…………Seriously.
Clotpoll (295)
I realize I am a newbie, but stop being so sensitive. You are in the top 5th percentile in terms of intelligence and experience. No one with a rational mind questions your “professional-ness”.
Grim (303)-
Nicer than you’d expect. Great steak. Large portions.
Buffett’s no dope. It must be a good place to live.
Cents (308)-
Probably so, but sometimes the gratuitous potshots set me off.
James Bednar Says:
September 9th, 2007 at 7:10 pm
“..Heading off to Omaha on Tuesday. Anyone ever been?..”
———————————————-
Essex Says:
September 9th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
“…U can probably get a palace out there in Omaha for $150k…………Seriously…”
=============================================-
Commanderbob Sez: You are pretty close on that price, Essex. There are many houses there in that $150k range. One of my ‘kids’,a US Air Force Officer [Major]–moved (stationed) there in early 2006. He bought a house in Papillion, next to Omaha–The house that he bought is a seven year old bank foreclosure–A six bedroom, four and 1/2bath–three car garage beauty-of-a home !!—If it were in Closter it would sell for at least 950k.(Present price-:$950k-; 2005 price-: $1.2mil.) He “got” it for $239,000 !!—And this is after the bank put in all new carpets and a complete interior paint job—The house sits in a nice “newish” development with all concrete streets and underground utilities. Since it was a building contractors house he had the OAK colonial moldings installed throughout the house–walk-in closets,jacuzzi,private office –the works!!—–If I didn’t see it for myself, I would not believe it!—-The house alone in materials would probably cost the $239k. The ONLY drawback that I see is the property taxes: Approx. $ 5,000+/year……..Sound’s unreal–But the above is TRUE !
Bob
Just went to see some open houses in North Jersey. Here’s what I noticed. Quite a few buyers out there for the below $700k homes. Not many for the 1.12m homes. My realtor said that she has noticed a SURGE in buyer activity but wonders what will materialize. There are buyers hoping to pick up some deals.
QUESTION: Is this a seasonal pattern or are the sidelined buyers reading the papers and hoping to jump in and pick up some bargains? Perhaps they’re hoping that lower Fed Funds means lower mortgage rates.
I HATE NORTH JERSEY. Low inventory of quality homes. The real estate slowdown has NOT affected this region. Maybe the lower quality homes but not the good ones.
Patience is the keyword. This bubble will take a while to deflate and will shoot to the underside, just as we witnessed a blow-off top sometime in 05.
We’re only in the second stage of the decline. Sep 1 RIP.
Think of the potshots as directed towards the former and future Macys perfume squirters and their ilk that infected your ranks in recent years.
Once the shakeout is done, those people will be gone and the good people will remain.
Balance will return to the force and your profession will be the better for it.
BLB 314,
Master Yoda.
I HATE NORTH JERSEY. Low inventory of quality homes. The real estate slowdown has NOT affected this region. Maybe the lower quality homes but not the good ones.
_____________________________________
Kind of what I have said all along, yet many insist I am deluded. When we looked we saw either amazing places (too expensive) or a rundown POS that was affordable, but needed a complete rehab and still had a crummy location. Oh well. We did ‘OK’…made some improvements. May stay a long time — may try to move on in say 3-5 years. Who knows.
#317 I HATE NORTH JERSEY. Low inventory of quality homes. The real estate slowdown has NOT affected this region. Maybe the lower quality homes but not the good ones.
You just have to be patient, and let the process work itself out, no area, no price range, no house no matter how nice is immune.
This bubble did not happen overnigth, you cann expect it to declien over night.
#317 I HATE NORTH JERSEY. Low inventory of quality homes. The real estate slowdown has NOT affected this region. Maybe the lower quality homes but not the good ones.
You just have to be patient, and let the process work itself out, no area, no price range, no house no matter how nice is immune.
This bubble did not happen overnigth, you cann expect it to declien over night.
Hovanian CEO says they will not go bankrupt. He must use one of those balls you shake for answers.
I am Mr Doughnut the Mystic. Many more will claim they will not go bankrupt.
Stay tuned for more Mystic answers or go to AOL Message Boards Discuss The State Of The Job Market.
Should I shock the Optimistic with the hard cold truth? The current Realstate Market has it’s decline rooted in outsourcing. The Tech Bubble fueled by outsourcing doomed the housing market which then was floated by subprime loans and Foreign Nationals.
The mess gets a little more exposed each day. Just imagine how much money was laundered out of the USA by foreigners. Mr Doughnut saw it coming long before NAFTA. Was China a surprise also? Now the housing market begins to look like the 1930’s. No surprise here.
Hello and congratulations! notem6715