From the WSJ:
FHA to Lift Mortgage Insurance Fees
The Federal Housing Administration will announce more-stringent lending requirements and higher borrower fees on Wednesday to cushion against rising defaults and stave off the need for a taxpayer bailout of the agency.
The FHA, which has taken on a major role in the housing market during the economic downturn, doesn’t lend money to home buyers, but insures lenders against default on loans that meet FHA criteria. In exchange for that backing, borrowers who take out FHA-backed loans must pay an upfront insurance premium, currently set at 1.75% of the total loan amount. The premium can be rolled into the loan.
The FHA is set to raise that fee to 2.25%, the second increase in the past two years, according to people familiar with the matter. The value of the FHA’s reserves to cover losses has fallen to $3.6 billion, about 0.5% of the $685 billion in loans outstanding, down from 3% a year earlier. Congress requires the agency to maintain a 2% capital-reserve ratio. If the larger upfront fee had been in place last year, the FHA would have boosted its reserves by more than $1 billion.
…
The FHA, which backs as many as half of all new loans in certain housing markets, has come under fire for insuring loans with little or no money down as home prices have plunged over the past three years. With its reserves falling, the agency has been forced to walk a tightrope between protecting taxpayer dollars and helping to facilitate the housing recovery.The FHA will keep minimum down payments at the current 3.5% level for most borrowers. But the agency will require riskier borrowers with credit scores below 580 to make a minimum 10% down payment. While the FHA doesn’t have a credit-score cutoff, most lenders require a minimum 620 score.
Some housing analysts have pushed for higher down payments on FHA-backed loans, and a bill in Congress would raise down payments to 5%, from the current 3.5%.
Instead, the FHA will reduce the amount of money that sellers can kick in for closing costs to 3% of the sale price, down from the current level of 6%. The higher cap led to abuses where sellers “heavily marked up the purchase price,” says Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker in Boulder, Colo.
From the NY Times:
F.H.A. to Raise Standards for Mortgage Insurance
The Federal Housing Administration, which is supporting the housing market by insuring thousands of new mortgages every day, is expected to announce on Wednesday that it is tightening standards.
Borrowers who get an F.H.A.-insured loan will soon have to pay a higher initial insurance premium. The new premium will be 2.25 percent of the value of the loan, up from 1.75 percent.
Starting this summer, sellers will not be able to offer as much help to buyers to pay their closing costs. The maximum amount of assistance will drop to 3 percent of the value of the property, from the current 6 percent.
…
For years, the F.H.A. operated largely out of the public view. But it has become a subject of controversy recently even as it has ballooned in size. Some of the agency’s critics want it to tamp down risk by insuring fewer loans; others think it should help the market by insuring even more.As of December, the F.H.A. was insuring 5.8 million single-family residences that had a total loan balance of $750 billion. More than half a million of the loans were seriously delinquent and heading toward foreclosure.
Many of these troubled loans were made in 2007 and 2008 as the market was plunging.
From the ZipRealty Blog:
New Jersey Home Buyers Now to Receive a Rebate from ZipRealty
For home buyers in New Jersey, today is an exciting day.
New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine signed into law a bill sponsored by state Assemblyman Patrick J. Diegnan, Jr., Paul D. Moriarty and Joseph Vas that allows New Jersey home buyers across the state to receive a cash rebate, once they close on their home, from real estate brokerages, including ZipRealty. With people being asked to cough up higher down payments and meet more stringent lending standards than ever to purchase a house these days, the ability to get a check after closing – or even cover those closing costs with a rebate from your real estate agent – is sure to be a boon for both cash-strapped buyers and the New Jersey housing market overall.
The process of getting this law passed, however, that didn’t happen overnight.
For the past three years, ZipRealty has worked closely with public officials in New Jersey to promote the importance of offering a rebate to buyers once they’ve purchased their home. We’ve attended countless committee hearings, and I’ve personally testified to New Jersey real estate committees about the fact that offering a rebate to home buyers can help stimulate local housing markets, and offers buyers with more real estate brokerage choices.
The real estate industry, historically, has been about what’s best for the agent. We recognized more than a decade ago when ZipRealty first launched that this old industry model was broken. Our goal from day one has been to always put the home buyer first and to provide the most transparency possible online.
From Bloomberg:
Foreclosures, Bad Weather Probably Stalled U.S. Housing Starts
Housing starts were probably little changed in December as rising foreclosures and inclement weather kept builders at bay, economists said before a report today.
Ground may have been broken on 572,000 houses at an annual rate compared with 574,000 in November, according to the median estimate of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Permits, a sign of future construction, may also have dropped.
A projected record 3 million foreclosures this year will probably swell the number of properties on the market, hurting builders by making existing houses more attractive as prices fall. At the same time, the government’s extension and expansion of the tax credit for first-time buyers will probably help underpin demand in the first half of the year.
“There is risk of a further decline in housing coming from the dynamic of elevated foreclosures,” said Julia Coronado, a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “Like the rest of the economy, there are a lot of speed bumps in the road.”
The Commerce Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Projections ranged from 495,000 to 630,000.
From the WSJ:
Americans Grow Weary of Government Intervention in Marketplace
Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown’s surge in Massachusetts comes as a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found increasing voter unease over the federal government’s expanding role in the private sector.
For the first time, a majority of Americans—53%—disapprove of the government’s increased role in the economy since the financial crisis, up from 44% in March. And 48% said Washington was doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals, a plurality seen in polling since September.
Grim: how bad will this hurt the spring
selling season?
The mortgage market pullout and the end of the FTHB credit will make a larger impact.
From the AP:
Builder sentiment index dips 1 point in January
The National Association of Home Builders says its housing market index fell this month to the lowest level since last summer. The drop reflects fears that demand for new homes will be weak despite the extension of a federal tax credit for buyers.
The reading of 15 is the second-straight monthly decline and the lowest since June. It shows that builders are grim about their prospects even though Congress extended the deadline for a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers and expanded it to include $6,500 for existing homeowners who move.
From Bloomberg:
FHA Raises Down Payments, Premiums Amid Mortgage Delinquencies
The Federal Housing Administration is raising insurance rates and tightening credit-score rules to combat a rise in delinquencies, making a government-guaranteed mortgage more expensive for U.S. homebuyers.
…
“While borrowers will bear more of the costs of the government insurance program through higher premium charges, the additional revenue will help ensure that FHA stays solvent,” Berenbaum said in a statement. “While some less creditworthy borrowers will need higher down payments, this is a necessary move in markets where a decline in home value can wipe out a new buyer’s equity within weeks after the settlement.”
For those that think this Tom Forester guy knows a thing or two about housing, looks like he, along with many of you see further price declines in 2010.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fund-manager-sees-another-crash-in-home-prices-2010-01-19
Actually was thinking of starting to look around at some homes in Feb but maybe not.
Can anyone suggest some nice apartments in the Mont Co area or in the Media PA area?
Nice defined as spacious. quiet & well maintained with walk in closets and in suite laundry.
“With people being asked to cough up higher down payments and meet more stringent lending standards than ever to purchase a house these days”
higher down payments? %3 1/2 down hmm..
“sure to be a boon for both cash-strapped buyers and the New Jersey housing market overall.”
cash-strapped buyers?? hmm..
this all seems too familiar…
FHA moving now? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Barn door open, horses gone.
When any gubmint agency tightens guidelines, you can be sure the detonation is soon to follow.
In the case of FHA, the detonation has already begun.
This one will be the kill shot, folks. Housing is now entering a 20-40 year “wilderness” phase.
why are people buying houses if they’re sooo broke? because affordability is back. it seems we’re forgetting to measure what the borrower can actually pay. lending models are still broken
the “best” pizza in NJ according to NJ “celebrities”
http://njmonthly.com/articles/lifestyle/people/celebrity-pizza-picks.html
11 red
I just had a guy tell me yesterday that this mess will all be over by 2012. I’m assuming he thinks prices will start to rise. I told him it will take the preforeclosures that long to get to the bank owned stage. nevermind the fha 2007-2010 vintage that will have heavy defaults
the bank owned stage has not even started here in nj.
The Ponzi, crank-and-shank equity markets will be the next to blow. Maybe the cry of “fire” will come after every single corporate exec in the US has completely divested.
