Wow.
From the NYT:
F.D.A. Clears Johnson & Johnson’s Shot, the Third Vaccine for U.S.
The Food and Drug Administration on Saturday authorized Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, beginning the rollout of millions of doses of a third effective vaccine that could reach Americans by early next week.
The announcement arrived at a critical moment, as the steep decline in coronavirus cases seems to have plateaued and millions of Americans are on waiting lists for shots.
Johnson & Johnson has pledged to provide the United States with 100 million doses by the end of June. When combined with the 600 million doses from the two-shot vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna slated to arrive by the end of July, there will be more than enough shots to cover any American adult who wants one.
But federal and state health officials are concerned that even with strong data to support it, some people may perceive Johnson & Johnson’s shot as an inferior option.
The new vaccine’s 72 percent efficacy rate in the U.S. clinical trial site — a number scientists have celebrated — falls short of the roughly 95 percent rate found in studies testing the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines. Across all trial sites, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine also showed 85 percent efficacy against severe forms of Covid-19 and 100 percent efficacy against hospitalization and death.
Like teaching. Over last year I have often wondered why we can’t get young educated Indians to teach kids by computer for 1/4 price. No benefits, no pension for life after 20 years. Cut our tax bills in half. All these Indians are far more literate in English than resident dufus. Basic algebra by second grade. Win for all. Teachers are not creative drones who provide no value.
I mentioned the folks over at White Hat Jr. before. They have some great teachers. Not cheap by any means though.
Brilliant idea. Absolutely brilliant. Let’s get poor Indians to educate our kids to save some money. That will work out well.
You are a character. Cry about your industry getting destroyed, but then wish that upon others. Sad, just sad.
Bystander says:
February 27, 2021 at 7:48 pm
“Basic jobs that require no in person interaction or creativity, only monotonous drone work will go WFH. Those jobs were going to be shipped or die to automation anyway.”
Like teaching. Over last year I have often wondered why we can’t get young educated Indians to teach kids by computer for 1/4 price. No benefits, no pension for life after 20 years. Cut our tax bills in half. All these Indians are far more literate in English than resident dufus. Basic algebra by second grade. Win for all. Teachers are not creative drones who provide no value.
Does it make you feel good every time you attack the teaching profession?
Yea, let’s get them teachers. I don’t have a pension, so they shouldn’t have one either. I don’t have health benefits, neither should they. Let’s get them!
Loser talk…
Instead of hating, go get yours. Stop being a sad jealous prick. The teaching profession is not something to be jealous of. The billionaire class, now that’s something to be jealous of. Not some peasant profession, where you make 60k for half your career. I don’t know why anyone would be jealous of teachers.
My friends brother who is a chemistry teacher. He took 10,000 dollars and turned it into 400k from Jan to end of February. He lost a 100k, cashed out, saved money for taxes, and then paid off his mortgage.
How? He followed the Reddit groups mostly on banking stocks, and doubled his money over and over.
Grim: Can you close the comments again?
If you want schools to stop being the whipping boy, teachers need to go back to work full time and stop playing games with kids education. They also need to stop pushing ideological nonsense, which has become almost the norm the past 4 years. Even the left is starting to realize how nuts these people are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pabbzNjZ2s
Pumps: You state WFH is only suitable for mindless drones, doing mindless work. That’s your two cents. And yet no experience to back up that statement. In fact you have no idea at all. People then make comments about teachers doing mindless drone work, and you cry foul. It’s simply amazing that you do not see this. Self Awareness.
My wife’s cousins district in Ct. is going back to the classroom full time on Monday. Greenwich district I believe.
We are 5 days as of this week but still 1/2 days kids are home from school by 1:15 PM. There is a video call at 2:20 PM to end the day and online gym and band activities. I spend most of my time keeping my youngest focused as remote learning it does not work well for him, my oldest needs no supervision at all.
3b,
Exactly my point. Guy has no idea on the complexity of large orgs. Last 10 years, my bank shed nearly all its NYC area knowledge base for cheaper dev in India. We can’t get anything done on time noe. The bureaucracy is astounding now. Global data restrictions, access reviews, barrier arrangements, security, local HR hiring laws, legal/visa costs, third party risk management..etc etc. One of these things falls apart and you have resources sitting for a month or more doing zilch. I had two cases last week where someone off-boarded people inadvertently and now weeks to get system access returned. This is sidework to actually managing tech change work gets delivered. Dummy has never managed resources globally nor seen the entire banking sausage machine to determine where these drones are..very few left. Try managing app support team in India and deal with clueless users who had positions consolidated down and don’t understand apps they use. AI and automation won’t solve flippant user changes and poor inputs.
Yep, 3b..my son goes back FT next week in Fairfield. It was 3 hours in school, 2 online since fall then went to 4 hrs, 1 hr online in Jan. Now back to full day.
The PPP should be protecting businesses like this instead of lining the pockets of wealthy .
https://www.yahoo.com/news/l-restaurant-closes-high-tech-220257492.html
A burger place in my area didn’t have an app and stopped taking phone orders unless you gave them your credit card over the phone because they were having so many fake orders. They are now out of business. Too bad. They had great burgers and fries.
“Grim: Can you close the comments again?”
LOL. The lights went on and there was pumpkin splooge all over. Out with the lights!
HMB, re: virtual dine and dash chargebacks…people and especially the credit card companies are sh1t….over 10+ years I think I’ve literally had two chargebacks. I have an ironclad services agreement that even expressly prohibits the customer from seeking a chargeback…no matter, the card companies will side with the customer….after whacking you for card fees of up to 5%…..customer almost never loses these disputes.
Michael Burry on ARK
It is too early, she is too hot, and,today, shorts sellers are timid, but Wall Street will be ruthless in the end.
“Of the 29 stocks that ARKK owns more than 10% of, only five have seen more puts than calls trade on average over the last five days”
School choice is in CA and has been for years.
Good really if you think about it but it is not a panacea.
Teachers are loved and hated we all know how that works.
Important point the government here won’t give you money to attend private schools. You want that for your kids? Buck up buttercup.
California does not currently offer vouchers or tuition tax credits for private school choice. Propositions to amend the state constitution to allow school vouchers were defeated by large margins in 1993 and 2010. State Laws on other forms of School Choice: California’s open enrollment program was enacted in 2010.
Left, I was working in an auto garage hot rodding cars. Guys gf paid for his turbo and new exhaust system. Was something like 11k. A month later she broke up with him and filed a dispute on the charges. We had her on video and her signature along with witnesses. Took over 2 years to resolve.
Paypal/Ebay is even worse. Ebay was great when it was your reputation-people used to mail money orders to those with a good rep.
Now with Paypal, you can send something brand new and lose it to a criminal.
The legal system is a wonderful thing.
Easy fellas. It’s possible to win in the game of life and love.
You just gotta be smart as hell when it comes to women.
Most men pick the best looking regardless of what her real story is,
Tsk tsk tsk a rookie error. Also if you are lucky your wife will outperform you
monetarily. If so then she’ll be the one paying you dat monthly vig.
Makes a gal think twice and a man play nice.
Dear Financial Samurais,
After writing about how I’m growing concerned, it’s a bummer the stock market and its many growth stocks decided to meltdown soon after. But at least it shows we are in-tune with the market and, therefore, aren’t taking excessive risk.
Even though it feels like we are playing with the house’s money after a ferocious rebound in practically all risk assets since March 2020, it still doesn’t feel good to give up our gains.
I’ve shared some spending ideas in the post, Revenge Spend Time! Ways To Get Back At Life. It’s generally a good idea to take a small portion of your profits and regularly spend on improving the quality of your life. Otherwise, what’s the point of saving and investing so aggressively for so long?
Further, I’m exploring once again the concept of being happy with enough in, The Ideal Financial Scenario In Retirement: Conservative Returns, Steady Income. Financial loss creates stress. And given stress kills, your goal as a retiree should be to remove as much stress from your life as possible.
What Happened To Max Leverage?
You may be wondering how my preschool teacher friend from last week is doing. He has over 1,000 Tesla shares on margin. Tesla is down about $200/share or 22% from its high.
You would think losing over $200,000 in a week would seem painful if your annual salary is only ~$70,000. However, when I asked him what his plan was he didn’t seem perturbed.
He said, “We’ve had worse corrections before. I’m buying more!”
I had thought he was at maximum margin, but I was wrong. Apparently, he still has more fire power. It’s either that or he is getting additional capital from his parents.
It seems to me, at least here in the SF Bay Area, there is an endless amount of wealth.
Yesterday, I played doubles with a wealth manager for high-net-worth clients. He said “There has been more wealth created over these last few years than ever before, squared!”
He went on to say, “One of my clients decided to buy a $15 million Napa property that is located less than a mile away from last year’s fires. He just wanted to diversify his gains into real assets.”
Finally, some music to my ears! Not so much the buying of Napa property part, but the conversion of gains into tangible assets part
Everything Is Rational
Long ago, I decided that everything is rational. As soon as you start thinking everything is rational, curiosities no longer bother you as much. The energy saved from no longer being bothered or worried can be used for more productive activities.
