C19 Open Discussion Week 62

Updated Vaccination by Age Range for NJ:
4/30 vs 5/8

At Least 1 Dose
Total Pop: 9.2m (UPDATED FOR NEW CENSUS)
Total 1st Doses: 4.4m – 48% of total pop (Up from 46%) – Bloomberg reporting 54%

16-17 – 240k population – 44k dosed – 18% 1 Dose (Flat from 18%)
18-29 – 1.5m population – 484k dosed – 32% 1 Dose (Flat from 32%)
30-49 – 2.4m population – 1.2m dosed – 50% 1 Dose (Flat from 50%)
50-64 – 2m population – 1.3m dosed – 65% 1 Dose (Up from 63%)
65-79 – 1.1m population – 1.1m dosed – 100% 1 Dose (Up from 91%)
80+ – 415k population – 352k dosed – 85% 1 Dose (Up from 83%)

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194 Responses to C19 Open Discussion Week 62

  1. grim says:

    Completely hit a wall, total weekly vax doses at least 50% drop from previous weeks. First doses even more significantly, 75-80% declines.

    50+ jumps have more to do with rounding.

  2. Juice Box says:

    Ours neighborhood Karen is anti-vax. Her name is literally Karen too. She is a cross between RHONJ and WT. No arguing with crazy and stupid people. Send out the goon squads with nets, stun guns and needles already.

  3. JUice Box says:

    Speaking of unvaccinated. For NY Cuomo’s plan is to force the unvaccinated to sit together at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field. They will be offering the one shot J&J vaccination at the games, if you get the shot you can sit with the vaccinated who do not need to social distance but have to wear masks. Why only follow some CDC guidance? Vaccinated do not need to wear masks or social distance.

    Next up will be unvaccinated need to wear masks while the vaccinated don’t. That is how it should be anyway. Shame them into compliance.

  4. Juice Box says:

    Have we created a lost generation? High School teenagers don’t want to return to the classroom. My towns two high schools are open and all schools in our town go back to full time next week, but the teenagers don’t want to go back. Data for my town says 43% in one high school are remote and the other high school in not better 38%.

    NY times story today.

    “There are so many stories, and they are all stories that break your heart,” said Pedro Martinez, the San Antonio schools superintendent, who said it was most challenging to draw teenagers back to classrooms in his overwhelmingly Hispanic, low-income district. Half of high school students are eligible to return to school five days a week, but only 30 percent have opted in. Concerned about flagging grades and the risk of students dropping out, he plans to greatly restrict access to remote learning next school year.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/09/us/covid-school-reopening-virtual-learning.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  5. Juice Box says:

    Musk finally admitted he has Asperger’s syndrome last night.

    Here it is Musk shorted Crypto called it a Hustle.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5RCfQyTDFI

  6. BRT says:

    Juice,

    Asian students haven’t gone back for the most part because they realize they could hit it out of the park at home. In my workplace, we have 90% of students in person. In Ewing by me, lower income, they have less than 10% back. That’s the big joke about these Abbotts fighting to allow kids to return. Even if they did, they might have 2 kids per class.

  7. Juice Box says:

    Here is the best skit so from last night in my humble opinion.

    Post-Quarantine Conversation – SNL

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lesTkxvcSFw&t=210s

  8. Juice Box says:

    This link is from the beginning.

    Post-Quarantine Conversation – SNL

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lesTkxvcSFw

  9. Juice Box says:

    BRt – it makes it so much easier to cheat too.

    “Online Cheating Charges Upend Dartmouth Medical School”

    “The university accused 17 students of cheating on remote exams, raising questions about data mining and sowing mistrust on campus.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/09/technology/dartmouth-geisel-medical-cheating.html

  10. leftwing says:

    G0ttlieb on Face the Nati0n this morning. W0rth the view. Vide0 and transcr1pt below.

  11. leftwing says:

    Did a brief five line summary but not passing these maddening fcuking filters…bottom line if this makes it through….open up including work inside even maskless, behavior follows personal risk, at flu type risk levels

  12. BRT says:

    That’s another one. The kids are all cheating on tests, every single one of them. It started out 10%, but the rest of them resorted to it pretty quickly. Then we just said screw it, tests are now open notes. Grades don’t mean much this year.

    Medical schools? Those kids should be ashamed of themselves.

  13. leftwing says:

    “Speaking of unvaccinated. For NY Cuomo’s plan is to force the unvaccinated to sit together at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field.”

    Demonstrating the complete idiocy of government and their total inability to understand unintended consequences.

    I’m doubly dosed since february. I’m heading to a Yankees game. When I get there I am absolutely, 100% unvaccinated.

    WTF not? Who wouldn’t prefer their own private section with widely spaced seating?

  14. leftwing says:

    ” if you get the shot you can sit with the vaccinated who do not need to social distance but have to wear masks.”

    And this is right up there with sending infected elderly to nursing homes to kill their peers….it takes up to two weeks for the vaccine to be effective you stupid preening idiot governor…it’s not instantaneous immunity.

    Is it truly possible for humans in charge to be this stupid or are they just evil?

  15. leftwing says:

    And, Phoenix, on the divorce front don’t forget to send your ex- a HMD message.

    Just those three words by text.

    Seriously. It’s a nice little mindfcuk lol.

  16. Phoenix says:

    LW,
    Thanks. Done. Hadn’t thought of that.

  17. Phoenix says:

    “Is it truly possible for humans in charge to be this stupid or are they just evil?”

    Never suspect malice when ignorance remains a possibility.

  18. BRT says:

    If you’ve ever heard Chris Cuomo speak off camera, the guy is your typical guido that hangs out at D’Jais. He puts on his fake plain accent in front of the camera. Andrew Cuomo is likely no different. Low IQ and ignorant.

  19. Libturd says:

    Some kids are definitely cheating as they try to get my son to cheat with them. I am lucky that my son works right behind me in my office. The good teachers require you to take tests on the school issued chromebooks with the camera on and Go Gaurdian set to not allow you to access any websites. If the kids so much as look away, the teacher interrupts and asks what the kid is doing. Like in real life, some teachers care and some don’t. My son is getting an excellent education from the teachers who care. About one third are doing the bare minimum. Sadly, his Spanish teacher is one of his best.

  20. Juice Box says:

    Uber really raised their prices. I am sending my mom home tomorrow in an Uber, price is about 30% more than what I paid last year for the same ride. I cannot take her because my kids are home do to baloney quarantine rules, but for $154 bucks I am tempted to put the kids in the car and make them do their google meetings from the back seat of my truck.

  21. BRT says:

    The kids will still write all their notes on a giant poster and place it on the wall opposite the camera to make it look like they are looking at the screen.

  22. leftwing says:

    Flew into EWR on a weekday a few weeks ago. Rides home started in $60s, usually $30s. Refreshed frequently during taxiing, saw one reasonable quote flash, when I accepted it wasn’t valid. Went to United club as I needed to join a meeting in process anyway. Figured I’d grab a cheaper Uber there once the crowd burned off never happened. Hour and a half later when meeting ended walked up to the empty taxi line and paid $43.

    Re: online testing, proctoring is regularly done. May not be easy for an entire class but even before the pandemic college CS majors were doing coding tests under strict protocols. My guy had a number of those in Oct-Nov 2019 most lasting multiple hours. Outsourced businesses run them. Full and frequent room scans giving the proctor a 360 on environment. You sneeze red flags fly.

  23. Juice Box says:

    Off to CVS minute clinic for the second rapid test in two weeks so my youngest can go back to school on Wednesday.

    Today is the first full school day back. They are providing free lunch for the rest of the year, anyway they scheduled lunch for my kid at 10:20 AM. They have setup six different lunch periods for social distancing. It’s just retarted at this point, they are learning nothing and there is no transmission in the schools.

    I hope every school ends this nonsense in the fall.

  24. Juice Box says:

    The Uber rate works out to $3 a mile. I can rent a SEMI truck for that.

  25. Libturd says:

    BRT,

    You give these kids too much credit.

  26. Walking says:

    I wonder if they are just trying to get rid of the food before summer break?

    We had to pay $7 per kid for a 2 mile ride for pickup after school. Worked out to $21 a day cash $ . Not a bad gig for a stay at home parent. In addition to our kids the driver had 4 more public school kids.

  27. BRT says:

    Lib, haha they told me that’s what they do. I didn’t think of it. If you aren’t in the same room with the kids, it’s not worth the effort and is a losing proposition. I’ve been fortunate as most of my students are in school.

  28. Libturd says:

    My kid has morals. It helped that he got cheating in like 5th grade in a class which he had an A+ average in that really didn’t matter anyway. I think it was health. Ever since then, I told him that he’s cheating himself (of a proper education). I’m sure he’s not perfect. But he does have empathy to no end. Especially to those disadvantaged. He’ll do well in life, if people don’t take advantage of him.

  29. BRT says:

    Kids are kids. But what’s happened is, a lot of districts moved to “no grades” for as late as even 7th friggin grade. It’s insane. By the time they get to high school, some of them do not even understand that they can get something marked wrong. When I taught Chem 2 years ago, there were at least 2 dozen kids on the first test that were up at my desk going “I’m going to get this wrong”. I had to look at them and go “you aren’t perfect, neither is anyone else, you aren’t supposed to get everything right”.

    When kids these days are presented with the decision on whether or not to cheat, it’s based on a couple few things.

    1. Is it, in their mind, too hard, and therefore unreasonable. They’ll justify it that way.
    2. Is anyone else doing it? Depending on how many people, then it’s ok (kinda like us driving 80 down the highway).
    3. Does the teacher care?

    Right now, you are heavily in the reason 2 and 3 category. Everyone is doing it if they are at home. And, the teachers, given their lack of control of the situation, don’t nearly care as much.

  30. BRT says:

    But yes, teaching your kid morals, and holding the responsible for accomplishing things through work is what builds character and perseverance. These kids won’t be able to cheat their way through accomplishing tasks unless they become a lawyer.

  31. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    1M+ in nj have already been infected with covid. For them, the vaccine is not very compelling. It would be interesting to know what percentage of them were jabbed, so they could be added to the immunity totals.

  32. Libturd says:

    BRT,

    Exactly. Or salesmen.

    I just talked about the cheating again with my son. He said at this point, most of his tests and quizzes are now open book since the teachers couldn’t compete with the cheaters online. Though he said these tests and quizzes are intentionally much harder so you really need to understand the material much more than during his closed book days. I am completely good with this solution. I always thought school was too much memorization and not enough critical thought about what was being memorized. Back in the pre-internet days, I get the memorization thing a bit more. But not today when you can always ask Google or Alexa or Siri or …

  33. Libturd says:

    I read 11% for Covid infected. Where did you get your million number Mr. Goat?

  34. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    G00gled for nj total covid cases. Late teens, 20 somethings, urban areas that have herd immunity, the vaccine is a tough sell.

