How much hideousness do you get for $9.5m $6.75m?

Posted on May 1, 2009 by grim

Presented without comment in lieu of the “Weekend Open”

242 Hartshorn Drive, Millburn NJ
Original List Price: $9,500,000
Current Asking: $6,750,000

This entry was posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

234 Responses to How much hideousness do you get for $9.5m $6.75m?

  2. Essex says:
    May 1, 2009 at 3:53 pm

    Good Lord….

  3. Essex says:
    May 1, 2009 at 3:54 pm

    Is that….*shudder* blue shag carpeting? And A Mirrored Ceiling?

  4. grim says:
    May 1, 2009 at 3:54 pm

    You can never have enough columns, or mirrored ceilings for that matter.

  5. grim says:
    May 1, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    Worth every penny of the $90,336 per year tax bill.

  6. JBJB says:
    May 1, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    Looks like a Jersey version of Graceland.

  7. DirtyDigz says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    I’ll lay 10-to-1 odds prior owner was of Persian descent…

  8. Sean says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    Grimmy, the vulture did a piece on that place that made it into NY Times back in Feb.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/realestate/15njzo.html?_r=1&ref=realestate

  9. Sean says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:01 pm

    your in that article too….

  10. cobbler says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:06 pm

    Well, during the Great Depression Newport (RI) mansions were going for as low as 10K (probably, 150 K in todays money?). This is not a place to live, this is a toy for using which one has to pay 90K/yr, and also probably another 200K in staff salaries. I liked the one shown here a couple of weeks ago (in Highlands) much better – 4x cheaper, too.

  11. HEHEHE says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:07 pm

    I can’t wait to stand at the top of that staircase and shout “Say hello to my little friend!”

  12. Silera says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:07 pm

    That place is FANTASTIC.

    I want to slurp champagne out of solo cups on that ocean/carpet.

  13. kettle1 says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:07 pm

    SAS,

    lets just drug everyone!!!!

    Lithium in water ‘curbs suicide’

    “Drinking water which contains the element lithium may reduce the risk of suicide, a Japanese study suggests.”

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8025454.stm

  14. HEHEHE says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:08 pm

    It may cost $6.5M a year to clean all those friggin’ pillars.

  15. DirtyDigz says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    Persians, ya know? Blue Rugs? Gold curtain rods? Come on, work with me here…

  16. Herring123 says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:10 pm

    Dude… You could, like, totally have the most pimped out sweet-16 in this place… in 1978

  17. DirtyDigz says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:11 pm

    …Big white fluffy cats? Oil lamps?

  18. BC Bob says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:12 pm

    Sean [8],

    From the article;

    “We didn’t cut the price because the market is bad,” Ms. Chapman said. “My client is getting married, and she really wants to sell.”

    Well, I didn’t really opt for the chemo because the cancer was threatening, I simply wanted to remain alive.

  19. DirtyDigz says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:14 pm

    …hammered and engraved brass tabletops?

  20. skep-tic says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:14 pm

    you could buy that place, shoot 10 rap videos in there and have it paid off. looks like a bargain.

  21. make money says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:17 pm

    you could buy that place, shoot 10 rap videos in there and have it paid off. looks like a bargain.

    funny but I hear from a friend of mine in Colts Neck Young Jeezy paid over 200K for a two day shoot.

  22. make money says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:18 pm

    Well, I didn’t really opt for the chemo because the cancer was threatening, I simply wanted to remain alive.

    Post of the day!

  23. homeboken says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:19 pm

    I was struggling where I have seen that place, and finnally it hit.

    I think everyone of the early 70’s pornos I used to sneak out of my Dad’s closet was filmed in that joint.

  24. toshiro_mifune says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:19 pm

    From the NYT article on the property;

    “The Otteau Valuation Group’s January report said there was a 46-month supply of homes priced from $1 million to $2.5 million on the market in New Jersey. (For homes priced at $2.5 million and above, the figure is 59.1 months, or three weeks shy of five years.)”

    Heh…

  25. grim says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:24 pm

    Grimmy, the vulture did a piece on that place that made it into NY Times back in Feb.

    Ah, didn’t notice that. Stumbled upon it last night on the MLS, nearly spit my coffee out laughing.

  26. grim says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:26 pm

    Bank Failure Friday starting early this week!

    On a down note, the FDIC just lost $1,300,000,000.

    From the FDIC:

    FDIC Creates Bridge Bank to Take Over Operations of Silverton Bank, National Association, Atlanta, Georgia

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) created a bridge bank to take over the operations of Silverton Bank, National Association, Atlanta, Georgia, after the bank was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The OCC appointed the FDIC as receiver. The newly created bank is Silverton Bridge Bank, National Association.
    …
    The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $1.3 billion. Silverton Bank is the 30th bank to fail in the nation this year and the sixth in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution to fail in the state was American Southern Bank, Kennesaw, on April 24.

  27. kettle1 says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:31 pm

    Time to buy roche stock?

    roche is the maker of tamiflu. they are also producer of the rapid test for detection of swine flu.

    http://www.fda.gov/cdrh/emergency/H1N1influenza.html

    the FDA statemtn does not specify Roche, however they are the only ones with the version of the Taqnman test up and running. (see the letter of authorization for test description).

    This test has not completed FDA approvel yet, but this emergency authorization i will allow them to manufacture this test until 2011 with out FDA approval (see the labeling PDF)

    If the swine flu continues to spread, roche could see significant profits on this product

  28. toshiro_mifune says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:31 pm

    Don’t forget we’ve been seeing Credit Union failures on Fridays now as well.

  29. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:31 pm

    “lets just drug everyone!”

    in one way another, most everyone is.
    just depends on who your drug dealer will be: your pharm mouth piece physican or govt shipped sponsored drug dealer on the corner and high rollers whom like the pure sheets.

    if you really wanna be a rebel.
    don’t do drugs.

    but what do i know? I’m just a Benny from Elizabeth.

    SAS

  30. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:33 pm

    “Don’t forget we’ve been seeing Credit Union failures on Fridays now as well”

    yes, because its an economic warefare, and the big banks want them on the hit list, so they can get the buisness and turk.

    its like a good ol’ turf war. who will be left standing?

    SAS

  31. Sean says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:35 pm

    Grim – Allot of Atlanta banks on the FDIC radar.

    News out of Atlanta is very disturbing to say the least. I had dinner Wed in the city with relatives and I was told a relative down in Atlanta who is an Attorney is in high demand on the commercial side of the forecloses business down there.

    Some of Atlanta’s highest profile commercial properties have debt maturities within the next year! A massive wave of commercial real estate foreclosures is coming.

  32. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:36 pm

    you know, minus blue carpet, i kind of like that place.

    but, thats too much house for this bloke.

    SAS

  33. Sean says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:38 pm

    re: #26 kettle1 – CDC just announced that the swine flu does not have the same killer DNA characteristics of the 1918 flu.

    Don’t let that stop immunizations however, I believe Obama authorized over a billion to fight this flu already.

  34. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:39 pm

    immunizations
    SV 40

    SAS

  35. BC Bob says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:43 pm

    “I believe Obama authorized over a billion to fight this flu already.”

    Sean,

    1B to save lives, 13T to defeat capitalism.

  36. toshiro_mifune says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:44 pm

    #31 – sas you know, minus blue carpet, i kind of like that place.

    The blue carpet definitely kills it. The rest isn’t too bad…

    – on second thought the fountain is a bit too OTT. It looks like Staten Island trying to do Ralph Lauren.

  37. grim says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:46 pm

    Expected more mirrored ceiling comments.

    I suppose you could convert the kitchen into a basketball court, wouldn’t be so bad.

  38. 3b says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:51 pm

    # 36 grim:Expected more mirrored ceiling comments.

    John is gone for the weekend.

  39. make money says:
    May 1, 2009 at 4:56 pm

    Some of Atlanta’s highest profile commercial properties have debt maturities within the next year! A massive wave of commercial real estate foreclosures is coming.

    That’s exactly why I’m loaded with SRS at this levels.

    all disclaimers of course( my idea of a solid investment is black jack)

  41. HEHEHE says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:18 pm

    Third Derivative Auto DDT Crop Dusted Over Green Shoots

    Posted by Tyler Durden at 5:00 PM
    In yet more bad news for the second derivative crowd, today’s announcement of a 9.3 million SAAR took the green shoot cheerleaders to the woodshed. Not only has this number firmly planted U.S. auto sales in the robust and $3.5 billion Chrysler DIP-worthy level of the late 1970’s, but it has also proven that last month’s SAAR of 9.9 million was as legitimate as the 2.2% consumer driven improvement to GDP. But all is not lost – now that uncle Obama is personally guaranteeing the installation and the bimonthly oiling and dusting of mufflers, hubcaps, and transaxle scotch tape for all hedge fund managers who buy Chrysler cars, it is only a matter of time before the millions of unsold Dodge Rams fly off the cargo docks faster than they can be sent to China to moderate Beijing’s anger over holding millions of rapidly devaluing metric tons of one-ply U.S. treasury paper.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/third-derivative-auto-ddt-crop-dusted.html

  42. grim says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:20 pm

    #39 – I’ve been waiting months for this.

    Going to go drive over there with my camera right now.

  44. SG says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:30 pm

    Finally, China will pull world out of recession.

    China’s property market finally finds a floor

    Pent-up demand is pulling China’s housing market out of the doldrums, but industry experts doubt that a strong, sustained recovery is about to take hold.

    Urban property prices rose in March for the first time in seven months, adding to evidence of recovery witnessed in rebounding sales since the start of the year.

    Residential transactions, excluding social housing, rose 24.7 percent by value in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

  45. Clotpoll says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:31 pm

    HE (40)-

    Other than the stress test hoax of last week, this guy at Zero Hedge is a hoot.

    “One-ply Treasury paper” will make it into MSM by the Fall.

  46. Clotpoll says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:32 pm

    tosh (39)-

    Ridgewood? I’m shocked, simply shocked.

    It cannot be!

  47. toshiro_mifune says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:35 pm

    #41 & #45 – I believe they were in the local bank dead pool from 2 years ago.

  48. Clotpoll says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:39 pm

    My PT Cruiser’s not running so hot.

    I only want Obama under the hood of that car!

    Estimate? I don’t care what the damn estimate is; the gubmint’s warrantied my car. Make it run right.

    Fix my car, byatch. And make me a damn sandwich while you’re at it.