For example, I was going to see if my preschool teacher friend needed a bridge loan in case he was facing a margin call. I had about $50,000 to lend. However, my outreach was unnecessary since he said he was buying more.
Since everything is rational, sooner or later, we tend to get what we deserve besides some unlucky breaks. And if we feel we don’t deserve what we get, we rationally take action to change the outcome.
In other words, we’ve all done a Financial SEER analysis to quantify our risk tolerance and determine our appropriate equity exposure. And if we don’t do a Financial SEER analysis or something similar, it simply means we are OK with whatever outcome our investments produce.
Private Investments FTW
This past week’s stock market decline is a reminder of why I’m happy to invest in long-term, private investments where there is no daily ticker. After doing my due diligence, I like to invest my capital and forget about it for 3-5+ years.
Every time I receive a dividend payment or distribution, it feels like a nice unexpected windfall. Despite the fees, it can also feel good to invest in a fund where a group of people is spending their lives monitoring your investments and making investment decisions for you so you don’t have to.
If you dislike stock market volatility and want to diversify, check out CrowdStreet, my favorite real estate crowdfunding platform for accredited investors. CrowdStreet primarily focuses on 18-hour cities where real estate valuations are lower, cap rates are higher, and growth rates may be potentially higher due to positive demographic shifts.
At this moment, I would rather invest in a laggard real estate investment opportunity than a stock that is priced for perfection. As always, please do your due diligence before making any investment. After all, you are a rational investor!
Things To Track Going Forward
Pay attention to the 10-year bond yield. 1.5% isn’t a big problem. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is still under 3%. It’s the rapid increase and expectations for higher interest rates due to inflationary fears that have gotten equity investors spooked.
Over the long run, a rising yield curve and higher 10-year bond yield are bullish signals for economic growth. Short-term sell-offs are where opportunities are found.
As a real estate investor, by definition, you will benefit from inflationary pressure owning a real asset. Therefore, if you are a renter who believes inflation is heading higher, I would try and lock in a long-term lease now or get neutral real estate by owning. Make sure you do the math and hunt for deals, as many more people have the same idea now.
Let’s hope the passage of the latest $1.9 trillion stimulus package isn’t fully priced into the market. Supposedly Biden is working on another infrastructure spending deal. Let’s also hope the J&J vaccine approval by the FDA helps accelerate achieving herd immunity by loosening up the supply bottlenecks.
There’s only about three months left to go before most of us get vaccinated and get to truly unleash our pent-up savings. I remain bullish. Keep the faith!
Paypal/Ebay is even worse. Ebay was great when it was your reputation-people used to mail money orders to those with a good rep.
Now with Paypal, you can send something brand new and lose it to a criminal.
About 10 years ago, I ran into an issue with selling collectable cards. I listed them all over the course of a month. Sold them all, shipped them out. Immediately, every single one filed a dispute. Paypal froze the money, and then I was only able to get it unfrozen after agreeing to a 20% discount. These are guys who would outbid others then get it cheaper than what they wanted.
The original feedback system on ebay was fantastic. Rated buyers. Rated sellers. The second they eliminated buyer feedback, it devolved into crap.
Consider all the hubbub over GameStop and the power of retail traders betting as one. Will Robinhood revolutionize trading for the masses and turn everyone into an investor? Probably not. Once the pandemic ends people will have other things to spend their money on like restaurants and travel. And I for one am waiting for all the stories about people getting fired for trading on Robinhood all day at work once we have to go back to the office.
But will every hedge fund worth its salt be checking the Wall Street Bets subreddit for as long as this retail trading trend goes on? You bet. They’ll be trading on the information they glean there and probably impart some wisdom of their own too. It’s all fun and games until somebody loses a savings.
https://apple.news/ALJGvf3v-S9WPlm-YbMxCAA
Dude: don’t gloat; it is a bad look….. good for you though…. better to be lucky than good.
ExEssex says:
February 28, 2021 at 1:51 pm
Easy fellas. It’s possible to win in the game of life and love.
You just gotta be smart as hell when it comes to women.
Most men pick the best looking regardless of what her real story is,
Tsk tsk tsk a rookie error. Also if you are lucky your wife will outperform you
monetarily. If so then she’ll be the one paying you dat monthly vig.
Makes a gal think twice and a man play nice.
The original feedback system on ebay was fantastic. Rated buyers. Rated sellers. The second they eliminated buyer feedback, it devolved into crap.
The minute paypal entered the game it devolved into crap. You had to have a real rep to get paid well by USPS money orders. I was great with my customers, the money orders would come with no problem cause I was trustworthy.
There is feedback, but it doesn’t mean anything anymore, just like Amazon feedback when they give out goodies for free.
And Consumer reports- you can’t spot a crap transmission in a Subaru Ascent? Rev up your engines and watch Scotty instead. Although he will say what I’ve known for years, buy Toyota or Lexus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yj83bN6mew
“A man’s loyalty to his woman is tested when he has everything. A womans loyalty to her man is tested when he has nothing.”
ExEssex says:
February 28, 2021 at 1:51 pm
Easy fellas. It’s possible to win in the game of life and love.
You just gotta be smart as hell when it comes to women.
Most men pick the best looking regardless of what her real story is,
Tsk tsk tsk a rookie error. Also if you are lucky your wife will outperform you
monetarily. If so then she’ll be the one paying you dat monthly vig.
Makes a gal think twice and a man play nice.
This will end well. Almost like to his happened before but I guess putting a few % down and taking 2.5 30 year means no bubble.
LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — A new report shows Las Vegas home values remain at a record high. The median prices for a single family home sold in January was $345,000, up 13% in the past year.
Las Vegas REALTORS say the local housing market is performing better during the pandemic than people expected. The reason existing homes are getting more expensive is because there isn’t enough supply to keep up with the demand by buyers.
“This month’s statistics are especially encouraging when you consider that January is usually one of the slowest months for both home sales and prices,” said 2021 LVR President Aldo Martinez.
Martinez adds that the number of local homes available for sale remains well below the six-month supply considered to be a balanced market. In fact, he said the sales pace in January equates to less than a one-month supply of existing homes available for sale, creating a housing shortage.
Mortgage interest rates are also historically low, leading to more sales and record prices.
“It’s a great time in history to own a home. When you look at the interest rates. I keep saying this over and over again, because they’re just so incredibly low. I’ve never seen anything like that at least in my lifetime. When I bought my first house I paid 10%. Now, we’re sitting at 2.675,” Martinez said.
In the coming months, that could change if more existing homes are put up for sale. New listings tend to increase heading into the spring months.
Analysts with Fitch, a credit rating agency, released a report last week saying among the 20 largest metro areas nationwide, Las Vegas was the most overvalued housing market in the country with homes being valued at 28% more than they are worth.
LVR reported a total of 3,262 existing local homes, condos and townhomes were sold during January. By the end of January, LVR reported 2,315 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer.
Someone gets it!!
“Everyone calling for the demise of Kathy. I dare you all to short it or her “vulnerable” names. Most of the stocks are good growth stocks. If they get cut in half why wouldn’t they be bought by other large and small investors? Dynamics are different from a short squeeze.”
The experts said a recession was coming and tech stocks were in a bubble -2015. Actually, almost every year from 2010-2020. Those “hyperinflation” talk in the early days of the decade were so on point. F the bears!
Bystander says:
February 28, 2021 at 4:09 pm
This will end well. Almost like to his happened before but I guess putting a few % down and taking 2.5 30 year means no bubble
“CU has been screaming Tesla from the roof tops for years now. She made what arcane hedge funds do accessible to the public through an ETF. She publishes her research and gives her market views direct to the public. Unlike hedge funds she enables immediate liquidity.
She upended almost every rule in the money management book and she put her own money into doing it, atleast initially. And worst of all she’s been tremendously successful over the last couple of years. Ofcourse that makes a lot of traditional money managers unhappy.
Ofcourse they’d like her to go down.. Why give them 2/20 when ARK offers better returns and terms? Not including you as you manage your own money. Innovation is long term & risky and her investors understand that.”
Sure what’s a dozen trillion here or there keep Nostradumb@ss feeling smart. Keep thinking Great Oz has it all figured out for you.
Demographics matter
“China Got Its Economy Growing Again, but a Shortfall in Babies Will Be Harder to Fix
Some economists say a shrinking workforce threatens China’s chances of overtaking the U.S. as the world’s largest economy”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-got-its-economy-growing-again-but-a-shortfall-in-babies-will-be-harder-to-fix-11614488414?st=xowx7xk5tq98w7f&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Cuomo is truly sorry.
https://nypost.com/2021/02/28/cuomo-sorry-for-jokes-amid-sexual-harassment-claims/
COVID numbers are dropping, a new vaccine got approved, and cuomo might get taken down. Feb was a good month.
Pumps, I’ll short if you buy on margin, deal?
Exactly what Cathie says, the bond market is the bubble.
https://apple.news/AbwGdcJHKSSef_1SNxMAFfw
You are a smart guy, don’t make a stupid move because of ego( human nature.)
It kills you that someone you think is beneath your intelligence is so on point in the investment game for this long. Keep up the gold fever or wake up and smell the coffee.
