From MarketWatch:
‘An increasing squeeze on list prices.’ 3 top economists and real estate pros on the housing markets where home prices will drop the most this year
Buyers in some markets are already getting — or may soon get — some relief in the form of lower home prices, pros say. Already, in the last 4 – 8 weeks, experts have noticed downward price pressure in higher priced markets that were previously robust. (See the lowest mortgage rates you may get now here.) “These were markets where the median sale-to-list price ratio was running well in excess of 5% above list price, and examples include San Francisco, San Jose, Austin, Denver and Seattle,” says Chris Stroud, co-founder and chief of research at HouseCanary, a technology-powered national brokerage that provides residential real estate analytics.
ll of the cities listed above experienced a pretty quick decline in their respective median closing prices during July and August as buyers no longer had to get into bidding wars or make offers above asking to be competitive. “Median closing prices have largely stabilized in these markets for the most part over the last few weeks now that excesses have been worked out of the system,” says Stroud.
The markets with the highest share of price cuts in Realtor.com’s July data are mostly clustered in the Sun Belt and include Las Vegas, Phoenix, Austin, Sacramento, Denver, Portland, Dallas-Fort Worth, Nashville, Tampa and San Diego.
…
Those same markets may see more declines, says Realtor.com’s senior economist George Ratiu. “As we look toward the next few months of rebalancing, we can expect these markets to feel an increasing squeeze on list prices, as seasonal trends take deeper root and buyer traffic waves from summer’s peak.”
For their part, a team of Goldman Sachs strategists said that metro areas in the west are more likely to see a price correction, and that’s “especially true for markets with low levels of housing affordability, such as Seattle, San Diego and Los Angeles.”
…
Markets that saw an especially large influx of out-of-staters — places like Boise, Denver and Salt Lake City — may be more vulnerable to price drops as the shift to remote work is largely complete, says Kate Wood, home expert at NerdWallet. “It’s a double whammy for home sellers as the influx of deep-pocketed out-of-staters dries up and many local residents are now priced out. With home prices remaining high, these markets are still far from buyer-friendly, but sellers probably shouldn’t expect the bidding wars and zero-contingency offers that proliferated over the last two years,” says Wood.
First
second
second
We don’t need no education
We don’t need no thought control
No dark sarcasm in the classroom
Teachers, leave them kids alone
Hey, Teachers, leave them kids alone
House on the corner closed. Well above the sale price from 2011 $450k a whopping 72% increase in just over 10 years..No bidding war from what I can tell it was sold for only 2k above ask.
That is one way to get them to the American Dream Mall.
“MrBeast, one of the most popular YouTubers, opened the first physical location of his MrBeast Burger at American Dream and tens of thousands of people showed up.
The first person in line drove 21 hours from Nebraska. Another group flew in from Denmark. One fan came from Connecticut with a drawing he hoped to get signed.”
https://www.nj.com/news/2022/09/mrbeast-burger-opened-at-american-dream-and-thousands-of-people-showed-up.html
I don’t even know who that is
It bears repeating; went food shopping Sunday and I am just stunned at the prices of food. From processed to source food, doesn’t matter, it’s just mind boggling. And don’t tell me gas at $3.59 per gallon is a bargain. Budgeting in the last year has become more and more of a full time job and I was never one to spend needlessly. I can’t imagine how those with younger kids and marginal income are doing it. I notice that brand names on shelves are primarily stacked but store brands are basically empty.
House prices in the areas listed above always seem to fluctuate and gyrate radically. The tri-state area is a more balanced ebb and flow. It’s always been this way. We’ve mentioned it on this blog since its inception. NY/NJ/CT prices are always aggressive to the upside. I still see houses going within a day or two. It’s posted and under contract in a blink of an eye.
MrBeast does basically stunts with large monetary prizes on YouTube, it pretty professionally produced. For example last year he recreated the entire Squid Game contest and the winner $456,000. The set cost millions to build.
287 million views and very entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e3GPea1Tyg
Sussex County will be an early indicator of what happens in the North Jersey market. In a declining market in our area, they are impacted first. When Bergen County catches a cold, Sussex gets the flu.
Concentric circle theory – Take out a map and draw concentric circles every 5-10 miles starting at Manhattan. The outer rung areas will see the declines first and eventually reach the middle.
Sussex County will be an early indicator of what happens in the North Jersey market.
I haven’t searched in that area for a long while now. I’ll take a look periodically.
Fast
The prices in Asian grocery stores have doubled for snacks and drinks in the last 2 years. Was shocked at how high everything was this weekend.
Beer,
Everything has doubled; food, gas, services, household items, etc. It all has exploded and the FED rate is lagging horribly. I’m surprised metals aren’t going off like a sky rocket. Maybe they will. Nowhere is a bargain or relief to be found.
At a BBQ yesterday, and the chatter was how the market has changed. Two couples regretting they did not list last year. They were waiting to see if prices were going to go higher.
Join Costco and you can forever get a hot dog and soda for $1.50. I hear they are losing money on it, though. Maybe $2.00 someday.
Ah yes the legendary Costco food court. I used to see our CEO and CFO eating there. Both squeaked when they walked around the office building. They and are now living a nice retirement probably searching between the couch cushions this morning for spare change to go to the food court for lunch.
