God Speed Alex!
————–
Thanks for your support!
We now have air raid sirens, but we are already used to this sound 🙂
Bucha, Kyiv Oblast last night
This is a “wild horde” … like Batu Khan in 1200 in Ukrainian history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batu_Khan
We won’t give up.
We are very evil… But our people have always been not only brave but also pragmatic. A little something interesting for you.
https://fb.watch/btBEP5Zi_z/
Watch this video. This is one of the captured “infantry fighting vehicles” on a tracked chassis.
There is rust inside the cab, the driver’s seat was made by someone on their own, from pieces of old wooden boards. Some kind of rag is put on the seat 🙂
This is the same “invincible Russian army” with which Putin scares the whole world … 🙂 rusty old iron (197X-198X years of release).
The main problem is that there are a lot of them. This is a “mad horde” that goes to the slaughter in Ukraine. Thank you for the Javelins.
We must grind this whole horde into mincemeat. We’ll get the job done.
so farmers burn Russian tanks:
https://fb.watch/btCjSKcbwv/
And some laughter
https://fb.watch/btCDgGPHKz/
in this video, farmers have captured an anti-aircraft missile launcher and are taking it to their hangar to hide it 
This unit is made of aluminum, which is very expensive. Farmers disassemble Russian equipment for metal in order to earn money later on scrap metal.
https://fb.watch/btCMexT9qV/
This is a video of the “invincible air defense complex Pantsir”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system
irony of fate – it is destroyed by a missile from Bayraktar (an unmanned aircraft manufactured in Turkey).
Now I am in Kyiv. Outside the window I hear explosions.
Kyiv is now an unassailable fortress.
Every street, every house will be a grave for the Russian invaders. We will win!
Our victory will be 100%! You have no idea how we feel here! Everyone is ready to tear the occupiers with their teeth.
Last night a lot of weapons came up to us, from Poland and Estonia. Now we have a lot of javelins and stuff. We won’t give up!
Pray for us if you believe in God.
Using destroyed Russian armor to create roadblocks is brilliant, think of the psychological impact…
From Kyiv this morning:
Ukraine estimates Russian military losses so far to include:
5,840 troops (up from 5,710)
30 planes (up from 29)
31 helicopters (up from 29)
198 tanks (up from 191)
862 armoured fighting vehicles (up from 846)
85 cannons (up from 77)
40 MLRS (up from 24)
355 vehicles (up from 305)
60 tankers
9 anti-aircraft systems (up from 7)
3 drones
2 boats
The Kyiv Independent@KyivIndependent ·
Putin wants to reinstate Yanukovych as president of Ukraine.
Viktor Yanukovych is allegedly in Minsk, and the Kremlin is preparing an operation to replace Zelensky with the ex-president ousted by the EuroMaidan Revolution in 2014, according to Ukrainska Pravda’s sources
The guy who reportedly built a $75 million dollar mansion on the outskirts of Kyiv, reported to be the largest timber framed structure in the world?
Sounds like he fits right in with Russian leadership, guess he will want his house back too.
https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/world/2019/10/10/former-ukrainian-presidents-estate-now-museum-corruption/3930071002/
Fiona Hill is a Must Read.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
If people look back to the history of World War II, there were an awful lot of people around Europe who became Nazi German sympathizers before the invasion of Poland. In the United Kingdom, there was a whole host of British politicians who admired Hitler’s strength and his power, for doing what Great Powers do, before the horrors of the Blitz and the Holocaust finally penetrated.
Reynolds: And you see this now.
Hill: You totally see it. Unfortunately, we have politicians and public figures in the United States and around Europe who have embraced the idea that Russia was wronged by NATO and that Putin is a strong, powerful man and has the right to do what he’s doing: Because Ukraine is somehow not worthy of independence, because it’s either Russia’s historical lands or Ukrainians are Russians, or the Ukrainian leaders are — this is what Putin says — “drug addled, fascist Nazis” or whatever labels he wants to apply here.
Some better photos and a really crazy story:
https://www.exutopia.com/occupy-mezhyhirya-ukraine/
Perhaps Zelensky should burn it down as a welcome gift to Yanukovych
Fund the police? Manufacturing here? Buy U.S. goods?
I’m glad to see Brandon adopting some of Trump’s policies.
Perhaps Zelensky should burn it down as a welcome gift to Yanukovych.
Seasoned wood, it’ll burn nicely.
Last night, POTUS entered the House chamber, that was completely packed with our representatives, senators etc. POTUS walked right in, glad-handing and shaking hands with those nearby. A standard entrance for a SOTU.
This morning, my children will put on masks and sit socially distanced while they eat their lunch outside in sub 40 degree air.
If there was any doubt, there should be none. The masking phase of Covid is over.
You shall not pass Ukraine edition..
https://9gag.com/gag/aZrZOq9
CW,
Yes. At this point, with the Covid numbers lower than that of the regular flu, masks are not necessary. Though when the numbers are high, and when people wear REAL masks properly, they are effective. At this point, lots of virtue signaling going on.
Finally, stop the f’ing childish division and work together.
“’We Are United.’ Joe Biden Avoided Partisan Attacks in His State of the Union Address”
https://apple.news/AZT7o-D7LSxyA_02YC-JBlg
Aside from the Trump administration delivering a vaccine, the symbolic messaging by the left has been just that… symbols and words instead of tangible achievement.
They are slowly realizing they are going back to work.
“Anyone else find it puzzling that big companies had record profits in 2021 while working from home and are now forcing employees back to the office “to be more productive?”
Maybe it’s about control and not productivity.”
https://twitter.com/danpriceseattle/status/1498761561023950858?s=21
Crude at $112 per barrel.
Bash, Break, Better!
Anyone know what a pound of Ukrainian people costs these days? I thought this was one of marble-mouth Biden’s most memorable lines…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4YFARkxLH8
What SPF level works best for radiation burns? SPF 10,000? 25,000?
I guess since both sides are now playing the nazi card they must both be hiding something. It’s an obvious tell that there’s some kind of deception taking place. Anyone who questions the prevailing narrative is surely a nazi sympathizer.
