From Marketwatch:
Why 2019 won’t lead to a home buyer’s market
As 2018 winds to a close, the housing market has shown signs of a slowdown.
Throughout this year, observers have begun to speculate that the country’s housing market may have hit its peak. Meanwhile, millions of Americans continue to wait on the sidelines. Housing inventory remains incredibly tight, meaning that buying a home is a very expensive and difficult proposition for many. At the same time, expensive rents and low wages have constrained people’s ability to save up for a down payment.
And 2019 appears set to bring more of the same. “I would still rather be a seller than a buyer next year,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at real-estate website Realtor.com. Here is what forecasters predict the New Year will hold for America’s housing market:
As of Nov. 21, the interest rate on a 30-year mortgage was 4.81%, which is 89 basis points higher than a year ago. But by this time next year, experts predict it will be even higher.
Realtor.com estimated that the rate for a 30-year mortgage will reach 5.50% by the end of 2019, while real-estate firm Zillow estimated that it could hit 5.80% in a year’s time. Mortgage liquidity provider Fannie Mae was more moderate, predicting that rates will only increase to 5% by then.
Either way, homebuyers can expect to pay more in interest if they buy next year. And rising mortgage rates will cause ripple effects throughout the market, said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at real-estate data firm Attom Data Solutions.
“What’s driving the slowdown in price appreciation and the rise in inventory is not so much that inventory is being created, but that demand is decreasing,” he said. “This is an extremely mortgage-rate sensitive housing market.”
Honeywell International, Inc. confirmed Friday it is moving its corporate headquarters from Morris Plains to Charlotte, North Carolina, but that most jobs — at least for now — will remain in New Jersey.
The planned relocation comes just three years after the company received a $40 million tax credit to keep its headquarters in New Jersey, in a deal brokered and heralded by then-Gov. Chris Christie.
Morris Plans Mayor Frank Druetzler told NJ Advance Media the impending move, first reported on Thursday, caught him by surprise.
“This one came out of left field,” said Druetzler, who is ending his 32-year run as mayor at year’s end.
I can confirm a consensus among employers that New Jersey 1) cannot attract and retain skilled workers and 2) has a plentiful warehouse workforce.
It is not an exaggeration to state a majority of the state’s job growth will come from warehouse and logistics work.
Is Murphy available for comment?
NJ suburbs are dead.
Nj should concentrate on making north jersey into one hip urban mecca. Let the rest of the state become the warehouse. Follow this and you will have low housing options for warehouse workers in the other parts of the state, and also an expensive, but powerful job market in the north. Win/win.
Hoboken, JC, Hackensack, Paterson, Newark, Passaic etc….should all work together to form an urban area built on the economy of tomorrow. This is common sense.
Yo! says:
November 30, 2018 at 1:08 pm
I can confirm a consensus among employers that New Jersey 1) cannot attract and retain skilled workers and 2) has a plentiful warehouse workforce.
It is not an exaggeration to state a majority of the state’s job growth will come from warehouse and logistics work.
Is Murphy available for comment?
They have been dead for a long time. Btw, bergen county is not the suburbs. Neither is hudson, passaic, or union county.
3b says:
November 30, 2018 at 1:25 pm
NJ suburbs are dead.
Otto’s or anon’s true identity?
https://womenintheworld.com/2018/11/30/dominatrix-specializes-in-turning-white-right-wing-men-into-social1sts/
(must replace the final 1 with an “i” for the link to work)
But why whites only or men only? Is she racist? Does she discriminate by sex?
Or Essex
Here’s a video of Libturd and Expat waking up in a Costa Rican room
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iYvcuQSP-U
Experimental community of tomorrow?
Didn’t Disney already try that in Florida?
Bergen co and the others you mention are defined as suburbs of NYC. They are dead.
Better example….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuJnIJHgQ44
No One says:
November 30, 2018 at 1:35 pm
Here’s a video of Libturd and Expat waking up in a Costa Rican room
Monmouth county is a suburb. Bergen county is urban whether you realize it or not. Do you think the people of south or west jersey think suburban when they think of north jersey counties? Come on, you are crazy if you can’t see this. Do you really live in Bergen County? Look at that population density. Almost a million people…..how is this suburban?
