Predictions 2011!

This is becoming a tradition around here, so here we go again! You know how this works, break out the crystal balls and prognosticate.

Ground Rules

Review the Predictions 2010! thread, and if you did make a prediction, please post it here so we know how you did (please do not skip this step). Predictions provided should either be for June 30th, 2011 or December 31st, 2011, please specify.

Provide justification for your forecast, where applicable (unless you are just making it up, if so, state that).

You may provide any caveats and/or assumptions that your forecast is based on.

You need not provide a forecast for all categories below.

Where applicable, forecasts are judged against the surveys/reports listed.

Real Estate
Existing Home Sales – NAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – OFHEO HPI

New Jersey
Existing Home Sales – NAR/NJAR
Existing Home Price – S&P Case Shiller HPI
Existing Home Price – OFHEO HPI

National New Home Sales – NAHB
Median New Home Price – NAHB

Energy (Oil, NatGas)
Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper)

United States
International Developed Markets
Emerging Markets

Mortgage Financing
30-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS
15-Year Fixed – Freddie Mac PMMS

10y Treasury
Fed Funds Rate
National Unemployment Rate
New Jersey Unemployment Rate

Anything else you’d like to make a prediction about.

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202 Responses to Predictions 2011!

  1. Essex says:

    I predict Christie will suffer a myocardial infarction and we will have a woman governor. She will be a tough but fair leader and lead the state to a recovery based on human genome research and bionics.

  2. Libtard in Cancun says:

    I predict I will get back to NJ sometime in 2010.

  3. Essex says:

    I predict the gubmint will continue to delay paying into the state’s pension fund. Taxes will continue to increase. We’ll leak more jobs. And someone will finally get wise and allow big pharma to package and distribute therapeutic hemp based products for the customers who suffer from Nausea and Malaise just residing in the Garden State.

  4. Al Mossberg says:

    I predict great pain and further suffering.

    Pension doom, municipal and state debt doom will be the flavor of the year. GOP will try to destroy the criminal unions by letting the states go bankrupt. Time to stock up on popcorn because its going to be a great show.

    Many are banking on QE 3 by summer/fall of 2011 to include state and thereby municipal bailouts. The Republicans have different motives and are holding a strong hand. Ill go with a compromise. QE 3 goes ahead with states and municipalities being bailed out but what will the concessions be? I have no idea.

  5. Qwerty says:

    I predict this NY City snow plow crew will be fired:

    (Warning: some cursing.)

  6. 30 year realtor says:

    I predict values of NJ condominiums will fall faster than the residential market in general.

  7. Confused In NJ says:

    I predict the Federal PBGC will take over all State Pension Funds and limit payments based upon the Private Sector Average for each State assuring complete Public/Private Sector parity “For The Children & Their Parents”.

  8. I definitely think the Celtics will make it into the finals. Other teams that may make it are the Mavis, Lakes, and Spurs, and Jazz. Looking at the top 2 teams now i would say Celtics .vs. Jazz.

  9. I’m impressed with myself for this one:

    Post #24 from the 2010 predictions thread:

    “The USG, JPM and GS will be exposed to the general public as manipulators in the precious metals markets.”

  10. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Rex will put his best foot forward in the 2011 playoffs.

  11. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    The US will continue to be a nation of wussies and Philadelphia will be its capital.

  12. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Abby Joseph Cohen will be bullish in 2011.

  13. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    Abby Joseph Cohen will drop the Abby from her name.

  14. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    In 6/11, Bergabe will hand over the copter keys to Jim Willie.

  15. grim says:

    Made it out of EWR this morning on US Airways, no issues,
    no lines, no delays, . Landed in CLT 10 minutes early and waiting for my

  16. Yikes says:

    must-see slideshow: Ruins of Detroit. Like something out of ‘The Road’

  17. Jim says:

    I believe Essex will be crying like a baby after his wife’s pension is halved, and her benefits l reflect the real world , not the entitlement world they are used to. The People will finally realize our education system ranks 25th in the top 30 of all industralized nations

    Governor Christie will be adored by the working people of NJ, while the NJEA and PBA will put a price on his head.

    Interest rates will finally increase slightly, which will further the decline in real estate.Unemployment will be higher than it is now and dollar will finally increase in value.

    A VAT tax will be seriously discussed in Washington, but not yet approved, but will be before 2015.

  18. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Kitco fires Jon Nadler and replaces him with Al Mossberg Gore.

  19. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    RE? No need for a 2011 prediction, the blood bath continues. A perfect storm; higher rates in conjunction with a tsunami of resets. QE3, 4, 5, 6, etc…

  20. Mike says:

    Just what I keep posting same old boring stuff: Outsourcing will pick up momentum with local & state governments. Private industry will utilize it even more at higher levels. Once again this will fall over into the housing why? Lower wages and individuals paying for there own health care add some lack of confidence and voila. Sorry I’m not much of a stock picker but how about buying into the companies that sell outsourcing services?

  21. Here’s a big theme for 2011, courtesy of ZH:

    “The truth is that the stock market is the LEAST reliable indicator of economic strength, especially during major fiscal downturns. The Great Depression was blatant proof of this, but the smoke-and-mirrors magic show has been elevated to a new level today by the introduction of quantitative easing measures by the Federal Reserve. Most intelligent financial analysts have been crying foul for a couple years now over these monopoly money injections, and have pointed out that a substantial portion of the funds are being pumped into stocks in order to create a zombie market; a kind of “Night of the Living Dow”, a market that has diminished real investment and relies almost solely on constant formaldehyde-like fiat transfusions from the Fed and the government. In fact, Charles Biderman of the investment research firm ‘TrimTabs’ recently announced on CNBC (of all places) that after two years of investigations into capital inflows into stock markets, his conclusion was that retail investors have quit stocks, and the only thing holding up the Dow today is the Federal Reserve itself.”

  22. I think this is one of the most important information for me. And im glad reading your article. Good job, cheers

  23. From the same article referenced in #24:

    “Since oil is widely traded in dollars, it is perhaps the commodity most sensitive to dollar inflation. If supply and demand (real or imagined) are not the acting players in the current oil climb, then we are left with only one other option; currency devaluation. As we have covered in past articles, commodities across the board are tearing towards historic highs, while global demand for goods continues to fall. Oil is no exception. Establishment economists in the U.S. and in most of Europe have avoided the dollar collapse issue like Lyme disease, but other nations around the world will not. OPEC has been expressing concerns over dollar weakness and openly suggesting dropping the dollar peg since 2007.”

  24. Alap says:

    I predict Clot will predict oblivion.

  25. JJ says:

    I predict
    Muni GOs will have a strong 2011
    Stocks will have good gains 1q 2011 then have lackluster performance the rest of year
    Treasuries will have a weak Q1 then a good rest of year as people realize unemployment is still high
    Junk bonds average year
    Investment grade below average year
    RE on low end a respectable year
    RE on high end one million to five million homes will have a weak year. Combination of delayed defaults on mortgages, higher heating costs and higher taxes. Additionally, with strong stock returns less reason to sell stocks and plow into a high end home.

    Also predict, either Chris Christie will hint he will run for president and will be laughed at harder than when Rex Ryan wife’s feet were posted all over internet.

    Also predict GM – will have a good year for car sales.

    Giants won’t make play-offs and Coach is fired.

    Shea Stadium bonds will be in a heap of trouble as they will have many empty seats.

    Finally, we will have a GMAC IPO that is a success.

  26. Anon E. Moose says:

    I predict the people whose lives are or were threatened by Clot, specifically or generically, and/or whom he predicts will perish in the coming apocalypse, will fill Giant Stadium on New Year’s Eve 2011 before going on to live to ripe old ages.

  27. JJ says:

    In December 2007 Abby Joseph Cohen predicted the S&P 500 index would reach 1,675 in 2008. The S&P 500 traded as low as 741.02 by November 2008.
    Mr Wantanapolous says:
    December 29, 2010 at 7:48 am

    Abby Joseph Cohen will be bullish in 2011.

  28. JJ says:

    I predict Rex Ryan will rub Chris Christies feet.

  29. dan says:

    Clot #9,

    Zerohedge exposing the metals manipulation isn’t exactly the NYT but I’ll still say your prediction was correct.

  30. dan says:

    Wow did my predictions suck. Qwerty’s looked pretty good.

    Nick Johnson not a key Yankee to say out by May.

    Got nothing right except Volt and unsold Jets PSL’s.

    Fidel being dead should get half-credit.

  31. Essex says:

    Wow Jim. Firstv you ‘ll hafta define working people of NJ. That’ll be harder and harder. A thinking person would admit it’s a stretch to ‘rely’ on a teacher’s pension. That in itself tells me more about Jim than i need to know. It also makes me laugh.

  32. Regards for all the great blog posts!

  33. Richie says:

    What day is “December 31th”?? Fix your grammar!!

  34. Essex says:

    Real Prediction: Stigma of the Home Mortgage Default vanishes to be replaced by strategic defaults in the second dip of the housing crash. With this double dip comes bank defaults in excess of 100 for the year 2011. Two big ones go down.

  35. Essex says:

    29. Old age in this country will be defined by the working and the retired in completely different terms. Old and Enslaved will be reserved for those who hit 70 and still work.

  36. grim says:

    Nola, no problems

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I predict that JJ will be wrong on nearly all of his predictions.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I also predict that:

    At least one mid-sized city will resort to Chp. 9;

    If a high profile expatriate renounces citizenship, MSM will be all over it. Congress will then try to toughen the HEART Act exit tax provisions and put more roadblocks in front of expatriates, leading to an uptick in expatriation. If it occurs, it will be the second-most hyped story of the year;

    Congress and the Administration will be utterly gridlocked, except for a few, largely insignificant “bipartisan” agreements. The sole exception will be state bailouts (see below).

