Otteau: July Market Update

From Jeff Otteau’s Monthly MarketNEWS Update:

July Purchase Contracts Rise 24%

The New Jersey housing market turned in another strong month in July with home purchase contracts increasing 24% compared to the same month last year. YTD purchase activity through July 31st has increased 23% over last year with no signs of a slowdown. The July increase is the tenth consecutive month that sales have increased since a modest 1% decline in September 2011.

Complimenting the rise in purchase activity is a 17% decline in Unsold Inventory this year. There are presently 59,700 homes being offered for sale in New Jersey which is the lowest inventory since 2005.

Based upon the current pace of sales, today’s unsold inventory equates to 8.9 months of sales compared to 13.3 months 1 year ago. Hudson County has the lowest unsold inventory in the state with 6.2 months followed by Bergen County with 6.4 months. At the other end of the spectrum are Atlantic and Cumberland Counties with 18.0 and 24.8 months, respectively.

The combined effects of the 17% decline in unsold inventory with a 23% increase in purchase demand are rebalancing the dynamics of the housing market toward price stability in 2012. Early signs of this improvement can be seen in median home prices which declined by 0.5% in Q2 2012, the slowest pace since Q1 2011. Median prices actually increased in 9 of the state’s 21 counties during Q2 suggesting that statewide prices will increase in the second half of the year.

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68 Responses to Otteau: July Market Update

  1. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Real estate agent: ‘The flipping market is back’

    The stone house has small rooms, an overgrown yard and a roof that begs to be replaced. But investor Frank Oliveri and his business partner, Al Best, see the potential in its Wyckoff, N.J., address and the $125,000 in renovations they’ve got planned.

    The house fell into foreclosure after selling for $522,000 in 2006, when the housing market was at its frothiest. Oliveri, of Rochelle Park, N.J., and his brother, Mel, bought it recently for $315,000, even less than its 1999 sale price of $339,000.

    After extensive renovations — including the addition of a master suite — the investors hope to sell the property for more than $600,000.

    If this deal works out as planned, it will illustrate the more favorable numbers that are slowly drawing investors back into the real estate market. After the housing crash left many with losses, some investors are now seeing the attraction of lower home values and interest rates, as well as higher rents. Home sales are running ahead of last year’s very slow pace, and about one in five buyers is an investor, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    “The flipping market is back,” said Antoinette Gangi, a Re/Max agent in Woodcliff Lake, N.J.

    That’s certainly the case with Best and the Oliveris. They look mostly for short sales or bank-owned properties, because they have to buy the properties cheaply enough that they can still turn a profit after spending on improvements. That’s easier to do in the current market.

    “Prices have come down, and investors have a lot more room to wiggle with,” said Frank Oliveri. His brother is head of Property Hub Realtors in Paramus, N.J.

    Builder Lou Chiellini of Park Ridge, N.J., who buys and renovates or replaces homes, also said that he’s been able to pay less for properties these days. At the same time, he’s accepting lower profit margins than in the past, he said. “If you’re not greedy, you can still make money,” Chiellini said.

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    “The flipping market is back,” said Antoinette Gangi, a Re/Max agent in Woodcliff Lake, N.J.

    Hey Antoinette, there’s about 6 f*cking houses for sale in total and 1 out 5 is an “investor” sale. Where’s the inventory? No inventory, underwater owners, no trade-up activiy, still no jobs and ultra tough lending criteria. These sellers can still go f*ck themselves. Remember when I said I’m gonna lowball these f*cks? I lowballed one and semi-lowballed another in the last 4 weeks. I think I’m the mood for another one this weekend.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    See this one below? Words can’t describe the level of barf I had to hold back while walking through this one. I don’t know if my sight or my sense of smell was more assaulted. The asking price is $589,000. I would offer $389,000 reluctantly, and hope that I can get it liveable in a few months. It needs everything… and I mean everything. These pictures are the epitomy of deception:

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    You want to experience an instant enema? $629,000 for this f*cking gem. We made sure that we didn’t rub up against anything in fear of contracting a fatality. You thought the one above was bad? This one is as close to r.ape as you’re gonna get without the actual occurrence. OMG, this is a f*cking disaster. Again, the pictures do zero justice on this train wreck. Every time I looked at the realtor at the open house, he just shrugged. He was beyond speechless and so was I.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    You want the defintion of stench? Visit this one… situated on an obscure lot with no yard. My daughter was crying to get her out of there because the smell was about to induce coma. It’s yours for a half a million. That would be $500,000 f*cking dollars:

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    Here you go. This one needed a wrecking ball and hasn’t felt a paint brush since the Nix0n administration. This one had a lovely scent of slightly over-cooked cabbage. Since there was a bedroom in the basement, the taxes are over 14K as well. Oh, but there was a $70,000 car in the garage. It’s all about image, people.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    Another deception until you visit. I’m at a loss for words. They put in a hot tub/sauna thingy in the basement while the rest of the house fell into decay. The yard felt like you were lost in the jungles Borneo:

  8. Grim says:

    Tandy and Allen’s Greatest Scam.

  9. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Gary a couple looked decent in the pics but as you say deception. Gary you never answered me from the other day why not rent? You have a buyer now, take the money & run.

  10. Mikewaited says:

    Gary the market is the market I would not pay those prices for most of those places even without defects you sited. I do not see value & neither do you that being said you have been looking awhile with same results either go higher to get what you want or lower expectations. I find it strange that 3b seems to be finding livable homes in decent towns in a lower price range, whats up with that.

  11. grim says:

    Rentals in that area? Cost of entry is right around $3k for something that isn’t a dump, and a really nice 4br in a good location can probably push $4k.

  12. Fast Eddie says:


    Renting isn’t an option as grim pretty much explained. Tandy and Allen should be dug up and shot. And believe me, every one of those places is a sh1t hole. I’m not paying 600K for a sh1t hole.

  13. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  14. Mike says:

    Gary You would have a great reality show, I’m not joking either. Off to Lead East for the big car show.

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    Mike [14],

    Life imitates art, or is it the other way around. :) The reality is I can’t find anything liveable in the 500K plus range. It’s all v0mit city. These m0rons are not only expecting 2006 prices but require a hand grenade to boot. Reduce 20% plus the cost to fix the joint. So, the 600K piece of sh1t is really worth somewhere in the 400s at market price. That’s reality.

  16. Mikewaited says:

    4k to rent f**k that in spades & I believe you on the sh*t holes. But under the circumstances you must sign a contract contingent on sale of yours (even with your ready willing & able buyer) so it is harder to move quick on a good one which are few & far between if at all no? Tough road I was able to steel mine because people wanted out quick & short sale agreement expiring. It was on for apx. three days before it was UC by me close ASAP cash on hand. We know 3b I am sure he is not going to buy a crap house I wonder what he is looking at 4-5 range.

  17. Mikewaited says:

    Nothing liveable for half a mil. , crazy bud no wonder your pissed.

  18. Morpheus says:


    Think u are rather picky. Some of those did not look that bad…sure the wallpaper and floor coverings were rather hideous, but that is easy to remedy. What about the bones of those homes? Even an overgrown yard is not a problem: took me about 4 months of work to reclaim my (ha ha ha..the bank and the town’s) property. The amount of junk I found on the property continues to astound me.

    Image means nothing to me (nom can testify to that after seeing my old, beater jeep).

  19. Morpheus says:

    busy week at casa da morpheus. half the windows in the house have been replaced. I installed a new scope on the kel tec su-16. the AK arrived. Now I have the fun of selecting conversion parts. The AK with the 20″ barrel is huge. I am liking the ACE 7.5 inch skeleton stock to replace the factory stock.

  20. Libtard at home says:

    Patience Gary.

  21. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance says:
    September 1, 2012 at 12:51 am
    clot: for you this political season….

  22. Grim says:

    G man, those examples are exactly why rehabbing is getting hot again.

    You can basically build a 2000 square foot house for 150k.