I was at a BBQ birthday party Saturday. 80 adults and kids all catered, swimming, bouncy house ice cream truck etc. Some real estate talk and a few were surprised that the house on the corner only sold for 2k above ask. My neighbor has one foot in Florida already. Flipped his Jupiter Fl condo for a tidy profit in only three years and bought a nice house on a golf course up the road. He painted his place here in NJ and is going to list in the spring. Thinks he can get the Zillow estimate of $900,000….
“I can’t imagine how those with younger kids and marginal income are doing it.”
By lopping off your catalytic converter.
Join Costco and you can forever get a hot dog and soda for $1.50. I hear they are losing money on it, though. Maybe $2.00 someday.
Do they take food stamps?
Went for $30,000 over ask on my block. Went during first open house.
https://bhhsnj.com/listing/NJ/Cedar-Grove-Twp/11-Old-Orchard-Ct-07009/157216628?currency=USD
Chi – from yesterday..Earlier this morning a Holmdel Police officer spotted a gray Porsche SUV that was suspected of being involved in attempted car thefts and burglaries. The officer attempted to stop the Porsche, but the driver took off at high speeds. As the officer pursued the Porsche headed towards the Garden State Parkway, the NJSP and surrounding police departments were notified. During the pursuit the Porsche was traveling at speeds exceeding 90MPH on residential streets throughout the south side of town. Due to the high degree of risk to the community created by this pursuit, and in compliance with the NJ Attorney Generals Vehicular Pursuit Policy, the pursuit was terminated by a police supervisor. The Porsche was last seen traveling northbound on the Garden State Parkway.
Come on guys. You know how it works in these parts. We are always last to the party. This is the case for both the good times and the bad. Always last in line when it comes to economic recovery, employment, housing. But we always are last to see the bubble pricked. Our time will come. Probably 6 months to a year behind the hot, hot, hot locations.
Why do sellers still buy into the myth that an open house is a marketing tool to sell their property? An open house is a real estate agent’s tool for finding buyers. Real buyers are looking at homes daily and will see your house whether there is an open house or not. Neighbors and curiosity seekers will come to the open house only. These neighbors and others are likely to be motivated by an upcoming real estate need that is not yet urgent. The agent has hijacked your home for their selfish needs.
Juice,
We are rapid declining into Mexico. I wonder how long it will be before kidnappings for ransom payments become commonplace.
Even the officers in the USN are corrupt:
Crooked Malaysian contractor ‘Fat Leonard’ – who boasted about bribing US admirals with prostitutes in exchange for secret shipping routes – disappears after cutting off ankle monitor and skipping out on house arrest in San Diego three weeks before his sentencing.
For years Francis bribed ‘scores’ of Navy officers throughout the ranks with prostitutes and luxury goods worth millions
It was all in exchange for securing contracts with his company Glenn Defense Marine Asia, which charged astronomical prices for its services
A little heavy on the clot, eh?
Libturd says:
September 6, 2022 at 9:31 am
Juice,
We are rapid declining into Mexico. I wonder how long it will be before kidnappings for ransom payments become commonplace.
Old,
Yes, this is always the case. And continues to be. Though, I would argue that in the peak, when bidding wars are common, lots of desperate buyers prefer the open house format to cover more ground than waiting for appointments. This was the case for our place. Our more recent open house yielded very little traffic.
Police are now too busy with this:
https://youtu.be/4yz1cvuNHew?t=1060
Downtown Pittsburgh is a bit tragic. Really nice expensive stuff overrun with tons of zombies. Ottavino signed my son’s baseball and took a selfie. Steve Gelbs too. We saw Hernandez, DeGrom, Lindor, Nido, Givens, sports reporters you see on TV.
Lib,
yes, the open house was held in early July, probably right before everyone realized the market was turning.
re: “Neighbors and curiosity seekers will come to the open house only.”
After we moved in I creeped out my realtor more than once lol. He had a pretty good lock on our neighborhood and everyone used him. I used to show up to his open houses and grab a snack if they were being served while I checked out the place and made comments about the lingering smell of Chesterfields, Rheingold and dog and cat ordors. It was always funny to me anyway, he wondered why I laughed so much when I said it…..He never allowed the home owner to be there, not a bad pitch man either, male retired teacher in his 70s..he new what people wanted to hear when home shopping. He has since retired from what I can see online no more listing or open house but is still associated with Coldwell Banker..
“We are rapid declining into Mexico. I wonder how long it will be before kidnappings for ransom payments become commonplace.”
Body of billionaire heiress Eliza Fletcher, 34, is found seven miles from where she was dragged into SUV at 4:30am while out jogging: Suspect is due in court today
No ransom though.