    Obama will try to triangulate, without much success;

    Unemployment remains largely unchanged;

    Some form of bailout for the state’s will gain traction in the Congress, and will ignite the TEA Parties. This will be the political story of the year, and will generate almost as much heat and light as Obamacare did.

    The Deplumes will have left NJ, or will be planning to do so in early 2012.

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [27] Alap

    I predict Alap will be 100% correct.

  40. JJ says:

    I have never been wrong. But there is always a first. Then again when I said buy Citi, AIG, GMAC and Ford bonds in 2009 I was also laughed at. I thought these predictions were pretty mild.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    December 29, 2010 at 12:11 pm

    I predict that JJ will be wrong on nearly all of his predictions.

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Finally, I predict that SX [37] will be half-right and half-wrong. The strategic default crisis will worsen, but Congress and Obama will protect the banks.

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [43] JJ

    Yes, you have never been wrong, all your conquests have been supermodels, all of your cars outperformed, your schlong is long and strong, and you are, in all respects, the ultimate male.

    Yet there is a first time for everything.

  43. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Okay, gotta take the dog for a walk, fire the nanny that did not show up today, and go get some things done.

    Peace out, y’all.

  44. chicagofinance says:

    grim: reposting for your benefit….

    204.chicagofinance says:
    December 18, 2010 at 9:07 pm
    DECEMBER 18, 2010
    The Hangover Helper

    Gooey, salty, meaty and cheesy, mega-omelets save the day


    Every city has a hairy-tongued pride over its culinary cure-alls for hangover rejuvenation, but few locations boast as many heavenly dietary “treatments” as New Orleans, where feeling happy-crappy in the dawn hours is something of the norm.

    The city’s indigenous fare is salty, saucy, greasy, briny and fried: hangover staples. Options are endless. You can go for fried beignets and cafe au lait or greasy-spoon biscuits and sausage gravy. The many takes on eggs Benedict often include lump crab meat, fried oysters, sauteed catfish, shrimp, and boudin and andouille sausages. Other locals make lunch their breakfast, opting for roast-beef po’boys slathered in mayo and beef “debris.”

    But true hungover foodies, from all over the world, know that there’s only one special place to go in New Orleans for a gustatory mega-protein dish that tops them all—designated particularly as the destination to hit after a hoo-hah such as New Year’s Eve, Fat Tuesday or a Saints playoff win. After mixing champagne with gin fizzes—and Sazeracs—I too once followed the streetcar route uptown to this Hangover Helper Mecca. On a hard-partying holiday binge—self-loathing, still in black tie, Vaseline memory, pounding cranium, stomach empty—I landed a coveted counter stool at the Camellia Grill, and ordered its piece de resistance: “The Chef Special”.

    The column-fronted diner has been famous since 1946 for this chili-meat-cheese omelet, served with a side of fries, downed with a stomach-lining vanilla shake. Its yum-factor defies hyberbole: just read the recipe. Whether its ingredients actually provide a cure matters not. It is comfort food at the highest level.

    Many nutritionists and dietary studies maintain there are no absolute food ingredients, preparations or specific meals that will keep the blood vessels in your head from expanding (headache) or small intestine from choking (nausea), in treating or reducing an alcohol-induced hangover. We’ve all heard the routine advice: “Rehydrate.” And: “Drink lots of water.”

    Yet eggs contain large amounts of cysteine, an amino acid that helps neutralize and break down the hangover-inducing toxin acetaldehyde in the liver. And of course, hot peppers, a common egg accomplice, contain salicylates, a compound that is also the basis of aspirin.

    And then there’s fat. Billy Waite, a co-owner of the New York gastropub the Brooklyneer, said: “Bacon contains a lot of amino acids, which helps replenish depleted neurotransmitters. To me, it’s all about pleasing the synapses.” While his establishment provides many of the requisite hangover suspects—deviled eggs, bread-and-butter pickles, Old Bay-seasoned peanuts—Mr. Waite remains resolute about bacon’s healing power. “Bacon is nature’s Prozac.”

    Mr. Waite is one of legions of foodies who know better than to listen to doctors’ orders: A steaming, buttery omelet—with salty meats, melted cheese and a heap of chili con carne—provides a one-two-three punch of psychological, visual and olfactory comfort. Not to mention it tastes terrific. Make one of the tastiest of them all at home (see recipe), or consider our formidable “morning-after” omelet nominees (below) from hangover hostels all over the States. Dig in.

    Serves 1

    3 eggs
    ½ cup diced potatoes, boiled until tender
    ½ cup diced onion
    ½ cup diced ham
    ½ cup diced bacon, cooked
    ½ cup diced turkey
    1 slice Swiss cheese
    1 slice American cheese
    5 ounces cooked chili


    1. Put eggs in a blender and mix on high until mixture is almost white.

    2. Toss potatoes, onions, ham, bacon and turkey onto heated grill pan and sauté for 30 seconds.

    3. Pour eggs over all, adding cheese on top of egg and ingredients, gently rolling eggs over into pillow shape. Let cook for 2 minutes, or until firm.

    4. Place omelet on large plate and cover with chili.

    Suggested: Serve with heaping mound of French fries on the side.

    —Recipe from the Camellia Grill, New Orleans (open New Year’s Day)
    Write to Steve Garbarino at

  45. Anon E. Moose says:

    In lieu of Grim’s usual sampling of news stories in the
    comments, I offer this courtesy of the NY Times: In 2006, a couple
    (husband a construction worker, wife in the finance industry,
    bought a $250k house in the suburbs of Philadelphia with nothing
    down (80-20, variable rate first, second at 12%). After only 1
    year, both of their fortunes fade — his construction work
    evaporates, her fiannce commissions diminish. Predictably, they
    can’t pay on their mortgage(s). They parade their stupidity of the
    front page of the NY Times in July 2008 (link), and become poster children for
    all that is wrong with the mortgage business, courtesy of Gretchen
    Morgenson. They are rewarded for their trouble with the second lein
    holder forgiving the entire debt (by then, $62,000 including
    collections and late charges), and forgiven missed payments on the
    first mortgage, which is also reduced to a 5 & 3/8 fixed
    rate, plus they get an encore appearance on the Christmas Day 2010
    Business Section (link). Lets see: Jobs in the “can’t
    lose” construction and finance sectors – check Buy an overpriced
    shack with nothing down – check Jobs tank when the bubble runs out
    of steam – check Cry poverty on the front page of the NY Times –
    check Get bailed out to the tune of 20% (about the amount of the
    phantom downpayment that they never had to save for) – check And
    Gretchen says this is a good outcome and we should see more of it.
    “One more such victory will undo me!” – Pyrrhus of Epirus

  46. chicagofinance says:

    DECEMBER 29, 2010
    A Precocious U.S. Soccer Star Rises Quickly in New Jersey


    In the 85th minute of a game in Cape Town, South Africa, last month, Juan Agudelo, a 17-year-old New Jersey resident, trapped a ball, passed it and when he received it again was still seven yards from the goal and seemingly years away from any notoriety.

    But when his shot ricocheted off the crossbar and just past the goal line, he became an instant star—and the newest hope for U.S. Soccer, the New York Red Bulls and the entire state of New Jersey.

    In the 1-0 win against South Africa, he became the youngest player in the modern era to score a goal for the United States national team, breaking the record of Jozy Altidore, who scored against Mexico at age 18 in 2008.

    “His development in the last year has been phenomenal and these last few months have been unbelievable for him,” said Red Bulls general manager Erik Soler. “I cant believe that a year ago I was sitting down with his parents to work out a plan for his schooling. He has come along incredibly quickly.”

    Mr. Agudelo, who has turned 18 since the goal, has gone from little-known product of the Red Bulls Academy to a potential phenom with the help of a few modern American soccer trends. Born in Colombia, he moved to the U.S. when he was 8 years old and is now based in Barnegat, N.J., where a confluence of immigrants who brought a passion for soccer with them to America and a sports-mad state have created a soccer hotbed.

    “When you’re playing with a New Jersey team and you play all across the country, I felt that New Jersey had much more developed teams than anyone,” Mr. Agudelo said. “Maybe California is similar, but New Jersey really is the capital of United States soccer.”

    The state has produced stars such as Claudio Reyna, Tony Meola and even Giuseppe Rossi, a Clifton native who uses his Italian heritage to play for the Italian national team in international competition.

    Mr. Soler, a Norway native who joined the Red Bulls in 2009, said that he has been impressed with the intensity in which the state cares about the sport and has been blown away by the number of talented clubs and players.

    Mr. Agudelo said he didn’t notice that he was an elite talent until he was 14—practically ancient in the world of youth soccer and an age when players in other parts of the world are already well on the track to professional stardom. He was invited to a prestigious USA Soccer camp for players under 17 in 2008, when he was 15. Around that time he benefited from another break: Red Bulls’ academies in New Jersey and New York were emerging as elite within Major League soccer.

    The franchise pumps $500,000 a year into the five youth teams in the New York and New Jersey area. The Red Bulls also have academies in Brazil and Ghana.

    As the hype around Mr. Agudelo builds, so do the questions about his future. His goals, he said, are to play in Europe and “at the World Cup Level, living good with no financial worries.”

    Mr. Soler will not in stand in his way—once he’s ready. The Red Bulls “have a firm policy at the club that we will sell a player and help a player get into a larger market once that helps him. We believe he needs at least a couple of more years here and anyone asking in the next few months will get exactly that answer.”

    The franchise has previous experience in the phenom department: Mr. Altidore played for the Red Bulls before departing for Europe in 2008 at age 19.

    U.S. coach Bob Bradley told reporters after Mr. Agudelo’s goal against South Africa that he’s “excited to work with him,” with a reminder that he’s still young. This month, Mr. Bradley called up Mr. Agudelo to the national team’s training camp, which begins Jan. 4 in California.