  35. Libturd says:

    I know. Though personally, I think they are being morons. I do understand where their thought process is coming from. What needs to be conveyed is the same thing with the regular flu vaccine. Even though it’s not guaranteed to eliminate the possibility of getting it, it does still make it nearly impossible to get killed by it if you do get it. It is already proven that the regular flu shot, even on years where they get the strain wrong, still reduces the impact of the flu (if you get it) by over 50%. If you’ve ever had the flu, it’s horribly debilitating. Until Covid is eliminated, which may be never, the vaccine will eliminate your chance of dying and nearly eliminate your chance of getting it in the first place. Versus the miniscule chance that there are long-term negative side effects, I think it’s a no-brainer.

  36. Bystander says:

    Per Bloomberg, its bad and getting worse folks. CEOs will say its under control, talk about moving work other locations, or not comment at all. When you do as many interviews with Indian candidates as I do, you can see how many companies rely on India exclusivley for operations. Ever hear of Oregon Mutual Insurace? Neither did I but I interviewed India dev lead responsible for building their claim and payment processing software two weeks ago. Everyone is there..everyone

    “About 8,300 miles east of Wall Street, on a stretch of Bangalore’s Outer Ring Road, sits what was once the heart of the global financial industry’s back office.
    Before the pandemic, this cluster of glass-and-steel towers housed thousands of employees at firms like Goldman Sachs and UBS Group AG who played critical roles in everything from risk management to customer service and compliance.
    Now the buildings are eerily empty. And with case counts soaring across Bangalore and much of India, work-from-home arrangements that have sustained Wall Street’s back-office operations for months are coming under intense strain. A growing number of employees are either sick or scrambling to find critical medical supplies such as oxygen for relatives or friends.
    Standard Chartered said last week that about 800 of its 20,000 staffers in India were infected. As many as 25 per cent of employees in some teams at UBS are absent, said an executive at the firm who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of losing his job. At Wells Fargo & Co.’s offices in Bangalore and Hyderabad, work on co-branded cards, balance transfers and reward programmes is running behind schedule, an executive said.
    While banks have so far avoided major disruptions by shifting tasks to other offshore hubs,
    India’s Covid-19 crisis has exposed a little discussed vulnerability for companies that have spent decades outsourcing functions to the country.
    India’s outbreak is intensifying even as vaccinations fuel economic recoveries in other parts of the world, heightening fears of a back-office bottleneck at a time when Wall Street firms have rarely been busier.
    “This is not a local, India-only problem, this is a global crisis,” said D.D. Mishra, senior director analyst at researcher Gartner. The current wave will be “significantly bigger” and organisations with India-based staff “will need to take action to plan for and mitigate if needed”, Mishra and his colleagues wrote in a note last week.
    Nasscom, the key lobby group for India’s US$194 billion outsourcing industry and its almost 5 million employees, has downplayed the threat to operations. But Mishra and fellow analysts at Gartner say they’re fielding a daily flood of calls from anxious global clients asking about the Covid-19 situation.
    India reported another record daily rise in coronavirus infections, 414,188, on Friday, bringing total new cases for the week to 1.57 million. Deaths rose by 3,915 to 234,083.
    The state of Karnataka, whose capital is Bangalore, reported almost 50,000 new cases for a second straight day, with 30 per cent of all tests throwing up a positive result.
    Experts have warned the crisis has the potential to worsen in the coming weeks, with one model predicting as many as 1,018,879 deaths by the end of July, quadrupling from the current official count of 234,083. A model prepared by government advisers suggests the wave could peak in the coming days, but the group’s projections have been changing and were wrong last month.
    Public Health England said on Friday that coronavirus strain B.1.617.2, which was first identified in India, would be classified as a variant of concern due to evidence it was more transmissible.
    “There is currently insufficient evidence to indicate that any of the variants recently detected in India cause more severe disease or render the vaccines currently deployed any less effective,” PHE said in a statement.
    In Bangalore, Delhi and Mumbai, the three main bases for the financial giants’ operations, infection rates have reached such alarming levels that local governments have ordered stringent restrictions on movement.
    While the crisis has hit swathes of the nation’s US$2.9 trillion economy, the latest wave has notably affected the twenty-something segment of the population that dominates outsourcing companies and is hard to replace. Most of them are English-speaking, technically skilled workers.
    For now, back-office units are marshalling part-time workers or asking employees to perform multiple roles and reassigning staff to make up for those who are absent. They are scheduling overtime, deferring low-priority projects and conducting pandemic continuity planning exercises for multiple locations should the virus wave intensify.
    A Wells Fargo employee said some work is getting transferred to the Philippines, where staff is working overnight shifts to pick up the slack. The San Francisco-based bank employs about 35,000 workers in India to help process car, home and personal loans, make collections, and assist customers who need to open, update or close their bank accounts. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment.
    An employee at UBS said that with many of the bank’s 8,000 staff in Mumbai, Pune and Hyderabad absent, work is being shipped to centres such as Poland. The Swiss bank’s workers in India handle trade settlement, transaction reporting, investment banking support and wealth management. Many of the tasks require same-day or next-day turnarounds. A UBS representative didn’t respond to a request for comment.
    With uncertainty surrounding how soon the Indian government will contain the crisis, one executive who asked not to be identified likened the situation to flying blind without any idea how many employees will be affected from one week to the next.
    “We are looking carefully at how we can rebalance loads,” Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters said on an earnings call last week, noting that some work has been routed to Kuala Lumpur, Tianjin and Warsaw. “In any case, we think we are very well provided for.”
    Barclays CEO Jes Staley said some functions were shifted to the UK from India. Call volumes have increased and people are distressed, he said, adding that signs of pressure was something to watch for. The bank has 20,000 employees in India.
    Last year, when a sudden lockdown ordered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi saw these banks scrambling to keep their operations running, the European Banking Authority said the push to outsource support functions “exposed these banks to operational risks.”
    After asking their employees to work from home en masse last year, most of them have continued to operate at near 100 per cent work-from-home levels. NatWest’s workforce in Bangalore, Delhi and the southern city of Chennai – accounting for a fifth of its global total – is completely set up to work from home.
    Similarly, thousands of Goldman employees are working from home, doing high-end business tasks such as risk modelling, accounting compliance and app building. A representative for the bank said workflows can be absorbed by the wider team if needed and there’s been no material impact so far.
    Citigroup said there’s currently no significant disruption, while Deutsche Bank said employees were working seamlessly from home. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. detailed relief efforts they are undertaking, but didn’t elaborate on the impact on their operations. Last week, HSBC CEO Noel Quinn said he’s “watching it closely” and ruled out any material impact at this stage.
    Besides worrying about disruptions to operations, employee well-being and securing medical help are also taking up a lot of management bandwidth at every large outsourcing unit.
    At a recent all-hands, virtual corporate strategy team meeting at Accenture, for instance, the talk wasn’t about the usual pay-raises or promotions. Instead, worker after worker demanded flexibility, reduced workloads and no-meeting Fridays, an executive said, asking not to be named discussing internal company matter.
    Their size has become a hindrance, one executive said, but it’s not clear where else they can go for talent and scale, he added.
    “We are telling clients they need to relax service levels and reduce expectations for the coming few weeks,” said Mishra, the Gartner analyst. “This not a normal situation.”

  37. Fabius Maximus says:

    “there is no transmission in the schools”

    I beg to differ. One of my kids tested positive and as the kid hasn’t left the house in a few weeks. It was 100% in school or the bus ride. Looking at the cases in the school and who is in quarantine, all signs seem to be pointing to lunch. The same kids from two classes shared a lunch table every day.

    Kid is mostly asymptomatic. Complained of a sore throat and a bit of congestion. No fever or cough. We thought it was allergies and were surprised by the positive result. Everyone else in the house has tested negative so far. The other kids go for retests today.

  38. BRT says:

    If there’s lunch at the same table, transmission is likely occurring in the school. We’ve ran school all year with no lunch, and through contract tracing, 0% transmission in school. Plenty of transmission via sports and basement parties though.

    In the end, it shouldn’t matter anymore. Their parents should all be vaccinated and they get a headache at worst 99.9% of the time.

  39. Sean Murphy says:

    NJ Covid dashboard says 880,560 cases as of yesterday with a positive PCR test. There is another number 127,334 for antigen tests. No idea what the overlap there is. So 1,007,894 confirmed cases. They has to be another what another million more that did not test because they were asymptomatic.

    At this point we are seeing less than a thousand cases a day. 673 PCR and 152 antigen. Once it drops a bit further we should be able to drop the masks.

    Fauci however has set the bar high 10,000 cases a day nationally. He was on Stephanopoulo show yesterday. We may never see cases drop that low, there is bound to be push back in the next month or so as they aren’t wearing masks in allot of other countries.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Too bad he is in the minority, not the majority.

    The cyber attack making you pay more for gas…our society is filled with bad people.

    They are vampires who suck the life out of the good. Why do you think you hate big corporations and govt so much? It’s filled with bad people who suck the life out of any good people who get in their way.

    Libturd says:
    May 10, 2021 at 8:57 am
    My kid has morals. It helped that he got cheating in like 5th grade in a class which he had an A+ average in that really didn’t matter anyway. I think it was health. Ever since then, I told him that he’s cheating himself (of a proper education). I’m sure he’s not perfect. But he does have empathy to no end. Especially to those disadvantaged. He’ll do well in life, if people don’t take advantage of him.

  41. BRT says:

    You know what might help alleviate supply in such events? Maybe another pipeline.

  42. Juice Box says:

    Ransomware was not really a cyber attack. The media needs to do a better job reporting this. The scammers want money, they are not attacking a countries infrastructure that pipeline company needs to do a better job of securing their networks and training their employees as it can happen to anyone. There simply is a large criminal ecosystem trying everyway possible to extort Americans and get dollars.

  43. Libturd says:

    BRT. I said the same thing last night, during the news.

    As for it spreading in school. The masks help. You can’t eat lunch with a mask on. Eating together is high risk.

  44. Libturd says:

    What is the safest way to short crypto?

  45. Libturd says:

    Left,

    I may take you up on that options lesson. When the crypto panic starts, it’s going to drop like no other investment ever did before since it’s not backed by anything and nearly completely retail.

  46. grim says:

    Nobody is going to backstop the crypto crash. Fed don’t care, the IBs don’t care. Retail investor is going to learn full force that nobody is protecting them. No circuit breakers, no FDIC, no recourse when exchanges and wallets fail.

  47. Juice Box says:

    Legit would be CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. There isn’t anything else out there for any other crypto hustle like DOGE. Check and see if your investment platform even allows it, it looks to be thinly traded as most Investment Banks are a firm NO on crypto.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies.html#explore-our-cryptocurrency-products

    There are Bookies in Europe taking action on all kinds of coins as well.

