From SI Live:
‘Fear of missing out’: As buyers scramble for a home in ruthless market, is Staten Island in a real estate bubble?
On a quiet street in Great Kills, a faded turquoise cape is slowly falling apart. Its front steps cracked and guarded by caution tape, layers of time-worn roof shingles drooping from its peak, the 1950s-era home is tired and poorly maintained, its driveway thick with weeds. But despite its offensively overgrown yard and uninhabitable interior, the property boldly boasts a “For Sale” sign on the front lawn and is considered a primo slice of Staten Island real estate. The list price? $569,000.
“In need of major renovations. Being sold ‘AS IS,’” the listing for the small and shabby house reads. “Cash only may be needed…come with an open mind.”
The home’s advantages are few: It’s located on a quiet block and offers a three-car driveway. It’s also a completely detached residence situated on a generous 50×100 slab. But given its poor condition and need for a total overhaul, the half-million price tag seems almost unthinkable. Yet it’s not. In Staten Island’s current housing climate, the asking price might even be considered too low. And properties like this one (yes, there are many others just like it) imply that the borough is at the epicenter of a housing bubble. But is it about to burst?
AN ‘UNPRECEDENTED’ HOUSING CYCLE
“In terms of a bubble, no real estate professional wants to comment on whether or not that is a reality,” noted Joe Tirone, founding broker of Compass Realty in Stapleton, who has been actively involved in Staten Island real estate for three decades. “I’ve been through so many different market cycles over the past 30 years, and this one is unprecedented — completely different than any other cycle I’ve ever seen. But if this is indeed a bubble, I don’t think it’s going to burst; instead, the air is going to leak out of it very slowly.”
Futher down the article.
“I had four clients change their mind about a home purchase last month when the new rates raised their monthly payment by about $500”
What happens when it’s $1000 a month more?
First? Really?
Ed,
I don’t know why but you got me thinking about your band name. It came to me. “Big Eye” – a pun on Big Guy.
Having spent significant time in Bullshead visiting my ex’s family, I would sooner live on shores of Tripoli over Staten Island.
By,
All options for band names are on the table.
“CheAto”?
On a quiet street in Great Kills, a faded turquoise cape is slowly falling apart. Its front steps cracked and guarded by caution tape, layers of time-worn roof shingles drooping from its peak, the 1950s-era home is tired and poorly maintained, its driveway thick with weeds.
Toss in that vintage Chesterfield aroma and the illustrious odor of beer and p1ss and they’ll get 10% above asking price for sure.
You got married to a woman raised in Staten Island? The fk were you thinking?
Pelosi was asked what the Dems strategy would be in light of all of these recent SCOTUS decisions. She said, “We’re too busy buying stock options to worry about that right now!”
Though, honestly, wtf is going on down in DC? Trump’s missives are setting us back by centuries in the name of religion. This is not what this country was supposed to be about. Fear not, you can join me in my tropical paradise.
Boomer,
Gator’s from SI too. Not sure when she moved to Marlboro with the other smart SI Jews.
Costa Rica
In Costa Rica, the national motto is “Pura Vida” (pure life). The appeals: a tropical climate; lower cost of living; friendly locals; affordable medical care; vast real estate options; and, of course, its natural beauty for which the country is famous. Costa Rica is also safe and stable, with a progressive government. “For example, LGBTQ same-sex marriage is legal and women’s rights are mandated,” says Kathleen Evans, International Living’s Costa Rica correspondent. There’s also a new digital nomad visa and an updated law to attract retirees that includes perks like a lower threshold for investors and the ability to import two cars and a shipping container of home goods tax-free.
How about for the band name.
Chesterfield & Rheingold
Maybe name the first album, “Cat Piss”
Donny & The Pussy Hats.
A mortgage company in Plano Texas is laying off 420 or so of its 580 employees.
Catsup on the wall for band name
Chesterfield and Rhinegold is an amazing name for an smooth rock inspired indie pop band.
Great names all around!
Our neighborhood is filled with SI escapees.
They add a wierd IZ to everything they say not heard in Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx or Long Island.
Burgers becomes Bergiz
Pavers becomes Paviz
Fill it up regualizz…
Fukinnn dis and Fukinnn dat tooo..
