Can the early Spring trend be sustained? Or will low inventory kill it?

From Realtor.com:

Spring Home Buying Season Starts Early According to realtor.com®’s February Trend Data

Realtor.com’s February 2013 national housing data indicates that listing inventories increased 1.15 percent month-over-month; median age of inventory was at 98 days, a 9.26 percent decrease month-over-month; and median list prices were slightly higher month-over-month at $189,900. These numbers show that home buyers are getting an early start on the spring season despite the fact that inventories recently hit record lows.

“As we enter the busiest time of the year for home buyers and sellers, our latest housing trend data shows just how competitive the market is with a significant national housing recovery well underway,” said Steve Berkowitz, chief executive officer of Move, Inc. “Looking ahead, we can expect the amount of inventory to increase this spring along with higher list prices as sellers become more comfortable with the market conditions.”

The median age of inventory was down by 9.26 percent month over month and total listings are up 1.15 percent month over month, suggesting that many reluctant home sellers are starting to take an early advantage of the recent improvements in housing prices. Annual inventory decreases of -15.97 percent are consistent with a gradual, yet persistent downward trend that has been occurring over the last two years. From January 2013 to February 2013, the median age of inventory decreased in 145 of the 146 markets tracked by realtor.com. The national median list price also reversed its downward trend, rising by 1.55 percent over the month of February and 1.01 percent on an annual basis. In addition, the number of markets experiencing a decline in home prices is shrinking, implying more good news for the housing market and U.S. economy at large.

There continue to be pronounced regional differences in the strength of the housing market. Several areas in California are experiencing the highest increases in list prices coupled with the largest inventory declines. Phoenix, Seattle and Denver are also among the top performers across the U.S. However, many smaller industrialized markets in the Midwest and the Northeast registered year-over-year price declines, as did Philadelphia, Chicago and New York City. While the number of markets experiencing year-over-year list price declines had been increasing, this pattern appears to be turning around as home list prices increased in 78 markets last month on a year-over-year basis and declined in 39.

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91 Responses to Can the early Spring trend be sustained? Or will low inventory kill it?

  1. grim says:

    From the Daily News:

    House from ‘Rocky II’ hits Philadelphia real estate market

    Hey, it’s got nice bricks — and the numbers add up to nine, “a good omen.”

    The South Philadelphia home showcased in 1979’s “Rocky II” is on the market and for cheap.

    The 90-year-old house, which Rocky and Adrian buy in the second installment of the Rocky franchise, is selling for about $140,000.

    The 1,036-square-foot home at 2313 South Lambert St. was used for only exterior shots during filming.

    “Nice mailbox,” Rocky says as the couple are shown the home, which sits in a “solid neighborhood.” “I like this mailbox.”

    The movie-starring house has been on the market since March 1. Realtor Joe Biancaniello tells the Daily News there’s been “a decent amount of showings and even a couple offers.”

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. grim says:

    Long time lurker here….I need a good source to find the taxes on neighboring properties and comparable sales in preparation for a tax appeal. Union County/Brigadoon. Suggestions?

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/prc6.cgi?menu=index&ms_user=glou&passwd=data&district=0801&mode=11

  4. Essex says:

    Housing analysts have been turning extremely bullish and a few expect home prices to rise 8 percent this year.

    Paul Diggle at Capital Economics is one of them. But the housing recovery still has some hurdles it needs to clear.

    “Capacity constraints in lenders’ mortgage departments are one of the few remaining bottlenecks in the housing recovery and one of the factors contributing to the marginal role being played by mortgage- dependent buyers,” he writes.

    While some people focus on the slow rise in residential construction employment, Diggle pays more attention to the slow pace of job growth in the real estate credit sector.

    Between 2005 – 2009, employment in the real estate credit sector fell by 45 percent, while mortgage applications fell 75 percent. Since then however, mortgage applications have “almost doubled”, according to Diggle, while job growth in the real estate credit sector has only increased by seven percent.

    Admittedly real estate credit workers tend to have a smaller role in the economy than home construction workers, but this is key to the capacity constraints among mortgage lenders, which in turn is impacting the housing recovery.

    The number of mortgage applications being processed by each employee is close to a record high. And the time taken to process a loan is also at “historically high” levels.

  5. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Home prices rise, but linger below peak levels

    U.S. property values continued to recover through January, making it the 11th consecutive month of rising prices, according to the latest FNC residential price index.

    Limited housing inventory and a drop in distressed sales both played a role in the recovery of underlying property values, FNC said.

    The FNC 100-MSA composite index revealed that January home prices increased 0.3% from the previous month, and were up 5.7% from a year earlier.

    The 30-MSA and 10-MSA composite indices reported similar trends of rising prices, with the 10-city composite index jumping 0.8% month-over-month and 7.2% year-over-year.

