6.67% of mortgage holders late in Q2

From Forbes:

Late mortgage payments spike in 2Q vs year ago

The rate at which U.S. homeowners fell behind on their mortgage payments remained stubbornly elevated in the second quarter.

In the three months ended June 30, the number of mortgage holders 60 days or more behind on their payments was 6.67 percent, credit reporting agency TransUnion said Tuesday. That’s a big jump from 5.81 percent in the second quarter of last year, and well above the historical norm of 1.5 percent to 2 percent.

One positive sign is that the statistic reveals a slower rate of increase from the pace seen a year ago.

What’s more, it marks a marginal improvement from the rate of 6.77 percent recorded during the first three months of the year. It’s also below the 6.89 percent record reached in the fourth quarter of 2009

Driving up the national rate are the four states hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis: Nevada, Florida, Arizona and California. In each of these, the rate is above 10 percent, with Nevada leading at 15.86 percent, compared to 13.8 percent a year ago. In Florida, the delinquency rate rose to 15 percent, from 12.3 percent last year.

The rates in Georgia, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois are also above the national average.

This entry was posted in Economics, Foreclosures, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending. Bookmark the permalink.

96 Responses to 6.67% of mortgage holders late in Q2

  1. grim says:

    From Radar Logic (Hat tip CR):


    Moody’s housing economist Celia Chen has released a forecast of housing that is pretty dire. If the U.S. enters a doubledip recession, writes Chen, home prices could fall another 20% before stabilizing in early 2012. That compares to a baseline forecast that calls for another 5% decline in home prices and a bottom early next year. Chen puts the odds of a near‐term double‐dip at one in four. As observers of the actual housing market, while we cannot say these numbers are right, we certainly support Chen’s concern. However, we think the order of events will be reversed: it is our belief that housing prices will decrease in the autumn, perhaps precipitously, and that may cause a second dip in the U.S. economy.

  2. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Unexpectedly Drops to Lowest Since March 2009

    Builders in the U.S. unexpectedly turned pessimistic in August, a sign the expiration of a government tax credit will keep depressing home construction.

    The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index dropped to 13 this month, the lowest level since March 2009, from 14 in July, data from the Washington- based group showed today. Economists forecast a reading of 15, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings lower than 50 mean more respondents said conditions were poor.

    “The housing market still has many fundamental challenges that are likely to keep it depressed,” said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “The problem continues to be oversupply. There are just far too many homes.”

  3. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Moody’s Downgrades Continue on Another $22bn of RMBS

    Moody’s Investors Service continues to adjust its ratings on residential mortgage-backed securities to reflect updated loss expectations on pools issued between 2005 and 2007 — leading to ratings action on nearly $22bn of RMBS.

    The New York-based ratings service said the changes reflect the “continued performance deterioration in subprime pools in conjunction with home price and unemployment conditions that remain under duress.”

    Most of the collateral backing the deals consists of first-lien, fixed or adjustable-rate subprime residential mortgages.

  4. grim says:

    Nice one Moe:

    Moody’s downgraded 54 tranches of Alt-A RMBS worth $4bn issued by Countrywide across 11 transactions in 2006 and 2007. The ratings of another $4bn of Alt-A RMBS issued by Countrywide also were changed with 126 tranches getting downgraded, 39 receiving a confirmation, and four being upgraded.

  5. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Banks Ease Lending Standards for First Time in 4 Years

    The Federal Reserve says banks have eased their lending standards for small businesses for the first time in nearly four years.

    In its new survey of bank lending practices, the Fed found that the easing in loan standards was occurring primarily at the country’s largest domestic banks, while many smaller banks continued to struggle.

    In a ray of hope for the beleaguered real estate sector, the Fed found that large banks were more eager to provide credit for home loans. No major changes were observed with regards to loans for commercial real estate.

  6. Confused in NJ says:

    Sounds ominous, although if you don’t have to move, it’s a moot point. I can see my place purchased 8/06 has been in freefall, losing 18% so far, as I track recent sales.

