The power of positive thinking

From Bloomberg:

US Consumers See Home Prices Falling for First Time Since 2020

For the first time in two years, US consumers expect home prices to fall over the next 12 months.

An August survey by Fannie Mae found that respondents see a 0.4% decline in housing prices compared with the prior month’s expectations for a 1.9% increase. 

Consumers also anticipate that rental price growth will slow, with year-ahead expectations dropping nearly two percentage points, the steepest slide in data back to 2010, according to the survey released Wednesday.

The Fannie Mae report found that the share of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased to 33% from 39%, while the percentage who expect them to fall increased 3 percentage points to 33%. 

“The share of consumers expecting home prices to go down over the next year increased substantially in August,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae. “We also observed a large decline in consumers reporting high home prices as the primary reason for it being a good time to sell a home, suggesting that expectations of slowing or declining home prices have begun to negatively affect selling sentiment.”

The Fannie Mae survey found that half of consumers think it would be difficult for them to get a home mortgage today — the largest share since October 2014.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

107 Responses to The power of positive thinking

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. Ex says:

    I’m positive Trump and his minions are fuuucked.
    See positive thinking !

  3. dentss dunnigan says:

    German Diplomat Who Mocked Trump At UN Suddenly Silent As President’s ‘Russian Energy’ Warning Comes True

  4. Phoenix says:

    “German Diplomat Who Mocked Trump At UN Suddenly Silent As President’s ‘Russian Energy’ Warning Comes True”

    Germany should have stayed neutral in the war in Ukraine.
    That would have been the smart move. They let Q-Tips handlers tell them what to do.

    Too bad so sad.

  5. Phoenix says:

    Anyone else really believe the “paparazzi” finished Diana off?

    I have a house to sell you in Jersey.

  6. Ex says:

    A drugged up dumbass driver did her in.

  7. Ex says:

    Unpopular opinion: Tucker Carlson is a piece of shit.

  8. Ex says:

    Second unpopular opinion: jogging at 4:30 AM in a shithole like Memphis is a terrible idea.

  9. Ex says:

    Third unpopular opinion: giving zero fucks is the new normal.

  10. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    Doing anything in a city now is stupid. Democrats have have them over to s3x fiends, gangs, and the criminals insane. They call it equity. But those MAGA Pepe sure are dangerous. Old corrupt Joe told me so.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    November 8th, 2022:

    Tick… tick… tick… tick…

  12. BidenIsTheGOAT says:

    The quiet part about the danger of MAGA people is they are dangerous to the elitist agenda. Corrupt Joe left that part out. The war in Ukraine, the green new deal bs, the open border, all great for the global elite while the common man eats shlt. Trump will say so, it’s why they hate him so bad.

  13. TenPercentForTheBigGuy says:


    The Biden administration has officially undone a Trump-era rule that barred illegal aliens from gaining legal residency. They will also have access to health and supplemental government services funded by tax-payer dollars. The U.S. spends upwards of $330 Billion annually on these benefits and services granted to illegal aliens. That figure roughly equates to an extra tax burden of $2,500 per taxpayer.

  14. Libturd says:

    Is this the MAGA full court press?

  15. Libturd says:

    “Hang Pence.”

    Such a compassionate party.

  16. chicagofinance says:

    Yellow Jacket Infestation. Advice?

    We have a nest under our roof. I checked in the attic and it extends a few feet into the insulation. I think the better angle to treat would be from the inside. I’ve already used the product Seven several weeks ago for a ground bee nest.

  17. Jim says:

    Get a professional exterminator, you do not want these bees getting through the house.
    I have had too many run ins with wasps and yellow jackets and finally learned it was easier to pay someone else to kill them all dead.

  18. BRT says:

    I’ve been saying this for years but anyone that thought they could dismantle existing power plants and replace them with green alternatives was very bad at math. When central planners are this dumb, this is how you get events where millions of people actually starve to death.

  19. Juice Box says:

    Chi – re: “extends a few feet into the insulation”… It may not be a new nest, the regular paper wasps are only a few dozen but yellow jackets can be thousands. How did they get in? Roof eave and or soffit? Those are usually bug proof the soffit itself or a soffit vent will be need to be sealed up wherever they got in. Most workers die when temps dip. Put out some traps near the entrances if you can find them. You do need to clear it out when it gets colder and kill the queens etc or they will be back and expand even further, or just call a professional to kill them and clear it out and seal up the holes.

  20. BRT says:

    Unless you can actually access the nest with direct spray, you probably need an exterminator because their dust product penetrates everything.

  21. Chicago says:

    My biggest concern is that I may not have time to wait this out. They will probably eat through the indoor Sheetrock in the ceiling of one of the bathrooms. I can hear them.

    That said, it just seems so doable. Maybe slowly poison them over the course of weeks and wait for the cold. C

  22. BRT says:

    I once stuck a glue trap out of a yellow jacket nest. They flew onto it, signaled for help from other nests via pheromones. Replaced the sticky trap 10 times. Caught a few hundred.

  23. Chicago says:

    BRT if I had protection, I could access the nest, because I just need to pull back the insulation in the attic.

