From Bloomberg:
A Typical U.S. Home Is Now Valued at $320,662 — 20% More Than a Year Ago
Mortgage rates are creeping higher, yet the U.S. real estate market is still breaking records.
Home values on average jumped almost 20% in the past year, the most ever, according to a new report from Zillow. A typical house is now worth $320,662 — an increase of more than $50,000 from December 2020.
After two years of surging prices for homes across the country, anxious buyers had hoped 2022 would bring some relief, as policy makers plan interest rates hikes that could cool down the market. That’s yet to happen though, with strong demand from millennials and a shortage of available homes still propping up prices. Mortgage rates just reached their highest level since the pandemic began, but at 3.56% are still historically low.
“Neither high prices nor slim inventories have deterred buyers so far,” Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow, said in the report.
Although month-over-month home values had decelerated since July, they jumped 1.2% in November and 1.4% in December. There’s also now a record low number of available properties — only 923,000 homes, down almost 20% since December 2020. When compared with December 2019, that’s a 40.5% decrease.
And for those who can’t afford to purchase a home, there has been some relief in rent prices. Monthly growth in December was 0.7%, the lowest increase since February. Still, rents are up 15.7% year-over-year, with the average renter now paying $1,855 each month.
Rents rose in all 50 of the largest metro areas in the U.S., led by Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas.
First
Went to a open house over the weekend in fair haven ….it was serious under priced ….
From National Mortgage Professional:
Housing Bubble? Buyers Say Yes, Economist Says No
Historically fast home-price growth has homebuyers and sellers worried the market has become detached from reality. But Redfin’s chief economist says rising mortgage rates and buyers who can afford their homes are preventing a bubble.
According to a survey in a new report from Redfin, 77% of homebuyers and sellers believe there’s a housing price bubble in the area where they live. Meanwhile, 44% of real estate agents believe there’s a housing bubble in the market where they work.
…
Still, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather doesn’t believe the current market is in a bubble.
“Homebuyers and sellers are rightfully concerned about how fast prices are rising, especially those who remember the housing market crash during the Great Recession,” he said. “If this rate of price growth were to continue for another year, I would be worried about a bubble, too, but I predict home-price growth will slow significantly in 2022.”
He added, “What we’re going through right now is closer to a ripple in the water than a bubble. Mortgage rates are already going up, which will likely stabilize demand and reduce the risk of a bubble that could burst.”
Average 30-year mortgage interest rates have already risen roughly 0.5 percentage points since the beginning of the year, landing at 3.56% in the week ending Jan. 20, and they’re likely to continue increasing.
I’ve followed Galloway for a while. He may appeal to others here.
https://www.profgalloway.com/tell-me-a-story/
Phoenix
I’d thought you appreciate the smoothie post on last thread.
Lefty,
The last two paragraphs were great.
blind
The darkest side of our idolatry of innovators is that we become blind to the costs incurred by those who are least able to bear them — and we protect those who least need protection. It bears repeating. Holmes is going to prison because she defrauded investors — specifically, members of the Valley aristocracy and the global elite. Tim Draper led her seed round, and Rupert Murdoch invested $100 million. That’s what brings the feds to your door. Remember Martin Shkreli, the guy who raised the price of a life-saving treatment needed by AIDS patients 56x just because he could? He’s in prison, but not for price gouging. He was convicted of defrauding … investors.
Our laws reflect our values. What we hold dear, who we deem precious (i.e. who needs protection). We’ve decided the rule of law in the U.S. must be a warrior for corporations and old, wealthy investors. Teen girls and rural American families burying opiate addicts? Fuck you, you’re on your own. Who’s going to jail? No member of the Sackler family. Nor this guy.
Life is so rich.
Lefty,
The last two paragraphs were great.
blind
The darkest side of our idolatry of innovators is that we become blind to the costs incurred by those who are least able to bear them — and we protect those who least need protection. It bears repeating. Holmes is going to prison because she defrauded investors — specifically, members of the Valley aristocracy and the global elite. Tim Draper led her seed round, and Rupert Murdoch invested $100 million. That’s what brings the feds to your door. Remember Martin Shkreli, the guy who raised the price of a life-saving treatment needed by AIDS patients 56x just because he could? He’s in prison, but not for price gouging. He was convicted of defrauding – investors.
Our laws reflect our values. What we hold dear, who we deem precious (i.e. who needs protection). We’ve decided the rule of law in the U.S. must be a warrior for corporations and old, wealthy investors. Teen girls and rural American families burying opiate addicts? Fuck you, you’re on your own. Who’s going to jail? No member of the Sackler family. Nor this guy.
