With July Existing Home Sales widely expected to disappoint at 10am this morning, I thought I’d share with you all the equally gloomy Northern NJ data.
The local July declines are significantly worse (at least 2-3x) than the consensus estimate of economists taken by Bloomberg for the National number. While I haven’t run the correlations on the local markets to the greater Northeast region in a while, they’ve always been close enough that I’d consider a wager that the Northeast region will have the poorest showing this month.
Bergen (NJMLS)
July 2009 – 724
July 2010 – 555 (Down 23.3%)
Essex (GSMLS)
July 2009 – 405
July 2010 – 287 (Down 29.1%)
Hunterdon (GSMLS)
July 2009 – 130
July 2010 – 82 (Down 36.9%)
Middlesex (GSMLS)
July 2009 – 140
July 2010 – 80 (Down 42.8%)
Morris (GSMLS)
July 2009 – 490
July 2010 – 296 (Down 39.6%)
Passaic (GSMLS)
July 2009 – 266
July 2010 – 138 (Down 48.1%)
Somerset (GSMLS)
July 2009 – 381
July 2010 – 230 (Down 39.6%)
Sussex (GSMLS)
July 2009 – 148
July 2010 – 86 (Down 41.9%)
Union (GSMLS)
July 2009 – 411
July 2010 – 256 (Down 37.7%)
Warren (GSMLS)
July 2009 – 98
July 2010 – 51 (Down 47.9%)
Grim I gather that is just for Essex. Not looking good.
Ah There they are , any info on lowly Sussex? Man what a blood bath.
Timberrrrrr!
Thanks, 86 in the whole county! Su*ks to be a Realtor up here. Just saw a real nice one hot sheet, CHC on 5.5 ac 329k, 10k taxes. This was a stand out all you want around that price point.
Gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today:
“The insolvent state of California which, just like the country of the USA, is operating without a budget (and who needs a budget when the Fed-PD complex will buy the bulk of anything and everything needed to fund ongoing daily operations), has once again ended up on the verge of bankruptcy. As a result, it has just passed a measure which for the second time in as many years (going all the way back to the Great Depression), will allow it to use IOUs in lieu of payment on everything from supplies to contracted services and health-care costs, so it can actually preserve cash to make payments to its generous debtors. On the road to banker serfdom, California has once again reached its goal.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/iou-part-two-california-issue-ious-second-year-row
Essex more like Boom! I think tick tick tick may be over with. Q Gary.
Whoa, Mike, you guys beat Hunterdon by four.
Good thing I know how to gamble on soccer. Don’t make money in RE anymore.
WTF?
CORVALLIS, Ore. (ESPN) — An Oregon State University offensive lineman has been dismissed from the team after police say they found him naked and intoxicated in a stranger’s home and had to use stun guns to take him into custody.
Corvallis police say they received the call about a naked intruder early Sunday.
Responding officers ordered 19-year-old Tyler Patrick Thomas of Kalispell, Mont., to get on the ground, Lt. Tim Brewer said.
Thomas refused and instead dropped into a three-point stance like a football player and lunged at the officers, Brewer said. At that point, he said, two officers fired their stun guns.
Brewer said Thomas “absolutely was intoxicated” at the time.
Clot yea but they were shacks, trust me.
Can any of the real estate Mavens explain this to me? If BOA is making so much money, why are they selling this Balboa insurance company they own. If I read it right, they dump the losses from BOA mortgages onto BalBoa – is BOA just using BalBoa as a garbage can for bad mortgages and now that the BalBoa garbage can in full are they taking it to the curb (selling it?). If so, who wants an insurance company loaded up with liabilities that will kill its financial performance.
Faster Short Sale Approvals after B of A Insurance Scam
July 24, 2010 by Josh Groesbeck
Filed under HomesWithJosh.com Featured
Leave a comment
Ever feel like your mortgage servicer or company is just toying with you and your HAMP program- It should be black or white, completely transparent and well let’s admit it– Can I get a loan mod and does it even make any sense if my home is totally upside down (bought at 300k now worth 175k)- Here in Idaho job unemployment rate is still above 9% and not looking to drop drastically anytime soon. If your loan company is jerking you around please don’t hesitate to call or email Josh with your questions. Idaho’s Best Short Sale Specialist! Read below what the big boys in banking are doing it might make you shake your head–
Bank of America gets caught with their hand in the jar and blames Countrywide.
But doesn’t Bank of America own Countrywide? Yes!