    While home prices have risen significantly over the past year, a six-year price comparison reveals that current prices are still well below their near-peak levels.

    Home prices today are 27.5% below peak levels set in January 2007.

  6. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    JPMorgan Sees Home Prices Up 14% as BofA Touts Party

    Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to revive housing are making real estate bulls even more bullish.

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) more than doubled its forecast for U.S. home price gains in 2013 to 7 percent this week, and predicts a more than 14 percent increase through 2015. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) said last week property values will jump 8 percent this year, up from a prior estimate of 4.7 percent in a report titled “Someone say house party?”

    The two biggest U.S. banks are predicting an accelerating rebound as homebuyers and investors rush to acquire a dwindling supply of properties and the Federal Reserve pushes down borrowing costs by buying mortgage bonds. That’s strengthening the economy and sustaining a rally in homebuilder shares after the stocks more than doubled since the end of 2011.

    “We still think we are in the early innings of a prolonged recovery in housing and the economy,” said Samantha McLemore, a money manager for Bill Miller’s $1.2 billion Legg Mason Capital Management Opportunity Trust, which has a range of holdings tied to a housing rebound and has gained 20 percent this year besting 99 percent of rivals.

    Home prices rose 6.8 percent in December from the year earlier, the biggest gain since 2006, according to the S&P/Case- Shiller home-price index of 20 cities. The measure is still 29 percent below the peak that year after soaring homeowner defaults helped trigger the global financial crisis.

    “Everyone knows that housing’s kicking into gear,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They’re just underestimating the juice that it’s going to provide to the economy,” said Zandi.

  7. Brian says:

    Make sure there is nothing listed in the field “NU#”. That means the sale is unusable.

    Pretty much every house like mine sold in the last two years in my town has a code there. Bastards.

    3.grim says:
    March 15, 2013 at 5:18 am
    Long time lurker here….I need a good source to find the taxes on neighboring properties and comparable sales in preparation for a tax appeal. Union County/Brigadoon. Suggestions?

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/prc6.cgi?menu=index&ms_user=glou&passwd=data&district=0801&mode=11

  8. Brian says:

    I’ve been going to zillow, searching for my own property, then sorting by recent sales. Then going to the NJ Tax assesment database for details. If you have a friend with a NJMLS login it’s a bit easier.

  9. Brian says:

    “Remember, you make 100% of your gains on a Real Estate Purchase on the day you purchase property. ”

    So true. Anyone buying a house should live and die by that advice.

  10. yome says:

    Underwater owners current helped by HARP 2 are staying foot. Only will be sellers are fully paid homes and houses bought 20 years ago sitting on huge equity. Flush with cash are the only would be sellers.Who says home prices will come down when boomers sell their homes? Underwater recepient of HARP 2 will take a few years before they see equity and become sellers. Flush with cash and foreclosure is the only game.

  11. grim says:

    Love the imagery, from Bloomberg:

    GIs Fighting Nazis Last Time Factory Workers Toiled Longer

    The last time U.S. factory workers put in longer weeks than they averaged in February, Rosie the Riveter was on the assembly line and American GIs were fighting Nazis in Europe.

    All those extra hours helped to drive five straight months of manufacturing growth in the U.S., racking up 52,000 new factory jobs, according to Labor Department data. That includes 14,000 positions in February alone.

    Production workers averaged 41.9 hours a week in February, Labor Department data showed last week. That tied December 1997 and January 1998 as the most since May 1944, when full wartime production was pulling more women into factories, as symbolized by the Rosie the Riveter character in posters, song and film. The record was 45.4 hours in January and February 1944.

  12. grim says:

    “Remember, you make 100% of your gains on a Real Estate Purchase on the day you purchase property. ”

    It’s a nice thought, but it’s rarely so simple. From the Daily Record:

    33,000 more homes in N.J. added to FEMA flood map

    An additional 33,000-plus residential buildings in New Jersey are now considered to be in a flood zone under federal maps adopted by the state.

    The homes were not considered to be in a flood zone under outdated Federal Emergency Management Agency maps, according to the state Department of Community Affairs’ superstorm Sandy disaster recovery plan, released this week.

    The state has adopted FEMA’s Advisory Base Flood Elevation maps, which some officials and homeowners contend are inaccurate and would require many homes to be elevated.

  13. Juice Box says:

    Federal Grand Jury investigating Menendez.
    Nothing to see here folks.

  14. JJ says:

    Speaking of ICC from that NJ article, My poor neighbor got sucked into hiring a private insurance adjuster. He got her paid out at around 60% of value of home. SHE IS FURIOUS!!!!! Now she gets an ICC letter that FEMA paid out more than 50% of value of home so she has to raise it at a cost of 130K or face her flood insurance going from 3K a year to 9k a year. That guy knew that would happen, but he got paid an extra 3k. Could care less it would cost her 100K +

    Lots of the folks in that article from NJ about flood houses in ICC are a result of adjusters. No one in their right mind would every submit a claim greater than 49% and less than 70% of home value.