Life is so rich.
Lefty,
The last two paragraphs were great.
blind
The darkest side of our idolatry of innovators is that we become blind to the costs incurred by those who are least able to bear them — and we protect those who least need protection. It bears repeating. H0lmes is going to prison because she defrauded investors — specifically, members of the Valley aristocracy and the global elite. Tim Draper led her seed round, and Rupert Murdoch invested $100 million. That’s what brings the feds to your door. Remember Martin Shkreli, the guy who raised the price of a life-saving treatment needed by AIDS patients 56x just because he could? He’s in prison, but not for price gouging. He was convicted of defrauding – investors.
Our laws reflect our values. What we hold dear, who we deem precious (i.e. who needs protection). We’ve decided the rule of law in the U.S. must be a warrior for corporations and old, wealthy investors. Teen girls and rural American families burying 0piate addicts? Fukc you, you’re on your own. Who’s going to jail? No member of the Sackler family. Nor this guy.
Life is so rich.
As for whether or not we are in a housing bubble. I posit that we are around 2004, which is when I bought our multi. Though it’s purely crystal ball speaking, right now, the feeling of being priced out is really increasing. Combine this with the average investors newfound need to diversify into hard assets (as the stock market corrects) and the fact the homebuilders are back up to max capacity. It’s a recipe for a coming disaster. I’d say we are either two to three years from the cycle peaking and turning back down.
I may have some surprising news for you all in the near future. But don’t want to jinx it.
I may have some surprising news for you all in the near future. But don’t want to jinx it.
You’re slated to possibly be the next James Bond?
I think I look more like a potential Bond nemesis than a secret agent.
Futures going south yet again. When does it end? My 401K has the ‘rona.
Libturd is gonna sell his multi, quit his job, and become a celebrity peloton trainer.
See. You are never selling the multi. Your need to kvetch is greater.
Libturd says:
January 24, 2022 at 8:35 am
As for whether or not we are in a housing bubble. I posit that we are around 2004, which is when I bought our multi
ARKK opening up 5% below again, in the 60s now. Everything I’m short is in the range of 5% down as well. Where’s the face ripper?
Galloway’s uses Elizabeth Holmes as an example?
They literally delivered black boxes that did not work. Wallgreens had setup Theranos “wellness centers” in 41 locations and was in the process of remodeling about 900 stores for one in every store. Walgreens out about $500 million alone including $100 million dollar fee given to Theranos.
There was an scientist insider that testified against her Surekha Gangakhedkar, who testified Elizabeth Holmes knew they black boxes did not work. It was a scam that harmed real patients, as they were using the machines to test real blood. They may have only gotten her on wire fraud because it’s just easier to convict without more evidence, but is should not be compared to WeWork. It’s just not the same thing. Also George Schultz has been dead for a year. She did rip off some powerful people but that was not the main reason for her indictment, it was Walgreens and the patients.
re: peloton trainer.
I thought they might ice Wags on Billions last night, after getting rid of Mafee and Dollar Bill. I just don’t see it going past this season, this whole dumping greed is good, for greed is bad may not sell with their base of viewers. What are they going to do next invest in carbon capture?
The economist at Redfin above was in high school during the last bubble. I watched a few videos of her, she says we are at a plateau in pricing, and rents will continue to go up, and there is not enough new housing coming to market. Nothing radical there.
The last housing bubble 6 million homes went into foreclosure, and many millions more mortgages were modified to keep them out of foreclosure. We are not seeing that happen anytime soon, as long as people are working. Job availability is high, really high these days. Wages are rising as companies compete for people to take their jobs. So are we headed for a more normal reversion to the mean and a softening in home prices? I would think that if pandemic driven price increases are over then yes, we are going to plateau for a while.
I don’t see a bubble in safe areas with support for policing, modern infrastructure, respect for property and individual rights, access to recreation. There has been a psychological shift and a great migration is underway. Lockdowns had something to do with it.
In Democrat run cities that have been handed over to the homeless and BLM I think they have a big problem. You’re a prisoner to the criminals and power hungry politicians. People are going to continue fleeing from those areas and businesses will continue to close. I don’t see an increase in housing demand on the horizon in those areas except for flip houses.
Higher wages will hurt businesses. I think we are seeing this already. Easy money is over. Interest rates will rise either when this correction ends or when the FED raises them. This too will impact home prices. Do I see an overnight collapse? Nope. I see the cycle turning, like a ship.
