Can someone please school Yellen?

From Bloomberg:

Janet Yellen Sees a ‘Very Depressed’ Housing Market

While Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen heaped praise on the U.S. labor market in her press conference on Thursday, the housing market got little love.

Residential real estate “remains very depressed,” she told reporters after announcing at the end of a two-day meeting that policy makers had decided against raising the benchmark interest rate. “Demand for housing should be there and should materialize as the job market improves and income growth improves.”

So what counts as a “very depressed” level of housing? Yellen cited housing starts that are “below levels that seem consistent with underlying demographics, especially in an economy that’s creating jobs.” Commerce Department data earlier Thursday showed that new-home construction dropped in August after a downward revision to the previous month, representing a pause in a general upward trend.

The Fed chief noted that while it’s “a very small sector of the economy,” housing “plays a supporting role” to bigger drivers such as consumer and business spending. The central bankers “recognize that the housing market is sensitive to mortgage rates” and that an increase in the federal funds rate will eventually impact consumer borrowing costs. Right now, the average 30-year fixed rate is still lingering close to all-time lows.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery. Bookmark the permalink.

76 Responses to Can someone please school Yellen?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. leftwing says:

    Note to Yellen:

    The market is paused precisely because of your policies. Other than building for investment (multi-unit, up strongly) or buying one place to stay through your kids’ educational cycle taking on SFH debt now at ZIRP is catching a suicide pass.

    The market is not that stupid.

    ***You literally can not give money away for free. Wake up.***

  3. Comrade Nom Deplume, the anon-tidote says:

    Is it my imagination or has the Twidiot been strangely silent? Seems his silence coincided with the resumption of classes at Union Community College. Hmmmm

  4. grim says:

    Fun….

    But consider this: Three hours after the pope’s plane arrives at John F. Kennedy International Airport on Thursday, the Giants kick off against the Washington Redskins at MetLife Stadium. Twelve miles away, the Yankees host the first contest of a seven-game homestand. The U.N. General Assembly, which the pope will address on Friday, will attract more than 160 heads of state — and their motorcades. Subways, PATH and NJ Transit trains will be full of fans going to watch the Red Bulls play soccer in Harrison, R. Kelly perform at the Barclays Center, Billy Joel sing at Madison Square Garden, and Beyoncé headline a free concert in Central Park.

  5. anon (the good one) says:

    @TheLimerickKing:

    Volkswagen shares are retreating
    The EPA says they are cheating
    In a world ruled by fraud
    The charges seem odd
    Volkswagen’s simply competing

  6. anon (the good one) says:

    @zerohedge:

    GM to pay $900MM for defect that left 124 dead

    Volkswagen to pay up to $18BN for cheating on emissions tests

  7. leftwing says:

    4. I do love NY.

    6. Anon, run of the mill for lib thought. Enviro>humans.

  8. yome says:

    Shale-oil production in the U.S. has proven much more resilient to low oil prices than many in the industry had anticipated, thanks largely to technological developments and efficiency gains. Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDSA decided in July to push ahead with developing its Appomattox project deep in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico after it succeeded in bringing down the costs by 20%. Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM, -2.39% said during its second-quarter earnings that the cost of engineering services and construction labor have fallen at least 10%, while offshore rig rates are anything from 25% to 40% cheaper than they were.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-gas-projects-worth-15-trillion-at-risk-2015-09-21?dist=beforebell

  9. grim says:

    Apologies from VW over the weekend read like an admission of guilt.

    I can not imagine the barrage of lawsuits.

    Reading an enthusiast forum over the weekend, the guys who are eyeballs deep in ECU code make it seem like this is patchable via software, but it will result in a reduction in fuel economy, performance, and long term reliability.

  10. grim says:

    Another damning piece of evidence is that this same engine sold in Europe requires the use of SCR to meet emissions standards (Urea injection, like BMW Blue Performance and Mercedes Bluetec).

  11. D-FENS says:

    Trump’s second position paper released last week.

    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/second-amendment-rights

  12. grim says:

    Trump has a concealed carry permit? Issued? Florida?

  13. A Home Buyer says:

    Shouldn’t the EPA have been doing / managing independent tests to verify the claims? Or am I mistaken that the EPA does something besides push paper?

  14. Juice Box says:

    Concealed carry permits nationwide?

    Trump will jump in the Polls..

  15. 197 Condo says:

    I figure big fall out in Germany since they are so into environment, etc..if these cars are really polluting that much there….big issue..