    Disclaimer: I do not own a PT Cruiser. I would not keep one if you gave it to me.

  49. SG says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:45 pm

    Recovery projections unrealistic

    Economics is a strange animal. In the study of physics, there is general agreement on the basic principles. But not in economics. We have some economists who believe that the Obama stimulus bill will make matters worse, while others believe it should be even bigger. It is reasonable to infer that economists who predicted the current economic crisis know more about how to turn the economy around than those who didn’t see it coming.

    President Obama’s massive increase in spending, including earmarks, is going to increase our national debt to dangerous levels. Government economists are projecting that the national debt will be doubled in 5 years and tripled in 10 years. That’s bad enough, but, unfortunately, those estimates are based on wildly unrealistic assumptions.

  50. SG says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:47 pm

    By Dean Baker,

    Let’s Make PPIP Fun!

    Timothy Geithner seems intent on moving forward with his scheme to subsidize the banks by providing up to a trillion dollars of non-recourse loans to investors to buy their junk assets. As many of us have pointed out, this is a subsidy in that it creates a “heads the investors win, tails the taxpayer loses situation.” If the investment turns out well, the investor makes lots of money. If the investment does poorly, then the taxpayer gets most of the loss.

    As many of us have pointed out, this will allow some investors to do very well on investments they would have made otherwise, since the government is giving them a large dose of cheap loans. More importantly, it is a huge subsidy to the banks, since it will lead investors to pay considerably more than the market price for junk assets, since the government is bearing most of the downside risk. There are also ample opportunities for gaming, which the shrewd Wall Street crew can be expected to fully exploit.

  52. Comrade nom deplume (for May Day) says:
    May 1, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    [39]

    An NJ failure. Hat tip to Mifume-san!

  53. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 6:01 pm

    “mirrored ceiling”

    doesn’t phase a guy like me.

    SAS

  55. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 6:02 pm

    Essex,

    “28. SAS…..Drugs Are Good”

    you must have gas again.

    SAS

  56. SG says:
    May 1, 2009 at 6:04 pm

    Senate nixes mortgage ‘cram downs’

    Bankruptcy judges won’t get the power to rewrite the terms of mortgages on primary residences anytime soon, after a dozen Democrats joined Republicans in the Senate on Thursday and voted against tacking bankruptcy “cram down” legislation onto another housing bill.

    In a 45-51 vote, the Senate rejected an amendment to S 896, the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act. Introduced by Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., the amendment would have allowed cram downs on mortgages when homeowners were already in foreclosure and lenders had not offered a loan modification.

    In a 234-191 vote March 5, the House of Representatives signed off on cram-down language in passing the House version of the bill, HR 1106 (see story).

    Cram-down supporters say they want to force lenders to step up efforts to help homeowners avoid foreclosure. Bankruptcy judges already have cram-down powers over mortgages on second homes and investment properties.

    But opponents in the lending industry continued to lobby against an expansion of cram-down powers. Judicial modifications of mortgages on primary residences would raise the cost of borrowing, they said, by introducing new risks for lenders and investors who fund lending through purchases of investments backed by mortgages.

  57. SG says:
    May 1, 2009 at 6:08 pm

    Commercial mortgage meltdown might be next

    By some estimates, two out of every three will no longer meet the original loan conditions, and borrowers won’t be able to refinance. And with prices for commercial properties expected to plunge, a vicious cycle may unfold, much as it did in the housing market.

    “It’s the next wave to hit. It’s the next round of bad news,” said Scott Talbott, senior vice president of government affairs for the Financial Services Roundtable, a trade group for big banks and other financial institutions.

    “On the street, the rumor is it is coming and it’s going to come fast and furious. Some people are predicting September,” said Paul Waters, a New York-based executive vice president of brokerage operations in North America for NAI Global, a top-five commercial real estate brokerage.

  58. BC Bob says:
    May 1, 2009 at 6:23 pm

    “Estimate? I don’t care what the damn estimate is; the gubmint’s warrantied my car. Make it run right.”

    Clot,

    And at the next window, insure the pos. I want some of that govt subsidized ins.

  59. SG says:
    May 1, 2009 at 6:24 pm

    Europe’s Banks Enter Home Sales

    But as the economy worsens, the pressure on property owners who borrowed against their real estate is mounting. Before the recession ends, the banks will likely end up with more property on their books and could become big sellers of real estate.

    A high-profile example of the trend is how Spanish property group Metrovacesa SA essentially gave up the office tower housing HSBC Holdings PLC’s headquarters at London’s Canary Wharf last year. Metrovacesa bought the building from the British bank in 2007 for £1.09 billion ($1.6 billion), with HSBC providing an £810 million bridge loan. Unable to refinance that debt, Metrovacesa “sold” the building back to HSBC for £838 million. Now, HSBC is testing the market to see how much it could get for its Canary Wharf building and two other trophy assets in Paris and New York.

  60. safeashouses says:
    May 1, 2009 at 6:40 pm

    That house would be a great set for a toga party.

    toga toga toga

  61. Clotpoll says:
    May 1, 2009 at 6:48 pm

    BC (57)-

    Where’s my window? Where can I offload my rubbish for some minty-fresh fiat paper?

  63. grim says:
    May 1, 2009 at 7:18 pm

    Thornburg files for bankruptcy, about time…

  64. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 7:24 pm

    Michelle Obama,

    hey, nice shoes.

    now, just get rid of your idiot husband.
    dump the zero.

    SAS

  65. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 7:25 pm

    “Two more banks taken over by regulators
    Closures marks 31st bank failures this year”
    http://tinyurl.com/dln2vt

    -Regulators on Friday shut down Georgia’s Silverton Bank N.A. and New Jersey’s Citizens Community Bank, bringing the number of bank failures this year to 31.

  66. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 7:28 pm

    i love the smell of fraud… ahh…

    “LexisNexis warns 32,000 people about data breach”
    http://tinyurl.com/d6xma4

    SAS

  67. Outofstater says:
    May 1, 2009 at 7:30 pm

    Oh God. That house is the second best example of what Jean Shepherd used to call “slob art.” The best example I ever saw was for sale at Seaside Heights. It was a statue of the Blessed Virgin Mary on a base of small seashells. There were Christmas tree lights in the base and she wore a sash, like Miss America, that said, “No Nukes.” If I had had the 23 bucks, I would have bought it. One seldom sees the finest example of an art form for sale on the boardwalk.

  68. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 7:31 pm

    “BLOOMY PUSHES FOR EVEN BIGGER SALES TAX HIKE”
    http://tinyurl.com/ck2rse

  69. Outofstater says:
    May 1, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    Re: Georgia bank failures – honestly, I haven’t heard of ANY of the banks that have failed. We have the big, insolvent ones around me – BoA, Wachovia, WaMu. Oh and BB&T which has the reputation of being in pretty good shape, but I don’t really know.

  70. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 7:45 pm

    Outofstater,

    i can’t tell. are you being serious or sarcasm?

    SAS

  71. Outofstater says:
    May 1, 2009 at 7:51 pm

    SAS – Serious.

  72. BC Bob says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:16 pm

    “Now, HSBC is testing the market to see how much it could get for its Canary Wharf building and two other trophy assets in Paris and New York.”

    HSBC? Another elephant grounded. Then again, they do utilize AIG as a conduit. Thank you, sheeple.

  73. safeashouses says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:23 pm

    “Stop using Hydroxycut products, FDA says”

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/01/hydroxycut.fda.recall/index.html

  74. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:26 pm

    ” haven’t heard of ANY of the banks that have failed. We have the big, insolvent ones around me”

    ok gotcha.

    well, i believe what we have been seeig every Fri is not so called “failures”, but rather “take downs”.

    small banks, some whom actually have decent financials, are being taken over for market share & money consolidation by the so called “big banks”.

    in the controled pressed you hear “recession, recession” but what they don’t tell you, “takedown & warfare”. Its spun to keep you from maken a illlogical, other than logical conclusion. (kind of like the Obama & Apple Advertisment teams).

    I know its sounds conpiracy, but hey no ones ever proven me nine.

    look into it.
    SAS

  75. 3b says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:30 pm

    For those who cannot afford the 6 million dollar plus price tag on the above listing, I would like to point out that class and beauthy can also come in a small package.

    The listing below is in beautiful Glen Rock. A town that has all the attributes, Bergen Co. blue ribbon, and train town.

    Hurry, and you can be in in time for the 4th of July!!!

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2906231&id=999999

  76. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:36 pm

    Outofstater,

    keep in mind too:
    crime that pays, is crime that stays.
    from the top down and the bottom up.

    as the RE bubble collapses, we never hear about Fraudulent inducement either.

    The powers that be try to keep the idea hush…hush…

    Now, back to the streets of Lodi.
    SAS

  77. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:40 pm

    3b,

    “GLEN ROCK – $749,000”

    i took a ski trip down that roof one winter.

    :P
    SAS

  78. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:42 pm

    “Time to buy roche stock?”

    you missed my post 1.5 weeks ago.

    I laid it out as to whom profits.
    The obvious, and the not so obvious.

    SAS

  79. sas says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:47 pm

    “Major US Carriers Cutting Service to Mexico”
    http://www.1010wins.com/Carriers-Cutting-Service-to-Mexico/4315063

    SAS

  80. BC Bob says:
    May 1, 2009 at 9:24 pm

    “Who in their right mind could be satisfied with the boards of Citigroup or Bank of America, which in the past year have destroyed most of their stock-market value, crawled like beggars in search of government rescue money, and turned their brand names into household curse words?”

    [Edit] Who? Shorty. Thank you.

    “They have to know they face even more dilution of their stakes because the banks probably don’t have enough capital to avoid returning to the bailout trough. And Bank of America’s shareholders must remember how Lewis’s board royally hosed them in December, by not disclosing the 11-figure losses at Merrill Lynch & Co. until after the purchase of Merrill was completed.”

    [Edit] Tough sheet. You are the fools holding the paper.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=agJ0gr2HP1RI&refer=home

  81. Firestormik says:
    May 1, 2009 at 9:30 pm

    As an owner of 06 Sonata was curious on how Hyundai is doing. Seems like much better then the rivals.

    SAN FRANCISCO — Hyundai Motor Co. said late Wednesday that U.S. March sales slipped 5% to 40,721 vehicles from 42,796 last year. Sonata sales rose to 12,406 units from 11,306 last year, and Elantra sales fell to 9,510 vehicles from 11,505.