    Mr. Agudelo said most of his conversations with Mr. Bradley have involved keeping his feet on the ground and focusing on soccer. This is easier said than done as a whirlwind of attention swirls around him. Their first such conversation was a day after Mr. Agudelo’s goal on the team’s way to meet former South African President Nelson Mandela.

    Mr. Soler said that Mr. Agudelo reminds him of former German superstar Jurgen Klinsmann, a striker who scored 238 career goals for European powers like Bayern Munich and Tottenham Hotspur and also led Germany to the 1990 World Cup title. Mr. Soler played against Mr. Klinsmann in Germany when Mr. Klinsmann was in his late teens.

    “Jurgen beat me badly, and the way Jurgen attacked me is what [Agudelo] does,” Mr. Soler said, noting Mr. Agudelo’s speed. “From there, Jurgen developed into a world-class player. It’s up to Juan to develop into that, but we haven’t seen anything that makes us think he’s hit anything close to his limit.”

    Though 20-year-old Giorgi Chirgadze was the first Red Bulls Academy player signed under the MLS’s homegrown player rule, he has been hampered by injuries, making Mr. Agudelo the first clear star the academy has produced. Mr. Soler said his most important task is to take Mr. Agudelo’s development slowly.

    He made his first appearance as a Red Bull in the MLS playoffs when French star Thierry Henry was battling a knee injury. And Red Bulls manager Hans Backe said Mr. Agudelo played “more than well” in his limited action.

    “One day, hopefully, he gets too big for us, ” Mr. Soler said.

  47. Anon E. Moose says:

    HELP! In moderation hell.

  48. JJ says:

    Post of the year

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    December 29, 2010 at 12:27 pm

    [43] JJ

    Yes, you have never been wrong, all your conquests have been supermodels, all of your cars outperformed, your schlong is long and strong, and you are, in all respects, the ultimate male.

    Yet there is a first time for everything.

  49. JJ says:

    Last [Tick] $36.070000[-]

    My company is doing well this week.

  50. NJGator says:

    I guess Cory Booker is starting to ramp up his campaign against the Fat Man…

    Mayor Uses Twitter Power in New Jersey Blizzard Cleanup

    If you’re a mayor of a northeastern U.S. city, you probably despise Cory Booker right now, because the tweeting mayor of Newark, N.J., is now a social-media superhero, able to move towering snowbanks in a single push – or by sending the shovels and plows your way.

    After a blizzard started blanketing the Northeast on Dec. 26, an event that earned the Twitter hashtag #snowpocalypse, Booker turned the microblogging site into a public-service tool. Residents of the city, which has a population of around 280,000, swarmed Booker’s account (@CoryBooker) with requests for help, and the mayor responded. He and his staff have bounced around Newark shoveling streets and sending plows to areas where residents said they were still snowed in. “Just doug [sic] a car out on Springfield Ave and broke the cardinal rule: ‘Lift with your Knees!!’ I think I left part of my back back there,” he reported in one message. One person let Booker know, via Twitter, that the snowy streets were preventing his sister from buying diapers. About an hour later, Booker was at the sister’s door, diapers in hand. (See photos of the blizzard that slammed the Northeast.)

    Booker’s frantic Twitter feed reads like an action novel. “I have a snowpocalypse crush on @CoryBooker,” wrote one of Booker’s million-plus followers. “He’s like a superhero with a shovel.” The mayor was out clearing snow until 3 a.m. on Dec. 28 before heading back out three hours later after a few winks. “This is one of those times you’re just pushing,” Booker told TIME while riding around Newark early Tuesday evening, anxiously awaiting a Twitter response from a Newark resident who said her 82-year-old grandmother was shut in by snow. A few minutes earlier, Booker, who played football at Stanford, helped dig out a New Jersey transit bus. “It’s an endurance test.” This is not the first time Booker has responded to distressed citizens on Twitter. He shoveled the driveway of an elderly man last New Year’s Eve after the man’s daughter tweeted about his predicament. He also hit the streets during snowstorms last February.

  51. homeboken says:

    Somebody needs to explain opportunity cost to Booker. Nobel yes, best use of his time, no way.

  52. Shore Guy says:

    H. The decrease exceeded the 0.2 percent drop projected by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News

    So, the estimates were off by400%?

  53. Shore Guy says:

    5 QWERTY

    I predict that if the City fires them an arbitrator will reinstate them citing lack of progressive discipline and will award them back pay for the year it takes to get to hearing.

  54. Double Down says:

    Why would someone away on a Caribbean vacation spend even 1 second on a computer, let alone reading and posting about snow and NJ?

  55. NJGator says:

    Double Down – we returned to reality late last night.

  56. dan says:

    Glad to see everyone in Newark is glad a blizzard came so they can fall back in love with the Mayor. Gets rid of all those inconvenient headlines where eveyone else is killing each other.

  57. Barbara says:

    why can’t these f*cktards in Newark just shovel their asses out like everyone else? We were snowed in for nearly two days while we shoveled out. Get a grip.

  58. Zhang Fei says:

    NDP: I predict that JJ will be wrong on nearly all of his predictions.

    As a chastened former JJ skeptic, I predict that anyone who bets against him will lose money.

  59. JJ says:

    I am always 100% right until I am wrong.

    High end homes still bother me. I have a good income and I keep running numbers on a few 2007 era 1.5 million homes that are now for sale for 1.2 million and guess what still makes no sense to me. For example I need to put down 600K on these houses to stay out of a jumbo and keep mortgage somewhat affordabel. Well, I could get 5% tax free on my 600K which is $30k a year. Then the 700K I borrow is costing me at 5% 35K a year. Finally, my RE taxes on these houses are 12k more than I am not paying. Also additional insurance, heating, maint, electricity, insurance is 1k a month on a big house. So
    30K lost investment income
    30K mortgage interest (around 5k is principal so I will skip)
    12K extra in taxes
    12K extra heat/maint/insurance etc.

    So I need my big house to appreciate $84,000 a year every year for next 30 years to break even. Lets say it does. That would make todays 1.2 million home worth over $3,700,000 in 30 years. Unless we get a bout of good inflation with our current stagant salaries and 10% unemployment how is that happening.

    Everything is overstated at high end. Jets/Giants were able to sell seats with $120 tickets. Jets/Giants could not sell seats with $500 tickets, why well both said ticket prices rise on average 3% a year. 3% of $120 big deal, 3% of $500 over 30 years huge deal.


    Zhang Fei says:
    December 29, 2010 at 4:07 pm

    NDP: I predict that JJ will be wrong on nearly all of his predictions.

    As a chastened former JJ skeptic, I predict that anyone who bets against him will lose money.

  60. I predict that Moose will realize what a sad bastard he is, and off himself.

  61. Essex says:

    60. Have YOU ever tried to hold a snow shovel AND a crack pipe?!

  62. Essex says:

    I predict a Nobel for JJ. A Peabody for Grim. An NRA Plaque for Al, and a fixer upper for Barbara. I will keep my Mortgage and Heloc current until I don’t. (LOL)

  63. NJGator says:


    You are forgetting about the dollar value of being the envy of your peers.

    A home is not an investment. Nor are Jets tickets. You know that.

  64. chi (49)-

    Good article. Aguedelo is a very good player.

    However, as good as NJ youth soccer is, there are better teams and more developed players in Ohio, Michigan and Florida. In all three of those states, you can see the effect of athletes who in the past would’ve chosen football choosing soccer instead. They are strong, fast, direct, physical and skilled enough to play tactically from as young as the U-12 level.

  65. home (54)-

    But when will Cory dig out the crack houses?

  66. jj (62)-

    You are right to be worried about high-end housing. From what I see, it’s about to reach terminal velocity. A new wave of FKs should be coming in early 2011.

  67. Shore Guy says:

    I predict that, just like John, Mrs Shore and I will again decide that it makes no sense to buy another house. If we spend it on dinners and vacations, at least we getsomething out of the expense. Speaking of whoch, does anyone hbave a recomendation for good places to eat in San Juan?

  68. Shore Guy says:

    Android keyboards suck.

  69. Al Mossberg says:

    December 2011 Gold prediction. 1650-1800
    Silver prediction. 40-50 / ounce

    Junior miners outperform the above.

  70. Shore Guy says:

    I want a beach house like the one in the movie Reds.

  71. Shore Guy says:

    I predict that for every “right” decision we all make the USG will find a way to scr EW us I’m order to protect others who fcuk up.

  72. Wag says:

    Shore (70) La Mayorquina in Old San Juan.

  73. Al Mossberg says:

    To all those public employees that called out sick during the blizzard let me remind you of something.

    “New Jersey’s pension-funding deficit increased by $8.05 billion, or 18%, this year to $53.9 billion as the state failed to make contributions. The unfunded pension liability was $45.8 billion as of June 2009. New Jersey also faces an unfunded liability of $66.8 billion for providing medical care to retired public employees.”

    Better wipe the cake off your mouth and get back to work. 20 years sitting on your fat bottom while expecting a nice pension is going up in smoke. Bwahahaha!

  74. Shore Guy says:

    If pensions take a hit, do people here se across -the-board cuts or cuts to those receiving over$X?

  75. Mikeinwaiting says:

    RE down 10% in the hinterland. (NW Sussex county) OK, it’s a gimme.
    Gold, silver: either to the moon or get crushed, 30% either way. Could do both over a year just think they have to make a move.
    Unemployment 9-9.5 second half.
    Pensions remain for those getting them , new deal for future pensioners.
    Municipal employees also get slapped in other ways , medical etc.
    Christie does not drop dead much to Essex-es dismay.
    China bubble busting slowdown there, Aussie dollar gets crushed in process.
    USD remains strong as Europe debt continues to plague the Euro.(least smelly pile of sh*t)
    Oil goes up over 130 causes anemic growth USA then goes down as it puts the economy in the crapper again. (not that it is so good now)
    Muni bonds do default not to Whitney’s call level, but never the less action is needed by federal gov. to sure up. ( how far or to what extent they are bailed out unknown, this new congress is yet to be tested)
    Shore Guy gets taxed more, as do most. (not me I’m poor)
    I smell a VAT but we shall see.
    Interest rates up not to the moon but6.5 now would sink the ship, actually that is still low.(great time to buy you know!)
    Wild-cards: N/S Korea, Iran, terrorist hit us or some other false flag event. JJ giving up onions could also wreak havoc on the world stage, but I digress.

