From the Record:
Economy gaining steam; U.S. job figures best in five months and N.J. is catching up
The better-than-expected U.S. job numbers released Friday echoed positive trends in New Jersey and boosted confidence that the economy in the state, and the nation, is on track, economists said.
U.S. employers added 280,000 jobs in May, according to Labor Department figures, the highest in five months, after a first-quarter slump many economists blamed on the harsh winter. Hourly wages, which have barely budged even as jobs grew, rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, the biggest increase since August 2014. Unemployment edged up to 5.5 percent from 5.4 percent in April, as more people entered the workforce.
…
New Jersey, which has trailed the U.S. in the speed of job creation, posted its 10th straight month of job growth in April and is on pace to gain an estimated 60,000 jobs this year.The state still is not adding jobs at the same pace as the nation as a whole, but the gap has narrowed in the past six months, according to Rutgers University economist Joseph Seneca, who called the trend “encouraging.”
…
By a number of measures, New Jersey’s economy is improving, said Patrick O’Keefe, an economist with CohnReznick, a New York accounting firm with offices in Roseland. For example, unemployment claims in New Jersey have dropped to lows last seen about 15 years ago; home building is 12 percent above last year’s level; and non-residential construction is up. Tax revenue in the state also has risen, O’Keefe said.However, “the national economy has a degree of momentum that we have yet to see at the state level,” he said. “The state just hasn’t gained the traction that we see nationally.”
New Jersey is scheduled to report its May jobs figures on June 18. In April, the state added 4,300 jobs, and the state’s jobless rate remained at 6.5 percent.
…
Friday’s strong national employment numbers are likely to be good news for New Jersey, especially for the state’s $42.1 billion tourism industry, said Michael Wolf, a regional economist who follows New Jersey for Wells Fargo.“Presumably with a stronger labor market and higher incomes, more people will say, ‘Why don’t we take a long weekend or a full week and head to the Shore?’Ÿ” Wolf said.
Over the longer term, Wolf expects “modest to moderate” economic growth for the state.
“I don’t expect New Jersey to be a leader of growth in the U.S., but I don’t think it’s slated to devolve into perpetual recession,” he said.
…
ohn Fugazzie, founder of the North Jersey-based Neighbors Helping Neighbors support group for job seekers, and program coordinator of the state’s Ready to Work job training and placement grant, cautioned that the gains still haven’t eased the unemployment and underemployment problems of many New Jerseyans and Americans.“The salary levels of the jobs being added are much lower than the jobs that are being lost,” he said.
Sanzari’s beach house for sale.
http://www.weichert.com/m/propertydetails.aspx?p=55220163&city=3161&q=Bay+Head%2c+NJ
Was 30 year’s eviction in Woodbridge?
http://www.nj.com/middlesex/index.ssf/2015/06/woodbridge_woman_barricades_herself_in_home_after.html#incart_river_mobileshort
How are taxes on that only $37k?
Exact thoughts went through my head.
Grim says:
June 6, 2015 at 7:45 am
How are taxes on that only $37k?
For Gary:
“Memo to the Fed and its media tool Hilsenrath: we’re not here to further enrich your already obscenely rich banker and corporate cronies by buying overpriced goods and services we don’t need. Our job is not to spend every cent we earn on interest to banks and mostly-garbage corporate goods and services. Our job is to limit the amount we squander on interest and needless spending. Our job is to build the financial security of our families by saving capital and prudently investing it in assets we control (as opposed to letting Wall Street control our assets parked in equity and bond funds).
Your zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) has gutted our ability to build capital safely. For that alone, you are an enemy of the middle class. Let’s say we wanted to buy a real asset that we control, for example, a rental house, rather than gamble our retirement funds on Wall Street’s Scam du Jour (stock buybacks funded by debt, to name the latest and greatest scam).
Thanks to your policies of ZIRP and unlimited liquidity for financiers, we’ve been outbid by the Wall Street/private-equity crowd–your cronies and pals. They pay almost nothing for their money and they don’t need a down payment, while we’re paying 4.5% on mortgages and need 30% down payment for a non-owner occupied home. Who wins that bidding process? Those with 100% financing at near-zero rates.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-05/memo-fed-and-jon-hilsenrath-were-not-here-enrich-your-corporate-cronies
1/3/4.
Maybe it’s because this $8m residence has shower curtains (pic 39/90).
Dude, for eight mil, at least give me some glass…….
Hastert all over the news.
His alleged past conduct is reprehensible.
However……
Is anyone else bothered by the actual charges filed against him (which include nothing related to the s3xual abuses)? I understand although don’t agree with Court precedent that holds that lying to a Federal official is a crime. Leave that one to the side right now.