“What is there to say about the endless barrage of insider sales that hasn’t been said for 9 straight months before. Insiders are selling into the neverending rally, as domestic mutual funds have no equity inflows, yet stocks somehow miraculously keep rising, providing yet more attractive exit price points for directors and insiders. In the past week insiders bought $18 million worth of stock and sold $419 million. There is no way to spin this data. There were no notable buyers, while Nelson Peltz was vacating HNZ shares with a vengeance, selling $30 million worth of the canned food maker. Ralph Lauren also apparently wasn’t too hot on Polo’s Spring/Summer collection.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-outpaces-buying-24-times-last-week
the guy I mention in 14 has 2 kids in their mid-20’s so this will be his advice to them. I’ve said it before that many buyers at the peak probably relied on advice from and were told buy a s much house as you can afford. the psychology hasn’t changed as much as I thought it would
“in favor of the side of right and justice ”
Emmm, explain to me again how you think Right and Justice applys to the GOP?
Another quake hits Haiti, 6.1.
From MarketWatch:
Weekly mortgage applications rise 9.1% as rates drop: MBA
Mortgage application volumes increased a seasonally adjusted 9.1% last week from the week before, mainly reflecting an uptick in refinancing activity, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday.
Refinancing filings rose 10.7% for the week ended Jan. 15, according to MBA’s latest survey. Applications for mortgages to buy homes were also up, increasing a seasonally adjusted 4.4%.
…
The four-week moving average for all mortgages through Jan. 15 was down 1%, the MBA said.
x-roads (17)-
It’s nothing short of societal suicide. Must be just like Rome, when the Visigoths were at the gates.
Dems = Repubs
All corrupt. All slaves to completely bankrupt ideas.
Just like sas said, they’re no more than two horses in a two-horse race. And, people like a horse race.
The horse race also conveniently provides cover for the calculated, systematic buttr@pe of all of us.
seems to me that with the FHA pulling back, the party’s over .
now what?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF.IwHg1rR_s&pos=3
I don’t want to start a fight or anything but I am trying to understand this:
“Property Bonds Beat Corporates as Simon Sells: Credit Markets”
“Real estate borrowers are leading the rally in U.S. corporate bonds as investors add to bets property companies will weather an increase in commercial mortgage defaults.”
So does this push CRE losses further and further down the road?
PGC,
Only in relative terms, for the Dems have been nothing but wrong and they show no signs of wanting to be just.
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=134&genericContentID=530
NAHB – Home Builders – interesting chart
Crossroads
2 full generations have had the” housing only goes up” mantra reinforced from thier daily experience. That meme will not be given up easily, not until we see stories about Hoovervilles on the nightly news.
The US is in the tail end of a 30 yr inflationary economic expansion period. No one will believe the party is over until they are stripped naked and thrown into the cold.
The average Joe knows no more about finance and economcs then what is told to them on the nightly news. Keep that in mind and the average perspective makes more sense
“buyers at the peak probably relied on advice from and were told buy a s much house as you can afford. ”
Background: We don’t like debt nor have we ever tended to carry it for long. We did carry a small mortgage for awhile, but paid it off in about a dozen years and for most of that time it was better to keep getting the market gains we were achieving than to pay down a (for then) low cost mortgage. Besides, in thelast few years, the monthly payment was like 3% or so of our monthly income.
So, we have been looking for an occasional-use place, on or a short walk from a beach, in either a warmer state or territory. We can afford $million plus homes but we neither want to expose ourselves to the possibility of further price declines on a property of such costs, nor do we want the gosh-awful-looking places that seem to be all the rage in those price ranges; a beach house should look like one and not a suburban tract house. Nor should it look like a McMansion, at least that is how we think.
In short, we just want a nice 3-4 BR, 2-3 bath place, ideally with an open floor plan, a porch for a porch swing and a pattio for griling, where we can catch some ocean breezes, and, if it gets washed or blown off the map in a hurricain, we will not be put behind the eight ball.
The RE agents we encounter are pathetic, as a rule. “Oh? That is all you can afford?” Or, “Wel, you can afford so much more than this and are unwise not to buy bigger.”
@27 – Kettle
An the economists can’t agree on anything…D@mn star gazers…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=apfl_Mic9Dns&pos=11
“No new Normal on Wall Street as Economists dismiss Pimco’s DGP”
“stripped naked and thrown into the cold. ”
Sounds like the start of a John story.
From 29:
“Wall Street economists arent buying the theory propounded by Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief investment officers at Pacific Investment Management Co., that the U.S. will be mired in long-term sluggish growth averaging 2 percent a year. They see potential real growth, or the rate of expansion at which inflation is steady, at 2.5 percent, matching the average quarterly rate of the past 20 years, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 46 economists.
I dont think its different this time, said Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ in New York, who pegs potential growth at 2.6 percent. Weve had financial-market crises and big workforce changes before, and growth has pretty consistently come in around 2.5 percent over the past 50 to 60 years.”
Humm, I wonder if there are ANY differences in the US and world economies between now and that 50-60-year period? What about debt loads? What about industrial capacity?
Here we have people making forecasts based on the past and not recognizing the changes that have occurred. It is like picking a college team to repeat as national champions when the core of the team is seniors and all of the underclass players suck. “Well, they were great the last 3-4 years….”
Well, it would appear that the dem machine in Boston is officially dead. It didn’t produce and the SEIU and Benedict Arlen had to step in but to no avail.
As Vizini would say “inconceivable.”
Housing Market Index
Prior 16
Current 15
Highlights
One step forward and two steps back is what comes to mind with recent housing data. First November pending home sales plunged and now the National Association of Homebuilders’ housing market index is slipping, at 15 in January vs. 16 in December and what now seems like a very hopeful 19 in September. The index hit a cycle low of 8 in January last year.
January’s traffic component is very weak at 12, down 1 point in confirmation for those who are warning that buyers will sit out the winter, waiting for the approach of the end to the latest round of government credits that expire in the spring. The NAHB says competition from foreclosures is hurting the new home sector as is the weak jobs market. Housing starts data for December will be posted tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. ET. Commodities edged lower following today’s data but equities show no significant change.
Shore, Cindy,
Consider that for the last 50-60 years we saw rapid population growth while aslo seeing an increase in energy available per capita.
We are now plateauing or in some cases seeing a decrease in energy available per capita.
At the same time we are seeing populations become saturated. How many more hundreds of millions of people could china or india really support.
This wonderful growth phase was a period when the global population doubled! another doubling would see a net decrease in the energy and food availability per capita. And would a world with 13 billion people really be such a pleasant place?
The longterm drivers of the global economic expansion for the last 50 years, population growth and increased energy consumption have both hit the wall. Further growth in either at this point provides a negative return.
Nom,
They should have built up a resistance to the iocane.
#25 Shore
Among others there is a big smoking hole in the constitution were the 4th amendment used to be that is not exactly right and just.
Political parties in glass houses should not throw stones.
#5 Grim,
Yes, but how likley is it that either of those programs will really end, if ever?
Rich,
They will end because they will suck us under if they don’t.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods moved up 0.2 percent in December, seasonally
adjusted. This rise followed a 1.8-percent advance in November and a 0.3-percent increase in
October. The index for finished goods less foods and energy was unchanged.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
Shore 38,
Whats your point? If they were concerned about sinking the ship they might have tried to avoid the iceberg in the first place.
The only debate now is how fast is the ship going down.
Shore,
if the current PTB believe that they can pull it off and be out of office before the main deck hits the water line there wont be a question.
“The only debate now is how fast is the ship going down.”
And whether there is any room in the lifeboats.
Cindy, property bonds are just kicking the can down the road, not that there is anything wrong with that.
NYS is deciding to canceling the STAR Propery tax rebate for homes valued at 1.5 million or more. Homes already got shut out of home buyer tax credit and crushed by lack of jumbo loans and high unemployment, this is kicking them while they are down.
BTW Liberty travel is doing Carribean deals, maybe Haiti stuff will get us a price break.
@44 – Thanks John.
ChiFi: (from last night)
You rip Ridgewood and then rent in Colts Neck?
What gives?
“The entire town needs to be leveled……”
Just ignore that I live in the Regal Republic of Montclair please.
Regarding “2 full generations have had the” housing only goes up” mantra reinforced from their daily experience.”
We’ve also had a situation where continual inflation was also “normal”…
People don’t seem to remember that. A co-worker was talking about “how much money” her in-laws had made on the house they bought in the 1950’s. When I told her it was mostly inflation, she refused to believe it.
(Dated myself here) but told her I remember a Hershey bar used to cost 5 cents, and a smaller one now often costs a dollar…
Too many people think an increasing number is a “profit”.
PGC (36)-
Arguing over pieces of a dead document don’t advance the claims of either side, especially when the actions of both sides were precisely what killed the document.
The Constitution is a piece of paper. The US is run by the Golden Rule: he who has the gold, rules.
Shore (38)-
I think it best that we be preparing for the “suck under” event.
It’s going to happen.
9:46 AM- four calls from underwater homeowners so far today.
