From Reuters:
First-time U.S. home buyers feeling ‘defeated’ by soaring prices, rising rates
Brianna Lombardozzi finally has her finances to a point where she might be able to buy a house. But she isn’t feeling great about her odds.
Lombardozzi, 37, used her federal stimulus checks and other savings built up during the pandemic to pay down the majority of her credit card debt – a move that helped her credit score rise by almost 100 points.
But competition is intense for homes in her price range of $175,000 to $225,000 in Central, South Carolina, and she has had four bids rejected over the past month. Now with mortgage rates rising, she doesn’t know if she’ll find an affordable property before her lease is up at the end of May.
“Right now, I feel a little defeated,” said Lombardozzi, who works in housing for a local university.
As home prices soar, housing affordability is sinking to the lowest levels since 2008 and first-time buyers – who haven’t benefited from rising home values and are also coping with rising rents – are being squeezed out.
…
At the end of 2021, housing affordability dropped to the lowest levels since November of 2008, with households earning the median income needing to spend nearly 33% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Housing is generally viewed as affordable when households spend no more than 30% of their income on shelter.
Affordability may be strained even further by rising mortgage rates. Some people who had been pre-approved for a mortgage may find they no longer qualify for the same maximum loan amount after mortgage rates rise, said Jennifer Beeston, a senior vice president of mortgage lending for Guaranteed Rate, a mortgage lender.
First-time buyers are already struggling to compete with all-cash offers, including from institutional investors such as private-equity funds, which are taking up a greater share of purchases and are viewed as less risky by sellers, analysts say. Cash purchases accounted for 27% of sales in January, up from 19% a year earlier, according NAR.
First
Your booze is going to get really expensive this year.
Everything is more expensive, and price increases are off the charts. Grain, Freight, Glass, Bottles, Real Estate, Employees, Insurance, etc etc etc.
We’re seeing some eye popping price increases over the past two months.
Give you an idea.
Oak Barrels – 30-40% year over year price increase
Bottles – 20-25% year over year price increase
Grain – 20% year over year price increase
Yeast – 13% year over year price increase
Bottle Closures (corks, seals) – 5% year over year price increase
Is there still a bottle shortage? I ran out of hot sauce bottles this year and couldn’t find any without huge markups.
Grim,
It is getting harder to drink away your problems, better days are coming. Keeping fingers crossed.
Bridgewater “racial” incident breakdown by former cop on youtube . . .
His take. No racism. The woman cop didn’t do her role and failed to engage the kid on the couch (she should have cuffed him). The other officer properly controlled the situation by cuffing the kid that was on the ground.
Sounds more reasonable than the nationwide reaction.
Yep, bottle shortage, cardboard shortage.
Our manufacturer pulled all production from US and sent all their manufacturing to India – who subsequently fucked up the bottles. They did not wait until India was up and running, they just shut down the US plant. They were also the plant that made a lot of the stock bottle styles you see from distributors like Berlin and others.
Disappointing, since our bottles were originally made in the South Jersey plant, before being moved to Ohio, and now to India.
China freight costs and delays had some big companies shift their supply chain to use domestic manufacturers (both bottles and cardboard), this killed the little guys. One big booze producer played the vertical integration game and bought their bottle manufacturer, then subsequently stopped producing bottles for all their competitors. Lots of local corrugated manufacturers were so busy making pizza boxes and takeout containers (at an absurd premium), they didn’t bother doing anything else. At one point we were told there was no white cardboard available in the US – it was all being used for pizza boxes.
Not much of a drinker though the house here has a big wet bar. I prefer to smoke my way to better thoughts…..BTW … ChiFi is a putz. An elitist cunt. that is all.
Nerd stuff – https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/bowerys-vertical-farming-strawberries-go-on-sale-in-new-york-.html
When I announced my daughter had been accepted into a “pricey” private college where she will more than likely matriculate. This mouth breather “Cornell Bro”…are you still renting Chi? Decides to weigh in with a comment directed at me personally and my own rather humble background at a college in the coal field. For all of the BS I see on this site, I have to remind myself that it is populated by a bunch of finance/bank employees. Really. F-ck you all.
Probably a law against refilling a bottle as well.
People consume too much now anyway. Studies say consumption has increased over 21+ % since the pandemic began. Cortisol levels in the body actually increase due to continuous consumption of alcohol over time.
My neighbor has switched to Vaping THC oil instead of drinking. He used to be a roid raging drunk. I call him mellow John now…
This guy Peter owns a restaurant in Asbury Park. He was one of my original inspirations to make and sell hot sauce. He’s got a pretty good piri piri sauce.
https://wwwthemaziman.wordpress.com/
I remember he was buying some sort of Brazilian or Spanish bottled water because those were the bottles he used for the sauce. I was giving out hot sauce in old maple syrup bottles that I’ve saved over the years. I put everyone on work on notice. No new hot sauce deliveries unless they return the bottles.
Ex,
Just for the record, and I know this is a fact.
We are all the same on the inside.
BRT there is a special place in hell reserved for you and the DreamTheater nerds.
8:20 yeah but some of us are still alive.
Ex,
We do put you back together and send you home in one piece. Usually.
I’ve seen the charts of a million people. Heard every story. Things you would never expect.
What doesn’t kill you doesn’t make you stronger, it just doesn’t kill you.
Keep on livin’
14.99 for 8 oz of strawberries. Cool but expensive. Must be the grow lights or the rent on the buiding.
Anyway, yeah….my ass is going to be working for a while if this whole “private” school thing happens. I’m fine with it. Truth is, I like what I do. Anyway, still waiting to hear from SD. mmmmm if that’s a “no” and it’s really competitive because…..sunshine & beaches. you see. Fingers crossed. Not sure the State schools really appreciate the nuances that kids bring to the table. They don’t spend any time getting to know them.
It’s just numbers and lots of them.
Buddy in FL has a kid that wants to study Marine Biology but is “sick of Florida”. She applied out in CA at SD and SB. One of hundreds of thousands of kids. Even though she can get an amazing education in that very field at USF…..not enough prestige? I dunno. It’s getting more selective.
Anyway, Syracuse will let almost anymore in apparently. No thanks. Winter Gulags suuuuuck.
Ex -re : 8:16 am
I agree there is a line that you do not cross and that would be children and moms.
Perhaps toss a few untraceable crypto and arrange a drive by to piss in his gas tank?
Juice,
Never knew that.
Lucky I never told a yo mama joke. Thanks for the head’s up.
Scripps is cool, but so is Woods Hole (if you are into that whole Chicago thing).
What are the oil companies paying marine biologists these days?
“Syracuse will let almost anymore in apparently. No thanks. Winter Gulags suuuuuck.”
Being from Jersey, when the weather gets better you think about the end of school.
If you are in CA, it’s nice all year, so what is the difference.
It’s due to work from home. Dangerous for a lot of people who’s only break from drinking is going to work.
Juice Box says:
March 15, 2022 at 8:17 am
People consume too much now anyway. Studies say consumption has increased over 21+ % since the pandemic began. Cortisol levels in the body actually increase due to continuous consumption of alcohol over time.
My neighbor has switched to Vaping THC oil instead of drinking. He used to be a roid raging drunk. I call him mellow John now…
Surprised we aren’t hearing about this more in the media. 50 ships and 30,000 troops, just a stones throw from Russia.
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-14/norway-cold-response-military-exercise-nato-us-marines-5338744.html
Several thousand U.S. Marines and sailors are among the roughly 30,000 troops from 27 NATO and partner countries taking part in Norway’s largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War.
The biennial Cold Response exercise kicked off Monday and includes land, sea and air drills. This year’s record number of attendees was confirmed months before Russia began its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
“I think this exercise is a good counterpart, a good companion to the ongoing reinforcement of the (alliance’s) eastern flank that has been taking place since Russia’s invasion began,” Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a telephone interview.
…
Overall, about 220 aircraft and more than 50 ships are taking part in the drills, and the total number of participants has more than doubled from the last edition in 2020, making it the largest Norway-led exercise in over three decades, according to the Norwegian military.
Pumps: Yep we sit at home and drink all day, while you sit in the classroom and post all day.
Oil is down to 96 dollars….let’s see how long these gas station owners take to lower it. They were raising it twice a day at some stations on the way up. Now they will drop it weekly if we are lucky.
Don’t take it so personal. It is what it is…if you think people aren’t drinking on the job at home, you are insane. I guess you don’t know people with addictions.
3b says:
March 15, 2022 at 9:03 am
Pumps: Yep we sit at home and drink all day, while you sit in the classroom and post all day.
Russians wiped that Ukrainian training base Jaworów for the foreign legion off the map with cruise missiles. it’s only 20km from Poland border.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/jawor%C3%B3w?src=hash
For you Bimmer fans out there.
https://bit.ly/3KH7nHq
3b,
Why do you resort to attacking me personally. Like wtf?
Same with everyone else. If you want me to take your advice, maybe you should be chill like LIB. If you are attacking me, do you think I’m going to listen? Just saying.
GP
https://youtu.be/BxAVpuakkCQ
Pumps: I attacked you personally, because you insulted me and thousands of others who WFH by stating as fact we are drinking. There are a multitude of reasons why drinking has increased, you state it’s because of WFH. Why? Well we know why.