  76. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Anyone want to go drinking with kettle,wag & me. Come on stu/libtard your off.

  77. Mikeinwaiting says:

    700pm tonight Mohawk House, Sparta NJ.

  78. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore 77 I think it would be fairer to cap at X amount ,let everyone eat not some getting very very little & others twice as much. Take the median cut everyone above down, solvent? I don’t know.

  79. chicagofinance says:

    Here is the biography of JJ, except the lead is Eddie Murphy….
    the scene with JJ’s dad….

  80. NJGator says:


    Would have loved to but got in way way late last night and Gator has a haircut appointment already so I have the little guy who went to bed at 12:45 last night. Thanks for the invite though.

  81. sas3 says:

    #78… “Shore Guy gets taxed more, as do most”

    The rates have been going down — 2011 rates will be lower than last year’s — with 200 bps reduction in FICA taxes!

    Any increase in tax rates will not happen in 2011 and 2012. Everyone will be taxed at a lower rate than in 2010 (except the ones that get estate windfalls).

    Of course, there is a way for everyone to pay more in taxes — if everyone makes much more, but that would need a big boost of inflation.

  82. Shore Guy says:

    I CC can get a handle on NJ’s taxes and debt, I see him as a VP candidate in ’12.

  83. Fabius Maximus says:

    I’ll give last years call a 50% hit rate. My Dow 11500 balances aginst the $100-$150 Oil
    call. German GDP growth balances against Greece beating Spain to a bailout. Wheat wars never showed

    My WAGs for this year.

    RE North East – Low End Flat Mid End 5-10% drop High End 10% drop with very low volume.

    Gold Silver have big corrections. Silver gives up most of its 70% gain from this year and Gold gives up 20% back to $1100 on a run.
    Food commodities surge, and rare earths spark the trade war with China.
    Dow 13K and S&P up 10%.
    The small number of Munis that look to default will get bailed out and the states get to restructure debt to very long term low rates

    11/11/11 Rapture hype will surpass Y2K hysteria. Doomsday sites are already taking a spread of +/- 90days. Germany pulls out of the Euro.

    Bonehead and Palpadine try to stall congress in a scorched earth policy with the economy to try and make O look bad for 2012. They take a shellacking when they have to whip the troops, to sign off on the extension to the debt ceiling. Newt comes out as the front runner for 2012.

    9% unemployment throughout the year.

    APPL and other tech get big tax breaks to start onshoring manufacturing after the Human Rights abuses in China get exposed. It will be like the Garment industry with Sweat Shop labor Mk II.

    Tech 2 explodes and crossover starts. M&A and Tech IPOs will be back to 2000 levels.
    GOOG and MSFT bid for FCC spectrum in test markets and look to buy the likes of Newscorp. Facebook games go mainstream Farmville for Wii and MafiaWars for PS3/XBox.
    Chevvy Volt is a retail bust, but is saved by fleet sales.

    Steelers over Eagles in the Superbowl

    Clot to predict “rioting the in the streets by June” for the 3rd year in a row … :*)

  84. Fabius Maximus says:

    Oh well it looks like my predictions hit Mod.

  85. Fabius Maximus says:

    Which is why only those of independent means or well connected support run for office.

    Feds probe Christine O’Donnell’s campaign spending

  86. nj escapee says:

    I predict that:
    – US based major corporations will commit to start hiring in 2011. Probably in India and China.
    – Obamacare will get modifications due to verdicts in the courts.
    – Oil price will moderate. If not the US economy will slow to near recesion level and then the price of oil will come down.
    – Dems and repugs will finally announce their long planned merger into one party to save on campaign costs and conserve space on ballots.

  87. Essex says:

    85. He’s definitely a little arrogant to run as a VP. Besides, the GOP will have their hands full. Most people don’t trust the retards they field.

  88. Essex says:

    Short Hills investment firm charged with Ponzi scheme
    Wednesday, December 29, 2010
    The Item of Millburn and Short Hills
    Of the Item

    The New Jersey Office of the Attorney General and the Bureau of Securities have filed a lawsuit against Carr Miller Capital LLC and its three principals. The firm’s principal place of business is listed on JFK Parkway in Short Hills and has operations out of South Jersey.

    The allegation is use of a Ponzi scheme and other means to defraud investors of over $40 million.

    Everett Charles Ford Miller, 41, President of Carr Miller Capital, and Ryan Jude Carr, 34, and Brian Patrick Carr, 39, cousins and employees of Carr Miller Capital, are named as defendants in the state’s nine-count Complaint. The lawsuit filed in State Superior Court in Newark alleges that the defendants violated numerous state Uniform Securities Laws by committing fraud, commingling funds and selling unregistered securities.

    The lawsuit alleges that in December 2009 Carr Miller Capital LLC changed its named to Capital Markets Advisory, LLC. The Bureau and state alleged that Carr Miller Capital LLC continued to operate as a separate company after the name change.

    According to the lawsuit, in or about 2007, Carr Miller Capital LLC and/or Capital Markets Advisory LLC through the defendants sold and continued to sell securities in the form of promissory notes. The document states that the Carr Miller notes had a term of nine months and promised returns of between 10 percent and 15 percent per year and return of the principal investment at the end of the nine-month period. It also states that the Carr Miller Notes were not registered with the Bureau, nor were they exempt from registration.

    According to the lawsuit, between 2007 -2009 Carr Miller Capital LLC and related companies received $40 million in deposits. About $36 million of those deposits was from individuals and IRA’s, Four million dollars was from the firm’s own employees. The investigation revealed that $16 million of the total was transferred into businesses purportedly operated by related companies including hedge funds, real estate, film production companies and an oil and gas venture.

    Erza Zask with SFC Associates is a senior expert on hedge funds, securities, and Ponzi schemes with 20 years experience as a consultant. He would categorize this $40 million Ponzi scheme allegation as a medium scale operation.

    Zask underscores that good Ponzi scheme operators prey on an investor’s psychology and advises investors keep a healthy skepticism especially when dealing with investments outside of the mainstream.

    “Ponzi schemes use a number of devices like not overpromising returns, keeping low profiles almost to maintain an air of exclusivity,” said Zask. “They are experts at gaining people’s trust.”

    According to the Attorney General Paula Dow’s press release, about $13.5 million of investors’ monies were used to pay for a New Jersey Devils sky box at the Prudential Center in Newark, personal automobile purchases, travel and luxury vacations and meals.

    “Instead of investing funds to produce high rates of return as promised, we allege that the defendants spent investors’ hard-earned money on personal luxuries and indulgences,” said Dow in the release.

    The lawsuit states that approximately $8 million of the $40 million was paid to certain investors, at times, and characterized as interest payments.

    Zask offers a number of red flags that investor’s should keep in mind in regards to Ponzi schemes. One is what he calls the too good to be true scenario. He adds that when investors see extraordinary returns without a lot of risk, they should be suspicious. He reminds investors that within Ponzi schemes, new money is essential to keeping the operation alive as it is what operators use to pay dividends or interest payments to old investors.

    On the other hand, many Ponzi scheme operators make themselves look like middle of the road investment firms to keep under the radar, says Zask. He says many won’t offer spectacular returns but rather offer steady returns. He says many take in money through referrals rather than advertisement or marketing, which helps them to uphold an air of secrecy.

    Zask says it is of utmost importance that individuals take the time to understand what the actual investment program is.

    “Google Finance and Yahoo Finance are good source for these things,” said Zask. “Securities that are registered are easy to identify because it is public record.”

    He does say that registration of securities is a potential red flag, but many vehicles are not required to be registered. As a bottom line Zask says that if a security is not registered there should be good reason for it.

    According to Zask Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also has a wealth of information regarding investment advisors.

    “You can look up people through the SEC and make sure they are registered or see if there are any outstanding actions against them,” added Zask.

  89. Shore Guy says:

    “a little arrogant to run as a VP”

    Perfect for a VP candidae on the campaign trail. BEsides, American’s LOVE governors as presidents . Something like 17 or so presidents were first governor. In just the 2oth century we had: Wilson, Coolidge, FDR, Reagan, Carter, Clinton, and the shrub. Being a governor or former governor as a VP candiate is a plus to the ticket.

  90. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    “The storyline being sold to the American public by the White House and the corporate mainstream media is that the economy is growing, jobs are being created, corporations are generating record profits, consumers are spending and all will be well in 2011. The 2% payroll tax cut, stolen from future generations to be spent in 2011, will jumpstart a sound economic recovery. Joseph Goebbels would be proud. The economy is growing due to unprecedented deficit spending by the government, fraudulent accounting by the Wall Street banks, the Federal Reserve buying $1.5 trillion of toxic mortgage “assets” from their Wall Street owners, various home buyer and auto tax credits and gimmick programs, and Fannie, Freddie, and the FHA accumulating taxpayer loses so morons can continue to purchase houses. ”

    ….and people in this country could care less.

  91. freedy says:

    Retail sales , strong, . Americans are just to lazy and stupid to see what happened.

  92. Thundaar says:

    Virginia Textbooks Said Rife With Errors
    Wednesday, 29 Dec 2010
    Textbooks used in some Virginia public schools are rife with errors including getting the number of states in the Confederacy wrong and grossly understating the number of casualties at the two battles of Bull Run, The Washington Post reports. The textbooks also get wrong the date for the United States’ entry into World War I and identify New Orleans as part of the United States when it was still a Spanish colony.