  16. leftwing says:

    “Reading an enthusiast forum over the weekend, the guys who are eyeballs deep in ECU code make it seem like this is patchable via software, but it will result in a reduction in fuel economy, performance, and long term reliability”

    Need to go to dealer to download or can they jam it through satellites?

  17. leftwing says:

    Question for the board I’m too lazy to research if someone has done it before:

    Have a child turning 18 shortly. Easiest and best way to get him building credit for the reporting agencies?

    Low ceiling credit card in his own name? Would a ‘partner’ card under my account show up in his name? Other?

  18. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    The most popular type of home in every major American city, charted

    The detached, single-family home — far and away the most common style of housing in America — is rare in Washington, D.C. Only about one in 10 homes inside the District is designed this way, with a private front door to the city, maybe a yard in the back, some buffer space keeping the neighbors at bay. Windows all the way around!

    Instead, we live differently here: with meager lawns (if we have any at all), common stoops, shared walls (or ceilings), and echoes of our neighbors’ dubious TV choices.

    The District is a city of row homes and modest apartments, which makes the feel of the place — and your housing options here — significantly different from what you’d find in New York or Chicago or Kansas City.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2015/09/21/the-most-popular-type-of-home-in-every-major-american-city-charted/

  19. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Pent up demand…

    Lennar Tops Expectations as Housing Market Continues to Improve

    Lennar Corp. said profit in its latest quarter soared as an ongoing recovery in the housing market led to an increase in deliveries and higher selling prices for the home builder.

    The housing market continued to improve in a slow and steady manner, Chief Executive Stuart Miller said, echoing what the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy-setting arm said in its statement last week. Mr. Miller said there is pent-up demand driven by a large production deficit built up over the last several years, an growing millennial population, reasonable affordability levels and high rental-occupancy rates.

    For the Miami-based builder, which has been focused on the higher-end first-time buyer and move-up market, deliveries during the quarter increased 16% while the value of new orders rose 20% to $2.3 billion. The average sale price of homes delivered gained 5% to $350,000.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/lennar-tops-expectations-as-housing-market-continues-to-improve-1442831939

  20. xolepa says:

    (18) Did this with all my kids…
    My local Credit Union offers a starter credit card that is covered with a secured deposit in hand. In other words, want a credit line of $500 on your credit card, keep a deposit of $500 with us.

    Within a year or two, their credit opened up..they were getting cc solicitations in the mail.

  21. grim says:

    Cosign a lease for a new Mustang…

  22. Anon E. Moose says:

    Twitidiot [6];

    That would be Government Motors?!? Mon Dieu!

    [Oops, can’t mention God to a leftist without a trigger warning. #NotSorry]

  23. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Sales of existing home sales drop 4.8% in August

    Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell 4.8% in August to an annual pace of 5.31 million, marking the first decline in four months, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. The sales rate in July was revised down slightly to a seasonally adjusted 5.58 million, but that was still the highest level in eight years. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected sales to drop to a rate of 5.52 million. The median price of homes sold was up 4.7% to $228,700 from 12 months ago. Inventories of existing homes on the market rose 1.3% to 2.29 million, representing 5.2 months’ supply at current sales trends. Sales fell in all major regions except the Northeast, where they were unchanged.

  24. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [24];

    Gees, did they fire all the copy editors, too? I’m no one’s grammar n@zi, but that headline is terrible.

  25. Defunding the Praetorian Guard says:

    Grim.

    Carry Permit for the likes of Trump is not an issued. Most don’t want it anyway. What his 0.01% brothers do is hired retired NYPD lieutenant rank and higher to drive them around. George Steinbrenner’s security guy were all Retired FBI from the Tampa field office.

    Leftwing.

    Try the Capital One 360 Teen Money account for you and your kid. When he turns 18 it becomes the 360 Checking account with a Line of Credit available. All of these under Capital One so getting a credit card from them will be easier.

  26. D-FENS says:

    Issued in NYC

    grim says:
    September 21, 2015 at 9:27 am
    Trump has a concealed carry permit? Issued? Florida?

  27. leftwing says:

    Thanks for the responses on credit. Anyone know if a partner or cosigned (under me) card gets him on record with the agencies? Seem to get conflicting info from banks.

    Grim, “Cosign a lease for a new Mustang…”

    Careful, if he somehow gets into my login on this blog you may have an 18 yo showing up on your doorstep with adoption papers…..