  24. Chicago says:

    The entrance is a good 30 feet off the ground.

  25. Chicago says:

    It just like a waste of $300-$1,000.

    They charge by zip code around here.

  26. Bystander says:

    “all great for the global elite while the common man”

    Yes, the silver spoon/daddy’s money billionaire really speaks for the common man. Delusional as usual.

  27. Juice Box says:

    30 ft? Yeah stay off the ladder….Buy a Gotcha Sprayer adapter for the bug spray can and get long extension pole there are a few out there that are up to 30 ft.{AdId}&device=c&matchtype=&gclid=Cj0KCQjwyOuYBhCGARIsAIdGQROC_N9cCLzAxly3oVjDkSqJEvrDQfMLD_lCGIyEmmrX999woPeo9kwaAuJhEALw_wcB

  28. Fast Eddie says:


    Call the exterminator, let them spray the dust and be done with it.

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    House around the corner listed about a week ago, last night, biked by it, under contract. Forget playing the game in North Jersey, people are buying, these prices will be sticky but hell would freeze before they decline of any significance to the naked eye. Raise the 30-year to 7%, 8%… doesn’t matter. Not my rules, simply a ‘fuck you, pay me’ very competitive area of the country.

  30. Libturd says:

    This is one for the exterminator. You don’t need to get stung 100 times at the top of a ladder. Yellow Jackets, though tiny, are nasty swarmers. They are very good at getting into your socks, under your shirt, etc. I found that out when my pack hit a nest when hiking the AT. The only thing that saved me was detaching my pack while running top speed. Probably 95% stopped to attack the dumb pack. The other 5% seemed to love my ankles. So as I’m getting stung and running top speed down the trail, I have to take off my hiking boots and socks. It was like a trail of hiking shrapnel. If I can’t spray them directly, let an exterminator do it. Also, always deal with bees at dusk.

    For whatever reason, the amount of ground bees (yellow jackets primarily) is astonishing. Never saw so many. Which is great, as there was literally a huge bee shortage just a year or two ago.

  31. Bystander says:

    Don’t know Ed. Strange market. My town had most influx of people in Northeast during pandemic but train ride is 75m into Grand Central. There is classic colonial down from me, sitting for a month at 799k, needs some updates but clean. It is big at 2900 sqft, with full basement and two car garage. Sellers paid 570k back in 2013 so not absurd but still high. That “IT recruiter” (over)paid 680k for a dumpy pink 1700 sq ft house two months ago. I also noticed that train lot was way fuller than in past. It was 40-50% since April and yesterday probably 75% full. Lots of edicts that go back into office. Guessing quick ride train towns will be hold up for awhile. It is all about wages/employment right now and people believing that investments will grow. The building is still insane. More new homes coming every week.

  32. Trick says:

    Yellow jacks are the worst, we have a nest somewhere every year. Once in the flue, eve, swing set, and in the ground. When I took the sheetrock down in the kitchen there was an old nest that was huge. One time power washing the swing set I hit a nest I didn’t know was there. Ran full speed into the garage, got hit 5 times while running and screaming like a little girl

  33. joyce says:

    Fast Eddie says:
    November 4, 2015 at 2:50 pm
    Sold for 940K in mid 2007, currently asking 699K. It’s still an epic bloodbath and Clot is right, it’ll be years before it all washes out:
    816 Clauss Ln, River Vale, NJ 07675

  34. Trick says:

    Get one of those traps from Lowes or HD, add water and hang it by the nest. I have caught hundreds including the queen one year.

  35. 3b says:

    Fast: Our area is always the last to feel it. No way 7 to 8 percent mortgages don’t make an impact. There is not much inventory in my blue ribbony train town but it’s sitting, and theoretically at least it should be gone. Longer term , declining birth rates, less marriage etc, I don’t think we will see the same demand like in my day. Again, I would point out a 20 percent increase in house prices in a year is unprecedented, and I believe that will ultimately blow off price wise.

  36. 3b says:

    Bystander: A few tear downs/ rebuilds in my town going on, it looks like they are working furiously to get them on the market. A couple of more have been sitting since the spring with no activity, don’t know what’s going on with those; perhaps their credit lines were pulled.

    Train parking lot in my town had about 20 cars earlier this week, the most I have seen since the start of the pandemic; today there were 5. So, I assume some form of hybrid/ remote office set up for slot of people. My Brother s big law firm started 3 days at home, two in the office this past Tuesday, prior to that it was 4 in the office and one at home. He tells me midtown/ Times Square still pretty empty in his view, although up from what it had been.

  37. BRT says:


    my outfit of choice is sweatshirt, jeans, high sox over the pants, gloves, a clown mask, and goggles over the eyes. Full coverage. If you can get to it safely, a few cans of the hornet spray are worth the shot before you call someone.

  38. SmallGovConservative says:

    Libturd says:
    September 9, 2022 at 10:09 am
    “Is this [Biden administration has officially undone a Trump-era rule…] the MAGA full court press?”

