Getting deductions back! Maybe?

Hat tip to Joyce for this gem, from the Star Ledger:

Property tax breaks would be restored under Senate budget bill, Menendez says

A $3.5 trillion spending bill for health care, child care, education and climate change also will address the $10,000 cap on deducting state and local income and property taxes, a key senator said Wednesday.

U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, a member of the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee that will help draft the spending bill, said the measure will deal with the deduction, known as SALT.

“My understanding is there is a SALT provision in there that would provide relief,” Menendez told NJ Advance Media.

It’s unlikely that the deduction would be fully restored immediately because that would cost $673 billion over ten years, according to the Tax Foundation, a conservative research group.

But raising the deduction cap by thousands of dollars would benefit middle class homeowners who were hit hard by the provision, including those in New Jersey, which has the nation’s highest property taxes. 

Menendez said the details have yet to be worked out.

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266 Responses to Getting deductions back! Maybe?

  1. grim says:

    Didn’t realize that Florida condos are not required to have any reserves. Condo boards can essentially vote it away themselves, and many have. Heck, they could even vote away reserves, and then divert any remaining reserves to pay recurring expenses (to keep monthly fees low). This is on top of deferring maintenance for years and years. Double whammy? Triple whammy?

    Really wondering what the total cost of deferred maintenance is across Florida condos, suspect it to be very, very high. Combine this with immature buyers, likely unfamiliar with condo board operations and potential maintenance, shitty realtors who won’t bother to even raise a concern, and boomer boards who are more interested in kicking the can down the road, and you’ve got a reckoning in the making.

    Probably even more widespread than Florida, given the condo boom in the 70s and 80s, buyer beware for sure.

    Was the mob running the concrete business in South Florida in the 70s and 80s?

    Would imagine this big national introspection into condo finances to be somewhat chilling on condo purchases in the short-term.

  2. No One says:

    I’m glad I bought a SFH in FL instead of the many condos available where I bought. Got more sqft/$, and rolling up all my outsourced landscaping, pool guys, insurance, taxes, etc, it’s a little more per month but not by a lot, and it’s under our own control not by some committee. And these condo boards are probably freaking out now. But to have a home directly on the beach, condo units are still the most affordable path. I’m on a lake instead, 5 minutes from the beach.
    Maybe someday I can host the Florida GTG of NJReport. Pumps can stay in NJ to pay for the pensions.

  3. NJCoast says:

    My sister is a board member at her condo on Marco Island. As a CPA she was appalled at the finances prior being elected. When she insisted the roofs be replaced that were 5 years past there lifespan and were leaking, the older board members were apoplectic. A $70,000 assessment was necessary because of deferred maintenance and low reserve.
    Her friend who sold before the assessment disclosed it to the realtor, who as the selling and buying agent decided not to disclose it to the buyer. Buyer sued both realty company and seller. Seller ended up spending $60,000 to defend herself and ended up having to split the settlement cost with realty company. It’s the Wild West down there.

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I said this a million times last year during the pandemic. I can only imagine the future deaths from alcohol abuse. It’s no good for people to be home, they have too many addictions and it’s not only drugs. Some can’t stop eating.

    “U.S. drug overdose deaths rose by nearly 30% last year.

    A deadlier supply of drugs laced with fentanyl and the destabilizing effects of the pandemic led to an estimated 93,331 deaths from drug overdoses in 2020. The record high represented the largest annual increase in three decades. Overdose deaths have been rising since late 2019, but began to take off after the pandemic hit in March 2020, resulting in social isolation, trauma and job losses, according to addiction experts and treatment providers. Fentanyl is 50 times more potent than heroin and is often mixed into illicit drugs like cocaine and ecstasy, often unknown to the user. An estimated 57,550 of the overdose deaths came from synthetic opioids, primarily fentanyl, an increase of more than 54% over 2019. “I can remember thinking 30,000 was an astounding number,” said Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. “Now we’re three times that. It’s crazy.””

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Florida condo market, which is a good portion of the market, is f’ed beyond belief. Hey, this is what happens with low regulations and an obsession with kicking the can down the road. Karma is a bitch, boomers! You were better off staying up north because now you got caught in a bad situation.

  6. SmallGovConservative says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    July 15, 2021 at 8:22 am
    “Florida condo market, which is a good portion of the market, is f’ed beyond belief…”

    Exaggerating just a bit, no? I’m familiar with Florida condo associations/boards as I own in SWFL. While I certainly don’t agree with all board members on spending priorities, the board members themselves — as well as other condo owners — are generally highly thoughtful people who have been long-time homeowners ‘up north’ and are keenly aware of the need for maintenance and upkeep. Interestingly, one of our fairly big ticket items is tree pruning/thinning — properly thinned trees make a huge difference during tropical storm or hurricane winds.

  7. 3b says:

    No need to reinstate SALT, wealthy home owners don’t need welfare subsidies.

  8. leftwing says:

    “would you happen to know of a good family law (prenup) attorney in NJ…”

    Wish I did. No specific recommendation.

    A big firm or ‘expert’ in the field does not assure it. That was my first attorney, from one of the larger and well known firms in NJ. Execution didn’t happen, the Family Court system in NJ was overwhelmed even pre-COVID and she simply did not have the mindshare. Even at $525 an hour, back then.

    There are, of course, rankings. Careful there as well. Had the ex- of a friend use the top ranked family lawyer from one year. Horror show. She’s my friend so I’ve never said it to her but she fleeced her ex-. Again, I think her ex’s poor representation arose from the attorney being pulled in too many directions.

    If anyone is considering a prenup he either is or has reason to believe he will be the strongly disproportionate earner or he has a business or assets that will grow substantially during any marriage.

    Best advice…if it is worth his time to pursue a prenup it is worth investing in becoming fluent in the area. If it were me before I even met with an attorney (interview several, introductory meetings are free and great for advancing knowledge) I would do a deep dive into multiple situations with prenups that were executed and challenged and become entirely knowledgeable not just in the outcomes but also the rationale behind them so that I could drive the process.

    Remember, as the potential payer he wants certainty and specificity (the payee prefers generalities) and at all costs he wants to avoid leaving major decisions to be litigated or subject to review in the Family Court.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Small,

    Not all condo’s are screwed, but you better believe there are plenty that are. You just had a condo collapse. If you think that’s the only condo that was neglected, I think you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning.

    That’s why it’s important to have good govt inspectors that really do their job. Otherwise, buildings collapse and people end up dead…

  10. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Lol. Doubt anyone regrets leaving NJ, unless you want to get a used hyp stuck in your ass.

  11. Juice Box says:

    We have loads of boomer built multi-million dollar estates down here in Monmouth County. Anything above $4 million is not really moving.

    How about these new waterfront homes? The Residences at Ocean Avenue, a collection of five modern beachfront homes, California style on the water.

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/811-Ocean-Ave_Long-Branch_NJ_07740_M93237-49794

  12. Juice Box says:

    Here is the street view of that same new 14 million dollar Long Nranch beachfront Model home, elevated glass wall pool, don’t see too many of those around here.

    I think having the Generac and electrical at literally at ocean level is a bad design. One storm and all that equipment will be destroyed.

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/811+Ocean+Ave,+Long+Branch,+NJ+07740/@40.2773722,-73.9838375,3a,75y,225.17h,96.98t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sygCX_RFdLFl23K_7utUGcQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192!4m5!3m4!1s0x89c225aafad4f609:0x4b65aa579e91916a!8m2!3d40.2772361!4d-73.985218

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you recently bought a condo in the last 10 years, and you get hit with a huge bill to fix your condo, I’m sure you won’t be happy.

    BidenIsTheGOAT says:
    July 15, 2021 at 9:11 am
    Lol. Doubt anyone regrets leaving NJ, unless you want to get a used hyp stuck in your ass.

  14. Juice Box says:

    Add SALT deduction back with the new tax brackets? Trumps tax plan gave big breaks to people in the middle tax brackets. A married couple say a cop and a teacher in NJ filing with $180,000 income after deductions would have had a tax rate of up to 33% in 2017. For 2018, 2019,2020 etc their tax rate is just 24%. That is a 16,200 dollar difference….paying 59,400 vs 43,200 in federal income tax..

    The new 24% tax bracket stretches from $168,401 – $321,450

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Absolutely. You are missing the next step to this concept though. Bitcoin is land in cyberspace, and there is a digital land grab in its early stages now. There are 50 million millionaires in the world and only 21 million bitcoin. Owning a full Bitcoin will be a status symbol.”

    “A good historical example for this in the digital space is domain names. Internet domain names were basically worthless at first, but over time people realized that they are digital real estate with absolute scarcity, and many domain names are worth millions of dollars today.”

  16. leftwing says:

    JB, is that street level from the charging station next door?

    Just wow. While true oceanfront (no boardwalk) that is a steep ask. Especially for being adjacent to, but not in, the nice town next door. And nearer to the condos and terrace houses…Yet it’s under contract with an ask of $14m….

    If that isn’t indicative of the horrible distortions engendered by the Fed’s free money policy I don’t what is…..

    We are years overdue for a good, natural, normally recurring flush of the system.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lefty, the entire coast from fort Lee to cape may will be owned by the highest bidder aka wealthy within 20 years.

  18. The Great Pumpkin says:

    AC prob only exception, but that can change quickly.

  19. No One says:

    Weird design for a beach house. Looks like a public library, and next to a parking lot. I wonder what’s the annual insurance and property tax cost. Having grown up in FL, I never had any interest in the Jersey shore after arriving in this state. And even less interest after buying a new primary home in FL near but not on the beach. Pumps probably thinks the Jersey shore is the greatest, though.

  20. Chicago says:

    When I read that comment, I literally felt part of my brain short out. It was being hit by a lightning bolt of stupidity. Possibly the stupidest thing posted on these threads in YEARS!

    Hold my beer says:
    July 14, 2021 at 10:47 pm
    How do you make a used car?

  21. Hold my beer says:

    Takanasee beach club used to be at that spot or within a block of it. I believe Sandy took it out.

  22. Juice Box says:

    leftwing – Yes charging station in the condo building next door, on the other side of the condo building is San Alfonso Retreat House. My mother used to stay there to pray away the bad etc. The whole area was wiped out many many times by storms.

    That home backs up to a small lake where it floods. My point is there is at least 4 zones of A/C out there, a Generac, pool heater and other stuff that will get wiped out in the next Nor’easter. For 14 million most of that equipment should have been elevated. There are 4 more $12 million dollar homes same design going up on that lot there too.

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/N+Lake+Dr,+Long+Branch,+NJ+07740/@40.2767282,-73.9853868,245m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x89c225abd4f81b3f:0xd8d963460966da77!8m2!3d40.2777412!4d-73.9885947

    Long Branch has been totally transformed. Ocean Blvd is now all gleaming glass, stone and marble condos mixed with some old section 8 and run down homes and condos built decades ago. Kirshner just bought more land for a Hotel…

  23. Ez says:

    Did someone say private education investments?