Bergen County is the most populous county in New Jersey, with an estimated population of 948,406 in 2017,[7]
Definition of suburb….. it appears either definition applies…
sub·ur·ban
/səˈbərbən/Submit
adjective
of or characteristic of a suburb.
“suburban life”
synonyms: residential, commuter, dormitory
“a suburban area”
contemptibly dull and ordinary.
synonyms: dull, boring, uninteresting, conventional, ordinary, commonplace, unremarkable, unexceptional
I guess Staten Island is a suburb along with parts of brooklyn and queens. They need to update the definition of a suburb, because it clearly doesn’t make any sense today. Like how the hell is Montclair a suburb? How is Paramus a suburb?
This is like the people who classify Hollywood or Beverly Hills as a suburb……it’s total bs.
My favorite…..people who think Clifton is a suburb. Maybe 50 years ago.
Conventional wisdom on tariffs = poop?
Why Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Cost Consumers a Nickel
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/09/25/why_trumps_tariffs_wont_cost_consumers_a_nickel_138158.html
“Remember that NYC is the densest area in the country, so our “suburban” areas would be urban when compared to the rest of the country. If you’re moving from an apartment building in Brooklyn, this might seem suburban, but if you’re moving from an exurb in the Sunbelt, that might not be suburban.”
You don’t control the definition of suburb. Urban areas close to jobs and day care are the new reality. The house in the suburbs away from employment with a 1.5 to 2 hour commute each day consisting of dying malls and dumpy strip malls are dead.
You are insane, I’m convinced. It’s amazing no one puts you down for calling me an idiot.
3b says:
November 30, 2018 at 3:30 pm
You don’t control the definition of suburb. Urban areas close to jobs and day care are the new reality. The house in the suburbs away from employment with a 1.5 to 2 hour commute each day consisting of dying malls and dumpy strip malls are dead
Nothing insane in any of my comments no one wants far away money pits that sit empty all day while they work. Who wants to leave work at 5:00 or 6:00 and slog home for almost two hours pick up the kid do dinner go to bed and get up and do it again. It’s no surprise everyone here knows you are insane.
Umm….who commutes 2 hours in the counties I mentioned? And an hour commute is not that bad if that’s what some do.
Hunt is an idiot. Wow, and he beats up a white girl. If it was the other way around, the NCAAP would be all over it as a hate crime.
This is probably going to be the best fantasy football year of my life.
Lots of people have that kind of commute from the old days that are still working whose kids might be teens now or older. Difference being many of those Moms were stay at home as opposed to today. I have a good commute 40 minutes on the train but then path etc. on a good day it’s 1.25 minutes door to door. And that’s on a good day. And of course us old timers didn’t have those big student loans like so many couples have today which necessitates that both couples work. Plus people are delaying child birth today so you have many today 40 and over with babies or toddlers or young children. They don’t want to do those long ass commutes. The world has changed lil pumps many of us old timers recognize it. Pretty insane that a young buck like yourself is in denial. Keep waiting for Godot.
There has been a clear shift away from longer commutes. Not only close to mass transit but shorter rides on mass transit. Previously strong Bergen County towns have never recovered from the recession and are still down 20+ percent off peak or more. Agents from counties all across North Jersey tell me the market is weak across all price ranges except Hudson County and Edgewater and some South Bergen locations.
I have been licensed since 1981 and have listed and sold homes actively throughout the 10 Northern Counties of NJ. The change in where people want to buy in the past few years is dramatic. Value in location has changed
Thank you 30 Year . You back up my observations and conversations with hard facts from being in the business so many years and witnesssing first hand the changes. Prepare of course to be lectured on why you are wrong. After all what could you possibly know as opposed to the resident expert !!
Yes, maybe it’s dead. You know, the majority of the population can live 10 mins from their workplace location.
You know what the commute is like for any location in America in any city with jobs? I can only imagine how bad the commute has become in places like Nashville. Like I have said over and over, what’s the appeal of these other locations in comparison to north jersey if they have the same home prices now, trouble with rapid growth, and a hellish commute that only gets worse by the year as more people move in like lemmings.