Cindy (46)-
Those bonds are claims on future income streams that are as much of a fantasy as unicorns and centaurs.
I wouldn’t hold a SPG bond if you paid me.
Young (48)-
Even more amusing is the idea many people have that years of access to ever-expanding amounts of credit somehow added to their net worth.
The incredible thing is that this massive credit contraction event still has not convinced most of them otherwise. The idea that all their financed junk (including RE) is pretty much worthless- in relative terms- is too painful to bear.
anyone know why Zion bank has been headed straight up all month with no news?
The Condition,
What do they want? I’m guessing the can’t make the payments and they can’t sell for more than they owe, then what?
“anyone know why Zion bank has been headed straight up all month with no news?”
Don’t you know? They are the Chosen Bank.
Tosh,
you around today?
The Vix is heating up!!!
#57 – Yes
FDIC fees and regionals news
Me thinks Clot has his finger on the ultrashort trigger this morning. :P
#49 Clot
That piece of paper is the source of the problems and also the solution.
I agree with your premise that both sides are the same. I also agree with you that Christie is Jon C with less cash and will be just as effective. Christie will we all gung-ho up until the the first piece of legislation (the budget) hits the Assembly they shut down and say No.
Look at the fun Patterson is having trying to get the NY assembly moving. That is the NJ roadmap.
Come July, Christie will be tucked into his State provided Shorehouse thinking I got 4 years to kick back and enjoy this.
West (55)-
Short sale, pure and simple. My whole phone interview process is only for the purpose of determining whether the prospect is still entertaining a fantasy or is ready to act.
Still in denial? Have a nice day…but save my number.
sausage (47)-
Nope. Too busy these days to monitor that vial of nitro.
Clot,
On a brighter note?
Glazers could take £130m out of Manchester United next year
http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/jan/19/manchester-united-finance-the-glazers
The only thing Christie will do is make it harder for me to find a Tomato Pie in Trenton. On a positive note, the donut inventories should be increasing up here the more time he spends down there.
16.
“What is there to say about the endless barrage of insider sales that hasn’t been said for 9 straight months before. Insiders are selling into the neverending rally, as domestic mutual funds have no equity inflows, yet stocks somehow miraculously keep rising,”
“The bigger the lie the easier it is to believe”
Adolf Hitler
pgc (62)-
Funny that both O and any number of guvnors don’t see the legislative branch as a giant pack of assassins with knives at the ready.
I read a quote the other day about what the Roman senate did to Julius Caesar, and how no modern-day exec seems to think the same thing (figuratively speaking) can happen to them.
The NJ legislature is gonna be on Fatty like a pack of rabid dogs. Hope he’s got enough body mass to handle the onslaught.
PGC (65)-
They keep following the Leeds model, right into the toilet.
Just to think, they’ve already stripped 220mm out of that club. Within 24 months, there will be nothing there except a gang of lousy players and a giant pile of debt. The Glazers, however, will walk away with a buttload of loot.
…and the new ManU debt issue is supposedly oversubscribed.
The suckers just keep coming.
Ponzi, Ponzi…paging Mr. Ponzi…
“It has become increasingly clear since the prospectus was launched last week that its principal purpose is to allow the Glazers to take cash out of United to reduce the amounts they owe in “payments in kind” to hedge funds, which are running at a punitive £14.25% interest. Standing at £175m in the year to 30 June, 2008, the “payments” accrued £25m interest in the year to 30 June, 2009, and so stand now at over £200m. That debt is secured on the United shares the Glazer family own, and it is clear their financial priority is to use United’s giant turnover and profits to pay down that debt before the interest “rolls up” dramatically.”
43.
The only lifeboat is dehydrated and canned foods, a water purification system, arms, precious metals, and some other non US denominated assets.
Those that are renting and waiting patiently could be rewarded handsomely if and only if they can protect their jobs and the purchasing power of their cash.
Its not as simple as one would think. When the plug is pulled on this economy the world is going down with it.
“Yes, I think a run on the dollar is coming. A lot of people are saying this, including a man named Dmitri Orlov who recently came out with a book entitled “Reinventing Collapse” that compares the crash of the Soviet Union in the 1990s with what he believes is coming here within a short period of time. I heard that at the last meeting of the G20 the U.S. asked Russia and China if they would agree to an orderly devaluation of the dollar, and the answer was “Nyet.”
So something big is likely to happen. I don’t know what it will be. A worst case scenario is a wild hyperinflation of the dollar and a total collapse of the monetary system, followed by skyrocketing gasoline prices, etc., and another Great Depression. But the Federal Reserve is too smart just to let that happen, so they will likely try in some way to keep the economy afloat while engaging in an orderly devaluation that will reduce the overall levels of debt. There are many ways to tackle this but it will require strong central planning and maybe even “monetary reform.”
The possible scenarios are endless and much depends on the political will of Obama and Congress as to how much control they can exert over the financiers. I am hesitant to predict total gloom and doom, though it is certainly a possibility. One thing that could trigger it would be if the U.S. can no longer buy oil from abroad. That depends also on whether “Peak Oil” really exists or not. But clearly big changes are coming. Our country has become so fragile. Most of our population is a month away from starvation when you look at the food pipeline.”
Richard Cook. Richard C. Cook is a former U.S Treasury analyst who also worked in the Carter White House and for NASA and writes on public policy issues. His new book is We Hold These Truths: The Hope of Monetary Reform (Tendril Press 2009). His website is http://www.richardccook.com He is a member of the U.S. Basic Income Guarantee Network and has been an adviser to Congressman Dennis Kucinich and the American Monetary Institute http://www.monetary.org
I see lot of more houses suddenly coming on market in last week. I think Sellers are trying to get listing so they can benefit from April deadline.
Grim – Is there any stat/chart on Inventory?
How bad will FHA requiring a 5% downpayment and increasing the closing costs and fees hurt the housing market? What percent of loans are 3.5% down with the closing costs rolled into the loan?
The Gov. Chris Christie era: Public employees face a new day
Star Ledger
The task is not hopeless. Thanks to our desperate state, the two parties are in rare agreement that we need to shrink government.
Public employees will be the first target. The opulent benefits many of them enjoy today can’t be justified, given that few taxpayers can match them.
We can’t afford to pay beat cops $100,000 a year, as we do today in some towns. We can’t afford to give teachers raises that average nearly 5 percent, as we did last year.
And we certainly can’t afford to give cash to public workers for unused sick time. That’s just nuts.
http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2010/01/the_gov_chris_christie_era_pub.html
“Yes, I think a run on the dollar is coming. A lot of people are saying this, including a man named Dmitri Orlov who recently came out with a book entitled “Reinventing Collapse” that compares the crash of the Soviet Union in the 1990s with what he believes is coming here within a short period of time. I heard that at the last meeting of the G20 the U.S. asked Russia and China if they would agree to an orderly devaluation of the dollar, and the answer was “Nyet.”
So something big is likely to happen. I don’t know what it will be. A worst case scenario is a wild hyperinflation of the dollar and a total collapse of the monetary system, followed by skyrocketing gasoline prices, etc., and another Great Depression. But the Federal Reserve is too smart just to let that happen, so they will likely try in some way to keep the economy afloat while engaging in an orderly devaluation that will reduce the overall levels of debt. There are many ways to tackle this but it will require strong central planning and maybe even “monetary reform.”
The possible scenarios are endless and much depends on the political will of Obama and Congress as to how much control they can exert over the financiers. I am hesitant to predict total gloom and doom, though it is certainly a possibility. One thing that could trigger it would be if the U.S. can no longer buy oil from abroad. That depends also on whether “Peak Oil” really exists or not. But clearly big changes are coming. Our country has become so fragile. Most of our population is a month away from starvation when you look at the food pipeline.”
Richard Cook
For my fellow cheapos out there, Washington DC is a cheap weekend vacation spot. Free admission to the museums and zoo, on the weekends the metro fares are about 60% of the rush hour rates, and since we stayed in silver springs MD, the public parking garagages are free from 7 PM Friday to 7 AM monday. (I got up at 6:30 am Monday to feed the meter).
Tosh,
I have a tech question for you if you are up for it.
would you mind contacting me at 1elttek at gmail
Looks like my deal will happen early Feb.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1080-Tullo-Farm-Rd-Bridgewater-NJ-08807/2134361337_zpid/
Can anyone recommend interior designers, furniture stores, landscapers, etc. in the Bridgewater area?
36 PGC-
Hey dummy, nobody here is madly in love with either party. We’re just exalting in the fact that now NEITHER party will have much luck getting anything done.
Sadly, the best thing that can happen in Washington is NOTHING.
