What’s Normal?

From the WSJ:

Housing Sector 56% Back to Normal

If the housing recovery were a home, the foundation, framing, roof, windows and siding would all be in place. Now the industry has to complete the second half of its return to normal. This is where progress can slow down.

Despite some March setbacks that could be weather-related, housing construction and demand look firmly in recovery. The latest piece of news was the 1.5% rise of new-home sales in March and the continued increase in home prices through February.

These trends are just as the Federal Reserve intended when it aimed to bring long-term interest rates down. Better housing activity helps the overall economy, and consumer spending benefits from rising home prices and the ability to refinance mortgages.

According to calculations by housing website Trulia, the housing sector is 56% back to normal. Trulia compares the current levels of starts, existing-home sales, and the rate of delinquencies and foreclosures versus their worst readings of the recession and their prebubble normal levels.

Of course, “normal” is subjective. Like other sectors, housing faces a New Normal in the post-Great Recession world. But a year ago, housing was only one-third of the way back, says Trulia, “so the last year has been a significant recovery.”

But just as with any recovery, the second stage is harder. Progress will be more incremental.

In March, Fed governor Elizabeth Duke expressed worries that strict lending standards could limit the housing recovery.

“I expect [housing] demand to come from a pickup in new household formation, but I also recognize that these households may be the very population that faces especially tight credit conditions,” she said.

Second, future demand will depend on job and income growth picking up. But the U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, which may mean weaker hiring this spring as well–perhaps not as dismal as March’s 88,000-job gain, but less than 200,000 a month.

The challenges do not look strong enough to derail housing. But the journey to the New Normal will not be smooth nor quick.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

88 Responses to What’s Normal?

  1. grim says:

    Continuing the topic from yesterday, I ran across this chart of institutional investors in housing by metro:


  2. grim says:

    From the Washington Post:

    Foreclosures and delinquencies on the decline

    The number of properties in the foreclosure process nationwide continues to decline, according to a report released Tuesday by LPS Applied Analytics, a market research company.

    Not only that, the total number of delinquent mortgages and foreclosures is below 5 million for the first time since 2008, when the housing crisis began. A delinquent mortgage is one where the homeowner is 30 or more days overdue on a payment.

    The number of properties in the foreclosure process is the lowest since April 2009, according to the report. That is a decline of more than 19 percent compared to just a year ago.

    Most of the bad loans from the crisis have made their way through the foreclosure process, said Herb Blecher, senior vice president of LPS.

    “We’re seeing new loan originations are of high quality and there’s not a lot of new problem loans entering the system,” he said.

    States with the highest number of delinquent mortgages or foreclosure cases are those that have elaborate foreclosure processes, Blecher said. The list includes Florida, New Jersey, New York and Nevada.

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. grim says:

    From Marketwatch:

    FHFA house price index climbs 0.7% in February

    U.S. home prices rose 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Tuesday. In the 12 months ended in February, home prices were up 7.1%, though they are still 13.6% below the index’s April 2007 peak. The FHFA index has not declined in any month since January 2012.

  5. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Housing Rebound in U.S. Hampered by Own Success as Costs Climb

    Even as U.S. housing rebounds from its worst downturn since the 1930s, production bottlenecks are pushing up building-materials costs, land prices are rising and skilled labor ready to begin work is hard to find.

    Suppliers of glass, drywall and wood products, who reduced output during the slump, are testing the vigor of the rebound by boosting prices before committing to restore capacity. Builders, including Lennar Corp. (LEN), Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) and KB Home, are asking homebuyers for more money as a result or are delaying sales, posing a temporary hurdle for the industry that has become one of the pillars of the economic expansion.

    Building-material manufacturers “are raising prices dramatically, and once they’re convinced that these prices are going to stick, they’ll start reinvesting in those plants,” helping ease supply constraints, said John Burns, chairman of Irvine, California-based John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which provides research to developers, construction-product manufacturers and investors. “Those can take a year to get up and running.”