When I see prices dropping in north jersey counties, I’ll consider it dead. I have not seen that at all. 30 year has his opinion, and I respect him, but I’m not writing off north jersey for dead because prices have not hit 2006 peak prices which were artificially raised to unheard levels. That barometer will be broken with time. Just give it some time to spillover. You are naive to think prices will continue to sky rocket in jc and Hoboken, but ignore locations 10 miles away. People will compare prices, and decide to act on it eventually.
Places like Morris County – a boomer enclave – is only going down in price, especially the more west you go
I’ve been living wrong…..
The money shot is second 0:27.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCyuobTLrdc
Mike,
If it goes past 287, it’s too far. It’s as simple as that.
That’s why I laughed when expat compared Roxbury to Wayne. That area is a hike out there.
It’s not north Jersey, it’s northeast nj to be specific in reference to it all being urbanized.
Like Roxbury is what I would call suburban. Paramus….hell no.
There you go 30 year your experience and analysis has just been reduced to a mere opinion. Pumps knows best!! He is insane.
Posted this yesterday, maybe read it again, it’s a valuable piece of information. Millennials are following the exact same pattern. See 3b, the changes 30 year has been experiencing has come from the huge millennial demographic buying bloc impacting the market. That’s why he has never experienced this before in his career. The millennials created huge demand for rentals and urban living during their 20’s and they will shift the market again as they form families.
Read this passage, and read it long and hard. The exact thing the boomers did is already coming up in the stats with the millennials. Are you going to tell me this time is different?
“Permits for multi-unit residences surged first, beginning in 1965, as the oldest Boomers entered their 20s, while single family permits, relatively speaking, began to surge in the early 1970s, and reached their peak in the early 1980s. This is exactly what we would expect to see as the young demographic moves from apartments and condominiums into single family homes. By 1986, there gradually became more Boomers exiting the prime first time home-buying age demographic than there were younger persons entering that demographic.
Note that we’ve seen an echo of this pattern with the entry of Millennials into adulthood. During the housing bust, single family permits fared much worse than multi-unit permits, and multi-unit permits initially surged more than single family permits — but since 2010, both have surged more than at any time since 1985.
The peak in Millennial births was in 1990, after which live births leveled off. If a similar historical pattern is followed, the strong demographic tailwind in the housing market should continue through 2020, and thereafter, while not turning into a headwind, gradually subside through roughly 2025.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-turn-30-housing-boom-demographics-2018-4
This is how 1987 condo got caught holding the bag. Demographics got him. There was not a big enough group coming in to buy the supply from created from the boomers. The exact same thing has been happening with single family homes over the past 10 years. Boomers built up huge supply and not enough to absorb it, so prices dropped or stagnated. We are almost out of that stage. In the beginning of 2020, going to be a huge buying bloc for sfh’s coming down the pipeline.
“This is exactly what we would expect to see as the young demographic moves from apartments and condominiums into single family homes. By 1986, there gradually became more Boomers exiting the prime first time home-buying age demographic than there were younger persons entering that demographic.”
3b,
Just wondering, why didn’t you raise your 3 kids in the city with no car?
And now you expect millennials to want to raise their kids in the city? No one wants to raise their family in the city unless you are shi!!ing money. Without hired help, it’s a nightmare to raise a family in the city. That has not changed my friend.
Singles really don’t go food shopping or have to worry about any 4 year old when they are walking through the city. That 4 year old makes it very very challenging to live in the city.
Pumps when I left the city it was falling apart and we all left. That was then this is now. I am not expecting millennials to stay in the city silly boy it’s their choice. And if I were a millennial today with two kids and both spouse’s working and student loans in a vastly different better city I would make the same decision.
Except they won’t be moving into SFH s as I noted and 30 year backed up with his analysis.
So you read an article and determine that 30 year is wrong because you and the article say so. You know better than a man who has been in the market for almost 40 years!!! Stunning!!
You obviously didn’t read long and hard like I asked you to.
Simple breakdown- The same trends created from the giant boomers demographic bloc is happening again with the equally as large millennial demographic bloc. The exact same thing…they drove up massive demand for rentals and condos. Now you are telling me that the millennials won’t continue like the boomers to single family homes? This time is different right?