    Chris Whittle, once a highflying education entrepreneur, has lost his grand Hamptons estate to Avenues Global Holdings, the parent company of the private Avenues school network he helped to found, according to a spokeswoman for Avenues.

    In an auction that took place Tuesday morning, Avenues was awarded right and title to the property, subject to other liens, for a credit bid of just $700,000, the spokeswoman said. The auction was a forced sale to satisfy more than $6 million in debts owed to Avenues by Mr. Whittle. Avenues expects to officially take title to the property next week and will make plans for the property soon after, the spokeswoman said.

    “We hope that this facilitates the recovery of the more than $6 million that remains owed and unpaid to Avenues,” the spokeswoman said.

    Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/once-asking-140-million-chris-whittles-hamptons-home-auctioned-off-to-repay-debts-11626203770

  24. NJCoast says:

    Those beach houses are on the property of the old Takenassee Beach Club in the Elberon section of Long Branch It’s a tiny spit of land between the ocean and a lake. The project is owned by the Chera’s. Stanley Chera was the pal of Trumps who died of Covid last year. The Kushners are behind much of the Long Branch development. Crown Aquisitions, the Chera family firm, is highly leveraged and mostly invested in commercial real estate with many tenants not paying rent. The families have been buying up oceanfront properties and putting up huge manses. Will probably leave the banks holding the bag if things go further south. Crown Aquisitions started their own SPAC. One of the sons is a big wig with Vornado

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Guys, I was mocking inflation hawks.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    July 14, 2021 at 10:31 pm
    Used cars accounted for a third of June inflation, so we should definitely be watching what happens to the wages of people who make used cars. That’s gonna be big.

  26. Juice Box says:

    I spent many summers down here in Monmouth, every decade it gets flooded and some places totally wiped out. When I was closing on my home, which is 90 ft above sea level the title insurance guy was there at the lawyers office etc, his waterfront home had 8 ft of water in during Sandy and was totaled. I now see the homes in his old hood are going for $3 million plus. This is all bay side waterfront older homes in Rumson, Little Silver etc now for sale. Even Bon Jovi’s for sale $20 million dollar home had water too….I gather the homeowners are all hoping the new buyers don’t remember Hurricane Sandy.

    Last one was 9 years ago, so we are about due for another wipeout.

  27. leftwing says:

    Reminds me of Newark as the Pru was going in and even right up to COVID….

    All the future gains on individual properties were reflected in current asking price….unless you were able to redevelop the property for high density, a la Kirschner, you were buying the property at the value some years out…..purely speculative play.

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup.

    “People that say Tesla is just a “car” company are the same f!ckboys that said Apple was just a “phone” company or Amazon was just a “book selling” company back in the day.”

    https://twitter.com/teslaconomics/status/1415490358419476481?s=21

  29. Ez says:

    We have more Tesla’s out here than nearly anywhere else.
    It’s gassers vs Tesla and car culture rules here.
    Pros and Cons of course. But I love my old gas motor.

  30. Ew says:

    We also have 17m gallons of raw poop get accidentally pumped into the ocean around El Segundo. Ew.

  31. Ew says:

    Btw that’s my new ID “Ew”. Reflects the zeitgeist –

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    It’s gassers vs Tesla and car culture rules here.

    Well, we’re slowly killing classical American culture bit by bit. Even my kid who is working on a Masters degree said this multi gender identity thing, soc1al media nonsense, symbolic gestures to every thing is getting out of hand. I think once the roar of gasoline-powered racecars are replaced with the subtle whining of an electric motor, we’ll know the transformation is complete.

  33. Phoenix says:

    “I think having the Generac and electrical at literally at ocean level is a bad design. One storm and all that equipment will be destroyed.”

    Fukushima Daiichi

  34. Phoenix says:

    Finished Bosch.
    Great ending to a series. Door open for a restart.

  35. Bystander says:

    Ed,

    Admit it. You like vintage pron too. Christy Canyon..mmm

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    By,

    Lol. Modern Pron has ushered extreme edginess and exploration into the mainstream. Who would of thought s.ex toys could be found on the shelves of Walgreens and CVS? lol.

  37. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,
    The more they sell, the more we remove.
    Job security for me.

  38. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Bosch was great! Hope he comes back as a PI.

  39. Phoenix says:

    3b,
    I agree, but wouldn’t have posted the ending. Anyway, since the horse has left the barn, here is the answer to your wish. Too bad police aren’t like him in real life.

    https://www.tampabay.com/life-culture/arts/books/2021/03/03/bosch-is-back-a-new-michael-connelly-tv-series-in-the-works/

  40. Phoenix says:

    And if I were ever to get married again, someone like Detective Vega would suit the bill.

  41. No One says:

    Fast Eddie,
    How about if the pron featured two ladies using gas chainsaw-engine- powered d1ld0es on each other, instead of the usual electric versions? Would that make it better?

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The pandemic was supposed to lead to a great tech diaspora. But dire warnings over the past year that tech was done with the Bay Area are looking overheated as a growing number of industry workers are already trickling back.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/15/technology/tech-workers-bay-area-back.html

  43. Libturd says:

    “Phoenix: Bosch was great! Hope he comes back as a PI.”

    Hieronymus Bosch?

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bumper-to-bumper traffic has returned to the Bay Area’s bridges and freeways. Tech commuter buses are reappearing on the roads. Rents are spiking, especially in San Francisco neighborhoods where tech employees often live. nyti.ms/3elrZHv

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “I think people were pretty noisy about quitting the Bay Area. But they have been very quiet in admitting they want to move back.”-Eric Bahn

  46. Bystander says:

    Lib,

    I like how that graph is basically forming a dead person. Look again.

  47. Libturd says:

    Geez Pumps, do you even read the drivel you post?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/15/technology/tech-workers-bay-area-back.html

    “No one is quite ready to declare that things have returned to normal. Ridership on Bay Area Rapid Transit remains low, and nearly half of San Francisco’s small businesses are still closed. Office vacancy rates are high. The city’s downtown is still largely empty on weekdays.”

    And a bio on the author:

    “Kellen Browning is a technology reporter in the Bay Area covering the video game industry and general tech news.”

  48. Libturd says:

    ““This could mean that tech workers are coming back, although it could also mean that other people, who also value those areas, are taking advantage of the lower rents to move in,” said Ted Egan, San Francisco’s chief economist.”

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib, it’s not back to normal, but it will be in time.

  50. Libturd says:

    Like my wage growth?

  51. Fast Eddie says:

    Phoenix,

    The more they sell, the more we remove.

    LOL

  52. leftwing says:

    “Geez Pumps, do you even read the drivel you post?”

    Rhetorical, right?

    That’s my favorite graph. Gonna need a Post-It stickied to the upper right corner to chart the next leg up working its way through the Congress-critters.

  53. Fast Eddie says:

    No One,

    How about if the pron featured two ladies using gas chainsaw-engine- powered d1ld0es on each other, instead of the usual electric versions? Would that make it better?

    The moment they achieve that feat will be the moment someone attempts to one-up them. :)

  54. leftwing says:

    Gundlach coming up on CNBC during the noon show…one of the best macro guys around, he can also move markets.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Now some companies are expanding their Bay Area footprints. Google said in March that it would spend $1 billion on California developments this year, including two office complexes in Mountain View. The company is also building a massive, mixed-use development that includes a 7.3-million-square-foot office space in San Jose. In September, Google will reopen its doors to employees. Most will come in three days a week.

    Twitter is also opening a 30,000-square-foot office in San Jose’s Santana Row this fall and an Oakland building next year, said Jennifer Christie, the company’s chief human resources officer.

    The share of Twitter’s work force in San Francisco declined to 35 percent last month, from 45 percent a year earlier, as the company grew quickly elsewhere, Ms. Christie said. But the total number of Bay Area employees is similar: about 2,200, compared with 2,300 last year.

    About 45 percent of employees at Twitter said they wanted to return to the office at least part time, Ms. Christie said, but she expects that number to grow. “I do think there’s a good number of people who still want to be in the San Francisco area,” she said.”

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Area won’t die, and will most likely come back stronger than before.

  57. Juice Box says:

    I used to live off 7th Ave in NYC. Here is a recent real estate video from Louis Rossman on vacant retail on 7th Ave. This video is about very very expensive retail space $40,000-$75,000 a month retail all empty and covered in graffiti. Apt rents around here are $5k -$7k a month too.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjd1WNhGliY

  58. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Sorry about that.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    One of the best takes on this…

    “The fed inventing news ways of printing money has been offset by the huge gains in productivity and efficiency that the technological revolution has created. If we can’t maintain the growth, the house of cards will come crashing down.”

  60. SmallGovConservative says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    July 15, 2021 at 9:09 am

    “That’s why it’s important to have good govt inspectors that really do their job. Otherwise, buildings collapse and people end up dead…”

    You mean like these govt inspectors?

    New Orleans inspectors accused of skipping inspections at two more major CBD building sites — https://www.nola.com/news/article_0e8da976-576f-11ea-aca8-b3f24672c651.html

    I get your point, that taxpayers need and deserve good governance and efficient and effective govt services. I just don’t get how willing some of you guys are to accept bad governance and the corruption and inefficiency that goes with it — and to help drive demand for more and bigger govt. We need less govt, but we need the essential services that we pay for to be delivered better.

  61. Juice Box says:

    Just finished watching Louis Rossman’s video of the vacant and destroyed retail in NYC. Google has not updated their street view in NYC since 2019 pre-pandemic. I would say that would be intentional and the city is a mess, post pandemic recovery when? Retail space in NYC is super expensive…it’s going to take forever.

  62. 3b says:

    Nabisco in Fairlawn bakes their last batch of cookies tomorrow!

  63. 3b says:

    Juice: That was a depressing video.

  64. chicagofinance says:

    That is kind of a in-between area, which is not MSG/Penn, not Madison Sq/Flatiron, not Chelsea. Still, with the Whole Foods there and hotels, it shouldn’t be that way…. lots of start-ups used to be in all the lofted office space in those side streets. The stretch of Broadway from Herald Sq to Madison Sq was really seedy until finally about 10 years ago a bunch of boutique hotels moved in to support the start-up businesses. I could already see when I went to Depeche Mode in Sept 2017 and stayed on 25th how much DiBlasio was destroying the gentrification. Lots of cannabis smoke everywhere. I can only imagine how bad the homeless problem is there…… they come to NYC by bus and train and fan out.