  48. Juice Box says:

    I keep reminding people of where the money goes. Follow the money. Sure there are successful traders buying and selling coins on these other platforms like Coinbase, but reality is these coins were mined years ago when it was cheap and easy to do so. Many of these wallets are sitting on billions and billions of coins they already mined. We do know about 70% of the mining happened already in China. Those Chinese miners there love your dollars and are now living what I am sure is very extravagant lifestyles on on all of the dollars that keep flowing to them now. That money is going to them and they are giving you an encrypted key that really will be worthless one day. It’s only a matter of time, but hey it’s different this time. Just ask all of the crypto hustling kids out there, the level of cognitive dissonance coming from them now is way worse than anything the 2007 housing bubble could have ever hoped for.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The guy from the Bank of England said it straight out.. prepare to lose it all.

    Libturd says:
    May 10, 2021 at 10:18 am
    What is the safest way to short crypto?

    grim says:
    May 10, 2021 at 10:38 am
    Nobody is going to backstop the crypto crash. Fed don’t care, the IBs don’t care. Retail investor is going to learn full force that nobody is protecting them. No circuit breakers, no FDIC, no recourse when exchanges and wallets fail.

  50. Libturd says:

    ARKK is back to 11/20/21 price even with crypto rallying. Just wait for crypto to drop.

  51. Libturd says:

    11/20/20 – sorry

  52. Juice Box says:

    I remember of of the MLM scams from years past, many of those founders ended up in jail for their scams.

    skincare and cosmetics
    insurance
    nutritional supplements
    pre-paid legal
    Success System Kits of all kinds, real estate, business etc.

    The government does not have to backstop the losses but they do have a role. There are always people scheming for a quick buck, and it’s important to isolate and stop them before they poison the wider economy and wreck lives.

  53. Libturd says:

    I remember the prepaid legal scam.

    Can’t believe payday loans, rent to own and scratch offs still exist.

  54. 3b says:

    My Aunt is in her 90s, got the JJ vaccination in January, and was hospitalized over the weekend with Covid. No oxygen thankfully, and appears to be doing ok.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    ARKK is way oversold, but you know this. This is how the market works, it’s not rational. It’s either overbought or oversold. No such thing as priced correctly. ARKK gets beat down on the drop, just like it rockets on the up. That’s why you can make a lot of money long term by dollar cost avging into this fund after a collapse. This is seriously a good time to start dollar cost avging into it. I mean, you can’t time it, but you are getting close to the bottom…I don’t see it going lower than 50%, but if it does, it’s like taking candy from a baby if it drops more than 50% from peak.

    Might be difficult to pull the trigger, but it’s at opportunity cost now. Hard to lose money in the long term at current pricing. Blood in the streets… just have to have nerves of steel to pull the trigger and wait for sunnier weather to come along.

    Money wasn’t made buying in sunny weather, that’s where it is lost.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Money isn’t made in sunny weather, that is where it is lost.

    Buy low, sell high. The winners aren’t buying crypto now, they are selling during the sunny weather, and then buying back when the clouds return. Apply this to any investment…cycles. It’s all cycles.

  57. Juice Box says:

    So a Canadian startup company just hired Space X to send a rocket to the moon and paid them with DOGE.

    Geometric Energy Corp. Look them up tiny less than 50 people. These millennials.. It seems they are not a satellite company at all.

    Best I can tell right now is what they are for space missions is they a reseller of rideshares to space. Might as well be a travel agency.

    So let’s follow the money……NASA gave this company Texas based Firefly 93 million a few months ago for shared payload moon mission, they intern hired Geometric and paid them. Geometric took the money bought DOGE and then hired Space X to delivery Firefly’s payload to the moon.

    This is bad, bad, bad……

  58. Libturd says:

    Yup. This is the stuff of collapses where everyone is left holding their schlongs in their hands while infinitely repeating, “there was no way they could have known this was going to happen,” like a buddhist mantra.

  59. Libturd says:

    When it’s all over Cathie Wood is going to be interviewed on CNBC and will be forced to admit that she made two classic mistakes. She ignored risk and put all of her eggs in one basket and now feels as stupid as her typical investors. Then again, she is very religious, a trait not frequently found among the most developed minds.

  60. leftwing says:

    “Legit would be CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures.”

    JFC, would you like some matches with your gas and TNT?

    JB is correct, futures (and options on futures) are your direct play. Everything else is a derivative trade, analogous to gold vs. goldminers.

    I would not even come close to suggesting to someone that their first foray into options ought to be on futures…..

    If you want an option play on a derivative (MARA, GBTC) some steers are below to save you googling time….remember, options are just tools to express an opinion. There is no secret sauce, you are in (and need to be in) the driver’s seat on that opinion. They allow you to define risk and simultaneously enhance returns.

    Big picture to get started understand the difference between writing options and going long. You will likely end up with a position that combines the two. Next, understand the concept of volatility. Implied volatility is actually what you are trading. It is what makes an option “cheap” or “expensive”, somewhat similar to P/E. Generally you want to buy low volatility and sell high volatility. Lastly understand a couple of the “greeks”, specifically delta and theta.

    With that background….there are dozens of option trade ‘setups’ that can be either long or written. You will need to determine which one (and the share strike prices and expiries associated with that one) best expresses your time frame and directional view. As well, setups differ in the ability to realize gains before expiration and how tied they are to share price direction, eg trades with a net positive theta will actually make you money daily with no change or even a negative move in share price direction. And setups of course differ in your max loss and max profit.

    You will likely settle on a few possibilities…

    Vertical call credit spread. You write a call at a strike price and then go long another call at a higher strike. Same expiries. It will produce a credit (your firm gives you cash for opening the trade). The credit will be less than the distance between the two strikes. Max profit is the credit, max loss is the distance between the strikes less the credit. Theta positive, all other things being equal makes money each day. Customary risk:reward is 2:1 but has a relatively high probability of profit.

    Vertical put debit spread. You go long a put at a strike and then write another put at a lower strike. Same expiries. You pay to set up the trade. Max loss is that debit. Max gain is the spread bewteen the two strikes less the debit. Ideally you’re theta neutral. These are the trades that produce 50%, 1x, 2x, 3x profits depending on the exact setup. Lower relative probability of profit.

    Long Put. GME Redditor YOLO play. Can produce crazy returns but long term expected value of trade is zero. It’s a Pick-6 ticket.

    Calendar Put debit spread. Go long a deeper in-the-money LEAP (expiry greater than one year) and write monthly puts against it on a rolling basis. Neat alternative to a straight up short.

    That’s the Intro Syllabus. There are all kind of multi-leg variants using three or more options in one setup (butterflies, condors, etc). Ignore them for now, those three tools above will build the treehouse you want.

    If you research this stuff and want to talk further hit me up by text. The losses that everyone starting out typically experience is lovingly referred to as “tuition” and is hopefully only a semester or less….I have no problem giving you a dump of my experience to get you to profitability sooner than later….

  61. Juice Box says:

    The stars at night are big and bright (clap, clap, clap, clap) Deep in the heart of Texas

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9562019/Moment-pet-TIGER-seen-roaming-Houston-neighborhood-man-manages-lure-home.html

  62. Fast Eddie says:

    How do you like the way the government “back-doored” corporations into the $15/hour minimum wage? The O’Biden way… sit at home, collect checks and force companies to increase wages to stay in business. Product and service costs are set to launch!! Never thought I’d say to buy shiny but I think “glod” and “sliver” are going to become untethered.

  63. Libturd says:

    Thanks Leftwing. I knew a lot of that, but the way you explained it was really quite solid compared to how I’ve read about it. One day, we’ll get together and I plan to pick the sh1 out of your head. Likewise, I could probably teach you a bit on fundamental analysis and more importantly, what to ignore and what to weight more.

    Quite frankly, I need an inverse crypto ETF. There’s one on the Toronto exchange, but my brokerage doesn’t allow investing in it (TD) plus they want 1.5% to manage it. I imagine tax time will be a b1tch too.

    The reason I want the ETF, is so I can just trade in and out of it for some quick hits. Trust me, it won’t take over two days to make 50%.

    The more I study Crypto, the more I realize that it’s little more than the currency meant for the Qanon crowd. There is absolute no value to it besides hopes it will go up.

  64. Libturd says:

    glod and sliver will probably do great hen crypto collapses since lots of crypto owners are mistaking a meme-based arcade token for them.

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    She doesn’t put all her eggs in one basket. If you are trying to invest in a niche part of the market in disruptive trends, her funds are it. You are well diversified and will be much better off than trying to invest in disruptive trends yourself. You don’t have to invest time researching it because she does it for you.

    Put the hate away, and understand there is value in her funds long term. For the short term, every analyst and their mother is going to beat her funds down. They are doing her a favor and sucking the excess hype out of her funds and creating opportunities aka value buys. You won’t see the return this year, but buying into this fund during its blood loss momentum will leave you in a position to most likely make a lot of money down the line with patience.

    Libturd says:
    May 10, 2021 at 11:52 am
    When it’s all over Cathie Wood is going to be interviewed on CNBC and will be forced to admit that she made two classic mistakes. She ignored risk and put all of her eggs in one basket and now feels as stupid as her typical investors. Then again, she is very religious, a trait not frequently found among the most developed minds.

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t think you can find one person that will tell you to buy ARK now. They would all tell you to sell. 5 months ago, the complete opposite. Follow the lemmings at your own risk.

    If you think I bought into these funds chasing last years huge returns and expecting it to happen again, you are crazy. I knew a major correction was inevitable and I hoped to buy cheapies on the way down with a dollar cost avg approach.

    The reason I’m investing in these funds is because I see innovation changing our world dramatically over the next decade. This is where I believe my money should be. It’s the best chance for growth. Hope I am correct, but I can be dead wrong. That’s the big risk with her funds that I’m willing to take. If innovation continues to grow at a rapid pace, there is no way her funds don’t pay out long term.

  67. EddieHasWetDreamsOfAynAndDearLeader says:

    It’s an interesting take on why Biden took on Big Pharma. Is wonkish but worth it. In short is Big Pharma and it’s hope for a vaccine franchise because of recurring outbreaks vs. Big Global Business that wants a hard stop to virus, as they don’t want more shut downs

    https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/why-joe-biden-punched-big-pharma?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta

  68. BRT says:

    glod and sliver will probably do great hen crypto collapses since lots of crypto owners are mistaking a meme-based arcade token for them.

    I hodl a lot of glod. But bitcoin is a necessary insurance policy on what if it really has made gold obsolete? In my view, I can afford up to 3% to be in Bitcoin. I like the Ethereum network and have been amazed by the design of the products on th.eir platform. The network has real value. That being said, I sold half two days ago on Pumpkin expressing interest in Ethereum. I’m playing with house money on most of my crypto bets at this point.

    As far as inflation goes, several plays on it have paid off very well. XOM for oil. Freeport McMoran for Copper. I think we are in the midst of a 2008 style commodity run that is going to go bust again with a major deleveraging event like we saw in 2008. It’s been really fun on the way up. Look out below.

  69. 3b says:

    Man stabbed to death last night in mid-town, and shooting in Times Square on Saturday, back to the bad old days of the 80s in NYC.