Another house is up for sale 5 house down from mine. I’ve known the renters there since the family moved in around the time mine did. Very nice people, but they were clearly renters by their messy behavior. I am not surprised that the listing is devoid of a single inside photo. I can only imagine how bad that place is inside. The pricing history on the home, which hasn’t sold since ??? is pretty revealing of the peaks and valleys in Montclair and how sever the swings can get in a desirable town. I realloy doubt they get $975. The seller clearly has a history of overpricing and then pulling the home off of the market. The listing also reveals that nothing has been remodeled.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/38-Christopher-St-Montclair-NJ-07042/38686166_zpid
8/28/2022 Listed for sale $975,000 (+103.5%)$416/sqft
Source: GSMLS #3803159 Reporta problem
7/9/2015 Listing removed $2,400
Source: BHHS – NEW JERSEY PROPERTIES Reporta problem
6/23/2015 Price change $2,400 (-4%)
Source: BHHS – NEW JERSEY PROPERTIES Reporta problem
5/31/2015 Listed for rent $2,500 (+16.3%)
Source: BHHS – NEW JERSEY PROPERTIES Reporta problem
7/27/2014 Listing removed $2,150
Source: BHHS Reporta problem
6/19/2014 Listed for rent $2,150
Source: BHHS Reporta problem
8/4/2010 Listing removed $479,000$204/sqft
Source: Weichert Realtors Reporta problem
6/18/2010 Price change $479,000 (-4%)$204/sqft
Source: Weichert Realtors Reporta problem
5/26/2010 Price change $499,000 (-7.4%)$213/sqft
Source: Weichert Realtors Reporta problem
5/20/2010 Listed for sale $539,000 (+115.6%)$230/sqft
Source: Weichert Realtors Reporta problem
11/13/2001 Sold $250,000 (+70.1%)$107/sqft
Source: Public Record Reporta problem
8/14/1996 Sold $147,000
Phoenix
Memphis is an awful place. Worse than Baltimore and Newark. Once we left the waterfront tourist area it looked apocalyptic along the highway.
Omg! I just saw this image of the O’Biden speech for the first time. This is downright frightening! What’s with the blood red, satanic theme and two military figures? Hitleresque is the first thing to come to mind when I saw this.
https://tinyurl.com/5hehjkvn
Phoniex – That guy made the news before on Long Island and perhaps a living suing long island police departments. He now speaks to other police depts about 1st amendment and rights etc. His latest video is of him teaching cops at some town in Oregon..
Cartman….Respect my authoritah!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbebjUYItKw
The burbs in Memphis are pretty solemn. Reminded me a lot of Jackson MS when I was there about seven years ago. Lots of Florida looks like that too. Tiny one level homes always looking just a few years away from condemnation due to lack of maintenance. Many already are fenced or boarder up. Retail even more so. Right HMB?
On the bright side, those conditions seem to breed the greatest musicians if you are into the blues or jazz or soul. Plus, amazing BBQ, since pork is so damn cheap.
Eddie,
It’s a photoshop job. A good one, but still not real.
The truth is, as nice as all of those people are at your Trump rallies, they are much more reminiscent of what took place in the late 20s and early 30s in Germany.
Set your DVR for September 18th for the first part of three of what is a GREAT documentary of America during the Holocaust. The purpose of the documentary is not to parallel the politics which we are seeing in our country today. But the comparisons are too similar for the viewer not to make the connection. I highly recommend you watch it Gary as for everyone here and their families. After a childhood filled with religious and political indoctrination which turned out to be nearly all a pile of maggot infested dung, it’s nice to see the darker, uglier side presented so the same mistakes can be avoided in the future.
Not only is this series supposed to be eye-opening, but it’s supposed to be done in such a way that it is entertaining as well. I’m really looking forward to it. Especially in light of our recent anti-immigration stance.
It’s on PBS.
https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/us-and-the-holocaust/
Which means it’s available OTA.
Lib what photoshop? That is Biden’s political speech at Independence Hall in Philly using US Marines as props.
Here is the video stream on CBS… The bad optics are on whomever they hired to stage this political speech.
https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/video/watch-president-bidens-full-speech-at-independence-hall/#x
Juice, this is how you try to get someone “eliminated.” Really angry police.
https://youtu.be/zSXj3lQSCH0?t=654
I just watched the video on Yo.tube. What photoshop? The dimmed the lights to blood red and had two military figures in the shadows. I was waiting for satanic chants in the background. The message is don’t resist or else. Here’s your fac1sm.
Eddie,
Have to side with you on this one.
America is losing it’s marbles 2 at a time.
The message is don’t resist or else. Here’s your fac1sm.
Same message he is giving to Russia. And China.
And everyone that lives and breathes here.
The world is watching. Question is what is it going to do?
This employee is just trying to save her life one sandwich at a time:
https://bit.ly/3cNV3Ki
Yes election cycle is heating up to a frenzy soon and the nutters on the left are starting to boil over. They now claim the contents of empty folders found at Mar a Largo are now tied to raids in NY and Florida the FBI and did on Russian Oligarch Vekselberg. Trump gave him the documents!!! They say!! TREASON Russia Russia Russia!! They don’t bother to look back and see Vekselberg was sanctioned by Trump Admin way back in 2018 and the FBI had his yacht sized in Spain in April after the war started and last we know has been hiding in Switzerland to avoid arrest.
There is a lady in my complex, middle age. Has a roommate that makes this place affordable for her. Roommate moving, she is looking for an alternate. Mothers with kids looking to split a 2br with her-they are asking her to get rid of her dog, and think half the rent should include heat and hot water when it doesn’t for her.
She can’t find a 1br anywhere near where she works. She isn’t a slouch or a deadbeat.
