From CNBC:
Consumer price inflation in May expected to run sizzling hot as energy, food and rent rose
Economists expect inflation in May continued to burn white hot, with energy, food, rent and health-care costs all rising.
According to Dow Jones, economists expect the consumer price index rose 0.7%, up from 0.3% in April. On a year-over-year basis, that would work out to an 8.3% rate, the same pace as April. The CPI report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.
Economists expect to see some cooling in core inflation, meaning the measure with energy and food excluded. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.5% or 5.9% year over year, according to Dow Jones. That compares to 0.6% in April, or 6.2% on a year-over-year basis.
“It’s a very disquieting number. It’s going to re-energize concerns about has inflation peaked,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “I think we peaked. On a quarter basis, it was 8% in Q1.”
Year-over-year inflation reached a high of 8.5% in March.
Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, does not expect oil prices have peaked, and therefore she does not expect inflation has either. She expects headline CPI rose by 8.4% in May.
“That’s what changed our view over the last few weeks. We’ve seen gasoline hit record levels. And naturally what’s prevented the peak from being behind us is what’s coming out of the energy sector,” she said. The national average for gasoline reached $4.97 per gallon Thursday, according to AAA.
The market has been keenly focused on whether inflation has peaked since that will affect how aggressive the Federal Reserve may be with interest rate hikes.
First
From TAP Wayne:
The Army Corps of Engineers Is Looking to Buy Out the Remaining Homes in Wayne’s Hoffman Grove
Mayor Chris Vergano announced that the Township would be purchasing 62 River Road in the Hoffman Grove area of Wayne as part of the continuing effort to buy out flood-prone homes, demolish the houses and return the area back to its natural state.
So far, over 300 homes have been purchased in Wayne through this program using federal funds through FEMA and state funds through the NJ Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) Blue Acres program.
…
Vergano told the council that there are “between 12 and 18 homes” left in Hoffman Grove and that the Army Corps of Engineers has funding to buy out homes in flood-prone areas and “have chosen Hoffman Grove as one of those areas.”
…
The remainder of the Hoffman Grove homeowners were invited to a meeting at Town Hall with representatives of the Army Corps of Engineers and the NJDEP.
…
The Army Corps of Engineers along with the NJDEP have been considering Hoffman Grove for their flood buyout program for more than 20 years. A study entitled: Passaic River Floodway Buyout Study was commissioned and written in 1995. It was updated in 2005 and identified Hoffman Grove as an area of interest for their buyout program. Seventeen years later, the Army Corps is moving forward to finish the job started by FEMA and the Blue Acres program.
They want to buy all the occupied properties left in Hoffman Grove, demolish all structures and, as the Army Corps stated in their study, “Subsequent to demolition and removal activities, the area will be reseeded with native herbaceous vegetation and will be allowed to revert back to a more natural floodplain environment.”
I have no idea how people who need to drive every day are surviving with these gas prices. Couple it with food costs and it’s physically becoming painful. Toss in all other meteoric price increases for everything else, along with supply issues, the cost of plumbers, electricians, lawn guys, etc. and I can’t see how recession is avoided. Add the even bigger drop in consumer stocks and it’s like a kill shot.
We drive three hours a day. Trust me, it’s painful. Between tolls and fuel, we pay over $600 a month to transport D to school. But fear not. If it was coming from the taxpayer, it would cost $4,000 a month (that’s the going rate).
Inflation still accelerating
Ugly CPI 8.6 for the year. Higher than expected. Fed may need to look at full 1 point increases going forward.
Ten 306
Could be an ugly Friday.
Forward curve pricing another 50 in Sept
Inflation at 41 year high, interest rates inevitably going to be raised and I’m even seeing corps announcing job hiring freezes and cutting some head count. Ooofa. Hold on to your hats.
When does the FED announce the next rate adjustment? Is it September or earlier?
High inflation is a downside of strong U.S. growth, fueled in part by low interest rates and government stimulus to counter the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact.
Oops. Hope those checks were worth it (for the 20% who were actually negatively impacted by Covid). Hope lowering the interest rate when they should have been increasing it was worth it.
Rentlord,
You can say thank you.
Nasty futures just swung 2.5% lower on that CPI number.
Off to see the ankle doc to get the readings on my MRI. Praying there will not be surgery necessary. I’m getting around fine now, but still can’t wear shoes with solid backings. Clogmaster Stu.
Fed?
We need to reconsider our position on domestic energy production.
Let’s get real. We are going to tank the economy when we have an obvious off-ramp?
Couldn’t agree more. Worse yet, you can frack cleanly (if necessary) at around $60 a barrel. It’s really a no-brainer. But who wants to filter the water they use in the fracking process when you can just let it seep into the aquafer.
Fast : June 14/15. Back in the day when it was a real market the Fed sometimes announced rate hikes in between meetings. That won’t happen now, too close to the June meeting.
While the Rangers lost last night, and we had the “show” in DC, we had a fantastic night of music. Irish trad, Reggae, Rock. Cajun, Rap, punk, all thrown in together for an incredible night of music!!
