Bye bye cheap mortgages?

From the MPA:

Mortgage rates – historically low era comes to an end

The 30-year mortgage rate climbed above the 4% mark shortly after the Federal Reserve approved its first interest rate hike in more than three years.

Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.16% for the week ending March 17, a significant jump from 3.85% a week ago. At this time last year, the benchmark rate was only 3.09%.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded 4% for the first time since May of 2019,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. “The Federal Reserve raising short-term rates and signaling further increases means mortgage rates should continue to rise over the course of the year.”

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is now 30 basis points higher than a week ago, up to 3.39%. The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage jumped from 2.97% to 3.19%.

The spike in mortgage rates has already started to hamper mortgage application activity. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, overall mortgage apps dropped 1.2% week over week, with refinance activity declining by 3% and purchase applications edging down by 1%.

“While home purchase demand has moderated, it remains competitive due to low existing inventory, suggesting high house price pressures will continue during the spring homebuying season,” Khater said.

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65 Responses to Bye bye cheap mortgages?

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. Juice Box says:

    Grim – re: “Ukraine wins the social media war.”

    Highway to Hell for sure.

    The Ukranians seem to be winning the drone and artillery war too. They seem to be using deadly accurate GPS guided artillery. I don’t know if it is the Raytheon type but GPS guidance has to be involved here, it’s way too accurate.

    I wondered about Ukraine’s ability to use artillery a while back they have mostly soviet era guns, lots of manpower needed to load and fire those guns, manual targeting etc, difficult to reposition quickly etc. The Russians have autoloaded equipment, and the own verison of GPS GLONASS, supposed to be very accurate.

    The Ukrainians must have upgraded their equipment the Ukrainian 2S19 MSTA (soviet era stuff) self propelled Howitzers with perhaps some high tech GPS and laser targeting.

    Some hints from their social media.

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just my opinion, not sure if I’m correct, but it seems like Ukranians are just an extension of our military. Basically a testing ground for our weapons. Seems like the lesson being taught here is to not f’k with America.

    “The Ukranians seem to be winning the drone and artillery war too. They seem to be using deadly accurate GPS guided artillery. I don’t know if it is the Raytheon type but GPS guidance has to be involved here, it’s way too accurate.”

  4. grim says:

    This is nuts:

    This couldn’t just be a Javelin, unless they so luckily detonated all the on-board munitions with that hit. There is absolutely nothing left of it.

    This is the infamous “crankshaft and pistons” video. It blew the whole damn engine block apart too.

  5. Juice Box says:

    That 2S19 MSTA carries 50 rounds of 152 mm high explosive shells. There is a video explaining why the tops pop off the top of the T-72 tanks like this one (it’s on a t-72 base) why ones like these ones blow up completely.

    The ammo is in an autoloader and it’s unshielded, the Javelin or NLAW penetrates it from the top and all the shells explode.

  6. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – not really. They have mostly very old soviet gear. We gave them Javelins, sniper rifles and grenade launchers, the Europeans gave them NLAWs but most of everything else is Soviet era very old equipment more than 30 years old, or some Ukrainian designed weapons like their own Cruise Missiles.

    The Nerds at Wikipedia have collected a nice record, a breakdown of the number of pieces and the age of the equipment.

  7. Juice Box says:

    re Europe for the summer.

    Those things are thirsty about a third of a mile per gallon.

    184 gallons a full tank will take you only 62 miles. That is why they did not make it to Kyiv.

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I just don’t see how Ukraine is still standing without our help.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you want to know what stagflation looks like, check out the housing market.

    The conditions that existed during the 1970’s — high inflation and stagnant output — are happening already in this segment of the U.S. economy

  10. leftwing says:

    “The lawyer’s statements came on the heels of a New York Times report that revealed Hunter Biden had taken out a loan to settle his seven-figure tax bill amid the continuing fraud investigation.”

    Hmmmm…wonder if the average citizen could get a loan in excess of their gross pay to pay an IRS settlement….

    But yet the NYAG bangs away on the difference among various real estate appraisals in a commercial real estate transaction where no party is harmed and no party is asserting harm….

  11. Juice Box says:

    Left – Who says it was a bank?

    There are plenty of deep pockets in the party. Remember when Terry McAuliffe fronted $1.35 million to Bill and Hillary when they could not qualify for a mortgage, just so she could run for the NY Senate seat?