When Bank of America took over Countrywide in 2008 during the worst housing crash since the Great Depression, according to Bloomberg, BofA absorbed Balboa Insurance. Essentially, Balboa Insurance…now owned and operated by BofA, is insuring their own bad debt.
What does this mean? Bank of America’s “Countrywide Loans” that have been defaulted against by homeowners are insured, meaning Bank of America is feeling no pain and actually is gaining from this type of bad debt. Meaning that BofA is in no hurry to sell bad debt. That’s why there is “Shadow Inventory” and Short Sales are taking so long to approve for sale. There’s no hurry when your making money.
Why Bank of America is gaining on a defaulted loan? It seems that the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) uncovered ”scamming” on behalf of “Countrywide” last month. Remember, Bank of America bought/took over, what ever you want to call it, Countrywide at the Federal Governments request.
What was the scamming?
Countrywide had established Balboa Insurance to cover their home loans gone bad. In an effort to help defray these losses on bad loans, Balboa Insurance and Countrywide would over charge the now defaulted homeowner for any related services to the default…like mowing the lawns, maintenance of the home, painting, etc…yes, Countrywide in it’s need to make money, charged up to 2 times the amount back to the homeowner for these services. This is in clear violation to FTC guidelines as it pertains to loan servicing.
So what?
Well, Millions and millions of dollars have been scammed from the clients that they hold a fiduciary responsibility. Kinda like Bernie Madoff screwing his own clients out of their money. Well, it’s now 2 years later, and Bank of America “Countrywide” division has been caught red handed. However, no one is being held responsible. Why?
BofA was helping out the Feds by taking over the Countrywide catastrophe and with that comes immunity. Above the law stuff…”you do us a favor, no one will suffer.”
Know that BofA has been caught, the new CEO, Brian Moynihan stated earlier this month that they have a “desire” to sell Balboa Insurance. Desire? What does that mean?
C’mon…let’s be real. BofA makes tons of money on bad loans. That’s why it takes so freakin’ long to get a BofA short sale approved! That’s why there is “shadow Inventory”!
So what happens next?
As soon as CEO Moynihans “desire” is fulfilled and Bolboa is sold…it should open the flood gates to short sales and release of “shadow inventory”.
It’s good news…however, no one person is held responsible. No one goes to jail.
Do the Feds a “solid” and your protected!
Market still has a way to go, until some fantasy land sellers with 30 year old bi-level realize you can get a newer CHC for same price & get real it is not over. Capitulation has not occurred, the only thing priced in reality are the REOs.
Nomad , hope they get it sold quickly. Ah a flood of shorts & REO just what we need.
#10 – Fiduciary responsibility? Huh?
From Bloomberg:
Purchases of Existing Homes in U.S. Probably Slumped in July
Sales of U.S. previously owned homes probably plunged in July to the lowest level since March 2009, evidence the market is restrained by foreclosures and limited job growth, economists said before a report today.
Purchases dropped 13.4 percent from June to a 4.65 million annual rate, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. A decline would be the third in a row.
A tax credit of up to $8,000 boosted sales earlier in the year, pulling forward demand and indicating additional advances will prove difficult. Mortgage rates at record lows have provided scant relief to the industry as unemployment hovers close to 10 percent, foreclosures hold near record-highs and the economy cools.
“There’s obviously a very severe payback going on,” from the expiration of the government tax credit, said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. “Prices need to come down further to deal with the looming oversupply.”
…
Grim 14 I doubt they will try the tax credit again, but as it is the precisely wrong thing to do you never know.
When it’s time for me to sell, i will just barter my place for a cold six pack and some beef jerkey.
Markets red across the board, Europe ,Asia, US futures dare I say grim. Nas getting taken out to the wood shed.
Essex, a realistic seller now we need more of that.
I better turn on CNBC so I can watch them sh*t their pants.
Schadenfreude is the new ‘black’.
Any numbers for Hudson County?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/08/23/mortgage-refi-madness-packs-less-kick-than-in-the-past/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Feconomics%2Ffeed+%28WSJ.com%3A+Real+Time+Economics+Blog%29
Mortgage Refi Madness Packs Less Kick Than in the Past
“What the new frugality means is that the latest round of refis may not offer the same boost to consumer spending as refi activity did in the past. But in this era of job jitters, the benefit from deleveraging could be significant over the next year. As households pare down existing debt levels, they will become more amenable to spending out of current income.”