  28. Libturd in Union says:

    Lefty,

    Nothing builds credit quicker than a paid off loan. You will build credit much more slowly with a credit card than with an installment loan. And you’ll need to cosign for their first loan. But their credit will build quite quickly. As for the advice of using a secured credit card…it shouldn’t be difficult to get an unsecured card with a low limit. They prey on college students. In most cases you won’t need to cosign. Of course, you better read your kids the riot act on proper usage. When I was in school I would say about 1 in 3 kids ended up in CC trouble from those dumb cards. One guy I roomed with owed 40K by the end of his senior year. His minimum payments were more than his rent.

  29. Libturd in Union says:

    Lefty…I built my credit mainly off of a $5,000 loan on my first car. A year into that loan, I was able to get all of the basic credit cards. When the 3-year auto loan was paid off, I was able to get the higher end cards. Never close a card that doesn’t have an annual fee. Regardless of whether you use it or not, it extends the average age of each credit line which is a big determining factor in credit score. The biggest mistake I ever made with my credit was closing the first credit card I got in college. They instituted a fee about 15 years after I received the card. Once closed, my average age of credit line was reduced by 2/3rds and my credit score dropped about 30 points. I was clueless back then. This was also around the time I went for my first mortgage and I’m sure it cost me a bit in interest rate.

  30. grim says:

    I got my own secured card, it was one of those $500 deposit programs. As soon as he/she can get something better, go that route and close the secured card. I had that stupid secured card for like 10 years, it was my longest running credit card. Of course once you cancel it, you take a big hit. I cancelled my Amex gold card, since the benefits were no longer worth the $95 annual fee. Took a hit, since I’ve had that thing for a long time. Oh well.

    The fact that the credit scores put a high value on long running single account histories is a load of crap these days. I churn and burn points cards.

  31. yome says:

    #18
    When my son needed to buy his car, he got a secured loan.I secured it with my own money. It is like borrowing from me but with the bank. I made sure the bank reported the on time payments to the agencies. He paid less interest and the interest went to my account.I did not mind my money making less

  32. Libturd in Union says:

    Often, rather than close a card, you can ask customer service to transfer the line of credit to a non-annual fee card. Even with Amex now that they offer traditional monthly payment type cards. Chase seems to offer the most lucrative credit card offers. I always call them when they reject my online applications and have them share the credit line over multiple cards. The squeaky wheel…

  33. D-FENS says:

    Donald J. Trump
    ‏@realDonaldTrump
    Carly Fiorina did such a horrible job at Lucent and HP, virtually destroying both companies, that she never got another CEO job offer! Pres.

  34. [10] Mazda diesel engineers must be laughing today. They’ve been delaying the US launch of their 2.2L twin-turbo diesel for 3+ years now in their biggest car (Mazda6) because they haven’t attained the right mix of power and emissions. They’re trying to give it the torque of a V8 combined with 40mpg highway and still meet emissions testing with out a Urea exhaust treatment. Last I heard they were probably going to go the Urea route.

    Apologies from VW over the weekend read like an admission of guilt.

    I can not imagine the barrage of lawsuits.

    Reading an enthusiast forum over the weekend, the guys who are eyeballs deep in ECU code make it seem like this is patchable via software, but it will result in a reduction in fuel economy, performance, and long term reliability.

  35. grim says:

    33 – Amex refused.

  36. Libturd in Union says:

    Doesn’t always work I suppose.

  37. grim says:

    Just one thing to consider. VW NOx output was in certain cases up to 40x over the standard.

    A big ass diesel pickup (of the sort you’ll see driving around NJ, never having hauled a load of anything) will in almost every case, emit more than 100 TIMES the small car standard, and it’s 100% legal.

    So that brand new, legal, Ford Superduty 6.7 liter F250 will spew far more diesel-related NOx polution per mile than the VW ever would, even remotely. Even having lied, VW still pollutes less than half the amount.

  38. grim says:

    Not to mention that pretty much everyone that owns one as their daily driver will chip them, and bypass most of the emissions controls, to get more performance, probably 1000x the small car standard.

    You know there are thousands of people that do exactly that, intentionally make them pollute MORE, just for FUN?

    Screw VW – Why is nobody doing anything about these people? Why not fine them $35,000 per occurence.

    Rolling Coal

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [5,6] Troll-who-must-not-be-named

    Those were both surprisingly witty and cogent. Of course, they weren’t original, but they were not so snarky either.

    Nice share.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [34] DFENS

    “Donald J. Trump
    ‏@realDonaldTrump
    Carly Fiorina did such a horrible job at Lucent and HP, virtually destroying both companies, that she never got another CEO job offer! Pres.”