What do these trends have to do with 30 year’s experience in the market? Did he experience this already…if so, how? Since these huge demographic blocs only come so often.
Yes, as I expected. The lemmings says let’s all move to Nashville!
“If you’re sitting in traffic for an hour, hour and a half, to two hours, and you’re only going 22 miles, you know, you’re in the worst mood by the time you get to work, and when you’re in a bad mood when you get to work, everybody else around you is in a bad mood and they know you sat in traffic for a long time,” Debbie Hall said.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjdgcbnyv3eAhWMZd8KHSMOADYQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wkrn.com%2Fnews%2Flocal-news%2Fsurviving-i-24-commuters-say-driving-into-nashville-is-a-losing-battle_20180319074247841%2F1057414274&psig=AOvVaw3mD-28VgPoFkOCNCDFg13z&ust=1543717727571976
You pumps obviously discounted what I said which in turn was backed up by a long time real estate professional. Large millennial demographic does not translate into them buying SFH s in Wayne or any other far flung suburb. Furthermore these millennial that you salivate over are not having as many kids as in one or two. They simply don’t need or want some big ass house on a 1/4 or 1/2 acre.
I have one kid and still have the home with 3/4 quarters of an acre in Wayne. Nah, other millennials are not going to want what I want. I’m just an anomaly.
Oh you cerataiy are an anomaly!
Any questions?
“The Best-Run U.S. Companies of 2018—and How They Got That Way
Apple leads the pack, followed by fellow tech giants Amazon and Microsoft, in the Drucker Institute’s second annual Management Top 250 ranking”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-run-u-s-companies-of-2018and-how-they-got-that-way-1543584095?emailToken=323f550d62837bed2aa74c1ffc8e356bGFqcgJm0NI5jtqH2zitS7lyX3FjWZBUoGdJoapBHc/bKme/fECMer8ZXumn3DfCED5WSh2D4PNabpKKcDqxewkZxdF03d8L3RsGC4ehnW+tqTNCkFgqzpYeBlySr9N61&reflink=article_copyURL_share
But let’s bash apple like it’s going to go down. Company is stronger than ever.
Huge part of the population loves to doubt certain tech stocks. They did it to amazon for years. Till amazon ran them over.
I was def early to the game, but others are catching up. Don’t forget, a lot of these millennials are getting boomer mommy and daddy money as their parents down size and they give their kids the money to afford a suburban sfh to start a family.
3b says:
November 30, 2018 at 10:59 pm
Oh you cerataiy are an anomaly!
So don’t give me this bs, that millennials can’t afford it. A lot of them have rich boomer parents.
Pumps you are lashing out and grasping at straws now. It’s very unbecoming as well as childish.
The Trump administration wants to reform a popular American work visa program.
The Department of Homeland Security released a proposal Friday that would increase the number of H-1B visa recipients who have master’s degrees or higher level degrees and would move the registration process online.
The government has been working to crack down on the H-1B program — a result of President Donald Trump’s direction that agencies implement a “Buy American, Hire American” strategy.
https://apple.news/AbThRe4QJTVu_eULfw7Fqgw
“If you’ve gotten a sense that Millennials, folks born between 1980 – 2000, seem to be a little clueless or delusional about money, you might be right!
It’s common practice for every generation to hate on the next younger generation. You should see the attitudes my fellow 65+ year old condo owners have towards the sub 35-year-old owners during our annual HOA meetings. It’s as if the younger owners don’t deserve to have the same rights as the older owners, even though the younger owners paid way more for their properties.
Given that roughly half of Financial Samurai’s readership is between the ages of 18 – 35, the proposition that Millennials don’t care about money doesn’t seem to mesh with reality. Most of you guys care a great deal, which is why you’re here. But let’s unearth the real reason why those other Millennials just don’t seem to give a damn about money, shall we?
WHY MILLENNIALS DON’T CARE ABOUT MONEY”
“Perhaps these Millennials aren’t delusional. I used to think hard work was the main ingredient for financial success. Now I believe hard work plus rich parents equals success!
