Brains win.

From Citylab:

The Geography of Brain Drain in America

Perhaps the biggest problem afflicting America is its widening geographic divide between the winners and losers of the knowledge economy. A raft of studies has documented the growing divergence between places based on their ability to attract, retain, and cluster highly educated and skilled workers and to develop high-tech startup companies.

Talented and skilled Americans are the most likely to move by far. While the overall rate of mobility among Americans has declined over the past decade or so, still, between one-quarter and one-third of U.S. adults have moved within the previous five years, a higher rate of mobility than just about any other country on the globe. But behind this lies a tale of two migrations: the skilled and educated “mobile” on the one hand and the less educated “stuck” on the other.

One consequence of this is that states as different as Ohio and Hawaiihave been considering initiatives to stem brain drain and hold onto their own talent. In fact, such policies date back at least to the late 1990s. Back in 1999, when I lived in Pittsburgh, economic-development officials there came up with the idea of “Border Guard Bob,” a uniformed sentinel who would patrol the region’s borders to convince talented local grads to stay—an initiative that quickly became the butt of jokes and was scuttled.

Now, a new report from the Social Capital Project of the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress takes a close look at the reality of brain drain across the 50 states. The report uses U.S. Census data from 1940 to 2017, and focuses on highly educated people in their post-college and post-graduate-school years—people between the ages of 31 and 40 who are either “movers” or “leavers,” heading off to different states, or “stayers” who continue to live in their home state.

The fourth map (above) shows the change in net brain drain since 1970. Among the states that experienced big increases in net brain drain were some in the Midwest and Plains (Iowa and the Dakotas), and particularly a swath of the Southern Sunbelt. Better performers, or states that decreased net brain drain, included New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Washington, and Massachusetts. Ohio and Michigan did well on this measure, meaning they improved from being the states with the highest net brain drain back in 1970.

Bringing it all together, the best performers over the past three-quarters of a century are the states along the Boston–New York–D.C. corridor; on the West Coast; and Illinois, Texas, Colorado, Arizona, and Hawaii. States fared the worst, experiencing more brain drain, in parts of the Midwest, the Great Plains, New England, the Southeast, and especially the Deep South.

The geographic winners have only seen their advantages grow since 1970. This split geography of brain gain and brain drain poses huge implications not only for our economy, but also for American society and politics. “Brain drain has significant consequences—economic, yes, but also political and cultural,” the report notes. “By increasing social segregation, it limits opportunities for disparate groups to connect. And by siphoning a source of economic innovation from emptying communities, brain drain can also lead to crumbling institutions of civil society. As those natives who have more resources leave, those left behind may struggle to support churches, police athletic leagues, parent-teacher associations, and local businesses.”

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45 Responses to Brains win.

  1. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How long has this blog been saying this? 3b, will you open up your eyes and realize this? Anyone leaving north jersey either don’t have the drive or skills to make it here, or they are retiring. It’s as simple as that. Dream on if you think nj is dying. Dream on…

    “Bringing it all together, the best performers over the past three-quarters of a century are the states along the Boston–New York–D.C. corridor; on the West Coast; and Illinois, Texas, Colorado, Arizona, and Hawaii.”

  2. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you compare north jersey 1990 to north jersey 2019, you will realize that lots of middle and lower class areas have been gentrified. There are less and less areas where the poor and lower class can afford to live. That’s a fact, yet 3b takes the opposite position. How, I have no idea, but he somehow thinks it’s getting worse. Even Camden has improved dramatically. You are blind, 3b.

    Juice Box says:
    May 3, 2019 at 9:45 pm
    Anecdotal – Spent some time today in Elizabeth, Linden and Roselle. Sure everything is blooming but there were many manicured laws. Wealth effect folks.

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “About 108,000 millionaires migrated across borders last year, a 14 percent increase from the prior year, and more than double the level in 2013, according to Johannesburg-based New World Wealth. Australia, U.S. and Canada are the top destinations, according to the research firm, while China and Russia are the biggest losers. The U.K. saw around 3,000 millionaires depart last year with Brexit and taxation cited as possible reasons.”

