From the Record:
‘A seller’s market’: Here’s where home prices are soaring in NJ even as the pandemic fades
On the hunt for a home last summer, Priscilla Gabela and her husband, Antonio Aluotto, gave up after a month. Bidding wars were everywhere, and the North Arlington couple decided to wait things out, taking a break from September through December.
When they reentered the market early this year, they were in for sticker shock. If prices were too lofty in 2020, this year they zoomed into the stratosphere.
“It’s been crazy,” Gabela said. “We’ve seen a lot of houses priced really high.”
Welcome to the post-pandemic North Jersey real estate market, where price appreciation is the brutal reality even with vaccines spreading, interest rates climbing and more homes going on sale. With demand still high, last year’s “COVID premium” isn’t fading away.
In Bergen County, the median home sale price in Tenafly jumped 16% this May compared with a year earlier. Hackensack’s rose 19%, and Teaneck saw a whopping 33%, according to data from the state realtors’ association and individual agencies.
Some axioms of North Jersey housing held true: Towns with quaint, walkable downtowns or easy access to NJ Transit fared well — Montclair prices leaped 22%.
But some of the sharpest increases occurred farther to the west, as the trend toward hybrid and online work schedules encouraged buyers to settle farther from New York. Morris County’s median price surged by $100,000, or 23%, in April, the latest month available. Sussex County soared as well, led by Sparta’s 23% increase.
“Sellers are taking advantage of escalating prices and buyers are feverishly absorbing the inventory — it’s still very much a seller’s market,” said Max Stokes, a real estate associate at Christie’s International Real Estate Northern New Jersey in Ho-Ho-Kus.
New Jersey Rt back to 0.99 – so C19 cases are no longer falling, but holding steady.
Kids and young adults making up a bigger proportion of this group every day.
Widespread reporting of aggregate data is hiding these critical trends. I wish the media would stop reporting aggregate anything with covid, give it up. We need to focus on 14 day trend by region, age group and demographic now. This needs to be highlighted, every day.
While it’s a positive that it’s summer, we’re really at a critical time where we’re going to define what happens here in the fall. Hate to be Debbie downer, but we’re letting our guard down faster than we should, especially given the dramatic drop off in vaccinations. It’s very disappointing we’re not making better progress towards reversing the vaccination fall-off. The rapid reversal of Rt back to nearly-1 confirms this.
first
Updated Vaccination by Age Range for NJ:
6/14 vs 6/22
At Least 1 Dose
Total Pop: 9.2m
Total 1st Doses: 5.3m – 58% of total pop (Up from 55%) – Bloomberg reporting 63.8%
12-15 – 450k population – 106k dosed – 24% 1 Dose (Up from 23%)
16-17 – 240k population – 106k dosed – 44% 1 Dose (Up from 43%)
18-29 – 1.5m population – 742k dosed – 49% 1 Dose (Up from 44%)
30-49 – 2.4m population – 1.54m dosed – 64% 1 Dose (Up from 62%)
50-64 – 2m population – 1.43m dosed – 72% 1 Dose (Flat at 72%)
65-79 – 1.1m population – 1.0m dosed – 91% 1 Dose (Flat at 91%)
80+ – 415k population – 318k dosed – 77% 1 Dose (Up from 73%)
Seems like the sub-30 group has is hit the wall far faster than the older ranges did.
Dr. Google agrees with me..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/06/21/young-adults-covid-vaccine/
The nation’s youngest adults remain the least likely to be vaccinated against the coronavirus — and their weekly rates of vaccination are declining, according to federal research released Monday.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed adult vaccination rates by age through May 22, finding 80 percent of adults older than 65 had been immunized compared with just 38.3 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds.
The percentage of people getting one shot per week stalled after vaccine eligibility opened to all adults in April and has continued to decline. From April 19 to May 22, the percentage of 18- to 29-year-olds being vaccinated dropped from 3.6 percent a week to 1.9 percent a week. For 30- to 49-year-olds, the percentage getting a shot each week declined from 3.5 percent to 1.7 percent.
If vaccination rates continue at low levels through August, the report said, “coverage among young adults will not reach the coverage level of older adults.”
Israel again a critical datapoint, and a strong predictor or our near-term future.
They did not specifically recommend vaccination of 12-15 year olds, despite approving it. Very few teens in Israel were vaccinated. Nearly half of all new covid cases are now in the sub-16 age group, and 70% of these cases are the newer, more transmissible, delta variant.
Israel reversing course, now specifically recommending vaccinating 12-15, and quickly accelerating vaccination drives of this age group.
Delta cases in NJ nearly doubled in the last week, from 4% of variant to 7%, it will almost certainly be the dominant strain by the end of July.
grim,
Great insight and analysis based on the latest data!