    Ronald Heinemann, a former Hampden-Sydney College professor, was one five historians called on by the state to examine the textbook, “Our Virginia: Past and Present,” and others published by Five Ponds Press. Heinemann told the paper, “I absolutely could not believe the number of mistakes – wrong dates and wrong facts everywhere. How in the world did these books get approved?” Heinemann called for the books’ immediate withdrawal from classrooms.

    According to the Post, textbooks by the Connecticut company state the Confederacy, whose capital was in Virginia, had 12 member states when it had 11 and dates the U.S. entry into WWI to 1916 instead of 1917. The book also put the casualty figure for the two battles of Bull Run at 6,000 when the figure was more than 22,000.

    The state undertook the examination after The Washington Post reported in October that the “Our Virginia: Past and Present” book claimed that thousands of black soldiers fought for the Confederacy, a claim advocated by Confederate heritage groups. Joy Masoff, the author of the book, told The Post she

    A quick quiz: Which of the following nine inaccurate statements appear in the Virginia textbooks?
    •Sir Walter Raleigh visited the British colony of Virginia.
    •Colonial Virginians often wore full suits of armor.
    •New Orleans was a U.S. harbor at the start of the 19th century.
    •All the Americans at the battle of the Alamo were killed.
    •Twelve states joined the Confederate States of America.
    •Thousands of black soldiers fought for the South in the Civil War.
    •About 6,000 men were killed, wounded, or went missing during the two Civil War battles of Bull Run (Manassas).
    •The 13th Amendment, ending slavery, was ratified in January 1865.
    •The U.S. entered the First World War in 1916.

    All nine. Historians who reviewed books by other publishers, also used in Virginia schools, found other errors.

  93. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [51] JJ

    Thanks, I think.

    Blogging from the waiting area of Crystal Toyota on Lovely Rte 22

    I really hate this road. Not only does it suck greatly, my most enduring memory will be when I saw a deer get offed by a Green Brook cop during the blizzard.

  94. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [71] shore guy

    “android keyboards suck”

    Can you elaborate? I got a droid incredible for Xmas, and haven’t activated yet. I am already a bit dubious (wife never does a good job vetting purchases), and want to know if this is best for me. I already dislike touchscreen keyboards as my Garmin keyboard gives me fits—my fingers aren’t that fat, yet it never inputs correctly. So if the keyboard is touchy and hard to use, I’d be interested in knowing that.


  95. grim says:

    Wow, huge drop in jobless claims. Comes in at 388k!

    Holiday sales estimates in the double digits.

    Recession over.

  96. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [97] thundaar,

    Not surprised, but I doubt the problem is limited to VA. I cannot view the story but I suspect that the author conveniently omits to state whether the books are used only in VA or in other states.

    Also, it is understandable that the school districts use these books. They place faith in the authors and have neither the resources nor intellectual bandwidth to determine whether the information is accurate. And in fact, some of it is obscure—I think I am smarter than most history teachers yet only about half of the references immediately struck me as bogus. The rest I would not typically know and would have to check, and even then some things (like how many blacks fought for the Confederacy) would be hard to verify (there were some but how does one check that?).

    In the end, the fault is the author’s, yet the story seems to imply stupidity or revisionism on the part of VA education authorities.

  97. New in FL says:

    I can’t help but think that Reggie Middleton is on the right track. In this article he doesn’t even mention recovery, except to say that most of those who do, are wrong.

  98. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    JB [100],

    The largest gain in claims in the week ending Dec. 18 was in New Jersey, with a rise of 5,235, with layoffs in construction, transportation and manufacturing industries.

  99. young buck says:

    Indiana May Allow Chapter 9
    Thursday, December 30, 2010

    CHICAGO — Indiana cities would be allowed to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection under a bill touted by Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels.

    Already, at least one municipality — the long-struggling town of Gary — is eyeing the measure. The sponsoring senator said he will meet Thursday with Gary’s mayor to discuss the bankruptcy bill.

    Indiana is one of 26 states that do not have on their books the specific state authorization required for a municipality to file for bankruptcy under federal code.

    Chapter 9 bankruptcies remain relatively rare. In Michigan, the town of Hamtramck is seeking permission to file — state law currently prohibits it — with officials saying it is the only way the town can escape costly labor contracts.

    Nationally, the struggles of local governments are gaining the spotlight, with more local officials mulling Chapter 9, which is the only unilateral way to void labor contracts.

    41. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    December 29, 2010 at 12:19 pm
    I also predict that:

    At least one mid-sized city will resort to Chp. 9

  100. Thundaar says:

    (100) Grim,

    Why the huge drop? Is it just retailer hiring eschewing the numbers, fun with numbers from the White House or just simply benefits running and those people are not being counted as unemployed?
    Or is there real job growth happening?

  101. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    We beat out Michigan and Florida for largest increase in claims. The largest descrease was California; former sheet rockers now working the fields. Buy ag/related industries.

  102. JJ says:

    Back in College I used to work with the kid voted the funniest at Roosevelt High School, Eddie Murphy was second funniest. Anyhow his Mom told him that being a comedian was a waste of time and to keep studying, Fool went to a good four year school graduated during the early 1980s recession and then went to graduate school on loans and planned to get a PhD, as he was unable to get a job. Anyhow, he was stuck being a microfilmer at Mastercard. Back then you actually got the original receipts back from credit card charges, I recall getting beer soaked South Street Thursday night credit card receipts in the mail. Anyhow this microfilmer was the ultimate angry black man, mad at the world, mad at his Mom and the most Mad at Eddie Murphy who he claimed took his fortune as was the funniest. I loved bringing up Eddie Murphy or calling him Dr. Microfilmer and watching him explode. In retrospect I was most likely playing with fire as he could have shot us all in a rage. But still was fun. He actually chased me around office one day. I was a full time employee there during summer and they had a pizza party for full time employees, not temps or part timers. Anyhow he was pissed he got no pizza so when he took a break I photocopied a slice of pizza and put it on a paper plate and set it at his work station so I could rub it in he got no pizza, then he goes balistic and chases me around office until he is tackled. Some funny guy.

    chicagofinance says:
    December 29, 2010 at 5:58 pm

    Here is the biography of JJ, except the lead is Eddie Murphy….
    the scene with JJ’s dad…

  103. Thundaar says:

    2010 Racks Up Most Bank Failures Since 1992.
    More banks failed in 2010 than any year since the savings-and-loan crisis ended in 1992, but regulators said Wednesday they believe failures have passed their peak.

    So far this year, the 157 banks that failed had total assets of $92.1 billion compared to 140 bank failures with total assets of $169.7 billion in 2009.

    “We believe that the number of failures peaked this year in 2010,” said Jim Wigand, acting director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s division of resolutions and receiverships.

    Wigand said the banks that failed in 2010 were smaller, with lower asset values than the banks that failed in 2008 and 2009. “In terms of failed bank assets that number peaked in 2008,” he said.

    As of Sept. 30, when the FDIC released its last quarterly report, there were 860 banks on the agency’s “problem list.”

    Since 2008, 322 banks have failed with combined assets of $633.7 billion and total cost to the FDIC of $79.5 billion.

    The FDIC insures deposits for banks that pay premiums to the agency and uses that money to cover the cost of dealing with troubled banks when they fail. The FDIC asked banks to pay three years of premiums at the beginning of 2010 to help pay for the expected onslaught of failures this year.

    The biggest bank to fail this year was Westernbank Puerto Rico. About half of the banks that failed in 2010 were headquartered in four states: California, Florida, Illinois or Georgia.

    American Bankers Association Economist James Chessen said the banks that failed in 2010 were smaller and more reflective of the local communities they served than the banks that failed earlier in the crisis.

    “There has been a shift from institutions that failed because they took too great a risk on housing to institutions that fail because they serve local communities that have suffered greatly from the recession,” Chessen said.

    The lingering effects of the financial crisis and the increasing capital requirements from regulators could mean more mergers for small banks next year, said Chris Cole, senior vice president of the Independent Community Bankers of America.

    “I think you’ll see an increase in mergers between community banks because there’s still a problem with capital out there,” Cole said

  104. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “At least one mid-sized city will resort to Chp. 9”


    You’re being much too conservative.

  105. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “We believe that the number of failures peaked this year in 2010,” said Jim Wigand, acting director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s division of resolutions and receiverships.

    Did this guy say this with a straight face? There are thousands of banks which are currently inslovent. However, we can olny kick out 4-5 (avg) a week. In addition to this, their assets have proven to be overvalued by 30-50%. We have a long way to go.

  106. JJ says:

    Best Jet moment this season is Viking fan who paid $990 a pair to sit in my seats in the rain and fool week before Pats blow out who paid me $550 a pair for my Bills game. Being a Jet fan is knowing when to sell while optimism is high and before the eventually Jets collaspe. Being a Giants fan is so much easier.

    NJGator says:
    December 29, 2010 at 4:50 pm


    You are forgetting about the dollar value of being the envy of your peers.

    A home is not an investment. Nor are Jets tickets. You know that.

  107. Mr Wantanapolous says:


    It’s certainly improving but extended benfeits were only available in 36 states. That’s approx 30% that dropped off.

  108. Mr Wantanapolous says:


    The following states had their TUR trigger expire November 6, and as a result, triggered off of EB with the week ending November 13: Alabama, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. Absent additional state or Federal enactments, these states will have their EB payable period conclude December 4, 2010.

  109. Fabius Maximus says:

    One of my predictions starts warming up. I can’t see them being a full wireless carrier, I see them carving out a spot like Video conferenceing or data streaming to a tablet.

    Google: Your new phone carrier?

  110. Shore Guy says:


    There are many things I like about the Android OS. BUT, I am a real fan of physical keyboards and the touch-screen keyboard is exasperating and not good for power users. My device also has a physical keyboard (slide-out) but the keyboard is a bit wide for my tastes and the keys are flat, which leads to typos.

