Mortgage rates touch 5% again

From CNBC:

Mortgage rates jump past 5%, signaling more home price cuts ahead

Millennials are in their prime homebuying years, and they’re used to cheap credit. So they might be in for a rude awakening as mortgage rates jump.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed loan sat just below 4 percent a year ago, after dropping below 3.5 percent in 2016. It just crossed the 5 percent mark, according to Mortgage News Daily. That is the first time in eight years, and it is poised to move higher. Five percent may still be historically cheap, but higher rates, combined with other challenges facing today’s housing market could cause potential buyers to pull back.

“Five percent is definitely an emotional level inasmuch as it scares prospective buyers about how high rates may continue to go,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of MND.

Home sales have been sliding for much of this year, and total annual sales are expected to come in lower than last year. Affordability is the clear culprit. With rates now more than a full percentage point higher than a year ago, that adds at least $200 more to a monthly mortgage payment for a $300,000 loan. It also knocks some borrowers out of qualification because lenders are strict on how much debt a borrower can carry in relation to his or her income.

“For buyers that are inclined to buy now, they’re doing the same things they’ve been doing: Looking at the appalling lack of available inventory, seeing if any of it meets their needs, and deciding whether or not they can afford the monthly payment. In that sense, 5 percent takes some buyers out of some markets, and it plays a supporting role in the leveling-off process that’s already well underway for home sales,” Graham said.

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80 Responses to Mortgage rates touch 5% again

  1. The Original NJ ExPat says:


  2. chicagofinance says:

    How valuable is your time for a cost savings of less than $500/year? A phone call to Optimum with a threat should be sufficient if you feel inclined…..

    No One says:
    October 9, 2018 at 7:02 pm
    I finally have FIOS available. Should I switch from Cablevision (Optimum) with which I have no particular complaint?

  3. No One says:

    I’m more concerned about quality of the picture and sound, channel availability, internet speed and reliability than in saving money, re FIOS VS Optimum. I wonder how long FIOS works during power outages too.

  4. Not D-Fense says:

    That Trump Medicare for All editorial is the best and loudest rallying call for anyone that is NOT a Locust Boomer to see what is really going on is a generational warfare of the old and wealthy against the young and poor by a morally bankrupt free market delusional senile old f6rts.

    It makes clear that you either have Medicare for All or Medicare for None.

  5. Not D-Fense says:

    I say, let’s have a 15 year period with Medicare for None, to cull out the boomer locust infestation and than reset as Medicare for All.

  6. Grim says:

    I’ve come to the realization that single payer can work, but only if we put strict policies in place to significantly curtail unhealthy or risky behaviors.

    This would likely need to include public shaming of overweight people, fat camps, denials of coverage for risky behaviors like not wearing helmets, etc. It would require huge taxes on high carb and fatty foods.

  7. Nomad says:


    Single payer is coming. Healthcare system is not sustainable and diabetes alone on its current vector will bankrupt the US healthcare system since the disease is so prevalent and has so many ancillary health complications. Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) is becoming the norm for people with diabetes (Dexcom and Abbott are the big players with different technology). Dex sensor will send blood glucose readings every 5 minutes to a smartphone and from there, the data can go to the cloud. Dex has a relationship with Verily (Google Health) to warehouse and analyze the data. Still early on in the process but most people with diabetes will have a CGM within 3-4 years. 20+ years ago a health insurance company tried to index premiums to lifestyles but it got shot down. Fee for service is going away, fee for outcomes will become the norm. High cost of Rx products is due not to the manufacturer but the distribution systems (PBMs) and this could change as Amazon is growing a team of people for the Rx space. Some speculate they will build their own PBM and with AWS, they too can warehouse and analyze gobs of patient data. If you like the device space, Dexcom shares have had a pretty good run. Senseonics is the new kid in the CGM space and may be a take out candidate. MDT also has one that pairs with their insulin pump.

    PS – in terms of security, is Blackberry still king of the hill or is iPhone 7 or higher = or better?

    Last- diabetes is not just due to overweight. Actually an auto immune disease. Type 1, pancreas just stops. Type 2, they still do not know what really causes it. Weight usually increases insulin resistance but not the entire story. No meaningful therapeutic improvements in last 20+ years (defined as sustainable clinically significant A1C reduction).

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “It may be a reflection on human nature, that such devices should be necessary to control the abuses of government. But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary.”

