Rates to drag the market down (or maybe not)

From CNBC:

Dire Predictions For Housing Recovery

The housing recovery is in for a major pause due to higher mortgage rates. It is not in the numbers now, and it won’t be for a few months, but it is coming, according to one noted analyst. The market has seen rising rates before, but never so far so fast; there is no precedent for a 45 percent spike in just six weeks. The spike is causing a sense of urgency now, a rush to buy before rates go higher, but that will be short term. Home sales and home prices will both come down if rates don’t return to their lows, and the expectation is that they will not.

Where is the proof of this? We only need look to the $8,000 home buyer tax credit that expired in 2010. The falloff was dramatic.

“That stimulus was so small compared to a 3.5 percent interest rate, it’s almost not even a comparable, but it’s the only thing I can find,” said Mark Hanson, a well-known mortgage analyst in California who predicted many aspects of the mortgage market crash. “When that stimulus went away, new home sales fell 38 percent in a single month, down 25 percent year-over-year, and existing home sales fell 30 percent over a single month, 24 percent year-over year.”

Hanson is predicting a 19 percent jump in contract cancelations for the home builders for sales made between December 2012 and June of this year. That is because 70 percent of homes sold in that time were not built yet, and buyers had not locked in rates. As for the home builder stocks, he said they are, “priced for perfection” according to sales from the past years, but those sales won’t hold up.

The predictions may sound dire, but the forward-looking indicators are falling in line. Mortgage applications have been falling for the past month. Applications to purchase a home are down 28 percent in the past month and up only 4.5 percent from a year ago. They should be up far higher, given that prices and demand are rising so fast. Signed contracts to buy existing homes jumped unexpectedly to a six-year high in May as rates started to rise; there’s your rush.

Mortgage rates going from 3.5 to 5 percent is roughly a 15 to 20 percent decrease in what the average buyer can afford. They can move to different loan products, like an adjustable rate loan, but ARMs are harder to qualify for and require far more documentation.

Prices are moving up faster than income growth and faster than employment growth. Even the Realtors have said they are overheating. Buyer demand is clearly there, a lot of pent-up demand from the housing crash, but demand that will have a price cap. Yes, mortgage rates were at 6 percent for much of the 2000’s and higher than that in the 1980s and 1990s, but 3.5 percent became the new normal, and a lot of demand was pulled forward at that rate. This housing recovery was easy at 3.5 percent. It will be far harder at 5.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, Mortgages. Bookmark the permalink.

75 Responses to Rates to drag the market down (or maybe not)

  1. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Foreclosure starts reach lowest level since 2005

    For the first six months of 2013, RealtyTrac reported a total of 801,359 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings, which include default notices, schedules auctions and bank repossessions. This is down 19% from the previous six months and a 23% drop from the first half of 2012.

    The RealtyTrac report also revealed that 0.61% of all U.S. housing units — one in 164 — had at least one foreclosure filing in the first six months of the year.

    In June, a total of 127,790 U.S. properties had foreclosure filings, down 14% from the previous month and a 35% decline from one-year prior. This marks the lowest monthly level since December 2006.

    What’s more, foreclosure starts in June fell 21% from the month before and were down 45% from a year ago, falling to the lowest monthly level since December 2005.

    Year-to-date, 409,491 foreclosure starts have been filed throughout the country, on pace to reach more than 800,000, which would be down from 1.1 million foreclosure starts in 2012.

    “Halfway through 2013 it is becoming increasingly evident that while foreclosures are no longer a problem nationally they continue to be a thorn in the side of several state and local markets, particularly where a backlog of delayed distress has built up thanks to a lengthy foreclosure process,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.

  2. grim says:

    Grim…How’s the EV?

    Good stuff, highly recommend the car, only wish it didn’t have a light colored interior, that has me more paranoid than range. And speaking of range, we’re finding it easy to top the 92 mile estimated range, and on any given day, find it relatively easy to drive more than 100 combined miles over multiple trips. We’d probably have driven it even more if we had the fast charger installed (still waiting for Leviton, the dealer didn’t submit the form at purchase).

    Charging stations are largely nonexistent, so don’t base your purchase on being able to charge while your out and about, at least not now anyway. I expect that to change over the next year. Wife was at GSP yesterday and was going to pull into one of the Tesla reserved spaces to charge up, but she didn’t have the portable charger with her (Tesla uses a proprietary plug, not the standard J1772.)