I would like an accounting of Biden activity in Ukraine. I would like Fiona Hill to be investigated as well. The Byrisma stuff and Bidens activity was never investigated due to the political cover provided by democrats. Hunters buddy and fellow board member Devon archer has now been indicted for a separate fraud. I guess the “big guy” couldn’t provide him any cover.
We’re far beyond political corruption at this point.
Expect another round of sanction announcements if the talks this afternoon don’t yield any tangible progress.
War or no War OPEC and Russia have been promising to pump more oil for a while now, reality is they are not. They want the $100 price to recover from their losses in 2020 and 2021, even Saudi Arabia was running budget deficits for the last few years.
It’s going to take decades to replace oil and gas with something comparable no matter what the greens and the left say we should be drilling until then.
Drumpf is a distant memory Very-boy. Just a failure on every level.
Not really. They traded Putins favored oligarchs for the west’s. The people got nothing and the standard of living hasn’t improved.
“This is the story of Mezhyhirya – the most offensive display of wasted wealth you are ever likely to see…”
Author ought to drive around some ‘high end’ NJ suburbs lol.
“At this point, lots of virtue signaling going on.”
At this point?!?! LOLOLOLOLOL.
Anyone with good long ideas?
Growth oriented, reasonable price, fortress balance sheet.
Working the magic eight ball on oil….some funds may be way offside, even before move this morning there were some calendar trades (institutions) that were just hitting the bid on everything in some serious size, ie. they were hurting. Have someone pretty experienced in that industry, at least 2mbpd of Russian output is not making its way anywhere…buyers afraid of optics, financing issues by lenders, insurance rates by shippers (fear of seizure)….the remaining 6mbpd may be gradually going offline….lots of variables not even the war but Iran….data dependent but view is there will be one huge pump event (fund blowup, Russia embargo) taking it to maybe 130 and then everyone capitulates.
left, I’ve been riding long oil the past 6 weeks after selling out in early December. Canadian energy, which has been in the dumps forever has been a decent play as a lot of those things become potentially very profitable with oil above $100. Combine that with no Russian imports, countries might actually look to becoming self sufficient to virtue signal or out of necessity. But I always have a planned rapid exit given that I don’t trust demand destruction.
Aside from long gold/silver, oil is my only other long right now.
“Anyone who questions the prevailing narrative is surely a nazi sympathizer.”
The Left have used every ‘-ism’, real and imagined, to denigrate people and tamp down reasonable discussion. Literally run out of ‘-isms’ that even their sycophants would believe.
So they need to move on….which other horrible historical figures can they allude to when trying to deflect from the emptiness of their ideas? I’m guessing not Stalin…who were the Yugoslav puppets? Maybe next time you reasonably question the lunacy of the Left you’ll be compared to them. We should start a pool.
Left. Check out DAR. I might have mentioned it to you 20% ago. Super solid growth company. Green. High stewardship grades and still grossly undervalued. 17% growth rate for a company founded in the 1880s is quite an accomplishment. Another set it and forget it company.
Left,
The Left have to fool their constituents just like the Right does. Both groups of politicians are in it for their own personal enrichment.
Masking is pointless when you have vaccines, therapeutics, natural immunity and antibodies. It has to run through the population to generate robust immunity. To a large degree, it has with Omicron. That’s why it’s fading so early realtive to last year.
There was a doctor on Bloomberg yesterday. They are getting ready to publish data showing the active ingredient in pepsid was very effective at reducing cytokine storm, much like the steroid treatments. He said, a cocktail of antiinflammatory/inhibitory treatments along with antivirals and antibodies, there’s no excuse for anyone not recovery quickly (unless of course, you don’t treat it).
A new strain will be back next season. It will likely be less deadly, and less people will get it.
Can’t touch oil right now. Got in early, and out too early, on the majors but not doing anything at these levels with more than one significant binary event in the background….I’m looking for a defining move and as above think that will present itself with one last long parabolic thrust….
TY on DAR
Biden was in power when it dropped to $40/barrell in Apr 2016 while Trump’s time saw it rise to over $80 by Jun 2018. Hmm.
My farmer came down to drop off another shipment of Jersey corn, 6000lbs.
Warned of higher corn prices through the year, fertilizer prices through the roof for him, especially for Potash, which apparently all comes from Belarus (and Russia). His suppliers have warned of shortages, and of protracted increases in pricing, even if the conflict subsides. Not only that, but impacts to Ukraine wheat production will undoubtedly push up other grain prices as folks use other grain as alternative to wheat.
All this from a local jersey farmer. Who said farming was easy?
Cash is the only way to go right now. There is absolutely no reason to be long right now with all that risk out there, IMHO. When the tide turns, then get in high growth companies because it will be very hard to find yield. You guys all know more than me, but this is what I feel.
Recession is going to come and then companies will revert to cheap foreign remote labor to survive. Going to be a fun time the next few years.
This is all my opinion, so don’t blast me.
It’s also too late in the year for the US to shift to planting more wheat and rye. Missed the window.
8 inches of snow forecast for Eastern Ukraine. Going to be miserable for the Russian troops there.
There it is. These f’ers are insane.
“POWELL: BEFORE RUSSIAN INVASION, FED WAS SET TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IN MARCH WITH EVERY MEETING LIVE”
Forgot to add this. This is the insanity.
“POWELL: WE WILL PROCEED CAREFULLY IN LIGHT OF UKRAINE WAR”
What happened to the roaring 2020s, Nostradumbass? Oh wait, your magic 8 ball shows it will only be a minor downturn and with tech innovation, it will be up, up, up..Oz Powell has complete control over this economy like no Fed in history..
That was before there was a war that is destroying the supply chain. Roaring 20’s was there, but it’s being shot in the leg.
I never expected inflation like this. They lost control.
My calls were when inflation was non existent for a long time.
Want to know my opinion? No? Too bad. You’re getting it anyway!