  9. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    I wonder who wrote that for Trump? :P

  10. homeboken says:

    Following up on yesterday’s discussion on growing old in the work-place. The only way I have discovered to counter-act the very real possibility of being replaced by a younger, cheaper version of myself as I age is to tie myself to revenue. I made the switch from back-office to front-office 5 years ago. It was brutal for the first 1.5 years as I built up a book of steady business. But the decision was clear for me having been laid off twice within 4 years and searching for a replacement back-office job.

    Get into a role that produces revenue every year. I get paid 100% on commission, we eat only what we kill in this family. Once you get used to the pressure that being in that role creates you can remove the fear of being laid-off. Cutting my job will cost my company real $ the day they cut me. If my company decides to cut me anyway, then it is much easier to take my book of business to another shop. It’s a big risk transitioning to this comp model, but it does insulate me from the impact of lay-offs.

  11. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    When I ran the numbers on my father’s practice. Over a 3 year period, they took in 750k in payments. Billed out 6 million. Medicine could easily be a cash business. Doctors would be happy to collect a payment just like your plumber…at least the smart ones would.

  12. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    My strategy is to continue to try to tie myself in to print-related technologies that few others in my company have a clue about how to use or program. For example, I’m the only person who knows how to color calibrate all of our color digital equipment. I also tied myself into our MS via ODBC data pulls to number crunch for executives. If you need a report created in near-time? I’m the go to. Then, I have so much legacy knowledge of our oldest typesetting systems that are stupidly still in use that all of the developers have to go through me to understand how these platforms work. So far, so good. We’ll see if I make it through our recent takeover by a much larger corp. We were recently bought out by a 14 billion dollar foreign company who wants to be #1 in the states. We’ll see how this impacts my job.

  13. joyce says:


    “Type 2, they still do not know what really causes it. “

    While not necessarily causative, isn’t type 2 VERY strongly correlated with certain lifestyle choices?

  14. 1987 Condo says:

    “Client facing..revenue producing”….that is what I repeat to my kids as best way to be secure and make money. That is based on 10 years in “corporate”, then 20 years in outsourcing, last 15 in sales.

  15. Nomad says:

    Joyce, for many type 2s, yes weight is a cause but truth be told, with all the research, they don’t definitively know the cause because it can vary. Proper nutrition is important and obesity / sedentary lifestyles are a big contributor, but that being said, some people do the right thing and still have a tough time controlling blood glucose levels. On that note, Geisinger has a model that is working well for many – patients get free food, free healthy food M-F and are taught proper nutrition.

    Young doc in Camden NJ years ago literally inputted every person from 3 mid-rise low income housing projects and found that a small portion of the people consumed the bulk of healthcare expenditures. One guy, 350+ lb diabetic had repeatedly come to the ER for help but no one ever explained diabetes to him or proper nutrition etc. Once he got intensive training and follow up, weight dropped and health improved.

    For people with diabetes, cost of intensive intervention, coaching, proper food and exercise is way cheaper than treating the debilitating side effects of diabetes such as CV, retinopathy, neuropathy and nephropathy.

    12 min film on what parents of a Type 1 deal with “Midnight, 3 & 6”. Parents every day test childs blood glucose levels at Midnight, 3am and 6am.

    BTW – IT guy from Wegmans got so frustrated at the inability to monitor child’s blood glucose levels he developed software / interface for the kids pump and CGM all without FDA. Set off firestorm and other entrepreneurs jumped on the band wagon with their own systems and while they ultimately need FDA approval (510k) the message to FDA is your holding innovation back.

  16. 1987 Condo says:

    Americans have no financial penalties associated with poor life style choices (except perhaps cigarette tax–and that seemed to work). This ability to shift the risk of poor lifestyle choices to the general population would need to change to reduce costs.

  17. ExExEx says:

    You know what its nice to see an intelligent discuss. Allow me to bring things down a notch. We are heading for a complete and total sh*t-fest. If California is an indicator as the number of ‘indigenous Americans….’ falls so goes our fortunes. Low IQ is real and the Europeans that emigrated here enjoyed a 10-20 point delta (on average) from all of the other knuckleheads that arrived. Why? I have no idea. It just “is”. Now couple that with decreased expectations, schools that allow their students to do as they wish, and safe places that are anything but safe and you have the modern version of the USA. SO yeah, we’re screwed. Smoke em if ya got em.