    Sounds more like the STOOGE shuffle. T’s rule made complete sense — for American taxpayers — by limiting immigrants ability to come into the country and immediately become wards of the state. Incompetent and worthless Dems of course are more than happy to encourage and grow government dependency, and that’s what this does. Now, not only will the million or so legal immigrants each year have immediate access to taxpayer-funded welfare programs, so will the two million or so that enter illegally — with Joe’s blessing. Sounds like a policy a stooge would love.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    All last year, every Friday there were no cars on the road. This morning, traffic.

    Like I said over and over again, give it enough time, and people will be back in the office.

  40. Fast Eddie says:


    What kind of mortgages were they giving away around 2007? Remember Tangelo and similar posse? If you were in a coma, they gave you a mortgage, frequently at 103% LTV.

  41. Libturd says:

    5% down is still a joke.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Drop the mic….someone gets it.

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 9, 2022 at 1:28 pm

    What kind of mortgages were they giving away around 2007? Remember Tangelo and similar posse? If you were in a coma, they gave you a mortgage, frequently at 103% LTV.

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The point is: banks are not giving money to unqualified buyers. They are not taking on the risk. It’s a nightmare trying to prove to the bank that you qualify to get a mortgage. People that have been buying over the last 10 years have all been qualified buyers.

    Libturd says:
    September 9, 2022 at 1:32 pm
    5% down is still a joke.

  44. 3b says:

    Lib BOA is rolling out o down, o closing cost mortgages, in various cities in minority neighborhoods; we will see how that turns out. As for 5 percent down, my wife tells me they are/ were still quite common. And, in her office a few deals have falling through the last 2 months, unable to qualify for mortgage, or House did not appraise out. And, these are in leafy upper Bergen County towns.

  45. BRT says:

    I think Lib’s point was, if you don’t have 20%, you weren’t qualified. We changed the definition over time. Kinda like 3% inflation is the new “no inflation”

  46. Fast Eddie says:


    I noticed also that the parking lots are getting fuller and people are starting to migrate back to the office a bit more. For those with 75 minute train rides, they’ll deal with the hybrid schedule as that seems to be the general consensus with most firms.

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The bank understands the risk. 5% or 20%….what difference does it make if the person has qualified? It’s a living hell trying to get a mortgage. They are not giving out mortgages to anyone. This is not 2005.

  48. 3b says:

    Fast: Amazon CEO said yesterday, he has no intention of forcing employees back to the office. I know a few people that are back 2 days in the office, for team building exercises, or presentations. One told me they were basically told this is more just using the office space until the leases are up.

  49. Fast Eddie says:


    Still no inventory because whatever comes on the market sells quickly. We’re at around 5.8% on the 30 year? 7% is not going to make a difference. If it goes higher, the temptation will be for lenders to manipulate and squeeze people into mortgages. The chubby muppets will proclaim, “I’ll be damned if I don’t get top dollar for my musty, dated hovel!” What goes around, comes around. Tangelo lives! lol. Maybe.

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:


    The longer you go into this, the more company owners realize it doesn’t work. It was working at first because teams had been working together for years. That connection is slowly fading away. Productivity has been destroyed…that’s all that matters. The data doesn’t lie.

  51. 3b says:

    Fast: No disrespect Ed, but I believe you are wrong if you think 7 percent won’t make a difference, the rate increases have already had an increase perhaps not in the more expensive areas of Bergen Co, but as I said my town blue ribbon, train town ( not that that matters much any more) and small inventory, and yet they are sitting, a few since late Spring through the summer.

  52. joyce says:

    You said hell would freeze over before North Jersey would be affected. I guess you meant that wasn’t the case in the past, but it is now. A new normal?

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 9, 2022 at 1:28 pm

    What kind of mortgages were they giving away around 2007? Remember Tangelo and similar posse? If you were in a coma, they gave you a mortgage, frequently at 103% LTV.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:


    To be fair, even if we had some price falls, it was almost impossible to get a turnkey home for cheap after 2008. I was shopping, I know. Only things that went for a discount were POS homes that needed to be renovated and flipped. That’s what brought down the pricing avgs in the data. It wasn’t real if you were shopping for a nice turnkey home.

    The house you shared earlier to fast eddie as an example was more than likely a pos bought for top dollar with zero down to be flipped for a higher price, but got caught with their hand in the cookie jar.

    Also, northeast jersey did not get slammed like other parts of the country. Sussex got slammed, but Bergen not so much.

  54. Old realtor says:

    Market in North Jersey was in a slow drift sideways and leaking downward in the 12 months preceding the pandemic. Stock market heading down, interest rates heading upward and unknown long-term impact of work from home have to be factored into the equation. My bet is after 2 years of unprecedented appreciation we are headed for a drop in prices or a long slide sideways.

    Prices drop around here. We drop less and recover more quickly than most areas. We are in a period of change. Where people want to live and what they want from a home is changing.

    Where you sit is where you stand. Not buying anything right now. Would only buy a multi with a fat cash flow in a suburban location or a flip that only needs cosmetics. Have to steal it. Can’t put accurate projected future values on projects. Let someone else try buying a project that won’t hit the market for 9 months or more. Not with my money or my investors.

