July S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index

The S&P CS HPI is due out at 9am this morning. Post will become updated as information becomes available.

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in U.S. Probably Fell at Slower Pace, Confidence Up

Home values in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas probably decreased at a slower pace and consumer confidence climbed, signs the recession is easing as the real- estate crisis dissipates, economists said before reports today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 16.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the smallest drop in almost a year, according to the median forecast of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A report from the Conference Board may show confidence rose in August for the first time in three months.

The S&P/Case-Shiller figures are due at 9 a.m. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from declines of 15.7 percent to 17.1 percent. Year-over-year records for the gauge, which was down 17.1 percent in May from a year earlier, began in 2001, and the measure has fallen every month since January 2007.

This entry was posted in Economics, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

111 Responses to July S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index

  1. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Double-Dip Threatens Housing Recovery

    While investors are on the lookout for a double-dip recession, they also might want to brace for a double-dip in home prices.

    The most closely watched home-price gauges, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller indexes, are updated Tuesday morning. Economists estimate the Case-Shiller 20-city index was down 16.4% in June from a year ago, a slight improvement over May’s 17.1% decline.

    On a month-to-month basis, the 20-city index rose 0.5% in May, the first such gain in nearly three years, a milestone that impressed even hardened housing observers. And Case-Shiller seemed to bottom well before May. The year-over-year change in the index, which should weed out seasonal issues, has improved steadily since January.

    Though home prices are still in a deep rut, prices can lag behind home building and home buying, which have been improving lately. A recovery in home prices would help consumers feel richer and stem losses on bank balance sheets from bad mortgage bets — which can ultimately help lead to a broader economic recovery.

    A lasting rebound in Case-Shiller indexes could be particularly meaningful because they turned negative earlier and dove deeper than other measures.

    But the recent Case-Shiller improvement could be fleeting. One big problem is in the higher end of the housing market, where there haven’t been as many distressed sales as in the lower end, suggesting prices haven’t fully corrected.

  2. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Obama to Reappoint Bernanke as Fed Chief

    President Barack Obama will nominate Ben Bernanke to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, keeping him on the job of guiding the world’s largest economy out of its deepest downturn since the Great Depression.

    Obama will make the announcement in Massachusetts with Bernanke at his side and will praise Bernanke’s “bold actions” to save the financial system from collapse, a senior administration official said on Monday.

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. Mortgage Holders Less Likely to Dig Out of Delinquency

    An increasing number of delinquent U.S. mortgage holders are failing to bring their loans current, in part because falling home prices leave borrowers owing more than their properties are worth, Fitch Ratings said today.

    The share of prime borrowers who catch up with late payments, known as the cure rate, fell to 6.6 percent from an average 45 percent from 2000 through 2006, the New York-based ratings company said in a report. The cure rate for Alt-A mortgages declined to 4.3 percent and for subprime loans it fell to 5.3 percent. About 85 percent of the mortgages surveyed were for $417,000 or more, said Fitch Managing Director Roelof Slump.

    “Prime had previously been distinct for its relatively high level of delinquency recoveries,” Slump said in a statement. “By this measure, prime is no longer significantly outperforming other sectors.”

  4. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Fewer Catching Up on Lapsed Mortgages

    Homeowners who fall behind on their mortgage payments have become much less likely to catch up again, a new study shows.

    The report from Fitch Ratings Ltd., a credit-rating firm, focuses on a plunge in the “cure rate” for mortgages that were packaged into securities. The study excludes loans guaranteed by government-backed agencies as well as those that weren’t bundled into securities. The cure rate is the portion of delinquent loans that return to current payment status each month.

    Fitch found that the cure rate for prime loans dropped to 6.6% as of July from an average of 45% for the years 2000 through 2006. For so-called Alt-A loans — a category between prime and subprime that typically involves borrowers who don’t fully document their income or assets — the cure rate has fallen to 4.3% from 30.2%. In the subprime category, the rate has declined to 5.3% from 19.4%.

    “The cure rates have really collapsed,” said Roelof Slump, a managing director at Fitch.

    Because borrowers are less willing or able to catch up on payments, foreclosures are likely to remain a big problem. Barclays Capital projects the number of foreclosed homes for sale will peak at 1.15 million in mid-2010, up from an estimated 688,000 as of July 1.