As for Lib, he is a good man, no need for you to suck up to him now. It’s obvious.
3b,
Go look at the data for alcohol sales. They went up drastically in 2020… so you tell me why they went up when everyone started wfh.
“…is ‘sick of Florida’. She applied out in CA at SD and SB…Even though she can get an amazing education in that very field at USF…..not enough prestige?”
I don’t know…my experience with my kids and friends’ kids is that it takes an exceptional HS student (personally, not academically) to even scratch the surface on substantive decision points regarding college…
Seems to me the top influences are peer opinions of the institution, the amenities and appearance of the physical plant (buildings, dorms), a first blush view of the makeup of the student population, and whatever social factor is pertinent to that specific student….
Plus, there seems to be an overriding factor to ‘go away to college’, and going away usually does not include in-state…..
Pumps
I thought by law gas stations in Jersey could only raise prices once every 24 hours?
9:18 sometimes yeah. I’m ok with the kid being “away” but that being a close enough drive.
Well, if it were Family Feud, I would have guessed the number one answer would have been Covid.
“Go look at the data for alcohol sales. They went up drastically in 2020… so you tell me why they went up when everyone started wfh.”
European prime ministers headed to Kyiv this morning?
That takes some serious balls.
People with addictions never come to work in person under the influence….obviously.
I thought price gouging was illegal too, but still happens. Guess the profit outweighs the fine.
Hold my beer says:
March 15, 2022 at 9:19 am
Pumps
I thought by law gas stations in Jersey could only raise prices once every 24 hours?
Out of my oil shorts….+54%…
Wish the indices were down this morning rather than up on PPI…was looking forward to a ST trade off the Fed tomorrow….
Pretty thin on positions right now…back to the coal mines to look….any favorites out there? Long or short…..
Biggest threat would be flying in, as it’s already 4PM there, they went and left before the press release no?
BRT: Alcohol sales in bars, restaurants, clubs, stadiums, concert halls went down during the pandemic, all places people would drink. Correspondingly, personal sales by consumers for home consumption increases. That makes perfect sense to me, but someone believes that means people WFH increased drinking while working from home so they are drinking rather than working.
Good luck with the rest of the process with your daughter Ex.
It’s a neat time, they’re at the back end of that elongated process from child to (hopefully) functioning adult lol. Enjoy it, and welcome the evolution of your own relationship with your child…
3b,
just looking at all the reported stats, the amount of alcohol consumed definitely increased. We can guess any number of reasons why. What I noticed is that a lot of people I know who weren’t working but getting free cash, they were doing it out of boredom.
But anyone who actually knows someone with an addiction knows they hide it very well in many aspects of their lives and being in person in work doesn’t prevent them from doing it.
First couple of days here w/out masks. So nice
to see peoples’ faces again.
Consumption shifted quite a bit – from drinking away to drinking at home, that’s obvious.
I think also, availability at home did increase consumption a bit. If you bought a bottle of wine to drink at home, you drank it, whereas you might have only had a glass with dinner at a restaurant. If you grab a 6, you’ll drink the 6, because it’s there. Maybe not at one sitting, obviously. I think this had more to do with changes in consumption patterns, not because people were wanting to become alcoholics or binge drinking, etc. I think people also entertained at home more, albeit with smaller groups. In our little school/neighborhood group, this became pretty common, during the summer, walking around the neighborhood in the afternoon, or on the weekends, we’d always be grabbing beers in the driveway or whatnot.
“14.99 for 8 oz of strawberries. Cool but expensive. Must be the grow lights or the rent on the buiding.”
And that’s on top of absolutely massive government subsidies. Again. Your tax dollars making the rich richer and sold to the public as a way of bringing fresh produce to the fast-food imbibing urban populations. Of course, the only people who can afford these products are the wealthy as well. Well at least someone benefits from all of this!
As for drinking while working? Come on Pumps. In the real world, we are judged by our performance. In your world, just pay your union dues on-time, get to work on time and what you do there really doesn’t matter. All increases are based on longevity. Heck, you could probably drink all day and no one would care (or notice).
I, for one, drink less at home. I do almost all of my drinking at bars and restaurants. So my consumption is way, way down.
BRT: I don’t deny alcohol sales increased during the pandemic for any number of reasons. I just don’t believe as someone does that it’s a negative of WFH, and had everyone been in the office it would not have occurred. I know people that are functioning alcoholics and have held their jobs for years, don’t know how, but they do. I also agree some people did increase drinking out of boredom, no gym, concerts, sporting events, nothing to do so might as we drink. Things are getting back to normal now so we will see what happens number wise with alcohol sales and consumption.
Bar at the distillery is on track for a record year of sales. We already expanded capacity and added seating for another 20 or so. Come outdoor seating season, and we’ll have room for about 70 guests. Suspect we’ll have no problems filling that on Saturday afternoons/evenings.
Lib: Same for me Lib. I only drink at home if socializing, dinner with friends, party , BBQ. I associate drinking with socializing and being out, otherwise I rarely drink at home.
Grim: Very happy for you.
2022 will be the year for police checkpoints.
Cha Ching.
3b,
New sex and the city series…guess what one of the topics was? One of the girls became an alcoholic during the pandemic. Why do you insist on thinking I’m dead wrong. You are telling me that people who WFH don’t have increased odds of increasing substance abuse? You think what you want, but coming into work in person prevents a lot of people from using their choice of substance abuse as much as if they were at home.
Pumps: Thank you, now that you pointed out it was on a Sex in the City episode, it must be true. I don’t know why you insist on continuing to embarrass yourself.
People that worked at work, will work at home.
People that were lazy at work, will be lazy at home.
3b,
Fine, I’m wrong. Whatever makes you happy.
I need a hobby… perhaps drinking would be a new and exciting adventure.
Holy sh!t you woke up with serious but hurt (yet again). You got a serious chip. Speaks volumes. Anyway, you should think about what I do and the conversations I have every day. Read the blow link if you have the time.
Ex says:
March 15, 2022 at 8:16 am
When I announced my daughter had been accepted into a “pricey” private college where she will more than likely matriculate. This mouth breather “Cornell Bro”…are you still renting Chi? Decides to weigh in with a comment directed at me personally and my own rather humble background at a college in the coal field. For all of the BS I see on this site, I have to remind myself that it is populated by a bunch of finance/bank employees. Really. F-ck you all.
https://ed.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/challenge_success_white_paper_on_college_admissions_10.1.2018-reduced.pdf
below …. oviously
Best section from doc…..
The Gallup-Purdue studies mentioned above show
a strong connection between certain forms of
engagement in college and future job satisfaction and
well-being. They report six key college experiences
that have an impact on how fulfilled employees feel at
work and whether they are thriving in life after college:
1. TAKING A COURSE with a professor who makes
learning exciting.
2. WORKING WITH PROFESSORS who care about
students personally.
3. FINDING A MENTOR who encourages students
to pursue personal goals.
4. WORKING ON A PROJECT across several
semesters.
5. PARTICIPATING IN AN INTERNSHIP that
applies classroom learning.
6. BEING ACTIVE IN EXTRACURRICULAR
ACTIVITIES.
(Gallup Inc., 2014)
And yet, as important as these experiences seem to be,
very few college graduates say that they experienced
them. Only 14% of graduates strongly agreed they were
supported by professors who cared, made them excited
about learning, and encouraged their dreams. Only 6%
of graduates strongly agreed they had a meaningful
internship or job, worked on a long-term project, and
were actively involved in extra-curricular activities.
And only 3% experienced all six factors (Gallup Inc.,
2014).
Pumps: Does not make me happy or otherwise. I just don’t like stupidity and the fact that if you don’t like something that you feel personally impacts you, you then attack it.
The world does not revolve around only you and yours, same with the rest of us. Don’t worry about my happiness, but I sincerely do wish you peace.
Phoenix: Very true.
If you are not aware, my father-in-law worked for the WVA State Regional Education Services Agency out of Martinsburg and Charleston.
He is a big proponent of duct tape (fka West Virginia Chrome).
Ex says:
March 15, 2022 at 8:16 am
This mouth breather “Cornell Bro”…are you still renting Chi? Decides to weigh in with a comment directed at me personally and my own rather humble background at a college in the coal field.
Pumps – re: “One of the girls became an alcoholic during the pandemic.”
Err more like thirty years ago when that stupid show first came on, and she slept with and married her bartender who she then gave chlamydia. Anyway I thought after sleeping with over 42 men and marrying one nut Steve 20 years ago she would calm down but apparently she finally decided to be a post-menopause thespian and move to California with her they/them pansexual 40 year old comedian. Some story….sounds like everyone I ever knew that lived in NYC. That poor Steve guy anyway, he let that woman veto his choice to get a prosthetic ball, he could have still been the banging bartender all these years but no he married the thespian.
re: I need a Hobby.
Eddie how about that heart racing French invention, Parkour?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Kvw2BPKjz0
Pumps the drinking likely has little or nothing to do with WFH and more to do with the isolation. People were bored out of their minds and stressed out over the pandemic, couple these things with constantly being at home with no need to drive anywhere, booze accessible and drinking became a way for some people to pass the time.