Brt says:
February 28, 2021 at 7:13 pm
Pumps, I’ll short if you buy on margin, deal?
This is 2010-2013 all over again. Give me ARK!!
he Great Pumpkin says:
February 28, 2021 at 7:36 pm
Exactly what Cathie says, the bond market is the bubble.
https://apple.news/AbwGdcJHKSSef_1SNxMAFfw
Even worse, she’s obtained Elizabeth Holmes like force field where you can’t criticize her moves because she’s a successful woman. Your only saving grace is this thing will probably collapsed before you dollar cost average your entire salary into her fund.
Facebook post after Facebook post ripping into Florida
“Vincent Birritteri you couldn’t say it better, we live in Tampa and yes the winters are fantastic, other than that this place is a cesspool. It’s trashy everywhere. Yes they have some nice areas but it’s not cheap, the summers are terrible here and they do not pay well and salaries. Please don’t believe the hype, I love Jersey suburbs. You’re in between two of the largest cities in the country. Schools are much better in NJ. I want to get out of here! I see a lot of people always saying they want to come to Florida, but never lived here. After a few years you will get tired of the heat, the weirdos in every gas station, the terrible driving( with high car insurance)and no… you will not be going to Beaches every weekend. Mobile homes right next to very nice neighborhoods. I can’t wait to get outta here!! If you’re not born here it’s not what you will think it is…”
Sounds like the 3b of Florida
Stu: check it out
https://www.wsj.com/articles/many-new-yorkers-want-barbecue-just-make-it-kosher-11614294572?st=s6e25mnootaludu&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Pumps : is that your two cents?? You should be lying low for a bit after making a complete fool of yourself yet again over the last couple of days.
Elizabeth Holmes is hot. Once you get used to those crazy eyes.
Went looking for an old post I thought was on here about a movie. I’m always looking for something good to take my mind off of the crap I am dealing with to get rid of my insomnia. No luck.
But I did see something. Juice, thank you for your response the other day. I missed it. The one about children. Means a whole lot to me.
There is nothing worse than putting a child on the planet and watching them suffer. Mine is hurting and there is nothing I can do. It really sucks.
To all on here who have a child suffering in any way I wish you and them the best always. Thanks Grim for keeping this site in place.
Have a good night. Over and out.
I seriously think they played with the 10yr last week to have the justification for the big 60/40 rotations and rebalancing at the end of the month. The big yield numbers are coming down hard now and we are gonna see ATH’s in all indices due to the new stimmy and recovery plays. They preyed on the bond holders and so many passive allocation retirement funds again will hold the bag. People will not realize the dangers of cookie cutter 60/40 like portfolios at the non-normal times of these.
Who needs state licenses? We don’t need no stinking license!
https://www.njgreendirect.com/
Rent to own is back in Manhattan of all places. Developers are unable to sell now offering Rent to Own.
“There was a fluctuation in the market, and a lot of developers were taking condos and turning them into apartments with rent-to-own programs,” he said.
Covid seemed as if it might have created similar market conditions, so he searched online to see if any developers were offering similar deals. As it turned out, his landlord, Magnum Real Estate Group, was offering rent-to-own programs on unsold units at two of its developments, 100 Barclay and 196 Orchard.
Both developments were luxurious, especially compared with the tenement apartment where they had been living, and Ms. Kimbro excitedly perused the buildings’ listings. She was taken with a two-bedroom apartment at 100 Barclay, in TriBeCa. But it was a bit too luxurious, with an asking price of about $3.6 million.
They settled, instead, on a one-bedroom with a large private terrace at 196 Orchard, a condo development on the Lower East Side that was completed in 2016 and is just around the corner from their old apartment.
$6,000 | LOWER EAST SIDE
Michael Kimbro, 45, and Amanda Kimbro, 32
Rent to own: In the first six months of the lease, 75 percent of their rent will go toward the $1.6 million purchase price, the amount drops to 50 percent in the following six months.
Occupation: Mr. Kimbro runs an import business. Ms. Kimbro, who worked as a registered nurse in Houston, now runs several e-commerce businesses.
New York vs. Houston: “It’s a trade-off — 280 square feet is half the size of our garage in Houston,” Ms. Kimbro said. “On the other hand, in Houston it can take a couple of hours to grocery shop because of all the traffic.”
Missing pre-pandemic New York: “I miss shopping. Not buying, but I like looking at vintage shops, taxidermy stores, the fabric district, Chinese shops where they sell different stones,” Ms. Kimbro said.
Why the Lower East Side: “For years I stayed in touristy Midtown hotels, but once they were all booked for Fashion Week or something so I had to book down here. I liked that people in the bodegas would know you,” Mr. Kimbro said.
The apartment, listed for $1.6 million, rents for $6,000 a month furnished, with 75 percent of the rent going toward the purchase price in the first six months, and 50 percent in the next six months. If the couple decide not to buy the unit, they receive no money back and there is no option to renew.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/realestate/renters-lower-east-side.html?surface=most-popular&fellback=false&req_id=846626901&algo=bandit-all-surfaces-decay-decay-02&variant=2_bandit-all-surfaces-decay-decay-02&imp_id=691287588&action=click&module=Most%20Popular&pgtype=Homepage
1.6 million for an apartment the size of a living room on the LES. My ancestors scrimped and saved to get out of the LES and thought they had made it when they moved to The Bronx 100 years ago.
Saw this in the annual Munger meeting transcript. Leftwing will appreciate it.
How do you know you really understand something? Avoid confirmation bias.
Well, I do have a tip. At times in my life, I have put myself to a standard that I think has helped me: I think I’m not really equipped to comment on this subject until I can state the arguments against my conclusion better than the people on the other side. If you do that all the time; if you’re looking for disconfirming evidence and putting yourself on a grill, that’s a good way to help remove ignorance.
For the full deal. https://www.mymoneyblog.com/charlie-munger-daily-journal-annual-meeting-2021-full-video-full-transcript-highlights.html
Munger and the Lollapalooza effect from one of his speeches.
Pretty good stuff about herd behavior. Here is the example from the Housing Bubble.
“The Lollapalooza effect and the mortgage crisis
The 2007-2008 mortgage crisis is a textbook example of the Lollapalooza effect. Before the mortgage market imploded, brokers were highly motivated to sell home loans, because the more they sold, the more money they earned. They had once been more concerned about the creditworthiness of borrowers, as lenders had a practice of keeping mortgages on their books and thus stood to lose a great deal in the event of a loan default. However, when Wall Street introduced the concept of selling mortgages to the financial markets, it created a gigantic Lollapalooza effect.
Suddenly every player in the market had a different motivation: Brokers wanted to make money, investors who bought the mortgages wanted to make money, banks wanted to make money, and borrowers wanted to purchase their dream homes regardless of whether they could actually afford them. No single player thought about the long-term consequences, and as a result, the mortgage market collapsed because of an overwhelming dose of human misjudgment.
As an investor, it’s important to recognize when a Lollapalooza effect might come into play. When various complex scenarios and competing motivations converge, it can result in a volatile situation. Achieving success as an investor is often a matter of avoiding situations that are extremely difficult to predict due to the number of moving pieces involved. In other words, if there’s no good way to determine whether an investment is a smart one, then you may be better off staying away.”
We could also easily apply this to the crypto bubble or any other investment bubble like the coming supper massive Green Energy bubble brewing. When is President Sleeping Joe going to pitch the next trillion dollar package anyway? You know the trillions for “infrastructure” AKA smart grids, windmills in every yard solar panels on every roof?
Chi, great call on XOM a few months back.
Somebody is definitely playing games with it. It’s all over the place. Also, to automatically assume inflation is coming, especially with deflationary disruptive tech at play, is plain old gambling.
njtownhomer says:
March 1, 2021 at 1:52 am
I seriously think they played with the 10yr last week to have the justification for the big 60/40 rotations and rebalancing at the end of the month. The big yield numbers are coming down hard now and we are gonna see ATH’s in all indices due to the new stimmy and recovery plays. They preyed on the bond holders and so many passive allocation retirement funds again will hold the bag. People will not realize the dangers of cookie cutter 60/40 like portfolios at the non-normal times of these.
re: inflation is coming?
Nope it’s already here. I am going to explain it one more time Pumps. It starts in
in export driven economies in food, and will make it to our shores last.
“Global food prices are going up, and the timing couldn’t be worse.
In Indonesia, tofu is 30% more expensive than it was in December. In Brazil, the price of local mainstay turtle beans is up 54% compared to last January. In Russia, consumers are paying 61% more for sugar than a year ago.”
Emerging markets are feeling the pain of a blistering surge in raw material costs, as commodities from oil to copper and grains are driven higher by expectations for a “roaring 20s” post-pandemic economic recovery as well as ultra-loose monetary policies.
Consumers in the U.S., Canada and Europe won’t be immune either as companies — already under pressure from pandemic-related disruptions and rising transport and packaging costs — run out of ways to absorb the surge.”
FURTHER DOWN THE ARTICLE.