  5. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Will Congress Extend the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit?

    One big question looming over Congress when it returns from its summer recess next month: what to do about that $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers?

    Not only are some legislators (and real-estate industry lobbyists) already pushing hard for an extension of the tax credit, which will expire Nov. 30, but they’re also arguing that it should be increased, to $15,000, and expanded to all buyers, and not just those who are first-timers. The current $8,000 tax credit emerged in the stimulus legislation that Congress passed in February, replacing an existing $7,500 credit that had to be repaid over 15 years.

    “Congress is not going to endanger the fragile beginnings of a housing recovery by letting the credit lapse,” said Howard Glaser, a mortgage-industry consultant in Washington, in this story on July’s strong home sales figures in Saturday’s WSJ. The story noted that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who faces a tough election fight next year in Nevada, a state hard-hit by the housing bust, favors extending the credit.

  6. Yikes says:

    Still catching up on the comments from yesterday … sorry for your loss, BC. Hang in there.

  7. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Montville families stays off the grass due to high pesticide levels

    Bonnieview Lane in Montville is home to many children, although few are ever seen outside, even on the sunniest summer day.

    The swing sets are generally empty, and the plush green lawns are void of baseballs, footballs and hockey nets. There’s no laughter rising from the backyards, no shouts and shrieks of children at play.

    t’s been that way for six years.

    “You just don’t see them because nobody goes out on their lawns,” said Sharon Perrone, the mother of three young girls who say they can count the times they have walked in their yard.

    The neighborhood is poisoned — at least that’s the fear of the more than a dozen families who live in the center-hall, brick colonial homes built a decade ago on both sides of the hillside lane.

    Since they learned in 2003 that pesticide concentrations in the soil exceed state safety standards, most people living on Bonnieview Lane have tried to live their lives on the concrete part of their property and their wood decks. Many leave the neighborhood when they want to do something outdoors.

    “It would have been nice to have a pool, like we planned, and hang out back. But I go to my friends’ houses and swim at Lake Valhalla, where one of them is a member of the club there,” said Caitlan, Perrone’s 16-year-old daughter.

  8. Seneca says:

    Big Lots beats quarterly profit estimates.


    Green shoots. American companies have finally reigned in expenses. We can all expect more of the fine merchandise Big Lots sells to come at even better prices.

  9. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    How can you not have a double dip recession? Even if the recession ends, ie. a quarter or two of minimal GDP growth, absent additional stimulus there’s no impetus for future growth. You fall right back into the hole. Japan’s had a decade of it.

  10. SG says:

    How did a Realtor made conclusion that it was Sellers Market?
    The bill board on large building said “Sale, Sale, Sale. Everything must go.”

  11. yo'me says:

    Psychological Stimulant

    Winn-Dixie Q4 net income 17c vs 10c loss year ago
    Foster’s 2009 profit quadruples, boosted by beer
    Toyota reportedly to hike daily output for first time in 16 months
    Woolworths, Lowe’s team on Aussie retail venture
    Citi makes progress on foreclosure prevention
    Vodafone Group shares up 2.5%
    Staples fiscal Q2 sales $5.53B vs $5.07B
    L’Oreal upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies
    Gemalto posts forecast-beating profit
    Sanderson Farms Q3 earnings $2.09 vs 18C loss
    Burger King earnings per share rise to 43 cents

  12. yo'me says:

    PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — Guess what? The Federal Reserve has not only stopped depositing copious amounts of liquidity into the economy — it now appears to be in the process of making a sizable withdrawal.

    A close look at quantitative measures of monetary policy reveals a sudden change in trend. After growing at unprecedented rates for well over a year, these aggregates stopped rising several months ago and have since declined, according to data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    For example, the monetary base — the raw material for the money supply — has fallen at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8% from early April of this year through mid-August, after soaring at a 187% pace during the previous eight months.

    And after ballooning from $100 billion to nearly $1 trillion between September 2008 and mid-May, adjusted reserves have since declined at a 43% clip, to just over $800 billion.

    As a result, the Fed’s two measures of the money supply, M2 and MZM, have begun to contract. M2 has shrunk at a 3% pace since the middle of June, while MZM, the St. Louis Fed’s measure of liquid money, is down by 2% over the same period.