    Juice Box says:
    July 15, 2021 at 12:41 pm
    I used to live off 7th Ave in NYC. Here is a recent real estate video from Louis Rossman on vacant retail on 7th Ave. This video is about very very expensive retail space $40,000-$75,000 a month retail all empty and covered in graffiti. Apt rents around here are $5k -$7k a month too.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjd1WNhGliY

  65. 3b says:

    Chgo: My younger brother works on 7th and 43. He lives upper west side, and says homelessness is as bad as the 80s, and they are much more aggressive.

  66. Juice Box says:

    Chi – It’s a long video Rossman walked down past 14th street right past my old place and down into the village, the Dawne Read is gone too, Chase Bank, Hair Salon, Cleaners etc, and pretty much all the restaurant businesses that were there for decades on 7th ave.

    I do wish google would update their street view it’s all pre-Covid.

  67. Fast Eddie says:

    I haven’t been into Manhattan since Covid hit. Are the squeegee keys back at the tunnel entrances?

  68. chicagofinance says:

    leftwing: another gem from the You Tube algorithm….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_UrhA-ilWQ

  69. chicagofinance says:

    left: comment from the video page…
    Torgo1969
    6 years ago
    I’ll never forget a Cornell-Colgate game at Lynah in the late 1980s when current Toronto Maple Leafs assistant coach Steve Spott took the ice for Colgate. A bold fan yelled out, “There’s a Spott on the ice!”

    (With all due respect to Steve Spott, and congrats for his success in coaching a revered franchise.)

    xxxxxxx
    left: I remember seeing Spott playing and he was called for a penalty, and the entire crowd started chanting “sit Spott sit”

  70. Bystander says:

    Yet, Manahattan real estate coming back strong. I hear it was the Telly Salvalas etstate that purchased much of it.

  71. SmallGovConservative says:

    Juice Box says:
    July 15, 2021 at 1:03 pm
    “…the city is a mess…”

    Walking to work from Penn Station this morning counted 8 people passed out on the sidewalk just on the stretch of 34th between 6th and 7th — no idea how many I saw passed out or meandering in some sort of daze in front of Penn Station/Hotel Penn. Really depressing after all of the improvements under Rudy and Bloomberg.

  72. Juice Box says:

    Another video of his last week NYC – Broadway – SoHo north across Houston St to 11th street.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuALRyGI3Ho

  73. Juice Box says:

    Reason I am looking at vidoes NYC Real Estate is because NJCoast mentioned the Chera family and unpaid commercial rents got me to thinking and CMBS loan CMBS loans in Manhattan etc delinquency rates are all times highs. That paper is going to need a bailout. Has it happened already? There was supposed to be a 1/2 trillion dollar bailout bill last year not sure if it passed or will be a coming around again soon in Congress.

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t know the answer. You need good people, but most people are bad.

    I just watched “How to become a Tyrant” on Netflix. Recommend it. Shows you how dirty the game is.

    “I get your point, that taxpayers need and deserve good governance and efficient and effective govt services. I just don’t get how willing some of you guys are to accept bad governance and the corruption and inefficiency that goes with it — and to help drive demand for more and bigger govt. We need less govt, but we need the essential services that we pay for to be delivered better.”

  75. BRT says:

    My sister lives in the upper west side. Soho and greenwich village were here previous dwellings. When she was over, my brother and I were talking about how bad it is there. He drives a delivery truck and has to do deliveries in NYC almost 3 or 4 times a week. My sister acted oblivious to the decay but the reality is, she just doesn’t want to admit it with her political blinders on. My brother says the homeless have gotten way too aggressive.

  76. soutwin says:

    It is my understanding full deduction starts at 79K up to 160K %(50%)after that you lose it

  77. leftwing says:

    Lynah’s special.

    Will be a sad day if they ever go with a new arena….

  78. JCer says:

    I was in the city yesterday, took the wonderful NJTransit train for the first time since the pandemic which then could not get back due to a downed wire. NJTransit needs to be eliminated and they need to start over, it is the single least effective governmental organization I’ve encountered, the trains travel slower than when they were initially installed, here we are in 2021 with computerization and the trains travel slower than they did in the 1960’s.

    My god lots of homeless everywhere from central park all the way down to Penn lots of dudes sleeping on the sidewalk, a urine stink, and many people walking down the street smoking a joint. DeBlasio has tried his darnedest to destroy the city with any luck Adams brings back some sanity.

  79. Trick says:

    LA put back an indoor mask mandate,

  80. Bystander says:

    New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley announced he would convert all future money made off the field to Bitcoin, citing inflationary concerns.

    Barkley, who signed with the Giants in 2018, makes more than $10 million per year in endorsements, marketing, and sponsorship deals. He revealed those assets would not go into his physical wallet but rather a Bitcoin wallet during an appearance on the Best Business Show with Anthony Pompliano.

    Barkley explained his goal is to attain wealth akin to Kevin Durant, Lebron James, and Tom Brady but said it’s not attainable through just saving because of inflation.

    “You see inflation, you see how high it is right now, and you learn that you can’t save yourself to wealth,” Barkley said. “That’s why I’m going to be taking my marketing money in Bitcoin.”

  81. grim says:

    Good luck with that.

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  83. Fabius Maximus says:

    We should call this emojii the Phoenix.

    https://twitter.com/KarenAttiah/status/1415645006019416064

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Invest in tech. Either buy individual stocks if you want to do work, or just buy ARK funds if you don’t want to put in the work. Either way, golden opportunity here.

    “Many Jobs Lost During the Coronavirus Pandemic Just Aren’t Coming Back

    Companies see automation and other labor-saving steps as a way to emerge from the health crisis with a permanently smaller workforce”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/many-jobs-lost-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-just-arent-coming-back-11626341401?st=ryjtjmlxq47408b&reflink=article_copyURL_share

  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is why the FED can print money, the inflation gets absorbed by deflationary tech innovation. Took me 10 years to figure out why there wasn’t major inflation after 2008. Took me a long time to find the answer to this riddle.

  86. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s funny…8 years ago we were arguing on this blog over inflation. I said it will return and a good majority said it was done. The times have changed. Funny how life works like that. Now you guys are pushing inflation as a problem and I’m like deflation is the problem.

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    One day down the road, we are going to realize all these “overvalued tech stocks” were stupid cheap in 2021. Same with real estate. Buy in good locations this year if you can, your future self will thank you.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I would bet hard on NC Raleigh/Dunham area and then sell by 2025. Collect rent in the meantime. Also can hold and just collect rent, but this area is growing fast. I would personally just cash out at 2025 and then wait for the bust, and then go to work on NYC real estate depending on mortgage rates. If they are low def NYC. If high, then find a market that is cheaper in cost.

  89. BRT says:

    Just got a note from work. Staff who are vaccinated can work unmasked. Staff who are not vaccinated may return if they are masked.

  90. Phoenix says:

    New term to add to my vocabulary today. Never heard this term. Snow roaches. In the context it was used filthy snow roaches.

    What will they come up with next?

  91. grim says:

    What floors me most about NYC isn’t that stores are empty right now. The real question is how a shitty old camera store could have ever made Times Square rent in the last decade.

  92. grim says:

    NJ’s immunization app (partner really) is shit. Wonder how much this cost us.

  93. grim says:

    Few days ago I talked about China’s shitty vaccines requiring the rest-of-world to likely need to re-innoculate with a better quality vaccine in the near future.

    Looks like Malaysia is the first to pull the plug on China, and switch to Pfizer.

    Expect more countries to follow suit. Will be a major embarrassment to China.

    Given China’s push to end US-IPO of China firms, Biden aught to exhibit a bit more patriotism around this topic. After all, American medicine is the best in the world.

  94. grim says:

    Oh, and Tennessee is a f*cking embarrassment to America.

  95. grim says:

    NJ’s Covid transmission rate (Rt) at 1.16, a 7 month high, new cases at 441, an 8 week high. Delta variant last record was at 41% of new cases, but that’s easily going to be well above 50% on the next report – it’s already the dominant strain.

    Don’t throw away your masks just yet, for certain we’re going to see mask mandates back again. Will we see lockdowns again in NJ? It doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility. Clear that NJ’s 57% fully vaccinated rate isn’t sufficient to kill this thing.

    All eyes are going to be on the hospitalization data.

    Would be very wise for states to use the unvaccinated hospitalization and mortality rates as the headline numbers, thats the drum that needs to be beat on a daily basis now.

  96. Hold my beer says:

    I still wear a mask when I’m in a store. No way more than half the people in there are vaccinated unless I’m in hmart.

    I expect a big surge in a month or 2. Not as bad as January due to so many vaccinated.

    Also the U.K. stats with vaccinated people getting covid aren’t that reliable. They are counting anyone with only 1 dose as vaccinated and I haven’t seen any data by age or comorbidities yet.

  97. grim says:

    Over the last week, masks seem to be done in NJ.

    For the first time, in a long time, I ended up somewhere without a mask in the car, and just said, f-it. I think I was more worried than anyone else, because nobody else had one either.

  98. grim says:

    Good piece over at Stat (highly recommend this site if you are looking for med/healthcare news):

    https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/16/since-the-cdcs-mid-may-guidance-on-wearing-masks-were-no-longer-all-in-this-together/

    I think this is a really important topic – are we all in this together, or are we not? Seems that the broad trend, even across the coastal states is that we aren’t, and that’s the only way to incentivize increased vaccination. Not vaccinated? Too bad, hope you don’t die. The problem with this, I think, is that it vaccination has nothing to do with individual protection. We get vaccinated to protect everyone, not ourselves. It allows the conversation to devolve vaccines being more about personal protection, when they are not.

  99. Phoenix says:

    For you finance guys. Real or propaganda?

    https://youtu.be/9RbL8lTsITY

  100. Phoenix says:

    Andrew Huszar.
    Anyone heard of him?

  101. Phoenix says:

    “are we all in this together, or are we not?”

    No, we are not all in this together. Cause plenty of Americans don’t care. And really, why should they?
    Isn’t the whole point about being an American the concept of Me Me Me?

    Because it sure seems that way. Another reason China keeps chipping away at the foundation of America. They are smart doing it this way vs a military attack. And it’s probably going to work. Give the cancer of America fuel, it will take care of itself on the inside.

  102. Bystander says:

    Phoenix,

    Not a finance guy but I don’t think there are many financ specific questions in that PBS Fed piece. It is a who’s who of people that made (and continue to make) billions off the same sysytem which they are complaining about. It reminds of Slurm beverage episode of Futurama. Cheap money is our slurm even after we know the disgusting system that supplies it. I always love the bug-eyed Kashhari taking lead on Fed deflection campaign – “hey we just print money and give banks cheap rates. Our goal is make sure the poor have a job. Congress has to pass regulation to fix broken banking system” He is such a stone faced liar.