    Feel free to contact me via e-mail and I can provide more details.

  111. JJ says:

    Last [Tick] $36.131[-]
    Change Up$0.1110
    % Change Up0.31%
    Bid $36.13

    Not bad for a company that was BK one year ago

  112. Juice Box says:

    Only been back in town for a few hours after nearly two weeks off and I want
    to leave again already. Office is dead today, no meetings and no Holiday Cheer left. Might as well curl up under my desk and get some ZZZsss ala George Costanza, or perhaps spend the afternoon at the bar……

  113. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Juice [117],

    Two weeks off in a row? Where do you work, are you hiring?

  114. JJ says:

    What bar? Hey who is working tommorrow? Wall street is open so I will be at work on Firday.

    Juice Box says:
    December 30, 2010 at 9:47 am

    Only been back in town for a few hours after nearly two weeks off and I want
    to leave again already. Office is dead today, no meetings and no Holiday Cheer left. Might as well curl up under my desk and get some ZZZsss ala George Costanza, or perhaps spend the afternoon at the bar……

  115. Kevin S says:

    Real Estate- National
    I think we will see prices fall about 10% over the next year, with the caveat that there is no further government intervention in the market. Markets are somewhat predictable, but politicians… not so much. Then again, with Republicans controlling the house, it seems unlikely that any major further stimulus could get passed.

    RE – NJ
    I would say in line with my national average declines, with my personal feeling NJ is going to feel the hurt more. Its kind of tough to say, I know what I see in northern NJ and particularly the towns surrounding manhattan, and also a bit around central nj, but I have no idea what the south and west of the state which are much more rural are like. Higher mortgage rates, tougher financing, particularly for jumbo loans, killer taxes, and the general trend that the suburbs and exurbs have a higher “beta” than the cities are going to bring prices down.

    I am not a commodities expert, and the natural volatility in commodities makes predicting very difficult, but I am going to say that gold and silver will fall, oil and natural gas will be about flat. Gold/Silver appear to be in bubbles, while oil/gas seem to be pricing in some fears of a demand squeeze. An economic recovery will put some upward pressure on oil/gas, but I think recovery will also take out some of the fear priced into oil right now. Just my $.02, my confidence in these predictions (as opposed to RE) is low.

    I think US and International equities will be up on the year, in the 5-10% range, based on a global recovery.

    Mortgage Financing
    Interest rates are going up! How high… that is tough to say, but they are definitely on their way up. I don’t know how to model interest rates, but I think we will be back to 6% being the typical rate.

    Unemployment – National.
    I think we will see small decreases in the unemployment rate, but a percent at most.

  116. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Hey who is working tommorrow?”

    I am.

  117. 250k says:

    grim [100]
    “… huge drop in jobless claims. Comes in at 388k!”

    Let us not forget that even Cruella de Vil wouldn’t fire her henchmen between Thanksgiving and the New Year.

    Most US Corporations (especially in the retail cyclicals or related categories) have their cost-cutting measures in place before peak season ramp-ups hit around September. Operations execs focus on making revenue numbers for the peak.

    It would be too Scroogy to have mass layoffs in time for the holidays. Better to get your product out the door and then when its time to ramp-down, bring on a new round of layoffs, furloughs and facility shutdowns.

    Especially in NJ, I expect Jan through April 2011 to bring some fresh new meat to the unemployment lines. The good news is, by year’s end, there may so few manufacturing and distribution jobs left in the state of NJ, there won’t be any of those positions left to eliminate.

  118. grim says:

    It would be too Scroogy to have mass layoffs in time for the holidays.

    Mid-December cuts were always status-quo where I’ve been.

  119. chicagofinance says:

    WTF are you taking about? This post is your dumbest all time….

    116.JJ says:
    December 30, 2010 at 9:45 am
    Last [Tick] $36.131[-]
    Change Up$0.1110
    % Change Up0.31%
    Bid $36.13

    Not bad for a company that was BK one year ago

  120. 250k says:

    Sanitation Department’s slow snow cleanup was a budget protest

    New York’s Strongest used a variety of tactics to drag out the plowing process — and pad overtime checks — which included keeping plows slightly higher than the roadways and skipping over streets along their routes, the sources said.

    The snow-removal snitches said they were told to keep their plows off most streets and to wait for orders before attacking the accumulating piles of snow.

    Read more:
    Read more:

  121. 250k says:

    Sanitation Department’s slow snow cleanup was a budget protest.

    “New York’s Strongest used a variety of tactics to drag out the plowing process — and pad overtime checks — which included keeping plows slightly higher than the roadways and skipping over streets along their routes, the sources said.

    The snow-removal snitches said they were told to keep their plows off most streets and to wait for orders before attacking the accumulating piles of snow.”

    Read more:

  122. Shore Guy says:

    Of course he numbers are going down. As the ranks of 99ers grows, they will fall off the radar screen.

  123. Mikeinwaiting says:

    BC, anyone 113: I looked over link, I had read on this site before that these triggers had to due with the rate under certain amount & such. Maybe I remember incorrectly, wondering why they triggered off.

    Good time at Mohawk House last night with Wag & Kettle. Great place, do try out if your in that neck of the woods.

  124. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore radar will pick them up on food stamps, wait a couple of months (it takes that long) & check out the numbers there.

  125. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Whats up in Europe today all red & our market flat to red on good news(retail, unemployment)?

  126. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [109] BC wanta

    By mid-sized, I mean a 2nd tier city, like a Birmingham or Boise. I think that there will be a number of small cities that go Chp. 9. A lot will depend on market reaction ot the first one or two. If it doesn’t look to the markets as the End of the World, or if the states look like they will take over the defaulting munis, then I think that the floodgates will open.

  127. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [125] 250K

    I remember that Gov. Dukakis lost his bid for reelection in 1978 in part because of his response to the Blizzard of 78 that crippled eastern New England. The preparation was poor, the reaction was too overbearing (ordering all drivers off the roads for a week, even when some areas were cleared quickly), and resources were misallocated.

    This was not a particularly major failure but the voters remembered. If NYCers don’t remember, and vote accordingly, then they deserve what they get.

  128. Juice Box says:

    re #118 – Want – I know a few Finance MDs who are still off and won’t be back till the 3rd. I had a few “extra” days off since my travel plans were changed by the Snowmageddon. Thankfully I fly elite/priority so I was re-booked automatically and don’t not have to wait on the phone for two days to get a customer rep to book a flight home next week or later. There are lots of poor bastards (non-elite) that are still sleeping in terminals all across this country. The worst thing about flying home was the mad rush to board when they called the elite customers first. It was quite comical since everyone was elite and tried to board at the same time.

  129. Juice Box says:

    Interesting read on wiring money out of the country.

    The government wants reports on all electronic bank-to-bank transfers, regardless of whether the transfer is $1 or $1,000,000. For money transmitters, reports would be filed for transfers at or above $1,000. FinCEN estimates it will receive 750 million reports every year, and the agency wants to keep the data for ten years. Once the reports are filed with FinCEN, other federal law enforcement agencies — the FBI, IRS, ICE, and the DEA — would all have access to the data.

  130. JJ says:

    I bought at IPO at 33 a few weeks ago and plan to sell soon. I will take 10% return over two months. Not a lot, but not bad. Morgan Stanley has a $50 price target on stock. I know you commie rice burning Jap car driving folks can’t stomach the fact that GM is a great company.

    chicagofinance says:
    December 30, 2010 at 11:03 am

    WTF are you taking about? This post is your dumbest all time….

    116.JJ says:
    December 30, 2010 at 9:45 am
    Last [Tick] $36.131[-]
    Change Up$0.1110
    % Change Up0.31%
    Bid $36.13

    Not bad for a company that was BK one year ago

  131. JJ says:

    I recall when I was little a snowfall that was taller than the mayor of New York.

    Of course Abe Beame was Mayor at the time.

  132. JJ says:

    The rate for a 30-year loan has climbed for six of the past seven weeks amid speculation that President Barack Obama’s agreement to a two-year tax cut extension will boost economic growth and inflation. The rise pushed the monthly cost of a $300,000 loan to $1,585 from $1,462.

  133. Juice Box says:

    JJ – US Treasury had 912 million common shares about 60% of GM and during the IPO the sold so far 358 million. The rest are on a 6 month lock up, so if you are gonna sell be sure to beat Timmay at his own game and sell before May or if the price reaches anywhere near $51 which would be the break even price for the Government on their $50 Billion dollar investment.

  134. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    “By mid-sized, I mean a 2nd tier city, like a Birmingham or Boise.”

    Watch California

  135. Al Mossberg says:



    ” I am going to say that gold and silver will fall,”

    If your prediction is correct I will give you a kidney. Actually Ill give you both kidneys. Hope you dont put your money where your mouth is.

  136. Outofstater says:

    #125 That is disgusting. Nom – is it possible for the families of the people in NYC who died because they had to wait hours for ambulances to sue the city or the individual sanitation workers who deliberately snarled the snow removal effort?

  137. Juice Box says:

    Some predictions for 2011


    Chrysler will launch its IPO lukewarm results
    Dunkin Donuts will have a blow out IPO
    Wall St will lay-off 50k workers
    DOW trades sideways all year

    Real Estate

    Case Chiller national additional 9% decline by year end
    Case Chiller New Joisey additional 10% decline by year end
    Forclosuremageddon (robosiger, note issues et ALL) continues to drag out in the courts with conflicting rulings

    U-3 Unemployment 8.5% year end
    Fed Funds Rate unchanged


    Oil – $130 BBl and then drop back to $80 by year end
    Gold hits $1800 before a minor correction
    Wheat up 30%
    Corn up 30%


    Snookie does an xxx movie
    Gingrich is the presumed GOP candidate
    Saints win the Superbowl
    Deathpool #1 Nancy Reagan
    Solar activity burns out a power grid somewhere
    Northern Lights can be seen from New Jersey
    Massive wildcat strikes from Government Union Workers

  138. Juice Box says:

    re #141- yup disgusting – news story about a baby born in Apt building in NYC that died after wating 9 hours for paramedics who could not get there.
    Just wait until there are wildcat strikes, the government workers won’t go down without a fight. They are prepping for it now, starting with the police and sanitation. Big piles of festering garbage and nobody shows up when you call in a perp to the cops.

