From HousingWire:
NAR’s chief economist said what about the housing market
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, caught HousingWire’s eye with his recent remarks at the Alabama Commercial Real Estate conference.
Yun gave a decidedly candid assessment of the state of the economy, housing and commercial real estate with a little more red meat, with a little less of the positive that normally comes out of the NAR press room.
HousingWire caught up with Yun Monday and asked him to expand on the central question of his remarks – “Why does it feel like we’re still in a recession?”
“Looking at the economy, last year was overall a sub-par performance with 2% GDP. That is below the historical norm of 3% and it’s been several years of under 3% growth,” he said.
Unemployment is a key factor here, he said.
“This recovery is not feeling right even though unemployment has been declining measurably – from 10% at its peak to 6.6%,” Yun said. “But if you look at the employment rate – not the unemployment rate – you look at how many in the adult population have jobs, and we have not made any progress since the depression began. We are only at 58% of the adult population working now, same as it was in the depth of the recession, and well below the historical trend of 63%.”
And then there is the consumer spending piece of the puzzle.
“Consumer spending has been so-so, muddling along,” he said. “It is implying that consumers are cautious and less confident about the economy.”
That can be seen in business spending, too.
“More importantly with business spending there is a mismatch of the historical relationship between business investment and corporate profit,” Yun said. “”Business investment should follow profit, and that’s not happening. Profit is up but businesses aren’t spending. It implies that businesses are less confident.”
Despite the lack of confidence and the hollow unemployment rate improvement, he still expects growth in 2014.
…
“Housing affordability is coming down. You have mortgage rates and prices rising in 2014 but it will take growth and job creation on the other side,” he said. “For the year as a whole I think it will be neutral on housing prices.”Yun said he is already seeing softness in housing readings for the first quarter, and hopes the remainder of the year will be strong enough to balance it out.
What is it about Yellen that makes everyone want to portray her as some kind of S&M dominatrix? This may be worse than the Clinton saggy ass comments.
@ianbremmer: Share of income going to Top 1% in US
1975 – 9%
2014 – 22%
In The Son Also Rises, which publishes later this month, Clark argues that researchers have vastly underestimated how hard it has been—and how hard it remains—for someone born into a low-status situation to ascend the social ranks. His results come from tracking the historical incidence of surnames across generations of tax rolls, university enrollment logs, and professional society membership lists in various countries. I called Clark to talk about his findings and the new book, which veers into areas of academic inquiry that some readers may find a bit uncomfortable.
Mother Jones: How much of a consensus is there among economists that any American can go from rags to riches?
Gregory Clark: Conventional studies suggest that we live in highly mobile societies: Within two or three generations, your family history is really not going to matter.
MJ: And those findings have been used to justify a kind of callousness: Why bother helping people if anybody can be successful, so long as they try hard enough?
GC: Right.
MJ: But your results are at odds with that.
GC: What I find is that the actual underlying rates of social mobility are much smaller than all these studies find. There’s a very high correlation of status across generations. The data suggest that more than half your overall lifetime status is predictable at the point you are conceived. And that number is just as big in Sweden, and just as big in medieval England. We have not in modern high-income, public-education, open-access societies actually managed to increase the rate of social mobility above what it was in preindustrial society.
Shirley Temple < Vigoda
Didn’t I post a piece the other day indicating a greater than 10% chance for someone in this area to go all the way from the lowest income quintile to the top income quintile? That’s pretty damn good odds if you ask me. As expensive as this area is, we’ve also got opportunity. That doesn’t exist in the lower-cost areas to the south.
I worked with tons of folks whose parents were dirt poor. Folks whose parents were in concentration camps and had CEO kids.
2.anon (the good one) says:
February 11, 2014 at 7:32 am
@ianbremmer: Share of income going to Top 1% in US
1975 – 9%
2014 – 22%
yes, but you also said that back in the day a high school diploma was sufficient to work in WS. nowadays, you also said, need a mba from an ivy to get a chance.
JJ says:
February 11, 2014 at 7:56 am
I worked with tons of folks whose parents were dirt poor. Folks whose parents were in concentration camps and had CEO kids.
2.anon (the good one) says:
February 11, 2014 at 7:32 am
@ianbremmer: Share of income going to Top 1% in US
1975 – 9%
2014 – 22%
Why is this a problem? How would you solve it?
2.anon (the good one) says:
February 11, 2014 at 7:32 am
@ianbremmer: Share of income going to Top 1% in US
1975 – 9%
2014 – 22%
Is it possible that the US experienced a “special” period from say 1945 to 1970 (prior to oil shock) that was not typical?
yes your honor this man has no dick
I am so tired of this argument. Me single parent home mom worked two jobs to put food on the table, went to lousy school district. Every metric states I should be collecting welfare, 40 pounds overweight and an ensconsed poor person perpetuating that problem.
You either except your lot in life or work to change it. the conversation should focus on barriers to mobility not that the upper class has a lot of wealth. Regulation, licensing, lobbying, corporatocracy those are the real enemies not the wealthy
I think you hit it….remove barriers to mobility….not tax the rich or punish success….. That doesn’t bring anyon up…it just attempts to bring some people down….
Make it easier to start/run and own a business.
11.Painhrtz – Disobey! says:
February 11, 2014 at 8:55 am
I am so tired of this argument. Me single parent home mom worked two jobs to put food on the table, went to lousy school district. Every metric states I should be collecting welfare, 40 pounds overweight and an ensconsed poor person perpetuating that problem.
You either except your lot in life or work to change it. the conversation should focus on barriers to mobility not that the upper class has a lot of wealth. Regulation, licensing, lobbying, corporatocracy those are the real enemies not the wealthy
I think this presents a good an explanation as exists for what is currently happening to create the polarized class structure in the country. It’s naturally going to occur unless policies are designed to stop or slow it.
Immorally low capital gains taxes, endless bailouts for Wall St, and ZIRP have sped the process. I think there are several other causes(estate tax loopholes, automation, globalization) but I think the three listed first are the most obvious and preventable causes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-04/is-inequality-approaching-a-tipping-point-.html
There you have it….all you have to do is work harder than the next guy and you will be rich too….lmao People who believe this are naive or just plain stupid. The wealthy love people that believe this crap. The people that believe this will work much harder and make their bosses that much more money, while at the same time, go nowhere in terms of class movement. That’s what is great about the American Dream, it makes the lower classes that much more productive due to the fact that these workers think they can be rich too with hard work.
“GC: What I find is that the actual underlying rates of social mobility are much smaller than all these studies find. There’s a very high correlation of status across generations. The data suggest that more than half your overall lifetime status is predictable at the point you are conceived. And that number is just as big in Sweden, and just as big in medieval England. We have not in modern high-income, public-education, open-access societies actually managed to increase the rate of social mobility above what it was in preindustrial society.”
Just like when some parents say their kids are poor test takers.
The truth is the mom or dad have stupidity in there genes and passed it on to their kids.
Nothing wrong with being poor. Poor and unmotivated is the problem. All societies become decadent and lazy over time. This is why a constant stream of hungry immigrants is necessary.
Michael [14];
all you have to do is work harder than the next guy and you will be rich too….lmao People who believe this are naive or just plain stupid.
You know what’s really stupid? Anyone thinking they are entitled to be righter than anyone else WITHOUT working harder than the next guy. What’s stupid are the welfare clients who believe what Democrats tell them: government will make you rich WITHOUT working harder than the next guy… just vote for the ‘right’ people.
Redux [17]
righter -> richer
16- Exactly, this is why the American Dream made this country great during the 1900s. It kept the poor motivated to work hard. It help attract immigrants that knew hard work would pay off. It allowed hard working small business owners access to quality workers who were looking to work hard to improve their life. All of this is much different today.
When social mobility goes out the door and it’s the same rich families holding the wealth, generation after generation, the poor become unmotivated. What’s the point of working hard if chances are you will go nowhere.
“Nothing wrong with being poor. Poor and unmotivated is the problem. All societies become decadent and lazy over time. This is why a constant stream of hungry immigrants is necessary.”