    This, coming from the guy who turned strategic default into a fine art form, is hilarious.

    Pot, meet kettle.

  41. phoenix says:

    40 Grim,
    Please describe the personality of the type of person who would drive such pickup that does not ever carry a load…….

  42. phoenix says:

    “What the Volkswagen scandal illustrates is that profit maximization is so deeply embedded in corporate culture that when push comes to shove, the vast majority of companies will put the bottom line above any moral case for change, and sometimes even cheat to keep the short-term profits coming in.

    The only way this is going to change is if companies create a revolution in the way that staff are incentivized.”

  43. walking bye says:

    @44 The type of person is generally one who needs to move their horses around on the weekend. Also they need to go to Mexico to pickup new ponies every year. The trainers there are much better.

  44. grim says:

    46 – Most wouldn’t fathom having to remove the rubber testes from the hitch to be able to attach a trailer.

  45. walking bye says:

    My mistake as I’ve only seen women drive these things. Tough as nails with a mouth that would make a sailor blush.

  46. Splat What Was He Thinking says:

    I am an anarchist.

    I am the Antichrist.

    Bernie-Trump MMF cage match.

    Winner take all.

    BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!

  47. Splat What Was He Thinking says:

    Physical. Shiny. Accept no substitutes.

    ‘It’s not money’, said the Bernank.

    Hint: that’s how you know it’s money.

    Back to running the gauntlet of skateboard panhandlers here in the PRI.

  48. Juice Box says:

    NAR reports a miss and you wonder why?

    “The kids in the basement are staying there.
    One lasting scar from the deepest recession since the 1930s is the phenomenon of young adults, facing their own financial challenges, forced to squeeze in the homes of their parents. And new data show the trend is getting worse, not better .
    In 2015, 15.1 percent of 25 to 34 year olds were living with their parents, a fourth straight annual increase, according to an analysis of new Census Bureau data by the Population Reference Bureau in Washington. The proportion is the highest since at least 1960, according to demographer Mark Mather, associate vice president with PRB.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-18/here-s-evidence-that-millennials-are-still-living-with-their-parents

  49. Fast Eddie says:

    While Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen heaped praise on the U.S. labor market in her press conference on Thursday, the housing market got little love.

    Residential real estate “remains very depressed,” she told reporters after announcing at the end of a two-day meeting that policy makers had decided against raising the benchmark interest rate.

    No Sh1t?! It’s bad! I’m telling you, people are really f.ucked. Salaries have gone nowhere in a generation and we’re tasting a deflationary period. The damages from overpaying for houses during the 2000s coupled with the evaporation of real jobs equals a very painful period. It’s still the middle innings, folks.

  50. grim says:

    From the Record:

    NJ minimum wage to remain at $8.38 an hour in 2016

    New Jersey’s minimum wage will remain $8.38 an hour in 2016, the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development said Monday.

    The wage has been tied to the inflation rate since January 2014. According to the department, the consumer price index for all urban wage earners – the inflation measure that is used – edged down over the past year.

    In November 2013, New Jersey voters approved a constitutional amendment that increased the minimum wage from $7.25 to $8.25 an hour and linked future increases to the inflation rate.

  51. phoenix says:

    52. Tell that to my wife that wants to spend like a drunken sailor…..

  52. grim says:

    No Sh1t?! It’s bad! I’m telling you, people are really f.ucked. Salaries have gone nowhere in a generation and we’re tasting a deflationary period. T

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. residents are earning less than they did 10 years ago, data shows

    The recession has come and gone, but incomes in New Jersey have still not recovered.

    Newly released Census data shows the median household income in New Jersey rose slightly to $71,919 in 2014, from $71,303 the year before. However, it’s a statistically insignificant change, meaning that incomes in New Jersey stayed stagnant.

    In addition, compared to median incomes from 2005, New Jersey residents are earning about 3 percent less — showing the continued effect of the recession on the Garden State.

    According to Census data, the median household income in New Jersey 10 years ago, after adjusting for inflation, was $74,757.

    Nationwide, it’s a similar story with the median household income coming in at $53,657. It’s the third year of income stagnation after two years of decrease.

    Comparing household incomes over the last 10 years shows incomes started to fall in 2009, which is when the effects of the recession were fully felt by workers. The “Great Recession” started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.

    In New Jersey, median household incomes kept declining until 2012, when they experience a small uptick and continued to stagnate since.