Substance abuse I think was a bigger issue for those who lost their jobs, I don’t for one think anyone could function under the influence better remotely than in person. If you are a functioning addict you find a way to use at work full stop, I don’t think people WFH picked up drinking on the job in any significant number if anything the demands/challenges were greater at home than in the office so I don’t know how one would function drunk practically speaking. Those who lost their jobs/careers as a result of the pandemic definitely went down the addiction spiral.
Jcer,
I can get behind that. Sad times lead to drinking, that’s for sure.
Juice,
Poor steve…lol
Jcer: Agreed.
Steve is your typical good guy getting f/ed over by his progressive wife.
Eddie,
Might I suggest a crisp, cool Rheingold?
“I need a hobby… perhaps drinking would be a new and exciting adventure.”
“My beer is Rheingold the dry beer. Think of Rheingold whenever you buy beer. It’s not bitter, not sweet, it’s the extra dry treat — Won’t you try extra dry Rheingold beer?”
If the charts are correct, barring macro events, this is probably as far north as she goes for a while.
If you have anything you wanted to bail on recently, now MIGHT be an opportune time.
In the case of Sex And the City I wouldn’t call any of them “girls”, those old hags are closer to an AARP card than being “girls”, heck one of them is already collecting SS. They could have just let that show die.
Thanks, Lib.
Libturd says:
March 15, 2022 at 11:51 am
If the charts are correct, barring macro events, this is probably as far north as she goes for a while.
If you have anything you wanted to bail on recently, now MIGHT be an opportune time.
Inside Chernobyl, 200 Exhausted Staff Toil Round the Clock at Russian Gunpoint
Trapped since their shift 3 weeks ago, the Ukrainians keeping the abandoned nuclear plant safe from meltdown are ill-fed, stressed and desperate for relief
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-chernobyl-200-exhausted-staff-toil-round-the-clock-at-russian-gunpoint-11647357032
My consumption is flat for the decade. 1 beer a month.
Hey left, if you are looking for ideas, check out Carvana. It’s been an awesome short every rip. It’s almost up 10% today.
Fast
Get yourself one of these if you want a new hobby.
https://www.guitarcenter.com/Squier/Bullet-Mustang-HH-Limited-Edition-Electric-Guitar-Olympic-White-1500000224341.gc?rNtt=bullet%20mustang&index=1
Ate lunch with 2 covid positive people on Friday. Still nothing. I wonder if I’ve acquired the latest omicron variant now.
Lib and Beer,
Rheingold and guitars… toss in the Chesterfields and I’m good to go. I have been banging on the acoustic as of late and pulled out the Les Paul here and there. The issue I have is that I blew out tendons on the inside of my right arm (inner elbow) over a decade ago picking up an old TV and the bicep has slowly began to atrophy. I should’ve gotten it fixed when it happened but it really didn’t bother me until this past year. I can’t pick or play the axe for more than a few minutes w/o getting fatigued. Certain motion as such placing my hand over my head and that type of motion reveals the weakness.
“Hey left, if you are looking for ideas, check out Carvana. It’s been an awesome short every rip. It’s almost up 10% today.”
Like it, I’ve disliked that company for a while but steered clear…think I posted why on here long ago, they make squat from car sales and everything from financing and rebundling the consumer debt associated with those sales….with AFRM shitty receivables getting hung on a securitization yesterday these guys would be prime [no pun intended] for a pullback during tightening credit and consumer pullback….although I’m still wary as securitization markets for shitty debt can stay irrational for incredibly long periods of time (see: 2008, lol)
Don’t see any news to drive the shares up today, any idea why?
It’s been constant short covering IMO. But the rips have been nasty. I think it was 2 weeks ago it bumped like 20% and then marched back down.
I can’t believe China is still locking people up in pursuit of zero covid policy. Absurd.
Zero covid was a huge mistake.
Pumpkin porn…demographics don’t matter they said. It’s everything..
“Geriatric Millennials got to buy houses at 2010’s prices and lock in a sub-3% mortgage rate. Younger Millennials looking to buy homes in the mid-2020’s are going to have to pay 2023-25 prices at potentially 4.5%+ mortgage rates. Double whammy.”
“The smartest thing I ever heard from Bill Gross (maybe it’s in @mdc’s book?) is there’s luck in being at the leading edge of a big generation. You get to buy stuff earlier than your generational peers. If you made it through 2008-11 intact you’re probably set.”
Think about this too…. there was a lot more competition for university admissions for anyone born in the 90s vs born in the 80s.
“Zero covid was a huge mistake.”
Ya think?
What about all its supporters over here…not in name of course, but in practice? Maybe someone ought to fire off a memo to the major school districts still enforcing mandatory masks.
I guess the goal all along is what was clearly stated in March 2020…flatten the curve of hospital admissions…and not kill grandma/grandpa/kids/insert random family member here.
Although no one would have recognized such rationale after it went through the liberal policy funhouse of mirrors…..
My office, March 28th, mandatory 2 days in. Testing required every other day, masks required when mulling about or in conference rooms, off when seated. Will decide what final phase looks like going forward. I doubt 5 days per week will ever happen again.
Got my car ordered.
Need to unlock my credit report. Of course one of the 3 doesn’t want to unlock.
Says it will email you a 6 digit code, no email for ten minutes now.
Hopefully the other two reports will be enough for them.
Alcohol is the most permissive, if not glorified drug in America. There is nothing good that comes out of it but everyone makes an excuse.
I only drink socially.. but during the pandemic I have finished some 6 packs every now and then. Always felt crappy the day after, but had a few good moments as well.
I just wish more people called it for what it actually is. An addictive drug.
Why is everyone buying new cars? Is it because new homes are out of reach?
BRT- Mazi Piri piri sauce makers Peter and Leslie are good friends of mine. He doesn’t own Langousta Lounge, but the hot sauce is the best. Leslie runs the farmer’s market on Main Street in Asbury in the summer where you can pick up the sauce.
Like I said, smart money moving in.
“Largest trade in 5 years on ARKK. Block trade.. fund or institution more than likely. Growth approaching a bottom? More and more think this inflation is permenant, FOMC, more and more bearish. Time to flip?”
https://twitter.com/jessekkm15/status/1503714116988506116?s=21
Don’t forget about caffeine and sugar.
RentL0rd says:
March 15, 2022 at 3:16 pm
Alcohol is the most permissive, if not glorified drug in America. There is nothing good that comes out of it but everyone makes an excuse.
I only drink socially.. but during the pandemic I have finished some 6 packs every now and then. Always felt crappy the day after, but had a few good moments as well.
I just wish more people called it for what it actually is. An addictive drug.
“Why is everyone buying new cars? Is it because new homes are out of reach?”
Well, some of us need them to get to work and, if it makes Pumpy happy, I can’t do my job from home. ( I had 200k on mine and it wasn’t worth repairing)
I don’t think many people are buying new cars more than before. I had to order one as they don’t have any to sell you anyway.
My bonus this year plus my raise will blunt the pain on this one.
Alcohol:
I just wish more people called it for what it actually is. Tax dollars for an addicted government.
And a reason to stop you on the road at Checkpoint Charlie for entertainment purposes.
Don’t forget about caffeine and sugar. (daddies)
Only a cucked man would watch that whole new Sex In the City series to completion. I watched the first one or two episodes with my wife and it was just totally gross, a few out of touch agomg white women trying to stay relevant by “getting woke” as if it’s the latest face lift technique. Pumps, how did you like watching Horseface asking Mr.Big to jerk off on TV the day before she let him die by forgetting to call 911? (We quit after that episode). I hear the fat hairy non-binary latinx went on to romance one of the girls, which would have to compete as one of the least sexy love scenes on film since Pink Flamingos was made.
Pretty sure we’re going to be finding fentanyl in sugar and coffee later this year
I think I’ll have a chai latte.
Alcohol had a crucial part to play in our evolution. We didn’t start farming because we wanted food, we started farming because we wanted to booze. Beer making turned the hunter gatherers into farmers.
Fentanyl is great stuff at the right dosages.
Keeps people from screaming in pain.
Damn,
Is that what that TV show was about?
Happy to report I have never seen a single episode.
Coast, nice. I guess maybe I’m getting confused about the restaurant. Yes, Peter definitely has an awesome sauce. Very unique. My friends father was selling it for him in Colt’s Neck for a while. We met him at that Asbury market when we were selling jam. This was like 15 years ago though. But yes, he was one of my main inspirations to make my own sauce.
Watched with my wife. I do try to be a good husband and watch shows she likes with her.
Zero covid is a mistake . . . Chinese equities getting ransacked. Anyone who has long been concerned about the Chinese political elite crushing the business elite, well . . . it was long coming but over the last two years, here it is. Is Jack Ma missing again?
I’m surprised oil moved back down so fast. While I wasn’t buying into the notion of $200/barrel or whatever, I thought that OPEC was trying to keep the price of oil high to encourage the next generation of American shale production to be put in place (investment money flows in) before strangling it out with increased supply from the Saudis.
Yeah but would you let her veto a prosthetic ball to replace one you lost to cancer?
What’s Indias annual oil consumption relative to Russian supply? Modi was loading up his shopping cart like it was the clearance aisle at the dollar store.
Stat of the day . . .
$4.5T – value of all public worker pension plans in the US
$500T – total global wealth
Pumpkin,
Did she also demand that you o re-enact the Mr.Big scenes for her?