Sweet talk the HR gals is all you need to do. Some interviews you have to lick two lips some interviews you have to lick four lips, really good jobs require six lips.
However, the chocolate lips are some nasty hard licking.
1975 was a severe recession year. But in retrospect, Richard Nixon must have done a hell of a job to appease the social equality types. Didn’t he, Anon?
I see a different culture now, especially in light of the Spanish in-migration. It seems they are motivated just enough to be able to afford an apartment (they don’t care to own a house as much). Their families stick together which is fine, up to a point, but they keep that family housed under one roof. There is no determination to set oneself on a separate path and try harder.
How do I see this first hand? I hire them in my side business.
On the other hand, the native white kids tend to work not as hard while they are young. But soon as they start fathering and that little girl needs something, they start busting their butts. They wake up to the realities.
Biggest problem I find now for younger kids are as follows.
First they major in what they want in college and go to college they want to. Rather than the college and major that gets them highest paying job. Right there they start in a hole.
Then they have the whole work/life balance self entitlement stuff going on. When I graduated school I was told dress and act like the job you want not the job you have.
You would see me coming into work same time as boss when I was 23, in a pressed suit, white shirt, crisp tie with Wall Street Journal under one arm and coffee in the other.
Honestly, I started day ahead of everyone.
Finally kids are no longer good at “Face Time”. They want to just do their work and leave. Or work from home if no reason to come to office. Or if big snow storm etc. dress in Jeans or come in late or work from home.
I recall a project I did at Goldman where Facetime was big. People who finished work up by 5:30 pm still stayed till eight pm. Some closed office doors, balanced check books, did MBA home work etc.
Other thing I noticed a way less amount of kids ‘under 40″ who only have an undergraduate degree are not pursuing masters. C-level and Head of jobs usually need board approval or comp committee approval. Remember, they are just taking the word of your boss you are smart and a hard worker they like to see cold hard facts. My buddy who is a CFO has a CPA and a MBA from NYU and eight years big four experience on top of being a good worker. The folks who hired him if he screws up can say well we hired a very qualified person and did due diligence.
I also notice much less kids are willing to do “grunt” work. Those long miserable hours jobs that give you street cred at a young age.
Folks dont realize it is hard to get promoted after 35, very hard to get promoted after 40 and nearly impossible after 50. Clock is running when they get a job at 22. Yet kids are taking 5-6 years to do college, then taking easy 9-5 jobs in surburbs and then by the time they get married at 34 and decide now it time to get busting on career they realize the plane is landing and they are short on runway
JJ,
You are one twisted bird.
The problem with motivation is that it will always be indiviual. Some people might be happy forever with govt. cheese, some not. Some figure it out early, some lare, some never..blanket policies won’t work. I do wish there was some taxation to motivate my lazy brother in law to work. He has not held job in years waiting for grandpappys fortune to be passed down. He is 45 with twobkids. My sister works like a slave to provide their income.
Nixon interupted a good epidsode of the Hudsons Brothers shows to resign. He could have done it earlir in day not to interupt my show.
21.xolepa says:
February 11, 2014 at 9:57 am
1975 was a severe recession year. But in retrospect, Richard Nixon must have done a hell of a job to appease the social equality types. Didn’t he, Anon?
I should have married your sister. This work stuff sucks
24.Bystander says:
February 11, 2014 at 10:05 am
JJ,
You are one twisted bird.
The problem with motivation is that it will always be indiviual. Some people might be happy forever with govt. cheese, some not. Some figure it out early, some lare, some never..blanket policies won’t work. I do wish there was some taxation to motivate my lazy brother in law to work. He has not held job in years waiting for grandpappys fortune to be passed down. He is 45 with twobkids. My sister works like a slave to provide their income.
NJ Tired Old White Guy Report
Shouldn’t you be happy that there are stupid people on welfare? One less guy in the game to compete with.
Welfare is not really a glamorous situation that anyone should be jealous of. The minute someone becomes dependent on welfare is the minute they gave up their ambition to get rich. They have thrown in the towel. They have given up hopes for a good life and have accepted their fate in life.
Not everyone gets to be the lucky rich guy in a capitalist system. For every rich guy created, our country must create a legion of poor workers to support this rich guy. You have to have a large supply of poor individuals to support the rich. The larger the rich class gets, the larger the poor class must grow. BS you say? Then I ask a simple question, if everyone works hard, can everyone be rich? Is it possible? If not, why?
I guess it makes wealthy people feel better about themselves to acknowledge that people are poor due to being lazy as opposed to the fundamentals of the economic system in which they thrive. Basically, it’s easier to blame someone for being lazy than to blame yourself for that person’ situation. If you are rich, you are causing people to be poor, whether you like it or not.
“You know what’s really stupid? Anyone thinking they are entitled to be righter than anyone else WITHOUT working harder than the next guy. What’s stupid are the welfare clients who believe what Democrats tell them: government will make you rich WITHOUT working harder than the next guy… just vote for the ‘right’ people.”
Chi…you still think NJTransit is reliable.
Yesterday I got into work over an hour late as we were routed to Hoboken and brought in on a track that I swear was in Jersey City. It was a ten minute walk alone from where we got off the train, to the entrance for the PATH. Of course the PATH system was a giant cluster-F at this point. On the way home, no explanation, but we crawled all the way to Newark. Train arrived in Bloomfield almost 30 minutes late (on a 12 mile commute, mind you). This morning, another twenty-five minute delay on the ride in Gator tells me. 0 for 3 to start the week and last week was no picnic either. By the way, yesterday’s commute in was a standing ride for so many that conductors couldn’t check tickets. I swear, NJTransit is really turning into a 3rd world commute on our line.
NJ Tired Old White Guy Report
It takes a tremendous amount of time and energy to continuously supply the Bomma gravy train.
No, but you will have a good shot at it if you make the right decisions…and even if you don’t become rich you might just live a good honest life…
To me, that’s a better path to a happy life….I’d rather live in a capitalist country where I’ve got a shot, a right to pursue happiness…..rather than someplace where everything is handed to me.
14.Michael says:
February 11, 2014 at 9:25 am
There you have it….all you have to do is work harder than the next guy and you will be rich too
The unspoken truth about wealth mobility is that low income groups typically have habits, beliefs, and customs that keep them poor. And for a kid to move up materially, he or she has to basically break with the culture he or she was born into. Roughly 80% of kids adopt the same religion their parents had. So only about 20% break away from the imposition of irrational and life destroying religious beliefs. Why should it be surprising that only 10% to 20% of kids break away from irrational and life destroying economic habits?
I put the blame on the parents. People think it’s ok to praise parents who teach their kids values in life that help them build healthy and productive lives for themselves. Then why isn’t it ok to condemn the parents who teach by example the habits of sloth, irrationality, and leech-like dependency on others?
Anon – F-you and Mother Jones too! And to those leech-breeders in Camden and wherever else they exist. Their kids are getting what their parents have sown. Camden has bike paths running to public libraries, right? Sorry kids born there, you need to say F-you to your family and friends and exile yourself from them and figure out for yourself how to do something useful. Maybe your $180k/yr guidance counselor has some advice.
Libtard,
I’ve been taking the main line in to Hoboken for a month straight with no issues really, so far. Nothing major, anyway. This is new to me as I’ve never taken NJ transit before, always drove to work. What’s the deal with your commute? Why the issues?
Ragnar [32],
Excellent! Right on the money!
Ragnar. Your a Racist : )! but dead on nuts correct.
“People who believe this are naive or just plain stupid.”
Then call me stupid. I have a coworker who was raised in a shitty part of Brooklyn. His parents are ultra, ultralibs. How liberal? His mom was arrested as a freedom fighter in Mississippi in 62. He presents these same claims as Michael/Anon does. Everything that is wrong with society is the fault of the rich. And he is 100% against public worker pension reform because they are the middle classes last stand. Blah, blah, blah. I’ll mention how crappy my commute has become and his explanation is that CEO’s make too much money and he frequently compares the average CEO pay to that of the average teacher. When I mention that there are probably 1000 times more teachers than CEOs, it simply doesn’t matter to him. Math never matters to him and his types. What matters is what he reads on TPM. When I mention how the average cop takes home 20 times what he pays in to his pension, well it’s the fault of the Koch’s, Buffetts’ and Gates’.