Inflation is completely out of control due to more factors than I can list. It probably started with the Trump tax plan. Was exacerbated by Jerome’s lack of FED independence shown when Trump brow beat him to cut the interest rates when the economy was flying due to the short-term extra money that Trump’s tax plan provided the economy. Powell should have been moving rates in the other direction. Then of course, Covid happened. Everyone expected the world to stop, but it didn’t thanks mainly due to adaptation through technology. But the government showered everyone under the top 1% with gifts of free money. Those not working got paid. Those working got paid. Pretty much anything with a pulse benefitted from Covid (except those who croaked, but that’s a matter of perspective). But don’t pity the rich. If you were in that top 1%, you got paid by the stock market. And what ended up happening, was that people were saving and paying down debts and spending all of this supposed free newfound cash. The economy, flush with all of this extra unnecessary currency and increases in spending overheated. Since people have more, people charged more. And we were all willing to pay it because of that list of government giveaways. Well, we are all about to pay for it dearly.
The free money has stopped. Oil, which controls nearly all pricing as it’s the world’s most valuable basic material, is shooting skyward. This will cause another huge increase in pricing (as Grim alluded to) on top of our already out of control pricing. The only reason we are not in recession yet is due to ALL of that extra money floating around. It won’t take long before it’s used up and that personal spending (discretionary mainly) is going to grind to a halt. So we’ll refinance? Not when it costs you 4 to 8% more than you are paying in interest now. We’ll put things on credit cards. Nope. Not when it costs you 4 to 8% more than you are paying in interest now. Well maybe the FED can help us? Nope, they moved interest rates in the wrong direction so their chamber is empty of silver bullets. How about more government stimulus? Gonna be tough to justify when our treasury bonds are already paying 10%.
My goal is not to scare you. It’s meant to make you act more carefully. That’s all. Inflation is an economy killer. Don’t waste all of your extra money on NFTs and Crypto. Though, it might not be such a bad idea as being a big shot in the Metaverse when your real world has collapsed, due primarily to your stupidity, sounds kind of enticing. I wonder if they have cat food NFTs?
“There are only three ways to meet the unpaid bills of a nation. The first is taxation. The second is repudiation. The third is inflation.”
Herbert Hoover
Lib,
How long before the 5 dollar menu becomes a value at fast food chains? I’m disgusted that they f/ed this up and lost control. My job is screwed. How are they going to keep up with inflation with 1% or lower contracts? For the love of god, do not let your children become teachers. They are about to be lined up and shot.
Have no fear Pumps. Interest rates are going to go up. And the longer Powell delays, the greater the risk this inflation gets out of control. Wait and see is ALWAYS more dangerous than being proactive. I’ll wait.
My advice to you Pumps? Find a lucrative Summer job.
Each meeting live was out there for a while…
my ears are picking up two things…
Continued steadfastness on not managing the balance sheet down until after more than at least one rate hike implemented…keeps me believing that there is serious potential of the yield curve flattening quickly, ie. fewer cuts than anticipated. I’ve had this opinion for a while, and it just keeps getting reinforced.
Sanctions…running away from them….at any juncture that term is raised he goes into hard disclaimer mode of ‘we have nothing to do with those, its the elected officials’. Seems he is getting very clearly on the record he/the Fed has zero involvement with them and the only reason I can come up with is because he thinks we are in for a total shitshow on the back of them.
Lib: Well said as always.
Pumps: We were telling you inflation was coming, we told you Jerome and his transitory line was nonsense, but you persisted with your roaring 2020s. You thought the party would go on forever, and in fairness you were not the only one. But, the party is over, and its time for the clean up.
“There are only three ways to meet the unpaid bills of a nation. The first is taxation. The second is repudiation. The third is inflation.”
I would add a fourth, fiscal restraint…..just as a stock can trade flat for months if not years as an inflated multiple is reduced by the earnings growing into the flat price governments (at all levels) don’t need to withdraw funds by taxation, just stop the drunken spending. Freeze every budget. Or 1-2% increase at most. How they do it is up to each entity but in total the top line needs to stay flat while the economy grows into that (already grossly inflated) level of government spend.
Yes BidenIsTheGOAT, the only thing consistent in Ukrainian politics is that somehow all parliamentarians are worth millions sometimes billions while the average person makes less than $6000 per year. Make no mistake all of these people are VERY corrupt and it is no wonder why pre-invasion Zelenkyy’s approval rating was like 22%.
The hubris of the west and the Ukrainians themselves will be there undoing. The west is not engaging with Russia in this conflict we won’t even allow countries like Poland to help as much as they can for fear of triggering WWIII. Either the Ukrainians capitulate and negotiate a peace deal or this will be a protracted battle mainly consisting of Russian airstrikes because their infantry looks pretty sad and there is no semblance of Ukrainian air defense as they relied on ground radar. The longer this goes on we will see more civilian deaths and destruction. I don’t think Putin will lose face he doesn’t care how many 18 year old Russian kids he has to kill. I’m sorry I feel for the Ukrainians but Ukraine is not worth WWIII and I think for Putin this is a dose of reality as from appearances he would be hard pressed to defeat a country like Poland on it’s own let alone with US forces intervening because of article 5 so he won’t dare try. So far John Mearsheimer’s predictions from 2013 are coming to pass, he indicated we were leading them down the primrose path to destruction.
I’m sure because while he is in Ukraine he will attack on Moldova to grab the Transnistria region which is majority Russian and Ukrainian. I suspect the plan is to shrink eastern Ukraine, making it Russian territory and consolidating the black sea coast as part of Russia including Transnistria, the historical Ukrainian heartland will then be a land locked proxy state run by Yanukovich.
I am not going to enter the room that 3b is entering of getting into a he said/she said with Punkin but for the record…
You spent months wishing for and defending inflation. I distinctly remember trying to convince you of what every first semester economics student knows which is inflation is among the most insidious destroyers of wealth and quality of life, especially for those at the lower end of the economic ladder or on fixed incomes.
Guess you woke up that you are effectively on a fixed income personally and now everything has changed? JFC…
Well, I guess get out of cash and jump back into high growth with the fed not raising rates. Look at the market roar. Lmfao.
Left,
2% inflation is fine. I was never for runaway inflation. Let’s be real.
…inflation is among the most insidious destroyers of wealth and quality of life…
I’m trying to figure out where to put some extra cash. I Bonds? Shiny? All advice welcome… all disclaimers applied.