    Copyright © 2009 MarketWatch, Inc.

    ———————————–
    re: 3b from the previous post,
    I would stay away from Sorento – gas milage will kill you. Not sure about newer generation of Sportage, older one was junk.

  82. bi says:
    May 1, 2009 at 9:38 pm

    did you miss this piece?

    – the S&P 500 had its best April percentage gain since 1938

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/30519097

  83. Firestormik says:
    May 1, 2009 at 9:51 pm

    bi: The next article like this will be “S&P” had it’s worst month since 1938

  84. PGC says:
    May 1, 2009 at 9:56 pm

    #28 tosh

    “Don’t forget we’ve been seeing Credit Union failures on Fridays now as well.”

    Most of them are still smarting from the implosion of CU Mortgage.

    http://ml-implode.com/imploded/lender_CUNationalMortgage_2009-02-12.html

  85. BC Bob says:
    May 1, 2009 at 11:00 pm

    “the S&P 500 had its best April percentage gain since 1938”

    The dogs led the rally on low volume. Anybody, who has a pulse, realizes that after a hellacious move lower, markets will retrace 25-60%. Nothing scientific about this. However, when a new bull market begins, it will not be led by the old dogs. There will be new leadership. Simply, another dead cat bounce. Hopefully, it will continue on the path towards the 200 dma.

  86. Firestormik says:
    May 2, 2009 at 12:13 am

    Re: 84 Banking with DCU and happy.

  87. CAIBC says:
    May 2, 2009 at 12:21 am

    ridgewood bank? what?

    its really happening….even in ridgewood????

    http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/citizens.html

    we need a localized bailout…quick…

  89. kettle1 says:
    May 2, 2009 at 6:44 am

    SAS

    here is some economic warfare for you

    Morgan Stanley tries to blow up Borat’s bank
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fa0428ee-35a7-11de-a997-00144feabdc0.html

  90. Clotpoll says:
    May 2, 2009 at 6:45 am

    BC (85)-

    The shorting opportunity of a lifetime.

  92. Clotpoll says:
    May 2, 2009 at 6:49 am

    vodka (89)-

    Economic warfare? Sounds like MS has stolen GS’ playbook.

    Just another day at the office.

    “For it transpires that while the US bank has a loan to BTA it also has a big CDS position on BTA, that pays out if – and only if – the Kazakh bank goes into default. Indeed, some of Morgan Stanley’s rivals suspect that notwithstanding its loan, Morgan Stanley is actually net short the Kazakh bank.

    As a result speculation is rife that Morgan might have deliberately provoked the default of BTA to profit on its CDS, since a default makes the US bank a net winner, not a loser as logic might suggest.

    Morgan Stanley, for its part, refuses to comment on this speculation (although its officials note that the bank does not generally take active “short” positions in its clients.) And I personally have no way of knowing whether Morgan is short or long, since Morgan refuses to disclose details of its CDS holding.

    What is crystal clear is that somebody has been placing big bets on whether or not the banking equivalent of Borat will blow up. Right now more than $700m BTA CDS contracts are registered with the Depositary Trust & Clearing Corp in New York. Last year the BTA CDS contract was so liquid that banks and hedge funds were trading it as a proxy for Kazakh governent debt.”

  93. SG says:
    May 2, 2009 at 6:51 am

    Bit old, but still very funny.

    Real Estate Downfall

  94. Clotpoll says:
    May 2, 2009 at 6:51 am

    The person who comes up with a board game that allows stuff like banks putting each other out of business, bucket-shop operations, pump-and-dump and wild derivatives bets will outsell Monopoly & Trivial Pursuit.

  95. Seneca says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:00 am

    Can someone tell me the true listing history on MLS 2678967?

  96. crossroads says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:05 am

    88 sg
    great barney video.

    I don’t think pols put income and living expenses down on paper to see what many of us are facing day to day

  97. kettle1 says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:08 am

    clot

    Fed Said to Be Close to Offering Five-Year TALF Loans for Commercial Mortgage- Backed Securities
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apX0Vu7khgHU&refer=home

  98. kettle1 says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:11 am

    CMBS Defaults, Delinquencies Tripled Last Quarter

    Defaults and late payments on property loans sold as commercial mortgage-backed securities tripled to 1.8 percent of outstanding balances in the first quarter and may rise to the highest in almost two decades, Reis Inc. said today. Almost $10.7 billion of roughly $610 billion of CMBS loans outstanding were 30 days or more past due last quarter, Christopher Stanley and Kyle McLaughlin, analysts at New York- based Reis, said in the report. The default and delinquency rate on CMBS loans rose from 1.14 percent in the fourth quarter and 0.53 percent a year earlier, the property research firm said. The rate could hit 6 percent by year’s end, the report said.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aa60UdC93WzU&refer=us

  99. SG says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:12 am

    The frugal American consumer: permanent or temporary?

    So, as the band played on and U.S. consumers became overextended and ultimately unable to access credit (which recently has become scarce and expensive), the party ended in a bang. The guest with the biggest hangover was the U.S. consumer.

    And American consumers have responded quickly, altering behavior from “spender” to “saver,” virtually overnight. By the way, that is precisely the right medicine to take in order to rebalance the system. Painful as it might be, the U.S. consumer is paying the price for past excesses.

    The average U.S. household has cut discretionary spending by almost 30 percent between September 2009 and April 2009. The ramifications of that are global and severe.

    The average American has gone from a savings rate of 0 percent at the beginning of 2008 to 5 percent at the beginning of 2009, and in the absence of growing job losses and income pressures, the savings rate will likely be at 10 percent shortly.

    So, is this a “blip” in U.S. consumer spending or is American consumer frugality the “new normal?” The answer is the latter. This is a once-in-a-generation rebalancing period. U.S. consumers must pay down their debt, consume less and save more. That is happening, which means returning to trend-line consumption levels off of peaks, and that is painful.

  100. Clotpoll says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:13 am

    vodka (97)-

    First, TALF is for one-year maturities.

    Then, it’s three years.

    Now, it will be five.

    The gubmint is just edging their way into having a permanent hand in everything.

    Personally, I’d like for the revolution to happen in my lifetime, since it’s our generation that fcuked everything up so bad. Doesn’t seem right for my kids to have to fight my fight, long after I’m dead.

  101. kettle1 says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:14 am

    maybe the us citizens need to take some lessons from the french

    French warned of “revolutionary risk”, “social explosion”

    Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to march through the streets of France today as the traditional May Day rallies become a focus point for anger over factory closures, job cuts and Nicolas Sarkozy’s handling of the economic crisis. Union leaders are calling the day “historic” as a record number of almost 300 demonstrations are planned across the country. All trade unions will march as a united front for the first time on May Day since the second world war. Public support for the demonstrations is over 70%, as protesters take to the streets for various reasons. Many are angry at mass lay-offs while they feel fat-cat bosses are being protected by the government.

    The former prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, has warned of a “revolutionary risk” in France. In one poll yesterday for Challenges magazine, 66% people felt there was a risk of “social explosion” over the coming months.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/01/may-day-france-protests-sarkozy

  102. Clotpoll says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:15 am

    Then again, I don’t think TALF can put even a tiny dent in the wave of CMBS defaults that are coming.

    Got demand?

  103. kettle1 says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:19 am

    World Bank’s Bonds Show What Happens When Big Governments Rush to Rescue

    Federal guarantees by 13 countries on more than $400 billion of financial company bonds are punishing the AAA-rated World Bank Group with record borrowing costs — an indication of what can go wrong when government gets in the way. The Washington-based World Bank, founded in 1944 to rebuild economies after World War II, sold $6 billion of three-year notes March 26 priced to yield 30 basis points more than the benchmark for such borrowings. The so-called spread was the widest for a dollar-denominated bond offering by the supranational lender, said George Richardson, the institution’s head of capital markets, in an interview.

    Just seven months ago, the World Bank paid a record low 35 basis points less than the midswap rate, a market measure for exchanging fixed- and floating-rate cash flows.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahSZlk5fNTAE&refer=home

  105. grim says:
    May 2, 2009 at 8:16 am

    Can someone tell me the true listing history on MLS 2678967?

    MLS# 2561699
    Listed: 8/1/2008
    OLP: $574,000
    LLP: $554,900
    DOM: 92
    Expired

    MLS# 2595497
    Listed: 11/4/2009
    OLP/LLP: $549,900
    DOM: 92
    Expired

    (Was also listed for lease, leased for $2,800/mo on 11/25/2008).

    MLS# 2678967
    Listed: 5/1/2009
    OLP: $519,000

  106. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 8:53 am

    http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSN0135928320090502

    “WaMu seeks to investigate JP Morgan conduct in deal”

    Remember this fiasco when the FDIC stepped in?

    “Washington Mutual Inc. on Friday asked a U.S. bankruptcy court to let it probe whether JP Morgan Chase & Co. had unlawfully damaged its former thrift unit’s assets in order to buy it “on the cheap,” at $1.9billion, last September.”

    I’ll go search for the Bronte Capital post on this a while back. He was beside-himself-p!ssed.

  108. Stu says:
    May 2, 2009 at 8:58 am

    Report: Citigroup may need $10B in extra capital

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Report-Citigroup-may-need-10B-apf-15109787.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

    “Citigroup has already received $45 billion in federal funds.

    The government, which will soon own a 36 percent stake in the bank, also has agreed to insure a pool of more than $300 billion of its riskiest assets.”

  109. Frank says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:02 am

    #108,
    $10B is a rounding error for Citi. The stock will rally.

  110. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:07 am

    http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2008/09/reckless-irresponsible-seizure-of.html

    “The reckless irresponsible seizure of Washington Mutual: please read in Washington DC”

    He also posted:

    “Sheila Bair is either a criminal or a grotesquely incompetent stark raving idiot”

  111. Frank says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:14 am

    Rally will continue on Monday…

    “Any Citi capital need seen as manageable-sources”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idINN0135284020090502

  113. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:44 am

    #81 fire: Thanks for the info. I realize the older Sportage was junk. But accoring to all the research I have done, the new ones are excellent. As far as safety, reliability, and good gas mileage.

    Like Toyota back in the day, they kept at it until they got it right.

  114. Orion says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:52 am

    Obama Endorses Global Regulation For U.S.

