Wave is coming, but how big?

From the Record:

New York Fed predicts NJ bank repossessions will rise

The number of New Jersey homes repossessed by lenders may increase by 49 percent, and maybe by as much as 140 percent, by the end of 2013, depending on how fast foreclosures move through the courts, according to a new government study.

The report released Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, made predictions about future trends in banks’ repossessions of residential properties from defaulted borrowers, based in part on the average time it takes to foreclose, which varies from state to state, and is always in flux.

If the average number of days it takes to foreclose on a property declines, for example, lenders’ repossessions “would rise sharply in most states, tripling in New York and more than doubling in New Jersey,” the study performed for the New York Fed by CoreLogic said.

As of June, lenders in New Jersey had nearly 1,979 properties on their books, and New Jersey ranked 38th among 50 states, the New York Fed said. The top three states were California with 49,299 repossessed properties, or 11.1 percent of the nation’s total; Florida with 44,677, a 10.1 percent share; and Michigan with 38,275, an 8.6 percent share.

The report also found that 16.3 percent of New Jersey residential property sales in July were distressed sales compared with 33.8 percent for the nation. Distressed sales include foreclosure sales, short sales and deeds in lieu of foreclosure.

In New Jersey, residential foreclosures tend to crawl through the court system, taking more than 900 days on average, said John McWeeney, president of the New Jersey Bankers Association.

A bill sponsored by state Sen. Raymond Lesniak, D-Union, may, if passed, speed foreclosures of abandoned properties, McWeeney said.

If the average time it takes to foreclose in New Jersey increases in the coming months, the backlog of foreclosed homes in the pipeline is such that the number of repossessions would still rise substantially, by an estimated 49 percent, according to the New York Fed report. On the other hand, if the duration decreases, the number of repossessed properties may climb 140 percent.

“That sounds accurate,” said McWeeney.

Although a foreclosure is a tragedy for a family that loses its home, bankers and economists say the market will not fully recover until an oversupply of distressed properties is resold and cleared from the market.

Once the bank owns the home, it is likely to be sold quickly because lenders do not want to pay the real estate taxes, insurance and maintenance costs, said economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

Some banks may be dragging their feet on foreclosing for economic reasons, because home values have declined and they are reluctant to recognize those losses on their books, according to Naroff. Once they foreclose, the losses have to be recognized, he said.

“If banks start seeing prices rise, will they wait longer? They might,” Naroff said.

McWeeney said most banks have been writing down the value of their problem loans before they take possession, so that is not an issue for most banks.

This entry was posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

221 Responses to Wave is coming, but how big?

  1. Fabius Maximus says:

    Friskies

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    I went to Trulia and pulled up the town of Hillsdale. It says there are 106 houses currently for sale. Of those, I counted 40 in foreclosure and pre-foreclosure. I’ll say it again; the ones currenly lingering for sale are the sh1t that nobody wants at a price where the seller is attempting to salvage some dignity. If the seller bought a piece of sh1t for 775K in 2006, why should I consider the same piece of sh1t a bargain at 635K today?

  3. Essex says:

    2. You sir should not. Good day. I said good day.

  4. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  5. Ernest Money says:

    Final doom is imminent. Prepare accordingly.

  6. Confused in NJ says:

    Bernanke owns 1/3 of the stock market.

  7. Marty says:

    Yea but Home Depot’s stock is trading 22 times earnings and pushing all time highs you mean to tell me thats not a true reflection as to what is happening on the ground?

  8. Neanderthal Economist says:

    I’m so glad I didn’t hold off on our purchase to wait for the wave of foreclosures that is supposedly going to hit the market at some point. I’ve seen a few of them hit the market this month and they are worse than knock down condition. I don’t think I would even go in to look. The one house looked like grass was growing on the kitchen floor.

  9. Neanderthal Economist says:

    My buddy bought a short sale house a year ago and he and his family are now getting sick from mold and I’m not sure they left much funds for remediation costs. They are noticing it grow in the back room. Apparently the house was built on marshy swampy land so mold grows easy. What a frickin nightmare. I wonder if they should talk to a lawyer about the bank not disclosing that? Or does “as is” condition pretty much cover them?

  10. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Gary – 2, with all due respect you’re getting a little rediculous now. Do the math, that’s roughly a 19% decrease in ask price and I’m sure you can get them down another couple of percentage points. The average decline for the whole region is only 25%. If you’re looking for 40-50% discounts you’ll have to go to Irvington or Paterson buddy.

    “If the seller bought a piece of sh1t for 775K in 2006, why should I consider the same piece of sh1t a bargain at 635K today?”

  11. grim says:

    Most clients I’ve worked with have been turned off by foreclosures, even though some of them represented fantastic bargains.

    Shit on the carpets? Money in your pockets. That’s what I always say.

    Unfortunately, everyone is looking for some kind of undiscovered gem in the foreclosure market, like an old Ferrari in the back of a barn somewhere, that someone gives you 50 bucks to haul away for them. They want the completely done, high-end, spotlessly clean foreclosure for 50% off market, and they want it on their terms.

    I agree with Neander, the FC inventory is pretty much unsaleable to 95% of the buying population in NJ. First, it’s heavily concentrated in areas that nobody wants anyway (Paterson, Irvington, Camden, Newark, etc, etc), and if it isn’t, it’s shit. However, realize that the price of a FC DOES NOT APPROACH ZERO, it approaches the value of the land less demolition.

    Don’t be surprised when most all of the FC inventory is scooped up by flippers and builders and returned to the market at prices that will make everyone whine at.

  12. Tiny Violin says:

    Gary, it’s it’s time to get a grip. Accept the fact that you are not going to swoop in to a “choice” BC town, screaming the principles of the housing mess, and come away with a pristine, solidly built, masterfully updated house on the end of that perfect cul-de-sac with reasonable taxes; all for the price, wait, we know, $600K. While that may be your bottom line, it doesn’t mean a seller has to capitulate to meet it. You’re the one that has to compromise. Either increase your parameters, or take your expectations down a notch. The energy you waste chasing that unicorn isn’t getting you anywhere.

  13. Ann says:

    It’s amazing how fast houses deteriorate without people living in them.

  14. grim says:

    The percentage numbers in the headline article, frankly, don’t worry me at all, the level is so low, that a 50% increase isn’t going to mean a whole lot. The 150% number is a little more interesting, but even that doesn’t represent the kind of Armageddon that that kind of percentage might imply.

    For example, last 5 weeks in Passaic County:

    http://pcsheriff.org/civil/sheriff-sold.pdf

    10/2 – 4 REO (2 Paterson)
    9/25 – 6 REO (1 Paterson, 1 Passaic)
    9/18 – 5 REO (3 Paterson)
    9/11 – 5 REO (2 Paterson, 1 Passaic)
    9/4 – 3 REO (1 Paterson)

    In the past month in Passaic County, we’ve had 20 Foreclosures/REOs. Half of which are in Passaic/Paterson. Let’s say the remaining 10 (Haledon, Hawthorne, Clifton, Bloomingdale, Wayne, West Milford) are more desirable. A 50% increase only adds 1.25 properties a week?

  15. Ann says:

    Fast Eddie, where do you live now? Is it somewhere you can stay? Sometimes moves just don’t work for whatever reason.

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    Neanderthal [10],

    A piece of sh1t is still a piece of sh1t at any price. Obscure layouts, stump-jumper neighbors, siding and a roof dissolving, weird looking add-ons and all kinds of crazy sh1t. I’ll repeat, I’m not looking for 40% discounts, I’m looking for a few to select from that fit… closely. I can’t find one as of yet. You all are invited to come and see the nonsense and judge for yourself. 600K and crossing my fingers is not and should not be an option.

  17. yome says:

    Exactly my thought. If there is only comparables for land prices,you know exactly ,you are not buying the matchsticks standing on top of the soil.

    “However, realize that the price of a FC DOES NOT APPROACH ZERO, it approaches the value of the land less demolition.”

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    Tiny Violin [12],

    Fine, let me show you the pie-in-the-sky piece of sh1t houses I’m seeing for 749K as well. You don’t drop 600K and then need to start ripping out bathrooms and kitchens. Let the m0rons who fell for the sales pitch 6 or 7 years ago tell you all about it.

  19. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Eddie, pos or castle don’t matter. You get what your price range will allow in the market. I’m sure the house that sold for 775k in 2006 and is now almost 20% cheaper is the same pos with the same horrible layout. Its time to buy dude.