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Music Superstars Are the New One Percenters
    Huge stars like Beyoncé and Taylor Swift are dominating the concert-tour business like never before, as music’s top 1% takes home an increasingly large share of the pie”

  5. 3b says:

    Pumps please leave me out of your ramblings. Spend your efforts today on learning critical thinking concepts. You make start with flash cards to help you remember. Flash card 1. Because I read one article that does not make it true. And I need to read the article deeply and keep it in context. As for gentrification there are more than a few towns in Bergen co that have gone the other way. No I will go back to ignoring you. I expect you to do the same.

  6. chicagofinance says:

    Why is there a pinhole in the New Jersey map in the northern part of the state?

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    I work with a slew of younger folks who are in their early 30s, married, getting married and a kid on the way. They’re constantly asking me about towns in North Jersey because they want to start looking for a house here. Most are from other parts of the country, got their graduate degrees and migrated here.

    This map doesn’t surprise me really. I narrow down a few towns in Bergen/Passaic and let them do a focused search. Morris is an option I tell them but a little further out. A few even set up a meeting and had me do a video conference to show them the area. They know Hoboken and NYC but the outlying suburbs is where they’re looking. They did the Hoboken thing and are now looking to establish roots.

    They don’t want to go back to Altoona, Wisconsin, Southern Cal and even the Princeton area to name a few areas where this younger crowd is from. They want to stay in this area. Take it for what it’s worth but this is what they’re telling me.

  8. Tom from Clifton says:

    This just went up in my hometown:

    700k in Clifton. It will be the most expensive home in the neighborhood by far. not sure it sells for that..

  9. Grim says:


  10. ExEssex says:

    SoCal seems to skew a bit older in the areas i’m Seeing.
    Lots of wealthy cotton tops. LA itself seems like a city than a collection of neighborhoods.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Thanks for showing your side of the story. You know when I say it, it’s not taken seriously, but it’s the truth. Jc and Hoboken had their run up for the time being. It’s now the areas for raising families that will see it. It just comes down to opportunity and value. The areas ignored for close to a decade have now become an outright bargain in comparison to the Gold Coast. It’s economics 101, the market will seek out value aka spillover. They push up the prices till the spillover areas are no longer a value. Then they will drive up Gold Coast again as that has now become a value again in relation to the spillover areas.

    All cycles till the cycle ends. You just need to be aware when a cycle ends. I don’t see the cycle ending in the nyc metro area anytime soon. This is a highly desirable area, and if you don’t realize this, you are blind or naive.

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I grew up in Clifton and own a rental there. The rental market is insane. It just keeps going up. So I’m sure the area housing will reflect this.

    Two years ago, I was getting $1250 for one of the units. This year, I’m now getting $1650.

    Tom from Clifton says:
    May 4, 2019 at 1:50 pm
    This just went up in my hometown:

    700k in Clifton. It will be the most expensive home in the neighborhood by far. not sure it sells for that..

  13. Juice Box says:

    Lol Grim – Splitastrophe

    Just spent my day (after kids activities) putting down 28 bags of mulch, going to need at least three more trips to Lowe’s to get more. I am going to do the rubber mulch only in the far back of my property where my weeping willow with jungle canopy exists. It’s a hill so the regular much washes away anyway, supposed to be good for a decade.

    Neighbor just bought a place in Jupiter FL high-rise condo, they are easing into retirement, hope the new neighbors that buy it next year or so have kids and like to party.

  14. grim says:


    You get it delivered by the yard.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Comment from a wall st journal article. Worth sharing for discussion because I could not agree more. I never saw a Mexican begging for money. I admire the work ethic of their culture. Now if the African American culture could understand this instead of crying and making excuses every single time they come upon hardship. Man up and stop using the race card, it’s your culture’s achilles heel. It holds back your true potential when you stand around feeling sorry for yourself and focusing on excuses instead of working on a plan to get ahead.