I’m hearing you may want to fill up the cars as we may be in for a bit of a shortage. Not sure why. Perhaps the experts on board can chime in.
As for potash, I always thought the largest producer Nutrian NTR, gets their potash from Canada and Australia. Anyway I sold them off few years back as they were not doing anything year after year and china would beat them down on pricing contracts
I wouldn’t expect the Russians to send the ground forces into Kiev immediately, once they control the perimeter and have encircled the city they will lay siege using long range artillery, missiles, and air cover. They will cut the power, the water, any way to re-supply food. These people will be sitting and waiting for the invaders starving, cold and in the dark while being shelled and bombed. As far as the Russians are concerned, they made the announcement for civilians to leave, anyone who stayed is now a military target, the gloves are coming off. Putin is crazy but he and his army probably have a good idea how to wage a “war of terror” on Ukraine, heck I’m sure they have studied our tactics in places like Iraq and Afganistan.
And I was j/k about jumping back in. This sh!t is a ticking time bomb. Run.
How does one achieve this? They already spend more then they take in. How do you stop this without crashing the economy into nothing?
“I would add a fourth, fiscal restraint…..just as a stock can trade flat for months if not years as an inflated multiple is reduced by the earnings growing into the flat price governments (at all levels) don’t need to withdraw funds by taxation, just stop the drunken spending. Freeze every budget. Or 1-2% increase at most. How they do it is up to each entity but in total the top line needs to stay flat while the economy grows into that (already grossly inflated) level of government spend.”
Pumps,
inflation isn’t something that you can turn the off switch on. It takes time to work it’s way through the system, and we are going to pay for the years of MMT policy that you were cheering on as recent as 6 months ago
There was no problem with MMT for over two decades. The problem this time, they totally f/ed up the supply chains. WFH played a major part in f/ing up the supply lines.
I mean, what do we expect? We shut down the economy. We are now seeing the price for doing so. Demand overwhelmed supply, and they lost control. Should have been raising rates hard last year.
Left: I said what I said to Pumps and will leave it that. Simply nothing more to say.
Instead, they let everyone spend and drive up pricing.
Powell before Congress now – Congressman asks Powell about food supply due to fact that Russia/Ukraine produce 2/3 Potash in world, 1/4 world’s wheat.
Powell: The Fed does not have the tools to address this.
Meanwhile: CBOT July Futures – Wheat is limit up today, to over $10/bu, Corn over $7/bu, Soybeans almost $16.50/bu
Houston, we have a problem…
And screw the rate hikes….they should have reduced their balance sheet last year, not keep increasing it. Like wtf.
left,
I will add a fifth, coming to the rich near you:
“Juli Boeheim, wife of Syracuse coach, robbed at gunpoint outside mall”
Everyone loved the free money. I was screaming that you’d pay for it three times over in inflation.
Auto prices went up 15% year over year. They are going to go up another 15% or more this year. That 30K SUV will cost you 40K two years after the stimulus. Hope it was worth it. How much do you spend each month on groceries? Tolls? Transit? Eating out? Good luck.
Vigilante Capitalism, new term forthcoming..
BS Blumpy…just because you sold off 401k. So transparent on new found negativity. Some of us have intellectual integrity even if profiting from recent situation. Those with ounce of sympathy for lower middle, poor and elderly are about to get crushed into dirt.
Really Messed up, besides the 18 year olds told they were only doing training here is a bunch of school teachers and school workers put into Russian uniforms and sent into the trenches.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4xnn9/a_small_russian_unit_that_fully_surrendered_to/
Good thing everyone got big raises in last month right? Oh wait, two guys that work under me got zero. One of them had his rent go up $25o/month this year. Capitalism works really, really well. Just a rich bank with biggest profits since 2006.
Bystander,
When have we had inflation like this in my life? Sorry, that I have to switch positions. You think I wanted to take out my 401k and put it in a 2% paying position that is losing to inflation? Wake up. I had no problem supporting the FED from 2008 to 2019. But now they f’ed up. Covid f’ed up everything.
Eddie, wish I could help you right now. Way too volatile a period for any firm view, which should resolve shortly. Resolution will entail a clear movement up or down so by waiting you are conceding you will be leaving some directional gains on the table which for my investing DNA that’s OK…
Personally, for disclosure, I’m 65% cash, 10% other and as I think I’ve mentioned most of the remaining 25% is structured with options to provide a fixed return in an up/flat or market down c. 20%. Beyond a 20 down I’m at risk, and I’ll gladly take the tradeoff of leaving excess returns on the table for fixed returns and 20% downside protection.
I’ve ‘juiced’ the above with some high volatility stuff most notably being short actual volatility (about 6% of portfolio) and you’ll love this one long Russia (about 1%). The vol trade is set to stop loss at 25% down (1.5% portfolio hit) and exit at 50% up; Russia is through the RSX is alongside my de minimus crypto exposure which I’m looking at a triple or a not insubstantial chance of it going to zero. Last piece of my ‘other’ higher risk bucket is in reserve for some oil trades if/when that presents.
I will always use pieces of the cash to jump in/out of ST situations that pop up, including my long time earnings plays although that season is winding down.
Pumps: Fed screwed up long before Covid , with their 10 plus year party.
Fixed.
“I had no problem supporting the FED from 2008 to *when I sold off my 401k a few weeks back*”
I seem to recall, the whole “wage inflation” argument, that you were consistently told, wages would lag gains in every category. You clung to the idea of price collapses in lumber/oil and all kinds of things all last year. Cathie Wood was predicted $12 oil at the same time. Maybe she forgot a zero.
Bystander,
Why are you acting like a child? Do you suggest I jump back in my 401k? I did what I had to do. Not because I personally decided to change positions, but because I realized the climate has changed and I needed to make a move. I have close to a half million in there. This isn’t child’s play. I made a ton the past 10 years and I’m not trying to give it all back. You know how much stress I am under right now?! You think I enjoy this? Wake up.