  13. Seneca RCG says:

    Grim [5]

    Re: Fewer catching up on failed mortgages

    >>Barclays Capital projects the number of foreclosed homes
    >> for sale will peak at 1.15 million in mid-2010, up from
    >> an estimated 688,000 as of July 1.

    This is a sign the economy is ready for full steam ahead. The projected number of foreclosures only (almost) doubled.
    So its a green shoot really. It could have tripled.

  14. yikes (7)-

    That show was all about trying to help people get out of debt and get current on obligations. What a silly concept! It’s smarter to pull an el foldo.

  15. NJGator says:

    Clot 16 – In the mode of Chifi, I will use a blackjack analogy. It’s like pulling a pair of 8’s when the dealer is showing a 10. You don’t split and double the money you have on the table, where your 2 18s will both lose to the dealer’s 20. You take the hit and bust and just lose your original wager. Unless you are lucky, and the table has surrender – then you can at least salvage half your original bet.

  16. Stu says:

    That’s my gator!

  17. NJGator says:

    Grim 9 – That must be in the less prestigious Towaco section of town. Nothing like this could happen in the prestigious Montville section of prestigious Montville Township.

  18. essex says:

    I lived in Montville for 5 years. This is some really sad stuff. And as “hilarious” as the last comment was imagine buying into a place like that. Serene….boring….and now, toxic. Some of these side effects won’t be known for generations. I am truly sorry to hear about this scenario. And I imagine the homeowners place has almost zero value now.

  19. chaoticchild says:

    breaking news from marketwatch.

    Treasurys stay down after home-price data
    Case-Shiller home prices down 15.4% in past year
    U.S. June Case-Shiller home prices up 1.4%

  20. chicagofinance says:

    17.NJGator says:
    August 25, 2009 at 8:29 am
    Clot 16 – In the mode of Chifi, I will use a blackjack analogy. It’s like pulling a pair of 8’s when the dealer is showing a 10. You don’t split and double the money you have on the table, where your 2 18s will both lose to the dealer’s 20. You take the hit and bust and just lose your original wager. Unless you are lucky, and the table has surrender – then you can at least salvage half your original bet.

    Gates: I appreciate this comment after 20 years of being called an a$$hat by countless other players and dealers….
    Q: Dealer has face and you are dealt A-A…do you split if there is a one card limit dealt to each new hand?

  21. veto that says:

    CS NY Metro prices are actually up from last month but this same thing happened last may june…

  22. watergapnomad says:

    Inmates grow, gather veggies, make soup for hungry

    COLUMBUS, Ohio — The nation’s food banks, struggling to meet demand in hard times, are turning to prison inmates for free labor to help feed the hungry.

    Several states are sending inmates into already harvested fields to scavenge millions of pounds of leftover potatoes, berries and other crops that otherwise would go to waste. Others are using prisoners to plant and harvest vegetables.

    “We’re in a situation where, without their help, the food banks absolutely could not accomplish all that they do,” said Ross Fraser, a spokesman for Feeding America, a national association of food banks.

    The number of Americans who couldn’t afford food jumped 30 percent from December 2007 to December 2008, according to a survey by the group. Demand at some pantries have more than doubled, Fraser said, as job losses and wage cuts have strained family budgets.

    State governments, with their own historic revenue shortfalls, can’t keep pace with the need. Many have cut budgets of social service agencies, including those that provide food assistance to the poor.

    Ohio and Michigan are among states that have expanded inmate farming projects specifically to feed the hungry. Other states, including Illinois and California, have increased help to food banks.


  23. frank says:

    U.S. June Case-Shiller home prices up 1.4%

    Where’s the housing recession??

  24. Sean says:

    Remember me? Wall Street repackages debt for sale as Re-Remic or resecuritization of real estate mortgage investment conduits and they are Triple AAA rated!