His parents chose to raise his son in the ghetto. Nearly every school day, this scrawny Jewish white kid got his ass beat down. It’s his big complaint about his parents, but he is truly a member of the entitled Obamaphone crowd.
Well, his jealousy of me is unparallelled. He doesn’t understand how a kid who graduated from Montclair State could be doing as well as I am. He frequently calls me “lucky.” I always remind him that I worked my ass off for the first five and one half years of my professional career. Frequently working 16 hours days, 6 or 7 days a week, for $18,000 per year. I lived in a basement (which was illegal) in what was essentially a frat house in Clifton where I could walk to the train (made a fake rail pass every month, since my commute absorbed nearly 10% of my net income). The house had 3 bedrooms but 6 tenants. It was a frat before I lived there, but all of the kids still living there graduated and just stayed. Needless to say, a lot of weed was smoked and beer was drunk and there were at least two major parties a month. There was also a lot of fukcing on the pool table, but that’s a story for another time. Getting back to the theme, I was not given a lot of responsibility in my first professional job. I simply took it. I turned my 2-person print production/prepress department into a 5-person team that was carrying the internet department, receptionist, office manager, one designer and of course, the owner. We became more of a print-broker than a prepress team and took the middle man commissions in exchange for the responsibility of getting the jobs done quickly and accurately. I developed a relationship with the most inexpensive gang job printer in Lubbock, Texas who had the fanciest waterless presses and the absolute cheapest labor in the country. Though he ganged jobs (meaning that her printed multiple jobs on the same press sheet to save on time and paper costs), he always ran the color to match my work and let the other work fall as is. Customers thought we were printing in New York and the quality was better than anything anyone had in Manhattan. We got our proofs and service bureau work done from a Japanese outfit in the 30s who were dirt cheap and also had superior equipment and immediate turnaround times. Reading the invoices was always tricky, but those guys worked like dogs. We did higher quality work than the major advertising agencies, both quicker and at a tenth or less of their prices. We made inroads with Conde Nast, Meredith, AOL, BMG (remember them?) etc., all in a one room suite on 44th Street, where we would rarely let the clients see this sweat shop. During the Summer, we couldn’t run the AC because all of the Macs would crash. I would often work in the hallway. Of the 5 people in my department, two of them currently work for me at my financial printer and a 3rd used to, but became a nurse. Why wouldn’t I give my former employees the opportunity to make some real money. They worked as hard as I did.
Michael, I could have worked a seven-hour day, blamed my government, Wall Street, the income gap, wasted my money on crap I didn’t need like the rest of your generation of progressives. Instead, I didn’t vacation, I lived with roomates until I was 33 and still drive my POS Civic. So call me stupid! But at least I’m not clueless.
“And for a kid to move up materially, he or she has to basically break with the culture he or she was born into.”
My 5 year stint living in the ghetto of JC made this all to clear. Kids would have $150 sneakers and little to eat. School was an afterthought. Which is why throwing money at the schools was a complete waste. I wonder sometimes if Anon and Michael ever lived anywhere away from their kind?
(36) How’s this about working hard, landlord version: Had to replace two leaking above ground oil tanks this winter. I am too cheap to pay for new ones (min $600+ each + installation) so searched around, Craigslist mostly. Found the tanks, barely used, each with recent inspection stickers. Homeowners converted from oil to gas. Had to lift each tank with my 70 year old neighbor and transport them via trailer. Neighbor, btw, is a multimillionaire and a true grit guy, Pingry graduate. All he wanted in return was a stop at the local bar and tavern.
Unhooked and drained old tanks and personally piped updated ones. In dead of winter. Heat back. tenants happy. I saved some $$. It’s the entrepreneurial way. Busted my ass.
Also, piped in new gas boiler myself for 3rd tenant several weeks ago. Only help needed on that one was getting it into the basement. So why are some people more successful than others?
Gary,
If you commute into Hoboken it’s a beautiful thing. Though, less and less trains go there by design. NJTransit is hell bent on collecting that under the river fare that the Port Authority gets from Hoboken to PATH commuters. They’ve significantly reduced the number of trains that run to Hoboken on our line and they moved their times later and later. To make matters worse, the Hoboken trains are all scheduled behind our New York trains which means our Hoboken trains are often delayed too. On our line, the Hoboken trains (3 car sets) pull into track 18 behind a full set. It takes ten minutes to walk to the PATH (outside) and syncs up with the PATH horribly. Just getting from the train to the PATH takes ten minutes and it’s usually another ten minute wait before the PATH leaves for 33rd Street. Then it’s up 80 steps at Christopher Street and a ten-minute walk outside to Houston. Just the time it takes me to go from Hoboken to Houston Street takes almost forty minutes. I usually go this way in the Fall and the Spring to avoid the NJTransit delays, but it is simply too warm and too cold in the other seasons. It’s all moot come April. My office is moving to Columbus Circle so the MTA comes into the picture now.
Lib wrote something similar to this in response to Michael but it fell into the internet void.
All ever needed to know about living on welfare was brought to the forefront when I delivered food in Passaic. Dump apartments with large screen TVs and cable. Luxury cars in the parking lots, 150 dollar sneakers, 100 jeans and this was in 1992 dollars. I worked 2 jobs in the summer and went to school full time plus a job rest of the year. Took a 10 dollar an hour job ouot of college and worked plenty of 15 and 16 hour days on the way up. Hell I still pull alot of 10s and 12s on an exempt salary but I’m lucky to have my job according to the current crop of progressives. Difference between the Ghetto kids and me besides the work ethic, i took advantage of pell grants and works studies to change my station in life. Realized it was a marathon and not a sprint and I really did not need a lot of things. that in the end is all they are is just things.
By the way, adding to my hard work story. When I started at my current employ of the past 15 years, I busted my ass and did really well. They were grooming me for an executive role. I attended many PMO sessions, learned 6-sigma, Lean, TQM, etc. Then about 8 years ago, I developed a strong working relationship with one exec from Boston. He warned me not to go that track with this company. It’s a brutal work schedule and you will miss your kids getting raised. He also said it couldn’t work with a wife at home. Point blank, I went to management and told them if they covered both Gator and my salary, I would do it and would move to St. Paul where my company is headquartered. They wouldn’t do it. Which is probably a good thing. I love being able to watch Gator Jr’s hockey practices and games. I like having my weekends back. I can bust my ass again when the younger one gets into college, or just retire down in Central America once the multi is sold. Speaking of, I have to fix a leaky sink after work tonight. Totally forgot about the email they sent me on Saturday. Anon, Michael, do you do anything outside of work besides read Mother Jones and watch MSNBC?
BearsFan…..are we linked on Linked-In…..I think I just figured out who you are…..you wrote CU and I mistook that for Cornell, you meant Columbia right?
Pain…yup, “People who believe this are naive or just plain stupid.”
Michael…think ChiFi is going to give BearsFan a job or somethin?
I am happy there are stupid people. Even in work. Every company needs 90% cube dwellers. Folks who are happy to sit in cubes and do their cube thing 9-5 pm and make nuts and bolts of company run. There are only enough high paying jobs for 10% of the folks. So the 10% that get ahead matches the 10% of good jobs.
Lets pretend you have a little area with two staff members and you have two openings.
Hire two hard driven go-getters you have two snakes in the same room one will bite the others head off. It will cause you a world of grief as they battle each other for pay raises and promotions and stab each other in the back. Eventually both lose or one win. If one wins he will be soon after your job.
Hire two cube dwellers not much get done and your own promotion and bonus suffers or your are stuck chipping in to help them finish their jobs.