    The car is surprisingly fun to drive on sport mode, there is no problem lighting the tires up if you floor it in just the right way (yeah I know, that’s no big feat for high pressure/economy 13’s.) It’s a real car, I think that’s the biggest shocker to me. If you didn’t tell someone it was electric, and put them behind the wheel, I’m not sure they’d have any idea at all, other than wondering what the funny whirring star trek noise is.

    I wouldn’t be able to rely on the slow charger long term, especially if this was my only car. I got home around 9 last night with about 8 miles range left, plugged it in, right now at 7, it’s only up to 82% range. You get roughly 5 miles range for every hour plugged in to 115v. Compare that to full charge on the 240v charger in 3 hours, somewhere around 30 miles range per hour charge, much more reasonable.

  3. anon (the good one) says:

    recently there was a discussion about homeowners insurance.
    I’m currently negotiating an issue with my insurer but I won’t provide any details cause it hasn’t been solved and don’t want to jinx myself.

  4. anon (the good one) says:

    anybody seen Stone’s series about American history? had great reviews.

    @TheOliverStone: Reagan, one of the best actors of all time. His Oscar winning performance, convincing the American public the Vietnam War was a noble cause.

  5. You think today’s rates are suppressing the market? Wait until they return to the previously “normal” 6% to 7% range.

    No housing recovery in sight. The only “recovery” that has occurred has been a statistical blip, all driven by the bubble in little green pieces of paper and QE4eva…and, that bubble is about to blow sky high. After the next meltdown, there will be no more bubbles to blow.

    It’s all over, but for the crying. RE is dead money for 50-100 years.

  6. Zero Hedge > Larry Crudlow

    “In a surreal and deja vu-ish turn of events, three days ago we reported that in parallel with the ongoing collapse in CNBC viewership, the ratings of some of its shows namely Jim Cramer’s Mad Money and Larry Kudlow’s Report had just hit all time lows. This was met with an immediate response by Larry Kudlow himself who, alongside Groundhog Phil-fodder Joe LaVorgna, decided to take Zero Hedge to task for reporting that part-time jobs are not really full-time jobs and invited us over to their show to explain how dare we point out the weakness in the manipulated BLS datadump. We were kind enough to remind Mr. Kudlow that the last time someone from CNBC “invited” us over, i.e., Dennis “Digital Dickweed” Kneale, their show was promptly cancelled. To wit: “While we appreciate the offer, the last thing we intend to do is suffer Mr. Kudlow the same fate as that experienced by his predecessor Dennis Kneale who also invited Zero Hedge on his laughable excuse for a show in 2009, only to be sacked a few months later.” Make it two for two as irony strikes again. The NY Post reports that Kudlow’s show is over.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-11/goodbye-larry-kudlow-report

  7. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    [4] anon,

    Paradoxically, Stone, more than most anyone, did his part to help America feel better about the war. Perhaps not his intent, but he humanized our soldiers and dehumanized the enemy. “We were soldiers” was much more of an anti war pic.

  8. nwnj says:

    anon sides with the reds, not much of a surprise there.

  9. JJ says:

    Rates going higher means we have inflation. Inflation means home prices rise. Look at years 1999 and 2000.

    However, first time buyers and people with low downpayments most sensitive to rising rates this is really bad news.

    The percentage of people who own individual stocks have been falling steady the last 13 years. The retail investor is not trading stocks like they used to. No wonder Cramer and Kudlow have less viewers, no mystery.

  10. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Nom i knew more guys who wanted to enlist because platoon made the war look “fun”

    Stone is a moron conspiracy theorist

  11. Brian says:

    Are they less involved in equities or just buying them via mutual funds and ETFs?

    9.JJ says:
    July 11, 2013 at 8:32 am

    The percentage of people who own individual stocks have been falling steady the last 13 years. The retail investor is not trading stocks like they used to. No wonder Cramer and Kudlow have less viewers, no mystery.

  12. grim says:

    No retail investors? So who are all of the HFT guys front running these days … themselves?

  13. grim says:

    Jobless claims jump 16k to 360k. 4 week average up 6k to 351,750.

  14. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    New York Homebuyers Fuel Record Brooklyn Prices in Sales Frenzy

    Home prices in Brooklyn, New York’s most populous borough, surged to a record as low interest rates and rising rents across the city swelled demand for homeownership amid a dwindling supply of properties for sale.