    At just about every turn, builders are paying more for materials. The wholesale cost of softwood lumber climbed 30 percent in the year ended March, data from the Labor Department show. Oriented strand board, or wood particle board, surged 68 percent, while gypsum products such as sheetrock climbed 18 percent.

  6. Brian says:


    MANTOLOKING — Having gotten only so far with “friendly persuasion,” the Jersey shore community that was hardest hit by Superstorm Sandy is ready to take out the stick.

    Mantoloking is preparing to use eminent domain to take control of small strips of land from oceanfront homeowners who are holding up a critically needed beach replenishment project.

    The storm-decimated borough hired an attorney today to start condemnation proceedings against a handful of holdouts who won’t sign easements that would allow federal officials to carry out the work. And it plans to publicly release the names of the holdouts within the next week if they don’t change their minds and sign.

    “A selfish and short-sighted group of people are going to cost this town a lot of money,” said Councilman Steve Gillingham. “We’re moving from the friendly persuasion approach we’ve been taking to some assertive legal action. The town will be releasing the names of this small, but difficult group.”

    The work is desperately needed in Mantoloking, which saw every one of its 521 homes damaged, with scores destroyed. It would pay compensation for any land taken.

    Mayor George Nebel predicts only four or five residents will ultimately refuse to sign. He says the town has no choice if it wants to survive.

    “We’ve got to get those,” he said.

    Nebel said Mantoloking has either signed easements or verbal commitments from 121 of 128 oceanfront homeowners.

  7. grim says:

    Ok, I’m just going to come out and come clean here, I don’t at all understand college basketball.

    Rutgers paying a basketball coach $6 million dollars over 5 years? This … after paying the last coaches millions to leave their jobs? This, separate from the cumulative millions they are paying out to assistant coaches, athletic directors, etc? And we’re not even yet talking about travel, other costs and expenses, stadiums, etc. Suppose the same could be said for Sciano(sp?) and the football team.

    How much money does the Rutgers basketball team generate on an annual basis? Are they even good? I’ve got to admit, I’ve never heard anyone on ESPN mention Rutgers and Basketball together outside of the recent scandal.

    Just seems silly, you can’t buy yourself a good team, like you can in pro sports (yeah yeah), because you can’t compensate the best players, they are just going to go to the top/winning schools. If you aren’t winning, you don’t stand a chance at the top (short of a hail mary/long shot).

    Ok, jesus, the last time the team did well was 1976.

  8. Essex says:

    College basketball is a lot like religion. The fewer questions you ask the better. Go Cats.

  9. DL says:

    The publicity from the scandals is worth it weight in admission applications.

  10. DL says:

    Thus shouldn’t be surprising when the banks own all the homes.

    Number of homes entering foreclosure plunges in California.

  11. DL says:

    Wonder what kind of getaway car they drove?

    Five years later, woman gets her stolen house back.

  12. grim says:

    11 – Nah – just new foreclosures laws making the process tougher and longer. I’d say almost all of the decline is due to the new restriction on “dual-tracking”.


  13. grim says:

    Cooper Union charging tuition? The tuition bubble has got to be popping.

  14. Hughesrep says:


    Welcome to the Big Ten, or fourteen.

    Rutgers will get boatloads of money to get their a$$e$ kicked on an annual basis. A few million for the coach is to make it look like they are trying to be competitive.

    Hell, I’m considering buying football season tickets so I can watch the Buckeyes in person every other year. I figure I can sell the rest and maybe break even.

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    Of course, “normal” is subjective. Like other sectors, housing faces a New Normal in the post-Great Recession world.

    No, it’s not subjective. And there’s no such thing as New Normal. This is a version of financial pol1tical correctness to accommodate the weak and stup1d. Let the market devour the pretenders and THEN we may head in the direction to normal.

  16. gary, it will be a Ponzi for the rest of our lives.

    I’m going to take up pot-smoking and slacking. It’s all over for us. The bill will be paid by our grandchildren.

  17. I just realized I’m in chronic (heh, heh) pain. ;)

    What’s the fastest way to Montklair from Hunterdon?

  18. DL says:

    If these numbers are anywhere close, I’ll be priced out of my comfort zone before anything we like comes on the market.