    In real estate as well as purchasing insurance, it is always the decision you make the day you buy a home or take out policy that protects you. .

    In regards to buying flood house, two identical homes with same exact 60% damage are worth two different amounts.

    The home near me that was unoccupied between tenants the day of Sandy and did not have flood insurance and got 60% damage is a great buy. No FEMA claim, No Flood Claim, no records in town. One can buy repair with off the books folks get cheap flood insurance and do well.

    Same home with flood insurance with 60% damage. Prior owner got a check. Home is tagged and bagged ICC, must be raised or face high insurance rates. Home is tagged by town and mortgage companies as a flood home and building inspectors are snooping around.

    Even those flood houses you make all your money on the day you buy.

    By not having flood insurance, it turns out I have a Sandy Free House.
    grim says:
    March 15, 2013 at 7:07 am

    “Remember, you make 100% of your gains on a Real Estate Purchase on the day you purchase property. ”

    It’s a nice thought, but it’s rarely so simple. From the Daily Record:

  15. grim says:

    Even those flood houses you make all your money on the day you buy.

    Except when the property you bought wasn’t flood the day you bought it.

    Anecdotally, flood properties in NNJ will sell for 30-40% less than their non-flood counterparts, I’m talking about identical homes on similarly sized lots. The only time this didn’t hold true, was during the bubble, when buyers were idiots. I am not talking about destroyed/Sandy properties.

    Having your property moved into flood after paying the non-flood price is pure disaster. Even if the house NEVER saw water.

    I know some folks in previously non-flood areas of Fairfield, who never got flooded (but water did get close), who stand a VERY high chance of being included in the upcoming flood maps for NNJ (that have not yet been released). If they get moved into flood, all of their equity will be instantly vaporized.

    Flood is such a stigma in NJ, that some MLS systems have resorted to removing the flood zone field from the MLS reports, as most buyers/agents would simply ignore those listings (probably appropriately so).

  16. yome says:

    According CNN Money Home Affordability Calculator
    A family making $150,000 with no debt,No Down, 3.6% interest rate mortgage with $14,000 property tax will be able to afford a home;Conservative $491,225 ;Aggressive $628,695.

    Same numbers with $1000 monthly debt; Conservative $491,225 ; Aggressive $546,213

    Forget 2x pay at this low rate 3x pay is the new conservative

    How many starting families making $150k in BC?

    http://cgi.money.cnn.com/tools/houseafford/houseafford.html

  17. yome says:

    With a down payment new conservative is 4x the price of a house

  18. JJ says:

    That is partially because realtors and buyers are poorly educated on buying and selling a home in a flood zone. Take this example. Grim, you might even learn something.

    All three homes are in flood zone AEX, all three will pay $390 flood prem after closing. Now lets say all three are identical and for sale and all three are in perfect shape. What would you pay?

    House One, filed a flood claim in Irene and filed a flood claim in Sandy bother greater than 5k and less than 50% of value of home.

    House two, never filed a flood claim but got the Sandy FEMA pay out.

    House three, never a flood claim somehow managed to get within 1/10 of an inch of water in house but no flood damage in Sandy

    Now lets look closer at three homes that all pay $390 a year flood

    House one with two prior flood claims. FEMA has a three strikes your are out policy for claims great than 5k. So house one gets flood in excess of 5k and you file a claim it is a repetitive flood house and you are ICC, either raise it or pay 9K a year flood

    House two, never a claim but you have to have flood insurance. If you let flood laspe the once in a lifetime FEMA payment is done. Flood comes you get paid, plus you have two lives worth since house never had a flood.

    House three, same as house one, you claim and have two lives left. However, house one you are legally allowed not to have flood insurance as long as no mortgage. You can roll dice with no flood insurance as you will get first $31,900 of damage covered by FEMA.

    Realtors will just tell folks and most buyers will think all three houses pay $390 a year flood so all three houses the same. Very far from the truth.

    grim says:
    March 15, 2013 at 7:48 am

    Even those flood houses you make all your money on the day you buy.

    Except when the property you bought wasn’t flood the day you bought it.

  19. JJ says:

    I laugh at the 150K number. Redcross told me in Sandy that impoverished low income poor folk are entitled to extra grants, used furniture, help with paying food bills as they are very low income. The form clearly stated 0-199K a year income is low income.

    150K is an income for a family you are at the food bank and poor enough to get volunteers to come to your house and wear used clothes.

    yome says:
    March 15, 2013 at 8:02 am

    According CNN Money Home Affordability Calculator
    A family making $150,000 with no debt,No Down, 3.6% interest rate mortgage with $14,000 property tax will be able to afford a home;Conservative $491,225 ;Aggressive $628,695.