“In the U.S., prices rose close to 3% in the year ending Jan. 2, according to Nielsen, roughly double the overall rate of inflation. That small jump adds up, particularly for families already near the edge. The poorest Americans already spend 36% of their income on food, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and mass layoffs in lower-wage work like retail and transportation have increased the strain on household budgets.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-01/inflation-2021-malnutrition-and-hunger-fears-rise-as-food-prices-soar-globally
Question for the Peanut Gallery. Has anyone noticed smaller packaging for the same price? For example a package that was 12oz that was $4.99 in now 8 oz for the same price?
Then there is the news about the rich and the new “creative” finance type news like this, to let you leverage to the hilt. How about a new form of liquidity for the rich? Let them borrow against 2 Trillion in artwork to the tune of $400 billion. That money will go to bet on the “roaring 20’s” in the markets for sure.
https://newfinancemagazine.com/the-wealthy-are-borrowing-billions-against-their-art-collections/
Juice,
How much of that price rise is based on broken supply lines that drove up pricing? How much of it is based on speculation? Some big boys buying up most of the supply, forcing everyone to pay more and more for it? Will it last? You see at the end of the article, they talk about deflationary measures, like people cutting back, and inventing new types of meat in the laboratory.
Think about long term. Car costs are about to become much cheaper for the avg individual as fleets of driverless cars drive people efficiently around. Energy costs are going to keep dropping significantly. I imagine healthcare costs will eventually drop as we become more efficient at treating diseases through gene therapy.
Question for the Peanut Gallery. Has anyone noticed smaller packaging for the same price? For example a package that was 12oz that was $4.99 in now 8 oz for the same price?
This has been happening since 08. My big quibble has always been “Super Pretzels”. They’ve been decreasing in size forever to the point that you get six tiny pretzels in the box. I’d rather pay the correct price for big pretzels.
That being said, I’ve given up on them and I buy a 20 pack from Philly Pretzel factory and freeze them.
I imagine healthcare costs will eventually drop as we become more efficient at treating diseases through gene therapy.
Healthcare costs have consistently risen over a 40 year period in every single industry other than laser eye surgery and cosmetic surgery. The only two treatments that operate outside of insurance.
You seriously overestimate how far gene therapy is along (been drinking too much of that ARK koolaid). Moreover, the only reason why a company like Moderna skyrocketed is because the shackles of the FDA were temporarily removed by the Covid crisis.
It’s going to drop due to major improvements in technology. Apple is already making huge gains in that area. My heart rate and sleeping patterns are tracked 24/7. My exercise and steps are tracked 24/7. Now think about 10 years from now.
Inflation is a tricky target. I understand both sides of the argument, especially Burry’s perhaps. But a reality is the deflationary times we live in. Dave Rosenberg, Lacy Hunt and many experts have been expecting this too.
The food and goods may have been going up, but the labor and services are certainly lagging. The tech impact and the reduced demand is there too for now. I used to fly 10-20 times a year, not expecting that much in a few years any more. Commuting time has been reduced dramatically too.
re: ” people cutting back” You mean like starving?
The article is about hunger and malnutrition around the world do to rising food prices. Some countries had to put in export controls to keep the food in their country to people don’t starve.
You again missed the point completely, not here not yet, we don’t have to cut back. We will spend and print as we don’t have to worry about trading our dollars for other currencies as we don’t get 200 million pounds of avocados for Super Bowl Sunday from American growers, it all comes here in the belly of airplanes to feed fat Americans guacamole and avocado toast.
You have never been anywhere else you just won’t understand Pumps. Try opening your eyes. In some places Avocados are now so expensive they are used as a currency in other countries because there is massive unemployment and no money. Those countries cannot print their way to prosperity. There is now talk of additional money printing from the UN using SDRs to help them out. That is going to be done in dollars that will never be paid back.
Inflation is a tricky target. I understand both sides of the argument, especially Burry’s perhaps. But a reality is the deflationary times we live in. Dave Rosenberg, Lacy Hunt and many experts have been expecting this too.
The food and goods may have been going up, but the labor and services are certainly lagging. The tech impact and the reduced demand is there too for now. I used to fly 10-20 times a year, not expecting that much in a few years any more. Commuting time has been reduced dramatically too.
New money has continuously flowed overseas through purchase of imports and it has only come back in the form of foreigners buying our prime real estate and stock markets. Those two assets ballooned. Now they are going for commodities so the effects are now going to be felt. Also, we ramped up fossil fuel production to epic proportions which helped out immensely.
In 2008, the argument was inflation vs. deflation, what would occur?
Creepy. Why would you want a company to monitor and capture your health data. Do you think they are doing this out of the kindness of their heart?
“It’s going to drop due to major improvements in technology. Apple is already making huge gains in that area. My heart rate and sleeping patterns are tracked 24/7. My exercise and steps are tracked 24/7. Now think about 10 years from now.”
I’m waiting for a crypto backed by Parmagianno Reggiano wheels. In Italy, bank vaults are loaded with them.
The line for the vaccine just got longer.
“New Jersey teachers, child care and transportation workers will be eligible starting March 15 for the coronavirus vaccine, Gov. Phil Murphy announced Monday morning.
The governor, appearing on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” said it’s “an imperative” to have those people vaccinated and hinted he would provide additional details at his regular COVID-19 briefing in Trenton at 1 p.m. Murphy followed with a Tweet indicating the new group would includes “additional public safety workers.””
Fauci says numbers don’t lie when trying to criticize the South Dakota governor ignoring the fact that both North/South Dakota have gotten themselves down to summer baseline quicker than any other state without lockdowns. I wonder if this guy even looks at the data or is just handed sheets of talking points at this point.
His credibility went of the side of the cliff when he started doing PR appearances online with Murphy and Cuomo touting how good they’ve done.
JB,
Absolutely. It is American style inflation. This is easy for me to identify as I have young kids that only eat certain items. My 6 year old lives off pancakes. Actually likes Kruste*z light and fluffy Buttermilk. It used to be 32 oz for $2, now redesigned box at 25 oz for same price. For my 4 year old, we get Dr. Pra*gers Kale bites which is 10 oz for $5 and now they only have “Kale Puffs” for 9 oz at same price. If only someone could invent pancake in can, I am sure a moron would tell us about disruptive tech innovation surrounding it.
Channeling 2014:
Hey guys, there is this disruptive technology that allows you to track exercise data on your wrist. It will revolutionize the world. Think of the possibilities – tracking your step count..er ahh and lots of other things I guess. Surely the $51 share price undervalues this life-impacting game changer. We will all lose 30 lbs and Kate Upton will f-us all. Jump in now..hurry.
I want to track it. I want a doctor to have data to look at if something were to ever occur.
Hold my beer says:
March 1, 2021 at 10:24 am
Creepy. Why would you want a company to monitor and capture your health data. Do you think they are doing this out of the kindness of their heart?
Disruptive tech is coming whether you realize it or not.
Bystander says:
March 1, 2021 at 11:04 am
Channeling 2014:
Hey guys, there is this disruptive technology that allows you to track exercise data on your wrist. It will revolutionize the world. Think of the possibilities – tracking your step count..er ahh and lots of other things I guess. Surely the $51 share price undervalues this life-impacting game changer. We will all lose 30 lbs and Kate Upton will f-us all. Jump in now..hurry.
BRT,
For how long have you taken the position that major inflation is coming? 20 years?
What about your brainwaves? oh wait… that’s right…
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 1, 2021 at 9:55 am
It’s going to drop due to major improvements in technology. Apple is already making huge gains in that area. My heart rate and sleeping patterns are tracked 24/7. My exercise and steps are tracked 24/7. Now think about 10 years from now.
Chi,
Burn of the year. Dying..
Dufus, I bought Silver at $7 and Gold at $400 prior to the runups at the end of the 2010. I bought dividend stocks in 2009 and 2010 and watched them double and increase their dividends consistently. I naturally have tech exposure from index funds and that’s enough for my taste. And yes, I’m still right.
You decided ARK was a buy once it hit its all time high and were literally the last one in the door.
Bloodwork is far more important.
Remember when the internet was so disruptive, it was going to make everyone smart? I’d like to travel back in time and show these visionaries TikTok videos.
healthcare expenses here are totally out of whack. I wanted to get a virtual angiography but the doctor said insurance most probably won’t cover it and he sent me a special study for a simple calcium check via MR. He was guessing the total cost of that would be around $4000. I know for a fact, I could pay that in a nice European hospital for $400 max. Unless the money pyramid crumbles, the healthcare cost is not going to care whether you have an apple watch, or a mobile cat-scan around your chest.
It’s amazing how many podiatrists own labs that make orthotics and how many orthopedists own an MRI company. And the doctors that go to assisted living own ambulance businesses and use those to send their patients out for tests. Obamacare did nothing to address conflicts of interests like those.
Nothing medical is worse than the American legal system.
More conflicts of interests than anything in medicine ever.
It’s amazing how many podiatrists own labs that make orthotics and how many orthopedists own an MRI company. And the doctors that go to assisted living own ambulance businesses and use those to send their patients out for tests. Obamacare did nothing to address conflicts of interests like those.
It’s also amazing how poorly designed and functional those orthotics they make are. A company like Lynco or Powerstep develops far superior orthotics made of better materials for a fraction of the price.