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Libtard,

    Where are you? Did you say you paid 425K for yours in Glen Ridge? That’s 425K folks… not 650K. See the difference? Then you have the money to turn it into a 650K home. You don’t pay 650K and then pray for another 100K to guy the joint as you’re STILL making concessions because you had to settle for a f*ucked up looking neighborhood or strange layout or the on-ramp of the Parkway as your backyard.

  21. Brian says:

    16 –
    Why don’t you build a house somewhere?

    Something I see people do in my neighborhood is they buy a POS, knock it down to the foundation, then rebuild a new house on top. One, near me had been unoccupied for years. They gutted it down to the studs. Left nothing but the roof. Now they’re putting new Pella windows in and siding it. It will pretty much be a new house.

  22. 1993 House Buyer says:

    #18..before I did my MBR addition, I looked at N. caldwell, for the 4 bdr, 2 car garage CHC move up home…saw that i would have to spend $200k more and, as you have seen, still needed to redo Kitchen, bathrooms, roofs, paint, etc.

  23. yome says:

    If you are buying in a neighborhood that homes are 60- 70 years old,that is basically what is advertised. You are paying for the land. The matchsticks have a life span of 50 years.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    1993 House Buyer,

    What town do you live now? Or general vicinity?

  25. 3B Buying says:

    #7 What’s happening on the ground?

  26. 3B Buying says:

    #16 Fast: What is a stump jumper?

  27. Tiny Violin says:

    Gary, no one is disputing the appalling crap out there at any price. Tasteful or not, same as any commodity, it costs what it costs, and what the market will bear. Commute seems to be an issue. Have you considered towns like Fair Lawn, or North Haledon?

  28. Ann says:

    24 grim That’s a great deal. House looks fine too, doesn’t seem like you would need to anything right away. Wish I was free to house hunt right now.

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    Violin,

    The spread goes from River Vale to Fardale/Wyckoff and from Paramus to Upper Saddle River. Believe me, everything from upper 500s to around 700 went under a microscope. I’m willing to re-do the inside of a house… but not after plunking down 600K plus. It ain’t happening. Let the financial m0rons fall for that sh1t, I’m not. There’s a reason why I have a war chest and they don’t.

  30. grim says:

    Deleted it, don’t need competition. :)

  31. grim says:

    Expedited foreclosures bill passed the NJ senate yesterday

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    3b [26],

    Stump-jumper = Hillbillies. And believe me, we saw plenty of McMansions sitting next to the hillbilly neighbors.

  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    My sense is that there are a lot of haughty homeowners (the real kind, 100% equity) in BC sitting on their hands for 5 years now, waiting for a turnaround to materialize metastasize. When they realize it *isn’t* coming, then gary, if he can wait, will get then inventory and the pricing he’s looking for.

  34. Ann says:

    Fast Eddie, you have to take into account the cost of the land. Some of those Fardale houses for example….they are on an acre. Now maybe that’s not important to you, but I would give anything to be on an acre right now, I am so sick of being on top of my neighbors. An acre of buildable land in that area is going for about 500K right now (also a bargain compared to the peak prices). Now maybe being on an acre isn’t important to you, so then you should be looking for the best house you can buy with no care to the lot size.

  35. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [34] Ann – Give up NJ and it’s real easy. Actually, just give up North Jersey.

    I would give anything to be on an acre right now

  36. Tiny Violin says:

    He’ll be waiting a long time. I gotta tell you that in most cases, people were conservative, are not sitting on their hands, and are just living their lives. Gary, move your search away from these areas, they are out of your price range.

  37. Ann says:

    You never really know someone’s situation, they could have taken out equity for college, weddings, etc. So never assume just because someone’s been there forever, that they are free and clear. Could be far from it, plus they also need somewhere else to live, so the numbers still have to work for them. Then, there are a huge pool of owners (ten years worth, maybe a bit less) who won’t be able to sell in a normal sale in the foreseeable future. They will only sell under duress (divorce and death). Even the relocators who bought during those years are turning their homes into rentals. These folks are just out of the game right now. Which might be why the inventory is so horrible (and why Home Depot is doing well, people are staying put and doing little renovations instead).

  38. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [34] Ann – Too easy. I’ll leave this one for JJ.

    I am so sick of being on top of my neighbors

  39. Ann says:

    35 No, don’t have to give up NJ, there are some good deals in Mahwah right now on an acre. If only I wasn’t burdened with this house I bought in late 07.

  40. Ann says:

    38 lol. Oh no. I’m so sick of LIVING SO CLOSE to these other houses.

  41. J La says:

    39 There are. I bike by them all the time.

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    Tiny Violin [36],

    Right. Everyone lives in Haughtyville and every town is prestigious. That’s why people are hanging on by a string and can’t sell and those that are trying to sell are begging for someone to put them out of their misery. Save the fables for someone else… been there, done that. I’m solvent, they’re not.

  43. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [37] Ann – I could walk you to a dozen houses in just one small BC town where I know the people personally and their 100% equity situation. It’s all public record, so long as the mortgages are recorded. Do the research on your favorite, nicest, BC street, just one street, and tell me what you find. Try Concord Ave in Glen Rock if you need a somewhere to start.

    You never really know someone’s situation, they could have taken out equity for college, weddings, etc.

  44. Fast Eddie says:

    Ann,

    If the house on Deer had municipal water and not well water, I’d have an offer on it right now.

  45. Ann says:

    44 FE It has well water? You mean like it’s own well? You know the town’s water is well water right? Are you sure that’s not what it has?

  46. Ann says:

    43 Where do you find the mortgage public info for BC?

  47. Ann says:

    FE The other one I mentioned is good too IMO. I don’t think that is on it’s own well. But it’s too expensive right now. The comps around there don’t support that price at all. Still might be worth taking a shot on it.

  48. 30 year realtor says:

    Yesterday I contacted 5 of my sellers to request price reductions. All of then said NO! Also presented 2 offers on listings and had to push aggressively to get the sellers to give a counter offer $10,000 below their asking price. Needless to say both offers will go nowhere and the offers are closer to reality than the asking prices.

    I understand why Gary is frustrated. The vast majority of sellers are unwilling to accept market value!

    Currently marketing a home that was purchased in 2006 for $675,000. Asking price around $570,000. Seller is under contract to buy a much more expensive home and should have strong motive to sell. Instead of reducing price and accepting market value, they are considering renting.

  49. grim says:

    As of last year, 28.1% of homes in NJ were owned free-and-clear (0% LTV)

    As of Q2 2012, the average loan-to-value in NJ was 64.1% for homes with mortgages, the remaining 71.9%. (35.9% average equity).

    If we do some napkin math, and put the two groups together, that makes the average equity in NJ approximately 54% across all homes.

  50. Ann says:

    48 Do you think sometimes that it’s spouses that are actually disagreeing with each other. Like “Sure, I’ll move, as long as we get X for this house.” So sort of passive aggressively sabotaging everything. Although I guess if the people in your example actually bought another house and are considering renting their old one, that is not the case.

  51. chicagofinance says:

    Our rental took about 6 months to really get all up and running after sitting almost empty for 4 years. Note: we have well and septic….but just getting lingering odors and the grounds et al…..figure also I am kind of the do-it-yourself, curious-what-it-takes kind of guy

    Ann says:
    October 9, 2012 at 8:16 am
    It’s amazing how fast houses deteriorate without people living in them.

  52. cobbler says:

    eddie [2]
    Most of the houses listed on FC list on Trulia in “decent towns” are “pre-foreclosure”, not REO. People are living there without paying and expect to be doing this for at least 3 years, what is the reason for them to short sell to you? Maybe these houses become a real inventory 3 years from now when they are reposessed – but maybe they will rot completely before this happens.

  53. Fast Eddie says:

    30 year realtor [48],

    Thank you for pointing out reality. Again, there’s a reason why my house was sold, got through Attorney Review and had an approved inspection by the buyers all within a month. It’s also the reason why I have lots of dry powder and the jerk-0ff sellers do not.

  54. Fast Eddie says:

    cobbler [52],

    The majority of sellers are f.ucking mor0ns, that’s the bottom line. When your house is sitting for 247 days and you still insist on getting a specific price, despite scarce inventory, then that person is a f.ucking m0ron.