But she might be homeless soon as she has no family and an old car.
However, freedom isn’t free. We spent billions in Ukraine, now billions given to Taiwan- but nothing to help one of our own in NJ.
Why should she salute the flag? I pay taxes as well, I would prefer my money is spent on her than a Javelin or a HIMARS.
But Q-Tip has decided for me that my money shouldn’t be given to a fellow American, or an American soldier wounded in battle, but to a foreign nation.
All of the earwax on that Q-tip has made him dense, useless, and downright dangerous.
Just wait till he pokes the wrong eardrum.
Hold: Used to do business in Memphis years ago, lots of quiet unassuming wealth down there away from all the poverty. But , I agree, Memphis was miserable, and surreal, so was Jackson MS, all the stereotypes of southern poverty were there, abandoned cars in the front lawn, and appliances, a lot of houses that looked like shacks. As for business entertainment in Memphis, lots of lunches in the day time. Dinners and drinks done right after 5:00, back in the hotel room by 8:00 PM. Even Beale street at the time was dead by 8:00 PM. Interesting enough I have seen the same poverty years ago in the backwoods areas of Vermont; it was jarring. I never would have expected that, it looked like the same poverty, but without the crime element.
For the teachers out there. Think it’s tough here?
Try being an Evangelical Christian teaching at a Catholic School in Ireland and refusing to use the students self identified pronoun “they” instead of “he”.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/teacher-enoch-burke-spent-his-first-night-in-custody-isolated-from-general-prison-population-41960828.html
Rank choice voting is one of the only chances America will have to survive.
Cheetoh-head is not the answer. He, Hillary, Biden, Clinton, Pelosi, McConnell are all worthless and borderline criminals if not outright criminals.
If an independent doesn’t make it in this place is going to be pressure flushed like a Toto.
Lib: That’s not photoshoped. I find it very disturbing.
Juice
That’s what happens when “Karen” is your judge. Right down to the haircut:
https://bit.ly/3D1TGCr
I went to a street festival yesterday. There was a stand selling American flags and other classic American items and also had various books and pamphlets on the Constitution, the Founders, John Birch Society, etc. We stopped to browse and talk to the two women at the stand. A guy steps up, red-faced, points his finger in the face of one of the women and in a raised voice, starts blabbing a whole bunch of crap about freedom and diversity or whatever psychotic shit we was belching. You think I was ready to pounce on the guy? No, my spouse was a micro-second away from ripping the guys head off and this biker dude steps up and calmly tells the guy to move on. The guy moved on. He was one more word away from death as this biker guy would have probably killed him on the spot.
3b – Fact is Biden planned none of it and did not write the speech. No more Rehoboth beach for now, he has made a bunch of campaign stops in Pennsylvania including Pittsburg yesterday. The governorship, three House seats and a US Senate seat are up for grabs in Pennsylvania.
62 days until the election. It will be nothing but campaigning until then. As I said 9.7 Billion being spent, the largest sum ever on an election.
I guess you guys are right on the Photoshop. I trusted a tweet response and only read the transcript of the speech. I sit corrected.
None the less, bad optics yes. Big deal, not really.
Every time I watch Trump speak and he chooses to use nicknames for every single person who hasn’t kissed his ring (no exaggeration), I get the same uneasy feeling from the bad optics. It’s not so much that Trump’s speeches sound like the same crap uttered buy second and third graders in lunch rooms and playgrounds. But the fact that the entire herd of like-minded sheep it up. It’s not the bad optics of the rally. It’s a disgusting reflection of America.
A close friend of mine is a serious Trump supporter. His Facebook post today read, I just visited Mexico at the Galleria Mall. I will not say anything else.
Today’s exercise children:
Find the alpha male in the paragraph below using the correct pronoun:
“I went to a street festival yesterday. There was a stand selling American flags and other classic American items and also had various books and pamphlets on the Constitution, the Founders, John Birch Society, etc. We stopped to browse and talk to the two women at the stand. A guy steps up, red-faced, points his finger in the face of one of the women and in a raised voice, starts blabbing a whole bunch of crap about freedom and diversity or whatever psychotic shit we was belching. You think I was ready to pounce on the guy? No, my spouse was a micro-second away from ripping the guys head off and this biker dude steps up and calmly tells the guy to move on. The guy moved on. He was one more word away from death as this biker guy would have probably killed him on the spot.”
Eddie – I mentioned avoiding large public gatherings for now especially the political ones. The ultraviolence will unfortunately happen and it will come from all sides of the political spectrum, and last thing you need is your wife getting your ass kicked or worse by some nutter. It’s just not worth it….
In news that matters. The ten year seems to have resumed its march upward.
I love these truncated Yahoo Finance shared URL links.
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5ETNX#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-
Juice,
In that scenario you have the combo of politics plus alpha male rustling.
Let’s not forget that many women today are no longer demure, kind, and sweet, some will run you over with their car or shoot you if you mention something about their hair and makeup that they “perceive” as offensive.
Lib: I would expect it from Trump. It’s more dangerous in my view, from Biden who portrayed himself as the cool, calm unite. The adult, the former VP and 50 years of serving the American people.
