From Marketwatch:
Recession is ‘almost inevitable’: former Fed Gov. Ferguson says
For months, former Fed Governor Roger Ferguson has worried the risks of a recession were rising. Now, he said, a recession in 2023 is nearly unavoidable, with the chances “definitely over 50%,”
What changed? In an interview Monday on CNBC, Ferguson said it was fresh signs of spreading global economic weakness, including in China.
“The rest of the world is also slowing pretty dramatically,” just when the Fed as other central banks are starting to raise interest rates to try to curb inflation.
“It’s a witches brew,” Ferguson said.
First
Bit shocked this morning by the scotus leak. I didn’t think it would ever happen.
Didn’t think Roe would be overturned or that SCOTUS opinions would be leaked or both?
Its Morning in Gilead.
If you didn’t vote for Hilary, this ones on you. Go reclaim your party.
Overturned.
We live in a leaky world, that was only a matter of time.
History Rhymes Clerk Larry Hammond leaked Roe v. Wade to Time Magazine before it was officially announced.
Congress has had 50 years to make it law, they need to do their job.
FlabMax: we are in NJ. Nothing we do matters. Regardless, our electoral votes went to Hilary. Also for the record, I did vote for Hilary.
If you want to blame anyone, blame RBG for her hubris in thinking she could cheat the inevitable.
FAB you act just like another NPC, just one of the vast mob of social media bots now trying to rally support for the mid-terms right by spewing nonsense that Hillary was a great candidate. She wasn’t, she was a war monger who was for getting rid of PUTIN and heck regime change all over the world. If she was POTUS the Ukraine war would have begun back in 2017 along with WW III and the children of someone you know would be dying over there.
I am most worried now that the last hurrah for the boomer Anti-war generation of the 1960s is now leading us into WW III. I believe we are in for some hell now, as the war drum is now beating ever faster.
The Dems have the votes, just like they did in 2010. They can codify and pass ANY LAW, they should do like Bernie says screw and the filibuster.
Overturning Roe is another fracture in the union. How many more before the union cracks?
So do we try to jail the leaker? Do we jail the publisher the same way we did Julian Assange?
Why would anyone be surprised? R nut party lives in a theocracy but hide behind flag and democracy. You have morons claiming that promoting black judges are a problem when they have been packing court with Catholics exclusively for 35 years. Settled my arse. It was always coming to this..vote accordingly if you have any semblance of a conscious for how society really works, not violent fantasy book
With all the crap going on, this was the last thing the country needed. Let’s see what happens now with the mid terms.
Roe overturned is the result, most of all, of the utter arrogance of two women:
Hilary Clinton – the only centrist D candidate that could have lost to Trump in 2016. Biden would have won. Any D centrist besides Hilary would have won. Bernie might have even beat Trump in 2016, too. Hilary was uniquely hated in a way that Biden or Kaine or whoever never was. Heck, lots of people are dissatisfied with Biden today, but I don’t think many have intense personal animus towards him.
RBG – absolutely ridiculous that she did not retire the day after the 2012 Presidential election, when Obama secured his second term. She was an old survivor of cancer – the length of her lifespan was a medical miracle, likely top 1% for someone who beat pancretic cancer, but she had too much hubris to retire. It’s especially galling because she could have went down to somewhere in the federal Circuit Courts and continued to be an incredibly influential jurist for the rest of her life.
Crushed, BS. Packed court with Catholics going back to Reagan..everyone focused on color and gender
Roe, if overturned . . .
FEDERAL
-Congress could likely pass a statute which states that a woman has a right to an abortion, which would be constitutional and NOT struck down even if there were 9 conservatives on the SCOTUS
-Congress could likely pass a statute which states that the federal government is preempting state power on this topic, thereby creating a 50-state law
STATE
-even if Congress does not act, SCOTUS is merely overturning the (1) Federal, (2) Court-Created mandate of Roe
-states are still free to pass abortion protection laws
-a woman seeking an abortion in a state which makes abortions illegal has the right to cross state lines to seek out an abortion
When you slaughter 30 million unborn children under the legal premise of privacy, then yes, you will have to reckon that eventually.
And what does using race as a qualifier have to do with a philosophical qualifier? Please tell me you can comprehend the difference.
Bystander at 8:53 . . . what is your fascination with Catholics on the Courts?
You mention this a lot.
I ask, because I’m sure if the R’s wanted to find anti-abortion judges who happened to not be Catholic, they could find thousands of them – enough to fill the whole judiciary 100 times over. So, even if Catholics are more likely to be anti-abortion, it is not like it is exclusively Catholics who are anti-abortion. Further, in 2022 America, the identity people have with their SPECIFIC religious background is low and lower than ever. So, I don’t see in 2022 America much difference in attitudes and lifestyles amongst Catholics compared to Protestants.
I agree if your point is that it has been a 50-year project of the R’s to get Roe overturned. And, the R’s knew that the game was going to be won by WHO sits on the Court (meaning, whether they were pro-abortion or anti-abortion) rather than WHAT was argued. And, thus the 50-year project meant that the R’s focused on the abortion issue when selecting judges. But, I do disagree that that meant they needed Catholic anti-abortion people rather than non-Catholic anti-abortion people.
re: RGB not retiring.
It’s pretty simple. When Obama was elected to his second term Ginsburg already had the cancer that had killed her mother and would eventually kill her. She knew her days were numbered, and just did not care enough about the party or the country. For some people reaching the pinnacle of power and privilege IS refusing to let other people tell you what to do.
However if you just want to live for yourself, do as you like and “not let other people tell you what to do,” then you should not be in public service. She is the perfect example of the need for term and age limits in the courts.
The Democrats have put forth legislation for it, but they cannot get it passed even with a majority. I wonder why? Perhaps because most of them are lawyers?
It’s a straw man argument. It animates the low info folks.
One of the fictions that holds America together is that the SCOTUS and the judiciary, in general, is not political. However, if you read enough 5-4 opinions (whether the left or the right wins), you inevitably conclude that this stuff is political.
The constitutional law professors in law school tell their students that the “this is just politics” analysis when comparing a 5-4 case overturned by a 180 degrees different 5-4 case when the court’s composition changes is not worth engaging in (i.e., you need to parse the differences and credit any reason outside of politics for the change and BAM – now you are doing legal analysis the right way).
My mid-terms prediction has changed with this leak. This is what happens when you allow a shallow moron like Trump to appoint Supreme Court Justices. And the Republican party had it all coming together so nicely.
This leak is the greatest news I’ve heard in the past thirty years!
Yesterday at the low, the SP500 got to about 15.5% off ATH. Also, almost hit its 52-week low. How low can it go?
Lib at 9:10 . . .
So, do you think that the R’s take the House, but not the Senate.
Or, you are now predicting that the R’s won’t even take the House?
I note that the R’s need to just flip 5 seats or so to win the House. I believe that the betting markets are lined up where this is a bet that you need to place $0.90 on the table today to win $1.00. And, indeed if there was place I could bet big on this, I would place 1% of my net worth on the R’s taking the House.
Yes Crushed.
The SCOTUS has always looked above politics when it comes to the issues that matter the most. Thanks to Trump, this appears to be no longer the case.
Few on the left have been endeared by Biden/Harris, but this no longer matters. Again, another thing Trump touches turns to complete trash.
Twelve hours since the leak and the marches are already being planned. Get ready for the Civil War talk.
I was looking into where one could bet on the 2022 mid-terms, and I wasn’t finding satisfactory outlets:
-Iowa Electronic markets (limits your bet to $500 or so)
-Predictit (limits bet to $850, but it costs 10% to withdraw money)
-Augur (a crpyto-based betting marketplace, but it doesn’t seem to be running – if this was running and trustworthy, they would theoretically permit unlimited betting in Augur coins on politics and other such things, but of course you’re facing currency risk when placing a bet 6 months out)
-there’s some other marketplace making a push on betting on the weather and whatnot – they just had an interview a few weeks ago on bloomberg radio (cant recall the name) but I looked it up and they don’t allow gambling on politics
Crushed. I’m not a wonk. I don’t look at the numbers that closely, so I can’t answer you. But I would be that every district and state where a close result was predicted, is now null and void. Nothing brings the Democratic Vote out like the fear of the overturn of Roe V. And for good reason.
The Republicans have become the Taliban.
Bystander – re: How society really works.
Well for one thing 20% of this country identifies as Catholic, that makes them a minority. The fact that so many made it to the court is a testament to hard work above all else. Anytime a minority works hard they should not be held back and definitely not be considered a PROBLEM because of their religion.
But yes let’s consider it’s those dastardly Catholics that made it all the way to the Supreme Court, they are all Opus Dei and are hidden secular priests. Look I will be nice, you aren’t going to win too many arguments in and out of court blaming just one religion or even all of them, this is about Law and in this country we have separation of church and state. All Congress needs to do is pass one a Federal Law or well it’s up to the states. Now argue away I would rather this be all settled before I am dead but as we all know we cannot get everything in life.
Libturd says:
May 3, 2022 at 9:18 am
“The SCOTUS has always looked above politics…”
Add SCOTUS to the list of institutions destroyed by the radical leftists that now control the Dem party — joining the FBI, CIA, CDC, etc. The leaker was almost certainly Sotomayor or someone approved by her; is anyone surprised that one of Obama’s lackeys ended up destroying the court?
“Get ready for the Civil War talk.”