How about the evading reporting requirements on cash withdrawals? Isn’t the simple answer “yes”?
A citizen fully informed of the clear specifics of any law chooses to arrange their affairs in a manner most favorable to them within the specifics of that law. And it is a crime?
Best analogy I can come up with is “tax avoidance” versus “tax evasion”. The former (pushing the law to the limit in your favor) is legal. The latter (breaking the code) is not.
In what world is a citizen who proactively manages his affairs to the limit of the law breaking said law?
#2 – Thankfully my eviction was not that exciting. Unfortunately it will continue for a 2nd full day on Monday. Two moving trucks, 6 movers and a storage facility are being paid for by my client to facilitate this eviction. Former owner did not pay in more than 5 years, 7 months since sheriff sale and these people did not pack a single box or find a place to go. Three generations living in the same house and not a single person is employed.
After a $80,000 renovation this house will be worth about $500,000. Former owner paid $650,000 in 2005. I would bet anything that it was a no doc loan!
The above sounds like a case in which a stretch of homelessness may do wonders for these people.
If you don’t mind about what did your client pick it up for?
Seems to me (looking at a different state) there is the opportunity for some serious gains, but not without a fair amount of risk (seriously trashed place) and hassle…..
I was about to get serious last year. Didn’t have the time to get a local attorney to help and make sure I would avoid pitfalls. Property I was looking at sold and the buyer renovated the existing house and built two more on the parcel(s). Must have made a killing (relatively speaking, the area is not nearly as prosperous as NJ). Kicked myself and promised I wouldn’t miss next opportunity.
Former owner paid $650,000 in 2005. I would bet anything that it was a no doc loan!
This is why I want to f.ucking v0mit when I see a sh1t-stained, p1ss-reeking r.at h0le listed in the 600s and some fat, f.ucking whale with zero common sense is telling me it’s warranted because of the name of the town.
#10 – prefer not to provide too much detail. There will be a reasonable profit from this deal but we will have earned every penny of it. Not one of our best purchases, but not the worst either.
Leftwing, as we are transitioning full speed ahead into a “Soft Authoritarian Plutocratic Police State” it behooves everyone to prepare for it.
The Hasterts of the world get caught like this, because they think still the country they grew up in. It is not since the War on Drugs and definitely not since 9/11, and you’ll will pay dearly for ignoring that.
Calmly saying “5th Amendment” until in the future cops are legally allow to rough you up – takes care of your question. ” I understand although don’t agree with Court precedent that holds that lying to a Federal official is a crime”
About the money. You got to behave like in any police state. The system will have a real time total awareness picture of you (finance,communications, social, opinions,etc). You can not control all of it, but you can massage it and create patterns that do not attract attention.
Think counter-intelligence. What it means is you run 2 sets of books. One visible to the soft police state data gathering machinery and one invisible in cash/bartering/etc. This is by the way, why big money/criminal enterprises spend about 20% of gross trying to create/maintain systems like these.
Eddie, I have been trying to buy a house for myself for about a year. Objective is to keep the monthly cost at $2000 or less for PITI with $100,000 down. Need 3/4 bedrooms and at least 2 full baths. Location was limited to desirable sections of Clifton, Bloomfield, Nutley or Monclair and a few south Bergen towns. I was going to buy/build a 2 family but it has not worked out. Had to bail on my subdivision application in Waldwick because building envelopes would have been too restrictive.
Tuesday I will be bidding on a property near you in Clifton. Montclair Heights brick ranch, 2000 square feet, .5 acre, 2 car attached garage, with 3.5 baths and taxes of $11,500. Hope to be the successful bidder at $250,000 or less. Current owner paid $375,000 in 2011. House needs a full interior update.
read the comments in #2.
I suspect there are going to be quite few people who are going to be forcefully evicted.
wow
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/front-range/greenwood-village/owner-of-greenwood-village-house-blown-apart-by-swat-says-this-is-an-abomination-this-is-an-atrocity
14 – would be a steal at that price
How are taxes $37k? I heard he used JJ Consulting Inc. I remember a house in foreclosure in Wash twp, Priced at $800k for 4000sf, Taxes were just under 50k.
12. 30yr
Respect you keeping things confidential.
Trying to get a handle if these things are worthwhile at lower valuations than here in NJ. Goal would not be to buy and flip but buy, refurbish, and rent. Soft costs like legal (initial), follow-on legal (turning a quit claim into a warranty deed), malicious damage, and the BS you are going through underwriting the guy’s move out I just don’t have a handle on.
I’m good with evaluating, pricing, and dealing with renovations. Stuff that jumps up out of nowhere and bites me in the butt, less so.
