Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside

From Forbes:

People First, Jobs Follow: Cause And Effect In Real Estate And Its Impact On Affordability

Earlier this year, the U.S. Census Bureau shared its latest data concerning suburban population demographics from 2016 to 2017, revealing a trend that many had long suspected: As more big cities become less affordable, people are moving back to the suburbs.

After several years of urban growth, America is once again seeing an urban flight to the suburbs. In 2017, New York City saw 143,000 people move out, making it the first time since 2007 that the city did not lead the country in population growth. For the New York metropolitan area, the suburban population growth of 2016-2017 exceeded the city population growth — as was the case in 36 of the 53 largest metropolitan areas in America.

This move away from major, dense urban environments is largely a result of the urbanization in the first half of the decade. From 2010 to 2014, cities saw the fastest growth they had seen in decades. In the span of four years, nine of America’s 25 largest cities saw growth rates of at least 1%, a significant increase from the average rate of 0.49% the decade before. Headlines such as “Decade of the City” and “Cities Thrive, Suburbs Sputter” were common in the media in 2013, and many were quick to show that city life was in the midst of a hot renaissance.

Five years later, much of that enthusiasm has been tempered. The May 2018 data suggests that the growth in cities was only a blip on a broader trend towards suburbanization. Extreme productivity in places like New York City and San Francisco led to skyrocketing housing prices and wage gaps. Cities have had a hard time keeping up with the demand for housing and keeping it affordable for residents. In May 2012, the average home price in Brooklyn, New York was $480,000. In May 2018, it was $786,000.

As affordable housing in cities became scarce, middle-income earners found solace in the housing options offered in suburban America, and the jobs seem to be following.

Since 2010, Bayonne, New Jersey, a city just across the Hudson River from Manhattan, experienced a population growth of 6.4%, while more than 6,000 apartments have either opened or are under construction. According to a New York Times article, “as apartments rise in Bayonne, new businesses are appearing on Broadway, a three-and-a-half-mile commercial strip lined with vintage bakeries, cigar shops and newsstands that often appear unchanged from the 1950s.” In addition, Costco and Starbucks are opening their first stores in Bayonne, and a ferry that will bring residents to Manhattan is set to open in January.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

48 Responses to Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside

  1. grim says:

    Dah-ling I love you, but give me Park Avenue

  2. Yo! says:

    If Bayonne is gentrifying, does that mean the trend that started in Hoboken, spread through downtown Jersey City and Journal Square, is skipping Bergen-Lafayette and Greenville, neighborhoods where majority of Hudson County’s shootings and murders occur?

  3. grim says:

    “Die yuppie scum!”

  4. D-FENS says:

    oof…they promised him he could keep his job as chief of staff until he found another one. How considerate of Murphy…

    Two senior state officials have testified under oath that they told Albert J. Alvarez last year he needed to vacate his high-ranking job in Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration after a colleague accused him of raping her. Alvarez, however, didn’t leave his until a reporter started asking questions months later.

    But in an unemployment application filed last month, Alvarez tells a vastly different story. He contends Murphy officials agreed to help him find a job and allowed him to stay on as chief of staff at the New Jersey Schools Development Authority until he landed new employment.

    That could be a major topic Thursday as a special committee of state lawmakers holds its fourth hearing into how Murphy’s team handled Katie Brennan’s allegations that Alvarez raped her after a Murphy campaign event in 2017.

    Murphy’s chief of staff, Pete Cammarano, will testify for a second time. And state Senate Majority Loretta Weinberg, the panel’s co-chair, said she’s anxious to ask Cammarano about Alvarez’s version of events.

  5. D-FENS says:

    Bridge-gate was front page news every day for years. This is worse right?

  6. GdBlsU45 says:

    Lol. Nj fake news. Their reporters are dumb and dumber when it comes to Murphy’s malfeasance and when it comes to trashing trumps tax plan they are suddenly tax experts. I also don’t see them questioning the account of Alvarez hiring. The person In charge of the transition hiring says he doesn’t know who placed Alvarez in his job. Magic I guess.

  7. 3b says:

    So they are moving from the big urban areas to the smaller urban areas that are close to the big urban areas. Not really the suburbs as most would define suburbs.

  8. GdBlsU45 says:

    DFENS hard to gauge the severity of the scandal at the moment. The news is still buying the line that Murphy was unaware of the allegations so the establishment hasn’t turned on him yet. But the beauty of the current Democratic Party and it’s construction of identity politics is that it will constantly turn on itself. He will clearly be weakened.

  9. GdBlsU45 says:

    And after Katie emailed phil and he told her he was “on it”, there was a call placed to both karie and the Hudson county prosecutor. Who was pulling those strings? Who mage the call? More magic if you believe the testimonies.

