August Otteau Report

From the Otteau Group:

Home Purchases Accelerating

Home purchase demand continues to rise in New Jersey where purchase-contracts increased in August by 29% y-o-y for the 11th consecutive month. Going back to May 2011, housing demand has increased in 15-of-16 months. The improvement comes as a result of lower home prices and mortgage rates, increased buyer confidence and an extremely favorable rent-to-own comparison. YTD purchase contracts in New Jersey have risen 24%, to the highest level since 2007. Even more impressive is that the 2012 sales pace is 11% above the 2010 pace, which benefitted from homebuyer tax credits at that time.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

102 Responses to August Otteau Report

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Mike says:

    Don’t know how many Jet fans on here, probably not many. Will be running out of the tunnel for tommorows game with the players following for the National Anthem. Friend is a season ticket holder and got in some raffle. Have to be there early for a rehearsal (want to make sure you can run) then go back in earlier before game starts. Bad part is only and hour to tailgate and must where a Jets Jersey

  3. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Wrong. Grim predicted 30% from peak and pulled the trigger when prices crashed 30% from peak.

    from says:
    September 29, 2012 at 12:42 am
    …I trust Grim to call it as he sees it even though he went from market-crash prognosticator to buyer….everyone has to make their move or decision at some point.

  4. Fast Eddie says:


    Big Giants fan here but that’s awesome. Enjoy the experience. I had the privilege of getting some press/stadium passes in the 90s and stood on the field and watched the Giants warm up before a game as well access to the tunnels under Giants stadium. It’s a lot of fun.

  5. Mike says:

    Gary, Not that much into the game but love tailgating.

  6. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Fast Eddie, Wow. Beautiful home in great town with low price too. Taxes under $12K. It must be smaller than it looks or have a major defect like a leaky oily tank in back yard, blown heater, old busted roof or maybe this is just the unicorn you have been referring to?? I say lob a low ball and jump on it. Whatever the issue, there seems to be value there.

  7. Fast Eddie says:


    It’s an open house tomorrow. I’m gonna check it out. If there is nothing major that sticks out, then they’re looking to start a bidding war. You know the saying, “if it’s too good to be true…”

  8. Ann says:

    Fast Eddie, I think the lot size is the issue, especially for USR, where larger lot sizes are the norm. Not sure how big it is, probably 2500 sf max, so the price is probably right. It looks very nice though.

  9. 3b Buying says:

    #5 Fast: Very nice, and definitely worth putting a bid on (assuming no major issues). Now can you find me one?

  10. Fast Eddie says:


    If there’s nothing major on that house, then it will go quick. If you see anything in the Fardale section into Wyckoff over to West Allendale area, in the mid 600 range, let me know. I do take a look at the ones you post. :)

  11. Fast Eddie says:


    We must be nuts to put ourselves through this! :) I’ll keep my eyes open.

  12. grim says:

    Gary – You’ll go that far up? That property is about 6 houses away from NY State.

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    If this one don’t have the vaunted open foyer, I would take a look at it. PSE&G loves this f*cking house:

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    grim [13],

    When the pickens be slim, we have to look at everything. It’s up there but we might as well take a look see tomorrow.

  15. willwork4beer says:

    ChiFi from yesterday,

    Cantillon’s Lou Pepe series are some of the most highly regarded lambics in the world. I haven’t had the 2006 or the 2007 Kriek so I can’t recommend one over the other. I would imagine both are outstanding.

  16. Ann says:

    Fast Eddie, I would be going for something in Fardale on a 1 acre lot if I was up in that price range. Better location and more space. Did you see this one yet?

  17. serenity now says:

    Gary – Cottage lane not one of the nicer streets in USR…Just OK
    I think price reflects that.

  18. 3b Buying says:

    #12 Fast: Only for the fact that I do not want to have to go to another rental, and then potentially have to move again in a couple of years, I would not put us through this. That being said I still think prices are going to fall, and it is all turning to sh@t as Clot/Ernest always says. But it is what it is!

  19. grim says:

    Looks like a couple of 2 fams and some long term rental properties

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Ann [17],

    Price is a little heavy for me but a nice find, nonetheless. I’ll check it out.