On whether real estate is a bubble/not a bubble, I wonder what is the data regarding debt financing real estate. This time we’ve also had an asset bubble – stocks, bonds, bitcrap, all going up and helping people cash out and buy real estate. I think that’s helping the high-end market, I’m not sure how far down the housing market that goes.
It’s all part of the “trickle down” Federal Reserve central planning for “stimulus” – take away all returns from lower risk assets like savings accounts to force people into more speculative assets. But it’s much harder to follow the flow. Is mid-end housing benefitting from 20-somethings cashing in their bitcrap gambles to convert into 20% down payments? Is low end getting helped by the free checks from govt on top of regular checks?
How much real estate is being bought as an investment rather than for living in?
Definitely housing prices are rising faster than wages, but perhaps they’ve been rising in line with household net worth of the top 50%. Falling stocks and bitcoin cannot be good for housing demand.
I don’t know the answers but I think these are questions to explore regarding real estate in the US.
NoOne,
there was a report that said 1 in 10 homebuyers recently sold crypto to buy their home. The run in stocks and other assets is likely what caused the housing purchases. In 2008, it was kinda the reverse with home prices driving the credit. I’m going to assume that the 50% haircut in crypto just wiped out most of the gains. That’s 10% of buyers….gone. Wait until we are allowed to foreclose and put more homes on the market. It ain’t going to be pretty.
re: “there was a report that said 1 in 10 homebuyers recently sold crypto” “10% of buyers….gone.” Not so sure the effect they might have on housing.
Those studies are all skewed. They say 1 in 4 Americans bought stock and 1 in 1o Americans traded crypto. I have my doubts about those numbers and whether they actually even made enough money to even pay capital gains taxes.
I don’t know about that if things have changed all that much in the last year or two. Few middle-class taxpayers have any capital gains or dividends to report on their tax returns in the first place. There may small small percentage that made some on crypto or equities enough to pay capital gains taxes etc when they sold, but enough to move the housing markets?
It will be interesting to see when the tax data comes out.
DOW currently down 750 points.
Thanks, Joe!
How’s everyone liking their Crypto investments today?
Oh, I’m going to be rich. I just hope our government didn’t fukc us all Japanese style.
Is that better Chicago? :P
“What’s wrong with the adults today? They think it’s OK to steal plane seats, I think it’s OK to shoot their tenants, and they think it’s OK to do racist things in a shake shop”
Craziest thing..all in CT. Teacher leaving kids behind, person shooting tenant. That Robek’s shake shop is right in my town. People are losing it.
On bubble front, again..why is everyone looking at 2007 collapse? Did we not have bubble collapse in 1990 without ARMs, NINJA. Those buyers were getting solid 15/30 year fixed products and credit worthy as well? There is gas and a match. One economic downturn and housing collapses. Also, they changed rules a few years ago so now 50% DTI qualifies? How do you account for such non-sense in housing models.
Didn’t that poisonous a-hole O’Dell Beckham Jr. get paid in Crypto this year?
Karma
re: Did we not have bubble collapse in 1990..
Different dynamic it was not a crash, as housing prices slowly fell in the 1990s…It was something like 8 year long slog, most of the 1990s until DOT COM 1.0 came along and prices only declined about 14% over that period.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kYEb
We did, but it was different.. Far more regionalized, less nationwide, and there was a significant component of that associated with overbuilding/new development in the Northeast.
https://njrereport.com/80sbubble.htm
re: Beckham lol…..
Anyway as far as smart money and crypto. The smart money is not all on crypto. There are very few big hedge funds and only not all that many big money investors in crypto. Very small percentage of assets.. Here is a report from PWC if anyone is interested.
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/financial-services/pdf/3rd-annual-pwc-elwood-aima-crypto-hedge-fund-report-(may-2021).pdf
Crypto seems to be mostly about smart IT guys trying to lure dumb money into pump and dump. Dumb money can include people smart about IT but dumb about investments. And then multitudes of momentum chasers that go after anything that has gone up in the past. Think Pumpkin and his big investment call of a year ago. Who spent a year parroting marketing blurbs for a year to try to get even dumber people to follow him. I wish he’d get into NFTs and then spend all his time on those forums pretending to be “diamond hands”.
The 25th-best wealth advisor in Connecticut just moved up a notch.
There is more justice in a 12 oz Smoothie on Tik Tok then there is in a courtroom in CT.
#smoothietoo
For any of you who has a kid in college or a kid in high school taking dual credits have them look into Covid grants. It’ seems to be a nationwide federal program. Some colleges are giving away money to students just for being on campus. I don’t know if it’s only for public and community colleges. I think the grants are from $400-$1,500. Even high school kids taking dual credit though a community college are eligible.