Fed meets June, then July, off August
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Housing: A lot of these haughty towns have always been stubborn regarding prices despite economic conditions/rate hikes, etc. They’re insulated to an extent, softening for sure, minimally at most but those with financial muscle fair well through these tough cycles. I comb through Trulia and Zillow every few days to eyeball price and number of listings. West and South of the North East part of the state are growing in listing numbers and I’m starting to see “3” handles on those 3/2 starter type houses instead of a “4” handle.
Btw, rarely do I use the term, ‘homes’ when describing this stuff. Homes are for people that have manicured lawns, clean interiors, tasteful color and decorative schemes. Houses are those with purple walls in one room, yellow walls in the other, starter hoard piles in corners, boxes piled up, etc. You know, muffin top muppet people where you can’t decide if you’re smelling an oil and vinegar sub sandwich or somebody’s body odor when you walk in the front door to view the listing.
I drive 2 hrs per day for work. No way to write it off or WFH.
Oh well.
Our President has said he was “never more optimistic for our country than he is now.”
I’ve got a pair of shoes that are mine I’d like him to take a walk in..
“That must have been a bittersweet moment for the former president. She finally screwed him.”
— Colbert on Ivanka admitting Trump lost in 2020
Hope those checks were worth it (for the 20% who were actually negatively impacted by Covid).
I got 32.oo.
I got a vocal cord polyp from having to wear N95’s for 10+ hours per day- reused ones of course.
I got covid as well. Then (and I am single) was told by my employer I received it outside work- lost 3 weeks of sick pay as they would not allow me to return when I felt fine.
I got sandwiches from Chick-fil-A. Food from Chipotle. The sound of pot banging, and letters from children. That was nice.
No work from home. No time off. Extreme workload.
But at least compared to some of my colleagues-and patients. Got off unscathed pretty much.
Oh- and barely avoided losing my child- ex tried to take her from me due to Covid. A whole court case went on while I was at work-completely unaware. Came out of a surgery, opened my phone, to find my ex filed a claim to take my daughter. My attorney (automatically) fought the battle without me even knowing it. He was so angry at her he didn’t charge me.
Thankfully he won. And the irony- the beech is an “Anti Vaxxer and a medical professional herself. She was forced to get it. Haha.
“Thanks, suburban soccer moms. Next time, listen to your husband.”
Lol. Funniest comment I read yet.
Stu,
Good luck with the ankle. They can be tough.
For the Montclair fans on this site. One just for you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85yuYAZICMQ
Phoenix- Where did you find that attorney?
Berkshire Hathaway has lost all of their gains in 2022. The generals have now been shot but energy is the last to stand. That falls, maybe it’s the bottom.
Just remember, ark was the canary in the coal mine. Helped me exit 401k before the axe came.
7:33 grabbed my first $100 plus tank yrasteday….$6.91 prem gal
Univ Mich Consumer sentiment hits record low, 50.2 from prior month 58.7.
Trump-Gabbard 2024?
Not too bad. 50% tear, but already significantly healed. One to two more months in the boot and I’m healed. No biggie. Next time, I think I’ll shovel the sand and water out of the sandbox rather than flipping it over to empty it out. I can only imagine how much it weighed. It’s 40 x 40 x 12″ and had at least 100 pounds of sand in it which would take it up to 3″ and then about 3″ of water on top. It’s a good SAT volume question. Water weighs .434 per square inch? .434 x 4800 = 50% ruptured tendon. Yes, I flipped it with another person. It did bend.
Is Gabbard religious?
Wasn’t she a big Bernie supporter? Seems like an odd couple.
I am pro-fracking, but I am very skeptical that we can frack our way out of the current oil shortage.
Right now, US oil production is only about 10% off its all time high (which we hit in 2020). Rig counts are up like 25% since the beginning of the year, but it takes close to a year for a new well to be completed.
There are equipment and labor shortages (fracking requires very specialized skills).
There is also the problem of well production decline. Fracked wells have very steep decline curves (most of the oil is produced within the first 2-3 years), so you have to be constantly drilling new wells to maintain production.
Intensive drilling requires lots of financing- and cheap interest rates.
Finally, the dirty little secret of fracking is, despite the fracking boom, it hasn’t been very profitable for investors. Drillers have to reinvest profits in new wells to maintain production, rather than paying dividends.
Back in March, the fed did a survey, asking oil producers why they were restraining production despite high oil prices. The #1 answer (60%) was “investor pressure to maintain capital discipline”. The #2 answer was equipment and labor shortages.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2022/2201.aspx#tab-questions
Trump-Gabbard 2024?
That’s a win! Too bad it would never happen.
DeSantis-Gabbard 2024 – I’ve got a golden ticket!
OC1,
Once again, if we can send 54 billion to the Ukraine. Then we can make financing available for fracking. There is no will.
Libturd,
Sorry to hear about your injury. Glad you can live with the air cast.