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    serenity [18],

    Thank you for the info!

  22. Ann says:

    21 Fast Eddie, if I was house hunting right now, that Fardale one is the one I would buy right now. A nice flat 1 acre in Fardale, low taxes, people not right on top of me, works for me.

  23. Fast Eddie says:

    And, of course, the mls website totally s.cks. Very little details, no tax history, etc. Like the true sales people that realtors are, let’s give you all the “candy” and hope you don’t discover the brussel sprouts. I gotta cut and paste into trulia to find some meat. I still think the majority of realtors and the industry s.cks. Hard!

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    Ann [23],

    It’s definitely a look-see. We’ll check it out. I guess I would have to throw a blog get together bash in that yard if I happen to buy it! :)

  25. Ann says:

    BTW I don’t think that price is right. There is a recent comp on Winding Trail that went for 600K. Tradeoff is Winding Trail might be a slightly nicer location, but the interior of this one is slightly nicer and it has a new pool. So somewhere in the middle probably.

  26. Ann says:

    I’ll shut up now, but you will love that yard. Pool is gorgeous, nicely fenced, private with trees all around. Great party yard.

  27. Fast Eddie says:


    You’re thinking 675K?

  28. Ben says:

    As per yesterday

    In 2002, 141 New Bridge was assessed at $117,300. Last year, it was assessed at $443,800 — well above Bergenfield’s average home value. Today, the home is listed for $449,000.

    The family paid $6,488 in taxes in 2007 and over $13,000 in 2011, records show. The real estate listing puts 2012 taxes at more than $15,000.

    My cousins backyard borders this house. I called this debacle the day it was built. But honestly, everyone on that block is paying 15k in taxes. I never understood it, they took this small plot of land and built a house that takes up every square foot on it. They would be better off converting it to apartments and renting it.

    Another funny extreme home makeover story. Another one of my cousins was involved in the 1 week construction of that place. He says they just rush through everything and have no concern for quality control at all. They had him putting up sheet rock with a roof off and rain pouring into the house. He then said they took glue that was supposed to dry over 90 hours and brought in high powered fans to rush the process. He said, in a year, the place would be filled with mold and mildew and the structure will have major issues.

    Extreme home makeover may be one of the most evil shows out there. They take a poor family, and pretend to turn their lives around. Yet, they give them a house that is built to expire. Meanwhile, half of these people can’t even afford the heating bill on these homes they build them.

  29. cobbler says:

    Does this signify the change in the country’s mood? 23 out of the first 26 posts are about RE, and the other 3 are not about doom, either…

  30. cobbler says:

    Make it 26 out of 29…

  31. chicagofinance says:

    Huge Jets fans from Shea days….first memories were the Sack Exchange…lost track a bit in the early 90’s when I worked sweatshop hours, and then I moved to Chicago and Rich Kotite, but when Parcells came in, it was my second wind. Finished my B-School app for Chicago during the Marino fake-spike game….

    Mike says:
    September 29, 2012 at 7:29 am
    Don’t know how many Jet fans on here, probably not many. Will be running out of the tunnel for tommorows game with the players following for the National Anthem. Friend is a season ticket holder and got in some raffle. Have to be there early for a rehearsal (want to make sure you can run) then go back in earlier before game starts. Bad part is only and hour to tailgate and must where a Jets Jersey

  32. chicagofinance says:

    BTW – that is awesome…..JJ is the biggest Jets fan on the board and gets the best seats…..

  33. Fast Eddie says:

    cobbler [30],

    No, it doesn’t signify a change in the country’s mood. We’re all realizing that final doom is imminent and we’re trying to enjoy what’s left of our freedom and assets. Now, more than ever, since the government controlled media is firmly in place and support for our black muslim president (Madonna’s words) is doctrine.

  34. Ann says:

    FastEddie, looking at the comps right around there for the past year, I’d say 650 as a start.