    The median price of condominiums, co-ops and one- to three-family homes that sold in the second quarter was $550,000, up 15 percent from a year earlier and the highest in more than a decade of record keeping, New York-based appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a report today. The inventory of listings fell 19 percent to 4,704, the lowest for a second quarter since Miller Samuel began tracking the data in 2008, said Jonathan Miller, the firm’s president.

    “You choke off supply, you have a slowly improving economy, and prices rise,” Miller said. “And then you compound it by widening your source of demand, when one of your competitors — Manhattan — is experiencing the same inventory problem.”
    Rent gains across New York coupled with mortgage rates at historical lows have helped push buyers into a sales market that’s more affordable than Manhattan’s, while owners are still holding back from listing their properties. Homeowners who bought during the previous peak, when Brooklyn prices hit a median of $540,000 in 2007, still don’t have the equity to sell and come up with a down payment for something new, Miller said.

    “You’re not under duress, you didn’t lose your job, you just can’t make the move, so what do you do? Nothing,” Miller said. “You just sit and wait for the market to improve.”

  15. JJ says:

    Overall less involved. Good Piece written by Charles Schwab in todays Journal on this topic

    Brian says:
    July 11, 2013 at 8:47 am

    Are they less involved in equities or just buying them via mutual funds and ETFs?

  16. A long time observer to the pit says:

    Grim and others. Recommend you see the ” Two Families ” episode of PBS Frontline. It came out Tuesday nite. I did not see it till yesterday in my DVR. Is available in web at PBS or On Demand with some cable companies.

    It follows 2 Milwaukee families from 1991 to the present. Out of a total of 8 kids that came from both families, only 1 that got into politics is financially better off, and he does not want to have a family until ready.

    Everyone in the documentary is either on minimum wage – no benefit – temp like jobs or unemployed.

    Big point is – so if these kids are the economic future? Then there is nothing like before and the future will look like a third world economy.

  17. Bystander says:

    JJ,

    You can’t have inflation without income growth. You can’t have a healthy housing market without first time buyers and low dp options. Don’t see them improving in next year.

  18. grim says:

    You lost me at Milwaukee… People still live there? What do they all do, work at the Schlitz plant?

  19. JJ says:

    S&P 500 Climbs To Record, Rising 1% To 1669.23

    It is official, in our lifetime no-one has ever lost money in the S&P as a buy and hold investor. Every trade in their lifetime they made money on.

    Pretty impressive for such a boring old index.

  20. JJ says:

    I had a client in Milwaukee and spent 10 weeks there. Worst place in world for making month

    Three big employers, Harley, Northwestern Mutual, Miller.

    Neither skill is transferable to the other. You can’t job hunt, folks stay in one place their whole career and promotions are next to impossible.

    The 50 person dept I worked in had a little tradition on your work anniversary they would ring a bell and serve cake to everyone. I miss that cake. But we had one around every week. 15 years, 20 years, 35, years 45 years. You name it. Lots of jobs in Miller and Harley you start out of HS and even Northwestern Mutual none of the clerical jobs require a degree. Some folks even worked there in HS part time. Pretty amazing when bell rings and a pretty young girl comes and gets her cake for her 13 anniversary who started at 16 and is now 29. Some folks had same two bosses for 20 years.

    Salaries are very low in Milwaukee, so everyone is dual income. I was amazed I saw the salaries and there were plenty of people working at 1x their age. 45 year old women in cubes were making 45k a year. CRAZY, and this is 2002 when I was there, not 1982. They were shocked when I told them I was paying 47K to start for college graduates who live at home.

  21. JJ says:

    Follow the bouncing ball. Ben pushed us to bonds, then the stampede went to stocks, then the stampede went to real estate. This has very little to do with income.

    Folks following the bouncing bubble care less about income. Heck I had a few friends who quit work as it is getting in the way of making money.

    My bigger issue is what to do when music stops. If you notice I have not talked about bonds in like a year. I am in what I call “run-off” I stopped buying but did not sell. Investing matured bonds and interest elsewhere and letting duration fall every day. I was doing stocks second half of 2012 and early 2013 till that got pricey, then I just bought the investment property. Now RE looks price. Too scared to buy any more bonds, just averaging into stocks and I am done with Real Estate. I own two mortgage free places outright. I cant walk away so I have all that exposure.