    Same numbers with $1000 monthly debt; Conservative $491,225 ; Aggressive $546,213

    Forget 2x pay at this low rate 3x pay is the new conservative

    How many starting families making $150k in BC?

  20. Juice Box says:

    re #11 – just a blip on the radar. Manufacturing jobs won’t come back for various reasons.

    MIT Report below.

    http://www.manufacturingnews.com/news/mit0305131.html

  21. joyce says:

    16-17

    Why the F are we encouraging more and more and greater amounts of household debt/leverage?

    Have we (excluding you of course) learned nothing from the recent past?

  22. joyce says:

    Not to mention when you reference 3-4x income as the new normal compared to 1-2.5x of the past… First, as Grim points out, those ratios applied to the non-existent (in NJ) ‘meadian home.’ And second, the overall cost of living, the cost of everything else (food, energy, education, all the different taxes, everything…) is considerably higher than the past.

    Anyone claiming these ratios makes sense for the majority of individuals is delusional.

  23. joyce says:

    (19)

    Dude, come up with some new material for christs sake

  24. yome says:

    JJ
    With your $200,000 income

    A family making $200,000 with no debt,No Down, 3.6% interest rate mortgage with $14,000 property tax will be able to afford a home;Conservative $747,835 Aggressive $931,128

    With a down payment that price of a home rises

  25. yome says:

    Joyce
    1-2.5x income you are referring to is at more than 6% interest rates. At this low rates this is what it equals to.

    This is what the calculator says
    “To arrive at an “affordable” home price, we followed the guidelines of most lenders. We’ve allowed a total debt-to-income ratio of no more than 36 percent. And we have assumed a housing payment-to-income ratio of 28% for our conservative estimate, and 33 percent for the aggressive one. Before buying, however, you should also factor in other savings needs, including retirement and college.”

    Dont blame the messenger

  26. Sdfi says:

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  27. joyce says:

    You’re not listening. In your looney tunes mind, the principal amount is immaterial and all the matters is the monthly debt service. Good luck with that strategy.

  28. JJ says:

    How does my income have anything to do a price of a home?

    Am I supposed to buy a car, buy stocks etc. at a higher price cause I have more income?

    I am fighting tooth and nail with realtor right now on price. Right now home is priced at .70 of annual income. I think that is over priced. I would like to pay .60 of income.

    yome says:
    March 15, 2013 at 8:39 am

    JJ
    With your $200,000 income

    A family making $200,000 with no debt,No Down, 3.6% interest rate mortgage with $14,000 property tax will be able to afford a home;Conservative $747,835 Aggressive $931,128

    With a down payment that price of a home rises

  29. yome says:

    The calculator is there to guide you on what is affordable for your income.As you go lower than conservative the better of you are.I went with 20% ratio.Nobody is saying buy more home than you need.The numbers are your safe grounds

  30. Ottoman says:

    Go to the Property Sales link in the Data Universe for sales in your town. You can sort by price, date, etc.

    http://www.app.com/section/DATA/DataUniverse

  31. yome says:

    Paulson Says He Has No Plans to Relocate to Puerto Rico

  32. JJ says:

    Your income is a silly measure, you could get disabled, fired, die tomorrow.

    A better measure is purchase price to rental price. Folks got in trouble near me in boom because they bought junky houses for 600K, with 12 property tax that only rented for $2,800 a month. When they could no longer make payments they could not just rent it out and in turn rent a smaller place or move in with Mom and Dad for awhile. Those places back in days of 6% mortgages and 5% down were costing them 4K a month, and only rented for $2.800 a month.

    My current home for instance, I am not worried at all that prices fell a lot near me since RE crash and Sandy. Costs me a little under $1,000 a month to carry and I could rent for like $2,300. However, neighbors who bought at peak even with a HAMP/HARP loan refinance, a home bought even 25% down at peak of Spring 2007 is still a nightmare.

    yome says:
    March 15, 2013 at 8:58 am

    The calculator is there to guide you on what is affordable for your income.As you go lower than conservative the better of you are.I went with 20% ratio.Nobody is saying buy more home than you need.The numbers are your safe grounds

  33. 30 year realtor says:

    jj #28 – said “I am fighting tooth and nail with realtor right now on price.” Is there a seller? You have entirely the wrong notion about who you are negotiating with. You made this crystal clear in another comment you made yesterday about an agent trying to get a $15,000 higher purchase price to earn a rotten additional $225. You are the fool! Agent couldn’t give a damn about the additional $225 in commission or what you pay for your condo. Agent only cares about making a deal!