Boomer,
Bayridge, family moved to SI the year before we started dating. I can’t keep away from crazy Italian chicks. Even my wife now is mostly Italian but father moved family from NYC to California when she was 1. She has zero guidette qualities, thank god. Even over-cooks pasta if I don’t remind her.
“Chesterfield and Rhinegold”
Sounds like a duo – Eddie and Ex. Might work if they don’t choke each other between sets.
Tech layoffs ramping in a big way
I think July + August are when things really pick up
https://twitter.com/buccocapital/status/1542509686599012353?s=21&t=jCn6X3vUaTDoqQqM5c4pOw
Our neighborhood is filled with SI escapees.
They add a wierd IZ to everything they say not heard in Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx or Long Island.
Burgers becomes Bergiz
Pavers becomes Paviz
Fill it up regualizz…
Fukinnn dis and Fukinnn dat tooo..
Dafukzamattawityou
Why such a push to attract people? I always question areas that need to offer you something like “no income tax” as means of getting people to come.
“There’s also a new digital nomad visa and an updated law to attract retirees that includes perks like a lower threshold for investors and the ability to import two cars and a shipping container of home goods tax-free.”
Wow, football bombshell. Anyone like USC vs Rutgers?
Reports: USC, UCLA planning to leave Pac-12 for Big Ten
Martin Kulldorff
@MartinKulldorff
·
52m
As a Harvard professor I analyzed vaccine data for two decades and helped develop CDC’s vaccine safety system. It’s illuminating to realize that
@KelleyKga
, a mother with no science degree, understands epidemiological data better than former surgeon general
@JeromeAdamsMD
.
This happens 2 days after my post on how your health authorities are incompetent. Jerome Adams badly embarrassed
Fast
Also
Band names
Chinese drywall
Suzanne researched this
Two big to fail
Priced out forever
“Never a Better Time to Buy”
Another:
“The Deplorables”
Wow. Nat gas down 15% today.
Not the only commod making big moves… Crude down 3.7%, copper -2.7%, silver -2.2%, gasoline -5%.
I like it Ed..even if HRC was prophetic.
Lib,
You ever read anything by Lyn Alden and if so, what do you think of her work?
FWIW, Burry just said he thinks we have a ways to fall, blue collar jobs will remain strong, white collar not so much.
Again, ark was the canary in the coal mine. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. Ark helped me see the light and get out of the market 100% first week of the year. Lesson here: always adapt. I took a small loss and turned into a huge huge win.
“Some of these commodity moves to the downside are mind blowing and likely to create some cross asset vol.
Nat gas down ~40% in 3 weeks!
Copper down over 20% within the month of June.
This is not normal at all.”
The WFH crew going to get a gun to the head and I told them so. Too bad, the f’kers had their head too far up their ass to listen.
“FWIW, Burry just said he thinks we have a ways to fall, blue collar jobs will remain strong, white collar not so much.”
It’s just comical that everyone was beating up ark thinking it was cathie and her chit companies….how that work out.
And the 10yr UST broke it’s steepest uptrend today.
Rates are going to fall as hard as commodities have been…
Juice: driving on Newman Springs Road to the RR crossing. There was a Rumson-ey looking gentleman in his 70’s, dressed for the golf course (shirt/shorts). He was standing on the sidewalk in front of the Planned Parenthood. He whipped it out and started talking a leak. Was slowing down, but I really couldn’t take a second look.
Don’t have an explanation…..
Ah Malibu….
https://www.dirt.com/gallery/showbiz/entertainment-industry/henry-mancini-house-malibu-1203568356/
It’s just comical that everyone was beating up ark thinking it was cathie and her chit companies….how that work out.
Worked out great.
Hamptons bidding war are over.
“The Hamptons Covid-era buying frenzy is a thing of the past. “It’s certainly not gangbusters like it was,” says Paul Brennan, a broker with Douglas Elliman. “Things have slowed down. There’s still lots of activity, but people are not pulling the trigger as quickly as they did a few months ago.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/the-hamptons-covid-era-buying-frenzy-is-officially-over
90 days comment free , I did it!! Take my advice do it, the blog is better and you will feel better too. If I can do it, anyone can. Congrats to Left too.