  70. Libturd says:

    Agreed. I am so tempted to pull out now, but the earnings this year are going to be the best ever by far. Once this wears off, all bets are off.

  71. Juice Box says:

    Etherium is novel. Attach real world assets such as stocks and property to the blockchain. That in itself tells you all you need to know, without the real world asset it is worthless.

    I have attended many conferences on encryption and blockchain etc. Each and every crypto Hustler out there is out there to create a payment system to benefit themselves financially first. First thing they do is mine up tens of millions of coins for themselves. They they add on processing fees to get a transaction approved to be on their blockchain. In the case of Ethereum’s founder Buterin was an earlier adopter of bitcoin he mined loads of bitcoin and then dumped it all when the price rose. If he had any clue how big this bubble would be today he would have held it instead of creating his own coin he could mine before anyone else. But no he dumped it because he feared bitcoin was headed to zero. Same holds true for all the other crypto he holds he mined it all when it was easy and cheap and now dumps it on the market to enrich himself.

    You see how this is a Ponzi right? Get in early when it’s easy and cheap to mine and spend the next few years pumping it like they all do now. Many Many ICOs were scams as it proliferated 4 years ago.

    Now they are hawking this as DeFi. Startups offered to pay interest on Bitcoin or Ether deposits, then offering collateralized lending, and swapping one of the thousands of new crypto coins that are out there for another on what are called on these exchanges like coinbase.

    Cash for Trash folks. Look we have created 2 trillion in value and are worth more than Apple! We have no product and never will be we have lots and lots of investors so we must be doing something right! We cannot tell you what that is however, keep buying it we will find a real world use for it eventually and you can be rich like us too.

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That was a good read. Nice job.

    Juice Box says:
    May 10, 2021 at 2:13 pm

  73. Juice Box says:

    Anyone else get the Amber Alert? Armed Suspect last seen in East Orange? I thought it was a tornado alert first.

  74. JCer says:

    yep, it was very loud as all the phones went off at the same time.

  75. leftwing says:

    definition/ beta: The beta calculation is used to help investors understand whether a stock moves in the same direction as the rest of the market. It also provides insights about how volatile–or how risky–a stock is relative to the rest of the market.

    SPX -0.73
    QQQ -2.44
    ARKK -5.02

    Dumbfcuk. LOL.

    Thinks he discovered a savant while all he did was put his money with someone who took concentrated positions in the most highly volatile stocks.

  76. leftwing says:

    Lib, would be great to sit down on stocks sometime. Maybe another round at grim’s gin mill sometime. I’d welcome some recommendations on LT holds in solid companies.

  77. BRT says:

    On Biden’s hit to big pharma, so all these governments can expand their monetary base spend like drunken sailors on everything except the vaccine? There’s no need to give away for free what these governments can easily afford.

  78. Phoenix says:

    I have police reports where my ex, when she doesn’t get what she wants, actually tells the police she will file “Amber alerts.”

    She tells them right to their faces. They document it, but do nothing.

    I guess they could charge her with something, but they are all too lazy.

    Does this guy actually have a gun? Or is his ex lying to police, like mine does regularly? Maybe she is trying to get him killed or injured.

    When I hear this I don’t know who to believe anymore.

  79. Libturd says:

    Left

    Looking at Shutterstock, believe it or not. With multimedia exploding and everyone needing unique stock photos, Shutterstock has been running around collecting the rights to the extensive libraries of failing former major magazine producers on the cheap. Plus, the stock looks undervalued to boot. Not ready to give it my blessing without a bit more research, but it’s getting there. I have two investment club meetings this week. I’ll let you know if anything interesting comes out of them.

  80. JCer says:

    Phoenix it’s a tough situation, there are a lot of “bad” people out there. In these amber alerts there is at least one bad person, they should penalize someone for making false accusations it is dangerous. The minute you tell the cops someone has a gun it gets very serious, I had a situation when I was about 18 my friend got in a road rage incident with an elderly lady who called the police and told them he was waving a gun at her on the parkway, suffice it to say about 30 miles later we were stopped for 4 state police cars, 8 troopers with guns drawn, commanding us to get face down on the pavement, etc I have no doubt if we didn’t comply they would have shot us. The old lady did not get in trouble as far as we know. It was the strangest thing getting commanded to pull over while not committing any kind of traffic violation, we had no idea what was going on. It was only after they searched the car they explained the situation.

  81. Phoenix says:

    Well, you don’t say they have a gun, you say you “think they might.”

    “I’m not sure, could be.” Same thing she did when she claimed I was abusing my daughter- “didn’t see anything, but maybe”

    Its what rats do. Not libel or slander when you “suspect” or say you “think” you saw something when you know you never did.

  82. Phoenix says:

    This in a nutshell. Written by a woman author. But don’t think it’s just about black vs white- cause women will do this to any race of man.

    “White women are positioned as the virtue of society because they hold that position as the mother, as the keepers of virtuosity, all these ideologies that we associate with white motherhood and white women in particular, their certain role in society gives them power”

    https://time.com/5857023/karen-meme-history-meaning/

  83. Libturd says:

    Here’s my crazies story.

    Was returning form DJing a party in Crow House at Rutgers New Brunswick. Was about 3am and so much beer had been spilled on my huge speakers that the station wagon I borrowed from a friend smelled like the frat house. We were driving north on the GSP and we see a car go speeding past us. You could clearly see it coming in the rear view mirror as it was followed by at least 3 police cars. I hear a bunch of bangs and then there’s a huge shower of sparks as the bang was the cops shooting the tires out of the car they were chasing. As car is now slowing and swerving into the right shoulder, both the driver and passenger jump out (while the car is still going at least 25 miles per hour and I see both of them roll about 5 times. The driver ended up under the tires, but the passenger was able to get up, hop over the guardrail and head into the development of homes adjacent to the parkway. This all happened around Carteret. Thank the lord I didn’t get sucked into that mess either as a witness or in a car accident as we would have surely been suspected of DWI. Scanned the newspapers for a solid week afterwards and not even a mention of the occurrence was to be found. I’m guessing it was just a run of the mill autotheft. The amount of sparks both from the rims and from the driverless car scraping the guardrail was tremendous. I still can’t believe they shot out his tires right in front of me. I could easily have been killed in that mess.

  84. Phoenix says:

    Lib,
    Yes, you could have been killed. And today it’s even worse. Brianna Taylor, well, they lit up the entire apartment building.
    Could have nailed people in adjoining units-those walls don’t block sound let alone bullets.
    All for the wrong person. She was innocent.
    Holster your weapons boys, say goodnight.
    Move along, nothing to see here.

  85. leftwing says:

    TY Lib.

  86. BRT says:

    I’m not gonna lie, I’m tempted to buy some ETH…trying hard to stay disciplined and not give in to my inner greed for a quick buck.

    lol Ethereum lookout below! Thanks Pumps, couldn’t have done it without you. You should change your name to Eddie Mush

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ulWjFfLsL0

  87. Libturd says:

    Quite the selloff at the end of the day.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Read this forum before it went on enormous run. If you play this fund long term, it’s not risky. Only way this loses long term is if innovations stops being so disruptive. I don’t see that happening in the next 10 years.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/iabwxw/how_does_arkk_perform_if_you_remove_tsla_and_sq/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=post_body

    leftwing says:
    May 10, 2021 at 2:54 pm
    definition/ beta: The beta calculation is used to help investors understand whether a stock moves in the same direction as the rest of the market. It also provides insights about how volatile–or how risky–a stock is relative to the rest of the market.

    SPX -0.73
    QQQ -2.44
    ARKK -5.02

    Dumbfcuk. LOL.

    Thinks he discovered a savant while all he did was put his money with someone who took concentrated positions in the most highly volatile stocks.

  89. Fast Eddie says:

    339 cases total in NJ yesterday. Still wearing a mask? Why?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/

  90. leftwing says:

    Top-Tick, you seriously can’t be as stupid as you present here….

    Your sourcing a REDDIT forum? Overwhelmingly the uninformed, substantially early 20s and under, and ANONYMOUS INTERNET? That shit is the basis of your investment?! No fcuking wonder you’re down 30% in a few months. LOL.

    Plus, the actual content of the postings in that thread is entirely bereft of any substance whatsoever if you bothered to read them or your lizard brain could comprehend it….

    The OP begins by asking how to find share price performance for ETF components….I mean how fcuking intellectually lazy can you be? To go on Reddit and start an entirely new thread to ask a question like that? A simple google search returns, gee let’s see, the answer in 0.64 seconds…not to mention it means the guy you are taking advice from has never done even the most basic stock analysis in his life….But wait, it gets better, the next piece of brilliant advice is “I don’t ‘get’ this company but I’m thinking of buying it”.

    JFC…actually, no, you know what? Stay on there and take advice. It is entirely your speed. Ignore Chi, Juice, Lib, etc….WTF do they know. You keep taking your advice from some guy who can’t even figure out WHERE to find basic information let alone how to even begin to analyze it. That will end well. For sure. Thank god your kid’s 529 has guard rails so you can’t fcuk that up too.

  91. 3b says:

    Fast: I don’t see the problem with the mask. My Aunt is in her 90s and was vaccinated and still got Covid. Grant it, she is in her 90s and the JJ vaccine is only 65 percent effective, but this is a woman who basically does not go out. She picked it up from somewhere, and probably a family member visiting her.

  92. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I was sourcing it because it was before the big run in the past year. I don’t use Reddit to to pick stocks or I would have been on GME. It highlights why she isn’t “lucky” like you describe and picks winners. She is good, but people like you refuse to give respect when it’s due. You totally sh!t on my amazing calls on this blog, so I guess I would expect that same from you with wood.

    I can’t stand the people that call her lucky. If lucky means up over 500% after 5 years after an over 30% pull back, so be it.

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Let me ask you this….did you expect her fund only go up? I don’t know why it’s a big deal that her fund is down now 30% after going 160% in a year. You tell me it’s a highly volatile stock, but then kick her for the stocks current fall as if that wasn’t going to happen after such a big run up within a year. Does this mean her funds are garbage? No, they are doing exactly what they are supposed to do.

  94. The Great Pumpkin says:

    One more thing. What matters to me is that she beats the s&p 500 on a long term basis. She doesn’t have to beat it every year, but she needs to beat it long term. That’s all I ask. In order to beat the s&p500, you have to take her approach or you will lose every time to the s&p 500. You need companies that have a chance to run, which is pretty much all she focuses on.

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Otherwise, I would just dump my money in a vanguard etf if I wasn’t trying to take advantage of my age. I’m young, I have to play the etf with short term risk in exchange for higher long term growth potential. I won’t be able to take these kind of risks later in life, so I have to now.

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I like every single one of these stocks long term. I just don’t see why I shouldn’t be invested in these funds.

    “Some of Ark Innovation’s top holdings took big hits on Monday as the Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 2.5%. Tesla fell 6.4% and Teladoc Health dropped 6.6%. Square and Roku fell 7.3% and 4.9%, respectively. DraftKings declined 6.4% and Zillow lost 5.1%.”