Well boys,
It appears one crisis is coming to an end, at least temporarily. Covid is slowing down.
But we need another, cause you can’t let a good crisis go to waste. It’s how you profit.
Wadda you say, let’s have Sleepy Joe take on the shirtless horseback riding Putin…
Thanks HMB. Will look into it.
No one,
My big investment call is for long-term. If you think I’m abandoning high growth ark funds, you are mistaken. I am patiently waiting to buy in and hold long-term for some amazing gains. Gift from god and I’m going to take full advantage. Life is good.
Eric Clapton claims people who’ve had the COVID vaccine are victims of ‘mass formation hypnosis’
Or maybe we were just forced to by our employers, as some believe that our employers should be able to make us get them, but not the government.
Shut your trap Old Goat.
Just hoping this market keeps diving before I can buy back in with the 401k. Saving big time money right now.
College?
Ahh Bah Humbug.
Mike Rowe says Dirty Jobs are where it’s at.
Says you can make more money jumping head first into a septic tank with a hose to clean it out.
Says you should “man up” and do real work instead of being a whimpy paper pusher.
Be a producer. Hahaha.
Guy is the biggest turd there is.
What I think of when I think of Pumpy. Just can’t help it.
https://youtu.be/PcRyjkYdDxM?t=25
I should put a warning on that, sorry. Please don’t look as you will never forget this, ever.
No going back.
Juice,
Ok not a crash.. but buying in CT from 2011 – 2018 was also a decline in value by 10%. We will see same thing going forward and prices will stagnant for years, even losing value vs inflation therefore restricting movements of younger folks It will hurt economy badly.
Phoenix,
I see Pumps more like this.
https://youtu.be/BbdJJ-azcfQ?t=14
Remember this amazing hit?
https://youtu.be/sFacWGBJ_cs
Remember that chart I posted the other day? If Nasdaq breaks support at 13K, next support level is 11K.
There is something to it Phoenix.
Forcing someone to take an experimental shot is a human rights violation. If you have polled right before covid if anyone supported it and almost no one would.
Fear and isolation has fvcjed up a lot of people’s thinking. Others support it for partisan and profit reasons but those who support mandating these shots as a solution to the pandemic has been manipulated. 3-4 shots note with no end in sight is madness.
The masks are the same thing. The cdc now even admits they don’t work but people keep wearing them. They’ve been broken.
Mike Rowe doesn’t look down on the people who might not have the best writing or math skills, but are willing to hard and useful work, and do it well. What’s wrong with celebrating the value of people who work with their hands, people who figure out how to provide the necessities most people take for granted? People who can thrive in a field, make a decent income for themselves, provide useful goods and services, without needing to go to some liberal arts college to take classes they don’t care about. Much better for someone to become a happy, useful, plumber than an angry, useless, sociology major seeking the cancellation of their college loans.
When I think of Pumpkin, I remember the Surfin’ Bird scene from the John Waters movie Pink Flamingos. There are no linkable videos online for reasons made clear in the description below:
Set to the peppy sounds of The Trashmen’s Surfin’ Bird, a young man pulls his ankles behind his head, revealing his very large, gaping asshole. He then uses his sphincter muscles to move said asshole like a mouth, opening and closing it at a manic pace. The degree to which this man can manipulate his balloon knot is quite impressive. It’s as fascinating as it is horrifying, and it’s designed to upset stuffy, taboo-beholden squares while not drawing any of its humor from any one person or group’s expense. There’s no targeted demographic, nor is there even really a butt to the joke (pun probably intended). Nope, this is just a man giving a demonstration of a particularly uncouth talent, and doing so on camera. On a surface level, it’s hilarious — this guy’s asshole looks like it is singing a famously goofy, high energy song.
Goat, shut the F up already.
You are 16 times more likely to die without the shots.
Go to hell with your misinformation and get some air. You’ve been watching a little too much Newsmax and Fox.
Believe what you want. Stop spreading lies.
And it’s cloth masks.
But it’s politics you are interest in. Not saving lives. So you deceive and leave the truth out. Like all of your demented political heroes who have killed countless victims. Meatloaf is just the last in chain of morons who believes the lies you and your leaders make daily.
I’m going to wear the stock market bubble crash of 2022 like a badge of honor. Life changing opportunities at the bottom. Survive.
I just don’t see house prices just quieting down and all is well. There will come a recession at some point, and that will be telling. Seems like now is just some people convincing themselves that 500 and 600k for a modest house with a 15k yearly tax bill makes sense.
