Beige Book, from the Fed:
Federal Reserve Districts – Second District–New York
Construction and Real Estate
Commercial real estate markets in the District were mixed but, on balance, softer since the last report. Manhattan’s office vacancy rate leveled off in the final quarter of 2009, but asking rents on Class A properties reportedly tumbled by 15 percent and were down 26 percent from a year earlier. Office markets surrounding New York City were mixed: asking rents declined moderately, while vacancy rates were little changed overall–up slightly in Westchester and Fairfield Counties but down slightly in northern New Jersey and Long Island. Office markets in upstate New York were generally stable, on balance, with faint signs of improvement in the Buffalo and Albany areas but modest softening in metropolitan Rochester. Sales transactions of office properties were exceptionally low throughout the District in the fourth quarter, and, in most cases, down from both the third quarter and a year earlier.
Housing markets have been mixed but, on balance, steady since the last report. Home sales reportedly slowed considerably in the Buffalo area in November and early December, though prices remained higher than a year ago; this slowing is partly attributed to the expiration of the [now extended] homebuyer tax credit. Contacts in northern New Jersey report that resale activity and prices have picked up modestly, though both remain at fairly depressed levels; the uptick in prices may be partly due to fewer distress sales. New home construction in northern New Jersey remains stable at an exceptionally low level, with a modest pickup in multi-family development offsetting further weakening in the single-family sector. New York City’s housing market has shown some signs of stabilizing. Co-op and condo prices continued to decline in the fourth quarter but at a more moderate pace than earlier in the year–in both Manhattan and the outer boroughs. Moreover, the number of transactions picked up, both from the third quarter and from a year earlier, and the inventory of unsold units, though still fairly high, fell 25 percent from late-2008 levels. Manhattan’s apartment rental market also showed signs of stabilizing in December, as both rents and inventories were virtually unchanged from November. Still, rents remain well below year-earlier levels, especially when landlord concessions (fee waivers and free rent for 1-2 months) are factored in, though some of the more aggressive incentives are reportedly being scaled back.
(emphasis added)
1
is the loneliest number.
On New Year’s Eve, I went to a party in Philly (at the home of one of my friend’s friends, so I was surrounded by ultraliberals), and I met one of the economists that writes the Beige Book.
I referred to it as “anedotal” and he said that it essentially is exactly that.
When does Corzine’s security detail quit covering him/get pared down?
120 mm down a black hole & into a bunch of failed cities?
Corzine should get the Ceaucescu at Christmas treatment.
What an absolute scumbag.
The recovery is on! To celebrate….
A little Rocky Balboa Inspiration for 2010
Yours to count on,
Sue
http://njexperts.com/2009/12/24/a-little-rocky-balboa-inspiration-for-2010/
Just got back from biz trip to Cali. Owner of the company I was auditing has a 30 year old daughter who had been teaching in LA. She left the classroom and signed a contract with LA Unified to provide tutors to some of the kids that needed extra help. Now she’s making 150k from her bedroom coordinating other teachers to make extra cash tutoring the students that they were teaching earlier in the day. And you thought NJ was fukced up. Her big worry is that they plug will get pulled on No Child Left Behind.
You just had to drag Sue Adler into this…
Reminds me of just about the funniest image ever posted here:
https://njrereport.com/images/sueadlerunemployment.gif
8 prtraders
I’m sure there’s more to it but that it sounds like an incredible conflict of interests there.
Grim
Did you get my email?
lost, just sent!
Danke!
Sue Adler deserves to be blitzed by the best and brightest here.
I think I will start…
Somebody should ask Sue to help them find a nice place in Irvington with a steel-reinforced front door.
All Fed districts reported CRE weakness in the Beige Book.
Cash Cab is my favorite TV show.
18 Ben Bailey rules!
It’s the first Sue Adler attack of 2010. Everyone duck for cover!
this corzine is really ripping it to the
NJ taxpayer going out the door . what a low life.
I hope cc can cancel this crap.
it’s like he wants to hurt us .
Gator (previous thread), that is moronic. They never heard of plastic seat covers?
Leftwing/nom: Would totally be up for a GTG at a devil/ranger game. Especially after that wonderful game last night. Are there tickets still available to the next one?