  7. grim says:

    From the APP:

    Berkeley aiming to address residents’ furor over jump in property tax

    A revaluation and a sharp increase in municipal, school and county taxes have taxpayers in this sprawling 41.9-square-mile community up in arms.

    “We had about 300 people at our last council meeting, and I was just as upset as these homeowners,” said Township Council President Carmen Amato Jr., who added that his property taxes went up about 30 percent and the value of his home and land more than doubled following the revaluation.

    Amato said he is seeking legislation that would allow municipalities to phase in the revaluation results over a five-year period to those residents who have been hit very hard.

    “In effect, some homeowners’ taxes doubled and tripled. The money to provide the difference to municipalities would be provided out of the fund set up by the state. In addition, the revaluation where homeowners’ taxes stayed the same or went down . . . would take effect immediately,” Amato said.

  8. grim says:

    From the NYT Dealbook Blog:

    Fed Adopts Rules Meant to Protect Home Buyer

    The Federal Reserve on Monday moved to end a controversial lending practice that had helped propel the housing boom to unsustainable heights and then accelerated its collapse, David Streitfeld reports in The New York Times.

    The Fed announced that it was adopting new rules banning yield spread premiums, which allowed mortgage brokers and lenders to gain additional profit from loans by charging borrowers higher-than-market interest rates.

  9. SG says:

    Why Wall Street doesn’t buy the American Dream

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — What happens when you have 20 years of price appreciation in the housing market in just five years?

    Your house goes from personal piggy bank to the pigs at the bank.

    That’s the unsavory reality lawmakers and a panel of experts will grapple with Tuesday in a Washington summit to discuss the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage lending giants.

  10. Nomad says:

    Double Dip?

    Some think we have not even finished Dip #1.


  11. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    I get a chuckle out of these economists housing predictions. There has been, and will be, NO RECOVERY!!!! Get over it. Until you make the banks eat their bad loans and plow the excess inventory into the ground housing is going no place.

  12. Nomad says:

    So SR HEHEHE & Others – why do they not want to just rip the scab off the housing wound and get it over with?

    Would this literally implode the US / world economy or create some type of massive civil problem?

  13. yo'me says:

    It will be more profitable for the mortgage holders to bulldoze the excess in housing FK and pay less in maintenance,write off the losses, get deduction in taxes and life goes on.

  14. yo'me says:

    #13 at least there still value on the land of that match stick.

  15. House Whine says:

    10- I skimmed the linked article. Can someone please tell me why job creation was never made the front and center issue? Am I missing something? From day one of Obama’s admin. shouldn’t this have been given the spotlight? Or, are our gov’t leaders so out of touch that they don’t know any unemployed people? Worse, do they not care?
    I don’t mean to just blame Obama- I am talking about our representatives as a whole.

  16. Mike says:

    all this reminds of Lucent stock when it dropped from 75 to 50 it was good buy! when it dropped from 50 to 25 it was a terrific buy! from 25 to 10 an excellent buy! under 10 you better grab some they’re making a comeback! Only difference here the government was not giving you $8,000.00 to buy some.

  17. Cindy says:

    Grim – @ 2 – “unexpectedly”

  18. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Cindy 17 yes,the preface for all bad news.

  19. Cindy says:


    Maybe this was posted yesterday..

    Homeowner Demand All But a ‘Standstill’ : Altos Research

    “The market, right now, is a veritable case study of the law of supply and demand,” according to the report. “Right now there’s a whole lot of supply, but very, very little demand. The buyers that drove a flurry of activity during the spring have left a deafening silence in their wake.”

  20. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    PPI: Actual 0.2%, consensus 0.2%, prior -0.5%
    Core PPI: Actual 0.3%, consensus 0.1%, prior 0.1%
    Housing Starts: Actual 546K, consensus 555K, prior 537K (revised from 549K)
    Building Permits: Actual 565K, consensus 573K, prior 586K

  21. homeboken says:

    Conused 6 – unrealized losses still have an effect on the psyche. I have some company stock that vested at 19/share and is now worth about 20 cents. True I don’t have to sell it, but that fact doesn’t give me much hope that I will ever cash it out anywhere near what is was once worth.