The change in attitude could be small. But with growth fragile, even small gestures count for a lot.
#12 – MIW – if the article is true, then there will be a flood into the market with accelerated downward pressure on home prices. Straw that breaks camels back?
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/08/23/housing-in-ten-words/
Here is an interesting view from Baseline Scenario…analysts say…
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703846604575447961501122340.html
“New Fees Weighed for Mortgage Industry”
What to do, what to do…
Anyone know of a good calculator for checking effective interest rate? We make extra payments towards our mortgage, effectively lowering the interest rate/shortening our term. Trying to determine if refi is worth pursuing.
Cindy (24)-
That’s the worst thing I’ve ever seen at Baseline Scenario. A smart company or individual using housing as an investment (i.e., buying properly and renting out the unit) can do well- and has traditionally done well- in all kinds of markets.
Owner-occupied housing is a forced savings policy that is mis-sold as an investment. There never was any “era” of housing being a high-flying investment, yet it will probably continue to be sold as that…until such time as the general public wakes up to the scam and rejects the come-on.
Speaking of the investment potential of real estate without distinguishing between owner-occ’s and investors is a pointless exercise which yields specious results.
Cindy (25)-
When I read stuff like this, I just wonder whether these people in DC are even bigger shit-for-brains than one can comprehend…or, they are just corrupt and beholden beyond human belief.
Sadly, it’s probably both.
pill (26)-
You making extra interest or principal payments?
Just look at Australia. They managed to muck up their whole housing market- and blow a bigger bubble than ours- without any gubmint housing backup at all.
http://www.sacbee.com/capitolandcalifornia/
Clot – Here is a picture of “shit-for-brains”…….
“…Schwarzeneggar has demanded….”
Someone needs to explain to this guy that November is just around the corner..dude..you are out of a job.
Nomad 23 That is what I hope will happen. So much of that hope & change going around I might as well get on board.
10 year = 2.511
Cindy (31)-
I bet North Korea runs better than your state.
http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2010/08/portrait-of-california-foreclosures.html
Portrait of California Foreclosures
“Fewer than half of the mortgages in foreclosure were purchase loans. Thus, the typical foreclosure story is not a family reaching too far in order to buy an unaffordable house, but more likely, of using home equity to pay credit card debt and maintain a middle-class standard of living in the face of stagnating incomes.”
Final Doom (29) – Extra towards principal. Thx.
Liz Warren has a rap video now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W0vCgMRX0o&feature=player_embedded#!
pill (36)-
I’m sorry; I thought I had a resource, but I don’t.
Cindy your state is the only one that could make NY and NJ look like well run bastions of democracy
Doom 37 an UNEXPECTED demise is in the cards for Lizy, check the brake lines before you get in honey.
redpill,
Go to http://www.reduce-my-mortgage.com. They have a good calculator you can use there. You don’t need to buy their program just send the extra payment yourself.
Mike (40)-
One of the guys in my office has her at the top of his deadpool.
Pain 39 & that’s a mouth full.
Doom 42 We have a winner.
Hudson County not included because Frank tells us the results every week
July 2009 (On fire!)
July 2010 (On fire!)
Change (0%)
Pain 39:
Do not forget to include Illinois. That state makes California look like a well run machine.
It will be fun to see who goes down first, “I.O.W” California or “No Payment” Illinois.
OK, “I.O.U Califonia”. Man I need some coffee today.
Doom, Australia had a tax credit that dwarfed our $8,000 tax credit. They also had the luxury of importing China’s stimulus money into their economy through the sale of commodities.
Hype
At least Illinois is upfront about it and just flat out not paying. California is issuing worthless currency
Anyone dust off their DOW 10K hats there for a minute?
JULY EXISTING HOMES SALES PLUNGE 27.2%
Did they plunge or plummet? Seeing mixed headlines.
Haha, one of the headlines said “Home sales fall as expected, but prices rise”
They always find a way to put some potpourri on that enormous pile of crap.
Ruh roh…
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=19605
Biggest drop ever recorded, 15 year low.
Northeast drops 29.5%, worse than headline.
Grim:
Still going with your 10% remaining to drop prediction?
GDP Friday, Case Schiller Monday. Watch your 401ks return to 301Ks.
Ill take my 3.75 30 year now Ben.
10 years 2.48
So it begins.
2.47
Stu,
Yep.