I had a calf muscle strain early this year, I think it was mild but I was barely able to heel walk for a couple weeks, and couldn’t get back into sports for 6 weeks. Had that leg thing but decided not to wear it. I was working from home so just stiff-leg-heel walked around my home for the first couple weeks, then I was able to limp on the heel for the next few weeks, and then it was good enough. Main problem was that I was a couch potato for nearly six weeks, gained weight and lost stamina.
Sounds like your injury is more serious than mine was. Hope you have a full and quicker than expected recovery.
Lib: Feel better.
Gabbard is kinda cute for a politician, and some of the things she says are smart, but some of the stuff she says is dumb. I don’t see how being Tucker Carlson’s favorite Democrat works from a political career planning perspective. She’s not a Republican, but Dems don’t like her. Her one big topic is being against foreign wars.
Ten 314
Lib-
Financing is but one issue. Specialized skills are also needed.
If we want to produce significantly more oil than we did in 2020, then we will need significantly more petroleum engineers, geologists, drillers, etc. than we had in 2020.
Training people in those specialty skills takes years.
Chgo: Fed could shock the market and do a full point increase, to show they are finally serious about taming inflation. I don’t expect it, but would not be totally surprised if they did.
“Irish trad, Reggae, Rock. Cajun, Rap, punk, all thrown in together”
3b,
Sounds like you just described The String Cheese Incident. They are pretty awesome. At least were 20 years ago but EDM eventually corrupts every jam band that attempts it. Been listening quite a bit to Buckwheat Zydeco and Professor Longhair. What treasures. RIP.
For Irish Trad, do you like Lunasa? Trad but bass and guitar really drive sound. Otherworld is probably a desert island disc. Just amazing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEsgWTBJK4I
3B,
I would put their chance of the 1% increase (which they should do) at about 1%.
re: “If we want to produce significantly more oil”
There are only 574 functional oil rigs right now, the count increased since last year but it’s not anywhere near an all time high of 1,596 oil rigs in 2014.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertrro_xr0_nus_cm.htm
Ten Year at 3.15
Libturd,
I didn’t take you for a King Crimson fan. That’s my most listened to music group, though I listen to classical more overall. I need to play some Yes afterwards to cheer up.
Arguing with the pumpkin reminds me of their tracks “I Talk to the Wind” and “Twenty First Century Schizoid Man”
I mostly listen to their albums of the 60s and 70s, favoring In the Court of The Crimson King, Larks’ Tongue in Aspic, Lizard, and Starless and Bible Black. But they also have a track from the 90s about financial failures: in their Thrak album, “Coda: Marine 475” (it’s about the losses Lloyds of London names suffered on marine insurance but I think it works for any crashing assets, with an unusual falling note progression)
But the Fed is not serious..noboby in the government is serious..they gaveth money and now will taketh away via inflation. Did not save your big gains or overspent on housing? Not…our ..problem. Right now, the only shoe to drop for depression is job market. They know it and will do everything to avoid rocking hard. From what I can tell, companies have huge demand but simply balking at paying a realistic “today” wage. Now they are turning to third party contract to do dirty work. I have seen jobs from sh*t paying Wells, Citi and BOA which were perm at one time are now coming to me contract via India recruiters. The skills vs pay are laughable. I know people may not value Six Sigma black belt cert but that is no joke to get. It is 16 weeks of pretty heavy content , coursework and project labs. Also, probably 10k in courses to get black belt cert. I don’t have it nor interest. Can you tell me why companies think you can offer 60/hr pay for this type of skill and achievement? It is a joke out there. I must get 100/emails a day from “recruiters” looking for short term contract (but we promise to hire you..really). Go on Dice and put profile up..then wait. Don’t put phone %. The junk pay is astounding, from all over country too.
Prog rock cage match!
NoOne,
In the Court is really all I know, but it is really an amazing album that does not get enough cred. Especially when you consider how popular the Doors got. Never caught on to Yes. To many chromatic scales in their music.
Favorite genre of all time is 50s and 60 soul. The amount of heart that went into the vocals in that era is unmatched. You can hear the pain in it. Also, lots of one-take miraculous rhythm and blues recordings from one hit wonders in that era.
In just a few years, the men behind Texas-based tech giants could be some of the first trillionaires.
A new study by software company Tipalti Approve predicts Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, will reach trillionaire status by 2024. His estimated net worth at the start of the year was $263 billion and it has increased by an average of 129% since 2017, which puts him on track to reach a $1.38 trillion net worth at age 52
https://austonia.com/elon-musk-michael-dell-trillionaire?fs=e&s=cl
This is what I’m talking ’bout.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Sm9n-6hy6M
Juice-
So we are currently at about 1/3 the number of rigs as 2014.
I don’t know what your business is, but how long do you think it would take your company to triple the number of very specialized high skill workers it has (coders, IT, whatever) ?
Keep in mind that remote work is not an option- you can’t drill an oil well from your living room!
And getting the workers is just the first step- then you have to drill the wells.
That’s the issue facing a quick ramp up of US oil production.
The fed has lost control, plain and simple and they need to crash the economy to recover control. Right now we are starting to see the squeeze where high commodities and oil start sapping discretionary spending, demand for discretionary goods fall, inventories mount, prices then drop and the next thing you know they are selling goods for less than the production cost. The eventuality is the failure of companies.