Speaking of equities investments in authoritarian emerging markets . . .
The China wipeout seemed likely for a long time, even apparent. This Russian equities wipeout (-99.9%) was unforeseen, to me. I never thought Putin would cross the line so aggressively, and more importantly I didn’t see the West striking so hard with sanctions.
Do all the Russian firms get taken private or do they get nationalized before they are then sold off to private insiders again at some time down the road?
Would be interesting to compare charts of the Russian stock market from, say, 2012 – 2022 and compare to the same market from 1908-1918.
Grim,
India is always desperate for energy because their own state run companies in the sector are total crap, and the govt places combinations of subsidies and price controls on their fuels to win votes from farmers and taxi drivers. So then the government ends up eating big subsidy bills and they end up with shortages because that’s what happens. Just like the state run utilities subsidize electricity and let people steal it and then wonder why they are always short on capital to provide capacity and why there isn’t much incentive to expand supply. Indian government bureaucrats are even more pompous and clueless and corrupt than NJ ones.
That Russian Urals crude oil is exported via the via Baltic Sea ports, and has to go the long way to India. We have a nice big fleet there now, those ships should not be allowed to pass.
Pfizer suggesting a 4th shot/2nd booster?
NJ has basically given up on shots at this point, I suspect this new recommendation isn’t going to be considered by many.
Time for a new vaccine.
At the current vax rate, it’s going to take 3.5-4 years to get NJ’s unboosted population their 3rd shot.
SATC? Absolute materialistic horshite without a laugh or likeable character. I would run from any woman still interested in that. Fleabag was way better at portraying plight of vapid sex-addicted modern woman. It was twisted, very funny and pretty poignant. There were no mister bigs coming to save her.
Just watched S. Korean film Burning. Came out a few years ago. Subtle yet haunting if you can handle 2.5 hours and slow pace. Still trying to put pieces back to figure out WTF happened, so many metaphors and interpretations along the way. A bit like Memento but not in reverse order of events.
Yeah but would you let her veto a prosthetic ball to replace one you lost to cancer?
Heard of stories where women have convinced their husbands to get a vasectomy then divorced them right after.
About the only trick Satan didn’t attempt on me. Guess she knew that wasn’t happenin’
has to go the long way to India. We have a nice big fleet there now, those ships should not be allowed to pass.
Well I don’t think India will be happy if we restrict this.
Good luck getting many of your antibiotics as so many of them come from India.
“We gathered you here today because the President of the United States would like for you to lip sync Chumbawamba’s Tubthumping while waving a Ukrainian flag at the gas pump.
“a comment directed at me personally and my own rather humble background”
Careful Ex, his fragile ego cant really handle criticism.
“she finally decided to be a post-menopause thespian and move to California ”
Haven’t watched it, but a good plot would have been if she ran for Mayor of NYC. I wonder if anyone had the stones to pitch it.
The Senate just unanimously passed a bill making daylight savings time permanent. If this clears the House, no more changing the clocks twice a year.
Fuck Russia. I hope we bury Putin, that piece of shit.
I was at some function and my Uncle’s hedge fundie cunt-ass family was there. Once prick asked if any of my girlfriends had teeth. That was a dig at “Kentucky”. I did not have the heart to tell him they all made his ugly ass-wife look like a boy. I hate elites. Always have. No, I am not a GOPer, they are stupid souless fools, but I hate elites.
This dickhead and his wife both went to Stanford btw. Big fuuuucking Whoop.
ChiFi you claim to know my cousin from Hunter, ask him about me someday. I can assure you that there is literally nothing that I can do that would surprise my family. Not a humble brag.
Getting omicron proved to be much more effective than the booster. For anyone young, it was less mild than the side effects. Anyone old or at risk, probably the opposite.
“*The* low in stocks likely ahead…
VIX needs to spike
Put/call ratio not yet extreme
$NDX $SPX multiples still rich
Fed still tackling inflation
On watch for final 10-15% flush.”
Who’s ready for a good old recession???
Humm Deal near in Ukraine?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-says-some-deals-with-ukraine-close-being-agreed-2022-03-16/
Russia’s bleeding.
They are running out of Generals.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10618211/Ukraine-war-Russian-loses-fourth-general-Kyiv-claims.html
They are running out of everything.
I heard they are good on TP for a change.
In other news…
Don’t fight the Chinese FED.
The US only had 11 or so generals killed in action during WWII. Overall About 40 uS generals died during the war from combat, accidents, illnesses, heart attacks, and a few were executed or died in captivity.
Russia already has had 4 killed in 3 weeks. Wonder if Ukraine has intel on where the generals are going to be? Or is everyone saluting them in the field so snipers and drones see that and target them?
Yeah, but Putin’s a genius. Right Donnie?
Ex says:
“Yeah, but Putin’s a genius. Right Donnie?”
“…my Uncle’s hedge fundie cunt-ass family”
Ex has TDS, and is a weirdo; the angriest and most tightly-wound pot head I’ve ever encountered. And who uses goes online to anonymously whine about his uncle? What a womanly thing to do.
As for who’s a genius — just about any dictator who deals with SlowJoe. Maduro, Iranian mullahs…
Not a weirdo. Not at all. Fairly conservative for a “liberal” and able to stand up for myself behind a keyboard, or “gasp” in real life. Very blessed as you imbeciles like to say.
“As for who’s a genius — just about any dictator”
Yep, that sounds about right from a Trump/er.
“…my Uncle’s hedge fundie cunt-ass family”
oh they suck alright….one dude bought his own island, but they would not cross the street to piss on you if you were on fire.
The trump is a Russian agent hoax has come into better focus since the war began. Clearly the deep state wants confrontation. The Bidens and the political class used the chaos to go into Ukraine and steal everything that wasn’t nailed down. Any warming of relations is verboten and makes you an agent of Putin. Same thing happened to Tulsi Gabbard.
Trump is compromised. That is different than being an “agent”.
He is/was sympathetic and a sycophant for Trump. With him, he’d have been over and let Putin Put it in…..
Tulsi has a hot body, a mind crafted by Cult Christianity, and a face that is slowly losing it’s appeal. Her politics are not in sync with the party she is registered with so she gets no love. See also: that chick from AZ, Sinema or Enema or wtf she calls herself. She’s disgusting. It’s just politics are some sort of charade with most of these losers anyway. They are empty vessels looking for cash.
At this point, we’re compromising world security for what? To defend the oligarchs of the most corrupt country on the planet?
To demand Ukrainian sovereignty? Give me a break. We have an open border with fentanyl putting in non stop. Our consulate on the Mexican side was hurt attacked with grenades. It’s a fvcking joke.
Let us get our math straight. Warming of relations with Iran bad. Warming of relations with Russia good.
And always remember the populist playbook. If you look like you are contradicting yourself, you always have three clear outs. Claim it’s deep state, fake news, or a new conspiracy.
Blah, blah, blah.
For those worried about this China FED and potential Russian détente-induced bounce, we just made it to the 50% retracement. We are still 50% away from our recent peak and far below the 50-day average which is the most popular trend indicator for market trend reversals. Don’t get fooled by macro events. Powell speaks later today. Inflation is running at 10%. How big was your raise?
https://photos.app.goo.gl/eQuC6BqqUBKAstV37
Tulsi has principles. That makes her dangerous. She’ll never be welcomed by the establishment. And I’m not a fan of her politics.
Joe Biden is a fifty year politician who stole from us the entire time. He’s the human manifestation of compromised. Maybe that’s part of the reason the politicians are so eager to up-arm Ukraine at the expense of world security. They have a lot at stake personally.
9:49. I like saving the Ukraine and putting Putin in the ground.
I think its a win-win. Make no mistake, it is on folks. Half my family comes from this region. We left a long time ago, but those are my brothers and sisters over there.
As for the borders, shit man this was literally their land before it was “ours” or whoever lived here then, certainly not me. I was a distant smoke on the horizon somewhere between Russia and Poland. “I” was being conscripted by the Czar probably for the second or third time to march in his army.
My brothers and sisters over there were mostly murdered.
ChiFi, I forgive you for being you. Damn It. you read me:
https://youtu.be/snILjFUkk_A
Look back to 2016. Ukraine pulled hard for Hillary. They need to keep their backers in DC. Trump was a wild card so let’s create a dossier hoax.
Trump’s just pissed he didn’t come up with it. He’s served, now let’s allow him to have a TV in his cell in Rikers.
Whose land? Mexicans? Native Americans? Or whoever was here before them? Clearly Mexico has proven an inability to govern responsibly. It’s teetering on becoming a failed state. They can’t deliver the most fundamental thing which is to provide security for their own citizens.
Anytime there is strong man dictator like a “Putin” in control with a bloodlust for past glories and empires — there is bound to be trouble. I have to say, America likes a certain kind of trouble and this fits the bill. We are badasses. Pure and simple. God Bless this Great nation. Now, where’s my semi….??
10:08 we aren’t great at governing either mate. We are good at rearranging deck chairs.
Cost came back from the pricey place for the kiddo at $77k a year. A tough pill compared to a decent state school at $28k all in. Still waiting on SD. Stressful.
Is your cousin’s last name Cunanan also?