Leftwing: My team is in division D. We are by far the oldest team in the league. We have 2 cops on the team as well. No one pushes us around, but a lot of teams score lots on us, mainly because our goalie is terrible. Let me know if you are serious about joining us. We really need to dump our goalie. Every time we have a substitute goalie we win. Sometimes we have even won without a goalie and playing a 6th skater back.
(23) Stu
Now you mention it. I can see if I can get more tix for the 27th. No promises though.
(23) Stu
Now you mention it. I can see if I can get more tix for the 27th. No promises though.
Nom: Very cool.
Scousers bomb out of FA Cup, 1-2 Reading.
Torres and Gerrard both go off injured.
Both those guys are gonna get sold. That’s at least 200mm of players that can fix a horrible balance sheet quick.
The investment world has been bombarded with leveraged ETF products. These products are specifically designed for use as short term trading vehicles…they are not meant to be held for long periods of time as the inherent decay factor will eat away at your principal (some levered ETF’s decay faster than others, but they all decay). All too often folks write about these products without properly warning investors of the built in dangers. In this example, I’d like to mathematically show how the 2x levered short treasury ETF (TBT) stacks up over time.
Here is the mathematical breakdown on TBT’s decaylicious existence…this example uses a snapshot of TLT, TBT, and long bond rates from 3 different time periods over the last 18 months (chosen specifically to show a constant long bond rate (5bps variance) versus the market price of TLT & TBT:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-tbts-decaylicious-existenceshown-mathematically
“Both housing and autos are destined to die on the vine. There is no lasting pent-up demand.
Spending money we do not have, borrowed into existence on the backs of future taxpayers, can never produce a recovery. The current improvement in economic conditions is simply an illusion, like Swiss cheese without the cheese. Take away the stimulus cheese all you have is holes. That unfortunately is the true state of this recovery.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/swiss-cheese-recovery-more-holes-than.html
My 30 year old daughter’s new bo comes to me today with neat little pics of his new house he got upstate in the Catskills.
Thinks its real pretty to have long icicles hanging from his front door. It faces north,so doesn’t get all the available sun.
I said to him, nice icicles you have there, but you stupid son of a bit*h… what you have here is an ice damn.
I get the blank look, tell him to get the handy man over.
so, something some you blokes out there may want to consider if you have the long icicles hanging from the roof.
http://roofing.owenscorning.com/images/graphics/ice-dam.jpg
yup, right once again,
SAS
“Monsanto’s GMO Corn Linked To Organ Failure, Study Reveals”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/12/monsantos-gmo-corn-linked_n_420365.html
SAS
I assume Gator was complimenting Stu on his “performance”. Sounds very enthusiastic to me.
100.Shore Guy says:
January 13, 2010 at 1:27 pm
“Unfortunately, I’ve been told that I accelerate like a turtle.”
Tell Gator to be nice.
clot: I warned about this in late-2007….it is true of all the short leveraged product. I don’t know why these Zero Hedge guys or Zero Value zealots would be sporting a woodie…makes them looks like pikers desperate for attention…OK ..that’s right…
28.The Condition-Code Red says:
January 13, 2010 at 9:27 pm
All too often folks write about these products without properly warning investors of the built in dangers. In this example, I’d like to mathematically show how the 2x levered short treasury ETF (TBT) stacks up over time. Here is the mathematical breakdown on TBT’s decaylicious existence…
late-2008
PBS playing “Passing Strange” a new broadway musical. Superb.
coming from Essex.. it’s more properly called:
““Passing Flatulence”
:P
SAS
or Passing Kidney Stones ;-P
“Chrysler CEO: World supply of cars outpaces demand
Chrysler’s Machionne says auto industry must reduce factory capacity in order to survive”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chrysler-CEO-Sales-wont-apf-2991253151.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
but Sergio?
“China vehicle sales underline power shift”
-China yesterday underlined the power shift from western car markets to Asia as data confirmed car sales in the country shot up last year and the government said it expected a strong 2010.
Car sales rose by nearly 53 per cent to 10.3m while total vehicle sales – including buses, trucks and the small commercial vans that powered much of last year’s growth – rose 46.2 per cent to 13.6m units.
This allowed China to coast past the US and become the leading global auto market, several years ahead of expectation. US cars and light truck sales last year were 10.4m.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca637a30-ff1a-11de-a677-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
Nice little bit of commodity inflation hitting us in the wallet in NNY right now.