    Wall Street may have discovered a way out from under the bad debt and risky mortgages that have clogged the financial markets. The would-be solution probably sounds familiar: It’s a lot like what got banks in trouble in the first place.
    In recent months investment banks have been repackaging old mortgage securities and offering to sell them as new products, a plan that’s nearly identical to the complicated investment packages at the heart of the market’s collapse.
    “There is a little bit of deja vu in this,” said Arizona State University economics professor Herbert Kaufman.
    But Kaufman said the strategy could help solve one of the lingering problems of the financial meltdown: What to do about hundreds of billions of dollars in mortgages that are still choking the system and making bankers reluctant to make new loans.
    These are holdovers from the housing bubble, when home prices soared, banks bought risky mortgages, bundled them with solid mortgages and sold them all as top-rated bonds. With investors eager to buy these bonds, lenders came up with increasingly risky mortgages, sometimes for people who could not afford them. It didn’t matter because, in the end, the bonds would all get AAA ratings.
    When the housing market tanked, figuring out how much those bonds were worth became nearly impossible. The banks and insurance companies that owned them knew there were still some good mortgages, so they didn’t don’t want to sell everything at fire-sale prices. But buyers knew there were many worthless loans, too, so they didn’t want to pay full price for the remnants of a real estate bubble.
    In recent months, banks have been tiptoeing toward a possible solution, one in which the really good bonds get bundled with some not-quite-so-good bonds. Banks sweeten the deal for investors and, voila, the newly repackaged bonds receive AAA ratings, a stamp of approval that means they’re the safest investment you can buy.
    “You’ve now taken what was an A-rated security and made it eligible for AAA treatment,” said Richard Reilly, an analyst with White & Case in New York.
    As for the bottom-of-the-barrel bonds that are left over, those are getting sold off for pennies on the dollar to investors and hedge funds willing to take big risk for the chance of a big reward.
    Kaufman said he’s optimistic about the recent string of deals because, unlike during the real estate boom, investors in these new bonds know what they’re buying.
    “We’re back to financial engineering, absolutely,” he said. “But I think it’s being done at least differently than it was before the meltdown.”
    The sweetener at the heart of the deal is a guarantee: Investors who buy into the really risky pool agree to also take some of the risk away from those who buy into the safer pool. The safe investors get paid first. The risk-taking investors lose money first.
    That’s how the safe stack of bonds gets it AAA rating, which is crucial to the deal. That rating lets banks sell to pension funds, insurance companies and other investors that are required to hold only top-rated investments.
    “There’s no voodoo going on here. It’s just math,” said Sue Allon, chief executive of Allonhill, which helps investors analyze such hard-to-price investments.
    Financial gurus call it a “resecuritization of real estate mortgage investment conduits.” On Wall Street, it goes by the acronym Re-Remic (it rhymes with epidemic).
    “It actually makes a lot of fundamental sense,” said Brian Bowes, the head of mortgage trading at Hexagon Securities in New York. “It’s taking a bond that doesn’t necessarily have a natural buyer and creating two bonds that might have a natural buyer for each.”
    The risk is, if the housing market slips even more, even the AAA-rated investments may not prove safe. The deal also relies on the rating agencies, which misread the risk at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis, to get it right.
    And then there’s the uncertainty about the value of the underlying investments, which FBR Capital Markets analyst Gabe Poggi called “totally combustible.” Poggi likes the deals because they appear to have breathed some life into the market, but he said it only works if everyone knows exactly what they’re buying.
    The Obama administration is also working on a plan to get banks buying and selling risky bonds. But the public-private partnership announced this spring is still in the works and has yet to help investors figure out what those bonds are worth. By creating Re-Remics, banks can help start the process themselves.
    The concept has been around for years, but it has become increasingly popular lately as a way for banks to sell off bonds backed by commercial properties such as malls and office buildings. Analysts say they’ve seen a few dozen deals aimed at repackaging debt held over from the mortgage boom. Investment banks have also dabbled in turning collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, into Re-Remics.
    That’s where Allon gets nervous.
    “I think that’s trouble,” she said.
    CDOs are already complicated. Repackaging them makes it harder to figure out what the investment is worth. The more obscure the concept, she said, the more likely the deal has gotten too creative.
    Wall Street has a tendency to push the boundaries of good ideas, Bowes said. But he said banks are still smarting from the market implosion and are unlikely to rush into new, risky ventures.
    “A lot of the market innovations, they all started out with this fundamentally good concept and they often tend to deteriorate over time, or just evolve into more and more risky versions of the same concept,” Bowes said. “This time around, the likelihood is, it will take a lot longer for that to happen.”


  25. confused in NJ says:

    Grim stats from CDC on Swine Flu. Let’s hope they are as inaccurate as in 76.