    Folks will once again start complaining they have too much money. And they dont know what to do with the money. Maybe prepay mortgage, buy a car cash. But when all assets classes are fully valued or even overvalued bigger issue is what to do with funds then lack of funds

    Bystander says:
    July 11, 2013 at 9:35 am

    JJ,

    You can’t have inflation without income growth. You can’t have a healthy housing market without first time buyers and low dp options. Don’t see them improving in next year.

  22. 1987 condo Buyer says:

    #16…the US still has 75% of working population without a college degree, $100,000+ UAW and manufacturing jobs are just not as prevalent as before…

    #2..bunch of EV charging spots at Bellevue Ave shopping center in Montclair….

  23. Sima says:

    Most of the 20s males that I know are hunkering down (yes – living at home), saving, and trying to not spend any money, and the most frugal are those who saw their parents (esp. fathers) laid off in the recession (and saw how hard it is to get employment for those above 50). They have learned the message.

    The only young adults that I see spending money on goodies are those whose parents did well during the recession and still have well-paying jobs (and so also give them $).

  24. Brian says:

    http://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/data/cps/historical/fig11.jpg

    22.1987 condo Buyer says:
    July 11, 2013 at 10:02 am
    #16…the US still has 75% of working population without a college degree, $100,000+ UAW and manufacturing jobs are just not as prevalent as before…

  25. 1987 condo Buyer says:

    #24….68% then?

  26. JJ says:

    I read an interesting Oped piece about a study of kids who went to the most expensive colleges. It was not tied to the parents wealth. It was tied to the kids perception of parents wealth.

    Article went big spending guy withe a leverage mcmansion and three leased cars kids think Dad is richer than he is and applies to expensive schools.

    Cheap Rich Dad who lives in modest house and drives used cars but has a lot of money in back, kids went to cheap schools.

    My daughter will say stuff like so and so parent are rich they have a bigger house than us, fancier cars and all the latest gadgets. Meanwhile I know what Dad does for a living and he makes less than me.

    I actually was down in the trendy west end of Long Beach last night around 11pm. I was doing some minor work on my place as I got a tenant who is interested quicker than expected and had to go after work.

    I say all the bars crowded, lots of 20 somethings hanging out, at least 10 couples making out drunk. Oh yea, they live at home but they rent for summer in Long Beach stay whole summer and go straight to work from there. And in winter go to Cancun and skiing and live at home only cause why rent it is very expensive, cramps your lifestyle and at best you are there only 180 nights a year. I moved back home for a bit when I was 27 and moved back out at 29. Why, apartment was a waste. I slept at my friends place in NYC when I was out drinking with him, My hamptons place like 40 nights a year, and skiiing or vacation another 40 nights a year and then at whoever I was dating another 10-20 nights a year. Plus I even stayed at Moms place xmas eve, easter or when going to beach even when I had a place. I did not stay long but no shame in living at home under 30. It is foolish to rent and have it suck up all your funds.
    July 11, 2013 at 10:05 am

    Most of the 20s males that I know are hunkering down (yes – living at home), saving, and trying to not spend any money, and the most frugal are those who saw their parents (esp. fathers) laid off in the recession (and saw how hard it is to get employment for those above 50). They have learned the message.

    The only young adults that I see spending money on goodies are those whose parents did well during the recession and still have well-paying jobs (and so also give them $).

  27. Libtard in Union says:

    Grim…thanks for the update. From what I’ve been reading, I should have mine in the next two months. No rush for me and we never planned to use the EV for anything more than the local car. We have the Civic for the AC runs and the CX-9 for the family road trips. I’m taking the bi-annual boys weekend (that sounds pretty homo admittedly) next Thursday. Old reliable is primed and ready for the long haul. Glad I fixed the AC!

  28. Brian says:

    I think working age population is 16 – 64 for males and 16 – 59 for females. That graph is for all people 25 years and older so I am not sure. 75% of working age with no college seems high to me though.

    25.1987 condo Buyer says:
    July 11, 2013 at 10:20 am
    #24….68% then?

  29. Soon, everyone will be poor. The great reckoning is at hand.

  30. JJ says:

    30-year-mortgage rate rises to 4.51%
    Ruth Mantell
    MARKETWATCH — 31 MINUTES AGO

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The average rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.51% in the week ending July 11 – reaching the highest rate since July 2011 – up from 4.29% in the prior week, Freddie Mac said Thursday in its weekly report. “June’s strong employment led to more market speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce future bond purchases causing bond yields to rise and mortgage rates followed,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. The rate has climbed more than one full percentage point since a trough in early May, a gain that analysts say could crimp the housing market’s rebound. A year ago, the 30-year rate averaged 3.56%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage average rose in the latest week to 3.53% from 3.39% in the prior week. The average rate on the 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage increased to 3.26% from 3.1% in the prior week. The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM remained at 2.66%.