  12. leftwing says:

    Dude, I didn’t say bank either…fully expect it to come from the cosa nostra part of the Dems.

  13. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – “Ukraine is still standing”

    What we have here is the rare intersection of corruption and incompetence.

    Those Oligarchs and their fleets of aircraft, multiple homes on every continent and massive yachts do not come cheap. The money was stolen, some of the Russian units in Ukraine are even fighting with ancient WWII weapons. If the casualty counts are anywhere accurate about 1 in 5 Russian soldiers involved in the invasion are either now dead or wounded.

  14. leftwing says:

    Useless people who literally could not function in society entering positions of power and grifting.

    At least a greater proportion of the Rs actually have exercised their bodies, minds, or personal capital for earnings in the private sector.

    I don’t recall exactly but at the time of the Clintons not being able to afford a median higher end suburban home a stat came out regarding their residences….no time to check to get it specifically correct but it was something on the order of if you added up the time they spent in the AK gov mansion and the WH for the better parts of their adult lives at that point they had been wards of the State…..sounds about right to anyone who has actually worked for a living. POSs.

  15. Juice Box says:

    Left – just elaborating for the peanut gallery, and how it works with an example. Mine is a great one BTW the sitting President at the time Clinton could not qualify for a mortgage so one of his cronies puts up the entire loan amount for collateral. How is that not a gift and subject to tax?

    BTW how was the show? I have not been to the Basie in a while, may need to start hitting shows again too.

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    Those Oligarchs and their fleets of aircraft, multiple homes on every continent and massive yachts do not come cheap. The money was stolen, some of the Russian units in Ukraine are even fighting with ancient WWII weapons.

    Sounds close to what Ayn Rand describes in her writings. A ruse on one side and pilfering on the other, all leading to a fake façade eventually exposed. Much like what the democrats are facing now… tangible output based on rhetoric and symbolic dreams.

  17. leftwing says:

    Who was mentioning CVNA the other day?

    Pull up a five minute chart from 3/9 to date with volume…I’ll ask someone I know smarter than I am but that is one fucked up chart….big dumps at close each day and then all the following days except one pumped higher on low volume with the same massive dump at the end of the day….wash and repeat….I mean just look at the size of the volume bars at close each day and then the pop the next morning…

    Part of the reason I avoid the stock so far…got burned on it a couple years ago….these companies can jerk you around endlessly and unpredictably….

  18. BRT says:

    Left I did. On a lot of these stocks, they are playing games on the rips. On Twilio, I watched it go from 200 to 220 on earnings aftermarket, then proceeds to crash. So what looked like a 20% hit to me turns into a 30% gain not soon after holding through the nonsense.

  19. Libturd says:

    Today, so far, shows the crazy power of TA or perhaps the power of understanding the algorithms the HFTs use. This morning, the Naz shot straight up to the level of the last peak to the dollar (13,745). This also happens to be a hair short of the 50 day DMA. It kissed the line and went straight down.

  20. BRT says:

    That being said, I’m on the sidelines for the time being. I don’t want to be short anything when the war magically ends.

  21. Libturd says:

    If the war ends with Russia winning, you might not want to be long anything either. Sidelines might be the ideal position for this macro event.

  22. Libturd says:

    And we are testing again!

  23. Juice Box says:

    re: war magically ends

    Putin just got up on stage at a full stadium full of Russian supporters and made a speech. I don’t think he is going away anytime soon.

  24. BRT says:

    If the war ends with Russia winning, you might not want to be long anything either. Sidelines might be the ideal position for this macro event.

    Basically, that’s what I am. Mostly cash with a little hedging of tail risk on both ends.

  25. Fabius Maximus says:

    Chi, still reading that Murdoch Rag. Maybe this one will have more credibility than some in the past.

    “A Biden campaign spokesman said Mr. Biden’s official schedules did not show a meeting between the two men. A lawyer for Hunter Biden, George Mesires, told The Washington Post that “this purported meeting never happened.”

    The New York Post reporter who wrote most of the article refused to put his name on it because of concerns about its credibility, two Post employees have said.”

  26. Fabius Maximus says:

    Hmmmm…wonder if the average citizen could get a loan in excess of their gross pay to pay an IRS settlement….