But some of the sharpest increases occurred farther to the west, as the trend toward hybrid and online work schedules encouraged buyers to settle farther from New York. Morris County’s median price surged by $100,000, or 23%, in April, the latest month available. Sussex County soared as well, led by Sparta’s 23% increase.
For the last few months, I’ve been doing almost daily searches on inventory up route 23 and out route 80 west. If I decide to make one more move in a few years, I think I would look in this direction. I can’t see going out to Pennsy or upstate NY but who knows? Jersey, for all the aggravation and expense, is too deeply ingrained in my DNA. Anyway, I look at the the last sold prices (a lot of houses just a few years ago) and the current asking prices and I’m glad I’m not making any move anytime soon. I never rented but I think if I was going to sell within a few years, keeping the powder dry and renting might be a better option.
Suburban-Urban-Suburban Whiplash
Fast,
I don’t know your age, but I can assume. If I was you, I would wait out till second half of this decade, sell, and then rent. The move does carry risk as you can be wrong, and end up throwing away your fixed cost, for rising rents while losing out on appreciation. I would still take that risk, but just know the cost of being wrong.
If you are going to sell, get the hell out of NJ.
What’s the deal with Adams in NJ? He is the most conservative democratic candidate?
Seems like the progressives are hating the fact that he’s in the lead. Curtis Sliwa takes the Republican nomination? Well damn, there’s a name from the past. Half Polish, half Italian, from Canarsie – can’t be so bad..
Curtis Sliwa would most certainly clean up crime and make NYC great again which means he most certainly won’t get elected. Too logical. Being tough, adhering to rule is rac1st. Progressives thrive on doom, turmoil, misdirection and chaos. Keep the masses confused and spiritually hungry, so that the ivory tower (or is it now the ebony tower) charlatans can seize the goods and toss crumbs to the plebeians.
Fast
Will you be serving rheingold and subs at your open house and retirement party?
I’m with grim. If you sell get out of jersey
“All Morgan Stanley staff who do not have their COVID-19 vaccinations, as well as clients, were told by the company they would not be allowed back in the New York City and Westchester County offices, reports CNBC. The banking giant expects most employees to return to the office beginning July 12. The announcement means that those working from the office will be able to do so without wearing masks or following physical distance rules, while those who are not vaccinated will need to continue working remotely.”
Oops..did I say I got the vaccination? Oh sorry I did not. My religion forbids it. I will have to continue working from my comfy chair. Have fun with that 90m commute though.
Curtis Sliwa, we are back to the 80s in NYC.
Will you be serving rheingold and subs at your open house and retirement party?
I need to gain 50 pounds and wear a tee shirt two sizes too small, first. I once saw a rather redneck looking fellow wearing a tee shirt that said, “F.ucking Gonuts” on the front in the exact colors and style of the Dunkin’ Donuts logo. At first glance, you thought it was indeed the corporate logo. I need to wear a tee shirt like that for the retirement party. Rheingold on tap and Sabrett hot dogs for all! Oh, and a cartoon of Chesterfields or Lucky Strikes.
Buffett resigns from the Gates Foundation divorce saga.
https://apple.news/AzSjlymqRS8-pjKTSAcV1JQ
Fast I don’t ever see you leaving NJ. My wife and I have the same discussions as to where to live when we retire. We have a condo that we could spend part of the year in. We are debating going down the shore, or upstate NY, not that NY does not have its own issues. Staying in NJ while taxes rise and the state continues to decline is not appealing, but our kids will most likely stay in this area. One in Pennsylvania, just over the border, the others north Jersey.
I can easily move to Bucks co. PA. I have a friend who just retired in Florida. Gonna pay him a visit to get his perspective on it.
Speaking of retirement -I met up with a cousin this weekend who is in his 50s. He is now doing 6 months of trucking (OTR) followed by 6 months of vacation (downtime) in Poland. He said its busier than ever. I asked him what its been like. He loves California, would retire there if not for the costs. NJ is doing well compared to the rest of the country. The midwest is terribly impoverished, compared to the costal states.
So if you are leaving NJ head South/North or fly out west and have ExEssex pick you up at the airport.
Walking,
Northeast seems to be the play. Water wars coming for the west.
PA or NY is the only option if I leave the state. I’m not going to Florida or any place without four seasons. A beach area is nice but personally, I prefer mountain regions. Let’s hope G0d keeps me around long enough to enjoy a retirement, which is still a few years away. Friends from high school and others I grew up with have been passing away lately, far too early, and it’s rather unsettling to think about.
Hard to take data and predictions seriously when they completely discount recovered infections. Anecdotal, but if you surveyed my students, over half of them had infection. People don’t realize that most high school kids completely quit the pandemic by May of last year.
Fast: That’s where we are leaning, NY or PA, but emotionally we love the beach/ Jersey shore. No problem spending Jan and Feb in Fla. I have seen people too passing away too young, certain puts things in perspective.