The fauci narrative is in free fall. When the enormity of what he’s perpetrated is eventually acknowledge he will go down in historical infamy. It would make Mengele blush.
If you believe what he’s telling you, then good for you and get your shots but you have no standing to lash out at others.
Yeah well they pretended aka lied snot cloth masks for the past two years. Duped a lot of people and gave them a false sense of security. What they’ve done is catastrophic.
If you were stupid enough to believe a made in china MAGA cloth mask protects you, well, that’s on you. Anybody with two brain cells selected a tool fit for purpose.
Also, is there going to be face ripping rally into the close? Stay tuned to find out.
He’s still pretending he didn’t get wrecked last year on his calls. He even celebrated getting his ARKG DCA down to $79 last month.
Well GOAT, blame the Orange assh$ole for appointing him to Corona Task Force and shut up already.
They had to tell people to wear face diapers because they didn’t know what else to say. Fauci said face restraints weren’t necessary then said you must wear them and now, once again, they don’t really help. And ya gotta love seeing muppets driving in their car while wearing them. By the way, where’s my O’Biden test kits?
BRT,
I told you what I lost. I didn’t sell the position, so didn’t lose anything as I can wait 10 years for it to come back. You know how much money I am saving in the 401k right now by pulling out? Lets talk about that. I can lose 100% on ark, and this move on the 401k makes it almost meaningless.
Jan 28-30, blizzard potential.
Get your egg, milk and bread now. With supply chain issues, I wouldn’t wait past Wednesday when it hits the news stream.
On the masks. It was known two years ago that cloth masks were sh1t. They were somewhat effective against the early strains and allowed hospitals and frontliners to get the surgical masks that they needed. In April of 2020, it was known that only surgical maths were very effective and it was well known that only KN 94s and 95s were effective against Omicron.
But go out there and take one for the team like Meatloaf and so many others continue to do each day. More power to you. One less Populist voter for the next election.
Nice call on the boing….
Libturd says:
January 24, 2022 at 11:50 am
Remember that chart I posted the other day? If Nasdaq breaks support at 13K, next support level is 11K.
It was known two years ago that cloth masks were sh1t.
Then why are we wearing them?
Thanks. I’ve been ON lately.
I would say watch closely that 13K line on the Nasdaq. If it closes two days below that line, then put your head between your knees. If we settle here (which I doubt we will), I will start buying back more of long positions.
Nothing like routing for a route. That playing the don’t comparison is very apropo.
I’ll take the generous view and ask them why are people wearing cloth and surgical masks? They’ve been conditioned of course. It makes no sense otherwise.
As for meatloaf. That’s between him and his doctor not him and fauci and Biden. You don’t know the story. Dude has been cheating death for 20 years. The vaccine thing is now a virtue test for the left. It’s bizarre and cultish.
Fast,
I never donned a single one. From day one, I used only tied in the back 3-ply surgical masks. You can’t breathe through those cloth masks anyway. Now when I go anyplace where I’ll be exposed to people for more than a minute or so, I wear KN94s. But in another weak, the numbers will be low and I’ll go back to my surgical masks.
Managed risk is the name of the game.
And listen, I’ll be the first to admit that the government (both parties) has done a horrible job communicating with the people. Trump was all bullsh1t promises. Biden believes we are all too stupid to understand a science lesson. So he dumbs down the message to the lowest common denominator, leaving out important data that many of us would like to know.
Now how is the populous supposed to trust any of this? They really can’t. So, I don’t blame people for being upset. But spreading lies intentionally to score political points is simply nefarious.
Just hang on: https://youtu.be/ar4dJnpagRo
Goat,
And yet, I have two kids in school, one who plays hockey and refs, and three adults living in my home who have all stayed free of Covid by wearing masks and getting their shots. Yet, scientists say 35-45% of the population will get Omicron.
Strange who your lies don’t apply to MY case.
Did you put your money where your mouth was and get the shot while telling everyone else they shouldn’t? AbsoEFFINlutely.
I wore one because Dumpy said he advised for cloth masks in April 2020 and even wore them himself. I got my useless vaccine shots because Dumpy did. He believes in it and said so at several rallies. I am a muppet.
Why are we still wearing them in 2022? That is the question. Probably because school admins will f* you if you don’t comply and don’t need my kid at home for a week (again).
I don’t mind masks if at crowded store or on public transit. Pre-Covid, all asian wore them all time in city. Now I see why. My kds pre-school said they 2021 was healthiest year ever due to masks. No one coughing or sneezing on you helps alot.