Hire one go getter and one cube dweller things work better, you have room to promote the go gettr, cube dweller does note care and once go getter promoted he has cube dweller to kick every day to get them to work. Also keeps him from focusing on your job as he has cube dweller to deal with.
I even once worked with an IVY league cube deweller. Biggest mystery. Nice pretty girl, friendly, started at firm at 22, and come 32 still sitting in a cube doing same exact thing. She just likes to roll in do her time and roll out, chat on the phone a bit. She has plenty of outside activities a rent stablized apt in Brooklyn, no car so costs are low. And her hobbies are not expensive ones. But guess what she got three or four people promoted as she cleared the path. She is odd as on paper she would distroy competition. but she does not care much.
One last one for ChiFi…Think we should be selling our GMCR? Our club meeting is on Thursday.
Never like Columbia. Lots of dykes in Flannel and jewish nerdy guys with cheesy clothes and Jewfros
I would say Vilanova girls are my favorite ones to hire.
42.chicagofinance says:
February 11, 2014 at 11:39 am
BearsFan…..are we linked on Linked-In…..I think I just figured out who you are…..you wrote CU and I mistook that for Cornell, you meant Columbia right?
“Hire one go getter and one cube dweller things work better, you have room to promote the go gettr, cube dweller does note care and once go getter promoted he has cube dweller to kick every day to get them to work. Also keeps him from focusing on your job as he has cube dweller to deal with.”
Exactly what I do. Problem is, my go-getters are starting to get peeved at the lack of motivation and aptitude of the cube dwellers and I end up having to manage these relationships.
Here’s a dumb email I had to write this morning for my blue collar manufacturing team that illustrates the issue. The 1st shift lead wrote me a two page letter this morning essentially saying he’s sick of the 3rd shift lead not pulling his weight. We’ve been through this before and I have asked the 1st shift lead to work it out with him personally already.
—
Team,
Please do your part to ensure the Prepress Department is prepared for the start of the next shift prior to your departure. This includes filling the platesetters, filling the printers and cleaning up your work area. There is enough downtime in the department for this to happen with regularity. It’s a much better work environment if we watch each other’s backs, rather than to run under the operating standard of he didn’t do it for me, so I’m not going to do it for him. Let’s strive to work together as a team.
—
I know what you are going to say. Fire the thirdrd shift lead. But he’s really good and works an average 65 hours per week for me and is very competent with the work. He’s just lazy about maintenance and has a bad attitude. Which is why he is on third shift in the first place.
Xolepa:
To your point you got to understand the following, and you’ll see that it really is >”When social mobility goes out the door and it’s the same rich families holding the wealth, generation after generation, the poor become unmotivated. What’s the point of working hard if chances are you will go nowhere.
The historian Neill Fergusson had a cable show series where he discusses the “apps of success” of western civilization. In it he compares 1 points that applied to the northern/southern American Hemisphere divide.
First, Greater England’s indenture servants if they came to the new world, were to work for 5 yrs, gain their freedom and they would get title to 100 acres of land. The Spanish conquistadors had the “enmienda”/amienda?” system. One signed by the king gave the 30 square miles of land to a connected/ newly created aristocrat, another signed by the Pope that gave ownership of all life and souls to that same person.
Add to that the many English Kings that were wacked by their own population/aristocracy when they overstepped their perceived authority. The Spanish Crown lost its position and colonies in the early 1800’s by stupidity. Napoleon asked the Spanish king if he could send its army through spain on the way to invade Portugal and he agreed. Napoleon sent in his troops, but they stay in and conquered Spain.
Even the rise of the George Washington of South America -> Simon Bolivar was tinged by this view point. Bolivar controlled a country made up of present Colombia, Panama, Venenzuela, Peru, Ecuador & Bolivia ( I might be wrong on one of these). Bolivar lost power because he wanted everything centralized and controlled from Caracas, essentially a “king” in everything but name. The ex-aristrocrats /oligarchs that had signed up for Bolivar’s project thought it was going to be like the USA. Once they realize Bolivar’s intention they bailed out.
But all of the history reinforces the point that the game is rigged, so do enough to survive because there is no point in trying harder.
xolepa says:
February 11, 2014 at 10:03 am
I see a different culture now, especially in light of the Spanish in-migration. It seems they are motivated just enough to be able to afford an apartment (they don’t care to own a house as much). Their families stick together which is fine, up to a point, but they keep that family housed under one roof. There is no determination to set oneself on a separate path and try harder.
How do I see this first hand? I hire them in my side business
“But all of the history reinforces the point that the game is rigged, so do enough to survive because there is no point in trying harder.”
Come on now. We all can’t be kings.
Lib i always come back to this quote
Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as “bad luck.”
— Robert Heilein
Pain…I’ve seen that before. Probably here.
We all deserve to drive Cadillac ELR’s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGJSI48gkFc&list=PLONsyQ0cLqNEpRYNgZtbQbrxASEjK2U3l&feature=player_embedded
Still remember the sister of one of my apartmentmates at Cornell was visiting on a college visiting tour…she had just come from Barnard…..I asked her what did she think? She said….”they all had split-ends….don’t they know what conditioner is?” I friggin’ took a sh!t…..
JJ says:
February 11, 2014 at 11:44 am
Never like Columbia. Lots of dykes in Flannel and jewish nerdy guys with cheesy clothes and Jewfros
I would say Vilanova girls are my favorite ones to hire.
42.chicagofinance says:
February 11, 2014 at 11:39 am
BearsFan…..are we linked on Linked-In…..I think I just figured out who you are…..you wrote CU and I mistook that for Cornell, you meant Columbia right?
Any recommendations on a good granite sealer?
Dude…..I just checked out your office….you look as if you could kick the sh!t out of all them single handed…..I don’t think I will fcuk with you….
chicagofinance says:
February 11, 2014 at 11:39 am
BearsFan…..are we linked on Linked-In…..I think I just figured out who you are…..you wrote CU and I mistook that for Cornell, you meant Columbia right?
I have a Jewfro……I have to gel it down….
JJ says:
February 11, 2014 at 11:44 am
jewish nerdy guys with cheesy clothes and Jewfros
36- So basically, you had no life. When you are old and dying one day, you will realize how foolish it is to live like you are not even alive. Glad you saved a buck or two. Pat your self on the shoulder for driving a pos car that some minority from Paterson should be driving. You don’t live forever, being that cheap is just a waste of life. Why do you work so hard if you choose to live like a bum? Work hard if you are going to improve your quality of life. If you are going to save it all, save yourself some time, and quit your job. You don’t need all that money.
“Michael, I could have worked a seven-hour day, blamed my government, Wall Street, the income gap, wasted my money on crap I didn’t need like the rest of your generation of progressives. Instead, I didn’t vacation, I lived with roomates until I was 33 and still drive my POS Civic. So call me stupid! But at least I’m not clueless.”
To make the point further. Take a look at the important business leaders in latin america, and generally they are descendants of immigrant, not natives or spanish decendants. Case in point, Carlos Slim in Mexico, richest man in mexico outside of organized crime, his family immigrated from Syria to Mexico.
In fact, if you are cynical enough. You could say they are the perfect population for a future “Elysium” like world ruled by the 0.001% financial elites.
Use Tax Levied at Point of Purchase (JJ Edition):
What goes on at the Hustler Club may be one heck of a performance — but it’s not art.
That was the conclusion a Manhattan judge who listened – and watched — as a bevy of female strippers testified about the agility required for their risqué routines, all in an effort by their employers to skirt sales tax.
“The service provided by the entertainers at the Hustler Club is sexual fantasy, not dance,” administrative law judge Donna Gardiner ruled, ordering the W. 51st Street jiggle joint to fork over $2.1 million in back taxes.
An obscure state tax law waives fees for “live dramatic, choreographic or musical performance.”
But Judge Gardiner was apparently not amused by dancer Gina, who “discussed the agility required in order to perform her routine” or by Dawn, who “testified as to the actual movements performed by entertainers on the pole.”