  55. chicagofinance says:

    JMHO to the board: Gary is out there on the front lines. What comes out of his mouth is pure gold, and not strained through all kinds of potential conflicts…..I say don’t shoot the messenger…..and he is funny as fcuk too……

  56. Ann says:

    Re sellers not willing to accept MV.

    Just want to be devils advocate for a moment….If they aren’t accepting market value, it’s because they either can’t, or because they don’t have to accept it right now.

    Go back to 2000. Let’s say you have some property right, you bought in the late 80s, watched it tank. You need to sell. Realtor is saying, this is market value right now, take it. Let’s say you waited or rented it out for five years. You would have made a bundle of cash right?

    So I think there is still memory in the population that the prices do come back, and not only do they come back, but sometimes they really come back. It’s not that sellers are mental cases, just that they are hedging their bet. And they don’t have to sell right now for whatever reason.

  57. Tiny Violin says:

    42 and they will surely beat a path to your solvent door.

  58. Libtard in the City says:

    There have been a lot of successful predictions made on this blog, but none have been quite as prescient as ChiFi’s call on the growing craze known as ‘Gangnam Style!’

    Hey, sexy lady…Oppan Gangnam Style

  59. 3B Buying says:

    #48 #30 I believe the low interest rates are keeping asking prices artifically high.Once those rates are gone (if they are gone), it will be a different story. The lower rates go I believe the less inclined owners are to sell. I have to acept that reality too, much as I do not like it. Because I could not move fast enough (out ot town), I lost a house that was in very good shape that would have perfectly suited our needs. And it went UC for 10k more than I wanted to spend. I cannot continue to rent, so I have to live with the fake reality of where the market is now. It is what it is as they say.

  60. Ann says:

    I think FE is hilarious. You need to post more links like you used to with your commentary. In fact, you should start your own blog just for that.

  61. Fast Eddie says:

    Dear Sellers,

    Go on a diet, you’re all a bunch of fat f.ucks. Oh, and f.uck you.

  62. 3B Buying says:

    #32 Fast: Stump Jumper!!! I like it. I have seen that too Big Mc Mansion next to a crap shack, and I mean it actually looks like a shack!!

  63. Fast Eddie says:

    Tiny Violin [57],

    I’ll throw them a scrap of stale Wonder bread out of pity for their stupidity. After all, it wasn’t their choice to be a fat m0ron.

  64. Ann says:

    There are a lot of fake listings out there right now too, that’s what we saw this summer on our fake house hunt where we played the role of fake buyers. One house, 1.0M, got almost full price, people were older, assume it was paid off. Got an offer, almost full price, but buyers wanted to close in six weeks. They turned down the offer bc they said they couldn’t move their crap out in time. Wait, what? Six weeks? You couldn’t move out in six weeks? I’d go throw my stuff in storage and get a rental. House is still on the market. They don’t want to move.

    Then there are a lot of fake buyers. People out there house hunting, just to see if they want to upgrade or change etc. Their house isn’t even on the market yet.

  65. yome says:

    If well maintained homes for sale are not willing to take a hair cut.how is the S*it homes that are selling the reality? Just like Gary said you need $200k to make them a home.

  66. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    There’s also a “shadow trade-up” market in some of the nicer towns. Neighbors knock on other neighbor’s doors to buy their houses and have more room for their growing families. These houses are never listed for sale, but they still sell. I know of one family that actually bought a smaller house across the street because the smaller houses lot was better suited for expanding the house. Right now that family owns both houses while they expand their new acquisition.

  67. Fast Eddie says:

    3B [62],

    There is a house on a certain street in Upper Saddle River. A beautiful home among a few really nice homes and this CHC was listed in the low 700s. It was really, really nice but had literally no yard. None. Anyway, the first half of the street going down to these few nice houses had a number of sh1t shacks that looked like the backwoods of Alabama complete with a few car parts and things that looked like a Still. This, among McMansions that would be in the 1.5 million range if on a different street.

  68. Fast Eddie says:

    yome [65],

    Something we totally agree on. :)

  69. grim says:

    From Calculated Risk:


    CoreLogic: Existing Home Shadow Inventory declines 10% year-over-year

    CoreLogic … reported today that the current residential shadow inventory as of July 2012 fell to 2.3 million units, representing a supply of six months. This was a 10.2 percent drop from July 2011, when shadow inventory stood at 2.6 million units, which is approximately the same level the country was experiencing in March 2009. Currently, the flow of new seriously delinquent (90 days or more) loans into the shadow inventory has been roughly offset by the equal volume of distressed (short and real estate owned) sales.

  70. Tiny Violin says:

    63 not only solvent, but willing to share with the little people.

  71. 1993 House Buyer says:

    #24..I am in Cedar Grove

  72. grim says:

    Just like Gary said you need $200k to make them a home.

    $200k to make them home? I suppose if by home you mean new brand new house.

  73. grim says:

    67 – Wasn’t most all of USR a shit shack 30 years ago?

  74. Libtard in the City says:

    “John McWeeney”

    Must have sucked to grow up with that last name.

  75. Fast Eddie says:

    Libtard,

    The price on your home was 425K, correct?

  76. Essex says:

    October Surprise???

    The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 – 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 – 45 lead. That’s a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama’s performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.

    Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now. Yes, you read that right. Romney’s favorables are higher than Obama’s right now. That gender gap that was Obama’s firewall? Over in one night:

  77. Ann says:

    73 grim yes. A lot of these so-called haughty towns up here were anything but 25 years ago. They were kind of rural and normal people could afford to live here. Now it’s all full of McMansions and Real Housewife wannabes. It’s sad really.

  78. 30 year realtor says:

    I have several vacant homes owned by estates currently listed. Houses are free and clear. Heirs refuse to reduce prices to reality and are not interested in renting. These homes all need extensive updating. Can’t understand what these people are thinking. Maybe the next property tax payment will drag them closer to reality?

  79. Fast Eddie says:

    30 year [78],

    People are financial f*cking ret@rds. It’s going to be a long, slow slag to the pit of death for these m0rons.

  80. freedy says:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/alpine-stone-mansion-returns-to-market-2012-10

    56 million for this one . What will it finally go for? Oh, you can pick up the vacant next door property as well.

  81. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [76] essex,

    don’t buy it. This campaign has just started. October isn’t going to resemble anything that has occurred thus far.

  82. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [76] essex,

    One good thing that will come of this resurgence: MSNBC will drop any pretense of being a news channel and go full time into Current TV mode.

    Come to think of it, I think that they dropped that pretense months ago. Never mind.

  83. All Hype says:

    Gary (79):

    My take on estate sales after conversations with friends: The children are over their heads in debt. They want to get every last penny out of mom and pops house cause they have lived high on the hog for the past 10 years racking up untold amounts of credit card and student loan debt. Not to mention the fact that they are 200k underwater on their McMansion.

    So yes, they are morons.

  84. grim says:

    freeed – Two million is the new one million, just like $250k is the new “six figure income”.

    54 houses in BC above $2m sold so far this year, more than half of them for cash (60% to be specific).

    All it takes is a crazy Russian looking for a place to stash his grandmother, and boom, you’ve got your $56 million.

  85. All Hype says:

    “Come to think of it, I think that they dropped that pretense months ago”

    I would say it started at the Bush versus Gore presential election.

  86. Fast Eddie says:

    All Hype [83],

    It couldn’t be more evident. Gold and green shag rugs, walnut paneling, Tandy and Allen sh1t design, the little clock that doesn’t work on the wall range in the kitchen, $12,4000 in taxes, all for 625K. We’re supposed to accept that as the new normal. Just like the discussion that died over $4 per gallon gas we’re now “enjoying”. When it was at $3 per gallon, there was outrage, now we’re just at the acceptance level of the Kübler-Ross model.

  87. Comrade Nom Deplume in Republican PA says:

    Something I have in common with Yankees fans: a marked disdain for Maryland State Troopers.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/maryland-troopers-ask-derek-jeter-nick-swisher-autographs-224753155–mlb.html

  88. Libtard in the City says:

    Land = higher taxes. Not a fan of it.