    I wonder if an average businessman could get a 100mil loan after their Tax Firm threw them under the bus. Just another common commercial real estate transaction, Right?

    Trump Scores New $100 Million Loan for Flagship New York Tower
    Axos Bank, run by a Trump donor, made the loan last month
    Trump Tower’s previous loan was put on a watchlist last year

  27. No One says:

    Why would Hunter need to borrow money to pay tax debts when all he needs to do is sell a couple of his brilliant artworks to genuine art lovers with impeccable taste to raise the funds?

  28. Fabius Maximus says:

    As for that Putin Rally.
    Many said they worked in the public sector (e.g. schoolteachers), and that they had been pressured into attending by their employers. One group of teachers, from a town near Moscow, were being told what to say to us by a woman who appeared to be from the local administration.
    One man, who works in the Moscow metro, told us that he and other employees had been forced to attend the rally. “I’ll be here for a while and then I’ll leave… I think most people here don’t support the war. I don’t,” he said.
    n comparison to opposition rallies, most people didn’t want to talk, be filmed or answer any questions. Some would cover their faces or put up their hoods when we said we are journalists. Many seemed embarrassed or ashamed to be there.
    Students told us they had been given the option of a day off from lectures if they attended ‘a concert.’ Some of them didn’t even know that the event was dedicated, in part, to support for Russian forces in Ukraine.
    There were doubtless some people in attendance who genuinely support President Putin and the “special military operation in Ukraine”, as the Kremlin prefers to call it.

  29. No One says:

    That would be awesome if Axos Bank went bust because of that loan. Lending money to Trump real estate projects has historically been hazardous.

  30. JCer says:

    We are not seeing the full picture in the west, the CIA/MI6 is orchestrating the info war for Ukraine. The Russians have cut off the cities and control the skies, if they cannot gain territory and are taking heavy loses they will dig in and shell the cities while cutting off utilities/food/water etc. A Russian defeat likely means scorched earth in Ukraine, the Russians will not surrender and Putin isn’t going anywhere.

    Tactically speaking it is over, Ukraine has lost, negotiating the surrender is all that is left. Zelenskiy begging congress for a “no fly zone” and weapons is a bid for a lifeline, without foreign intervention he is tactically defeated and the Russians can inflict massive suffering on the people with minimal casualties on their forces.

    This is a mess the best scenario involves a ceasefire where Ukraine keeps it’s territorial integrity, Putin needs to be given an off ramp.

  31. No One says:

    I agree that the media is covering the war in a way that is definitely “rooting”. Which is natural because Russia is the aggressor and killing innocents for no good cause. Ukraine may be losing the war but is “beating the spread” in terms of how costly it is to the Russian military. I wish them luck, and hope they have the equipment to hold off the Russians. If Hunter was a real man he’d load up his crack pipe and his gun and head off to fight with his old buddies on the board.

    Also played up in the media is the Russian dissidents against the war, with virtually no coverage of the many Putin-followers in Russia. Don’t underestimate the level of brainwashing that occurs when government controls the media. It’s in Russia and it’s even stronger in China. There’s lots of people in both countries happy to see the world burn as long as the US is seen as the loser, so great is their envy and resentment.

  32. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Looks like another globalists neocon debacle ushered in by corrupt old Joe.

    Heads Putin wins, tails we lose.

    How ever likely it is, how is ukraines sovereignty worth a broken Russia, new c old war, resource starved world economy?

    It’s is totally fvct to get to where we are.

  33. BRT says:

    Don’t underestimate the level of brainwashing that occurs when government controls the media. It’s in Russia and it’s even stronger in China

    It’s also ridiculously strong in the US as well.

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Tough market to read right now. Moving up on low volume, so I’m still not diving back in. Will have a little more patience since it seems like it is a short squeeze, but getting close to throwing in the flag. This is too many green days in a row…might be the start of a run, why, who knows.

  35. SmallGovConservative says:

    Couple of examples of the insanity of the world that the woke left and their Democrat enablers have brought us here in the USA…
    – In Russia, people have died trying save a free and independent press from Putin’s onslaught, while here you have free and independent news organizations lining up to be the mouthpiece(s) of the Dem party.
    – In a ‘victory’ for ‘authenticity’, a ‘man’ just won the NCAA 500m women’s swimming championship — defeating among others, an Olympic medalist.