    Passaic was run by African Americans at one point, somehow Mexicans passed them up and have setup a ton of new businesses. Wtf is the African Americans excuse? Everyone is racist towards Mexicans including African Americans, yet Mexicans pass you up. SMH.

    You know why? How many times have you seen an African American take on a low pay hardworking job? Nope, too good for it, that’s for Mexicans. And the few willing to scrub toilets or wash dishes to get ahead, how many actually work hard instead of complaining the whole time? Almost none, all just b!tch the whole time about how the world is against them.

    My Sunday rant. Moral of the story. Life is not fair, and never will be. Only thing you can control is how hard you want to work to achieve your goals. So stop wasting energy with worrying about what you can’t control, and start focusing on what you can.

    Will they ever get it? 🤷‍♂️

    “I lived in Austin for 4 years. Never did I see a Mexican on a corner asking for money. The people I saw wanted work. You’ll never find a more hard-working folk than those from Mexico. Natural born Americans can learn a lot from these folks-they have what others come for.“

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s like you couldn’t make a better plan to hold back a culture. Teach them to make excuses, and brainwash them into believing their skin color means that hard work will never get them ahead. Have them teach this in their culture from generation to generation and you have a plan in place that will keep that culture down forever.

  17. BennieIceme says:

    301 Moved Permanently [url=]More info…[/url]

  18. Sunday PumpkinSlayer says:

    Why is every post by this nitwit make me think of Fredo,

    Pumpkin in honesty, your rightly so, dearly deported drug dealing pops left a ton of dough to your granny to give to his kids, aka – laundering money. You are so dumb, you don’t realize the level of privilege given to you. You are right there with W Bush & Donnie Boy, thinking you scored a run, when you started 3 feet from home base. If you were smarter you could have been the equivalent of the polish Suge Knight’s kid running his empire.

    If you want to see true Mexicans, is no different than true Poles (the ones jokes are written about). They stay home and whittle away their days, the poles have an added need to kiss a pope’s b3hind and hoping for another strong leader to kick the j’s with beenies in the behind.

  19. Sunday PumpkinSlayer says:

    The one thing I admit, that generally to be an immigrant period. To take whatever you got and go, requires balls. As it is always easier to stay home and sulk. Even the Declaration of Independence mentions it.

    “and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed”

    When you then think and add the facts that generally, the immigrant that you are likelier to get into this country took those steps. By definition those immigrants have a higher than way above average of balls and of being a square peg in a round hole.

    Now separate true immigrants from cheap corporate labor (all those Visas) and we are ok. Nothing explains it better than this advertising campaign,

    And that is one of the reasons, the USA will always kick ass.

  20. Sunday Pumpkin Slayer says:

    However, it does stand to reason; that if you are at “home”, because either you are native american and being here since the beginning of time or your ancestor got wacked in the head and got kidnapped here.

    Then you are going are much likelier to stay home, sulk and “are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves “, instead of getting out and emigrate. Especially when your “home” is the top of the heap and there is no other place to go that is as tolerant, individualistic, wealthy, rule of law driven as home is.

    So where are blacks going to go and better off? Any place in sub-saharan Africa?. where are native american indians going to go? I don’t have an answer for this one.

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Listen, I’m only making generalizations that I see with my own eyes. It is what it is. Maybe I’m seeing a small sample, but I’ll always believe my own eyes for what it’s worth.

    Native Americans and African Americans experienced tragedies in history, no doubt. Guess what, though? Present life doesn’t give a fu!k. Put the big boy pants on or get rolled over….life does not care, nor feel sorry. It only moves forward.

    All this bs about being held back, but explain Oprah Winfrey. Black, non attractive fat woman that became much more powerful than white privileged men. Spare me the bs, life is what you make of it. Not everyone has the same path or same level of difficulty to get there, but hey, life is not fair, nor was it meant to be. You play the hand you were dealt and try your best.

    Look at Trump. His older brother had an easier path than Donald, but failed, and was overtaken by his younger brother Donald. His brother Cried about it and drank himself to death. White privilege, huh? It’s just so easy….people are idiots and have no idea.

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Some democrats finally get it.