    FE, after inspection items paid for by seller. Took us three years to find it and I feel we still got quite lucky. But one had to have some vision to see how one could inexpensively convert a 1/2 bathroom that did not have room for a sink and a kitchen that did not have room for a refrigerator into a much more functional layout. A 2,200+ square foot home should not have an eat-in nook and a refrigerator on the porch. I know why so many people passed up the house. They wanted perfection. We always believed we’d rather have a dump of kitchen and baths so we could lay them out the way we preferred them to be. When the buyer took our lowball 430 on a current 460 listing I think (originally marketed at 530 and 540 I think and I hope Gator corrects my numbers as I have no memory for such things), this resulted in us achieving the third lowest cost per square foot for any house sold in the prior three years in GR in the under 600K price range. You’ve all heard it before…redid the kitchen including raising and angling the ceiling (mid range cherry cabinets and granite countertops). Redid two bathrooms to the studs. Reshingled 1/3rd of the roofing, sheetrocked two ceilings in two bedrooms and recrowned them both with solid wood moulding. All in, appliances, tile, 9 quality vinyl windows (6 custom), french doors, exterior door and fixtures for 50K including custom vanity (8-footer in main upstairs bathroom). So out of pocket, house cost $475K. Bank on Heloc appraised home for 550K. GR municipal government had house assessed in the 560s.

    Just checked the useless but entertaining online estimates for the home values and we are at:
    Zillow – $539,092
    Trulia – $471,000
    Homes.com – $598,800
    Homegain – $577,962 – $678,477

  89. grim says:

    89 – How much would you have had to pay for the move-in-ready version of your house?

  90. All Hype says:

    Gary (87):
    What I find very scary is that people do not have enough in the bank to live for 2 months without a job so they need to hold on, selling mom and pops 1950’s decorated house for as much $$$ as possible. People with a lot of dry powder would price the house under all the other houses on the market and take the money and run.

  91. Libtard in the City says:

    Most likely 550ish. Maybe higher if a sucker for a six-burner stove and stainless appliances was in the mix.

    We bid 490 on one house and 525 on two others which much worse layouts and/or locations. We are one house away from the country club in the prestigious north end.

    Cool part of looking at the updated zestimates is that you can now see lightning McQueen in my driveway behind the house in the bird’s eye image. Man, they update those satellite photos frequently. They massage my nuts at every airport in the country, but Google Maps is essentially providing perfect images for any planned military attack. I love our country.

    Anyone catch that complete embarrassment of an acceptance speech last night by MarkGastineau? Steve Politi tweeted it best… Mark Gastineau appears to have already donated his brain to science.

  92. chicagofinance says:

    I posted yesterday…….
    All Hype says:
    October 9, 2012 at 10:20 am
    Gary (79): My take on estate sales after conversations with friends: The children are over their heads in debt. They want to get every last penny out of mom and pops house cause they have lived high on the hog for the past 10 years racking up untold amounts of credit card and student loan debt. Not to mention the fact that they are 200k underwater on their McMansion. So yes, they are morons.

    chicagofinance says:
    October 8, 2012 at 1:04 pm
    Here’s how it works down in Red Bank…..85 year old widow dies and leaves inheritance to kids who are 50-60 years old. Kids already talked their mom into downsizing several years in the past, not so much because it will be good for their mom, but when she kicks the bucket, it will be easier for them to immediately jump all over the money. All accounts are in will substitute arrangements, transfer on death, or trusts. Mom leaves roughly $1M to three kids. Money disappears almost instantaneously, because the locusts have already pre-spent the money and run up debts, so the estate just melts into nothingness. The amazing thing is a lifetime of conservatism and responsibility is instantly incinerated. Some of the locusts actually get a scared look in their eyes when they realize that THAT’S it. Somehow, they thought there was magically going to be more. Then they want to talk to me, and I say fcuk you pay me. What can I do for them anyway?……

  93. Ann says:

    Why do realtors waste their time with these listings if they are overpriced?

  94. Juice Box says:

    Gary – rent for a year. Things will get much more interesting, the first boomer is now 67 and there will be allot more of them retiring by this time next year. Demographics of the towns you are looking in don’t lie.

  95. Libtard in the City says:

    “Why do realtors waste their time with these listings if they are overpriced?”

    I would think because it involves a lot less work and they are allured by the higher commission potential.

  96. Juice Box says:

    Chi – “fcuk you pay me” classic line.

  97. Essex says:

    82. once Dylan Ratigan bailed I have no reason to tune in. Morning Joe is a mixed bag.

  98. Fast Eddie says:

    Lib,

    That’s my point, you paid in the 4oos for a house that you revamped and sized up to your liking. You didn’t pay in the 600s. GR is top shelf in schools and in the desire factor. A town like f*cking Hillsdale or Washington Twp. isn’t exactly rocking the house in the “gotta live there or I’ll die” range. I’ll pay 450 and revamp the place… not 625K because everyone else says so.

  99. JJ's B.S says:

    400K is the new $250K.
    grim says:
    October 9, 2012 at 10:21 am

    freeed – Two million is the new one million, just like $250k is the new “six figure income”.

  100. Brian says:

    Could be a good place to host an open house and meet more potential clients.

    94.Ann says:
    October 9, 2012 at 11:11 am
    Why do realtors waste their time with these listings if they are overpriced?

  101. JJ's B.S says:

    1. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.
    > Avg. gross profit: $118,376
    > Homes flipped through mid-2012: 949
    > Avg. home price: $441,910 (13th highest)
    > Avg. days to flip: 118

    The New York area is the largest housing market in the United States, with more than 7.5 million housing units and nearly 18.9 million residents. And true to its big league reputation, there is no more profitable place for house flippers to turn around distressed properties, according to RealtyTrac data. But the available supply of foreclosed homes is slowly waning, off 14% in the first half of 2012 compared to the prior year. This has limited foreclosure sales, which fell 23.7% year-over-year. In the first six months of this year, the average foreclosed home sold at a discount of 39.4% to the average nonforeclosed home, down from 45.1% the year before.

    Read more: The Best Cities to Flip a House – 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2012/10/09/the-best-cities-to-flip-a-house/#ixzz28oiufBQD

  102. Juice Box says:

    JJ – 400k. How many MDs are there on Wall St these days? I would think their ranks are pretty thin.

  103. Libtard in the City says:

    I considered flipping mine for a quick 50-100K, but would I find another bargain to live in?

  104. 3B Buying says:

    Here is a pefect example of an empty house sitting and rotting, and over priced with small reductions along the way, and still sitting. Currently listed at 359K. I believe the house started at 459K, and has been on the market well over a year. Taxes are over 11K, and the entire inside needs to be gutted. Has not been touched in 40 years. Meanwhile the house directly across the street sold in April of this year for 420k, pristine, move in condidition.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1200027&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  105. JJ's B.S says:

    I would say salary not so much. But on income tax return many. Folks who kept their jobs on wall street during financial crisis and got more stock and kept investing have a pretty good income stream.

    I got two good friends who worked in Bear/Lehman type places and got the sack in late 2008 landed at another place that had issues and both got the sack again. Those folks lost out on the opportunity of a life time to get defferred comp, unvested stock and 401K matches. Lots of folks who held on at places like Chase, Citi and BAC got nice stock grants with three year vesting in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. Nice little cash stream that new employees wont get.
    Juice Box says:
    October 9, 2012 at 11:45 am

    JJ – 400k. How many MDs are there on Wall St these days? I would think their ranks are pretty thin.

  106. Brian says:

    107 –
    Where’s the mold and water damage?

    I dig the pink bathroom tile circa 1940’s.

  107. Comrade Nom Deplume in Republican PA says:

    I can never think of a reason to be in Ohio, but this year, it looks like I am especially glad I am not in Ohio. By November, Ohioans are going to be cutting their phone lines and cables, and moving into their bunkers.

    And since I kept my NJ phone number, I am not getting inundated with robocalls in PA.

  108. Comrade Nom Deplume in Republican PA says:

    [99] essex,

    Liesman and Santelli in outright shouting match on CNBC this morning. These guys cannot stand each other. At least Liesman cannot stand Santelli. Hatred and loathing is quite open now.

  109. Comrade Nom Deplume in Republican PA says:

    [86] all hype,

    Oh, I think they tried to maintain a fig leaf of journalistic integrity, but it is such a joke now that no one believes it. Might as well market noise to the syncophants.