  18. Not Joyce says:

    There is a very,very good possibility that the immune system is involved. Immune seems to be involved in a lot of stuff, including mental health. Two different cases involving leukemia. Bone marrow transplant kills off old immune system and is replaced by donor.

    One, a schizophrenic with leukemia had bone marrow transplant, leukemia fixed, schizophrenia disappears. Second, leukemia patient received bone marrow from donor brother who had schizophrenia, leukemia fixed, pt developed schizophrenia.

    Lifestyle choices seems to affect the internal calibration and response of body cells to the energy present/need cycle. Sugar in blood begets insulin that makes it usable or put to storage as glycogen initially. Low blood sugar triggers release of glucagon to free up sugar for use. This 2 point calibration system tends to go off calibration, if you spend your day eating frequently and use less energy enough not to allow the glucagon/glycogen side to work.

    Of top of my head, a study out of New Castle Univ,UK, with a starvation diet (600? cals a day), reversed type 2 diabetes in about 2/3+ of patients starting after 6+ weeks. A big link is the above 2 point sugar calibration system the body seems to have.

    joyce says:
    October 10, 2018 at 10:05 am

    “Type 2, they still do not know what really causes it. “

    While not necessarily causative, isn’t type 2 VERY strongly correlated with certain lifestyle choices?

  19. Not Joyce says:

    By the way, if you want to know how it feels when Glucagon kicks in, is that nauseous feeling after being hungry or all of the suddenly you start to do heavy activity a long time after a meal, it last less than 5 minutes and afterward you have a rush of energy and back to normal.

    ExExEx, Very likely they were that much brighter, because more than not they were likely smarter crazy with higher than average sociopathic tendencies. And they perform, and one thing you should know by now, if you perform you are on top. In short this classic commercial explains it better

    Low IQ is real and the Europeans that emigrated here enjoyed a 10-20 point delta (on average) from all of the other knuckleheads that arrived. Why? I have no idea. It just “is”

  20. Bystander says:


    I would be dusting off the old resume. Having process ownership and a good reputation might buy some time but rest assured they will come for you. The consultants will be inside the doors in about 6-8 months. They like curry and sitar..and just moved to Edison.

    I would love for Blumpy to see how expenses are managed in private sector. I am in PMO budget hell at new gig. If you have a slight overrun, they have people all over you to fix. A resource booking time without proper allocation..caught before month end. We have 4 forecasts for roles open in Pune and 3 workers who turned us down day they were supposed to start. I doubt they even have concepts of time, budget and resource management at most NJ govt. office is.

  21. Not ExExEx says:


    So if you are immigrating here because you are a visionary square peg in a round hole, you are likely to be smarter, work harder, and just perform better because you know you can’t go back, than someone coming for economic reasons. The economic reasons guy can go back. The crazy square peg one, no one wants him back, he’s here for the long haul.

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume, Against Involuntary Servitude says:

    I question whether you can legally end private health insurance or prohibit doctors from taking it or engaging in concierge medicine. At most, you can revoke qualified tax status for plans and benefits but that would cause a huge uproar.

    This isn’t Canada or the U.K.; our constitution has rights not present in theirs. I predict an epic battle should this or any identical state-level legislation come to pass.

    ATEOTD, it won’t. The US won’t countenance a single-payer system. And even if it did, you’d set up situations where concierge medicine flourishes, especially offshore.

  23. xolepa says:

    Blue Ribbon,
    My oldest is finishing fellowship this year – Ped Anesthesiology. He does not want to go into private practice – yet, anyway. But he keeps on talking about healthcare direction and is now being recruited for Teaching School positions. Hospital setting only for him.

    A hospital nearby in NJ wants him, but he won’t bite. His wife is pulling him to MD/DE area, where he is now.

    Closer to her mom. What a sap.

  24. xolepa says:

    As an aside, I am half seriously thinking of going back to IT consulting this winter. Looked at the market for my main skill set and it seems that my Enterprise level software is transitioning to WorkDay. I’m too old (hee.hee) to learn that sht over again. So I looked at Mainframe positions and found some paying $75 hourly in the next town from me. I did mainframe last 15 years ago, Cobol 3 years back. Over 25 years exp. in that. No brainer.

    Is there anyone left with these skill sets? Any comments?

  25. Comrade Nom Deplume, Constitutional Apologist says:

    More things that the left says don’t happen:

    To most leftists’ he was acceptable collateral damage.