Libturd,
Use Bitly
Every time I watch Trump speak…
Why are you watching him speak, then? Why is the guy they made president not being the focus of every second of every day? People are struggling, inflation is rampant, the southern border is an open highway for people and drugs, we’re asking other countries for energy assistance, terror1sts groups are training again and meanwhile, the FBI is rifling through Melania’s underwear. Yet, we’re still talking about Trump.
Sadly, the white alpha male, with his submissive wife, Christian upbringing and lack of education, is making a come back. Oh how far we’ve come and how quickly the masses of asses want to return to a society where being born with these characteristics gives you the right to be a prick to everyone else. Telling them what to do with their bodies is only the beginning.
Eddie,
That’s because its all part of the plan, you know, to eliminate-once and for all, the pesky middle class.
And they will succeed cause they have you divided and fighting against one another.
That’s the goal.
…and last thing you need is your wife getting your ass kicked or worse by some nutter.
True that. lol. I thought the leftists were tolerable people who agree to disagree and respect all sides. I would have said something to the guy first but what angered me is that he was pointing his finger at one of the women, not his bullshit rhetoric.
Lib – re: “It’s a disgusting reflection of America.”
Unfortunately we have seen nothing yet as down the rabbit hole we go. Some people will not be able to keep themselves from descending further and further down. Social media only makes it worse too, your tweet example for instance. The tone is bad already and I fear will only get worse. There is no campaigning on issues here. Trump calls Biden Enemy of the State Biden calls Trump a fascist….it’s just going to get worse and worse.
Lib,
The wives are not “submissive.” That’s what they want you to believe.
Women in America have plenty of alpha characteristics themselves. They eliminated Al Franken with a photograph from the past. They control most men with ease-especially law enforcement.
“your making the employees feel uncomfortable, the female employees”
The men aren’t uncomfortable? This is the bias in law enforcement. He needs to be a hero.
https://youtu.be/MI_nqjTfrT4?t=303
but what angered me is that he was pointing his finger at one of the women
+1 alpha male point.
First one to get to 3 wins.
I don’t watch Trump speeches. I cringe over them. I’m sure even many of his supporters do too.
I read recently he promised pardons of all of the January 6th, Capitol rioters if elected.
There is nothing anyone here can say that supports Trump, that would make me think they are traitorous at best. You can hate Biden. Point to all of the corruption and cronyism that exists among the Democrats and especially their immoral majority speaker of the House. Yeah, there are tons of things wrong with the establishment Democrats. But they did not lead an insurrection to overturn the results of a fair election.
Sorry, but your party is way closer to to a Kristallnacht than you even realize. The neocons were hardly angels. Much like the establishment Dems. But they don’t rile up the masses of unintelligent with propaganda befitting the Nazis. I’ve listened to Trump’s speeches. He is not Hitler. Hitler was a much better liar.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/donald-trumps-first-campaign-ad/
https://youtu.be/TztxwKfud-k
Though he is getting closer.
Guess you missed my post with the woman being rude to employees and demanding her sammmwich.
I’m thinking its more of a boomer thing-both genders.
Oh how far we’ve come and how quickly the masses of asses want to return to a society where being born with these characteristics gives you the right to be a prick to everyone else.
America kneels to God and God alone!
Such powerful words to the weak minded.
Most of what is in that video rings true.
But Trump was never going to fix it.
And neither is Biden.
This is “good cop, bad cop” routine.
The corporate oligarchs of America run the show here. It’s a cooked goose.
Of course it is Phoenix.
By the way, you made me laugh out loud over your catalytic convertor comment. Gator chuckled too. Very good.
Lib: I would say more anti Semitism, or at least as much on the radical left side, as there is on the right. Evangelicals for instance love Israel.
Oh my, lefty blowhard lecture hour. Please enthrall us with this vision of America. Feminized men, infanticide and lawlessness. Sounds wonderful.
I hate the radical left as much as I hate the Trumpy right. Though, I’m not sure that a radical left exists. It’s more establishment versus progressive on the left. On the Right, you had a rationale party that was hijacked by the populists. Of course, all of the former Republican pricks bought the Trump steaks since self-enrichment trumps any kind of politics or supposed beliefs. I actually respected those who retired, especially the ones who had a chance of winning their primaries.
GOAT,
I was in an ice cream shop in tiny Meridan Connecticut this weekend as my son had a hockey tournament in Northford. A 16 year-old male, who clearly wanted to be woman walked in with a female friend. You would have loved him. He had eye make up with sparkles. He was wearing a half shirt with his hairy back for all to see. Plus the tiniest pair of yellow shorts. The inseam had to be at about six inches, at best. Of course my first reaction was a double take. I hadn’t expected to see such a gender busting example out in the sticks. But of course, as I thought a little more about it, I realized, there are probably just as many of them in the sticks as in urban areas. Only, we’ve come far enough as population to accept people for what they are.
I then pondered my two son’s gender identities. Now if either of them decided to dress this way as a male, I would be much happier today knowing that at least a large portion of the population has advanced enough to not feel the need to bash them. Would hate for them to have to live in secrecy.
Go throw some money into that wicker basket this Sunday. Father Maloney needs some money to defend his case against a couple of alter boys while preaching to his masses how such behavior leads to an afterlife at the foot of satan.
Does this suffice Goat?