I personally do not think GWB is the posterchild of the Republican party going forward and they are the lesser of two evils. They do well when they are the minority party keeping the Dems in check.
79. Dont buy furniture from Raymour and Flanagan. They are as honest as the Fed Reserve.
Nice house. Can the perimeter be defended easily?
#78 – Mail sent
Raymour and Flangan is actually more honest than Seamans and Levitz was which is saying nothing.
What percent of loans are 3.5% down with the closing costs rolled into the loan?
79 – I’ve never been to it (never been to a R&F) but there’s a Raymour and Flanigan Clearance Center in Bridgewater.
gasior’s in skillman, nj if you don’t care about money. duckloe in portland, pa if you do.
SG 73 Seeing the same in my area. It will take some time for a trend to show up in the overall numbers. This is also the traditional time to list for spring. What I would watch is if there is a big jump compared to prior numbers for this time period. Month or 2 should tell the tale.
[85] ruggles
If you go to the R+F outlet, make sure you can get it home. They use subs for deliveries and these guys have a spotty reputation.
FWIW, I won’t shop R+F. Got the runaround once from them, cancelled my order, and won’t go back.
Stu 61 Maybe not Clot but others do.
#79 A. West,
We bought living room furniture from Raymour and Flanagan in Bridgewater with no problems. 3 years of kids abusing them and they are still in good shape. The woman who helped us was a top 30 semi-finalist for Design Star.
We also bought some pieces from Ethan Allen in Watchung.
Macys furniture stores actually have pretty good sales from time to time and good service.
Stickley is also nice
[81] al gore
True that re: Raymour and Flanigan. I couldn’t believe the lines they were pitching at me. Obvious lies, obvious promises that they couldn’t keep if they wanted to. And don’t get me going on the delivery subcontractors.
I think I tried to stifle my laughing. Not sure if I was successful. Actually told them to take me off their mailing list because of all the crap I was still getting. Very happy that I didn’t get taken to their cleaners (but then the wife went to Pottery Barn, probably just to spite me for shooting down her R+F orders, so I wound up paying anyway).
Just go to R&F find a floor sample and spill some invisibile ink on it, then buy it for a song load it on your van and by the time you get home the ink disappears. Very similar to dropping broken glass into your drink for a free meal.
Try Royal Furniture in Port Jervis NY, no sales tax grandfathered been around for ever. Their delivery guys are great, no subs. They even sent a guy to fix something under warranty a couple of years down the road.
The NJfurniture&worldendingreport.
#89 correction
Wasn’t R & F. We went to Bassett on 22 in Bridgewater for the living room. Bought mattresses from R & F since they were the cheapest for what we wanted and had free deliverey.
Some how that doesn’t seem to make sense.
Maybe the world is not ending or the furniture is a wast of time.
John 92 as always entertaining. I guess it’s a move.
WTF is going on this morn down big time & the boys on the street got the election result they wanted last night.
Bicep (97):
Capitulation at the top?
I thing the new FHA rules are causing the pain. You won’t read that in the WSJ or at Yahoo finance, but if it is end of 3.5% down and the rolling of closing costs into the loan, well look out for what remains of our economy.
Of course tomorrow, the feds will announce a new FHA organization to kick the can further down the road. Melt up will continue.
RE 97, street is praying for a short term downturn, 2010 restricted stock bonus prices in a week or two and you know they all put into 401K in one shot out of cash bonus. After that the GS, MS and JPM boys say rally on rest of year.
Cindy says:
anuary 20, 2010 at 8:08 am
“Property Bonds Beat Corporates as Simon Sells: Credit Markets”
“Real estate borrowers are leading the rally in U.S. corporate bonds as investors add to bets property companies will weather an increase in commercial mortgage defaults.”
So does this push CRE losses further and further down the road?
C: This information relates to the secondary market, not the new issue market. It might be easier to understand with stocks. With an IPO, a company issues stock and the cash generated (i.e. the proceeds) goes to the company coffers. Stock out…money in….
Then the stock trades on the NASDAQ/NYSE et al in the secondary markets (primary being the IPO). Whether the stock trades at $5, $10, $15 has no direct benefit to the company in that it does not create money for the company or cash flow into the company. What the stock price reflects is the overall secondary market opinion of the value of the company given the collective opinion. The higher prices for securities of a company create an IMPLIED OPPORTUNITY.
One direct impact would be when the company chooses to re-enter the primary market and issue more stock. To the extent that the stock price is $15 instead of $5, the amount of cash per share generated by the company is greater.
OK – start from the beginning in the Bloomberg article you posted….of all the debt trading of corporate issuers, those of REITs have performed the best. It does not reflect actual money flowing to the companies, but rather the collective opinion by the market (secondary) of their future prospects. To the extent that bond prices rise, that means that #1 the interest rate on a theoretical new issue bond would be lower (i.e. implied opportunity) and #2 there appears to be depth to the market for that type of security (i.e. implied opportunity)…….the “kick the can” means that IF the REIT wanted to raise more money by issuing a bond, they have a better chance of doing it…..the observations and conclusion from that article are only implied…it is not an actual kicking-of-the-can…..
Does that explanation even make remote sense?
The markets are down because Cramer said there would be a “”gigantic rally” if Brown won.
Stu 98
“Of course tomorrow, the feds will announce a new FHA organization to kick the can further down the road. Melt up will continue.”
You are probably right. I have said many things to that respect sarcastically only to find to my dismay they do it.
chifi, it relates to primary also as Simon was able to come to market with favorable terms recently.
Chifi I am jonesing for a new junk bond today, it has been 24 hours since my last trade. Please stop me before I buy again.
Sorry I skimmed the Simon article…the bulk of the article was about conditions, but Simon actually did issue…..
Remember with fixed income: it is not just the cost, but also the size of the deal. It is a very idiosyncratic market and difficult to understand….
JJ: here…it will take your mind off it….
Letterman Top Ten…all suck except #1 & #2
David Letterman – NY Jets Top Ten
Tosh,
check the e-mail address, i never got your email. its kettle1 spelled in reverse
Sean 101 I remember him saying yesterdays rally was because of it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XaPsenS5Ic
The Situation Plus 40 years of Cheese Fries…..
#106 – My bad, I sent again.
“Try Royal Furniture in Port Jervis NY” – that’s why I recommended Duckloe–no tax if shipped to NJ, they knock the price off from the discount price already on the thing, their own delivery guys, and they never used to charge shipping, but that might have changed.
Nom–good to know about the R&F clearance center, in case I get the urge to walk in since we are planning a couch upgrade. doubt I’d buy there anyway but you never know.
My bond of the day, almost a 12% yeild.
87161CAG0
Description SYNOVUS FINL CORP SUB NT 5.12500% 06/15/2017
$67.5
#87 randyj5nj
Dummy is a bit unnecessary. I would disagree that there are a few in here that are passionate about one side or the other. Go and have a chat with james.
The GOP left a lot of scorched earth behind GWB and with the the internal battle within the GOP getting uglier, they do not look like a nice prospect going forward. Somehow I can’t see Michael Steele remaining much longer. With the Tea party tasting fresh blood, the March primaries will give you your posterchildren. Good Luck with it.
The GOP has gone beyond the role of “keeping the dems in check” and have gone with the party line of Block Vote No, regardless of the topic.
The funny thing was at the start of the health care reform process, all were at the table and even the insurance companies were behind the reform. Then the GOP decided to use the NO tactic to break the administration and the dems called an audible. The play is still running and some form of Health care will pass in the next two weeks and then the the Dems will sit back and say “Ok, you want to fix it?”.
Beyond that, the Mexican Standoff will continue.
safe (74)-
It’s the kill shot. Too bad the stricter requirements will solve nothing, since the worst and most fraudulent loans have already been funded and defaulted.
Thanks for the R&F comments. Will look warily. Have bought from Macy’s Furniture before, with mixed results. Seems that one should only buy Macy’s when more than 50% off sales happen.
Shore,
Stickley is nice, and might fit our design goals. Price is really high though, it seems. The place at the Watchung circle sells it, but only shows some of their lines. There’s a place in Wayne, Bograds I think, that says it stocks a full line, I’m thinking of visiting after we close the deal. Don’t know if I want to spend that much on furniture though.
freedy, #15
Iselin now has 9 pages of pre-foreclosures. Until very recently, there weren’t many listings in RealtyTrac in Iselin – seemed to be the same 20 or 30 still there, every time I looked, which was just once in a while. And now – kapow.
Anyone buying furniture right now should look for these features:
1. Big enough to barricade doors.
2. Wide enough to cover windows when tipped upright.
3. Thick enough to stop or slow small arms fire.
4. Fragile enough to break apart easily for building fires.
John (99)-
As always, an organized shank…to be followed by a rigged-up rally.