Gardiner wrote, “This case involves charges for admission into a place of amusement, plain and simple”
“This adult entertainment establishment provides a service to its patrons that essentially boils down to performers who remove their clothing and create an aura of sexual fantasy,” Gardiner added.
Owners of the Hustler Club tried to duck sales and use taxes on $23.8 million in receipts from June 2006 to November 2008, derived from vouchers called “Beaver Bucks” that are used by patrons instead of cash.
The owners also hired a videographer to capture PG versions of their entertainment—with the women gyrating fully clothed while the club was closed and without the added theatrics of stage lighting.
The judge, likely the envy of her male colleagues, scrutinized the footage as evidence in the case.
She did allow a small nod to the hardworking women, writing in her decision, “I find that this service is delivered by means of a striptease act that incorporates some elements of dance and certainly choreography.”
An attorney for the Hustler Club declined to comment.
But she cited a Court of Appeals ruling from 2012 that found a pole dancing joint in Albany called Nite Moves also had to cough up the sales tax.
In that case Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s reps argued that the dancers are not “engaged in genuine choreographic dancer performance” when they strip down.
But Andrew McCullough, Nite Moves’ lawyer, countered in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, “If they’ve spent hours and hours practicing and learning this stuff, and if they can flip around and do amazing moves, why aren’t they choreographed dance performers?”
Lib,
Is this same company that scr*wed you on raises the few years. I only remember bc I worked at PW/Mellon/Buck years back and I got out bc of their slave wage treatment. Lots of people stayed for 20+ years though. No idea why the loyalty.
Do we know each other? I was from the legacy Kwasha Lipton side, which went to PWC, then Mellon, then ACS, then HPQ, now Xerox…..I still know quite a few of those people…I was there 90-95….
Bystander says:
February 11, 2014 at 1:20 pm
Lib, Is this same company that scr*wed you on raises the few years. I only remember bc I worked at PW/Mellon/Buck years back and I got out bc of their slave wage treatment. Lots of people stayed for 20+ years though. No idea why the loyalty.
Chi,
I recall this conversation. I worked for PW right before Mellon bought it. I stayed 2002 – 2004 right before ACS purchase. Harvey- H&W, Lynn S.- H&W, John T- Buck., Dave in IT prod support. Good folks. I could name more but do these ring a bell?
58 So much stupid I can’t even form a response
Columbia Univ. should be daisy-cuttered. Nothing but a bunch of self-loathing Jews who’d rather cheer for Ahmadinejad than stand up for anything other than their own bleating voices.
They also turn out a scary number of people who can write market-crashing algos and HFT programs.
I was DC area……
Jesse Y.
Lori D.
Bern U.
Bill K. (sleaze)
Jake K.
we were S-klar’s shop
Mark N.
Jeff Cr.
pain (64)-
Whenever I feel bad about something I’ve done, I come here for a quick Michael or anon pick-me-up. Those two regularly plumb new depths of stupid.
[58] “36- So basically, you had no life. When you are old and dying one day, you will realize how foolish it is to live like you are not even alive. Glad you saved a buck or two. Pat your self on the shoulder for driving a pos car that some minority from Paterson should be driving. You don’t live forever, being that cheap is just a waste of life. Why do you work so hard if you choose to live like a bum? Work hard if you are going to improve your quality of life. If you are going to save it all, save yourself some time, and quit your job. You don’t need all that money.”
I don’t even know where to begin.
I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul
The path is fcuked because they have to shut the front as there is a large amount of ice falling off WTC. Everyone has to exit via the Amex building and then cross the West Side Highway, because they tore out the footbridge when WTC topped out. Brilliant planning from the PA.
#32 Ragnar
I think you need to read “Off the books” to get a better understanding on what you are commenting on.
[9] Duh. We were the only major industrial power that was not war torn. The US just turned their factories over to making consumer goods while the rest of the world cleared rubble and started building new factories. Add in our abundance of open land and the fact that the US was the oil giant, no other economy had mad stacks of resources like us.
Is it possible that the US experienced a “special” period from say 1945 to 1970 (prior to oil shock) that was not typical?
Spine
I think a humanities department is missing it’s tenured idiots everytime I read one of their posts
36- “He presents these same claims as Michael/Anon does. Everything that is wrong with society is the fault of the rich.”
It is the fault of the rich. Do you think poor people affect policy? Do you think poor people get to make laws to their own benefit? Do you think the poor get to influence tax laws to their benefit? The wealthy ALWAYS HAVE and ALWAYS WILL control society.
Rob a bank for 5,000 and go to jail for life. Commit white collar fraud and steal millions, and end up with a slap on the wrist. Why is that? Because the rich make the laws of the game.
Listen, I am wealthy myself. I’m just not ignorant enough to blame poor people for my problems like a lot of out of touch wealthy individuals do. They blame poor people for their high taxes, while negating the fact that these same poor people are the reason this wealthy individual made that taxable income in the first place.
The phrase usually goes something along these lines, “I have to pay so much in taxes because this guy is on welfare”…blah blah. No, because this guy is on welfare, is part of the reason you are rich. He took the hit and is the unlucky person that has to be poor so someone can be rich. It’s a joke to hear wealthy people blame the poor for their problems, when in fact, the poor are the reason they are rich. You guys are so out of touch with reality.
#66,
I worked on H&W only during my 2 years. As you know, it was pretty segregated that way. I refer to my time there as highlighter monkey as they had no technology to check files before you printed them. Yep, we used to sit in a room and check 1000s of pages manually. So wasteful. I showed folks textpad, compare files feature. They thought I was god. Worst culture I have ever been part of..but you made friends for life.
so now your a self loathing rich person?
What laws or policies have you affected? What part(s) of society do you control… or do you control the whole thing?
Michael says:
February 11, 2014 at 2:48 pm
It is the fault of the rich. Do you think poor people affect policy? Do you think poor people get to make laws to their own benefit? Do you think the poor get to influence tax laws to their benefit? The wealthy ALWAYS HAVE and ALWAYS WILL control society.
Listen, I am wealthy myself.
“So basically, you had no life. When you are old and dying one day, you will realize how foolish it is to live like you are not even alive.”
Michael…I obviously struck a cord. You probably don’t realize it, but you are promoting some backwards society where those who work hard and save for a better tomorrow are lambasted. Those who sit on their ass and can only collect from the government t1t (which I might remind you, is paid for almost entirely through the taxation of those hard workers), deserve praise? They don’t get a fair chance?
Let me tell you a story of how unfair it’s gotten for us poor folk who had the unfortunate mishap of being born into the majority. When I was slaving on campus, yeah…I worked on campus during the Summers. I did it for the free, unairconditioned housing and board and so I could graduate without debt. Meanwhile, you partied, so you wouldn’t regret not having a fun life (even though you intend to completely fukc your offspring with your selfishness and complete lack of interest in bettering your social standing because you could always blame in on Wall Street and Uncle Sam). Well during these Summers, the EOF students were also living on campus. Not working real jobs, like me. They had work studies where they were paid to sit in a study hall where they did anything but study. Books? They received a $500 voucher per semester. I know. I would pay them $100 and they would buy my books with it which would cost about $250. They would spend the rest of it on sweatshirts and other non-essentials. I didn’t feel bad. They were going to fail out anyway. Nine out of ten EOF students do. Why? Because when you give someone something that they don’t have to work for, they have no vested interest in learning how to fish. I worked my ass off. I worked full time on campus and worked at the Willowbrook Mall. I graduated with honors. This is without loans, and without a handout from Uncle Sam. I didn’t need to shake down the rich to pay for my Summer camp up at college. And it’s why I am where I am today. I made more money by the time I was 22, then most make by the time they are 30. But I’m not bragging. It was the experience I gained that set me up for a successful career. And I had to spend all that money on tuition. My two roommates didn’t have to raise a finger to get their tuition, room and board paid their frosh year. And as a result, neither made it to their Sophomore year.