Njtownhomer , yeah unfortunately the honest medical professionals get screwed so bad they give up and go to the dark side. Ie just reviewed an ein fir a surgery fir an independent doc. 2 hour surgery plus 1 hour before for setup, plus 30 minutes after fir recovery with patient. Reimbursement was $225. Add in keeping an office staff sitting there answering the phone while you are out and you are loosing money.
Krustez is no joke – their mixes are the bomb.
“Remember when the internet was so disruptive, it was going to make everyone smart? I’d like to travel back in time and show these visionaries TikTok videos.”
That’s pretty funny.
Now here’s my question for you BRT? If learning remotely is so damn crappy for so many students? Then, why are nearly all of the Master’s degrees I’ve seen educators possess from online colleges?
“[smaller packaging] has been happening since 08. My big quibble has always been “Super Pretzels”.”
For me it’s ice cream bars. Ha*gen D*z is likely half its size from ’08 plus twice the price….
Re: Inflation….To discuss inflation one first needs to define the measure. Eliminating or changing consumption because consumption becomes too expensive (eg, going from car ownership to effectively taxi) is not deflationary, it is activity (substitution) in reaction to inflation….To evaluate inflation take a basket of goods and measure….
Healthcare, aggregate spend and at consumer level up significantly. New therapies aren’t deflationary, they are inflationary….they cost more in the aggregate and create higher out-of-pockets (costs) at the individual consumer level. Low tech in healthcare is what is actually deflationary, ie. statins going from prescr1pt1on to gener1c and $115 a month to $9 a month….
Transport, aggregate spend and at consumer level up. Partly again due to tech….all those sensors that chirp for you so you don’t need to look in your mirror and the little motors that after a century of driving are now somehow needed to move your headlight when you turn have contributed to massive inflation in automobile costs….likewise, public transport costs (NJTransit, etc) continue to increase….the thin slice of taxi costs have likely gone down thanks to rideshare companies….
Food, we’ve covered between cost and size (cost per unit)…
Education? Even less in need of discussion than housing….
Those with housing and clothing are the main components. Cover close to 90% of consumer expenditures. Overwhelmingly up. What doesn’t the Fed see? Mostly, they use the GDP deflator (macro top down measure) which is different from CPI (basket of goods bottom up analysis). Also, in the core category of housing there is imputed rent which has been a hot button for years as to how accurately it measures housing costs…..
The reality as anyone spending real money has seen….you’re paying more for your goods and services….and it’s not decreasing.
Fcuking filter, had to break one post into like 20 to get it through…
Think I found the banned word…
guessing?
eh, ‘guess’ not…..fcuk it.
Yes, the Government and Fed using all kinds of “logic” with substitution and other hedonistic adjustments completely bastardizes inflation tracking.
Also, we should include not just goods but services and assets.
leftwing says:
March 1, 2021 at 3:49 pm
Re: Inflation….To discuss inflation one first needs to define the measure. Eliminating or changing consumption because consumption becomes too expensive (eg, going from car ownership to effectively taxi) is not deflationary, it is activity (substitution) in reaction to inflation….To evaluate inflation take a basket of goods and measure….
Krustez is way better than Bisquick and the former Aunt Jemima for sure. But Gold Medal is really the best. Especially when you can buy it for next to nothing in the industrial box at Restaurant Depot.
Chi, the sad thing is, most BBQ (minus the pork) is probably kosher. The only thing that keeps it from being kosher is the rabbinical supervision. Another reason that I feel organized religion is stupid. Though, and it’s a big one. Faith does still have a place. The problem is when someone wants you to believe in THEIR faith system, which does not allow for other beliefs.
My grandparents owned Chinese restaurants in Fort Lee and Teaneck in the 60s. They would bring the Rabbi in and he would certify them. It was a payoff. The kitchen had pork scraps all over according to my father.
Now here’s my question for you BRT? If learning remotely is so damn crappy for so many students? Then, why are nearly all of the Master’s degrees I’ve seen educators possess from online colleges?
Every one of those degrees is in a fake discipline and just used to game the system (even Jill Biden’s), increase your pay, and present yourself as some sort of professional. Everything they teach in the field of “education” is complete nonsense. All the published research is completely unproven theory. Most of it has been disproven, but they still accept it as dogman (kinda like Keynesian economics) You can spot these morons who peddle or practice it a mile away because they only speak in buzzwords.
If you actually try to do the things they advocate in the classroom, the parents and kids will eat you alive. The only teachers who survive are the ones who abandon it for what works, common sense, hard work, and showing the students you actually give a crap.
So in short, their degrees are crappy, but it might be better that they learn it online, so that they don’t retain any of it.
Bystander my 6 yr is on the pancake diet as well….only thing she willingly eats are hot dogs, pancakes, hummus, pretzels and chips. You open my cabinets you’d think I was running an IHOP.
Lib good tip on the restaurant depot gold medal pancakes, how do you get past their membership nonsense? Last time I went to buy bread flour they gave me a hard time about not having a membership.
Jcer They pit grow that. When my Daughter was little all she would eat
Was yogurt, bologna, and Philsbury Crescent rolls. All grown up now, and it’s a healthy food , organic and all sorts of really healthy food. Nothing processed.
3:40 poor choices. If a degree isn’t accredited then the earner risks that it will not qualify the earner for anything. Friend of mine got a counseling degree from a place such as this and the district said no, that degree won’t work. Complete waste of time & money.
4:16 the sociology of education, the history and the philosophy are fascinating.
JC: Pancakes…… bury green veggies (e.g., kale or something healthy) in there with chocolate chips…. throws them off….
JCer says:
March 1, 2021 at 4:56 pm
Bystander my 6 yr is on the pancake diet as well….only thing she willingly eats are hot dogs, pancakes, hummus, pretzels and chips. You open my cabinets you’d think I was running an IHOP.
Lib good tip on the restaurant depot gold medal pancakes, how do you get past their membership nonsense? Last time I went to buy bread flour they gave me a hard time about not having a membership.
Well now we know why Biden did not tap Cuomo for a position. Smart move or luck?
BTW, my 10 year old prefers Walmart Brand Extra Fluffy pancake mix for the waffle maker. Topped with Costco $11 Organic Maple Syrup and you cant go wrong.
I think folks need to look at college as only quasi – vocational.
Most people don’t stay in whatever they studied in college.
My kids went from eating literally anything as toddlers to nothing. Trying to hide healthy stuff… ha. My wife has tried everything from protein powders, nut flours. It’s white bread, plain pasta, carbs but no potatoes other than chips or French fries. My littlest is eating the best now she constantly wants fish to the point that she demanded tuna sushi last week also rare steak with bernaise, also shellfish lobster/crab/mussels.
The kids also love either crepes or liege waffles with Nutella more than the pancakes, the pancakes are what they know they can get, no school/work means they can get pancakes instead of cereal, a frozen waffle or toast.
I won’t go to Walmart for pancake mix, I try to limit my trips it’s h*ll on earth.
Certain commodity food prices are crazy low, milk, meat, and eggs as commodities haven’t moved appreciably in price in the last 20 years.
As for a return to school, my town in bloody incompetent so despite a gazillion dollars in property taxes they cannot figure out reopening schools. Personally just give me back the portion of my taxes that go to schools, I’ll send my kids private. It’s one thing when I get the services but as we all know a captive market doesn’t function. If it was a business they’d be reopened but because people have to pay no matter what no one is in a rush to do what’s best for the students or parents.
JCer,
Have you gone to RD during Covid? I know at least about 3 months ago, it was still open to everyone due to the Covid food shortages. I signed up using my landlord LLC business claiming it was a caterer. They could care less. Just needed a TIN.
Fidelity rolled out a suite of six actively managed disruption funds last April. Five are focused on specific areas such as automation, communications, finance, medicine, and technology; one, Fidelity Disruptors (FGDFX), encompasses all five themes. All together, the suite has $558 million in assets; year-to-date, they’re up 3.3% on average.
Its disruption funds employ a new, time-based fee model. Annual fees start at 1%, fall to 0.75% after one year, and 0.5% after another two years. “The overall objective is to incentivize investors for long-term investing,” says Scott O’Reilly, Fidelity’s head of index, sector, thematic and factor products. This makes particular sense for disruptive funds, which can be volatile and take years to play out.
The $421 million Goldman Sachs Innovate Equity ETF (GINN), launched in November, tracks an index of nearly 500 stocks—about 10 times more than ARK Innovation. That lack of concentration, and lack of active management, makes this ETF look a lot more like the broad market, with top holdings such as Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Facebook (FB), none of which are in the ARK Innovation ETF. The Goldman Innovate ETF has returned 4.8% so far this year.
The $181 million Direxion Moonshot Innovators ETF (MOON), also launched in November, is probably the most ARK-like fund. It holds just 50 stocks, but unlike most of ARK’s ETFs, it is not actively managed. Instead, it tracks an index that uses natural-language processing to review company filings, identify innovation-related remarks, and selects early-stage disruptive firms. The fund is up 34% this year.
WSJ – How will office valuations be affected by the decline of the five-day commute? Shopping malls could provide some answers.