  26. confused in NJ says:

    25.watergapnomad says:
    August 25, 2009 at 9:10 am
    Inmates grow, gather veggies, make soup for hungry

    Interesting, we may not need Universal Healthcare for the people who are starving. Maybe “O” needs to address this first.

  27. bi says:

    did i say last december that the home price would increase by june? i doubt case/chiller get it right.

  28. Sean says:

    re#28 Bloomberg Radio ran a story this AM on Swine Flu.

    a “plausible scenario,” that 30 percent to 50 percent of the U.S. population will be infected in the fall and winter.


  29. lostinny says:

    31 Sean
    That’s just great. I’m pretty sure I had it in June. Just an FYI for those that weren’t very familiar with what was going on- There were so many sick people that they actually stopped testing for it (in NYC). People were expected to treat it as if it were a regular flu. Medication was only offered for very severe cases. And the numbers of cases were skewed because testing had stopped. Everyone, even though they were expected to treat it as a regular flu, was assumed to have had swine flu.

  30. Stu says:


    I am 99.9% sure you always split aces and eights, even if you are limited to one card on each.

    Here is a basic strategy chart for AC blackjack.


  31. Sean says:

    So let’s vote which poster here will be first to put up trip wires put to keep the mailman and the paperboy away once the Swine Flu outbreak hits this fall and winter?

  32. Stu says:


    “Everyone, even though they were expected to treat it as a regular flu, was assumed to have had swine flu.”

    The common strains of flu never seem to be around during the Summer which is why I also assumed that everyone who had the flu this Summer had the swine version. No big deal.

  33. NJGator says:

    Chifi 23 – I will gladly sit at the a$$hat table with you. Much as Stu would disagree with me, I hate doubling anything against a 10. I will happily take my soft 11 and try to win on just my original bet. I am not greedy.

  34. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    OT alert

    I may be wrong, but somehow, I can’t see this as a big seller:

    “Workers at a crisis-hit boiler factory in France have stripped off for a nude calendar in a bid to save 204 jobs slated for redundancy.

    Staff at the Chaffoteaux et Maury factory in Brittany will use the proceeds to fund a trip to Italy where they plan to stage a protest at their parent company, Ariston Thermo Group (ATG), which pulled the plug on the site earlier this year.

    “Our aim is to show there are workers here who will do anything to save their jobs, even take their clothes off,” said Brigitte Coadic, representative of the CGT union at the site and the woman behind the calendar, which is due out in the autumn.

    . . . 13 male workers pose nude covered only with masks or helmets. . . ”

    Soooooo, French women (and probably some men as this is France) will pay money for pictures of, yes that’s right, boilermakers in the buff, all so that the boilermakers can take a trip to Italy for a picket line? (which will happen to coincide with some vacation time probably).

    Oh yeah, where do we sign up? (snark!)

  35. Stu says:

    Gator (37):

    “I am not greedy.”

    Has nothing to do with greed. It’s basic math. You will lose more in the long run not doubling your double opportunities or not splitting during your split opportunities.

  36. lostinny says:

    36 Stu
    I don’t think I’ve ever had a flu before and before June, I couldn’t remember the last time I had a fever. All I know is I felt like garbage.

  37. lostinny says:

    41 Stu
    Looks about right. Scary to look at a chart like that, but seemingly correct (as far as peaks).

  38. lurkerd says:

    “September 21, 2005 at 2:34 pm

    grim says:

    My estimate, at this point in time, given what I’ve seen and know, is that housing prices in Northern NJ will fall upwards of 40% in the next 5 years. No, I didn’t screw up on the math, you read right, 40%.”

    Between September 2005 and June 2009, New York area house prices fell by 16%, according to S&P/Case-Shiller data. The same data indicates that New York area house prices have risen for 2 consecutive months.

    Grim – Can you reveal whether you stand by your prediction of a 40% decline?

    Grim – Can you reveal whether you believe that housing prices in Northern NJ have bottomed?

  39. All Hype says:

    Good article to read, just tells all of us what we already know about the deficit, unemployment, etc.


    But hey, the market is up!

  40. Seneca RCG says:

    That’s right! Market is up and we all know…. you can’t fight the market.

    Mr. Market always wins in the end.
    Long is strong.