Bystander all of those “jobs” are not real “jobs”. They all put this stuff out there as part of the Visa process. You know the deal, I’m sure you’ve seen the notices in the coffee areas in your office. My wife has had to do it and it’s nuts they already have the candidate in India and they put out a job listing and they try to make it so ridiculous they get no interest.
This is what I’m talking ’bout.
You can not listen to that without nodding your head and smiling.
The songwriting of 60s is still unparalleled. It is pain, love, poetry, hope, fatality all mixed together. Sign of times. Lib, did you watch doc on Muscle Shoals? Unbelievable what a few young men put together and racial cohesion formed. Friendships that endured.
We can disagree on Yes. If I am angry and motivated at work, I put on Heart of Sunrise.
Jcer,
Yep, I bet quite a bit but can’t account for 100 emails a day. My crap IB has real roles open for a year. When we can’t fill perm then waffle with Wipro and vendors who then try to contract out bc they also can’t staff up either. It is all due to unrealistic pay levels vs current inflationary pressures. Some (smaller) adapt and many big corps won’t.
Yes, in the round. The 1st time I saw them was during this tour, 1979 at MSG. The sound quality of this link does no justice as to how rich the sound was and how tight they were. Alan White just passed away recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cS3UFBRljYw
Ahh, King Curtis..nice. Man, gotta dig up Fillmore Live. Think he does whiter shade of pale. Duane Alan was huge fan..think they did Soul Serenade alot and maybe some bootlegs with the King too
Allman not Alan
Bystander: Yes Lunasa is fantastic. I know the Piper who plays with them. The event I went to last night, was one band, and then others from other groups or solos preform with them. They have all experimented with each other’s different musical genres, and they all know each other from the circuit. I don’t know the group you mentioned, but will check them out. I am a big fan of Black 47. They retired a few years ago, after 25 years.
There are so many singles that were released and never made it off black radio in that era that James Brown might have lived in obscurity. I’ve been on a bit of a mission in the last ten years to collect as much of it as I can to spread the gospel.
I don’t begrudge anyone of the music they like. I get the attraction of a Grateful Dead grooving jam as much as I appreciate the transitions in a Stravinsky violin concerto. Though few like both. But anyone you play a Jimmy Smith tune for who has never heard before can’t believe what they’ve been missing.
My Jimmy Smith story as I love him. I saw him at Iridium the year before he passed. He played Back at Chicken Shack which made my musical ife complete at time. He played maybe 45m max but did not care. Funniest part, Johnnie Cochran was there. Jimmy acknowledged him and some 2003-ish Karen screams “he murdered those people”. Jimmy goes “who did? Don’t mess with those white women” then goes right back into playing. Hah..
King Curtis was brilliant.
I watched a movie recently where there was a sort of “Black Woodstock” in Harlem called the Harlem Music Festival which occurred around the same time of the real Woodstock. The music was incredible but for the most part was stored in the basement somewhere until recently. The documentary is worth checking out for the music alone. Check out Little Stevie Wonder on Drums.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aWEbO3bRZZs
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aWEbO3bRZZs
That’s awesome Bystander.
The closest thing I got to a similar story was Wynton Marsalis stealing my Long Island iced tea at Trumpets during a show in the early 90s. He asked me what I ordered and I said an iced tea. He sipped it and said,”White people drink the strangest things.” Then he finished the whole thing. That was like a $20 drink and I was a poor college kid paying my way through.
Before all the woke shit went mainstream, I remember Marsalis in the late 80’s having the reputation of being the most anti-white racists POS out there.
Libturd says:
June 10, 2022 at 1:48 pm
That’s awesome Bystander.
The closest thing I got to a similar story was Wynton Marsalis stealing my Long Island iced tea at Trumpets during a show in the early 90s. He asked me what I ordered and I said an iced tea. He sipped it and said,”White people drink the strangest things.” Then he finished the whole thing. That was like a $20 drink and I was a poor college kid paying my way through.
I took a leal once on a public restroom in chicago next to Bo Diddley.
We talked. He was very very nice.
leal – adj 0 Scottish. loyal and honest.
The pup ken take a leal liken’ to its master, aye.
People shopping for houses this weekend are going to do a double take when they are told the new mortgage rate…… the entire curve is moving and getting flatter. There is no place to go. People saying otherwise are being duped or are lying…..
Chgo: Article in WSJ today, re: Even big money buyers taking a step back from housing . The frenzy is over.
You have to understand that the only thing that will stop are the sales. You are not going to see crashing prices when inflation is going off. The only way you get crashing prices is in a deflationary environment with high unemployment.
3b says:
June 10, 2022 at 2:47 pm
Chgo: Article in WSJ today, re: Even big money buyers taking a step back from housing . The frenzy is over.
Went out to eat last night after the graduation to a place that what I would say served pub food, haven’t been there in some time and it recently had a name change. On the special list there was a $95 steak, then looked at the regular menu and the steaks ranged from $48 to $55. I usually order a sandwich or burger out so had no plans on order one. Just wondering who would order a $50+ steak from a place like that.