    Now back to the hot stock market..ahh, Slurm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8CRB8UOb2I

  103. joyce says:

    “Would be very wise for states to use the unvaccinated hospitalization and mortality rates as the headline numbers”

    Yes it would. NJ will continue to report on total cumulative cases over the last 18 months.

  104. Fast Eddie says:

    Saquon Barkley and results of bitcoin investment 20 years from now: “Welcome to King Burger, may I take your order?”

  105. Grim says:

    Court needs to appoint a conservator, that dude is off his rocker.

  106. Walking says:

    Regarding prenup. Not sure who is getting or thinking marriage, but I would recommend 6-9 months or premarital counseling as money well spent. You sometimes need an outsider to ask those uncomfortable questions neither couple wants to face because, umm, love is blind and we generally don’t want to offend the other partner.

  107. Libturd says:

    “Will we see lockdowns again in NJ? It doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility.”

    It’s an election year and the ONLY thing Murphy has going for him is Covid. Not sure there will be lockdowns, but indoor mask mandates are a no-brainer.

    “We get vaccinated to protect everyone, not ourselves.”
    Tell this to Leftwing. He believes it should be his own choice because the fatality rate is so low. Until you factor in the decades of unnecessary deaths and illnesses because him and the population of selfish antivax fools can’t see the forest from the trees. And yes, there is the argument that if you don’t get the world on board, then why bother? Well if our government feels it can send nearly every American family 10K a year for the fukc of it, it certainly can afford to pay to manufacture enough vaccines for the world for free. Currently, it’s $20 for two doses. That’s about 150 billion to inoculate the world. To put things into perspective, the U.S. wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Pakistan have cost American taxpayers $6.4 trillion since they began in 2001.

    You still want the selfish choice? Go move to Moron Island. We’ll pay for the transportation.

  108. Libturd says:

    Walking,

    Not bad advice, or you could actually be 100% open with your partner about EVERYTHING. Believe me, it makes for a much healthier relationship. I’m the same way with my tenants, my kids, etc. My friends like to say that I don’t have a filter. I always respond by saying closed minds tend to think alike.

  109. Libturd says:

    The news is peppered with anecdotal evidence of breakthrough cases. The headlines are terrifying and the personal stories are tragic:

    Boston Globe: “79 fully vaccinated Massachusetts residents have died, 303 hospitalized in very rare COVID ‘breakthrough’ cases, officials say”

    The Guardian: “COVID outbreak among vaccinated Vegas hospital workers underscores Delta risks”

    NBC: “Illinois Coronavirus Updates: Breakthrough COVID Cases Are 2% of State’s Deaths This Year”

    So, why do breakthrough cases happen?

    We shouldn’t think of vaccine protection as binary (yes or no). It’s better to think of protection on a spectrum: On one end the vaccine will protect people in every situation and on the other end it doesn’t protect people at all. And each of us land somewhere in between.

    There are many factors that determine where we land:

    There’s of course the variants. Depending which variant you come in contact with determines your level of protection. mRNA vaccines’ efficacy is now ~88% against Delta. If 100 people got COVID19, Pfizer/Moderna could have prevented 88 of them. 12 people would have still gotten some form of the disease. On the other hand, if people came in contact with the original strain, 95 (out of a 100) would have been prevented.

    Some of us just don’t have immune systems that can build protection. For example, it looks like certain drugs for immunocompromised patients reduce and/or prevent protection. Also, older adults are less protected.

    Behaviors, too, can predict your place on this spectrum. If a vaccinated person is exposed to a large enough dose of a virus OR exposed to enough unvaccinated people where transmission is high, the virus can overcome the vaccine and cause infection, even among the sturdiest of immune defenses.

    And then there’s just luck. Even if you compare twins, the level of protection can differ. Some people will just create fewer or less strong defense mechanisms (antibodies, T cells, and/or memory B cells). And we don’t really know why.

    Nonetheless, should the virus make it through, Dr. Ali Ellebody, an immunologist at Washington University in St. Louis, said it best:

    “It becomes a race [against] time. The pathogen rushes to copy itself, and the immune system recruits more defenders. The longer the tussle drags on, the more likely the disease is to manifest.”

    It’s important to monitor all breakthrough cases.

    If we closely monitor them, we can answer some very critical questions like…

    Are breakthrough cases happening at the rate in which we expect?

    Who’s most likely to break through?

    What is the rate of a mild breakthrough case vs. severe breakthrough case?

    Are variants, like Delta, causing more (or more severe) breakthrough cases than other variants?

    A study was published describing breakthrough cases between January 1-April 30. During this time among 101 million fully vaccinated Americans, 10,262 breakthrough infections were reported to the CDC. Who were they?

    63% female

    Median age was 58 years (age range was 40–74 years)

    10% were hospitalized

    2% died. Median age of patients who died was 82 years (age range was 71–89 years)

    Genomic sequence data were available for 5% of breakthrough cases

    64% were identified as a Variant of Concern (this was before Delta emerged)

    Beginning May 1, 2021, though, the CDC transitioned from monitoring all breakthrough infections to investigating only those among patients who are hospitalized or die. The CDC doesn’t have the infrastructure to rigorously investigate all breakthrough cases. They needed to prioritize their operation, so they decided to focus on cases of highest clinical and public health significance.

    The CDC continuously publishes the latest count on their website. As of July 6, there were 5,186 severe breakthrough cases. This includes 988 deaths (although it’s important to notice the footnote stating that 255 of these were not directly related to COVID19).

    Unfortunately because the CDC does not track asymptomatic or mild breakthrough cases, we have no idea what the true breakthrough rate is in the United States. We just don’t have a clue.

    So, we are dependent on other countries that have rigorous surveillance systems in place.

    The UK has the best variant surveillance system in the world. The UK alone is responsible for 40% of the world’s COVID19 sequencing. It’s also incredibly fast and the data is made public almost immediately. This helps inform real-time decision-making by public health officials and vaccine sponsors. I continue to be amazed by their efforts.

    We can learn a lot from their data- like breakthrough cases due to certain variants. Every week-ish, Public Health England publishes a technical report of the current state of affairs. Here is their latest report from July 9. Within the report, you can find the rate of breakthrough cases per Delta.

    From February 1 to June 21, 123,620 Delta cases were sequenced in the UK. Among those, 10,834 cases were among fully vaccinated (i.e. breakthrough cases) and 71,932 cases among the unvaccinated. While this isn’t all of the breakthrough cases, this gives an even closer estimate to the “true” rate of breakthrough cases due to Delta. But even this is among patients who went to the hospital. We still don’t know the asymptomatic and/or mild breakthrough rate.

    Bottom Line:

    We just don’t know how many breakthrough cases there are in the United States. With Delta or with any other variant. And we may never know. Just know that being vaccinated doesn’t mean you’re immune. It means you have another fantastic layer of protection. Given that we’re now facing exponential spread in the United States, it’s time to add more layers of protection. Like masking up inside.

  110. 3b says:

    Yesterday’s discussion on marriage was sobering, those things just were not discussed when we got married 30 odd years ago. But it makes sense, too many horror stories out there on people getting screwed in marriage. My Aunt who is 93 and never married says there is no such thing as love, it’s all about security!

  111. DavidGon says:

    Obviously you were mistaken…

  112. Libturd says:

    3B,

    I know I am a rare bird, with my hatred of religion, love of my enemy and willingness to say exactly what I feel regardless of cultural norms. How many of you have told your wives that if they want to cheat on you, let you know ahead of time so we can start the divorce proceedings amicably? I’ve seen to many terrible divorces. Heck, my dad abandoned his four kids when I was 6 months old. Just get it all out in the open. If someone’s breath stinks? Tell them. It takes a little while for people to get used to it, but eventually they’ll grow to appreciate it.

  113. BRT says:

    It’s funny…8 years ago we were arguing on this blog over inflation. I said it will return and a good majority said it was done. The times have changed. Funny how life works like that. Now you guys are pushing inflation as a problem and I’m like deflation is the problem.

    Actually, 8 years ago, you were spewing s0cia1st nonsense and telling us wage inflation would outpace all other things.

  114. JCer says:

    Pumps your take on inflation is dead wrong. The reason for limited inflation post 2008 has nothing to do with technological disruption and everything to do with stagnant wages. In order to get widespread inflation you need to have supply vs. demand dislocation. Certain people benefited immensely but by and large the population en-mase makes the same income in dollar terms as they did 20 years ago. Core baskets of goods and services that are commoditized cannot move much in such an environment. When you consider goods are made overseas largely in a country that sets pricing in US dollars but is not involved in the US monetary system, China decides when there will be inflation, they have decided on volume rather than profit.

  115. BRT says:

    Gottlieb on today,

    he said mask mandates are the wrong move right now. He says it doesn’t make sense for anyone that is vaccinated and we run the risk of losing credibility if we do it at the wrong time.

  116. Phoenix says:

    Lib,
    Americans pick and choose what they want to do every single day. It’s the “Marlboro Man” concept of America.

    If LW is against it, so be it. It is, in fact, the American way. Cause America does not have a “team” mentality – not in any way, shape, or form. It has more of an Animal Farm mentality.

    Can’t have it both ways.

  117. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Growth in an individual, it’s a beautiful thing.

    Wage inflation did come. Look around you. What is Walmart up to? And up until this year, goods were barely rising. These wages started kicking up in 2017-18.

    BRT says:
    July 16, 2021 at 10:13 am
    It’s funny…8 years ago we were arguing on this blog over inflation. I said it will return and a good majority said it was done. The times have changed. Funny how life works like that. Now you guys are pushing inflation as a problem and I’m like deflation is the problem.

    Actually, 8 years ago, you were spewing s0cia1st nonsense and telling us wage inflation would outpace all other things.

  118. Libturd says:

    Well it sucks for those who want to end a terribly handled pandemic.

    Our once great country is rapidly headed down the toilet. We will be no better than Brazil in another decade or two if the current selfishness continues. I’ve probably got 25 or so years left on this planet, so I might as well just join them, right?

    Time is the enemy of a pandemic. Those refusing to be vaccinated will allow more dangerous variants to develop and spread. The worst part of it is that so many members of the party that was adamant about giving Trump credit for developing the vaccine so quickly (and he did get vaccinated smartly) are refusing to take it. Personally, I feel taking the vaccine is a patriotic duty. America could get a hell of a lot of world credibility (and a much needed boost in help making sure the dollar remains the reserve currency of the world) saving the world yet again. But we are no longer a country that cares about anything but ourselves. Our bought and paid for government exists only to enrich the rich (and themselves along the way).

    The entire world is clamoring for vaccine doses and we are refusing them. How dumb are we?

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer,

    Inflation was low after 2008 for a combination of factors. The main factor, how tech innovation absorbed most of the blow…it put a heavy hand on reducing the cost of most products. Service based products went up like education, but other aspects of the economy were able to lower costs through tech innovation.