  31. JJ says:

    I’m taking the bi-annual boys weekend next Thursday. Old reliable is primed and ready for the long haul.

    Is Old Reliable your asshole or car?

  32. Bystander says:

    JJ,

    When the music’s over, turn out the lights.
    -Jim Morrison

  33. Anon E. Moose says:

    Anon [4,5];

    Hitting the bong a little early this morning, aren’t you?

  34. chicagofinance says:

    JJ’s office in Milwaukee…..
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRmKzxhMzwo

  35. JJ says:

    That chart is mileading it says average earnings of average people. NJ blue ribbon schools only turn our above average students, therefore we are all above average.

    I need to see average above average earnings.
    Brian says:
    July 11, 2013 at 11:11 am

    http://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/data/cps/historical/fig10.jpg

  36. Anon E. Moose says:

    nwnj [8];

    anon sides with the reds, not much of a surprise there.

    Anti-war in the 30’s was objectively pro-fascist.

    The American public came to a truce about the Vietnam War in the mid-late 80’s. The communist left STFU with their abuse of soldiers over civilian casualties (i.e., spiting on a draftees getting off the plane and calling them ‘baby killer’), and the rest of the country gave them a pass for being the traitors that they were/are.

    It was easy to do when the economy was growing, people were working and making money; most folks had other more pleasant ways to occupy their time.

  37. Anon E. Moose says:

    Scrapple [29];

    Soon, everyone will be poor. The great reckoning is at hand.

    Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

    This is known as “bad luck.”

    -Robert A. Heinlein

  38. joyce says:

    37
    Blaming the individual soldiers is never a good idea really… but you can’t say all that and leave out the reasons/lies given (by our esteems leaders) for the United States entering pretty much every major conflict in the last X years.

  39. joyce says:

    I should have said, ‘entering or starting’

  40. anon (the good one) says:

    Moose 38.

    Robert A. Heinlein

    In books written as early as 1956, Heinlein dealt with incest and the sexual nature of children. Many of his books (including Time for the Stars, Glory Road, Time Enough for Love and The Number of the Beast) dealt explicitly or implicitly with incest, sexual feelings and relations between adults and children, or both.[70] The treatment of these themes include the romantic relationship and eventual marriage (once the girl becomes an adult via time-travel) of a 30-year-old engineer and an 11-year-old girl in The Door into Summer or the more overt inter-familial incest in To Sail Beyond the Sunset and Farnham’s Freehold. Peers such as L. Sprague DeCamp and Damon Knight have commented critically on Heinlein’s portrayal of incest and pedophilia in a lighthearted and even approving manner.[70]

  41. Tom C says:

    >Rates going higher means we have inflation. Inflation means home prices rise.

    No, it doesn’t. Historically (30+ years), for the US, yes. We have also been in a 30yr bull market in bonds. What if this time, they rise because the bull is over.

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume, Historian says:

    [38] moose,

    I like this Heinlein quote better:

    “An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.”

  43. JJ says:

    Hard Assets, housing, gold, silver etc. traditionally are a hedge against inflation. Granted if we go back to 13% mortgages the market will freeze up.

    But from Spring 1995 till Spring 2000 rates were pretty damm high. Was like 8% in Feb 2000. Folks did not care cause stock mkt was returning 20% a year and raises were 3-6%. I have old money market statements from 1990’s that say 8%. Home prices still were able to rise without the Fed, although at a slower rate as inflation was bubbling up our salaries and our interest income.

    Who knows. Rates rose very rapidly in 1999 yet housing rose. Rates rose very rapidly in 2006 and it caused housing to collapse.

    Tom C says:
    July 11, 2013 at 1:00 pm

    >Rates going higher means we have inflation. Inflation means home prices rise.

    No, it doesn’t. Historically (30+ years), for the US, yes. We have also been in a 30yr bull market in bonds. What if this time, they rise because the bull is over.

  44. joyce says:

    JJ says:
    July 11, 2013 at 8:32 am
    Rates going higher means we have inflation. Inflation means home prices rise.