Conventional wisdom is that the overturning of Roe compels D’s to show up at the polls in 2022 in greater numbers.
However, do people on the Left stay home in 2022 because they are angry about the hapless D response to Roe issues? For example, the D’s never codified it and now Biden won’t back the far-leftist potential responses (abortion clinics on federal lands, etc).
3b says:
July 1, 2022 at 8:26 am
90 days comment free , I did it!! Take my advice do it, the blog is better and you will feel better too. If I can do it, anyone can. Congrats to Left too.
Jim says: Congrads to both of you, Talking to Pumpkinhead is the
equivalent of talking to a rock and more than frustrating. His constant pushing Cathy Wood’s agenda is a joke. She lost billions , then the other day she admits she screwed up with inflation, She missed it innovative my butt. She was around in the 70s when inflation was rampant…. maybe she was stoned, maybe she suffers from dementia?
Congratulations to both of you , it takes strong willpower to ignore our very own Village idiot( pumpkin ‘s own terminology.
Jim: Thank you.
Treasury markets are disconnecting from Fed speak. 3b/jim, rates going to 10%? Asking for a friend.
F’ing mental midgets have the nerve to talk down to me when almost always wrong.
Yes, you know more about the markets than cathie wood. Right.
“maybe she was stoned, maybe she suffers from dementia?”
Yup.
“The good news:
You can make contributions to your 401k/IRA at 20-30% lower prices in the stock market than you could 6 months ago
You can earn 3-4% on your bonds instead of the 1% they paid 2 years ago
You don’t have to listen to ppl brag about how easy it is to get rich”
And if you don’t realize it yet, inflation is over. Fed should start reversing immediately or really destroy the economy.
What a dumb statement when Fed range is well below 2018-2019 range and still below late 2008 range when banking sector collapsed?
Really?
Could have fooled me.
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 1, 2022 at 9:54 am
And if you don’t realize it yet, inflation is over. Fed should start reversing immediately or really destroy the economy.
Jim – you might be right that Cathy was high back then..she is however high on lying now. Tweet from her below which is the definition of lying with statistics. Volker raised rates 10% in a year. Powell raised rates less than 2% in a year, .25 to 1.75 so far.
@CathieDWood
“Volcker doubled the Fed funds from 10% to 20% in less than a year. Powell’s Fed has increased the funds rate 7-fold in the last year and is pointing to another double from here. Its moves already are more draconian than Volcker’s.”
Look at the chart. Powell Draconian? More like compassionate and with tons of lead time projecting what is coming to allow people to exit positions months in advance. Nobody got any warning from Volcker’s Fed. In October of 1979, they raised rates over the weekend 400 basis points from 11-1/2 to 15-1/2%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Astronomical out of control inflation is not off the table. Biden came back from his trip to Europe empty handed on oil, the Europeans still need Russian oil. Prices are going up again. Biden will fly out to Israel on July 13th and then perhaps Saudi Arabia, but was already given a message by Macron which was overheard on an open mic that there is no spare capacity to be had. We need at least 2 million barrels a day added to production on the open oil markets that affect the prices of WTI and Brent.
DOJ – just announced prosecutions of several different NFT and crypto scammers. They are cracking down hard now. Any belief left in Bitcon and NFT garbage should evaporate completely soon.
Place your bets on this inverse ETF.
BITI launched on 6/21
https://www.nyse.com/quote/ARCX:BITI
lol, more draconian than Volker?
BRT: it’s just mind blowing that Woods would say that!! Total cluelessness!!
Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) says he won’t be supporting Trump in 2024… in interview just now with @CBSMornings
“He acted irresponsibly”
Lib – My dad led the great SI migration out to “the country” in 1981. Said it was time to leave SI when “everyone’s last name ended in a vowel”. By middle school half our friends from the tribe at PS 32 had joined us in western Monmouth County.
Just zillowed our old 1300 SF semi attached palace in Great Kills. Zillow claims it’s worth $670k.
jj lives: More men getting vasectomies after ‘triggering’ Roe v. Wade decision: report
I left SI in 1986. My home I grew up in in Eltingville is 890 square feet on a 40x 100 lot and 3 bed, 1 bath supposedly goes for about the same as my 2,000 sq 4 bed 4 bath 65×185 lot here in cedar grove. I went to Ps 55, IS 7 them MFHS for those former islanders.