Reread this a few times. Maybe you will get it through your thick skull that the rich are not the reason the poor can’t get ahead. The poor have opportunities that are only provided thanks to the rich. Too bad the poor are too stupid to break from their culture of generational stupidity.
Either that, or I just got lucky.
F you Michael.
Right Fabmax, my own personal experiences and observations don’t count. Only an Ivy League professor of sociology who hangs out with Chicago gangs and then works for Chicago’s biggest gang leader ever, Oblamer, can really educate me of what the street is really like. Is that what you’re telling me? Because that’s insane.
My suspicion is that he would also tell Libtard that he was actually a winner of life’s lottery (using John Rawls’ theory) and he was genetically and sociologically predispositioned to being a hard worker and saver, so deserves no reward for doing so.
Like I said before, screw that.
“Sudhir Venkatesh is William B. Ransford Professor of Sociology & the Committee on Global Thought at Columbia University in the City of New York. He served as a Senior Advisor to the Department of Justice from 2009-2012.”
For seven years, sociologist Sudhir Venkatesh led a double life.
For days, Venkatesh stayed inside one of Chicago’s worst housing projects living with poor families and hanging out with gang members. Then he would return to the tony neighborhood of Hyde Park, where he was a graduate student at the University of Chicago.
Now a professor of sociology at Columbia University, Venkatesh ventured into Chicago’s Robert Taylor Homes housing project in the 1990s to do research for his doctorate. He befriended the leader of the Black Kings, one of the country’s largest and most violent crack-dealing gangs, and led the group for a day. Venkatesh’s new book, Gang Leader for a Day, captures his years inside the projects and how residents and gang members interacted, coexisted and raised families.
Venkatesh’s guide during his research was J.T., the leader of the Black Kings who took an interest in the budding academic and showed him the ropes inside the projects. Though J.T. had a college degree, he left corporate America to run a drug operation that made him up to $100,000 a year.
Over time, J.T. challenged Venkatesh academically, pushing him to think more clearly about urban poverty in America. And after a few years of friendship, J.T. handed Venkatesh the reins to his gang for a day, a job Venkatesh found wasn’t as easy as it looked.
Here’s an article where even the NY Times suggest this guy is a scam artist:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/nyregion/sudhir-venkatesh-columbias-gang-scholar-lives-on-the-edge.html?_r=0
Libtard,
Mike wanted you to stay on the government plantation with the rest of the “little people.” In his world view, little people like you are to be pitied and given government benefits, and in return, they know and stay in their positions, and vote for the people who pity and fund their lifestyles. And then sociology PhDs can write papers decrying how difficult the capitalists have made it for said people to improve their lot in life. Got it?
Lib, how can I convince you to read Atlas Shrugged? I think you’d like it.
Genetically and sociologically predispositioned is only a valid argument if you want food stamps and s8 housing or free tuition. Once you work hard to graduate from college or become the POTUS, then the argument falls flat.
I read Atlas Shrugged back in college. Though it’s been a while. Who has time to read? Let alone, proofread blog posts. I need to work hard so Michael can feel good about himself.
Doggie AromaTHERAPY Workshop
Now I can die.
Lib,
Atlas Shrugged, the second time is better than the first time. You do have another busy day of snowplowing ahead soon. But NJ transit delays are giving you more and more time for reading.
Only thing I’d change from that great post is that the middle/upper-middle class pay the cost of government… the ones below get the bread & circuses (well, we all get the circuses) and the connected ones get the benefit.
recap:
Wall Street = bailout, and never ending stream of .gov protected revenue
Poor = never ending handouts for appeasement
Middle class = the bill for the above
Libtard in Union says:
February 11, 2014 at 2:57 pm
“But NJ transit delays are giving you more and more time for reading.”
But then when will I have time to manage my fantasy Premier League Football team?
Perhaps the middle class could get together to form one large lobbying unit. Then we could actually have the laws changed to benefit us. Nah…too many Anon’s and Michaels who eat the crumbs and are convinced this is the case already.
Back to work. There’s a storm a brewing.
76- You are right, I haven’t, I guess this means I’m not wealthy.
So you think the legions of poor in America are affecting policies….do you know which lobbyists they are using?
“What laws or policies have you affected? What part(s) of society do you control… or do you control the whole thing?”
FWIW, I don’t find Michael stupid; he may be insensitive at times, but not stupid. I get where he is coming from and he articulates a view and position that is nuanced and thought-out; even if we don’t agree with his factual premises or conclusions, I have to respect that.
Reposting tweets as argument–now that’s stupid.
[77] Lib – BTW, Nobody fails out any more. If you pay (sign a loan doc), you stay. Living in Boston for 11 years now, rubbing elbows with students every day, overheard tons and tons of conversations (before they turned into screen zombies), have never overheard a single “So-and-so is failing out.”, “I’m on probation, I hope I don’t fail out”, etc. I overhear absolutely zero conversations of academic pressure or stress, and I ride the BC shuttle all the time.
They were going to fail out anyway.
[89] cont’d. And students don’t pay cash at the liquor store anymore either. Arms full of booze, while pushing two 30 packs along the floor while standing in a long line, nobody in the cash only line.
“legions of poor in America are affecting policies”
They sure are Michael. Every democrat has been buying their votes for the past 40 or so years through policies that both benefit them and keep them down. Wouldn’t want to risk losing the base by actually improving their quality of life. Send in your coin. Baa Baa.
Didn’t realize colleges don’t fail people anymore, but it makes perfect sense. That’s a lot of money they lose when Johny gets the boot.
[86] libtard,
“Back to work. There’s a storm a brewing.”
Gator posted a map that shows that we (Chesco, Philly, Bucks and Northern NJ) are right in the sweet spot for major snow. So I’m out prepping.
More on my response to Grim and his pigtail suggestion. As I noted, I did wire it up and the wiring was fine but the voltage drop was picked up by the system’s computer and it wouldn’t fire up. Lesson learned–must go thru house wiring and transfer switch.
Now I learned something new: My lack of perspicacity wouldn’t have mattered. This weekend, my wife was talking to the electrician’s wife (same electrician I approached about the transfer switch and load assessment) about the ice storm and power failures, and our decision to consider a standby generator, and she said “we’re on the list for a whole house generator.” Apparently even though he is an electrician, he is on a wait-list to get a standby generator, that is how bad the backlog is. (I’m sure he has a transfer switch and uses a portable; his house isn’t large at all, but damn).
[89] expat
” I overhear absolutely zero conversations of academic pressure or stress, and I ride the BC shuttle all the time.”
Doesn’t say much for the intellectual rigors of BC.
UMass, OTOH, will show you the door if you pull under a 3.0 for two consecutive semesters. I’ve known some absolutely brilliant people who bit off more than they could chew, couldn’t handle the workload, and flunked out. They were readmitted and finished fine but that was how tough this “safety school” was. In fact, though I took coursework at Harvard, Mount Holyoke, and Amherst, my grades there were uniformly better than my grades at UMass.
And I am sure, you want to get these praises every day.
The amount of hormone in the body can be measured by levels of IGF-1 (Insulin Growth
Factor). Quite simply, they were testing the hypothesis of whether human growth hormone and testosterone replacement supplementation combined provided improved body composition
– specifically, less fat and more muscle.
#88,
Is this the same Michael who told me I should buy a home because Uncle Sams magical inflation machine will make me rich? No, that Michael was stone stupid.
Nom – Wait list? A quick search on Amazon or Home Depot shows they have plenty of Generacs in stock. Perhaps your electrician is on a wait list to get a free one.
Bystander [95];
Michael may have just been along for the ride, but I remember well JJ’s investment advice of “Don’t Fight the Fed” (C, GM, etc.), and seemed to pan out pretty well notwithstanding that logic might suggest otherwise.
Michael,
Do you think poor people affect policy?
Take a look at the sh1t in the WH that get elected TWICE. Now, ask yourself that question again.