Jesus christ…am I not human? Am I going to be right on everything? I was right for 9 years on this blog till covid f/ed up everything. Instead of bashing me, can you just acknowledge that I was smart enough to know when I was wrong, and adjust to it before it’s too late? That’s what I did when I exited the market with the 401k…I acknowledged that I was no longer correct on inflation being transitory and that it wasn’t going to take the economy down. I owned it, and then acted on it. What more do you want?
BRT says:
March 2, 2022 at 12:52 pm
I seem to recall, the whole “wage inflation” argument, that you were consistently told, wages would lag gains in every category. You clung to the idea of price collapses in lumber/oil and all kinds of things all last year. Cathie Wood was predicted $12 oil at the same time. Maybe she forgot a zero.
Make no doubts about long-term inflation….it’s deflation. Just look at this war. It’s killing off young dudes that are never going to have a family. Population growth is f/ed. This inflation is going to make it even harder for families to have kids. 10 years from now, no way in hell will deflation not be the real threat. Going to be stupid hard to make money off investments in that kind of environment.
You’ll never get it Blumpy. Everything over 9 years that you pumped up and bragged about, including your precious RE/demographics non-sense, has led to this precipice. We all saw debt at astronomical debt levels, bullsh&t wages gains, manipulated Fed stock markets, speculative RE purchases by younger gen and political hubris across both aisles to push consumer spending. Here we are..tinder and flame.
Bystander: Well said.
“You know how much stress I am under right now?! ”
For you Blumpy..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=galXYbepW_s
In my world, if you are going to impress someone, best do it in front of those dangling eight figures…….
leftwing says:
March 2, 2022 at 9:36 am
Can’t touch oil right now. Got in early, and out too early, on the majors but not doing anything at these levels with more than one significant binary event in the background….I’m looking for a defining move and as above think that will present itself with one last long parabolic thrust….
If all your tax-deferred money is in qualified plans, then fund backdoor Roth IRA’s.
Once you do that, pick your poison tax exempt…..
Fast Eddie says:
March 2, 2022 at 11:16 am
…inflation is among the most insidious destroyers of wealth and quality of life…
I’m trying to figure out where to put some extra cash. I Bonds? Shiny? All advice welcome… all disclaimers applied.
And Biden, I’m sure, has directed Powell to pull the plug on any significant rate hikes.
Hence the short-term party in the indexes.
It’s like there is a giant cannon. The men just loaded the gunpowder into it, but the FED keeps pushing the other men away who try to load the cannonball so that more gunpowder can be loaded in. Every time they are close to tamping down the powder and putting in the cannonball the FED keeps calling for more gunpowder. At this point, the barrel is so full of powder that the cannonball might not even fit in.
Libturd says:
March 2, 2022 at 10:43 am
“Inflation is completely out of control due to more factors than I can list. It probably started with the Trump tax plan…”
Careful Lib, your TDS is showing…The Fed has been running an inflationary monetary policy for 20 years and a super-inflationary policy for most of the past 13-14. Likewise, reckless gov spending has been the norm for longer than I can remember. Yet inflation was non-existent until Joe took over. Fact is, Joe lit the match when he decided to cede oil pricing power back to OPEC+ (canceling Keystone and halting new drilling leases almost immediately) . Oil was $53/barrel when he took office, mid 60’s within two months and is now skyrocketing beyond $100. And his hyper-reckless handouts have only added fuel to the fire. Make no mistake, this is absolutely Bidenflation.
Nobody can figure out what the hell the Russians are doing.
Are they really this inept? Is all this equipment really so shitty?
Are they sending in these people purely as fodder?
Why are they holding back so much armor? Though, they’ve supposedly committed 70% of the force they had on the border.
Why do they need Belorussian military support?
Why are have they not dominated with air superiority?
Is this a trap to pull in NATO?
Was this ever really intended to be an invasion? Did Putin pull the trigger on this at the last minute, moment of opportunity?
“Everything over 9 years that you pumped up and bragged about, including your precious RE/demographics non-sense, has led to this precipice.”
Thank you.
Careful Small…don’t strain your single brain cell. Please tell us how imaginary phantom pipeline running through Canada and number of states has impacted oil prices today. It was 95% incomplete during Dump’s “great” reign even approved.
Right, there is no problem with demand to supply… i called that perfectly. 9 years out.
“RE/demographics non-sense”
“CHINA ASKED RUSSIA TO DELAY UKRAINE WAR UNTIL AFTER OLYMPICS, U.S. OFFICIALS SAY – NYT”
Pumps: Are you surprised at China?
Nope, not at all. They are and have been a threat to our standard of living.
re: “what the hell the Russians are doing” & “holding back so much armor”
It’s not a tank battle in the fields. We do not see the Ukrainians battling head on, perhaps the first day there was some of that but with Russian air superiority they cannot roll out what armor they have into the open. This is irregular warfare using small groups, ambushes hit and run tactics. Works great with the weapons they have, block the roads then sneak up and fire a cheap RPG into one of those trucks or dilapidated armored personnel carriers and if a spotter sees an actual T-72 tank dispatch the better trained army teams with the tank killing weapons.
This is about to get messier if the news is true, apparently allot of the just donated anti tank NLAWS and Javelins along with the Stingers from Europe have now arrived and thousands were sent. 5,000 anti-tank weapons from Sweden and another 1000 German designed weapons along with others. Fun fact the Javelins although primarily designed to take out tanks can also take out low flying helicopters. They are fire and forget weapons and rarely miss.
To now get into Kyiv the Russians are going to have cross denotated overpasses and bridges over the waterways north and east of the city, and they Ukrainians probably have laid some antitank mines too.
Russia has advanced armor stuff they have tested in Syria like the Uran-9 robot tank, as well as allot of drones they have a fleet Granat 1, Granat 2, Eleron-3, Zala, Orlan-10, Takhion and Zastava or their latest tanks like the T-14. None of that has been seen or destroyed so far. They might be saving it for Poland or Romania where the US troops are stationed. If Ukraine falls the next logical step would be to dig in on the western border or move on the easier target Moldova.
From what we have seen with that knuckle head Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko standing in front of a battle map they have more plans than just Ukraine and Putin has made it known he will be around for another decade to see the reunification of the Russian Empire.