Chicago,
The truly woke guys should go ahead and castrate themselves to eliminate their toxic masculinity.
Though I’m fine with abortions.
3B, C.Woods is playing a game of misdirection and blame-shifting. Real rates are still negative!
Either it’s something she’s just saying to retain clients, or she’s really an economic illiterate. Though it could be both.
Juice Box says:
July 1, 2022 at 11:10 am
Jim – you might be right that Cathy was high back then..she is however high on lying now. Tweet from her below which is the definition of lying with statistics. Volker raised rates 10% in a year. Powell raised rates less than 2% in a year, .25 to 1.75 so far.
Juice , Thanks for the graph, it absolutely supports my argument. Cathy is dreaming if she thinks that the Fed stops raising rates. The rates were held artificially low much to long, now the piper has to be paid.
.25 to 1.75% is a lot more pain in a short period. Understand this.
As for all the 3bs/jims of the world, you guys are lost. Keep thinking they will raise rates till 2024…i have a bridge to nowhere for sale…interested? Do you guys even pay attention to what is happening in the market…from rates to stocks to commodities, everything is getting killed. Why would they keep raising rates into this? You think companies are going to be raising prices in this environment? GTFOH. Wake up.
“Volker raised rates 10% in a year. Powell raised rates less than 2% in a year, .25 to 1.75 so far.”
🔻The US Mortgage Market (and Housing Market) is on the verge of collapse.
Why? Because ~70% of Mortgages are made by unregulated, “Non Bank” lenders.
Even higher than 2007. Indicating huge systemic risk.
Read into comments for more.
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1542924462852640772?s=21&t=WQEhkSmHM1yzj67IajDNIw
Yea, they’ll keep raising rates in this environment…sure. Deflation is here and you are blind if you can’t see it.
Yea, keep raising rates. F’ing comical.
Yea, this is nothing like volker, it’s way worse.
“LoanDepot’s stock price is currently $1.50/Share. Down 88% over the last 12 Months (I repeat – this is the 4th largest mortgage lender in America).
Not only that – LoanDepot LOST $100M in Q1 2022. I suspect they will also lose money in Q2.”
So it was fine when stock was doubling for two years..that was ‘fun’ ‘dough’ ‘mental’.
You truly are a dufus.
Longer term trend is that it solidifies R control of the Senate if lefty’s quit migrating out of the NE to the southern states and out of California to Texas…or perhaps even move back.
crushednjmillenial says:
July 1, 2022 at 8:48 am
Conventional wisdom is that the overturning of Roe compels D’s to show up at the polls in 2022 in greater numbers.
However, do people on the Left stay home in 2022 because they are angry about the hapless D response to Roe issues? For example, the D’s never codified it and now Biden won’t back the far-leftist potential responses (abortion clinics on federal lands, etc).
Last one out, – please hit the lights…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/sternlicht-s-starwood-looks-to-unload-3-000-homes-for-1-billion#xj4y7vzkg
No one: Then Cathy has some dumb ass clients!!
“Even higher than 2007. Indicating huge systemic risk.”
..but, but they gave them to highest quality borrowers with huge down payments, high FICOs, and highest paying jobs.
3b, yes, very dumb ass clients, you know one of them!
About 4:19pm
The Bloomberg article is spot on our previous chit chat below. The cheap money that made the financial engineering work for Starwood is over. As always what looks like bugs are the features of 0% financial engineered zombies.
Only work for Starwood and others, if cost of short term capital at close to 0% wholesale rate is so low that the profitable spread is gigantic between that cheap capital cost and the declared heavily manipulated earnings from running single houses slumlord business. The business model is to target and nickel and dime less informed and financial sub-prime tenants in very pro-landlord red states. That is why you never saw any of these financially engineered 0% zombies creations work in regulated blue states. If they were upright landlords they could make it work in NJ or other pro-tenant state.
NYC Director says:
June 22, 2022 at 3:10 pm
@3B. Housing party is over.
Individual mortgage underwriting standards have held up pretty well even during the last two years of madness. Have a feeling that its the large institutional residential investors that may be more leveraged than most realize this time.