  35. Ann says:

    FastEddie, if you look on Zillow’s map on Winding Trail, you can see some solds for the past year. Similar homes. The one on West Rd. isn’t on as quite a nice location though, it’s on the corner of Fardale Avenue, which is totally fine, I think its a 25 mph. But WT would be considered a nicer street. So take that into account. The most recent comp on WT is number fourteen, you can google that or see it on Zillow and see some pictures of that, it went for 600K recently, but the interior isn’t as nice IMO. There is also another comp on Zillow on Pendleton, again very similar, went for 650 last year. So somewhere in there.

  36. Fast Eddie says:


    I’m on the road, will check it out. Thank you!

  37. Libtard at home says:

    ChiFi: Kraftwork

    You’ll love it. It’s your kind of place. Khyber Pass has excellent vittles and decent beers too if you are more about the food and less about the fancy beer list. Hope I’m not too late with the request.

  38. Shore Guy says:


    I have had the pleasure of running onto the field in various stadia with 70,000-80,000 screaming fans. It is a great feeling. The view up from the field is very different from the stands looking down. Enjoy it. Do you get sideline passes for the game?

  39. Libtard at home says:

    Unfortunately, I’m a Jets fan too. I like all the ets teams. Mets, Nets, Jets, Boba Fett.

  40. chicagofinance says:

    Khyber Pass? WTF? does the Taliban hang out there?

  41. chicagofinance says:

    btw thx

  42. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Grim or others,
    Any advice on flooring for finishing basement? We are considering carpet or this new floating vinyl called traffic master allure plank (it looks like wood or tile and sticks to other pieces of vinyl, does not stick to floor). Its going to be a play room for the kids. Carpet is softer and safer but we can always throw a rug over the vinyl. The vinyl is great with moisture as it is almost completely water proof and it extremely durable, the guy from home depot was scraping his keys across the demo to show us its scratch resistant. They both cost the same, roughly. What else should we consider? Thanks,

  43. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    One week in PA now, and last night the wife ordered out for pizza. She got a margherita and a pepperoni. She thought they were just okay, I thought they sucked.

    On our last night in NJ, we went to Cosimos in the brig. They know us pretty well and we were joking about having them fly in pizza.

    I am sure we can find some good za and bagels somewhere, perhaps in West Chester, but that is one thing about being in NJ, or even the Boston suburbs, that I’ll miss—the fact that you don’t have the good local food close by. Even New Hampshire had local faves that were pretty good. This is more like Virginia down here.

    On the plus side, the local hardware store is an actual hardware store. Even has animal feeds though I don’t need that. My Boston Terrier gets hers from Whole Foods.

  44. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Another plus is that I just learned that my older daughter can see the fireworks at Longwood Gardens from her window. There is a pretty good sized hill due south but the house is on another hill and the fireworks just get high enough. No sound though, which is weird.

    And today, she got herself an Eagles shirt. Won’t be outnumbered in school anymore.

  45. NJCoast says:

    In Bergen county as my dad is being inducted into the Fairlawn High School Sports Hallof Fame. Sure glad he moved to the shore after college.

  46. Shore Guy says:


    Congratulations on your Dad’s honor.

  47. Shore Guy says:

    In case this has slipped under the radar screen. News from the land of bike paths:

  48. Shore Guy says:

    The Oracle of Pennsylvania Avenue speaks on housing.

  49. marilyn says:

    $15,000 it live in that crappy town!!! Crazy!

  50. Mike says:

    Shore 39 No sideline passes have to go back to the seats after the National Anthem. That would have been nice though. Will see how it goes today

  51. Ernest Money says:

    All fading to black. Doom is imminent.

  52. Captain Sunshine says:

    No I hear they’re calling for sunshine today.

  53. Shore Guy says:


    You will see the game far better from the stands but, it would have been an interesting experience. Enjoy.

  54. Shore Guy says:

    Who needs sunshine when one has hope?

  55. yome says:

    Its gray outside but it cant stay gray forever

  56. Ernest Money says:

    Smoke ’em if you got ’em; it is the end of days.

  57. NJT says:

    Comrade – Food:

    iPasta – west chester – family from milan owns it good stuff – gelato next door ok but certainly convenient, also thai nudy cafe pretty good,
    Coatesville – killer food – this place is in the countryside where the horse farms are
    Classic Diner – Malvern – always packed breakfast and lunch only
    PJ Wheilans (sp) sportsbar – good basic food, clean, big & fast downingtown downingtown – don’t laugh, outstanding food really
    White Dog Cafe: Wayne

    in philly – best deli (at least in the US) Famous 4th street – both locations same food,

  58. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    It’s a bright, crisp, beautiful fall morning in the Brandywine valley.