If it makes him happy then good for him but most of those kids would grow out of it in their own if the activists don’t get to them first. Starting with the medications and surgeries.
Goat,
No one WANTS to be gay and deal with people like you. That’s what you don’t get. It’s not for attention. God help you if your offspring ends up gay or misgendered. Or would you rather they off themselves?
More than likely GOAT has always been uncomfortable about gay people. But likely he was more comfortable when they were still in the closet. Then he didn’t have to think about them.
Every time GOAT goes on one of his rants about gays or masculinity I have this vision of him being beaten to a pulp by a drag queen. It brings a smile to my face.
Lib – re: ” It’s not for attention”
Hate to tell you this but it could be. There is a whole new phenomenon happening now with straight boys and men. Feigning gay as a form of clickbait is now a huge thing on social media like tick tok etc. The vast majority of these boys or men followers are female. The girls don’t feel threatened or confused by guys who are feigning gay and being playful with other guys, the girls find it sexy.
Don’t tell me have you never heard of guys pretending to be gay to get girls or a better apartment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2gCfwILUVc
Infanticide? Crippled brain.
3b,
Anti Zionism isn’t antisemitism. Not saying there isn’t crossover between the 2 but they aren’t identical. On the other hand, just because evangelicals support Israel doesn’t mean they aren’t antisemitic.
BTW – The trans swimmer Lia Thomas? Great example of this phenomenon I mentioned. She only dates women, and the twig and berries still work fine.
Ezra Miller is surrounded by supportive LGBTQ+ folks in Hollywood but it’s pretty obvious that he’s a wacko. They keep humoring it/they/him, whatever it wants to be called, but it’s not enough to keep him from acting like a wacko asshole. Oh dear, I misgendered Ezra Miller, I hope he doesn’t track me down and slap me! Excuse me, I don’t call a singular person “they” because I already learned grammar before it got wokified. Maybe his confusion about what he is, is simply a symptom of deeper psychological problems.
Are these folks crazy, or just facing prejudice?
https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2000/oct/13/features11.g22
Juice,
Sure there are a few attention whores. I try to not take one-offs and apply them to an entire group. Sure, I’ve seen cheap Jews. Shallow WASPs. Dumb Polish people (I had to there), and I once saw a Chinese guy piss in a Coke bottle. The truth is, Jews tend to be some of the most philanthropic people. It’s a requirement of the religion. Glen Ridge is super WASPy. When our D got sick, they took in my older son like he was one of their own. I lied about the Chinese guy.
Stereotypes are fun when they are used for satire. Not so much for political means.
These are one off cases. They make for an entertaining read. They are not representative of the group.
It’s kind of like saying all immigrants are rapists.
Lib: I disagree, there is most certainly a radical left, can’t be a radical right without a radical left, or Vice versa. One or the other or both are going to destroy this country. And that’s a shame.
Libturd says:
September 6, 2022 at 12:27 pm
“… I’m not sure that a radical left exists. ”
Yes, you are. You just won’t admit it because then you’d need to admit that the radical left has effectively wrested control of the Dem party. It’s not simply that the party now has a contingent of avowed socialists such as AOC and Bernie and blatant antisemites like Omar and Tlaib, it’s a party that literally doesn’t want to control our borders and literally doesn’t want to put criminals in jail. If you vote Dem, you vote for the radical left!
If you want to talk like a rationale person, the border remains open to allow for the next generation of Dem voters. Whether or not the border’s status of opened or closed benefits America is an entirely different question.
Personally, I see help wanted signs everywhere I go. The vast majority of these border crossers would fill those positions if they were allowed to. We also need this cheap labor to pick produce, assemble clothes, package products, etc. Neither party seems to want to spend the money to properly process immigrants. So it’s become politicized, like everything else (like gender and sexuality and religion) into a wedge issue. Like with abortion, and gender issues, and guns. The vast majority would be open to a compromised position. This is how it used to work. Now there is zero compromise from either party. It’s my way or the highway. What the people want doesn’t matter one iota. And this is what will spell the demise of our government.
The setup of our government encourages compromise and works against authoritarianism. But looking at the recent decisions of the the conservative SCOTUS, the White House and the Congress, compromise is over.
And to call Biden a progressive is just silly. He is a feeble old man who has a history of putting his foot in his mouth. Though he served forever, he has few accomplishments besides tenure and climbing the political ladder. Experience maybe, but I would argue that’s a bad thing since I’m anti Dem establishment.
Tell me what bills AOC, Bernie, Talib and Omar have passed? The moment Biden was elected, the progressives were shut down. And I’m not sure why you consider them so radical. There would have been no Gulf War had we listened to them. Perhaps they could broker a peace in Israel. Is requiring members of the house and senate to have to read the bills before they sign them such a radical idea?
Claiming to build a wall to keep your neighbors out and then saying the neighbor will pay for it is radical. So radical that it was never going to happen. So it became a lie. Though, I suppose lying is not radical and has become complete commonplace.
Bitcoin and Crypto looking particularly ugly today. Anyone getting the feeling that the bottom is about to fall out of this market? And what happened to the Great Pumpkin? Did he load up the car with BBBY shares?
BREAKING!