Many single family properties were purchased as low as 4% cap rates in the last 4-5 years with free Powell funding. It was good business while it lasted. These guys have all quietly stopped buying and this is the primary reason for the recent slight increase in inventory.
I have a super bad feeling there will be several large liquidation Zillow type announcements over the next 24 months.
Not NYC Director says:
June 22, 2022 at 3:38 pm
NYC Director, you might be very, very right.
Taking into account that the actual structure of these large residential investor is optimized for extracting “fees” by their wall street creators and not as a long term investment profit machine.
Would it not be poetically funny, if their failure causes the gigantic housing melt down fire sale that was avoided by Bernanke, Obama and all the other wall street boot lickers when they bailed out wall street. The combination of massive amount of single family houses in mostly deep red states, higher mortgage rates that the Fed can’t do anything about because of inflation, and burn everything down – only white people vote populist republicans in control.
Bystander,
I adjust to whatever fits the current picture. A lot of you are permabears. The sky is always falling in your minds. I made a lot of money on stocks doubling in two years and I was able to walk away with almost all of it.
Why am i pointing that out…I was the only hardcore bull on this blog, and besides Lib, I was the only one that got out of it. If you are so damn bearish, why were you still holding?
Guys like 3b were so bearish the past 10 years, and still didn’t get out of the market when it mattered. So he missed the entire run up over the past 10 years, and then didn’t even get out. He does like not like making money, he only enjoys complaining about the Fed. He cries about the Fed lowering rates and boosting the market, yet doesn’t make a dollar off it. To each and their own.
You guys want to believe the Fed will keep raising rates till there is nothing left of the economy be my guest. I understand that the Fed is at war with deflation and will turn course soon because they will not let deflation happen. Conditions are getting bad and it’s only a matter of time that you should be buying. When that is, impossible to know, but you have to be ready to go from a bear to a bull…it’s coming. Maybe this year, maybe next year, but it’s coming. Sooner than later.
High growth seriously looks like it bottomed, but of course there could be more pain come earnings season. At the end of the day, you can buy right now and build life changing positions even if it drops another 10-30%. Biotech has been absolutely capitulated.
Not Director,
That’s FACTS on the expired business model.
Question: how far up the creek will these…lead us to?
So I’m to believe you sold when you said you sold but you didn’t buy when you said you were buying each month until all of a sudden months go by and you never bought?
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 1, 2022 at 6:04 pm
How far, well who knows?
But 3000 houses, sold in 2 – 1500 houses portfolio with an asking price of $500,000,000 each portfolio or $333,333 per house. That is the asking. How much $$ is Starwood burning a day at present interest rates and how much higher in August after Fed increase?
From the back of my head I remember that 5% is the magic number for ROI on being a residential landlord. It was a horrible business during high interest rates periods. The only thing that kept many tenements up and running was because they were own by doctors, lawyers and small businesses people as tax shelters with the hope of capital gains. The shelters disappeared with the 1986 tax reform but came back with a vengeance with Clinton.
Who is interested in buying?, doubt anyone right now. After Starwood sweats it out or goes into bankruptcy and I can see a vulture fund buying and creating its own Resolution Trust Corporation and selling the portfolio piecemeal and try to get the most of each house. Would not be surprised if even Rent-to-own schemes. But at the end you got 3000 houses that are going to set a new price market value where ever they are located.
And of course this is the first one. Others one like Invitation Homes are coming to a court house near you. Because borrow at 0.5% to get a return of 4% you are a genius. Borrow at 3% to get a 4% return, no bonus for you and redo the resume. One more interest rate increase after the expected July and you are borrowing at 4%+ and losing money.
So I’m to believe you sold when you said you sold but you didn’t buy when you said you were buying each month until all of a sudden months go by and you never bought?
We also spent years on this blog telling him that the return on stocks would outpace gains on real estate and he would have none of it. He likes to pretend he’s been pimping stocks for the past decade.
Fed ain’t done tightening, Powell has been clear, even acknowledging he may overshoot in his effort to kill inflation, but he will keep on tightening, and it gives him cover to pop the housing bubble just like the stock market bubble recently popped . He is not suddenly going to reverse at this point. I think the man has learned his lesson.