Whoah, check out that silver chart. JP Morgans boys must be pissed
Question: When discussing the ‘structural’ part of a house – does this typically refer to just foundation & walls or would things like plumbing & electrical be included in that?
Per the NJAR quarterly stats median home prices dropped about 12% from 2008 to 2009. For the state average that means that a reverse to to mean historical trends targets median home values of 128K – 192K
For NNJ where the income is clearly higher, the 2008 to 2009 drop in median sales price was about 12% as well.
If we assume that we will revert to the general historic range of the median home costing 2 – 3X median household income then we end up with the following estimated drops remaining to reach those historical trends.
NNJ
% drop to 2X: 60%
% drop to 3X: 40%
% drop, Peak to 3X: 47%
% drop, Peak to 2X: 65%
CNJ
% drop to 2X: 44%
% drop to 3X: 16%
% drop, Peak to 3X: 26%
% drop, Peak to 2X: 51%
SNJ
% drop to 2X: 39%
% drop to 3X: 9%
% drop, Peak to 3X: 22%
% drop, Peak to 2X: 48%
NJ (State)
% drop to 2X: 58%
% drop to 3X: 37%
% drop, Peak to 3X: 46%
% drop, Peak to 2X: 64%
All calculations assume median household income remains flat. If median household income drops then median home prices would drop as well driving the % drops listed even higher.
Grim Plummet? Looks like they jumped of the viewing deck of the Empire State building
Monmouth County Closed Sales (MCMLS)
July 2009-Single family-483
July 2010-Single family-329
July 2009- Condo-149
July 2010-Condo-73
Targets for reversion to historical trend:
NJ State Median home price (thousands $)
2x target:
3x target:
NNJ Median home price (thousands $)
2x target: 147
3x target: 221
CNJ Median home price (thousands $)
2x target: 174
3x target: 261
SNJ Median home price (thousands $)
2x target: 123
3x target: 184
for these calculations i used the following definitions:
NNJ:Sussex, Passaic, Bergen, Morris, Warren, Essex, Union, Hudson
CNJ: Hunterdon, Somerset, Middles3x, Mercer, Monmouth
SNJ: Burlington, ocean, Camden, Salem, Gloucester, Cumberland, Atlantic
Targets for reversion to historical trend:
NJ State Median home price (thousands $)
2x target: 128
3x target: 192
62
From a builders point of view electrical, plumbing, and HVAC fall under the “mechanical” portion of a building.
“Grim Plummet? Looks like they jumped of the viewing deck of the Empire State building”
Thankfully, the stimulus packages, tax incentives, along with the fed buying 1.25T in mbs have saved the housing industry.
More food for thought:
Assuming that the median home price dropped to 3X median income and a conforming mortgage with 20% down, the PI on the house would be $780.00 per month. Assuming the same house has a $10K annual tax bill, the monthly tax bill is $833
Therefore if we even approach median home prices of 3X the average NJ tax bill could easily equal or surpass the PI on the house!!!!!
just started re-fi at wells-fargo 4.25% for 30 year.
Whoah, check out that silver chart. JP Morgans boys must be pissed Meanwhile, those deflationists are bragging about those 10 year UST bills they have earning 3%.
Hyde 70 – That is called the West Orange line. When a tax bill is greater than the mortgage payment.
Anyone stupid enough to buy USTs deserves whatever comes next.
They will be the ultimate bagholders.
Homeboken
And how can people say they “own” a house if your taxes are equal to or more then the PI on a mortgage? That’s called renting. The only difference is that the landlord is the state.
How long before they try this here?
Spain uses social security fund to prop up the bond market
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/amb….
The financial daily Cinco Dias reports that the share of the Fondo’s total portfolio invested in Spanish government bonds rose from below 50pc in 2007 to 76pc in 2009.
The Social Security minister Octavio Granado said it will rise to 90pc by the end of this year.
It is clear from an analysis of the data that the Fondo is not just investing fresh revenues in Spanish bonds, but also rotating out of Dutch, French, and German bonds into Spanish debt. The Spanish government is also funnelling 90pc of its sickness fund into state bonds.
Will be up +50 on the DJIA by close today. PPT has been called in.
Much thanks hughesrep. Looking at an older home & seller only willing to discuss structural, environmental and pest related issues.
If Spain’s recent move of using SS funds to prop up its bond market sounds fmailiar, then you were probably thinking of this:
December 07, 2001|From Bloomberg News
BUENOS AIRES — Argentina, which is defaulting on its debts, said it will seize $2.3 billion of retirement savings by forcing private pension funds to transfer the money to a state bank in exchange for Treasury bills.