    Make sure you start working out in 2011 as a new years resolution, toughen up a bit physically, you may need to be able to run a few blocks in an emergency and it will be good for your blood pressure and spirits in the long run.

  139. I’ll have my kidney roasted, with a side of sauce moutarde verte.

    JACKSON, Miss. – For 16 years, sisters Jamie and Gladys Scott have shared a life behind bars for their part in an $11 armed robbery. To share freedom, they must also share a kidney.

    Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour suspended the sisters’ life sentences on Wednesday, but 36-year-old Gladys Scott’s release is contingent on her giving a kidney to Jamie, her 38-year-old sister, who requires daily dialysis.

    The sisters were convicted in 1994 of leading two men into an ambush in central Mississippi the year before. Three teenagers hit each man in the head with a shotgun and took their wallets — making off with only $11, court records said.

    Jamie and Gladys Scott were each convicted of two counts of armed robbery and sentenced to two life sentences.

    “I think it’s a victory,” said the sisters’ attorney, Chokwe Lumumba. “I talked to Gladys and she’s elated about the news. I’m sure Jamie is, too.”

    Civil rights advocates have for years called for their release, saying the sentences were excessive. Those demands gained traction when Barbour asked the Mississippi Parole Board to take another look at the case.

    The Scott sisters are eligible for parole in 2014, but Barbour said prison officials no longer think they are a threat to society and Jamie’s medical condition is costing the state a lot of money.

    Lumumba said he has no problem with the governor requiring Gladys to offer up her organ because “Gladys actually volunteered that as part of her petition.”

    Lumumba said it’s not clear what caused the kidney failure, but it’s likely a combination of different illnesses over the years.

    Barbour spokesman Dan Turner told The Associated Press that Jamie Scott was released because she needs the transplant. He said Gladys Scott will be released if she agrees to donate her kidney because of the significant risk and recovery time.

    “She wanted to do it,” Turner said. “That wasn’t something we introduced.”

  140. JJ says:

    mediatakeout has pictures of Rex Ryan’s wife feet being sucked by large black man. Plus a few “money shots”

    TMI TMI, I wanted a superbowl and got a superhole

  141. Al Mossberg says:


    I look forward to the strikes. We will privatize every service and then chop that part of the budget out of our property taxes. Then the trend will continue until we have eliminated every aspect of public employement and their wretched stench upon our state.

  142. Essex says:

    146. Oh yeah cause when you privatize something well sir then it’s “free” right?! Dum Dah Dum Dah Dum

  143. Al Mossberg says:


    Not free but if some fat ass, cake eating bum doesnt do his job in the private sector they get sh_t canned.

  144. Yikes says:

    Essex says:
    December 28, 2010 at 9:54 am

    GOP plan: Push states to declare bankruptcy and smash unions. Republicans are plotting to change the bankruptcy laws to allow states to file bankruptcy. Once a state defaults on its obligations and files bankruptcy, the state could use the United Airlines bankruptcy precedent (Judge Eugene Wedoff approved the airline management’s request to terminate four pension plans—for pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other ground service workers. The $9.8 billion pension plan default was the largest in U.S. history) to terminate the state employee pension plans altogether.

    Chances this happens? Anyone?

  145. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    NAK- Put/Call ratio 0.14

    Market’s Prediction for 2011- It’s going higher.

  146. JJ says:

    Still going with Kodak being bought by google or cisco as my cool prediction.

  147. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Nothing new for 2011; ceilings will be raised, floors lowered.

    “111th Congress Added More Debt Than First 100 Congresses Combined: $10,429 Per Person in U.S”

  148. hughesrep says:


    What happens if that private contractor takes his truck and goes home?

    “But, after the first shift of clearing roads Sunday evening, that contractor only had one driver and one plow on the roads in Brick, said Scott Pezzaras, the township administrator.

    “I’m assuming they got a better deal, elsewhere,” Pezzaras said.

    Don’t you live in Bricktucky? How are the roads?

  149. Al Mossberg says:


    My street was cleared by hand and a favor from a friend with a plow. Down here in Bricktucky we dont need the stinkin gov. All we need is our money back. No one likes to pay for services not rendered. Dont worry about our streets son worry about your tit sucking job because next Nov we are privatizing the dept of public works. Bank on it.

  150. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    while the excessive government needs to be pruned. The private sector is no panacea. Without the rule if law you end up trading one thug for another. See Argentina as an example.

    Once the social contract and rule of law are abondoned it is a VERY long walk home and there is noquick or easy solution. It’s sort of like an obese person. The only solution is exercise. It will painful and unpleasant at first and no results will be seen right away but it is still the only solution

  151. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:


    I was in that puppy for a while. Traded sideways for what seemed like forever so I got out. What made it pop? I thought they were being held up in court by the environmentalists.

  152. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    we as individuals are perfectly capable of coexisting peacefully and constructivly without bigbrother supervising every aspect of our lives and telling us how we should distribute our money.

    On top of that demanding existing debts be honored as structured is essentially forcing those who had no say and may not have even been born bear the burden of fullfilling impossible promises made by short sighted politicians and those who failed to run some basic math

  153. JJ says:

    My street was blacktop all during snow. Looked like summer out there.

  154. Shore Guy says:


    I have been surprised that HP has not scooped-up Kodak. They seem a good fit, at least after HP spins-off the film business.

  155. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    HE [157],

    Don’t know fundamentally. However, it broke out on big volume.

  156. Neanderthal Economist says:

    CS NY down 5%
    30 yr mortg rates end year between 5-7%
    Stocks and commodities up 15%
    CSCO back up to 30
    Gold up 10%. Etf gld up 11% just to make gold bugs upset

    jersey shore becomes a broadway

  157. JJ says:

    What about those not yet born or currently little kids who inherit 30 year muni bonds you are punishing some unborn while rewarding other unborn by the default of existing debt.

    Schrodinger’s Cat says:
    December 30, 2010 at 4:04 pm


    we as individuals are perfectly capable of coexisting peacefully and constructivly without bigbrother supervising every aspect of our lives and telling us how we should distribute our money.

    On top of that demanding existing debts be honored as structured is essentially forcing those who had no say and may not have even been born bear the burden of fullfilling impossible promises made by short sighted politicians and those who failed to run some basic math

  158. Juice Box says:

    Ali G is on the money. Local gov jobs are now getting creamed. See the chart below BLS stats for local gov jobs.

    * Nationally Government payrolls expanded by 1,759,000 since the year 2000.
    * Local (towns and cities) governments expanded payrolls by 1,403,00
    * 80% of government payroll growth was in local government
    * Reduce local government payrolls to year 2000 levels and the towns save 60 billion a year.

  159. Juice Box says:

    re: – #163- JJ – largest holders of Muni Debt indeed households, to the tune of about 900 billion. The question is whether the middle class gets taken out as well since they are the second largest holder with 46o Billion in Mutual Funds.

    Somehow I don’t think the “Households” that hold all that Muni Debt are middle class or below. It is the 1% crowd looking for tax deferred. I am sure they will be able to scrape by, with a haircut. If the middle class gets completely blown out of retirement savings then hey that is just the way capitalism works right?

  160. juice (165)-

    Whatever the gubmint can do to destroy the middle class, that is what they will do.

    If it is themselves, the rich, the poor whose votes can be bought or banksters, the gubmint will bail them out.


  161. We are completely doomed. If 1/1/2012 comes without civil war in the US or a worldwide war having started, it will be a miracle.

    I’m working out every day and stockpiling more of everything that won’t rot. It’s gonna hit fast and hard, and my only interest now is trying to get my kids through what’s about to come.

  162. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    Clot = Mayan priest

  163. JJ says:

    Lots of middle class and retired people have muni bonds, places like David Learner push them hard. Remember they pay more than treasuries and are tax free.

    Also there are AMT (Private Activity) muni bonds that pay tax free interest only if you are not in AMT. These bonds are only for the middle class between 75K and 175K.

    Finally, taxable Build America Bonds, I see some of these paying 7% with 1/3 of interest guaranteed by US govt. These make most since to people under 75K.

    Also bond people diversify, munis, treasuries, investment grade, junk, MBS, CLOs, CDs, so anyone who owns a general bond fund or tried to diversify a bit owns munis.

    Also highly paid civil service workers guranteed pensions and free medical for life is causing muni bond stress. If I was to receive a 20% haircut I would fully expect the pensions to be cut 20% and retirees pay 20% of their medical. Otherwise why would I agree to a haircut as I knew I would be only gettting a second haircut down the road.
    Juice Box says:
    December 30, 2010 at 4:49 pm

    re: – #163- JJ – largest holders of Muni Debt indeed households, to the tune of about 900 billion. The question is whether the middle class gets taken out as well since they are the second largest holder with 46o Billion in Mutual Funds.

    Somehow I don’t think the “Households” that hold all that Muni Debt are middle class or below. It is the 1% crowd looking for tax deferred. I am sure they will be able to scrape by, with a haircut. If the middle class gets completely blown out of retirement savings then hey that is just the way capitalism works right?

  164. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: Holy shite! Sterger’s dad was 14 when she was born….

    Sterger’s dad: ‘I better not meet Favre in dark alley’

    Jenn Sterger’s father had some choice words for Brett Favre in an interview published today.

    “I better not meet that guy walking down a dark alley,” Leo Sterger told, expressing anger that the NFL chose not to suspend the Vikings quarterback for reportedly propositioning Sterger while both were with the Jets in 2008.