  22. jamil says:

    Different rules for the Ruling Class.

    “Union member fired for attempting to unionize union workforce”

    Not the first time.
    These parasitic mob clubs should be banned, instead of letting them to run the country.


  23. Cindy says:


    John Mauldin – Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets

    What state budget – we don’t have one of those….

  24. Mr Hyde says:


    Would this literally implode the US / world economy or create some type of massive civil problem?

    Yes, yes, and maybe.

    The end result of forcing everyone to eat their bad debts would be similar to the depression of 1921

    It would be a bigger event this time as it would probably be global due to the modern global banking infrastructure. Within 2 – 3 years all bad debt would be cleared out of the system and we would probably see a substantial period of growth as trust returned to the system and malinvestment was cleared. No politician in office today has the cojones to do this. We could have easily used the 2 – 3 trillion spent in propping up housing and the banks to fund widespread social support programs from food stamps to housing assistance to help people through the corrective period without creating artificial supports.

    Of course all of this would be completely against modern sociopolitical theory of government having a major hand in picking and choosing the social and economic winners. Such action would completely blowout the current corporatist leaches and they have paid way to much money to buy politicians to let that happen. Such action would also require that companies and individuals be allowed to fail as economics dictates.

    Good luck with that.

  25. Mr Hyde says:

    House whine

    Jobs doing what???? We are seeing the vaunted service economy evaporate like the mirage it always was while asian slave labor drives any remaining manufacturing out of the nation.

    If we are going to compete with slave labor then the only way we are going to create any significant number of jobs is to start using Americans as slave labor on a similar scale. If you want to create jobs without competing against slave labor then you have to use that DIRTY word “protectionism” and institute equalization tariffs on nations/products that utilize slave labor.

    Its all about maximizing the profit extraction from economic activity. Its a race to the bottom for everyone but those who pull the levers. The alternative is to maximize positive social impact and in the process greatly reducing gross profits. The global banking system as it currently exists would implode. It will anyway, but it will take everyone else down with it in the process.

  26. Mr Hyde says:

    SAS3 from yesterday

    sas3 says:
    August 16, 2010 at 6:35 pm

    The logic of no college education and alternative investments is … hmm… like the economics of savings. It is probably good for one or two people to try that. If everyone does that, it will be a disaster.

    i.e if we dont have enough debt slaves the economy collapses. Hurray for slave economics! There are other economic systems that dont require debt slaves in order to function, but then again they arent nearly as profitable.

  27. Yikes says:

    reposting from yesterday…

    anyone feel like sharing their thoughts on the hinderburg omen?


  28. chicagofinance says:


    BUSINESSAUGUST 17, 2010, 9:09 A.M. ET
    Potash Rejects $38.56 Billion Takeover Bid by BHP Billiton

  29. nj escapee says:


    Donald Trump recommended taxes on all imports from Chinese on Cavuto yesterday. I guess it is an ego thing. He said that China won’t let him use the “Trump” name as his brand name.

  30. Yikes says:

    House Whine says:
    August 17, 2010 at 8:21 am

    Can someone please tell me why job creation was never made the front and center issue? Am I missing something? From day one of Obama’s admin. shouldn’t this have been given the spotlight? Or, are our gov’t leaders so out of touch that they don’t know any unemployed people? Worse, do they not care?

    i’ll echo hyde: jobs doing what?

    you let us know where these jobs should have been created. i’m all ears.

    oh, and the people have spoken – white collar guys clearing 75k-150k have told the nyt, wsj, etc they won’t take ‘any’ job. and by ‘any’ i mean blue collar jobs digging ditches. (i’m not saying that is right or wrong, just how things are)

  31. Mr Hyde says:


    oh, and the people have spoken – white collar guys clearing 75k-150k have told the nyt, wsj, etc they won’t take ‘any’ job. and by ‘any’ i mean blue collar jobs digging ditches. (i’m not saying that is right or wrong, just how things are)

    Well going from one of the highest incomes in the world to 3rd world income is one hell of a drop to accept when you consider that you will be competing with a substantial portion of illegal labor for those ditch digging jobs. Besides why hire you when you can hire an illegal that can be treated like slave labor due to their illegal status.