    If I make a deal I get paid. No deal I don’t get paid! JJ, get a clue about what is really going on before you continue top blow more hot air. Only ones who care about the ultimate closing price are buyers and sellers.

  34. yome says:

    JJ
    I totally agree.I always compared my mortgage to what I was paying in rent before I bought my house.When income tripled mortgage was peanut.
    Again the calculator is there to guide you.It is what lenders parameter use

    I did not mean $200k was your income,it is your statement 0-$199k was i am refering to

  35. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [28];

    I am fighting tooth and nail with realtor right now on price.

    Give her the Hammer & Tongs, JJ!

  36. maybe buyer says:

    I don’t know what will happen this spring but it’s pretty obvious what will happen next springs

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/14/business/stagnant-wealth-for-younger-generations.html

    be serious, forget hearsay and look at the data

  37. Anon E. Moose says:

    yo [34];

    When income tripled mortgage was peanut.

    That’s a comforting assumption. How’s income growth been recently? Not you personally/anecdotally, but across a broad spectrum of individuals? Not so good, I think.

  38. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    “With a down payment new conservative is 4x the price of a house”

    Home owners better have 75k rainy day fund in the bank to be able to make the monthly nut in case one cannot find a job for 12 months.

    That does not include costs for Graydon and Ellory.

  39. maybe buyer says:

    This calculator is misleading if not dangerous

    If the house costs more then not only taxes are higher but maintenance as well but the calc does not adjust. It does not take into account maintenance costs nor future tax+maint increases that income cannot follow. According to this calc it is fine to spend more than half of your take home income to housing hahaha. Ask around.

    seller, realtor or just a troll??

  40. maybe buyer says:

    Ask around. I bet noone here spends half of take home income to housing (mortgage, taxes, maint+util).

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume, Scungilli Chef Extraordinaire says:

    [1] grim,

    “The house is “located on a lovely tree-lined street within walking distance to Girard Park,” the post says.

    That’s supposed to be a selling point???

    I know that neighborhood. I once walked through there a week before the Super Bowl game betwixt the Patriots and Eagles, wearing my Patriots hat. Only one guy even noticed and gave me some good-natured smack (nothing mean, in fact downright nice by South Philly standards).

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume, Scungilli Chef Extraordinaire says:

    [38] all-hype

    We are going more conservative than that. Capping out at 3X.

  43. Ottoman says:

    “I am fighting tooth and nail with realtor right now on price. ”

    Why don’t you tell her to call you when she gets another offer and leave it at that. And mail the seller a note thanking them for considering yours, just in case she’s not clueing them in.

  44. Comrade Nom Deplume, Scungilli Chef Extraordinaire says:

    [31] yome,

    I think the story I posted suggested as much. He is such a NYC guy that it seemed utterly improbable.

    That said, I think that there may be a very useful tax dodge that could be employed here, using the PR tax laws. It must be remembered that US citizens moving to PR don’t lose citizenship but do get the benefits of preferred tax treatment. So I can see future expatriates using PR for a tax dodge that works like this:

    1. Move to PR and establish residency.
    2. Sell cap gain investments to get preferential tax treatment
    3. Move elsewhere and renounce citizenship.

    This gets you around the HEART Act exit tax since it applies only to unrealized gains at the time you renounce citizenship. And you actually improve your position because you avoid taxes on the realized gains.

    This is subject to confirming that US citizens who reside in PR are not subject to US federal income taxes because they are taxed by PR as PR residents. I believe this is the case but I don’t know because I never needed to know this.

    Also, unless the taxpayer resided in PR for some time, IRS and PR would almost certainly challenge it as a tax dodge. So there cannot be any suggestion that expatriation was planned at the time, and there must be investment in PR to show intent to move and invest there.

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume, sick of scungilli says:

    [32] JJ

    “A better measure is purchase price to rental price. ”

    Totally agree, again.

    Jeezus, I’m beginning to think the only difference between me and JJ is where we work and how many notches we have on our bedposts (JJ’s must look like a beaver went to town on it. And yes, pun intended).

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  47. yome says:

    Nom,
    Yes.This will work until congress figures a way to stop this.And being in a like 3rd world country is another story.

  48. Comrade Nom Deplume, sick of scungilli says:

    Saw this on a t-shirt ad on line:

    “The hardest thing about the Zombie Apocalypse is pretending that I’m not excited.”

    Immediately thought of Scrapple Cannon.

  49. Comrade Nom Deplume, sick of scungilli says:

    [48] yome,

    Not sure it is easily stopped. Congress lets territories set their own tax policies and residents are not really citizens when it comes to taxes and voting, but they are citizens because they haven’t renounced.

    I could see an effort to apply the HEART Act to people who move to PR, USVI, etc., but I would expect a lot of pushback from the territories on that since their policies are intended to attract investment, something that Congress supports.