  36. Chicago says:

    Left: Got to put SQ on your shorting radar. That fucker will rip your balls off though. It is a widow maker. Get your levels right

  37. Libturd says:

    “Get your levels right”


    Pumps. I am a robot. If we close far above 13,745, I start scaling back in Monday. Probably do 15% bringing me up to 35/65. Would consider doing 20 or 25, but I think this inflation is going to cause a recession if we are not already in one now.

  38. grim says:

    Ukraine is clawing back territory, pushing artillery outside of range.

  39. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    The tide usually goes it right before a tsunami hits.

    Even the javelins carry a risk if they are viewed as an escalation. Is the Russians are seeing large defections due to their use they may ratchet up the pressure. This is madness.

  40. No One says:

    That subsitute teacher can claim it was just a big misunderstanding related to his jock itch problem, right Pumpkin?

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the type of losers they are getting for substitutes in this job market. Sad.

    This might seriously hurt our economy if this labor market remains this tight. Worker quality is going down the tubes and you have to pay up for it as a business owner. F’ed.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When workers get to dictate to the business the terms, this is what you get. It’s like having a 100% unionized workforce. Who needs unions anymore. Private workforce telling bosses I want to work from home and boss has no choice but to say okay.

  43. BRT says:

    No One,

    The Italian teacher at my last school got into a police chase in Raritan a few years back. When they finally got her, they nailed her for possession. Somehow, she still has a job. But getting in an argument with her overzealous supervisor (the daughter of the former principal) will get you fired immediately.

  44. Ex says:

    Admins are a very special breed.

  45. Ex says:

    2:20 with schools generally failing to educate as they do, you’ll continue to see helpless people in the workplace.

  46. 3b says:

    Pumps: Is that like public sector unions that get to dictate to the rest of us? We have no say, so now you have an issue when private sector gets to dictate as you (wrongly) say?

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:


    No, it’s not. Give it a rest….please.

  48. 3b says:

    Pumps:Yes, I want to , but as long as you are going to post your personal insecurities and hostility to WFH, I will challenge it.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Give it a rest..

  50. 3b says:

    Pumps: Kettle-Pot black.

  51. Grim says:

    Russia now trying to dig in fortified defensive positions north of Kiev. Clear indication that they are getting pushed back – unable to hold ground.

    Archaic mechanized ground war tactics. Cue the drones. Russia is done.

    #2nd greatest military on Earth? Not even close.

  52. Juice Box says:

    Humm, apparently the Ukrainian army has set a record in the effectiveness of the use of USA Javelin anti tank missile. 112 shots – 100 accurate hits on the target.

  53. Libturd says:

    Red Army = Dead Army?

  54. Juice Box says:

    What kind of shit is this? Seems the warmongers over at the NY Times are giddy butare knocking our Javelin which will kill a tank from over two miles away, it’s truly fire and forget unlike the NLAW.

    “Ukraine Is Wrecking Russian Tanks With a Gift From Britain”

    ” the NLAW is better for close-quarter battles and ambush scenarios.”

    Yeah like people want to get up and close to a tank column….

  55. Juice Box says:

    Here is a decent article on why we sent so many weapons.

    There is a huge amount of Russian armor to defeat still.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Think I’m jumping back in and prob selling again end of april. This might be a strong rally in the short term.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m still going to think about it, though. I just see so much pain for this year. So difficult to jump back in.

  58. Samivel says:

    I lived in eastern Ukraine in 2002 with now ex wife while waiting for her student J-1 (?) visa to expire and she could return to US.
    Good people there. Tough men. Beautiful women.
    They were very Russified no one hated Russia but they absolutely loved their country and were proud of their independence.
    The vast majority of regular folk were very poor. They certainly don’t need this. It’s
    terrible. They have a deep history of suffering. The vast majority of people supported the
    2014 changes. Yanukovich and Kuchma were just too corrupt.

  59. grim says:

    Paid my friend Alex in Kyiv’s rent for the next few months. His wife lost her retail job, and his business was completely destroyed (Kharkiv). Insurance won’t pay anything for war related claims, and he basically lost everything he worked for his whole life.

  60. Ex says:

    Extremely kind Grim.

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