    On April 2 at the recent G-20 summit in London, President Barack Obama endorsed handing over the regulation of all major US financial companies, including large insurance companies and large hedge funds, to the newly created international “Financial Stability Board” (FSB) which is headquartered in Europe. The FSB’s predecessor organization was the Financial Stability Forum which primarily included the central banks of the G-8 countries.

  116. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:57 am

    #111 frank: I love Bear market rallies.

  117. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:01 am

    #115 orion: I do not believe it. Wall st will never allow it,and wall st owns our politicians including, Obama.

    There may be some window dressing, here and there, but that is it.

  118. Orion says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:10 am

    3b:

    You might be right about the window dressing, however, the mere fact that O endorsed it in a global forum makes me want to vomit.

  119. Victorian says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:13 am

    Excellent article by Simon Johnson

    Zombie Oligarchs

    http://baselinescenario.com/2009/05/01/zombie-oligarchs/#more-3512

    “We’re looking at a near term dominated by the existing economic power structure. The remaining big banks (in the US) and big banks/corporates (elsewhere) are made invincible by campaign contributions, political connections, and everyone’s reasonable fear of a great depression. It will be hard for outsiders to challenge that structure effectively – either as new companies or with new ideas. But you won’t see a great deal of innovation, investment, and growth coming from these survivors.

    How do we eventually escape the grip of zombie oligarchs? We’ll have a fair amount of time to think that through.”

  120. BC Bob says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:38 am

    “The shorting opportunity of a lifetime.”

    Clot,

    Be real patient. Sit back and let the perception/reality spread widen.

  121. Sam says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:45 am

    Maybe the record low interest rate we just hit again will sell this house…but probably not.

  122. grim says:
    May 2, 2009 at 11:03 am

    Call me crazy, but my opinion is, at these price levels, mortgage rates and economic conditions are irrelevant to a qualified buyer. These kinds of properties are purchased as price-no-object status symbols. The more conspicuous the better. Hell, paying over asking is probably something that gets flaunted as well. Another world up there.

  123. chicagofinance says:
    May 2, 2009 at 11:21 am

    #1 grim: reign this crap in please
    #2 dudes: you post these “opinions”, then you must qualify them
    #3 all: if you bet…KEEP THE BETS LEVEL!

    BC Bob says:
    May 1, 2009 at 11:00 pm
    Anybody, who has a pulse, realizes that after a hellacious move lower, markets will retrace 25-60%. Nothing scientific about this.

    Clotpoll says:
    May 2, 2009 at 6:45 am
    BC (85)- The shorting opportunity of a lifetime.

  124. chicagofinance says:
    May 2, 2009 at 11:27 am

    #3A: remember use of levered and/or derivative product must be factored into your aggressive gambling…..

  125. kim says:
    May 2, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    I just got back from an estate sale. The house is on the market for $369K, on a crappy semi-main road. House itself has potential but pretty much needs the inside gutted. Nice yard but the backyard overlooks a highway. Heard a potential buyer talking to someone about how he had a decent downpayment but banks aren’t lending. Think they’ll be lucky to get $200K.

  126. chicagofinance says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:16 pm

    #1 author is Chicago grad
    #2 realize that in this environment, the powers that be are forcing investors to look elsewhere….hence, one pertinent defense of asset appreciation
    #3 oof

    WSJ
    MAY 2, 2009
    ‘I Bond’ Payments Get Wiped Out When Inflation Goes Negative, Investors in These Savings Products Suffer
    By JANE J. KIM

    Rates on government securities, certificates of deposit and savings accounts all have plummeted in recent months. Now, yields on another safe haven — Series I Savings Bonds, or I bonds — are dropping to nothing.

    Friday, the Treasury Department said these inflation-linked bonds that are purchased between May and October will earn 0% for their first six months, the first time rates have hit 0% since the bonds were issued in 1998. The announcement also affects current I-bond owners, whose interest rate drops to 0% the next time their rates reset.

    Blame the financial crisis. Normally, yields on inflation-linked investments gradually rise as prices rise. But amid the sharp drop in consumer-price inflation last fall, returns on many inflation-linked products were hammered.

    Rates on I bonds, whose maturities are all 30 years, have two parts: a fixed rate, now set by the Treasury at 0.10% for new issues and which lasts for the bond’s life, and the inflation adjustment, which reflects the change in the Consumer Price Index over a six-month period. Since that inflation adjustment worked out to a negative 5.56% annualized rate for the September-to-March period, the fixed-rate portion of every I bond will be wiped out during its next six-month rate period. The Treasury announces the rates each May 1 and Nov. 1.

    The silver lining is that rates can’t fall below 0%, so I-bond holders won’t lose their principal. What’s more, “prices tend to go up in the first half of the year, so because of that, we’d definitely expect there to be a positive inflation component” the next time the rate resets, said Tom Adams, editor of http://www.savings-bond-advisor.com.

    Over the long term, inflation-linked investments are still a good bet, experts say. “In the short term, inflation will be hard to detect because of the weak economy and lack of pricing power,” says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “But over the longer term, the substantial debt issuance by the government and large ongoing deficits bode for higher inflation than what we’ve experienced in recent years.”

    Until rates pick up, the best option might be to “suck it up” while the bonds pay 0%, Mr. Adams says. I bonds typically lag behind returns on other investments, so its investors are coming off returns of 4.92%, while stock-market indexes fell around 40%, he says. Returns on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, by contrast, fell last year, but have started to inch higher as signs of inflation emerged in recent months.

    For those thinking about cashing in I bonds after the one-year minimum holding period, be sure to find out what your bonds are earning now and when their rates will reset, says Mr. Adams. The Treasury has an online calculator at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/tools/tools_savingsbondcalc.htm.

  127. chicagofinance says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:16 pm

    grim unmod?

  128. chicagofinance says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    two links….sorry

    chicagofinance says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    May 2, 2009 at 1:16 pm
    #1 author is Chicago grad
    #2 realize that in this environment, the powers that be are forcing investors to look elsewhere….hence, one pertinent defense of asset appreciation
    #3 oof

    WSJ
    MAY 2, 2009
    ‘I Bond’ Payments Get Wiped Out When Inflation Goes Negative, Investors in These Savings Products Suffer
    By JANE J. KIM

    Rates on government securities, certificates of deposit and savings accounts all have plummeted in recent months. Now, yields on another safe haven — Series I Savings Bonds, or I bonds — are dropping to nothing.

    Friday, the Treasury Department said these inflation-linked bonds that are purchased between May and October will earn 0% for their first six months, the first time rates have hit 0% since the bonds were issued in 1998. The announcement also affects current I-bond owners, whose interest rate drops to 0% the next time their rates reset.

    Blame the financial crisis. Normally, yields on inflation-linked investments gradually rise as prices rise. But amid the sharp drop in consumer-price inflation last fall, returns on many inflation-linked products were hammered.

    Rates on I bonds, whose maturities are all 30 years, have two parts: a fixed rate, now set by the Treasury at 0.10% for new issues and which lasts for the bond’s life, and the inflation adjustment, which reflects the change in the Consumer Price Index over a six-month period. Since that inflation adjustment worked out to a negative 5.56% annualized rate for the September-to-March period, the fixed-rate portion of every I bond will be wiped out during its next six-month rate period. The Treasury announces the rates each May 1 and Nov. 1.

    The silver lining is that rates can’t fall below 0%, so I-bond holders won’t lose their principal. What’s more, “prices tend to go up in the first half of the year, so because of that, we’d definitely expect there to be a positive inflation component” the next time the rate resets, said Tom Adams, editor of savings-bond-advisor.

    Over the long term, inflation-linked investments are still a good bet, experts say. “In the short term, inflation will be hard to detect because of the weak economy and lack of pricing power,” says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “But over the longer term, the substantial debt issuance by the government and large ongoing deficits bode for higher inflation than what we’ve experienced in recent years.”

    Until rates pick up, the best option might be to “suck it up” while the bonds pay 0%, Mr. Adams says. I bonds typically lag behind returns on other investments, so its investors are coming off returns of 4.92%, while stock-market indexes fell around 40%, he says. Returns on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, by contrast, fell last year, but have started to inch higher as signs of inflation emerged in recent months.

    For those thinking about cashing in I bonds after the one-year minimum holding period, be sure to find out what your bonds are earning now and when their rates will reset, says Mr. Adams. The Treasury has an online calculator at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/tools/tools_savingsbondcalc.htm.

  129. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:21 pm

    Grim – When will it be time to revisit the predictions from December?

    I know I mentioned (along with others) 4.5% mortgage rates. Unemployment being the #1 issue and possible trade with Cuba. I know there wash a bit about a show called “frugal families” and that the dollar would hold up.

    I figured we would be looking at 2010 for a turn around.

    Does anyone else remember what they said? Wasn’t that December 2010?

  130. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:24 pm

    Jeesh (128) – What a mess!

    I know there WAS..not “wash.”

    And – that should be….

    Wasn’t that December 2008 not 2010. Sorry.

  131. chicagofinance says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:24 pm

    What happens when you give idiots blackboxes and they walk confidently with the perception that precision equates to accuracy……kurtosis that I was discussing a few weekends ago and assuming the normal…….thanks for forcing the competent to have answer for your stupidity merely because we survived and you are gone……

    Wall Street Journal
    MAY 2, 2009
    Odds-On Imperfection: Monte Carlo Simulation
    Financial-Planning Tool Fails to Gauge Extreme Events

    By ELEANOR LAISE

    If one had asked a financial adviser 18 months ago for retirement-planning guidance, there is a good chance he would have run a “Monte Carlo” simulation. This calculation method, as it is commonly used in financial planning, estimates the odds of reaching retirement financial goals.

    But there is little chance your Monte Carlo simulation, named for the gambling mecca, would have highlighted a scenario like the market slide just seen. Though these tools typically run a portfolio through hundreds or thousands of potential market scenarios, they often assign minuscule odds to extreme market events. Yet these extreme events seem to be happening more often.

    Some industry participants and academics are pushing to improve the Monte Carlo tools’ ability to highlight the risk of major market slides.

    There is no standard Monte Carlo approach, but the method is nothing new. It was used during World War II to help develop the atomic bomb. By the late 1990s some financial-services firms, like T. Rowe Price Group Inc., had introduced Monte Carlo tools aimed at individuals.

    Monte Carlo simulation has wide appeal, and is used in online tools offered by firms like Fidelity Investments and by independent retirement planners. The financial-services industry provides retirement planning, in part, because it attracts clients and boosts fee income.