    I think that, in the end, my idea that IRS will essentially disagree with anyone who expatriates after a stint in PR, is the route taken. You have to figure that this is already a very small subset of the populace and the USG doesn’t want to slam any more door shut—the sound tends to scare the wealthy closer to the exits.

  50. JJ says:

    A day after Sandy I saw a black van headed south on Long Beach road with FEMA trucks and national Guard Humvees labled Zombie Apocalypse Response Team

    It was in big letters, he had all this weird equipment. He was looking for Zombies down in Long Beach the day after Sandy, I guess a good opportunity

    “The hardest thing about the Zombie Apocalypse is pretending that I’m not excited.”

  51. Comrade Nom Deplume. Apparently. says:

    [51] JJ

    The zombie apocalypse has been addressed on the CDC website, and the Canadian Parliament has pledged that it will address this threat.

    So it must be real!

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume. Apparently. says:

    [52] redux

    Timing is everything. Saw a cartoon in the paper today, showing a girl breaking up with a vampire and a smiling zombie standing nearby. She was saying “I’m sorry but zombies are the new vampires.”

  53. Comrade Nom Deplume. Apparently. says:

    Apparently, I am behind the curve. Again.

    http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1890384,00.html

    The last paragraph is oh-so-relevant for this place.

  54. joyce says:

    “[Greenspan] also seemed to dismiss the idea that the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program is responsible for driving stocks higher.”

    http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/15/investing/greenspan-irrational-exuberance/index.html?iid=HP_LN

    Maybe he should check with Bernanke who likes to brag about how what he did is causing the wealth effect…

  55. Libtard in Union says:

    On the affordability calculator,

    When we prequalified for our first home mortgage (what a crock that was) banks offered us a cool million, which represented between 4 and 5 times our income. Had we listened, we would have been seriously underwater, even with the 20% we put down on our multi. Be careful!

  56. joyce says:

    Libtard,

    Were they trying to loan you money for the purchase price, renovation, new car, and for the jet you had your eye on?

  57. JJ says:

    Joyce, did you every refinance? what rate did you get?

    joyce says:
    March 15, 2013 at 12:31 pm

    Libtard,

    Were they trying to loan you money for the purchase price, renovation, new car, and for the jet you had your eye on?

  58. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [56];

    Funny thing, when I started house-shopping, I knew what I wanted to put down; I knew I had good credit; I knew what the prevailing rates were; I knew how to calculate my own PITI; and I knew what monthly payment I was comfortable with. Based on that, I back-calculated into a price range. The mortgage guy never told me what I could be approved for; I gave him an application with a house/bid already in mind, all I expected from him was a simple yes/rate/pre-qual letter.

    It would never have occurred to me to ask a lender how much house I can afford (thought I know many people do).

  59. joyce says:

    I don’t know if that’s supposed to be a joke or what. I have not now, nor in the recent past, refinanced or was ever looking to do so.

    58.JJ says:
    March 15, 2013 at 12:36 pm
    Joyce, did you every refinance? what rate did you get?

    joyce says:
    March 15, 2013 at 12:31 pm

    Libtard,

    Were they trying to loan you money for the purchase price, renovation, new car, and for the jet you had your eye on?

  60. Brian says:

    Speaking of Refi….can anyone recomend a bank? The credit union rates aren’t that great, I’d like to shop around.

  61. JJ says:

    What is lowest rates you are seeing?

    Brian says:
    March 15, 2013 at 1:30 pm

    Speaking of Refi….can anyone recomend a bank? The credit union rates aren’t that great, I’d like to shop around.

  62. Libtard in Union says:

    Brian,

    Use a broker. Go to those broker consolidation sites and get the lowest APR. Then call Carl Nielsen at Mortgage Masters in Wayne. He’ll match or beat it and he’s no nonsense. You’ll never find a local bank that will beat the best internet rates. I know it doesn’t make sense that it’s cheaper through a middleman, but the banks don’t want to deal with the loan origination (you) and all of the questions, etc. So they end up buying the mortgage from the broker for much less than you could get it for going directly to the bank. The biggest originators get the best rates. Carl is simply a monster. And the people in his office are really cool. Just don’t expect a lot of hand holding. The number he gives you when you call will match the number at the close to the penny. No-nonsense, like JJ.

  63. Libtard in Union says:

    Tell him Stu sent you and occasionally he’ll shoot me some Devil tickets.

    http://www.mortgagemaster.com/cnielsen/

  64. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    but the banks don’t want to deal with the loan origination (you)

    That made me chuckle.

  65. JJ says:

    I am trying to get a 1.68% 30 year fixed, no fees, no points. Can Carl Nielsen beat that?