  10. Libturd...look me up in Costa Rica says:

    “Five years later, much of that enthusiasm has been tempered. The May 2018 data suggests that the growth in cities was only a blip on a broader trend towards suburbanization. ”

    I argued this all along. Return to the cities. Feh!

  11. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    To this day, it appears Bridgegate was not CC’s doing nor was he aware of it until it surfaced in the press. I do hold him responsible for not immediately firing those involved though. In Murphy’s case, there’s definitely a coverup here. From the dropping of the charges, to letting the a-hole stay in his position after being kindly asked to step down. There are just too many moving parts here for Murphy to not have known. If he knew about the coverup, he should immediatelly step down. But this is NJ. Where a married Senator can fly solo to the Dominican Repubublic 50 times on a major campaign contributor’s jet, provide multiple green cards for his many girlfriends, be brought up on ethics charges time and time again and get relected in a virtual landslide. I used to think the Republicans were morally inferior. Now, all I keep reading is Dem after Dem after Dem taking the low road. It appears 2 wrongs make a right is the new strategy of the DNC.

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Isn’t this exactly what I have stated to you over and over? Spillover dude! It’s inevitable. I was right on Paramus and Fairfield. That’s 2 out of 3, and I will be right on my final one with Wayne. All three of these towns were a stupid good value 3 years ago. Paramus is now too late. Fairfield still a chance here and there. Wayne is the last good value that is left inside the 287 corridor. You can still get 400,000-500,000 homes which is a gift from god based on the location and all it offers. Try finding a better school system in commuting distance to nyc with those real estate prices….get it while you can.

    Add another call that has been correct by the pumpkin. You kept telling me city..blah blah blah…..and I tried to explain to you that north jersey areas are not dead. Now you believe me?

    “Earlier this year, the U.S. Census Bureau shared its latest data concerning suburban population demographics from 2016 to 2017, revealing a trend that many had long suspected: As more big cities become less affordable, people are moving back to the suburbs.”

  13. 30 year realtor says:

    In reply to Joyce’s question, what is title raiding? When buying a tax lien at auction with the intent of ending up with the real estate there is a special recipe for the type of circumstances that can lead to success. Included in this recipe is usually the lack of a mortgage on the property. The lien purchased cannot be foreclosed for 2 years. Due to the lengthy process a title raider can come along and find the owner or heir and screw up your plot to own the real estate.

  14. Not30yrs says:

    The process described above by 30yrs is how Jersey City gentrified exponentially during the Schundler years.

    Under McCann, it was well known you did not have to be up to date with your property taxes if you were a voting, live-in property owner.

    When Schundler came in, he tally up all the arrear taxes and sold liens. Many of the residents could not afford or keep up with the lien’s interest rate and lost their property in foreclosures.

  15. chicagofinance says:

    Heard part of Trump’s impromptu press conference this morning…… a reporter asked him to comment on Jeff Bezos divorce…. we are skipping along the bottom….

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:


    From the lead article, tell me why Wayne doesn’t fit this? You always put Wayne down along with the rest of north jersey, but do they not offer this? So why would they die?

    “When looking to invest or acquire a new property, it’s wise to look at several key factors to assess the overall quality of the submarket. Characteristics such as a diversified local economy, population and income growth, proximity to employment centers, access to mass transit and highway systems and lifestyle amenities such as retail, entertainment and recreation are all among the most important factors to consider before investing.”

  17. Juice Box says:

    Chi – saw that he wished Bezos luck…said it was going to be a beauty (of a divorce).


  18. Bystander says:

    Orange buffoon is well versed in cheating and divorce. Finally topic where he is actually an expert.

  19. D-FENS says:

    you guys were talking about climate change the other day (Sunday??)… Thought I would add this to the discussion:

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Perfect article for what I speak about on this blog. Now I’m not the idiot, huh? Keep telling me a recession is coming based on how long a bull run has been in effect. Also, the article plays into what I have said about recessions being self induced by the big boys who get scared and act on it. They should instead focus on the fundamentals that matter instead of worrying about every little thing.

    This article comes out now, but how long have I been saying this? I’m way ahead of the other players in the game.

    “Do Economic Booms Die of Old Age?
    Recessions aren’t inevitable, and economists don’t agree on what causes them.”

    Ben Bernanke got a big laugh from economists in Atlanta on Jan. 4. A few minutes after Janet Yellen said, “I don’t think expansions just die of old age,” he replied, “I like to say they get murdered.”

    All right, not that funny. But the nerdy repartee between the past two Federal Reserve chairs at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association reveals how central bankers think about recessions—and says something about how likely it is that the U.S. will tip into one over the next year.