    JJ says:
    July 11, 2013 at 1:14 pm
    Who knows. Rates rose very rapidly in 1999 yet housing rose. Rates rose very rapidly in 2006 and it caused housing to collapse.

    Who knows is right… and the answer is not you.

  45. 250k says:

    Santelli’s “Flower Rant”… good to see him getting feisty again.

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000182232

    If you really want to see how bad the employment picture is and you are currently employed, just TRY to get a new job yourself even though you are one of the more “employable” employed. Good luck with that. I know plenty of folks across all industries and income levels who are lucky if they are moving from one contract job to another.

  46. Statler Waldorf says:
  47. Bystander says:

    Santelli gets it. Unemployment numbers lie regarding stability. You may have a job for 8 mos. but back on couch at some point during the year. NY metro is full of these individuals.

  48. NJGator says:

    Blah, blah, blah…

    Realtors Rave About Hot Housing Market In Montclair, Glen Ridge

    http://www.baristanet.com/2013/07/realtors-rave-about-hot-housing-market-in-montclair-glen-ridge

  49. Ragnar says:

    Anon (the lefty one),
    I’ve never read a Heinlein book, but what you described sounds like the typical winner of the Palme D’or at Cannes bestowed by lefties every year.

    I almost never see the lefty, Daily Kos attack crowds launching similar attacks at folks like Derrida (actual behavior), Nabokov (similar subject matter in novels, but received a pardon because he was mistakenly believed to be anti-American by the intellectuals). The left romanticizes the whatever boozing, drugging, and molesting lefties do, but explicitly anti-statist artists get attacked by lefty lapdogs for transgressions they’d otherwise celebrate.

  50. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Heinlein often gets mistaken for a libertarian while he had libertarian leanings he was more of a miltarist. I love his work but he is not what most think he is. The bad luck quote is by far one of the most truthful and simplistic literary masterpieces ever concieved,

  51. Anon E. Moose says:

    Anon [42];

    Further to my [3]], continuing throughout the day, I see.

  52. Richard says:

    No retail investors? So who are all of the HFT guys front running these days … themselves?

    pretty much

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-06/how-the-robots-lost-high-frequency-tradings-rise-and-fall#p1

  53. Anon E. Moose says:

    Rags [52];

    Anon will get back to you right after he’s done watching his Roman Polanski filmography.

  54. JJ says:

    Ben’s comments last night gave first time buyers and fence sitters one last chance to get in on low mortgage rates and gave folks in fixed income one last chance to get out.

    Plus one nice shot in arm of housing with stock surge to sell high and buy RE.

    I think he can keep this magic up at least till Oct, till he has to taper or tamper who knows.

    Also a shot in arm for Sandy towns who are trying to do bond issues and got caught with pants down when yields surged, also big shot in arm for pension funds.

    GM Pension fund July 2013 vs July 2008 is NIGHT and DAY. Five years they solved a 50 year problem.

  55. JJ says:

    What goes into 13 twice?

    Anon E. Moose says:
    July 11, 2013 at 3:05 pm

    Rags [52];

    Anon will get back to you right after he’s done watching his Roman Polanski filmography.

  56. JJ says:

    Depeche Mode Mixes Sleaze With Doomy Rock on World Tour
    By Robert Heller – Jul 10, 2013 7:00 PM ET

    Doomy synths, swampy guitars and a grizzled gnome turning priapic pirouettes: Depeche Mode is once again having its deviant way with electro-pop. This approach has certainly paid commercial dividends. Its artistic merits are less convincing.

    Easily dismissed as a cult alternative band, Depeche Mode has a huge audience. In the mid 1980s the British band darkened its perky synthpop with a heady swirl of religion, kinky sex and industrial clanking.
    Enlarge image Depeche Mode

    Martin Gore and Dave Gahan of Depeche Mode. Their Delta Machine tour sees 89 arenas this year. Photographer: Jason Merritt/Getty Images
    Enlarge image Depeche Mode

    Lead singer Dave Gahan of British band Depeche Mode. The group’s 2013 tour visits Spain, Portugal France, Italy and the Czech Republic. Photographer: Valery Hache/AFP/Getty Images

    A fiercely devoted fanbase flocks to the band’s notoriously long tours. The Delta Machine tour has some 89 arena dates stretching throughout 2013; about 24 North American shows will take place from mid-August to October.