    Plenty of good prospects (read: shit holes) in the high threes and low fours that make excellent candidates.

    A fully remodeled property in the low sixes is an easy sell with some decent profit (just don’t get greedy).

  23. POS cape says:


    But it has a Ken Bauer kitchen and Marvin windows. That’s got to be worth an extra 100K right there.

  24. Mikewaited says:

    Gary have to echo Morpheus, cosmetics are just that. Now for over half a mil you would think otherwise but if that is all that is out there change expectations or stay put.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    Morpheus [18],

    I said the same thing. Go see those shit bags and let me know if you still have an appetite. I have to go cut the grass, will return to banter later.

  26. Grim says:

    6 years old? Who is Ken Bauer? Is he related to Clive Christian? That kitchen looked 16 years old.

  27. Phoenix says:

    2000 sq ft for 150k? I can’t find a builder under 100/sq ft, and for that price it’s a plastic box that everyone on this forum would whine about, rip apart, and declare it a shithouse.

  28. grim says:

    Find a property with a good site plan, good foundation, good footprint, and at least a few exterior walls you can leave standing. Bonus if the first floor layout can be partially saved. Medium sized ranches are sometimes good candidates because by adding the second level you end up with a square footage that is reasonable (1500 sq becomes just under 3k). Capes are tough, you’ll be hard pressed to push 2500 unless you cantilever (almost worthless) or blow out the back ($$$).

    GC it yourself. Find someone that’s done it, or at least find 1 or 2 good subs, a good sub can usually help you source all the others you’ll need. This is usually the killer if you can’t make the time.

    Yeah, it’s not going to be anything fancy for sure, but you can cut easily cut back enough frills to ensure that no corners are cut. It’ll be nice, it’ll be clean, it’ll be new. Yeah, I’ll acknowledge that the kitchen will be the pain point, and can easily end up pushing closer to that $100.

  29. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [18] morpheus

    You still have that jeep? Wow.

  30. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    3 weeks until we move into our rental. Trying to resolve the car issue now.

    Spouse now wants to look at entirely different vehicles. Volvo XC60 and Acura RDX. In the meantime, deadline for deciding on the Highlander is today.

  31. Jill says:

    #26: Ken Bauer is a kitchen guy in Hillsdale. Friends of mine just redid their kitchen with them. Except for their tile guy, they were pretty happy.

    Gary, I’m with you on those houses. It isn’t that nothing’s been done to update them, it’s that they have the nerve to ask a half a mil for them. It would be one thing if they were true “time capsule” houses, like this one in Dallas or this one in Tulsa. But these aren’t time capsule houses, these are houses where they they didn’t do jack s#!t. Bit difference.

  32. Grim says:

    Nom – I’ve been impressed with Acura ever since my mom was involved in a head on collision with an explorer. Kid had his license for a couple of days, was texting behind the wheel and crossed over the double yellow, he never even hit his brakes.

    The explorer was completely destroyed, damn near tore off the drivers side wheel, suspension, and everything else. The Acura went straight to the dump as well, but I was amazed as how well it had held up. They had to basically tear the cars apart, the explorer was embedded halfway up the hood.

    Not saying its any kind of double blind study, but those are the kinds of accidents you don’t always get to walk away from.

    She got a new RL after that.

  33. Mikewaited says:

    Nom- “Spouse now wants to look at entirely different vehicles. Volvo XC60 and Acura RDX. In the meantime, deadline for deciding on the Highlander is today.”
    LOL Know how you feel, over 25 years still pulling stuff like that on me.

  34. Ernest Money says:

    chi (21)-

    Thanks. Been busy re-watching The Manchurian Candidate.

  35. Bystander says:


    What is a lowball offer these days? 10% off, 20% off..or are you just offering what you feel is market value, which could be 40% off reading through your posts.

  36. Painhrtz - I am a meat popsicle says:

    Nom that was how we ended up with the element. I lost the battle when she had to take her old civic instead of the Audi to work one day.