    Its a nasty catch-22

  32. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Good news for Frank, looks like he will be folding T-shirts for a little while longer to pay the mortgage.
    A&F returns to 2Q profit; to close 60 stores

  33. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Ch1 (28),


  34. NJGator says:

    Grim 7 – That’s ridiculous. A town let’s their assessments get out of whack by not revaluing for 15-20 years and they expect the state to make up the difference? I am really starting towonder why we even have municipal tax assessors. Townwide reassessments or revaluations are always done by outside companies. Added assessments are completely formulaic. What value do these folks provide? Our assessor isn’t even maintianing up to date property record cards.

    Having been through a revaluation and seen our taxes spike as a result, I understand the problem. But the better way to solve it would be to make each town assess at 100% market value each and every year. This would eliminate inequities the occur due to who files an appeal, would eliminate the losses of the municipalities that assessed at market peak and are losing appeals right and left, and would also eliminate the inequities that occur based on different changes in market value neighborhood by neighborhood. Would also eliminate the ridiculous 15% buffer that each town gets over the common level for appeals in non-reassessment years. How would you like to pay an extra 10-15%/ year over already ridiculous Essex County taxes. This could run at the County level similar to what they do in Florida.

    The council also will seek legislation to phase in the revaluation, as well as changes in the state law allowing the township to set the percentage for delinquent taxpayers.

    The council has taken action to delay the third quarter tax due date from Aug. 1 to Aug. 25.

    Amato said he is seeking legislation that would allow municipalities to phase in the revaluation results over a five-year period to those residents who have been hit very hard.

    “In effect, some homeowners’ taxes doubled and tripled. The money to provide the difference to municipalities would be provided out of the fund set up by the state. In addition, the revaluation where homeowners’ taxes stayed the same or went down . . . would take effect immediately,” Amato said.

    “Under the current economic climate of the state’s finances, the funding of this type of legislation would be difficult. However, it is certainly warranted under these circumstances to lessen the immediate burden and allow the homeowners affected to better prepare,” he said.

  35. Juice Box says:

    On Bloomberg this morning some Housing analyst from Florida was predicting housing starts to reach 1 million again in the next two years pending a bounce back of jobs. An optimist for sure he was but even the optimistic cannot deny that the lending that caused to housing boom has not returned.

    Just take a look see at this chart from the Fed, and then factor in that the artificial 1.3 trillion in support the Fed monetized to fill the gap and prevent a total collapse was pulled at the end of March.

    No buying from the Fed, little buying of ABS in the private sector, so who has appetite for debt these days? Answer NOBODY but Uncle Sam.



  36. Mr Hyde says:


    the link doesnt work

  37. Juice Box says:

    #33 Gator re: “A town let’s their assessments get out of whack by not revaluing for 15-20 years and they expect the state to make up the difference?”

    Hoboken is the poster child. 22 years since last Reval.

    Example of how out of whack it is.

    2 BR condo new construction taxes = 13,6k

    2BR condo older housing taxes = 7k

  38. Juice Box says:

    re: #35 – Hyde try the PDF link


    or Type in ABCOMPN into the search.

  39. Final Doom says:

    gator (33)-

    The only thing that will work is when NJ residents become so fed up that we embark on an all-out tax revolt and begin to starve the gubmint parasites.

  40. joyce says:

    total finance neophyte here…
    the treasury bond funds offered by Vanguard (and other companies), what exactly are they? mutual funds, ETf’s, something else?

  41. chicagofinance says:

    Serious Wantans: FCUKBALLS…..One of my biggest clients just told me that his compliance is locking him into his position because his desk is working on the defense against BHP…….I may sell SQM just to take “something” off….

    32.Mr Wantanapolous says:
    August 17, 2010 at 9:44 am
    Ch1 (28),

  42. Mr Hyde says:



  43. chicagofinance says:

    Mutual funds have 5 character tickers, generally end in “X” and will price once a day after the close of the stock markets. ETF’s will have constantly updating prices as the market is open and have 3 character tickers.