Can this story die yet? There are more reporters than “protesters”, and how many of the latter were paid?
http://www.nj.com/bergen/index.ssf/2014/02/protesters_rally_near_george_washington_bridge_call_for_christie_to_resign_if_he_knew_of_closure_pla.html#incart_river_default
Anon,
If I recall, it was not the argument that buying home was wrong but I peppered him with listing after listing overpriced landmines out there waiting for a victim. He seemed non-chalant that the govt. would create the equity for us. Sort of like his govt. should be run by the poor blabbering.
The End Is Nigh (La Leche League Edition):
Colorado mom breastfeeds tiny puppy to save life of Tubbs the Labrador
The mother of a 15-month-old child says she could sit and watch the adorable pooch die — and that’s when ‘something clicked.’ She took the pup to her breast and posted a pic to Facebook.
The black Lab (not shown) refused to drink formula after his mom died, and that’s when the unnamed woman says her maternal instinct kicked in.
A Colorado mom saved a tiny puppy’s life by forcing it to breastfeed from her own chest.
The woman, who has a 15-month-old child, allowed the adorable Labrador to suckle from her bosom after he refused to take milk or formula from a bottle.
Incredibly, Tubbs the dog survived.
KRDO-TV reports that the woman, who has not been named because of feared backlash, took in the pooch after its own mother died.
When he refused to ingest any formula or food, she said “something clicked” and a “maternal instinct” took over.
“He wasn’t moving, and I just did it. I didn’t know what else to do. I was desperate, and I just couldn’t bear sitting there watching him die,” she told KRDO-TV.
“I thought, ‘Just put him on you and pray to God that he’ll take something and not die,'” she added. The woman, who posted a snap of the pup latched on to her onto Facebook, is convinced her quick-thinking saved Tubbs’ life.
She also revealed that he was now weaned off breast milk and taking formula.
“I’ve seen the results. That dog is alive because I took the initiative,” she added. Vet Amber Williams, however, has warned of the dangers of women breastfeeding puppies.
“There are things that can be passed from puppies to babies,” she told the station.
Can someone tell me when my pony will be delivered?
Anyone that’s had a puppy knows those little bastards have needle sharp canines and will gnaw on everything. How that woman managed to deal with that is beyond me. I’m picturing ground beef.
92 – Nom
What gauge wire are you using and what length?
Assuming you’re system is single phase 120v?
Chifi,
When the dog grows up she will play red rocket with him.
And post that on Facebook too.
“Can someone tell me when my pony will be delivered?”
Please refer all questions to Gary.
[104] buyer
I used 14 gauge, 15 amp on the pigtail. I used an equally heavy extension but it was 100 ft and my engineer friend surmised voltage drop was too much. There were a number of error codes and it suggested a system problem but when power came back (and we had rewired and disconnected the pigtail), the system worked. So it had to be a power issue but what exactly I couldn’t say.
[96] juice,
I couldn’t tell you. I was just in Costco and they had one on the rack. Perhaps you’re right, that it was some sort of welfare thing. Even though this guy has an electrical business, he lives in a double wide so I’m sure he’s collecting.
Nom is this forced hot air, hot water baseboard, or heat pump?
Forced hot air – the furnace controls use minimal power – but the blower uses quite a bit. Most air handlers have a dedicated circuit from the main panel. Blower will run in a brownout, dumb motor.
Baseboard – Most baseboard systems are stupid, they can run perfectly fine with voltage sags, etc. Only caveats are the very fancy new systems that have more logic than relay. Voltage drop on the extension cord? Seems fishy, even if you had a couple of big circulators it shouldn’t matter. Besides, those are dumb mag pumps and they’ll spin even in a brownout.
Heat Pump – I would never run a heat pump system on anything other than a very high quality inverter generator (and a big one at that) – harsh square wave power would hammer that really expensive compressor motor. How do you know if you have an inverter generator? Was the price tag $799 for a big ass Generac, or was it $4,000 for a Honda?
By the way – if you have fancy appliances – don’t run them off dirty generator power – for example – If I had a $9,000 sub zero built in fridge – no f’ing way I’d run it off a cheap generator – I’d fire up the tangerine colored sears unit in the garage and move the food downstairs. Or spare yourself the $2,000 repair bill and just buy the inverter. I had no problem plugging in the Macs or my TVs, those are fine, but precision AC motors? No way.
Assuming any kind of decent sized roller – 5000-6500 watts – you should have been just fine. I don’t buy the voltage drop explanation.
These would also be called “pure sine” generators. Although worth noting that some of the higher quality permanent install units (Kohler) have a high quality output. It’s the cheapo portables that are pretty ragged.
110
Error codes probably mean one or more sensors or the board was getting inconsistent power, especially if it went back to normal after regular power was restored.
Most of the sensors and the board run on 10 or 24v.
Don’t know how a transformer that’s stepping down that 120 and charging the board and sensors would react to generator power.
88- Thank you. We might have different views, but I’m happy to see that despite not being on the same page, you remain open minded. Always a sign of a great mind, the ability to remain open minded at all times.
“FWIW, I don’t find Michael stupid; he may be insensitive at times, but not stupid. I get where he is coming from and he articulates a view and position that is nuanced and thought-out; even if we don’t agree with his factual premises or conclusions, I have to respect that.”
98- IMO, poor people don’t really vote.
“Michael,
Do you think poor people affect policy?
Take a look at the sh1t in the WH that get elected TWICE. Now, ask yourself that question again.”
You would probably want to use #10 cable for that length run. Can’t say that #14 world cause a serious voltage issue, but if I was designing that cable to be permanent and with the assumptions I made (120v and 16 amps normal load) that would be the conservative design to account for the length.
Transformers don’t work on dc. A rectifier is installed to do that, and the dc voltage is manipulated using a dc converter. With dc relays and sensors, if the voltage is below the pick up threshold, the relay would fail to work. With that said, relays are pretty resilient, normally working within 20% of nominal voltage.
Without creeping around Noms house to figure out what he has, my guess is still the terrible generator output. Unless Nom wants to spill more details on the system…
[113] michael,
Don’t get the idea that I don’t mind seeing you get beat up from time to time. I just think that all the smart people on this board could be a little more civil.
Oh, hell, what am I saying? This is New Jersey!
[115] buyer,
I was using the 120v outlet on a 5500W generator. Should have had ample power. But this was a system with two blowers so that might have been an issue, or the electronics were designed to prevent underpowering so the motors don’t fry and that could have been an issue. I definitely know it was a quirk or feature of my heating system but I can’t say what or why, or even if wiring the 240 into a transfer switch would work.
95- I stand by my call that it is a great time to buy. It was better in 2012/13, but it’s still a good time. Once again, I must clear this up. When I say to buy properties, I’m talking about income producing properties that are multiple units. I’m not saying to buy single family homes and rent them out. With multiple unit properties, it’s really hard to lose money. You pretty much have to be an idiot to not make out. Personally, with these type of properties, I could care less what the price of the house is as long as it it equal to what I paid for it. I also like a price that is 10-12 times the rental income. Right now it’s an awesome time to buy these properties, good chance we are at the lows or not too far off it, rates are stupid low, and if the price of the property goes up 100,000 in 10-20 years, that is just icing on the cake on top of the rent collected.
“Is this the same Michael who told me I should buy a home because Uncle Sams magical inflation machine will make me rich? No, that Michael was stone stupid.”
[112] hughes,
“Don’t know how a transformer that’s stepping down that 120 and charging the board and sensors would react to generator power.”
That’s a fair point but I would have thought a transformer wouldn’t distinguish. Whatever the reason, its moot now and I learned something about my system.
I can only hope that the next storm on Thursday isn’t a repeat. I was in Costco today and the portables were all sold out. They had a 7000W champion running and it was pretty quiet. I think that was the brand Libtard has. If my guy tells me that I can get away with that level of power, I might look at that one.
[109, 110] grim,
Forced hot air system, a Lennox and its pretty new (2012 I think). High efficiency gas so it has exhaust blower in addition to main house (which is pretty powerful when it cranks up). On reset, it did try to run but ran low and then shut itself down.