Should be fun. Is there any doubt who’d win a battle between the red states and the puzzy-hats?
Oh my, the hysterics. Complete meltdown underway.
It’s a marginal issue. The left is dominated by largely white progressives. Those are not the swing voters.
Suburban whites and working class minorities are swing voters. They are far more moderate on social issues including annotation.
Today’s primaries . . .
In primaries today, the four wings of the American political spectrum will start hashing things out:
-progressive left
-center left
-center right
-populist right
Today there is a lot of action in Ohio (Nina Turner v. Shontel Brown; JD Vance v establishment). The Dr. Oz primary in PA on May 17. The Herschel Walker primary is May 24. The Sarah Palin congressional primry is June 11. Lisa Murkowski might go down to Trump-backed candidate on August 16.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-13-most-important-republican-senate-primaries-to-watch/
Including abortion.
Crushed,
All of the markets are still overvalued.
How much ?
I’m guessing this much.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/AFUwvRtr7pyyL6Sb9
Lib – re: Civil War..
It is even as polarizing as George Floyd? The polling for Floyd was much higher like 80-90% against police police brutality etc. Thousands of protests, cities burned, deaths and distrution arrests and prosecution etc.
That does not seem to be the case historically for abortion, and I am not so sure it will be this time either.
Will there be rallies, marchers, protests. Sure. Will cities burn, people get shot and die and thousands arrested? I am not so sure.
Here is the Gallup Polling going back to 1975 on it, it has moved but has it moved that far?
https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx
Crushed,
I have to ask what the R fascination with Catholics on court? Having been raised, it is absolutely outlawed and most restrictive view..it placates large sections of this highly Catholic county with lovely Irish and Italian named so it is purely a win from voting base. Crazy LDS state love it too but people would be weirder about LDS on court. Over/under on how many abortions Trump lovers had? Let’s start at 7.
It’s one of those unique issues where poles are not accurate because people are afraid to admit their true positions. And yes, I have some personal bias, but I have a feeling I am far from alone on this one. It’s one thing to answer a survey. It’s another to find yourself in a position of being forced to raise an unwanted child. I’m sure even some of the wonkiest Republicans here have accompanied a girlfriend/partner at some time to have one performed.
Ultimately for me though, it’s not an issue of privacy at all. It’s about separation of church and state. And the Catholic thing? That is not an issue to me at all. It’s when someone pushed their religious views on me that I go ballistic. To each their own.
Polls, not Poles. Sorry my Polish friends.
Ha!
And those buying ibonds? Your yield might go higher based on this Roe V. Wade decision.
Guess the govt realizes that population growth is in trouble and acting on it.
Juice. Cities don’t usually burn over marches and protests.
Think Vietnam War protests vs. Civil Rights protests.
I don’t blame the blacks for burning down their cities. Though it worked against them, I can understand that level of frustration from their leaders constantly being assassinated and the systemic racism in law enforcement constantly rearing its ugly head.
If you look at the Newark riots and the impetus for them, I am not surprised at all that this occurred. The pro choice crowd will be more about massive numbers and not massive anger. But who knows what will really happen?
Catholics and abortion . . .
Before googling it, I suspected that the states in the USA with the highest percentage of catholics were all or mostly in the northeast, because in the northeast, there is a high proportion of Irish, Italians and Hispanics (compared to the US midwestern heartland). The northeast will remain a place with legal abortion.
And, I googled it and here are the highest proportion of Catholics states in the US, according to wikipedia:
(1) Rhode Island (42%)
(2) MA (34%)
(3) NJ (34%)
(4) NM
(5) CT
(6) NY
(7) CA
(8) IL
(9) NH
(10) Louisiana
Certainly, there are some proportion of Catholics who are 100% against abortion and feel strongly about it – they vote, picket and speak out about it. But, I’d personally wager that a higher proportion of people who were raised Catholic or have a Catholic background are either realistically today atheist, agnostic, attend Church only on Christmas and EAster, and are otherwise living their lives in such a way that they don’t think much about religion and probably go days or weeks without ever thinking “I am a catholic.”
I don’t see much of a through-line between catholicism and the abortion issue. If anything, I’d see it more with respect to Evangelicals and Mormons. By and large, religious background is more important to Evangelicals and Mormons than Catholics or Mainline Protestants.
Juice,
OMG now claiming that the largest religious group in this country is a minority…wow. I will be nice too..at any point there are.probably 100s of qualified people for SCOTUS across all religions. If Dems promoted people raises Muslim for 35 years, would Faux News say anything? Prove me wrong. R have been packing the courts on this single issue to get votes..own it. The rest is secondary.
Lib – Fact is many many cities in the 1960s did burn over civil rights protests. Easy lookup the race riots of the 1960s…
Although many Vietnam protests in the 60s and 70s run by the Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) were non violent, they also had a far left wing called the Weather Underground. They bombed 25 bombings government buildings including the US Senate, the NYPD, the Pentagon and were declared domestic terrorists.
One of them just died… Here is a quick write up, they were extremely violent and wanted to overturn the government and well still do. Some are advisors to BLM. Ex Weather Underground member Susan Rosenberg who is a convicted domestic terrorist and radical left activist for example was running the fundraising for BLM via an umbrella organization called Thousands Currents.
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3473755-what-was-the-weather-underground/
As I said last hurrah for the boomer generation. Up on deck is Ukraine, WWW III, abortion protests and who knows what else will occur while they are still in power.
I am familiar with the Weather Underground. Thanks for the explanation though.
One of myy best friends mom was a Freedom Rider. It’s cool seeing her picture in the MLK museum in Memphis. Jews have a proud history of non-violent protest. Especially in support of the blacks.
And no, I don’t see a civil war coming, though the narrative will be suggested by the right.
Bystander – Better check your numbers….Where are you pulling that from? 46% identify as Protestant followed by the second largest group 22% as unaffiliated. The catholic share is around 21% and is not growing.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/
As was pointed out in the many confirmation hearings there is no religious test, nor should there be one.
WW3? I really wonder, if Russia used a tactical nuke then left America to decide the end of the world would it?
Now I understand even a tactical nuke is a big deal, it’s not like full blown nuclear war.
So would America end everything to spite Russia.
Yeah, it probably would. Pride would finish it off.
Lib,
Civil war- yeah some of America is very polarized. But nothing motivates an American more than cold hard cash.
I work in an industry full of women complaining about work conditions, money, etc.
What they won’t do is organize or sacrifice. Instead they step up and cover the holes, work more hours, travel- they chew every carrot they can get their hands on-complaining, yet pocketing all the overtime they can get, never willing to fight for something they want if cash is dangling in their faces-money wins every time.
It seems like plenty are pro-principal as long as there is no cash payoff.
I don’t see a civil war either with all of this money floating around. Just more random violence as those that aren’t winning in this game go after what they can take illegally.
I don’t see anyone uses nukes in war ever again. It’s instant suicide.
Remember, we got away with using them over Japan since we new Japan didn’t have them.
Instant suicide for whom?
Everyone? Or just Russia?
I guess you are saying that America would then commit suicide by launching a full scale attack.
Personally I would think that would be a really dumb move on America’s part since it would insure it’s own destruction. Or is America so full of itself that it thinks it could prevent it?
If I were Pres I most certainly wouldn’t end all of the life on the planet over a tactical nuke in Ukraine. But then again I’m not the Pres.
Roe V. Wade decision:
Best thing about it is that it leaked. Government should be as transparent as it can unless it’s about national security type things.
Police should turn over all evidence. Not restrict body cam footage, etc.
Why hide or restrict evidence if justice is what you are after? Always seemed to me that you need all of the data in order to get to a just conclusion. Unless that is not really what you are after in the first place..
No one’s opening America’s ICBM silos over a tactical nuke in Ukriane.
“Overturning Roe is another fracture in the union. How many more before the union cracks?”
Care to re-visit my peaceful Red-Blue dissolution of the Union?
Re: the leak……Abortion, religion, etc is just not that big an issue for me. The crazies on both sides will come out, for sure. No problem, puts me in my favorite position which is muting the TV while playing some live concerts through my audio.
I’m of two minds on the presumed opinion….the original ruling was terrible not in any humanitarian/religious sense but that it took resolution of a hot social topic out of the legislatures, electorates, and States and put national application of same in the hands of nine non-elected officials.
Doing so set up the culture ‘wars’ of the last 50 years.
As a strict constructionist I don’t support overturning Roe now. Precedent, even bad precedent, is still precedent. Overturning it now sets a whole new chaos in motion of having nine different elected officials overrule the prior set of nine non-elected officials…and the band will play on…not good.
If Roe is to be overturned the best solution is what should have happened in the first place. Put it back to the States. Had this occurred 50 years ago it is highly likely nearly half the Union would have abortion rights as envisioned under Roe with more having abortion with some tighter State restriction.
It didn’t happen when it should have so if Roe is to be overturned let it happen now. The entire mess of the massive amounts of pointless energy expended on this topic over half a century can be directed more productively elsewhere. At least a dozen States (plus or minus) can literally legalize it tomorrow. The rest – opponents and proponents alike – can do what is envisaged in our representative democracy….convince and change the minds of your fellow citizens to support your position in the numbers required to effect a change in law.
Did someone on the LEFT leak it so the D’s could turn the tanker away from the iceberg that was sitting in November 2022 (I’m sure D donations are huge today)?