    My brother in law back in the day got his mortgage from his old guy who did mortgages. He did them out of living room, all he needed was address, look you in eye, shake you hand and he wrote you a check. CHEAP CHEAP interest rates no fees.

    Only trouble was he only did single family homes in rich desirable neighborhoods and you had to put 20% down. He charged a low rate as he would foreclose on you in a split second, he side business was siezing and selling homes.

    Libtard in Union says:
    March 15, 2013 at 1:45 pm

    Brian,

    Use a broker. Go to those broker consolidation sites and get the lowest APR. Then call Carl Nielsen at Mortgage Masters in Wayne. He’ll match or beat it and he’s no nonsense. You’ll never find a local bank that will beat the best internet rates. I know it doesn’t make sense that it’s cheaper through a middleman, but the banks don’t want to deal with the loan origination (you) and all of the questions, etc. So they end up buying the mortgage from the broker for much less than you could get it for going directly to the bank. The biggest originators get the best rates. Carl is simply a monster. And the people in his office are really cool. Just don’t expect a lot of hand holding. The number he gives you when you call will match the number at the close to the penny. No-nonsense, like JJ.

  66. Comrade Nom Deplume. Apparently. says:
  67. Comrade Nom Deplume. Apparently. says:
  68. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [64];

    How’d you enjoy my game? ;-)

  69. Libtard in Union says:

    JJ, you would love this guy. He doesn’t use a calculator and he doesn’t BS at all. He’s a really tall (must be 6’7 or 6’8) skinny guy with a very gruff voice, black leather coat, etc. He doesn’t care how your family is or anything about the new home, etc. His office is pretty dumpy though it has a pretty amazing view. It’s simple. How much you putting down, how long is the term and how much you need? Once he throws you a number you never see him again. That’s how it ought to be. Then you fax or email in your income verification and show up at the close. He won’t be there. He just gives out the numbers. He has a partner (trainee) that does the small beans stuff like HELOCs. Guy is identical to Carl.

    And the other reason brokers can be cheaper than banks is that they get wholesale pricing on the loans from the bank. You can’t do that yourself. Unless you’re JJ.

  70. Libtard in Union says:

    You’re game? Is that a Hedberg reference?

  71. Libtard in Union says:

    Your game. Oy vey!

  72. JJ says:

    I like him already. Hopefully, he is smelly I dont want to be paying for his soap and stuff

    Libtard in Union says:
    March 15, 2013 at 2:22 pm

    JJ, you would love this guy. He doesn’t use a calculator and he doesn’t BS at all. He’s a really tall (must be 6’7 or 6’8) skinny guy with a very gruff voice, black leather coat, etc. He doesn’t care how your family is or anything about the new home, etc. His office is pretty dumpy though it has a pretty amazing view. It’s simple. How much you putting down, how long is the term and how much you need? Once he throws you a number you never see him again. That’s how it ought to be. Then you fax or email in your income verification and show up at the close. He won’t be there. He just gives out the numbers. He has a partner (trainee) that does the small beans stuff like HELOCs. Guy is identical to Carl.

    And the other reason brokers can be cheaper than banks is that they get wholesale pricing on the loans from the bank. You can’t do that yourself. Unless you’re JJ.

  73. Juice Box says:

    Realtor today told me inventory is the lowest in 35 years. Hardly
    Anything new coming up either in the pipeline.
    Spring Selling season a bust already?

  74. Painhrtz - Doc Daneeka says:

    Nom well I did a couple of graduate classes across the street from their practice facility so if there is something wrong witht he water it would explain a lot on my end.

    nom I also contend that their is a way to bilk the government for millions with some ill concieved transparency technology ala solyndra. Know any good lobbyists? I could probably come up with some fancy sounding medical software to form a national medical record data base. I started ont he ground work years ago jsut need to sell it to uncle sam and cash out.

  75. JJ says:

    Inventory is always the same. He is talking about MLS homes for sale.

    Juice Box says:
    March 15, 2013 at 2:42 pm

    Realtor today told me inventory is the lowest in 35 years. Hardly
    Anything new coming up either in the pipeline.
    Spring Selling season a bust already?

  76. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    Realtor today told me inventory is the lowest in 35 years. Hardly
    Anything new coming up either in the pipeline.
    Spring Selling season a bust already?

    Yet, miraculously, houses are going under contract like crazy!! Like crazy!! The housing market is robust and there’s lotsa interest!! Those transacations are happening, us schlubs are just not privy to it. They only houses we get to see are the ones no one wants at a price tag that can only be accepted if one has been drinking heavily. They’re hoping you’ll fall into the s.ucka pool and bite on one of those over-priced piles of sh1t.

  77. grim says:

    55 BC SFH into atty review today. Average list price $607k, average dom 70

  78. Anon E. Moose says:

    My in-laws’ (dare I say it, POS) cape in Nassau got a 95% offer first weekend on the market.