Before the health crisis began, 5% or less of U.S. and European workforces worked from home. Rates are artificially high today due to stay-at-home orders: Over 50% of London workers are currently working remotely, according to the latest official count. Where this number eventually settles will be important for anyone that owns an office. Real estate consulting firm Green Street estimates that one day a week fewer in the office could reduce demand for space by 15%.
A shift toward more flexible work patterns won’t hit landlords overnight. Big office moves take two to three years to plan in advance and many tenants are locked into their pre-Covid contracts for now. Big landlords are still collecting most of the rent they are owed.
Still, many companies are preparing for change. At a property conference last week, global bank Standard Chartered became the latest to announce plans to redesign its central offices for client meetings and collaborative work. The days of “rows and rows of desks” are over, it said.
The growth of e-commerce shows how technology can change real-estate prices. In late 2016, 8.3% of U.S. retail sales happened online, according to the Census Bureau. At the time, American malls were at peak valuations as investors underestimated how disruptive the trend would be.
We are doing some work with remote monitored at home covid rapid testing, I think this is helpful to understand which companies/sectors are hell bent on returning to offices.
There is huge interest from 2 groups. Financial services and Government. In both cases, the model is simple. The company/agency fund 3-5 day of covid rapid tests a week, a negative result is required to come to work physically, a third party validates the test result every day. The cost is nominal, $75-100 a week per employee.
We’ve deployed across a number of financial services companies in London and NYC, wave 1 was specifically focused on bringing traders and support staff face to face. Easy to justify the cost here.
But there are entire states looking to deploy, to bring every state employee back, from most senior to the janitor. Do the math, BOHICA.
The companies we were working with have been banking on airlines requiring on-site testing, which don’t appear to be happening anywhere.
As for a return to school, my town in bloody incompetent so despite a gazillion dollars in property taxes they cannot figure out reopening schools. Personally just give me back the portion of my taxes that go to schools, I’ll send my kids private. It’s one thing when I get the services but as we all know a captive market doesn’t function. If it was a business they’d be reopened but because people have to pay no matter what no one is in a rush to do what’s best for the students or parents.
There was nothing to figure out. This was an easy problem to solve. Teachers that don’t want to teach get replaced for the year with a new hire. Split the kids in 2 groups, teach hybrid. We, as a building figured out how to navigate through this in the 1st week. Steep learning curve that first week, smooth sailing ever since. I’m only 5 weeks behind what I would normally be at, but removing fluff at the end of the year and class projects means I finish my whole curriculum.
Any school that didn’t open in the fall was purposely dragging their feet. Any school that’s not open now never had any intention of doing so. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of these supers are purposely keeping school shut down because it eliminates building costs for a year and they can use it to put the money in all their little pet projects.
It’s a shame what they’re doing to this man. Why does his family put him through this? We know why the dems are doing it… they’re a heartless, lying, ruthless hoard of wolves but his family should step in:
https://tinyurl.com/ans3dhe2
There will be some financial company announcements soon on WFH, on who may be coming back to the office, and who won’t. Let’s just say there will be a lot that won’t be coming back at all, and some that will be one to two days a week.
I hope he doesn’t lift all restrictions and ban counties and towns from having mandatory mask policies. He banned local mask mandates last spring and we had a huge surge in cases a few weeks later. Our cases went up so much he put in a statewide mask mandate. We our still above October daily average cases and hospitalizations
FEMA has set up a few vaccine sites in Tarrant and Dallas counties to target the hardest hit zip codes. The state has responded by dropping the number of vaccines allocated to those counties by the state by roughly the weekly doses fema is administering
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/abbott-to-make-statewide-announcement-tuesday-in-lubbock/2567387/
And it won’t crash real estate prices…
3b says:
March 2, 2021 at 8:48 am
There will be some financial company announcements soon on WFH, on who may be coming back to the office, and who won’t. Let’s just say there will be a lot that won’t be coming back at all, and some that will be one to two days a week.
Dirty Renter Bailout money yet to be distributed.
‘We have some tenants who haven’t paid rent since March of last year.’
— Newark, N.J.-area landlord P.J. Calello
“WASHINGTON—Tenants who are behind on their rent are still waiting for $25 billion in assistance that Congress appropriated in December, as millions of households and landlords fall deeper into debt.
Many states are still determining how to distribute money they have received from the Treasury Department to help an estimated 13 million renters. Meanwhile, Congress is poised to appropriate another $20 billion in rental assistance.
California has a March 15 deadline for setting up an application system. In New York, the funds are caught up in the state’s budget process, which could stretch into April. Michigan’s legislature plans to approve its portion of the money only in installments.
The delays reflect in part the complexities of starting a new system from scratch and the difficulty of getting the money out quickly while also preventing fraud.
“Right now it’s just sitting there in most states,” said David Dworkin, president and chief executive officer of the National Housing Conference, a nonprofit group that advocates for affordable housing. “The reality is that these things do take time and you want to do them well and not make mistakes because you went too fast.”
exas opened its application portal for $1.3 billion in rental assistance on Feb. 15 and expects to begin releasing funds sometime this month, said Kristina Tirloni, a spokeswoman for the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs.
The state will first distribute aid to the lowest-income renters. It will take about two weeks for landlords and tenants to receive money once they apply, she said, and applications will be accepted as long as the money lasts.
Congress is set to approve an additional $20 billion in rental assistance as part of the $1.9 trillion relief package backed by the Biden administration. President Biden on Saturday urged the Senate to take swift action on the package after it was passed in the House in a largely party-line vote.
exas opened its application portal for $1.3 billion in rental assistance on Feb. 15 and expects to begin releasing funds sometime this month, said Kristina Tirloni, a spokeswoman for the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs.
The state will first distribute aid to the lowest-income renters. It will take about two weeks for landlords and tenants to receive money once they apply, she said, and applications will be accepted as long as the money lasts.
Congress is set to approve an additional $20 billion in rental assistance as part of the $1.9 trillion relief package backed by the Biden administration. President Biden on Saturday urged the Senate to take swift action on the package after it was passed in the House in a largely party-line vote.
An analysis by the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank, found that the amount of unpaid rent could exceed $52 billion. It estimated that the average delinquent household owed $5,586.
According to a Census Bureau survey conducted last month, about 17% of renters are now behind on their payments—three times the typical rate.
Many state and local governments have cut staff during pandemic a
“You need the staff to design the programs and to implement them. Case management, call centers—that’s a little more than a lot of [local governments] can handle,” Mr. Gair said. His firm has been hired to help administer rental assistance and other forms of pandemic relief in Kansas and other states and by local governments including King County, Wash., home to Seattle.
States and localities generally have until Sept 30. to use the rental assistance money and are ill-equipped to build and administer rental-assistance programs, said Brad Gair, senior managing director at emergency services consulting firm Witt O’Brien’s.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/millions-of-tenants-fall-further-behind-on-rent-as-they-await-federal-covid-19-assistance-11614594602
Pumps: Is that your two cents??
chi/juice/3b, etc….
TWTR prices $1.25B of five year converts at zero interest up 67.5% off an ATH yesterday
For the mindless ejaculator in love with inflation while trading against that viewpoint, clueless about DCF, and believing the Fed is all powerful to control the long end of the curve…..good luck.
Left – re: good luck.
Does not mean they won’t try. Operation twist is coming back again announcement is in two weeks. FYI – Operation Twist was so effective back in 2012 that the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to at that time to a 200-year low.
This time they are worried about the usual suspects, money markets etc, if we have a few bad auctions who knows where this will end up, the whole back deck could come tumbling down. Is the party over if the deck with all of the party goers collapses?
lol, do these teachers not realize they are on camera?
https://news.yahoo.com/sacramento-teacher-gets-death-threats-175127407.html
Keep dreaming of crashing real estate prices…dream on. If rural areas are going up, you think they are going to crash in a metro area if offices cease to exist? Wake up!!
3b says:
March 2, 2021 at 9:17 am
Pumps: Is that your two cents??
Pumps: Is that your two cents?? You know commenting on corporate America and the jobs and what people in those jobs do or don’t do? You know mindless drones, doing mindless work, that constantly need to be supervised. You know commenting about professions/ jobs you know absolutely nothing about?
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I understand that most humans are not hermits. The stay at home gig will get old quick with this crowd. Common sense for me, but some people don’t get it. Not everyone is an introvert, esp in the corporate world. So much is based on human interaction when it comes to business.
3b says:
March 2, 2021 at 9:57 am
Pumps: Is that your two cents?? You know commenting on corporate America and the jobs and what people in those jobs do or don’t do? You know mindless drones, doing mindless work, that constantly need to be supervised. You know commenting about professions/ jobs you know absolutely nothing about?
We already had WFH for decades. It was always for the introverts.
Some techies want to WFH, shocker. They were always the oddballs that would rather hang on their computer in their dorm room instead of going to a party.
Pumps: You are deflecting and did not answer the questions. You must understand that you cannot make all the comments you have made about the corporate American workforce, or I should say insulting comments. And spend almost a year raging against WFH for corporate America and how bad it is, and then turn around and say people have no right commenting on the teachers profession, a profession they know nothing about! It is a complete lack of any self awareness on your part.