18
Bay Head and Mantaloking have virtually no government expenses. It’s really only a community four months of the year. Virtually no kids live there year round, if they do they go to Point Pleasant schools. About four cops total, total of maybe 40 blocks? It is a ghost town from Oct to Apri.
Also keep in mind everyone’s taxes in both town are probably 20k+. There just are not that many houses, and I would think the vast majority are worth seven figures.
#19 – Renovation cost is similar for a cheap house and an expensive house. Septic systems and oil tanks can eat you alive. A small mistake can swallow all your entire equity gain.
I have a single family row house available in East Orange in a decent location for $38,000. Section 8 should pay somewhere between $1600 – $1800 for 3 bedrooms. Taxes are about $800 per month. Tenant pays all utilities including water. Needs about $10,000 in repairs. Small investment. Big return. Small risk. No upside in equity gain. Real estate market is weak for inner city single family, especially attached houses.
Funny you bring that up. My father got into real estate late, maybe 20 years ago. Dove into the nearby city, small population likely less than Summit, but economically declining area.
Not horrible, Irvington or Camden way, just economically beaten up.
Rental housing there has one rule. Purchase price can’t be more than two years of rental payments. Houses are viewed as ‘disposable’, there is no assumption of equity value at the exit. Just keep running the cash flow out and if things get too funky hand the keys to the city.
While the article is funny, I love the comment section.
Barclays Banker Gives Interns 10 Reasons to Say Fcuk This Banking Hell
http://tinyurl.com/okuyq6j
They concluded: ‘A flurry of legal and cultural disputes over the past decade has revealed a new race-related controversy gaining traction: an emerging belief in anti-white prejudice.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1390205/Whites-suffer-racism-blacks-Study-shows-white-people-believe-discriminated-against.html#ixzz3cLIWNNjf
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
another perfect day ruined by a dicktard post…
2 year rule? Def in the slums. The pricing is enticing, but unless they are section 8, God bless the landlord when it comes to collecting rent.
leftwing says:
June 6, 2015 at 7:17 pm
Funny you bring that up. My father got into real estate late, maybe 20 years ago. Dove into the nearby city, small population likely less than Summit, but economically declining area.
Not horrible, Irvington or Camden way, just economically beaten up.
Rental housing there has one rule. Purchase price can’t be more than two years of rental payments. Houses are viewed as ‘disposable’, there is no assumption of equity value at the exit. Just keep running the cash flow out and if things get too funky hand the keys to the city.
I thought it was interesting. Yes, it’s a bs article, but it’s a based on a study and I found the conclusion interesting.
Splat What Was He Thinking says:
June 6, 2015 at 11:24 pm
another perfect day ruined by a dicktard post…
28- study was performed by Harvard, so lay off me.
24- You are not kidding. Comments are so funny.
“To paraphrase Winston Churchill, “The best argument in favour of a 90% tax rate on the rich is a five-minute chat with the average rich person.””
24. Some parody in there guys that seems even Barclays missed. I’ve been away from it for a decade but can assure you any intern showing up with no socks and a bowtie on the first day will be absolutely shredded. Especially in a Power group which if not staffed by some Houston expats has a bunch of urban bravados in ten gallon hats thinking they’re bad@ss because they deal with those guys.
27. Not slums but certainly not a town anyone here would consider top tier. Old but solid housing stock effectively being abandoned for primary residency as the population decreases from 95k (1970) to 55k (currently). Yes, that is c. 40% decline in population.
Another data point, during the last 18 years (only data I can find) the average number of new building permits was six. Yeah, total of 6 annually for a locale with 55k population.
Demographics aren’t that bad. Not the raw crime and hostility seen in truly bad areas, just depressed. Most of the residents are the very bottom rung of the working class economic ladder. The kind that you seem to champion so much but call their housing slums (yeah, I’m kind of calling you out with liberal rule number 5: you’re just as snarky as everyone else but pretend you are not).
Anyway, interesting how the numbers align with 30yr’s investment. Houses there are available 25-30k, usually need to throw a little work in as well. Rent will be about $1000-1200. Taxes are $600-1000 (annually). Seem to net out about the same.
Biggest issue for these types of investments for me is the margin for error. With such a small top line (despite the high ROI) there is very little room for anything unexpected. Strategy, buy cheap, have a portfolio so vacancies don’t kill you, get good hard bones that you can maintain easily, and tenants that won’t cause major damage. Plus a bit of DIY or a very cheap handyman.
Biggest challenge, especially with the declining population and static housing stock, is finding those good tenants. Rent collections from this demographic, you betcha, you are absolutely there on payday friday and taking it when they have it.