A New Mexico judge ordered Otero County Commissioner Couy Griffin be removed from office, effective immediately.
Griffin participated in the Jan 6 insurrection.
He was removed under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
They should lock him up with his horse.
Fourteenth Amendment
Section 3 Disqualification from Holding Office
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.
Unstable Genius,
Lol. Gotta love the way you pop out of your hole once in a while to yawp some senseless slop that nobody cares about. Maybe you can host season two of the clown show chronicles. Lol.
The timing is pretty funny. He’s like a prairie dog.
I’d say the mayors of all of these major cities are pretty radical
BRT: I agree.
If radical equals stupid, then I agree with you.
2:18 somebody probably warned him not to post during
the day.
I kind of have the same feeling Ex. I bet a student said he was on his phone all day.
Someone really has to slip a hidden camera into his classroom.
LOL, wasn’t he “all-in” on DNA in the 3s and ETH in the 20s?
Down about 20% on the former and up to 50% on the latter….afraid to show his face….
“Every time I watch Trump speak…Why are you watching him speak, then? Why is the guy they made president not being the focus of every second of every day?…I’ve listened to Trump’s speeches…”
JFC…I would like to get a count of who starts conversations on here about DJT…not responses, but as a new topic. Bet the Left (Ex, Lib, Fab, ByS, et. al,) far exceed original mentions over the Right on here….
Never understood how someone can get so deeply into someone else’s head…
Chi – I spoke with someone at Whole Foods today they said that department came up $50,000 short in the last inventory for liquor. So it’s not just the shoplifters but it’s probably grandma sticking A bottle in her purse too.
Pandemic destroyed ambition and work ethic. Going to be a huge price for this…
“Roughly one pandemic later, there has been such an abrupt rupture in the way we work—not to mention how we think and talk about it—that we grasp at new taxonomies for the disillusionment with the hustle: It’s millennial burnout, it’s the “Age of Anti-Ambition,” it’s the Great Resignation. As the labor market has tightened and the labor movement regains cachet, living “under capitalism” has become a default punchline. The antiwork subreddit is the hottest club in town. Ambitious women are reportedly done with girlbossing (now in vogue: girlresting) and The Wing has officially crashed; it appears Kim Kardashian’s assessment that nobody wants to work these days was correct, because even Serena Williams can’t have it all. Of those who have given notice, there’s a predictable amount of regret: just not, it seems, amongst the clear majority.
Nowhere has this work-life reckoning been analyzed more obsessively than in the realm of white-collar work, where a confrontation with its privileges (being able to Zoom in to meetings from home) and indignities (having to grimace for the camera through all two hours of said Zoom meeting) has made for quite a lot of soul-searching. Consider the pandemic television shows that have elicited the buzziest (virtual) watercooler talk amongst the very-online class. Recent series like The Bear and Abbott Elementary depict workplaces that resist any administrative beveling of the messy realities of serving food and teaching children, which the Slack-dependent then watch with fetishistic awe. Meanwhile, we observe the infantilizing melon parties of Severance and the jargon-happy, nihilistic earners of Industry with an uneasy sense of identification. (Wait, is this fucking play about us?)
And so the future of white-collar work has morphed from an advertiser-friendly thought exercise to an existential question with a daily subset of moral riddles: Is that an illicit midday nap, or is it just work-life balance? Is it really the end of work friends, or is it just that a defensive herd mentality is no longer crucial to getting through the day? Is it worse to work on vacation, or to have a little vacation at work? Is the delivery bot lost in the woods, or is he finally free?”
https://apple.news/ASH0v9lCdQwWXxTe8l7BY6A
leftwing,
It’s like Howard Stern. Whether you like him or hate him, you can’t stop listening because you can’t believe what will come out of his mouth next.
Yeah, me thinks Mr. Market is doing exactly what I predicted it was going to do once the Summer was over. Did you read the Morgan Stanley predictions based on the higher interest rates. In short, they said it is going to really damage corporate earnings. Current earnings are priced in. Future earnings are not. Current earnings are still priced at ZIRP. Says treasuries are going up from here and at 5 by next Summer (I think). ZIRP and 5 are a big range IMO.
Mocking hard work and ambition. We are so f’ed.
Get ready to pay more for everything.
Sad, america was built on a work ethic, it’s now dead…this country is in trouble.
“We can call the former, if you’re feeling derisive, the “professional try-hards;” I’d love to be flip and just say that, at this point in planetary decline, anyone who’s a little too interested in emails and Google Docs basically counts as a try-hard, but there’s a specific category of salaryfolk and company leadership provoking a justifiable kind of scorn. The professional try-hard I’m talking about is someone who, in the year 2022, still earnestly and performatively buys into the white-collar hustle and prides themselves on it. You know this person. They’re a cross between a teacher’s pet and a supply-room narc; if they’re not already a manager, they certainly aim to be one day. While everyone else got with the program that trying hard at work—against a political and national backdrop that feels like daily, endless crisis—is ridiculous, or worse, meaningless, these guys (it’s not exclusively a male thing, of course, but I’m not not being gendered on purpose) haven’t quite gotten with the program.”
With the refusal to prosecute theft along with the corporations writing it off as the cost of doing business and an incompetent FBI/IRS, organized crime is likely going to make a major comeback.