    Morph took us a year to reclaim or front yard

  37. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander [35],

    The last offer I made was 10% off their asking price. They countered with a discount of 2,000 dollars. I then wanted to submit a counter offer LESS than my original price with a note attached telling the seller to go f*ck themselves. I have no reason to respect any d0uchebag looking to retire and vacation off of my money.

  38. Ernest Money says:

    Just wait until the end of days and commandeer any house you wish.

  39. Ernest Money says:

    “Stewart Rhodes’ speech at Paulfest was the most shocking for many of the political Paulers, as well as the most necessary. He removed the kid gloves completely as well as any feel-good rhetoric, stating that the GOP as a party was dead, and deserved to be, letting the Paul folks know that any further strategy of attempting to “infiltrate” the Republican establishment and turn it over to the side of good was a waste of time. He also stated that it is no longer enough for the movement to play around as “intellectual warriors”, they might soon have to become real warriors. I agree.

    In my speech, I gave clear cut and tangible solutions to Paulfest attendees, including alternative markets and barter networks, commodity based currencies, micro industries and localized business models, useful trade skills, off-grid living, preparedness, and if all else fails, real revolution. Not idealized intellectual activism under the catchy label of revolution, but fists in the air and rifles in hand revolution. The kind that scares the crap out of most, not because of its danger, but because of its finality of purpose. The will to fight, really fight, is frightening, especially to those who cling to the belief that one can reason with his opponents. The cold hard fact is; some men are not men. Some men are monsters, and reason is the last thing that will ever sway them…

    I also closed with an admission; that I fear little for the future. Despite the flaws of the Ron Paul campaign, the elections, and the movement in general, there is something to be said for the miracle that has occurred since 2008, and I do mean “miracle”. Four years ago, an activist speaking against the Federal Reserve, for instance, would be immediately met with attacks from all sides and outnumbered 50 to 1. Today, the roles are reversed. The internet is teaming with life and defenders of liberty while the majority of Americans and even Congress are calling for an audit or end of the Fed. The preparedness culture has exploded with dedicated families willing to make the terrifying leap into a once alien lifestyle. The mainstream media has been crushed by alternative outlets; as their numbers dwindle into oblivion, ours skyrocket in turn. All in all, it is not a bad time to be a champion of the Constitutional philosophy, and the existence of such a movement gives me enduring optimism. I do not “think” we will prevail; I KNOW we will prevail.

    As I sat in the Sun Dome in Tampa witnessing the last speech of Ron Paul’s campaign career, I felt the loss that lingered within the crowd, but this was not the end. Not to sound callous, but frankly, the best thing that could have happened to the movement today was a farewell from Ron Paul and an end to the political theater that most have been caught up in for the better part of this year. The game is over. The real battle begins.”

  40. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If you had 100 ounces of gold would you buy a house right now, cashing in your Au as a downpayment?

  41. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    grim fans – how about clicking the PayPal “donate” button on holiday weekends as a thumbs up?

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    She caved in. We are keeping the Highlander. Idea of spending 25K more on a vehicle that the girls are going to trash and as insurance against a few years of potential repairs finally proved to be too much.

    That and dealing with salesmen trying to blow smoke up our behinds was just too much.

    Finally, the prospect of handing over that much cash to Trenton, well, ewww.

  43. Morpheus says:

    nom: yes…still have the jeep…215K miles. It will be 10 years old in march.

    Gary: I saw so many POSs in my search. Some of them were so bad, I felt the need to immediately shower after visiting. Remember, I searched for close to four years for a home.

  44. relo says:


    Used cars are a tough nut to crack these days. Helping look for a first car for my oldest and not much in the way of negotiating room, but they want his $$ more than he wants their car so it will eventually work out.


    While I’ve only purchased one new car in my life for personal use, I have done a few for work. Unless you view it as sport, why talk to a salesperson at all. Solicit bids via e-mail.

  45. Mikewaited says:

    relo 44 buddy has a 4 dr Saturn w/120 k for $1700, that is if you are looking for a beater. First car should be a beater cause the kids will beat it anyway. You can always flip it in a year if he shows he is responsible behind the wheel about what you payed.