I’ve been to the area three times over the past six weeks. What caught my eye was while looking at some of these properties the last sold was ‘public record’ and $2k-$6k. Researched that and it led me to the auctions. I don’t want to be in the business of buying and renovating for a $15k potential profit on a flip, not worth it. But if I am looking at rentals anyway and can actually get in at even a lower price why not? Especially if I will need to do some work anyway, regardless of what I buy?
Sorry about the slums description. It wasn’t meant to be in an offensive way. I was just doing the math on the 2 year purchase formula and came to the assumption that based on the price, these areas would be slums.
I’m all for buying property and renting it out. I used to beat that message to a drum on this board. Has to be one of the best roi’s out there right now.
I also like how you think. You are focused on the income aspect, which is the correct way to look at an investment property. People that invest in a property with the hopes of making money on a price increase are lost. The focus must always be on income to price ratio. Even if the price goes down, who cares if the sole purpose of the property is to generate income. You bought based on a price that makes sense when compared to income generated. So if the price goes down, who cares, you are not selling. You should only care if the income produced by the property goes down.
Surely, some computer-savvy person on this board can come up with an anon/Punkin filter.
I’ll pay good money for one of these…
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
Forget the noise: Oil prices won’t crash again
http://usat.ly/1IuEHPB
Hahaha. No need to apologize to me punkin. I know who I am, what the houses are, and am fully aware of the tenant.
You’re the one with the Che-champion-of-the-everyman facade who calls their houses slums behind their back.
Of no consequence to me.
The perpetual hue and cry of morons throughout the land.
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
Seems the NJ State police have some neat equipment they wanted to try out.
http://www.northjersey.com/mobile/news/arrests-made-at-summer-jam-concert-after-some-fans-clash-with-state-police-1.1351014
Constant reference to US Today pretty much tells you all you need to know about Punkin’s mindset.
Perhaps a gift of crayons might slow down his posting rate here.
I thought that was the allure of Chris Brown… some interesting moves and the possibility of a beatdown.
“Angry crowds threw bottles, the New Jersey State Police used tear gas, causing people to scatter, and there were several arrests.
There were many outbursts of conflict as State Police tried to keep the stadium peaceful and concert goers grew increasingly frustrated and angry, especially those with legitimate tickets.
Eyewitness News spoke with several concertgoers a paid a lot of money only to wait outside the gate all night and never be allowed inside to see artists like Chris Brown.”
http://7online.com/entertainment/chaos-erupts-outside-summer-jam-concert-at-metlife-stadium/772043/
I thought that was the allure of Chris Brown… some interesting moves and the possibility of a beatdown.
http://7online.com/entertainment/chaos-erupts-outside-summer-jam-concert-at-metlife-stadium/772043/
Absolutely no triple-digit IQs at that summer jam event.
Protesters want modernized NJgun laws
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/Protestors-Want-Modernized-Gun-Laws_Philadelphia-306458371.html
a person of color resisting arrest like her wouldn’t be alive today
@nypost: The ugly details of Hope Solo’s 2014 arrest have been released
“a person of color”
What color would that be?
They State police used an LRAD, they did not even use one of those at Zuccotti Park.
Perhaps they should have just blasted some Barry Manilow instead?
Permanent hearing loss begins at 130dB and the LRAD in the hands of a moron can be turned up to to 162dB.
@ezraklein: Krugman: “You may believe that I am evil or stupid, or evil and stupid. But derp means something specific.”
“You may believe that I am evil or stupid, or evil and stupid. But derp means something specific: it means always saying the same thing, regardless of circumstances, and regardless of past errors.
Declaring that the Fed’s policies are going to cause hyperinflation, year after year, when it keeps not happening is derp. Declaring that we need aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion when the economy is depressed isn’t. It’s not an invariant claim — in fact, I get accused (stupidly) of some kind of inconsistency because I thought deficits were bad under Bush but good under Obama. And it’s not a prediction that has repeatedly proved false.
What the accusers really mean here is that I keep saying things they dislike and dispute. But that’s not derp, that’s just disagreement. There’s a difference, and only the derpy fail to grasp that difference.”
H0t 97 Summer Jam. Four detestable words.
http://www.cafepress.com/mf/32779946/the-ass-family_tshirt?productId=356843287
Now all we need is to bring back fog a mirror.
“Jobs boom triggers rebound in housing
The resurgence of job growth in the United States is helping to power a rebound in the housing market, turning what was the hardest-hit industry during the recession into a highlight of the recovery.
Home sales are at their highest level since 2006, according to industry data, and housing prices across major metro areas have increased 30 percent since bottoming out three years ago. Government numbers show that new residential construction jumped by 20 percent this spring, and in some areas the market has been so strong that analysts are worried about another bubble.