Here comes the face ripper
My kds pre-school said they 2021 was healthiest year ever due to masks.
Correlation does not equal causation. They all wore masks this year and transmitted all kinds of garbage.. Osterholm brought this up months ago. The logic that masks stopped everything is false.
1. It didn’t stop covid.
2. Kids are never diligent about wearing masks properly and they reuse them for months.
3. All those things are back even with masks in school.
The reason they disappeared, no one actually knows. Could be any number of things. But he noted, they saw respiratory viruses all mysteriously disappear during Swine Flu as well. They still have no idea why.
Cloth masks are more effective at preventing the spread of COVID than going unmasked.
What’s the problem here?
It’s no argument that N95 masks are better than cloth masks, nobody ever disputed that. That’s not the point. Also, well fitting masks are more effective than ill fitting masks, n95 included.
I believe in natural immunity. The CDC now says it’s 25x more effective then fauci shots. Yet he still recommended requiring +100M covid recovered people get the shots. That’s not a dr. That’s a monster. He has no scruples.
Libturd
I think you have to apply through the college or community college the student is enrolled in. My high schooler got it through dual credit with local community college.
Ok.
Now that’s a bouncy meatball.
And now for the truth.
It is not proven that natural immunity is better at preventing Omicron than the jab. There is research that says the shot is better out of Germany. Than there is a recent report (based only on Pfizer) that says natural immunity is better.
Now if I was a betting man, I would take the shot in case the second (non-peer reviewed) study was incorrect since there are so many variables at play and because the vaccine is safe.
Of course, everyone here but the populist morons who live for Trump have common sense and get this. The only interest of Goat and others (or maybe they are all Goat) is to lie if it makes the populists look less wrong.
Holy fcuk balls…..
BRT says:
January 24, 2022 at 1:53 pm
Here comes the face ripper
Prediction 2022
Wokeness is a revolution that never ends. Though it’s all imaginary.
theupheaval.substack.com/p/no-the-revolution-isnt-over
9. Personnel is policy. Let’s imagine, for example, that some lawmakers officially ban the teaching of Critical Race Theory in their state’s schools or universities. Will this be the end of the matter? Will all the woke teachers and administrators who consider “consciousness raising” through “critical pedagogy” – or in general what Marxists call “praxis,” the constant need for the transformation of theory into practice – to be practically a religious commandment just stop doing so? No of course not. As one consultant/cleric recently advised teachers, “Don’t say critical race theory, just teach its precepts… You’re going to see how classroom teachers apply some of these pedagogical models in ways where they don’t even mention the words critical race theory but are doing anti-racist work.” Yes, the work of spreading the new good news shall not be stopped! After all, who is going to stop them? Will they be fired by the woke human resources department, or the woke principal? Abandoned by the woke teachers’ union? Reported to the state by their un-woke peers, all of whom have already been systematically purged from the collective for their heresy? If concerned parents do manage to get them fired, who will hire their replacements? Why… the woke HR department! The people who actually set the effective policy of any institution are inevitably the personnel located in the power centers closest to implementation.
So now it shifts to omicron. If omicron is what you’re worried about then you do have a phobia. The mortality rate us well below the flu. If omicron becomes dominant then covid is over and the shots are moot.
The best studies have shown that in any given environment, cloth masks might give you a 15% reduction in acquiring the virus. But much like playing at the casino, house edge is many games can be as low as 2% and they still clean you out over time. When you continually return to that environment day after day, having 1 out of 7 odds each day quickly means you are going to lose by the end of the week, if not, definitely by week 2. So, the chances of your cloth mask preventing you from getting covid during a spike essentially get reduced to zero over a long time period.
Moreover, the entire point of wearing masks was to give us just a tiny little edge prior to us being able to treat it. We are so beyond that, it’s not even funny. We have vaccines and therapeutics. There’s no point in delaying spread anymore. If you can’t be comfortable wearing your own n95 with 3 shots and ignore everyone else, you aren’t long for participating in society.
The idea that any mask prevents you from infecting someone else has always been false with an aerosol, which is what this is. Go outside on these colds days and breath out your N95. Water vapor galore coming out all ends of our mask. So forcing someone else to wear a mask to protect you is false, and this idea needs to die a quick death.
Right now, statistically speaking, someone who is unvaxxed and who has been infected/recovered is less of a risk and more protected than someone with 3 shots who’s masked and never been infected. Yet, we want to treat the first person like they are a threat.