    The NFL announced Wednesday a $50,000 fine against Favre for failing to cooperate with the league’s investigation of the matter.

    “It’s a complete joke the penalty they gave him,” Leo Sterger said. “Their decision is a complete travesty to women and they are just treating him this way because he is the NFL’s golden boy. As a father I am absolutely furious.”

    The married, 41-year-old father of two was rocked by the scandal in October, when posted voice messages of him apparently propositioning Sterger. He also allegedly included a text-message picture of his g-nitals.

    The NFL said the evidence did not clearly show that Favre sent the illicit pictures, though Sterger’s attorney disputed that claim on Wednesday, saying the evidence left no doubt.

    Sterger’s dad said his daughter is doing fine despite the constant media coverage of the story.

    “Jenn is doing well, all things considered and if anything she feels vindicated after the NFL’s decision. She’s a strong woman and she is going to be okay, personally.”

    But he added that he hopes, “Favre never plays football again now.”

    Sterger, 27, worked for the Jets as a media personality at the time of the incident, and went on to host “The Daily Line” on cable channel Versus. The show was canceled after six months in early November due to low ratings.

    Favre is heading into what he has said will be his final game this Sunday at Detroit. The future Hall of Famer has still not been cleared to play by doctors after suffering a concussion two weeks ago.

  165. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    “Ali G is on the money. Local gov jobs are now getting creamed. See the chart below BLS stats for local gov jobs.”

    Notice how slow the response was to this blizzard? Get used to it; and its not because of less workers, its because of less work by the workers who remain.

  166. chi (170)-

    Yeah. Favre will snap his neck, and his daughter will have to live with the memory of both looking at Favre’s pichadile on her cellphone screen and her dad, laid out in a casket.

    “Sterger’s dad: ‘I better not meet Favre in dark alley’”

  167. Nation of Wussies HEHEHE says:

    Jets fan seek high court review of ‘Spygate’ suit,ny

    Don’t you people have some feet to salivate over or something, jeez?

  168. HE (171)-

    This storm would’ve been the perfect time to go to Attica, Sing Sing, Riker’s, etc. and form hundreds of chain gangs to move snow 24/7 until it’s gone.

    I would welcome driving along 78 this summer and seeing 15-20 guys chained to each other, supervised by 3-4 officers with sawed-offs and a couple of hungry Rottweilers.

  169. Whatever happened to sentencing people to time at hard labor?

  170. Juice Box says:

    Farve’s older daughter is 21, why not just sext her a few pics as payback? For guys like Farve it only sinks in when it hit’s home.

  171. Al Mossberg says:


    The rule of law is already broken. Order is maintained by the habits and good intentions of the majority of decent people in this country. The law is now in the hands of the judicial branch who have morphed into our legislative branch.

    If privatization is defined as corporations then I agree that Argentina is our outcome. What we need is individual liberty not dependence on gov.

    The situation is way too far gone. What would shock most people 2 years ago is now the norm.

  172. Al Mossberg says:

    “My street was blacktop all during snow. Looked like summer out there.”

    lmao. I bet you were sipping tropical drinks as the plows grinded by while you coaxed your clients into buying US treasuries and Netflix.

  173. Al Mossberg says:



    “I’m working out every day and stockpiling more of everything that won’t rot. It’s gonna hit fast and hard, and my only interest now is trying to get my kids through what’s about to come.”

    That kind of doom talk is music to my ears. Im jonesing for more. Im also jonesing for some bullion.

  174. al (178)-

    When you think of jj as one of our Best & Brightest, it’s like mental Ipecac.

  175. Al Mossberg says:

    “As for equities, Faber increasingly sees a Zimbabwe outcome: “If you print money, the currency goes down and the S&P 500 goes up. By the end of 2011, people will look at 2012 and think 2012 could be a very bad year because the policies applied are not sustainable and create a lot of instability. Investors may look at 2012 and 2013 with horror.” Not Wall Street thought. By the end of 2011, bankers will most likely be looking at the second consecutive record bonuses year, and by then will have enough gold safely stashed away in non-extradition countries to where the host organism may finally be allowed to die in peace.”

    Another Marc Faber classic. The doom band plays on!

    Happy New Year to everyone except the Communist entity of Montclair. you can rot in hell if you arent bulldozed into the Hudson river first.

  176. Neanderthal Economist says:

    171 he he. In most cases the plows were purposely running slow as a work slowage strike to combat further budget cuts. Eventually they will be made to do more with less like private sector.

  177. Neanderthal Economist says:

    You guys are going way too far now with working out and stock piling food. First of all working out is for girls. You are either tough or not. A tough person who doesn’t work out will destroy a weak person who goes to gym every day of their lives. Also stock piling food is preparation for camping trip not economic collapse. Besides, way before civilians start fist fighting for a bag of beans, the govt will just claim military law and make everyone stay home.

  178. Howard Davidowitz goes off again. And Mr. Neanderthal thinks WE’RE too negative?

    My favorite quote:

    “I am not surprised by the strength of retail sales, because i knew that 30% of consumers are responsible for retail sales, and these 30% did much better because of the performance of capital markets. I don’t think it is indicative of anything going forward. I don’t think the economy is going to get any better. If you look at our fiscal and monetary policy, we went two trillion in the hole last year. Two trillion… to produce this… and unemployment went up to 9.8%! We’ve spent two trillion, we’re printing money, we’re going bananas. Our balance sheet, we’ve got $2.6 trillion on there, and what’s on there? Government securities, and MBS. If interest rates go up a point, Bernanke’s bankrupt. Everything he’s bought is underwater. All the MBS are underwater, the whole country is underwater.”

  179. Torquemada says:

    #62 JJ … 5% tax free? Wha? How? Please explain. Munis? Bwa ha ha (and they aren’t returning that anymore anyway…)

  180. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    No predictions here, just some charts:

    % Drop From Peak (As of Dec 2010)
    Case-Shiller Tiered Price Index, Unadjusted

    All numbers are Nominal (Not inflation adjusted)

  181. cobbler says:


    Gold $1,150/toz
    WTI $85/bbl
    Unemployment 10%
    USD = 80 JPY
    Case-Shiller minus 8% YOY

  182. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    One interesting trend that appears in the CS data is that the divergence between the 3 tiers shows a very nice cyclical trend. The trend suggests that we aren’t at bottom until the 3 tiers converge and the Tier Delta approaches 0. The attached chart shows a sample chart for the Case-Shiller NY Metro Area

  183. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    A tough person who doesn’t work out will destroy a weak person who goes to gym every day of their lives

    I see you havent been involved in many physical conflicts, whether for sport or otherwise. I dont care how TOUGH you may be. if your sporting a keg as opposed to a sixpack and cant go up a flight of stairs without getting winded then your odds of easily overcoming someone who is at a similar skill level but in much better condition lasts all of about 30 seconds. After that you are too winded to maintain any intensity.

    Besides that, your statement is so generalized as to be useless. Are we talking about a fist fight, knife fight, gun fight, mugging etc? They all make a difference. Are of of the people involved trained in self defense and how to handle such situations? There are 1001 variable that affect the outcome.

    If nothing else getting in the the gym is one of the best preparedness steps you can take. It will improve your health and reduce your stress levels which are of the bigger killers in any potential social disorder scenarios. Physical fitness will be useful to you every minute of the day while a stock pile of food or ammo may or may not be useful.

  184. Al Mossberg says:


    Say hello to your new overlords.

  185. cobbler says:

    the cat [190]
    The obvious issue with this logic is that the launch date of the indices had been set arbitrarily (at some point in time pre-dating the beginning of your chart X-axis , so the delta is defined only directionally, not as an absolute value). As I believe that long- term the low tier is going to zero (or, to be exact, to the NPV of the difference in of what the govt could afford to pay for Section 8 subsidy, if anything, and the property tax due for this property – which may be positive, negative number, or zero), the resulting delta can’t be zero – the portion of the high tier desirable for the top 1-5% will be quite valuable.

  186. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Here is a chart of the Case Shiller Tiered Index overlay-ed with the Tier Delta for the NY Metro Area.

  187. al (192)-

    I think I have enough firepower in my basement to wipe out 6-7 lazy Belgian UN peacekeepers.

  188. On second thought, if I pointed a wristrocket at a Humvee full of Belgians, they’d probably surrender.

  189. Schrodinger's Cat says:

    Cobbler 193

    I am not suggesting that the observed relation is rigorous, or that it represents an absolute measure. In fact i think the interesting aspect of it is the RELATIVE nature of it. Put in real world terms, the Tier Delta seems to show, in general terms, dislocations in the tiers relative to one another at a given instant (a measurement of instantaneous dislocation).
    You can have dislocations for a number of reasons, but this could still be a useful tool in an overall tool box of methods.

    As I believe that long- term the low tier is going to zero

    This is indeed possible in some areas (i.e. detriot).

    Here is a chart for Atlanta

    Do I think the Atlanta area is a screaming buy? Hell NO! There is clearly still substantial instability in the system. The Tier Delta could be used here as an indicator of the regional instability to to its failure to coalesce once it approached 0.

    It MAY be a useful tool.

  190. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    I will get concerned when they start shipping in UN MRAPs

  191. Schrodinger's Cat says:


    Ever consider an “Edit function” ?

  192. cobbler says:

    The Cat [197]
    An interesting chart for Atlanta: while in NJ (at least within the chart timeframe) there never had been a negative delta for low-high tiers, in Atlanta it’s about half of the time including quite a dip recently. Looks like artificial supports under the low-tier housing in GA are much weaker than here, I don’t believe there is any difference in the intrinsic value. Detroit is certainly an excellent example of zeroing out the low tier, but I think Camden and large parts of other NJ cities are on the way there.

  193. Essex says:

    Fitness is key. Key to enjoying life. Key to longevity. Key to being a good fighter.

Comments are closed.