Alongside those gains is a pickup in job growth that started in 2014 and has yet to lose steam. New government data released Friday showed that the economy added 280,000 jobs in May, the biggest number this year. U.S. employers have not been on such a long hiring spree since the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5 percent, largely because more people decided to seek work.
“They both feed off of each other,” said Danielle Hale, director of housing statistics at the National Association of Realtors. “The job market’s improvement comes first, and then the housing market follows.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/jobs-boom-triggers-rebound-in-housing/2015/06/05/4b310f32-0bb4-11e5-9e39-0db921c47b93_story.html?wprss=rss_business
48- He is saying the same thing that I have been saying. Wage inflation will come 2017/2018 and home market will pick up after. By 2020, next upward cycle of the real estate market will be in effect. Homes purchased during the down market should be able to be sold for significant gains by 2025.
“The most important thing to prop up the housing market is a stable job, not just a new one,” Richardson said. “While I see a lot of great seeds and shoots, I don’t think the payoff to the strong jobs numbers will come until two or three years into the future.”
re: #48 – You must be not be hearing what you are saying or reading what is written.
The NAR shill says markets are way way way up, “housing prices across major metro areas have increased 30 percent since bottoming out three years ago.”
30% Plumpkin. That itself is an anomaly. Bernake threw gasonline on it last week with his comment, and he is an insider.
Why the fk would anyone buy now is beyond me, they will rope in the No Doc, Fog a mirror crowd again with sub-whatever morgages.
History Rhymes.
Some sellers by me are now listing older homes at new home pricing when there are
brand new 7 figure Toll Homes going up a mile away on the old Bamm Hollow golf course. They have some stones, sure you may be a bit closer to the schools but how they heck is your POS built deacdes ago the same value as the newer homes going up in the area?
http://www.zillow.com/community/estates-at-bamm-hollow/2103851970_zpid/?view=map
Tax savings?
but how they heck is your POS built deacdes ago the same value as the newer homes going up in the area?
Problem with rental property and I only have one is I find tenants “nest”, after awhile they think they own the property. Kinda weird when tenants use address labels with your own address, start registering cars, registering to vote, go down to town and apply for stuff like park passes. Then they become resentful of having to mail you a check each week. I think it is why vacations only last 7 days. By day 30 in Disneyworld or a Cruise both the vacationers and resort owners find each other intolerable.
Then in a VRBO or AIRBNB setting I find some folks who are renting think it is a hotel not someones house they are renting to make extra money.
My place I am not in dire need of cash. My winter tenant is staying till June 20 later than usual so I am itching to use place and have almost five month rent in bank.
So I threw the calendar on-line as available and if folks contact me I tell them I am not renting it out till after June 20 when winter tenant gets out so I can inspect it and make sure it is ok and I plan on using it July 4th week. Also I am not 100% sure what other weeks are available. One or two folks said fine. I also said which is rare since I have it two weeks empty they can even come by and look at it first. Some places are scams so I felt it would be nice to offer plus I get to check them out.
But all at once I get this type A person who wants to book. I explain my situation and she is like I dont need to see it, I saw the pictures, I wont be in area anyhow. I need to finalize my vacation plans. I am ready to commit to day. I tell her look it is available but I am not booking anyone till after June 20. Then she told me on phone to her this is short notice. She is booking on only five weeks notice as she has nanny, clients, work, and spouse who all have to give vacation notice she cant be sitting around to last minute.
She is right in a way I have it listed as available. But I own the place. Not her. She should buy a vacation home. I loose rental income doing it this way. But first year I booked up weeks and my wife and I felt like cleaning people. Plus I rented it out 10 days with great weather ahead of time. I was stuck at home in my hot house
VRBO and airbnb people some of them should use a hotel. I also last two years do the same my football tickets. I used to sell them all in late Aug to late Sept at max profit then I miss games I want to go to . Now I wait closer to game, sell for slightly less and the one or two folks I work with now harrass me hey are you going to this game and ask me in June. To which I respond I dont know but by two weeks ahead of time I will know. Finally, I stopped selling tickets to friends or workers, by season two they acted like I worked for them.
50- The quote I posted from the article was from an individual that thinks we are still a little way off. He was not cheerleading anything. We are not in a bubble right now. People can think so, but we are not. A lot of the prices are justified by an improving economy.
What justification do we have to lower prices right now? If prices lowered 10-20% today, they will be right back up in a few weeks with people feeding on the prices like piranhas. As the economy improves the housing market follows. It’s all a cycle. Buy when the economy is in recession and sell when the economy heats up. I do not believe for one second that anyone buying real estate today will be losing money in the next 10 years. People buying 8 years from now will be losing money in the next cycle. People buying now will profit if they sell in 10 years.
re:# 52 – They reval down here all the time.
re: # 54 – Plumpkin you are discounting all of the investment money that went into this bubble over the last three or four years. Wasn’t it somewhere around 50% Institutional Investor Activity all cash buysers running up this housing bubble?