  110. Anon E. Moose says:

    Here’s my model of how kids can f- up selling their parents’ house after they pass:

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/53-Dalewood-Rd-West-Caldwell-NJ-07006/38742384_zpid/

    Beyond from the necessary cosmetic updates you’d expect from an estate sale (wood paneling painted over), the house simply shows like an REO. Missing appliances, broken blinds, really cheap Home Depot quality kitchen cabinet redo. “Great 4 bedroom Split Level home in great condition” says the fourth agent who failed to sell it.

    Here’s the pricing strategy: List in March ’09 for $669k… chase the market down to $499k ask… price it $25k over/ignore a nearly identically situated (on corner facing the same busy double yellow) comp just blocks away in much better cosmetic condition… fail to sell after 4 years’ trying.

    I think they want to be the second generation to die owning the house.

  111. Comrade Nom Deplume in Republican PA says:

    NJRER Scoops the NYT!!!!

    This was on the board at least a week ago.

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/welcoming-higher-taxes-but-not-that-high/?nl=business&emc=edit_dlbkam_20121009

    We scooped Sorkin!!!! Booyah!

  112. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [113];

    I almost bought that because I wanted to be close to Caldwell airport. Turns out after buying the house, all discretionary income formerly dedicated to recreational flying is no longer available for that purpose.

    Thank God I didn’t buy that dump.

  113. 3B Buying says:

    #111 What was the topic?

  114. grim says:

    I feel I need to keep repeating this, but remember, no matter what, the dirt under the house still has value. Zero is not the lower bound, zero is not the lower bound, zero is not the… get it? I don’t care if the house is slathered in piss and feces, zero is not the lower bound.

    If a buildable lot is worth $300k in River Edge (It may be, it may not be, I have no idea), you are really only paying $50k for the entire structure. What’s that come to, about $30 a square foot? It’s easy to spend $50k on a car these days, you expect an entire new house for that much? I doubt you’d be able to build much more than a 300 square footer for $50k these days.

    This is the primary reason that we see higher numbers of shit houses, at higher prices, when we get into more desirable towns. As the value of the dirt increases, that leaves very little for the structure. This is one of the primary factors in why you get “more for your money” by moving further out, for example Oakland vs. Wyckoff. It’s not that the houses are cheaper, it’s that the land is cheaper, and thus leaves a greater share of value towards structure.

    I understand that it is difficult to decouple the dirt from the house.

    Most people look at the house, and think that is what they are buying, the dirt comes with it, when in fact, the first thing you need to do is look at the ground, since you are really buying the dirt first, and the house is really just coming with it.

  115. Comrade Nom Deplume in Republican PA says:

    When Obama loses WashPost, that isn’t good:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/obamas-claim-that-the-bush-tax-cuts-led-to-the-economic-crisis/2012/09/30/06e8f578-0a6e-11e2-afff-d6c7f20a83bf_blog.html

    WashPost says that Obama is really fibbing with this advertisement. Interestingly, in obvious deference to Obama, the article said that they considered, but did not award, the “four pinnochios” that they ordinarly hand out to “whoppers”. The mere fact that they said they considered it but did not award it is telling.

  116. Anon E. Moose says:

    nom [110];

    You’ll recall that political solicitations were exempted from the “Do Not Call” registry.

  117. Comrade Nom Deplume in Republican PA says:

    Moose, the DNC registry is pretty meaningless. Most telemarketers ignore it.

  118. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [120];

    There is no private right of action for violation. The DoJ should tap the SEC to investigate complaints, since they’re not busy anyway.

    Congress should throw a bone to the trial lawyers and lift that restriction. Let a class action go forward. Any (practical) recourse against off-shore call centers?

  119. A Home Buyer says:

    #117

    Where does Stainless Steel Appliances fall into that analysis?

  120. chicagofinance says:

    Yeah, but O-man approved this one too….

    Comrade Nom Deplume in Republican PA says:
    October 9, 2012 at 12:40 pm
    When Obama loses WashPost, that isn’t good:
    WashPost says that Obama is really fibbing with this advertisement. Interestingly, in obvious deference to Obama, the article said that they considered, but did not award, the “four pinnochios” that they ordinarly hand out to “whoppers”. The mere fact that they said they considered it but did not award it is telling.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bZxs09eV-Vc

  121. chicagofinance says:

    JJ’s B.S says:

    Yeah but WTF is new Jets QB? We could have had Schaub a few years ago for almost nothing…….

    October 9, 2012 at 11:40 am
    400K is the new $250K.
    grim says:
    October 9, 2012 at 10:21 am
    freeed – Two million is the new one million, just like $250k is the new “six figure income”.

  122. Phoenix says:

    [117] grim
    You nailed it on that one. Also the value of that dirt is determined by other factors in the town, such as school systems, tax rates, industry, neighborhood, crime rates etc. Changes to any of these things affect the value of the underlying dirt.

  123. NJGator says:

    Lib 92 – Maybe even more? Remember this place near Carteret with the 1/2 car length driveway and the third bedroom that was a glorified entryway to the master bedroom in the attic? 40×100 lot 1650SF house and steps to a former superfund site….sold for $525k all because of some granite, wainscoting and a dented Viking range.

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?district=0708&l02=070800019____00034_________M

  124. chicagofinance says:

    I work with some of these guys…..what is their story…believe it or not, a lot of them are phucked. Reason? Yeah the W-2 says $800K-$2.5M, but they built a life, debt and cost structure around W-2’s that say $1.5M-$5M. Anyone who lives in Manhattan right now that is not outright substantially wealthy is really hurting. These people should move the burbs almost immediately…..it is pointless cash drain…..

    Juice Box says:
    October 9, 2012 at 11:45 am
    JJ – 400k. How many MDs are there on Wall St these days? I would think their ranks are pretty thin.

  125. JJ's B.S says:

    Jets lose to Colts on Sunday Tebow is our new QB, loved they put Cromertie in as a receiver. He is best athlete on the team. Funniest point at game was I was doing a lot of handshaking and a lot of talking to folks on field during game. Maybe three beers on train ride from Penn with no dinner got me chatty. Anyhow are of blue Arian Foster comes running towards sideline during a break in the game, pulls off his helmet starts shaking hands with me and my buddies. First time I ever had an opposing player come over and want to meet us. Pretty cool.

    Mark G Mr. 99 was drunk as a skunk at his halftime ceremony. Funny stuff. Too bad Jets lost. Andrew Luck better also come by my seats and introduce himself if he wants to play in my house.

    chicagofinance says:
    October 9, 2012 at 1:07 pm

    JJ’s B.S says:

    Yeah but WTF is new Jets QB? We could have had Schaub a few years ago for almost nothing…….

  126. Libtard in the City says:

    Some game last night. Watched a fight break out between two Jets fans over how he wore his ski cap unfairly (had it sticking up ghetto-style). I am not lying. Hat ended up being thrown over stadium wall in section 337. Yes, I could see Russia from where I was sitting. Thrower ended up getting thrown out. Family of hat thrower stayed to watch game as dad got escorted out. Hat thrower apparently was the smartest of all of us!

  127. Libtard in the City says:

    Gastineau was the highlight of the game. After Wes gave his acceptance speech, which unfortunately revealed what happens when you take to many hits in an NFL career, I turned to my buddies and said that’s going to be a hard act to follow. It wasn’t.

  128. JJ's B.S says:

    Should come down to the first row with me. Kevin James looks even fatter close up.

    Libtard in the City says:
    October 9, 2012 at 1:35 pm

    Gastineau was the highlight of the game. After Wes gave his acceptance speech, which unfortunately revealed what happens when you take to many hits in an NFL career, I turned to my buddies and said that’s going to be a hard act to follow. It wasn’t.

  129. Comrade Nom Deplume in Republican PA says:

    [121] Moose

    “Any (practical) recourse against off-shore call centers?”

    A JDAM would be effective and less costly than litigation.

  130. JJ's B.S says:

    Cromartie intercepted Matt Schaub on a pass intended for WR Andre Johnson. The Jets took the ensuing possession 57 yards for a score to tie the game, 7-7. The pick was Cromartie’s team-leading second of the season. Primarily matched up against Johnson, Cromartie held the Texans’ top receiver to one reception for 15 yards. Cromartie also saw snaps on offense (as a wide receiver) and special teams (as a kickoff returner).