I really hope that oil crashes soon. It’s the biggest driver of inflation right now and is unsustainable. My current 3 year contract being offered is a joke. 1% raise for each of the next 3 years….if inflation keeps up (I don’t think it does) I will lose almost a quarter of my buying power over 3 years. Lovely. This job will officially be dead if that happens.
Teaching profession’s “golden years” were in the 90s and early 2000s. Ever since then, it has been getting destroyed. That’s why you guys all hate teachers….you are older. You only know the golden age of teachers. You don’t know the new crop of teachers that have to pay into their pension and healthcare with almost the same pay as those teachers in the 90s/early 2000s. Inflation is putting a gun to this job’s head. One shot, one kill…see you on the other side.
WASHINGTON—The Internal Revenue Service raised the mileage rate used for calculating business tax deductions for vehicle use, making a rare midyear change in response to increasing gasoline prices.
The new rate for the final six months of 2022 will be 62.5 cents a mile, up from 58.5 cents a mile, which itself was a 2.5 cent increase from 2021.
The IRS had set the 2022 rates in December 2021 and typically doesn’t change the rates during the year. But gasoline prices have increased steadily since then, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting the IRS to make the first midyear adjustment since 2011.
I’m sure the populists here saw this story.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/truth-social-bans-users-discuss-184946068.html
So Trick, how did your wife order the steak?
I live by the River Palm in Edgewater, so I pass it daily on my way to TJ’s or the park or whatever. That place is never not packed. Steaks, steaks, steaks, errryyyybody! Steaks, steaks…well you get the point.
What I’m after is well prepped lamb. Friend’s wife made pickled pear, or is it prickly pear?
The Fed has lost control, plain and simple. Rates will cut that 20 plus percent price gain in a year in housing prices down. Party is over.
Lib :) I did get a nice brisket sandwich.
Very good.
3B.
I couldn’t agree more. Ugliness ahead.
So deflation is coming?
3b says:
June 10, 2022 at 3:59 pm
The Fed has lost control, plain and simple. Rates will cut that 20 plus percent price gain in a year in housing prices down. Party is over.
Fed Funds traders now see a 21 percent chance of a .75 point increase next week, up from 3.6 percent on Thursday. This in response to todays “ catastrophic “ inflation number.
seriously? Fuck!
3b says:
June 10, 2022 at 4:27 pm
Fed Funds traders now see a 21 percent chance of a .75 point increase next week, up from 3.6 percent on Thursday. This in response to todays “ catastrophic “ inflation number.
Wow, River Palm. Bringing me back to Weehawken days. I enjoyed Le Jardin too but been 20 years. Is Rusty Kales still around? Actually made a decent burger.
Glad to bring you back.
Le Jardin is gone as of 2019 or so and it is now De Novo. New owners. New American fare, has that nice view of the river with bar and patio. They cut out the trees north of Le Jardin and made that into a parking lot to house all the leased cars they valet. Their valet operation causes traffic on River Road as it’s a single lane choke point. If you are a pleb and up, De Novo is the place to be seen.
River Palm…steady stream of tanned boomers, trophy wives, and business managers. The outdoor tents were busy during covid, they never stopped steaking.
Rusty Kales is now Dino’s bar and grill. It is empty af every single time I drive by. Itt has a large outdoor section and looks really inviting. Been wanting to grab burger and brew there for a while now. Others say the burger is good as well, though I’m sure they went through four cooks and three suppliers since.
The massive Sojo Spa is a major draw for New Yorkers.
Whoever is providing valet services to business on river road – including Brownstone Pancake House – is doing well.
Chgo: Yep. Might as well rip the band aid off and do a full point.
I just want to make it clear on this blog…if housing falls 20% we are in a DEFLATIONARY environment. So with inflation at 8.6%, it’s a pipe dream to expect falling prices unless we are heading for a major depression.
I just don’t see how the FED would not jump in to prevent that. If you think inflation is hard to stop, it has nothing on a deflationary spiral. It will destroy the economy as people are afraid to make a purchase if the price is falling. Aka negative economic growth as everyone turns to cash.
Do you really see this happening? If you are calling for a major drop in housing, understand what comes with it.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 24, 2022 at 7:03 pm
Inflation is declining big time. Look at the yearly inflation number and then the current trajectory.
OOOPS, Now you know why you are called village idiot.
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 10, 2022 at 4:06 pm
So deflation is coming?
Not yet, try again…..
Jim,
Well, that was before oil went on a run again you miserable cranky man. It’s not my fault the oil market is run by a cartel and manipulating the chit out of the oil market right now. China shuts down and the price goes up? Yea, okay…
Jim: The last 20 percent increase in house prices in a year as you know, was unprecedented and insane. A 20 percent decline is certainly not deflationary, it’s smashing the insane bubble created by the Fed.
I’m simply pointing out that it’s almost impossible to have falling home prices in an inflationary environment, and what do you do? Throw a punch.
3b,
Just please at least try to think about the point im trying to hammer in your head.