Ex says:
March 15, 2022 at 7:47 pm
ChiFi you claim to know my cousin from Hunter, ask him about me someday. I can assure you that there is literally nothing that I can do that would surprise my family. Not a humble brag.
Ex,
I wouldn’t mind seeing Sinema and Tulsi lezzing out, even though they are past their prime.
Which reminds me – how do people verify bisexuality when companies or institutions are seeking to meet their quotas for diversity, equity, and inclusion? Can’t you just say you’re bi, and say something like, “yes I’m happily married to my wife now, but 15 years ago I used to frequent the glory hole in the Newark Penn Station men’s room” It checks the boxes. Sinema says she’s bi, but there’s no rule saying you have to have sex with both men and women in the same week, or year for that matter. She has an ex-husband, but doesn’t have an official girlfriend. According to one source, you don’t have to have even had sex with both sexes, you just have to identify as bi. If you watch straight porn, but look a little bit to eagerly at the guy, you might just qualify as a diversity hire.
The politicians are mad because Ukraine was their big slush fund. They sent their cronies over to collect money that was being siphoned out from the billions in aid we sent them. Easy kickbacks with plausible deniability. Even if it’s not plausible.
BRT,
Correct. That and they supplied cheap labor to American corporations.
Leftwing: How are you doing with the levered short on BIDU you put on yesterday afternoon?
“even though they are past their prime.”
Well, that’s better than geriatric which is what is permeating in the white house, congres, and the house. Some are downright dinosaurs.
A new car followed by a JJ quality night.
Time to wake up and get moving. Good day to have off. But still things to do.
“Leftwing: How are you doing with the levered short on BIDU you put on yesterday afternoon?”
Ouch!
Chi,
In other news, I think our multi is going to be relisted. A good story for the blog, once I can tell it without it potentially impacting my future sale.
7.3 quake in Fukushima. Going to be a fun day.
What future sale? This is my #1 call of 2022…..
Libturd says:
March 16, 2022 at 11:53 am
Chi, In other news, I think our multi is going to be relisted. A good story for the blog, once I can tell it without it potentially impacting my future sale.
OBammy gave the Ukraine blankets; Trump gave them weapons which they’re using mightily against the Russian aggressors. Classic American patriots would do the same… fight until death for their sovereign and merciful nation. The collective left would flee to Canada because it’s the closest thing to France without having to risk crossing the Atlantic while agonizing over their potential demise.
It’s barely the middle of MARCH!
You think?!
“Powell: Labor markets are “tight to an unhealthy level.””
Eddie,
You do remember the 1st Trump impeachment, don’t you? It was all about Trump withholding aid intended to arm Ukraine. But who cares about facts? Certainly not you.
The Ten moved down to 224.6 bps before rallying a smidge.
dude ….. did you fucking cover yet?
Chicago says:
March 16, 2022 at 11:37 am
Leftwing: How are you doing with the levered short on BIDU you put on yesterday afternoon?
Leftwing can’t help you right now. He is busy washing dishes.
You do remember the 1st Trump impeachment, don’t you?
Was that the one where he ordered protesters to be tear-gassed for a photo-op or was accused of making up a lab-leak theory? Oh, I remember now… the impeachment where he was acquitted. I guess we can file that one in with the Russian collusion hoax and the fake January 6th erect1ion, too.
But this isn’t impeachable, is it now? –> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jyT1rnW9fA
Powell is such a cuck. Did this clear the spam filter?
Inflation is at 10% and our FED raised rates by 1/4 point. I’m guessing the next increase in May will be an 1/8th.
I will sleep comfortably knowing that even if the market rebounds, it will be short-lived. Spending is already showing signs of slowing which will result in extremely overvalued valuations. Eventually and I’m guessing sooner rather than later, we are going to have to take our lumps. You can only kick the can down the road so far before the road ends.
March is by its very nature my least favorite month.
Especially the ides…..
I was thinking of that as well. This has been a particularly difficult March for us.
Cheer up, Libturd
As Keynes pointed out, you might die before the price has to be paid.
I wonder if that’s what happened to JJ? Bullish on bonds to the end.
I’m fine. Really. Just too much shit with lawyers involved. I hate dirty pool with a passion. My brain keeps telling me to chill out. My heart keeps telling me to slash someone’s tires.
PUTIN channeling the Nazis today with talk of cleansing Russia and a talk of a higher caste and race.
Ed,
He did have crowd dispersed with pepper balls. Is there any fact that you will accept?
Old,
I would imagine this is how gay pron starts out. At least he did not call him a genius and savvy..oh wait.
“President Putin was extremely strong and powerful”
“I’m fine. Really. Just too much shit with lawyers involved. I hate dirty pool with a passion. My brain keeps telling me to chill out. My heart keeps telling me to slash someone’s tires.”
Be patient. You will get your chance.
Or time will take care of it for you.
One way or the other.
“Cost came back from the pricey place for the kiddo at $77k a year. A tough pill…”
Ouch. Negotiate that down. You said smaller, selective school? Unless they have some crazy low acceptance rate you should get something off sticker.
Chi….very funny….yeah, no Chinese stocks for me not a fan of undefinable country and regulatory risk at an oversold bottom but maybe that’s just me lol. Trading portfolio hit ATH today, previously mentioned I had 6-7% in VX futures and options, that printed well, took a majority off. Clearing my oil shorts yesterday helped too. Other big exposures were credit writes on FB, PYPL, Z, etc which also printed today. Would have been higher but when we rebounded after JPow was on the mic for a bit I took about 10% of gains and dumped them in ATM 0DTE SPY puts just-in-case….expired worthless, which gets me salty, but even after all these years it’s still hard for me to accept that it’s actually a good thing when your hedges don’t pay out, lol.
Lib, no forecasts from me as even aside from the hostilities the market will be all over the place trying to sort out today through at least week’s end so let things settle down but probably worth noting that historical odds are overwhelmingly against the Fed engineering a soft landing, that the 30Y is stuck in mud around 250, the five and ten are quickly catching up and are at parity, and you can get 200bps for your money for two years…I’ll make book on any takers on the Fed actually doing seven cuts this year…..careful if was you mentioning financials, common wisdom says they do well into the first few rate cuts, however, historically that has been with cuts starting with steeper curve….we’re pretty flat….
You would think so, But reality is that I talked two kids that got into “Chapman” today one got $20k and one got $40k. They looked at our earnings and figured”they can afford the full ticket” to which I say. Pfffft. What they don’t know is that I give ZERO fucks if my kid goes there or not.
P.S. I’m not sure how selective they are they are just expensive.
They looked at our earnings and figured”they can afford the full ticket”
They sound like attorneys.
It’s so funny Leftwing. I swear, about 90% of the stuff you warn me on is exactly what I either just read somewhere or was already thinking about. Notice, I have not changed a thing. Macro events and TA are not compatible. Macro events and fundamental analysis do relate. For the sake of society, I was really hoping for a 1/2 point increase, but knew it wasn’t coming. Volker, Powell is not.
So we wait slightly longer which is completely fine with me. Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither will my Costa Rican abode.
Ex, I wasn’t referencing financial aid but just raw sticker price. I have a data set of only two, plus assorted friends, none of whom would qualify and most of whom didn’t even bother with a FAFSA. But nearly all received some discount off sticker (except large State schools). We joked perhaps it was one area in which being better-to-do NJ suburban was an advantage…although just a general (uneducated) feeling we thought maybe the school did the math and as they were filling buckets figured a full pay kid with easy demographics was worth a little off for that slot. Chi likely knows better.
The one holdout from our HS cohort always seemed to be Providence, which had one of the higher stickers and no discount. Recently, kids from here have received assorted non-need funds…The kids I’m talking about aren’t academic standouts, they fit the ranges in the fat part of the curve, ie. it’s not really an academic scholarship.
Lib: Like you, I was expecting Powell to do 50 bps to really send a message but was not to be. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg research is calling for a recession and 20 to 30 percent hit on the stock and real estate markets.
3b,
I could see it happening. Easily.
Anyone else watching the Rutgers game?
The cause of inflation is and always will be dollar printing by the Fed. PERIOD. Russia Did Not Cause Inflation or High Energy Prices. The Bankster Federal Reserve and US Government DID..
Police are forced to protect conservative debater at Yale Law FREE SPEECH event from woke students shouting ‘I’ll fight you b*tch’: Victim warns ‘future of legal profession in America is in dire straits’
If you are truly for justice, why would you not be forthgiving with a tape. One would think honesty and disclosure would be the least you would like to do, yet it took a judge to pry it out of your hands:
” Video shows Bronstein being forced onto a mat in the police station’s garage while handcuffed then five officer kneel on his back as they extract blood
He screams ‘I can’t breathe’ 11 times before he eventually falls silent
The California Highway Patrol fought the release of the video tape, but a federal judge ordered them to do so”
Soon after, someone reminds the group: ‘Everybody’s on camera.’
“A 2021 law signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom makes it illegal for police to restrain suspects face-down because the maneuver has lead to multiple unintended deaths. Inspired by George Floyd’s death it, was passed after Bronstein died.”
“Moreover, their comments on camera seemed to indicate that they were of a mind ‘to teach somebody a lesson: ‘Well, if you’re not going to comply with what we want you to do, we’re going to do this the hard way and it’s going to be painful for you,’ said Stinson, who reviewed the video at the request of The Associated Press.