  26. Not Comrade Nom Deplume, Against Involuntary Servitude says:


    The worth is in cutting the overhead and standardization not based on quarterly profits. If there was no Medicare, you would still have hospital ward rooms vs semi-private rooms (Medicare requirement). Medicare rules is what desegregated the hospitals down south.

    The concierge guys can go their way like a plumber. If there are customers, they will thrive.

  27. 1987 Condo says:

    Kooky Kanadians:

    America’s winning because of the ‘Trudeau effect,’ says Canadian professor :

    ‘They favour taxing corporations and the rich, and adding regulatory impediments and red tape to corporate activity. They are big supporters of income redistribution as opposed to making the pie bigger for everyone. They want to regulate the economy and nudge corporations to submit to the Liberal government’s social views and economic philosophy.’

    Athanassakos, writing in the Financial Post, chalks up the underperformance to the “Trudeau effect,” in reference to the Canadian prime minister.

    “Trudeau and his ministers have made it clear they want corporations to become benevolent organizations that put workers before shareholders,” he continued. “When a democratically elected majority government ends up following policies driven by activists, it’s neglecting its larger mission and mandate and that will eventually hurt the economy. This is what the stock market is anticipating.”

  28. 1987 Condo says:

    My son describes the “better” neighborhoods there as the ones where you don’t need the app to figure out what streets to avoid.

  29. credit loans guaranteed approval payday loan com direct lenders installment loans [url=]loans in maryland[/url]

  30. Glen says:

    No One at 7:50 am

    You’ll love it. One nice thing is you can run “network extenders” from the main router, through the coax cable, so that you don’t have to have cat5 runs all through your house. fios also has a battery backup in the box, cablevision doesn’t. I have a generator so I don’t know it would have lasted, but I still think you won’t regret it. Check out, you’ll see how after Altice bought cablevision, it went to sh*t

  31. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Market butt ugly. Not good for mid-term incumbents coming up.

  32. leftwing says:

    No impact on midterms yet. Big picture minor move down. Plus, too far out from voting still.

    Although I did take the oppty to exit my KBH 24 puts and LOW 113 puts from two weeks ago :)

    Did a little bargain hunting. BSX is one.

  33. Not Libturd says:

    Add to that, the hurricane is going right in the middle of jesus loving whiteville. And you know that those holy rollers are screaming “jesus save me” now. But in a week, it’ll be Uncle Sam save me, give me food, give me shelter and give me a check.

  34. Not Libturdoh says:

    Add to that, the hurricane is going right in the middle of jesus loving whiteville. And you know that those holy rollers are screaming “jesus save me” now. But in a week, it’ll be Uncle Sam save me, give me food, give me shelter and give me a check.

  35. leftwing says:

    Hey Ex, you posted your prior call on Anglo I think a couple days back. Nice.

    Don’t have time to find my short call, it’s out there sometime in the last two weeks…feels good.

    Interesting to see tomorrow. May have a carry through of selling today which would not be atypical. Watch Europe a bit, although not necessarily the best indicator. It does feel like algos kicked in at the end of today, broke a couple technical levels and selling really accelerated. May be overdone because of that, I started to hop in at the bell long. May catch a haircut a little if down tomorrow but, hey, no one in the history of markets has bought at absolute bottom and sold at absolute top.

    You mentioned you have a separate group forum or email on stocks…put me on, baby!

  36. chicagofinance says:

    Q: need a quick one off for a dishwasher…… where to people go for price, delivery, and install? Need to go to Monmouth County.

  37. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I called to buy EQT Friday at 1:30PM. It’s still up since then. I lost 1% today, no stops hit though, so it’s just unrealized.

  38. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^ I mean I’m down 1% across my whole portfolio today. Bought $200K in 2.55% 1 year CDs today, but that’s just to replace the same amount in 1 years that’ll be maturing in 8 days.

  39. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Up here, Karl’s is great. Just find any mom & pop in enterprise zone and give them some internet prices. BTW, our Maytag has performed flawlessly for 8 years (SS inside and out). Install is super simple if replacing an old one. Connect power, cold water, drain and then mount. Literally takes 5 minutes.

  40. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Try these guys.

  41. Not Bloomberg News says:

    This doesn’t help healthcare costs..$1 million salary for head of Social Impact dept..

    “I am confident that Ms. [Michellene] Davis remains the proper executive to lead the Social Impact and Community Investment practice for RWJBarnabas Health,” he said.