NJ just isn’t a place I would choose to retire. It would feel more like endentured servitude to the state. Property taxes are obscene on even a modest property. For the life of me I cannot really fathom the deficits and debits the future residents of NJ will have to swallow to allow the public pensioners to continue collecting their six-figure pensions.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it’s highly unlikely that inflation will rise to levels seen in the 1970s, but acknowledged significant uncertainty as the economy reopens.
While the Fed anticipated that the end of the pandemic would temporarily push up inflation this year, Mr. Powell said Tuesday the increases in prices have been larger than central bankers had expected and may prove more persistent. But he underscored his view that shortages—including of used cars, computer chips and workers—will fade over time, bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% long-run target.
Mr. Powell said that while he has “a level of confidence” in the prediction that inflation will start to subside, “it’s very hard to say what the timing of that will be.” He reiterated that the central bank will tighten policy if necessary to keep inflation under control.
The economy’s recovery this year has been much faster than expected, thanks to steady progress on vaccinations, declining Covid-19 cases and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus. Total economic output is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels in the current quarter, and a variety of indicators suggests workers are enjoying more leverage as firms scramble to keep up with demand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCalyfwLg2A
Fast Eddie says:
June 23, 2021 at 9:05 am
Will you be serving rheingold and subs at your open house and retirement party?
I need to gain 50 pounds and wear a tee shirt two sizes too small, first. I once saw a rather redneck looking fellow wearing a tee shirt that said, “F.ucking Gonuts” on the front in the exact colors and style of the Dunkin’ Donuts logo. At first glance, you thought it was indeed the corporate logo. I need to wear a tee shirt like that for the retirement party. Rheingold on tap and Sabrett hot dogs for all! Oh, and a cartoon of Chesterfields or Lucky Strikes.
Ed,
My advice is sell this year. You are stating your own case with the absurdity of the pricing and the quality of people around here. Think about it – the Gonuts guy probably inherited the house, works as slob in public sector pilfering the state and now is unloading on who? If you listen to dufus, every buyer is shiny and rich but this frenzy is due low rates/NYC exodus as discussed many times. It won’t last. The only question is what wage level supports average 700k/17k tax house (that was 550k/15k a 18 mos ago)? I can assure you wages are flat/dropping in this area for many jobs, not increasing. Employers are non-commital. 90% of jobs are contract right now, no benefits and $60/hr. The qualifications for avg 125K job are through roof. I see it all the time. It is not just my area. Go follow Joe Russo’s Almost Dead around. They are fantastic. Caught them in New Haven over weekend. First real concert in almost two years. No masks, no rules..amazing
As per Freddie Mac. 152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out last year, a massive increase of 41.7 percent from 2019, and highest refinancing cash out since 2007.
I repeat 2007. The Fed Reserve and their madness!!
Bystander,
What? I didn’t get the call for the Dead show? ;)
As for selling, I’m not there yet. I still have a few years. I’ll take whatever the market will give me at that time. I hear you on the job front. I’m in a client-facing role dealing with tech/data issues primarily. I can explain more off this forum. Anyway, we’re in similar job buckets, generally speaking. What I mean is that I understand what the job market is like compared to 10 or 15 years ago. I’m in a perm role and G0d willing, will be able to retire from this current gig in a few years.
Looks like my first show back at the full capacity Count Basie Theatre will be August 13th. Masks optional but suggested for those not vaccinated. The tickets have a caveat stating the theatre cannot be held liable for the transmission of any communicable disease.
Parents and grandchildren keep me in Jersey. Eventually the parents will be gone and the grandkids won’t care about us as much. Then it will be just summers here.
How many others are getting away with it?
“N.J. contractor headed to federal prison for evading nearly $1.7M in taxes”
https://www.nj.com/union/2021/06/nj-contractor-headed-to-federal-prison-for-evading-nearly-17m-in-taxes.html
FYI everyone .. looks like 8/31/2021 will be the end of the moratorium..
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/2021/06/22/new-jersey-eviction-moratorium-end-date-could-sooner-under-new-bill/5302950001/?fbclid=IwAR078QUwNoDcM3K5ZK3Isp4HxaKhRUla5bTYpTSCpRZBbSFXdOs4bSrdJnE
“first I think any reduction in income must be due directly to covid ..
Also I’m sure the courts will ask what financial help the tenant has applied for.
If I’m reading the bill correctly more of the proof of income and why they are in the position they are in falls on the tenant.
Read the bills and check. But there is specific language and dates according to income level and why the income was reduced or no income.