  46. Mikewaited says:

    Can get more info if you want.

  47. LoveNJ says:

    When I smell stench, I smell money. When I see old carpet, layers wall paper, old cabinets, I see money. All cosmetics. Even when I see water in basement, I do not give up. I see more money potential, I can fix that.
    Anyway, any new owner shall tear old carpet, paint wall with your own favorate colors. Hire a couple house cleaning ladies.
    All these are good reason to low ball, as you have no competition. They all run away taking showers.

  48. grim says:

    41 – Appreciate the donation, and thanks for the plug!

  49. Fast Eddie says:

    LoveNJ [47],

    Yes, very nice, we’re all flattered. Except the cosmetics coincide with the furnace, roof and siding that’s needed as well as the Bobcat to clear the jungle surrounding the compound. And if that’s not enough, try convincing the owner to even entertain a lowball. Thanks for playing, try again.

  50. Fast Eddie says:

    Mike [50],

    Brilliant! lol!

  51. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Transfer window closed and the Gooners don’t get Tiote. Let’s hope they are one step closer to relegation.

  52. DL says:

    Been gone over a year dealing with my second cancer diagnosis. (At least is was a different kind this time.) Think we got it under control. Glad to see I still recognize a few trusted aliases.

    Moving back to Doylestown next year. Wife and I in a nightly discussion over whether to buy and be done with it or rent for the first year. Asked my agent to keep an eye on this one. Aside from the asking price, the bath and the and color scheme, comments appreciated.

  53. POS cape says:

    53 DL:

    Those taxes make Montclair’s look like chickenfeed. I thought you get a break in PA compared to NNJ.

  54. relo says:


    Thanks, I will mention to him.

  55. relo says:


    Very sorry to hear. Hope you get some good news soon.

  56. POS cape says:


    I get it, that’s the assessment not the tax. My bad. Looks like low low taxes.

  57. DL says:

    The tax, according to Zillow, is approx $5,200 a year. My goal was to find something under 7k.

  58. Ernest Money says:

    Gooners can go to hell.

  59. chi in westchester says:

    Abe Vigoda: 1
    Rev. Sun Myung Moon: 0

  60. Essex says:

    Gary needs to start on Cable Access a la Wayne’s World, Les Paul intro and then featured homes. Rants. Closing Song.

    Pure Gold.

  61. Ernest Money says:

    “The first pre-requisite of the establishment of a “society” of the rulers and the ruled has always been the same. The rulers must gain control over the medium of exchange. For obvious reasons, no nation can ever progress to a state of advanced economic activity until a medium of exchange is established. Once it is established, there is no going back. An advanced economy cannot operate by means of barter. The problem is that once the government or the rulers gain control of money, it progressively ceases to be a medium of exchange and becomes a medium of control. That impinges on the functioning of markets which in turn impinges on the maintenance of property rights. Thus, we come full circle from a free society to a command society. There has never been any shortage of those who want to rule. The problem has always been with the vast majority who are content to be ruled. Today’s global outcry for the manufacturing of more and more “money” out of thin air is an eloquent testimony. It shows that most people have no understanding of freedom, markets or money. Lacking such understanding – and having no desire to gain it – most people have accepted government as their masters.

    As Robert Heinlein stated the problem – it is impossible to free a serf or a slave. He or she must free themselves and most are much more terrified of that prospect than they are resentful of being ruled.”

  62. chi in westchester says:

    President’s Race – Nationals Park – Gangnam Style

  63. grim says:

    Friends of ours had tenants evicted last week, this week they find the house stripped of all copper.

    Maybe Clot is on to something.

  64. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [54] POS

    $5400 in tax makes Montklair’s look like chicken feed? Since when?

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [59] money

    One hopes. But they won today and we drew with Villains.

  66. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [53] DL

    Mrs. Deplume was born in Doylestown. I’ve never been but she likes it.

    Sadly, we will be SW of West Chester (still a West Chester zip code), and nowhere near Doylestown for a GTG.

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