Regular unleaded now $2.99 and propane back to $3.20 per gallon – up 12% from last year’s price.
“Police layoffs announced but not made, yet”
http://www.shorenewstoday.com/news.php?id=6792
Interesting article comparing the Soviet collapse to the imminent US collapse.
Closing the ‘Collapse Gap’: the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US
I hope that I didn’t make it sound as if the Soviet collapse was a walk in the park, because it was really quite awful in many ways. The point that I do want to stress is that when this economy collapses, it is bound to be much worse. Another point I would like to stress is that collapse here is likely to be permanent. The factors that allowed Russia and the other former Soviet republics to recover are not present here.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259
“In spite of all this, I believe that in every age and circumstance, people can sometimes find not just a means and a reason to survive, but enlightenment, fulfillment, and freedom. If we can find them even after the economy collapses, then why not start looking for them now?”
SAS 41
“At that meeting it was obvious that they were not going to make concessions, so I can’t spend money that I don’t have,” Sasdelli said
“can’t spend money that I don’t have”
Send that to DC, & every American household. Just A thought!
Brian 40 propane $320 try $269, buy in advance.
Hi! TCfJcdX
Hi! sgZgwSz
Hi! BCcGqRQE
WTF?
sl
Anyone else having problems getting on this site? I NEED my daily fix.
What happened here today?
Like junkies looking for a vein.
Bet it has something to do with those Hi! messages. Maybe we’ve been cyber attacked by China.
damn, looks like these spammers took the site down for a bit!
Grim moved his site to Albania.
Grim was hijacked by Sue Adler’s tech ninjas.
Meanwhile I’m getting the DT’s like Pablo’s dog.
The Chinese hacked the website, just like google.
Mocha[49];
Ditto. I’m guessing a server down and/or spam issued judging by the time stamps on comments and 45-47.
-Moose
Finally!
I was beginning to itch like a crackhead.
REALAWHORES !!!!!
they’ve put down the scrap booking and Ellen and became hackers in their downtime.
I was about to turn to crack when wammo, the blog reappears.
I thought Grim was being interrogated for Clot’s true identity.
frank, 57
I wish they’d hack your neck instead.
sl
Reggie M.’s Boom Bust Blog:
A Fundamantal Investor’s Peek into the Alt-A Market
http://boombustblog.com/Reggie-Middleton/1277-An-Fundamantal-Investors-Peek-into-the-Alt-A-Market.html
“The issue is that the Alt-A loans are usually written for a much larger amount than the subprime loans, hence the losses from Alt-A shall be much larger.”
More chart porn than Veto could shake a stick at.
Fark.com was down today too. I would have been productive at work today, so I had three beers at lunch. Close call.
sl, are you and frank married? :-)
My name is Clotpoll, and I’m addicted to a real estate blog…
Reggie M.’s Boom Bust Blog:
A Fundamantal Investor’s Peek into the Alt-A Market
http://boombustblog.com/Reggie-Middleton/1277-An-Fundamantal-Investors-Peek-into-the-Alt-A-Market.html
“The issue is that the Alt-A loans are usually written for a much larger amount than the subprime loans, hence the losses from Alt-A shall be much larger.”
More chart p0rn than Veto could shake a stick at.
Doubt it’s related to the outage seen here, but perhaps related to other sites that have been slow to respond, or inaccessible:
Cogent Network Status/DNS Server Status Description: Welcome to Cogent Communications’ Network Status Message. Customers with traffic going through or on the east coast may be experiencing packet loss and higher than normal latency due to a fiber cut in New Jersey. Splice crews are at the site. There is no ETR at this time. The Cogent ticket to reference for this issue is HD2082680. A separate issue has been identified for customers in Toronto and Chicago. The routing issue has been resolved. The Cogent ticket to reference for this issue is HD2082851
(fyi…Cogent is a pretty large ISP responsible for a lot backbone site peering)
escape (65)-
Nah. Here’s a shot of Frank’s wife:
http://tinyurl.com/y8zjyx7
Eastman Kodak has announced that it filed lawsuits against Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM). Kodak is alleging at the International Trade Commission that both companies infringement Kodak patents and intellectual property concerning digital imaging technology. The specifics claim that Apple’s iPhones and RIM’s camera-enabled BlackBerry devices infringe a Kodak patent that covers technology related to a method for previewing images. Kodak is seeking from the ITC a limited exclusion order preventing the importation of infringing devices, including certain mobile telephones and wireless communication devices featuring digital cameras.