Finally, Stinson said, ‘It seemed that they were treating the incident as if the man was pretending to be unconscious. It did not seem to register with the officers that there was a medical emergency for many, many minutes.’
Less than 48 hours after appealing to Elon Musk on Twitter, Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, posted a photo of a truckload of satellite dishes.
Fascinating…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/home-turf-man-ukraines-digital-174715249.html
But Eddie, Adam Schiff and the corrupt deep state people on msnbc said that trump blackmailed Ukraine. It must be true.
Lib, fell asleep with 3 to go in regulation.
GOAT,
Yes, Trump is an evil criminal with an erect1on and the morally virtuous, utterly noble and just democrats have always acted in a righteous manner and have always kept the best interests of their muppet legions in mind. Especially the children!! Oh, the children!
Went to Levitt’s yesterday to get a few bags of fertilizer, prices went from $22 to $32 for 50lb bag. Still a bargain compared to HD, 50lb of Lesco for $58
Erin go bragh..Happy St. Pats Day to all. Ed, if we can get green top-hat on Dumpy he would be most Irish person around – Green hat, white raccoon eyes, bright orange skin. He is the Irish flag incarnation.
Just about a year since Joe appointed Karmella as his border czar; can someone summarize how things are going? I’m sure she’s been laser-focused, right?
3B – What did I say earlier about the FED? Seven small rate hikes from now until the end of 2023. Same plan as last time.
“The Fed projects rates going to 2.8% in 2023 and staying at that level in 2024.”
There is no way they are going raise rates enough to shrink the money supply quickly like what was done from 1978 – 1982. Inflation will continue to run hot until, and reality is it’s already too late.
The end game is they are getting what they have been trying since 2008, inflation and shrink the real cost of the massive debt with cheaper dollars. The long-run effects of an increased money supply is inflation and all they now need to do it keeping it from running wild.
Bystander,
Joe O’Biden is the malarkey and manky type of gowl.
Bottom line…
“The end game is they are getting what they have been trying since 2008, inflation and shrink the real cost of the massive debt with cheaper dollars. The long-run effects of an increased money supply is inflation and all they now need to do it keeping it from running wild.”
Kamala forgot that Ukraine wasn’t part of NATO. Find that a lot with the hard core woke, not great with facts. They’ve been schooled in the art of grievance.
And we’re all paying a tax to facilitate the Bidens plundering of Ukraine. When they went down the regime change road the likeliest scenario included Putin responding militarily.
That’s what we got. Not much for anyone but the politically connected except misery. Hunter got some hot money to feed his habits. Joe “the big guy” got a bigger beach house. The Bidens and the oligarchs did just fine.
Problem is, it’s running wild.
This will curtail spending which will lead to a massive recession making the masses poorer and leaving many out of work. All to make sure the 1% stay wealthy.
Lib – curtail spending? Only on things like healthy food. It’s still $2.50 for an avocado at Shoprite. They should be only 80 cents, the import ban was very short lived but the price increases are still here.
Anyway inflation initially causes increased borrowing, might be time to take a vacation on the house again etc.
Kamala punted a year ago, there is now even a congressman from Texas sponsoring legislation demanding she appear down at the border every two months. Secretary Mayorkas is point man now he is busy flying around Central America and Mexico begging those leaders stop the migrants before they get to the US border. With the lifting of the Covid restrictions there will be a millions of migrants headed north now as the weather is warmer and they can claim asylum and get in “temporarily”.
RU basketball the last two seasons has been good. They played in a way that is appreciated by fans. I feel like for the last 10 years before these two, they would just throw games away like bums – these last two years, they might lose but it wasn’t 100% frustrating to watch them play. If they had gotten a little extra luck last night, RU fans could have maybe hoped to get into the Sweet 16 as a top-end best case scenario.
Still Seton Hall and St. Peter’s in the hunt amongst NJ teams.
“It’s so funny Leftwing. I swear, about 90% of the stuff you warn me on is exactly what I either just read somewhere or was already thinking about…”
Can’t speak to the source but the chart was sent to me by a friend.
https://imgur.com/se3uerT
People on the right make good money over time, people on the left don’t. Happy in this aspect of life we are on the “Right” together…
Lib
Picked up one of those prepackaged corned beef on sale at shoprite, soaked it last night to remove some of the salt, coated it with some pepper and coriander to give it a little pastrami taste and is currently on the grill at 250. Kids are not big fans of the smoke so just using lump. Lets see how it goes
Putin speech was interesting one for sure, about a “natural and necessary cleansing of the nation” to “spit out like flies” all representatives of a fifth column and “traitors” who do not back the Kremlin line.
I know of someone down here who does work for a wealthy ex-pat, told me recently that person was getting increasing crazy and hired security etc.
JPow and the fed took one small step in the direction of greater prosperity and a brighter future for humankind by raising those rates yesterday. I hope they resist political pressure over the coming months and keep raising them. The system needs to face higher rates, marginal businesses need to fail, asset purchasing and consumer purchasing needs to cool, and most importantly, the Fed needs to re-load the revolver before we confront the next beast.
As for inflation, here is my unpopular opinion: I agree with . . . checks notes . . . furrows brow . . . Pumpkin that the long-term trend is toward deflation (so, I don’t know if I believe that inflation will run away and persist for a long time). Tech-enabled cost reduction permeates all industries and our American corporations are on the hunt for the next overseas nation that will provide low wages, business-friendly policies, decent stability, and ok sea ports. I remain shocked whenever I think about the fact that the Fortune 500 haven’t managed to grab control of the leaders of a nation on the West coast of Africa – low wages, leaders that can be bought cheap, access by the sea to the east coast of the US and Europe without passing through the Suez Canal, the Straights of Malacca, etc. I suppose it is difficult to replicate the obedience and diligence of the Chinese factory worker class, though.
Irish-Americans: 32M
Current Population of Ireland: 5M
Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
Finally, it’s remarkable how little media coverage on inflation focuses on the fact that minimum wages are rising all over the place.
In NJ, our current minimum wage is $13/hour. It was $8.60 as recently as 2018.
NJ Min Wage:
2024: $15
2023: $14
2022: $13
2021: $12
2020: $11
2019: $10
2018: $8.60
2017: $8.44
2016: $8.38
2015: $8.38
2014: $8.25
Classic Ed. I love it. You have the best craic vs. the other feckless content from Dumpy supporters on this blog.
Bystander,
Capital theater in Westchester has some cool gigs coming up; Steely Dan, Phil Lesh, Dark Star, Tedeschi Trucks Band, etc.
You tell ’em, Joe!
https://tinyurl.com/5afyfh5n
Yea, deflation is inevitable IMHO.. Economy 20’s years from now is going to look much different. I really don’t think we will need that many workers, so it’s going to be interesting how the social contract holds up under those conditions. All you need is the top workers in the future, they will guide the machines that will become the superior option to human labor.
Let’s be frank, quality of workers has been going down, not up over the past 2 years. One would think it is accelerating the transfer from human labor to machines.
This stock market is wild. Not making much sense. Maybe this has bottomed? Just really makes no sense to me based on a Chinese economy that is in major major trouble. XI is pretty much f/ed. Esp with the world starting to try and develop their own manufacturing again. China already peaked…
I saw that Ed but I call it the Donald Fagen tour. There is no Dan without Walter Becker in my opinion. Lots of music this summer. With kids, going to have to use time judiciously. Trying to stay local and with Fairfield Warehouse and new Bridgeport Amphitheater, much to see within 10m. Pearl Jam is up for the fall. Phish summer tour.
Crushed, Africa has a lot of issues that make it an unfavorable place to do business. The infrastructure is sorely lacking, the politics are too unstable, disease is still a threat and the population is too uneducated, they need people to run the factories, West Africa has had brain drain and does not have an good educational system it would be hard to staff anything higher than assembly line worker. Basically until West Africa stabilizes more and gets more developed major corporations will sit on the sidelines. At this point we don’t know if this changes in 10 years, 20, 50, or a hundred.
Complication with inflation vs. deflation is the dynamics around the dollar. The dollar has an artificially high value due to it’s status as the worlds defacto reserve currency. Even with all the news about the Saudi’s I don’t see that changing but I do see a future where countries do large deals outside the dollar which could weaken dollar demand and cause the US currency to slip. In real terms the amount of human effort and productivity to make certain things definitely goes down, the amount of dollars we need to pay might well go up significantly.
South Park was briefly funny again for a couple minutes, see yesterday’s episode from 2m30 through 4m15
https://southpark.cc.com/episodes/l3rtf5/south-park-credigree-weed-st-patrick-s-day-special-season-25-ep-6
Kids having fun on St.Patrick’s day
We tried a few times to build large scale call center outsourcing centers in Africa.
Very difficult outside on Northern Africa – Morocco specifically, and South Africa proper. I know a few French companies that have done well in the ex-French colonies.
We weren’t only the ones who tried with limited success.
Crushed – re: Africa…. You must be talking about manufacturing right? It’s been tried with limited success.
China’s success in dominating manufacturing started in the late 1970s, they allowed foreign investments in “special economic zones” along the coast. Rules for business are different in the zones and are more liberal, such as special tax treatment and the allowance of privately held or are private-state joint ventures many financed by Chinese banks.