Pumps: And you just did it again!! Techies are odd balls and that’s why they want to work from home. You really need to get over yourself.
Just remember, most of the human population wants to go to the party.
So you can push WFH for your company as a low hanging fruit to save some money, hoping they move to a lower cost location so you can pay them less, but understand, over time you will not have happy productive workers. They will have no meaning of work culture. No competitive instincts to push them as they see a co worker get a new office. No emotional connection to their fellow workers.
Sounds good.
I didn’t say all. I said they are a minority. Lots of techies love being around people. Key word that you missed was “some.”
3b says:
March 2, 2021 at 10:13 am
Pumps: And you just did it again!! Techies are odd balls and that’s why they want to work from home. You really need to get over yourself.
Circa 2007:
I will probably complete a eHarmony, MySpace or FB page just for fun. What is the text message? I guess I will reply but these are fads and will never replace that a warm conversation of a call or personal date. Humans need this things.
Idiot. Someone want to discuss brain chemistry with dummy. I am no expert but dopamine is “the need” you are talking about. You have serious triggers for it with constant drivel here.
He totally ruins every weekend on the blog.
I’ll stop posting…jeez.
Pumps: You are still doing it! Look at your choice of words Understand! You are lecturing us, many who are in corporate America, including techies. You speak like you have authority and knowledge on these subjects, and then turn around and tell us not to comment on the teachers profession, a profession we know nothing about! Why do you ignore your own statement? You said it. And I ask you again, why are you so hostile against WFH? It should not concern you.
Mexicue. Texmex barbecue. Never heard of it but will have to try it soon
https://www.wfaa.com/mobile/article/features/originals/dont-blame-us-if-this-makes-you-cheat-diet-mexicue-might-worth-guilt-hurtado-barbecue-vaqueros/287-c5b360f1-c41f-4425-93c4-93f8a2582e8e
Juice, 10Y yield blew out last week on the back of a weak 30Y auction?
Twist, what was that worth, 20% +/- downdraft in equities in summer 2011?
Yeah, gotta watch that back deck….
https://www.boston25news.com/news/sandwich-beach-house-splits-half-after-recent-storms-high-winds/A3JLVEDQOBCPHJ4Z6V34LSPALE/#:~:text=SANDWICH%2C%20Mass.,be%20demolished%20on%20Monday%20morning.
The Bergen County Sheriff’s site says they are holding a sheriff sale 3/19 on the 5th floor of the parking lot. I am assuming the emergency order is set to expire before that date and will be extended. Assuming that means no sheriff sale.
I’m with 3b on this one.
I’ve done wfh most days since 2014. Only recently did I have to go back into the office and since covid, I’m back to wfh. I’m not a techie per se and enjoy seeing my friends and doing activities outdoors.
What I don’t like is the idea of people interrupting me or commuting. My time is WAY more valuable than spending an hour a day (or more) traveling to a place where I’m around co-workers instead of friends that I CHOOSE. Has nothing to do with introversion/extroversion.
Maybe meetings can would be a bit more productive in person, but I think well written emails/communication can handle 75% of them.
As for teaching, I don’t think WFH is the best option for children/those under 18.
Was there a reason to do that? or was that just the CFO jerking off?
leftwing says:
March 2, 2021 at 9:21 am
chi/juice/3b, etc….
TWTR prices $1.25B of five year converts at zero interest up 67.5% off an ATH yesterday
For the mindless ejaculator in love with inflation while trading against that viewpoint, clueless about DCF, and believing the Fed is all powerful to control the long end of the curve…..good luck.
Speaking strictly for myself WFH has been, as they say, a ‘blessing’.
Absolutely the best year I have a had professionally. NO distractions, no nonsense.
As for the spouse, she hit it out the park this year at a big American firm. No she’s not an introvert. It’s just been amazing. Breaks by the pool, plenty of sunshine, very little interaction with my co-workers who I am sure are wonderful but hey let’s be realistic.
The Covid-19 pandemic spurred many New York residents to move out of cramped apartments and into other places with lower taxes and warmer weather. Others were forced out after losing their jobs.
They left a city stripped of many of the cultural, entertainment and gastronomical perks that had long set it apart, leading to a record vacancy rate in New York apartments. Landlords scrambled to fill spaces, offering Covid “deals,” lowering prices, throwing in free parking or a few months’ rent.
All that has created the perfect opportunity for others to move into the city of their dreams, and lock in rents that have reached the lowest level in a decade.
“I’ve always kind of envisioned my 20s here,” said Claire Smith, who moved to Manhattan from Los Angeles in November. “I don’t think realistically we would have been able to afford it had there not been a wave of everyone leaving the city.”
Smith, a 24-year-old blogger and freelance social media manager, had just quit her job in Los Angeles. With the two-year lease on her apartment near West Hollywood coming up for renewal, Smith noticed that rents were getting noticeably lower for apartments on New York real-estate listings website StreetEasy.
She got one month free on a newly renovated two-bedroom at West 10th Street and Bleecker Street that was available for $3,500. Her share of the rent on the fourth-floor walk-up is $1,675.
“I’ve been loving living here,” she said. “I still feel the excitement of the city and am really working on building my own personal brand. New York has helped with that.”
https://apple.news/AilcfkCVrR4aveu3Ur8GtPw
New generation moving in…putting their mark on this generation’s NYC.
Hold My Beer,
Moral of the story is “Don’t elect a cripple to office”. Except for FDR that had the guts and intelligence to overcome his polio. Other cripples, mainly spinal cord injury become very sadistic.
You got Abbott down there, plus the 25 yrs old NC congressman in a wheelchair since 18, the last president of Ecuador. In short, they can get off in the romantic area, they become miserable sadistic mean spirited souls.
Cops will arrest you when they see your pinpoint pupils. You know, experts as they are.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/02/fda-approval-eye-drops-submitted-help-presbyopia-patients-read/6834903002/
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VoteForAWalker KeepTraitorEddieOffM3th
So how do you explain Cuomo and Murphy sending Covid patients into nursing homes? Or Cuomo announcing governors don’t do pandemics as he micromanages New York’s response to the pandemic, including the vaccine rollout?
Texas has lifted all state wide Covid restrictions. Businesses can reduce occupancy and require masks if they want to. If 15% or more of hospital patients for 7 days in a row in a county are covid patients, the county judge can order mask mandates.
Essex. I agree with you about work from home.
My commute used to look like this. Get up before the kids, maybe 6:45am. Shower and shave (every day), eat a 15 minute breakfast and out the door by 7:30. In the train parking lot at 7:40. On a New York train by 7:53 (on the occasional good day). Off the train by 8:40am, onto the C or E at Penn if there is enough room behind the turnstiles to get through. Up the steps at 8:55am and into the my chair by 9:05am.
My commute today. Wake up at 7am, shower and dressed by 7:15am where I wake up the 15-year old. I eat breakfast with and make lunch for my little guy and drive him to his carpool to school and I am in my chair at 8am.
Let’s look at the trip home. Leave office at 5:00pm. If lucky, get home by 6:30pm. At least twice a week, add two hours to either the morning or evening commute.
My commute home today. At 5:00pm I get up from my desk and make dinner which we at between 5:30 and 6pm. We all eat dinner together now. In the old days, either Gator or I would invariably be stuck at work or in a fukced up commute and would eat a cold dinner alone later.
In my home there are two other full time employees and my son who chooses to do schooling remotely. Hardly introverted.
My work/life balance has infinitely improved, even though I work a solid hour to two more a day. If I have to run out to do an errand. It does not have to weight until the weekend or require me to take a morning or afternoon off if the errand requires a government worker to be involved. I eat lunch with my wife and older son every single day. I also don’t eat a crappy, unhealthy NYC takeout lunch everyday. Just my Dunkin’ coffee/day habit saves me $50 a month. Factor in my $350 in commuter savings. $200 in takeout lunch savings. Wear and tear on my car, need for nicer clothing, dry cleaning, and I bet I save $12K a year easy. This is without exaggeration. Those who go to Starbucks for breakfast and a coffee are out a lot more.
When I am working, I am infinitely more productive for I am happy and not tired out from a 90 minute/12-mile commute, where I have to step over homeless people on a race for my train where I will probably have to stand for an hour.
My workplace saves a sh1tload of money too.
Want to know how happy I am working from home? I took 2 days off of work from February through November of last year and never even felt the need for a vacation. I ended up taking nearly the entire month of December off (not really as I worked on a few of my days off as SMEs are never really on vacation), but it didn’t bother me at all. See, whether I am working from home or the office, the same people who need me do the exact same thing they would do whetjer I a, working from home or the office. They call or IM me.
Yes, there are lazy fuks like Pumps who need to be in the office so he can be watched, because he obviously can not be trusted with being responsible for himself. I know a whole slew of public workers who all wait by the clock 15 minutes before it’s time to leave. So I do understand how Pumps can get such a wrong read on it. He’s never worked a REAL job where his backside wasn’t protected by a Union.
Sorry BRT. There are a few good teachers out there. But from what I’m witnessing from at least two of my 15-year old’s high school teachers, laziness rules the day, even in a top ranked NJ high school. Sadly, his Spanish teacher is one of his best.