  131. chicagofinance says:

    Stu: I didn’t think it was a bad game. I predicted 34-10 Texans before, so I thought they hung in there well considering Sanchez is pure garbage and they can’t stop the run……at the end of the day, the failed onside kick was not such a bad thing, because #1 it should have worked if Schielens doesn’t let fall through his hands. The other thing is that the Texans offense was on a roll, and at least the Jets D held them to a FG. I think if it had been a standard 80-yard field, the defense would have been on their heels and Foster would have mauled them for a TD with an 12-15 play drive….

  132. grim says:

    Not to keep harping on land here, based on some recent land transactions:

    ~1 Acre in Mahwah – $320k
    ~1 Acre in Montvale – $440k
    ~1 Acre in Franklin Lakes – $600k
    ~1 Acre in HoHoKus – $735k
    ~1 Acre in Alpine – $1.3m

    Take the same exact crappy $50k cape. Put it on a 1 acre lot in Mahwah, it’ll be $370k, put it on a 1 acre lot in Franklin Lakes, it’ll be $650k, and put it on the 1 acre lot in Alpine, and it’ll be $1.35 million.

    It really is a very nice example of the price of dirt varying so dramatically, I mean, we have a million dollars worth of variation in the price of dirt.

  133. chicagofinance says:

    Since you were there, I don’t know whether you heard the analysis, but basically that fly to Cro was a TD if Sanchez doesn’t throw it away. #1 Sanchez underthrew it, but #2 he also threw it out of bounds….he sucks….

    JJ’s B.S says:

    October 9, 2012 at 1:54 pm

    Cromartie intercepted Matt Schaub on a pass intended for WR Andre Johnson. The Jets took the ensuing possession 57 yards for a score to tie the game, 7-7. The pick was Cromartie’s team-leading second of the season. Primarily matched up against Johnson, Cromartie held the Texans’ top receiver to one reception for 15 yards. Cromartie also saw snaps on offense (as a wide receiver) and special teams (as a kickoff returner).

  134. chicagofinance says:

    also JJ Watt is amazing, but they said Sanchez was staring down his primary, so they were blaming Sanchez….also the picks are Sanchez’s fault….you throw behind people or blast them at point-blank range and they don’t catch it? not the receivers fault….also the guys got separation…..

  135. Ann says:

    117 grim good post. Easy to forget that you’re really buying the dirt, not the house. Since we’ve been talking about Mahwah for a bit, as an example, an acre of buildable FLAT land (that isn’t on Stag Hill) is going for about 450K. In fact, the land is so expensive relative to what you can sell the finished product for, that you can’t build smaller than 4,000 sf at minimum on a lot of that size.

  136. Ann says:

    135 grim wow, that’s amazing the difference in prices for dirt. I remember back in the bubble, an acre in Franklin Lakes on a non-main-road was 1.0 M. I wonder if land-only prices have been hit even harder than houses.

    If you don’t mind me asking, where was that acre in Mahwah that went for 320?

  137. grim says:

    I didn’t select for quality, I just grabbed the only approximate 1 acre transactions I could find. For example, 4 Duncan sold for $430k, 15 Aronow for $450k. Both were 1 acre.

    Likewise in Alpine, there was a sale on Rio Vista that I believe represented a land sale (even though there was a house on the lot). 2 acres, $4.5 million.

    So yes, wide variation even in land prices.

  138. grim says:

    139 – 21 Black Oak, Sorry $315k not $320k.

  139. Jill says:

    #100: Then you aren’t you looking at houses in the $400 – $450K range that you can update?

  140. 30 year realtor says:

    #94 Ann – We take overpriced listings in the hope that we can wear the seller down over the term of the listing. I tell sellers what I believe the house is worth but I also tell them it is their house and they decide the price. Every two weeks I send them comps and an explanation as to why they need to reduce the price. I do this until they reduce or tell me to go f.uck myself. After that, wash, rinse, repeat…

  141. Ann says:

    140 grim, thanks! I was just curious. I thought it was around 400-450. There is variation with grade around here though, with flat selling for more.

    2 acres 4.5 mil. Wow.

  142. Ann says:

    143 Makes sense, but sounds exhausting!

  143. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nompound Alert!

    Bad state government (NY), but 350 acres…

    http://homes.yahoo.com/news/a-near-invisible-multimillion-dollar-glass-home.html
    http://taghkanichouse.com/

    I could build a nice private airstrip on 350 acres.

  144. JSMC says:

    143 Sounds like a fun theme for a reality show. Kind of like Pawn Stars except people are trying to pawn off their houses at 200k over it’s actual value.

    I would watch every episode, with popcorn.

  145. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [147];

    from the yahoo puff piece/sales flyer: “refrigerated cheese room” ?!? The next must-have luxury space?

  146. relo says:

    128: Who told you who he was?

    Anyhow are of blue Arian Foster comes running towards sideline during a break in the game, pulls off his helmet starts shaking hands with me and my buddies.

  147. Painhrtz - Diner at the end of the universe which ironically looks alot like Minneapolis says:

    350 acres I could build a defensible perimeter. glasds structure would be perfect for an anitaircraft battery

  148. Painhrtz - Diner at the end of the universe which ironically looks alot like Minneapolis says:

    and instead of a cheese room would prefer a subterrainean dungeon/rumpus room for persecution of trespassers

  149. JJ's B.S says:

    That was my side of field. Was a quick trick play that caught texans off guard. Cro stretched out to catch but could not stay inbounds. If he caught Cro would have scored. Cro often does kick off returns and he is quick

    chicagofinance says:
    October 9, 2012 at 1:57 pm

    Since you were there, I don’t know whether you heard the analysis, but basically that fly to Cro was a TD if Sanchez doesn’t throw it away. #1 Sanchez underthrew it, but #2 he also threw it out of bounds….he sucks….

  150. JJ's B.S says:

    Once I went down into a cheese room,
    and instead of a cheese room would prefer a subterrainean dungeon/rumpus room for persecution of trespassers

  151. Ragnar says:

    Speaking of heirs that don’t know how to sell, look at this saga in my former neighborhood of Scotch Plains in price history. Listed at $560k in 2009, sold for $380 in 2012. Looks like they were blaming their agent all the way. Dirty shag, cracked slab, knotty pine, and 1960s kitchen had nothing to do with it.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2242-Old-Farm-Rd-Scotch-Plains-NJ-07076/40054356_zpid/

  152. joyce says:

    I’m sure I know less about football than the fellows on here, but JJ… it looked like the throw took the receiver out of bounds. No way he would have scored on that play unless Sanchez’s throw “led the receiver” and was in bounds.

  153. Statler Waldorf says:

    Fast Eddie, what is wrong with this house?

    41 Park Ln
    Essex Fells Twp, NJ 07021

    MLS ID: 2950610

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/41-Park-Ln_Essex-Fells_NJ_07021_M51435-58229

  154. chicagofinance says:

    Not that I didn’t know this, but unless Sanchez can step up and into his throw, he loses velocity and accuracy……defenses know it, and they purposes try to crowd him so he screws up……he sucks….AND he chucks….

    joyce says:
    October 9, 2012 at 3:14 pm
    I’m sure I know less about football than the fellows on here, but JJ… it looked like the throw took the receiver out of bounds. No way he would have scored on that play unless Sanchez’s throw “led the receiver” and was in bounds.

  155. Ragnar says:

    Grim, 117 and follow ups.
    Good points.
    The best value in housing is probably an apartment in Short Hills. When I first moved to NJ in 98, we rented a 1BR at Short Hills Terrace, up the hill from the Kings. I walked to the midtown direct train. We were paying about $1000/mo back then. If I had kids back then, they could have been going to a highly rated public school system. I noticed some Russian families were living there with exactly that idea. Get a 2 br and stuff 3 kids in the extra br, and suddenly you’ve got $60k worth of prestigious eductation for maybe $24,000 per year.

  156. Ernest Money says:

    Our future is about as bright as the Jets’.

    Game over.

  157. Ernest Money says:

    MIAMI (AP) — The winner of a roach-eating contest in South Florida died shortly after downing dozens of the live bugs as well as worms, authorities said Monday.
    About 30 contestants ate the insects during Friday night’s contest at Ben Siegel Reptile Store in Deerfield Beach about 40 miles north of Miami. The grand prize was a python.

    Edward Archbold, 32, of West Palm Beach became ill shortly after the contest ended and collapsed in front of the store, according to a Broward Sheriff’s Office statement released Monday. He was taken to the hospital where he was pronounced dead. Authorities were waiting for results of an autopsy to determine a cause of death.
    The medical examiner’s office said Tuesday it has sent samples of Archbold’s remains for testing, but results are not expected for another week or two.