  55. Fast Eddie says:


    You said hell would freeze over before North Jersey would be affected. I guess you meant that wasn’t the case in the past, but it is now. A new normal?

    How about, more normal or slightly less absurd. Giving 700K mortgages to people with no jobs is not normal. Probably having houses go up 25% in an 18 month span is not normal either but at the very least, I don’t see prices dropping, just staying around zero to little growth in the next 5 to 7 years. We’re all speculators and gamblers, aren’t we?

  56. 3b says:

    Old: Well said, experience and being in the business matters; that’s real, you call it as you see it, not based on emotion, and even in the event it could be negative ( not saying it is) for you.

  57. 3b says:

    Fast: 5 to 7 years is a long time, I would take a look at Old Realtor just posted.

  58. Libturd says:

    Not trying to be rude, but a lot of us thought housing would stagnate in 2007 rather than drop in price. My multi went from around 700K to below 400K. That’s a pretty serious drop. Now it’s worth 900K. I would not rule out a drop to 550K. It’s not like there is that much less space now than there was back then to build new. And Gen Yers and Zers have less money than Gen Xers.

  59. Libturd says:

    This was the Zillow on my current place. Prices really do fluctuate around here. You just need patience.

  60. 3b says:

    Lib: And a declining birth rate. There was a small uptick last year, but the trend is still down. If people want to see an increase in the birth rate, than perhaps a decrease in house prices is warranted. But, I don’t think you can have an increase in house prices, or a small decline, and an unending increase in property taxes., and then still want an increase or no decline in property prices. Simplistic analogy perhaps, but I believe there is some merit in it.

  61. Bystander says:


    I remain pretty close to job market and I see many less hybrid roles coming. Last few weeks, it is probably 25% full onsite. I saw one today that was “hybrid” but had to be in 4 days a week. Never saw that before. It has been mostly 3 days onsite/ 2 days remote since April. If pure remote then mostly sh&t rate. Many offices had full return after labor day so guessing that was reason for fuller lot. The war is officially here for WFH. Buckle up.

  62. Bystander says:

    More immigrants. $400 to seal my small driveway when it was $25o previously. Labor costs are out of control. We need cheap labor. Go Joe.

  63. 3b says:

    Bystander: Oh there will be a struggle, but in the end the full remote/ hybrid model will win out. The old goats like Jamie Dimon won’t be running these companies forever, and of course he has that massive new headquarters that he is rebuilding on at 270 Park, scheduled to open in 2026, I can see why he wants people back, but in the end, you can stop the future, and there are many companies and younger up and coming leaders who understand that. However, it all plays out, it’s never going back to the old everyone in the office 5 days a week. There was an interesting article the other day about San Francisco office space in the central business district; it was sobering reading for what is already happening there and looks to continue in the future.

  64. 3b says:

    Bystander: No one wants the immigrants in their cities/ towns. Chicago just sent a bus load to one of the Chicago suburbs.

  65. Bystander says:


    I hear you and agree that this is about NYC real estate. Gods knows how many small businesses and restaurants are owned by execs too. They need you spending the money in city for their own wealth. I have 3 day mandate since May and have been in once in two weeks. Until they same something, I will run this way. Meetings from 7:30 to 11:30am straight. Teams has made it harder and now many more presentations. It it weird but I think people feel obligated to fill up screen.

    Immigrants? I live next to Bridgeport, the poorest city in CT. Send them here so I can get cheap pool, nanny and lawn service. It is the American way.

  66. 3b says:

    Bystander: I agree. Also, right or wrong many people don’t feel safe in NYC any more. You have a lot of people who do t remember the bad old days of the 70’ 80s and into the 90s.

    As for getting anyone to come look at a job, it’s impossible, they don’t return calls, and some make appointments and then don’t show up. The next truck I see that says Menendez construction, I will flag them down!

  67. chicagofinance says:

    NEW JERSEY — Filing options for the state’s new ANCHOR Tax Relief Program will drop soon, according to the New Jersey Department of the Treasury. The new, $2 billion tax-relief program replaces the Homestead Rebate, and New Jersey residents will have a few months to take advantage.
    The state will open ANCHOR (Affordable New Jersey Communities for Homeowners and Renters) filing options in mid-September, according to the treasury’s Division of Taxation. Dec. 30 is the filing deadline for ANCHOR applications.
    Here are some reminders of what New Jerseyans should know about the program:
    1. How do I know if I’m eligible for the ANCHOR rebate?
    Refer to your gross income from Tax Year 2019. Here’s why: the Homestead Rebate program had a slight lag in the tax year for which taxpayers benefitted.
    New Jersey residents can apply as homeowners if on Oct. 1, 2019, they:
    • owned a house
    • owned a condominium and paid property taxes on your unit
    • were a resident shareholder of a cooperative housing complex
    • were a resident of a continuing care retirement community and your continuing care contract requires you to pay the proportionate share of property taxes attributable to your unit
    Homeowners don’t qualify if their residence was completely exempt from paying property taxes or they made PILOT (Payments-in-Lieu-of-Tax) payments.
    Unlike the Homestead Rebate, renters can qualify for the ANCHOR program. Taxpayers can qualify as tenants if on Oct. 1, 2019, they:
    • rented an apartment, condominium or house
    • rented or owned a mobile home located in a mobile home park
    But people who lived in tax-exempt, subsidized or campus housing do not qualify.
    The following income levels meet the criteria for a rebate:
    • Homeowners with a household income of less than $150,000
    • Homeowners with a household income between $150,000 and $250,000
    • Renters with incomes up to $150,000
    2. How much of a benefit can I receive?
    Homeowners with a household income of less than $150,000 can get a $1,500 rebate. Homeowners with a household income between $150,000 and $250,000 can receive $1,000. Renters with incomes up to $150,000 will receive $450 each.
    With about 2 million people impacted, ANCHOR rebate recipients will receive an average of $971 for this year.
    3. How do I apply for a rebate?
    Eligible homeowners and rents will be able to apply either online, by phone or via mail — similar to the Homestead Rebate’s process.
    New Jerseyans who qualify can soon file online via this link. Those filing via phone will be able to call 1-877-658-2972.
    To receive a paper application, log in here using your Identification Number and PIN and print it. Or call the ANCHOR Hotline at 1-888-238-1233 to order one.
    Taxpayers can mail it in or you have the option to upload a completed copy of your paper application using the state’s electronic filing system. They will be able to attach supporting documents with the application.
    Check here to see if you’re required to file a paper application.
    4. What will I need to file?
    Taxpayers will need their assigned Identification Number and PIN of their principal residence (main home) that they owned or occupied on Oct. 1, 2019. Be prepared with the following:
    • Valid taxpayer identification number and, if applicable, the taxpayer identification number of your spouse or civil union partner
    • New Jersey Gross Income from Line 29 of your 2019 NJ-1040. (If you are not required to file an NJ-1040, report “0.”)
    • 2019 filing status
    • Date of birth and, if applicable, your spouse’s/civil union partner’s date of birth
    Filers will also get asked the following:
    • You owned the property with someone who is not your spouse/CU partner. If yes, what percentage did you own?
    • The property had more than one unit. If yes, what percentage of the property did you use as your main home?
    5. When will I get my rebate?
    It will be a while, but no later than May, according to the state budget’s language. The timeframe gives the state time to process and validate applications, according to treasury officials. The treasury also has limits on the number of checks it can issue each week.
    It’s not clear when the treasury may begin distributing rebates though.
    6. How can I receive the rebate?
    Recipients should be able to choose their preferred method — check or direct deposit, according to the treasury.

  68. Libturd says:

    I imagine it’s gross income and not net income. Because the gross income won’t include the furnace I replaced, the $100,000 in medical costs, etc.

    NJ is a terrible state.

  69. Ex says:

    8:22 Epic….

  70. Ex says:

    3:27 I had a $140k out on the NJ manse In
    WO with 1/2 of it used to pay child care and the other 1/2 going into electrical, windows, kitchen, roof. Could have easily doubled that. Built out the attic but taxes scared me. Then …… boom
    The crash. Under water on that place until the timeframe we decided to move.
    Happy to clear the modest net that we did. With the reloc and the depressed prices out west. We made up for it On The baCkEnd.

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Elon Musk is an old goat? …Or maybe he likes to get chit done when it comes to his business.

    “ The old goats like Jamie Dimon won’t be running these companies forever, and of course he has that massive new headquarters that he is rebuilding on at 270 Park, scheduled to open in 2026, I can see why he wants people back, but in the end, you can stop the future, and there are many companies and younger up and coming leaders who understand that.”

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Look at my earlier post. Again, the drop in price in the data avgs is due to POS housing being sold at dirt prices to flippers like Old Realtor. In that chit market you still had to pay a big premium to get a turkey home (aka desirable home). Why? Because desirable homes aren’t being sold in a down market unless it’s a divorce, job loss, or death. The supply is almost nonexistent.

    So be careful looking at avgs in the down market….most of the homes being sold in a down market are POS’s.

    Libturd says:
    September 9, 2022 at 3:27 pm
    Not trying to be rude, but a lot of us thought housing would stagnate in 2007 rather than drop in price. My multi went from around 700K to below 400K. That’s a pretty serious drop. Now it’s worth 900K. I would not rule out a drop to 550K. It’s not like there is that much less space now than there was back then to build new. And Gen Yers and Zers have less money than Gen Xers.

  73. Very Stable Genius says:

    This is some Gary-level lack of self-awareness:

    “ Jan 6 defendant Gabriel Garcia asks court to give him formal permission to travel back to Washington, D.C.
    Because he…… “wants to attend a public event with numerous speakers related to supporting January 6, defendants, which will be held on September 24, 2022”

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Beyond the Beltway, a ‘Flat Tax Revolution’
    A rough era for federal taxpayers coincides with burgeoning reform in the states.
    President Joe Biden was in Ohio today boasting about the subsidies that he’s now showering on the semiconductor industry. On other days he touts the funding he’s steering to the favored makers of solar panels or the buyers of university services. Add it all up and it’s not a pleasant era for the federal taxpayers who must cover all these lavish political feasts. But quiet relief is occurring in a growing number of states.

