Is the foreclosure crisis over?

From Inman News:

The foreclosure crisis is over

It’s been a long haul since the housing bubble burst in 2006 but there’s growing evidence that the foreclosure crisis is quickly winding down even as a stubborn batch of bad loans originated during the height of the housing bubble continues to pollute the real estate ecosystem.

First, let’s look at evidence the foreclosure crisis is truly over.

U.S. foreclosure activity dropped to a 74-month low in April, with 144,790 properties with foreclosure filings. Although still about twice as high as the average 75,000 per month in 2005, it was 60 percent below the monthly peak of more than 367,000 in March 2010.

Given the much tighter lending standards of the past few years and recently rising home prices, the downward trend in new foreclosure activity at the national level should continue for the foreseeable future, until monthly foreclosure activity is back to that “normal” level of about 75,000 properties with foreclosure filings a month.

The inventory of homes stuck in the foreclosure process was still up 4 percent in May from a year ago, caused primarily by elongated foreclosure timelines in judicial foreclosure states, but those inventory numbers should also turn a corner and start heading down in the relatively near future at the national level — although there will certainly be some states with longer foreclosure timelines where this trend will lag.

Loans originated during the most inflated years of the housing bubble account for the bulk of foreclosure inventory in 2013, even seven years after the bubble burst. Nearly three-fourths of loans in foreclosure (74 percent to be exact) as of May were originated between 2004 and 2008, according to RealtyTrac data, while 12 percent were originated after 2008 and 14 percent were originated before 2004.

At the current pace of bank repossessions (a little more than 40,000 a month so far this year) and third-party foreclosure sales (a little less than 30,000 a month so far this year), the approximately 850,000 loans now in the foreclosure process will be flushed out in about a year. It will take an additional six months for the bank-owned homes to be sold to third parties.

Unfortunately, loans already in the foreclosure process do not represent the totality of potentially toxic loans that need to be cleaned up. RealtyTrac data show that 37 percent of all outstanding mortgages not in foreclosure were originated between 2004 and 2008, representing more than 14 million loans. Furthermore, based on an 80 percent sample where interest rate data was available, approximately 88 percent of the 14 million at-risk loans have an interest rate of 6 percent or higher — indicating that the homeowners attached to those loans could benefit from a refinancing but have not done so.

This entry was posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery. Bookmark the permalink.

47 Responses to Is the foreclosure crisis over?

  1. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. foreclosures down 27% over past year: CoreLogic

    U.S. home foreclosures dropped sharply over the past year, but inventories of these distressed properties remain high in certain states, according to data released Tuesday.

    More than 50,000 foreclosures were completed in May, up 3.5% from April but down 27% compared with the year-earlier period, according to CoreLogic, an Irvine, Calif.-based analysis firm. Despite the drop, levels remain relatively high — the monthly average of completed foreclosures from 2000 to 2006 was 21,000.

    Bad loans are working their way out of the system, and new mortgages for borrowers with better credit are taking their place. Also, rising home prices and low interest rates are helping troubled owners sell or refinance their homes, reducing the pipeline of foreclosures. According to CoreLogic, about 1 million U.S. homes were in some stage of foreclosure in May, down 3.3% from April and down 29% from the same period in the prior year.

    Indeed, a Monday report from Jacksonville, Fla.-based Lender Processing Services showed that the rate of U.S. mortgages with late payments recently posted the biggest year-to-date decline since 2002.

    The U.S. foreclosure-inventory rate, which measures homes in the foreclosure process as a percentage of all mortgaged homes, was 2.6% in May, down 1.3 percentage points from the same period in the prior year, according to CoreLogic.

  2. anon (the good one) says:

    this is from this past weekend. obviously, those two young boys would had been with us if they were armed. a very clear example as to why we need more guns on the streets.

    @NewsBreaker: UNBELIEVABLE: 43 people shot in Chicago in 72 hours
    *9 men killed
    *2 victims were young boys
    (@suntimes)
    http://t.co/FxUqXC7nkh

  3. anon (the good one) says:

    joyce, ur post last nite, smarten up, that dude has been tweeting FAKE RT of all type of celebrities and political figures.

  4. Your only chance of survival in certain parts of Chicago is to be as armed as the gun-toting monkeys.

  5. anon (the good one) says:

    Chicago is run by the mob. guns have nothing to do with it. it is about governance.

  6. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    [1] anon

    “The balance of power is the scale of peace. The same balance would be preserved were all the world destitute of arms, for all would be alike; but since some will not, others dare not lay them aside. And while a single nation refuses to lay them down, it is proper that all should keep them up. Horrid mischief would ensue were one-half the world deprived of the use of them; for while avarice and ambition have a place in the heart of man, the weak will become a prey to the strong.”