    Mr. Kim upgraded his view on the sector to positive, from neutral. He predicts that home prices, which spent several years in a downward spiral, will climb 10% in 2013 and 8% in 2014. He also points out that developed land is scarce and mortgage rates remain low, helping make buying more affordable than renting in many markets.

  19. Painhrtz - Doc Daneeka says:

    scrapple yellow submarine

  20. JJ says:

    Realtor I Spoke to said last Sunday’s National Open House day was a big success. Lots of folks who looked and came back for second looks or brought wife or parents back a second time.

    Also said market is a lot better than Dec-Feb when buyers were still hunkered down in Sandy Shock.

    Like yesterdays mini-flash crash in stocks the buying opportunity in RE was fairly short lived, unless we have another macro event that drives prices down again.

    DL if you were worried about prices increases considering June 2006 was the peak, we started recovering very slowly in NJ/NY in early 2012 so a bottom was in place why did you not jump into market when he had a post bottom short double dip after Sandy?

    Judging from March and April traffic and numbers I think I would already have to pay an extra 20K for the condo I just bought.

    Plus with stocks and bonds at multi year highs it was an opportunity to sell winners to buy housing.

    Housing was a terrible investment in 2009-2011, you missed a lot of the run up in stocks, munis and junk bonds since January 2011 if you jumped in too soon.

    Honestly December 2012-Feb 2013 was perfect time to buy. In the next 60 days home prices recovered from Sandy, stocks and bonds went up and mortgage rates down. After offer accepted you sold assets at a prem and locked in a lower rate than expected and got home at a great price with a spring move in date.
    Hindsight is 20/20 but short term folks should have been out with bags of cash chasing down homes while trees were down and power off in NJ.

    DL says:
    April 24, 2013 at 8:26 am

    If these numbers are anywhere close, I’ll be priced out of my comfort zone before anything we like comes on the market.

    Mr. Kim upgraded his view on the sector to positive, from neutral. He predicts that home prices, which spent several years in a downward spiral, will climb 10% in 2013 and 8% in 2014. He also points out that developed land is scarce and mortgage rates remain low, helping make buying more affordable than renting in many markets.

  21. Essex says:

    It’s gonna alright people. SON VOLT is back.

  22. DL says:

    Re 21: It’s all about location for us. Wife does not drive so we need to have some amenities within walking distance and public transportation also within walking distance. We could go all cash if we want, the problem is finding something on the two streets within the development where we would like to live. Last one we look at was too small and needed more work than we were willing to put up with (new kit; 2 new ba). We’re getting ready to lock in a lease for a year so we can keep looking but we suspect it’s going to be a long wait.

  23. chicagofinance says:

    What’s Normal?

    not clot

  24. JJ says:

    Sounds like you put yourself in a box. Has to be certain size, certain condition, certain location and certain price. Very hard to get a bargain that way. You need what you need but hard to get.

    When it does come up you have to pounce very quickly.

    DL says:
    April 24, 2013 at 9:19 am

    Re 21: It’s all about location for us. Wife does not drive so we need to have some amenities within walking distance and public transportation also within walking distance. We could go all cash if we want, the problem is finding something on the two streets within the development where we would like to live. Last one we look at was too small and needed more work than we were willing to put up with (new kit; 2 new ba). We’re getting ready to lock in a lease for a year so we can keep looking but we suspect it’s going to be a long wait.

  25. Essex says:

    ‘Tis the gift to be simple, ’tis the gift to be free
    ‘Tis the gift to come down where we ought to be,
    And when we find ourselves in the place just right,
    ‘Twill be in the valley of love and delight.
    When true simplicity is gain’d,
    To bow and to bend we shan’t be asham’d,
    To turn, turn will be our delight,
    Till by turning, turning we come ’round right.

  26. grim says:

    3 pillars, pick 2:


  27. chicagofinance says:

    All it takes is one deep pocketed alum to write a big check and it becomes worth it….nothing galvanizes the alumni base like sports……nothing galvanizes the students than blaming Wall Street Israel for the Boston bombings……

    grim says:
    April 24, 2013 at 6:41 am
    Ok, I’m just going to come out and come clean here, I don’t at all understand college basketball.