Did someone on the RIGHT leak it so that it’s shocking effect wears off a bit in the seven months left before November 2022 (rather than this dropping on July 1, 2022)?
Here’s an old quote from Ayn Rand in response to a 1968 papal cyclical about abortion and more:
“Never mind the vicious nonsense of claiming that an embryo has a “right to life.” A piece of protoplasm has no rights—and no life in the human sense of the term. One may argue about the later stages of a pregnancy, but the essential issue concerns only the first three months. To equate a potential with an actual, is vicious; to advocate the sacrifice of the latter to the former, is unspeakable. . . . Observe that by ascribing rights to the unborn, i.e., the nonliving, the anti-abortionists obliterate the rights of the living: the right of young people to set the course of their own lives. The task of raising a child is a tremendous, lifelong responsibility, which no one should undertake unwittingly or unwillingly. Procreation is not a duty: human beings are not stock-farm animals. For conscientious persons, an unwanted pregnancy is a disaster; to oppose its termination is to advocate sacrifice, not for the sake of anyone’s benefit, but for the sake of misery qua misery, for the sake of forbidding happiness and fulfillment to living human beings.”
I know there are a lot of conservative/ Orthodox Jews who are against abortion, as well as Mormons, and I am guessing Southern Baptists, Seven Day Adventists, and all those other Evangelical Protestant groups. I am guessing probably many Muslims as well.
I would say many Catholics are against it, but many others are ambivalent, or actually OK with abortion. Many Catholics in this country are going the same way mainstream Protestants have been going for decades, as in not all that religious one way or the other. Catholics make up the single largest religious group at 22 percent, but they are certainly not the majority. Protestants in all the various flavors are still the largest.
Me personally, I am against abortion except in cases of health of Mother, rape , or incest. My opponents comes not from being Catholic, but from the fact I believe it is the taking of innocent human life. That being said, it is none of my business if others wish to get an abortion whatever the reasons. I think many Catholics as well as non Catholics feel the same way. With birth control being cheap and readily available, I don’t know why abortions are not rare, but again none of my business. The fact that the SC is throwing this bomb into this environment is an issue as they could have just left it alone.
“Jews have a proud history of non-violent protest. Especially in support of the blacks.”
Hmmmm…I always wondered where the strong support of the Tribe amongst this demographic originated……
(/s, if needed)
“27 days Pumpkin-free”
Juice,
Protestantism is not religion like Catholicism..it is Lutherans, Baptists, Episcopalians, Seven Day and all kinds of offshoots with own beliefs and rules. Roman Catholics are single biggest religious block following Vatican dictating for centuries.
Pretty much all strict abrahamic religions are going to be fervently pro-life. Roe vs. Wade was not a strong decision to begin with and it is surprising it took this long to overturn it. Basically in practice there is no basis for the decision, barring the wellbeing of the mother there is no basis under the law, if the mother’s wellbeing is at risk then the abortion is no longer an “elective procedure”, it becomes “medically necessary”, one could find a strong legal basis to support this. As an elective procedure there is nothing that prevents federal or state legislation from interfering, the idea that privacy under the 14th amendment enshrines this right is nonsense.
Congress can make the law, the dems have the majority, they can use that political capital to ensure access to abortions. So can the states, I’m not certain why this is such a hot button issue. It’s pretty straight forward the blue states will continue as is and the red states will make it largely illegal based on what their voters want. Both sides are absolutely wacko, the left is so pro-abortion and late abortion it is horrifying and the right it so indignant about banning it outright.
This is why you do not rely on the courts to legislate, unless it is written law it is not permanent. As far as I’m concerned the dems took power in the past they need to get this stuff into written law, the same is true of same $ex marriage. I’m all for it but an argument could be made for overturning those rulings, don’t rely on the court, pass legislation, do your damn job.
9:30 really? Because it actually takes money to win a war.
Something the red states don’t have. They’ve always had cannon fodder tho.
Many people oppose abortion until they don’t. Making abortion illegal much of the time changes the distribution channels. Those with money obviously go to their local hospital and get a D&C. Those without money go to the back alley.
Most frustrating and you all know this is when those who beat the drums loudest as pro-life actual encounter an unwanted pregnancy reverse course in a few milliseconds.
BTW, this guy was part of the congressional coalition for life:
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2017-10-04/pro-life-rep-tim-murphy-pressured-mistress-to-get-abortion
So if it gets completely banned, how would any of you feel if your spouse or daughter was impregnated anciently by a loved one or not accidentally by some random male acting in a very evil way and their was no abortion option. It’s easy to intellectualize until it is no longer theoretical.
PS – how many justices said in their hearings that Roe was settled law and if Roe goes down, what’s next and don’t think there won’t be a next. Unstable judiciaries are a very not good thing.
Leftwing,
I’m not sure this is still the case, but Jews gave more to the NAACP (less than 2% of the US population) than any other group including blacks themselves for decades.
“Congress can make the law, the dems have the majority,”
No, just like with OCare it was 40 republicans and Joe Lieberman blocking the 60 votes for Cloture.
https://twitter.com/pdmcleod/status/1521518683243352064
Paul McLeod @pdmcleod
Big: Senator Joe Manchin just indicated he would not blow up the filibuster to codify Roe, saying he believes the filibuster is a check on power that preserves abortion rights. Without Manchin, the chance of passing Roe into law is pretty much zero.
Congratulations. Repubs, you own this!
“-a woman seeking an abortion in a state which makes abortions illegal has the right to cross state lines to seek out an abortion”
And given the current breakdown of the states, you have a catchment group of about 73 million women.
Collins and Murkowski clutching their pearls. What a shock!
Bystander – Again, they are individuals not a block, there is more than one kind of catholic just like the many variations of other religions, it is as 3B said you cannot attribute even a majority of them as anti-abortion.
But hey let’s scapegoat them because Congress cannot pass a law. BTW 29% of the US Congress is Catholic, that would be 134 in the house and 24 in the Senate the majority are Democrats. Let’s nail President Biden to the proverbial cross too, the Catholic had decades as a in the Senate and did not get abortion passed into law.
Research again.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/views-about-abortion/
States cannot pass a law saying slavery is legal, they cannot pass laws establishing religion, eliminating press freedom, on the general principle that no government body is established to violate individual rights. Conservatives have been complaining about gun control laws violating such rights, while Democrats generally think the state should have unlimited power to control weapons, to control business, to control whether you can eat without a mask. But not to control abortions. Neither side has clearly and consistently applied legal arguments in favor of individual rights. Dems wanted abortion rights, but beyond their favorite fields of endeavor (like media) they didn’t want to base it on general principles of individual liberty, because then the regulations they wanted would be shot. A long time ago the conservatives talked about economic liberty (though they rarely did anything about it) while at the same time being anti-pornography, anti-substances, and anti-abortion.
Now when either side “wins” it always seems to be state interference in your life that grows, with both sides hoping to implement their slightly different ideals via fascist mechanisms.
Juice,
It does not matter what you or I believe, or beliefs of Sunday Catholic types. The Rs packed the court with the strictest dogma against abortion. Answer one question, if you state Protestants represent biggest block of religion then why have Rs not put one on bench in 35 years? Don’t give me Gorsuch who was raised Catholic and went to Jesuit school whole life. Your argument falls flat..really. This is the test and you are seeing theocratic dogma in our face
I gather real estate prices in Colonia NJ are going to drop.
“Concerned parents of Colonia High students have sent a letter to the school district and Woodbridge Township mayor demanding they offer a remote learning option for their children as an environmental consultant investigates a possible link between the school grounds and a mysterious brain tumor cluster, NJ Advance Media has learned.
The letter, signed by Colonia parents, alumni and Woodbridge Township residents, called on the district to hold public forums to openly discuss the growing health concerns and criticized township officials for not being more transparent about the environmental probe.”
Bystander: Not that it matters, but Protestantism is a religion in that it is not Catholicism. The various denominations are fall under the umbrella of Protestantism. The mainline Protestant denominations are all dying out, and some would say Catholicism is as well. If it was not for the growth of Catholicism in Africa, it would be well into decline. There were two Catholic counties left in Europe, Ireland and Poland. Ireland is a post Catholic country now, and very few people under 60 attend Church there on any kind of regular basis. They are cultural Catholics. From what I understand the young Polish people especially in the urban areas are leaving the church.
Ironically, the Catholic Church has become far more Protestant in many respects over the last 50 years.
I see it as the continuation of the country going to hell in a handbasket because laws are being passed that are not what is best for the country, but what is best for the party and their chances to stay in power.
Quite frankly, I don’t want to hear the peanut gallery of Trump apologists ever make a single mention of the Democrats trying to control their lives. So much for Freedom when women can’t even make decisions as to what to do with their bodies. What’s next? No mastectomies since that cancerous tit could feed a hungry child?
I am not upset at all about the politicized court’s decision. They just saved America from the second coming of the populists. This will not hold. And I’m sure gay marriage is right behind it. Because Republicans are clearly the party that does not want you to be able to even THINK for yourselves. They are becoming the Taliban. I wonder if the burka is in the future?
Let’s face it. All religions besides Islam are shrinking. In America, people are becoming less religious. It’s hard to have faith when your religious leaders behave much like our political leaders. They too have become corrupt with money and power.
Left. You still watching my WRK. Now up over 20% over the S&P from where I told ya. Earnings are on Thursday. Management promised significant margin improvement on their move from plastic to paper. They couldn’t have timed it better against the backlash of oil prices.