There wasn’t piranhas or people running up this the latest bubble, there weren’t the bidding wars in Wayne New Joisey like there may have been a decade ago.
They are going to have to take another chainsaw to the mortgage lending rules, the “investors” need buyers.
JJ – rent it with a cleaning fee. Last time I rented a beachfront 4 bedroom house for two weeks I let the guy hold a $500 check towards the cleaning fee. If we clean it spotless like we received the place, he rips up the check (which he did), otherwise he cashes the check. When we met the landlord at the place to pick up the keys, he, his wife, and two twenty-something daughters were working like dogs to finish cleaning the place. I bet he was glad when he came back after we left as all he had to do was hand the next renters the keys and rip up the check.
She is right in a way I have it listed as available. But I own the place. Not her. She should buy a vacation home. I loose rental income doing it this way. But first year I booked up weeks and my wife and I felt like cleaning people. Plus I rented it out 10 days with great weather ahead of time. I was stuck at home in my hot house
I take great solace in knowing that the next deflationary credit collapse will probably end with dolts like Punkin being part of the collateral damage.
I can see Punkin now, facing off against a mob at a bank run, counseling calm and repeating his call for wage inflation.
I have been following the Morris County foreclosures for years now as I know the area real well and the site is easy to use, so it’s my barometer for foreclosure activity. The Foreclosure spigot appears to be wide open right now.
Here are the recent differences I’ve noticed of late:
1. Since sheriff sales are scheduled about 3 months into the future, the first several pages are sales that haven’t happened yet. At about 50 sales per web page, the current sales just about *always* started on page 5. Now the current sales are on page 8. That tells me that instead of 250 scheduled sales in the next 3 months there are more like 400 scheduled, a 60% increase!
2. Sales are actually completing! It used to be that only 1-3 actually went through on the scheduled date, the majority of the left-overs would be adjourned to a future date. No more. Last week 11 out of 15 sales completed, 3 were settled, 1 adjourned due to bankruptcy.
When all forms of credit have been debased, cash money becomes king.
You won’t be able to buy as much as a tank of gas with your credit card, issued by a failed/failing institution. No one will want to own even an overnight claim against money when the world switches on a dime to cash-on-the-barrelhead.
[58] splat
“I can see Punkin now, facing off against a mob at a bank run, counseling calm and repeating his call for wage inflation.”
Something like this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
Exactly like that.
clot: won’t it just look identical to last night at Met Life Stadium, but replace the word Stadium with Corporate Headquarters?
Splat What Was He Thinking says:
June 8, 2015 at 11:56 am
I take great solace in knowing that the next deflationary credit collapse will probably end with dolts like Punkin being part of the collateral damage.
I can see Punkin now, facing off against a mob at a bank run, counseling calm and repeating his call for wage inflation.
With this kind of writing on the wall, is it not obvious that the banks feel the market is getting strong enough to handle foreclosures without taking the market down? Economy is getting better every year now and so is the housing market.
This is not a bubble. Don’t know why people think this is a bubble? There is nothing here that says it’s a bubble. Every market is being driven by qualified buyers. This is not being driven by unqualified people signing the line on a zero down interest loan.
If you think it’s a bubble, please explain why? Only bubble’s I could see are in a few select high end markets being driven by foreign money, but even that doesn’t scare me. Foreign money has no where else to put that money. That money in those properties is acting like a bank. They have no intention of selling those properties that are being used as a safe means of diversification of their money. So no, I don’t see nyc or san fran area popping. They could be in a bubble, but I just don’t really see it as a bubble. I see these real estate purchases as a means of preserving wealth and not a get rich quick scheme to flip the properties for money. If these rich individuals are purchasing to flip in nyc or sf, please show me the data that says so.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
June 8, 2015 at 11:58 am
I have been following the Morris County foreclosures for years now as I know the area real well and the site is easy to use, so it’s my barometer for foreclosure activity. The Foreclosure spigot appears to be wide open right now.
Here are the recent differences I’ve noticed of late:
1. Since sheriff sales are scheduled about 3 months into the future, the first several pages are sales that haven’t happened yet. At about 50 sales per web page, the current sales just about *always* started on page 5. Now the current sales are on page 8. That tells me that instead of 250 scheduled sales in the next 3 months there are more like 400 scheduled, a 60% increase!
2. Sales are actually completing! It used to be that only 1-3 actually went through on the scheduled date, the majority of the left-overs would be adjourned to a future date. No more. Last week 11 out of 15 sales completed, 3 were settled, 1 adjourned due to bankruptcy.
chi (63)-
I’d love to know the employment rate within that mob at MetLife last night.