    Read this.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417536-technology-is-eating-inflation

  120. JCer says:

    Pumps the wages that matter(not the greeter at walmart but rather the professional worker, factory worker, middle class jobs) haven’t risen in over 20 years meanwhile costs have soared. Look at your age category, go look at the kids you went to high school with, compare the median income with 2 generations ago at the same age and compare the debt levels. You’ll see in dollar terms income is lower and debt is higher, this is a result of what Bystander sees at work on the daily, tremendous downward wage pressure, zirp, and asset bubbles.

    Pumps you got lucky as an asset owner with the inflationary policies you just as easily could have been crushed. In 1929 you would have been in a lot trouble, you probably would have defaulted and lost your assets but in 2009 the Fed bailed out the markets, it was luck not brilliance or anything else.

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Read that article and understand, then you will see where I’m coming from. Deflation is the fear, you are going to eventually not need human labor for production, only their consumption and creativity to drive the economy. Can we transition peacefully? I don’t know and it scares me. You are going to need a new approach to the economy that can function with most of the population not needed to work in the traditional sense. Can a class structure survive under this?

    As for my assets. I was yelling and screaming that housing would continue to go up, but no one listened, instead they laughed at me and told me housing is going to crash.

  122. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So don’t tell me it was luck. I understood very well what was going on and tried my hardest to get others to understand as well. It’s what I’m doing right now. I’m telling you deflation is what is coming. Invest in innovative tech, the only vehicle that can provide growth in a deflationary environment because it is the source of the deflation. It will continue to grow, and become cheaper and more efficient than what human labor can do.

    I’m investing ark for these reasons.

  123. JCer says:

    Pumps that’s BS there was massive wage growth in the period. Compare China’s rise with our fed policies. We had inflation and wage growth but it happened to be in China and India! Goods are cheap because of China, the policies of their government, and very low wages, technology is inherently cheap because once you build 1, building another million costs very little now add China to the mix, low wages, cheap credit, and this is what you get.

    Education and healthcare went through the roof largely because ZIRP disrupted the business model, if you cannot safely earn a return on your premiums how can you make the future payouts. Both are models of dysfunctional markets as well, education keeps going up because borrowing enables people to pay it and university systems spend like drunken sailors, my college dorm looked like Manuel Noriega’s prison cell and I’m sure the food in a Panamanian prison was better than what they served us now they have new building, state of the art facilities, there was a lot built and done that has little to do with education yet the costs are born by future students. Technology and productivity are factors but even if you talk to providers of household services the actual workers haven’t made much wage traction.

  124. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Forgot to mention what scares me. The deleveraging of debt. If they keep printing money, and then tech innovation can’t absorb it anymore, then BOOOM. It all goes up in smoke as chaos takes over. But for now, they have no choice but to keep printing and avoid deflation. We need to build an escape plan that everyone accepts and transition peacefully. Too bad, knowing human nature, it won’t happen that way.

  125. Phoenix says:

    “Man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf.”

  126. BRT says:

    Ironic that your Clifton property is valued at an all time high when it is yielding you nothing in return. And you still can’t comprehend that any gains in wages that occur lag prices of everything else.

  127. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Look at what has been happening. They are doing whatever they can to get money into the hands of the consumer. Why? They are terrified of deflation. I never saw a thing like the child tax credit before, but here it is, money being dropped into bank accounts….and it’s all because of a battle with deflation.

  128. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You think they would be dropping money like this in 1970? No, because they were battling inflation. The game has changed. Tech changed it all along with slower population growth.

  129. Grim says:

    Why did I get this tax credit deposited? 2 Kids, 2 and 9. $333?

    There is no way I qualify.

  130. JCer says:

    Pumps it’s a mirage, they can’t keep increasing the money supply, the Fed has lost control of the situation. Eventually the chickens need to come home to roost. Asset prices need to stabilize or we risk a serious economic event.

    It isn’t that we’ve automated our way to prosperity, quite literally we have off-shored our prosperity. Technology and efficiency is not behind low goods prices it’s Chinese Slave labor that is in fact less efficient than the western labor they are replacing.

  131. Phoenix says:

    It’s all going to end badly. All of it.

  132. Phoenix says:

    Asset prices need to stabilize or we risk a serious economic event.

    And someone with no house, no food, no job should be concerned with getting a vaccine?

    Why care if you are living in a cardboard box?

  133. Phoenix says:

    Pumps, keep enjoying all you have, but remember one thing.

    The most dangerous person you will ever meet is someone who feels they have nothing to lose.
    It would be in your best interest to make sure your country does not create large groups of people like this.

  134. 3b says:

    Lib: I don’t disagree. It’s just marriage today seems like more of a minefield than in the past, but then again, I am just getting older. And some of these issues should have been addressed years ago, but were not at the time. As for cheating my wife and I discussed that years ago, either one of us did it, marriage over. No second chances.

  135. Juice Box says:

    I got the tax credit letter with Biden name on it last week. There is no way I qualify too.

  136. JCer says:

    Pumps you don’t understand the 1970’s economic situation at all, external forces created the inflation, there were supply constraints. If they put money in hands it only would have exacerbated the situation. They are making it rain because they have exhausted their monetary policy options, if we cut the stimulus maybe we trigger the recession we’ve been avoiding for the last 20 years or so.

  137. JCer says:

    Yep JB, same here I somehow am never a beneficiary of any of these policies, I just keep paying taxes. Yet somehow I do not pay enough. I like that they are discussing bring SALT deduction back but none of us will qualify to get it most years.

  138. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jcer,

    What is replacing Chinese slave labor?

    How long before you think machines will replace all aspect of production?

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    As we speak, Chinese workers are slowly being replaced with automation.

  140. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m a history teacher, I know this better than most. It scares the hell out of me.

    Phoenix says:
    July 16, 2021 at 12:06 pm
    Pumps, keep enjoying all you have, but remember one thing.

    The most dangerous person you will ever meet is someone who feels they have nothing to lose.
    It would be in your best interest to make sure your country does not create large groups of people like this.

  141. Phoenix says:

    “But we are no longer a country that cares about anything but ourselves. Our bought and paid for government exists only to enrich the rich (and themselves along the way)”

    Boomers.

    Can’t blame Gen Z for this one.

    “Every generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.”
    — George Orwell

  142. Phoenix says:

    “Marriage today seems like more of a minefield than in the past.”

    Thank greedy lawyers, dumb judges, and a legal system that is stuck in the 1800’s by design, not by accident.

    All claiming to be working to “protect the children” yet really only concerned with money and profits.
    No better than a priest with a tube of Vaseline. Just different.

  143. grim says:

    Love is a Battlefield
    -Pat Benatar

  144. grim says:

    Is this some kind of stealth stimulus? They expect us to spend it all now, then have to pay it all back at tax time?

  145. Juice Box says:

    3B – re: marriage today… divorce lawyer said social media was either a root cause or implicated in some way in pretty much every divorce these days. I know of three marriages that went down the tubes because of it. Social Media allows for connecting with people emotionally in ways that are toxic to marriages, people are using social media when they’re bored or vulnerable, leads to lots of problems with ex-girlfriends and ex-boyfriends, when marriages go thru tough times (they all do) people reach out on Social Media to those that they know like an ex-boyfriend or ex-girlfriend, and it’s leads to trouble more often than not.

  146. grim says:

    Rt up to 1.24 from 1.16 yesterday.

    Heeeeere we go!

  147. 3n says:

    Man shot dead in broad day light yesterday, on a Citi bike, point blank range. NYC
    Is falling apart.

  148. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s how it comes off to me but I have not seen anyone talking about it.

    grim says:
    July 16, 2021 at 12:25 pm
    Is this some kind of stealth stimulus? They expect us to spend it all now, then have to pay it all back at tax time?

  149. leftwing says:

    “Oh, and Tennessee is a f*cking embarrassment to America.”

    Because Nashville unveiled a statue to former Congressman John Lewis yesterday? Dude, that’s pretty racist.

  150. Phoenix says:

    Juice,
    Women cheat quite a bit, but men don’t notice like women do.

    Until technology caught up with them. Cell phones, ring cameras, your spy Alexa, etc.

    Cheating is not as easy as it was in the past.

  151. Phoenix says:

    Guy shot was a gang member. It’s a Soprano’s thing.

  152. Grim says:

    No, John Lewis deserves a statue, more even.

    In NJ, Menendez will get a statue first, before he is even dead.

  153. leftwing says:

    “…the decades of unnecessary deaths and illnesses…”

    …Here we are again, I feel the chemicals kicking in
    It’s getting heavy and I want to run and hide….

  154. Phoenix says:

    Grim,
    Your numbers are right. Just like in the past. Some of us are preparing already.

  155. Walking says:

    My point regarding pre marital counseling , how many times have you heard, well she drank before marriage but I thought she would change once married, she was a bit crazy but great in bed, he used pot occasionally while dating, now he smokes daily and can’t hold a job. Sometimes it takes a 3rd party to go over this and let you know as long as you are ok to raising the family and working 2 jobs to hold the family together while he sleeps the days away go for it.

    You sometimes need to just pop the bubble and see reality

  156. Juice Box says:

    I have not gotten the cash yet. I just got the letter, about the new child tax credit. I did not get any stimulus checks as I don’t qualify. 6 payments of $300 per child under age 6 and $250 per child ages 6 to 17, the remaining 1/2 when you file tax returns next year. Again it’s $3,600 for each child under age 6 and $3,000 for each child ages 6 to 17.

    You have 4 young kids and low income? That is $14,400 cash every year forever, might as well call it universal kids income. Married couples with income with income from $150,000 to $400,000 still qualify for $2000 per kid too or checks $166 per month per kid. I gather that is why you got a deposit Grim….

  157. Grim says:

    Bezos bringing a kid in his rocket trip?

    Rumor is, it’s to stop the media from wishing him dead publicly.

  158. Phoenix says:

    Derek Chauvin tipped the scales pretty violently.

    All over twenty bucks. Ignore all you want the fact that this was the straw that broke the camels back.

    Good luck putting that genie in the bottle now. How should I put that clearly? How about this:

    “That ain’t happenin’

  159. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Understood, but it was done in broad daylight. Just like the Times Sq shooting a couple months back.

  160. Grim says:

    Married couples with income with income from $150,000 to $400,000 still qualify for $2000 per kid too or checks $166 per month per kid. I gather that is why you got a deposit Grim

    Wouldn’t have expected them to set the top bracket all the way to the 4 handle.

  161. Phoenix says:

    Pre marital counseling:

    The person you marry today is not the same person 1 year later, let alone 15 years later.

    The situations are different. The finances, the family, the careers.