Given the parents of Millennials have invested in the biggest bull market in history, it’s logical to conclude that Baby Boomer parents have a ton to give. $30 trillion in generational wealth transfer is estimated to pass from Baby Boomers to their Millennial children over the next several decades. That buys a lot of entitlement.
I’ve seen plenty of parents either bequeath their own properties to their adult kids or pay the downpayment on a new property for their adult children. Seven of my neighbors in Golden Gate Heights, San Francisco didn’t pay for their house thanks to their parents. I am the only donkey who decided to work 70+ hours a week while saving 50%+ of my after-tax income to buy my own place. I should have just asked my parents for the downpayment.
Let’s be honest. If you expected over a $1 million inheritance, would you bother to try so hard? I doubt it. It’s partly because I knew my parents weren’t rich that I’ve been so determined to make ends meet on my own.”
https://www.financialsamurai.com/no-wonder-why-millennials-dont-give-a-damn-about-money/
According to an Institute for Social Research Transition into Adulthood study whose results were analyzed by assistant professor Patrick Wightman and written about in The New York Times, about 40 percent of 22-, 23- and 24-year-olds get significant assistance from their parents, much of which goes towards housing and start-up capital.
The average amount they receive per year comes to $3,000.
The rising cost of living over the past couple of decades, coupled with the fact that salaries haven’t kept pace, has made it harder for all young workers to become independent, according to the Times: “In the 1980s, Mr. Wightman found, fewer than half of this age group received any parental support. But by 2010 nearly 70 percent of them did.”
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjL2728zv7eAhWGVN8KHXcNBJIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2017%2F02%2F10%2Fyoung-millennials-get-thousands-in-secret-support-from-their-parents.html&psig=AOvVaw0I2cLzxEJIWd08PNmEkOBG&ust=1543753070735619
Will Millennials Be Ready for the Great Wealth Transfer?
They’re set to inherit record wealth, with opportunities and challenges for them and financial advisors.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/2017-07-18/will-millennials-be-ready-for-the-great-wealth-transfer
And remember home ownership percentages. You have 35-40% of the population will never be renters for life. Majority of this population will be your poor families. So take that into perspective and understand that the top 30% of the population will surely be getting some kind of assistance from their parents because this is the wealthier segment of our population. That means at least half of the homeowners out there will be in the segment that is able to provide some sort of assistance when it comes to home buying. So we should be careful to judge a Millennial’s ability to purchase a home using only income statistics.
*you have 35-40% of the population that will be renters for life.
Dude for everyone’s sake especially those closest to you, take your meds.
Murphy conducts a sham investigation into his sheltering of an alleged rapist and of course finds no wrongdoing. No coverage whatsoever from fake news star ledger. But they found the time to put together a series on police abuse. No wonder the media is becoming known as the enemy of the people.
GdBls45,
You have not found that donut shop yet? I heard there is a good one in MLK Blvd in Newark, but you got to go after 10pm.
As you look for it, I’ll give you 3 historical drives to enjoy your donuts and imitate a cop. I bet you you love Michael Douglas ” Falling Down”, you probably are the gun nut weirdo in Army Surplus store.
1-Along Paterson Plank Rd and West Side Avenue in North Bergen. North Bergen Cops used to mug and beat up patrons of the old Navel Base strip club. (Stopped by undercover troopers)
2-Next to the GWB, the old seedy motel, about to be demolished, was in the Sopranos, 2 Fort Lee cop kidnapped and killed a businessman (Caught by FBI)
3-Palisades Park. 5 cops including a lt/sgt were casing and robbing houses of asians/hispanics only.(Public corruption task force)
And I have not even gotten to the biggest police corruption scandals of the 90’s -21 cops, or gotten that far out of the Hudson River.
Fun day and more joy of home ownership. I rented a drain camera and digital pipe locator from Home Depot and finally found the blockage in my corrugated drain out back under my brick patio and yard. All my gutter downspouts are tied into black corrugated pipe that is buried in my yard, my basement sump pump is tied into it and it all drains to the street and it was all backing up. My sump blew and flood my basement two weeks ago do to the pump being on way too much. I found roots clogging the black corrugated pipe about fifty feet down the line next to my retaining wall. I took down a nearby tree this summer as it was dead. Seems it’s roots were alive and well.