    Here is how a typical Monte Carlo retirement-planning tool might work: The user enters information about his age, earnings, assets, retirement-plan contributions, investment mix and other details. The calculator crunches the numbers on hundreds or thousands of potential market scenarios, guided by assumptions about inflation, volatility and other parameters.

    It then spits out a “success rate,” which shows the percentage of market scenarios in which the investor had money remaining at the end of his estimated life span. In many cases, the consequences of failure — say, running out of money at age 80 — aren’t laid out.

    Many providers of the tools argue that it is a significant improvement over the traditional retirement-planning approach, which typically involves assuming some set market return, say 8% for U.S. stocks, year after year, an assumption considered unrealistic by academics and financial pros.

    The questions about Monte Carlo tools reflect broader concerns about mathematical models for gauging portfolio risks.

    These models were supposed to help quantify and manage the risks of mortgage-backed securities, credit-default swaps and other complex instruments. But given the events of the past couple of years, it appears that the models often gave big institutions, as well as small investors, a false sense of security.

    Now, some investors have decided that if risk can’t be accurately measured, they will just have to play it safe. Jeff McComas, a chemical engineer in Woodbury, Minn., has used six or seven Monte Carlo calculators and found that none highlighted the possibility of a scenario like the recent market downturn. The lesson: “The future is so unknown that your prudent choice is to save as much as you can now and live below your means,” said Mr. McComas, 39 years old.

    Some financial advisers are equally skeptical. “I take whatever probability of failure that comes out of your Monte Carlo simulation and add 20 percentage points,” said William J. Bernstein, author of “The Four Pillars of Investing.”

    Critics emphasize that the problem isn’t Monte Carlo itself, but the assumptions that go into it. Since no standard approach exists, one user might plug in a range of assumptions on interest rates, inflation or volatility that is different from another user.

    Also controversial is that many Monte Carlo simulations assume that market returns fall along a bell-curve-shaped distribution. That means a high probability may be assigned to, say, a stock-market return of 5%, which would fall toward the middle of the bell, and negligible odds assigned to a 54% decline, which would fall near the extreme edge, or “tail.”

    “In a bell-shaped curve the probability of getting one of these extreme outcomes we’re seeing is basically zero,” said Paul Kaplan, vice president of quantitative research at Morningstar Inc.

    While a bell-curve model indicates there is almost no chance of a greater than 13% monthly decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, such declines have happened at least 10 times since 1926, according to a report by Mr. Kaplan.

    Some Monte Carlo models, like the one used by Financial Engines, assign higher odds to extreme market events than the bell-curve distributions. Even so, “I would not claim we have the magical ability to accurately predict very infrequent events,” said Christopher Jones, the firm’s chief investment officer.

    Some firms are considering revising Monte Carlo models to reflect a world where big market swings happen more often. Morningstar last year tweaked its asset-allocation software offered to institutional investors, allowing users to choose a bell-curve-shaped distribution or a “fat-tailed” distribution, which assigns higher probabilities to extreme market events. The company is exploring using this model in more products, Mr. Kaplan said.

    Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economics professor who developed the ESPlanner financial-planning software, and Richard Fullmer, senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments, said they also are considering offering clients Monte Carlo scenarios that incorporate fatter-tailed distributions.

    The choice could make a difference in an investor’s retirement plans. While a bell-curve model shows a negligible risk of a greater than 50% decline in the S&P 500 over extended time periods, a fatter-tailed model assigns it a probability of 4% or 5%, odds high enough to grab the attention of risk-adverse investors, according to Mr. Kaplan’s report.

    Some industry participants and academics are pushing for Monte Carlo tools to more clearly illustrate the scarier scenarios. In a recent paper, Moshe Milevsky, associate finance professor at York University’s Schulich School of Business in Toronto, proposed a calculation that Monte Carlo tools could use to show a retirement plan’s vulnerability to extreme market events.

    Some industry participants also are trying to set standards that could help Monte Carlo tools more accurately capture extreme market events. The Retirement Income Industry Association in 2007 issued a set of principles noting that the calculators should run a large number of scenarios.

    The ideal models run tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of scenarios, which help gauge extreme events at the tail end of the distribution, observers said. Yet some tools run only 1,000 scenarios or just several hundred.

    —Neal Templin contributed to this article.

  132. BC Bob says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:25 pm

    #2 dudes: you post these “opinions”, then you must qualify them

    Chi,

    Nothing more than history.

  133. chicagofinance says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:34 pm

    BC Bob says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:25 pm
    #2 dudes: you post these “opinions”, then you must qualify them
    Chi, Nothing more than history.

    Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results

  134. BC Bob says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:35 pm

    Chi,

    It’s simply fib retracement. Grammar school stuff. It doesn’t work for you? Tough sheet. I am bearish as the biggest growler, yet long. Do you think fundamentals have anything to do with it?

    You want to cut out the crap? Stop the idiot who stated BAC earnings were outstanding.

  135. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:36 pm

    (130) Chicago – I must be like this guy

    The lesson: “The future is so unknown that your prudent choice is to save as much as you can now and live below your means.”

  136. BC Bob says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:36 pm

    “Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results”

    I’m not selling a product, nor is anyone listening.

  137. Sybarite says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:47 pm

    Plus, anyone who takes a position based on what they read here, without researching it for themselves, deserves to lose it.

  138. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:50 pm

    I just get the feeling Chi is trying to add some balance to the overall picture.

    I really enjoy seeing all sides. It is a mystery to me. I’m 60, and nothing that I think is going to happen – happens.

  139. Firestormik says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:00 pm

    re: 3b says:

    Like Toyota back in the day, they kept at it until they got it right
    ——————————-
    You might be right. As for me, I would never touch the previous gen of Sonata. The current one and its 09 upgrade is perfect for the price.

    Funniest thing:

    IRVINE, Calif., April 1 /PRNewswire/ — Kia Motors America (KMA) today
    announced March sales of 24,724 units, an increase of 12 percent from the
    previous month, and year-to-date sales of 68,893 total units, up 1 percent
    over the same period last year. March sales were led by Sorento and Sedona,
    posting 57.8-percent and 61.7-percent increases respectively. The Soul, Kia’s
    all-new and uniquely styled compact with myriad personalization options that
    began arriving in dealerships in February, also recorded strong sales of 1,246
    units.

  140. chicagofinance says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:04 pm

    BC Bob says:
    May 2, 2009 at 1:35 pm
    Do you think fundamentals have anything to do with it?

    Bost: ahem….focusing on the word “anything”…….French Connection UK yeah……

    Didn’t you see the above I-Bond article? Think about it. It is not the answer, but it is a small example of a broad effect……you give people a quad shot of espresso and mix it half/half with sugar then tell them to go sit in a chair….it doesn’t necessarily work…even if there was a theoretical and logical explanation that it should…

  141. Victorian says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:04 pm

    Chi,

    No disrespect, but this is a blog and trying to suppress anyone’s opinion here runs counter to the principles of a blog. No one except the owner of the blog has that right and if Grim feels that we should not be discussing the stock market, I am sure that he will let us know. (In fact, he had mentioned adding disclaimers, and everyone over here did so, and they were quite funny :) )

    When you proclaim that BC’s and Clot’s opinions are “crap”, you are taking the other side and run the danger that someone might take the opposite position based on your opinion.

    I, for one, would appreciate it if you feel that their opinions are “crap”, you counter it with yours in a respectful fashion. Sorry, but you do include a lot of profanities when trying to debate a person’s position (William Black, Simon Johnson etc. for example) and accuse them of talking their book. Everybody talks their book but the key is to find out if their book makes sense or not.

  142. Sean says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:19 pm

    Chi and Bob – different philosophers both beating on the same dead horse.

    “The Golden Era of financial services is over” – Ken Lewis

  143. A.West says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:28 pm

    Chifi,
    The govt is full of Keynesians. They offer 0% interest because they don’t want Americans to save. Keynes tells them that’s bad for the economy, and they know that savings works against their attempts to manipulate the GDP numbers.
    How long can economic insanity last before the consequences become impossible to cover up? We’re starting to find out.

  144. Sean says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:29 pm

    Since bi is unable to find a single economist to support his theory that the recession is over I will help him with a crutch.

    ECRI says “an end the US recession is now in clear sight”

    Gauge of future US economic growth at 13-wk high-ECRI
    NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) – A weekly measure of U.S. future economic growth rose along with its annualized growth rate, indicating imminent economic recovery, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index ticked up to a 13-week high of 107.7 for the week ending April 24 from 107.2 in the previous week. The index’s annualized growth rate also climbed to minus 17.4 percent from the prior week’s rate of minus 18.6 percent. “With the level of the WLI in an upswing for seven weeks now, an end to the U.S. recession is now in clear sight,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. The index level rose because of lower interest rates and higher commodity prices and was partly offset by lower stock prices, Achuthan said.

    My comment – Only problem with this analysis is that economic activity is still down 25% from the 143.7 peak ECRI reported in June 2007. We still have a long way to go to be back in the races again.

  145. Sean says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    Horse named “West Side Bernie”
    has allot of bets on him right now at the Derby. Owner is from Rumson and Trainer is from Farmingdale.

    http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/contenders/west-side-bernie

  146. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:47 pm

    http://www.pgatour.com/r/leaderboard/

    Sean – This is what I’m watching this W/E. Tiger is right there – after 5.

  147. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:49 pm

    #145 sean: You are not keeping up with bi. Late last week, he questioned that there was if there was a recession at all!!!.

    As far as your post, if the recession is officially going to be over on the next few months, as this group indicates, well like I have been saying, than what?

    A recession being officially over (whatever that means),means nothing with unemployment still rising (600k+) a month, no end in sight,and declining wages.

  148. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:52 pm

    You might be right. As for me, I would never touch the previous gen of Sonata. The current one and its 09 upgrade is perfect for the price.

    Any thoughts on the Santa Fe?

  149. chicagofinance says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:10 pm

    Victorian says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:04 pm
    Chi, No disrespect, but this is a blog and trying to suppress anyone’s opinion here runs counter to the principles of a blog.

    Vic: Please understand my comments in context. I “know” bost & clot in a blog sense for several years (pathetic I know), and have met each personally once. I think they understand that I do not disagree with them, but rather, take issue with dispensing such opinions, casually in the threads, SPECIFICALLY IN THAT MANNER.

    I have a long standing practice of harassing people that spit out hoards of investment opinions here without qualifying their statements. I think in the same sense that you may have misconstued the intent of my comments, someone else may not understand both bost, clot & albani’s approaches either.