To the benefit of no one except the traders in on the rig-up.
A West,
Congrats. She is absolutely beautiful.
Also, looks like the perfect place for a gtg.
Tosh,
got it, thanks
“Dont know if I want to spend that much on furniture though.”
When the USG destroys the dollar and all you have saved is worthless, you will be glad you did.
If you have a wood burning stove you can always burn the furniture for heat.
John (112)-
I’d rather bathe in shit.
79- Flemington Dept. Store – it’s been around “forever” and they have a LOT of stuff to look at, plus catalogs. Almost too much to look at. I don’t know if they have interior decorating services but I do love their prices and they are very pleasant to work with. Most of my furniture comes from their store. I hope they stay in business “forever”.
Shore,
In your mortgage free status and I presume sitting on cash are you not concerned that we could be facing a formal dollar devaluation or worse in the coming year or 2?
Furniture? Go to the ABC Bronx Warehouse Outlet near Hunts Point….
don’t go to the one in Hackensack…no deals….
Don’t get put off by the hoity toity crap….go find the deals in the Bronx…think of a scratch and dent place…
http://www.abchome.com/systemPage/home/tabid/190/Default.aspx
Are we talking about the bond or the NY Jets.
Bottom line on bond, if you think US Govt will prop them up, a 10K bond is 67.5, you get a good coupon a few years and autmatic $3,300 long term cap gain upon maturity.
The Condition-Code Red says:
January 20, 2010 at 11:50 am
John (99)-
As always, an organized shank…to be followed by a rigged-up rally.
To the benefit of no one except the traders in on the rig-up.
A West
ABC Carpet & Home Outlet in South Hackensack
Bograds for Stickley, it is expensive but beautiful and well made.
Macys should be 50% at all times. Quality is so so one step above firewood.
If the sub damages the delivery in any way DO NOT SIGN. Tell them they are quite welcome to pack it back up and bring it back to the warehouse.
We had a great time with a speedba11 add1ct delivering a king size bedroom set, on his own to a 4th floor condo from the Huffman Koos liquidation.
The Condition-Code Red says:
January 20, 2010 at 11:55 am
John (112)- I’d rather bathe in shit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5N_I9j81F4
Make sure you aren’t drinking any hot beverages…..NJAR Propaganda!
10 Real Estate Facts for 2010
1) First-time buyers are taking action, and for good reason.
2) Homes in the Garden State are a good investment.
3) It’s a great time to trade up.
4) Waiting for prices to drop could cost you.
5) Owning a home in New Jersey builds long-term wealth.
6) It’s a prime time to buy a second home.
7) There is still time to take advantage of historically low interest rates.
8) Good news for sellers: New Jersey consumers are “buying in” to real estate.
9) Lower prices make homes more affordable.
10) There are 50,000 REALTORS® in New Jersey that can provide you with localized information.
http://newjersey.realestaterama.com/2010/01/15/10-real-estate-facts-for-2010-ID0347.html
117 The Condition-Code Red
Anyone buying real estate now should look for one feature:
bomb shelter
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/allied-van-lines-announces-42nd-annual-magnet-states-report-80594027.html
“Michigan experienced the highest net relocation losses (more outbound than inbound shipments), followed by Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and California. A troubled auto industry and housing market most likely continued to negatively affect relocations to Michigan, as Allied Van Lines’ outbound shipments of 2,210 were about double its inbound shipments of 1,019 for the state. Illinois experienced the second largest net relocation loss with 942 more outbound than inbound moves, closely followed by Pennsylvania with a net relocation loss of 854, and California with a loss of 459.”
“50,000” REALTORS (TM) IN NJ”
Wow, that’s a lot of dues. How many are actually worthwhile?
A lot of people can’t tell the difference between good furniture and bad.
Check out the wood joints and look for dove tail and dowel joints. Screws over nails. If anything has hot glue gun residue on it, look again.
The Gator family is still living with cheap college quality (IKEA) furniture but Junior got the high-end stuff as a gift at birth. Canadian made Morigeau Lepine. This stuff is top notch and definitely built to last a lifetime and then some. Too bad they specialize in childrens’ furniture.
I think couches you can go lower grade since you’ll replace them periodically anyway. Cabinets and tables you really can’t skimp on.
It is also something like one agent per 150 residents.
Home sick and watching the CBS 12:00 News. After the commercial they’re going to show us how much Rex Ryan eats in a day. The teaser says “It’s Alot!”.
Never skimp on wood.
RUwaiting 130 Not to worry about to many spilled drinks excluding this group. The sheeple are lapping this stuff up. By the way what are they smoking. Same stuff as the sheep.
#
#
chicagofinance says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
January 20, 2010 at 12:20 pm
I finally figured out who John is….
John Mayer…
OK, to be fair, I’m sure at some point John Mayer discusses his discs in the new issue of Rolling Stone — but when that CD chatter is bookended with statements like, “Blowing me off is the new sucking me off,” and “Before I make coffee, I’ve seen more buttholes than a proctologist does in a week,” it’s easy to understand why a sentence talking about his artistic inspirations gets lost in the shuffle.
The most revealing (and by revealing, obviously I mean inevitably most discussed and dissected) admission has to do with his ex-girlfriend, Jennifer Aniston. “I’ve never really gotten over it,” he says of the split. “It was one of the worst times of my life. I have this weird feeling, a pride thing, for the people I’ve has relationships with. What would I be saying to Jen, who I think is f***ing fantastic, if I said to her, ‘I don’t dislike you. In fact, I like you extremely well?’”
To be fair, Jennifer isn’t the only ex he still has feelings for — “All I want to do now is f*** the girls I’ve already f***ed,” John admits — which isn’t all that shocking since his sexual history reads like the table of contents in the Guide To Hollywood’s Hottest Twentysomethings: Jennifer Love Hewitt, Jessica Simpson, Minka Kelly are my three faves.
Considering his history you might not be surprised to learn that John has a hard time getting invested in new prospects. “Do you think it’s going to take meeting someone who I admire more than I admire myself? But isn’t it also about a beautiful v-gina? Don’t they also have to have v-gina that you could pitch a tent on and just camp out on for, like, a weekend? The Joshua Tree of v-ginas? I’ll be happy when I close out this life-partner thing. Think of how much mental capacity I’m using to meet the right person so I can stop giving a f*** about it.”
Much of that time, it would seem, is focused on loving the person he is most enamored with: himself. “I am the new generation of mast-rbater. I’ve seen it all. I have mast-rbated myself out of serious problems in my life. I have excused myself at the oddest times so as to not make mistakes. If only Tiger Woods knew when to jerk off. It has a true market value, like gold bullion.”
Red 16- I understand about the insider selling but I also think that there is a larger stock option problem. These directors seem of have an unlimited supply of options and they sell to hedge. If Ralph Lauren wants 100,000 shares he gets them. He can maintain his equity.
There’s also a decent and big furniture consignment shop in Hopewell. Got our kitchen island there.
http://www.decoratorsconsignment.com/
rex ryan eats 7,000 calories a day and weighs 350 pounds, not that there is anything wrong with that.
Helthcare could be improved by simply implementing some common sense changes. Medicare Part D Prescription Drugs are a Classic example. Save a fortune with the following;
1. Move Part D like Parts A & B back to Non Profit Government Control. Couple this with negotiated reduced drug prices as is done in non dysfunctional countries. This alone reduces cost and stops people from going crazy each year trying to determine what insurer covers what.
2. Ban drug advertisement and require that the savings be used to reduce drug prices. Advertising costs are greater then R&D and will achieve major savings.
3. Have the FDA require that all Generic Drugs be completely identical to Brand Name Drugs so that side effects are identical. This includes the exact amount of active and inactive ingredients.
chi, #139
link?
that does sound errily like our John
therm 76
“….skyrocketing gasoline prices..”
Does anyone think that this is why Buffett bought a railroad?
It’s driving me nuts. I’m trying to understand why. Somehow I think he knows that transportation of goods is gonna be by rail (high oil price)
Or are there many reasons?
Just wondering.
sl
John 140 – Are you just a regular suburban house frau watching the 12:00 news and then settling in to eat bon bons while watching The Young and The Restless?
Still:
My investment club owns two railroads. Buffet sees recovery in the economy leading to another oil squeeze. Anyone who invests in the rails knows that there is huge correlation between rail profits and oil prices. There is little more to the story than this. If you watched Buffets comments at the end of IOUSA, you would see how high he is on the economy. Quite frankly, I don’t see him as an oracle nor am I enamored by his performance over the last decade or so. He made his name and millions by buying insurance companies 40 or so years ago, which happened to be by far the best performing sector over the first 20 years in which he invested. Ever since then, he simply wields his size to his advantage.