  59. Ann says:

    Never found good pizza or bagels in Philly. Have to go to South Jersey, at least for the pizza, not sure if they have good bagels either.

  60. Njescapee says:

    It’s sunny and 87 degrees here so it’s another beach weather day in paradise.

  61. Fabius Maximus says:

    #33 Chi

    JJ is not the biggest Jets fan, just the smartest. He admitted that the reason he got the Jets tickets is because the Giants were not willing to deal on the PSL.

    Go niners!

  62. Juice Box says:

    Christie on Face the Nation stumping for Romney.. He looks like he added another chin, a guy who is only 5 ft 10 should not weigh more than 200 lbs. He needs to lose at least 100 lbs to no longer be considered obese.

  63. Shore Guy says:


    Your envy shines through. You only wish you had our weather, commutes, and taxes.

  64. Phoenix says:

    Mrs. Romney was asked what her biggest worry was should Mitt Romney be elected to serve in the White House.
    “I think my biggest concern obviously would just be for his mental well-being,” she said.

    If I was running his campaign, I would think it’s time to leash her, muzzle her, and tie her roof to the car. At least until the election is over.,0,7395032.story

  65. Shadow of Mitt says:

    Mrs. Romney was asked what her biggest worry was should Mitt Romney be elected to serve in the White House.
    “I think my biggest concern obviously would be downsizing our home. The first family only really has two usable floors and the second one is a glorified attic. There is always Air Force one, which is nice, but he would need to share that with staff. At least when we charter a 747 it is just family and the servants. Unless thay are operating the plane or serving us, we really have no interest in having employees or other people who earn less than a million dollars per year milling around us. It is so uncouth. Do you know that some of them actually borrow money to buy houses and cars. It is pathetic.”

  66. relo says:

    67: Leash, muzzle…to bad JJ doesn’t, ahem, “work” weekends.

  67. relo says:

    47: Coast,

    Go Cutters. A good friend of mine was also inducted. Congrats.

  68. relo says:

    55: Shore,

    Wow. Day one stuff, indeed – segregation of duties. Also, common in these cases are both superiors and underlings who don’t question either because they’re afraid to look stupid or just negligent. I believe you had said before; if you have two eyes and two ears…

  69. Ernest Money says:

    phoenix (67)-

    Don’t worry. Romney’s idiocy has guaranteed that he has about as much chance of being president as a can of tuna.

    This is in no way an endorsement of Bojangles.

  70. Ernest Money says:

    scribe (68)-

    I love it when people tell me I’m nuts. Yeah, I’m nuts…going nuts, while right-thinking people see no problem in insanity such as this:

    “Locating the latest 10Q’s (second quarter 2012) for JPM, BAC, and WFC, I combed the nether intestines in search of their FHA loan exposures and what is the current delinquency experience. Sobering understates the resulting data. BAC, far and away the largest FHA lender of the three has a $67.3 billion book of which $18.1 billion or 26.9% is 90 days or more past due. It gets worse. Government guaranteed loans at WFC total $28.43 billion and a whopping 69.3% fall into the 90 day overdue basket. JPM brings up the rear with a comparatively small $15.9 billion but with an incredible 74.8% being derelict by three months or more. When you add up these three lenders you arrive just under $112 billion or 10% of the total $1.1 trillion FHA insured market. Take my word, in aggregate the math and division yields that nearly 45% of all of these FHA insured loans are three payments or more behind. That is $49.5 billion of loans more than three months past due.”

  71. Ernest Money says:

    Think subprime was fun? Wait until the FHA bailout falls on the backs of your kids.

    Fade to black.

  72. J La says:

    Also a Cutter. Congrats. What year did he graduate?


  73. Essex says:

    Bad day for the Jet set. JJ will just laff it off sayin he sat next ta Charles Nelson Reilly.

  74. Ernest Money says:

    I would rather have my toenails pulled out with pliers than be a Jets fan.