Africa has been trying replicate this model of manufacturing and export-led growth for a long time now. Many reasons it failed is because of political instability and well that is not tolerated in China, it’s difficult to replicate as the Chinese workers don’t go on strike and well there aren’t Warlords talking over the government every few years either.
China is a leader now in Africa too via the One Belt One Road initiative. They are expected to advance past the West in Africa. They have somewhere around 40 African countries signed up for Belt and Road.
Our best bet is to partner with China on Africa because their growth is expected to be enormous in the coming decades it will be the next major up lifting up of a billion people out of poverty.
Our monetary system is debt-based. They need to increase the debt to increase the money supply. How can you shrink the former if you’re still increasing the latter?
Juice Box says:
March 17, 2022 at 9:30 am
The end game is they are getting what they have been trying since 2008, inflation and shrink the real cost of the massive debt with cheaper dollars. The long-run effects of an increased money supply is inflation and all they now need to do it keeping it from running wild.
Operating in Africa is like operating on a small Caribbean island – minimal local infrastructure and a need to import everything, including talent and skillsets.
China has such deep and diverse supply chains it’s absurdly easy.
If we struggled to operate call centers, which requires minimal education and no supply chain, good luck with complex manufacturing.
Russian losses in 3 weeks:
– 7000 Russian soldiers dead (21,000 wounded)
– 233 tanks
– 474 armored vehicles
– 52 comms & engineering vehicles
– 69 air defense systems
– 94 artillery systems
– 13 fighter jets
– 32 helicopters
– 428 trucks & jeeps
Medicago Covid Shot Faces WHO Rejection Over Company’s Tobacco Links
Canadian biopharma part-owned by maker of Marlboro cigarettes
That’s right, lets reject something that possibly works because Phillip Morris is linked to the company.
GOAT.
“When they went down the regime change road ”
Have you been drinking at the font of Kelly-Anns Alternative Facts? The regime change came under Donnies Watch in 2019. He and Vald thought they could strong arm the newbie comedian. Look how that’s working out.
As for Donnie supplying Ukkraine. It was more that Congress sent him a bill to sign that he could not veto.
The new BA.2 variant is silently spreading across NJ right now and no one is noticing. I might have had it this past weekend. 3 people in my department have it (all 3 shots & present during omicron explosion). I had lunch with them on Friday. I did have a headache and tiny cough for a day on Saturday. They all had a runny nose at best. I ran a test yesterday and it read negative, but I’m not sure these tests really work at this point.
The world could sure use the likes of Ronnie and Maggie again! What a powerhouse duo! Together, they liberated millions!
Grim
Today I asked for 3/4 of a pound of cold cuts at grocery deli. The guy asked me is that .33. I said no .75.
Also next time you pay cash for something that’s say $26.98, give the cashier $32. If they are under 25 they frequently look so confused. So glad we came up with a new way to teach math this century . Now so many people lack basic math skills for everyday life.
Fast
Thanks. Now I have those Russian losses running through my head to the 12 days of Christmas.
Lightweight, I’m not following.
What happened in 2019? Are you saying there any a coup in Ukraine in 2014 that bama and Biden admin sponsored?
Hold,
new ways of teaching everything have generally fallen flat on their face. Academia lies and says they are effective and they keep going further. No intellectual integrity. Only the old timers know what real teaching is anymore. When I came in, I followed the lead of 3 guys over age 65. What works works. Ironically, parents with the means have just used tutoring to supplement this and widen the gap even further. Kinda like when they shut down the schools.
My question about 2014 is what was it about. Just a smash and grab for Biden types or was there more to the plot. It’s obviously proved to be totally wrecked. If they meant to box in Putin they got it. But a cornered animal will strike.
Been sick as a dog for the past 3 days, but the two home tests I’ve taken have been negative.
Lightened up on more VX and now some PYPL positions…all were uncovered, everything else now was covered today or already covered…
Dipped a toe in something else…DNA. Did shares, intention is for a longer term hold. It’s in my high risk bucket (eg, trades the like of RSX, /CL) where I’m fully prepared for it to get halved but looking for a double or better. Went in for third of final. Their ‘earnings’ on 3/28 were already pre-released. Will hold this position and look to add/write options against it immediately after. Thesis…
Long term busted SPACs like DNA need to/will be fixed…they’re orphans, the capital structures are so fucked up it’s nearly impossible to value them given the myriad layers of equity securities, they have no Wall Street sponsorship because of that and how they came public. This was one of the least ugly girls at the prom. On DNA in particular the ‘orphanage’ is worse because their ‘product’ spans multiple verticals – Px, Dx, manufacturing, human, ag, all of the above? No firm is going to waste analyst time on this especially without having had the compensation (and being on the hook) from an IPO. Long term I’m looking for some resolution of the above issues. Short term looking for a pump from a ‘blue skies’ ER conference call and for the high volatility to maintain shortly thereafter enabling me to play with options after the call reaction to significantly reduce cost and enhance returns.
Make no mistake this stock can easily go to 1.50….DNA is far from the first go around for companies of this type – drug discovery tools with equity tails. A whole batch of them three decades ago literally used the same semiconductor ‘processes’ espoused by DNA and were market (not necessarily product) failures due to their exorbitant valuations at the time…sound familiar?….this company is challenged with a not attractive well worn pathway that anyone who didn’t just drop into this sector with religion knows well (yeah, looking at you CW).
Anyway, bottom line, I’m hopping in for only a portion of final hold ahead of a volatility event I will use to add/reduce cost basis in the shares, at a point where the risk/return profile may be disproportionately to the upside notwithstanding valuation issues and, importantly, it has a bullet proof balance sheet to survive. Willing to take a hit of 50% down of my 2/3 of final hold cost basis or if we get some crazy pop somewhere along the way no problem bailing and just treating as ST trade.
All disclosures YMMV,
Your local HS janitor
By/Eddie, seeing TTB in Red Bank tonight. Lesh just announced three weekends of three nights each at Cap in October. May have to come back for that…
On the TA tip, as promised. We are still about 20% away from a 100% retracement to the recent peak on the Nasdaq. If Nasty was to close above 13750 twice, it would indicate the potential reverse to the downtrend. It would also put the Nasty awfully close to crossing back over the 50 Day DMA (daily moving average), which is one of the most trusted indicators around. We last crossed the DMA to the downside on January 4th of this year.
“Russian losses in 3 weeks…” Four (?) generals too.
“Also next time you pay cash for something that’s say $26.98, give the cashier $32.”
I do this all the time, dislike the accumulation of singles (and pennies). You’re a better human than I…the cashiers fuck it up so frequently I got tired of teaching HS math and just pocket the wrong change. Figure if the proprietor can’t/won’t hire competent employees their mistakes are his cost of doing business….Swear one time someone gave me a twenty back when it should have been a ten….
Ween is playing Borgata two nights in June. I’m taking my son to the Friday night show.
Presale code is EVENT if anyone is interested.
Ed,
Maggie can rot in f-in hell, with a hot poker up her a$$. Hope Bobby Sands is looking down on her from above.
Even the GD knew how to honor him:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vksE591P2ss
By,
Yeah, the Sands thing wasn’t good, as far as what I see or know. I don’t know what to think on certain issues. I can’t agree entirely on the actions of one person or a group. Mostly, but not always.
Thanks.
I’m starting to get nervous, if S&P doesn’t hold 4400 and passes it up, might be time to just buy back in. Crossing my fingers I’m on the right side, otherwise have to suck it up and buy back in.
Libturd says:
March 17, 2022 at 1:41 pm
On the TA tip, as promised. We are still about 20% away from a 100% retracement to the recent peak on the Nasdaq. If Nasty was to close above 13750 twice, it would indicate the potential reverse to the downtrend. It would also put the Nasty awfully close to crossing back over the 50 Day DMA (daily moving average), which is one of the most trusted indicators around. We last crossed the DMA to the downside on January 4th of this year.
This is the only stock I’m building a position in right now. I really believe in it, but like you point out, it could def hit 1.50. I’m going to continue buying anything under $5. This is a risky stock that I think knocks it out of the park eventually.
“Make no mistake this stock can easily go to 1.50….DNA is far from the first go around for companies of this type”
It’s amazing that ark funds are running hard with the 10 year at the highest rate in a long time. I give up trying to make sense of this market at the moment. It’s f’ing insane.
Just started shorting some ARKK here to hedge some of today’s gains in PYPL and Z…..will do so up to 63…
Here are some of Ukraine’s estimate of the losses.
– 14000 Russian soldiers dead
– 444 tanks
– 201 artillery systems
– 86 planes
– 108 helicopters
https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1504419541778157570/photo/1
The truth will be somewhere in the middle, but would suspect it to be more on the higher side.
wtf?, no seriously… WTF! – Phoenix Edition
https://nypost.com/2022/03/16/womans-uti-was-actually-glass-tumbler-lodged-in-bladder-for-4-years/
Man, what a battle at 4000. Bears holding it off for now.
Meant…4400.
And the GOP Hypocritical UTurns continue.
https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1504245115023462400
Even Donnie stuck the knife in on the Ides of March. The smart ones know the tide has turned and have shifted accordingly. You’ll see the really stupid ones like MTG Boebert and Cawthorn, getting left to hold the bag.