    “The 2020 elec­tion will de­cide if cap­i­tal­ism flour­ishes in Amer­ica. I am a small-busi­ness man—and, yes, a cap­i­tal­ist. But to­day Amer­i­can cap­i­tal­ism is bro­ken. We have to fix it be­fore it’s too late.

    Mr. Hickenlooper served as governor of Colorado, 2011-19, and is a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination.”

  23. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Some highway house occupiers don’t.

    Some democrats finally get it.

  24. Nomad says:


    Read yet another article on the BBB debacle and companies who have the most of it on their balance sheets. Article took aim at InBev, VA, T, ABBV to name a few. Question for you if I might, how do you decide when looking at the above and any others with a lot of BBB rated debt if they really are on the edge in terms of their common stock? Concern is that a lot of this stuff is improperly rated and / or covenant lite. Do you look at simple coverage ratios or do you dig into the debt offerings or have a team member who does? At some point, economy slows and a lot of the “BBB” may not actually be even that good. Thanks,

  25. Bystander says:

    Not a fan of last night’s episode with tips to the Mad King and pending outcome where hundreds of thousands may perish. That dragon lady is crazy and god knows what she will do at the next meeting. Oh sorry I was talking about Orange clown’s escalated trade war and his ugly mouthpiece Huckabee Sanders

  26. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    Trump Tweets. Market Weeps. Libturd Sleeps (knowing the moron in chief is going to bury himself).

  27. Bystander says:

    The scary part Lib, is that he has not yet used the tried and true Repub method of killing a bunch of people in the name of something or other in hopes of winning reelection. That is coming soon enough.

  28. Bruiser says:

    Bystander, the CIA Deep State operatives still loyal to Brak are looking to stir sheet up in Iran. Better dust off your poosyhat and the “No blood for oil” sign in your husband’s closet.

  29. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    I just hope he does not attack China. :P

  30. Bystander says:

    Sure Bruiser..did Alex Jones pull out yet? Hope you got the reacharound at least.

  31. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    I don’t even think the market believes his sh1t anymore. It’s almost laughable.

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Democrats Want To Fight Poverty, but Don’t Value Letting People Work

    All the welfare programs California Democrats can dream up won’t do as much as some commonsense reforms to let people who want to work, work.

    Get ready to pop the cork on a bottle of champagne. As the American Prospect reported earlier this month, California—where a highest-in-the-nation one in five people is poor, according to the Census Bureau’s cost-of-living-based standard—might be on the verge of doing “something that’s never before happened in the United States: eliminate childhood deep poverty.”

    The Legislature simply needs to pass a variety of multibillion-dollar proposals—expanding Medi-Cal, funding universal preschool, investing “major sums” in affordable housing—that Gov. Gavin Newsom has included in his first budget. Obviously, my tongue is firmly planted in cheek—even if Democratic lawmakers and liberal magazine writers might not understand why many of us are guffawing.

    California has the nation’s most-generous social-welfare programs. It is the most progressive state in America politically and has been for years. There are few achievable left-of-center policies that haven’t been tried here, yet poverty is more intractable than ever. Perhaps poverty is so high because of such policies, which always hike taxes, expand programs and regulate the heck out of the private sector.”

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “State lawmakers are consumed by the idea of battling poverty. Local governments are fixated on the problem as well. One of California’s poorest bigger cities, Stockton, is implementing a privately funded pilot program to give poor residents a Universal Basic Income—monthly cash that recipients can use with no strings attached—and has been enjoying favorable media attention as the program rolls out.

    But one state labor official explained why the Stockton giveaway is a bad idea. His words offer a hint at why nothing the state tries ever reduces poverty. “This concept of universal basic income is a surrender to a kind of grim Dickensian view of the future, frankly, in which people are robbed of the dignity of work,” said Barry Broad, who heads the California Employment Training Panel. The money phrase: “dignity of work.”