    There are a lot of lurkers here, and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone took a stated opinion here and jumped on a trade.

    All I request is something along the lines “I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night” or something….

  150. Sean says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    3b – “well like I have been saying, then what?”

    The bond markets are now pricing in a real economic recovery with very slow growth and near zero inflation for the foreseeable future.

    However commodity investors are pricing in negative real growth right around the corner in the 1st qt.

    Who is going to be correct?

    Ye place yer bets and Ye take yer chances.

  151. safeashouses says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:15 pm

    #149 3b

    I have a 07 Santa Fe SE. I think it’s great. V6 with 18″ wheels. I average 20 mpg driving in a mix of county roads, through down towns, and rt 1. On highway trips I get 25 mpg. Very good handling, smooth ride, comfortable seats. Lots of storage and safety features. It’s great at going up and down hills.

    If you get a Santa FE I would get an SE over the GLS. the GLS gets maybe 1 or 2 mpg better than the SE, but the SE has larger wheels, a V6 instead of a 4 cylinder (try merging on a NJ highway with a 4 cylinder), and has some other bling bling.

  152. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    #152 sean: Did’t we already pass the 1st quarter? Did I miss something? Do you mean the 2nd quarter?

    Economic recovery with very slow growth,and zero inflation, neagtive real growth ,where does this leav real estate in this environment in our area.

    Continued down, because IMO either scenario works well for real estate.

  153. BC Bob says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    Chi,

    It’s a retracement until it is not. With all the crap on this site, it’s actually shocking, rather comical, that you demand a disclaimer regarding a damn retracemnt comment. It’s trading/investing 101. I learned it as a frosh in HS. Thankfully, I did not make a comment about Elliot Wave. Right now, today, if it’s not a retracement what is it?

    You are damn quick to call out others. Let’s hear what the fcuk you have to say. In addition to this, name one stock market, commodity market, or currency market that has had a move of 50-60% that has not included periods of retracements? Are you insinuating peak to trough, trough to peak, in a straight line?

    Crap? Why doesn’t everybody who got their brains kicked in, holding financials, sue the CEO’s for outright fraud.

    No disclaimer required regarding fraud.

  154. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:26 pm

    #152 safe: Thanks for the information, glad you are satisfied with it. I am between the Santa Fe and Kia Sportage. I was looking at a late model Rav-4, but 16k for a vehicle with 60-70K miles on it, Toyota or not, is not worth it. I bought a Highlander new in 2007 and love it.

    My son has my old car (away at college), and the 1 car household thing is not working.

    This vehicle will also be used my my Daughter, so safety is a real concern.

    Starting to get the old analysis by paralysis in doing the research.

  155. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    #152 safe: Any problems with the gad pedals on the Santa Fe. Some reviews I read had mentioned that.

  156. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:29 pm

    #153 3b:Continued down, because IMO either scenario works well for real estate.

    I should have said IMO either scenario does not work well for real estate.

  157. Sean says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    re#153 3b – forward looking 1st qt 2010, bonds are pricing in long term slow growth, and commodities are pricing in inflation coming right around the corner.

    As far as Real estate it is officially passé, the Senate did not pass the cram down legislation on Thursday, in fact 11 Democrats including the newly minted one from PA – Arlen Specter crossed the isle and voted with the Republicans to quash it.

    Also the US House has already given up for 2009, there will be no massive re-regulation of banking this year.

    As for the Messiah of change? He has already started changing the subject.

  158. Firestormik says:
    May 2, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    3b says:

    Any thoughts on the Santa Fe?
    —————————-
    I did some research on it (the prevoius gen) when I was shopping around in Dec 05. I would buy it, but I didn’t like the design.
    Latest generation of Santa Fe seems like even better.
    http://www.strategicvision.com/auto_segmentwinners.php?year=2008&award=TQA&seg=42

    Check hyundai-forums.com for any promlems\recalls before you buy

  159. safeashouses says:
    May 2, 2009 at 4:12 pm

    #156 3b

    I haven’t had any problems with the gas or brake pedals.

    I looked at the Saturn VUE and thought the Santa Fe had much better acceleration and a better ride. I test drove a Murano, but the Murano was twice the price and smaller. The Murano handled better and was more luxurious, but was way too pricey for me. The Rogue was too small. The Ford Edge was about 8k more than the Santa Fe at the time, so I didn’t look at it.

    The Santa Fe handles like a car. I think it’s a pretty good deal.

  160. garageland says:
    May 2, 2009 at 4:35 pm

    Love my Santa Fe . . . had it for six years with no problems. Also have the Hyundai Entourage van (was safest minivan that year according to Consumer Reports) . . . way better deal (and more van) than Toyota and Honda. Also, recently had great experience at the dealership for service — an airbag light was on . . .they were really accommodating and had car washed for free.

  161. cobbler says:
    May 2, 2009 at 4:47 pm

    Historically, Hyundai and Kia cars had the worst resale values (on par with Chrysler); don’t know how much they are recovering in light of the clearly improved – at least initial – quality of the last few model years. I still think that the Koreans’ sales in the last couple of quarters were artificially boosted by their promise to buy the vehicle back if the owner loses a job. Maybe though I am biased here – had an absolutely terrible experience with buying a 1998 Sonata in 2000 with 35 K miles; spent ~5K in 3 years on fixing it and finally got rid of it in 2003. [From curiosity, when I had an unlimited Carfax for a month last fall, I ran a check on its VIN # – the car changed 5 owners since 2003…]

  162. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 4:53 pm

    #158 sean:As far as Real estate it is officially passé

    What about as far as prices in our area?? IMO we are in for more significant declines over the next 12 months.

  163. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 4:54 pm

    #162 cobbler: Not concerned about resal value, as I plan to run it until it dies.

    Looking for safety and reliability.

  164. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 4:58 pm

    #160/161: What are your thoughts on how many miles are on the car. I have a mental block with that, how much is too much 50-60K?

  165. safeashouses says:
    May 2, 2009 at 5:01 pm

    #164 3b

    How old is the car?

    I bought mine brand new in Dec 08. It was a leftover 07, so I got it for dealer invoice. I think the Santa Fe went through a big change for the 07 models

  166. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 5:10 pm

    #166 safe: I am looking at 2005-06 models. ( I am cheap, sorry).

    The 2005 has 56K miles, asking $9900 however after reading cobbler’s above post, I noticed on the car fax that the vehicle has had 5 owners.

    I e-mailed th dealer and asked for a copy of the car fax, not spending $29 on it myself.

    I thought I would offer 7k and come up to around 8K. (The 5 owner thing has me concerned however).

    Could also get a 2008 Kia Sportage for 14K, with 10k miles on it, down from 16k;the best the dealer will do, even with paying cash.

  167. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 5:19 pm

    #158 sean:As for the Messiah of change? He has already started changing the subject.

    Alot of his disciples are going to be bitterly disappointed.

    Change you can believe in? Nah, more of the same, just as arrogant as Bush, a little better spoken ( not saying much), and a little more sophisicated;thats about it.

  168. Sean says:
    May 2, 2009 at 5:22 pm

    re# 163 – “What about as far as prices in our area?? IMO we are in for more significant declines over the next 12 months.”

    My Ouija board says everywhere but River Edge. :)

  169. morpheus says:
    May 2, 2009 at 5:25 pm

    #126:

    But you didn’t later hear what the seller said: she wanted $350K for that POS.

    Agreed that they will not get more than $200K for that property.

    My commments about banks not lending are my observations gleaned from this blog. Of course I could be wrong.

    Couldn’t tell if you were refering to seller getting $200K or my ability to get a loan. I assume that you were refering to the seller. If you were referring to me: don’t judge a book by its cover.

    what a small F**King world.

  170. morpheus says:
    May 2, 2009 at 5:50 pm

    Kim at #126:
    I am also somewhat disapointed that you did not note the kitty litter on the floor of the basement and the moisture in the basement—water seepage perhaps?

    the roof over the front porch will have to be replaced.

    The “siding” ( if you could call it that) is practically falling apart and will have to be replaced.

    The interior is just the obvious.

    I did not see any leaks in the attic, but I was in a rush.

  171. Firestormik says:
    May 2, 2009 at 6:10 pm

    3b:
    I would try to call Hyundai and nicely ask them for the car maintenance history. 5 owners in 5 years – it’s just crazy.

  172. cobbler says:
    May 2, 2009 at 6:31 pm

    [167} 3b
    If there were 5 actual owners, I’d absolutely stay away, thing really falling apart on them. Look again at the carfax, it might have listed as owners an original dealer, than the leasing company, then the auction, then the dealer now owning it – so it actually could have been 1 or 2 people driving it.

  173. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:41 pm

    #169 Sean: I would expect nothing less in my lace curtain town.

  174. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    #173 cobbler:it might have listed as owners an original dealer, than the leasing company, then the auction, then the dealer now owning it – so it actually could have been 1 or 2 people driving it.

    That is what I was thinking. will definitely check the carfax. Thanks.

  175. safeashouses says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    #167 3b

    I think there was a big jump in safety and reliability from the 05 to the 07 Santa Fe.

    Also I sat in a kia and thought it was kind of tinny compared to a Hyundai, kind of like Hyundai’s were in the early 90’s.

    Does your dealer have any high mileage 07 Santa Fe?

  176. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:49 pm

    Hyundai? I own an Elantra. Bought it new in 2001. I only have 43,000 miles on it – replaced the radiator and some coil-looking part that broke and made it overheat. Other than that, no problems.

    Oh, the headlights are a bummer to change out. (One side – can’t remember which.) But anyway, had to take it to a shop to have it done.

  177. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:58 pm

    http://www.fresnobee.com/170/story/1371635.html

    This guy (who I listen too frequently on the radio and really knows the local market) says our home prices will rebound 30% in the spring.

    He says the “14 to 18-month supply of unsold houses has fallen to two or three months with many properties receiving multiple offers.”

    “Meanwhile, foreclosures will remain high, but will likely be parceled out over two years without creating a huge wave that will swamp the market.”

  178. Susan says:
    May 2, 2009 at 7:59 pm

    Someone will come along and think its just perfect!

  179. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 8:03 pm

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/pressReleases/idUKTRE5412OP20090502

    “Obama says financial sector to shrink”

    “The financial sector will make up a smaller part of the U.S. economy in the future as new regulations clamp down on “massive risk-taking” President Barack Obama said in an interview published on Saturday.’