    The open secret of the economics profession is that its practitioners don’t have a theory for why expansions die. Or rather they have several theories, each of which contradicts the others and none of which is fully supported by the data. Because economists don’t know why recessions start, they can’t predict when one will start.

    The likelihood is that the U.S. economic expansion that began in June 2009 will reach its 10th birthday this summer and roll right on, becoming the longest U.S. period of uninterrupted growth since at least 1854. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see only a 20 percent probability of recession over the coming 12 months. Their median projection for gross domestic product growth is 2.6 percent in 2019, slowing to 1.9 percent in 2020. Nothing on the horizon shouts “recession.””

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why can’t people act calm and collective instead of letting fictitious gloom take them over and take down the economy. So much of it is based on the market psychology of the big boys who can move markets with their moves.

    Sit back and relax, and let the roaring 20’s 2.o come. Can’t stand these people begging for a recession out of fear and gloom.

    “Then again, without a good theory of the business cycle, no one really knows. What we do know is that economic growth is fueled by the confidence of consumers, businesses, and investors. Lately, that confidence has been sagging. A spike in fear that the expansion will die—either of old age or from murder most foul—could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. “Things can turn quickly because so much of this is animal spirits,” Kristin Forbes, an economist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management, said at the economics conference in Atlanta.”

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This article must have been written for me. Have I not been saying this over and over on this blog? Lefty, still have the nerve to say I don’t contribute to this blog? Read this, dude!

    “It seems like a strange time for anyone to worry about a recession. On Jan. 4 the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 312,000 jobs in December, half again as much as the monthly average over the past five years. Ordinarily such a burst of hiring would drive down the unemployment rate, which has stayed below 4 percent for the longest period since the Soaring Sixties. The only reason it actually rose a bit—two ticks, to 3.9 percent—is that the hot pace of hiring drew more people into the labor force. That’s exactly what you want to see: discouraged workers, premature retirees, and people out on disability all giving the job market another try. “This is a much better, more optimistic picture right now,” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

    It’s not just the job market that’s booming. GDP grew at a 4.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2018 and 3.4 percent in the third, and it’s estimated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg to have grown 2.6 percent in the just-ended fourth quarter. Those are good numbers when you consider that based on population and productivity trends, the Fed estimates that the U.S. economy’s long-run growth potential is only around 1.9 percent a year.

    Despite that, investors don’t share Kudlow’s confidence. That’s seen most clearly in the stock market, where the S&P 500 is down 11 percent over the past three months. Inflation expectations have fallen, a sign of lack of confidence in economic growth. The Business Roundtable’s index of the economic outlook of big-company chief executives, while still above its long-run average, has fallen for three straight quarters.

    Consumers are the one group that remains solidly confident, maybe because the share of Americans surveyed by the Conference Board who say jobs are hard to get is the lowest in 18 years. Holiday spending was strong. But even consumers have their limits. Auto sales have been flat since 2015. REV Group Inc. of Milwaukee, which makes recreational vehicles, saw its stock plunge 77 percent in 2018, in part because of a drop in sales, especially of its most expensive RVs. It’s worth bearing in mind that a lot of consumers are investors, too, so their stock portfolios matter to them along with their salaries.

    One reason for the jitters is that a lot of people don’t agree with Yellen. They think recessions do die of old age. They think good times lead inevitably to excess: Companies overproduce, consumers overspend, and balance has to be restored. In the debt cycle theory of the late American economist Hyman Minsky, a theorist of financial fragility, easy lending leads to foolish investments, which lead to defaults and a sharp drop in lending that kills growth.”

  23. D-FENS says:

    You definitely make it worse.

  24. Not Bloomberg News says:

    Amazing this sentence made it into “print” ..

    “They think recessions do die of old age.”

    Freudian slip?

  25. GdBlsU45 says:

    I think we can assume Bezos is a chest guy based upon the company he keeps and the work that’s been done.

  26. Comrade Nom Deplume, Older than Four says:

    “GdBlsU45 says:
    January 10, 2019 at 8:53 am

    “when it comes to trashing trumps tax plan they are suddenly tax experts.”

    I’ve given up on them. It’s like arguing with 4 year olds

  27. 3b says:

    Pumps I should not respond but I will simply say this. You missed my point on the my post. No surprise of course. I said they are moving to urban areas that are close to the big urban areas. If they wanted they could go straight to your beloved Wayne. But they are not as they don’t appear to be interested in the suburbs of old like Wayne and others.

  28. ExEssex says:

    Pluses and minuses folks. City life is rich in culture. But country kids get the best drugs.