    How much money does the Rutgers basketball team generate on an annual basis?

  28. chicagofinance says:

    A Boost for Cornell’s Tech Campus on Roosevelt Island


    Two Cornell University alumni—Qualcomm Inc. co-founder Irwin Jacobs and his wife, Joan—have provided a critical boost to the upstate school’s fledgling technology campus on Roosevelt Island with a $133 million donation.

    The gift allows the school to move forward with a new interdisciplinary center, which will offer dual degrees from Cornell and Technion-Israel Institute of Technology in the sciences with exposure to New York’s major industries: media, urban planning and health.

    City and school officials announced the creation of the Joan and Irwin Jacobs Technion-Cornell Innovation Institute at a news conference Monday. The institute will offer its first classes beginning in fall 2014.

    Mr. Jacobs, who received a bachelor’s of electrical engineering from Cornell in 1956, and Ms. Jacobs, who received a degree in home economics in 1952, have long been generous donors to their alma mater. They have established the Irwin M. and Joan K. Jacobs Scholars and Fellows Programs and the Irwin and Joan Jacobs Professorship, both in the College of Engineering, as well as the Joan Klein Jacobs Cornell Tradition Fellowship in the College of Human Ecology at Cornell.

    After receiving his degree from Cornell and going on to graduate work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mr. Jacobs, 79 years old, founded Qualcomm in 1985, a San Diego-based Fortune 500 company that manufacturers a chip used in many of today’s cellphones. He said that his experience working in the cellphone industry, which is increasingly connected to changes in other fields, convinced him to support the interdisciplinary center.

    “I myself am an electrical engineering, but in the cellphone business you cover just about every area these days. Cellphones are being used in medicine and education,” Mr. Jacobs said, in an interview following the announcement.

    Ms. Jacobs’s name precedes her husband’s in the name of the center because she grew up in Washington Heights, and though the couple live in San Diego, she’s never lost her connection to the city.

    “I love New York. We travel the world and I still say New York is one of my favorite cities, but I think one of the great things is Uber—to get your cab on your cellphone,” Ms. Jacobs, 80, said.

    “Our cellphones and her love of New York come together,” Mr. Jacobs added.

    Cornell is expected to break ground on the 2 million-square-foot tech campus early next year, but it already launched its first degree program in January—a Cornell University Master of Engineering in Computer Science.

    While other programs on the campus are more heavily science focused, the interdisciplinary center will take a broader approach, officials said Monday, with areas of research potentially including medical devices, traffic control and social media. The institute will also work to foster ties between the students and the tech industry in New York, and work with the city toward the goal of making the tech campus an engine for job growth in the city, especially as finance jobs have been dwindling.

    The Jacobs’s gift is the second-largest to the new technology campus, after a $350 million donation by Atlantic Philanthropies, a charity formed by Duty Free shops billionaire Charles Feeney.

    The interdisciplinary institute was part of Cornell’s original proposal when it competed to receive city land and funding to build the campus, which is expected to cost more than $2 billion. But the donation was critical to allowing the school to move forward with creating the institute.

    “What this funding lets us do is turbocharge the launch of the institute,” said Daniel Huttenlocher, dean of the new tech campus.

  29. DL says:

    Our two are location and house. The development where we’re looking to buy has essentially two models, a too small rancher and everything else. We just need “not a rancher” to come on the market. Everything within the development is in our price range. We’re also know we will eant to rehab kit and ba. In the last 24 months, there have only been 5 closings in the development.

  30. Juice Box says:


    Seems post Sandy getting home insurance has now become a hassle.

  31. JJ says:

    If you already have a home you can just add a second home on to existing policy.

    Juice Box says:
    April 24, 2013 at 9:39 am


    Seems post Sandy getting home insurance has now become a hassle.

  32. JJ says:

    So at a school thing last night I was dragged too. Anyhow budget vote is next week and first time in life I heard cheers.