  53. anon (the good one) says:

    if there’s something i would teach an 18 yr old is to have no debt

    unless he’s ready to buy a house – otherwise no need for no reporting agency

    leftwing says:
    September 21, 2015 at 9:48 am
    Question for the board I’m too lazy to research if someone has done it before:

    Have a child turning 18 shortly. Easiest and best way to get him building credit for the reporting agencies?

    Low ceiling credit card in his own name? Would a ‘partner’ card under my account show up in his name? Other?

  54. Firestormik says:

    RE: Starting credit history.
    I think the best way now is to open a secured credit card account.
    Below is I think a good way to start. No fee
    https://www.dcu.org/loans/visa-secured.html

  55. Comrade Nom Deplume, Device-Hopping Today says:

    [47] grim,

    “46 – Most wouldn’t fathom having to remove the rubber testes from the hitch to be able to attach a trailer.”

    Flashback to the first time I saw one (two?) of those. It was on a pickup truck, with Texas plates (natch), that was parked in the Ellipse. The Ellipse had been closed to traffic and all of the parking was for the “executive complex”, meaning the old and new Exec office blgs, Treasury and, of course, the White House.

    I passed that truck on my way to work every day, parked in pretty much the same place, and so out-of-place looking among the other vehicles driven by members of the Bush administration staff. I’d like to think it belonged to someone of some importance.

  56. Statler Waldorf says:

    They will be handing out credit cards like candy on the college campus…

  57. Firestormik says:

    Not anymore

    Statler Waldorf says:

    September 21, 2015 at 3:27 pm

    They will be handing out credit cards like candy on the college campus…

  58. Juice Box says:

    # 56 – OK there Tyler Durden.

    You need a FICO score to rent even an apartment these days, having no credit will mean Mommy and Daddy will be co-signing until you are into your thirties.

    I would suggest telling your kids to get a line of credit on their checking account and get a used car loan from their bank and buy a beater with it. Quickest way to get a decent score is your own bank. Credit cards for someone starting out are a losing game with high interest and any points and benefits only go to those that already have high scores and incomes.

  59. chicagofinance says:

    There is a backstory here……WTF is happening? Are you transporting contraband across state lines?

    Splat What Was He Thinking says:
    September 21, 2015 at 1:31 pm
    Physical. Shiny. Accept no substitutes.

    ‘It’s not money’, said the Bernank.

    Hint: that’s how you know it’s money.

    Back to running the gauntlet of skateboard panhandlers here in the PRI.

  60. Libturd at home says:

    Yup…no more credit cards handed out like candy. Thanks a lot Muslim president Obama.

    http://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/credit-cards/cosigner-credit-card-21/

  61. Libturd at home says:

    Yup…no more credit cards handed out like candy. Thanks a lot Muslim president Obama.

    http://tinyurl.com/damn-you-obama

  62. Libturd at home says:

    http://tinyurl.com/82eu3gh

    A decent choice of student cards requiring cosigning. Still, the auto loan on the beater is probably the best way to go.

  63. Splat Mofo says:

    Chi (63)-

    My physical being is contraband.

    “There is a backstory here……WTF is happening? Are you transporting contraband across state lines?”

  64. Splat Mofo says:

    Bow down to Zod.

    He is all knowing.

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume, celebrating first day of school says:
  66. Comrade Nom Deplume, celebrating first day of school says:

    [68] splat

    Iny youth, with a thin stache and Goatee, I once emerged from a pool and my friends started with Hail General Zod. The name stuck for about 9 years

  67. Libturd at home says:

    When I emerge from a pool, people claim they’ve seen a woolly mammoth.

  68. Comrade Nom Deplume, celebrating first day of school says:

    A bald wooly mammoth

  69. D-FENS says:

    Trump is bat sh1t crazy. If he keeps it up, he’s got my vote.

  70. leftwing says:

    “if there’s something i would teach an 18 yr old is to have no debt”

    If the last eight years has taught me anything it’s load up on any free debt prudence be d@mned, the schmucks who saved will bail you out usually supported by some echo chamber of pitchfork populists.

    Not what I’m going to teach my 18 year old, but he’s also not going to make the same mistakes of conservative financial management I did.

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good post.

    leftwing says:
    September 21, 2015 at 10:32 pm
    “if there’s something i would teach an 18 yr old is to have no debt”

    If the last eight years has taught me anything it’s load up on any free debt prudence be d@mned, the schmucks who saved will bail you out usually supported by some echo chamber of pitchfork populists.

    Not what I’m going to teach my 18 year old, but he’s also not going to make the same mistakes of conservative financial management I did.

  72. Another day closer to oblivion. Hoard valuables and await the end of days.

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