  29. GdBlsU45 says:

    Still nobody knows nothing. Neither the transition lead or the chief of staff knows how Alvarez was hired. The “Murphy administration “ appointed Alvarez magically and no one has individual knowledge of how it occurred.

  30. Fast Eddie says:

    Headlines such as “Decade of the City” and “Cities Thrive, Suburbs Sputter” were common in the media in 2013, and many were quick to show that city life was in the midst of a hot renaissance.

    Five years later, much of that enthusiasm has been tempered. The May 2018 data suggests that the growth in cities was only a blip on a broader trend towards suburbanization.

    It was a ruse and a scam to jack up prices in “coveted” places like Hoboken, JC and parts of Brooklyn. It was never a trend. It was all designed to get your money. I can sell my house for a nice chunk more than what I bought it for a little over three years ago.

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    740K for 2/1 apt. in Hoboken. You gotta be a mental retard to buy at this price. They wanted close to 800K originally. What a f.ucking swindle.,-74.026941,40.741348,-74.041554_rect/15_zm/0_mmm/

  32. D-FENS says:

    1950’s Western Features a Con Man Named Trump Promising To Save The World & Build a Wall

  33. 3b says:

    Fast I agree in that the prices are insane but I don’t agree that it is all going to shift back to the traditional home in the suburbs with Mom at home and Dad off to work on the train or bus. That’s the way it was when my guys were little and it’s not that long ago. Speaking of trains and train towns my train for the past 2 days was short 2 cars and late again!! 40 minute commute to Hoboken my arse!!3

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why? Why is the current generation so different? They are not.

    Kids are at school all day anyway. Why does the mother have to stay home when she can make more money with her time. That’s the only difference between your generation and today. Women want to work and have careers for themselves. With duel career incomes, this area is not so expensive if you both are professionals. If you don’t have a professional career job in this area, then yes it’s an expensive area to live and why wouldn’t it be? It’s likd trying to live in any other desirable area, the professional class raises the prices on the Walmart worker, forcing them to move to a cheaper location.

    3b says:
    January 10, 2019 at 4:10 pm
    Fast I agree in that the prices are insane but I don’t agree that it is all going to shift back to the traditional home in the suburbs with Mom at home and Dad off to work on the train or bus.

  35. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Starbucks in Seattle to install safe needle disposal boxes after employees sign petition

    $15 an hour minimum wage and a skyrocketing homelessness population? Do they count towards the unemployment rate? Leaving your needles at Starbucks? They give a whole new meaning to Espresso Shot.

  36. 3b says:

    Pumps you are insufferable. Back to ignoring you.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t agree, but we will see.


  38. Juice Box says:

    wasn’t a bunch of sycophants calling for a crash right after the election?

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Vegans kill more animals

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lmao…I swear, every year since 2012, there have been calls for the “next big crash” for whatever reason

    Juice Box says:
    January 10, 2019 at 7:03 pm
    wasn’t a bunch of sycophants calling for a crash right after the election?

  41. leftwing says:

    Fast, don’t disagree with any of your points. Question though isn’t what the appreciation in houses was over the past three years, but for many people the relevant question is what is going to occur over the next three to five.

    We keep coming back to the same issue. The government funded real estate asset bubble and response continues to cast a long shadow. Real estate, most households’ main reservoir of wealth, should not have a price chart that looks like a small cap internet stock.

    More than any generational trend the main determinant of movement and prices rests with three dudes and two women in DC.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    One of the factors in the 2008 collapse that isn’t talked about as much is the oversupply of housing. Going into the 21st century, regional home builders consolidated to form large national companies, and they were churning out houses in volumes that dwarf the pace of building today.

    Real estate speculators often purchased this oversupply, and when the crisis hit, they just let those houses go into default because they hadn’t put any money down on it anyway. This led to massive housing supply for sale during the collapse, which pushed prices into free fall. But today, housing supply today is incredibly tight.

    “A correction can only go so far because of [the housing supply] dynamic,” said Eric Abramovich, co-founder of home-flipping lender Roc Capital. “I think there’s a floor [today], as opposed to 2008 when there was no floor.”

  43. 3b says:

    B and W in Hackensack one of the best bakeries in north Jersey.

  44. Juice Box says:

    I used to drop off my Hoboken rent at Buddy’s bakery. I rented from the mother in law on Bloomfield St, a very nice but tough old Italian lady.She got the big C and it was all downhill from there. She never said a word about the dates I had in the apartment above her, but she managed to give me a few eyes as we met in the hallway (like when are you going to settle down). Over my time in Hoboken I used to laugh walking by the bakery as the lines were crazy long to get in.

    Boring now I know but the noise I would hear about the cake boss in my travels outside NJ when they were hot was really unreal, they were close to Rock Star famous.

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