  79. We are but sheep being led to slaughter. This whole thing ends in the gnashing of teeth.

  80. I raise your POS cape one sawed-off shotgun and one Arsenal victory against a top team when the result doesn’t matter.

  81. I’ll take sawed-off shotguns for $200, Alex.

  82. This whole spring and nicer weather thing is a big gubmint fake-out.

    Winter forever.

  83. Juice Box says:

    Anecdotal but I will share anyway. We both took today off to scour the area we are interested in. It’s almost Spring right time to get a jump? We finally saw a clean and presentable house today. Deer in the backyard when we pulled up in the driveway to look, I am no gardner so they can eat away. Only thing(s) really needed updating was the 2nd floor bath and the MBR only had a shower. Minor water issue in basement, when power goes out extended like Sandy the sump can’t pump. A few inches standing water in the sump today not the end of the world since house was over 3,200 sq ft on main and second floor. Initial price was a high 7 handle, but dropped a week later by 50k of initial price. Owner seems to be an ex-engineer from the telecom industry, in other words a logical reasonable owner. House was staged for us and from my discerning eye I could tell the homeowner was meticulous about everything in this 30 yr old house. Nothing overlooked from what my wondering eye could see, even the garage was clean and organized My wife did not like it but I do which is a good sign. How do I convince her that we should make an offer? She is ready to give up, too many episodes of fixer uppers on HDTV and she is scared senseless from all of the crap we have seen in the 7 handle range.

  84. grim says:

    MBR tub is overrated, I know plenty of owners who have *never* used the MBR tub, especially if it is one of those multi-person jetted tubs. If it’s up for a redo, you can go crazy on the shower – body sprays, ceiling mount rain shower. We had a small MBR and we made pretty good use of the space basically doing the same. We’re not tub people (although that’ll change with the little one). The new bath in the basement will have a tub though, mostly because I cry a little when my wife washes the dogs in my carrera marble tub on the main floor.

    Water in the sump now? Not sure I’d be so concerned, we had some big snow and rain. My sump finally has water in it, I nearly shit myself when I heard the pump trip. Two years and a small fortune later, it finally works. Basement is dry as a bone now. Take a good look around the basement, check the bases of the lolly columns, stair stringers for signs of water. It’s easy to change everything else. Old wood panels in the basement is usually a good sign, they’ll almost always fray at the bottom if the basement ever had water, and that shit hasn’t been around for 30 years now. So if the base looks clean, it’s a good sign no water.

    Dated but meticulous is usually a good sign.

    7 handle though? Yeah that sucks.

  85. The only body spray that will be practical or useful in the future is the kind Meryl Streep used in Silkwood.

    Forty years in the wilderness. No shortcuts, no do-overs.

  86. In the end, we will all be living like the extras in Waterworld.

  87. maybe buyer says:

    I think that dated but good bones home but reasonably priced is the only thing one could hope for in this mkt. Go ahead juice (if you need to move like me)

  88. Juice Box says:

    re # 85 Grim – price paid 30 years ago was 179k when built. It has had updating except for bathrooms mentioned. There is not much moving there now in the 7 handle range. Some comps are two and three years old, realtor says inventory has not been this thin in 35 years.

    Anecdotal again but we saw everything listed over the last month. When the homeowners are home on a Friday for one house we viewed today you can tell that many are unemployed empty nests, Boomers with grandkids. The pictures are always out for display. Most will answer any question you ask. I cringe when they say they updated 1982 to 2000 and expect us to think it’s updated, hard to tell them the kitchen of 1998 is not 2013. Lots of ex-Manhattan commuters never getting a job in Manhattan again. They missed their window as their kids were still in high school during the housing bubble. Lots of smart people. One today ex-Wall guy home on a Friday. I could tell he was day trading to make a living by the Cramer bobble head in his office and the flat panel computer screens that were still warm when we got there. He retreated when we arrived but came back to pitch the schools when we were leaving. He has dropped his price a few times few so he told me with a wall st wink.

    Plenty of stories, none too sad yet, at least no widows and children getting tossed to the curb by the evil banks.

    The more I think about it the more I want to build my own place, this way in 30 years some punk can come along and insult me with his offer.

  89. Dan in debt says:

    Water world? Clot are you trying to help Obama pass climate change legislation?

  90. Phoenix says:

    Every time I try to take cash out of my bank they give me a hard time. This must be why.
    Can’t a guy buy a car anymore without getting grief?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/usa-banks-spying-idINDEE92C0EH20130313

  91. Phoenix says:

    And yes, my bank (Commerce Bank at the time) actually had the stones to ask me why I wanted to take out money. Then they proceeded to tell me they did not have any and to come back tomorrow. Banks don’t seem to want to handle cash anymore.

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