Once you are vaxxed, the best outcome for you is to acquire the virus while your immunity is at an all time high. That doesn’t mean getting sick. People who did this and inhaled delta likely didn’t ever test positive and had more protection from omicron. I had likely the alpha variant. My wife/kids, I suspect was some form of the Beta. We believe my wife’s positive was an asymptomatic secondary infection because she had alpha as well. I was doubled jabbed at that point. We then headed to Florida where I know we were showered in Delta. It’s no surprise to me that my entire family avoided the whole Omicron wave despite the fact that we’ve literally been everywhere unmasked the past 3 month.
$ARKK traded an astonishing $4.5b worth of share today. For context, that’s more than any of these: $EEM, $GLD, $TLT, $F, $DIS. It also did another $2.7b in options volume. Again, this is arguably good sign for ARK longevity, ppl like to trade it, like a sector ETF.
https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1485740949334597641?s=21
BRT,
Really nice call with the ripper. You are in the zone right now. Keep it up!
A lot of people calling bottom…I just don’t see it. Maybe I’m seeing it wrong, but I still think there is more pain to go.
ETFs’ % of total equity volume is rising quickly, highest since April 2020, a number that correlates w/ fear as many bigger investors use them to tweak or adjust portfolio exposures in selloffs. $QQQ is especially elevated. Nice chart/story from @luwangnyc bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1485672592258314244?s=21
My Wife and I both had/ have Covid, got it right before Xmas and then again last week, they don’t know if it was a new case or the symptoms from the first round came back, which apparently happens. Last week was terrible with coughing especially at night. Today has been a lot better for us coughing wise, and don’t have the overwhelming fatigue from right before Xmas.
Anyone who says this is just like a flu is mistaken. This kicks your ass ! It ain’t just a flu.
3b, might be another illness yet you still tested positive due to shedding virus. Feel better soon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-24/sorry-stock-traders-the-fed-won-t-have-your-back
BRT: They tested for flu too, but it was not that. We have/ had most of the Covid symptoms that people have had. Both my wife and I got it again or the relapse last Monday, so I would say it is Covid. Thank you for the well wishes.
Pretty crazy how some people are okay, but others die due to the virus. You never know with covid.
“4 NJ Kids Die Of COVID-19 Since Christmas, State Says
On Friday, New Jersey reported six new cases of inflammatory syndrome in children – which is the most ever reported in NJ in a single day.”
https://patch.com/new-jersey/wayne/s/i2qnt/4-nj-kids-die-of-covid19-since-christmas-state-says?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert
3B
My Wife and I both had/ have Covid.
Best of luck 3B, Covid wacks some people harder than others….Be safe! It sounds like you two have been through the mill.
3b, very odd considering you both relapsed. Did you guys take anything for it?
LOL, what a day. Around lunchtime the market hit levels that priced in six+ Fed hikes, a wholesale selloff of bonds from the Fed balance sheet, tanks rolling into Ukraine, Chinese jets over Taiwan, and AOC as President.
More of this please. So active I actually bumped up against margin today, ha.
Re: BTC (and OBJ)….going to be a shitshow soon…most of these ‘investors’ don’t understand taxes, saw the same thing real time in 2017…anyone who transacted toward the end of the year will likely have a significant tax bill and odds are they didn’t sell at the time to prepay or set funds aside…with the tax bill now due and the asset value cut in half….ouch.
CNBC had some wag on that walked through OBJ’s pay which he apparently took in BTC….$750k, taxable, but the asset is now worth a fraction of that. Math works out to OBJ playing the entire season for about $75k once he sells now (most) of the BTC at current prices to satisfy the amount of taxes due on the higher value received. Ooops. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy lol.
Jim: Thank you for your well wishes. Covid certainly does hit some harder than others. I know a young couple who have had it/ relapsed 3 times. The woman’s hair was coming out in large clumps, and this couple is early 30s and healthy other wise no weight issues or underlying issues.
3b, speedy and full recovery to you and your family
BRT: Yes it is. It’s more likely we relapsed I would guess then a new case. Doctor prescribed cough medicine in pill form. As well as Vitamins C and D. Feeling better today, hopefully that lasts. We went to an out of state wedding which was family, and probably not a good idea as we got it/ relapsed 2 days after we got back. Probably a little run down as well. Also taking Zinc, quertin, and Elderberry; our Daughters regimen.
Left: Thank you.
Biden caught on hot mic calling a Fox reporter a stupid son of a bitch. Ironic indeed.
NJ back to into 3rd place in the covid death race, well done.
Covid is not like the flu because it is just weird. It is very weird how some people get very sick and others not at all. My wife described her three day bout with covid as slightly less severe than the vaccine but with the same symptoms. Other people we know were triple vaxed, wife was fine almost no symptoms but the husband was quite sick.