Patience and long game plan….you know nothing of it.
I love both at current pricing. You were prob the guy laughing at amazon and apple back in the day…
leftwing says:
September 6, 2022 at 5:39 pm
LOL, wasn’t he “all-in” on DNA in the 3s and ETH in the 20s?
Down about 20% on the former and up to 50% on the latter….afraid to show his face….
You have such a short term mindset. That’s not for me, but enjoy your short term plays.
In conclusion, I think we’re at the end of a major sovereign bond bubble and this energy crisis is the catalyst. The Fed will be forced to stimulate or risk full implosion of the monetary system.
What will be unique about this time Oil will still be going higher, not lower.
As the game theory plays out, our goal is to find the optimal moment to long the fuck out of our favourite crypto ponzis. I see many takes from people who think QE is never coming again but it will, just under other names. Get ready to max long after this coming flush.
I just choose not to. Took too much chit on this blog for too long…just got tired of being put down…so I stopped contributing like I used to.
Ex says:
September 6, 2022 at 3:25 pm
2:18 somebody probably warned him not to post during
the day.
Working on a thesis….
We are beyond peak inflation. We will shortly be through peak tightening expectations.
Fed Funds Rate futures show up to 125bps more tightening through this year end (from a current 225-250 rate). That’s a 75-25-25 or a 50-50-25 cadence into December. They max out at 4.0% in April 2023.
I did the math over the weekend using prospective month-over-month CPI and calculating what that implies for year-over-year CPI going forward. Recall last month CPI was flat MoM. August CPI is out on the 13th. Fed presser the 21st.
Bottom line, if MoM CPI stays flat or even increases up to 0.3% then CPI YoY will have to DECLINE beneath the FFR. Mathematically has to happen. I believe this point is being entirely overlooked.
Should MoM CPI stay flat – no growth nor any decline monthly – YoY CPI will decline to equal a 4.0% FFR in March 2023…
If MoM CPI increases at 0.3%, YoY CPI will decline to equal a 4.0% FFR in June 2023…
Where am I going with this? Everyone again has run to the other side of the boat with Powell’s Jackson Hole speech…I’ll start adding some OTM low risk, high return strategies for a market turn up targeting 9/30 tomorrow…if prior to the 13th we see an SPX with a lower 38 handle (Brainard/Powell/Waller speak this Thurs, ECB acts this week, etc) or we get a spike in vol that inverts that curve I would hop in very hard…
These are two nice opportunities for a ST stock market reversal and quick uplift as participants reassess their worst case scenarios…the reaction to the actual CPI on the 13th and the Fed’s response to it a week later.
Here’s an interesting piece encompassing MoM rents….
https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data
Good luck all.
Say his name….he appears.
M a g i c
“leftwing, It’s like Howard Stern. Whether you like him or hate him, you can’t stop listening…”
LOL, now I get it…I could never stand Stern so listened to him as much as I do DJT, Sanders, Paul, or AOC now….
Glanced through the report, if you want a full copy lmk.
Bottom line, they forecast real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2023 but a 10% cut in SPX earnings to 219 from 244 and throw a 17.8 multiple against it…That base case yields 3900 for the SPX, bear case is 3350. I can work with those numbers…especially since Wilson (the analyst) is usually among the most bearish.
Looking toward SPX equal weight or ex-FANG (my largest exposure is META and GOOG), or toward the SPX400 index…both have shit options liquidity though….
I can’t stand AOC, but I actually respect some of her positions. I just don’t like loud mouths.
Lib: She can’t articulate any of her so called positions and they are just all sound bites. She knows little to nothing on any topic. She is just a big mouth, and loves the celebrity.
I’m no fan of Stern but Private Parts was a hoot.
Stern was good back in the day, and I’m not talking all the perv stuff. The news and just general conversations were great. Especially when comedians or musicians came on. But he got so uptight a little after the Sirius move and Artie’s downfall that the show morphed into something else, and it bored me very quickly.
He is going to have a stroke and die within 2-3 years.
Libturd says:
September 6, 2022 at 11:51 am
https://youtu.be/TztxwKfud-k
Though he is getting closer.
Wesleyan is in Middletown CT next town over
Libturd says:
September 6, 2022 at 12:39 pm
GOAT,
I was in an ice cream shop in tiny Meridan Connecticut this weekend as my son had a hockey tournament in Northford. A 16 year-old male, who clearly wanted to be woman walked in with a female friend. You would have loved him. He had eye make up with sparkles. He was wearing a half shirt with his hairy back for all to see. Plus the tiniest pair of yellow shorts. The inseam had to be at about six inches, at best. Of course my first reaction was a double take. I hadn’t expected to see such a gender busting example out in the sticks.
Had no idea. Quinnipiac is nearby too.
That’s so fucking insane. Sickening.
Box says:
September 6, 2022 at 5:52 pm
Chi – I spoke with someone at Whole Foods today they said that department came up $50,000 short in the last inventory for liquor. So it’s not just the shoplifters but it’s probably grandma sticking A bottle in her purse too
A document describing a foreign government’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, was found by FBI agents who searched former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and private club last month, according to people familiar with the matter, underscoring concerns among U.S. intelligence officials about classified material stashed in the Florida property.