Anyway dug down 3 feet and created a good size hole you you swim in and cut out the blocked pipe, but alas it was getting dark so tomorrow I will patch the pipe and fill the hole.
For the hole digging I was tempted to rent a Home depot mini-excavator ….but I have no trailer hitch… perhaps on my next truck I will be sure to get a hitch…
Joys of home ownership means not paying some plumber $400 to run a drain camera and another $2,000 to dig a hole to patch a pipe.. all in so far was $135 for the camera and less than $10 for the pipe and some sweat equity, but I did stop for coffee too.
Next up will be the rental of a hydro jetter. Apparently they do not destroy cheap thin black corrugated pipe like a drain snake. I am going to clean all drains, apparently every 5 years is recommended..
Why don’t homes come with manuals…..
Reminds me a time about 25 years ago, after 2 years of living in our custom built house (we were the GCs) I decided on my own to hook up all the downspouts and lead them underground to the street. Since our house is about 200 feet from the street, I used about a 1000 feet of the black pipe. Rented a ditchwitch in the morning and proceeded to hook up all downspouts front and rear of the house. Used two main lines to street. Since the house is about 9 feet higher in elevation than the street, it was straightforward (well, mostly). Only regret is that I went under the driveway, which was not paved at the time. Once paved, cracks appeared in the asphalt due to never ending settling of the quarry blend underneath. I used SCH40 pipes in some locations.
Either way, my house also was specd to have interior and exterior foundation perimeter pipes, crossing and connecting UNDER the footing. These pipes led to a low spot in the front yard that bleeds excess groundwater over the next door neighbors lawn and driveway. heehee
Have never installed a sump pump, even filled the pit over when I finished the basement many years ago. Basement, cross my fingers, has always been high and dry. Never a spot of water.
It’s amazing what a late 30s guy can do if he’s healthy. I finished the entire project in one spring day, even covered the trenches with a shovel, spade and rake.
Juice for you:
https://youtu.be/5Htf_F6Nmtg?t=1655
I would be happy to know and receive a monthly price for five products For a banner.
The products I want to advertise :
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Waiting to hear from you Alice .
Hey, nj fake news took time from cop bashing and reporting twitter reactions as news to cover the Murphy admins rape cover up attempt. This POS is finished as a politician. He knew.
Great boxing match last night with Fury vs Wilder. I said to myself….I’m finally back into the heavyweight division. Then the judges show their corruption and ruin the ending.
Back to Jerzy style Real Estate, in this brief pause of PumkinVomit
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/2018/12/01/edgewater-nj-officials-have-close-ties-developer-court-documents/2160954002/
Sounds like this guy:
https://youtu.be/KU_Hs0ogXqs
LoveCorruption IntheMorning says:
December 2, 2018 at 9:46 am
Back to Jerzy style Real Estate, in this brief pause of PumkinVomit
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/2018/12/01/edgewater-nj-officials-have-close-ties-developer-court-documents/2160954002/
This statement:
“Since 2016 he’s rented a 1,540 square-foot duplex with two bedrooms. But McPartland’s rent, according to rent rolls, is nearly $1,000 less than what other tenants pay for identical units.”
And this statement:
“When reached for comment, McPartland insisted that his rent is market value.”
Are obviously contradictory and easily verifiable… so I won’t hold my breath that any investigotory body actually looks into criminal wrongdoing.
Lastly, the borough has issued countless variances to allow population to surge in the last 15 years (which is more than fine, I’m 110% in favor of reducing zoning regulations assuming the municipal/county infrastructure can support it and resources are in place for long term maintenance (which is where short term politicians always f it up))…
But now have an issue with a new plan of about 1,800 units while simultaneously supporting a separate plan of 2,000 units… how are they saying this with a straight face?
Lock everyone one of them up. Govt and this contractor. Not surprised he created his own bank and lends more than even the crazy low capital requirements allow for.
Frist
How was CR?
Of course nj fake news already buried the story about murphy harboring an alleged rapist who is also a big nj dnc insider but left up the cop bashing stuff and a puff piece about murphy being named head of the dnc governors association. Tells you what fake news and the dnc really think about believing rape accusers.