Europe has to lead this, we cannot be world police here. Combined Europe has a massive force, and they should not sitback and let this pass.
Joe O’Biden mentioned the Uranian people last night. Does anyone know where the country of Urania is?
Grim, I can’t make heads or tails of it. Putin is generally regarded as smart and a good strategist, even by his enemies. This invasion makes no sense based on what we are seeing, he can’t hope to hold the territory without tremendous expense and difficulty and the country will be even more trashed than it was before the invasion. A limited operation to capture the break away regions, sure. Destabilizing the country, assassinating the president or some members of parliament, yes all on the table. A full scale invasion is nuts and carries too high a cost to ultimately be worth it because I cannot see a good ending for Russia inevitably it costs both Russia and the West.
SGC,
Trump tweets: ‘Who is our bigger enemy,’ Fed Chairman Powell or Chinese President Xi?”
The people can decide for themselves.
You are clearly so deranged that you are convinced that Trump shits scrumptiously delicious sausages.
BTW speaking sheer madness this leader of Belarus Lukashenko. This interview from last month, guy is a total commie and wants the Soviet Union back and then to be promoted to a General in the Soviet Army..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JNtiO7nhmo
BTW the hackers ( paid by the CIA?) have made some progress in Belarus to slow down the invasion, hacked the train control switching equipment. The trains will now have to stop and have someone manually switch the track.
https://www.railway-technology.com/news/belarus-hackers-attack-train-systems/
Putin probably tipped off Xi to his war during their Olympics meet & greet. China could have possibly persuaded Putin not to do this, but instead negotiated an energy deal. China likes anything that creates chaos in the Western world. They wouldn’t mind having another mad dog on their leash, with N. Korea being #1, Russia can be #2. “Sorry this dog bit you, it’s not mine so I cannot control it”
Best thing that could happen to Russia at this point is an internal revolution against Putin. I have no idea of the odds of that happening. Higher now than a month ago, but probably still low.
I hope Trump’s latest foolishness takes him out of contention in 2024, but he won’t give up himself, and there are a bunch of people still in his cult. He’s got the vocabulary of a fourth grader – to him everything is on the strong-weak axis or the smart-dumb axis. Genius being reserved for himself and Putin.
Are the rockets being saved for “when they see the whites of their eyes”? Are the tanks getting harassed or blown up now or just blocked? We’re so used to videos in war, this one seems a bit blind. I’m surprised Ukraine hasn’t produced videos of Russian tanks and planes being blown up.
Putin must be really going nuts with frustration. Unless this was part of his plan. Distract in the north and take over more territory in the south?
I have officially announced the renaming of the democrat party to the American Oligarch Party. The O’Bidens, Pelosi and the Clintons have swum in the grift pool of the Ukraine laundromat repeatedly. So, the AOP is born!
The good news is, that all of this hacking of Russian systems should relieve the pressure on American Companies for a while. :P
I hope the Russians like Chinese Food.
Interesting point from an aviation expert on Russian sanctions. Supply chain for many things is just in time, they will have less than a month stock on most parts. The most vulnerable are their commercial airlines. Most commercial aircraft operated in Russia are Boeing and Airbus, they won’t be able to service them internationally and cannot get parts in Russia. Once they run out of spare part it’s over for their airlines, could be something simple like a tire or a break pad or something complex like a GE engine part.
Same would be true for vehicles cheap ones like Hyundai, KIA, Volkswagen and Renaults made in Romania are among the most popular in Russia. No car parts no running cars, this will take a little longer but in a year’s time?
Fast Eddie says:
March 2, 2022 at 11:16 am
“I’m trying to figure out where to put some extra cash. I Bonds? Shiny?”
Florida real estate, Ed. No doubt you’ll be buying in high, but the long-term trends in favor of a place like Florida become clearer and clearer each time I’m there. Companies and people are pouring in because it’s the polar opposite of the dead or dying blue states. If not direct investment in the form of a vacation home/condo, look for a REIT (I don’t even think type matters that much — apartment, warehouse, etc) that’s heavily invested in Florida.
Libturd says:
March 2, 2022 at 3:49 pm
I hope the Russians like Chinese Food.
Borscht with a side of Century Egg. Delicious.
“Joe O’Biden mentioned the Uranian people last night. Does anyone know where the country of Urania is?”
West of the Plutonians?
Juice, CHINA….The Russians cab get as many poor quality auto parts as they want from the Chinese. I also imagine the Chinese will be able to get the real parts and they will wind up selling directly to Russian customers. Airplanes are a bit tougher as they do not have the volume it would be easier to catch smuggling and I certainly wouldn’t want to fly on a plane using Chinese after market parts!
Yeah, Florida is going to make California look like a dream with all of the underfunded infrastructure and old people that refuse to pay for it. It’s already a mess. You can’t drive a mile without hitting five red lights on local roads or a traffic jam on their highways. On the bright side, you are free to kill yourself and your children when the next pandemic hits.
There are now so many of these videos where the Russian soldiers are claiming they were called for some kind of military training, despite having zero military experience, told they would be away for 3-5 days to practice, learn drills, participate in exercises. Their work superiors told them it was mandatory, they had to attend.
I can understand the use of this kind of approach as part of propaganda, but the story just doesn’t work in that context at all.
“I certainly wouldn’t want to fly on a plane using Chinese after market parts!”
Heck, they make umbrellas out of used newspapers.
Wow, never let politics drive your investments. Florida is overcrowded and will suffer the same fate as every other state that experienced rapid population increase. This state lives off of old people and their retirement money, realize it.
SmallGovConservative says:
March 2, 2022 at 4:00 pm
Fast Eddie says:
March 2, 2022 at 11:16 am
“I’m trying to figure out where to put some extra cash. I Bonds? Shiny?”
Florida real estate, Ed. No doubt you’ll be buying in high, but the long-term trends in favor of a place like Florida become clearer and clearer each time I’m there. Companies and people are pouring in because it’s the polar opposite of the dead or dying blue states. If not direct investment in the form of a vacation home/condo, look for a REIT (I don’t even think type matters that much — apartment, warehouse, etc) that’s heavily invested in Florida.