  158. Fast Eddie says:

    Statler [156],

    Absolutley nothing wrong with that house. But if you already have a kid in a certain school not even close to that area, it would be a little bit of a problem. :)

  159. Essex says:

    158. You really want to be the poorest family growing up in snootyville? Yeah your kid will have an education alright.

  160. Mike says:

    160 Any idea what the winner got?

  161. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Here’s a nice .4 acre level build lot in a great neighborhood in BC. $11K taxes with no house, but the lot is nicely landscaped. That works out to over $1 million/acre. It’s not for sale, either.

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?district=0222&l02=022200053____00009__02_____M

  162. 1993 House Buyer says:

    #163,,,apparently death…

  163. Libtard in the City says:

    Essex (162):

    At times, that’s what I felt like growing up. Sure, I wasn’t on the free food plan, but all my buddies got everything they asked for. I thought designer jeans and Puma’s were a waste of money (though I really, really wanted them). It made me stronger and my former resentment of my tough upbringing has dramatically changed as I age.

  164. Essex says:

    166. Not worth it my friend.

  165. chicagofinance says:

    photo

    Ernest Money says:
    October 9, 2012 at 3:27 pm
    MIAMI (AP) — The winner of a roach-eating contest in South Florida died shortly after downing dozens of the live bugs as well as worms, authorities said Monday.
    About 30 contestants ate the insects during Friday night’s contest at Ben Siegel Reptile Store in Deerfield Beach about 40 miles north of Miami. The grand prize was a python.

    Edward Archbold, 32, of West Palm Beach became ill shortly after the contest ended and collapsed in front of the store, according to a Broward Sheriff’s Office statement released Monday. He was taken to the hospital where he was pronounced dead. Authorities were waiting for results of an autopsy to determine a cause of death.
    The medical examiner’s office said Tuesday it has sent samples of Archbold’s remains for testing, but results are not expected for another week or two.

    http://1-ps.googleusercontent.com/h/newsinfo.inquirer.net/files/2012/10/298x224xRoach-Eating-Contest-298×224.jpg.pagespeed.ic.Bm8e4o3nhS.jpg

  166. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [166] In Wayne, NJ they were having a lot of problems in the HS in the mid 80’s with the have and have-not kids and Wayne spans the gamut from the uber-wealthy to the poor in the flood plain. Since they had two High Schools what they ended up doing was bus the uber-wealthy *and* the poor to one HS and put all the middle and upper middle class kids in the other school. The school with the middle kids was pretty homogenous and the extreme polarity of the other school just seemed to work.

    At times, that’s what I felt like growing up. Sure, I wasn’t on the free food plan, but all my buddies got everything they asked for. I thought designer jeans and Puma’s were a waste of money (though I really, really wanted them). It made me stronger and my former resentment of my tough upbringing has dramatically changed as I age.

  167. Ann says:

    162 Agree. You never want to be the poorest kid or the richest kid in a particular town. Somewhere in the middle is best.

  168. Tiny Violin says:

    I knew people in Wayme in the mid 80’s, no such thing as uber-wealthy in Wayne.

    Ramapo-Indian Hills did something similar in the mid 90’s. Three towns in district, Wyckoff, Franklin Lakes and Oakland. All of Wyckoff, and Franklin Lakes on one side of 208 went to Ramapo. All of Oakland and the other side of Franklin Lakes went to Indian Hills. Franklin Lakes that was paired with Oakland couldn’t accept being schooled with “poor” Oakland, so district voted that all three towns could choose between both high schools. It is one of the dumbest concepts in public education I’ve ever witnessed.

  169. Tiny Violin says:

    As I have first hand knowledge of this relationship, you can only imagine the thought process of some of these kids when making their decision. Unreal.

  170. yome says:

    #164

    That has to be a commercial Land for that price

  171. 3B Buying says:

    What can you say? At the end of the day, what can you really say? I know the value is in the land, but what can you say.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1230325&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  172. cobbler says:

    nom [132]
    Highly effective way of eliminating off-shore call centers, at least those that deal in advertising, is to put a 3 or 5 cents a minute fee (to the caller) for all incoming international calls to actual phone numbers, no matter how they are routed (skype to skype not affected, neither are outgoing calls). When the call center has to add $3 per hour in fees to 75 cents it pays the caller, it suddenly becomes uneconomical.

  173. grim says:

    I knew people in Wayme in the mid 80′s, no such thing as uber-wealthy in Wayne.

    Especially now that I’m in Wayne, I drag down the whole lot.

  174. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Fast Eddie, this is bad comparison. You’re trying to compare libs deal in 2010 vs market today in late 2012. It took major guts to jump in during 2010. There was a lot of uncertainty and cs index was dropping 10% per year with no end in sight. No wonder lib got a 35% discounted steal. Now its nearly 2013 and the market and economy has stabilized substantially, unemployment is down, stocks are up, mortgage interest rates are 40% lower and inventory is record lows. You’re not in position to cherry pick anymore. Market has changed in that respect. But 25% discount from peak and 40% lower mortg rates is still a really great deal. Its all in your perspective I guess.

    “Libtard,Where are you? Did you say you paid 425K for yours in Glen Ridge? That’s 425K folks… not 650K. See the difference? “

  175. Tiny Violin says:

    179 not even close. I should have qualified my comment however. Like anything else, rich in one town, may not necessarily set the bar in another.

  176. grim says:

    178 – Most political outbound work is pretty high margin, lots of it is done on-shore. In fact, most political TM is run by those with connections, they keep the dollars in the family so to speak. Always a concern about potential backlash too. I’d be very surprised if the pollsters were using off-shore labor either, I would think they would be very concerned about agent accent causing potential bias.

    Highly effective way of eliminating off-shore call centers, at least those that deal in advertising, is to put a 3 or 5 cents a minute fee (to the caller) for all incoming international calls to actual phone numbers

    It’s all voip until it hits a carrier here in the states, all these calls are domestic from a telephony point of view. Likewise, there is no mechanism that I know of in-place today that would allow for this kind of credit-back activity to take place. This would be a tax on the carriers more than anything, probably cost billions to implement.

  177. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [177] yo – nope. That is the back yard of 100 Lowell Rd and always has been since the house was built in the mid 50’s, and it’s always been a separate lot and taxed as such. I believe it has been, for many decades, the only conventional un-built SF lot in all of Glen Rock. The adjacent lot, the one with the house on it, is taxed at $22K/year. So if Ann makes the owners an offer they can’t refuse (they’re retired), she can have nearly her acre in BC (~.85 combined) along with the $33K tax bill that goes with the home.

    #164

    That has to be a commercial Land for that price

  178. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [184] I mean the backyard of 32 Lowell Rd, not 100 Lowell Rd.

  179. Ann says:

    174 Re Ramapo Indian Hills…from what I hear allowing kids to choose actually worked out well. Populations vary, and at this point IH is attracting more kids than Ramapo for some reason. They also have academy programs, some based at one and some at the other, so kids will go to one or the other based on that as well. IIRC it was actually students in Oakland who sued to have access to Ramapo, but not 100% on that.

  180. Ann says:

    I gotta admit, if there is one town I have no clue about around here, it’s Wayne.

  181. Ann says:

    183 Re lot in GR…no thanks. Too haughty!

  182. Ann says:

    177 3b I don’t think that house looks so bad for the right person. Better than a condo maybe. Walkable.

  183. cobbler says:

    grim [182]

    Businesses that hire call centers are U.S. entities, and they pay the call center company in some way, definitely through the banking system. This is where IRS can catch them. If the regs clearly state that you have to pay if the call originates overseas, whether voip or telephony, and you don’t, it’s tax evasion.

  184. Tiny Violin says:

    185 Yes, IH after years into the process, is actually tipping the scales in being the more popular choice. So much so, that the university programs will be offered at Ramapo as well. Most still feel that this is one choice kids shouldn’t have to make, and I agree. Too many trend based decisions for most.

  185. Tiny Violin says:

    174 Originally, the plan was to only give Franklin Lakes the choice. Oakland said forget that, either we all choose, or no deal. Wyckoff of course, had no say and had to keep quiet as they were the only party without a high school in their town.