Here’s a fun one. I just has one of my workers call me to complain that first shift is hogging all of the work, so much so that it is slowing down our turnaround times and impacting our SLAs. This is the part of Work From Home that Pumps simply doesn’t get. Why is first shift trying to hog all of the work? Because they know they are the group most likely to have to return to the office if there is a return. So in an effort to show how productive they can be from home, they are trying to perform all of the day’s work during their shift. Can you imagine? My second shift lead of 15-years, calling me to complain that the first shift is working too hard? I’m sure this is how it works in the public sector.
Lib, I agree the stats on funding. It’s the ROI I’m noting….
“So if [abortion] gets completely banned…Unstable judiciaries are a very not good thing.”
Slow down….no one with any amount of reason is discussing a complete ban of abortion…overturning Roe simply removes the Federal overlay on the States. There are currently 14 states with Dem legislatures and governors and another 12 with split party gov/legislature…no change happening there to those current statutes.
Of the 23 states with Repub gov and legislature….they can keep their same statutes or tighten as much as they may like and are able…eyeballing these States there are a handful that might, some wouldn’t be able to ban even if they wanted given the political reality on the ground…unless they want to surrender either the governor’s mansion or part of the legislature.
Yes, unstable judiciaries are not a very good thing. Which is why they should avoid creating controversial law….
To my point above the actual document is interesting…haven’t read it all but the recounting of the historical background is interesting on pp 1-6….
https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21835435/scotus-initial-draft.pdf
Bystander – It really should have never gotten this far. Just two months ago on Feb 28th H.R.3755 – Women’s Health Protection Act of 2021 went for a vote in the Senate, it had previously passed the house and a majority of the Catholics serving the house voted for it.
Democrats could not get the votes in the Senate where the majority of Catholics voted for it as well. It was 46 – 48 with three Democratic senators not voting so it died. I don’t have the breakdown by religion, but I don’t think any Catholics crossed the political divide.
The general idea here again is the majority of our elected Catholics are not part of any kind of theocratic dogma and do not take marching order from the Vatican, it is simply ridiculous.
In this Abortion case, now with the leaked Alito opinion the Supreme Court is supposed to be non-political and only rule on laws. You say the Protestants pack it with Catholics. Ok well lets take a look, last I checked a federal abortion law does not exist. But anyway your idea that the Catholics are to blame?
Let’s see here are those Priory of Sion and Opus Dei members the vacitcan has in our Supreme Court? Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett and Alito voted to strike it down.
BUT……those that may vote the other way?
Roberts is a Catholic
Kagan a Jew
Breyer is a Jew
Sotomayor is a Catholic
BUT……those that may vote the other way?
So should we assume there are a block of that the Vatican and the Protestants can count on?
OR perhaps they are really and actually being non-political and non-religious and VOTING on the LAW that was either passed by a Federal or State Legislatures according to the constitution? I am by far an expert on any law but a quick search of History shows the man I mentioned earlier the Former Clerk Larry Hammond. the then 28 year old Supreme Court Clerk from 1973 who is now dead passed away in 2020 was interviewed. “Fetal Viability” was actually his idea that he put forth and was adopted. Perhaps in his excitement he leaked the 1973 decision for that reason as well.
It would be nice to see Congress actually vote and put this one to bed, but I have a feeling many of us will be dead and buried just like clerk Larry before that happens.
“States cannot pass a law…on the general principle that no government body is established to violate individual rights.”
No One, you and I are mostly on the same page but on this one….States cannot pass a law on the matters you note not because of individual rights but because the items you mention are specifically addressed in the Constitution, ie are law.
That’s the difference here. Seriously, read the six page intro in the opinion I posted….
3b,
I am not disagreeing with any of it. If we are becoming less religious as a whole then how did we get to this place? Makes libs cry, by forcing women to have babies. WTF? The hypocrisy is unreal.
Lib, yeah, funny you mention WRK it popped up again on my radar this morning as it has earnings this week.
I exited it too early, but with gains that exceeded my time/risk parameters in this market…I’m still keeping a low profile with my go-to trades, both structure and names…
Closed PARA and $VIX this morning, put the first on at market open after earnings and the vol play on Friday…earnings trades and vol trades I can do in my sleep now…not hitting the lotto on PARA but it was four keystrokes to open and put a limit close order on, for that I booked a nice bottle of Harlan cabernet in a few hours….VIX I took 20% on over five days on a position that was about 3% of my portfolio…I did dabble in Z (mentioned a week or so ago I’m drawn to that like a bug to fire)…may exit part of it, I’m up pretty bigly, that one position gains is adding 1+% to that entire portfolio, and they have yet to post earnings which I likely don’t want to hold this position through…
I like WRK a lot…without liquid options series though it makes it hard for me to play in size with confidence in this market….
I see it as the continuation of the country going to hell in a handbasket because laws are being passed that are not what is best for the country, but what is best for the party and their chances to stay in power.
And then you proceeded to talk about Trump and the right exclusively.
So, the SC is telling the states to decide what’s best and this is a bad thing?
Juice,
Should it have passed? Looks like Joe Manchin broke yet again but you can’t compare Congress vermin who have to be reelected and have to give image to constituents vs. SCOTUS who answer to no one other than own mind for decades. Easier to control 6 minds on abortion than 50.
13 rows behind home plate at Citifield for 2 games.
My son found them on Stub Hub for $80 all in each. How do I say no?
LFGM
Go Mets. Our family is headed to the game in Philly on Sunday. Your kid got a better deal. Philly sells better than City. Then again, they price their tickets much better.
Huge RVW protest starting at 6pm in Montclair. Oh what a can of whoop ass Trump just opened.
Nice to see lots of good people rally for “real” freedom. If you are in the area, I would avoid Bloomfield Avenue around 6pm tonight.
“woman asks her friend how did you meet your husband the other woman says I’m a pharmacist he came in to buy condoms asked for XXXXXL . And only after we got married I realized that he stutters”
“Everything has a hidden cost.
The hidden cost of watching TV? Your time.
The hidden cost of fast food? Your health.
The hidden cost of fear? Your wealth.”
“Huge RVW protest starting at 6pm in Montclair. Oh what a can of whoop ass Trump just opened.”
Yeah, lol, because Montclair NJ is the highest and best predictor of political views and outcomes in the US, especially for swing voters.
SMH….
“in a bear market, 50% of the stocks lost 80% value and 80% of the stocks lost 50% value.”
“If you’ve had a tough time in this market, you’re cerainly not alone. Ackman, Wood, Melvin Capital and now Tiger! For even the best in the biz, ignoring the 50/80 Rule can have devastating consequences. As I recently pointed out, my prediction is becoming truer by the day…”
The idea that the Fed can slow growth by raising rates to just 2-3% “is really unlikely. I think they’re going to have to raise interest rates to 4% or 5% to bring inflation down to 2.5% or 3%:” Harvard’s Ken Rogoff
“You have all these economists with 160 IQs that spend their life studying it, can you name me one super-wealthy economist that’s ever made money out of securities? No”
— Warren Buffett
Vice is now telling people on twitter about a horse medication that can induce abortions. We’ve come full circle.
As stupid as those antivaxxers. Shows you how dumb both sides are at the extreme end.
BRT says:
May 3, 2022 at 5:39 pm
Vice is now telling people on twitter about a horse medication that can induce abortions. We’ve come full circle.
Who is Vice? Harris? And no, I didn’t put out the protest in Montclair as a war cry. Just wanted to show how big of an issue this is going to be.
Honestly, I prefer our government to be in a quagmire. This should be the result for the remaining time I am here. I’m happy.
“Just wanted to show how big of an issue this is going to be.”
For liberals identifying with the PRM…and their right wing counterparts…
Few people in my ‘independent’ circle see it as an issue, most common sentiment is “an overturn doesn’t outlaw abortion, just pushes it to the states. so what.”
Agree it has the potential for local effect….Hochul has been looking incredibly vulnerable, this locks her (or some other Dem) in for the governorship….maybe a SI House flip too?
I’m not smart enough to say if the handful of purple opportunities to be flipped in deep blue country is equally offset or not by purple opportunities in deep red flyover country….that’s the real question
Maybe times are different now, but when I ran a bus down to DC in 92, half a million people marched. That was a huge crowd to protest a Pennsy case which might have led to some dissolving of RVW. How much is half a million? Well the Trump January 6th protest had an estimated 10,000 people. This was 500,000. I have a feeling, this time it will be significantly more. When millions assemble, people will listen.
Gottlieb just posted an article.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.04.30.489997v1
This makes sense in my case. I was wondering how I could run through a plume of 100 omicron infected students and not get anything and now all of the sudden get infected. The new strain circulating right now already evades omicron from Dec/Jan. They are showing even previous infection in December may not even be adequate. The article’s abstract ends in stating that using Omicron BA.1 sequence for next booster is likely going to be ineffective. The good news is, it’s still a mild infection.
Away from people s opinion on RVW is anyone concerned with the fact of the leak itself?
LSV Asset Management’s founders were professors.
LGR!!!💪🏻
3b – re: “concerned with the fact of the leak itself?”
Will the FBI even be allowed to send folks to interview and will they talk to everyone including Justices. What are “false statements” under 18 USC Section 1001? Lying about it to the FEDs. Less than 50 or so people a few subpoenas for data and the could easily know.