    Thomas Paine

  7. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Main article – LOL. The heading on the article they point to for their data reads:

    “Foreclosure Starts Down Nationwide But Trending Higher in Several States
    Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, South Carolina Post Top 5 State Foreclosure Rates”

    There are houses in Morris County that have been in foreclosure for 5 years now. I guess if the banks don’t do anything more than file a LP the foreclosure activity is now considered “low”.

  8. Richard says:

    In LV builders are building again while tens of thousands of homes are empty. nice article http://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreclosure-squeeze-crimps-las-vegas-030500923.html

  9. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    There are 9,000 households in Rockaway Township, Morris County. Since November 2011 there have been exactly 6 foreclosures in Rockaway Township. That really is low foreclosure “activity”. Those residents must have the best credit in the nation.

    BTW, the average home value in Rockaway Township is $274K, down from $343K in August 2008. 9,000 households, only 6 foreclosures.

    http://www.zillow.com/local-info/NJ-Rockaway-Township-home-value/r_396484/

  10. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Anon – You realize that illinois gun restrictions are near NJ and NY levels. The cause is drug prohibition gang violence unfortunately innocents are caught in the crossfire. You were right on one thing though Chicago has been run by the mob for almost eighty years they are called democrats.

  11. Brian says:

    Chicago’s problems have more to do with the presence of gangs than the presence of guns. Chicago is a poor example to cite when arguing both for or against gun control because any laws passed restricting the use of guns is undermined by looser laws in neighboring municipalities/counties/states. In order to reduce “gun violence” in Chicago, you need to trace the origin of illegal guns that are in the hands of criminals and cut off their supply. There also should be a change in underlying culture and values but, that’s more difficult to change.

    Many of the illegal guns and guns used in crimes that are confiscated by Chicago PD are originally from legal sources outside the Chicago area.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/01/29/us/where-50000-guns-in-chicago-came-from.html?_r=0

    Clearly, restricting the availability of guns from legal sources inside Chicago has little effect on reducing gun violence as the issue of “straw purchases” from legal sources outside the city continued.

    http://www.suntimes.com/news/crime/14715658-418/chicago-gangs-dont-have-to-go-far-to-buy-guns.html

    Hi Point C9 (retail price $150)
    http://www.suntimes.com/photos/galleries/index.html?story=14618069

    Restricting legal firearms use and ownership within Chicago really is unfair in my oppinion. You can’t pass restrictive gun laws in a municipality, county or State and expect any reduction in gun violence. It makes it more difficult for people who need them the most to own them. People who live in high crime areas.

    2.anon (the good one) says:
    July 10, 2013 at 7:08 am
    this is from this past weekend. obviously, those two young boys would had been with us if they were armed. a very clear example as to why we need more guns on the streets.

    @NewsBreaker: UNBELIEVABLE: 43 people shot in Chicago in 72 hours
    *9 men killed
    *2 victims were young boys
    (@suntimes)
    http://t.co/FxUqXC7nkh

  12. Brian says:

    Grim can you unmod 11 please?

  13. chicagofinance says:

    Most of the time I have no frame of reference on your posts. However, if I can extrapolate from this comment, then you are a fool. I’ve lived in the South Side of Chicago…..do you have any idea about what is going on there? or do you just enjoy spewing random crap as a troll?

    anon (the good one) says:
    July 10, 2013 at 7:31 am
    Chicago is run by the mob. guns have nothing to do with it. it is about governance.

  14. Brian says:

    Illinois becomes last state in nation to allow concealed-carry
    Published July 09, 2013

    Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/07/09/illinois-becomes-last-state-in-nation-to-allow-concealed-carry/#ixzz2YeTco9d8

  15. joyce says:

    16

    I didn’t open the link… but are they going to allow it like NJ allows it?

    which is to say we don’t

  16. Libtard in Union says:

    Grim…How’s the EV?

  17. Young Buck says:

    17. From the link:

    “The law as approved by the Legislature permits anyone with a Firearm Owner’s Identification card who has passed a background check and undergone gun-safety training of 16 hours — longest of any state — to obtain a concealed-carry permit for $150.”

    I wish NJ allowed this.

  18. Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:

    What anon isn’t saying, and what must be true if he and his kind are serious about ending gun vi01ence, is that we need a massive police state complete with warrant-less, whole-property searches and conf1sc@tion on a national level. Then a sufficiently large police force to deal with the guns that escape the national sweep.

    This further requires the complete evisceration of the 2nd, 4th, and 5th amendments.

    Anything less simply dis-arms the lawful and emboldens the unlawful. Rather than solve the problem of crime, it exacerbates it. Thus, it must be asked what the true targets of anon and his fellow activists are. It cannot be the criminals because the guns are already here and more can come in. We can’t interd1ct dr-ugs, how will we interd1ct metal? It can’t be straw purchasers and illegal sellers since we already have numerous laws and regulations. It can’t be to “drain the swamp” with respect to wide swaths of gun vi0lence because the current effort is to target a weap0n that is widely held by lawful owners and rarely used in crimes (nearly 20 percent of the deaths from sem1automatic rif1es cited by activists occurred in two sh00tings).