    Jared Walczakwrites this week for the Tax Foundation:

    In more than a century of state income taxes, only four states have ever transitioned from a graduated-rate income tax to a flat tax. Another four adopted legislation doing so this year, and a planned transition in a fifth state is now going forward under a recent court decision. In what is already a year of significant bipartisan focus on tax relief, 2022 is also launching something of a flat tax revolution…

    Iowa is phasing in a 3.9 percent flat individual income tax by 2026, going from a graduated-rate tax that not long ago topped out at 8.98 percent. Mississippi will have a flat tax as of next year, with a 4 percent rate by 2026. Georgia’s income tax is now scheduled to convert to a flat rate of 5.49 percent, eventually phasing down to 4.99 percent. A court cleared the way for the implementation of Arizona’s transition to a 2.5 percent flat tax, which should happen, pending revenue availability, in 2024. In special session, Idaho adopted a 5.8 percent flat tax, replacing a four-bracket system. Missouri has been called into special session to adopt income tax rate cuts, but a flat tax could still be a consideration, soon if not this session, and a serious effort at adopting a flat tax is likely in Oklahoma next year.

    Speaking of reform in Arizona, a Journal editorial notes how lawmakers are looking to ensure that future pols can’t easily undo the state’s remarkable progress:

    The drive of special interests to raise taxes is relentless, and democratic guardrails can be an important taxpayer defense. That’s the logic behind an Arizona effort to lift the threshold for raising taxes by ballot measure. Passing it would help keep the state off the well-trod road to fiscal serfdom.

  75. Mike S says:

    3 days in the office, 2 at home is really a good model. This traffic does suck though. Commute was 50 percent longer this week.

  76. Grim says:

    The traffic on Friday morning was outrageous.

    Back in office now that the kids are back in school?

    Is this the flip?

  77. Juice Box says:

    Queue the riots, and chants that King Charles is a racist. He had the audacity to tell his son to keep his black wife away from the dying Queen, this could also escalate into banishment from the realm for the frog prince if makes a scene over it in the next week and a half as the whole country will be on bank holiday to bury that old bag of bones.

    Too bad they aren’t reality tv like the game of thrones fictional tv show. All Harry has to do is kill his dad, his brother and his brother”s children and he becomes King, heck knock off a few more and we will have Pedo King Andrew on the throne. It’s not like they aren’t above the law, the FBI has given up on trying to bring in Andrew for his Epstein provided underage escapades in NY and the Virgin Islands.

  78. TenPercentForTheBigGuy says:


    “Momentum in the Georgia U.S. Senate race may be shifting in favor of Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Herschel Walker, according to a poll published on Thursday.

    The poll conducted from September 6 to 7 found that Walker now leads Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock with 47 percent support to the senator’s 44 percent.”

  79. Mike S says:

    I brought my car to the Wayne inspection center last week and saw 46 backed up from 23 at 745am. Could not believe people sit in that.

    Back to school back to office is probably what is happening. I’ve been going into work since early 2021 kinda funny full WFH has lasted this long.

  80. 3b says:

    Mike: WFH is not going away. The transition will continue.

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, sorry, but WFH is dead. Not gloating, but I was correct all along on my thesis….businesses are competitive and WFH puts them at a big disadvantage against in person competition. Sure, when your competition is WFH too, it works, but businesses will use any advantage they can to increase productivity. In person is a complete advantage to the business…maybe not for the workers, but it is a complete advantage for the business. At the end of the day, that’s all that matters.

    You have decades of evidence to support how effective in person work is.

    “BlackRock CEO Larry Fink pointed to remote work as one reason for falling U.S. labor productivity.

    BlackRock CEO Larry Fink thinks he has a solution to inflation: Bring people back to the office”

    “On The Claman Countdown, Fink pointed to remote work as one reason for falling U.S. labor productivity. “We have to get our employees back in the office,” he said, arguing that it would lead to “rising productivity that will offset some of the inflationary pressures.”

    That same day, BlackRock said that it would start asking employees to come into the office three days a week, according to an internal email seen by Yahoo Finance. “Time together is how we deliver for clients,” BlackRock COO Rob Goldstein and head of human resources Manish Mehta wrote in the email. Exceptions to the rule “will be rare and require formal approval,” they wrote.”

  82. Phoenix says:

    “He had the audacity to tell his son to keep his black wife away from the dying Queen.”

    She is a mutt. Half and half.

    Not hard on the eyes either. Mixed race can be very attractive.

  83. Phoenix says:

    I brought my car to the Wayne inspection center last week and saw 46 backed up from 23 at 745am. Could not believe people sit in that.

    Depending on your career, what choice do you have?

    WFH snobs do realize that “some people” actually have to show up to a job in order for them to be able to work at home.

  84. Juice Box says:

    Elon Musk @elonmusk

    A major Fed rate hike risks deflation

  85. Libturd says:

    Of the 3 WFHs in my place, one has gone back to work 3 days every two weeks and probably cutting back to 1 day per week. Fed job. Gator and I are still WFH full time. Don’t count your chickens or is that turkeys, as in turkey homes.