Check this out:
But in some new developments, homebuilders are including in contracts a 1% fee to be paid to them every time the house is sold — for 99 years. And the money doesn’t go for improvements or upkeep: It’s just money in the builders’ pockets.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/23/real_estate/home_resale_fee/index.htm?hpt=T2
jj: where the fcuk are you? I need help…..
CUSIP 61745E5Q0 opinion?
How long before they try this here?
Spain uses social security fund to prop up the bond market
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/amb….
Dunno, but it’s the last resort. When everyone wants out of their position in bonds, governments force the public to go all in anyway.
State apologizes for mistreatment of Italian residents during WWII
Legislature passes resolution expressing ‘deepest regret’ for the wartime internment, curfews, confiscations and other indignities that thousands of Italian and Italian American families faced.
August 23, 2010|By Steve Chawkins, Los Angeles Times
When Mike Maiorana was a boy during World War II, his family was like a lot of others in his Monterey neighborhood.
In 1942, his mother was declared an “enemy alien,” along with 600,000 other Italians and half a million Germans and Japanese who weren’t U.S. citizens. More than once, men in suits searched the Maiorana house for guns, flashlights, cameras, shortwave radios — anything that could be used to signal the enemy.
Like 10,000 others up and down the California coast, the family was suddenly forced to uproot. At their new place in Salinas, they had to be home by 8 p.m. or face arrest. And when the government seized fishing boats for the war effort, Maiorana’s dad, a naturalized U.S. citizen, saw his livelihood go down the drain.
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“He was on the skids for the rest of his life,” said Maiorana, 75, who owns a boatyard and marina on the harbor where his father’s boat — as well as those of his uncles and several dozen other Italian fishermen — were confiscated.
Families like the Maioranas last week received a formal acknowledgement from California. A measure that swiftly made its way through the Legislature expresses the state’s “deepest regrets” over the mistreatment of Italians and Italian Americans during World War II. Not nearly as severe or long-lasting as the internment of Japanese Americans, the wartime restrictions are still little-known throughout California, where they were the most heavily enforced.
The resolution was the brainchild of a 79-year-old San Jose man who entered a legislator’s annual “There Oughta Be a Law” contest.
“The treatment Italians received in California was horrible,” said Chet Campanella, who recalled his father hiding a radio in a backyard chicken coop. “There wasn’t one tiny bit of evidence that any Italian was responsible for spying, sabotage, or doing anything else to hinder the war effort.”
A great theme for this mess of a depression
http://agaudi.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/supertramp-crisis-what-crisis.jpg
Chi JJ is probably knee deep in coeds at some mansion the Hamptons while the ogle the 22’s on his Denali
wow, I never thought I’d agree with this guy on anything…..
John Boehner says Obama economic team should resign
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_usa_boehner
#87, second that… First time Boehner said something sensible.
Alas, it will never happen.
Did JJ get axed or is he on a staycation again?
Here’s JJ…
http://tinyurl.com/jj-on-vacation
hyde (80)-
That will be our gubmint’s final act before we descend into total lawless mayhem. Take granny’s money, and piss it away trying to prop up worthless bonds.
If Argentina did it, rest assured we will try it.
What a nice judge….
Chris Simms, son of Giants legend Phil Simms, yesterday blew off a court date in his Manhattan tokin’-and-driving case — prompting ticked-off prosecutors to try to sic the warrant squad on the Tennessee Titan quarterback.
Prosecutors asked, without success, that an arrest warrant be issued after Simms, who turns 30 next week, chose to play in a preseason game instead.
He’s charged with driving while high on Houston Street last month. His lawyer sent the judge and prosecutors e-mails and letters warning he’d be absent, and Manhattan Criminal Court Judge Michael Yavinsky went easy on him — this time.
After lawyer Kim Richman called Monday not a good day for NFL players to appear in court, Yavinsky said, “I’m not issuing a bench warrant, but I want him here on a future date. If Mondays are bad because Sundays he works, let’s not pick a Monday.”
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/simms_son_skips_court_for_game_WEtysnvK2Y7q3bwPjOCqcO#ixzz0xXw42wlY
box (91)-
Titans fans probably wish there was a bounty on this bum.
Does this mean NJ is in a Race to the Bottom?