  75. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    Anyone remember the DOL opinion I mentioned a while back, the one about the gov warning contractors against sending WARN act notices? I hear now that the administration is offering to pay the legal bills of any contractor that complies and gets sued.

    Junta politics at its best.

  76. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    [78] money,

    I would rather get the Lorena Bobbitt treatment than become a Jets fan.

  77. I am extremely impressed with your writing abilities as smartly as with the format to your blog. Is that this a paid theme or did you customize it your self? Either way keep up the excellent high quality writing, it is rare to see a great weblog like this one today..

  78. Essex says:

    Guy down the street from me got a write-up in the NY Times — has a JETs fan van.

  79. Ernest Money says:

    sx (82)-

    To be authentic, it needs a self-destruct button.

    “Guy down the street from me got a write-up in the NY Times — has a JETs fan van.”

  80. Essex says:

    86. WWBFD (What Would Bobby Flay Do)??

  81. reinvestor101 says:

    For the last time RINO’s, I beg of you to draft Sarah Palin before it’s too damn late. SHE’S OUR ONLY CHANCE AND ROMNEY MUST BE PULLED. HE WAS A MISTAKE. I can’t take 4 more years of Obama and I DON’T WANT STINKING HEALTHCARE JAMMED DOWN MY DAMN THROAT. I will NEVER participate in a socialist healthcare system. I want my damn taxes cut to the damn bone and I want to get rid of job killing regulations. We don’t need no stinking regulations. PLEASE, I CAN’T LIVE UNDER OBAMA. Here’s an ultimatum: If Obama wins, I’m gonna grab two buckets of gasoline, strap some damn c4 on and swan dive into hell. That act of self immolation will spur all rock ribbed Americans to action and we’ll have a damn Rock Ribbed Spring right here in America. Do you want that?? Do you want a Rock Ribbed Spring? If you don’t, then pull this damn joker Romney off stage and draft Sarah today!

  82. reinvestor101 says:

    Why even have a damn election if the stinking liberal media is gonna tell us who the hell is winning? This is bullspit—total bullspit and I hate the damn liberal media.

  83. Ernest Money says:

    I’d cook Bobby Flay. Seems a fitting end for him.

  84. Shore Guy says:

    “To be authentic, it needs a self-destruct button.”

    Isn’t it enough that the wheels come off just as it starts getting going?

  85. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    Jets lose, Pats win. If the Eagles win, I’d consider it a perfect football day.

  86. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    [91] money,

    At least he’d be self-basting.

  87. reinvestor101 says:

    >>yome says:
    September 30, 2012 at 5:40 pm

    Romney needs to spend more of his own money<<&lt;

    NO. Please. Romney needs to quit and quit now while we have time to draft someone else. I just can't take another 4 years of a stinking liberal muslim terrorist socialist president.

  88. NJCoast says:

    71. 76. Thanks my dad was the class of ’51. I asked my dad and he didn’t know- what is a Cutter??

  89. Jill says:

    Neanderthal #43: I’ve been reading a lot about the Allure flooring, because I’m considering it for my kitchen. A lot of people who have used it in basements have had problems with it not staying stuck. Unless you are dry, dry, dry, I’d stay away. If you want to see it in action, go to Pet Stuff in the Emerson shopping center where the Marshalls and the Stop and Shop are on Kinderkamack Road. He put it down but he glued it to the floor. Of course it is not a basement. If you have pets, buy something from him, he is a very nice guy.

    I have glue-down commercial carpet in my basement. I had a bit of seepage during Irene last summer when the power went out and the pump stopped, and it dried perfectly fine with no mold.

  90. Ernest Money says:

    yome (93)-

    Romneybot is the living embodiment of working with OPM.

    Nothing but a skimmer who has made a career off a business model (LBO) that should be illegal.

  91. Ernest Money says:

    Looking forward to reading a future issue of People where Romenybot and that lobotomized ginch he calls his wife go yuk it up at The Book of Mormon.

  92. Shore Guy says:

    “Romney needs to spend more of his own money ”

    Romney is a smart invester and he only puts money behind what he thinks will be a winner. Enough said.

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