  180. yikes says:
    May 2, 2009 at 8:24 pm

    A.West says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:34 am

    I’d like the combination of full free open immigration combined with the abolition of all welfare and state support.

    why can’t we keep immigration how it is and set a date on welfare and state support for like jan. 1 2015?

  181. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    May 2, 2009 at 8:49 pm

    [168] 3b

    His disciples will not be disappointed. They knew that they would be thrown under the bus, and were happy to assume the position.

    Months before the election, I told uber-liberal friends and family that this would be the case, that they should know that The One would back down on many of the positions that they thought he promised and that they cherished.

    Their response? Basically, it was ‘okay with us as long as Bush is gone.’

  182. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 8:58 pm

    #178 cindy: He sounds contradictory and delusional simultaneously.

    Is he factoring in empolyment, or should I say unemployment?

  183. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:01 pm

    #176 safe:Does your dealer have any high mileage 07 Santa Fe?

    I am uncomfortable with high mileage cars, define high mileage for an 07?

  184. 3b says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:02 pm

    #182 nom:The One would back down on many of the positions that they thought he promised and that they cherished.

    Than they were idiots for voting for him, and their thought prcess is lacking.

  185. sas says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:26 pm

    “No need to renegotiate NAFTA to improve it: USTR”
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_2_MOLT/idUKTRE53J68U20090420

    now, US & Obama admin will move forward with pending so called free trade agreements with with Colombia, Panama and South Korea.

    God Bless the USA & LBJ
    SAS

  186. safeashouses says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:27 pm

    #184 3b

    Global Hyundai in North Plainfield has an SE with 24,000 miles for 17,600. I get my car serviced there. For me high mileage is 15k+ a year. I only drive about 9k miles a year.

    I bought mine from Brad Benson in Monmouth Junction. Try giving them a call to see if they have any in stock.

  187. sas says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:38 pm

    “US & Obama admin will move forward with pending so called free trade agreements with with Colombia”

    this should help the cocaine trade, illgal cigarette trade, & money-laundering operations.

    It will be interesting to see new methodology tactics to legitimizes the origins of “black” wealth, so as to ward off oversight and investigation.

    As far as I know, the US dollar is still the #1 currency in the black economy. yes, euros come in handy, but its not first choice.

    SAS

  188. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:48 pm

    3b (183)
    “He sounds contradictory and delusional simultaneously.”

    Hey, don’t think I wasn’t surprised to read it as well. One of the reasons I wanted to post it is that I have been quoting things this guy has said for more than a year here. He is the guy who correctly said the banks didn’t have the personnel to handle to foreclosures, he is the one who pointed out that the banks were losing out as they allowed offers to come in lower each month until they finally acted. He is the same radio personality that has conferenced with untold numbers re: short sales etc. He does know this market.

    Recently, Fresno was named the 5th largest city in the state. Because our house prices are lower than say LA, and SF – all I can think is that people are moving here and he feels there will be demand.

    We are essentially an agricultural-based economy but pretty diversified too. New solar industry jobs? Talk of shovel-ready high speed rail? I don’t know.

    I have been thinking about jobs a lot lately. I recently watched a BRITE conference tape with Umair Haque where he discusses the fact that we have gone from one bubble to the next for the last 20 years and now there is no easy path to growth. If you are interested, I could post the link.

  189. bi says:
    May 2, 2009 at 9:56 pm

    In his attempt to rev up the party faithful, Romney said the GOP fight to regain power is a continuation of the U.S. war of independence, casting the Democrats as the loyalists and Republicans as the patriots.

    “We are the party of the revolutionaries. They’re the party of the monarchists,” he said. “They are the party that believes government knows best and that government is the sovereign.

    “And we are the party that believes the people and free people and people pursuing their own dreams are what make America the strongest nation and most powerful nation on earth…and we are going to continue to be revolutionaries,” he said.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/05/02/gop-leaders-begin-outreach-effort-energize-party/

  190. sas says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:00 pm

    “Romney”

    ha ha..
    what a fkn loser.

    SAS

  191. bi says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:08 pm

    108#, frank, per your link 4 weeks ago, soros said commercial real estate would be down anohter 30%. which one will get smoked? im confused.

    >SRS buyers get smoked…

    “REITs’ Rise Sets Back Day Traders”

  192. bi says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:14 pm

    145, sean, you missed my post last thursday. one economist/fund manager called chris something on bloomberg radio said he thought the recession was ending by the end of april – one month behind me.

    >Sean says:
    May 2, 2009 at 2:29 pm
    Since bi is unable to find a single economist to support his theory that the recession is over I will help him with a crutch.

  193. bi says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:17 pm

    193#, one more thought. even if i couldn’t find any economist to support my prediction. so what? if the recession was ending in this season, does it mean i beat all economists?

  194. bi says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:35 pm

    Jack Kemp, Former GOP VP Candidate and Quarterback, Dies at 73

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518721,00.html

  195. kettle1 says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:38 pm

    Feds Seize The Silverton, The Nation’s Largest Bank of Banks

    This afternoon Federal banking authorities seized Silverton Bank, the Atlanta-based bank for banks. The troubled bank had already been subject to government censure, prohibited from paying dividends, paying interest on its debt or issuing new debt without prior consent from the Federal Reserve. The seizure is bad news for Silverton’s shareholder base, comprised entirely of its customer banks. More than 1,500 banks across the country are Silverton customers, and 400 hundred of those are shareholders. The bank provides banks, especially community banks, with credit lines and other back-office services. It is the largest bankers’ bank in the country.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/feds-seize-atlantas-silverton-bank-2009-5

  196. Cindy says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:40 pm

    Chicago & Grim – Nuances of “Nudge.”

    http://www.vimeo.com/4364126

    Harvard Business School – Umair Haque at a BRITE conference. 20 minutes when you have the time…Business needs behavioral innovation:
    stewardship
    quardianship
    trusteeship
    leadership
    partnership

    Very thought provoking.

  197. kettle1 says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:45 pm

    Towering Vacancies: Office Market Hits the Skids

    When the housing market began collapsing across the developed world, commercial real estate remained a bastion for builders. But now the global recession is dragging it down, too. Central business districts that only a year ago were crowded with construction projects are emptying out as office tenants cut staff and operations. Building values are sinking, while delinquencies on securitized loans have tripled in the past six months. The abrupt downturn in commercial real estate is punishing cities as varied as Detroit, Dallas, and Hartford, where downtown office vacancy rates top 20%. Unoccupied space is piling up quickly in San Antonio, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and San Jose. Outside the U.S., high-profile towers have been halted everywhere from Dubai to Santiago, Chile.

    New York, though, may be the epicenter of the bust. The world’s biggest office market, with roughly 350 million square feet of floor space, New York added 2.9 million square feet of vacant property in 2009’s first quarter alone — more than the entire Empire State Building. In that same period, calculates commercial real estate brokerage CB Richard Ellis, rents slid 14.6% to an average of $57.35 per square foot, the largest quarterly drop on record. At 8.5%, New York’s office vacancy rate is still well under the U.S. average of 14.7%. But with virtually no demand for new space, that percentage is likely to hit double digits within months, putting New York’s recovery well behind that of cities such as London, where some analysts and investors think the worst may be over.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20090430/bs_bw/apr2009db20090429355301

  198. cheap portable oxygen tank says:
    May 2, 2009 at 10:54 pm

    Important info and thanks for posting. Adding your blog to my rss feeder. Joe

  199. xmonger says:
    May 2, 2009 at 11:59 pm

    [198] NYC = Epic Fail

    I fully expect to be making trinkets for export to China 10 years from now.

  200. SG says:
    May 3, 2009 at 7:12 am

    Cindy: Umair Haque: Nothing new, New Bottle Old Wine.

    He has primarily combined the latest fad word “Behaviourial” with “Innovation”. With popularity of folks like Shiller, it all would make sense now. Duh !!!

    The matra for todays business is “Back to Basic”. The buyers are scared psychologically, Make sure whatever you sell, has clear ROI. The days of buying based on future expectations are over. For example, buying that biggest house you can afford as it will grow in value. That is over. Now it is what do you need to meet your basic housing need. You can not innovate your way to that unless it is some kind of breakthrough. Most innovations require R&D money which will be questioned.

    The guy talks about Google as best innovation since slice bread. Will see about that in 10 years.

  201. SG says:
    May 3, 2009 at 7:17 am

    Today is sad day, one of my political Hero, Jack Camp passed away.

    I have worked with him briefly, and to date that has been my best experience. I could feel the energy whenever he lead meetings. To date he remains one of my great role model.

  203. Essex says:
    May 3, 2009 at 7:39 am

    203! Welcome back to the seventies!!

  204. SG says:
    May 3, 2009 at 7:52 am

    Your house’s true value

    Much has changed since the booming housing market of a few years ago, when it seemed the only thing that killed a deal was getting beat by a better offer. But with a renewed urgency placed on sound financial fundamentals, accountability and regulation, appraisals have taken center stage in the home-buying and refinancing markets.

    Muscella also cautions her clients that overpricing in today’s market is risky. “When we went from that really big sellers’ market to this buyers’ market, sellers still wanted top dollar. Now, because appraisals are what they are, sellers are more realistic.”

    Appraisers have taken much of the blame when it comes to the overinflated prices fueling the housing crisis. To combat this, new regulations are being handed down. One of those took effect April 1. Known as the Market Conditions Addendum, it’s being required by most lenders and requires that appraisers supply additional trend data and statistics on nearby sales and pending sales when appraising a home.

  205. Clotpoll says:
    May 3, 2009 at 7:59 am

    My stock picks and short recommendations are for entertainment only. At this blog, bi is the only person one should look to for investment advice.

  206. SG says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:03 am

    Buyers And Sellers May Not Agree On Price Of Illiquid Assets

    New York-based SecondMarket, an online trading platform for illiquid assets, has seen nearly 500 buyers sign up since sellers began listing blocks of collateralized debt obligations, unsecuritized loans and mortgage securities – totaling less than $10 million apiece – earlier this month.

    Quotes sometimes put the bid and ask prices on these assets higher than what the market indicates. But there is still a huge mismatch between price expectations. As a result, a transaction has yet to be executed on SecondMarket, raising the prospect of holders being stuck with these assets unless they’re willing to significantly lower prices.