  41. meter says:

    “The share of prime borrowers who catch up with late payments, known as the cure rate, fell to 6.6 percent from an average 45 percent from 2000 through 2006, the New York-based ratings company said in a report. The cure rate for Alt-A mortgages declined to 4.3 percent and for subprime loans it fell to 5.3 percent. About 85 percent of the mortgages surveyed were for $417,000 or more, said Fitch Managing Director Roelof Slump.”

    Nice name.

  42. C Dawg says:

    Hey, All – Just wanted to let you know we just got out of attorney review on our first house.

    I have been reading this blog since spring 2006 and got hooked on the posts because, like many of you, I just felt that something was wrong, and that houses couldn’t keep skyrocketing in price as many people assumed (and hoped) would happen.

    I’m not sure if we bought at the bottom. I hope we did. Due to family circumstances (new twins), we decided now was the time since we felt the bottom wasn’t that far off.

    I just wanted to thank everyone for the free advice, wisdom, and counseling that helped our family save big time and avoid making a bad decision three years ago.


    C Dawg

  43. yo'me says:

    U.S. home prices rose in May on a sequential basis for the first time since July 2006, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. Yet the national benchmark was down 17% for the year ended May.

    A controversial new ETF tied to a Case-Shiller index that lets investors bet on rising home prices, MacroShares Major Metro Housing Up (UMM 25.94, +1.47, +6.01%) , has gotten off to a fast start. Launched at the end June, the leveraged ETF rallied nearly 30% in July, according to Morningstar


  44. yo'me says:

    Congratulations Dawg!!

  45. TomS says:

    Congrats C Dawg….good luck with everything.

  46. yo'me says:

    MacroShares Major Metro Housing Up /quotes/comstock/13*!umm/quotes/nls/umm (UMM 25.94, +1.47, +6.01%) and MacroShares Major Metro Housing Down /quotes/comstock/13*!dmm/quotes/nls/dmm (DMM 23.68, -1.72, -6.77%) are benchmarked to the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index. The paired securities will feature a 300% leverage factor.

    “For the first time, the market will have available exchange-traded benchmarks as an indication of where investors believe U.S home prices are headed,” said Robert Shiller, MacroShares chief economist.

    “Our current financial crisis is largely due to a failure to manage housing risk,” Shiller added. “At approximately $20 trillion, U.S. housing is a large and important asset class that has suffered from the lack of liquid, transparent markets.”

    The MacroShares Major Metro Housing Up is designed to rise when U.S. housing prices climb. Its counterpart, MacroShares Major Metro Housing Down, profits when real estate values fall.


  47. BklynHawk says:

    48/C Dawg-

  48. BklynHawk says:

    BC Bob:
    Just got caught on reading the last few posts and comments. My condolences on the passing of your father.

  49. Stu says:

    Funny…I thought no one here was going to buy a house.

    Congrats Dawg

  50. make money says:

    Congrats C Dawg.

  51. yo'me says:

    Confidence Among U.S. Consumers Rose on Jobs Outlook (Update1

    Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in August as consumers became less worried about the outlook for the labor market.

    The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 54.1, more than forecast and the first gain in three months, from 47.4 in July, a report from the New York-based group showed today. The figure reached a record low of 25.3 in February


  52. woodisgood says:

    Where do you see mortgage rates going in the next few weeks?

  53. Seneca RCG says:

    My dissociative disorder is now affecting CNBC.com

    Wish I could post a screenshot here.

    Left column shows “Stocks Flying High after Confidence Boost”

    Middle Column shows “Economy in Far Worse Shape Than Expected: White House” with a big red arrow pointing down next to it.

    Right Column shows “Citi Faces $44 Billion in Loan Losses: Analyst”

    … one of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn’t belong, can you tell which thing is not like the others, by the time I finish my song?

    But the stock market is forward looking so no big deal I guess. I just didn’t realize we looked forward by decades now.

  54. C Dawg – Congrats on the house and the twins!

  55. freedy says:

    consumer confidence is up.

    where was the survey taken?


  56. NJCoast says:

    C Dawg- Best wishes to you and your family. Enjoy.

  57. SG says:

    From Economist,

    America’s housing market

    Signs of stabilisation should not obscure the big problems still ahead.