    Women want their men to change, men want their women to stay the same.

    Only one of those two is right. And it ain’t the men.

  162. 3b says:

    Juice : Have not been paying attention on child tax credits matter, but isn’t at least a portion of the payments subject to taxes?

  163. Grim says:

    I would assume so.

  164. Juice Box says:

    For anyone that earns I would suggest opt-out of the monthly payments, you can go to the IRS Portal to stop the payments, you will still get the new credits when you file.

    https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/child-tax-credit-update-portal

  165. Juice Box says:

    BTW there is a way to change the bank account and the number of dependents too. We shall see new stories soon enough of massive fraud occur with both. Add 10 kids as dependents and route the money to an offshore bank…Sure why not let me go and get all my baby’s mamas to change the bank accounts to me and add a few dependents….

  166. Juice Box says:

    It’s a bad surprise at tax time next year for anyone that earns. This is a dollar for dollar tax-offset, if you owed $10k last year you might owe $12k this year with the money sent to your bank account in six payments. About a million people have opted out so far.

  167. Juice Box says:

    The shootings in NYC and other cities is not going to slow down anytime soon. Gang wars are way up, most of the guns used in these crimes were sold a long time ago to a straw buyer and made their way up I-95 a decade ago and have been sitting in closets and under beds for years and they are now being passed down to the younger generation.

  168. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Bogleheads say to never opt out. Apparently in past vote buying schemes the claw backs have been eliminated.

  169. Walking says:

    Phoenix, simple marry after 30. The person you are after 30 is closer to 50 than to 28 year old. Yeah people change, stuff happens, nothing is perfect in life. Sometimes life gives you lemons or throws you a curveball.

  170. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Hey that’s what the left wanted. According to them, that’s just equality in action. In this country, everyone deserves a fair shot.

  171. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    I know a few people who went through surprised divorces recently. It’s not just substance abuse and suicide going off the charts. Apparently spending 24×7 with the same person and no end in sight was a bit too much for some

  172. Juice Box says:

    re :” bringing a kid in his rocket trip”

    It seems the physical requirements aren’t too rigorous, and they give you only 1 day of training lol…..

    Also I don’t like the windows on the craft they look too big, as in a safety risk cracking etc, then there is the landing. All rockets take off, not all rockets land this sucker will be traveling at Mach 4 and then slow down during the return and deploy and old fashioned triple parachute. It does not do a controlled descent, glide and landing like the SpaceShip from Virgin Galactic or the old Space Shuttle.

    https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/become-an-astronaut

  173. 3b says:

    In all fairness, some men are crap too. In today’s world of two incomes , some men think that simply because they are the man what they say goes. I would not want my Daughter putting up with that crap.

  174. Libturd says:

    “Elon Musk, Jan 10, 2016
    In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you’re in LA and the car is in NY”

    By 2020, we were promised 1 million robotaxis too.

    Remember the Tesla service stations where they would swap your car battery?”

    Pumps. Who told you housing was going to crash? Most of us, at the worst, said it would stagnate. It only continued to sore due to Covid and the impact it had on the prior burb-to-city trend. At some point, something has got to give. Yes, automation will eventually reduce our need for labor and people will need something to do with their time. But this is still very far away. It’s like AI. It’s been a long time coming and I don’t doubt that it will happen in the more sci-fi definition. But not in our lifetime.

    Back in 2008, the worst Mayor Montclair ever had ran on a platform of bike paths and walkable streets Mayor Fried). Nearly everyone laughed at his ultra-progressive positions, even here in Montclair. Regardless, he said that was the way the world was going and he was going to make Montclair the model of a walkable city. It is now 13 years later and Montclair does not have a single bike path. But I can guarantee you, at some point in the next 50 years, there will be bike paths all over our town.

    So yes, at some point in your lifetime, NYC will once again become one of the most desirable cities in the world to live, work or visit. And at some point in our lifetime, housing will once again be a 4%/year investment. And yes, at some point in our lifetime, inflation and wage inflation will occur. These are all very simple prognostications. But the order and timing of each is the part where you suck.

    Then again, a teacher who feels that pancake in a can will revolutionize the world (of breakfast) and that feels the need to lie about his profession, is hardly someone many would listen to anyhow. Thinking about it, you have a lot in common with Mayor Fried. Not only did both of you frequently lie and make outrageous predictions. But both of you will have your retirements paid by me. I wonder if his grandmother gave him the downpayment for his house? Must be nice.

  175. Ew says:

    nts
    Steven Hoffenberg claimed pedophile Jeffrey Epstein moved in intelligence circles starting in the 1980s
    Hoffenberg served 18 years in prison after pleading guilty in 1995 for bilking investors out of more than a $450 million when he was running Towers Financial
    Epstein worked for Hoffenberg at Towers Financial as a consultant in the 1980s
    He made the claims about Epstein in an interview with British journalist Vicky Ward back in 2002 while he was serving that prison sentence in Massachusetts
    Among the allegations that he made was the Epstein was introduced to Robert Maxwell by a British defense contractor and arms dealer named Douglas Leese
    Hoffenberg claimed Epstein told him he was involved in ‘national security issues’ through his work with with Robert Maxwell and Leese

  176. Hold my beer says:

    Grim

    Just view the tax credit like free float. Like an insurance does with the premiums it collects.

  177. Juice Box says:

    BTW no pressurized space suits for this Blue Origin launch and landing. All it takes is a little leak and the air will escape quickly. This first happened to Russians in the 1960s and again in 1971 the Soyuz 11 capsule landing and the astronauts died even though the landing was perfect, no suits to protect them. They even tried to stop the leak during the decent but ran out of air before the could close the leaky value. They mandated pressurized space suits after that. It happened again during a Russian capsule landing in 2017, an external buckle that is part of the parachute system struck the capsule and caused a welded seam to rupture and depressurize. They did make it home alive in that one thanks to space suits.

    I would pass on this flight…..as the odds are 1 in 100 you won’t make it back in a capsule.

  178. Ew says:

    It could be a fitting end to a great run for Bezos.
    To infinity and beyond!!!

  179. Ew says:

    1:15 most people are too poor to divorce.

  180. Libturd says:

    Opting out is silly. I will forward each payment to one of my many online banking accounts to which I opened for $500 to $1,500 bonuses when they offered them. Lets see. Do I put it in BBVA (Soon to be PNC). Ally? Tiaa-CREF? Novo? Santander? Citi?

    Why give Uncle Sam the interest even if it is half of 1%.

    And I’m with you guys. Never expected to qualify but checked the guidelines last night when I saw the credit in my Chase account. What the hell is giving someone who makes $300,000 a year an advance on their tax credit going to do anyway? Me thinks the FED is out of bullets and the Dems are going to get the credit that the FED would have had they essentially issued the checks. Next tax season is going to be a laugh when many families owe the treasury a boatload of money.

  181. Libturd says:

    I have no desire to go to space. Though, looking at the collective wealth of those who do, they could easily burn their dollars instead of rocket fuel to get them there.

  182. Libturd says:

    Favorite part of the Branson Flight was the shock and fear all of the passengers showed when the shuttle intentionally, but violently detached from the jet plane carrying it.

    Then when there was weightlessness, the different rates at which each passenger unbuckled to go for a float.

  183. Juice Box says:

    How about an un-marriage? Two years ago a male friend of mine filed for divorce,wife was batshit crazy, certifiable and was cheating allot with men and women. Two young kids too. He found out they were never legally married when they got married on the beach in Costa Rica. The paperwork was never filed, nothing to divorce!

    They both co-parent now and she lives with a woman. He kept his 10,000 sq ft home and pays nothing. They did get back together during Covid last summer for a while. Apparently she brought her girlfriend into the relationship too. These are not young people either mid-40s….

  184. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Esx. One of the couple bought a mountain chalet leading up to it as a “getaway.” Getting away from each other apparently. It hadn’t even closed before they split.

    Apparently they are going to walk away with 400k on their primary residence and will both go back to living in their mid 40s the way they did in their early 20s. Neither remarkable in any way. You have to wonder.

  185. Juice Box says:

    Re:” By 2020, we were promised 1 million robotaxis too.”

    Flying cars are not out yet either, plenty of prototypes even electric ones.

  186. Libturd says:

    Heck, we don’t even have interactive television. Text your vote to #12234. Come on now.

  187. Ew says:

    I think people expect too much from marriage.
    That or they are just in a situation where they really hate their spouse.
    Either way the only people that get ahead financially in a divorce are Bezos ex-wife and the lawyers.

  188. Ew says:

    1:12 I find the more curve balls life tosses us the closer we become.

  189. SmallGovConservative says:

    Having been married for 20 years and single for the past 10, there is no doubt that living alone is the simplest, easiest, least stressful way to go through life — but there’s no denying that something is missing. So at some point, if you think you’ve found the ‘right’ woman and want her by your side, what can you do? You attempt to do your due diligence, but you accept the risks and pitfalls, and make the accommodations and compromises that come with marriage — it’s nature’s way.

    Great advice by leftwing over the past couple of days, by the way.

  190. Libturd says:

    It also helps to date and live with the partner for a lot of years. In my case, 7, before marrying.

  191. 3b says:

    Marriage in my opinion is one and done. If it does not work first time around then next time just live together. I know people in their 50s and older who are still looking to find the right one and get married, and this is after 3 and 4 divorces. I was at a wedding a few years ago second time around for the woman very extravagant/ expensive. During the ceremony they did their own vows, and just listening to what one expected the other to do and be, we thought to ourselves this won’t work. They are currently in the divorce process.

  192. Ew says:

    Humility helps too. Understanding not everything revolves around you.

  193. SmallGovConservative says:

    3b says:
    July 16, 2021 at 2:44 pm
    “Marriage in my opinion is one and done. If it does not work first time around…”

    Sometimes marriages end for reasons other than divorce.

  194. Walking says:

    Ew, humility or just not being selfish. We were 8 years before marriage and are at 25 years in.. So yeah any spouse surprises for me are really my fault for not seeing it or not wanting to see it

  195. 3b says:

    Small: Agreed. I meant specifically ones that end in divorce.

  196. Phoenix says:

    Bye Bye Nabisco. And your Oreo’s.

    Another one bites the dust. And another one gone, another one gone, another one bites the dust.

  197. Phoenix says:

    Marry at 30, have kids at 36, divorce at 38, make child support payments until 58 if they go to college 4 years. Plus pay for college. Enjoy Fancy Feast if you can afford it, or Friskies if you can’t.

    Work until you die. Sounds like pleasure.

    Better off knocking one up at 18 and getting that kid thing done early vs later. Judge won’t make you quit college to support a child.

  198. Phoenix says:

    Walking,
    Mine was a type one diabetic. Too many low blood sugar incidents probably short circuited those critical neurons that were keeping her partially stable. Then, like a truss supporting a building….