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/38832341
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/24/AR2010082403533.html?hpid=topnews
Stop the friggen stimulus already and let housing revert to mean. We will all be better off in the long run.
Back to the salt mine.
Clot
What happens to Spain when the tourists pack up and leave until next summer? I wonder if they have enough pension funds to holdout ?
shore (93)-
I always thought we were in a race to the bottom vs. IL and CA.
Did anybody really think NJ would see a penny of this money, with Christie and Schundler at the helm?
hyde (96)-
I just hope they aren’t too lazy to riot. However, I think they will rise to the occasion.
Also betting that STD and BBVA are ripe for bank runs this fall.
O/T
NY Mag has write up on the ailing Barnes and Noble and what looks like a slow steady march towards failure. Coupled with the possibility of a Borders bankruptcy and failure and that leaves an awful lot of prime retail that could go vacant.
The only retailer that matters is Cabela’s.
tosh and $hitty self help books with no potential homes. Will libraries come back into vogue. Watch the depression and find out
#100- clot – Surely I had you pegged as a US Cav sort of guy.
#101 – Pain – Yeah, B&N has largely become nothing more than some aisles you walk through on your way to the Starbucks at the back.
Kind of a shame. I know they’re not all that popular, given the corporate image, crowding out of mom-n-pops, etc. I will be sad to see them go.
“What happens to Spain when the tourists pack up and leave until next summer? I wonder if they have enough pension funds to holdout ?”
That’s why God created Germany.
They will bail out Spain and other lazy losers.
Yeah, Germany has such a great track record of giving a helping hand to its neighbors.
Bill Gross’ monthly jerk-off:
http://www.pimco.com/Pages/MrGrossGoestoWashington.aspx
Fun times: guys on the mortgage side now trying to deal with an out-of-the-blue 5K cash deposit into an applicant’s account. Borrower claims it’s a gift from mother-in-law, who flew into the country from Morocco and handed it to him.
The Treasury Department sells $37 billion in 2-year notes at a record low yield of 0.498%.
I like how the market crashes everytime we need to sell some debt.
This could be a good trading strategy.
Go long after today and short a few weeks before we sell some worthless paper to the world.
Why doesn’t the govt. just allow full recourse refi-mortgages at up to 200% of appraised value? That would grease the economy.
are those home sales for one month comparsion or for the whole year? Thanks
Clotpoll #90 –
how do they take my money? the don’t have my ATM Pin.
seriously, do they raid peoples bank and / or brokerage accounts?
this is going from ugly to really ugly. if the foreclosure process picks up it’s pace as some have indicated it will when BOA dumps Balboa, the current RE price drop is going to look good compared to what is coming.
All us putz’s spending time in college then working hard and saving to have it taken away by my uncle sam who I have never met. That sucks.
Nomad invest in brass the army is oversees, hence the paramilitary police forces we now have.
Spent it now because it won’t be worth dogs nuts in the future.
Doesn’t look like the PPT is stepping up today.
DL “won’t be worth dogs nuts” have to file that for future use, good one.
Little FASB exchange captured on Dealbreaker about mark to Fantasy.
http://dealbreaker.com/2010/08/other-than-that-i-have-no-concerns/#more-26718
Where is all the idle money hiding these days? Guns and gold?
Breaking news: FASB just passed new accounting ruling allowing companies to mark debt as cash (or anything that can keep the rally going for that matter) so go back and buy again folks. Everything is great. Summer of recovery remains intact.
Bill Gross is now begging for a new payoff from the Government. It’s truly pathetic that the “bond king” can’t generate significant returns without the aid of taxpayer capital.
If BO fires his economic team — sometime a week or two after Hell freezes over — he can name Norman Mott the new Treasury Secretary, hoople that he is.
I am using wampum as cash.
If a bulls’ nuts are mountain oysters, are dogs’ nuts suburban oysters?
Clot
You a fan of nash?
Nash has developed work on the role of money in society. Within the framing theorem that people can be so controlled and motivated by money that they may not be able to reason rationally about it, he has criticized interest groups that promote quasi-doctrines based on Keynesian economics that permit manipulative short-term inflation and debt tactics that ultimately undermine currencies. He has suggested a global “industrial consumption price index” system that would support the development of more “ideal money” that people could trust rather than more unstable “bad money”. He notes that some of his thinking parallels economist and political philosopher Friedrich Hayek’s thinking regarding money and a nontypical viewpoint of the function of the authorities
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash
Here is a guy who has the b@lls to be our next Fed Chair:
http://m.wcsh6.com/news.jsp?key=193644&rc=WC
There is an unemployment website that keeps popping up in many of the articles I am reading. http://unemployed-friends.forumotion.com/forum.htm
Folks are really struggling out there. While I have empathy for them I loathe the fact that they are groveling for the government to help them. Get mad, dont beg.