Yea, we had 20% increase because inflation is coming in at 8.5%. Come on, just try to think instead of always obsessing over a housing crash.
Meanwhile when fate goes in your favor, you’ve made a great call. That being a once in a century pandemic causing massive inflation of suburban NYC real estate.
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 10, 2022 at 5:45 pm
Jim,
Well, that was before oil went on a run again you miserable cranky man. It’s not my fault the oil market is run by a cartel and manipulating the chit out of the oil market right now. China shuts down and the price goes up? Yea, okay…
That’s not being fair, chi. I was correct, the millennial would drive housing as they left the city to raise their family in the suburbs. How can you deny this?
If they weren’t the largest demographic group in our population, I would agree, but the size of the millennial demographic group is too large to ignore. It’s no coincidence they started a buying frenzy when they hit this age.
And even with rising rates…you couldn’t stop their appetite to buy. We had to hit ridiculous mortage rates (for a low rate environment) from where they were to stop them from buying. Like doubled the cost of a mortage in a year, and there are still enough buyers that the market won’t crash. Let that sink in. I called this for years…
2008…there were no buyers. They lowered the standards, zero down loans, and would give a loan to anyone that had a pulse and could sign to keep that market going…:bevause it was based on artificial demand. This market is not based on artificial demand. So much so, they are raising rates and still can’t contain the appetite for housing .
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 10, 2022 at 5:45 pm
Jim,
Well, that was before oil went on a run again you miserable cranky man. It’s not my fault the oil market is run by a cartel and manipulating the chit out of the oil market right now. China shuts down and the price goes up? Yea, okay…
Sorry Pumpy, you made that prediction less than 20 days ago… Look at the dates dimwit. Yet you are a teacher , how sad is that.
So please tell me how this is covid driven demand…
Jim,
Sorry, not wasting my time. I said my two cents, and obviously that’s not good enough for you, or you simply don’t understand what i was saying.
3b says:
June 10, 2022 at 3:59 pm
“The Fed has lost control…”
The Fed has been running an accommodative (inflationary) monetary policy for ~20 years, yet we’ve only had runaway inflation for the past 12-15 months; case in point, the price for regular gas at the Delta gas station in downtown Raritan NJ was $1.99 per gallon on inauguration day 2021 (I know; I filled my tank for less than $30). While the Fed is certainly far from blameless, the runaway inflation that we’re currently experiencing is Joe Biden and the Dems fault! Immediately taking the US out of the energy production game and ceding pricing power to OPEC+Russia, demonstrating incompetence in Afghanistan, giving Vlad both the war chest and lack of concern about US response to feel comfortable enough to start a war in Europe, and running a reckless fiscal policy are the reasons that Ex just paid $100 to fill his car.
This CPI isn’t going to peak till gas peaks. It’s trickling to all other areas of the economy. Did I expect oil to be this high for this long? No…and I don’t think anyone did. And i truly believe the price is being manipulated. How could there be this much demand to support pricing with WFH still happening and china locked down….how could the price be justified. Telling me there is more demand now than in 2018? How?!
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 10, 2022 at 6:13 pm
And even with rising rates…you couldn’t stop their appetite to buy. We had to hit ridiculous mortage rates (for a low rate environment) from where they were to stop them from buying. Like doubled the cost of a mortage in a year, and there are still enough buyers that the market won’t crash. Let that sink in. I called this for years…
Rates have a long way to go yet , your prediction will be shown to be false…. again. I as a boomer have lived through 18% rates, 9% will stop this market in its tracks. People who buy now will be screwed. It is all about the rates, wait and see. Let that sink in , wait until January.
Ever wonder why I sold 3 multis in the last two years? All timing, nothing else.
Agreed…they are controlling the market now. Manipulating the chit out of it. Why? Because f’k turds thought oil was dead and could never come back. Why? Beyond me. You know damn well if opec gets control they manipulate the price every single time till they crash the market with greed.
“ceding pricing power to OPEC+Russia,”
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 10, 2022 at 6:13 pm
And even with rising rates…you couldn’t stop their appetite to buy. We had to hit ridiculous mortgage rates (for a low rate environment) from where they were to stop them from buying. Like doubled the cost of a mortgage in a year, and there are still enough buyers that the market won’t crash. Let that sink in. I called this for years…
Rates have a long way to go yet , your prediction will be shown to be false…. again. I as a boomer have lived through 18% rates, 9% will stop this market in its tracks. People who buy now will be screwed. It is all about the rates, wait and see. Let that sink in , wait until January.
Ever wonder why I sold 3 multis in the last two years? All timing, nothing else.
Jim,
This is a different era. 9% rates would destroy the economy. I can’t see how this economy could handle 9% rates. You see that debt?
The wealthy would be licking their f’ing lips …they wouldn’t have to risk investing their capital to get a high yield. Economy would crash from lack of investment.
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 10, 2022 at 6:48 pm
This is a different era. 9% rates would destroy the economy. I can’t see how this economy could handle 9% rates. You see that debt?