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wood was in a tough position. If this run kept going, her naysayers would be screaming massive bubble.

    Now that it has a healthy correction for this type of fund, she gets blasted.

    She was in a no win situation with her critics.

  98. leftwing says:

    “It highlights why she isn’t “lucky” like you describe and picks winners.”

    The Reddit posting highlights nothing. That’s my point moron. There is ZERO content in there. It is sophomoric crap (“I bet Cathie and Elon have a secret relationship”) and anything that even speculates toward fact is just plain flat out wrong and bordering on ridiculous.

    “I don’t know why it’s a big deal that her fund is down now 30% after going 160% in a year.”

    LOLOLOL. Because you got in right after the 160% runup exactly at the point it turned south? Because that’s the exact point I’m making about volatility, those positive returns are expected when you take on that kind of risk? OMFUG, are you a caricature?

    It’s very simple. I’m not shitting on her. She seems like a decent woman the heavy religiosity aside (which I’m not comfortable with in most people). Aside from that I’ve laid out a dozen actual facts – not 22 year olds speculation about secret relationships – detailing how she is out of her element managing a fund this size and exactly why it went up and down.

    The reason is not because of some sort of mysticism. She took concentrated positions in highly volatile, long duration stocks. She was unremarkable from 2014-19 when those stocks were unremarkable. When they exploded up with the Fed’s liquidity dump post-COVID her fund exploded up. When those stocks contracted starting this Feb, her fund contracted.

    Very simple and easily understandable. No seances. No third eye seeing.

    And lastly, if financial professionals have a little attitude with her it is because of this ‘black box’ aura she allows to propagate…and some actions bordering on dishonesty or dangerous. Deere in a space fund. Holdings of a size she will not be able to exit. It isn’t ‘jealousy’ or anything of the such…ask anyone who manages someone else’s money for a living…it’s tough enough to keep clients focused on good financial management so they reach their goals. It’s not right for an advisor or manager to don a mystic’s robe and preach without full disclosure to an audience of mostly neophytes who can really get hurt. At any age, but especially when you’re 60 years old and you do know better.

    When the curtain is pulled back on her you will see the same wizard Dorothy did. I truly hope she doesn’t blow up and her companies catch a bid before she’s down 50% or more from her high. It would be a shame to shake out the large number of her young followers with horrible returns right at the time they should be gaining financial literacy and putting compounded market returns to work.

    Only time will tell, but with a portfolio comprised even after the decline with price to SALES multiples in the teens the prospects aren’t good. It’s not my first time around the block, especially involving a flavor d’jour.

  99. leftwing says:

    “I like every single one of these stocks long term. I just don’t see why I shouldn’t be invested in these funds.’

    You cannot give me a cogent analytical investment case on any of those stocks. Fact.

    How do I know?

    You could not define DCF.

    If you have no concept of DCF there is no way in the world you can have an informed opinion on any of these stocks.

    It is like asking a liberal arts major to review and critique the engineering drawings of the new Goethals Bridge.

  100. leftwing says:

    “One more thing. What matters to me is that she beats the s&p 500 on a long term basis.”

    And another statement confirming you don’t know WTF you are talking about…her benchmark is most definitely NOT the SPX….if you believe you are getting adequately compensated for the risk you are taking with those names based on comparison with the SPX you will most assuredly lose your money long term.

  101. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If disruptive trends accelerate through this decade, will her funds make lots of money?

    leftwing says:
    May 10, 2021 at 6:16 pm
    “One more thing. What matters to me is that she beats the s&p 500 on a long term basis.”

    And another statement confirming you don’t know WTF you are talking about…her benchmark is most definitely NOT the SPX….if you believe you are getting adequately compensated for the risk you are taking with those names based on comparison with the SPX you will most assuredly lose your money long term.

  102. leftwing says:

    Wrote a reasoned answer Pumps but went to the netherworld filter….bottom line, depends. She’s highly concentrated in 15 names (60% of portfolio). They do well, she will. If not, not.

    There are always disruptive trends, it’s how we as a society advance. It’s nothing new. I wish everyone around her would stop using it as some kind of mantra, it sounds foolish. Railroads, canals, oil, silicon. All revolutionary with hundreds of participants. Nearly all commodities now.

    “Make lots of money” is not a financial measure. Adequate risk adjusted return is. You need the right sectors, correct companies in those sectors, and appropriate valuations.

    CW has the sector selection down. I’ve listed numerous signposts indicating she is pedestrian at best on the companies and valuations.

    The concentrations concern me. If NIO bests TSLA, GOOG+HCIT beat out TDOC, and ETHE supplants SQ you’re fcuked.

    And those are just the competitors to these holdings we know. The thing about speculative areas, there are dozens of potential competing companies and sectors currently and more that don’t even exist yet that overnight can supplant her one number bet.

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lefty, you very well might be right, but for my future, I pray you are wrong. Anything can happen, that’s why there is risk. Hope I learned enough of market psychology combined with various factors to put in a good long term bet. You know that’s my strength.

    I’ll never forget when BRT called me out. Made me take a specific call, when I didn’t want to. It was 2015 or 2106, my memory is getting long, but he called me out and put me on the spot. I said buy all the Amazon and Apple that you can. This was a balls call at the time, because they were getting destroyed, and people that thought their run had come and gone.

    Remember that, when BRT put me on the spot, called me out, and forced my move. I absolutely knocked it out of the park. I’m not an idiot, but you guys continue to treat me as if I am. Whatever, it only makes me stronger. To be honest, I need this kind of criticism on my investments. That’s why I throw them out here. Gives me a lot of honest opinions, which you need to navigate the market of investments.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    At the end of the day, what Cathie wood put together is nothing short of amazing. She added an entire new option to the ETF market. She has provided an alternative to the S&P for the young over the next 10 years. You guys can bash it all you want, but this is where I was meant to be. I hope I am correct.

    That’s why I respect chi. He bashed me and didn’t like my strategy, but he said to stand by it…don’t be weak and flounder. That’s your plan, and you stick by it. That’s what I’m doing. It’s not easy, but hope it works out.

  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If I fail, it’s only another lesson learned…it happens, some people have to learn the hard way.

  106. BRT says:

    I’ll never forget when BRT called me out. Made me take a specific call, when I didn’t want to. It was 2015 or 2106, my memory is getting long, but he called me out and put me on the spot. I said buy all the Amazon and Apple that you can. This was a balls call at the time, because they were getting destroyed, and people that thought their run had come and gone.

    And I also called you out because you didn’t buy any. Good guess, and you made no money off it. That wasn’t a ballsy call. You went, oooh look, 2 biggest companies in the world…buy buy. Just like you picked the 5 best performing ETFs of last year and concluded they were a buy in January.

    Meanwhile, the rest of us are staring a companies in our portfolios that double and tripled since then.

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Dear Financial Samurais,

    A happy Mother’s Day to all you incredible moms out there! These past 14 months have been especially brutal for working parents. Thank you mothers for all you do.

    I’ve made the case that a day job is a walk in the park compared to being an entrepreneur. With entrepreneurship, you’ve got to not only come up with an idea, you’ve got to market and execute your vision. Even then, there’s no guarantee of profitability.

    Now I think being an entrepreneur is a walk in the park compared to being a full-time parent to a young child! With parenthood, there is simply no rest. Worry only seems to go away once you sleep.

    As fathers, we must never take for granted how much mothers do

    Social Security Has Become More Valuable

    Now that I’m in retirement planning mode, I’ve been thinking more about Social Security. Social Security is not something I have ever incorporated in my retirement budget. It’s just hard to rely on an underfunded system.

    However, all of us should get at least 70% of what’s owed to us. Further, as one commenter smartly brought up, the value of Social Security has gone up because interest rates have continued to decline.

    Let’s say you are eligible for $25,000 a year in Social Security payments. Back when the 10-year bond yield was at 3%, you may have needed $500,000 in capital to generate a low-risk 5% rate of return.

    With the 10-year bond yield at 1.5%, you might need about $715,000 in capital assuming the same equity risk premium of 2% over the 10-year yield. In other words, the value of your Social Security payment is now up 40%, at least temporarily.

    Please read, When To Take Social Security and the comments for some good insights. Realizing that I may receive Social Security has helped me feel better about taking things down again. After all, working to make money is really about sacrificing time.

    Interest Rates And Real Estate

    The decline in interest rates is also one of the main reasons why I’ve been bullish on rental properties. Although rates have come up in 2021, I still think rates will stay low for years to come.

    Another reason why I’m bullish is due to demographics. We’ve got a lot of 30-year-olds coming into their prime home buying years.

    Sadly, there is a steep drop off in the population of 74-year-olds. Hence, if you’re around that age, please cherish every moment! Your children will miss you when you are gone.

    Despite positive demographics today, there’s been a baby bust since the pandemic began. Births fell for the sixth consecutive year to the lowest levels since 1979 according to the CDC. Therefore, 30 years in the future, there may be a drop off in real estate demand.

    At the same time, the concept of “going long” real estate by owning more than your primary residence is likely going to be a growing investment strategy going forward. Think about all the people you know who are buying multiple properties as part of their retirement portfolio.

    Therefore, the understanding of only one person buying only one property may be the wrong way to think about future real estate demand. Like 1.73 births per woman in America, the buying rate per person for real estate might be 1.1+ and growing.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    BRT,

    I made a very good contrarian call at the time whether you acknowledge it or not. My call was essentially a call for large cap growth right at the time when people were bashing it and overselling it, creating value. Your welcome. Knocked it out of the park….crack!!!

  109. BRT says:

    You didn’t buy any. I said buy bitcoin at $3000. But didn’t. I must be a f*cking genius.

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I did…I put my wife’s 401k into large growth cap at the same time I made that call… crack!!

    You asked for it, and I gave it. You know how difficult that is to do?! But you sh!t on it. Joyce, go look it up since you are our expert “in house” search engine.

  111. BoomerRemover says:

    Is this now just Pumps trolling a few out of the bushes now?

    I just came back from three weeks in Arizona which included a good ol’ road trip to national parks in Utah.

    The government of the indigenous peoples does not mess with the ‘rona. I got a burger served at a trading post by someone one step shy of a taped up Tyvek suit. Every billboard on native lands blaring the perils of not staying vigilant. Anyhow, Utah is gorgeous. Phoenix sure is nice after 5PM. Before then I’m indoors anyway either pecking at a laptop or losing money, but I hear it gets hot.

    I left (to ride my bike) because of the nonstop BS precipitation and I came back and was treated to more of the same.

  112. BRT says:

    No you didn’t, because if you did, you would have bragged about it every day. I even called you out 2 months after and you said nothing. Can’t change that now.

  113. BRT says:

    Btw, it was Dec 2018, not 2015 or 2016. you are 2 to 3 years off when it actually happened, and we are supposed to believe you actually invested in it. It was such a big play, you forgot when it was…yeah ok.