    According to IRS records, Davis received a $1,061,866 salary in 2017

  42. Bystander says:


    You ok with $75/hr? Assume that is W2 and little to no benefits. That calculates out to about 100k a year full time job. Sounds light to me for your line of work. Most Jr level in Ops roles make that much, no offense.

  43. Project on Tap says:

    Honeybrook Cabinets – does anyone have an opinion on those?

    vs Kemper cabinets? I have read a bunch of mixed reviews on them…some people were completely railing them while others were happy.

  44. leftwing says:

    I don’t know what’s worse. The salary, or that the hospital actually has a position Head of Social Impact and Community Investment.

    Crossing that make believe department with a $1m salary is laughable.

    Although I guess the Libs need more ‘Bamas in training….not enough dough in straight up community organizing….

  45. xolepa says:

    I’m fine right now, actually. Retired, but with several multi-families, closing on another in a week or two, plus taking SS benefits and hoping not to touch 401k until 69+.

    I would be totally in the black, except building expensive 2nd home in Florida.

    If I get a short term gig, I’ll be set for at least another year.

  46. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    RWJ has always been a political patronage pit. It wasn’t long ago Chris Christie was prosecuting Dems because all he had to do was look at what positions they had at RWJ and interview a few people to determine they were fake no show jobs that paid out big.

  47. leftwing says:

    I like photography.

    new find….from the only American not on earth on 9/11….

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Marla and Tiff@ny were doing OK as the new PPT until yesterday.

  49. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^spa day. Who coulda known?

  50. Juice Box says:

    Soyuz rocket malfunctioned this morning- Astronauts after separation and a “ballistic descent” live to tell about it…

  51. Grim says:

    I’d call that a successful mission.

  52. ExEssex says:

    Trump crashes a perfectly good economy – maga

  53. Juice Box says:

    HoHumm…seems the like the man behind the curtain will be getting fired….

    “President Trump called the Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate increases “a mistake,” suggesting that the central bank was to blame after Wednesday’s stock-market plunge.”

  54. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    What always seems to blow my mind is the calm before the storm. There must be some psychological reason that market volatility almost always hits record lows prior to these blow-off tops. Regardless, those who have been around long enough know not to panic through these and if anything, should be bought into. With that said, any long names that jump out at anyone here? I like Fedex and Allison Transmission. I also like replacing urinal pucks before they are too hard to grab with rubber gloves.

    Finally, anyone do an NAS to stream PLEX from home? Any suggestions for a mid-powered solution? Currently have been running the home network off of older laptops that have broken keyboards or flaky power adapter inputs and I simply have two USB drives attached to it. I stream Plex wirelessly and it works OK. I am concerned about future bandwidth need, especially with 4K becoming the video standard. I was looking at the WD My Cloud Mirror, but not super impressed by WD quality in the past. Especially when it comes to their non-geeky mass-produced stuff. Let me know.

  55. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Chi, didja buy a dishwasher? Hope you didn’t fall for Bosch!

  56. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    What’s the symbol? GORE?


    · Animal testing
    · Animal-derived products, animal farming, and other exploitation activities
    · Animals in sport and entertainment
    · Research, development, and use of genetically engineered animals

    · Extraction or refining, or services principally related to the extraction or refining, of fossil fuels
    · Burning of fossil fuels for energy production
    · Other activities having a significant negative environmental impact (e.g., high carbon intensity activities, high climate change impact, habitat destruction), unless the applicable company undertakes positive initiatives that effectively address those impacts

    · Tobacco products
    · Armaments and products specifically designed for military and defense uses
    · Contributions to the abuse of human rights or lack of robust, detailed, and independently published policies covering human rights and child/forced labor”

  57. chicagofinance says:

    Turns out my co-worker…… her sister’s niece is the wife of the American on that flight…… guy has 11 and 7 year old kids that had to watch that…… both parents are Air Force vets, but still…….

    Juice Box says:
    October 11, 2018 at 9:21 am
    Soyuz rocket malfunctioned this morning- Astronauts after separation and a “ballistic descent” live to tell about it…

  58. chicagofinance says:

    Thank you! I get asked everything…… it’s amazing the amount of goodwill that can be created with a little legwork…… stuff that seems easy and straightforward to most of us here seems to confound so many…..

    Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    October 11, 2018 at 11:47 am
    Chi, didja buy a dishwasher? Hope you didn’t fall for Bosch!

  59. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    .60 management fee?

    It’s quite expensive to save the world, no?