That is exactly what everyone said when rates were 18-19% , I did anything for work because everything dried up. Painted a house in Clifton, 3 stories high , standing on the last rung of the ladder, sometimes I think about that and still get the sweats. You know boomers had it easy.
Fed has been giving away money, and now we are all going to pay the price. If inflation stays high , rates should go higher. Although Powell and Volker and not from the same cloth.
Small: True, but it’s really been the last decade where they went to town as they say in lowering rates. It did not happen over night, and what you note contributed to and accelerated the inflation. How often have we heard it’s different this time, but it’s not, it never is. Powell started to raise rates in 2018, and Trump and the market had a melt down and he reversed. House prices increased over 20 percent in one year, that’s pure and simple a mania.
Fed needs to raise rates by a point over the next 3 meetings and show their seriousness. There will be pain of course, but there is no point in dragging this out, clean out the excess , and get it done.
“In the early part of 2021 people were dying of Covid, schools and restaurants were closed, and it was uncouth to argue that the growth outlook was strong, let alone to talk about inflation. And I think there’s a disinflationary parallel right now when gas is at $5/gallon.”
No doubt, you have experience, so maybe I am wrong. For me, 1970’s population was booming. Disruptive tech was not moving at the pace of today. For those reasons, it was different. Today, understand that deflation is the true enemy. This inflation is an anomaly in an enormous war against deflation right now. Why do you think the FED said “transitory?” I wish I could put into words how i see the economy in my mind…it’s just too complicated for me to put into words. I don’t have the vocabulary to. Laugh if you want, but it’s the truth.
“That is exactly what everyone said when rates were 18-19% ,”
The 70’s had plenty of disruptive tech. The microcomputer (first time we had computers in our homes), cell phones, floppy disks (which were huge), the VCR, the digital camera, the Walkman, video games. You really talk without thinking.
BTW, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yDNGskPG4dfUzUfnXWH2z80k9MszZWDz
Just look at the debt loads…how can that be inflationary. So much capital has to go to paying for it. All that capital is diverted from investing in the growth of the economy. So how can you have 9% rates without destroying the gears of the economy? You are going to have an insane percentage of the capital to servicing debt loads which is deflationary.
3B,
Fed will buy equities long before they rip the bandage off. Have you learned nothing from JJ?
Yea, but it wasn’t disrupting the economy at the levels of today. The apple cell phone alone took out how many products. Deflationary force.
Libturd says:
June 10, 2022 at 7:43 pm
The 70’s had plenty of disruptive tech. The microcomputer (first time we had computers in our homes), cell phones, floppy disks (which were huge), the VCR, the digital camera, the Walkman, video games. You really talk without thinking.
Yes, because you simply don’t understand that the long-term fight is against deflation.
“US government bond yields:
30 year – 3.1%
10 year – 3.0%
5 Year – 3.1%
2 Year – 2.9%
Inflation – 8.6%
I feel like my economics minor in college didn’t cover this one”
https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1535245172203831299?s=21&t=xZDfWRP8S-X5oCKxop9NcA
Wow, someone that gets it.
“If you think oil prices will keep rising, you can make a ton of money buying 2024 oil futures.
The market still thinks high inflation is temporary and will come down without raising interest rates much beyond 3%.”
Some humor after this day of gloom predictions. I needed a laugh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOEID7wGk1k
Lib: Perhaps. But if they have lost control of inflation which many say the Fed has, and it certainly looks that way. The Fed has no choice but to tighten, and hard. This deflation myth is way over blown, and quiet frankly some deflation going forward would be a good thing. It’s cleansing.
Mortgage Broker Lou Barnes: “During the last forty-four years, my days have begun and ended with the mortgage market. Four painful moments stand out. Today makes five.”
Yes. MBS went “no bid” for a while today – and they couldn’t even quote rates.
https://twitter.com/calculatedrisk/status/1535403767574585344?s=21&t=nBU_vgF_fnRSBdmTHbjIKg
BREAKING NEWS:
In a major loss for Trump and his fellow insurrectionists, new data reveals that a whopping 20 million Americans watched the January 6 Committee’s first pubic hearing.
Gas prices topped $5 a gallon nationwide as of Saturday, according to the latest price data from AAA, and the sharp rise in recent months is not showing signs of slowing.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/us-gas-prices-average-hits-5-111621814.html
Not saying I agree with this, but sharing to give you a laugh.
“Deflating a fake economy built on non-productive and excessive liquidity is going to leave an entire generation confused AF – Only Fans, Crypto, Influencers, “Disruptive Startups”
What are all the pretty face, skinny waste and big banks going to fucking do now”
Oopsy. Too much alcohol can cause a very expensive mistake:
A Credit Suisse director has been fired after being filmed attacking waiters at a Korean restaurant because they refused to let him use the bathroom after he stumbled in drunk at 2am. Roman Cambell was fired from his media and information services role at the bank this week after footage of the incident was shared on social media by the restaurant owner’s daughter.