    Haven’t you ever realized that everyone sees through your lies?

  114. Libturd says:

    Boomer,

    Did you do the chains on Angel’s Landing?

  115. Phoenix says:

    BRT,
    You never win an argument with a liar. I know, I was married to one.

    If you suspect this, then don’t engage. With any of them.

    I only try to help good people. When Lib needed something I made a phone call to help him out. Plenty of others have helped me on this forum.

    I have a pet peeve, or rather, a hatred, for liars. But that’s me.

  116. Fast Eddie says:

    A stunning 91% of small businesses surveyed by the NFIB said they had few or no qualified applicants for job openings in the past three months, tied for the third highest since that question was added to the NFIB survey in 1993.

    [ Insert Frances Mcdormand Fargo voice here ]

    How’s that O’Biden Universal Basic Income working out for ya?

  117. Ez says:

    Median pay for the chief executives of more than 300 of the biggest U.S. public companies reached $13.7 million last year, up from $12.8 million for the same companies a year earlier and on track for a record, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

    Pay kept climbing in 2020 as some companies moved performance targets or modified pay structures in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and accompanying economic pain. Salary cuts CEOs took at the depths of the crisis had little effect. The stock market’s rebound boosted what top executives took home because much of their compensation comes in the form of equity.

    In some cases, investors have responded by withholding support for company pay practices in annual advisory votes, increasing pressure on corporate boards. With the annual-meeting season only just beginning—80% of the S&P 500 have yet to hold their votes, according to pay data firm Equilar—shareholders have given a thumbs down to pay arrangements at a dozen big companies, including Starbucks Corp. and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.

  118. BRT says:

    Phoenix,

    true, but we aren’t in a kangaroo court here. Everyone at all ends of the spectrum agree that dufus is a liar and a moron

  119. Libturd, poking the bear (market). says:

    The Nasdaq, where nearly every single ARKK stock is located is about to have it’s bull run disrupted. Now might be a good time to invest in Apple and Amazon.

  120. Libturd says:

    I also noticed that our good Christian fund manager updates the fund holdings on her website daily, but hasn’t updated her performance chart since March 31st. How convenient.

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I said my memory was getting long. It was 2015 when I went all in on my wife’s 401k on large growth tech. It was end of 2018 when you called me out.

    “I’ll never forget when BRT called me out. Made me take a specific call, when I didn’t want to. It was 2015 or 2106, my memory is getting long, but he called me out and put me on the spot. I said buy all the Amazon and Apple that you can. This was a balls call at the time, because they were getting destroyed, and people that thought their run had come and gone.”

  122. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    November 23, 2018 at 8:46 pm
    Tell us when you load up on stock Pumps and which ones.

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    November 26, 2018 at 6:20 pm
    Like I said, let us know when you load up on stocks and which ones. Today I loaded up on Altria and Phillip Morris. Be specific and you can throw it in people’s face aftewards….or they can throw it in yours.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 27, 2018 at 12:32 pm
    Blue,

    As for specific stock calls, you heard mine last week. Buy all the amazon and apple you can afford. We are at the bottom for those stocks. They got hammered. Buying opportunity now.

  123. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Look at the heat I was getting for my apple calls. Over and over on that date.

    chicagofinance says:
    November 28, 2018 at 12:07 pm
    Your stupidity is capable of ripping a hole into the Internet……

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 28, 2018 at 12:00 pm
    I don’t exactly get how apple is overvalued? It’s making a sh!t load of profit. It’s a damn well run company that will survive a long time.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2018/11/27/the-big-slow-continues/

  124. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 29, 2018 at 10:45 am
    My calls for housing have always been to get its foundation going by 2017 or 2018, but to really take off in 2020 or later. Go check my posts from way back then, I have always called for housing to start its next bubble run starting in 2020 or later based on the huge demographic spending patterns of the boomers and millennials. Boomers will be transitioning to retirement, and millennials will be moving into home buying…. and for the oldest millennials, they will be upgrading to more expensive homes as they move into peak earning years.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 29, 2018 at 10:47 am
    The huge coming housing boom will be one of the key ingredients in the “roaring 20’s 2.0.”

    3b says:
    November 29, 2018 at 10:49 am
    Ain’t no housing boom coming dear.

    Fast Eddie says:
    November 29, 2018 at 10:51 am
    Samsung over Apple easily. Apple is trying to hold on to it’s cult status. Same with Starbucks – their coffee sucks but it’s trendy to carry a cup with their logo on it.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 29, 2018 at 10:58 am
    Just like I was going against almost every expert in 2012/13, I’m once again in the same position. I’m still as confident as I was back then, I will not back down from this position. They are simply looking at the wrong factors in taking their position.

    3b says:
    November 29, 2018 at 1:07 pm
    No housing boom dear. Society has changed. The family has changed. Work has and will continue to change. Marriage is later if it occurs at all. Childbirth ages continue to rise. One and done or two and no more. Both parents working where the jobs are in the cities. None of this bodes well for the SFH in the suburbs. It’s all changed. Utterly changed.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 29, 2018 at 1:09 pm
    3b,

    Nah, it’s more of the same. Some people living in cities, and some living in suburbs for the value they bring in comparison to city costs.

    The thing that has not changed, everyone needs a roof over their head. Another thing that hasn’t changed, people strive to have a “nice” roof over their head unless they have given up on life.

  125. Libturd says:

    Stop wasting your time replying to him. He is so unaware of himself it truly scares me that he is teaching others kids. If we just IGNORE him, he will go away eventually.

  126. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, that’s all I have to say. I am so glad I posted all this on this blog. Now no one can call me a liar and now they have no choice but to acknowledge that I made some extraordinary calls. It’s amazing that not one person has said good job. Just continue to bash me.

    Hit the link, and read that entire day’s worth of posts. I was on point 100%, and was getting slapped around as the village idiot.

  127. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why can’t you just say “good job?”

    Libturd says:
    May 11, 2021 at 8:54 am
    Stop wasting your time replying to him. He is so unaware of himself it truly scares me that he is teaching others kids. If we just IGNORE him, he will go away eventually.

  128. dollarbill says:

    ARKK down another 5% in premarket. Cathy Wood gives her live podcast today at 1:30 EST. Perhaps she will lead a payer session.

  129. chicagofinance says:

    I gave this material a look this morning.

    First, left – nice

    Just comments relative to trying to reduce the cost of “tuition”.

    For any setup you might think of implementing, spend the time to create a payoff matrix. Put numbers in there. When I was taking classes in this material, the professor literally tossed together combinations of instruments, and we were required to produce a graph with X as the price of the underlying, and Y as the payoff. It really helps you to understand the dynamic. If you are not visual, then just make a chart with the critical goal posts on price. I break even here, the value is zero here and beyond, I begin to have unlimited losses at this point etc. Ex-ante create your strategy, and decision points. The hardest thing is to eat a loss when there is still time, but sometimes the first point loss is the best loss. To left’s point, part of defining your risk is to also define your loss ex-ante, define your gain ex-ante. If you stick to discipline, it makes blood pump easier.

    leftwing says:
    May 10, 2021 at 12:05 pm
    “Legit would be CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures.”

    JFC, would you like some matches with your gas and TNT?

    JB is correct, futures (and options on futures) are your direct play. Everything else is a derivative trade, analogous to gold vs. goldminers.

    I would not even come close to suggesting to someone that their first foray into options ought to be on futures…..

    If you want an option play on a derivative (MARA, GBTC) some steers are below to save you googling time….remember, options are just tools to express an opinion. There is no secret sauce, you are in (and need to be in) the driver’s seat on that opinion. They allow you to define risk and simultaneously enhance returns.

    Big picture to get started understand the difference between writing options and going long. You will likely end up with a position that combines the two. Next, understand the concept of volatility. Implied volatility is actually what you are trading. It is what makes an option “cheap” or “expensive”, somewhat similar to P/E. Generally you want to buy low volatility and sell high volatility. Lastly understand a couple of the “greeks”, specifically delta and theta.

    With that background….there are dozens of option trade ‘setups’ that can be either long or written. You will need to determine which one (and the share strike prices and expiries associated with that one) best expresses your time frame and directional view. As well, setups differ in the ability to realize gains before expiration and how tied they are to share price direction, eg trades with a net positive theta will actually make you money daily with no change or even a negative move in share price direction. And setups of course differ in your max loss and max profit.

    You will likely settle on a few possibilities…

    Vertical call credit spread. You write a call at a strike price and then go long another call at a higher strike. Same expiries. It will produce a credit (your firm gives you cash for opening the trade). The credit will be less than the distance between the two strikes. Max profit is the credit, max loss is the distance between the strikes less the credit. Theta positive, all other things being equal makes money each day. Customary risk:reward is 2:1 but has a relatively high probability of profit.

    Vertical put debit spread. You go long a put at a strike and then write another put at a lower strike. Same expiries. You pay to set up the trade. Max loss is that debit. Max gain is the spread bewteen the two strikes less the debit. Ideally you’re theta neutral. These are the trades that produce 50%, 1x, 2x, 3x profits depending on the exact setup. Lower relative probability of profit.

    Long Put. GME Redditor YOLO play. Can produce crazy returns but long term expected value of trade is zero. It’s a Pick-6 ticket.

    Calendar Put debit spread. Go long a deeper in-the-money LEAP (expiry greater than one year) and write monthly puts against it on a rolling basis. Neat alternative to a straight up short.

    That’s the Intro Syllabus. There are all kind of multi-leg variants using three or more options in one setup (butterflies, condors, etc). Ignore them for now, those three tools above will build the treehouse you want.

    If you research this stuff and want to talk further hit me up by text. The losses that everyone starting out typically experience is lovingly referred to as “tuition” and is hopefully only a semester or less….I have no problem giving you a dump of my experience to get you to profitability sooner than later….

  130. chicagofinance says:

    You fcuking a$$hole. AAPL was trading at $45 when you posted this item. On 12/24/2018 it had dropped to $36.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 11, 2021 at 8:45 am
    Look at the heat I was getting for my apple calls. Over and over on that date.

    chicagofinance says:
    November 28, 2018 at 12:07 pm
    Your stupidity is capable of ripping a hole into the Internet……

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    November 28, 2018 at 12:00 pm
    I don’t exactly get how apple is overvalued? It’s making a sh!t load of profit. It’s a damn well run company that will survive a long time.

  131. chicagofinance says:

    FYI – impled vol = plug (shhhh don’t let anyone know the secret!)

  132. chicagofinance says:

    left: do you think of options as Black-Scholes, or are you so buried in the markets that you just consider price, exposure, spot values. When I first started, I actually was really helped by people that just focused on the money in the sense that they had pure focus and were not distracted by larger implications.

  133. chicagofinance says:

    Forgive me for being so Neanderthalish, but has anyone considered that the tax bill comes due on Monday and people are selling their most liquid assets (big cap tech) to generate cash….