    HE IS hardly your typical distressed seller. Hugh Hefner recently sold his personal residence in Holmby Hills, California, next door to the Playboy mansion, to a 25-year-old entrepreneur for $18m—some 36% below the asking price. It will come as little solace to the ageing Lothario that the discount looked about right: house prices have fallen by one-third from their peak nationwide, and by much more than that in the worst-hit states, such as California, Florida and Nevada.

    With 1.8m homes already in foreclosure, a “similar amount” may be heading that way, reckons Torsten Slok, an economist at Deutsche Bank. Even those states that were the first to feel pain are still seeing a sharp increase in pre-foreclosure notices. In California one type of notice, for “trustee sales”, leapt by 32% from June to July, according to ForeclosureRadar, a website. Even more worryingly, delinquencies, the raw material for foreclosures, are still on the rise across much of the once-golden state. In Orange County nearly 7% of mortgages are at least three months overdue but not yet foreclosed, up from around 5% at the start of the year.

  58. Seneca says:

    Ben Bernanke’s Greatest Hits – 2005-2007


    (sorry if this is a repost)

  59. Danzud says:

    If the housing market is so great, why is Congress trying to double the tax credit?

  60. RUWaiting says:

    Any feedback/recommendations about Fairfield or neighboring towns would be much appreciated.

    Sister-in-law is moving back from Cali and her husband has a new job in Fairfield. They are looking for a rental but I don’t know the area well.

    They have a 4 year old and one on the way so a safe family town with conveniences near by would be optimal.


  61. BeachBum says:

    So I was looking into the sheriff’s sale site for Monmouth County and it says that the sales are subject to first lien.
    So my questions are
    1. What does that mean
    2. Are their people (agents, lawyers, whoever) who can assist someone like me?
    I don’t live in the US, but want to buy a summer place in Bradley, Belmar or Avon, some are actually listed on the sheriff’s sale site (http://www.sheriffguadagno.com/index.php?mod=Foreclosures&start=350&colsort=cs_date)
    Don’t want to loose my shirt though…

  62. BeachBum says:


  63. If the housing market is so great, why is Congress trying to double the tax credit?

    So it becomes awesome!

    Also, I’m pretty sure Congress would appreciate it if you’d not point out logical flaws in the news.

  64. relo says:

    67: So they can get re-elected.

  65. Sean says:

    re #72 – What is even stranger is Congress wants affordable housing yet they want housing prices to go up!

  66. #69 – I’d imagine any decent RE agent should be familiar with the in-and-outs of foreclosure sales and could advise you. Of course, finding a decent agent might be a bit problematic.
    What does that mean
    I believe (and could be wrong) that the sale is only satisfying the first lien holder. There may be a second, third, tax liens, etc. on the property as well which may not be satisfied by the foreclosure sale and will need to be handled separately.
    Again, I may be wrong.

  67. RU says:

    (68) RUWaiting,
    Be careful of Fairfield. Huge flood plain. Nice town but you need to beware of where you buy or rent. You can also look into Cedar Grove, Verona and even Montville. All are close to Fairfield.

  68. BeachBum says:

    Tosh, Thanks – indeed the agent question is important (as everyone here says over and over again). I’ve been dealing with a very nice lady for the last two years, but I’m realizing that perhaps her interest in these towns (especially Bradley where she lives and is a property owner) may prevent her from being as agressive on the low ball and market readings as I’d like.
    Also, the auction process may require more legal knowledge than many agents have.

  69. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [48] dawg

    Good luck with that bag you’re holding. And the twins.

  70. GaryBot says:

    SEan 27,

    They wnt to re-securitize the MBS garbage and they base it all on this
    <i.The risk is, if the housing market slips even more, even the AAA-rated investments may not prove safe. The deal also relies on the rating agencies, which misread the risk at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis, to get it right.


    I gues PT Barnum was right “There’s a sucker born every minute”

  71. Seneca says:

    Anyone want to throw out some predictions for S&P 500 as of 10/30/09 and as of 1/30/10?

    We are at 1034 right now.

  72. chicagofinance says:

    bi says:
    August 25, 2009 at 9:25 am
    did i say last december that the home price would increase by june? i doubt case/chiller get it right.

  73. RUWaiting says:

    [77] RU, Thanks!