Thanks Stu, 147
It makes sense and I feel the same way about him, too. :)
sl
Gator…That was the best hummus in the world.
Here are some ways you could indulge in 7000 calories a day. These are all rough estimates:
Plan 1: The Bacon Day
Breakfast
Two eggs with bacon and cheese on a roll with ketchup and hot sauce. Starbucks whole milk Venti Latte. 16 oz. glass of OJ. Total: 1100 calories.
Lunch
Wendy’s Triple Baconator, large fries, large Frosty dairy dessert, large Dr. Pepper. Total: 2700 calories.
Snack
10 slices of bacon. Total: 500 calories.
Dinner
1/2 of a bacon explosion, can of Coke. Total: 2700 calories.
Plan 2: All Taco Bell
Breakfast*
Grande Breakfast Burrito, Breakfast Quesadilla with Sausage, Hash Brown Nuggets. Total: 1130 calories.
Lunch
Two Volcano Tacos, a Baja Beef Gordita, one order of Nachos BellGrande, one order of Cinnamon Twists and a large Pepsi. Total: 2100 Calories.
Dinner
Two Crunchy Tacos, a Crunchwrap Supreme, a Grilled Stuft Burrito, a 1/2-pound Nacho Crunch Burrito, a Caramel Apple Empanada and a large Pepsi. Total: 2700 calories.
Fourthmeal
An order of Volcano Nachos and a Crunchy Taco. Total: 1150 calories.
*- At participating locations in test markets only.
Plan 3: Just a bunch of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts
All day long
35 Krispy Kreme Doughnuts
Plan 4: One meal at Outback Steakhouse
Appetizer
Bloomin’ Onion. Total: 1560 calories
Main course
Baby Back Ribs with Aussie Fries. Total: 2310 Calories.
Drinks
1219 Calories worth of casual-dining awesomeness to get you drunk enough to make you forget you’re consuming 7000 calories in one sitting at Outback Steakhouse. No rules, just right.
Dessert
Chocolate Thunder from Down Under. Total: 1911 Calories.
__________________
Here are some ways you could indulge in 7000 calories a day. –
Just follow christie around and feed on what he drops.
you guys are bad,, give chris a break,, guy
just got their
what is the pizza joint in the area,,,
should do well
Snack
10 slices of bacon.
Also, when asked about the primary reason for the timing of their home purchase, 46 percent of first-time buyers said it was just the right time.
—-
I find that statistic from the NJAR press release disturbing on a fundamental level. The other 54% thought what exactly?
Lunch Pizza for CC? I’m going with Candela’s Deluxe large.
Freedy,
The wait at De Lorenzo’s will take even longer!
http://candelapizza.com/candela-gourmet-pizza.html
Anecdata from Florida:
A friend just got back from FL, and was looking at condos (Delray, Hutchinson Island, etc.).
He says the market is depressed as hell. Foreclosures everywhere. Probably more depressed than last year.
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2010/01/nj_unemployment_rate_passes_10/2765/comments-2.html
N.J. unemployment rate rises to 10.1 percent
By Lisa Fleisher/Statehouse Bureau
January 20, 2010, 11:34AM
The New Jersey unemployment rate cracked the 10 percent mark in December after hovering just below it for several months.
The state lost 2,300 jobs, including 1,100 private-sector jobs, to bring the unemployment rate to 10.1 percent, up from 9.7 percent in November, and 6.8 percent in December 2008, the state labor department said today.
job-fair-manville.jpgAlexandra Pais/New Jersey Local News ServicePeople wait in line to talk to company representatives during a job fair at the VFW in Manville on Jan. 13.Manufacturing, construction and financial activities sectors lost the most jobs, while other sectors gained.
Veto, please graph my happy days per month(very easily ascertained) against Florida’s average number of depressed months since peak.
At intersection will be the bottom of the market.
159: No “probably” about it.
[160] terry
Hope and Change.
Harkin had a quip about politics. He said the country is like a car. Put it in “R” if you want to go back and put it in “D” if you want to go forward.
Maybe someone should tell Harkin about that cliff he is “D”ing toward.
#79 A.West
Hi… new to posting. always try to read up since you all seem to have a good grasp of the RE mkt, fixed income inv’ting and all sorts of other interrelated stuff.
Regarding the interior design – check out Fabric Collection on Rt.22 in N.Plainfield. They do curtains, drapes, reupholstery and can recommend some really great designers that work locally. Very affordable too!
Cue J story w/ obligatory curtains and drapes reference?
(i.e. matching carpet)
This is so cute. Somebody reads njrereport.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/harvardbusiness?sid=H02713005d6002a5abd7fc0593b28eb8f
Pat –
candela is one of the best pies around.
And here i thought it was a secret spot.
The wait at De Lorenzo’s will take even longer! –
Palermos is better anyway. Don’t tell CC!!!
And nobody knows if you ask him to put mustard on the tomato pie, it’s like a Work of Art.
Nothing like a Happy Birthday mustard on tomato pie with fresh garlic and fresh oregano.
relo,
dont forget the hardwood
that is why I like snookie, short dresses and she always goes commando, you never have to get suprised about the drapes curtains thing, however word of advice in snookies case the hairy end that smells bad is not her head
Nom, 164
I’d rather “idle” with “I” for Independent.
How is it not nearly enough people recognize how screwed we are??
sl
This reuse of the Hitler clip never gets tired.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aQCiRjvZY&feature=player_embedded
john: perhaps you could explain and expound
on that smell.
And to think I blamed myself for asking in 166.
Don’t go south of the mouth with NJ trash.
A. West thats a really nice house, you got a good deal there.
The New Jersy Pizza and Raymour/Flannigan Report!!!!
clot, here’s the remington
http://www.remington.com/products/firearms/shotguns/model-870/model-870-express-tactical.aspx
question about weapons: Where do you guys keep them if you had young kids? Have a small safe for the sig sauer, but what about the shotgun?
and do you leave the shotgun loaded? gun seller told me if you don’t, you’ve got “the heaviest paperweight possible.”
#115 – there used to be a furniture store in Erie Pa that discounted Stickley significantly. Don’t recall the name of the place but you can probably Google it.
Yikes
DO NOT KEEP LOADED WEAPONS IN THE HOUSE IF YOU HAVE CHILDREN!!!!!
If you feel so unsafe that you have a loaded weapon in the house then move or buy a few Rottweilers.
This is not colombia or bagdad
West-
Go to the Bowery NYC for lighting fixtures, chandeliers, ceiling fans, etc. Be sure to be the first customer in the morning as most owners their are superstitious that if the first customer doesn’t buy it’s bad luck. Haggling is expected. I got my fixtures at 1/2 price that way.
there
I now get my furniture custom made. I have to wait for it, but it is hand-built of solid hardwood. I’m waiting for the six weeks to pass before our new DR table and 10 chairs arrives.
Listen to Mr. Hyde.
Odds of your kid blowing his head off is much greater than the odds of you needing to defend yourself in your home.
Yikes,
If you really feel the need, then have a finger print access gun safe next to the bed. You can get one for a rifle/shotgun sized cabinet (its going to cost you $$$).
http://www.opticsplanet.net/gun-vault-full-size-gun-safe.html
Lets also be realistic here. Unless you have substantial weapons training to the point of muscle memory, then the scenario of you jumping up and grabbing your shotgun in the middle of the night and facing down an intruder is unlikely to work out in your favor. In the real world you are more likely to end up drawing down on a family member or being heavily uncoordinated and disoriented. you never want to be in either of those situations with a loaded weapon.
If you are seriously considering this scenario then get the right training. you spent 1K+ on that sig so you should be able to afford the appropriate training. Also make sure you are VERY aware of the guns laws in your state (NJ) because if you are not careful you can end up being guilt of manslaughter or worse (see a qualified legal professional).
Once again if you are really worried about the intruder/home invasion scenario get a large noisy dog. The dog will naturally alert to strangers approaching the house but will not alert to known family members within the home.
I read there was also almost an earthquake in San Diego last Sunday, turns out it was just Rex Ryan walking up and down on the sidelines during the Jets game.
Yikes,
if you have guns AND children in the home, familiarize then with the weapons. You both take away the “Unknown/Forbidden” attraction as well as teach them how to not hurt themselves or someone else if they are in contact with the weapon.
Having weapons in the house and NOT having taught the child the very basics (as age appropriate) of proper weapons handling and respect greatly reduces the odds of an accident ever occurring.
181.
That question is eerily similiar to a COINTELPRO scenario.