  86. says:

    The hypocrite that complains about not making enough money now wants cheap labor.

    “Bystander says:
    September 9, 2022 at 3:47 pm
    More immigrants. $400 to seal my small driveway when it was $25o previously. Labor costs are out of control. We need cheap labor. Go Joe.”

  87. joyce says:

    And the dumbass that can’t spot sarcasm

  88. joyce says:

    Speaking of dumbasses:

    Principal thinks he’s a cop (similar to being a cop, he initially got a new job nearby because of no background check)…

    Cop thinks he’s judge dredd…

  89. 3b says:

    Phoenix: And some show up and punch the clock so to speak, and don’t do very much all day, multiple breaks, lunch hours, often extended, and out the door at 4 or 5. And many have unions to negotiate their pay, raises, and benefits, big pensions and gold plated health care plans. And when some have to work over time, or on the weekends, it’s double overtime pay. Seniority, tenure, and on it goes. And, yet they are still not satisfied , and some begrudge others that don’t have any of the above, that have something they don’t have.

  90. Mike S says:

    Phoenix people can leave their house earlier and avoid that shit show of traffic. I am typically at work by 7:15 am

  91. chicagofinance says:

    Let’s Go Brandon – this development is completely unnecessary and could have been avoided.

    Energy bills for millions of N.J. gas customers will soon soar by as much as 25%
    Matt Arco, Steven Rodas,

    The state Board of Public Utilities unanimously approved the rate hikes for natural gas on Wednesday after companies argued its rising cost forced them to raise prices for their customers up and down the state.

    Customer bills are split between the delivery charge and the Basic Gas Supply Service. The supply service rate is based on the cost of natural gas as a commodity, officials said.

    The new rates will go into effect starting Oct. 1.

    The state’s largest utility, PSE&G, which has 2.4 million customers, sought and was given a nearly 25% rate increase for its customers. PSE&G has 1.9 million gas customers.

    “The rate increase responds to the 200% increase in natural gas prices,” PSE&G spokeswoman Lauren Ugorji said in a statement.

    “World events and increased demand have led to significant volatility in the natural gas commodity markets, putting upward pressure on the supply charge,” she said. “The … (increased) rate reflects the actual cost utilities pay for natural gas, and utilities do not make any money on the supply charge.”

    The latter was stressed by BPU President Joseph L. Fiordaliso, who added that utilities — by law — are allowed to recover losses from their customers when the price of gas increases.

    “The utilities do not profit from today’s action,” he said. “We very seriously consider every petition that comes into our office, in particular the impact that that position has on our ratepayers.”

    Fiordaliso added: “As unfortunate as it is to have to vote for these rate increases, I want to remind everyone — particularly to those listening — that there are incentives and programs available to assist with your gas and electric bill.”

    Customers should contact their utility company to see if they qualify for assistance, BPU officials said.

    Gov. Phil Murphy said Friday state officials will look into how they can offset the increases.

    ”All of us are concerned about sticker shock right now, whether it’s supply chain, energy, health care costs,” Murphy said after an unrelated event in South Amboy.

    “We’re spending the overwhelming bulk of our time focused on affordability generally and those very issues. You look at what’s happening across the Atlantic, and it’s even far more acute. We’re not immune to it. We’re gonna look at every way we can to figure out how we can mitigate these increases.”

    Officials from New Jersey Natural Gas, which has more than 560,000 customers — primarily in Monmouth, Ocean and Morris Counties — noted that between May 2021 and May 2022 (when it submitted the filing that was approved on Wednesday) wholesale natural gas prices have skyrocketed.

    New Jersey Natural Gas customers on average will see rates go up by 15.8%.

    “No one wants prices to go up, which is why NJNG works year-round to manage our natural gas supply portfolio to help mitigate the impact of increases of the cost of gas on our customers. We continue to monitor market conditions and will look for opportunities to lower costs and pass the benefits on to our customers,” said Kevin Roberts, a spokesman for New Jersey Natural Gas.

    For the more than 300,000 residential, commercial and industrial customers of Elizabethtown Gas — in parts of Union, Middlesex, Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris and Mercer counties — rates will rise on average by 22.9%.

    South Jersey Gas serves more than 400,000 residential, commercial and industrial customers in Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Salem, and portions of Gloucester, Burlington and Camden counties in New Jersey. Customers there will see on average a 18.6% increase.

    South Jersey Industries, which owns both Elizabethtown Gas and South Jersey Gas — said in a statement that the increase was based on the market and the utility company will not profit from it.

    “We do all we can to minimize these increases with financial hedging, seasonal storage supply and structured commodity purchasing strategies while maintaining a reliable and cost-effective supply to our customers,” said spokeswoman Krystle Straus. “To help customers save energy and money, we offer a variety of energy-efficiency programs.”

  92. 3b says:

    Mike: I am at my desk at home by 7:15, without the wasted commute.

  93. Phoenix says:

    Freedom isn’t Free.