Lib you need to stop with the “it’s worked for us” line, I’ve known many extremely careful triple vaxed people who have gotten really sick, you have been fortunate. The vaccine worked really well early on those of us who had it were out and it was exceedingly rare to hear of a vaxed individual catching covid but once delta came on the scene it seems all the vaxed people have gotten it and omicron seems even worse. Cloth masks statistically speaking do nothing, any reduction of particles is small enough it doesn’t meaningfully reduce transmission. Surgical masks are a bit better and a properly worn N95 mask will significantly reduce transmission. Unfortunately most do not wear them properly and worse they seem to think that they can remove the mask to eat and drink and there is still benefit, as soon as you expose yourself the chance of infection goes way up. The idea that masking in-between sips of beer and food at sporting events will somehow prevent the spread is just laughable.
For the record there is not a chance in the universe that “the jab” is better than natural immunity. Full stop the science does not support the idea that the vax would be better than the virus and one key reason is that the vaccine is only based on the spike protein and one from 2+ years ago where most recovered people have been exposed to a virus genetically closer to the current strain.
my best friends BIL is in his 20s, 3 timer, hospitalized all 3 times. Either he has no immune system or some sort of genetic susceptibility, just like that family of 5 that all died in Jackson early on.
From the ap
As nurses and doctors struggle with a record-breaking wave of omicron cases, evolutionary biologists are engaged in a struggle of their own: figuring out how this world-dominating variant came to be.
When the omicron variant took off in southern Africa in November, scientists were taken aback by its genetic makeup. Whereas earlier variants had differed from the original Wuhan version of the coronavirus by a dozen or two mutations, omicron had 53 — a shockingly large jump in viral evolution.
In a study posted online last week, an international team of scientists further deepened the mystery. They found that 13 of those mutations were rarely, if ever, found in other coronaviruses, suggesting they should have been harmful to omicron. Instead, when acting in concert, these mutations appear to be key to some of omicron’s most essential functions.
Now the researchers are trying to figure out how omicron defied the normal rules of evolution and used these mutations to become such a successful vector of disease.
“There’s a mystery here that someone has to figure out,” said Darren Martin, a virus expert at the University of Cape Town who worked on the new study.
Screams more gain of function research to me. I’ve read 2 dozen papers in Nature alone where they are purposely mutating the virus to test antibody effectiveness against it.
BRT the most convincing hypothesis I’ve heard is there is a genetic predisposition and it is the result of a genetic defect involving IL signaling. Basically covid elicits a very dangerous immune response and the resulting inflammation is the killer/cause of severe illness. 3x hospitalized in his 20’s is very scary. It definitely seems like there is a predisposition to severe disease and very likely a genetic link, at this point I’m disappointed we have not identified it yet.
Phoenix
Do you like videos of police chasing motorcycles? This one is from the DFW area. Does not end well. Cop is now a former cop.
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/lake-worth-texas-police-officer-ran-over-unarmed-man-at-45-mph-bodycam-video-fracturing-his-spine-lawsuit-alleges/287-8de8cc92-36ca-471f-b5d3-40001a956871
Most young people that react negatively to the disease are having an overactive immune response via cytokine storm. Steroids have been very successful in avoiding this. In fact, it would likely be little harm to just give everyone under 40 a dose of steroids as an insurance policy…of course we don’t. In fact, I know someone that literally had to leave a hospital and go to another doctor to get steroids. He wrote “asthma” on the presciption to avoid COVID conflict issues (wtf is that sh1t?). Know of 2 other people who went to Jersey Shore only to leave to go elsewhere after being denied treatment. I guess Murphy is trying to get his #1 death toll back.
This symptom is what primarily killed most people in the 1918 pandemic. Also, one of the primary reasons they believe that smokers were rarely in the ER in the first wave was because nicotine had the same deterrent effect.
Iffn you get your smoke on, you’ll be safe mon.
Irie
I hope you feel better soon.
Is it possible that the more severe case was Delta and the other Omicron?
3b says:
January 24, 2022 at 5:43 pm
My Wife and I both had/ have Covid, got it right before Xmas and then again last week, they don’t know if it was a new case or the symptoms from the first round came back, which apparently happens. Last week was terrible with coughing especially at night. Today has been a lot better for us coughing wise, and don’t have the overwhelming fatigue from right before Xmas.
Anyone who says this is just like a flu is mistaken. This kicks your ass ! It ain’t just a flu.
Stu & left:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5rifXMCI-fI