#126
“While I have empathy for them I loathe the fact that they are groveling for the government to help them. Get mad, dont beg.”
It seems you really want the struggling people to get mad at the government and provide you some with news and entertainment. You sound like a landlord villian in Bollywood movies.
Clot,
This may have been posted previously.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/offbeat/2010-08-13-scotch-whisky_N.htm
“While I have empathy for them I loathe the fact that they are groveling for the government to help them.”
AG,
Don’t blame them. They are only following the footsteps of IB’s, EU, commercial banks, gse’s, insurance/auto companies, states, municipalities, etc.. I guess it’s easier just to name those not sucking the teat?
“It seems you really want the struggling people to get mad at the government and provide you some with news and entertainment.”
I guess so. Kind of like this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ouLyJVxSYg
Little birdie tells me July contracts were in the gutter in NJ.
Look for next month’s sales data to disappoint as well.
and maybe the month after… and the month after…
All I could say is thank goodness Oblama is president. Can you imagine how much worse it would be if a republican was elected?
Were those drop in house sales unexpected or surprisingly unexpected?
#131
“Who is Herbert Hoover?”
Alex, I’ll take Republican presidents that fcuked the Economy for 400!
Gary how about totally unexpected. Better yet pissing in the wind numbers. No more tick tick tick how about BOOM!
Fabius funny!
Those POS capes won’t be worth a dogs nuts. Just had to use that today.
hyde (123)-
Any enemy of Keynes is a friend of mine.
sastry (126)-
He wants them to get mad, then get violent. I sure know I do.
“It seems you really want the struggling people to get mad at the government and provide you some with news and entertainment. You sound like a landlord villian in Bollywood movies.”
Let me qualify that. I want the gubmint union leeches to do the heavy lifting.
Fabius-
Received your missive. Gotta tell you, I’d forgotten we ever made that bet.
You are an honest man. Thanks!
Ket (123) Nash is brilliant and so very insightful on many topics. Batshit crazy at the same time. Last I heard, still teaching wlaking to the office each day.
#140 Clot
Still say they choke. That win was worthy of SAF.
Any team with CR7 on it runs the risk of having him roll around on the ground in big games rather than play.
Fist
Just received my estimated 2011 real estate tax bill. it will be 30% less than this year. RE tax is down 70% / yr from the 2005 peak.
Posting under another handle.
The bank and a short sale buyer are $11,000 apart. No one will budge and it is now a dead deal. The bank will never get that offer again. Next offer will be the obligatory $100 at the court house. A fine use of time and resources.
shore [123]
Link opens an article Woman attacked by a rabid woodchuck . Whom of the 2 are you recommending for a new Fed chair?
I’d go with the rabid woodchuck, couldn’t do much worse.
what?
real estate always goes up.
interest rates are at historical lows.
buy now or be priced out forever.
oh..wait a minute..
SAS
given up on studying anymore tonight.
Scotch #1 down…. scotch #2 en route.
coop? cheers to scotch!
sl
ok laphroaig ain’t bad….
It’s not quite “blue” but it ain’t bad either…
sl
cobbler (147)-
The woman…but only after she’s developed full-blown rabies.
sl (151)-
If you had a set, you’d take that exam cold. :)
I ain’t got balls that big, man…
sl
OK… so I’m near-drunk…. watching the latest episode of true blood.
I hope I can navigate to the advil bottle in the morning.
sl
two down… halfway through three….
sl
Hey, is Orin Kramer advising the IL teachers’ pension fund?