  199. Bystander says:

    3b,

    This is your only choice left. Which one? Dilemma. We can’t all be Warriors.

    THE WARRIORS.
    THE GRAMERCY RIFFS.
    THE ROGUES.
    TURNBULL AC’S.
    THE ORPHANS.
    THE BASEBALL FURIES.
    THE LIZZIES.
    THE PUNKS.

    ew,

    “It could be a fitting end to a great run for Bezos.
    To infinity and beyond!!!”

    Sorry, did you not see 2001? He kind of look like Star baby

  200. Libturd says:

    I told Gator before she married me (since I have always been against formal marriage) if she divorces me, I will never work another day on the books for the rest of my life. I also told her I would sell off every asset, turn it into bullion and bury it somewhere out of the country. It’s not that hard to sneak 44 pounds of bullion into a foreign country. Especially if I drive (hint, hint).

  201. Libturd says:

    All true.

  202. Walking says:

    Substitute pounds for ounces and bullion for whats in libs pants and you have the Mrs side of the true story :)

  203. Phoenix says:

    Lib,

    Try and take your kids there and let me know how that works out.

    Or I guess you could leave them behind. That might work.

  204. Libturd says:

    Yes, kids would have to reunite once they turned 18.

    It worked (out) for my selfish dad.

  205. Libturd says:

    My dad was not allowed in the state of NJ. He once took us without visitation rights (kidnapping), while failing to pay alimony. Or something close to that.

  206. Ew says:

    Hardball a good marriage trait. That and the laws of attraction.

  207. Ew says:

    Sounds like chaos Lib. Suppose if you survive that. You are good to go.

  208. Juice Box says:

    Co-worker of mine got his wife arrested for domestic violence. Boy was she quick to agree to his divorce terms, as long as he did not press charges. He is a total POS by the way, used to yell and scream nasty stuff at her all the time over the phone m his office. I told him the women at work were going to call HR and to take it outside to his car. Turns out she cheated but he still was a POS.

  209. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s wrong to expect every one of his calls to hit or come when stated. Instead, acknowledge the progress already made. It’s insane how fast technology is moving.

    Libturd says:
    July 16, 2021 at 1:30 pm
    “Elon Musk, Jan 10, 2016
    In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you’re in LA and the car is in NY”

    By 2020, we were promised 1 million robotaxis too.

  210. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Oh stop. Sh!t on me some more. Most people were crying that housing was dead. I was told numerous times that wages couldn’t support current pricing and property taxes…that nj was dead. I was the only sane voice saying otherwise, but we forget that.

    I called the next housing market run up 8 years in advance…I stated the years it would happen and you think it was an easy obvious call? Just stop, you are really spitting in my face for an amazing call. If you consider yourself an unbiased good guy, then act like it…say “great call,” I should have listened.

    “Pumps. Who told you housing was going to crash? Most of us, at the worst, said it would stagnate. It only continued to sore due to Covid and the impact it had on the prior burb-to-city trend. At some point, something has got to give. Yes, automation will eventually reduce our need for labor and people will need something to do with their time. But this is still very far away. It’s like AI. It’s been a long time coming and I don’t doubt that it will happen in the more sci-fi definition. But not in our lifetime.”

  211. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Blame Covid all you want…at the end of the day, Covid doesn’t make someone want to start a family and buy a house. If Covid had not come, was the city going to be able to absorb all this demand? Hell no. It was inevitable that the millennials were going to look for cheaper housing with room for a family to play and grow in a town with a good a school system.

  212. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My 12 year anniversary is tomorrow. Relationships can become difficult without compromise. You have to suck up your pride sometimes to reach a compromise. Know what battles you can win, and which one’s you can’t. Some relationships, they get neglected for too long by both sides, and before you know it, you both have changed as a person and there is no saving it. Relationships are tough and complicated because people are…sometimes it just takes listening and understanding to save the relationship.

  213. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – The concept is pull forward demand. You really need to stop being a closed minded dolt, estimates are 200,000 families fled NYC during the pandemic driving up prices in NY Metro and many other cities.

    The pandemic has pulled forward a ton of demand for homes. There is NO DENYING it even in your mind. Nationally there is now over 15 Trillion in debt out there now, most of it mortgages constitutes about 70% of household debt. Student loans are another 11%. All this backed by Uncle Sam.

    Debt is fine, defaults due to too much debt are not…We could lose about 4 million homeowners due to this recession we are in now without more intervention, the only reason it has not occurred yet is the moratoriums and bailouts, any further bad news on the economy it will be worse. There are still 13 million people on unemployment, there are many millions more not paying rent. We cannot paper over it, and wishful thinking that companies will provide many middle class jobs well guess what they are not hiring they are outsourcing, and some are paying $15 an hour, lots of people are going to get destroyed. Small businesses are not coming back there are tons of closed small businesses in every city. Excess closures of small business over the last year and a half number around a quarter million according to the FED. People cannot afford any more dollar deflation and it’s going to get worse.

  214. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – Congrats! You have a wonderful wife as many of us do because they put up with us Men. Now don’t screw it up and by some cheap jewelry. Go spend a few on a memorable gift. BTW you are still pretty young, perhaps consider expanding the family it’s really never too late!

  215. 3b says:

    Juice : It’s simply amazing that one can just ignore all that you just posted.

  216. Phoenix says:

    “because they put up with us Men.”

    As if they are all angels.

    Spare me.

  217. Fabius Maximus says:

    WTF on the advance payments. So do they send one half a check if the other does not opt out?

    Joint filers: If you filed jointly on your most recent federal tax return, your updates will only affect your, and not your spouse’s, advance payments.

  218. 3b says:

    Juice: Most people only have two kids today, and for many it’s one and done. Women are also waiting longer to have children, and are skipping the men altogether. I read son
    somewhere this week that apparently some new surburbanites are already tiring of the burbs, and while not necessarily wanting an urban area, would really prefer a small town or city. A lot of these suburbs offer nothing in terms of things to do. Just malls and strip malls and fast food restaurants.

  219. 3b says:

    Juice Lots of men put up with psycho women too. I knew a guy who put up with physical abuse from his wife for years. He would not hit her back. My brothers ex wife was an evil psycho bitch!! Took him to the cleaners!!

  220. Phoenix says:

    “He is a total POS by the way, used to yell and scream nasty stuff at her all the time over the phone m his office. I told him the women at work were going to call HR and to take it outside to his car..”

    I guess he should be nice to a woman that assaults him. You don’t know what she does to him at home.
    My ex was a nasty person. I’m sure many women and men would not like what I said back to her either, but just because you are married to a woman doesn’t mean you should have to put up with her garbage.

    But there is never a shortage of “white knights.” How many women have lied in bars in order to get men beat up by other men. It’s a game to some of them.

    Then you have the nuts that abuse a guy so bad they convince him to start up a generator and breathe in the carbon monoxide. Or like Mrs. Smart who convinced some kids to kill her husband.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/style/wp/2019/01/15/feature/the-enduring-appeal-of-pamela-smart-the-misunderstood-murderess/

  221. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Look at the trends before Covid…it was already starting to pick up. Then Covid came and almost tanked the market…those first months were bad for real estate. Then people that were already thinking of moving within the year or two all started acting on it. That’s all Covid did, accelerated it. Covid didn’t make majority of people move, they already wanted to and were going to do it no matter what. They were coming of age and ready to start settling down.

    Are we going to take anecdotal stories of the minority that left because of Covid and remote work and apply this as the reason for gang buster demand for real estate? Come on, mannn!!!

    Juice Box says:
    July 16, 2021 at 5:28 pm
    Pumps – The concept is pull forward demand. You really need to stop being a closed minded dolt, estimates are 200,000 families fled NYC during the pandemic driving up prices in NY Metro and many other cities.

    The pandemic has pulled forward a ton of demand for homes. There is NO DENYING it even in your mind. Nationally there is now over 15 Trillion in debt out there now, most of it mortgages constitutes about 70% of household debt. Student loans are another 11%. All this backed by Uncle Sam.

  222. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This below and the bailout for renters with the eviction law are now clear signs to me that the FED is fighting deflation. They would never do this if they were fighting inflation, they would simply let them fail.

    “We could lose about 4 million homeowners due to this recession we are in now without more intervention, the only reason it has not occurred yet is the moratoriums and bailouts,”

  223. The Great Pumpkin says:

    But homeowners and renters failing brings on deflationary headwinds that the fed can’t fight at this time.

  224. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cheers, brother!! Isn’t that the truth!!!lol

    Juice Box says:
    July 16, 2021 at 5:39 pm
    Pumps – Congrats! You have a wonderful wife as many of us do because they put up with us Men.

  225. PumpkinFace says:

    We are going to assume that people who WFH are physically chained to their desk and never leave their home rather than assuming they go out and do everything they normally did except commute to an office and maybe go out even more with the additional flexibility. Nailed it!

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    July 16, 2021 at 6:08 pm

    Are we going to take anecdotal stories of the minority that left because of Covid and remote work and apply this as the reason for gang buster demand for real estate? Come on, mannn!!!

  226. JCer says:

    Pumps, of course they are fighting deflation. Do you have any idea how much economic activity went poof during the Covid lock downs? Some businesses were able to tweak their business model and move heavily into take out food, outdoor dining, etc. Some were able to increase prices to stay afloat but to think tons of Americans lost their jobs would not impact demand was crazy thinking. I think what many missed was the increase in demand for goods as discretionary spending shifted from dining out, bars, events, vacation, commuting, work clothes, etc was all funneled towards other things. This is part of the reason for the inflation not only was production off but demand was up. Unfortunately for us we didn’t notice it all the money we didn’t spend because it probably just about covers the 42k in rent I wasn’t able to collect. If not for stimulus it likely would have spread through the economy like COVID, but many businesses did well last year, notice that doesn’t mean they will take care of their staff mind you but the execs are getting their bonuses.

  227. BRT says:

    friend works at Wakefern, parent company of Shop Rite. Last summer, they had sky high revenue numbers. They lied to the staff and said they were struggling as justification for a lot of layoffs.

  228. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How many people do you personally know who bought a house because of COVID that weren’t going to buy previously? I know zero.

    PumpkinFace says:
    July 16, 2021 at 6:39 pm
    We are going to assume that people who WFH are physically chained to their desk and never leave their home rather than assuming they go out and do everything they normally did except commute to an office and maybe go out even more with the additional flexibility. Nailed it!

  229. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I know people buying because they have kids and want the house FOR THEIR FAMILY.