    If there are Treasury bond mutual funds, they generally are made entirely of the same types of securities (i.e. T-bonds) and the choices will vary based on maturity focus (short/intermediate/long), although by defintion the term T-bond usually means 10-years and out. Shorter maturities are called notes and bills. It can be confusing if you have something which as originally issued as a T-bond with a 2015 maturity. Today it is a 5, but people may still refer to it as a bond, not a note…..I’ll stop here….

    39.joyce says:
    August 17, 2010 at 11:05 am
    total finance neophyte here…
    the treasury bond funds offered by Vanguard (and other companies), what exactly are they? mutual funds, ETf’s, something else?

  44. joyce says:

    42- thanks
    Yeah, so these were mutual funds I was looking at.
    If these funds consist 100% of treasuries of varying maturities, then it’s as if they are as safe as the bonds themselves?
    VUSTX, returning 7.5% and 6.5% (last 10 and 5 years respectively). What is the downside to putting my loose cash in there rather than a checking account? Am I missing something?

  45. Kidstar says:

    Hi, I am interested in putting an offer on a short-sale property in NJ. I know the amount of the original mortgage (which was taken out in 2005). Is there anyway to know what is owed as of today? Thanks in advance for your help!

  46. NJGator says:

    Juice 36 – But what will those 2 different condos sell for? Taxes likely out of whack, but I don’t think they would be entirely equal.

  47. Final Doom says:

    kid (44)-

    Only way to know the exact number is to run title. You can get a ballpark on the payoff by joining RealtyTrac. You might also ask the listing agent to get a payoff number from the lender’s attorney (a good listing agent should be authorized to get info from his client’s lender).

    Don’t think you know the whole story just by getting the payoff amount, though. Running title will turn up any other liens or encumbrances against the property.

  48. Final Doom says:

    Watch those POT suckers ask for $240/share.

    Chi, I’ll take all the SQM you offload. :)

  49. Final Doom says:

    “In light of the entrenched way of perceiving things, especially in the U.S., it is difficult enough to convince some people that the economy is in fact not providing the security they desire, but is actually destroying their future completely. To explain to them that this is deliberate, that the economy is designed to self-destruct, that is another prospect altogether. Many people hit a proverbial wall on this issue because they simply cannot fathom that certain groups of men (globalists and central bankers) view money and economy in completely different terms than they do. The average American lives within a tiny box when it comes to the mechanics and motivations of finance. They think that their monetary desires and drives are exactly the same as a globalist’s. But, what they don’t realize is that the box they think in was BUILT by globalists. This is why the actions of big banks and the decisions of our mostly corporate establishment run government seem so insane in the face of common sense. We try to rationalize their behavior as “idiocy”, but the reality is that their goals are highly deliberate and so far outside what we have been taught to expect that some of us lack a point of reference. If you cannot see the endgame, you will not understand the steps taken to reach it until it is too late.”

    -Giordano Bruno


  50. chicagofinance says:

    I front-ran that Lithium ETF bullshite for SQM and now I got the bonus plan with this BHP thing……indexing with ETFs is for asswipes…….

    maybe I should wait for some more hairy eyeballs with money burning a hole in their pocket…


    47.Final Doom says:
    August 17, 2010 at 12:14 pm
    Watch those POT suckers ask for $240/share.
    Chi, I’ll take all the SQM you offload. :)

  51. chicagofinance says:

    wontons & clot: I touched POT at $115 and piled into it at $98, but I had no dry powder to allocate at $85….can’t complain I guess…..

  52. Kidstar says:

    Final Doom (46) –

    Thanks for the response. The property is in Bergen County. If I don’t want to fork out the full fees to a title tompany to do the search, any suggestion(s) as to what document(s) I would need to order from the county clerk which would reveal the same information as a search done by a title company? I will also see if my agent can get any payoff amount information from the seller’s agent.