Separately, Kodak has filed two suits today against Apple in U.S. District Court for the Western District of New York alleging infringement of patents related to digital cameras and to certain computer processes. In both District Court actions against Apple, Kodak is seeking to permanently enjoin Apple from further infringement as well as unspecified damages.
64.
‘ hughesrep says:
January 14, 2010 at 2:24 pm
Fark.com was down today too. I would have been productive at work today, so I had three beers at lunch. Close call.’
I actually LOLed at this.
re: #70 – John with a market cap of only 1.3 billion Apple or Rimm should just swallow up Kodak.
Kodak’s new business model is to just sue everyone. They recently won a lawsuit against Samsung. I’ve seen other failing companies go this route in the past. The only ones who end up gaining are the lawyers.
Stu – The Supremes are about to rule on Biliski, it might be a game changer for these types of lawsuits.
http://www.patentdocs.org/2009/11/supreme-court-bilski-argument.html
Stu[73};
Just like houses, why pay retail now? if its going down one can surely cherry pick the good bits for less on the courthouse steps.
Clot,
You can smile at the Leeds comparisions
http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/jan/13/glazers-manchester-united-training-ground
“Washington is offering nothing but higher taxes and fines and fees and more regulation. Congress is passing bills with thousands of pages of hidden bombs that will go off as the legislation is passed and implemented. Federal spending has soared amazingly, yet been ineffective except at pushing the federal deficit to incomprehensible heights, promising to double our national debt in just a few years. The interest burden this will place on average Americans is astounding. Uncertainty is the enemy of economic growth and investment, and Washington, D.C., the usual source of uncertainty, is delivering plenty of it. Confidence in our political leadership has tanked.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/small-business-trends-suggest-no.html
Angry Obama.
In tough, populist language, Obama warned bankers not to pass on the cost to customers or shareholders and instead demanded they reduce their staff bonus payments which are scheduled to be announced in the next seven days.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/14/barack-obama-tax-wall-street
Fark was down I must have been in meetings all day thankfully it is not Caturday!
would be up for a Devils Rangers GTG Madison Square Garden west?
Stu I’m guessing you guys play in Floyd Hall?
Our email is down today. Could it be related? Service provider, NBS, not getting back to us. I think it is a domain issue, but I truly know zilch about IT.
PGC (76)-
The Glazers won’t stop until they run that club into the ground. They will be lucky to end as well as Leeds did (sarcasm off).
I like the 30mm or so they’ve ripped out for themselves in “consulting fees”. None of those inbred dolts know a thing about soccer, professional sports or marketing.
It has been a dream of mine to see SAF end his career by seeing ManU put into administration and relegated.
Perhaps when these clowns hit League 2, somebody will wake up and smell the coffee.
don’t forget barry is getting every single
dime back for us.
sean (78)-
All posturing, talk and saber-rattling.
Nothing will happen. If the banks get hit with that tax, it will all be passed on to consumers and borrowers.
Barry be the bankers’ bitch now.
Then again, ManU has played like a League 2 mid-table club all season.
That’s why they got whipped by Leeds.
While we’re at it, put healthcare into the “Nothing Will Happen” column too.
Well, thank God! So, should I be worried about myself that I seem to NEED to read this blog??
well, where is the 100 mill for haiti coming from
66. Amen brother.
Rejoice !!!!
Home affordability is at a record high
Q: I am an investor thinking about purchasing real estate in 2010. Do you have any idea what will be happening to prices in Northern New Jersey?
Stan H.
Hillsdale
A: Kudos to you, Stan, because real estate, if purchased well, is the single best investment one can make. Purchasing well means that there is more to real estate than price alone so consider sitting down with a Realtor and going over all your options like property type, market location and timing, risk tolerance, etc. To your question specifically, real estate is cyclical and the causes and characteristics of these cycles vary, with the price of real estate responding accordingly. Right now, with low interest rates, a myriad of government tax credits available and a projected end to the price slide, the opportunity to invest in real estate in Northern New Jersey is peaking. Home affordability is at a record high because of these factors. We expect Northern New Jersey prices to rise moderately in 2010, most likely two to five percent, and then again in 2011. Because of all the factors involved, however, it is not realistic to project where prices will be that far out into the future.