  134. Libturd says:

    ChiFi,

    The similarities between options trading and understanding different scenarios in the video poker world based on how a session is going is quite identical when it comes to determining risk of ruin. For example, one is expected to pull a quad every 400 hands. I play about 1K hands per hour. If I’ve gone an hour without a quad and I need to manage my payroll, I need to go to a different machine with less volatility to increase my chance of lasting longer and catching a Royal (ever 42,000) hands to save me. This type of math is what makes my advantage play hobby so enjoyable. It’s all about discipline and measuring outcomes and improving upon them.

  135. BRT says:

    We know what you said. You still didn’t buy any. Because you are such a narcissist you would have bragged every day about buying it, but you didn’t not once, and I called you out on that several times without a peep. Because you know it’s true. Fast forward to today, 3 years after the fact. Like I said, if you bought any at that time, you would clearly remember the time, and not be off by over 100% in your guess in how many years ago it was.

    Great call, you made $0 off it. And my guess is, if you did buy some sort of ETF that contained Amazon, it’s because you didn’t even have enough money to buy a single whole share.

    It’s amazing that we are in a market that’s been red hot the past 12 months, and the second you start talking about stocks and which ones you like, you picked the only crap that dropped off the side of a cliff. Actually, that’s not amazing, it was predictable, and we all saw it coming, and even tried to warn you. What is amazing is that you have continued to talk sh1t for 5 months straight on the issue.

  136. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Narcissist? Wtf. Do you hear me bragging about how much my properties are worth now? If you don’t think I was buying apple and amazon at the time, you are insane. Why do you think I was so focused on it? I really don’t give a f/k if you think I bought it or not. All I know, you called me out to make a call, and I actually responded with some great calls on stocks at the time.

    As for buying arkk funds as it goes off a cliff. Don’t you get it? I’m a long term investor! This is the absolute best time to start dollar cost avging into these funds for the next decade. I’m building a solid cheap base of shares in companies that will only grow this decade. I look at it as a blessing and “getting lucky,” and you use it to bash me.

  137. chicagofinance says:

    There….. you just did it

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 11, 2021 at 10:20 am
    Narcissist? Wtf. Do you hear me bragging about how much my properties are worth now?

  138. Libturd says:

    Why do you guys bother?

    Interesting theory on short-term sell off. You might be right. Last year was a hell of an investing year for the wealthy.

  139. BRT says:

    There….. you just did it

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    May 11, 2021 at 10:20 am
    Narcissist? Wtf. Do you hear me bragging about how much my properties are worth now?

    lol savage. Well considering it’s now generating no income from your deadbeat tenant, you do the math.

  140. Ez says:

    I thought pancake in a can was a winner. BTW

  141. BRT says:

    Eddie, if those numbers are accurate, we are already below summer baseline from last year. It’s over. Memorial day is going to be bonkers. I wish I were 21 again.

  142. Fast Eddie says:

    BRT,

    Try any other source, I think you’ll see similar numbers. When do we remove the masks and those awful plexiglass barriers in every establishment?

  143. Fast Eddie says:

    This one has 75 cases yesterday:

    https://projects.nj.com/coronavirus-tracker/

    It’s over.

  144. 3b says:

    California has a 75 billion budget surplus! The wealthy taxpayers did very well in California last year it seems.

  145. Fast Eddie says:

    Gas prices are up nationwide $1.11 since this time a year ago.

    Thanks, Mr. O’Biden!

  146. Ez says:

    12:28 or thanks to Mr Trump who as President allowed every Russian hacker a free-pass to raid American assets. Like maybe gas prices spiking miiiiiight have something to do with a major hacking incident on the pipeline.

  147. dollarbill says:

    Cathy Wood’s market update webinar in less than an hour. Rumor has it that the Kool Aid is spiked this time.

  148. Libutthead says:

    He just said “Wood.” Huh huh. Huh, huh, huh.

  149. Ez says:

    I mean pancake in a can….who wouldn’t want that?

  150. leftwing says:

    “left: do you think of options as Black-Scholes, or are you so buried in the markets that you just consider price, exposure, spot values.”

    Both. IV is all important. I don’t sit around and run theoretical valuations with BS/CRR but trading options without recognizing vol is like leaving at lunch for an overnight hike to the summit in April wearing shorts and flip-flops because it’s sunny and 70 at the trailhead…won’t end well.

    Price (stock) is important to critical, my option trades are overwhelmingly event driven…usually very busy during earnings like the last two weeks. Plus the frequent one-off crazy return situations I’ve posted here over time when price gets dislocated in things like KODK, Musk tweets, BMY/CELG, and everything I did in March 2020.

    When price dislocation and exploding vol come together it’s simply nirvana. Good recent example is below so as not to bog down this already OT thread…

    On exposure, 100% on board with Lib and his statement that it’s “all about discipline and measuring outcomes and improving upon them.” I likely top even Lib in this regard in how meticulous I am…just closed my logs and analysis for the last four months, the file is over 700MB. Risk management.

    I use this little app to help structure…I’m very visual so the p/l chart that’s color coded is priceless. It’s not elegant, you could write it on an Excel macro, but it works and most importantly you can override existing IV manually for individual legs which if you play around with a trade demonstrates the importance of this singular variable.
    https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/3-legs.html

    So, chi, here was a recent price dislocation/vol trade….SPACs had a huge run into 2021 and then cratered in early March. A few had options. With the crash back down toward the $10.00 par level the vol in some issues for the ATM 10C exploded while the 7.50 stayed closer to intrinsic at 2.90. Was able to take advantage of the price collapse to capture the 7.50s at their virtually assured redemption floor while writing the 10s at 1.25. The 7.50s came in by about 0.30, the 10s collapsed shortly after to about 0.25. Booked a total 0.70 gain on an exposure of 1.65 at incredibly low risk. This is also a good example of risk management and exposure because if you think it through I took 80% of max profit even though max profit is virtually assured by simply running out the expiry clock, however, to hang around for the last 20% required me to put 80% at risk because any de-SPAC announcement would explode vol on the 10s but not the 7.50s. Going into the trade I had a 95% probability of profit and took a 42% return meanwhile after the initial gain had I stayed in the exact trade, just waiting for it to mature, I was required to risk 4 to earn 1. No thanks.

  151. Libturd says:

    That’s really cool Leftwing. I am starting to get it. Definitely mad discipline is needed, like with all investments.

  152. Juice Box says:

    Put down the coolaid. There was no “major hacking incident”. Colonial pipeline’s Industrial control systems as reported were not affected, they shut down everything because they are incompetent, and did not invest in protecting their systems.

    They had a common ransomware attack, happens every day all day everywhere. Purpose is not to hack anything it’s to encrypt data and demand a ransom in cryptocurrency usually Bitcoin but can be any one of the hustle coins out there.

    Ransomware usually happens when some moron clicks a phishing email link and then downloads and then runs usually a Windows OS program that encrypts company data on drives on servers etc and then a demand a ransom is made for the key to unencrypt.

    I see Colonial has a job ad for Cybersecurity in Atlanta. Seems their bench of experience is lacking. They also have not elevated any CISO to the C-Suite or operating committee, a common problem when IT Dept does not have a seat at the table and the budget to do the job right.

    Biden is going to tell Putin the same thing the last four presidents did, cut it out MAN!, and guess what it won’t happen. There is a long list of unreachable people the FBI want in Russia. Same with the Chinese, it’s actually an honored profession there. Imagine if you were the Chinese hacker who stole the blueprints to the F-35 which is being used to design for China’s next carrier fighter planes. That happened under Barry O and Biden’s watch when in 2011 the Obama administration ignored the concerns over the joint venture between General Electric and AVIC ( Aviation Industry Corporation of China) and instead has promoted the systematic loosening of technology controls on transfers to China.

    . Lookup the Shenyang FC-31 Gyrfalcon.

  153. Fast Eddie says:

    Like maybe gas prices spiking miiiiiight have something to do with a major hacking incident on the pipeline.

    Yes, it did… Mr. O’Biden was the door way to a soft entry. His first 100 days are epic failures across the board.

  154. chicagofinance says:

    Do you have a tool/or excel that rank orders theoretical outcome at a given confidence level? I am just curious how you decide given the granularity of what you wrote here….. I am enough of a piker to just eyeball stuff, but I just fcuk around….. maybe when I wind down years from now I can go full-time (i.e. full focus) to monitoring a trade….. I am out of my depth today based on level of time to prep……

    leftwing says:
    May 11, 2021 at 1:09 pm
    So, chi, here was a recent price dislocation/vol trade….SPACs had a huge run into 2021 and then cratered in early March. A few had options. With the crash back down toward the $10.00 par level the vol in some issues for the ATM 10C exploded while the 7.50 stayed closer to intrinsic at 2.90. Was able to take advantage of the price collapse to capture the 7.50s at their virtually assured redemption floor while writing the 10s at 1.25. The 7.50s came in by about 0.30, the 10s collapsed shortly after to about 0.25. Booked a total 0.70 gain on an exposure of 1.65 at incredibly low risk. This is also a good example of risk management and exposure because if you think it through I took 80% of max profit even though max profit is virtually assured by simply running out the expiry clock, however, to hang around for the last 20% required me to put 80% at risk because any de-SPAC announcement would explode vol on the 10s but not the 7.50s. Going into the trade I had a 95% probability of profit and took a 42% return meanwhile after the initial gain had I stayed in the exact trade, just waiting for it to mature, I was required to risk 4 to earn 1. No thanks.

  155. Fast Eddie says:

    O’Biden failures so far:

    Customs and Border Protection forecasts 184,000 migrant children will cross the border by the end of FY 2021, which would be the highest number ever.

    There has been a 233% increase in fentanyl seizures at the southern border from this time last year.

    Thanks to O’Biden’s border wall obstruction, smugglers are exploiting gaps in the wall that were previously set to be built.

    Kamala Harris laughed when she was asked if she would visit the border, and still has not visited the border even after being named O’Biden’s crisis manager (48 days and counting).

    O’Biden rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement, which could destroy anywhere between 400,000 and 2.7 million jobs.

    On day one, O’Biden abandoned Keystone XL pipeline workers, forcing thousands into unemployment with the stroke of a pen. We are still waiting for O’Biden to announce a plan for these workers.

    While O’Biden implements policies to kill American jobs, he is kowtowing to China and Russia so they cooperate with his environmental agenda.

    O’Biden is blocking new oil and gas drilling on federal lands, which if kept in place threatens millions of jobs.

    O’Biden’s proposed tax hike would raise the combined tax rate on U.S. businesses to the highest of any country in the G7 or OECD.

    O’Biden is planning to propose even greater tax hikes, raising taxes on capital gains to over 43%.

    Only 7% of the spending of O’Biden’s proposed “infrastructure” package is for roads, bridges, highways, airports, waterways, and ports.

    His administration has lied about the job creation that’s possible under his infrastructure plan. Even CNN and The Washington Post called O’Biden out on misleading the American people on job predictions.