  230. chicagofinance says:

    There are many here that posted through 2005-2010….. don’t lecture us about anything. We blogged through an entire bubble, mirage, bust, and aftermath cycle. We know what real estate conditions things look like in real time, and the distortions that are embedded in everything that is reported.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    July 16, 2021 at 4:57 pm
    Oh stop. Sh!t on me some more. Most people were crying that housing was dead. I was told numerous times that wages couldn’t support current pricing and property taxes…that nj was dead. I was the only sane voice saying otherwise, but we forget that.

    I called the next housing market run up 8 years in advance…I stated the years it would happen and you think it was an easy obvious call? Just stop, you are really spitting in my face for an amazing call. If you consider yourself an unbiased good guy, then act like it…say “great call,” I should have listened.

  231. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Told you this would happen.

    “Yeah let’s blame all the homeless people for why Austin sucks now and not the thousands of techbros moving in jacking up the rents and cost of living”

    https://www.fox7austin.com/news/austin-drops-again-on-best-places-to-live-in-the-usa-list

  232. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Peaked…and now because all those businesses moved to Austin they are exactly like where they came from (nyc metro/sf metro). You want to keep prices and taxes low…then don’t have good jobs to support it.

  233. Fabius Maximus says:

    “200,000 families fled NYC ”

    In the sprit of “making new used cars!” are these folks taking the house with them? In all these discussions we see Micro events justified with Macro Stats!

    For who fled Manhattan, relocating to your 2nd home in the Hamptons has no impact as you still have the NYC, Pied a Terre. Relocating back from your rental share to your parents basement, your house mates will replace you or your landlord rents on.

    If you are renting in a Sh1tHole and you are just covering the Nut, for the most part you have no choice but to hold out where you are.

  234. Hold my beer says:

    The horror. Austin dropped from 3rd to 5th best metro area in the US. NYC metro area is 118th.

    Are you trying out as a writer for cable news pumps?

  235. Ew says:

    Nice property adjacent to our place just sold in 5 days.
    And the beat goes on. Good Shabbos bitchez

  236. PumpkinFace says:

    How many people do you know who aren’t allowed to leave their house because they work from home?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    July 16, 2021 at 8:25 pm
    How many people do you personally know who bought a house because of COVID that weren’t going to buy previously? I know zero.

  237. Phoenix says:

    The behind-the-scenes technological challenges in Capitol riot cases have increasingly spilled into the open. The Justice Department last Thursday began disclosing in court filings that it had contracted with a vendor in late May to build a mammoth, “master evidence tracker” and database.

    The department awarded Deloitte Financial Advisory Services the first $6.1 million of up to $25.9 million for services through May 2022, with possible extensions, through the U.S. attorney’s office spearheading the Capitol investigation in Washington, federal procurement records show

  238. grim says:

    AC casinos doing record business now, people are happy.

  239. No One says:

    I personally bought a house in Florida due to remote work brought about by covid. And met several other people in my new town who did the same.
    We hang in different circles than you Pumps.

  240. 3b says:

    No one: He just does not understand that! Astounding!!

  241. Phoenix says:

    Joyce,
    Didn’t see that. Not surprising. But most of these things start with this:

    “Police said officers received a call about a black man seen stumbling along in the middle of the snowy street wearing a short-sleeved shirt and were sent to perform a wellness check.”

    A phone call. A “concerned” citizen. An “disgruntled” wife. A woman who was “challenged” in central park when asked to curb her dog. An ex-wife who constantly calls “welfare” checks on her ex husband when he has custody, using anything as an excuse (that police will never ask for proof and can just be a ridiculous lie) -this one happens to me when she doesn’t get what she wants-but I have read stories of many this same thing happens and worse. Freak ex-wives have a forum on how to use the system.

    The phone call is what makes the whole thing legit.

    Feeling bored? Pick a random car or person. Call the police. Make up a lie. Any lie. Sit back and watch what happens. Don’t worry, no one is going to prosecute you. Neighbor has dog poop in your yard, when he leaves for work call the police and claim he is an erratic driver. Enjoy your coffee while he gets pulled over and is late to work. You think it doesn’t happen?

    I’m not really suggesting that, but it is, really is, just that simple. Using the police to harass and intimidate is not just kiddies using the SWAT method. It’s your angry middle class mommies as well. It’s what people “perceive” is what lights the fire.

    One person “perceives” a flat tire being changed, another thinks it’s tires being stolen.
    One person “perceives” a man in the park, another sees a potential rapist.
    One person “perceives” a man stumbling and “supposedly” needing help or maybe a criminal, the other is just a guy walking home in the snow from his job.

    But when you combine the “perception,” which sometimes is just plain evil and not a faulty perception at all with military police attitudes like were used in Iraq, you just might get a bad outcome. For some of these callers, I truly believe this is EXACTLY what they wanted. It’s no mistake. They want you hassled, arrested , kicked out of what they believe is their neighborhood, or for some, that the person they called about is eliminated permanently by police. Don’t put it past them.

  242. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It was no 1 for three years straight. Due to its success of bringing high paying jobs, it is now going down the rankings because, get this, it’s becoming expensive. Whoa!! Who knew that could happen with an abundance of good paying jobs.

    A place is cheap for a reason. It means you can’t get good jobs. A few do, but the majority don’t. Hence, they can’t drive up the price of everything making the location “cheap.”

    Hold my beer says:
    July 16, 2021 at 10:26 pm
    The horror. Austin dropped from 3rd to 5th best metro area in the US. NYC metro area is 118th.

    Are you trying out as a writer for cable news pumps?

  243. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are a Mental midget.

    PumpkinFace says:
    July 16, 2021 at 10:56 pm
    How many people do you know who aren’t allowed to leave their house because they work from home?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    July 16, 2021 at 8:25 pm
    How many people do you personally know who bought a house because of COVID that weren’t going to buy previously? I know zero.

  244. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Case study on what I was saying. You were always going there, it just accelerated your decision. Thanks.

    No One says:
    July 17, 2021 at 7:44 am
    I personally bought a house in Florida due to remote work brought about by covid. And met several other people in my new town who did the same.
    We hang in different circles than you Pumps.

  245. Phoenix says:

    Pumps,
    Florida is a place that boomers go to shelter their money from taxes. Or anyone else with money goes to shelter their money from taxes.

    Or for drug dealers. They like it as well. And just plain old people, cause it’s warm and inexpensive compared to other places in America.

    And you will probably move, and leave your debt as well, judging by the comments you post. I can’t see you staying in Wayne supporting all of those hardworking teachers with your tax dollars.

  246. leftwing says:

    SGC, TY, appreciate your posts as well.

    Phoenix, as you likely know, documentation and notice is everything. Each is key.

    Document each time your ex- calls the police on you. Send that perfunctory documentation and notice to each of the police, your township, your ex’s law firm, the Court, and obviously your ex-.

    No arguments, no treats in there, keep it very short and factual with the one line conclusion that you are being harassed and the parties receiving the notice are complicit. You almost don’t want a response or a ton of detail, you’re simply building a record. Certified mail and email.

    When it gets fat enough file with the Court and against the other parties civilly. File re: the ex’s lawyer at the ethics committee. It is a two way street…..it may be on a hill and the other party may be at the top of the street, but it does work both ways…

    And this is horrible, but so is the world of Family Court and your ex- it seems, so if you haven’t already get cameras discretely in your home so your interactions with your daughter are recorded because you know where she’ll go eventually……

  247. BRT says:

    Case study on what I was saying. You were always going there, it just accelerated your decision. Thanks.

    So, just as long as everyone is going there, it doesn’t count?

  248. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Don’t forget the one of the biggest groups: deadbeat parent running away from child alimony.

    Phoenix says:
    July 17, 2021 at 11:05 am
    Pumps,
    Florida is a place that boomers go to shelter their money from taxes. Or anyone else with money goes to shelter their money from taxes.

    Or for drug dealers. They like it as well. And just plain old people, cause it’s warm and inexpensive compared to other places in America

  249. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one didn’t just plan this out of nowhere…people like him have been planning this for years. That’s like if Lib went to Costa Rica right now…don’t blame Covid…he was always going there.

    I’m sorry, it’s laughable when I see headlines blaming Covid for the run up in pricing. It accelerated it, but if people weren’t planning on moving, they stayed where they are. Yes, you have the sprinkles of the young single worker riding out Covid in some remote location as some sort of adventure, but those kids were always going to come back to the city after Covid.

    The people moving to rural locations were the people that always move to the poconos type setting in search of cheap housing during a housing run up. Those are the millennials that don’t have a good job or mommy/daddy to help them. That’s why they are going out there, it’s where they can afford a house. Due to remote work talk, some of these people opted for really far out rural like upstate NY which is just plain ol stupid. Not much demand for housing out there and they will have a hard time selling.

    BRT says:
    July 17, 2021 at 1:09 pm
    Case study on what I was saying. You were always going there, it just accelerated your decision. Thanks.

    So, just as long as everyone is going there, it doesn’t count?

  250. PumpkinFace says:

    BRT,
    This is all you need to know: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=euPiKKMsR8E

  251. chicagofinance says:

    I just watched the whole thing. What are your questions?

    Phoenix says:
    July 16, 2021 at 7:02 am
    For you finance guys. Real or propaganda?

    https://youtu.be/9RbL8lTsITY

  252. 3b says:

    It gets worse on nights and weekends.

  253. BRT says:

    Everyone is planning their scape from NJ. You seem to think it’s not real. I’ll come visit every summer. I can rent a nice shore house for what I pay in property taxes.

  254. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    Do you really believe this run up in housing demand is because of Covid. You really think this kind of demand that causes bidding wars is only due to Covid?

    Housing demand is based on demographic spending patterns. It’s not dictated by a pandemic. Put it this way. If Covid happened in 2010, housing wouldn’t be going up. You couldn’t give away a house in 2010 because there was no supply of buyers. Point is, Covid didn’t create this supply of buyers, demographics did.

  255. Libturd says:

    There are armed roving gangs of BMX bikes, quads and motorcycles terrorizing NYC. It’s like Mad Max. Pumps, do you know a single person who lives in New York City? About 1 out of 4 who work in my old office used to live there. I know of only one who still does. All of them are in either their late 40s, 50s or 60s. They are all done raising children and chose to live in the city because they liked it as well as the cheap, short commute. You are so friggin’ clueless. This is all going to end terribly. All of this unnecessary stimulus is about to destroy our country.

  256. No One says:

    It’s all 3 big central banks, US Fed, Eurozone, Japan. Interest rates fully repressed, so savers have no safe place to get positive returns. Stocks get pushed up by that, and the speculative stuff the most. Along with the crypto and who knows what else. High prices of financial assets today mean low or negative returns in years ahead. Unless you magically think all companies are going to grow earnings 10% for the next 10 years. They won’t. The government is adding debt fast to spend mostly on current consumption, because it’s currently free on an inflation adjusted basis. Who knows when or how it unravels.

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