Pat Robertson should be deported.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/0114/Pat-Robertson-Haiti-comments-French-view-theory-with-disbelief
Deported to Haiti that is.
give pat a break
Looking at houses in northern coastal SC and I have this observation. It is possible to get a large place, fully-updated, with elevator, overlooking a lake, and within a short walk of the beach for less than the cost of a small out of date place in Bradley Beach or Lake Como. Of corse, one does have to put up with warmer weather and lower taxes.
corzine and crew pulled another one today
the new transparency web site.a week before the dirtbag leaves
“well, where is the 100 mill for haiti coming from”
A special tax on Stu and Gator. Oh, Nom and BC too. We must squeeze the overachievers of the world.
89: Wishful thinking and disinformation at a record high.
A guy just pulled up next to me at the light and he looked like a white Rastifarian Oompa Loompa. Amazing!
Sean 90 Pat is out there no doubt. Let us not deport him , but keep him around for comic relief.
freedy, 87
shore, 95
printing presses
sl
78: I bet they’re going to get a stern talking to.
I love this:
Avatards: Fervent fans of James Cameron’s movie “Avatar.”
[95] shore
“We must squeeze the overachievers of the world.”
Ha! Fooled you. I have my slackerflage on and no one is going to confuse me with an overachiever.
[95] shore
“We must squeeze the overachievers of the world.”
Ha! Fooled you. I have my slackerflage on and no one is going to confuse me with an overachiever.
102: I will watch pretty much any movie, yet this holds no interest for me. Those whove seen it, any b00bs or knug-fu to pique my high-brow curiosity?
“well, where is the 100 mill for haiti coming from”
tax, borrow, or print. The only 3 ways govt gets its money. Govts don’t have any money that they must get from somewhere else first.
PS. We are still paying for Katrina.
(and I don’t mean John’s Craig’s List Geisha)
SAS
Nom,
No doubt, they will cross reference party affiliation, the Bar Association membership list, and zip codes.
Zey know ver you liff.
“tax, borrow, or print.”
and military makes sure the above 3 get done… in one way or another.
God Bless America? ha ha.. at the barrel of a M16 or a Huey chopper.
SAS
104 – relo
Not at all.
I’m a sci-fi-guy and actually enjoyed this movie. I liked the storyline behind it as well as the political overtones.
Even if you’re not into the story you have to appreciate the special effects…pretty slick technology. See it in IMAX 3D though – 2D probably sucks in comparison.
42-
Al “The Thermostat” Gore says:
January 14, 2010 at 12:24 am
Interesting article comparing the Soviet collapse to the imminent US collapse.
Closing the ‘Collapse Gap’: the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US
I hope that I didn’t make it sound as if the Soviet collapse was a walk in the park, because it was really quite awful in many ways. The point that I do want to stress is that when this economy collapses, it is bound to be much worse….
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259
“In spite of all this, I believe that in every age and circumstance, people can sometimes find not just a means and a reason to survive, but enlightenment, fulfillment, and freedom. If we can find them even after the economy collapses, then why not start looking for them now?”
You just can’t get enough damn negativity can you? YOU STOOP TO THE LEVEL OF DAMN DIRT WHEN YOU COMPARE OUR GREAT NATION TO THE DAMN STINKING COMMIE RUSKIES. HOW DARE YOU POST THIS CRAP?
Let me get something straight, you damn liberal, we are NOT a damn bunch of stinking commies with some damn centrally planned economy. WE’RE THE DAMN USA and in my damn book that means a lot. THE ONLY REASON WE HAVE A DAMN PROBLEM IS BECAUSE OF THE DAMN BLAME AMERICA FIRST REAL ESTATE TERRORISTS AND LIBERALS LIKE YOU.
If you don’t like the damn country, and I know you don’t because if you did, you wouldn’t post shlt like this, THEN GET THE HELL OUT.