    Time to pony up for the American led war in Ukraine. FREEDOM ISN’T FREE.

    Q-Tip said so.

    “Millions of New Jerseyans’ energy bills will soon spike by as much as 25% as winter approaches.
    The state Board of Public Utilities unanimously approved the rate hikes for natural gas on Wednesday after companies argued its rising cost forced them to raise prices for their customers up and down the state.”

  94. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How long have I spoke about the real enemy at the gate on this blog. Fed is in a very very tough position where they are really at war with deflation, but had a little side operation with inflation. That’s the damn truth and why they initially used the word “transitory” to describe it. They know it was never sustainable because the real war is with deflation.

    Juice Box says:
    September 10, 2022 at 11:56 am
    Elon Musk @elonmusk

    A major Fed rate hike risks deflation

  95. Phoenix says:

    Mike: I am at my desk at home by 7:15, without the wasted commute.

    And I would like to answer the phone and instruct you on how to perform CPR on yourself or explain to you how you can remove your own gallbladder in your kitchen from my desk.

    And not have to pay for fuel, insurance, and the inability to write off my mileage.
    Taxing someone for the “privilege” of going to work is counterproductive. It’s insulting.

    Better yet, tax passive income at the same rate as earned income.

    Now that would be a hoot.

    America used to dump tea in the harbor, now everyone is into teabagging.

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    For a guy that is smart, you know how this ends. Don’t mistaken a short term trend and think it applies long-term. WFH is impossible to manage people and squeeze the most productivity out of them. In person, there is no f’ing hiding unless chit management allows for themselves to be taken advantage by workers.

    Libturd says:
    September 10, 2022 at 1:04 pm
    Of the 3 WFHs in my place, one has gone back to work 3 days every two weeks and probably cutting back to 1 day per week. Fed job. Gator and I are still WFH full time. Don’t count your chickens or is that turkeys, as in turkey homes.

  97. Phoenix says:

    “increase was based on the market and the utility company will not profit from it.”

    The market?

    Or compressing it and shipping it to Europe and creating more demand just because America needed to push NATO crap where it wasn’t needed, and because some other country wanted to profit off something it wasn’t producing itself.

    It’s all fun and games till it isn’t.

    Q-Tip is a dolt.

  98. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And don’t think for one second that the majority of workers aren’t trying to take advantage of their employers…human nature is a bitch. WFH allows the majority to fake it like no other. No coincidence that “quiet quitting” is en vogue at the moment. WFH spawned this chit work ethic. It makes people lazy.

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    DNA mofo’s!!

    @rileyraygriffin with the scoop:

    “The draft order lays out a strategy to bolster domestic manufacturing that harnesses biological systems to create a sweeping array of products and materials, from new medicines and human tissues to biofuels”



  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    President Joe Biden is poised to☣️sign an executive order☣️to help expand US biomanufacturing & reduce reliance on China, according to people familiar with the matter.

    More on the US push to secure its supply chain for bio-based products, here:… @bpolitics

  101. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Human nature is a bitch.

    “I have an extreme dislike for the wealthy vs rich debates that take place on this app”

    “CHARLIE MUNGER: the reason it creates tension is that people are not really motivated by greed. They’re motivated by envy. It’s the nature of our species that we look around us at other people and are envious of them if they have more than we do.”

    “And that envy has always been a big problem. That’s the reason the laws of Moses said you couldn’t envy the neighbor’s wife. You couldn’t envy her neighbor’s land.”

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I am old enough now and have tasted money enough to take up the opinion that I don’t care about money. All I care is about having a comfortable roof over my head, food, and a general comfortable setting. The rest is noise.

  103. RentL0rd says:

    Looked at a house today that had an elaborate geo thermal heating/cooling system. Does anyone here have experience with it?

    I understand it’s a huge up-front cost, but any idea on maintenance? Does it need regular servicing? Any gotcha’s?

    It also has an adjacent wetland – that’s not really “wet”. Would it be a mosquito nightmare? The house has a lot of positives.. but also an equal number of negatives.

    Curious to see if folks here have first hand experience with these two “issues”.

  104. Hughesrep says:

    Geothermal works off of the same principal as a heat pump. Assuming it’s set up right your maintainable costs are pretty negligible in terms of the big things. Two types, pump and dump or closed loop. Closed loop in the standard unless its next to a lake or something.

    The big cost is the loop which isn’t likely to go bad. Maintenance costs would most likely be the regular filters for the air handlers, the occasional fan motor, boards, switches electronic components etc. Controls, compressors etc for the outdoor unit. Same as a furnace or AC system, maybe a bit more costly because not as many contractors work on those.

    You’re also pumping water into and out of the system so annual inspections on the pumps is a good idea, those will go once in a while.

    Geothermal is great except for the big upfront cost, and around here it usually won’t be able to keep up on a handful of the coldest days of the year, but that’s true of almost all heat pumps. They usually have auxiliary heat such as electric strip heat built into the air handler, or a gas or oil furnace instead of an air handler used to supplement heating on those really bitterly cold days.

  105. RentL0rd says:

    Thank you for the details @Hughesrep!

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