    Turns out school managed to end up in top 2% of High Schools while in the bottom 10% of High Schools in cost per student. And next years budget is only going up 1% with no cuts in programs.

    Pretty amazing. But I think they got some FEMA funds or something to pull off this miracle.

  33. Libtard in the City says:

    On the topic of paying a lot for coaches.

    I’m a big college sports fan and I get it, though in the grand scheme of things, it’s usually a bad investment. I have a brother who coaches crew at Ohio State. One home football game generates enough revenue to pay for all of their sports programs combined. My brother has excellent seats at the horseshoe. He used to (might still) barter them to a local car dealer in exchange for a free one-year lease of pretty much any Cadillac they have on their lot. These tickets are used as a giveaway to drive business to the dealer. So, every year my brother drives a brand new Caddy. At a big time school, sports programs can easily generate over 50 million in revenue. And this doesn’t account for the alumni donations (which at times rival the ticket and TV revenue) and the attraction that a successful athletic program has on recruiting students (not just athletes).

    Unfortunately, on the flip side, there are very few big time programs and 100 out of the 120 or so div 1 football programs cost more than they generate. In Rutgers case, it’s really not that bad. The stadium, until last year, was paid in full through ticket sales. Their entrance into the B1G comes with a hefty paycheck to the school which will easily make their football program a revenue generator again.

    As for basketball, Rutger’s revolving door of coaching changes has resulted in a huge share of transfers out. This year alone, there were three former Rutgers players in the NCAA tournament. Had these three stayed at Rutgers, chances are that Rutgers would have been in the tournament as well. Anyone remember Dante Jones from the latest Duke Championship team. He too was a Junior transfer out of RU. The RAC is one of the greatest arenas ever to watch a sporting event in. Sports Illustrated ranks it in their top ten places where opponents hate to play. Spend the $10 and catch a game against Seton Hall there. It’s really a wild experience. Especially when Rutgers has the occasional over achieving team.

    So finally, lots of people have different opinions of college sports. Ultimately, most student athletes obtain their degree before turning pro. Without college sports, lots of pro athletes will end up one major injury away from bankruptcy. Of course, many WILL end up their anyway. But at least they will know how to spell it.

  34. freedy says:

    how are those bond payment down at rutgers going ?

  35. Juice Box says:

    Tard – you might want to ask Grim to delete your post on your family.

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:

    [37] juice,

    I’m with you. Lib, that’s Something you don’t want out there.

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:

    All housing is local. Here in ChesCo, I’m seeing houses that didn’t sell right away start to age. A lot. If there is pent up demand, there isn’t any sense of urgency. Some are pretty good houses but we’ve reached stasis where sellers aren’t budging but buyers aren’t biting. So they sit, and some are sitting empty.

  38. JJ says:

    I love how in places like ChesCo assessor does not like to use distress sales as comps. But divorces, BKs, estate sales, relocations, short sales, storm damaged houses etc. are only homes selling.

    Sellers are playing chicken with buyers holding out for higher prices and niether is willing to go all James Dean. So stuff sits.

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:

    [40] JJ,

    I almost forgot: I got updates regarding price drops in a Toll development near me. So the new house market is also hurting. That tells me that there aren’t enough well-heeled buyers coming into this area. The big driver is pharma and DuPont relos. If those aren’t there, no one else is coming in.

    Also, with millage at over 18 versus millage of 13 in DelCo, Chester County has taxes that are comparable to New Jersey’s. In fact, I think that the millage rates are higher although actual payments are lower because home values are lower. And what do you get for those taxes? Many towns here have no police departments and rely on regional fire companies. Nearly everything goes into roads and the school district.

    So I see no value in buying at these prices, especially here in house farm country which is guaranteed to be the first to fall. To me, the real value is in the dirt, not the structure, and I do want to look at one house around the corner from me that seems rightsized and has 2.8 acres of dirt. Will make a right nice Nompound.

  40. Libtard in the City says:

    Oh Grim. Feel free to delete the brother stuff or my entire post above. I suppose the posters here are right. Can’t be too careful. Still, the gist of it is pretty crazy.