Look for a place where everyone has their head in their ass.
Fast Eddie says:
March 2, 2022 at 3:21 pm
Joe O’Biden mentioned the Uranian people last night. Does anyone know where the country of Urania is?
re: “relieve the pressure on American Companies for a while”
Actually the opposite, we are expecting more cyber attacks. They only “currency” that works there now is Rubles and Bitcoin and you can bet the Darkseid hackers and the REvil ransomware group in Russia that were actually arrested in Russia in January as a show of good will are probably out of jail and working again for even more pay now.
We should unplug them but Biden did not sanction telecommunications fully yet, there was a carve out, they cannot buy more connectivity but we are not shutting it off yet.
FYI Russia’s main website for news Pravda is protected in California by a company called Cloudflare right in downtown San Francisco. They have a partnership with Yandex the internet provider in Russia.
Cloudflare is trying to fly under the radar, they haven’t made any public statements, nobody in the Media is asking the right questions either, but the Ukrainians are starting to make noise about Silicon Valley companies still supporting Russia and there are many.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NET/
Great – Lukashenko is a psychopath now too
Florida? The scientists all told us they were wrong about global warming, it’s actually happening faster and the ice melt is moving quicker, the Doomsday Glacier in Antarctica is melting. It’s only a matter of a decade before the sea level rises perhaps as much as 10 ft. Fine move to Florida if you are a retired boomer, you can just sit there and enjoy it for the next decade but after that all bets are off.
“Look for a place where everyone has their head in their ass.”
https://tinyurl.com/urania-photo-sfw
That Lukashenko video is crazy, this guy spilled the beans with his interview and the invasion map is just more proof of all of their planning which has been going on for many years it seems.
4:37 reap what you sow
Juice: I wonder how they got all of that equipped into Ukraine so quickly and undetected.
Phoenix you out there brother, haven’t heard from you today?
Like others, just want to know if you’re OK.
According to Reuters head of Russian space agency says hacking of their satellites would justify war.
re: Look for a place where everyone has their head in their ass.
Right now it’s Europe. When surveyed a few years ago a large percentage greater then 60% in many European nations said they would not even fight for their own country. No so for places like Ukraine and Turkey, they are very nationalistic but many other Europeans when surveyed said they won’t fight for their homeland. And why should they serve and defend they have the Americans to do it for them. It’s been too long now, we have to cut the cord and let them fend for themselves. War is coming, lend lease fine but our young boys should stay home enlist yours now and train them. They are going to need it.
https://twitter.com/wyattclewis/status/1499146593198563330?s=21
Joyriding in a Russian tank…
So surreal.
Juice: Yep. They have us to defend them, and then will complain about Americans being warmongers.
Slowly cracking the whip.
“GOOGLE SAYS WORKERS REQUIRED BACK TO SILICON VALLEY, OTHER OFFICES FROM APRIL -MEMO”
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1499104810376876038?s=21
Pumps: Don’t worry Pumps I won’t take the bait, save to say I know many others that are going the other way. Great way to save on costs in an inflationary environment, dump unnecessary real estate.
3b
Maybe all or a lot of that equipment was already in Ukraine before the invasion and hadn’t been announced yet? Could explain why that Russian column is creeping along and why Russia doesn’t have air superiority yet.
No they started driving it down from Belarus about 4 days ago. This was all the equipment that was staged at the border up there. This is the reason they took the Chernobyl area. They didn’t care about the power plant, it’s a great way to drive straight down from Belarus with no towns, minimal population or otherwise (because of the exclusion zone).
Juice
I wouldn’t be surprised if Europe spends less on defense. They can say look how badly Russia did in Ukraine and think they can spend even less and expect Poland and the US to do most of the fighting for them.
Grim
I was referring to all of the stingers and antitank weapons that have magically reached the Ukraine since the invasion started. They were either already in the Ukraine or got smuggled through Poland and deployed extremely quickly.
re: “This is the reason they took the Chernobyl area”
That (staging)and nobody was going to fire at that place. It’s one giant pile of radioactive dust. Just the Russians driving the military equipment around there disturbed all the dust and set off the radiation sensors.
BTW it’s gamma radiation too all that equipment is now hot.
They have 15 working nuke reactors in Ukraine, six of them have shutdown since the war began. Let’s hope none of them MELTDOWN.
Hold: Good points.
Ohhh..
99% sure they came through Poland, delivered to the border. US military, as well as most of NATO, is at Rzeszow military base, it’s not far to Lviv from there.
If you watch the flight trackers, you’ll see numerous flights from US bases into Rzeszow daily.
There have got to be nearly 10,000 US soldiers in that area right now.
It would be very easy to smuggle whatever the military needed through that border.
Supposedly Russian troops were only supplied with 3 days worth of food.
Google’s best days as an employer are way behind them. Think 2001.
The economy is literally a mess from covid supply issues and has not recovered at all. My stomach turns when I see charts like this. Always ends badly.
“I look at housing data constantly and yet this chart gets me every time”
https://twitter.com/aliwolfecon/status/1499088558526648320?s=21
The big question: how long can this last before a gear falls off and takes the economic engine out. How long??
Pumps it Armageddon or bust.
Tweet from the link PPI for construction materials
“My Starbucks coffee which was $4.78 yesterday cost $5.21 today. Same exact coffee.
9% increase in one day which means if they do that every day for the next 365 days, my coffee will cost $46 trillion.”
One of the responses to her tweet. Guy is prob correct.
“You have covered it before, but the best solution is to build smaller, smarter homes. That’s the long-term solution to solving the issue.”
Juice,
It’s insane out there. Born in 1980…and I think this is the most dangerous time I have lived through…2020- to present.
The Fed made a mess of the economy, period.
Wow. The Germans have seized Alisher Usmanov’s 600 million dollar yacht.
BTW – Putin’s boat was in the same shipyard until about a Fed 9th, it left without finish repairs.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2022/03/02/germans-seize-russian-billionaire-alisher-usmanovs-mega-yacht/?utm_source=ForbesMainTwitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainTwitter&sh=7c1dd88552dd
“Stagflation Warning: Atlanta Fed Cuts Q1 GDP Projection to Zero @schiffgold”
3:23 Putin is a gasbag….remember Chechnya
Complete and total devastation, murder in the highest form and still he couldn’t extinguish the small roving armies of Chechens. Putin had to make peace with them.