    No, the true target is the lawful owner who is not a criminal, and the question must be asked “why?”

    (butchering of text to prevent mod)

  19. Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:

    [11] Brian

    Nearly all of the guns cited were 9MM hand-guns, and none were semiauto rif1es.

    You have to get back on message, dude.

  20. Libtard in Union says:

    Keep the guns. Destroy the sheeple.

  21. 30 year realtor says:

    How does one define foreclosure crisis anyway? For us Jersey folks the crisis is the system. The vast majority of the foreclosures filed during the foreclosure crisis have yet to run their course. Huge amount of property has yet to pass through the sheriff sale process.

  22. joyce says:

    19
    I wish they ‘allowed’ a lot more… but you’re right that’s a lot better than NJ.

  23. anon (the good one) says:

    so, you lived on the south side. what’s the point of your incoherent reply?

    chicagofinance says:
    July 10, 2013 at 9:13 am
    Most of the time I have no frame of reference on your posts. However, if I can extrapolate from this comment, then you are a fool. I’ve lived in the South Side of Chicago…..do you have any idea about what is going on there? or do you just enjoy spewing random crap as a troll?

  24. JJ says:

    Wow Leroy Brown is on the Board today

  25. grim says:

    23 – I have yet to hear of a single property put through the new accelerated foreclosure process for abandoned properties.

  26. chicagofinance says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6gNo4-1r6k

    JJ says:

    July 10, 2013 at 12:12 pm

    Wow Leroy Brown is on the Board today

  27. Brian says:

    I have the annoying ability to argue both sides of an issue.

    21.Comrade Nom Deplume, Bostonian says:
    July 10, 2013 at 11:51 am
    [11] Brian

    Nearly all of the guns cited were 9MM hand-guns, and none were semiauto rif1es.

    You have to get back on message, dude.

  28. JJ says:

    chicagofinance says:

    Chifi, guess the boys over at NLY are no longer the smartest guys in the room

  29. joyce says:

    29

    Ah, but can you argue more than two sides of an issue?

  30. JJ says:

    My buddy was dating two girls and while on a date with a third girl got caught by the first two girls. He argued at least 50 sides of that issue. Only one believed him which is all he needed to prevent blue balls that night.

    joyce says:
    July 10, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    29

    Ah, but can you argue more than two sides of an issue?

  31. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    [29] Brian

    I don’t consider that annoying. I consider that a prerequisite.

  32. All Hype says:

    Pain (10):

    Chicago is in good hands with Rahm Emmanuel. He is a competent and effective leader. Also, he Gary McCarthy as his police boss. He cleaned up Newark in a previous life.

    This increase in crime was obviously caused by President Bush II. It is a carry over from his policies 10 years ago.

  33. Wake me up when some punk caps Rahm Emanuel.

  34. Brian says:

    In NJ, we never had a foreclosure crisis. We had a slow motion train wreck.

  35. nwnj says:

    anon is the perfect WS occupier. Sees the ills in society but doesn’t have a clue where they originate or how to correct them. He takes his orders from twitter.

  36. Sima says:

    I agree with much that was said about temp work yesterday, esp Bystander.

    My husband, in a pharma-related temp/contract job, said he found out that about 20% of contract workers at his current place are tossed after 1 month (for whatever reason), and the rest are stressed out to the max trying to keep the current contract job, knowing they can be let go at any moment for any reason at all.

    And there is no way that a temp contract worker will take a “vacation/sick day” because that means less money. But all fantasize about how great it would be to get even one paid day off – say a national holiday…

    At least 1/3 of workers at each company he has worked at in the past 2 years are contract workers, who tend to be over 50 year old males, all with incredible education and work experience.
    All feel that this constant hiring and letting go of workers is not good for productivity of a company and a tremendous waste of time and money – by the time the worker really gets up to speed, the project is over and they go out the door.

    And there is no way that any contract worker will spend money on anything extra – they’re just trying to hold on to any extra cash (ha!) for those “in-between job” times. Life is just survival and nothing more.

    The message to the next generation is: hoard cash, don’t spend, because you may be next to not have a job, and definitely don’t expect a pension (or benefits) down the road.

    Bystander says: July 9, 2013 at 7:58 pm
    Big IBs, insurance, pharma truly don’t give a sh*t about keeping employees because economy is terrible. Why pay six figures, bonus, benefits when you can just pay someone for 6 mos. then be done with them? I get a dozen calls/emails a day about contract jobs (3 – 12 months duration). I get the lone call once a month about FT job and pay is garbage. Right now, companies toss older workers out and train younger workers while economy is still in cr*pper. Over 40 crowd is f*ed like never before due to the length of the recession and prolonged timeline for return to normalcy. And how do you qualify for mortgage when you lose a job or get hired as a contract worker? Most lenders want two years of stable income.