  60. chicagofinance says:

    Gulf stream and heating a 11K sq ft house is expensive…… they also need Saudi seed money…..

    Libturd…look me up in Costa Rica says:
    October 11, 2018 at 11:56 am
    .60 management fee?

    It’s quite expensive to save the world, no?

  61. chicagofinance says:

    Get them early or miss out….

    A 4-year-old girl in the Bronx came home from daycare with two capsules of crack cocaine — and had apparently put some in her mouth, according reports.

    “She could have died if she ingested this,” mom Sabrina Straker told WPIX-TV. “I was furious.”

    The girl, Serenity, said another child had gifted her the capsules at school last Friday, saying they were his “teeth,” and she put them in her mouth.

    The mom rushed Serenity to the hospital and the little girl tested positive for crack cocaine, News 4 reported. Detectives at the 46th Precinct also confirmed the capsules contained the drug.

    Yvette Joseph, the daycare director, told the outlet someone must have thrown the drugs over a fence, sending them into the hands of one of the children.

    “We checked our center thoroughly and all of the children are safe,” she said.

    The NYPD is investigating.

  62. leftwing says:

    Lib, dipped a toe in the water yesterday with BSX and FDX. A little bit of HD this morning.

    Looking to add to HD. Been net long BAC for a bit, holding through tomorrow and Monday when they announce.

    Caution I mop floors and have absolutely no certifications or licenses relating to financial advice or securities.

    More importantly, I enter these positions through options so the risk profile is definitely not a straight long. For HD for example I’m profitable between 199 and 220 and slightly unprofitable otherwise. Frankly, I took this ‘long’ position almost as a hedge against the shares going up as I really want them at 180-175 but don’t want to risk a bounce back in the market and missing the train entirely. So while I’m ‘long’ HD I’m expecting (hoping?) to get it cheaper at which time I’ll really load up. Relatively same scenario BAC.

    Bigger picture I think history shows these market breaks last more than one day so would expect another day or two of down at least. And, for sh1ts and giggles, earnings kick off tomorrow with all the major banks announcing surrounded by real uncertainty – loan growth, yield spread effect, and int’l exposure for C and JPM. Banks wet the bed tomorrow look out below on SPY.

    Don’t forget hedgie margin calls go out 1-2pm…..

    Have fun :)

  63. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    Yeah…hear ya on the continued pain potential, but find it hard to believe that economic numbers are so good and quarterly results will be so bad. I really think this drop was nothing more than an interest rate induced head fake. Though, why HD? Housing looks like it peaked late last year. Spoke with my mortgage guy and he’s dead in the water. No will even refinance out in this environment. You’ve seen what the tea leaves in the housing stocks are saying, right? Though, generally, I do love HD and have held some most of my life.

  64. chicagofinance says:

    Lib….. comment on HD relative to your point…. not an investment thesis….

    people will stay in homes because they are dominated by the specter of losing interest rate on mortgage…. will reno with HD/LOW versus move….

  65. chicagofinance says:

    Lib – other point… broadly…. results are in there… depends on forecasts…

  66. leftwing says:

    TLDR on HD – fit a specific situation I was seeking, techs are good, vols allow me to structure a better than normal position through options and reduce cost.

    Otherwise stream of consciousness….

    I was looking for some very specific situations in my portfolio one being stocks that could bounce on the back of this decline. So a starting point was that I needed shares that had declined already. HD is off nicely, but not horribly.

    Love healthcare but they have barely moved down so not much oppty there. Techs have moved too much, may be broken. HD has moved the right amount, and as an added bonus despite the move its volatility is actually quite low, 20s, good for options.

    HD is a good play Aug-Dec generally. Some correlation with severity of hurricane season. Stock moved from 190s in Aug to 210s recently, and the market is kind enough to give me another look now at Aug prices. While a Cat 4 is banging the Gulf that everyone forgot about because of the market news.

    Key tech points
    Stock’s been bouncing off 200 SMA in a well defined three year trend. Testing that now at 191 or so. Over last three years twice its gone through only to return. Five times two different ST SMAs have crossed, stock recovered each time. That is occurring right now too. Each time, stock went down 8-10% over 30 or so days only to recover. Both those measures get me to 175-180.

    So, I ‘hedged’ long as above to not to miss the train if it takes off right away. I’ll back up the truck if she hits 170-175. If it levels out before then I’ll use options to create a synthetic long with a 170 or so entry point if there are further declines. And, as an added bonus, one part of my hedged ‘long’ position will have gains that help finance that and decrease cost.