United States: Say goodbye to job recession…and hello to census effect; Solid rebound after aggressive cuts – – despite only moderate economic growth
Pent-up demand: the MS thesis has been simple: Aggressive cuts to payrolls over the past two years have set the stage for a solid rebound, despite only moderate economic growth. What were minimal hiring excesses are long gone, and a growing economy has produced a hiring deficit. While there are several factors that will mute the hiring recovery, this pent-up demand will overwhelm them.
Policy uncertainty may delay hiring: The main risk seen for positive job gains is timing: Hiring always lags the recovery; the current surge in productivity growth speaks to that lag. This time, uncertainty around a variety of policy actions may further delay the pick-up. For example, the economists say that uncertainty tied to healthcare reform restrained hiring at small and medium-sized businesses for part of 2009. Both House and Senate plans would either mandate coverage or boost taxes. Why hire until the dust settles on those proposals? Employers are responding by boosting the workweek and hiring temps. The good news is that Democrats are determined to iron out differences between House and Senate healthcare bills, resolving this uncertainty. The bad news for employers is that, either way, hiring will cost more.
David Greenlaw says to help conduct the census, the federal government hires hundreds of thousands of temporary employees. The census effect was not a factor in December’s employment report, but it is likely to attract a good deal more attention over the course of the coming months. Every ten years, the US Census Bureau takes a snapshot of the population, determining how many people reside within the nation’s borders, who they are, and where they live. The results of the census help to determine the make-up of the Congress and the apportionment of public expenditures.
Paul Krugman,
Desert bubbles
Some commenters on my Bernanke-bubble post wondered how the story I told back in 2005 can account for Phoenix and Las Vegas.
The short answer is that while both cities are surrounded by a lot of empty space, that doesn’t mean that development can sprawl as easily as in Atlanta or Houston. A Brookings survey of land-use regulations found that Phoenix and the California portions of metro Las Vegas are “growth management” areas with significant limits on expansion
104 – relo 2.5 hours so if you go sit in front be sure to go to the 3D version and you will think you are in the movie after the first few minutes of adjusting to the 3D.
The fusion of CGI cat creatures and real life actors is relatively seamless and you end up just completely buying into the world that James Cameron has put you into. It has immersive feel too it, and although the story is maddeningly rushed, and the characters lack real depth you will like the movie for the feeling it delivers and hate the script because of it’s similarities to other movies.
Markets are too dependent on unsustainable government stimulus. Something’s got to give
THE effect of free money is remarkable. A year ago investors were panicking and there was talk of another Depression. Now the MSCI world index of global share prices is more than 70% higher than its low in March 2009. That’s largely thanks to interest rates of 1% or less in America, Japan, Britain and the euro zone, which have persuaded investors to take their money out of cash and to buy risky assets.
Investors tempted to take comfort from the fact that asset prices are still below their peaks would do well to remember that they may yet fall back a very long way. The Japanese stock market still trades at a quarter of the high it reached 20 years ago. The NASDAQ trades at half the level it reached during dotcom mania. Today the prices of many assets are being held up by unsustainable fiscal and monetary stimulus. Something has to give.
From above article,
Central banks have a range of tools they can use to discourage the growth of bubbles. Forcing banks to adopt higher capital ratios may curb speculative excesses. As Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, argued this week, the rise in American house prices could have been limited through better regulation of the banks. The most powerful tool, of course, is the interest rate. But central banks are wary of using it to pop bubbles because it risks crushing growth as well. And, with the world economy in its current fragile state, they are rightly unwilling to jack up interest rates now.
But even if governments judge that the risks posed by raising rates now outweighs that of keeping them low, investors still have plenty of reasons to worry. The problem for them is not just that valuations look high by historic standards. It is also that the current combination of high asset prices, low interest rates and massive fiscal deficits is unsustainable.
Interest rates will stay low only if growth remains slow. But if economies grow slowly, then profits will not rise fast enough to justify current share prices and incomes will not rise far enough to justify the prevailing level of house prices. If, on the other hand, the markets are right about the prospects for economic growth, and the current recovery is sustained, then governments will react by cutting off the supply of cheap money later this year.
do we have a bubble in Trenton?
Huh? No posts in over an hour?
has it happened? That oblivion thing? So lonely now…so…cold…
Thats honestly an alarming gadget to get in my arsenal. Does anyone have aidea where I can purchase it? Any recommendations?
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