  186. chicagofinance says:

    I agree conditions are different, but it is really the people who are sick of having their lives on hold coupled with interest rates that are priming this market. As much as Gary is pissed off, I think his approach is sound. I think people buy now are going to regret it……it may be the correct move should there circumstances dictate, but the sh!t is sh!t, and the good stuff is probably overpriced for what it is……..

    Neanderthal Economist says:
    October 9, 2012 at 5:39 pm
    Fast Eddie, this is bad comparison. You’re trying to compare libs deal in 2010 vs market today in late 2012. It took major guts to jump in during 2010. There was a lot of uncertainty and cs index was dropping 10% per year with no end in sight. No wonder lib got a 35% discounted steal. Now its nearly 2013 and the market and economy has stabilized substantially, unemployment is down, stocks are up, mortgage interest rates are 40% lower and inventory is record lows. You’re not in position to cherry pick anymore. Market has changed in that respect. But 25% discount from peak and 40% lower mortg rates is still a really great deal. Its all in your perspective I guess.

    “Libtard,Where are you? Did you say you paid 425K for yours in Glen Ridge? That’s 425K folks… not 650K. See the difference? “

  187. chicagofinance says:

    buy now = buying now
    should there circumstances = should their circumstances

  188. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [193] chifi – I agree completely. I think if you buy now because you want to, fine, but stretching to buy too much could likely be the wrong move, and a costly and painful one. OTOH, if you just want to put down roots and/or get out from under the landlord/lessee system I would advise doing it judiciously. To my way of thinking, buying judiciously would be putting 40% down and taking on a mortgage that you are confident you can OVERpay with ONE income that has a HIGH likelihood of continuing and expect ZERO return OR LESS over the next 10 years on your investment lifestyle purchase.

    I agree conditions are different, but it is really the people who are sick of having their lives on hold coupled with interest rates that are priming this market. As much as Gary is pissed off, I think his approach is sound. I think people buy now are going to regret it……it may be the correct move should there circumstances dictate, but the sh!t is sh!t, and the good stuff is probably overpriced for what it is……..

  189. chicagofinance says:

    Marc Faber is awesome…..
    Tuesday, on the 5-year anniversary of the Dow’s record high close of 14,164.53, Faber said he was “actually surprised” the index was at 5 percent off that level “because if I look at the presidential candidates today, if Obama is elected, I think the Dow Jones should be negative-13,473, and if Romney gets elected, it should be minus-6,000.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49278307

  190. landman stan says:

    Grim 135, thank you for the land comps. Interesting to note the closer the land is to Manhattan, the higher its value. Check out this vacant land transaction that happened a few months ago in Jersey City: 1.7 acres, $35 million sale price.

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?district=0906&l02=090614507____00001_________M

    Most suburban homeowners and realtors are stuck in a stupor and believe schools and property taxes drive real estate values. They don’t. When it comes to real estate values, your land comps along with this recent Jersey City comp prove that proximity to New York is what matters. While suburban land values continue to flounder well below the previous peak, land values closer in to Manhattan have blasted to all time highs.

  191. grim says:

    I gotta admit, if there is one town I have no clue about around here, it’s Wayne.

    Huge town, wide variations in neighborhoods, as can be expected when you are about as large as the whole of Pascack valley. You’d really need to slice and dice it into smaller areas to really be able to classify it.

    The problem is talking about desirability, is that there are a number of areas that tend to appeal to certain types of buyers.

    Most desirable area (arguable) is probably Pines Lake, which forms the Franklin Lakes & Oakland border to the North. The problem with PL is that unless you commute off the 208 or 287 corridors, having to cross wayne to hit 80/23/46 is a headache. You can get a beautiful lakefront house in the $1m range.

    Packanack Lake area is also very nice, tigher community, a bit smaller lot sizes, but all in all a very nice neighborhood. Lots of folks love this area because very kid friendly and there are some decent amenities associated with the lake. Outside of Mountain Lake, which is arguably the nicest lake style community in close proximity to NYC & mass transit, Packanack would probably rank second, otherwise there are some nice choices around Randolph or Denville. $450-550k will get you a decent house here.

    Vizcaya neighborhood probably has the most expensive housing stock, not too far from Pines, but newer, top of the mountain. Cost of entry around here is probably $800k. During the bubble, most of this area was trading in the $1.25-1.5m range.

    Valley is probably the most affordable area of the bunch, although it does have 2-3 block areas of homes that rank significantly higher than the surrounding stock. Folks like it because it’s the most commutable section of town. You can find decent splits in the lower 4s to start. Nicer homes in the 5s.

    I’m in a neighborhood called Tom’s Lake (Hills) but nobody really seems to call it that. It’s a mix of newer and older homes, I think it was started in the 50s, but the latest string of development was late 80s or so. A split here will set you back about $450k, one of the newer development homes is probably around $600k.

    I won’t bother talking about the flood neighborhoods, and I’ve left out at least a half dozen neighborhoods (Lionshead Lake, Pompton Lake, etc)

    Two highschools, as mentioned above, Hills and Valley. Big rivalry, most of the bigger $$ neighborhoods go to Hills.

  192. Juice Box says:

    Grim yet nobody snapped up those listings. Problem is what exactly?

  193. grim says:

    I was looking for pretty pictures.

    $20k+ taxes do suck though.

  194. Juice Box says:

    re: Wayne, I will chime in again. Cowoker of mine lives in Little Falls 3rd generation Italian American with two kids and stay at home wife he and would love to trade up to a Wayne lakefront comunity. Problem is nobody will buy his home and he cannot afford to trade up on one income. He has looked at the exuburbs and has said flat out lack of community and commute is a killer, Wayne is somewhat of a manageable commute but way overpriced and overtaxed.

  195. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [198]

    That Packanack Lake house was the first we offered on. I figured it was very unlikely that our first offer would go through, but it was a decent property and not a bad way to cut our teeth. We liked it enough to go back to the neighborhood, but never found another that was north of the Packanack/Carter school border.

  196. Anon E. Moose says:

    Redux [203];

    Not “that” house, as in the one you cite, above, but “a” Packanack property. Anyway, just a comment about the desirability of the neighborhood…

  197. Fabius Maximus says:

    #198 grim

    “I won’t bother talking about the flood neighborhoods”
    You can’t discuss Wayne without talking Hoffman Grove.

  198. Fabius Maximus says:

    #203 Moose

    That house defines the term Fugly!

  199. Fabius Maximus says:

    #76 Essex

    Here is the scoop on the race and the polls. O had a bad debate, big deal. The needle hasn’t moved in the real world. Yes, Mitt got a bounce, but its not enough.
    Big poll today was Ohio. 51/47 from 51/43 a week ago, it’s a big swing to Mitt, but it has no impact on the race. The big point to note is O’s number did not move, there are no Reagan Democrats in this go round. These numbers are Mitt showing to the GOP he is acceptable to them.
    In the end this race comes down to the Electoral College and realistically Mitt has no way to 271. Without OH, PA and FL, the rest is just noise.
    So, the only thing Mitt may have changed this week is that, I may not get my double digit O win prediction. But there again I see this M bounce as short-lived. Double digits will be back in play next week.

  200. Fabius Maximus says:

    Clot

    Love the new sponsor! Will they have a new booth at the Wonga Stadium were you can swap your giro for a season ticket?

    Mikey, the owner that just keeps giving!
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/david-conn-inside-sport-blog/2012/oct/09/newcastle-united-wonga-deal

  201. Fabius Maximus says:

    #207 redux

    Looks like Mitt is finally making a break for the middle ground.
    The one thing coming out of the debate is that, it gave Mitt is a reason to beat back the right and say let me run this as I am winning. In the next few weeks it looks like we will be getting CenterMitt.
    While I recognize that Chi called for this, there is a big problem causedby the headwinds from the Primary arguments. Santorum, Perry, Gingrich et al, maybe on the bus now, but their words broke the 11th commandment. If I had to pick one position that put a Mitt presidency out of reach, it would be the fact that from the primaries, he was the furthest right on Immigration, with NO way to walk it back.

  202. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [199] grim – Good and accurate write-up of Wayne demographics and neighborhoods. Might also be worth mentioning that there is a significant concentration of wealth that may fly under radar (last names that end in vowels) (union leaders).

  203. joyce says:

    Brian

    re: WF getting sued

    “The government is seeking unspecified damages and civil penalties.”

    I guess fraud is no longer a criminal offense.

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