My opinion is they will never get access.
Juice, BidenGoat, SmallConConservative.
Love you guys. My boys and I are dusting off old orphanage blue prints. Our secret plan was to bring back the orphanages or as we call them – “Party Houses”.
Our sisters now are looking in the archives about what was traditionally done with the orphan little girls, one set of instructions says to sell to Madames, but hooking is legal at this point. Maybe ship those cute little girls to a 3rd world sh!thole. Those sisters need their gambling dough.
Look out world we are back in town.
Lib, obviously neither of us knows….for my part making it through today it’s a non-issue for my circle (which includes more than its fair share of redneck catholics).
Anyone that’s undecided seems to have their mind firmed up in support of the opinion when told (i) it doesn’t make abortion illegal, (ii) it changes no law anywhere currently on the books, and (ii) it is the courts giving the people in each state the ability to decide their own laws.
The mood quickly turns to the mild agitation of “well then what’s the issue?”.
Another good undercut…when Schumer, Warren, etc are all up in arms shrieking in mics note that absolutely nothing will change in their States of NY or MA. It bothers people that they presume to interject themselves if it doesn’t affect their populace…my guess is 2 million people barking all from deep blue states isn’t going to be nearly enough to move the needle. Those votes don’t matter, already bought and paid for.
But, hey, I guess they can all recycle their puzzy hats.
Vance being projected Senate winner in OH. NBC and AP.
Damn it..that was a goal. All good, take it in OT!!
Father Chester you are mistaken, back in town? There is no way no how, information sets you free, and it’s in your pocket all packed into that silly little smartphone. As Libturd has stated only the most PIOUS sects are growing here in America and Europe. There was a moment I read about where even some of the most PIOS living here in NY and NJ, their leaders tried to ban smartphones and the internet. Those PIOS folks who mainly wear black and try not to be out after dark on Fridays did not listen, even them. So there is hope for some enlightenment for all and it does not require reading Voltaire or Adam Smith which are not on the curriculum for many PIOS folks.
My own father BTW comes from a little village of about four hundred people where some of the modern stories of the really evil things happened in the name of the Catholic Church, children who were sexually abused. This information came about in the 1990s. My cousins that live there now don’t go to church regardless if it was renamed, blessed etc. They will however stand in the last row at weddings for a short minute but really want that church to be knocked down. All this happened about 30 + years ago, and thankfully the ones that are really messed up have had therapy, but a few will never full lives.
“is anyone concerned with the fact of the leak itself?”
Focus on the leak not the language, that’s the rights talking point and they came out today in lockstep. They consensus is that the right leaked this, and I have not seen anything to repute that. The main view is that the justices cant back off the opinion here. Without the leak there could have been negotiation on language around the life of the mother or R@pe etc. This ties the justices into this language.This will be a 5/4 as there is no way Roberts is putting his name on this.
The more I look into this the angrier I get. “Alito has now applied this same logic to abortion—but not just abortion—arguing that in the future, courts should defer to state legislatures “even when the laws at issue concern matters of great social significance and moral substance.”
Are you fcuking Kidding me? You call yourself a Constitutionalist and you reach for the Moral Card? He had a whole Trieste in his Confirmation hearing on Stare Decisis and that just went out the window. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkDENDx4M6k
For those on the right. Gary, educate yourself. The rest of you, the right to privacy (what you can do in your home), has skid marks from the bus that just ran over it. Those 2A rights, take a long hard look at those from this context.
The leak would only concern me if the court wasn’t politicized.
As for the Catholic influence. As with anyone, don’t look at the day to day. They are told to be informed voters.
Behind the scenes there is a whole different set of activists. They provide the separation. Here is an interesting article, given todays news?
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-secrets-of-leonard-leo-the-man-behind-trumps-supreme-court-pick
re: “politicized”
Folks history of it all is so interesting… It’s really is so we are gonna forget the crime. It’s always the coverup. Don’t be surprised (if it was not Roberts) if the very court of these nine lawyers convene will not hold itself above the law. Do you really think they will allow the FBI to interview <50 people and gather their data?
Under 18 USC Section 1001, lying to the FBI is a crime with perhaps years in the federal pokey. Well how do we avoid that federal law? No interviews allowed. FBI and DOJ regardless won't get access.
We shall see, investigations were called for. I am sure they will get to the bottom of it!
“so we are gonna forget the crime”
Its seems stupid, but I have to ask it, What Crime? There is nothing on the books for this?
The reality of the demographics of plan participants has not been adequately reflected: The participants of New Jersey’s main public plans have aged considerably since the turn of the 21st century. In 2001, the PERS plan had 2.7 active employees for each beneficiary; by 2019, the worker-to-beneficiary ratio had fallen to just 1.4 workers to 1 beneficiary. The Teachers plan fell from a worker-to-beneficiary ratio of 2.4 workers per beneficiary in 2001 to 1.3 per beneficiary in 2019, while the Police and Fire plan declined from 1.8 workers per beneficiary in 2001 to just 0.9 in 2019, meaning that the Police and Fire plan had more beneficiaries than active participants. A pension with older demographics is less able to handle investment risk and other risks.
New Jersey’s public plans cannot invest their way out of their unfunded liabilities The three main New Jersey public employee retirement plans assumed 8.75 percent annual returns for coming years. However, in the 19 years since then, New Jersey’s pensions received annualized returns of just 5.40 percent. Roughly speaking, a 1 percentage point drop in the investment return/discount rate reduces the funded ratio for a public plan by about 20 percentage points. Given the sensitivity of pension funding health to investment returns, a nearly two-decade period of returns over three percentage points below the assumed rate will have disastrous effects on any defined benefit pension system. Even the record 27% return of the most recent fiscal year does not materially cover 19 years of prior deficits.
As a result, New Jersey’s problem has grown faster than other states: Nationally, unfunded state and local government pension liabilities remained roughly stable at about $1 billion from 1975 through 1999, but accelerated rapidly in the following two decades, reaching $4.0 trillion in 2020. The combined unfunded liabilities of New Jersey public plans have increased significantly as well, from $58 billion in 2000 to $186 billion in 2019. Over the 2001 to 2018 period, New Jersey PERS experienced an even more precipitous decline in its funding health than public plans in other states: PERS began the period with assets equal to 117 percent of plan liabilities; by 2018 it had fallen to only 55 percent funded. The New Jersey Teachers plan declined from 105 percent to only 72 percent funded, and the Police and Fire plan fell from 101 percent to 69 percent funded in the same period.
New Jersey’s pension system costs more than most other states and is more generous than what New Jersey’s private sector employees receive: Most pension cost increases have been borne by New Jersey’s taxpayers. Specifically, the actuarially determined employer contribution rate for New Jersey PERS has increased from less than 1 percent of employee payroll in 2001 to over 25 percent of wages in 2019. Over that same period, the average employee contribution rose from 5.4 percent to 7.7 percent of wages, a significantly smaller increase than in contributions paid by the government/taxpayers.
Today is the day NJ seizes control of your shopping bag availability. Enjoy another loss of personal freedoms, peasants! Enjoy bringing dingy shopping bags into the store with you like the hippies have been. All hail our great helmsman Murphy!
So the leak is Ok based on the subject of the leak and one’s views on the subject. It’s all
subjective. I guess people are not concerned with the integrity and trust issues, and the fact that Americans confidence in yet another government institution is eroding.
Fab- Unauthorized computer access is a crime. Lying to a Federal Official is a crime. Stealing or converting federal government property is a crime.
That is just three crimes. I am sure they will think up more, but as I said the DOJ and FBI won’t be allowed to even enter the building or gather evidence.
The Supreme Court has it’s own police force, their marshal is not part of the U.S. Marshals Service or the Justice Department. They were charged by Roberts with investigating. I am pretty sure they do not have the ability to preform a forensic investigation of their computer networks, smart phones etc and gather computer data or Subpoena it from Apple, Google or the telecom providers etc.
The clerks swear to uphold a code prohibits clerks from disclosing “confidential information received in the course of official duties.” There is also the bar association for the state the clerk may be licensed in etc.
The clerks one year term is over in June. Whomever it is will walk unless the other agencies FBI, DOJ are allowed to investigate.
I think it was Putin. They should bring in the NSA to take a look at their data!
“So the leak is Ok based on the subject of the leak and one’s views on the subject. It’s all subjective.”
C’mon 3b, you’re smart, keep up.
The Arrogance of Modern Liberalism.
Buildings burning, city blocks taken over by militia groups are not ‘riots’, they are protests because the message and messengers were amenable to the Left.
Everyone on here knows if the leak were over an issue of the Left the FBI and DoJ would already be questioning people.
In this political environment? If I’m Roberts I’m not even allowing them to investigate. Lord knows what they may leave behind.
We are in a war. Cultural, but no less a war. Pick your side wisely, or end up the glassy eyed evacuee on the train watching your hometown disappear in the distance.
If they really want to know who the leaker was, it won’t take all that much to find them, just go after the reporters from Politico. Get their phone records and txt messages etc.
I do remember a time when Obama allowed his DOJ to go after the reporters data. Back in 2013, the Justice Department seized the records of phone lines that Associated Press employees personal home and cell phones of reporters and editors, as well as phones that AP used in the press quarters of the House of Representatives.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/us/phone-records-of-journalists-of-the-associated-press-seized-by-us.html
Left: Oh I know, I was being rhetorical. This is where we are now. Forget about ethics, and conduct. Destroy the trust and confidentiality of the court regardless of the decision. as long as it suits my side. That’s where we are now, and those of us in the middle are being squeezed, we are suspect on both sides.