You should secure your guns so that kids dont have access. Lock them up and keep the ammo separate and locked. The goal is self dependence not relying on public services to keep your family safe and fed. If you really have a home invasion threat the idea of a guard dog is a good one, but be prepared to let it go should there be a food shortage.
“This is not Columbia or Baghdad”
It is in Detroit and So Cal.
Yikes
also become very familiar with this book
NEW JERSEY GUN LAW GUIDE by Evan F. Nappen
AL,
The issue of safely and effectively being able to defend one’s self is a complicated one when firearms are involved and more so when children AND firearms are involved. It should be answered on a situational basis with the input of the appropriate subject material experts. An anonymous blog is NOT the place to do that, with the exception of saying ITS COMPLEX, get the right training and be very aware of the variables from laws to child safety to effectiveness etc.
An armed and vigilant citizenry, ever on guard against abuses of governmental power and encroaching tyranny, is America’s greatest virtue. Unlike our European brethren, we’ve never created a Hitler, a Lenin, a Stalin, or even a Napoleon; our people are not such easy marks. Threatened Americans learn quickly, and fight back. Airline passengers fought the terrorists on 911, and an American crew just took back their ship from thuggish pirates. Government must not deprive the citizens of the means to effectively defend their liberty against the gravest threat of all: governmental tyranny.
New Jersey Republican Assemblyman Michael Carroll, representing the 25th District
I am trying to wrap my head around the AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax). Can anyone explain it in somewhat simple terms. I can’t seem to figure it out reading wikipedia or any other site on the web.
Correction!
Having weapons in the house and
NOT</Strike) having taught the child the very basics (as age appropriate) of proper weapons handling and respect greatly reduces the odds of an accident ever occurring.Correction!,again
Having weapons in the house and
NOThaving taught the child the very basics (as age appropriate) of proper weapons handling and respect greatly reduces the odds of an accident ever occurring.Fly0over 186,
who do you use, what are prices like?
what is the best place to buy used furniture?
” AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax). Can anyone explain it in somewhat simple term”
If one works, and earns more than is “fair” compared to others, one loses deductions and pays taxes based on the AMT rate. Hue ensuring that there is more money available to provide free education to illegals and less available for the children of the productive members of society.
Hue= thus
The healthcare bill is dead according to Barney “Paint me purple” Frank.
“”To my surprise, he took my call and I asked him why on earth couldn’t the House simply pass the Senate version of the health care bill. He told me straight up that the votes weren’t there to pass the Senate bill. He said that labor is totally against it, the abortion caucus is against it, and more than a few progressives were against it.”
http://rawstory.com/2010/01/we-votes-pass-healthcare-barney-frank-reportedly/
anyone talk to their financial advisor about the IRA-Roth conversion?
sounds like anyone who can do it (ie: has the $) is doing it.
is that in line with what people here are doing?
Shore Guy (AMT):
Don’t forget to add…once one becomes rich enough to exploit complex loopholes in the US tax code, AMT all but disappears.
“Government must not deprive the citizens of the means to effectively defend their liberty against the gravest threat of all: governmental tyranny.”
Cool!
This guy supports my right to buy a nuclear warhead.
AMT is simlar to your first night in prision, you know what is coming but it is much worse.
I lost my deduction for children.
RE Tax Deduction
Most home equity loans deduction
Only poor people have right to have children and pay property tax.
Interesting enough in Germany they only give a large deduction for wealthy folkds to have kids as poor people kids go on welfare and don’t pay any taxes.
195: Don’t complicate it. Go online and google our Treasury Secy’s explanation.
Yikes,
From what I read, it’s almost a no brainer, but research is necessary to determine the best way to handle the conversion. If done properly and your future investments in the ROTH tank, you can back out and avoid paying the tax to convert it. I read some great articles on it but it is almost as complex of an issue as fighting away AMT.
I do remember that this year is a particularly good year for most to do the conversion since you most likely have little gains to pay tax on. Also, I think you can pay the tax on the conversion over two years.
Nom could explain more for sure, but a google search would work as well.
Just keep in mind, there is no guarantee that the non-taxable status of a ROTH will remain this way. Our gubmint once raided security boxes at the banks for peoples gold. It is never different this time.
AMT = what you pay due to the loss of deductibility of lots of stuff when you become “rich” and live in a high cost, high tax state like NJ. It makes doing your taxes maddening, even with Geithner endorsed Turbo Tax at your side.
Yikes
A low end gunsafe with a key lock (stack on) is a good cheap alternative to the high end ones. mine is bolted to the basement wall on two sides. (less chance of leveraging it off the wall) Plus it acts as a deterent to the kiddies. Keep ammo locked up separately.
Agree with Hyde I had a high quality education guns from the age of 4 on. I have always maintained a healthy respect for them knowing what they are capable of.
don’t know who said but if break ins are a worry get a trained dog. Our shepherd intimidates most people just by walking past them or barking. If they only knew he was afraid of cats and has a high probability of licking you before biting you. You’ll never get to the gun in time and most like injure yourself or someone in your family.
That said there is always a 20 gauge handy in our house and only the wife and I know where the 3 rounds are. Just told her to make sure they are stacked up before shooting and she always knows when i’m coming home from business.
199- try craigslist.
208 “Just keep in mind, there is no guarantee that the non-taxable status of a ROTH will remain this way. ”
Direct ROTH taxation is very unlikely, but indirect taxation is another story. For example, state university may charge your kids full tuition if you have ROTH (no tuition if you have spent your money), your SS may be taxed more heavily if you have ROTH etc etc. You are enemy of Oba..eh I mean the people if you have ROTH.
Stu,
Indeed. Get wealthy enough and get exempt. How does it feel to be in the inverse dounut hole of taxation.
Mmmmm Thin Mints
175 = 7000cal
Stu-Shore,
Can you earn out of AMT? If so, at what income level?
Earning out of AMT? The whole point is to screw anyone that works or tries to save via the muni bond route.
Doyle,
I can’t answer that one, but I’m fairly certain that AMT will disappear once you get into a higher tax bracket. Isn’t AMT taxed at 23-28% or so. I would think once you start paying above 28% it wouldn’t be needed anymore. Of course, this is just a guess.
RE: AMT, after figuring your “regular tax, AMT then limits, eliminates or adds elements of income and deductions to arrive at at a “new” taxable income base. As a bonus the differences can carryover to impact future years. At the risk of oversimplifying, in planning, it is often helpful do do the reverse of your “regular” tax tips (accelerate income and postpone deductions). Whichever tax liability is higher, you pay. Too many variables to get into specifics.
Heres a great little video you real estate agents should use when your prospective buyers sit on the fence.
http://i872.photobucket.com/albums/ab288/HOPE-NOSIS/holerun.gif
#217
Thanks Stu, I don’t have a clue how it works, just know I’m firmly in it. I thought John mentioned “earning out” at one point in the past.
Doyle,
One “earns out” by structuring income, building wealth offshore, and a host of other ways Nom could explain very well for $500/hr.
Nice one Shore Guy!
Is/was B.O’s stinking administration really this fricken stupid?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/20/AR2010012002049.html
Intel chief faults questioning of bomb suspect
By EILEEN SULLIVAN
The Associated Press
Wednesday, January 20, 2010; 11:26 AM
WASHINGTON — The nation’s top intelligence official says the Christmas Day airline bombing suspect should have been treated as a high-value terror suspect when the plane landed. That would have meant questioning by special interrogators rather than civilian law officers.
Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab (OO’-mahr fah-ROOK’ ahb-DOOL’-moo-TAH’-lahb) was interviewed by federal law enforcement investigators when Northwest Flight 253 landed in Detroit after he allegedly tried to detonate a homemade bomb sneaked through airport security in Nigeria and Amsterdam. Abdulmutallab is being held in a prison about 50 miles outside of Detroit.
Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair told a Senate committee Wednesday that he was not consulted on whether Abdulmutallab should be questioned by the recently created High-Value Detainee Interrogation Group.
snip
How does one know if they fall into the AMT tax bracket?
#221
Understood, Shore… understood.
224: From 6251 – gotta do the math. Or not.
Doyle,
I hear from somethat if one wants to prepare for the AMT, one starts by sitting on baby carrots, and largly works onself up to larger firm veggies so that by the time the real impact of the AMT hits, one is, umm, one has adapted to it in such a way as to reduce the pain of compliance.
or Form. Not a bracket, it’s a whole separate calc.
Justin,
As one starts completing one’s tax form, one suddenly realizes that things that used to get deducted no longer do and that one needs to “refigure” the taxes.
If you complete a long-form, take a look at the back page, up a bit more than halfway down the page, you will see mention of it. Once you get sucked in, it will be like your first se-xual experience, only not so good, and you will NEVER forget it.