  41. grim says:

    Estate sales, relos, and divorces are not distressed sales.

  42. pine_brook says:

    Heared from our realtor that Montville market has stalled due to recent surge of inventory. There is a sense that the panic buying started in January is subsiding slowly.

  43. JSMC says:


    Do you think that stall is expanding to the west side of 287? (or anywhere around Montville, honestly)

  44. Having had one child go through the college sports recruiting process (non revenue-producing sport) and one at the beginning (also non revenue-producing) has led me to want to take multiple showers anytime I’m near any representative of a D-1 skool. I’ve also found that the most ambitious handful of D-3 coaches are as skilled in the black arts as most D-1 dirtbags and are, in fact, looking to move into D-1 positions.

    With rare exception, D-1 sports have devolved into quasi-professional enterprises in which the “student-athlete” is treated as either a de facto moneymaker or as a virtual prisoner to the whims of his coach.

    Football should be abolished. College basketball, while exciting, basically sucks.

    None of this matters, as all revenue-producing college sports will fail when society collapses

  45. JJ says:

    grim says:
    April 24, 2013 at 11:35 am

    Estate sales, relos, and divorces are not distressed sales.

    they are in hunterdoom, in fact a recent home was thrown out of comps as owner went into witness protection program and home had to be sold quick.

  46. pine_brook (44)-

    What little “rally” there has been in housing has been supported by cheerleading, puffery, chicanery in financing, the outright destruction of our currency and misleading statistics. A financial push that dwarfs the upfitting of the US economy onto a war footing in the early 1940s has produced the equivalent of a half-fart in the US housing market.

    No currency tricks or financial gimmickry is left to the chimps in charge of the “housing recovery”. Nothing left now but Wil e Coyote, off the cliff, legs spinning.

  47. Capital controls, bitchez!

    Soon coming to a fascist police state near you.

  48. Brian says:

    30 – Thanks Neil. I sent you Scrapple n’Ricin’s contact information. Feel free to contact him directly.

  49. JJ says:

    RealtyTrac’s 20 Best Markets For Buying Single Family Rentals are:

    Memphis, TN
    Saginaw, MI
    Toledo, OH
    Ocala, FL
    Las Vegas, NV
    Palm Bay, FL
    Atlanta, GA
    Jacksonville, FL
    Deltona, FL
    Springfield, MO
    Tampa, FL
    Port St. Lucie, FL
    Orlando, FL
    Phoenix, AZ
    Detroit, MI
    Lakeland, FL
    Kansas City, MO-KS
    Dayton, OH
    Syracuse, NY
    Ogden, UT

  50. Dan in debt says:

    Question for people on decks….

    So I had someone give me a quote for both pressure treated and composite decks last week. He gave me a quote of xx per square foot to do one way and the other. I mention this to neighbor and he tells me to talk to landscaper who was there at the time who re-did his deck last year. Landscaper wants to charge me more than the quote guy under same conditions but then suggests not to take out original deck but just to replace the wood and keep original foundation which while he didn’t give me a price sounds a lot cheaper. Only problem is that if we don’t change foundation, deck can’t be as large as wifey wanted but it could still be larger. Other advantage is that if we keep new foundation, no permits needed.

    Since I really don’t know or have never dealt with building or upgrading a deck, what questions would you have asked these guys and what costs would they not be including when they give quotes?

  51. Libtard in the City says:

    Definitely keep the foundation if you can, unless of course, the supports are too small for you to expand.

  52. chicagofinance says:

    Is this a typo? Did you see my post on the JJ Space Program?

    Dan in debt says:
    April 24, 2013 at 1:28 pm
    Question for people on decks….

  53. Brian says:

    What does “leaving the foundation” mean?

    Are you leaving the joists, beams, post, footings etc. ?


  54. grim says:

    If the footings are in good shape (also are large enough to meet current code), and the deck shape is similar, you can absolutely use the existing footings. No problem at all digging a few additional footings outside of the perimeter of the existing footings to enlarge the deck. Just use your head when laying out the design to make best use of the existing footings.