Ex, good post.
The literal definition of a ponzi scheme, supported by numbers with the inner math exposed.
I particularly like the clarity with which they define the ‘government’ contribution as coming from the taxpayers. Apologists for these schemes often offer that ‘they’ have made their contributions but the ‘State’ hasn’t….the funds of the State are the taxes on its citizenry – most of whom are far from having any sort retirement cushion. Why should anyone struggling to have a reasonable retirement pay for these exorbitant retirement benefits of their neighbor?
Here’s one for Phoenix….judges get full pension ($190k now I’m told, up from $160k seven or so years ago) after just ten years of ‘service’. That fool in a robe that rocked your life? He’s laughing all the way to the bank as you come home after a double shift, exhausted, blood just recently washed off, paying your 6.6%……
How about we word it another way. Why should anyone struggling pay for the profits of stock holders and bonuses/exorbitant pay of the private sector? It’s all the same even though you will never acknowledge it. Only reason you blast public employees for their compensation and not the private sector employees….because you are a private sector employee with biased eyes.
“Why should anyone struggling to have a reasonable retirement pay for these exorbitant retirement benefits of their neighbor?”
Left,
For the record, I’ve been arguing the insolvency of the state pensions for the past 20 years. I just took the calculations from the state’s pension sites and did the math. A 5th grader could have showed you that it won’t come close to paying what is promised. And this was based on crazy optimistic actuary numbers. Since the 90’s I’ve been helping my friends who are teachers, save outside of their pensions (usually from their partner’s income).
As to “Everyone on here knows if the leak were over an issue of the Left the FBI and DoJ would already be questioning people.”
This is no different than the Republican’s refusal to look into the January 6th insurrection.
It’s all politics and it all plays into what I said yesterday. The two parties no longer do what is best for the country. They do ONLY what is best for the party. It is past fixing. The public has lost faith in the government and I don’t blame them one iota. It’s all lies, gerrymandering, changing the rules at the last second and straight up immoral behavior. Both parties are guilty. One is no better than the other. And the worst part of this cultural war is that the two extreme positions are moving us backwards in our pursuit of Freedom. The Freedom of which this country was founded upon and which was probably responsible for its incredible success. And why? Because our politicians must get paid!
In other news Ray Dialo says inflation and debt is going to destroy the U.S., and China will continue to rise as we fall.
What have you seen thus far?
Fabius Maximus says:
May 3, 2022 at 10:20 pm
They consensus is that the right leaked this, and I have not seen anything to repute that.
They should get what they are contractually stated to get. How about you work your whole life contributing to a retirement fund and then have it robbed from you?
“Since the 90’s I’ve been helping my friends who are teachers, save outside of their pensions (usually from their partner’s income)”
3b, new source? I thought he’s been saying that for the last year.
Lib, nice to see you clear-eyed….I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment of the current state of US politics. The one rider I would add, as I have always, is that I do see a difference between each Party’s execution of its exercise of power…
The Right will generally look you in the eye and tell you that you don’t matter and to go fuck yourself.
The Left will wrap themselves in platitudes and faux moral superiority, telling you they are your advocates, then plunge the knife deeply in your back.
Otherwise, six of one, half a dozen of another.
3b,
I always try to pay attention to our standard of living. I am not sure why, but I’ve always been a bit infatuated with it. Even as a teenager, I always pondered if I would do as well as my upper middle-incomed parents. Would my home be as nice as theirs. Would I be able to afford to send my kids to sleepaway camp, buy them cars (which my parents did not) or pay for their college (my parents helped freshman year). It’s completely anecdotal and obviously subject to my personal perception and biases, but I think the corner turned for good in my mind, sometime around the turn of the century.
The promise of technology and the service based economy has not materialized for the common man. For the rich few, it has been Godsend. But for the rest of us, we would have been better off maintaining a blue-collar economy. And things seemed to be coming back strong post the tech bubble bursting. But it appears it’s been mostly debt induced, and now it’s time we have to pay it back. Of course, as a share of discretionary income, the rich may lose the most dollar wise, but this will pale in comparison percentage wise, to how it will impact the average American family. Look at that chart I posted yesterday. We are not even a third of the way down to where we need to be for the markets to be valued correctly. And in most cases, we’ll overshoot the low. You and I are some of the gloomiest here, but we have also been around the block a bit longer. My fear is a real depression. We can no longer print our way out of misery. And I think it will happen faster than we could ever have expected it. I hope I am wrong, but the charts are just scary.
They will never find out who leaked it. And even if they do find out. There are never any repercussions for leaks. These are public sector leaders. They are protected class. Be it a Supreme Court Justice or a lowly local cop or teacher. They are all in the same Kabul.
Bullet Fired Into Montclair Resident’s Vehicle, Police Say
The vehicle owner received a video of the shooting taking place, Montclair police said.
That city violence is spreading. Fun times ahead.
This is no different than the Republican’s refusal to look into the January 6th insurrection.
I’d like for them to release the video footage of every camera in the Capitol Building that day. Why do they refuse?
The Right will generally look you in the eye and tell you that you don’t matter and to go fuck yourself.
..except if you Christian anti-abortionist, white supremacist, an active shooter, part of MIC or rich corp looking for tax handout then Rs bendover to protect their “rights” waving American flag while stabbing everyone else in the back.
“Fabius Maximus says…consensus is that the right leaked this, and I have not seen anything to repute that.”
Wow. Fabs and I may actually agree on something (ignoring for the moment his horrible logic starting with an assumption and making the proof one of proving the negative…)
First cut on who is the leaker is answering the question if one of the Supremes were actually involved, directly or indirectly.
If so, leak had to come from the Left. No Justice on the Right would be stupid enough to expose themselves to Politico – an avowed foe of the Right. Recall, justices can be impeached. If you were a Justice on the Right and involved in the leak the grand prize, Powerball winning ticket for Politico is exposing you, not the pending opinion. A Justice on the Right understands this and would not expose themselves…a Justice on the Left would have cover from Politico.
Assuming no Justice was involved in the leak it’s tough to say. First, because by definition the person won’t have the maturity and judgement to necessarily act rationally making any analysis difficult.
When I boil all the scenarios down, absent involvement by a Justice from the Left, I see either an impassioned but misdirected dyed-in-the-wool liberal or any one of a number of parties on the Right.
I vote for the latter as (i) I don’t see a Left Justice being involved, possibly absent Sotomayor who is dumber than a box of rocks and (ii) the Right has more to gain with the leak.
Let the conspiracy theories begin lol.
I see the unhinged are still throwing a fit.
They will find out who did it, but there will be little meaningful repercussions. I’m sure it was calculated. Once they’re purged from their clerkship, they’ll seek refuge in a leftist law firm filing nuisance lawsuits.
And for those living in a bubble, the market is about to get very interesting. Remember what happened the last time this was attempted.
“the Fed is also expected to use the May meeting to announce the start of quantitative tightening, or rolling assets off the central bank’s $9 trillion balance sheet.”
THIS IS HOW BAD THE INFLATION IS.
Last I looked, OIL, which impacts the price of nearly everything, was still stubbornly around $107 a barrel.
How much extra money was unnecessarily injected into our economy?
Enough for NJ to borrow 5 billion and not need it. Enough for real interest rates to climb nearly 2.5% and not have any impact on people’s spending habits. The FED is trying to orchestrate a soft landing. I think it is going to resemble the landing of the Hindenburg.
No one: He has added the inflation piece to it.
“That city [Montclair] violence is spreading. Fun times ahead.”
Fun times indeed. Sorry about the shooting, but more importantly did the hundreds of people interjecting themselves into another State’s citizenry’s affairs by protesting something that literally has zero affect on them personally enjoy their gathering?
“How much extra money was unnecessarily injected into our economy? Enough for NJ to borrow 5 billion and not need it…I think it is going to resemble the landing of the Hindenburg.”
The amount of money injected, especially the final thrust under the guise of covid, was simply incomprehensible….and this statement is coming from someone who has seen more than one private sector Hindenberg occur due to excess liquidity, people falling flaming to Earth and all….
Grim/3b,
Was thinking a little further about Ray Dalio as I have been closer to that mindset than probably anybody here. While Grim says language tech might be next big, the mass resignation is causing firms to invest in employee analytics like never before. Ray’s company Principles is heavily involved in selling software around people analytics – basically profiles of each employee with skills, satisfaction level, leaver risk and confidence scores (how often other co-workers value your assessment). This type of team management software is coming fast. I have seen several firms posing to offer a job but trying to get me to fill in all details that would feed such systems. Black Mirror sh*t is coming.
From Fox, guessing where 3b got this news
“The hedge fund manager also rejected the left-wing “modern monetary theory,” a proposal that the government can spend money infinitely so long as it borrows and prints money in its own currency. ”
Left wing?? hah, OMG..the crap that faux news viewers get fed. How about your right wing Orange Overlord oversaw the largest deficit increase and biggest money printing campaign in history, trying to get re-elected.
“This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money. I hate to tell you. So there’s never a default.” Trump, 2016
” I guess people are not concerned with the integrity and trust issues, and the fact that Americans confidence in yet another government institution is eroding.”