I did run the fridge for awhile on the generator but initially I had a smaller one so I moved everything from my upstairs freezer to downstairs and ran that. Fridge food went into coolers packed with snow and set in an unheated garage. Seemed to have weathered just fine. Minimal food loss.
By PAUL KRUGMAN
February 11, 2014
From today’s very good piece by Annie Lowrey about rising inequality even within the 1 percent:
YES, we know the economic fortunes of the 99 percent and 1 percent have diverged over the last three or four decades. But the fortunes of the 1 percent and the 0.1 percent, or the 0.01 percent, or the 0.001 percent, have diverged even more. Economists have taken to calling it “fractal inequality.” It is not just that the rich have pulled away from the average American. It is that the richer you are, the more you have pulled away.”
Ahem:
That’s from my 1994 book Peddling Prosperity. I’m pretty sure I was the first to use that metaphor.
77- Who deserves the praise? The boss who provided the worker with a job, or the worker who provided the boss with wealth? Two ways of looking at it.
How much harder can a CEO making 15 million a year be working over the worker making 15,000 a year working full time at mcds? There is no way you can justify someone making more in one hour than someone does in a year. It’s just wrong in so many ways.
“Reread this a few times. Maybe you will get it through your thick skull that the rich are not the reason the poor can’t get ahead. The poor have opportunities that are only provided thanks to the rich. Too bad the poor are too stupid to break from their culture of generational stupidity.”
121- why does this board see nothing wrong with type of inequality? Isn’t it obvious, that the game of capitalism is almost at its end (unless the top players give some money back so the other players can continue to play)? The game of capitalism is no different than the game of monopoly, in both games, when the rest of the players are in debt to the person with all the money, it’s game over. Is that not what’s happening right now? The infractions among the top 1% says it all. If disparity is growing at an alarming rate in the top 1%, me thinks that is no good.
Nom,
Is the generator a pressing issue, one you don’t have a plan to fix at the moment?
Probably too late for this storm, but I do this type of work for a living so I can definitely help get it resolved so your electrician can fix it.
Grim,
Should I worry about running my subzero off my 20,000 kw Generac? What about forced hot air furnaces? Should I worry about audio equipment and a projector? I haven’t had my first blackout yet after the generator was installed.
Simply put, Capitalism isn’t the problem, it’s the cure. The inequality is also a disappearance of the middle class. The policy at fault is overtaxation and over regulation that discourages small business creation.
Michael says:
February 11, 2014 at 7:16 pm
121- why does this board see nothing wrong with type of inequality? Isn’t it obvious, that the game of capitalism is almost at its end (unless the top players give some money back so the other players can continue to play)? The game of capitalism is no different than the game of monopoly, in both games, when the rest of the players are in debt to the person with all the money, it’s game over. Is that not what’s happening right now? The infractions among the top 1% says it all. If disparity is growing at an alarming rate in the top 1%, me thinks that is no good.
Nom, what are the running and surge watts of your generator? I was nervous during Sandy but my 5000w Briggs and Stratton ran just about everything in the house. I’m surprised your generator didn’t do the job.
The projector I run off a UPS btw to reduce the risk of power blips.
Ragnar I’m sure it will be fine. I’m responsible for all the equipment in my company’s boardroom and it’s taken numerous power outages, brown outs and surges without issue.
Still trying to hold my lunch down after the dog nursing post.
Ragnar,
If your UPS was less than a grand, there is a good chance your UPS is not a “true online” UPS. Most cheap ups are nothing more than fast acting transfer switches that switch to battery on the event of power loss being detected. These cheap units generally are not power conditioners like their “online” cousin are.
Long story short, they do very little except stop power failures and surges from say, lighting strikes.
55: Lib,
Dry Treat or Tenax.
Would you suggest the true online variety? What would be the main benefits? The projector only cost $7k and a bulb replacement $300. And in a few years I will probably want to upgrade.
Which reminds me. Grim, I have an Epson 8500ub projector you can have if you want it. Also have an old Carver preamp and a high quality Denon receiver that lacks hdmi. If grim doesn’t want, non _ disliked other regular posters can have if you have a use for it.
Well… hard to say. For me, the money is far too much for such a device. I also don’t own anything quite that expensive.
That is really a decision for you and how much you are willing to spend. Under normal circumstances, the power grid is stable and consistent, very rarely will power conditioning be required.
If you plan on running the projector on a cheap junk generator, it may be worth it.
I will absolutely take you up on that Epson! I have a Sharpvision the size of a VW Vanagon. I’ll trade you for a high-quality isolation transformer – I used it to protect some of my high-end tube gear. It’ll protect your projector better than a UPS will.
If your generac is a built in unit, no worries , they are of a significantly higher quality than the portable units.
Long dong Silver…
Thank for the advice.
Nom,
Mine is a Champion, but they might have made them better before the onslaught of Snoctober, Sandy, etc. As we all know, it’s rare for a company to maintain quality with scale. Heck, look at Toyota. I’m still amazed at Honda Motors though. Their products truly are superior.
I run everything off my little generator without an issue about clean voltage. Though, the key, and I said this before. Do not plug anything in within the first five minutes of starting the generator up. Likewise, always unplug the device from the circuit before turning the generator off.
Rags…
My audiophile system doesn’t have HDMI either, but fortunately has like 5 digital cable inputs. Was surprised to see a DAC output on my Apple TV. I’ve got an old Yamaha RXV995 store display model, which I bought in 2000 for $300 from 6th Avenue Electronics before they went belly up that still absolutely kicks ass. It sold for $1,000 back then new. Recently obtained a pair of Monitor Audio Radius 90s for the rear since Gator refused to allow me to hang my Paradigm Phantoms which admittedly would look silly on the rear walls of my living room. I have the last of the great Acoustic Research speakers in the front before Teledyne brought them out and ruined them. They are the AR1s. They soundstage like no other speaker for under 5K. I still can’t believe the Yamaha receiver is fully functional 14 years later. My friends over for the Super Bowl were stunned by the sound quality.
chi – yes, I am a Columbia grad.
Ok grim, email me to schedule a time to pick it up.
#78 Ragnar
“Right Fabmax, my own personal experiences and observations don’t count.”
If you are trying to portray your childhood as the marker in this argument you will lose. I asked the question if you have read the book. For me, I think Ayn Rand is full of Sh1t, but at least I have read her books to back up my premise. In this case can you say the same?
As always there is a standing invitation to sit down over a beer to discus Rand. If you ever want to step to the plate, we can arrange a GTG.
Here is my problem with Preppers. When you say you are a Prepper, it shows you miss the point. The question is not “Are you prepared!” (In this case you are not). The question is more how much has this event diverged you from your normal living. The better measure is, how much of the lifestyle is in your daily living.
When we see these prepper shows, they always throw up the Maine couple that are living the “Hippie” lifestyle. They are the ones that will make it. They are not hording Guns or Gold, they are just using their skills and food.
When TSHTF in this household, if the power is not coming back, the freezers are on solar battery backup. Anything perishable will be canned or salted.
When the day comes, my run is to Restaurant Depot to stock up on vinegar and salt!
For those having issues with generator power. Its $5 work out how it works and adapt to your needs. http://www.newark.com/schaffner/fn9222-10-06/emi-power-line-filter-10a-373/dp/97F8256?mckv=sJAWZe4xc|pcrid|33870213381|plid|&CMP=KNC-GPLA
Boy, that didn’t take long . . .
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/02/11/de-blasio-intercedes-after-supporter-arrested/
[127] Brian,
It was a 5500w borrowed from a friend who didn’t lose power. Now that I’ve had a chance to ruminate on it, I suspect it was just too dirty and the controls on the HVAC system recognized that. The extension pigtail would have been fine on my older systems but not this one.
The wife wants to go the standby route. So hopefully, this will be a nonissue next winter.
I’m more worried about the ice dam on my roof than the power going out for this weather.
144 – I’m halfway considering leaving the door to the attic open today
Valentine’s day is comming, if you have no idea for gift just check my blog, i’m sure your sweetie will be amused