    Sellers, on the other hand, are hesitant to book such low prices before the U.S. Treasury Department’s Public-Private Investment Program, or PPIP, gets underway. The program will provide attractive financing to potential buyers of toxic assets currently stuck on bank books. Sellers hope that the government initiatives will generate fresh liquidity and in turn lead to higher valuations on these assets.

    Holders willing to sell ahead of PPIP “need the money,” Silbert said.

    Even so, it’s getting the ball rolling on price discovery of these hard-to-value assets.

    “Potential buyers want to see what other people are paying for these assets,” said Freud.

  207. SG says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:09 am


    Home sellers seek help from a saint

    After three real estate agents, two price reductions and nearly a year with no offers on their town house in Las Vegas, George and Katherine Grodin turned to a higher power for help.

    They bought a 4-inch plastic figurine of St. Joseph — the patron saint of home and employment — and placed it upside down in their patio with hopes of breaking their home-selling slump.

  208. Clotpoll says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:11 am

    Cindy (189)-

    From what I’ve gleaned from your posts about your local RE market, it seems as though Mr. Market has won in Fresno, and that gubmint manipulation has had little-to-no effect, as the trouble started too early and accelerated too rapidly to allow significant intervention.

    Now, much like burned land after a raging forest fire, the regeneration seems to have begun. Too bad TPTB can’t take a look at the markets that busted out quickly and learn from them.

    Oh…that’s right…they can’t. Letting the market run its course means gazillions more in MBS are worthless, which means our zombie banks are actually insolvent. Can’t let the sheeple figure that one out!

  209. afe says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:33 am

    (Was also listed for lease, leased for $2,800/mo on 11/25/2008).

    MLS# 2678967
    Listed: 5/1/2009
    OLP: $519,000

    Is it just me or does 2800 for this place seem high? Was it actually leased for that or that was asking rent?

  210. Cindy says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:42 am

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/02/AR2009050202207.html?hpid=topnews

    SG (201) – “Nothing new, New Bottle Old Wine”

    It’s all new to me. Thanks for clarifying. Another article, “Harness the Value of Scarcity” Cramm – just seems like common sense. As we focus our intentions, we get more value for our efforts.

    I am reading employment articles these days because I worry cap and trade will further exasperate a problem of decreased spending as consumers must choose between – say – going out once a week or paying more for gas and energy.

    Also, here is an article (up top) “U.S. Worker’s Wages Stagnate as Firms Rush to Slash Costs.”

    “Once you knock down wage growth, it will take substantial change in employment to move it again…”

    So we are looking at a weak recovery with reduced incomes at the onset. How are these wages ever going to come back? No raises for years now… and years to come.

    Just looking for answers – trying to seek solutions for hard problems – What else is new…(Clot – don’t laugh at me!)

  211. BC Bob says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:45 am

    “145, sean, you missed my post last thursday. one economist/fund manager called chris something on bloomberg radio said he thought the recession was ending by the end of april – one month behind me.”

    Chi,

    Patiently waiting for your comment regarding the above along with the possible ramifications for the lurkers.

  212. Cindy says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:46 am

    (209) Clot – “Mr. Market has won in Fresno.” I think you have something there. The timing was so ahead of everything, there was no time for interventions. Folks went into foreclosure – Bam.

    I think Maaske’s 30% by spring is too optimistic. He must know something about the shadow inventory in our area, though. But as unemployment spreads, his numbers may be out of whack.

  213. Clotpoll says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:52 am

    Cindy (213)-

    I think the flaw in his assumption is that the banks will intelligently handle their REO inventory.

    I can guarantee you that will not happen.

  214. Clotpoll says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:54 am

    …although bulldozing brand-new houses vs remediating code violations is a fabulous display of a sick sort of genius.

  215. Cindy says:
    May 3, 2009 at 9:01 am

    (215) Clot – I think the genius there is to have strict laws regarding the upkeep of REO properties. Either the bank keeps them up so they are marketable or…..the bank chooses to handle the property in an alternative fashion.

  216. Cindy says:
    May 3, 2009 at 9:06 am

    SG – My over-riding worry is that the American consumer has turned on a dime; retrenched, started saving and paying off debt… even as their incomes have been reduced. As they figure out what they can live without, spending won’t return any time soon.

    Meanwhile, we are about to be hit with cap and trade and higher taxes. Can someone explain to me how this isn’t going to deteriorate the employment picture even further?

  217. Cindy says:
    May 3, 2009 at 9:08 am

    Clot – The $10,000 state credit for new construction has also helped to reduce that inventory. They were trying to compete with foreclosures and running into trouble. So that overhang is also under control.

    We will have to wait the year to see if he is on the something…

  218. Frank says:
    May 3, 2009 at 9:24 am

    In NJ, RE prices seem to on the rise first time in years, median list price jumped to 417K from 411K last week. Did we hit a bottom?

  219. sas says:
    May 3, 2009 at 9:50 am

    “Jack Camp”

    i had a few run in with ol Kemp in DC.
    lets just say, he had many faces.

    He would want you to do one thing for him, and simultaneously set up a counter team to make sure you didn’t succeed in doing what he just asked you to do. i.e trying to make things look legit when they were not.

    then again, in DC thats the name of the game and Kemp just played the game like he did foosball. I’m just a little bitter cause he burned me and got the best of me more than once.

    oh well,
    SAS

  220. ruggles says:
    May 3, 2009 at 9:50 am

    219- thats because I just listed my house for $19 million.

  221. sas says:
    May 3, 2009 at 9:51 am

    interesting article out of the Denver wire:

    “Aurora hit hard by recession
    Along the Front Range, no ZIP code has been hit harder by the twin blows of foreclosure and unemployment”
    http://www.denverpost.com/ci_12281977

    SAS

  222. safeashouses says:
    May 3, 2009 at 10:11 am

    #21 ruggles,

    That’s too bad. I only look at houses that list t over 20 million.

  223. bi says:
    May 3, 2009 at 10:12 am

    for the record, i don’t recommend any securities except this: don’t hold volatile ultrashorts (2x and up) such as sas, skf and faz for more than 1 week. the volatilty will eat you up.

  224. bi says:
    May 3, 2009 at 10:13 am

    sas -> SRS. sorry SAS.

  225. BC Bob says:
    May 3, 2009 at 10:15 am

    “In NJ, RE prices seem to on the rise first time in years, median list price jumped to 417K from 411K last week. Did we hit a bottom?”

    Frank,

    How could we have hit bottom, after all we never topped out.

  226. 3b says:
    May 3, 2009 at 10:18 am

    #189 CINDY: Understood. I just cannot see an increase in prices of 30% in such a short period of time, with all the funny money gone.

  227. 3b says:
    May 3, 2009 at 10:23 am

    #219 frank:In NJ, RE prices seem to on the rise first time in years

    I thought they never fell. Make up your mind.

  228. BC Bob says:
    May 3, 2009 at 10:34 am

    Don’t worry, stabilizing is the new buzz word;

    “An analysis of 2008 foreclosure activity by The Record revealed that lenders were at various stages of retaking nearly 370 homes in upper-income towns, where the typical single-family home sold for more than $620,000 in 2007. That was up 177 percent from about 130 cases in 2007 — at a time when foreclosure activity overall throughout Bergen and Passaic counties doubled. And rising jobless numbers means foreclosures are likely to increase in the months to come.”

    “One Ridgewood homeowner, for example, owes more than $600,000 on a mortgage and was recently offered $430,000 for the house. The seller is waiting to see if the bank will go along with the deal, Stemple said.”

    http://www.northjersey.com/business/realestate/Even_affluent_towns_see_rise_in_foreclosures.html

  229. Jill says:
    May 3, 2009 at 10:50 am

    SG, perhaps it would be a better tribute to your “hero” if you knew his last name. It’s “Kemp”, not “Camp.”

  230. Cindy says:
    May 3, 2009 at 11:00 am

    (227) 3b – Clot and I are agreeing with you @ 213/214.

  231. chicagofinance says:
    May 3, 2009 at 11:04 am

    BC Bob says:
    May 3, 2009 at 8:45 am
    “145, sean, you missed my post last thursday. one economist/fund manager called chris something on bloomberg radio said he thought the recession was ending by the end of april – one month behind me.” Chi, Patiently waiting for your comment regarding the above along with the possible ramifications for the lurkers.

    Bost: Did you read my comment to Vic? I am not agreeing or disagreeing with you. I just do not support throwing an idea out there as if it is common sense, as both clot and you did. You also have to bear in mind that from my perspective, your opinion and clot’s opinion are held in higher regard. I attempted to fist you in the anus because you are credible. I would consider it a complement.

    That said, just in the same manner that clot views the economy through his job, I am guessing that you view pricing action through the prism that you are most familiar, which is Forex. So I understand that much of what you see working day-to-day in your shop is going to assist you in building an opinion about stuff….fair enough…

    You want my opinion…..as a fundamental guy, the broken record is always….RISK–> REWARD….well one of the completely new themes I’ve heard kicked around is not just a 2D graph (risk/x – return/y, but rather a 3D one……what is the Z-axis? Liquidity. So when we saw everything crash land over the last 9 months, we viewed just as a much a “liquidity” event as everything else.

    What is my point? (stop laughing…or cursing)

    In the same way that the market funneled almost straight down as liquidity was drained, the reverse can also occur / may be in the process of occurring.

    If you’ve noticed, the last two market downdrafts have commenced right after the mid-quarter point when the hedgies began to act on their redemptions. So other than the October barf, we had the Nov 15 to Thanksgiving bowel cleanse, and the February 15th to early March colostomy bag removal. If this “liquidity” trend is worth noting, then you could argue that you would be holding your breath coming up on May 15th. Otherwise, the main driver right now is the “return to liquidity” trade leading into mid-May. Note, it is a broad opinion and I am not trading actively off of it. Also, I think hedgie redemptions are likely slowing, because #1 it is mostly done; #2 the weakest of the stronger hands are out; #3 the fear is transition to being out of an updraft as opposed to being stuck in a downdraft…..

  232. How I Lost Thirty Pounds in Thirty Days says:
    May 3, 2009 at 3:08 pm

    Hi, nice post. I have been wondering about this topic,so thanks for writing. I’ll certainly be subscribing to your posts.

  233. Outofstater says:
    May 3, 2009 at 3:18 pm

    232 Okay, that’s it, I’m calling my derriere doc tomorrow to schedule a colonoscopy and no, I’m not trying to be approved for a loan.

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