    Take a good hard look at the existing treated lumber, if its in good shape, you can keep it, but if its rough, you aren’t saving much by trying to re-use it, what good is it if you need to tear up your new deck in 10 years to fix the rotted substructure?

    To me, new treated beams and posts are a minor cost overall (you’ll spend more for nice railings than you will for your entire deck “foundation”.

  55. Hey brain, I sent you a pressure cooker with some nice osso buco in it. Enjoy.

  56. lib (54)-

    Pay to sit in a theater and learn how to make shit cannoli.

    Another clear indicator of the endtimes.

  57. Waiting In Rent says:

    Haven’t made an offer in while.
    Estate Sale in Ridgewood.
    We just upped our offer and the buyers came down 3 %.
    We are apart by less than 1%. House needs too much work and the sellers are taking way too much time to respond (3 days to respond). We are done with them.
    I hope what the realtor said about Montville will move East.

  58. rent (62)-

    By the time the collapse hits Ridgewood, you won’t want to buy anything other than long guns and MREs.

  59. Essex says:

    I lived in Montville for about 4 years. Rented a placed there. Liked it. Quiet.

  60. JJ says:

    At less than one percent if you waive mortgage contingency, say quick close, say you wont nit pick and will take as is unless something is really wrong house should be yours.

    If you did not use a buyers broker and using sellers realtor and no split commission maybe realtor will make it work.

    Within 1% with no buyers broker, you should be able to close.

    I got within 5% on my condo and when I threw in as is cash no mortgage contingency and since I was not using buyers broker I got deal done. Git Yer Done.
    Also elude to fact with sellers agent you may rent out home or sell your home and you will throw commission there way. Need the sellers realtor on your side to apply the KY to the sellers but.

    Waiting In Rent says:
    April 24, 2013 at 3:04 pm

    Haven’t made an offer in while.
    Estate Sale in Ridgewood.
    We just upped our offer and the buyers came down 3 %.
    We are apart by less than 1%. House needs too much work and the sellers are taking way too much time to respond (3 days to respond). We are done with them.
    I hope what the realtor said about Montville will move East.

  61. Funny seeing jj carrying water for the homeownership crowd.

    Where you sit is where you stand.

  62. JJ says:

    Other than working at KPMG and eating at bad french restaurant what do people do in Montvalle. Guess it is close to Bear Mountain and that Jap restaurant on the top of a hill. Mt Fuji

    Essex says:
    April 24, 2013 at 3:11 pm

    I lived in Montville for about 4 years. Rented a placed there. Liked it. Quiet.

  63. Oops; forgot that mentioning “water” and “home” in the same sentence might trigger some uncomfy memories for jj.

  64. Libtard in the City says:

    Mt. Fuji. I always wondered the name of that place as I drove by it far below.

  65. JJ says:

    I bought three home in my life

    1) A coop from RTC at auction in December 1991 at height of S&L crisis
    2) A stop foreclosure house Christmas week 1999 while you guys were worried about Y2K
    3) Post Sandy from an owner in the flood zone who bought new place week before Sandy in a flood zone, so was carrying two flooded houses neither could be lived in or rented. I was there in Feb with a cracked toliet, no heat, no electric, no water looking at place guy was evacuated from and never came back. I love the smell of mold in the morning

    When I am at your front steps with a bucket of cash watch out. I was also guy at BMW auction day after Lehman Collaspe, buying stock October 19, 1987, buying Munis Jan 2011 I am always there at botttom looking for a deal.

    Dont know if my buy sign is a good sign or not. Only trouble I have is not waiting till top I sell too soon, only cause when I think it is way overpriced it usually has a lot more to go.

    Scrapple n’Ricin says:
    April 24, 2013 at 3:16 pm

    Funny seeing jj carrying water for the homeownership crowd.

    Where you sit is where you stand.

  66. JJ says:


    actually mt fuji is not bad, great view

  67. Juice Box says:

    re: # 69 JJ — ah soy there were rumors when we were kids that the Mount Fuji chefs were really ninjas who trained by day and cooked by night and lived up in the rafters of those buildings.