  74. gryffindor says:

    Anyone have opinons on Little Falls? I’m seriously considering renting some space there for a practice (main focus is kids & teens). Are there families moving there or is it as the old lady at the high school told me “No one ever leaves Little Falls.” Currently the nearest competition for me would be in Cedar Grove, Wayne, and Clifton.

    The fiance is in Manhattan with no plans to move for 5 years, so I need a town I can easily commute to from the Lincoln Tunnel and Little Falls seems to nicely fit the bill.

  75. make money says:

    Top Democratic Political Donor Hassan Nemazee Arrested In Connection With Citi Fraud Scheme.

  76. BB says:


    Tell them to check out Pequannock/Pompton Plains…fairly close to Fairfield

  77. confused in NJ says:

    Interesting, the Bernanke job extension, out weighs the 22 Trillion Dollar debt forecast over the next 10 years, for the Stock Market. He must truly be the Chosen One, leading us to a New Goldilocks Economy, where Massive Debt is Irrelevant.

  78. meter says:

    “With 1.8m homes already in foreclosure, a “similar amount” may be heading that way, reckons Torsten Slok, an economist at Deutsche Bank.”

    I guess it’s “let’s quote the guy with the strangest name” day.

  79. Sean says:

    Did Lenny Dykstra wreck his house in the last month to commit insurance fraud.


  80. Seneca says:

    gman [90]

    When Clotpoll starts to agree with Robert Kiyosaki,
    …. the end is nigh!

  81. RUWaiting says:

    [91] BB….thanks for the feedback.

  82. HEHEHE says:

    The Federal Reserve: Instigating Crisis Since 1913


  83. Clotpoll says:

    seneca (96)-

    I would offer to help Lenny Dykstra redeem his homes if he would use Kiyosaki’s head for batting practice.

    IMO, Kiyosaki runs a close second to Madoff on the list of people who have lethal ideas about money.

  84. Stu says:

    “When Clotpoll starts to agree with Robert Kiyosaki,
    …. the end is nigh!”

    Couldn’t agree more. What’s next? Is Ben Stein going to turn into a perma-bear?

  85. Clotpoll says:

    I can’t tell you how many people come to me with problems that were either begun or accelerated by reading Rich Dad, Poor Dad (which is a complete fabrication).

  86. make money says:


    He must have stacked shiny. Remember, you stand where you sit.

  87. … accelerated by reading Rich Dad, Poor Dad

    It worked so well for Casey Serin.
    Serin has a new plan btw.

  88. Clotpoll says:

    Casey Serin’s new plan should involve application of Sharia law to his hands.

  89. Seneca says:

    Clot, so what do you think motivated Kiyosaki’s article then? Is he short the market and long gold?

    Half the comments after his article are along the lines of “Kiyosaki is an idiot but he is right about this stuff….”

    off topic: if you post a link to an article, try to give some idea what the article is about so that those of us who download the NJRE comments for reading on the subway can remember what to look back for once we are mobile-connected again. I admit I break this rule sometimes but will try to at least give a lead in sentence or two from now on.

  90. lostinny says:

    48 C Dawg

  91. LTLV says:

    #105 Prices in the NY metro area including North Jersey fell 0.4% in the May to June 2009 period as per Case Shiller.


  92. Qwerty says:

    Riveting stuff:

    Analysis of our New Jersey Housing Market
    August 20th, 2009 by Sue Adler


  93. chicagofinance says:

    Qwerty says:
    August 25, 2009 at 4:27 pm

    Riveting stuff:

    Analysis of our New Jersey Housing Market
    August 20th, 2009 by Sue Adler

    Q: I assume you are sarcastic, as this mound of manure made be evacuate my bowels, bladder, sinuses, auditory canals, stomach and salivary glands simultaneously….pretty impressive….

  94. chicagofinance says:

    Good enough for Jersey but made for New York City….


  95. Seneca says:

    chifi [109]

    I see your bowels, sinuses, canals and bladder and raise you a nasolacrimal duct.

    The Sue Adler video (not of Sue but of her good friend in Austin) is priceless. This is news I can use.

    Apparently interest rates AND home prices are at an all time low. Therefore, we are in the “Buying Zone”. So buy now you fence-sitters.


    Hey, I don’t follow the Texas RE market but I wasn’t aware that prices for homes there were at an all time low.

Comments are closed.