Pumps, they better hurry up and move in. I know someone who works for a big residential landlord in jersey city, he was telling me they have large buildings running at 70% occupancy, that is a huge change from pre-covid, lots of discounting to fill apartments plus lots of new apartments coming online. It’s a bad time to be a landlord. Lots of non-paying tenants and non-performing assets. Especially the retail side of things, those are disaster as well between retailers having issues, restaurants going under as well as small businesses a lot shopping centers aren’t generating good cash flow either.
I’m a little puzzled by the way people are acting, I don’t see how we absorb the losses. A good many people have been hit very hard by what has happened, how will that not be felt through the economy? It won’t take much to pull us into recession.
Nah. Just keep printing. Just keep printing.
Lib what video schooling has exposed is a wide variation in how many sh*ts individual teachers give. Lots are coasting and were coasting when they had in person school and some are really trying and putting in a lot of effort. It really confirms what a lot of us knew in hearts about the union….it creates an environment where effort is not rewarded nor is a lack thereof punished. In essence a consequence free environment requiring the bare minimum.
WFH has it’s pluses and minuses. No h*llish commute is a definite positive but not seeing your co-workers/employees is a negative. I’ve always done one day a week at home and at some points I’d done months from home without going in. I took my job because my employer was flexible where my prior employers did not appreciate the practice. Ideally I’d do half my week at home(2 maybe 3 days) and furthermore try to limit the calls and schedule my interaction in person if possible. These phone calls are not super effective in getting a resolution.
Lib the challenge is always how you get those printed dollars to the people who spend them. Where is your small business owner getting the cash to buy the new car, take the expensive vacation, buy the newest trinkets when covid has wiped out his revenue for a year? How do all the tourism related business recover the billions of losses? How do all the people with an ancillary connection to any of this recover economically? Unlike pumps I think the fed is juggling fire and we run the risk of burning the MFer down.
Lib: Well said. I enjoy many of the same things as you mentioned by WFH. I don’t mind working until 7:00 at home. If I was in the office until then, next train I could catch would be 8:30 getting me home at 9:30 if no issues. Other wise up to the hell hole Port Authority and the local home, which is torture, to get home at the same time as if took the 8:30 train if lucky. I can only imagine the amount of stress that’s reduced by couples not worrying about a delayed train and getting to the daycare place on time. This is the reality today with both couples needing to work full time. My wife was home when my kids were young and so we did not have that worry or stress. I have real sympathy for the young couples with children today. The old geezers have destroyed the country including the old geezers at the Fed. WFH is going to make many of their lives easier in many respects and lessen stress. And when kids are back in school even more so.
Lib
My wife teaches HS Bio, both honors and lower level. Kids are currently all remote, or 1/2 day remote bused home and remote the second half, two days a week. She has to make lesson plans and teach to all groups. Labs are almost impossible to schedule. Next week they are going all kids 5 days a week but only in school 1/2 day. 27 kids per class and no social distancing.
Teachers will be in schools full time. (pumps do not reply)
But I do agree with you on the WFH, as I do the same
Follow this twitter for a Covid vaccine appointment in NJ.
This BOT helped a friend who is 68 yrs old get an appointment.
https://twitter.com/nj_vaccine?lang=en
Diamond hands are at it again. This time Rocket Mortage.
RKT
Rocket Companies Inc Cl A
41.60
+17.30
+71.19%
Shares of Rocket Companies rallied more than 70% on Tuesday in a surprising move on no apparent new news. The online mortgage provider currently has large short bets placed against it by hedge funds and appears to have garnered some bullish interest from day traders on Reddit’s infamous WallStreetBets.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/02/shares-of-rocket-companies-a-large-short-target-by-hedge-funds-jump-more-than-20percent-.html
The year I worked in NYC was brutal. Pre-9/11 Tech IPO – it was the brass ring.
I wanted it pretty badly and sometimes would be on that last train out to Jersey!
Man that was wild. Pre-child… work work work. Big clients pouring through the door asking “what do we do…?” CIOs, CEOs we were hot sh*t. I distinctly remember having lunch with my friend (ex-IBMer) who I had gotten a job there. We were eating at a gulf coast style restaurant with the great view of the Empire State Building. I had a very very strange feeling that THIS was as good as it was going to get. Later that month tech crashed and our stock went from $60 a share to .37…where it was acquired by Omnicom.
WSB and historical perspective . . .
If I understand correctly, during the dotcom bubble in the late 1990’s, yahoo finance message boards were hot and it was possible to profitably trade around all the pump and dumps.
So, this trading opportunity is back with WSB. What’s old is new again. I’ve made money on GME, BB, SLV, mj stocks, and now RKT. Some guy on WSB made $181k in four hours this afternoon on RKT options. To the guys who were living through the dotcom bubble and saw this before . . . how does this end?
My expectation is that I suppose WSB works until it doesn’t. It is a good indicator for where volatility might appear next and provides some short-term gains potential. But, I suppose eventually the gain time windows get shorter and shorter each time it works out. Wall Street figures out how to trade against the wave of retail more quickly and effectively. And, all of these pumps are premised, in part, on bagholders among the WSB hordes. So, shorter time windows for gains, Wall Street frontruns retail more effectively and exits more quickly, and evenutally more and more retail bagholders keep getting burned by holding too long so they get disillusioned. Right? Or, am I seeing this all wrong?
In the meantime, one could use the “trading portion” of his holdings (obviously, not touching the long-term holdings of low-cost index funds) to keep looking for quick trades in and out of RKT because it might still pump for another day? Enjoy it while it lasts, but manage risk and understand any of this stuff can crash at any moment? Sorry for the long post.
Yahoo boards were Epic. Cannot believe they took them down.
My firm at the time actually designed Yahoo’s front end.
F-ckedCompany was the best read !
Texas governor lifts mask mandate and allows businesses to open at 100% capacity, despite health officials’ warnings
When Does Governor Cuomo come out a a gay woman of color?
I still automatically type in finance.yahoo.com when I’m looking for something stocks related. Forums were epic.
crushed,
I haven’t been able to read through it post GME. It was basically converted into GME bagholders. I guess if you have the ability to sift through it all, there are still opportunities here and there.
I still type in sports.espn.go.com going for sports
I told you, don’t trust a cripple politicians not to be sadistic when he can’t feel his johnson.
About Murphy, Cuomo and nursing homes. What is the issue?. I love the results, nursing home cleared of demented baby boomers using up Medicare and Medicaid. Those budgets are now in way better shape. A dollar spent on Medicaid for a child is worth 1000x more than spent on a demented boomer on diapers asking for ensure.
About Murphy, Cuomo and nursing homes. What is the issue?. I love the results, nursing home cleared of demented baby boomers using up Medicare and Medicaid. Those budgets are now in way better shape. A dollar spent on Medicaid for a child is worth 1000x more than spent on a demented boomer on diapers asking for ensure.
You are literally echoing exactly what the NJ health commissioner was caught on tape saing.
Well BRT,
I also saw Q Anon’s misplaced tape, where TX’s crippled governor Abbott says “Let them not feel their frozen “pelotas” like I don’t feel mines, when ask by stuttering John “What was his plan to deal the lack of power and did he put studded snow tires in his wheelchair to grip the ice sheets.
The tape is from Q Anon’s feed to Fox News. Only Trump and his henchmen get it.
Say what you want, but is obvious that Texans are slow witted drama queens.
Removing masks and opening up is just like de-regulating the electric utilities.
I’m now sure that when General Santamaria let Texans become independent. It was not loosing a war. As much as realizing how lucky he was in getting rid of these arrogant slow witted people. The combined IQ of Mexico went up a few points after Texas left.
Juice
I wonder if we will get another surge. I’m surprised the electric outage didn’t trigger one. Lots of people went to shelters or to friends or relatives who had power. Yet cases are down about 75% from the January peak.
Texas lost a lot of luster. Complete cluster.
It doesn’t matter what Texas does, they’ll never catch the records set by Murphy and King Cuomo. Hold, more sunlight, more vitamin d, less transmission, less covid. Seasonality is the primary correlation.
If 20% of the population had it, 1 out of every 5 exposures is a complete dud as far as virus transmission. If another 20% are currently vaccinated (not sure how many are in texas), 2 in 5 exposures is a dud. We don’t need herd immunity to bring the levels down to baseline like we did last year. We need herd immunity to drop the case rate to zero. I stand by my prediction that we will be rid of this problem by May/June. That’s not to say people still won’t make a big deal about it.
It should be noted that Michael Osterholm feels we have a category 4 hurricane coming our way from these variants but the data just doesn’t show it so far.
Just to be clear. I am not anti-teacher nor am I anti-union in general. It’s just that there are a lot of sucky teachers and unions that hurt productivity a lot more than they help it.
Lib, this crisis has exposed all the crappy teachers for who they are, and they are being broadcast right into the homes of the children they do a crappy job for. On the flipside, it’s had other’s shine. The sad thing is, at the end of the day, they both get the same raise…or paycut.
I’m formally withdrawing my dues from the NJEA and NEA this year. I will continue to contribute to my local. What they’ve done to the country’s children depriving them of over a year of education is completely disgusting.