It’s not eroding, it’s completely rotted through, just like an old Camaro. But like your kid that wants one, or wants to believe that this is paradise, you just don’t see it coming.
My eyes are open. It’s the Titanic for middle class people.
The leak
I guess someone ways playing with their Pegasus program.
Cause you know they lie when they say America doesn’t have it.
Black Mirror sh*t is coming.
Bystander,
You are right. It’s not coming, its here. And intensifying rapidly.
Since business is in full control of your government, and not the people, it’s easy to figure out who has the upper hand.
Americans are quite happy turning over their elected officials to the business community-they voted for Trump BECAUSE he was a businessman.
Then later, they freaked out, and voted for some brain dead old guy who eats a bowl of Grape Nuts and prunes for breakfast.
There is no middle ground. Country is running like it’s a Marvel movie with Superheroes and the Ministry of Justice.
One thing that is solid, we like to blow things up in other countries for entertainment.
Bystander,
I look forward to the black mirror. I pride myself on always going the extra mile and smiling while I do it. My employees love me because I love them. My supervisors love me because I make them look better than they make themselves look. I know all of this is very cocky, but it is the absolute truth. This is why I have such issues with service fuckups. Just check it. How hard is that lazy ass? Just smile. How hard is that lazy ass? Just use your blinker. How hard is that lazy ass?
Human Resources is always irked by my desire to hire friends onto my teams. The reasons for not doing so are extremely obvious, so I won’t share them. Well they always go out of their way to ensure that I am not providing any advantages or privileges to my hired friends, to the point where they question my other team members about it. I am so disciplined that I err on the side of caution. You don’t want to be my friend and work with me. Anything that might be misconstrued as a favor will never be granted. I make sure to get this out long before the hire takes place. Human Resources also asks these hires what they think of their supervisor. They always respond with the greatest respect for my supervisory skills. I am a firm believer in giving my reports a ton of autonomy. But I remind them that it’s much easier to hang themselves with a slack rope than a taught one. So why do I hire my friends? I know what I’m getting ahead of time and it’s a really good job. I watch their back and they watch mine. Never lost a friend from it either, and I’ve hired about 7 of them over the last 30 or so years. Though I did have to can two of them (for being lazy for the most part).
Lib: Great analysis as always. And I agree it’s mostly debt induced. I don’t enjoy being gloomy, and it’s more realist than gloomy in my view. Things that appear irrational, usually are, it’s never different this time, only worse in many cases. My concern is for the younger generations, going forward. Tougher for them in many respects than it was for us, and unfortunately many listen to the BS spewed by both sides.
Both parties destroyed this country with their wholesale exporting of our manufacturing base overseas with the BS that China will become a democratic free market society, and we will replace those manufacturing jobs with good high skilled jobs over here. Well, for the most part it did not happen. We have a bunch of geriatrics running the country who are and always have been in it for themselves. Unfortunately, we still have people who think their side is good, and the other side is bad, and those who refuse to commit to either side are suspect by both.
Saw a video earlier, bunch of cops trying to hold the line against a group of angry Karens over Roe vs Wade.
It was funny watching them, one with an M4 backing up cause even though he knew he could light up a whole bunch of them that doing that on social media isn’t a good look.
Thanks for not shooting them officer, from a healthcare worker somewhere that would have had a very busy day trying to help them due to being short staffed, overworked and underpaid.
Pot banging avoided. Hurrah.
Bystander: The article came from Fox, Dialo s comments were on a NY Times podcast, dies that make a difference?
Million or Billion?
Aaah, it’s just monopoly money. Don’t worry kids. It’s all good. You got this. Boomer says “I am happy I won’t be paying it back.”
The combined unfunded liabilities of New Jersey public plans have increased significantly as well, from $58 billion in 2000 to $186 billion in 2019.
3b,
Nope. Does not matter. I doubt many are going to NY times podcast. I know you get the bi-partisanship of debt crisis. It just sucks that again, people will swallow the shite being slung as left only.
“What have you seen thus far?”
I follow lots of smart people. Here is one of the best on SCOTUS.
https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1521369937566224384
Suppose you’re a conservative Justice committed to overruling Roe and Casey. There were five votes for that result at Conference, and Justice Alito circulated a draft opinion memorializing it. Now, dissents are coming, and you’re worried about losing the majority. What do you do?
I think there was about a 1% chance that it was a judge. So let’s not go there. Look for a law clerk, stenographer, heck even a court police officer. But again, it doesn’t change anything.
Libturd says:
May 4, 2022 at 8:46 am
“Both parties are guilty. One is no better than the other.”
The facts don’t support this. You’ll certainly find your share of useless, sociopathic politicians on both sides of the aisle, but even with that, the only examples of good governance that you can find come from the R’s. Whether comparing T’s accomplishments (border security, middle east peace, etc) to the thoroughly disastrous Biden admin, or the rapid decline of DeBlasio’s NYC following the golden age ushered in by Rudy’s crime-crushing policies and Bloomies steady-handed efficiency, the fact is that R’s (and even I’s) govern better than D’s.
I despise JD Vance, personally. He put the story of his mother’s addiction to opiates and heroin out there to the world. To me, I believe he is a climber that would darn near literally throw his grandmother in front of a bus to get ahead.
With that said, big MAGA win in Ohio R Senate primary yesterday (Vance); also MAGA wins in Indiana First Congressional District R primary and OHIO-9th (JR Majewski is a MAGA-man newcomer to polticis, beating two establishment R’s who were in the Ohio state legislature). Establishment R’s win the OH Gov. Primary, with DeWine holding off MAGA candidates that split the vote. Nina Turner going down hard is a loss for Bernie-world, win goes to Shontel Brown (establishment Dem).
“Fab- Unauthorized computer access is a crime. Lying to a Federal Official is a crime. Stealing or converting federal government property is a crime.”
So how about this for a hypothetical. Ginni finds the doc on her home printer after Long Dong had printed it.
You are making some big assumptions on who did what. Have an investigation and find the leak. I have no issue with that. But who leaked is a bit of a moot point. The bigger issue is what was leaked. What was more important? Who Deep Throat was or the Nixons role in Watergate.
Speaking of Bloomie…
Outstanding comments about the importance of charter schools (and his commitment to fund them) in the opening of Bloom Philanthropies Annual Report. The initiative to link charters in the south directly to HBCU’s is very interesting, and I think an outstanding idea that will prove to be very productive. My prediction: the red-state welcome of charters and continuing blue-state protection of the teachers unions will rapidly change the perception that schools are better in places like NJ than in places like Florida.
See Blooms letter here: https://www.bloomberg.org/annualreport/#
Inflation . . .
One good thing that Establishment D’s, Establishment R’s and Populist R’s can agree with Biden on . . . realistically, he did not support the $2T “Human Infrastructure” plan that Machin, allegedly, torpedoed.
I think the Establishment Dem’s didn’t want it. If Bernie or Elizabeth Warren was President, they would have been stumping in WV and AZ and whipping people up against Manchin and Sinema during that whole “show-down.”
Inflation would have been worse if the US Federal Government was pumping that extra river of money into the world.
Do you even comprehend how much this sounds like Pumps?
You are a hopeless troll.
Fabius Maximus says:
May 4, 2022 at 10:37 am
“What have you seen thus far?”
I follow lots of smart people.
What exactly is better about charter schools? Oh right, they don’t have union workers and they are for profit. Cool story.
“My prediction: the red-state welcome of charters and continuing blue-state protection of the teachers unions will rapidly change the perception that schools are better in places like NJ than in places like Florida.”
Dude, it’s “cabal”. That said, I would support sending said group to Afghanistan.
LFGM
Libturd says:
May 4, 2022 at 9:06 am
They are all in the same Kabul.
NY Congressional Re-Districting . . .
A court tossed the NY legislature-created congressional re-districting map. At the link below, is the most-Republican map that could be created out of NY.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/new-york/dunn/
The map I linked would have 15 D seats, 4 toss-ups, 7 R seats.
The map that the NY Legislature had passed but got tossed would have 20 D seats, 2 toss-ups, 4 R seats.
I thought Hillbilly Elegy was a good book and 6 years ago Vance seemed like a thoughtful guy.
But turning into “Trump Republican” makes every such politician dumber and more dishonest.
I wonder if Vance is keeping his Indian bride out of sight to placate the anti-immigratiinists?
I think 10 years ago he was a libertarianish thinker, but the Trumpers hate that. I hear Vance turned Catholic too, to boost his “pro life” prerequisites.
Cookie cutter conservatives like him feel the need to fall into the party line on everything. Selling their soul and ditching independent thought in return for for Trump’s backing.
If he’d been more successful in private equity he probably wouldn’t be running for office.
Shhhh….. the great truth that no one wants to hear…. (pun intended)
No One says:
May 4, 2022 at 11:17 am
If he’d been more successful in private equity he probably wouldn’t be running for office.
That sound you heard earlier was The Ten bouncing off 301.1
Can I blame the spell checker?
I could have written Cobol too. But that’s been dead since I learned it in the 80s.
Pegasus leaked it out.
No One says:
May 4, 2022 at 11:17 am
Don’t be surprised if he and his wife split in the next year or two, she is very bright and well educated. At some point she will tire of his BS and the Neanderthal antics he participates in to keep his membership paid up.