“Have we had the great Remote Work Catfishing story yet, is there like a 12 year old who made middle management at a Fortune 500 company pretending to be their dad”
https://twitter.com/benjysarlin/status/1535378094957248514?s=21&t=kJ9-A-rSyRIQdKXkqIm4EQ
My company hired a robot. Literally an AI made it through the interview process and a couple weeks of work before people were like “… wait a second”
https://twitter.com/emerynlove/status/1535479802823598080?s=21&t=kJ9-A-rSyRIQdKXkqIm4EQ
“I heard about 1 guy who applied and worked like 10 remote jobs all at once. Did the absolute bare minimum and quit them all a few months in when they began to notice. Collected a years worth of income in that short time.”
“I am a recruiter and I have a hiring manager with this fear. He’s very against remote work because he’s convinced they’ll be working other jobs. 🙄”
“If it’s the one I was reading, he said he was making nearly a million a year working like 10 jobs at a time doing hardly a thing for a couple weeks/months until they fired him, because it only took a couple minutes to apply to these remote jobs”
“There was a semi long series of threads on /g/ I was a part of in 2019 that did this but it was 8 people gaming hiring systems and automating something like 29 data entry jobs. Split 6 months of income between 8 people it worked out pretty good.”
This dude was so ahead of the game it’s not funny!! 2013 and outsourced his job!
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-21043693
A security check on a US company has reportedly revealed one of its staff was outsourcing his work to China.
The software developer, in his 40s, is thought to have spent his workdays surfing the web, watching cat videos on YouTube and browsing Reddit and eBay.
He reportedly paid just a fifth of his six-figure salary to a company based in Shenyang to do his job.
Operator Verizon says the scam came to light after the US firm asked it for an audit, suspecting a security breach.
According to Andrew Valentine, of Verizon, the infrastructure company requested the operator’s risk team last year to investigate some anomalous activity on its virtual private network (VPN) logs.
The employee, an “inoffensive and quiet” but talented man versed in several programming languages, “spent less than one fifth of his six-figure salary for a Chinese firm to do his job for him”, Mr Valentine said.
“Authentication was no problem. He physically FedExed his RSA [security] token to China so that the third-party contractor could log-in under his credentials during the workday. It would appear that he was working an average nine-to-five work day,” he added.
“Evidence even suggested he had the same scam going across multiple companies in the area. All told, it looked like he earned several hundred thousand dollars a year, and only had to pay the Chinese consulting firm about $50,000 (£31,270) annually.”
The employee no longer worked at the firm, Mr Valentine said.
Now you know how housing blew up in tech based locations ..
“I heard of tech workers doing 3-4 remote jobs (poorly) and when one fired them they would get another. Worked for about 4-6 months and they made 4x salary during that time”
Have a friend that maintained multiple full time contract positions simultaneously for years.
That outfit he’s wearing should have been enough grounds for termination.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10906931/Credit-Suisse-director-fired-attacking-waiters-Koreatown-restaurant.html
I think Cheney is looking to run in 2024 for President. What do you think and would you consider voting for her?
https://twitter.com/midlifewomanon1/status/1535253569980481536?s=21&t=Qyy1dEZYeJPN0vQM54h9Cg
Off to see Bobby Weir and the Boys !!
Dodgers Stadium
Hoboken Public Library hosts ‘Drag Queen Story Hour’ for young kids:
https://www.nj.com/galleries/X3NRFKA5Q5DL7ANWYQQ5ODPNQ4/
Any questions?
What time?
Hahaha.
“Starbucks may close its bathrooms to the public again”
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/10/business-food/howard-schultz-starbucks-bathrooms/index.html
Woke compassion theory meets reality.
Disgusting. F’ing animals.
“Knocked the cyclist over, beat, and robbed her. Old guy got out of his car to help so they mobbed him and beat him to a pulp.”
“Seeing more and more of this everyday. Everyone’s on edge. Stressing over filling their gas tanks and putting food on the table.
As summer hits I’m sure we’ll see more of this. I’m certainly more aware of my surroundings when I’m out in public.”
https://twitter.com/stealthqe4/status/1535731807492227074?s=21&t=OLrTRsXSnpTsh2wbxpyzIw
$0.44 cents delta on regular gas / between the high and the low on my drive home.
$0.46 if you consider Costco. $5.35 vs $4.89.
That’s nuts.
Tried to see Herbie Hancock at Summerstage yesterday. Absolutely jammed. The line was 3 people deep and I stopped when I could not see end of line beyond Shakespeare statue. Never seen anything like it. I think economy and travel costs are keeping people in place. It was a free event. Been to stage many times and never seen a mob. We gave up and sat outside Rumsey and probably a thousand people did same. It was like everyone looking for something to do. We left 30m into Herbie’s set as too much talking and weed around kids. Still 200 people waiting at least. Guy plays an hour. Why bother at that point?
Hancock is 82 years old! Show a little mercy.
The weed thing sucks. Why not just do edibles? Why fuck it up for others. Selfish.
Chi.
No issue with how long he plays at all. My comment was about sheer amount of people. Several hundred still on line nearly half-way through his set. When you you bail? My god. Almost like they just had nothing better to do and hanging out. Agree on edibles but ship has sailed.