  53. NJGator says:

    Stu must think y’all need a good laugh. He suggested I post this message from today’s Watercooler. $5 says these folks moved here from Park Slope:

    “I have been looking for a pediatrician who’s supportive of extended nursing, attachment parenting, alternative vaccine schedules and co-sleeping since I moved here. (The one we currently have is decidedly not)”

  54. skep-tic says:

    “T. Geith to World: USA to Permanently Backstop House Prices”

  55. sas says:

    LeBron James … ist das Opium des Volkes.


  56. Mr Hyde says:


    Things start getting weird when the kid is old enough to ask for the boobie at feeding time

  57. NJGator says:

    Hyde – I did a full year. That was plenty. You know you really have to be out there if you can’t even find medical resources in Montklair that are supportive of your parental choices :)

  58. Mr Hyde says:

    little hyde nursed for about 9 months and then decided he wanted solid food…

    i am all for nursing, but seeing a toddler nurse is very weird.

  59. Final Doom says:

    gator (57)-

    That’s pretty damn creepy.

  60. NJGator says:

    Doom? Me or the new Park Sloper? :) I pretty much stuck it out because the pediatrician thought Lil Gator may have had a dairy allergy that was contributing to his ear infections. Once he had the okay to start drinking regular soy milk, Stu cut him off cold turkey because he was turning into a biter.

  61. Mr Hyde says:

    Now things are stating to get interesting!!!! how long before we see this or similiar in NJ?


    Illinois public employees who think the state constitution guarantees that they’ll get all their pension benefits may have another think coming.

    The opinion acknowledges that the constitution creates a contractual agreement between the workers and the state’s employee pension funds. But it concludes that neither the constitution nor the law say the state is a guarantor of that (pension)obligation.


    So we have one of the first rulings that a state is not required to backstop a bankrupt pension fund!!!!!! If this or similar happens in NJ its going to be time to bust out the popcorn and get ready for some fireworks. By recent estimates the NJ pension fund could run dry in about 5 years.

  62. Final Doom says:

    The Park Sloper. That’s some weird-ass stuff.

  63. Mr Hyde says:

    correction. It was not a ruling, but a legal opinion. I imagine it wont be long before the opinion gets tested in court.

    a legal opinion from the Chicago law firm Sidley Austin, provided to me by R. Eden Martin, president of the Civic Committee of the Commercial Club of Chicago

  64. Final Doom says:

    Eraserhead, Bill Gross, Mark Zandi joint statement:

    “Together, we can destroy mortgage markets for at least another 100 years.”

  65. Final Doom says:

    Hyde (61)-

    The best outcome to the current dilemma is that when it’s time to storm the ramparts, all the gubmint pension parasites are in the first wave of infantry.

    It would be nice to sit back with a fruity drink and watch these leeches do all the heavy lifting.

    Ironic it would be if those entrusted with protecting and educating us are the first to indulge in a little ultra-violence.

  66. relo says:

    54: Skep,

    As me Mum would say, this is arse backwards.

    He said continued government support was important “to make sure that Americans can borrow at reasonable interest rates to buy a house even in a downturn.” The absence of such support, Mr. Geithner said, would make future recessions more severe because private lenders would not provide enough money for loans.

  67. yo'me says:

    Pimco’s Gross Urges `Full Nationalization’ of Housing Finance Bill Gross , who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. should consider “full nationalization” of the mortgage- finance system as the Obama administration plots the revival of a market that was at the center of the 2008 credit crisis


  68. Nomad says:

    All the people leaving the country – are any going to New Zealand? Everyone I have ever met from there seemed very happy.

  69. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    For your viewing pleasure:

    The one must watch interview of the week (if not of the year) features Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass. Bass, who correctly called the subprime implosion (and profited handsomely from it) as a iconoclast contrarian to conventional wisdom, tells David Faber that “given my outlook on the world, I don’t know how I can be long stocks.” Frequent readers of Zero Hedge will notice many comparable themes touched upon in Bass’ interview with issues covered on Zero Hedge: the inevitable restructuring of untenable sovereign debt, the nearly $5 trillion in new global debt that needs to be issued just to plug near-term deficits, the joke that was the European stress test and the ongoing insolvency of the European banking system which is times bigger than its US equivalent, the imminent downward revision of Q2 GDP to sub 1%, the Fed’s conflicted position as a political authority whose sole purpose now is not to keep inflation and unemployment low, but merely to keep interest rates as low as possible, as even the slightest shift to higher short-end rates will be seen as a black swan, indicative the Fed is losing control over the economy, and ultimately the futility of Keynesian theory band-aiding of a world caught in a toxic debt death spiral. In short, Bass sees no way the world can get out of its current state absent a huge reset. We agree completely, and needless to say, we are confident Bass will be proven 100% correct, to the chagrin of all the permabullish lemmings who day after day refuse to accept the unpleasant reality. The only caveat: when Bass is eventually proven right, all bets on profiting from this realistic worldview will be off, as the existing financial system will no longer exist.


  70. Juice Box says:

    re #68 – Gross holds about $40 billion in Mortgage Bonds. I don’t think he is going to
    push for privatization when there is NO Demand for the MBS.

  71. yo'me says:

    I think he is right!Not to many banks will be willing to finance unstable home mortgages.Privatization of new mortgages will require higher downpayment with shorter length of mortgages.20 to 30yr mortgages are only fissible due to the GSE’s backing.

  72. Juice Box says:

    re #69 – Just met up with a cousin who left NY for New Zealand 20 years ago. Very Happy there living on the North Island. He was a part of their tech boom and they have advanced the place from sheep farming to a modern economy over the last twenty years. Perhaps too late to move there and jump in on their boom but for the most part with a small population he expressed is a very nice place to live with Christmas on the beach and lots of acreage to build your own versions of a family compound. They also inherited the English/Irish lifystle of family, pubs, music, nightlife and sporting lifestyles soccer, rugby etc for recreation etc. He definitely does not miss this place NYC.

  73. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [39] joyce

    They are mutual funds. Depending on how much you have to invest, and your time horizons, you may do better yourself at Treasury Direct.

  74. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [69] nomad

    Good luck getting into NZ legally. And they are not that much better taxwise so the wealthy are not getting kiwi citizenship. That said, it is very stable and they are buying land there.

  75. yo'me says:

    Skilled Migrant Quick Check
    1. Are you under 56 years of age? Yes No
    2. Are you, your partner, and your children all healthy? (See page 3.) Yes No
    3. Are you, your partner, and/or your children free of major criminal
    convictions and not a security risk? Yes No
    4. Can you competently speak, write and understand English? Yes No
    5. Have you been offered a job in New Zealand? Yes No
    6. Do you have a tertiary or trade qualification? Yes No
    7. Do you have at least two years work experience? Yes No
    If you have answered Yes to the first four questions and Yes to at least one of the last three
    questions, it may be worthwhile taking the next step and filling in an Expression of Interest.

  76. NJGator says:

    Legal question for the experts out there. Relative seems to owe BOA some money. I have no connection to the account – not responsible for payment, nor an authorized user. BOA seems to have discovered they are related to me – I have a separate acct – and has called me twice at my office asking me to pass along messages. Legal or not? Seems to me that this would be a violation of acct privacy. I would like to tell them to f%$! off and threaten them with legal action if they continue to call me.

  77. New in NJ says:

    Too old. Gotta keep looking.

  78. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [70] h train

    “The only caveat: when Bass is eventually proven right, all bets on profiting from this realistic worldview will be off, as the existing financial system will no longer exist. ”

    Unless you have a dealer’s license for guns and ammo, and inventory to move.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [78] gator

    ” I would like to tell them to f%$! off and threaten them with legal action if they continue to call me.”

    Feel free. It is perfectly legal to do so.

    And if you want to get all legal on them, I used to work for the general counsel for the consumer division, so I can make it go away toute suite.

  80. NJGator says:

    Nom 81 – We’ll have to discuss this on Saturday.

    Just for jollies, am talking about this on the phone with Stu right now. He just said “How is he going to make the problem go away? With a bullet? Oh wait, that would be Doom.”

  81. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “I have a separate acct – and has called me twice at my office asking me to pass along messages.”