6:55 the economy is fine if you are wealthy. Same as it ever was.
6:52 just wait …. something tells me you aint seen nothing yet.
Pumps – re: “most dangerous time”
Nah most of our fleet is docked. If we were really worried our ships would be out in the North Atlantic playing hunt for Red October, and avoid being taken out in Port as we need them for second strikes.
Think of the Nuclear Triad as in first strike capability. Bombers, ground launched and sub launched. High alert for the Ruskies means getting the subs out into the ocean and dust then dust off the props on the old bombers. Ground launched is slower as it is not first strike, cruise missiles not so much bombers need to get close and well a subs can pull right up to NYC Harbor and Chesapeake Bay and well we won’t allow that. Entire oceans are bugged with listening equipment.
Most of our fleet is nowhere near, as the Russian subs are mostly at Kola Peninsula in the arctic circle, maybe one or two bobbing around in the ocean.
You can see where our fleets are live, tech is kool after all.. The USS Harry Truman is docked in Croatia. It’s the closest fleet we have, there would be no airstrikes without them.
https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/navy-ships/US%20Aircraft%20Carriers%20Location%20Tracker
Ex Checyna has a population of about one million, it’s going to be a whole different scenario with Ukraine.
My wife’s uncle spent a decade on a US sub playing the game with Russia. He has some great stories to tell.
Great movie BTW.
https://youtu.be/5WkLoOvm2Yo?t=234
“I would like Fiona Hill to be investigated as well. ”
GOAT, a small question, Why?
The table got bigger since she was there obviously her recommendation and well she worked for Trump. Guilty by association, has to be dirty money somewhere.
https://tinyurl.com/3xsrcuta
JCer,
“Either the Ukrainians capitulate and negotiate a peace deal or this will be a protracted battle”
No, I think this ends sooner, rather than later. Abrabovich has now moved to selling Chelsea Football in a quick sale. That is your Canary in the Coal Mine.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/60597286
Russians don’t want to fight on the ground and cant take and hold Ukraine without it. Vlad needs to pivot very quickly to focus on domestic unrest. That is going to be his biggest problem.
BTW – when is the presidents son going to donate the millions he took back to the Ukrainians? It’s pretty obvious they did not get what they paid for.
Fabius – great time for socialism and the Democrats they should capitalize on this. Funny thing about tracking Russia oligarchs, right now there are no less than 10 private planes owned by Abrabovich flying everywhere from LA to Dubai.. This guy need it all sized and can declare his innocence in a court room. I have seen the Eclipse yacht in NYC. Thatboat even makes a Saudi billionaire jealous.
Left, Want some fun?
“one long Russia (about 1%)” There will be some plays off the back off this, between the asset seizure and any liquidation.
https://tinyurl.com/29ns6su8
I’m looking at this and wondering. If we resolve, the rebound will be worth it. If it goes south, can I take the underlying, when the ADR winds out and see what comes up in Bankruptcy. I love plays like this. The wind-out may take 20 years, but it will be fun having a front seat.
Juice,
That kid that Musk would not pay to stop tracking him, is now tracking the Oligarchs!
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-jet-tracking-teen-russian-oligarch-jets-twitter-account-2022-2 The Oligarchs are holding the assets for themselves and others. How much is Vlad worth? As always follow and watch the money.
So Hill if is Trump Dirty, why are the Trumpers like GOAT calling for her head.
re: “Google’s best days as an employer are way behind them. Think 2001.”
I was at a dinner party in Silicon Valley circa 2003 before the IPO. My wife’s friends were hosting some of worked for Sergey. Met a nice woman there who was on a date with my wife’s friend who was also working at google too. Had a nice chat until it turned to work, her job was to try and sort the porn. No not block it, just watch and sort it, tags etc. I cringed when she told me about her job, as well having knowledge of knowing what “freedom” the internet provides as in unlimited publishing of anything until they come for you. I felt really really sorry for her. She is probably very rich now….lots of folks who got in early are doing well. My last dance with them was two years ago in NYC, some of the same a-holes still working there, the have shifted and pivoted on their cloud products plenty since then and still lose billions I think. A friend just went to work for them too. Hope he won’t get swallowed up too…the churn there is apparently incredible.
Fab – Problem with guilt by association? Let the dunking proceed, if they survive their time under the water then they will be fine.
I want a serious journalist to ask the president when his son is going to return the million the Ukrainians gave to him. They can strip out the words “for protection” however this really need to be asked and answered and not by Psaki either.
Fab – He is a nice kid and should have taken the money. It’s great that his twitter bot is doing it but really tracking Elon vs some immoral folks is a different reality. Elon should take him aside and perhaps explain the difference as well they have been know to get violent when their world comes crumbing down.
The Steph Curry of sanitation
https://twitter.com/whatisny/status/1499035481824272385?s=21
BTW – when is the presidents son going to donate the millions he took back to the Ukrainians? It’s pretty obvious they did not get what they paid for.
That’s what you get for dealing with a crackhead. But yeah, Moscow sent him just as much…so it was a wash.
Tony Stewart’s house is up for sale for you Nascar fans.
https://twitter.com/zillowgonewild/status/1499064677065576449?s=21
That house is over the top. Indiana. Shhhheeeeeeez
9:42 Don’t look for logic here. Ever.
Another yacht seized, this time France.
Big jump in Russian losses today, Ukraine now estimating 9k.
Why is slo joe and Carmella so adamant in stating that they are not sending American forces to the Ukraine? Wouldn’t it have been better to say all options are on the table?
If they could just get to that convoy and lay waste.
It’s just sitting there. It can’t move. It’s not going anywhere.
Received my invite today to order the F150 Lighting, was going to extend it since the pro is no longer available. Then with everything going on and for what I can trade my car in for, was think of placing the order until i configured it online and Performance Ford added a 5K ADM. When I made the reservation they said there would be no ADM, have an email out to them, see what they say before going to Ford.