    For all their blather about the poor, California officials have refused to pick the low-hanging fruit—simple, easy to reach measures that would make it easier for low-income Californians to pursue dignified and lucrative careers. California imposes onerous occupational-licensing rules. If you want to do anything beyond, say, working in a fast-food job, you’ve got to get permission from the state.”

  34. Chicago at Cornell says:

    Nomad: on the road in the PRI. Clot and I are shooting up at The Commons injection house as we speak.

    Skinny. I will answer more later in the week.

    Price is truth. Look at how the bonds trade. If you can extrapolate an indicative spread curve, compare it to historic (to itself), and like credits in industry.

    Look for deterioration over time if you have concerns.

    If the above is gibberish, I will write something in more plain language.

    I am a buy and hold bond investor, so my intention is always to get return of principal, not time the market.

  35. Chi says:

    Do you have access to live quotes? Pick a maturity, and for bullets (No call life) ignore calls on final coupon. Pull up YTM. Look at the secondary spreads. Says a lot

  36. D-FENS says:

    It’s bipartisan…

    Chuck Schumer

    Follow Follow @SenSchumer
    More Chuck Schumer Retweeted Donald J. Trump
    Hang tough on China, President @realDonaldTrump. Don’t back down.

    Strength is the only way to win with China.

  37. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    The two egoists in Chief giving each other back rubs.

  38. Nomad says:

    Thanks Chi. Yes, I have live quotes. More concerned about impact on the price of the equity but bonds dropping from BBB to junk would hurt, hence the concern. Bond market seems still hungry to eat almost anything so for now no problem but its not going to last. Still confused as to how interest rates have not gone up more with or without JP doing anything.

  39. leftwing says:

    CDS spreads.

    Did a deep dive into the BBB short equity thesis last year.

    For a top down view, dated a bit now, there’s a JPM report by their NA Credit Research dated 29 Nov, Eric Beinstein lead analyst. I’d offer it up somehow but only have it in hard copy.

  40. No One says:

    Egotists, not egoists.
    Aristotle was an egoist, Trump is an egotist.

  41. leftwing says:

    For me, if you’re looking for a credit market risk short, I’m looking very hard at TSLA. Too many factors to list but I didn’t view the recent convert as the company coming from strength. Play is a bit longer term since they pushed out maturities and I need to massage the numbers a bit more but these guys have seriously kicked the can down the road, funding everything with low coupon converts.

    General idea, still developing, is if the rather fickle convert market isn’t open to them in the future getting even HY may be a reach and it certainly won’t be at a convert coupon rate. Add in a stock ceiling for potential dilution if the stock is through the convert price (need to finish a hard look here given all the hedging transactions, $262m out of the $1.6B offered in the most recent issue alone).

    Bottom line, if I have a stock that needs operations to make the major ramp they are selling or face refi/financing risk and it has some type of top on the stock price due to all the equivalent shares underlying the converts I may go in hard. Still researching.

  42. Libturd, can't say I didn't warn you. says:

    I normally would appreciate the advice noone, but I think either is acceptable in this case.

    / (ˈiːɡəʊɪst, ˈɛɡ-) /
    a person who is preoccupied with his own interests; a selfish person
    a conceited person; egotist
    ethics a person who lives by the values of egoism

    / (ˈiːɡətɪst, ˈɛɡ-) /
    a conceited boastful person
    a self-interested person; egoist

  43. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    He already is. When we think of war, we tend to think kinetic warfare, but that’s only one of three theaters of war.

    1. Technological war
    2. Economic war
    3. Kinetic war

    Most politicians and bankers are guilty of treason in one or more theaters. Most voters don’t have the vision to see where the surrenders are in theaters 1 & 2.

    I think the SALT cap is causing the spread of Trump Derangement Syndrome in states that don’t matter.

    I just hope he does not attack China. :P

  44. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Has anyone noticed that no Dem candidates, except dopey Biden, have said word one about China? Biden is like Groot after Rocket tells him if he says anything about China the whole Democrat party will implode.

    Study vocabulary words for tonight: Belt, Road, man-made islands.

  45. ExEssex says:

    Imagine a place the size of The US, Mexico, and Canada. China’s bigger.

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