Whatever that UE rate is, prolly corresponds to the real UE rate in Amerika.
Miame condo market is closest to a bubble, on everything else I sort of agree with the Pumpkin.
[59] TONJEP
Noticed it too. Warren Co. is picking up as well.
[53] JJ
“Problem with rental property and I only have one is I find tenants “nest”, after awhile they think they own the property.”.
Then there are the anomalies;
Single mom with four kids. Asked me to drop off a lawnmower and clippers to do the shrubs. Too much liability for me (what if she cut her toes off?). Girl is a cleaning machine. Makes me look like a slob.
When she moves out (I hope she never does) I won’t even have to sweep the floors.
Chick pays rent in cash, in advance, too.
One good tenant story but I have a hundred horrors.
Can anyone make out what she’s saying at around 0:12 seconds?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J73UEYfLud8
[69] TONJEP
OMG! She looks like that tenant! (including the nose ring!).
I charge a cleaning fee. Trouble is I don’t rent it back to back. So lets say I rent it for one week, tenant moves out, if not so bad we clean it ourselves, which I usually do.
Trouble is I use it myself. So I drag my clothes, sheets, blankets, food etc there and use if for two weeks. Then someone wants it, I have to clean it up, do all the linens, make it spotless, clean out fridge, clean bbq and set up lockbox. Only for these folks to mess it up again. This year I was looking only for a monthly tenant. But monthly tenants want to see place first, for that to happen I have to interupt my winter tenant, plus monthly tenants often like dopes go to a realtor and realtor expects me to pay a 10% fee.
And the only repeat customer I had were one or two I turned down. One family stayed ten days which was great. Then the next they call me up and want to stay for the weekend. I am like I am not setting up a rental moving all my stuff for two nights. Then the women said so I guess you will be there that weekend. I tell her the truth. No I am not going to be there. But it is work and if you book a weekend if someone wants to come for two weeks and your two days are in middle I loose a whole two weeks. I never heard back from her again. And originally she made it seem like she wanted to rent every year. Wife put free wine in fridge, six pack of beer, chips and dip, cold water bottles, age appropriate toys for kids. Now I am like what is the point.
The UBER/AirBNB crowd have no loyalty. They wait to last minute pick the cheapest price and will risk losing their money with a new person to save twenty bucks a night.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
June 8, 2015 at 11:43 am
JJ – rent it with a cleaning fee. Last time I rented a beachfront 4 bedroom house for two weeks I let the guy hold a $500 check towards the cleaning fee. If we clean it spotless like we received the place, he rips up the check (which he did), otherwise he cashes the check. When we met the landlord at the place to pick up the keys, he, his wife, and two twenty-something daughters were working like dogs to finish cleaning the place. I bet he was glad when he came back after we left as all he had to do was hand the next renters the keys and rip up the check.
She is right in a way I have it listed as available. But I own the place. Not her. She should buy a vacation home. I loose rental income doing it this way. But first year I booked up weeks and my wife and I felt like cleaning people. Plus I rented it out 10 days with great weather ahead of time. I was stuck at home in my hot house
Tool [45];
Oh, the irony…
derp means something specific: it means always saying the same thing, regardless of circumstances, and regardless of past errors.
You mean like endlessly calling for more government spending?
I wonder how many other Nobel laureates make their best arguments using adolescent name calling?
WSJ: Home-Equity Lines of Credit See Jump in Delinquencies
[72] I get it. The nice thing about owning a vacation place is having your stuff already there, but you can’t have your cake and eat it too if you are going to rent it out in between. Maybe you can put a padlock on one of the closets and make it an owner’s closet for the linens and clothes, and other soft goods?
I saw your monthly listing, but the calendar makes it look like it’s already unavailable until 7/26, and with a 28 day minimum rental, that pretty much would make a would-be renter look like your only looking for a single renter for August?
Trouble is I use it myself. So I drag my clothes, sheets, blankets, food etc there and use if for two weeks. Then someone wants it, I have to clean it up, do all the linens, make it spotless, clean out fridge, clean bbq and set up lockbox. Only for these folks to mess it up again.
moose (72)-
Would the fcuktard Krugman suggest treating a j0nkie by giving him unlimited amounts of smack?
Then, what is the logic of fixing a debt problem by creating even more debt?