    Gator [78],

    The same happened to me. My idiot bil was in deep doo-doo, the same expert who told me I was crazy for selling my house. Well, he was not making payments on his car lease. They called me, a divorced sil and his sil’s mother. I told Mercedes to F off and go reposses the car. The calls then stopped.

  82. Mr Wantanapolous says:


  83. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [82] gator,

    I like Bob’s suggestion. Tell them to go repossess something and f off. Its easy, expedient, and it makes you feel warm and fuzzy all over.

  84. Juice Box says:

    Gator – from the FTC website.

    Contacting a third party about your debt.
    If you have an attorney, the debt collector must contact the attorney, rather than you. If you do not have an attorney, a collector may contact other people but only to find out where you live, what your phone number is and where you work. Collectors usually are prohibited from contacting such third parties more than once. In most cases, the collector may not tell anyone other than you and your attorney that you owe money.

  85. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [82] gator

    I also like Stu’s suggestion. Here’s the person we should send Doom to go see:


  86. Nicholas says:

    After a while the debt goes to default and gets sold at cents on the dollar to a collection agency. These guys usually don’t give a crap about laws and will usually shake any tree that gets them money.

    I had a sil that was in deep trouble and came to me crying about how this debt collector kept threatening her with “or else”. I asked “or else what” and she said “he just keeps saying “or else” and it is really starting to freak me out”. Calling her at work, calling relatives, and wouldn’t accept any terms of a payment plan or partial repayment. “All the money right now”, “Unless you writing a check for the full amount and mailing it we don’t have anything else to talk about”.

    I stepped in and verbally threw him around a few times just letting him know what he can and cant do, he hung up on me so I called him back. He hung up on me again so I called back a third time. I got his boss that time and then his boss hung up on me. I called the bank directly and let them know that I was having issues paying the debt collectors and that the debt collector had probably broken about 3-4 laws in the process of collecting the debt. I warned that if they didn’t do something that I would counter-sue them and the collection agency.

    All it took was an intelligent, authoritative male voice on the line and people smartened up really quick. I’m sure that the collection agent didn’t like hearing, “You are a small fish in a sea full of debt collectors, you are going to have to get in line behind the rest of them. I am offering a repayment schedule of 50.00$ per month and that is the best I can do right now.”

    Anyway, tell your spineless bil to grow a pair and start handling his buisness. Also treat the collection agent like he treats everyone else, tell him to gtfo and stop calling you because the next call will be you calling him, then his boss, etc… These guys make money on volume…they need to shake xxx trees per hour. If you can hold them on the phone for 30-60 mins then you pretty much crapped on their day. Call them back the next day and absorb more of their time. In fact, just keep calling them and see how they like it. Kinda hard to shake trees when some monkey keeps calling. I almost laughed out loud when my sil’s debt collector frustratingly said, “why are you calling me!” I replied, “because I said I would call you and I’m doing what I said I would do. Are you not used to people doing what they say they would do?”

  87. yo'me says:

    Blago’s verdict is on Judge hand

  88. yo'me says:

    The recalled eggs are packaged under the following brand names: Lucerne, Albertson, Mountain Dairy, Ralph’s, Boomsma’s, Sunshine, Hillandale, Trafficanda, Farm Fresh, Shoreland, Lund, Dutch Farms and Kemps. The eggs are packed in cartons of various sizes, including 6-egg cartons, dozen-egg cartons and 18-egg cartons.


  89. Ben says:

    “BUSINESSAUGUST 17, 2010, 9:09 A.M. ET
    Potash Rejects $38.56 Billion Takeover Bid by BHP Billiton”

    I sold mine today. Love the business, but seriously, 30% rise? Gimme a break.

  90. Al "Fat Thumbery" Gore says:

    New Zealand is definitely a favored location for future expats. Im going to make a pit stop in Canada when this collapses. Once the dust settles I will look seriously at where to reside permanently.

  91. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Big Al new thread.

  92. Final Doom says:

    plume (87)-

    Just mail her a 30.06 round.

  93. lost says:

    Being a blogger is like being in charge of your own personal insane asylum.

    Sent from my iPhone 4G

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