Doyle,
The perverse nature of this “soak the rich” taxation — and we are NOT rich, but we get taxed like it by DC — is that we are tossing aside income generating activities that are no longer worth the effort given the time it takes away from family and recreation. Why do things when the opportunity costs are too high? In this case, the taxes push the opportunity costs so high, we say frig it.
The end result is that the Government brings in even less than it was previously from us, and society loses from having energetic people NOT engaging in activities that profit the community. Heck of a job the tax code is doing.
Burried under rubble, injured, and about to die? There is an app for that:
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/01/haiti-survivor-iphone/
See now, imo, this place is a crack den.
But its priced right.
They bought in feb 2004 for 220k and they are trying to get back to even. Thats fair. People arent this fair in my town.
I guess you need to have gangs in your schools in order to price your home to market these days.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/17-Wickom-Ave_Hamilton_NJ_08690_1115413597?mp=1
#232 Give it a rest.
[230] shore
“The perverse nature of this “soak the rich” taxation — and we are NOT rich, but we get taxed like it by DC — is that we are tossing aside income generating activities that are no longer worth the effort given the time it takes away from family and recreation. Why do things when the opportunity costs are too high? In this case, the taxes push the opportunity costs so high, we say frig it.”
I can make the argument that this is an intentional result
First, it is the result of two conflicting policy goals: You recognize that the truly rich, the uber-rich, are actually taxed less heavily than those with earned income in excess of $250K. This is because of the tax rates given to cap gains, dividends, and muni income. Warren Buffet’s cohort has an effective tax rate of 11%. My effective tax rate is 28%. And that is just federal.
No one argues that it is inherently unfair that my tax rate is 2.5 times Warren Buffet’s. The reason is that we won’t, because we can’t, tax capital heavily. If we do, it flees. Earned income, OTOH, cannot flee. Now, if the dems had their way, they’d tax unearned income even more heavily than earned income, but they don’t because they don’t want our economic system to collapse.
Second, there is a vested interest in forcing people to forego income. That suggests a person who can work a boatload of hours and make a lot of money can be dissuaded from doing so. Assuming the need is still there, it means more hiring. I could argue that, for the same reasons, the “marriage penalty” is an unintentional, yet perversely effective, way to keep women in the household and out of the workforce. Ironic that the Dems champion this tax aspect.
ru (130)-
Up to six prospect calls for short sales, just today.
Can I call NJAR and ask them to make that item #11?
[221] shore guy
“One “earns out” by structuring income, building wealth offshore, and a host of other ways Nom could explain very well for $500/hr.”
My billing rate is considerably less than that. And if I go solo, it would be probably one third of that.
And as long as we are on the subject, who wants to start a charity with me?
Nom,
But when the USG dissuades people from engaging in activities that support other businesses (thus allowing them to hire) or might do direct hiring themselves, it shoots itself in the wallet.
“Up to six prospect calls for short sales, just today.”
Truely, you are in a “helping” profession.
233 – interesting that you have to change your name to comment.
Practically the first post all day about real estate in a real estate blog, and they are told to ‘give it a rest’.
I love it.
What kind of charity and, more importantly, does it buy pizza for employees on Fridays.
[208] stu
“Just keep in mind, there is no guarantee that the non-taxable status of a ROTH will remain this way.”
Very true, which is why I am not popping everything I can into Roth from traditional IRA.
But Roths also offer some flexibility that other IRAs don’t offer.
Now, in the future, if the gubmint is looking at taxing Roths in 2045, I liquidate them in 2044. Then I “spend” it like there is no tomorrow (by spend, I mean make sure it isn’t traceable to you, and this is where that captive charity comes in handy).
relo (166)-
Remind me: did John’s phase of relieving himself into curtains and drapes predate or postdate his onion phase?
“Cue J story w/ obligatory curtains and drapes reference?”
[237] shore
PGC would disagree with you. He seems to take the position that the cost of carry does not include taxes or health benefits. And lets not even get into the indirect cost of more worker protections that would turn us into France.
I am beginning to think that Charlie Rangel, with his offshore rentals, is ahead of his time.
[237] shore
PGC would disagree with you. He seems to take the position that the cost of carry does not include taxes or health benefits. And lets not even get into the indirect cost of more worker protections that would turn us into France.
I am beginning to think that Charlie Rangel, with his offshore rentals, is ahead of his time.
relo (166)-
Never mind. I just got to the carnage at #173.
THOSE curtains and drapes…
yikes (181)-
Remington is as reliable as tomorrow’s sunrise. Nice iron you got there.
hyde (188)-
I think we’ve had enough discussion of John’s penis for one day.
“In the real world you are more likely to end up drawing down on a family member or being heavily uncoordinated and disoriented. you never want to be in either of those situations with a loaded weapon.”
interesting comment ,, without gov intervention there is no housing market
nice,, how long can this continue ?
#232 Veto
That’s odd you don’t see 2004 prices in your town. Basking Ridge, Warren, West Orange, Livingston, and Florham Park have some fantasy 2006 listings, but also a lot of stuff at 2004 and below prices.
[203] yikes
I am doing it, but I had planned for this years ago by loading up on nondeductible contributions. So it is simply a way for me to get around the income limits on a Roth, and not for a whole lot of money.
Taxable conversions, however, must be thought out. If you are in a top bracket, it might not make sense.
But you do have the out: An IRA to Roth conversion can be reversed, and even re-done. Yes, you get a mulligan.
Here is how I understand it to work: Assume you transfer 100K from IRA to Roth and pay, oh say, 20K in taxes. Assume later this 100K tanks and is now worth 60K. You can reverse the original transfer (Roth to IRA), and then transfer the 60K back to a Roth. Now you have avoided the tax on the 40K.
spoke to a guy today,, tells me. everything is fine in Westfield. What am i missing.
prices holding, no foreclosures in this town.
freedy (250)-
Guy is full of shit.
[173] john
“in snookies case the hairy end that smells bad is not her head”
How do you know if its hairy?
Yeah safe, its a mixed bag.
The market in my town is pretty much frozen with very little sold activity, so any sold comp that comes out is usually around late 2004 early 2005, which is fine. but then last week i saw the only new sold comp to come out in weeks at 2006 prices, which has me scratching my head.
The town that i just posted in 232 is prob at 2003-04 on avg.
But we have a much higher percentage of govt workers in this area of the state because of trenton down the road and prob a much lower percentage of wall st workers, so maybe after the new governer does some layoffs, this area(mercer county) will take more of a hit.
What’s another 1.9 trillion amongst friends: My God, our addiction to debt will never cease
From Dow Jones:
Senate Democrats are to seek an increase to the federal government’s borrowing limit by $1.9 trillion lifting the total amount the U.S. government can owe to $14.294 trillion, several congressional aides said Wednesday.
The increase is forecast to support the federal government’s borrowing needs the end of 2010, one Senate Democratic aide said.
The borrowing hike comes fast on the heels of a $290 billion increase to the debt ceiling agreed to by lawmakers at the end of 2009
[174] still
“How is it not nearly enough people recognize how screwed we are??”
In the words of Tonto, “Who’s ‘we’ kemosabe?”
Fact is, there are a lot of folks doing quite well from the status quo. They’d be fcuked if we fixed it. So don’t count on their support.
Can’t drain the whole swamp at once. Politically, the best way is to pick off one unpopular group of leeches at at time. That will have popular support and fits the “incremental rule” of effective policy change.
When discussing the debt, this comparison made the #’s more tangible for me.
As expressed in seconds, 1 billion = 12 days.
1 trillion = 32 years.
Check that, 1MM seconds = 12 days.
Trust, but verify.
256 – You are off by a bit.
1 billion seconds = 31.7 years
1 trillion seconds = 31,709 years
Boken,
Thanks. Just like me to screw up the punchline. I should run for office.
168. pat
what a bunch of blah blah blah blah. Is this what corp culture is really like? I’d never survive.
nothing makes me crazier than inefficient speaking and writing. Wordiness, the next bubble.
250 freedy
point him to Zillow. About three pages worth of scrolly foreclosure goodness.
Your blog really landed right on the mark. Good work, I look forward to your next posting.
Fine blog. I got a lot of good info. I’ve been keeping an eye on this technology for awhile. It’s interesting how it keeps changing, yet some of the core elements stay the same. Have you seen much change since Google made their latest acquisition in the area?
Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic
You made some good points there. I did a search on the topic and found most people will agree with your blog.
Can I take all my 401k out before the market goes down? I know I will be penalized, but wouldn’t it be better to take it out now than to risk having a $ 0.00 return during retirement?
How white will my teeth get after one treatment?