    O’Biden has caved to Democrat special interest groups at the expense of millions of children and families across America, even though the science shows that keeping schools closed has devastating effects on the mental health, social and economic situation, and academic achievement of children.

    O’Biden has conceded he has no plan to open high schools.

    His stimulus bill put special interests before schools. The $1.9 trillion wish list only spends $6 billion, 0.3% of the bill, on K-12 schools this fiscal year with NO REQUIREMENT that they reopen.

    The O’Biden administration has refused to condemn anti-police comments from Democrat members of Congress.

    O’Biden is actually establishing a court-packing commission.

    Despite his campaign promises O’Biden is rejecting bipartisanship in favor of a hyper-partisan process to pass trillions in spending without Republican support.

    O’Biden declared that “no amendment to the Constitution is absolute” when discussing the 2nd amendment.

    By supporting H.R. 1, O’Biden is supporting a bill that would force states to allow paid party operatives to harvest ballots.

    O’Biden has refused to criticize Xi Jinping, even saying he didn’t “mean it as a criticism” when he called Xi undemocratic.

    When discussing China’s human rights abuses, O’Biden downplayed those concerns, saying “culturally there are different norms.”

    O’Biden keeps lying about vaccines, and his administration still pushes the debunked claim that there was no vaccine plan when he came into office.

    O’Biden’s $1.9 trillion boondoggle was not a “relief” bill.

    Only 9% will be spent on directly fighting the coronavirus.
    Only 1 % will be spent on vaccines.
    Only 0.3% will be spent this fiscal year on K-12 schools.

  156. chicagofinance says:

    Do I see some green on the screen?

  157. Fast Eddie says:

    “Gas outages are spreading across the Southeast as motorists rush to fill up their cars days after the biggest U.S. fuel pipeline temporarily shut down following a cyberattack.

    While industry experts try to reassure the public, saying hoarding or stockpiling gas will only exacerbate the issue, drivers appear to be panicking. Both the governors of North Carolina and Georgia issued states of emergency.

    “We ran out. We were out of gas before it all started,” a manager of a Shell gas station in Robbinsville, N.C., told Yahoo Money, referring to Gov. Roy Cooper’s (D-NC) executive order on Monday. “We got an email saying that it could be without gas [for] extended periods of time because of the pipeline shut down.”

    Thanks, O’Biden!

  158. Fast Eddie says:

    From energy independence to gasoline outages and states of emergency in 100 days. We knew the old b.astard was going to royally f.uck up but we didn’t think it would be so quickly.

  159. BRT says:

    Eddie, I saw 500 somewhere else. Still a great number

  160. Phoenix says:

    Juice,
    “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

    Winston Churchill, Rahm Emanuel ??

    Milk it for profit.

  161. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cathie Wood said today she expects a “Very serious correction in commodity prices”

  162. The Great Pumpkin says:

    She is making the case that Oil is making Lower Highs for 20 years. They were clear there will be a need for Oil but each high is getting lower which is clear from 2013. Commodities could crash. That’s probable.

  163. Fast Eddie says:

    And, The O’Biden Administration threw money at the Palestinian Authority without stipulation. The result? Hamas launches rockets into Israel.

    So far, we have rising gas prices, inflation beginning to skyrocket, war in the middle east… is it 1978 all over again?

  164. Ez says:

    2:14 oh eat a diiiick

  165. leftwing says:

    “Definitely mad discipline is needed…”

    It’s what made me think of you way back when you were describing how you approach video poker years ago LOL.

    “Do you have a tool/or excel that rank orders theoretical outcome at a given confidence level?”

    Nothing formal. And none exist that I know of that are worthwhile. If you think about it while not infinite if you run factorials across all the setups, strikes, and expiries that can express very similar directional views there are quite a number of trades you can structure to obtain substantially the same outcome. I think such a tool would be helpful…plug in a range of whichever variables you want to test on the axes and the output is the best trade for your assumptions. Kind of the inverse of the link I gave above where the axes are data points like share price, desired return, or IV and the result is a matrix of best trades with associated probability….eg, 30/35 diagonal call with 60% PoP…..

    For now it’s not critical for me as I’m usually starting with some basic criteria on the option (liquidity, IV) and then since I’m event driven I have some criteria and therefore expectations on share price from a combination of price action, TA, and fundamentals. That gets me to a point where a little massaging of various setups around the price and expectations will return (or not) the risk/reward and exposure I’m looking for.

    In any case I get all the marketing emails and usually poke in to new apps….these guys’ ‘options panel’ on the far right isn’t horrible as it allows you to set up three trades side by side and play with variables to get a p/l. Of course they use their own ranking system for trades but if you’re a visual person it can help.

    Watch IV, I can’t emphasize that enough. Not absolute but percentile. And then keep an eye on vega. Those two items in tandem explain the large number of long call trades that lose despite the share price actually popping…..along with theta.

  166. Ez says:

    Just let me walk to this church and hold a bible up.

  167. leftwing says:

    chi, forgot the link…
    https://www.optionsplay.com/

    Pumps, of course she would say that…if she said commodities are going up it means rates are going up…which means before the words even finished clearing her lips her fund would be back down into the double digits…

    When I advise you to know what you own I don’t mean just individual stock names…you think you own shares in ARKK and you do….by virtue of that ownership stake, however, you are also effectively long the 10Y Treasury……

  168. SmallGovConservative says:

    Fast Eddie says:
    May 11, 2021 at 2:01 pm
    “O’Biden failures so far…”

    Good list Eddie. And glad to see you added the burgeoning disaster in the middle east. that’s the one actually surprises me. I expected all of the other disasters from Sleepy Joe and the malfeasant Dems, but no president in modern history has ever turned over a better middle east situation to his successor that Trump did for Slow Joe. The fact that he decided to abandon Israel and crawl back to Iran in order to try to restore Oblama’s ‘legacy’ is astonishing. The way forward to mid east peace was clearly defined and set in place by Trump — isolate and pressure Iran, ignore the corrupt and incompetent Palestinians, and convince rational Arab leaders that it’s in their interest to work with Israel. A completely unnecessary disaster, completely Joe’s fault.

  169. Fast Eddie says:

    SmallGovConservative,

    Next up? Russia seizes the Ukraine.

  170. Ez says:

    Oh lord you insolent seditious schmucks can cry all you want to about your orange imbecile. But NO ONE misses that moron. Biden has a better approval rating than Trump ever had. Someone call a waaaaaaaaaaaaahbulence.

  171. No One says:

    No, I do not miss that moron.

    This list of Biden’s errors is a bit biased. For example it cherry picks lots of critical comments about China to find one quote that sounds as soft as his little old pecker.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/us/politics/biden-xi-jinping-call.html
    So far the Biden administration hasn’t really done much about China, soft or hard. Though I heard that Hunter’s B’s and Eric Swallwell’s Chinese girlfriends know some influential people over there.

  172. Ez says:

    Never argue with an idiot. You’ll never convince the idiot that you’re correct, and bystanders won’t be able to tell who’s who.

  173. Juice Box says:

    Ugh Crypto mania, the GOAT is buying bitcoin..

    https://twitter.com/TomBrady

  174. SmallGovConservative says:

    No One says:
    May 11, 2021 at 4:26 pm
    “This list of Biden’s errors is a bit biased.”

    Haha! That’s a good one. I bet you think the 150 additional hom1cides and 750 additional sh00tings in NYC in 2020 are just some of DeBlasio’s ‘errors’. And the 274 more hom1cides and 1,435 additional sh00tings in Chicago in 2020 are just ‘errors’ as well. These aren’t errors, they’re disasters caused by Dem malfeasance at the municipal level. And that same malfeasance is now being seen at the federal level. The crisis at the border, runaway energy prices, the unraveling of the middle east — all the result of deliberate, malfeasant Dem policies.

  175. Ez says:

    For those who might have an interest:

    Our team is growing and we are hiring – A great opportunity for an innovative product designer to help drive business transformation working with financial services operations at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

    About the Team: https://lnkd.in/dy3dNR2

    #userexperiencedesign #design #hiring

  176. joyce says:

    Why do certain posters here have zero memory, short or long? Christ, you think No One would defend the local policies in NYC or Chicago?

    SmallGovConservative says:
    May 11, 2021 at 8:10 pm
    No One says:
    May 11, 2021 at 4:26 pm
    “This list of Biden’s errors is a bit biased.”

    Haha! That’s a good one. I bet you think the 150 additional hom1cides and 750 additional sh00tings in NYC in 2020 are just some of DeBlasio’s ‘errors’. And the 274 more hom1cides and 1,435 additional sh00tings in Chicago in 2020 are just ‘errors’ as well. These aren’t errors, they’re disasters caused by Dem malfeasance at the municipal level. And that same malfeasance is now being seen at the federal level. The crisis at the border, runaway energy prices, the unraveling of the middle east — all the result of deliberate, malfeasant Dem policies.

  177. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wood, whose flagship fund suffered its largest outflows on record last week, said in a webinar Tuesday that she sees spiking commodity prices as a sign that businesses are double or triple ordering supplies as they try to restart their global supply lines.
    Fears of inflation have weighed heavily on growth stocks since the start of the year and helped bolster value stocks, which tend to benefit from rising commodities and higher interest rates. The Russell 1000 Value index is up 16.3% for the year, while the Russell 1000 Growth is up 3.9% over the same time.
    “The scramble is more today than what we’ve seen in any other cycle,” Wood said, predicting that “we will have a very serious correction in commodity prices” once the global economy fully reopens.
    Deflation, rather than inflation, will likely be the dominant theme in global markets in the years ahead due to technological innovation, Wood said. Yields for the benchmark 10-year Treasury will likely stay within a range between 1.5% and 3%, she said, while oil prices are unlikely to go above $70 per barrel.

    https://apple.news/AY2c9PYmYRI-HM6AaalPviw

  178. The Great Pumpkin says:

    She is so smart. I wish I could be at her level.

  179. Grim says:

    Ez – I’d be great in that org

  180. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pumpkins next big call…wait for it.

    The world better get used to deflationary economic theories. Inflation is going to be a short blimp on the long term map. Being very scared of deflation. Thank the fed for pumping like it is.

    Understand, the world population is peaking. Combined with extreme disruptive innovation, good luck with extreme inflation on the long term…

    Seriously…get in ARk funds. Not going to find a better hedge against this future.

  181. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Inflation, sure, in the short term. Long term, no way in f’ing hell. Invest accordingly. Understand, huge opportunity to invest in growth tech stocks that have been beaten to sh!t.

  182. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Love real estate, but would rather have my money in ark funds. Both are winning investments over the next 10 years. If you lose money on either over the next 10 years; you are either stupid or have really bad luck.

  183. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Here’s a list of a few of the “Cash Like” names $ARKK and $ARKG have held. They had to slowly buy them 3-6 months ago and now they unwind them the last few days and the days ahead. They were Cash Like, with a dividend AND Interest. Well Done.

    https://twitter.com/dilksjay/status/1392251787759980553?s=21

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