I don’t really understand this, except for the parts where they talk about death spirals and collateral calls:
“Two few months ago we disclosed how the Illinois Teachers’ Retirement System (TRS) was doing all it can to become the next AIG. In addition to, or maybe precisely due to, its deplorable fundamental condition, which can be summarized as being 61% underfunded on its $33.7 billion in assets, with a performance record of down $4.4 billion in 2009 and 5% in 2008, the fund, courtesy of a detailed analysis by Alexandra Harris of the Medill Journalism school at Northwestern, was found to be on its way to trying to become a veritable self-made TBTF: as was described then, “TRS is largely on the risky side of the contracts, selling and writing OTC derivatives, including credit default swaps, insurance-like contracts that guarantee payment in the event of a default.” In other words, TRS was selling substantial amounts of derivatives, which held the fund’s other assets as hostage in case the collateral calls started coming in, as should the market broadly decline, the value of the downside derivatives would “increase” and the seller (in this case TRS) would need to pledge ever more collateral against these wrong way bets. Not only that, but the Fund is currently getting annihilated on its curve exposure: “TRS appears to be betting that long-term Treasury yields will greatly increase” we wrote back then. So as a result of i) its massive underfunded fundamentals and ii) a bet that the market would turn bullish, i.e., spreads would drop (they are rising), and treasuries would plunge (we all know where they are today), which was supposed to happen by now but isn’t as the economy is now officially double dipping, the fund has basically thrown in the towel and is proceeding with liquidations. The problem there is that due to its derivative exposure, liquidations now become self-reinforcing, as more cash needs to be pledged as collateral in a declining market, and the AIG death spiral we all know and love, follows. The only thing missing is for Goldman to raise its overnight variation margin requirements and it’s game over, as we get a brand new AIG on our hands. And since Goldman is among the 60 or so asset managers that actually decide how the fund invests its meager assets, it is fully aware of its precarious position, and it is a sure bet that Goldman is currently deciding when to pull the plug on the TRS life support.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/has-illinois-teachers-fund-entered-death-spiral-aig-wannabes-go-broke-strategy-fails-pension
sl (156)-
Time for some Vicodin.
Can’t…do.. vicodin. I get sick…sooooooooo sick. I’m too roasted to open a bottle anyway… ..
sl
yep. i’m drunk.
sl
damn……. I have turned into a lightweight..
gawd.
sl
And a blabbering one too. :)
For those that asked about Hudson County, I invite you to visit http://www.NewJerseyRealEstateGuys.com. We track a lot of northern NJ real estate markets. Verdict: Not good. Hoboken is down almost 60% in sales volume however that is based on June’s peak sales which you can consider “skewed” due to the expiration of the tax credit. When compared to the rest of the year, we are still down significantly. Same goes for Jersey City, Montclair, Wyckoff, Franklin Lakes, etc…..Not even the Housewives are buying!!
We monitor, track and chart all sales, prices, and absorption. No fluff, just black and white info. Still…..not good. Do we need another crutch? Or do we need to recover on our own?
lib,
no shit,eh?
can no longer type either.
wow.
sl
ya. shitfaced.
Whatever you do, do not bake a cake.
Ben says:
August 24, 2010 at 4:23 pm
Bill Gross is now begging for a new payoff from the Government. It’s truly pathetic that the “bond king” can’t generate significant returns without the aid of taxpayer capital.
are you fcuking kidding? I don’t really care, but I just looked at a conservative position that I slammed into PIMCO Total Return in June 2007, and it is up 38% cumulative…given all the sh!t that went down the only stuff better is the crap I stuck in FICO zeros that were 10 years+…..not bad for a spindly over-the-hill geek who doesn’t shower…….
I want to know which one of you is in this pic.
Fess up.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/08/24/new.jersey.theft.photo/index.html?hpt=C1
Pat,
I can barely type. Cake? No fu,cking way.
I think I just gotta go to bed now…. ugh.
sl atleast I”ll sleep good.
Pat says:
August 24, 2010 at 11:32 pm
Whatever you do, do not bake a cake.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RK8mOxKhuBA
That is one funny picture and I had nary a drink.
If you keep staring at the guy in the back, it gets better.
are you fcuking kidding? I don’t really care, but I just looked at a conservative position that I slammed into PIMCO Total Return in June 2007, and it is up 38% cumulative…given all the sh!t that went down the only stuff better is the crap I stuck in FICO zeros that were 10 years+…..not bad for a spindly over-the-hill geek who doesn’t shower…….
Like I said…pathetic. I’d like to see Gross can do without Bernanke throwing him lifeboats. He’s the only fund manager that openly begs for a bailout on TV.
Ben: you know that PIMCO TR is the largest mutual fund by 40% over #2 at roughly $250B? The guy is laughing all the way to the bank, plus he can at least jawbone. If it was an equity fund it would move markets, but it is just a drop in the FI galaxy…..
s_l seems like you could use a stiff one!
And perhaps a smoke after.
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