Between unemployment, stimulus checks and extending extra unemployment the tenant is going to have a hard time telling the judge “I don’t have money and can’t find a job”
Again this is all assuming the bill passes in current form with no amendments”
https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1407310844732530693/photo/1
LOL.
https://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-lamont-connecticut-faster-trains-20210621-vlzhth664neyrihbjbodre2fja-story.html
Pure BS..I took the NH line everyday. You can make from Stamford to Bridgeport today in 28m, if you take express which skips all stops to Fairfield. Read article – they said most of gains will be running more express trains. Track is not the core problem. I experienced most issues because down power lines and brokedown trains coming from NYC. The major issue is that they keep adding more stations like proposed Orange and I think three more off Danbury line which feeds into NH line. Stop adding more to already congested line. This is all to satisfy politicians / real estate developers further up line.
Walking says:
June 23, 2021 at 9:52 am
“The midwest is terribly impoverished, compared to the costal states.”
I’m thinking this is one of the most moronic, unwarranted comments I’ve seen on this blog. But as someone who’s kicking around the idea of a condo on the lakefront in Chicago/northern Indiana, I’d be interested in any statistics you have that show the midwest to be relatively/terribly impoverished.
Midwest may be a lot more affordable and there might be the ability to live there cheaply, but you’ll find some nice properties there. If you make “coastal salary” you’ll be living like a King.
John McAfee, Software Pioneer, Found Dead In A Spanish Prison Cell
https://apple.news/AXZBU6W_1SIaacPbOXsYScQ
McAfee was a big crypto pumper and whatever money he was earning from it estimated to be 23 million he used crypto to hide his income and failed to file tax returns for several years. He was charged with running a literal pump and dump crypto scheme for initial coin offerings back when there were a slew of such scams in 2017. They are still happening the crypto scams, but it’s always the whale that spouts first gets harpooned first. His big mouth and lies on twitter was what brought about his Federal indictments, the complaint shows he was paid half in Bitcoin and half in Ethereum to pump ICOs.
“Midwest may be a lot more affordable and there might be the ability to live there cheaply, but you’ll find some nice properties there. If you make “coastal salary” you’ll be living like a King.”
One of my favorite articles. Almost a decade old now. I actually kept the hard copy, still have it, since back when it was published I was getting physical delivery of the paper and they had a two page spread of the map of the US with all the MSA’s stats for top 1/10/25% etc that you can now just hover on the interactive map.
Gave it to my kids, sat down with them to explain what ‘wealth’ really means. Yeah, I’m strident, and they may think I’m nuts now, but if they retain just a small portion they’ll be better off…..as I’ve said here previously, true wealth is not money but the ability to create time and space. And generational wealth is not money, but knowledge.
Be well.
https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/01/15/business/one-percent-map.html?action=click&module=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article®ion=Footer
“Few small businesses or farms could survive these proposed taxes. Assets would need to be sold to raise the cash to pay the tax. Jobs would be lost to liquidations. Many retirement plans and family assets would have to be zeroed out. Tax is generally due in cash nine months after death, with installment provisions for large holdings in businesses and farms.
IRS statistics from 2018 show that the top 1% of taxpayers (more than $540,000 in income) paid 40.1% of all individual income taxes; the top 5% (about $218,000 in income) paid 60.3%. The lowest 50% paid less than 3%. How much higher than 60% will satisfy calls for the rich to pay their “fair share”?
Many of the nation’s richest people say that they favor higher taxes on the wealthy. But they have their limits. “If I had to pay $20 billion, it’s fine,” Bill Gates once quipped. “But when you say I should pay $100 billion, OK, then I’m starting to do a little math about what I have left over.””
https://apple.news/AKdj1JMLwTCqWF1Zz-sYM4w
It is a pity, that now I can not express – I hurry up on job. I will return – I will necessarily express the opinion.
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sildenafil cost https://pharmaceptica.com/
dedicated to Fast Eddie:
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1407809806287704064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1407809806287704064%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnypost.com%2F2021%2F06%2F23%2Fis-no-one-going-to-mention-how-confusing-and-out-of-it-joe-biden-was%2F
Comment from the Twitter post.
“This statement alone shows the absolute ridiculousness of thinking a few dozen people with cameras were staging an insurrection on 1/6. Joe knows. Everyone knows. It wasn’t even planned to be one. And it wasn’t.”
“If our little, legally owned weapons are no match for the big, bad government, what does it matter if we have our little, legally owned weapons?”
“So if the people need F-15 and nuclear weapons, why is the government trying to decide how many AR-15 should I have in my house?”
“Sounds like he just made the case that arms available to civilians are not military weapons”
Here I found Gary:
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMdybHHct/
I have an F-15 in my backyard, ready to go!! Yeah, O’Biden is shot, a total shell of nothing. His wife needs to be held on charges of elder abuse. When the AG introduced O’Biden yesterday, I also believe O’Biden said, “Thank you, General.” lol.
Might be an Islanders vs Canadians Stanley Cup….crazy.