    Dressed in black, band members Andy Fletcher and Martin Gore stand behind plain synthesizers. No laptops in evidence. Melodies and noises are played the old-fashioned way. The addition of a drummer is a concession to beefier live sound.

    With mundane backing videos and no stage props, the show depends on singer Dave Gahan. Luckily he delivers sleazy confessions and brooding pop while prancing around like Freddie Mercury reincarnated as a seahorse. No stranger to excessive rock ‘n’ roll excess, his well-weathered features have more than a hint of a gnarly garden ornament. He wears Cuban heels and waistcoat, no shirt.
    Jesus Stomp

    Gahan perfectly inhabits the frantic synth riffs of “A Question of Time,” a song about the legal tribulations of teenage lust, and the turpitude of “Policy of Truth.” He is equally convincing in the grungy stomp of “Personal Jesus.”

    He fares less well in the newer songs, with their emphasis on swampy, bluesy guitars. Mode’s lusts are too esoteric to be convincingly earthy. Whatever the merits of his songwriting, Gore’s guitar playing remains limited. His basic twanging soon becomes tiresome. A plethora of songs from the new CD is a reminder that Mode albums have often been patchy.

    Even some classic tracks disappoint. “Enjoy the Silence,” one of the most entrancing synthpop songs ever written, sounds devastatingly routine; the fizz of “Just Can’t Get Enough” is flat and tired. “Never Let Me Down Again” is shorn of its bombast power and militaristic frisson, becoming just another flabby singalong. Depeche Mode fans deserve something better.

  57. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “Rates going higher means we have inflation. Inflation means home prices rise. Look at years 1999 and 2000.”

    If housing had been allowed to correct I would agree with you that housing prices would rise with higher rates. I doubt that happens though with the way the housing market has been propped up the past 10-12 years. Absent the low rates where is the demand going to come from.

  58. JJ says:

    SocGen hikes year-end 10-year yield call to 3.25%

    wouldnt this means homes should be rising 3.25% on average next ten years? That is the historical non-bubble average

  59. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    [52] Ragnar

    LOL! Quite the smackdown.

  60. Juice Box says:

    re: # 57 – ” taper or tamper who knows.”

    It would not surprise me if the next Fed Chair has to double-down before this is all over or inflated away just like the Bank of Japan. History Rhymes…

  61. Ragnar says:

    I nominate this guy as the least funny cartoonist in the universe. Fabmax and Anon the Lefty should be spending more time at the NY Times forums
    The Strip by Braian McFadden shows what an echo chamber for lefty thought the NY Times and its readership has become. Yet on 7/8 even he criticized the big O.
    http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2012/07/08/opinion/sunday/the-strip.html?ref=sunday&_r=0#1

  62. gator (51)-

    Why wouldn’t people pay through their noses to live in a Bolshevist town teetering on the brink of insolvency with a 50% commercial RE vacancy rate and taxes spiraling out of control?

  63. Montklair is the classic case of a huge pile of shit looking preferable to a giant hill of fire ants.

  64. And those Baristafart clowns can shove it up their arses and rotate.

  65. Anon E. Moose says:
  66. maybe buyer says:

    Numbers tell a different story. There were 65 “under contracts” in May and 47 in June. This is 30% decrease month to month. Sounds like a collapse to me.

    —————————–
    Realtors Rave About Hot Housing Market In Montclair, Glen Ridge
    http://www.baristanet.com/2013/07/realtors-rave-about-hot-housing-market-in-montclair-glen-ridge

  67. Anon E. Moose says:

    George W. Bush is the gift that keeps on giving to left-leaning college faculty intent on proclaiming their moral superiority.

    Carroll: Bush league protest at DU – The Denver Post

    >A group of 20 or so faculty members of the graduate school also issued a letter to university officials last week declaring that they were “shocked, disappointed and embarrassed” that the award would be given to, in the words of Korbel professor Alan Gilbert, “an unrepentant war criminal who violated the convention against torture.”<

    No comment from the faculty on the current administration of President Dronestrike.

  68. Libtard at home says:

    JJ…I think you just killed ChiFi.

  69. Brian says:

    Thank you uncle Ben.

  70. Let’s give Egypt five fighter planes. Nothing could go wrong with that.

  71. Ben says:

    Paul Krugman is just a mean girl in general. That and he’s a cat person. I swear, there is no redeeming quality about him….

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