  68. xolepa says:

    (47) Hmm. Maybe that explains my next door neighbors sudden disappearance.

    Seriously, every time I talk to a tax assessor, he/she pulls that distressed property excuse on me. I think I have them beat this time on the Florida property, though. Talking about Florida, Miami properties up across the board 20% this year. In my Florida town, less than 5. I’m fine as slow and steady is better. Besides, we keep the riff raff away there, too.

  69. xolepa (75)-

    Let that riff raff know what happened to Trayvon is coming their way if they don’t move on?

  70. JSMC says:


    There was a better place about 5 minutes away in Mahwah called East Tokyo on the Franklin Turnpike. It was in a shopping center, so the view wasn’t as nice, but the food was better. It closed about a year and a half ago. Real shame.

  71. EJ says:

    Been following this board daily since 2005 and I finally have an offer accepted in Yardley, PA. Can anyone recommend a good home inspector for this area?

    Oh and thanks to Grim for this forum..small donation on the way.

  72. Painhrtz - Doc Daneeka says:

    If i still lived in BC the only reason to go there is to relive the halcyon days of the 1970’s and to contract some form of food poisoning.

  73. Essex says:

    69. Montvale is bustling compared to Montville. Montville is at 287/route 80 and really a neighborhood and a 7/11.

  74. pain (80)-

    Any of the Manzo ptomaine taverns can fill the bill on your food poisoning request.

  75. acidtest says:

    If normal is 2005-2006 housing peak, I would be damn scared.
    I guess I’ll stay as a renter for a while.

  76. acid (79)-

    Where we’re headed, only lawyers, guns and money will help.

  77. Normal left the building a long time ago.

    Now, we get people like Bernank and the bleating sheep Krugman whining for the gubmint to destroy the world at a pace even faster than the one we’re currently managing.

  78. Brian says:

    Hunterdon cops crack down on beggars drawn to state’s wealthiest county


    FRANKLIN TWP. — Flocking to the state’s wealthiest county, groups of people have been dropped off here recently to beg for money.

    “It’s almost like they’ve passed the word” to travel 50 miles out to the country for easy money, said Patrolman Dominick Zeveney, officer in charge of the department.

    Often of Eastern European descent, the groups have carried signs that said “Homeless and Need Help” at Walmart Plaza.

    Police determined that the beggars actually have apartments in the Newark-Irvington area, Zeveney said, and now the department is cracking down on the behavior.

    The crackdown came as a result of complaints. Police were called there Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday and again today

    After issuing warnings, police are getting tougher. Today they issued a summons for soliciting without a permit. Of course, the township would never issue a permit to beg, but it’s a way to discourage the violators from coming back.

    People shouldn’t feel sorry and give to them because “you just don’t know where your money is going to,” Zeveney said.

    He’s found both men and women panhandling, often with children.

    “The kids always manage to tug at the heart strings,” he said. “We’ve had a woman with two kids along, a man with a son and daughter, another time a man and a woman with two kids.”

    His officers are authorized to assist if the subject is truly indigent and homeless. But that hasn’t been the case. When he questions the people about being homeless, he has learned they have places to live. When he warns them to move on, he’s seen them use cell phones to call for the people who have picked them up.

    Sometimes they say they were dropped off; other times they said they had vehicles and were looking for work in the area, he said.

    “I’ve asked them not to come back and to pass the word,” he said. “And I clearly discourage people from giving them money. There are other avenues in which they can receive help.

    “The more money given, the more they will be encouraged to come this way.”

    The Franklin Township police asked persons who encounter beggars to contact them at 908-782-9594.

    More Hunterdon County news: NJ.com/hunterdon • Facebook • Twitter

  79. joyce says:

    I wonder if that common sense statement can be applied to anything else…?

    Brian says:
    April 24, 2013 at 9:47 pm

    “The more money given, the more they will be encouraged to come this way.”

  80. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (NYC Mayoral Edition):

  81. Funny. Why would anyone come to beg in a county where the only growth is in food stamp usage?

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