  37. JJ says:

    I find it funny that people think tossing of 50 year olds is a new thing.

    My first day on Wall Street in the 1980s the floor had 300 people. Four corner office and pretty much the only four folks over 40 were in those four office. Next Job entire department as in their 20’s, like 50 of us and the four managers and two bosses were only ones over 35.

    Heck in College I worked at a large branch bank. 40 tellers all young kids and housewives, a few housewives on the floor and one branch manager over 50,

    Think about this, When I was in big four the minimum amount of workers needed to support a Partner was ten, usually with admin and interns and some with larger clients had like 30 folks working for them. Back then you had to 40 to make partner. So basically 90% of folks were under 40 with most being under 28.

    Folks dont die at 40. Or working career is 21 to 67 nowdays.

    Funniest or saddest part is bosses who are working Moms, have kids or parents with medical conditions dont want folks with baggage. The boss and his second in command are usually older have a few kids, maybe sick parents, once you break 55 harder to work all night or come in on weekends. Basically they look for guys or girls under 32 who are single or newly married in good health who will work for less to do the heavy lifting while they are in the twilight of their career. The folks in charge worked their butt off with no breaks their first 20 years and now they feel it is their time to relax. Two jobs I had at prior companies were stressfull, as I inherited a lot of folks married 2-5 years and they entered baby making mode and I had folks out leaving early all the time and I was covering for them left and right. I felt like the abused staff. Another time I got stuck with visa people and all their paperwork, once a lot of staff were going to grad school at once. I know it is part of job.

    But honestly two folks walk into office both wanting 100k, someone extremely qualified about 50 has a few minor chronic conditions, kids in teams he coaches, parents getting older and a wife who works and has a long commute. or a slightly lesser qualified single girl or guy around 28 who lives in City with no commute, does not mind working late or even coming in on weekends. And is most likely a good five years away from starting a family. He/She has no vacations to coordinate with spouse, kids events, parents are young and healthy and has no medical conditions. Which means boss when he has his own things to cover someone can be at work.

    The boss knows his day will come when they boot him and he will never work again. But boss knows he cant change world. Boss who is 54 also knows someone who is 52 who used to be a SVP who is willing to be your third banana is plotting for your job and will steal it first chance they get. The 54 year old boss knows the 28 year old by the time she is ready for your job who cares you are at retirement anyhow.

  38. Juice Box says:

    Too bad Zim won’t testify. I wanted to see them ask him if he ever used the N word.

  39. Bystander says:

    JJ,

    Agree that getting rid of old and hiring young is nothing new..what is new is that 40-50 year olds have no place to go but contract jobs. Put it this way I was 33, single, no kids in 2007 when I was hired at former IB. I spent the next 6 years scrapping, trying survive at least twelve rounds of cuts. Group went from 60 FT to 25. My number was called late last year. Now, I am 40 and there are very few FT jobs and tons of contract jobs. You get lucky if you stay a year, most are 6-8 months. Just saying..these ain’t normal old times.

  40. Fabius Maximus says:

    #29 Brian

    That is because most issues are not black and white, there are many shades of grey. I came across this great comment today.
    “And let me call myself pro-life, because the fact that I’m pro-choice doesn’t mean I’m not.”

  41. Fabius Maximus says:

    Chi, where are you on this one, Liberty say its import only!
    http://www.northjersey.com/news/Proposed_ocean_pipeline_would_pump_natural_gas_from_port_off_New_Jersey_coast.html

    A) Cheap gas at any price!
    B) Not in my Back Yard
    C) I’m renting, see A)

  42. chicagofinance says:

    Is that a robust set of choices? I think I have made my opinion clear….

    Fabius Maximus says:
    July 10, 2013 at 11:54 pm
    Chi, where are you on this one, Liberty say its import only!
    http://www.northjersey.com/news/Proposed_ocean_pipeline_would_pump_natural_gas_from_port_off_New_Jersey_coast.html

    A) Cheap gas at any price!
    B) Not in my Back Yard
    C) I’m renting, see A)

  43. Fabius Maximus says:

    #48 Chi

    Feel free to expand the list and state your choice.

    My BS meter is going off on this. There is no way this thing is import only. This is the final link for PA and NY fracking operations to start exports. I see this ending with the gas extracted and exported and the money made. The shell companies declare bankruptcy and the states are left to clean up the mess on their own dime.

  44. Fabius Maximus says:

    Here is something to consider in light of the oil train explosion in Canada. I bbeter book a few trips to Old Homestead before they turn this on.

    http://www.westviewnews.org/cms/images/stories/June2011/Pipeline/color%20radius%20map.jpg

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