Yes, he is. And you are too, or should I say you super smart friends are.
Fabius Maximus says:
May 4, 2022 at 10:57 am
You are making some big assumptions on who did what.
MAGA (Ian Smith of Atilis Gym) v. Establishment R (Healey) debate tonight in NJ . . .
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/healey-smith-to-debate-tonight-at-8-pm/
Chi – “re: That sound you heard earlier was The Ten bouncing off 301.1”
quantitative tightening coming…
What will that look like?
Pretty Simple they are not going to sell anything.
“According to the minutes of its March meeting, released in early April, the Fed plans to reduce its balance-sheet not by actively making sales, but by letting bonds that have reached the end of their lives mature without buying a new bill or bond to replace them. By July, if all has gone to plan, the Fed’s portfolio will be shrinking by $95bn per month, split between $60bn of Treasuries and $35bn of mortgage-backed bonds. At that pace the Fed’s balance-sheet will shrivel by more than $1trn over the next year. ”
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/01/the-feds-balance-sheet-is-about-to-shrink-wall-street-is-not-ready
That means what for the Treasuries market? Liquidity might be a problem.
Crushed.
Should be the most interesting debate ever. Only real difference between the two, well besides the fact that Smith murdered someone driving drunk, is that one embraces Trump. The other pretty much has all of the same positions.
Only thing is the Republicans have little chance of winning with those two Schulbs. Democrat Andy Kim was reelected and won by 30,000 votes last time about 8 percentage points.
That district the 3rd district, also has been redrawn too staring next year to be very democratic leaning. They removed Ocean County and stretched it north through the Freeholds, Colts Neck, Holmdel towns all the way to Hazlet NJ.
Vance is fine. He’s Senate, would be different if he were House. In six years statistically Trump should be dead and if not in the absolutely ‘best’ (worst) case he’s possible exiting the WH….Vance did what he needed to do, only when he needed to do it, to get the deal done. And realistically with very few real obligations in return. I like it.
Same for the ‘VC’…It was either an extended job interview before Thiel decided this was the guy to back with $10m of his own money for election or it was to get some chits from the future Senator and the face of Rust Belt populism that propelled DJT into the WH….or both.
I’m sensing (hoping?) that activism among legitimate reasoned, libertarian West Coast billionaires is a serious challenge and counterbalance to DJT rearing his ugly head again….
Fab: The bigger issue is the leak going forward. It should not have happened, regardless of one’s viewpoint on the subject.
Bystander: I am not sure of what you are getting at with Dialo, but I agree with what he says.
Anyone selling on the news? I may take a little more off of the table. Just noticed gas prices hit their highest ever today. I guess Powell doesn’t drive.
Libturd says:
May 4, 2022 at 3:30 pm
Anyone selling on the news?
I went heavy in December into gas and oil stocks, I was worried I over did it, but enjoying the day. I don’t see a real end in sight… maybe the end of the war?
War schmoor. My local BP was $4.29 today. Now I don’t pay that of course as I get 6% off with credit card, + another 10 cents per gallon discount with the BP app. But still. My guess is that Powell does not like the look of the falling market, even though it’s the medicine he must swallow.
I took another 10% off the table. Now sitting with 70% of my powder dry across the board. I just took a look at Gators 401K and I’m up 6% on the year before today. That’s incredible.
Took a look at older son’s 529 which I switched to the 2024 target fund back in December. Down 6%.
Libturd says:
May 4, 2022 at 3:59 pm
That’s incredible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFXtb9jBaBM
Loved that show. Holy crap was it popular. It sure beats all of the dancing and singing shows that litter the streams today. Though, we did have Donny and Marie. And the best 1-2 punch in TV history. The Loveboat and Fantasy Island.
The algorithm teed this up…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfTY5xUFaJs
I have certain accounts that are conventionally invested, except the fixed income piece is short-dated and/or full of floaters. Also, with a healthy overweight slug of energy and or natural resources. I got to roughly the same place. Full disclosure, these are not the bulk of my accounts. They were designed to be income oriented and a tick more conservative. I g-d damned wish I had everything there, but it is operationally impossible for me to work that way.
Libturd says:
May 4, 2022 at 3:59 pm
I took another 10% off the table. Now sitting with 70% of my powder dry across the board. I just took a look at Gators 401K and I’m up 6% on the year before today. That’s incredible.
Of course the same here. Shame my million dollar 401K is down 8%. While our 50K 401k is up 6%. Really, this one was mostly dumb luck. Where I really screwed up was putting my stable stuff mostly in a PIMCO bond fund instead of a true stable fund. That was what cost me. Nothing like nailing the timing and then getting killed in bonds.
3b,
Nothing much to add except Dalio is a bit of a Roubini, calling for collapses that never happen. Go back and read comments from 2008 and he thought bond market would collapse. He wants to be a svengali and tell his Principles software as I mentioned. Also a big game hunter a-hole, like many of billionaire dickw&ds.
Also if your son dies tragically and a month later, back hawking analytics software, then I have to wonder about your “Principles”. Imagine it happens in Dec and Feb you are talking like this?
“At the time, it was difficult to process emotionally and intellectually, yet I had to decide what to do to deal with these traumas.”
At the time? It just happened..
Worst bound rout in 40 years…… who was the poster on these threads asking about investing in a fixed income mutual fund? It was always in the cards once we went sub-1% on the Ten….. people don’t understand the implications of bond convexity on returns.
Libturd says:
May 4, 2022 at 4:42 pm
Where I really screwed up was putting my stable stuff mostly in a PIMCO bond fund instead of a true stable fund. That was what cost me. Nothing like nailing the timing and then getting killed in bonds.
Chi,
What is your opinion on eternal bonds paying 4.8 to 5%. I am told by the broker they can be sold anytime and pay an additional 2% if / when called. We don’t really plan on ever needing the money as my wife takes her SS this year which will be about $3800 a month, waited till she turns 70 for the extra 8% per year.( Note I already have some in my IRA…. so be gentle)LOL
Are the CDs safe as advertised? I sold another multi closing in June ( passed all inspections) is it safe to put the proceeds into these CDs? I think I am getting ready to retire. But Still not sure.
Bystander: Oh I agree, on Dialo, but that does not make him wrong. As for as calls being wrong, well when the Fed comes in and manipulates the market, then of course that’s a different story. A lot more crap should have been cleared out after the 2008 collapse, but of course the Fed put a floor under it. We say now where we are today with a that manipulation and the Fed can’t do anything this time in my view. But yet again Powell screws up with his 75 bp hike is off the table comment. Should not have said that in my view, and it turns out his hand is forced than we shall see.
Trudeau was just quoted saying Canada is going to build a wall to keep Americans out and make them pay for it.
Regarding CD’s….. bear in mind we just moved up the overnight rate to 75/100 (i.e., 0.75% to 1.00% range). Powell in his Q&A said they are slated for 50 at the next two meetings (data dependent). That is not a promise. It is a projection on May 4, 2022, that the Fed will move 50 on 6/15 & 7/27. So within 12 weeks we could be at 175/200, and then possibly go higher. Additionally, if you wish to wait, begin to look for high yielding savings accounts. I have to believe that they are quickly going to push north of 1.00%, looking for sticky relationships.
Also bear in mind that the entire rally was caused by the fact that Powell said on 6/15 there is no interest in going 75. Of course, weeks ago he said no interest in going 50 today……..
Jim says:
May 4, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Are the CDs safe as advertised? I sold another multi closing in June ( passed all inspections) is it safe to put the proceeds into these CDs? I think I am getting ready to retire. But Still not sure.
You can’t get blood from a stone. The main question is what is your main goal, and over what time period. These are also called flower bonds, as in you will be pushing up the daisies before they mature.
Jim says:
May 4, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Chi, What is your opinion on eternal bonds paying 4.8 to 5%. I am told by the broker they can be sold anytime and pay an additional 2% if / when called.
Five conservative Supreme Court justices LYING they wouldn’t overturn Roe during their confirmation hearings
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/ui87sl/five_conservative_supreme_court_justices_lying/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
chicagofinance says:
May 4, 2022 at 6:47 pm
Regarding CD’s. First Thank You for responding and giving me advice, it is really appreciated!
I think your advice is to wait a few months for the higher return on CDs , I am all for that I only gamble in the stock market with my IRA , not my real money.
chicagofinance says:
May 4, 2022 at 6:49 pm
The main question is what is your main goal, and over what time period. These are also called flower bonds, as in you will be pushing up the daisies before they mature.
To be honest with you I am hopeful that money will just go to my kids and grandkids, hopefully I will never use it . My only concern is if my wife or me end up in a nursing home we have enough money to pay for our care. My Mom turns 97 in July , has been in assisted living /nursing home almost 4 years and has just about gone through $400,000. My Dad was a WW2 war time vet and I have applied for a surviving spouse pension/ help.
The terminology ” flower bonds” is very clever , 100 years is a long time!
Thanks for your help, Jim You definitely have the respect of everyone on this board , Be safe!
3b,
Dalio knew. The Fed was already making the play. He profited handsomely off of it. He just was wrong on whether it would work long term. I think the coordination of central bank vermin globally, low rates, plus lots of hidden deals from public kept it going. I miss the Ron Paul battles with Bernanke. Classic.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c3364406/user-clip-ron-paul-drills-bernanke
Bystander: Fair enough, and I agree I miss the Ron Paul battles as well with Bernanke.