    Not sure and didn’t need to be to invest but expect HD moves inversely with home purchase activity as owners do the move vs. improve analysis. Bonus tailwind if true.


  67. chicagofinance says:

    Honestly….. this is cool AND EVERYTHING….. the only thing I care about…. Trump can fcuk up everything else….

    It appears purely analytical, except one pretty nasty shot most of the way through….
    Yardeni is really respected, so it says quite a bit….
    “When Trump was elected, I observed that after eight years of government by community organizers, we were about to have a major regime change with government by dealmakers. ”

  68. chicagofinance says:

    Hate to channel Chicago geek…..”reduce cost” better stated as out of pocket cash outlay? I had to pound the table about 20 years ago to corporate drones who didn’t understand B-S…..

    leftwing says:
    October 11, 2018 at 2:09 pm
    TLDR on HD – fit a specific situation I was seeking, techs are good, vols allow me to structure a better than normal position through options and reduce cost.

  69. chicagofinance says:

    If AMZN gets near 200MA?

  70. leftwing says:

    Haha, I only play FANGS to hold less than a few days when markets are generally uneventful. Or on a very clearly defined overshoot. Very, as I’m generally relatively risk adverse. Right now I wouldn’t play anything that volatile with the market moving and the bank earnings tomorrow. Only looking at things I actually want to own.

    On HD yes BS. Short twice the number of calls I’m long at a higher strike. Shares move up, basically have a spread. Move down, the shorts gain value, I’ll either buy stock or write some OTM puts and still have the long leg of the calls.

    HD may be rolling, keep an eye out. Blue light special may be in the cards.

  71. D-FENS says:

    Huh….a pro Kavanaugh Republican son…

    Susan Rice’s Republican Son Assaulted During Pro-Kavanaugh Rally

  72. MAGA2020 says:

    Whatever you do, don’t refer to a group of angry, chanting attacking liberals as a mob. The TDS folks will lose their minds.

  73. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    ” depends on forecasts…” Of course! Which ties in to the Yardeni piece. Thanks for it. Excellent read.

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “It may be a reflection on human nature, that such devices should be necessary to control the abuses of government. But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary.” -Federalist essays no 51 -James Madison

    This is why I laugh when people think there is a difference between public and private sector. It’s all the same, guided by the same human nature. What’s the answer to corruption? No idea, but to think one or the other can be more or less corrupt is laughable.

    Our founding fathers tried to stop political parties from forming on the basis it would lead to division as opposed to unity…but good ol human nature won. The joke is on us.

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What I meant by saying “joke is on us.” We are our own worst nightmare. Who’s responsible for all these govt regulations…dirtbags who pulled shady moves in the business world. Govt didn’t just create this out of thin air.

    Ayn Rand and every other libertarian out there simply does not understand human nature. They blame govt as if a non human institution can act on its own. They then praise the private sector participants as some angelic type saviors. Did human nature somehow change under a private and public sector? The private sector participants have corrupted the entire system. These holy saviors have bought govt for themselves. Yet, you sit here and take the position that privatization will save us from corruption? My god the libertar!ans have lost their minds. Yes, let’s privatize everything, reduce govt power to nothing, and watch some perfection at play (dripping in sarcasm). Somehow, this model will overcome corruption…smh

  76. Juice Box says:

    Soyuz failure good for Space X? Should we expect a tweet from Musk about the Dragon Capsule being ready to go and the only thing holding it up is red tape?

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Mr. Trump noted in his op-ed that the plan would cost the fed­eral gov­ern­ment $32.6 tril­lion over 10 years. That fig­ure is from an analy­sis by the Mer­ca­tus Cen­ter’s Charles Bla­hous, a re­spected re­searcher and a for­mer So­cial Se­cu­rity and Medicare trustee who some­times writes for us. His find­ings are in the ball­park of every se­ri­ous analy­sis.

    That spend­ing fig­ure amounts to 10.7% of GDP in 2022 when the plan kicks in and then up from there. Na­tional de­fense—rou­tinely de­rided as too ex­pen­sive and waste­ful—is a mere 3% of GDP to­day. And brace your­self: “Dou-bling all cur­rently pro­jected fed­eral in­di­vid­ual and cor­po­rate in­come tax col­lec­tions would be in­suf­fi­cient to fi­nance the added fed­eral costs of the plan,” Mr. Bla­hous says.“

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