It’s amazing that ark funds are running hard with the 10 year at the highest rate in a long time. I give up trying to make sense of this market at the moment. It’s f’ing insane.
Zoom out on your chart to 3 months
FAB – So when does Sleepy Joe pardon Hunter?
You know the million dollar scheme for tax evasion, and FARA law violations etc.
Russian disinformation claims are now proven false again as NY Times admits Hunter’s laptop is real, and Sleepy Joe also lied about it when asked during the campaign.I am not sure what is worse, that stuff or Joe not even recognizing his illegitimate grand child and having the kid to the White House for a visit. Does that child even get secret service protection?
Fast: Maggie can kiss my Irish- American ass. And lots of English despise her too. Destroyed much of British industry. A middle class background trying to fit in with the British elites. Huge chip on her shoulder, even the queen did not care for her.
Juice Box says:
March 17, 2022 at 3:49 pm
“Russian disinformation claims are now proven false again as NY Times admits Hunter’s laptop is real…”
The most discouraging reminder from this whole episode is just how broken so many of our once-reliable institutions are. We’ve known for a long time that journalism as a discipline and profession is dead, and the NYT (self-proclaimed ‘newspaper of record’) reminds us of that daily. But it’s almost hard to believe that our intelligence community (as an example) is just as broken. Of the 50 intelligence officers who went public just two weeks before the 2020 election to state that the laptop was likely Russian disinformation, I bet that 90% knew it was real, but lied to influence the election. And it might be even more damning if they actually really believed it was a Russian plant. In any case, very discouraging…
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-4393-d7aa-af77-579f9b330000
They are still covering for Hunter. Secret Service just told the US Senate after years of delays, that the agency has been unable to locate any emails or other records showing its agents coordinating travel or anything else for Hunter Biden.
They say they can find no emails related to Hunter, yet there are dozens of email correspondence from the Secret Service on found Hunter’s Laptop.
It’s still a cover up big time.
And we are not talking about National Security here either, they could go into closed session for that, simple things like a trip Hunter took for vacation while under Secret Service protection when his father was Vice President, Really no documents found? A total coverup, yet the documents are found on his laptop.
These agencies should not be allowed to lie to congress and the courts. It’s bad no matter who is President.
Hunter got kicked out of the military when his daddy was VP. Think about that one.
Juice, I like Seths take on the NYT piece. He digs deep and does the research.
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1504537918307811334
“Boy, you have to read pretty far into this to learn that after *years* of investigation by a Trump appointee, prosecutors aren’t even sure they have a *civil* case against Hunter Biden.
Meanwhile, we all saw the transcript of Don Jr. repeatedly perjuring himself before Congress.
[…]
I believe in equal justice under law for rich and poor. Because I want to be a man of principle, I also believe in equal justice under law as between two rich men. To watch Trump’s son get a pass on numerous crimes and now see Biden’s son hounded to the ends of the Earth is hard.
I don’t respect either Don Jr. or Hunter Biden, though the former has been a criminal and pathological liar pretty openly for years—and helped incite an armed rebellion against our government—while the latter seems mainly to be tacky, a recovering addict and a crappy businessman.
So let us be clear about something: any person who spent the Trump years defending everything any Trump did and now wants to write a *single word* about Hunter Biden needs to f*ck off, f*ck off again, then continue f*cking off until Fenrir attacks Heimdall and the Rainbow Bridge.”
Shut up…. no it is not. Bear market action in many stocks…. you need to go stock by stock.
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 17, 2022 at 2:35 pm
It’s amazing that ark funds are running hard with the 10 year at the highest rate in a long time. I give up trying to make sense of this market at the moment. It’s f’ing insane.
“With star investor Cathie Wood’s flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) down 45% year to date through Monday and the technology stocks she invests in looking shaky, you might think that investors would abandon her fund.
But that’s not happening.
Ark Innovation saw an inflow of $341 million Tuesday, the largest daily haul since last May, according to Bloomberg. The fund is on pace for a sixth consecutive week of inflows.
Those who bought Tuesday had good timing, at least for now. From Monday’s close through Thursday’s close, Ark Innovation soared 19%.
A three-day move doesn’t say anything about the long term, but for the present, at least, Tuesday’s buyers should be happy. Through Thursday’s close, Ark Innovation has slid 34% year to date.
Throughout the stock market’s slide this year, Wood has said that her favorites are merely going through a correction.
“We have a five-year horizon. I’ve never seen innovation on sale like it is today,” she said in January. Wood has noted that private-market valuations of tech companies have exceeded stock-market valuations.”
All I want to know is who is buying this much and why? That’s a ton of money coming in during a bear market the past 6 weeks…
“They say they can find no emails related to Hunter, yet there are dozens of email correspondence from the Secret Service on found Hunter’s Laptop.”
The laptop has no provenance especially when it went through Rudi Colludys hands.
https://twitter.com/maudi63/status/1504475653009145869
You think this post is even mildly humorous or trolling? For the first time in 2022 I will pull out the old standard “The Most Dishonest Poster”.
Fabius Maximus says:
March 17, 2022 at 5:20 pm
“They say they can find no emails related to Hunter, yet there are dozens of email correspondence from the Secret Service on found Hunter’s Laptop.”
The laptop has no provenance especially when it went through Rudi Colludys hands.
Here you go Fab because you are living in an alternate reality.
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1504412489764777993/photo/1
Ukraine wins the social media war.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-publishes-video-artillery-barrage-105945005.html
And Putin a sore loser:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/europe/putin-speech-russia-ukraine-conflict-intl-cmd/index.html
Did he really say “cleanse”?
Honestly, I see this as a clear bottom signal in her stocks. She is holding on, not making moves. Concentrating money in highest convictions for short term growth. Rocket ship when this market turns. Still a bear market, but high growth def bottomed.
“The lack of trades in $ARKK $ARKG $ARKW are the equivalent of running the Football straight at the defense and telling the defense what play will be run and then scoring a Touchdown. I like it.”
https://twitter.com/dilksjay/status/1504615498318757896?s=21
“You think this post is even mildly humorous or trolling? ”
No, I think it is factually accurate. Did you have another bad day with the Entitled Fcuks?
So she’s playing Putin’s strategy?
The Market Rose on the Fed’s Rate Hikes. What It Might Be Missing.
Randall W. Forsyth
Wed, March 16, 2022, 8:00 PM
Stocks responded bullishly to the Fed’s plan to raise rates seven times this year, but history shows that bear markets and recessions tend to follow tightening.
Juice, what’s the point? Trek and Politics have always crossed. In fact, without Trek we don’t have Obama. Who remembers this gem of a story and can make the connection without Goggling.
“Beleaguered Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Jack Ryan ended his campaign Friday, leaving his party scrambling to find a replacement with enough money and magnetism to mount a serious challenge against Democratic candidate Barack Obama.”
This Putin guy sounds almost as bad as Albert Fish
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_nQxRJ653E
FAB – Now that I have your attention, the Point is back to where I started today. Are you saying the US Attorney for the state of Delaware and the FBI are lying about the investigation? It was their subpoena for this laptop that started it all, they verified it to be real and presented it as evidence to the Grand Jury.
Indicted is the next NEWS story to be dropped. My question is what will be said when Joe Biden pardons his son, and before any trial occurs? What will be the spin?
“Are you saying the US Attorney for the state of Delaware and the FBI are lying about the investigation” No I am not.
“It was their subpoena for this laptop that started it all,” This is where you start to lose me. This implies that the subpoena was for a tax case. It was to get the laptop from the shop. Issacs has repeated been asked if he called after 90 days to remind of the pickup and his reply has always been “No Comment”. Here’s a scenario. Hunter calls the Feds and says “this guy is blackmailing me to get my laptop back” That would trigger a subpoena.
As too what’s on the laptop. It could all be true, but it is totally inadmissible. Provenance comes down to Origin and Authenticity. Issacs went through it, Rudy, NYPost, and a host of others. There is no way to tie those contents back to Hunter, they have been totally compromised. That said, if they can corroborate what’s on it elsewhere it will make it slightly easier, but they still have to get over the 4th amendment minefield that will be thrown up. That laptop will never see the inside of a courtroom against Hunter, but it may against Rudy and Issacs.
So Anonymous came out with a statement today targeting MTG as a Russian Asset. This popped in my feed. https://twitter.com/NotHoodlum/status/1504591962334191620
Thats Cold!
FAB – again with your twisted thinking. Rudy got involved long after the DOJ had an open investigation and the laptop was already taken by the FBI via subpoena. Everything he went to the Press about (and was killed by the likes off Jeff Zucker and the MSM and Twitter) was off a copy of the hard drive. You are claiming you know something about the evidence and possibly testimony of a secret Grand Jury. All you know is This. The NY Times story and the leaks to them about the IRS investigation which is separate from the DOJ Laptop investigation is a cover story, as if this was ever about taxes. Biden, his Uncle and possibly the “big guy” are in trouble.From Boboulinsky, Devon Archer and the cast of other characters called to testify to that Grand Jury this ain’t about taxes, it’s about corruption and dirty Russian, Ukrainian and Chinese money that made it into the corrupt Biden families pockets.