(74) My brother’s near ocean front in Isle of Palms SC has several closets with locks and deadbolts. These closets are spacious. That’s where he keeps his stuff when he goes down there. He does rent out, but he sees the place as a losing proposition now. Taxes are $9k and flood insurance is now $9k. Jersey like
Splat,
But demand. Aggregate demand cures everything. Just make those f**kers shop and everything will be fixed. Or he will say that would have prevented any possible problem from occurring in the first place. Krugman doesn’t accept the concept “debt problem”. Just as he rejects the concept of “malinvestment”. No matter how stupid and uneconomic a factory or store (think Xanadu, or NJ Casinos), that wasn’t malinvestment, it’s the government’s job to st1mulate “demand” to make them operate and employ people.
Krugman makes much more sense when you understand him as a self-consciously-evil dwarf intent on tricking humanity into committing mass-suicide.
His inspiration, Keynes, didn’t in his models consider the possibility that the government couldn’t borrow infinite sums.
He also didn’t have a model for the day after tomorrow, which is why he famously derided a question about the long run.
Shocking new video shows unarmed Utah man was listening to headphones when killed by police
http://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/06/03/1390285/-Shocking-new-video-shows-unarmed-Utah-man-was-listening-to-headphones-when-killed-by-police
Black lives er I mean Hispanic lives er ah never mind it’s a white guy. It doesn’t matter.
New York Times columnist Paul Krugman took his cue from “South Park” on Monday, outlining a plan to fight “derp,” which in economic circles functions as a shorthand for “people who keep saying the same thing no matter how much evidence accumulates that it’s completely wrong.”
“Inflation derp,” he noted, “has become more of less a required position among Republicans,” because conservative ideology demands of adherence the belief that any expansion of the government “must lead to disaster.” The fact that this has not proven to be true is immaterial, because “derp” is, at its essence, “basically political.”
A “telltale sign of derp,” Krugman argued, is an inflexibility in how politicians address novel economic situation, “like the assertion that slashing tax rates on the wealthy, which you advocate all the time, just so happens to also be the perfect response to a financial crisis nobody expected.” The economist is, however, careful to add that
derp isn’t destiny. But how can you — whether you’re a pundit, a policy maker, or just a concerned citizen — protect yourself against derpitude? The first line of defense, I’d argue, is to always be suspicious of people telling you what you want to hear.
Thus, if you’re a conservative opposed to a stronger safety net, you should be extra skeptical about claims that health reform is about to crash and burn, especially coming from people who made the same prediction last year and the year before (Obamacare derp runs almost as deep as inflation derp).
But if you’re a liberal who believes that we should reduce inequality, you should similarly be cautious about studies purporting to show that inequality is responsible for many of our economic ills, from slow growth to financial instability. Those studies might be correct — the fact is that there’s less derp on America’s left than there is on the right — but you nonetheless need to fight the temptation to let political convenience dictate your beliefs.
Fighting the derp can be hard, not least because it can upset friends who want to be reassured in their beliefs. But you should do it anyway: it’s your civic duty.
“But you simply must understand that it isn’t the economics they care about, and that applies equally to the economists (I’m speaking now of our rightists). They desire society to be structured in a certain way, and the economics that enables “big government” is anathema to that; therefore, no matter what Keynesianism, or this or that variant of it, says or predicts, it must be combated with arguments that purport to show the correctness of the view that small government is best of all, for one and all, for all time. The lux aeterna of minimal government and ultra-free markets will be fought for on the beaches, on the landing grounds, on the fields and in the streets, etc.”
That’s the point people miss. It’s not supposed to be permanent. It’s only in response to the current economic conditions. Much better option than trying to cut everything in response to govt debt that comes with a bad economy. If you think cutting is better in this situation, please justify your position. Cutting just feeds into the problem, imo. Why would I want to make it worse off?
“And here’s the thing: if you look at what Ms. Romer and many other Keynesians had to say, none of those telltale signs were present. They advocated deficit spending as a response to a severe downturn, not a universal elixir, and the measures they called for, like infrastructure spending and budget aid to state governments, were designed to be temporary rather than a permanent expansion (and the 2009 stimulus did, in fact, fade away on schedule.)”
I think Punkin’s only sense of community is here, yet we just scroll by his USA Today posts and his “Like I’ve been saying…”, “That’s what I’ve been telling everyone…”, “I’ve said this many times before…” posts. He’s a sage in his own mind but fails to realize that he’s such a doofus we just scroll by his middle school posts.
“You obviously don’t understand one of the basic requirements of teaching difficult (i.e. counter intuitive) concepts. The instructor must repeat the lesson in various forms until the shell of incomprehension shatters and the students finally “get it.” The idea that deficit spending, even in a deep recession, can stimulate the economy in a healthy manner defies ancient maxims rooted in the principles of family budgeting. Grasping the logic behind the Keynesian approach is a lesson not easily taught.”
Another stealth bailout. Nudge, nudge . . .
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102742478